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General Category => Off the Record => Topic started by: crazy canuck on March 14, 2012, 01:41:48 PM

Title: Confusion - is the earth warming or cooling?
Post by: crazy canuck on March 14, 2012, 01:41:48 PM
Hans, aside there appears to be a significant scientific consensus that the Earth has been warming and that carbon emissions have something to do with that.

But I have recently heard interviews of what appear to be respected scientists (on the CBC no less) who hold the view that while all that is true we are probably going to experience global cooling over the next few decades because of something to do with the Sun and that the warming projections are likely wrong.

What is one to make of it all?

Here is the link to the podcast of CBC interviews I was talking about - the were from a segment on the "Ideas" show called "Demon Coal"

http://itunes.apple.com/podcast/ideas-from-cbc-radio-highlights/id151485663
Title: Re: Confusion - is the earth warming or cooling?
Post by: derspiess on March 14, 2012, 01:50:49 PM
Whatever the case, we need to make sure there is never any climate change of any sort. Everything must remain exactly as it is.  Or else the earth may explode or something.
Title: Re: Confusion - is the earth warming or cooling?
Post by: viper37 on March 14, 2012, 03:26:24 PM
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Global_cooling#1990s
Title: Re: Confusion - is the earth warming or cooling?
Post by: St Ulfsten on March 14, 2012, 03:31:35 PM
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IQHqgdvXTxE&feature=plcp&context=C475635aVDvjVQa1PpcFNY7__pqUrM0itmSqS3pNpZIfjTKNpWhcI=

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kmECHrOcFlc&list=PLA4F0994AFB057BB8&index=11&feature=plpp_video

One of these two also has a video about how some scientists are saying we might see short term cooling (but long term warming) and how this had led the deniers to scream about how climate science is a hoax etc etc, but I can't find it now
Title: Re: Confusion - is the earth warming or cooling?
Post by: derspiess on March 14, 2012, 03:35:17 PM
Quote from: St Ulfsten on March 14, 2012, 03:31:35 PM
One of these two also has a video about how some scientists are saying we might see short term cooling (but long term warming)

That sounds like a cute way to hedge your bets.
Title: Re: Confusion - is the earth warming or cooling?
Post by: crazy canuck on March 14, 2012, 04:15:55 PM
Quote from: St Ulfsten on March 14, 2012, 03:31:35 PMOne of these two also has a video about how some scientists are saying we might see short term cooling (but long term warming) and how this had led the deniers to scream about how climate science is a hoax etc etc, but I can't find it now

I wonder if you are thinking about this article

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/sciencetech/article-2093264/Forget-global-warming--Cycle-25-need-worry-NASA-scientists-right-Thames-freezing-again.html

which says in part

QuoteShe argued it is becoming evident that factors other than CO2 play an important role in rising or falling warmth, such as the 60-year water temperature cycles in the Pacific and Atlantic oceans.

'They have insufficiently been appreciated in terms of global climate,' said Prof Curry. When both oceans were cold in the past, such as from 1940 to 1970, the climate cooled. The Pacific cycle 'flipped' back from warm to cold mode in 2008 and the Atlantic is also thought likely to flip in the next few years .

Pal Brekke, senior adviser at the Norwegian Space Centre, said some scientists found the importance of water cycles difficult to accept, because doing so means admitting that the oceans – not CO2 – caused much of the global warming between 1970 and 1997.

The same goes for the impact of the sun – which was highly active for much of the 20th Century.
'Nature is about to carry out a very interesting experiment,' he said. 'Ten or 15 years from now, we will be able to determine much better whether the warming of the late 20th Century really was caused by man-made CO2, or by natural variability.'
Meanwhile, since the end of last year, world temperatures have fallen by more than half a degree, as the cold 'La Nina' effect has re-emerged in the South Pacific.

'We're now well into the second decade of the pause,' said Benny Peiser, director of the Global Warming Policy Foundation. 'If we don't see convincing evidence of global warming by 2015, it will start to become clear whether the models are bunk. And, if they are, the implications for some scientists could be very serious.'
Title: Re: Confusion - is the earth warming or cooling?
Post by: garbon on March 14, 2012, 04:32:07 PM
Might as well just wait with a tub of popcorn then.
Title: Re: Confusion - is the earth warming or cooling?
Post by: Razgovory on March 14, 2012, 04:50:06 PM
Quote from: derspiess on March 14, 2012, 03:35:17 PM
Quote from: St Ulfsten on March 14, 2012, 03:31:35 PM
One of these two also has a video about how some scientists are saying we might see short term cooling (but long term warming)

That sounds like a cute way to hedge your bets.

I wonder if you and other Republicans would be more receptive to arguments of global climate change if scientists thought there caused by public sector unions.
Title: Re: Confusion - is the earth warming or cooling?
Post by: Sheilbh on March 14, 2012, 05:02:07 PM
Quote from: derspiess on March 14, 2012, 03:35:17 PM
Quote from: St Ulfsten on March 14, 2012, 03:31:35 PM
One of these two also has a video about how some scientists are saying we might see short term cooling (but long term warming)

That sounds like a cute way to hedge your bets.
That makes sense.  My understanding is that the earth's temperature has been increasing.  That that's an observable fact.  But within that general warning there could be periods of cooling.

There's a dispute about what's causing it and, indeed, whether it's good or bad.  There's also a whole range of fair argument on what we do politically.
Title: Re: Confusion - is the earth warming or cooling?
Post by: The Minsky Moment on March 14, 2012, 05:25:58 PM
Quote from: derspiess on March 14, 2012, 03:35:17 PM
Quote from: St Ulfsten on March 14, 2012, 03:31:35 PM
One of these two also has a video about how some scientists are saying we might see short term cooling (but long term warming)

That sounds like a cute way to hedge your bets.

In science, it's called a hypothesis based on observation and inference.
I understand you may find these concepts confusing.
Title: Re: Confusion - is the earth warming or cooling?
Post by: Josquius on March 14, 2012, 07:27:39 PM
People are still denying climate change? Pfff.....

IIRC doesn't the sun go through....12 (IIRC) year cycles?
The past two years have been in the pit of one.

If there is a greater cycle over the next few decades....then awesome. Lets us off the hook a little on warming and gives us time to make the switch over to renewables- a wise idea anyway, even without global warming.
Title: Re: Confusion - is the earth warming or cooling?
Post by: Tamas on March 15, 2012, 03:02:12 AM
Quote from: Tyr on March 14, 2012, 07:27:39 PM
People are still denying climate change? Pfff.....

IIRC doesn't the sun go through....12 (IIRC) year cycles?
The past two years have been in the pit of one.

If there is a greater cycle over the next few decades....then awesome. Lets us off the hook a little on warming and gives us time to make the switch over to renewables- a wise idea anyway, even without global warming.

What we need is cold fusion :contract:

I don't even get this... People seriously believe that we can replace the insane amount of energy generated by various polluting power plants, with the use of giant windmills and solar panels?
Title: Re: Confusion - is the earth warming or cooling?
Post by: Pedrito on March 15, 2012, 03:07:10 AM
Quote from: St Ulfsten on March 14, 2012, 03:31:35 PM
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IQHqgdvXTxE&feature=plcp&context=C475635aVDvjVQa1PpcFNY7__pqUrM0itmSqS3pNpZIfjTKNpWhcI=

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kmECHrOcFlc&list=PLA4F0994AFB057BB8&index=11&feature=plpp_video

One of these two also has a video about how some scientists are saying we might see short term cooling (but long term warming) and how this had led the deniers to scream about how climate science is a hoax etc etc, but I can't find it now

But... Who the Fuck Are You?

L.
Title: Re: Confusion - is the earth warming or cooling?
Post by: Josquius on March 15, 2012, 03:41:35 AM
Quote from: Tamas on March 15, 2012, 03:02:12 AM
What we need is cold fusion :contract:

I don't even get this... People seriously believe that we can replace the insane amount of energy generated by various polluting power plants, with the use of giant windmills and solar panels?

No
Title: Re: Confusion - is the earth warming or cooling?
Post by: Razgovory on March 15, 2012, 03:58:07 AM
Quote from: Tamas on March 15, 2012, 03:02:12 AM
Quote from: Tyr on March 14, 2012, 07:27:39 PM
People are still denying climate change? Pfff.....

IIRC doesn't the sun go through....12 (IIRC) year cycles?
The past two years have been in the pit of one.

If there is a greater cycle over the next few decades....then awesome. Lets us off the hook a little on warming and gives us time to make the switch over to renewables- a wise idea anyway, even without global warming.

What we need is cold fusion :contract:

I don't even get this... People seriously believe that we can replace the insane amount of energy generated by various polluting power plants, with the use of giant windmills and solar panels?

You could have just said we need magic.
Title: Re: Confusion - is the earth warming or cooling?
Post by: Tamas on March 15, 2012, 04:05:30 AM
Heh. It will happen eventually.
Title: Re: Confusion - is the earth warming or cooling?
Post by: Razgovory on March 15, 2012, 04:06:08 AM
Quote from: Tamas on March 15, 2012, 04:05:30 AM
Heh. It will happen eventually.

So will the second coming.  Want to make bets on which happens first?
Title: Re: Confusion - is the earth warming or cooling?
Post by: Tamas on March 15, 2012, 04:59:37 AM
Well, good point. What would we do without establishedly impossible technical innovations? These truths are the very backbone of our society. Like, everyone knows nothing heavier than air can fly.
Title: Re: Confusion - is the earth warming or cooling?
Post by: Strix on March 15, 2012, 01:13:26 PM
They are always going back and forth on the issue.

In the 80's we were supposed to be headed to the next ice age than came the 90's and we are headed to the gradual warming of the Earth until no life can exist. It would make sense that the pendulum is starting to swing back to cooling.
Title: Re: Confusion - is the earth warming or cooling?
Post by: Eddie Teach on March 15, 2012, 01:30:57 PM
Depends which side of the equator you're on. In Canada, it should be warming right now.  :P
Title: Re: Confusion - is the earth warming or cooling?
Post by: Razgovory on March 15, 2012, 01:33:22 PM
Quote from: Strix on March 15, 2012, 01:13:26 PM
They are always going back and forth on the issue.

In the 80's we were supposed to be headed to the next ice age than came the 90's and we are headed to the gradual warming of the Earth until no life can exist. It would make sense that the pendulum is starting to swing back to cooling.

That's nothing.  Back in the 1980's people were suggesting that you could connect to a worldwide network of computers by using a phone line.  By the 2000's that idea had been pretty much ditched in favor of using cable or DSL.  Perhaps the pendulum will swing back.
Title: Re: Confusion - is the earth warming or cooling?
Post by: Josephus on March 15, 2012, 01:50:50 PM
What's a phone line?
Title: Re: Confusion - is the earth warming or cooling?
Post by: Razgovory on March 15, 2012, 01:52:24 PM
Quote from: Josephus on March 15, 2012, 01:50:50 PM
What's a phone line?

I'm not sure, but I think it's the part of a phone that connects the receiver to the rotary thingy.
Title: Re: Confusion - is the earth warming or cooling?
Post by: jimmy olsen on March 15, 2012, 11:51:49 PM
Gonna be a hot year.

http://usnews.msnbc.msn.com/_news/2012/03/15/10704138-warming-up-mighty-early-across-parts-of-us
Title: Re: Confusion - is the earth warming or cooling?
Post by: Zoupa on March 16, 2012, 12:34:26 AM
Quote from: derspiess on March 14, 2012, 03:35:17 PM
Quote from: St Ulfsten on March 14, 2012, 03:31:35 PM
One of these two also has a video about how some scientists are saying we might see short term cooling (but long term warming)

That sounds like a cute way to hedge your bets.

Sounds like you need to stick to your day job.  :console:
Title: Re: Confusion - is the earth warming or cooling?
Post by: viper37 on March 16, 2012, 10:10:41 AM
Quote from: Strix on March 15, 2012, 01:13:26 PM
They are always going back and forth on the issue.

In the 80's we were supposed to be headed to the next ice age than came the 90's and we are headed to the gradual warming of the Earth until no life can exist. It would make sense that the pendulum is starting to swing back to cooling.
there was never any serious science in the 80s, or even the 70s about global cooling.
Afaik, I've learned of global warming in the 80s, while in high school.
Title: Re: Confusion - is the earth warming or cooling?
Post by: Strix on March 16, 2012, 11:28:58 AM
Quote from: Razgovory on March 15, 2012, 01:33:22 PM
Quote from: Strix on March 15, 2012, 01:13:26 PM
They are always going back and forth on the issue.

In the 80's we were supposed to be headed to the next ice age than came the 90's and we are headed to the gradual warming of the Earth until no life can exist. It would make sense that the pendulum is starting to swing back to cooling.

That's nothing.  Back in the 1980's people were suggesting that you could connect to a worldwide network of computers by using a phone line.  By the 2000's that idea had been pretty much ditched in favor of using cable or DSL.  Perhaps the pendulum will swing back.

Is that all you got?
Title: Re: Confusion - is the earth warming or cooling?
Post by: Valmy on March 16, 2012, 11:33:03 AM
Quote from: Strix on March 16, 2012, 11:28:58 AMIs that all you got?

I was sort of thinking the same thing about you.  I am sure somebody is claiming that the next ice age is upon us and global warming will actually increase until we all burn up but somebody somewhere is claiming something.  I have not really heard this as being claimed by anybody credible.
Title: Re: Confusion - is the earth warming or cooling?
Post by: PDH on March 16, 2012, 11:45:15 AM
Why can't the Earth be doing both at the same time?
Title: Re: Confusion - is the earth warming or cooling?
Post by: Strix on March 16, 2012, 11:53:35 AM
Quote from: Valmy on March 16, 2012, 11:33:03 AM
Quote from: Strix on March 16, 2012, 11:28:58 AMIs that all you got?

I was sort of thinking the same thing about you.  I am sure somebody is claiming that the next ice age is upon us and global warming will actually increase until we all burn up but somebody somewhere is claiming something.  I have not really heard this as being claimed by anybody credible.

I suppose you can dismiss the entire scientific community? Yes, the same people claiming global warming were pretty much the same people claiming global cooling back in the 70's and 80's. They did a great flim-flam job which needs to be applauded. It will be interesting to see what new theory they come up with in the coming decade and what smoke and mirror show they will pull so that it all fits together nicely.

Title: Re: Confusion - is the earth warming or cooling?
Post by: Gups on March 16, 2012, 12:36:40 PM
Quote from: Strix on March 16, 2012, 11:53:35 AM
I suppose you can dismiss the entire scientific community? Yes, the same people claiming global warming were pretty much the same people claiming global cooling back in the 70's and 80's. They did a great flim-flam job which needs to be applauded. It will be interesting to see what new theory they come up with in the coming decade and what smoke and mirror show they will pull so that it all fits together nicely.

This just isn't true. A few scientists did notice that there had been a slight downward trend in global tempratures. This got picked up by the media who ran the global cooling stories but the bulk of the scientific community disagreed.

 
Title: Re: Confusion - is the earth warming or cooling?
Post by: Strix on March 16, 2012, 01:08:09 PM
Quote from: Gups on March 16, 2012, 12:36:40 PM
Quote from: Strix on March 16, 2012, 11:53:35 AM
I suppose you can dismiss the entire scientific community? Yes, the same people claiming global warming were pretty much the same people claiming global cooling back in the 70's and 80's. They did a great flim-flam job which needs to be applauded. It will be interesting to see what new theory they come up with in the coming decade and what smoke and mirror show they will pull so that it all fits together nicely.

This just isn't true. A few scientists did notice that there had been a slight downward trend in global tempratures. This got picked up by the media who ran the global cooling stories but the bulk of the scientific community disagreed.



I learned about global freezing in High School, so it was more than just "a few scientists".
Title: Re: Confusion - is the earth warming or cooling?
Post by: mongers on March 16, 2012, 01:58:40 PM
Quote from: Strix on March 16, 2012, 01:08:09 PM
Quote from: Gups on March 16, 2012, 12:36:40 PM
Quote from: Strix on March 16, 2012, 11:53:35 AM
I suppose you can dismiss the entire scientific community? Yes, the same people claiming global warming were pretty much the same people claiming global cooling back in the 70's and 80's. They did a great flim-flam job which needs to be applauded. It will be interesting to see what new theory they come up with in the coming decade and what smoke and mirror show they will pull so that it all fits together nicely.

This just isn't true. A few scientists did notice that there had been a slight downward trend in global tempratures. This got picked up by the media who ran the global cooling stories but the bulk of the scientific community disagreed.



I learned about global freezing in High School, so it was more than just "a few scientists".

http://www.skepticalscience.com/ice-age-predictions-in-1970s.htm (http://www.skepticalscience.com/ice-age-predictions-in-1970s.htm)

(https://languish.org/forums/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.skepticalscience.com%2Fpics%2FGlobalCooling.JPG&hash=da71e624c78a50a20e5fcb8eec3142cbc2eb3b84)
Title: Re: Confusion - is the earth warming or cooling?
Post by: Barrister on March 16, 2012, 02:05:00 PM
Quote from: Strix on March 16, 2012, 01:08:09 PM
Quote from: Gups on March 16, 2012, 12:36:40 PM
Quote from: Strix on March 16, 2012, 11:53:35 AM
I suppose you can dismiss the entire scientific community? Yes, the same people claiming global warming were pretty much the same people claiming global cooling back in the 70's and 80's. They did a great flim-flam job which needs to be applauded. It will be interesting to see what new theory they come up with in the coming decade and what smoke and mirror show they will pull so that it all fits together nicely.

This just isn't true. A few scientists did notice that there had been a slight downward trend in global tempratures. This got picked up by the media who ran the global cooling stories but the bulk of the scientific community disagreed.



I learned about global freezing in High School, so it was more than just "a few scientists".

What kind of high school did you attend?

While I heard of the theory of global cooling / new ice age in high school as well, it was definitely in the "past tense", as in "back in the 70s people worried about a new ice age, but now the evidence shows..." and I graduated high school in the distant past of 1992.
Title: Re: Confusion - is the earth warming or cooling?
Post by: The Brain on March 16, 2012, 02:11:48 PM
Good coolies are hard to find these days.
Title: Re: Confusion - is the earth warming or cooling?
Post by: viper37 on March 16, 2012, 02:15:14 PM
Quote from: Strix on March 16, 2012, 01:08:09 PM
Quote from: Gups on March 16, 2012, 12:36:40 PM
Quote from: Strix on March 16, 2012, 11:53:35 AM
I suppose you can dismiss the entire scientific community? Yes, the same people claiming global warming were pretty much the same people claiming global cooling back in the 70's and 80's. They did a great flim-flam job which needs to be applauded. It will be interesting to see what new theory they come up with in the coming decade and what smoke and mirror show they will pull so that it all fits together nicely.

This just isn't true. A few scientists did notice that there had been a slight downward trend in global tempratures. This got picked up by the media who ran the global cooling stories but the bulk of the scientific community disagreed.



I learned about global freezing in High School, so it was more than just "a few scientists".
In some places, they teach about Intelligent Design in high schools...
Title: Re: Confusion - is the earth warming or cooling?
Post by: PDH on March 16, 2012, 02:48:44 PM
Perhaps the Earth Science classes at Saint Exxon's Academy weren't of the highest standards?
Title: Re: Confusion - is the earth warming or cooling?
Post by: CountDeMoney on March 16, 2012, 02:51:47 PM
Quote from: Barrister on March 16, 2012, 02:05:00 PM
Quote from: Strix on March 16, 2012, 01:08:09 PM
I learned about global freezing in High School, so it was more than just "a few scientists".

What kind of high school did you attend?

Richard Bruce Cheney HS.
Title: Re: Confusion - is the earth warming or cooling?
Post by: Razgovory on March 16, 2012, 03:03:29 PM
Quote from: Strix on March 16, 2012, 01:08:09 PM

I learned about global freezing in High School, so it was more than just "a few scientists".

Well, I'll be damned.  That's pretty good evidence.  You learned in High School back in the 1970's.  That trumps any kind of scientific opinion in 2012.
Title: Re: Confusion - is the earth warming or cooling?
Post by: Strix on March 16, 2012, 03:40:35 PM
Quote from: Barrister on March 16, 2012, 02:05:00 PM
Quote from: Strix on March 16, 2012, 01:08:09 PM
Quote from: Gups on March 16, 2012, 12:36:40 PM
Quote from: Strix on March 16, 2012, 11:53:35 AM
I suppose you can dismiss the entire scientific community? Yes, the same people claiming global warming were pretty much the same people claiming global cooling back in the 70's and 80's. They did a great flim-flam job which needs to be applauded. It will be interesting to see what new theory they come up with in the coming decade and what smoke and mirror show they will pull so that it all fits together nicely.

This just isn't true. A few scientists did notice that there had been a slight downward trend in global tempratures. This got picked up by the media who ran the global cooling stories but the bulk of the scientific community disagreed.



I learned about global freezing in High School, so it was more than just "a few scientists".

What kind of high school did you attend?

While I heard of the theory of global cooling / new ice age in high school as well, it was definitely in the "past tense", as in "back in the 70s people worried about a new ice age, but now the evidence shows..." and I graduated high school in the distant past of 1992.

No one is saying that the Earth isn't getting warmer. So, I am not sure about your point. I was commenting on the fact that in the 70's/80's global cooling was the big thing (well, actually Nuclear Winter was the BIG THING but that had nothing to do with the climate prior to a nuclear war) and in the 90's/00's it was (is) global warming but now it appears that some scientists are bringing back the concept of global cooling again...

No one is arguing that climate change hasn't been happening. Just pointing out that the "experts" keep changing their theories. There is nothing wrong with that until people go all "religious zealot" over anyone suggesting that the current pet theory isn't the end all/be all of climate change.

I went to a High School in a small upstate New York city. The fact that they actually taught global cooling at all shows that is was a widely looked at and accepted idea at the time. That is according to the State officials who determined the texts and course matter, so don't shoot the messenger.

To me, "climate change" is like the "sweetner" debate. It swings back and forth with lots of science that doesn't prove anything i.e. Saccharine is better than sugar...no it will give you cancer...oh wait, it won't unless you eats 5 pounds a day and are a rat...oh nevermind, it leads to diabetes. You get the idea? Science has become the biggest flim-flam game around. It's easy to bewilder the minds of those like Raz with numbers, absolutes, and doomsday predictions but the science doesn't pan out...there is no end all/be all to climate change at this time.
Title: Re: Confusion - is the earth warming or cooling?
Post by: Barrister on March 16, 2012, 03:43:43 PM
*sigh*
Title: Re: Confusion - is the earth warming or cooling?
Post by: Razgovory on March 16, 2012, 03:45:23 PM
Quote from: Strix on March 16, 2012, 03:40:35 PM


No one is saying that the Earth isn't getting warmer.

I only got this far.  I found a major error in post at this point.  Please fix this error and repost.  Thank you.