Languish.org

Very interesting, I have a hard time envisioning the collapse taking even six months though.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-middle-east-17088270

QuoteSyria 'disintegrating under crippling sanctions'
Free Syrian Army members in Idlib, 18 Feb The 11-month uprising against Mr Assad has claimed thousands of lives

One of Syria's leading businessmen says its economy is being crippled by foreign sanctions and that the government is slowly disintegrating.
Faisal al-Qudsi, the son of a former Syrian president, told the BBC the military action could only last six months and then there would be "millions of people on the streets".

But he said President Bashar al-Assad's government would fight to the end.

The 11-month uprising against Mr Assad has claimed thousands of lives.

Human rights groups have put the figure at more than 7,000, while the government says at least 2,000 members of the security forces have been killed combating "armed gangs and terrorists".

The violence continued on Saturday, when Syrian troops fired on mourners during a funeral that turned into a mass demonstration in Damascus. Activists say at least one person was killed there and some 20 across the country.
'Catch 22'

Speaking to the BBC's Weekend World Today programme, Mr Qudsi said the economy had been crippled by sanctions and that although Iran was sending money, it was not enough.

Mr Qudsi now chairs a London-based investment banking firm and has been heavily involved in private sector investment in Syria.

He said the uprising had destroyed tourism and the sanctions on exports of oil and other products had dramatically reduced the gross domestic product.

"So, effectively the foreign exchange reserves of the central bank have come down from $22bn (£14bn) to about $10bn and it is dwindling very rapidly," Mr Qudsi said.

He said the military phase against protesters could only last another six months "because the army is getting tired and will go nowhere".

"They will have to sit and talk or at least they have to stop killing. And the minute they stop killing, more millions of people will be on the streets. So they are in a Catch 22."

He added: "The apparatus of the government is slowly disintegrating and it's almost non-existent in trouble spots like Homs, Idlib, Deraa. Courts are not there; police are not interested in any sort of crime and it is affecting the government very, very badly."

But Mr Qudsi said Mr Assad would fight to the end because he and his supporters think there is "a universal conspiracy against the government of Syria".

Meanwhile activists say government forces continue to build around the city of Homs, with shelling of the district of Baba Amr resuming on Sunday, targeting hundreds of opposition fighters holed up there.

Our correspondent, Jim Muir, says human rights groups fear a massacre there if a full ground assault is launched.

Also on Sunday, the Sana news agency reported that gunmen had opened fire on a car carrying two key officials in the northern state of Idlib, prosecutor Nidal Ghazal and judge Mohammed Ziadeh, killing both of them and their driver.

Activists said state security forces had opened fire on the car.

Meanwhile UK Foreign Secretary William Hague again called for President Assad to step down.

He said he feared the country was "going to slide into a civil war" and criticised Russia and China for failing to back a UN Security Council resolution.

Egypt on Sunday became the latest country to withdraw its ambassador from Syria, "until further notice".
Referendum

Violence has continued across the country despite the presence in Damascus of Chinese envoy Zhai Jun.

Mr Zhai met several opposition figures in the capital on Saturday, but our correspondent says one told Mr Zhai that although they were ready for dialogue if it were serious, they believed the regime had lost all credibility.

Our correspondent says the violence at Saturday's funeral in Mezzeh, on the edge of Damascus, was serious as it was so close to the centre of government.

video

The BBC's Jim Muir: "We're told security forces opened fire on Saturday." This footage has not been verified.

The shooting occurred at a funeral for people killed during a protest against President Assad on Friday.

The funeral procession turned into one of the biggest demonstrations the capital has seen, with thousands of people chanting slogans calling for an end to the Assad regime.

Syria restricts access to foreign media and it is often not possible to verify some reports and casualty figures.

Mr Zhai had earlier held talks with President Assad.

Mr Zhai called for all sides to end the violence immediately.

Mr Assad is pressing on with his plan for a referendum on a new constitution, followed by elections.

However, the opposition has called for a boycott of the 26 February referendum, saying it cannot be held while violence continues.

QuoteAnalysis
Jim Muir BBC News, Beirut

Mr Qudsi's dire assessment of the Syrian regime's situation is significant coming from such a source.

He has a strong background both in politics and the economy. The family's roots are in Aleppo, the northern commercial centre. His father was president of Syria from 1961-3. Mr Qudsi, an international investment manager, has been deeply involved in private-sector projects in Syria.

One of the regime's pillars of support has been the Sunni business and middle classes and merchants, because of the stability it appeared to offer against the uncertainties raised by regime change. Now Mr Qudsi says the regime is rapidly losing that support.

If he is right and the middle classes end up turning against President Assad as the economy collapses, bringing millions on to the streets of Damascus and Aleppo, the regime's fate will be sealed. But Mr Qudsi also believes the regime will fight to its last gasp, and nobody knows how long that might take.

Quote from: jimmy olsen on February 19, 2012, 06:45:58 AM
Very interesting, I have a hard time envisioning the collapse taking even six months though.

I'm sure Mr. al-Assad sleeps better at night know that.  Tard.

so, this is good news, right?

How could it not be? A dictatorship will fall.  Everyone will be happier.

well, not even the dictatorship falling. if it lasted another couple of years and there was still perpetual internal violence, it would be a good thing

Well the regime has to fight to the last gasp.  There won't be any cushy exile awaiting the Assad's and their Alawite relations.  The Sunni will line them up and shoot them, assuming they don't accidentally all commit suicide while awaiting trial. 

Quote from: Darth Wagtaros on February 19, 2012, 09:02:46 AM
Well the regime has to fight to the last gasp.  There won't be any cushy exile awaiting the Assad's and their Alawite relations.  The Sunni will line them up and shoot them, assuming they don't accidentally all commit suicide while awaiting trial.

the old regime has several loyal regiments available; loyal supporters in all. it will be difficult to simply line them up. it may, in fact, take months or a year or even longer before they are destroyed. this is all quite excellent, non?  :)

Syria has large amounts of WMDs and other weapons, explosives, etc. Al Qaida is reported to be infiltrating among the protesters. If the govt falls, one worry has to be what will become of all those weapons? I think Syria has a lot more weapons than Libya had, certainly a much larger population and military. Does anyone know of or read anything on what happened with Libya's weapons, explosives, etc? I don't know if Libya had any WMDs.

Syria likley had some chemical weapons, and maybe some sort of bio weapons.  They do have a huge military, and lot's of equipment, however, a lot of it is older.

If we weren't so obsessed with the status quo, the Sec. Council could give Turkey the greenlight to move in and do with the country as it sees fit.

Quote from: Tamas on February 19, 2012, 01:03:13 PM
If we weren't so obsessed with the status quo, the Sec. Council could give Turkey the greenlight to move in and do with the country as it sees fit.

lol can i be: Ottoman Empire?

I don't have any faith in the Turkish military. Syria should become the 51st state and provide us with cheap baklava.

Perhaps the Arab League will send a few divisions to quell the violence.

 Yeah right! :lol:

Quote from: Darth Wagtaros on February 19, 2012, 02:38:19 PM
Perhaps the Arab League will send a few divisions to quell the violence.

Sad but all of this was only humanized for me when I watched Sunday's The Good Wife which dealt with the Syrian revolts.  Partly myself to blame but I think also the nature of news articles to be so overwhelming negative/number focused that it is easy to forget the humanity and wasted life in all of this.  Too easy to say fucked up thing happening in fucked up company. :(

So what's the best thing for the US/West?  On a base level I'd love to get rid of Assad and end all of Syria's shenanigans with sponsoring terrorism, cozying up to Iran, etc.

But if he & his Allawite buddies fall, in immediate terms I fear for the Christian minority as well as the Kurds.  Past that, there's a good chance we'll get a Sunni regime that is no more friendly to the US & sponsors other terrorist groups.

Maybe a prolonged conflict will keep both sides distracted for a while :mellow:

Quote from: derspiess on February 21, 2012, 12:52:37 PM
So what's the best thing for the US/West?  On a base level I'd love to get rid of Assad and end all of Syria's shenanigans with sponsoring terrorism, cozying up to Iran, etc.

But if he & his Allawite buddies fall, in immediate terms I fear for the Christian minority as well as the Kurds.  Past that, there's a good chance we'll get a Sunni regime that is no more friendly to the US & sponsors other terrorist groups.

Maybe a prolonged conflict will keep both sides distracted for a while :mellow:

I don't think anyone knows what the best course of action is.  The whole region is full of lunatics.  Nobody know what to do with them.

Fuck Syria. Screw 'em all.

Quote from: Ed Anger on February 21, 2012, 01:25:08 PM
Fuck Syria. Screw 'em all.

This is as good as any answer.  I do wonder if the Iraqi Kurds will intervene if the Syrian Kurds are being molested.

Assad is my wildcard in the 2012 death pool.  :)

The one thing that amuses me about the Syria unrest is that my second-generation Syrian immigrant uncle is pretty much indifferent to it all.  His older siblings (who were born in Syria) always tended to keep cultural traditions & whatnot, but he pretty much ignored it all.

Best course of action is for the Gulf States to buy a lot of weapons for the good guys.  The US continues offering kind words of support and keeps on making Russia and China look bad in the UN.

I was happy to see them burning the Russian flag.  I didn't know anyone elses flag even could burn.

Quote from: Razgovory on February 21, 2012, 02:39:22 PM
I was happy to see them burning the Russian flag.  I didn't know anyone elses flag even could burn.

Israeli flags apparently burn really well (particularly the crudely-made ones with oblong Stars of David).  I believe Danish flags are also flammable.

edit: Oh, and the kind of British flags you can buy these days in Argentina are apparently not flame-proof.

I would support a French mandate of the Syrian provinces. :frog:

Quote from: derspiess on February 21, 2012, 03:50:08 PM

Quote from: Razgovory on February 21, 2012, 02:39:22 PM
I was happy to see them burning the Russian flag.  I didn't know anyone elses flag even could burn.

Israeli flags apparently burn really well (particularly the crudely-made ones with oblong Stars of David).  I believe Danish flags are also flammable.

edit: Oh, and the kind of British flags you can buy these days in Argentina are apparently not flame-proof.

The Argentines and Uruguayans were burning their flags over that bridge.  British flags get burned a lot in Iran too.  German and EU flags have been burned in Greece recently.  It's really quite common.

Quote from: Sheilbh on February 22, 2012, 07:12:03 AM

Quote from: derspiess on February 21, 2012, 03:50:08 PM

Quote from: Razgovory on February 21, 2012, 02:39:22 PM
I was happy to see them burning the Russian flag.  I didn't know anyone elses flag even could burn.

Israeli flags apparently burn really well (particularly the crudely-made ones with oblong Stars of David).  I believe Danish flags are also flammable.

edit: Oh, and the kind of British flags you can buy these days in Argentina are apparently not flame-proof.

The Argentines and Uruguayans were burning their flags over that bridge.  British flags get burned a lot in Iran too.  German and EU flags have been burned in Greece recently.  It's really quite common.

But but but but, our nazis were so proud of themselves recently, for being TEH FIRST EVAH to burn an EU flag :(


Is there any chance for the Mid-East to avoid becoming an extension of Africa (in terms of being a sucky place of constant tribal conflicts nobody else gives a fuck about), without ending up with the Great Powers tangling with each other, inevitable triggering an Archudke Ferdinand event? :(

Quote from: Tamas on February 22, 2012, 07:47:45 AM
Is there any chance for the Mid-East to avoid becoming an extension of Africa (in terms of being a sucky place of constant tribal conflicts nobody else gives a fuck about), without ending up with the Great Powers tangling with each other, inevitable triggering an Archudke Ferdinand event? :(

The success of Africa in the last decade's an unreported story.  Generally the economy's been booming, there's more democracy, measures of quality of life are improving and so are governance indicators.  There's still problems and wars and, you're right, no-one cares.  But from what I've read Africa looks at its most hopeful and optimistic since decolonisation :)

But you're right that Syria's a real worry.  It seems most like the Balkans before WWI.  All the regional powers have a stake and it wouldn't take much to suck them all in.  As Marc Lynch said in an article I posted earlier Syria could well go the way of Lebanon.

QuoteBest course of action is for the Gulf States to buy a lot of weapons for the good guys.  The US continues offering kind words of support and keeps on making Russia and China look bad in the UN.

The good guys are the still overwhelmingly peaceful protesters, whose resilience is incredible.  Syria isn't like Libya at this point, it's not clearly split into an armed revolt and there's still large protests in cities like Damascus and Aleppo.  It's a lot messier.

I'm less clear on who the Free Syrian Army are, the fact that they're apparently receiving a lot of support from the Saudis and the Gulf is more of a worry than a positive.

QuoteMaybe a prolonged conflict will keep both sides distracted for a while

That's a very unpredictable situation though.  The best situation is that the regime collapses and the Assad's leave.  There are several million Alawites living in a mountainous region (once home of the Assassins), with Syria's only ports and that includes a Russian naval base.  I think the worst case scenario for them is becoming like the Kurds in Iraq. 

A prolonged conflict will see more Iranian involvement - as we have no - more Saudi involvement - as we have now - and I think it's probable that the Turks and Israelis would also be in touch with armed groups.  A proxy conflict involving those countries is a rather flammable and certainly shouldn't be something we hope for.

Edit:

QuoteBut but but but, our nazis were so proud of themselves recently, for being TEH FIRST EVAH to burn an EU flag

Oh dear :(

British Tory MPs have burned EU flags back in the nineties.  It's old hat.  But then nazis aren't known for novelty.

Quote from: Sheilbh on February 22, 2012, 08:07:09 AM
The good guys are the still overwhelmingly peaceful protesters, whose resilience is incredible.  Syria isn't like Libya at this point, it's not clearly split into an armed revolt and there's still large protests in cities like Damascus and Aleppo.  It's a lot messier.

That's your protest fetish speaking :P

But seriously, I'm hesitant to grant them the "good guys" label.  It's hard not to sympathize with them given the Syrian government's brutality, but I'll wait & see how they handle being in power if/when it happens.  So far I haven't been too impressed with the "good guys" in Egypt.

QuoteA prolonged conflict will see more Iranian involvement - as we have no - more Saudi involvement - as we have now - and I think it's probable that the Turks and Israelis would also be in touch with armed groups.  A proxy conflict involving those countries is a rather flammable and certainly shouldn't be something we hope for.

It would be volatile and unpredictable, for sure.  Still, I wonder if it wouldn't be nice to have a long, contained, conflict in that region between two groups that both hate us.

 :ph34r:

Quotehttp://security.blogs.cnn.com/2012/02/22/military-thousands-of-troops-needed-to-secure-syrian-chemical-sites/?hpt=hp_t1

Military: Thousands of troops needed to secure Syrian chemical sites

By Barbara Starr

The U.S. military has calculated it could take more than 75,000 ground troops to secure Syria's chemical warfare facilities if they were at risk of being looted or left unguarded, CNN has learned.

The conclusion comes from a military analysis of options for Syria that the Department of Defense is preparing for president should he request it, according to a senior U.S. official.

Securing Syria's chemical sites would be "extraordinarily difficult" given the scope of the problem, a Department of Defense official told CNN.Both officials would only speak on the condition their names not be used because they were talking about military planning.

The U.S. military believes there are 50 chemical weapon and production sites spread across the country with additional storage sites and research centers as well. The cities of Hama, Homs and al Safira, and the port city of Latakia are all believed to house production facilities.

The analysis was provided by the United States' Central Command, which has been considering how the U.S. military would handle potential scenarios should U.S. troops be called in, according to a senior U.S. official with direct knowledge of the situation.

While the number is large - nearly as many as are currently serving in Afghanistan - any actual deployment should it ever come to that would undoubtedly be significantly smaller than the planning suggested. U.S. officials continue to insist the American position is to push for a diplomatic solution.

"In terms of a military action to secure a part of the country, that is not currently a policy we are pursuing," said White House spokesman Jay Carney on Wednesday.

The U.S. intelligence community currently believes Syria's weapons sites are secured by the regime, Director of National Intelligence James Clapper told Congress last week.  But the senior U.S. official who spoke to CNN said the "nightmare scenario" is what would happen if that situation changes and the regime suddenly fall apart, or the fighting gets to the point that the international community believes military intervention is necessary to secure the chemical weapons.

In that type of conflict scenario - in which American or other countries' troops would be entering a hostile environment - air power would also have to be used to destroy Syria's air defenses, which are considered to be capable, the official said. That portion of any campaign could take weeks.

A defense official told CNN's Chris Lawrence last week that while the U.S. "continues to monitor the overall situation in Syria," there are "ongoing discussions specific to the location of, and security around, the various components of their chemical weapons program."

"Syria probably has one of largest programs in the world," said Leonard Specter with the Monterey Institute of International Studies. "It has multiple types of chemical agents." Specter said the stocks include World War I-era gases like chlorine and phosgene as well as more modern nerve gases. 

The United States is paying particular attention to the possibility of the weapons falling into the hands of extremists, in the event the government loses control of certain areas or splinters among itself, the defense official said.

"There would be kind of a vacuum that would lend itself to extremists operating in Syria which is particularly troublesome in light of the large network of chemical warfare, (chemcial biological weapons), weapon-storage facilities and other related facilities that there are in Syria," Clapper said.

The senior U.S. official said American military commanders are continuing to strongly advocate for a political and diplomatic option in Syria rather than a military one. Gen. Martin Dempsey, chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, and Clapper have already voiced concerns publicly about arming opposition groups who are not well known to the United States.

But the official also notes the regime of Syrian President Bashar al-Assad itself still has military cards to play. So far the regime has not used its chemical or biological capability or any military aviation units against protestors. If Syrian attack helicopters were called in, he said, "that would be very significant."

"They haven't demonstrated any interest or any intent to use those," Demspey said in an interview that aired this weekend on CNN's "Fareed Zakaria GPS."

Sounds likea  job for napalm.

Actually as an aside/addendum to what I posted earlier I guess it is things like this that then make it easy to distance oneself.  I can't think of book being burnt that should result in deadly protests - no matter how stupid or misguided the instigating act.

http://news.yahoo.com/blogs/ticket/obama-apologizes-karzai-over-bagram-koran-burnings-152220870.html

QuotePresident Obama apologized Thursday in a letter to Afghan President Hamid Karzai for the burning of Korans at the largest American military base in Afghanistan, according to the White House and Karzai's office. The incident at Bagram Air Base has fueled days of angry protests in the war-torn country.

"I wish to express my deep regret for the reported incident," Karzai's office quoted Obama as saying in the message. "The error was inadvertent; I assure you that we will take the appropriate steps to avoid any recurrence, to include holding accountable those responsible."

Three days of protests over the incident have left 14 people dead, including two American soldiers shot dead when an Afghan soldier turned his weapon on them at their base in Khogyani in eastern Nangarhar province, district governor Mohammad Hassan told AFP.

White House officials declined to challenge the wording.

US Ambassador Ryan Crocker delivered the letter to Karzai on Thursday afternoon, local time, according to US National Security Council spokesman Tommy Vietor.

Obama "expressed our regret and apologies over the incident in which religious materials were unintentionally mishandled at Bagram Airbase," Vietor said in an emailed statement.

The incident, which occurred on Tuesday, led the Taliban to call on Afghans to retaliate against the US-led coalition forces in Afghanistan and drew a stern rebuke from Karzai himself earlier this week.

What we should try is burning more Korans, and get out of the way.  See what happens.

Maybe take planes full of Korans and light them before tossing them out.

This is just horrible:
http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/46512781/ns/world_news-mideast_n_africa/


Fuck Russia.

it's Hama all over again, as anyone with half a brain should have known from the start.

Quote from: Crazy_Ivan80 on February 25, 2012, 04:28:03 AM
it's Hama all over again, as anyone with half a brain should have known from the start.

It won't end like Hama.

Why should Assad relent even an inch?  He won't get a comfortable exile somewhere nice in Europe, as the West is going on about how they'll be sure to super-punish him.  The West made diplomacy personal, which is why they failed.

Yeah, he has no choice but to either put the pistol in his mouth himself or wait for one of his crew to do it in the hopes of buying his own freedom. 

Quote from: citizen k on February 25, 2012, 05:19:59 AM

Quote from: Crazy_Ivan80 on February 25, 2012, 04:28:03 AM
it's Hama all over again, as anyone with half a brain should have known from the start.

It won't end like Hama.

Yeah, people are paying attention to this one. The regime doesn't have as much control of the armed forces as they did back in the 1980's. Also, I think Homs is bigger then Hama.

Quote from: Darth Wagtaros on February 25, 2012, 02:34:21 PM
Yeah, he has no choice but to either put the pistol in his mouth himself or wait for one of his crew to do it in the hopes of buying his own freedom.

Or he could eliminate the rebellion.

Quote from: Neil on February 26, 2012, 12:32:59 AM

Quote from: Darth Wagtaros on February 25, 2012, 02:34:21 PM
Yeah, he has no choice but to either put the pistol in his mouth himself or wait for one of his crew to do it in the hopes of buying his own freedom.

Or he could eliminate the rebellion.

At this point I don't see him being able to do that.  The elite military is Alawite, but there are enough armed Sunnis who won't wanna blast away at their co-religionists due to orders from secular-socialist fake Moslems.  Kinda like the situation in the US under Obama.

Quote from: Neil on February 26, 2012, 12:32:59 AM

Quote from: Darth Wagtaros on February 25, 2012, 02:34:21 PM
Yeah, he has no choice but to either put the pistol in his mouth himself or wait for one of his crew to do it in the hopes of buying his own freedom.

Or he could eliminate the rebellion.

I think this is very likely.

Quote from: Razgovory on February 26, 2012, 02:36:27 PM

Quote from: Neil on February 26, 2012, 12:32:59 AM

Quote from: Darth Wagtaros on February 25, 2012, 02:34:21 PM
Yeah, he has no choice but to either put the pistol in his mouth himself or wait for one of his crew to do it in the hopes of buying his own freedom.

Or he could eliminate the rebellion.

I think this is very likely.

It's the opposite of likely.

Quote from: Darth Wagtaros on February 26, 2012, 05:02:26 PM

Quote from: Razgovory on February 26, 2012, 02:36:27 PM

Quote from: Neil on February 26, 2012, 12:32:59 AM

Quote from: Darth Wagtaros on February 25, 2012, 02:34:21 PM
Yeah, he has no choice but to either put the pistol in his mouth himself or wait for one of his crew to do it in the hopes of buying his own freedom.

Or he could eliminate the rebellion.

I think this is very likely.

It's the opposite of likely.

Oh?  Why?  Assad has a small, but well armed and organized base.  I think they are perfectly capable of putting down the rebellion.

Quote from: Razgovory on February 26, 2012, 10:44:22 PM
Oh?  Why?  Assad has a small, but well armed and organized base.  I think they are perfectly capable of putting down the rebellion.

The Israelis have a better armed and organized base, but haven't managed to put their own rebellion down in 60 years.

The rebels have a massive demographic advantage and friends with lots of cash, and countries sympathetic to their cause have long borders with Syria. 

Yes.

Quote from: derspiess on February 22, 2012, 04:10:14 PM
That's your protest fetish speaking :P

But seriously, I'm hesitant to grant them the "good guys" label.  It's hard not to sympathize with them given the Syrian government's brutality, but I'll wait & see how they handle being in power if/when it happens.  So far I haven't been too impressed with the "good guys" in Egypt.

More than anything I'm disputing Yi's idea that the Free Syrian Army are the 'good guys' and that they will remain 'good guys' while receiving money and arms from the Saudis and the Gulf.  But yeah my sympathy is overwhelmingly with the peaceful protesters rather than those who, even legitimately, take up arms and who are, according to all reports, still multi-confessional.

QuoteIt would be volatile and unpredictable, for sure.  Still, I wonder if it wouldn't be nice to have a long, contained, conflict in that region between two groups that both hate us.

We'd have a conflict with, at least, the Iranians and the Saudis funding forces.  Chances are the Turks and the Israelis would get involved too.  Hamas have openly turned on the regime; Hizbullah are their strongest backer.  The Qataris and Tunisians are pushing for an Arab invasion to establish safe zones.  Already there are boatloads of Libyans and Egyptians going to fight in Syria.  How long do you think that conflict would stay contained?

QuoteWhy should Assad relent even an inch?  He won't get a comfortable exile somewhere nice in Europe, as the West is going on about how they'll be sure to super-punish him.  The West made diplomacy personal, which is why they failed.

He made the wrong friends.  Ben Ali and Salah are comfortably living off their stolen wealth in Jeddah, Mubarak could be too had he fled instead of thinking the revolution could be controlled enough to keep him safe.  The problem for the Assads is that they only really matter to their friends because they're in charge of Syria.

This report by Channel 4 News is superb:
http://www.channel4.com/news/the-horror-in-homs

This article's pretty good:

QuoteBeyond the Fall of the Syrian Regime
by Peter Harling    , Sarah Birke    | published February 24, 2012
Syrians are approaching the one-year anniversary of what has become the most tragic, far-reaching and uncertain episode of the Arab uprisings. Since protesters first took to the streets in towns and villages across the country in March 2011, they have paid an exorbitant price in a domestic crisis that has become intertwined with a strategic struggle over the future of Syria.

The regime of Bashar al-Asad has fought its citizens in an unsuccessful attempt to put down any serious challenge to its four-decade rule, leaving several thousand dead. Many more languish in jail. The regime has polarized the population, rallying its supporters by decrying the protesters as saboteurs, Islamists and part of a foreign conspiracy. In order to shore up its own ranks, it has played on the fears of the 'Alawi minority from which the ruling family hails, lending the conflict sectarian overtones. All these measures have pushed a growing number of young men on the street -- and a small but steady stream of army defectors -- to put up an armed response, while impelling large sections of the opposition to seek financial, political and military help from abroad. Loyalist units have taken considerable casualties from the armed rebels, and the regime has hit back with disproportionate force.

Events have aided the regime in its attempt to dismiss the protest movement and further tip the balance from nominal reform to escalating repression, fueling a vicious cycle that has turned sporadic clashes into a nascent civil war. In a sense, the regime may already have won: By pushing frustrated protesters to take up arms and the international community to offer them support, it is succeeding in disfiguring what it saw as the greatest threat to its rule, namely the grassroots and mostly peaceful protest movement that demanded profound change. In another sense, the regime may already have lost: By treating too broad a cross-section of the Syrian people as the enemy, and giving foreign adversaries justification to act, it seems to have forged against itself a coalition too big to defeat. At a minimum, Bashar al-Asad has reversed his father's legacy: Through tenacious diplomacy over three decades (from his takeover in 1970 to his death in 2000), Hafiz al-Asad made Syria, formerly a prize in the regional strategic game, a player in its own right. In less than a year, Bashar's obduracy will have done the opposite, turning actor into arena.

At the start of February, the regime stepped up its assault by using heavy weapons against rebellious neighborhoods of Homs, the third-largest city in Syria and the most religiously mixed one to become a hub of the uprising. The escalation was bolstered by Russia and China, which on February 4 blocked the Arab League-inspired, Western-backed attempts to pass a resolution at the UN Security Council condemning the violence and suggesting a plan for a negotiated solution by which Asad would hand over power to a deputy, who would form a unity government ahead of elections. The assumption in Moscow, which fears instability and views the struggle in Syria as a contest with the West, is that the regime will succeed in defeating both the ongoing protest movement and the emerging insurgency. In so doing, runs Russian reasoning, Syria's regime will reassert its control over the country and compel at least significant parts of the opposition to negotiate on its own terms -- preferably in Moscow.

Losing Control
This outcome seems unlikely. Behind all the bloody, one-off battles lies a picture of this country of 23 million slipping out of the regime's control. Over a period of 11 months, the regime has altogether failed to cow protesters through its mixture of violent intimidation and offers of paltry reforms.

Time and time again, the regime has proved its promises to reform, already grudging and tardy, to be largely empty as well. The lifting of emergency law in April 2011, for example, did not stop the shooting or arbitrary detention of protesters. Pulling in the leash on the security services, whose harassment of citizens fed the anger of the uprising, is off the table, for fear that it would weaken the regime's hold on the country. Any measure that could jeopardize the ruling clique's unaccountable reign is equally out of the question. What can be changed is what matters least. The Baath Party's role will certainly decrease, but Syria is a one-party state no longer: It is a state of a few families and multiple security services, who have long used resistance to US imperialism and Israeli occupation as a substitute for clear political vision. Participation in the legislative branch of government will be opened to the tamest of oppositions and perhaps in the cabinet as well; real decision-making happens in the presidential palace, anyway. The regime has set the ceiling on reforms low. Its calls for "dialogue" are designed only to legitimize this course of action.

Rather than reform, the regime's default setting has been to push society to the brink. As soon as protests started, security agents hung posters warning of sectarian strife. State media showed staged footage of arms being found in a mosque in Dir'a, the southern city where protests first broke out, and warned that a sit-in in Homs on April 18 was an attempt to erect a mini-caliphate. This manipulation of Syrians meant the regime was confident that the threat of civil war would force citizens and outside players alike to agree on preserving the existing power structure as the only bulwark against collapse. In an October interview, Asad reiterated threats of an "earthquake" and "ten Afghanistans" in the region. The regime's narrative boils down to, "Après moi le deluge."

It is doubtful that this blackmail will work. All too many Syrians have buried friends killed during protests (or, for that matter, funerals, which routinely come under fire), or have been shuffled through the regime's ghastly prisons (which consistently fail to break them, radicalizing them instead), or have watched their homes destroyed and looted. They say they will not stop, whatever the cost -- and the costs are already huge. Having weakened its home front beyond repair, the regime is also vulnerable to growing pressure from abroad. In particular, the United States and Saudi Arabia, who have long feuded with Syria over its role as a linchpin of Iranian influence, have been given an opportunity to change the Syrian regime that they could never have dreamed of.

The regime may win a pyrrhic victory, by bringing about a civil war that will destroy its own structures, wreck the country and suck in the outside world. It would be a sad end for the most surprising explosion of empowerment of the Arab spring. As protest roiled Tunisia, Egypt and Libya in 2011, many, including Syrians themselves, who saw the population as depoliticized, thought an uprising would not come. But it did: When a handful of schoolchildren in Dir'a were detained and tortured for scrawling graffiti calling for the end of the regime, protesters took to the streets from Dir'a to Idlib in the northwest, from the Mediterranean coast to eastern Dayr al-Zawr, and in tiny towns and villages from the sandy desert to the fertile plains. Calls for "toppling the regime" saw their meaning evolve from "reforming the system" to "executing the president," as they were met with ever more violence. The hope that the regime could offer any future was chipped away and then shattered.

Many see Syria, with its wealth of ethnicities and sects surrounding a Sunni Arab majority, as doomed to fail; parallels with fractious Iraq and Lebanon, which suffered long years of civil war, are frequently drawn. Yet there is reason to think that, given the chance, Syrian society could survive the family-based regime that has ruled it since Hafiz al-Asad came to power in a bloodless coup in 1970. All depends on whether society will surrender to, or face up to, its own demons, as a deep political crisis devolves into a no less profound social predicament.

The Struggle
The struggle over Syria pits two symmetrical narratives against each other. For the regime, its supporters and its allies, Syria's is an immature, if not disease-ridden society. They posit -- with evidence both real and invented, and generally blown out of proportion -- that Syrian society shows sectarian, fundamentalist, violent and seditious proclivities that can be contained only by a ruthless power structure. Remove Bashar al-Asad, and the alternative is either civil war or the hegemony of Islamists beholden to Turkey and the Gulf and sold out to the West. Regime loyalists argue that society is not ready for change and, in fact, deserves no better than its present shackling. Hizballah and Iran, rather than cultivate popular support to ensure enduring influence, have placed all their chips on the regime's ability to crush what, early on, they chose to see overwhelmingly through the lens of foreign conspiracy.

The regime's opponents, by contrast, posit that any and all change is desirable, given the regime's own nature. Over its four decades in power, the Asad dynasty has increasingly treated the country as family property, plundering its wealth for redistribution to narrowing circles of cronies. In line with divide-and-rule traditions inherited from colonialism, the regime has cynically strengthened its grip by nurturing fractures within society, keeping state institutions weak for fear they might underpin genuine national sentiment, and setting up a security apparatus heavily staffed with members of one minority, the 'Alawi community. It has suppressed dissent with at times extreme brutality, as typified by the 1982 shelling of Hama, which left many thousands dead. Regime opponents argue that, without Bashar al-Asad, Syria will finally be free to express its stifled economic potential, its natural communal harmony and its aspiration to an open, democratic political system. For their part, Gulf states and the West see in regime change a solution to all problems, not necessarily within Syria itself, but throughout the region: At last, Hizballah, the Lebanese resistance movement that relies on Syria as a transit route for weapons, would be neutralized, Iran badly weakened and the so-called moderate Arab states empowered.

Although the two narratives appear mutually exclusive, they both hold a measure of truth. The regime and the opposition in exile, who accuse the other of being the mother of all ills, have each tended to conform to stereotype.

Throughout the crisis, the regime has proven more sectarian, unaccountable and vicious than ever. Obsessed with the challenge posed by peaceful protests, its mukhabarat security services -- almost none of whose members have been put on trial as promised -- have hunted non-violent progressive activists, often with more zeal than shown toward criminal gangs and armed groups. The mukhabarat have recruited thugs and criminals -- the more extreme, venal and subservient elements of society -- into an army of proxies known across the country as shabbiha. It has tried to intimidate protesters through gruesome tactics. An emblematic case for the opposition is Hamza al-Khatib, a 14-year old from Dir'a whose battered and castrated corpse was returned to his family a month after he was taken. (The regime never denied the boy had been arrested and killed, but had forensic experts explain on television that he was in fact a professional rapist operating within a jihadi network.) Asad has gradually shed all pretense of being a national leader, speaking instead as the head of one camp determined to vanquish the other.

For its part, the Syrian National Council (SNC), the main opposition group that is composed mostly of exiles, has failed to offer an inspiring alternative since it was formed in September 2011. Its mainly unknown and inexperienced members have done little to counteract the regime's propaganda. Unable to agree on any positive political platform, the SNC has refused any negotiation with the regime and called for "international intervention" that is conveniently left undefined, leaving to their anxieties the many Syrians who simultaneously loathe the regime, dread foreign interference and panic at the idea of a high-risk transition. It has estranged, among others, Kurdish factions, who fear a Turkish agenda, and petrified Syrians distrustful of Qatari and Saudi influence. It has most notably failed to reach out to the 'Alawis, many of whom are poor and disgruntled but afraid to change sides lest they suffer a backlash due to their association with the security forces and army units responsible for much of the violence. By abandoning all these people to their dark forebodings, the SNC's members have missed an opportunity to hasten the decline of the regime and ward off civil strife in the event of Bashar's fall. On the international level, the SNC has displayed political naïveté by putting all its energy into lobbying for support from Turkey, the Gulf monarchies and the West, all of whom are already sympathetic, while ignoring and alienating the regime's allies.

...

Quote...

Social Shifts
What does not fit any prior stereotype is the behavior of Syrian society. It certainly is fissiparous, but not along predictable lines. Past uprisings -- the Muslim Brother-led insurgency in the late 1970s and early 1980s, the Druze intifada of 2000 and the Kurdish rebellion of 2004 -- raised suspicions in society at large for their communal nature. In contrast, today's protest movement is surprisingly broad-based and cross-cutting. Many an 'Alawi, especially among intellectuals and simple villagers, resents how his community has been taken hostage by the regime. The Druze are split somewhere down the middle. Christians, who are geographically dispersed, adopt remarkably different viewpoints depending on how much they see of the security services' abuse on the ground. Those in Damascus and Aleppo have generally rallied to the regime's side, but in many other areas Christians at least sympathize with protesters. Ismailis, based in the town of Salamiyya, were among the first to join the opposition. And Sunni Arabs, of course, are not all against Bashar; the Shawaya tribes in the northeast, to cite one example, tend to be supportive.

Nor is a communal prism the only one through which the conflict should be seen. Although it started off as an underclass and provincial phenomenon in the Hawran plain, the protest movement has crossed socio-economic boundaries, drawing in doctors, engineers and teachers. It has spread to the capital, where flash demonstrations stand in for the large rallies that would take place were it not for massive security deployments. The business establishment, whose interests initially made for a cautious, conservative stance, has realized the regime is compromising them: Most -- even within crony capitalist circles -- have long been donating money to the opposition. Fault lines have appeared in less likely places still. Within the same family, older generations are more likely than the youth to cling to the devil they know. Couples are sometimes torn; some women are prone to prefer stability and dialogue, while others push the limits of dissent beyond what their husbands are inclined to do.

The uprising has caused parts of Syrian society, which had long been apathetic and fragmented, to undergo a sort of renaissance. Protesters have been extraordinarily dedicated and creative. They have set up committees to collect and distribute money and document individual deaths with a fastidious sense of duty. In the midst of bloodshed, they have expanded their inventory of smart slogans and eye-catching posters, chanted in support of besieged cities in different areas of the country, stitched together new flags, and spoofed the regime in video and animation. Areas such as Daraya, close to Damascus, have become known for their acts of civil resistance. Ghiyath Matar, a young activist who was later killed under torture, had ordered roses and water to hand out to soldiers and security forces sent to police the area.

Precisely because the regime has sought to exploit every source of possible strife, its opponents have had to work hard to contain the more thuggish, sectarian and fundamentalist strands in their midst. Their efforts are what have kept society together, despite a growing and worrying pattern of confessional, criminal and revenge-inspired violence. The protest movement would have degenerated into chaos long ago if it were not for an overriding desire among the majority of its members to recover their country, their dignity and their destiny, rather than forfeit them.

There is a distinctly Syrian character to the crisis. Unlike Libyans, who in a matter of hours defected en masse, took up arms and called upon the outside world to step in, Syrians took months to resort to weapons or cry out for international intervention. Unlike Egypt, where revolution was a sublime but somewhat shallow moment of grace, the Syrian uprising has been a long, hard slog: The protest movement has gradually built itself up, studied the regime's every move and mapped out the country to the extent that small towns such as Binnish in the northwest are now known to all.

Alongside actual demonstrations, an expansive albeit largely invisible civil society has emerged to render them possible, by offering numerous forms of support. Businessmen have donated money and food; doctors sneak out medicines from hospitals and man field clinics in the most violence-ridden areas; religious leaders, by and large, try to keep a lid on sectarianism and violence. Over the course of the uprising, Syrians have articulated a now deeply rooted culture of dissent and developed sometimes sophisticated forms of self-rule by setting up local councils: Homs, which is also home to unruly armed groups, has developed a revolutionary council with an 11-member executive that presides over committees responsible for different aspects of the crisis, from interacting with the media to procuring medical supplies. Within revolting communities there is a greater sense of purpose, solidarity and national unity than at any time in recent Syrian history.

Even the growing insurgency makes for an interesting paradox: Proliferating armed groups derive their popular legitimacy from the need to protect peaceful protests militarily. No mad dash to the arsenal, the armament in most places has proceeded in stages. People first purchased weapons to keep in the house for self-defense in the event of raids by security forces. Small groups of armed men then went out with protesters to respond if the security forces started to shoot at them. Over time, the action has transformed from pure defense into a more aggressive modus operandi -- targeting government checkpoints, regime proxies and informants, military convoys and security facilities. Tit-for-tat sectarian killings occur all too frequently in central Syria. But much of the violence, up to this point, has been not random but constrained by a mandate of sorts, as it takes protecting the protests and civilians as the base for action.

Troubling Times Ahead
Of course, the foregoing is the better part of the story. On both sides, thugs and criminals are exploiting the struggle as a vehicle for social promotion, a means of enrichment and an outlet for sectarian hatred. This statement is true of regime forces, whose fallacious claim to stand for law and order is disproved all too often by their heinous behavior, as it is of some armed groups fighting them under the umbrella of the "Free Syrian Army," a motley assortment of local vigilantes. The recruits into this "Army" range from fathers defending their families to bereaved young men to defectors fighting for their lives, but its ranks are not devoid of fundamentalist militants and unreconstructed villains. To date, the latter elements have not been predominant, although they are all that the regime, its supporters and its allies want to see. The logic is self-evident: The ruling elite, having little good to offer, is hell-bent on proving that anything else to emerge from Syrian society can only be much worse. Thus the almost hysterical cult of Bashar, whose gross mishandling of this crisis matters not to his supporters: He alone can save this society from itself.

But Syrian society is better prepared to manage a transition than it would have been had the power structure collapsed early on. It has been forced into learning how to organize itself to prevent its own collapse. The regime's divide-and-rule tactics have been a key unifying factor for large swathes of society, which to survive has had to reach across geographic, communal and socio-economic boundaries. Were the revolutionaries to be successful, however, that source of unity would disappear, leaving them disoriented. As elsewhere in the region, "the fall of the regime" is a remedy for the depressing impasse that ruling elites lock their societies into, not a blueprint for successful change.

Spurred on by Iran and Hizballah and bolstered by Russian support, while facing an increasingly potent insurgency backed -- politically if not militarily -- from abroad, the chances are that the regime will neither survive nor "fall," but gradually erode and mutate into militias fighting an all-out civil war. But assuming the power structure does give way before that corner is turned, there are at least three threats that could quickly derail a political transition.

The first is the reality of Bashar's power base, which has narrowed spectacularly but remains an incontrovertible fact on the ground. Just as the regime dismisses the protest movement with the spurious argument that a majority has not taken to the streets (as if any country around the world had ever witnessed half its people on the march), the regime's opponents berate its supporters as a minority of delusional, criminal, treacherous citizens. The fact is that, just as the regime cannot survive this crisis by ignoring the millions mobilized against it, so a transition cannot succeed while overlooking the millions -- security officers, proxies and regular people -- who have thrown in their lot with Bashar. Short of protection for the people most exposed to retribution, notably among the 'Alawis, a genuine reconciliation mechanism, an effective transitional justice process and a thorough but smooth overhaul of the security services, it could all go very wrong.

Secondly, judging by the SNC's performance, there is cause for concern if it were to play a key role in such a transition. Its leading members, hindered by personal rivalries, unable to formulate clear political positions for fear of implosion and seemingly consumed with having a spot in the limelight, may fall back on sectarian apportionment as the only consensual criterion for power sharing. Syrians on the street have made clear that they see the SNC's legitimacy as based on their ability to lobby for diplomatic pressure and see their mandate as stretching no further, but the outside world's quest for a ready-made "alternative," and the prevailing assumption that pluralist societies in the Middle East are condemned to such evolution, could prove to be Syria's undoing. A political process including the SNC, but built primarily around locally led organizations, along with technocrats and businessmen, would have more legitimacy and a greater chance of success.

Finally, as increasingly desperate protesters call for help, there is a danger that the outside world will make matters worse as it plays at being savior. Calls for aid are somewhat worse than a pact with the devil: They entail pacts with many devils that do not agree on much. The Gulf monarchies, Iraq, Turkey, Russia, the US, Iran and others all see geostrategic stakes in the fate of the Asad regime. The greater their involvement, the less Syrians will remain in control of their destiny. Crying out for foreign intervention of any kind, to bring this emergency to an end at any cost, is more than understandable coming from ordinary citizens subjected to extreme forms of regime violence. Exiled opposition figures who pose as national leaders have no excuse for behaving likewise, when what is needed is a cool-headed, careful calibration of what type of outside "help" would do the minimum of harm.

Close to home, another Middle Eastern experience -- Iraq -- serves as an example on all three fronts. A political process excluding even a relatively small minority within Iraqi society led to a collective disaster. A group of returning exiles, without a social base but enjoying international support as the only visible, pre-existing "alternative," quickly took over the transition and agreed only on splitting up power among themselves on the basis of a communal calculus. Their division of the spoils gradually contaminated the entire polity, and ultimately led to civil war. And the US, presiding over this tragedy, succeeded only in turning Iraq into a parody of itself, a country that now fits every sectarian and troubled stereotype the occupying power initially saw in it.

All told, on a domestic level Syria has entered a struggle to bring its post-colonial era to a close. It is not simply about toppling a "regime" but about uprooting a "system" -- the Arabic word nizam conveniently evoking both notions. The current system is based on keeping Syrians hostage to communal divisions and regional power plays. Indeed, the regime's residual legitimacy derives entirely from playing indigenous communities and foreign powers off each other, at the expense of genuine state building and accountable leadership. Prior attempts at breaking with the legacy of colonialism, in the revolutionary bustle of the mid-twentieth century, failed, grounded as they were in narrow politicized elites and military circles. What is different today is the awakening of a broad popular movement, motivated less by parochial interests and grand ideologies than by a sense of wholesale dispossession of their wealth, dignity and destiny.

This awakening, in a sense, is precisely what the regime has been fighting. Although foreign interference is a fact, there is less a conspiracy in Syria than a society on the move, headed along a path that the regime simply will not follow. The road ahead is a dangerous one, and the chances are real that it will lead Syria, and the region, into the maze of civil war. But for all too many Syrians there is no going back. The regime was given a year to stake out a safer way forward, but has clung ever more fiercely to its old narrative, ultimately recasting itself as a historical cul-de-sac.

Quote from: Sheilbh on February 27, 2012, 11:28:09 AM
Secondly, judging by the SNC's performance, there is cause for concern if it were to play a key role in such a transition. Its leading members, hindered by personal rivalries, unable to formulate clear political positions for fear of implosion and seemingly consumed with having a spot in the limelight, may fall back on sectarian apportionment as the only consensual criterion for power sharing. Syrians on the street have made clear that they see the SNC's legitimacy as based on their ability to lobby for diplomatic pressure and see their mandate as stretching no further, but the outside world's quest for a ready-made "alternative," and the prevailing assumption that pluralist societies in the Middle East are condemned to such evolution, could prove to be Syria's undoing. A political process including the SNC, but built primarily around locally led organizations, along with technocrats and businessmen, would have more legitimacy and a greater chance of success.

I think option B (locally led organizations, along with blah blah blah) would sooner or later render the same results as option A (the SNC).  Nice article overall, but I suspect the authors are harboring the same naive hopes people had in Egypt & Libya of educated elites steering the post-revolution government towards a Western-style democracy.  Assuming those elites even want that themselves, I doubt the masses do.

FWIW, I watched the Barbara Walters interview of Assad from December because I totally missed it back then & I was curious to see how well he speaks English & how he generally conducts himself.  I have to say that despite his delusions about his popularity, events, etc. he comes across as strangely likable.  I wonder if deep down he regrets being called back to Syria in the 90s & would prefer to be a relatively humble eye doctor in London rather than a middle east dictator.

Quote from: Admiral Yi on February 27, 2012, 03:14:27 AM
The rebels have a massive demographic advantage and friends with lots of cash, and countries sympathetic to their cause have long borders with Syria.

Unless those countries get directly involved, it's going to be of little help.  The rebels don't have a great deal of heavy artillery or airplanes.  You can smuggle small arms into a country, artillery and fighter-bombers?  Not so much.  Remember that Qaddafi's forces had the initiative and were pushing back the rebels before the US intervened.

Quote from: Razgovory on February 27, 2012, 01:26:28 PM

Quote from: Admiral Yi on February 27, 2012, 03:14:27 AM
The rebels have a massive demographic advantage and friends with lots of cash, and countries sympathetic to their cause have long borders with Syria.

Unless those countries get directly involved, it's going to be of little help.  The rebels don't have a great deal of heavy artillery or airplanes.  You can smuggle small arms into a country, artillery and fighter-bombers?  Not so much.  Remember that Qaddafi's forces had the initiative and were pushing back the rebels before the US intervened.

I think it's assumed that the army will continue to defect to the other side.  Whether it will be in significant-enough numbers to tip the scales, I dunno.

Possibly, but I think they are defecting individually not defecting as a group.

Quote from: Sheilbh on February 27, 2012, 11:27:53 AM
We'd have a conflict with, at least, the Iranians and the Saudis funding forces.  Chances are the Turks and the Israelis would get involved too.  Hamas have openly turned on the regime; Hizbullah are their strongest backer.  The Qataris and Tunisians are pushing for an Arab invasion to establish safe zones.  Already there are boatloads of Libyans and Egyptians going to fight in Syria.  How long do you think that conflict would stay contained?

I think it's quite likely that all interested parties would be content to fight it out as a proxy war within Syria's borders.    As hard-headed and crazy as Middle-Easterners are, I also think they're capable of limiting escalation.  Doesn't take a history PhD to be aware of how full-scale wars have worked out for the aggressor in that region the past 60+ years.

Quote from: derspiess on February 27, 2012, 01:17:37 PM
I think option B (locally led organizations, along with blah blah blah) would sooner or later render the same results as option A (the SNC).  Nice article overall, but I suspect the authors are harboring the same naive hopes people had in Egypt & Libya of educated elites steering the post-revolution government towards a Western-style democracy.  Assuming those elites even want that themselves, I doubt the masses do.

I a lot of this turns on what you mean by Western-style democracy.  I'm still pretty optimistic about Egypt.  The major problem there remains the military that's trying to maintain its power.  Libya's far more difficult but the TNC seems reasonably competent and they're trying to restore control from the militias.  But Libya's not really got a state due to Gadaffi's way of running things.  That makes it more challenging.

QuoteFWIW, I watched the Barbara Walters interview of Assad from December because I totally missed it back then & I was curious to see how well he speaks English & how he generally conducts himself.  I have to say that despite his delusions about his popularity, events, etc. he comes across as strangely likable.  I wonder if deep down he regrets being called back to Syria in the 90s & would prefer to be a relatively humble eye doctor in London rather than a middle east dictator.

I think you're right.  His brother (who was apparently very cruel) was the one brought up to rule.  Had he not died then Bashar would probably be enjoying his private practice in Knightsbridge.

Although I imagine when the threat to the family business became clear that veneer would strip away, just like Saif Gadaffi.

QuoteI think it's quite likely that all interested parties would be content to fight it out as a proxy war within Syria's borders.    As hard-headed and crazy as Middle-Easterners are, I also think they're capable of limiting escalation.  Doesn't take a history PhD to be aware of how full-scale wars have worked out for the aggressor in that region the past 60+ years.

I haven't as much faith in wars remaining restrained.  I think you only need look at the history of the region - especially Lebanon and Yemen to see the way nations have been sucked in.  If they were all sucked in then I don't think it would take much for everyone to escalate to protect their interests.  I think if Syria becomes an arena it's got the same explosive potential of pre-WWI Balkans.

Maybe we should have a poll: Will Asad survive 2012?

Kuwait's parliament supports the rebels.

http://worldnews.msnbc.msn.com/_news/2012/03/01/10546050-kuwait-lawmakers-back-syrian-rebels-demand-country-cuts-its-ties-with-assad

Quote from: jimmy olsen on March 01, 2012, 06:44:49 AM
Kuwait's parliament supports the rebels.

http://worldnews.msnbc.msn.com/_news/2012/03/01/10546050-kuwait-lawmakers-back-syrian-rebels-demand-country-cuts-its-ties-with-assad

what a relief

Quote
Syrian rebels quit besieged Homs stronghold

BEIRUT (Reuters) - Defeated Syrian rebels left their shattered stronghold in the city of Homs on Thursday after a bloody 26-day army siege aimed at crushing a symbol of the year-long revolt against President Bashar al-Assad.
Activists said a few fighters had stayed on in the Baba Amro district, which has endured weeks of shelling, sniper fire and privation, to cover their comrades' "tactical withdrawal." Soon afterward, the international Red Cross said Syrian authorities had finally given it permission to take aid into the district on Friday.
"The Free Syrian Army and all the other fighters have left Baba Amro," one activist said from Homs. "They pulled out."
A pro-government figure proclaimed that troops had "broken the back" of the rebellion and that the fall of Baba Amro heralded impending victory over a Western-backed insurgency.
A statement in the name of the fighters urged the International Committee of the Red Cross and other humanitarian groups to enter Baba Amro to protect and bring aid to 4,000 civilians who had stayed in their destroyed houses.
"We warn the regime against any retaliation against civilians and we hold it fully responsible for their safety," the statement said, adding that the rebels had been forced to leave because they were short of supplies and ammunition.
Russia and China joined other U.N. Security Council members in expressing disappointment at Syria's failure to allows U.N. humanitarian chief Valerie Amos to visit and urged that she be allowed in immediately, France said.
The ICRC said it had received a "green light" from the Syrian authorities to enter Baba Amro on Friday.
Reports from the city could not be verified immediately due to tight government restrictions on media operations in Syria.
One activist said Syrian soldiers had begun moving into Baba Amro from all directions after most of the fighters left and were hunting the rest. At least 17 rebels were put to death with knives after they were chased into nearby fields, he said.
Scattered gunfire could be heard inside Baba Amro and sporadic shelling hit nearby districts, the activists said. The overall level of combat exchanges seemed to have receded.


The drama in Homs unfolded without any immediate comment from Syrian officials or the state media, but Taleb Ibrahim, a Syrian analyst close to the government, said the military's operation in Homs had "broken the back of the armed groups."

SCENTING VICTORY
"It's the beginning of Syria's final victory over the Qatari, Saudi, French, American and Zionist conspiracy against Syria," he told Lebanon's Hezbollah-run al-Manar television.
There was no immediate word on the fate of wounded French reporter Edith Bouvier and French photographer William Daniels, who had been among a group of journalists trapped in Baba Amro.
Two of these, American correspondent Marie Colvin and French photographer Remi Ochlik, were killed there in a bombardment a week ago. Two others later escaped into Lebanon.
Hundreds of civilians have been killed in Homs in the past month, activists say. Many of the wounded have received only rudimentary treatment in makeshift field hospitals.
Snow blanketed the city, where residents are short of food, fuel, power, water and telephone links, activists said.
Free Syrian Army commander Riad al-Asaad said the fight against Assad would go on until he fell: "The Free Army has left Baba Amro because of the brutal acts of the regime against civilians," Asaad, who is based in Turkey, told Al Jazeera.
President Assad, a London-trained eye doctor, is increasingly isolated in his struggle to crush an armed insurrection that now spearheads the revolt against four decades of his family's rule.
Britain said on Thursday it had withdrawn its diplomats from Damascus. Switzerland closed its embassy.
But the 46-year-old Syrian leader still has some allies.
Russia, China and Cuba voted against a resolution adopted overwhelmingly on Thursday by the Geneva-based U.N. Human Rights Council which condemned Syria for violations that it said may amount to crimes against humanity.
A Lebanese official close to Damascus said Assad's government was determined to regain control of Homs, Syria's third city, which straddles the main north-south highway.
"They want to take it, whatever happens, without restraint, whatever the cost," the official said, asking not to be named.
He said defeat for the rebels in Homs would leave the opposition without any major stronghold in Syria, easing the crisis for Assad, who remained confident he could survive.
"SIGNIFICANT BASE
Ayham Kamel, Middle East analyst with Eurasia Group, a political risk consultancy, said that if the fall of Baba Amro was confirmed, it would be a severe setback to Assad's foes.
"That sends a strong message to the opposition that the army has ample strength to dominate on the ground," he said.
"Baba Amro was a very significant base for the rebels ... a heart of arms transfers and organization. It was a base in Syria where the opposition had full control."
He predicted further military operations against remaining rebel strongholds, but on a less intensive scale.
Western and Arab governments, which have already called on Assad to step down and end the bloodshed, expressed mounting concern for civilians struggling to survive in Homs.
Kofi Annan, the U.N.-Arab League envoy on Syria, has said he plans to visit Damascus soon to press for a halt to the violence and better access for humanitarian groups.
Syria took a guarded approach, saying it had asked the United Nations to clarify the nature of Annan's mission.
The Foreign Ministry also said it was ready to discuss a date for U.N. humanitarian chief Amos to visit instead of the "inconvenient" one she had sought
RUSSIAN ROLE
Russia, which along with China, has shielded Syria from U.N. Security Council action, is emerging as a pivotal player in diplomacy over the Syrian crisis.
Moscow has invited Annan for talks on Syria and, according to Kuwaiti officials, will send Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov to meet his Gulf Arab counterparts in Riyadh next week.
Saudi Arabia and Qatar have led calls for the world to arm Syrian rebels following last month's Russian-Chinese veto of a draft Security Council resolution critical of Syria.
Syria's Foreign Ministry spokesman Jihad al-Maqdisi told al-Manar television that the Saudis and Qataris were "singing from the same hymn sheet" as al Qaeda leader Ayman al-Zawahri, who has urged Arabs and Muslims to support anti-Assad insurgents.
Kuwait's parliament, dominated by Sunni Islamists, said it had agreed to support the Free Syrian Army and urged the Kuwaiti government to cut relations with Syria.
While the Sunni-ruled Gulf monarchies have been alarmed by demands for democracy inspired by revolts across the Arab world, they have also long been at odds with Shi'ite Iran, their non-Arab rival across the Gulf, and with Tehran's Arab allies, Alawite-ruled Syria and the Lebanese Shi'ite group Hezbollah.
Assad's minority, Shi'ite-rooted Alawite sect dominates the political and military elite in Sunni-majority Syria.
The United Nations says Syrian security forces have killed more than 7,500 civilians since the revolt began last March. Syria's government said in December that "armed terrorists" had killed more than 2,000 soldiers and police during the unrest.

(https://languish.org/forums/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Fl.yimg.com%2Fbt%2Fapi%2Fres%2F1.2%2FV0DCKT16RIIJCnLU85W8TQ--%2FYXBwaWQ9eW5ld3M7Zmk9aW5zZXQ7aD00NTA7cT04NTt3PTYzMA--%2Fhttp%3A%2F%2Fmedia.zenfs.com%2Fen_us%2FNews%2FReuters%2F2012-02-29T164702Z_759636293_GM1E83102FC01_RTRMADP_3_SYRIA.JPG&hash=81524cdaa0b8072e4212272364856f0e535023d6)

Quote
Red Cross blocked by Syria from ex-rebel enclave

BEIRUT (AP) — Syria blocked a Red Cross convoy Friday from delivering badly needed food, medical supplies and blankets to a rebellious neighborhood of Homs cut off by a monthlong siege, and activists accused regime troops who overran the shattered district of execution-style killings and a scorched-earth campaign.
Humanitarian conditions in the former rebel stronghold of Baba Amr have been described as catastrophic, with extended power outages, shortages of food and water, and no medical care for the sick and wounded.
British Prime Minister David Cameron called Homs "a scene of medieval barbarity."
Syrian state TV showed burned-out and destroyed buildings in Baba Amr, a western neighborhood of Homs, which was covered with a blanket of fresh snow.
Syrian government forces took control of Baba Amr on Thursday after rebels fled the district under constant bombardment that activists said killed hundreds of people since early February. The Syrian regime has said it was fighting "armed gangs" in Baba Amr, and had vowed to "cleanse" the neighborhood.
"It is unacceptable that people who have been in need of emergency assistance for weeks have still not received any help," said Jakob Kellenberger, president of the International Committee of the Red Cross.
The Red Cross said it had received permission from the government of President Bashar Assad on Thursday to enter Baba Amr, on the western side of Homs, and a convoy of seven trucks with 15 tons of humanitarian aid was poised to do so, but authorities then blocked their access. There was no explanation from the government about the change.
"We are staying in Homs tonight in the hope of entering Baba Amr in the very near future," Kellenberger said.
U.N. Secretary-General Ban Ki-moon called on Syria to give humanitarian workers immediate access to people who desperately need aid.
"The images which we have seen in Syria are atrocious," said Ban. "It's totally unacceptable, intolerable. How, as a human being, can you bear this situation?"
U.N. humanitarian chief Valerie Amos has been trying, without success, to get permission from the Syrian government to visit, and Ban said Assad's regime should let her into the country to assess the situation without delay.
British photographer Paul Conroy, who was wounded by shelling in Baba Amr and trapped there for several days until he escaped, told Britain's Sky News that thousands of people were still in Homs, "living in bombed-out wrecks with children six to a bed, rooms full of people waiting to die." He said they had no electricity or water and only meager supplies of food.
"It's not a war. It's a massacre — indiscriminate massacre of men, women and children," he told the broadcaster. "It's snowing there now and these people can't make fires."
Bassel Fouad, a Syrian activist who fled to Lebanon from Baba Amr, said a colleague there told him Friday that Syrian troops and pro-government gunmen known as shabiha were conducting house-to-house raids.
"The situation is worse than terrible inside Baba Amr," Fouad said. "Shabiha are entering homes and setting them on fire."
His colleague said the gunmen lined 10 men up early Friday and shot them to death in front of a government cooperative that sells subsidized food. Syrian forces were detaining anyone over the age of 14 in the three-story building, he added.
"They begin at the start of a street and enter and search house after house," he said. "Then they start with another street."
The Britain-based Syrian Observatory for Human Rights also said it had received reports of 10 people slain in front of a co-op and called on the Red Cross team heading to Homs to investigate claims by residents the building is being used a prison. Another group, the Local Coordination Committees, said 14 were killed.
The claims could not be independently verified. Rupert Colville, a spokesman for the U.N. High Commissioner for Human Rights, said in Geneva that the agency had received unconfirmed reports of "a particularly grisly set of summary executions" involving 17 people in Baba Amr after government forces entered.
Colville said his office was seeking to confirm the reports and called on both government and rebel forces to refrain from all forms of revenge attacks.
Syria has a fragile mix of ethnic groups including Sunnis, Shiites, Christians and the minority Alawite sect, to which Assad and the ruling elite belong. Homs, the country's third-largest city, has emerged as a key battleground and has seen an alarming rise in sectarian tensions and reprisal killings.
The European Union committed itself to document war crimes in Syria to set the stage for a "day of reckoning" for the country's leadership, in the way that former Yugoslav leaders were tried for war crimes in the 1990s by a special U.N. tribunal.
EU leaders in Brussels condemned Assad's regime for its nearly yearlong crackdown on an uprising that began with mostly peaceful protests but has veered toward civil war, with Syrian forces firing heavy artillery against civilians. The U.N. has estimated that more than 7,500 people have been killed, while activists put the death toll at over 8,000.
"We will make sure — as we did in Serbia — that there is a day of reckoning for those who are responsible," said Cameron, who accused the Assad regime of "butchering its own people."
"It is very important that we set out the war crimes that effectively are being committed, that we write them down, we take the photographic evidence, we bring it together and ... make sure that the day of reckoning will come," he told reporters.
The EU leaders pledged to step up sanctions against the Damascus regime "as long as the violence and human rights abuses continue." They again called on Assad to resign.
French President Nicolas Sarkozy said his country is closing its embassy in Syria, a day after two French journalists — one of them wounded — escaped to Lebanon after being trapped for days in Baba Amr for nine days. Britain and the United States have already closed their embassies.
Russia, a staunch ally of Syria, blasted the West for backing the opposition, with Prime Minister Vladimir Putin calling for both the rebels and the government forces to pull out of besieged cities to end the bloodshed.
"Do they want Assad to pull out his forces so the opposition moves right in?" Putin said at a meeting with Western newspaper editors in remarks on state TV. "Is it a balanced approach?"
Sarkozy greeted Edith Bouvier, a journalist for Le Figaro, and William Daniels, a photographer, after they flew to a military airport in Villacoublay, France, from Beirut.
Bouvier was taken off the plane on a stretcher. She sustained several fractures to a leg during a rocket attack on Feb. 22 that killed two Western journalists — American-born reporter Marie Colvin and French photographer Remi Ochlik — and wounded Conroy, who was spirited out of Syria. Spanish reporter Javier Espinosa also was smuggled out.
Red Cross spokesman Bijan Farnoudi told The Associated Press that the organization has the bodies of Colvin and Ochlik and was taking them to Damascus. Activist videos posted online Thursday purported to show the burials of Colvin and Ochlik in Baba Amr this week. The Syrian government news agency said the bodies were exhumed after Baba Amr fell so they could be repatriated. But in an obviously erroneous report, it said Espinosa's body was among them, even though he appeared on international TV shows Friday, detailing his escape.
Activists said protesters took to the streets in towns elsewhere across Syria Friday, with security forces unleashing tear gas and gunfire, and making mass arrests.
The Observatory said 10 people were killed in the town of Rastan near Homs when a mortar shell landed near marchers. The LCC said 16 were killed in the same event, among 65 reported dead nationwide.
Amateur video posted online by activists showed a protest in Rastan of about 200 youths singing and flashing the "V'' sign for victory until a gunshot sent them fleeing. The video showed gruesome images, including a bloodied corpse slumped in front of a shop and a severed head in a pool of blood.

Here are two videos that I think give a good picture of the revolution in Syria:

Freelance cameraman provides a rare glimpse into Homs :
http://www.cnn.com/2012/02/24/world/meast/syria-homs-closeup/index.html?hpt=imi_mid (http://www.cnn.com/2012/02/24/world/meast/syria-homs-closeup/index.html?hpt=imi_mid)

Homs: City Under Siege - CNN Report on Syria :
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZV9b0D9pPBQ (http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZV9b0D9pPBQ)

Quote from: Peter Wiggin on February 26, 2012, 10:51:51 PM

Quote from: Razgovory on February 26, 2012, 10:44:22 PM
Oh?  Why?  Assad has a small, but well armed and organized base.  I think they are perfectly capable of putting down the rebellion.

The Israelis have a better armed and organized base, but haven't managed to put their own rebellion down in 60 years.

Yes, but the Israelis don't committ the mass scale murder required to get the palestinians to calm down like Assad t.E. did at Hama.

Quote from: citizen k on March 07, 2012, 03:22:45 PM
Freelance cameraman provides a rare glimpse into Homs :
http://www.cnn.com/2012/02/24/world/meast/syria-homs-closeup/index.html?hpt=imi_mid (http://www.cnn.com/2012/02/24/world/meast/syria-homs-closeup/index.html?hpt=imi_mid)

Fascinating, gritty stuff. 

Reinforces a few notions I had:
*The opposition is extremely well-motivated.
*The opposition/NSA has a long way to go to before they have a serious chance to overthrow the regime.  Motivation and bravery can't overcome lack of equipment & training.
*We don't want any part of this fight.  At least not directly.
*War is hell.

Quote
A street called Syria divides tense Lebanese city

TRIPOLI, Lebanon (Reuters) - Two rival communities are preparing for war in Lebanon's northern coastal city of Tripoli and the frontline in their conflict is a street called Syria.

In the Sunni Muslim district of Bab Tebbaneh, Syrian rebel flags flutter from buildings, declarations of support for the one-year uprising against Bashar al-Assad.

The neighboring Jebel Mohsen area is home to Tripoli's defiant Alawite minority - from the same sect as Assad - who display their loyalty with pictures of the Syrian president.

Bullet holes scar buildings in both districts, reminders of conflict which date back nearly four decades and which flared again last month in street battles between fighters firing automatic rifles and rocket-propelled grenades.

Two people were killed in that confrontation before the army was deployed to restore calm, reinforcing fears that the turmoil in Syria, which has already polarized Lebanese politicians and religious communities, may spark wider violence in the country.

Along Syria street, the dividing line between the Sunnis of Bab Tebbaneh and Alawites of Jebel Mohsen, banners supporting Assad flap alongside posters demanding his downfall.

On Fridays, when frictions often rise after Muslim prayers, soldiers deploy in force in the street to prevent further clashes. Armored personnel carriers are stationed in the area throughout the week.

"When the army leaves, people will kill each other ... It will be war," said a Sunni Muslim fighter from Bab Tebbaneh who gave his name as Abdullah.

LEBANON WAR "ISN'T OVER"

Tensions between Jebel Mohsen and Bab Tebbaneh date back to the early years of Lebanon's 1975-1990 civil war, when Assad's father Hafez al-Assad sent troops into Lebanon, a military presence which was to last until 2005.

Alawites in Tripoli sided with the Syrian forces, while the city's Sunni Muslims backed the Palestinian militants fighting Assad's troops.

"The (civil) war ended but it is not over here," said Waleed, a Sunni Muslim fighter and community leader. "The people of Bab Tebbaneh suffered the most from the Syria regime."

"At least 86 people from here are still missing since the 1980s. They disappeared because of the Syrian regime and we don't know if they are dead or in prison."

"Now the wounds have reopened," he added, his message reinforced by fresh pictures of residents, missing for 30 years, pasted on the walls of Bab Tebbaneh against a background of rebel Syrian flags.

Zakaria al-Masri, imam of a mosque in the Qebba district where anti-Assad protests take place most Fridays, said people had a duty to support the overwhelmingly Sunni Muslim uprising in Syria after a year of unrest in which the United Nations says 8,000 people have died.

"Syrian people are facing injustice. It is important to stand by those facing injustice," he said at a demonstration earlier this month where people waved rebel Syrian flags and children painted anti-Assad slogans including "Freedom" and "Leave" on their foreheads.

Alawites in Jebel Mohsen, a hillside district overlooking the Mediterranean city, counter that the hostility to Assad has come from an increasingly hardline current of Sunni Islam which they say is taking hold in their city. They say they are well armed and ready for a showdown.

"We have noticed how extremism is spreading and nobody is criticizing it," said one man at a cafe in a poor district of Jebel Mohsen. He said some moderate Sunni sheikhs in Tripoli had been replaced by more conservative clerics, adding he saw more men with long beards and short dishdasha robes - signs of extreme religious piety - some of whom did not speak Arabic.

"We are a minority. Nothing will protect us but our weapons," said another man, who said that any conflict in Tripoli would spread to the capital Beirut and the Bekaa Valley.

"We have plenty of weapons and we are buying - heavy and light weapons, all is here," he said.

GUNS IN EVERY HOUSE

Weapons are a constant feature of conversation in the tinder-box city, and are rarely out of sight.

Speaking to a reporter in his home, Waleed proudly held his M-16 assault rifle, while his son showed off a Kalashnikov, saying they were stocking up on arms for the war they expect will erupt in Tripoli.

"We are buying guns to defend ourselves. Each house has guns depending on the number of men in the house," said the 52-year-old father of three, who says his own father was killed by Syrian forces.

His two sons and daughter are all trained to use a gun.

"Ten-year-old boys can use guns here. All men teach their sons how to use weapons. Even our women, we teach them".

"I know people who sold their televisions and gold just to buy weapons," he said. "When we are living in a security vacuum it is only natural that we protect ourselves".

A Tripoli resident called Munir said the bloodshed in Syria, where Assad's forces bombarded the rebel Homs neighborhood of Baba Amro into submission last month, had brought back Lebanese memories of their own civil war.

"What is happening in Syria has repercussions here. When a son of Bab Tebbaneh sees what happens in Syria he is reminded of what happened in the 1980s," he said, speaking at a cafe near the Sunni Muslim district.

"People lived through the same shelling and same massacres."

SPARK FOR CONFLICT

Although both sides say they are ready for a fight, no one will predict when the spark for a conflict might be struck.

"Definitely there will be a battle here but the question is for what purpose," said Waleed, who estimated the Alawites had about 1,000 to 2,000 fighters, while the Sunnis had 5,000. "Everyone is waiting for the right moment."

Most political leaders in Lebanon, from Sunni Muslim Prime Minister Najib Mikati to Shi'ite Hezbollah leader Sayyed Hassan Nasrallah, have sought to prevent the Syrian crisis from spilling over into its smaller neighbor.

But the uprising has laid bare the country's divisions, with Nasrallah backing Assad and others, including Druze leader Walid Jumblatt and former Sunni prime minister Saad al-Hariri stepping up their condemnation of Assad's crackdown.

"Bab Tebbaneh and Jebel Mohsen are the weakest link in the country, but to ignite it requires a decision," Waleed said.

One Alawite resident, referring to the high levels of deprivation in Tripoli, said it was no accident that poverty was so widespread in the port city.

"We are left here as poor people so that when they need fuel for any war they can use us," he said, standing near two mosques, one Sunni and another Alawite, both pockmarked with bullet holes.

Another supporter of the Syrian leader, sitting in a car playing songs praising Assad, said Alawites were brought up to fight "to the end".

"When a child is born we do not bring him gold or sweets. We bring him a gun. This is his gift because he will be a fighter."

He smiled, and added: "Let them try to fight us".

Quote from: citizen k on March 22, 2012, 10:10:03 PM

Quote
GUNS IN EVERY HOUSE

Weapons are a constant feature of conversation in the tinder-box city, and are rarely out of sight.

Speaking to a reporter in his home, Waleed proudly held his M-16 assault rifle, while his son showed off a Kalashnikov, saying they were stocking up on arms for the war they expect will erupt in Tripoli.

"We are buying guns to defend ourselves. Each house has guns depending on the number of men in the house," said the 52-year-old father of three, who says his own father was killed by Syrian forces.

His two sons and daughter are all trained to use a gun.

"Ten-year-old boys can use guns here. All men teach their sons how to use weapons. Even our women, we teach them".

"I know people who sold their televisions and gold just to buy weapons," he said. "When we are living in a security vacuum it is only natural that we protect ourselves".

This reminded me of the stand your grounders in the US, like derspeiss or Rasputin.

Quote from: Viking on March 07, 2012, 04:06:56 PM

Quote from: Peter Wiggin on February 26, 2012, 10:51:51 PM

Quote from: Razgovory on February 26, 2012, 10:44:22 PM
Oh?  Why?  Assad has a small, but well armed and organized base.  I think they are perfectly capable of putting down the rebellion.

The Israelis have a better armed and organized base, but haven't managed to put their own rebellion down in 60 years.

Yes, but the Israelis don't committ the mass scale murder required to get the palestinians to calm down like Assad t.E. did at Hama.

I don't think it's really comparable. The Israelis don't really rule the Palestinians.  It's more like a nation state bordered by a pirate enclave.  They send in soldiers to suppress the pirates occasionally, but don't really govern them.

Quote from: derspiess on March 07, 2012, 04:45:45 PM

Quote from: citizen k on March 07, 2012, 03:22:45 PM
Freelance cameraman provides a rare glimpse into Homs :
http://www.cnn.com/2012/02/24/world/meast/syria-homs-closeup/index.html?hpt=imi_mid (http://www.cnn.com/2012/02/24/world/meast/syria-homs-closeup/index.html?hpt=imi_mid)

Fascinating, gritty stuff. 

Reinforces a few notions I had:
*The opposition is extremely well-motivated.
*The opposition/NSA has a long way to go to before they have a serious chance to overthrow the regime.  Motivation and bravery can't overcome lack of equipment & training.
*We don't want any part of this fight.  At least not directly.
*War is hell.

Damn thing won't play for me.    Says requested video is not available. <_<

Tunisia's stance is interesting.  They've offered forces for any international intervention, but they've also offered Assad asylum if he steps down.

Quote from: Sheilbh on March 23, 2012, 07:25:12 PM
Tunisia's stance is interesting.  They've offered forces for any international intervention

*Any* international intervention?  What prevents them from going alone  :menace:

So what do we think? The Syrian leadership is now, or will be, wanted for crimes against humanity and other heavy duty charges. Will the world be adamant in seeking to punish these thugs, or will this get somewhat forgotten?  It was forgotten with Assad's father; but this is a different era. I can't see this  human slaughter being left alone after the carnage is over.

Quote from: KRonn on March 24, 2012, 08:33:41 PM
So what do we think? The Syrian leadership is now, or will be, wanted for crimes against humanity and other heavy duty charges. Will the world be adamant in seeking to punish these thugs, or will this get somewhat forgotten?  It was forgotten with Assad's father; but this is a different era. I can't see this  human slaughter being left alone after the carnage is over.

Tricky, because all the foreseeable alternative outcomes seem worse, to varying degrees; I'd guess many in the west would still take a 'successful' crackdown as the least worst option. That's not to say governments wouldn't huff and puff about ICC indictments, but it would still be the old Ba'thists that 'we' could reply on to be 'rational' players in the region. 

My view is a Sunni dominated government, with substantial islamist components that probably actively or at least passively engage in ethnic politics would be a disaster for the Syrian people, many times worse than what's happening now.   

Quote from: KRonn on March 24, 2012, 08:33:41 PM
So what do we think? The Syrian leadership is now, or will be, wanted for crimes against humanity and other heavy duty charges. Will the world be adamant in seeking to punish these thugs, or will this get somewhat forgotten?  It was forgotten with Assad's father; but this is a different era. I can't see this  human slaughter being left alone after the carnage is over.

Nah, there will be no charges from the Hague.  If Assad wins, nobody will care in a few years.  It'll be brought up everyone once in a while when someone wants to make a point on how he's such a bad guy, but otherwise nothing.  Unless the situation changes dramatically (with outside intervention), Assad will win.  The best the rebels can hope for is to go to ground as a guerrilla movement and remain a thorn in the government's side.

Quote from: Razgovory on March 24, 2012, 11:12:45 PM
Nah, there will be no charges from the Hague.

Why not?

QuoteIf Assad wins, nobody will care in a few years.  It'll be brought up everyone once in a while when someone wants to make a point on how he's such a bad guy, but otherwise nothing.  Unless the situation changes dramatically (with outside intervention), Assad will win.  The best the rebels can hope for is to go to ground as a guerrilla movement and remain a thorn in the government's side.

I'm nowhere near as confident in predicting where this'll go. 

At this point the regime's response is growing in violence.  There's not really rebellion as there was in Libya.  The rebels are able, generally, to stop the regime's forces from establishing themselves, so they're providing some protection for the ongoing protests.  That's part of the reason the regime's becoming more violent.  But the regime at this point doesn't look like it's in control of most of the country.  The reports on where protests have taken place week after week doesn't suggest this is weakening and it also indicates how, so far, the regime's not been able to regain control.  The rebels are less of a threat to the regime than the protests.  Reports suggest that they are starting to cause more problems in Damascus and Aleppo than before, those are regime strongholds and the commercial centre of Syria.  In addition the rebels have, by all accounts, attracted deserters but also petty thieves, criminals, jihadists from Syria and other Arab states. 

There's a sectarian element that's growing especially against the Alawites, but it's not simply sectarian.  For example the Druze are starting to shift (under pressure from Walid Jumblatt and the Lebanese Druze) because some of their leaders are helping funnel funds to the FSA, and because the government's not in control.  Villages and neighbourhoods of all sects have started setting up vigilante committees to keep order and look out for outsiders.  This is necessary given the state Syria's in, but if the government can't protect minorities (or anyone) then their argument for why minorities should back them is gone.  The chaos erodes the support for the government and, I think, it'll be difficult for any force to restore complete order any time soon.

I think right now there's a few possibilities.  The regime could survive.  But it will struggle desperately to re-establish itself as the dominant force in Syria.  Even if it does I can't see the sanctions being lifted any time soon so it'll be in a far weaker state than before.  Syria's sort of like the Eastern Bloc of the Arab world.  They've been under sanctions for a long time and so, apparently, the clothes they wear, the cars they drive, the haircuts they have all look about 20 years out of date to other Arabs.  That'll get a lot worse if the regime survives.

I think the regime could also split.  Though this is unlikely given that they're all tied together, complicit in their crimes.  If the regime splits chances are there'll be a sectarian element and I think we'd see a full on war.  There are regiments that are entirely Alawite.  They've been doing most of the work for the regime so far because the other regiments aren't fully trusted.  If they go over to the FSA, or a Sunni Minister forms a National Transitional Council or something - with the non-Alawite army - then I think we'll end up with an active civil war.

Or what's prompting the Druze to start self-defence groups could continue.  I think we're at the point where Syria could just entirely disintegrate.  This is about where I think we are now and, if I had to guess, I think this is probably where we'll end up.  The regime exists and is in power in Damascus, Alawite regions and Aleppo.  Aside from that it's power extends as far as the secret service and the Alawite regiments of the army - or the regime could collapse on itself entirely.  There's still no unifying group, as existed in Libya, so I think you'd see different power centres form across the country, with different leaders and in between them armed villages trying to live.  So somewhere between Lebanon and Afghanistan.

The question is not "Why wouldn't the Hague do something", it's "Why would it?"  I seriously doubt the UN would create a tribunal unless Assad is already out of power.  And has the ICC indicted anyone who wasn't in Africa?

I agree that Syria has been weakened by this, but I don't think it'll fall.  I think the Alawite and the Druze will ultimately stay loyal.  A new government may very well butcher them and they know it.  The rebels can't resist the military and the crowds can't protest forever.  The fractious nature of the opposition means that the government can buy off portions in a divide and conquer strategy.

Quote from: Razgovory on March 25, 2012, 12:34:12 AM
The question is not "Why wouldn't the Hague do something", it's "Why would it?"  I seriously doubt the UN would create a tribunal unless Assad is already out of power.  And has the ICC indicted anyone who wasn't in Africa?

The ICC hasn't.  They're investigating outside Africa though.  They need to be asked to investigate - they're not allowed to roam around the world looking for war crimes - which means for Syria that the UNSC would need to ask them to investigate.  Unless the Syrian National Council are recognised.  Then they could ask.  But if Russia and China decide to abandon Assad - without approving intervention - then I think they'll give this.

Or a special tribunal could be set up like the one for Lebanon.

QuoteI agree that Syria has been weakened by this, but I don't think it'll fall.  I think the Alawite and the Druze will ultimately stay loyal.  A new government may very well butcher them and they know it.  The rebels can't resist the military and the crowds can't protest forever.  The fractious nature of the opposition means that the government can buy off portions in a divide and conquer strategy.

They've not managed to buy any bit of the opposition off yet.  Because it's so fractious I think, in part.  There's no clear leaders and even if the regime bought them off there's no indication that the uprising would follow.

But I think your impression of the Syrian government's strength is wrong.  They still haven't managed to take Homs - the city is still being shelled and fought over.  The government announced that they'd taken Idlib during the weak, they've withdrawn today using civilians as human shields due attacks by 'rebels' of some sort.  The loyal, trusted bits of the Syrian military (Alawite regiments) and the secret service haven't yet managed to re-assert control in any city in Syria yet they occassionally manage to get a neighbourhood or the centre but they've always been driven back.  If they lose Damascus or Aleppo then I think it's over because they wouldn't have even that.

The reports from Damascus are of growing opposition though.  There's apparently been bomb attacks on government and military institutions, there's hit and run attacks on government employees and occasional brief protests that then disperse or are dispersed very quickly.  It's still totally in government control but there are more reports of those types of incident than before either because the regime's weakening, the opposition's getting bolder or undecided Damascenes are turning against the regime.

Homs has all but fallen.  The rebels only hold a small fraction of the city now.  They'll lose that very soon.  And you are completely wrong about the Syrian government not asserting authority over areas.  There have been several successful operations mounted by the Government.   Where did you read that Syrian forces retreated from Idlib?  I've read they've withdrawn to go fight elsewhere and the city is firmly under the control of the government.  Idlib is just one of many cities and towns crushed by the government.

I think you are wrong Assad not buying off the opposition yet.  He's offered many concessions and some of these have been taken.  The new Constitutions is an example of this.  There is also talk of restoring the political rights of Kurd.  Kurds seem respective this idea.

I think the escalation of violence is actually the last stages of the rebellion.  The government has secured enough support domestically and internationally that it can now destroy any of those rebels who remain.

So this is surprising:

QuoteCautious hope for Syria
Posted By Marc Lynch   Friday, April 13, 2012 - 12:40 PM 

Few diplomatic initiatives have faced more skepticism than Kofi Annan's plan for Syria, and for good reason. Annan's six point plan may have been the only game in town, but its limited mandate reflected by necessity the demands of a divided Security Council and seemed to many far too accommodating to Syrian President Bashar al-Assad. Assad certainly gave little reason to believe its promises, as his forces spent the days leading up to the ceasefire date unleashing ever escalating violence. Syrian opposition and activist views ranged from skeptical to hostile, while those who loudly yearn for a Western military intervention dismissed it as an irritating obstacle to action.

But on Thursday, the ceasefire took effect. Violence did not end, but it dramatically dropped.  That set the stage for today's critical test: would peaceful protestors return to the streets after the brutal onslaught of the last couple of weeks? And how would regime forces respond if they did? Up until now, the answers offer the first, frail glimmers of hope for Syria in a long, long time. I've been watching dozens of videos of Syrians pouring out into the streets today to demonstrate across the country. And while there have again been scattered reports of attacks and efforts to block demonstrations in some cities, there has not been a systematic military response. Today's exhilerating outpouring of popular, peaceful protest does not guarantee anything.  But it does prove that Assad's effort to kill his way to victory has failed.

The wave of peaceful protests today offers a tantalizing window into the possibility, however slim, that Annan's plan could halt Syria's seemingly relentless slide to civil war. Assad's failure to break the spirit of opposition despite his brutal onslaught over the last couple of weeks is genuinely significant. The wave of protest and the much-strengthened international consensus showed that Assad's brutal offensive, and dangerous escalation along the Turkish border, failed to destroy the opposition and helped to unite the international community. The willingness of Syrians to go into the streets today, and for the opposition to generally adhere to peaceful protest for the day, is a vital sign that such a political strategy remains possible and that a mobilized non-violent opposition might take advantage of a ceasefire to recapture political momentum.

Given his lost legitimacy and the economic collapse, I don't believe that Assad can survive at this point without using force. He seems to have believed that he could crush the opposition before his international window closed, but he did not. If Syrians continue to take to the streets and the regime is restrained by international pressure from responding violently, a snowball could begin to roll, especially if those still sitting on the fence or backing the regime out of fear come to see that opposition as peaceful and inclusive rather than as a potentially life-threatening armed force. It would be remarkable to see a non-violent, mass protest movement emerge from the wreckage of civil war like a Phoenix. It may in fact be too much to expect, given the evolution of the status and role of the armed groups within the opposition and the horrors which the regime has inflicted upon the population. But it's something to encourage and to protect.

It's obviously only a beginning, and one which could be reversed over the weekend. Assad has not even come close to complying with the terms of the Annan plan, which includes far more than a ceasefire. But it's notable that there is now a robust and largely unified international consensus demanding that he comply with the plan -- even from Russia and China, which have a stake in a plan they helped craft. The plan, as Secretary of State Hilary Clinton noted, is not a menu of options from which to choose.  And more demands should be forthcoming. The Security Council is reportedly close to approving a plan for a small observer mission to enter Syria, which would at least initially be a symbolic step to capitalize on the momentum. I suspect that the recent rumblings from Annan about humanitarian corridors, from Turkey about safe zones and invoking NATO Article, and from the Security Council resolution drafters about considering "other means" if the ceasefire fails are meant primarily to pressure Assad to stick to the plan. And I'm very pleased by the growing talk of pushing for an ICC referral at the Security Council should the Annan plan fail, and by the agreement at the recent Friends of Syria conference to create a "Syria Accountability Clearing House" to prepare the ground for future international or transitional justice regardless of the political outcome.

Nobody believes that this is going to be easy or fast or fully satisfying, least of all Annan.  Everything could easily go wrong if and when regime forces launch a major attack on protestors, or if there's an opposition attack against those forces. I don't believe that Assad will intentionally negotiate his own downfall, or trust his intentions for a minute.  The contours of a political transition haven't even begun to be discussed publicly. Syrian opposition activists are highlighting ongoing violations and warning furiously that Assad should not be trusted. And a lot of external supporters of the Syrian opposition don't want a political process to succeed since it would block the path towards the military intervention they advocate, and are already agitating to declare the Annan plan dead.

But that would be a mistake at this point. The fetish for military intervention among so many in the Syria policy debate has been counter-productive. The Obama administration and most of the key governments involved in the Syria crisis clearly believe that military intervention and arming the opposition are bad ideas -- not viable solutions which they are avoiding for political reasons, but potential fiascos which they are avoiding out of prudence. I expect that the U.S. and the United Nations will try to keep this process alive while pushing Assad and the opposition for self-restraint and for a political roadmap. They should, even through the likely setbacks, stumbles, and reversals to come. This may be the last chance to avoid a catastrophic descent into years of protracted insurgency and proxy warfare. I hope it survives the weekend and takes root, even if most everyone recognizes that it likely will not.   

Is that from Vogue?

And it ended.  The government's back to shelling Homs.  I suspect they were spooked by the fact that at least tens of thousands of people turned out on the first day they could do so without being killed.