In the run up to the new Politburo, a very interesting article:
http://twq.com/12winter/docs/12winter_Li.pdf
Any rumours Mono?
The article is a good summary of what is already known about the Chinese leadership succession. People who pay attention to the news in HK won't find a lot of new stuff in it.
The general expectation is that Xi Jin-ping (the current vice president) will become president this year. But we are venturing into new territory because this is the first time in 20 years where a leader has not been blessed by Deng Xiao-ping. Both Jiang and Hu were appointed by Deng. Xi is the result of negotiations among the factions.
Hu maybe a first among equals, but there is one area where he holds a great deal of influence - Tibet. He was party secretary of Tibet in 1989, a very turbulant year for both the region and China as a whole. It is widely believed that his handling of the unrest impressed Deng. Hu's departure may open the door for some new policy in this area. Or it may not.