The results are coming in. The Russians are not as fond of Putin as he'd like to claim. Even with all the shenanigans, it seems United Russia is only getting around 50% of the vote.
The question is, I guess, how Putin's going to react? Does Russian democracy have some heft after all?
http://www.washingtonpost.com/world/russia-voters-turn-away-from-putin-party/2011/12/04/gIQA5MG5TO_story_1.html
http://www.theglobeandmail.com/news/world/russian-election-results-a-blow-to-putin/article2259498/
Quote from: Jacob on December 04, 2011, 10:03:27 PMThe question is, I guess, how Putin's going to react.
Angrily.
Oh, I imagine he'll get the votes he needs in the end.
Quote from: Jacob on December 04, 2011, 10:03:27 PM
The results are coming in. The Russians are not as fond of Putin as he'd like to claim. Even with all the shenanigans, it seems United Russia is only getting around 50% of the vote.
The question is, I guess, how Putin's going to react? Does Russian democracy have some heft after all?
http://www.washingtonpost.com/world/russia-voters-turn-away-from-putin-party/2011/12/04/gIQA5MG5TO_story_1.html
http://www.theglobeandmail.com/news/world/russian-election-results-a-blow-to-putin/article2259498/
Well, if one defines whether democracy has any heft, by those opposing the United Russia party, consider that the second strongest party are the Communists, followed by the party led by Vladimir Zhirinovsky. I'd say that still kinda leaves democracy somewhere in the gutter.
Of course, there is likely quite a substantial number of followers of United Russia who believe in Putin/Medvedev, and genuinely believe that they are supporting democratic (and of course, nationalistic) principles.
He warned the west against interfering in the election last week so he must have suspected it was going to be close.
What I meant is whether the changing opinion by the Russian population will ultimately lead to a peaceful transition in government. Basically, how much will the decreased mandate put a check on Putin and his people? When the Russians eventually tire of Putin, will he cling to power or step down? Will his replacement be an actual alternative?
Well, remember, this election was for the Duma (like Congress), while presidential elections aren't until March. The worst that can happen there, is that United Russia might need a working partner in one of the other parties, and could probably easily find one.
A sub-50% vote for Putin just means a run-off election, and unless there is some really dynamic opposing personality (who is not already in jail), he would probably win that too. Pretty sure that not having a "mandate" of an overwhelming vote for him is much of a limiting factor in any sense over there. The president maintains enough power to get things done.
Will electoral sentiment change over time? Sure, maybe, but right now, opposing presidential prospects would probably envy the power and potential of the current U.S. Republican presidential hopefuls.
Excellent.
And surprising.
Not that surprising, this result was predicted. It also wouldn't change anything. Putin is very skillful at letting the steam off just enough, without actually compromising his power.
Putin himself is apparently much more popular than his party.
Quote from: Zanza on December 05, 2011, 02:12:19 AM
Putin himself is apparently much more popular than his party.
Although I've read that even he's losing his popularity. Though it's still pretty high.
Quote from: Jacob on December 04, 2011, 10:03:27 PM
The question is, I guess, how Putin's going to react? Does Russian democracy have some heft after all?
Considering communists got over 20% and rabid nationalist fascists nearly 15%, I wouldn't be too happy about it.
Quote from: Tonitrus on December 04, 2011, 11:10:26 PM
Quote from: Jacob on December 04, 2011, 10:03:27 PM
The results are coming in. The Russians are not as fond of Putin as he'd like to claim. Even with all the shenanigans, it seems United Russia is only getting around 50% of the vote.
The question is, I guess, how Putin's going to react? Does Russian democracy have some heft after all?
http://www.washingtonpost.com/world/russia-voters-turn-away-from-putin-party/2011/12/04/gIQA5MG5TO_story_1.html
http://www.theglobeandmail.com/news/world/russian-election-results-a-blow-to-putin/article2259498/
Well, if one defines whether democracy has any heft, by those opposing the United Russia party, consider that the second strongest party are the Communists, followed by the party led by Vladimir Zhirinovsky. I'd say that still kinda leaves democracy somewhere in the gutter.
Of course, there is likely quite a substantial number of followers of United Russia who believe in Putin/Medvedev, and genuinely believe that they are supporting democratic (and of course, nationalistic) principles.
Plus, given the results I saw (in the first link in the OP), his party still got roughly 2.5 times the number of votes as the second most popular party. Might not have an outright majority, but obviously they're the dominant party.
Quote from: Martinus on December 05, 2011, 05:27:24 AM
Quote from: Jacob on December 04, 2011, 10:03:27 PM
The question is, I guess, how Putin's going to react? Does Russian democracy have some heft after all?
Considering communists got over 20% and rabid nationalist fascists nearly 15%, I wouldn't be too happy about it.
Not entirely an accident. Keeping compliant yet repulsive parties as your nominal "opposition" is very much part of design.
In Russia, votes get you.
The shirtless pictures aren't working they used to.
Quote from: alfred russel on December 05, 2011, 01:16:31 PM
The shirtless pictures aren't working they used to.
He needs to hire Anderson Cooper as a body double.
Quote from: fahdiz on December 05, 2011, 01:20:54 PM
Quote from: alfred russel on December 05, 2011, 01:16:31 PM
The shirtless pictures aren't working they used to.
He needs to hire Anderson Cooper as a body double.
Does Anderson have a particularly good body? Anyway does Putin really want to be aligned with homosexuals?
Quote from: garbon on December 05, 2011, 01:32:16 PM
Does Anderson have a particularly good body? Anyway does Putin really want to be aligned with homosexuals?
Cooper also used a shirtless pic as a promotional photo.
Quote from: fahdiz on December 05, 2011, 01:35:29 PM
Quote from: garbon on December 05, 2011, 01:32:16 PM
Does Anderson have a particularly good body? Anyway does Putin really want to be aligned with homosexuals?
Cooper also used a shirtless pic as a promotional photo.
Gotcha.
Quote from: DGuller on December 05, 2011, 10:12:10 AM
Quote from: Martinus on December 05, 2011, 05:27:24 AM
Quote from: Jacob on December 04, 2011, 10:03:27 PM
The question is, I guess, how Putin's going to react? Does Russian democracy have some heft after all?
Considering communists got over 20% and rabid nationalist fascists nearly 15%, I wouldn't be too happy about it.
Not entirely an accident. Keeping compliant yet repulsive parties as your nominal "opposition" is very much part of design.
Yes. But I'm surprised Jacob is cheering this as a great victory for democracy or something.
Quote from: Martinus on December 05, 2011, 02:44:20 PMYes. But I'm surprised Jacob is cheering this as a great victory for democracy or something.
It's a victory for dissent, which is a start.
Except that dissenters write boring ass East European poetry and lack personal hygiene.
Quote from: DGuller on December 05, 2011, 10:12:10 AM
Quote from: Martinus on December 05, 2011, 05:27:24 AM
Quote from: Jacob on December 04, 2011, 10:03:27 PM
The question is, I guess, how Putin's going to react? Does Russian democracy have some heft after all?
Considering communists got over 20% and rabid nationalist fascists nearly 15%, I wouldn't be too happy about it.
Not entirely an accident. Keeping compliant yet repulsive parties as your nominal "opposition" is very much part of design.
Yeah, that's what I've read. The Kremlin is secretly and not so secretly supporting the extreme right to terrify the public. I don't normally like conspiracy theories, but Russia is different. It's a country that governed by ongoing conspiracies. No wonder the Russian people have such a poor ability to distinguish bullshit from reality. I would too if my government was so absurd and bizarre. It's easy to paranoid when the government
is actually conspiring against the people.
I think the Kremlin also support 'shell' moderate parties. I think the 'Just Russia' party that did a bit better than the Fascists is allegedly a Kremlin operation.
(https://languish.org/forums/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Fs-ak.buzzfed.com%2Fstatic%2Fenhanced%2Fterminal01%2F2010%2F11%2F14%2F21%2Fenhanced-buzz-16733-1289787411-5.jpg&hash=c965ee866bdeb5ad0b8fe54336490657f80092d3)
Quote from: DGuller on December 05, 2011, 10:12:10 AM
Quote from: Martinus on December 05, 2011, 05:27:24 AM
Quote from: Jacob on December 04, 2011, 10:03:27 PM
The question is, I guess, how Putin's going to react? Does Russian democracy have some heft after all?
Considering communists got over 20% and rabid nationalist fascists nearly 15%, I wouldn't be too happy about it.
Not entirely an accident. Keeping compliant yet repulsive parties as your nominal "opposition" is very much part of design.
This. The elections are very carefully designed to look to the West like "democracy is winning" in Russia, but in reality both major opposition parties are entirely ineffectual.
Quote from: Capetan Mihali on December 05, 2011, 04:21:59 PM
(https://languish.org/forums/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Fs-ak.buzzfed.com%2Fstatic%2Fenhanced%2Fterminal01%2F2010%2F11%2F14%2F21%2Fenhanced-buzz-16733-1289787411-5.jpg&hash=c965ee866bdeb5ad0b8fe54336490657f80092d3)
AND THEN HE BROKE ITS NECK
Quote from: fahdiz on December 05, 2011, 05:09:47 PMAND THEN HE BROKE ITS NECK
http://rt.com/news/bears-putin-far-east/
"People shouldn't fear bears. Bears should be afraid of people."
That is, as an aside, one ridiculously cute puppy.
Quote from: Sheilbh on December 05, 2011, 05:19:10 PM
Quote from: fahdiz on December 05, 2011, 05:09:47 PMAND THEN HE BROKE ITS NECK
http://rt.com/news/bears-putin-far-east/
"People shouldn't fear bears. Bears should be afraid of people."
QuoteWhile in the wildlife reserve, the Prime Minister watched the animals fishing in the salmon-rich Kuril Lake.
During the visit, one journalist asked whether it was safe to be close to the bears. Putin responded by suggesting it is the bears who are the vulnerable ones.
I wonder if he meant people in general or the bears are vulnerable because they are standing near Putin.
Quote from: fahdiz on December 05, 2011, 05:22:22 PM
That is, as an aside, one ridiculously cute puppy.
In Soviet Russia, Puppy hugs YOU!
(https://languish.org/forums/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Fs-ak.buzzfed.com%2Fstatic%2Fenhanced%2Fterminal01%2F2010%2F11%2F14%2F21%2Fenhanced-buzz-16842-1289787839-3.jpg&hash=ec115199990eb29b5d79977d6be408b1c4dd9bfc)
(https://languish.org/forums/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Fs-ak.buzzfed.com%2Fstatic%2Fenhanced%2Fterminal01%2F2010%2F11%2F14%2F20%2Fenhanced-buzz-16842-1289783674-1.jpg&hash=13241598e12fd8b0d0f79e4a224a520cc4c369fc)
(https://languish.org/forums/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Fs-ak.buzzfed.com%2Fstatic%2Fenhanced%2Fterminal01%2F2010%2F11%2F14%2F20%2Fenhanced-buzz-16941-1289784236-2.jpg&hash=1cbc2445565926b0eb9f71af7d465c22e837e285)
(https://languish.org/forums/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Fs-ak.buzzfed.com%2Fstatic%2Fenhanced%2Fterminal01%2F2010%2F11%2F14%2F20%2Fenhanced-buzz-16942-1289784273-1.jpg&hash=bff447d21d1aab45b8758391a5d98dc3dba2e377)
And a somewhat more intament moment with the aforementioned puppy...
(https://languish.org/forums/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.mentalfloss.com%2Fblogs%2Fwp-content%2Fuploads%2F2010%2F11%2Fputin-kissing-dog.jpg&hash=66c1b2b6cf72ec88ffc94290eabbbf389bf80d2e)
Quote from: Tonitrus on December 05, 2011, 08:48:38 PM
(https://languish.org/forums/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Fs-ak.buzzfed.com%2Fstatic%2Fenhanced%2Fterminal01%2F2010%2F11%2F14%2F20%2Fenhanced-buzz-16942-1289784273-1.jpg&hash=bff447d21d1aab45b8758391a5d98dc3dba2e377)
Know how I know he's evil?
That one's hilarious.
It is from the recently canned V tv series.
Quote from: Tonitrus on December 05, 2011, 08:50:24 PM
And a somewhat more intament moment with the aforementioned puppy...
Tim, you forgot to log out as Tonitrus before posting.
Quote from: Kleves on December 05, 2011, 11:26:53 PM
Quote from: Tonitrus on December 05, 2011, 08:50:24 PM
And a somewhat more intament moment with the aforementioned puppy...
Tim, you forgot to log out as Tonitrus before posting.
Meh, right now, my Russian is probably better than my English.
Those pics are awesome. Who doesn't love that guy?
Not to mention his personal photographer....
(https://languish.org/forums/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2F1.bp.blogspot.com%2F-yFehPYGg_Vg%2FTf-owK_39CI%2FAAAAAAAAD9s%2FfJ6Upg3-E5M%2Fs1600%2F04-yana-lapikova.jpg&hash=6aa68103cbce58d67e104777cd5251f2e6dd13b0)
(https://languish.org/forums/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Fstatic.ibnlive.com%2Fpix%2Fslideshow%2F06-2011%2Fmeet-yana-lapikova%2F05-yana-lapikova.jpg&hash=6099d559286eda44a8e2ca034af71ab9bad35634)
Quote from: Martinus on December 05, 2011, 02:44:20 PM
Yes. But I'm surprised Jacob is cheering this as a great victory for democracy or something.
You think that's me cheering, huh? :huh:
What do you look like cheering?
Quote from: Jacob on December 06, 2011, 02:13:36 AM
Quote from: Martinus on December 05, 2011, 02:44:20 PM
Yes. But I'm surprised Jacob is cheering this as a great victory for democracy or something.
You think that's me cheering, huh? :huh:
Remember who you're quoting. I certainly didn't get that impression.
Quote from: Jacob on December 06, 2011, 02:13:36 AM
Quote from: Martinus on December 05, 2011, 02:44:20 PM
Yes. But I'm surprised Jacob is cheering this as a great victory for democracy or something.
You think that's me cheering, huh? :huh:
Marti wants to see your pom-poms.
http://news.yahoo.com/russians-rally-vs-putin-election-fraud-163519670.html
QuoteTens of thousands of Muscovites thronged to a square across the river from the Kremlin on Saturday to protest alleged electoral fraud and urge an end to Prime Minister Vladimir Putin's rule, demands repeated at other rallies across this vast country in the largest public show of discontent in post-Soviet Russia.
The demonstrations come three months before Putin, who was president in 2000-2008 and effectively remained the country's leader while prime minister, is to seek a third presidential term. The massive outpouring of public anger challenges his image, supported by state-controlled TV channels, as a man backed by the majority of Russians.
That image was undercut by last Sunday's parliamentary elections, during which his United Party narrowly retained a majority of seats, but lost the unassailable two-thirds majority it had held in the previous parliament. Even that reduced performance was unearned, inflated by massive vote fraud, the opposition says, citing reports by local and international monitors of widespread violations. The reports of vote-rigging and the party's loss of seats acted as a catalyst for long-simmering discontent of many Russians.
"The falsifications that authorities are doing today have turned the country into a big theater, with clowns like in a circus," said Alexander Trofimov, one of the demonstrators at Bolotnaya Square, on an island in the Moscow River adjacent to the Kremlin.
Protests took place in more than 50 other cities from the Pacific Coast to the southwest, including a large demonstration estimated by police at 7,000 people in St. Petersburg.
Less than 100 demonstrators were reported arrested nationwide, far fewer than the hundreds taken into custody at smaller protests in the first days after the Dec. 4 national election. Police, who normally crack down fast and hard on any unauthorized gathering, even allowed a few hundred leftist radicals to conduct an unsanctioned protest on Moscow's Revolution Square just outside the Red Square.
In the Pacific city of Vladivostok, several hundred protesters rallied along a waterside avenue where some of Russia's Pacific Fleet warships are docked. They shouted "Putin's a louse" and some held a banner caricaturing United Russia's emblem, reading "The rats must go."
The Moscow rally, which lasted about three hours, was so sprawling that unbiased crowd estimates were difficult to make. Police put the attendance at 25,000; organizers claimed up to 150,000.
Whatever the precise number, it was a show of dismay that gave pause to the ruling elite. State-controlled TV channels that usually ignore or deride the opposition gave notable airtime to the protests. A top United Russia official, Andrei Isayev, acknowledged late Saturday that "expression of this point of view is extremely important and will be heard in the mass media, society and the state."
Officials in many cities, including Moscow, gave permission for the protests. But in what appeared to be an attempt to prevent young people from attending the protest, Moscow's school system declared Saturday afternoon a mandatory extra school day for grades 9 to 11. Students were told about the decision only on Friday, news reports said.
Hundreds of people were arrested in smaller protests earlier in the week. Some, including prominent opposition blogger Alexei Navalny, were sentenced to 15 days in jail. Another prominent opposition figure, Sergei Udaltsov, was hospitalized after his Monday arrest and was expected to be released Saturday, but the Interfax news agency said he was taken from the hospital to a court to face further charges.
Russian President Dmitry Medvedev conceded this week that election law may have been violated, and Putin suggested "dialogue with the opposition-minded" — breaking from his usual authoritarian image. The Kremlin has come under strong international pressure, with U.S. Secretary of State Hillary Clinton calling the vote unfair and urging an investigation into fraud. Putin in turn criticized Clinton and the United States for allegedly instigating protests and trying to undermine Russia.
If Saturday's protests are a success, the activists then face the challenge of long-term strategy. Even though U.S. Sen. John McCain recently tweeted to Putin that "the Arab Spring is coming to a neighborhood near you," things in Russia are not that simple.
The popular uprisings that brought down governments in Georgia in 2003, in Ukraine the next year, and in Egypt last spring all were significantly boosted by demonstrators being able to establish round-the-clock presences, notably in Cairo's Tahrir Square and the massive tent camp on Kiev's main avenue. Russian police would hardly tolerate anything similar.
Opposition figures indicated Friday that the next step would be to call another protest in Moscow for next weekend and make it even bigger. But staged events at regular intervals may be less effective than daily spontaneous protests.
Russia's opposition also is vulnerable to attacks on the websites and social media that have nourished the protests. This week, an official of Vkontakte, a Russian version of Facebook, reported pressure from the FSB, the KGB's main successor, to block access to opposition groups, but said his company refused.
On election day, the websites of a main independent radio station and the country's only independent election-monitoring group fell victim to denial-of-service hacker attacks.
#OccupyLenin
Looks like Putin is going to give some black eyes himself.
One interesting tidbit is that the developer and head of "Vkontake", the Russian clone of Facebook was asked by the FSB (former KGB) to block several accounts used by supporters of the opposition.
He responded by posting a scan of the letter on Twitter...
https://twitter.com/#!/durov/media/slideshow?url=http%3A%2F%2Ftwitpic.com%2F7q9u8o
...and then posted this picture as his "official reply" to the security services.*
(https://twitpic.com/show/iphone/7q9vtx)
*later elaborating that they will not block opposition accounts and that his site will remain apolitical.
Poor guy - I'll miss him. :(
Po-210 doesn't kill people. Russians kill people.