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General Category => Off the Record => Topic started by: jimmy olsen on September 30, 2011, 12:41:08 AM

Title: Chinese analyst calls for war in South China Sea
Post by: jimmy olsen on September 30, 2011, 12:41:08 AM
Seeing this kind of stuff put out through state run media suggests there is some support at higher levels for this view. Obviously this would be borderline suicide for China which doesn't have near the amount of power to successfully strike those countries in the face of US opposition.

Also comparing Vietnam and the Philippines to Georgia is laughable.

http://www.taipeitimes.com/News/front/archives/2011/09/30/2003514541

QuoteChinese analyst calls for war in South China Sea
'SEA OF FIRE':Long Tao wrote that Beijing should strike the Philippines and Vietnam, the two 'noisiest troublemakers,' to strike fear into other claimants
By J. Michael Cole  /  Staff Reporter

The Ministry of Foreign Affairs yesterday reaffirmed Taiwan's sovereignty over disputed islands in the South China Sea and called on all claimants to peacefully resolve the impasse.

The comments came after an editorial published in the Chinese-language edition of the Chinese Communist Party-run Global Times called on the Beijing government to declare war on Vietnam and the Philippines, two countries that have been proactive in defending their claims over the islets.


The op-ed, titled "A good time to take military action in the South China Sea," was penned by Long Tao (龍韜), a strategic analyst at the non-governmental China Energy Fund Committee and also at Zhejiang University's Non-Traditional Security and Peace Development Research Center.

"Do not worry about small-scale wars; it is the best way to release the potential of war. Play a few small battles and big battles can be avoided," Long wrote, adding that military action should be focused on striking the Philippines and Vietnam, "the two noisiest troublemakers," to achieve the effect of killing one chicken to scare the monkeys.

Through military action, he wrote, China could transform the South China Sea into "a sea of fire," an act made possible by the fact that "of the more than 1,000 oil rigs and four airfields on the Spratly Islands, none belongs to China."

On the risks of military action inviting intervention by the international community, the author took an optimistic note.

"The US has not withdrawn from the war on terrorism and the Middle East ... so it cannot afford to open a second front in the South China Sea," he wrote, adding that the "decisive shot" by Russia in the Caspian Sea in 2008 served as a model. "[Military] action by a big country in the international arena may result in initial shock, but in the long run, regional stability can be achieved through great power strategic reconciliation."

Taiwan, along with Vietnam, the Philippines, Malaysia, Vietnam, Brunei and China, claims sovereignty over archipelagos in the area, which are believed to have rich oil and natural gas resources.

Ministry of Foreign Affairs spokesman James Chang (章計平) said the ministry would not comment on Chinese media reports.

However, Chang reiterated the government's position that the Spratly Islands, Paracel Islands, Macclesfield Islands, Pratas Islands and nearby waters were part of Taiwan's territory and territorial waters, and called on claimants to peacefully resolve disputes surrounding the region through negotiation and dialogue.

Taiwan has always upheld the principle of shelving sovereignty disputes and jointly exploring resources based on the principle and spirit of the UN Convention on the Law of the Sea and the Declaration on the Conduct of Parties in the South China Sea, he said.

Taiwan does not recognize any resolution reached without its participation and has called for a multilateral mechanism for countries in the region to participate in discussions to seek peaceful development of the region, he added.

Additional reporting by Shih Hsiu-chuan
Title: Re: Chinese analyst calls for war in South China Sea
Post by: Monoriu on September 30, 2011, 01:05:36 AM
I'm sure someone in the US has written some variation of "nuke China/Iran" as well. 
Title: Re: Chinese analyst calls for war in South China Sea
Post by: Habbaku on September 30, 2011, 01:07:29 AM
Quote from: Monoriu on September 30, 2011, 01:05:36 AM
I'm sure someone in the US has written some variation of "nuke China/Iran" as well.

Around here, it's presidential candidates.

USA! USA! USA!
Title: Re: Chinese analyst calls for war in South China Sea
Post by: Zoupa on September 30, 2011, 01:28:04 AM
Quoteto achieve the effect of killing one chicken to scare the monkeys.

:mellow:
Title: Re: Chinese analyst calls for war in South China Sea
Post by: Josquius on September 30, 2011, 01:34:47 AM
I really don`t get China`s logic in claiming those islands far away from them.

I mean yeah, I got the logic of more land, more resources, grab, grab, grab. But the logic upon which they base their legal claim, for there has to be something, no matter how tenuous.
Title: Re: Chinese analyst calls for war in South China Sea
Post by: Habbaku on September 30, 2011, 01:42:25 AM
Quote from: Zoupa on September 30, 2011, 01:28:04 AM
Quoteto achieve the effect of killing one chicken to scare the monkeys.

:mellow:

Seems to be a common idiom in China.  Chiang Kai-Shek used it quite a bit.
Title: Re: Chinese analyst calls for war in South China Sea
Post by: Camerus on September 30, 2011, 02:16:59 AM
The idiom makes perfect sense if you just think about it for half a second.
Title: Re: Chinese analyst calls for war in South China Sea
Post by: Tamas on September 30, 2011, 03:56:47 AM
Quote from: Pitiful Pathos on September 30, 2011, 02:16:59 AM
The idiom makes perfect sense if you just think about it for half a second.

Dude, this is Languish.
Title: Re: Chinese analyst calls for war in South China Sea
Post by: Duque de Bragança on September 30, 2011, 03:57:45 AM
(https://languish.org/forums/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Fimg9.imageshack.us%2Fimg9%2F7902%2F96731897800.jpg&hash=925c2737540a317976c1c648cc38de0d4a748239)

Time to play.
Title: Re: Chinese analyst calls for war in South China Sea
Post by: Martinus on September 30, 2011, 03:59:44 AM
Quote from: Zoupa on September 30, 2011, 01:28:04 AM
Quoteto achieve the effect of killing one chicken to scare the monkeys.

:mellow:
:lol:
Title: Re: Chinese analyst calls for war in South China Sea
Post by: Warspite on September 30, 2011, 04:02:56 AM
Quote from: Tyr on September 30, 2011, 01:34:47 AM
I really don`t get China`s logic in claiming those islands far away from them.

I mean yeah, I got the logic of more land, more resources, grab, grab, grab. But the logic upon which they base their legal claim, for there has to be something, no matter how tenuous.

(https://languish.org/forums/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Ftalkvietnam.com%2Fuploads%2F2011%2F07%2Fsouth-china-sea-disputes-china-claimants-1-300x225.jpg&hash=a6c117b5a3cba71df7787c11bb14390c4febc88d)

THese are the claims. Speaking neutrally, China has no legal basis whatsoever; it preposterously claims archipelagic rights under UNCLOS, yet is about as much an archipelago as I am a loaf of bread.

But you can see the strategic logic - access to potential resources (though these days you're hard-pressed to find a patch of seabed anywhere that doesn't supposedly have untold riches sitting underneath) and control over some major sea lanes.
Title: Re: Chinese analyst calls for war in South China Sea
Post by: jimmy olsen on September 30, 2011, 04:16:01 AM
When I was in the Philippines I was surprised how many people brought up the Chinese threat and how the Philippines had to be closer allies with the US. 
Title: Re: Chinese analyst calls for war in South China Sea
Post by: Razgovory on September 30, 2011, 05:12:32 AM
Quote from: Monoriu on September 30, 2011, 01:05:36 AM
I'm sure someone in the US has written some variation of "nuke China/Iran" as well.

Yes, but in the US any idiot can say what they want.  When some idiot in China writes something like this it means either someone is asleep at the switch and didn't censor the loon or they want us to read it.

I think I see why Vietnam has been inching closer to the US over the last few years.
Title: Re: Chinese analyst calls for war in South China Sea
Post by: CountDeMoney on September 30, 2011, 05:29:15 AM
Quote"The US has not withdrawn from the war on terrorism and the Middle East ... so it cannot afford to open a second front in the South China Sea," he wrote,

Silly yellow person. The USN has a shitload of ordnance, just laying around, waiting to be used.
Title: Re: Chinese analyst calls for war in South China Sea
Post by: Ideologue on September 30, 2011, 06:23:40 AM
Quote from: CountDeMoney on September 30, 2011, 05:29:15 AM
Quote"The US has not withdrawn from the war on terrorism and the Middle East ... so it cannot afford to open a second front in the South China Sea," he wrote,

Silly yellow person. The USN has a shitload of ordnance, just laying around, waiting to be used.

I know, right?  It's like he thinks our ships are sitting in the middle of the desert fighting insurgents like that land carrier from U.N. Squadron.

Also, Russia ain't gonna care when we flip through to the "People's Republic of China" section of OPLAN 8044.

(Or whatever it's called now.  Has anyone ever won two Nobel Peace Prizes?  This could be Obama's chance. :) )
Title: Re: Chinese analyst calls for war in South China Sea
Post by: Darth Wagtaros on September 30, 2011, 12:30:46 PM
People's General was a good game.

Isn't a Chinese non-government agency a bit of an oxymoron? 
Title: Re: Chinese analyst calls for war in South China Sea
Post by: Siege on September 30, 2011, 03:15:06 PM
I say let's fight now before they become stronger.
Title: Re: Chinese analyst calls for war in South China Sea
Post by: AnchorClanker on September 30, 2011, 03:23:05 PM
I miss SSI.   :(

China is being China.  These claims aren't new - and it's not like PACOM hasn't been planning for it, either.  :contract:

http://www.amazon.com/7th-Fleet/dp/B002IXUNMM (http://www.amazon.com/7th-Fleet/dp/B002IXUNMM)
Title: Re: Chinese analyst calls for war in South China Sea
Post by: Razgovory on September 30, 2011, 03:35:03 PM
Quote from: Siege on September 30, 2011, 03:15:06 PM
I say let's fight now before they become stronger.

Which side are you planning to be on?
Title: Re: Chinese analyst calls for war in South China Sea
Post by: Iormlund on September 30, 2011, 03:37:01 PM
I enjoyed People's a lot. Those Chinese engineers were absurdly strong, though. You could make your entire army of tons of those, a couple air defenses and a handful of arty.

Anyway, warring with your neighbors is not the best signal you want to make when your entire economy depends on foreign investment.
Title: Re: Chinese analyst calls for war in South China Sea
Post by: Razgovory on September 30, 2011, 03:46:53 PM
Quote from: Iormlund on September 30, 2011, 03:37:01 PM
I enjoyed People's a lot. Those Chinese engineers were absurdly strong, though. You could make your entire army of tons of those, a couple air defenses and a handful of arty.

Anyway, warring with your neighbors is not the best signal you want to make when your entire economy depends on foreign investment.

Yeah, the Chinese were way overpowered.  Unfortunately you never get to invade China.  I guess once you have beaten them back across Russia and drove them out of South East Asia they feel bad enough and everyone just decides to let bygones be bygones.
Title: Re: Chinese analyst calls for war in South China Sea
Post by: Habsburg on September 30, 2011, 04:09:17 PM
I feel as though they'd perform better killing more students and Tibetians, rather than engage in this sort of advanced doctrine. 
Title: Re: Chinese analyst calls for war in South China Sea
Post by: Maximus on September 30, 2011, 04:23:38 PM
Quote from: Tyr on September 30, 2011, 01:34:47 AM
I really don`t get China`s logic in claiming those islands far away from them.

I mean yeah, I got the logic of more land, more resources, grab, grab, grab. But the logic upon which they base their legal claim, for there has to be something, no matter how tenuous.

The same logic as their claim on Taiwan. "because we want it"
Title: Re: Chinese analyst calls for war in South China Sea
Post by: HisMajestyBOB on September 30, 2011, 05:34:36 PM
Quote from: jimmy olsen on September 30, 2011, 04:16:01 AM
When I was in the Philippines I was surprised how many people brought up the Chinese threat and how the Philippines had to be closer allies with the US.

Funny, I heard the same thing in Vietnam  :ph34r:

Also, it's not like there isn't precedent for China using force to take islands (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Battle_of_the_Paracel_Islands) in the SCS. I suspect that China has refused to negotiate over these islands because they know that their position will most likely be getting stronger, economically and militarily, as time goes on, and there is the future option of using force to claim the islands.
Title: Re: Chinese analyst calls for war in South China Sea
Post by: Tonitrus on September 30, 2011, 06:25:03 PM
Quote from: Warspite on September 30, 2011, 04:02:56 AM
Quote from: Tyr on September 30, 2011, 01:34:47 AM
I really don`t get China`s logic in claiming those islands far away from them.

I mean yeah, I got the logic of more land, more resources, grab, grab, grab. But the logic upon which they base their legal claim, for there has to be something, no matter how tenuous.

(https://languish.org/forums/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Ftalkvietnam.com%2Fuploads%2F2011%2F07%2Fsouth-china-sea-disputes-china-claimants-1-300x225.jpg&hash=a6c117b5a3cba71df7787c11bb14390c4febc88d)

THese are the claims. Speaking neutrally, China has no legal basis whatsoever; it preposterously claims archipelagic rights under UNCLOS, yet is about as much an archipelago as I am a loaf of bread.

But you can see the strategic logic - access to potential resources (though these days you're hard-pressed to find a patch of seabed anywhere that doesn't supposedly have untold riches sitting underneath) and control over some major sea lanes.

Looks like the Russian claim on everything under the Arctic Ocean.  Heck, they don't even bother with islands.
Title: Re: Chinese analyst calls for war in South China Sea
Post by: Legbiter on September 30, 2011, 07:42:12 PM
I dunno, if they go to war over this won't the USN just sink all their ships, cut China off from the sea and starve their seaboard cities within the year?
Title: Re: Chinese analyst calls for war in South China Sea
Post by: Razgovory on September 30, 2011, 07:49:12 PM
Quote from: Tonitrus on September 30, 2011, 06:25:03 PM

Looks like the Russian claim on everything under the Arctic Ocean.  Heck, they don't even bother with islands.

I'm surprised that they had the restraint to not simply claim the Philippines and Indonesia as well.
Title: Re: Chinese analyst calls for war in South China Sea
Post by: Crazy_Ivan80 on October 01, 2011, 03:48:30 AM
Quote from: Razgovory on September 30, 2011, 07:49:12 PM
Quote from: Tonitrus on September 30, 2011, 06:25:03 PM

Looks like the Russian claim on everything under the Arctic Ocean.  Heck, they don't even bother with islands.

I'm surprised that they had the restraint to not simply claim the Philippines and Indonesia as well.

baby steps
Title: Re: Chinese analyst calls for war in South China Sea
Post by: Zanza on October 01, 2011, 04:46:45 AM
Quote from: Iormlund on September 30, 2011, 03:37:01 PMAnyway, warring with your neighbors is not the best signal you want to make when your entire economy depends on foreign investment.
The Chinese have an extremely high capital investment rate, so much so that many people think they over-invest. So their dependence on foreign investment is not that high.
Title: Re: Chinese analyst calls for war in South China Sea
Post by: The Minsky Moment on October 01, 2011, 12:24:28 PM
They are dependent on international trade, however.
Title: Re: Chinese analyst calls for war in South China Sea
Post by: Josquius on October 01, 2011, 10:36:02 PM
Quote from: Maximus on September 30, 2011, 04:23:38 PM
Quote from: Tyr on September 30, 2011, 01:34:47 AM
I really don`t get China`s logic in claiming those islands far away from them.

I mean yeah, I got the logic of more land, more resources, grab, grab, grab. But the logic upon which they base their legal claim, for there has to be something, no matter how tenuous.

The same logic as their claim on Taiwan. "because we want it"
There's a lot of logic in Taiwan, it is historically a part of China. Ish.
Title: Re: Chinese analyst calls for war in South China Sea
Post by: Maximus on October 01, 2011, 10:46:38 PM
It was never part of the peoples' republic.
Title: Re: Chinese analyst calls for war in South China Sea
Post by: Ideologue on October 02, 2011, 11:26:37 AM
It was part of Japan though, and more recently than it was part of China (RoC excepted).  Shall the Japanese Empire be reborn?
Title: Re: Chinese analyst calls for war in South China Sea
Post by: The Minsky Moment on October 03, 2011, 12:02:23 PM
Quote from: Maximus on October 01, 2011, 10:46:38 PM
It was never part of the peoples' republic.

Begs the question.
Title: Re: Chinese analyst calls for war in South China Sea
Post by: HisMajestyBOB on October 03, 2011, 12:52:08 PM
Quote from: Ideologue on October 02, 2011, 11:26:37 AM
It was part of Japan though, and more recently than it was part of China (RoC excepted).  Shall the Japanese Empire be reborn?

It all rightfully belongs to Mongolia.
The Great Khan-President will expect tribute payment by Friday.