It's not looking good to put it charitably.
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052702303654804576343580750549362.html?mod=WSJASIA_newsreel_world
QuoteFighting Spurs Fears of War in Yemen
* MIDDLE EAST NEWS
* MAY 25, 2011
By HAKIM ALMASMARI in San'a, Yemen, MARGARET COKER in Dubai and ADAM ENTOUS in Washington
Yemen edged closer to civil war on Tuesday as opposition fighters seized government buildings and Washington stepped up pressure on the embattled president, Ali Abdullah Saleh, to step aside.
The deteriorating security situation in the capital, San'a, fueled U.S. and European fears about the safety of embassy staff and of a broader conflict that the government might not be able to dial back. Western counterterrorism officials say the instability gives Yemen-based al Qaeda militants greater freedom to plot attacks.
At least two of the country's leading tribal dignitaries were killed when missiles struck the compound of Sheikh Sadeq Al-Ahmar, the leader of Yemen's largest tribe, who is supporting the opposition's calls for Mr. Saleh to leave office. A group of tribal elders had gathered in the compound to try to broker a cease-fire between his Hashid tribesmen and pro-Saleh security forces.
An aide to Sheikh Ahmar said at least five other tribal elders were wounded in the missile strike. The Hashids blamed the strike on the government's Central Security forces, which are under the command of President Saleh's nephew.
Sheikh Ahmar himself wasn't injured.
A senior Ministry of Interior official accused the Hashid tribesman of fomenting civil war and said gunmen loyal to Sheikh Ahmar killed 14 government troops Tuesday.
Hashid tribesmen have seized control of the main Ministry of Interior building as well as the Ministry of Education, located in the center of the capital, residents said. Hundreds of additional men from the Hashid clan were expected to descend on San'a later Tuesday evening, preparing for further battles.
"I fear it's begun," said Christopher Boucek, a Yemen expert at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace in Washington, of widespread violence that could lead to civil war.
The missile attack against Sheikh Ahmar hardened tribal opposition to the president, whom the tribal elders trying to mediate the crisis accused of flaunting the basic rules of their tribal culture.
Most of Yemen's major tribes were involved in the cease-fire negotiations—including the head of the president's own clan—and mediators said they had spoken to the president by phone multiple times ahead of the attack.
"We are assured now that Saleh does not want to stop the chaos and attacks," one of the mediators said.
To the chagrin of the Obama administration, Mr. Saleh has repeatedly balked at signing an Arab-brokered deal that would end his 33 years in power and give him immunity from prosecution.
John Brennan, the White House's top counterterrorism adviser, warned Mr. Saleh in a telephone call over the weekend that "we're going to have to consider possible other steps" if he refuses to sign the pact, an administration official said.
Officials said the White House was considering using the United Nations to press Mr. Saleh to step aside. The effort, under discussion among the U.S. and its Arab and European partners, would likely begin with coordinated statements at the U.N. calling on Mr. Saleh to agree to the Arab-sponsored transition deal.
If Mr. Saleh refuses to step down and the clashes intensify, the U.S. and its allies could consider additional steps, including targeted sanctions against the president, his family or others, if they are deemed to be involved in the crackdowns, officials said.
The moves by the U.S. reflect a dramatic about-face in relations with Mr. Saleh, whom the Obama administration until recently courted as an important ally against al Qaeda.
The Pentagon has sharply increased support for Mr. Saleh's security forces, providing them with arms and counterterrorism training to help combat al Qaeda's most active affiliate, Yemen-based al Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula. Mr. Saleh's son and two nephews command the elite units that have been the primary beneficiaries of U.S. training and funding.
Any possible sanctions against the Yemeni government would likely be aimed at individuals to avoid worsening the country's already dire economic situation.
The U.S. has pushed for similar sanctions against leaders in Libya and Syria, but it isn't clear to what extent Mr. Saleh has been personally ordering the crackdown in his country.
"What we don't want to do is take action that will hurt the Yemeni people," an Obama administration official said. U.S. humanitarian aid and counterterrorism support would continue because "these are meant to help the Yemeni people, not help Saleh personally," the official added.
At the same time, the official said, "We think it's in everyone's interest for Saleh to go."
What's the terrain there?
I am asking because: why should we care? If some local version of the Taliban takes over, the US could bomb any training camps they discover into oblivion, can't they? Yemen looks to be an utterly failed state, and almost completely worthless in terms of strategic position and natural resources
Yemen isn't worthless in terms of strategic position. For one thing, it controls part of the Bab-el-Mandeb.
Another failed state is yet more recruitment potential for the terrorists, also more piracy in that important shipping zone. That's apart from any altruistic interest we might have in the well-being of 25m people.
I'm not optimistic, they are breeding like rabbits and are pretty close to a Malthusian trap.
I thought they already were in civil war.
Quote from: Caliga on May 25, 2011, 04:56:03 AM
Yemen isn't worthless in terms of strategic position. For one thing, it controls part of the Bab-el-Mandeb.
:yes: And stretches of Betty-Boop.
Quote from: Richard Hakluyt on May 25, 2011, 05:21:17 AM
Another failed state is yet more recruitment potential for the terrorists, also more piracy in that important shipping zone. That's apart from any altruistic interest we might have in the well-being of 25m people.
I'm not optimistic, they are breeding like rabbits and are pretty close to a Malthusian trap.
Agreed. And a radical type govt could come to power, to further mess things up.
Quote from: Tamas on May 25, 2011, 02:39:27 AMYemen looks to be an utterly failed state, and almost completely worthless in terms of strategic position and natural resources
It's this sort of strategic insight that assured Hungary a place next to Italy in the annals of modern warfare.
Quote from: Neil on May 25, 2011, 07:56:08 AM
Quote from: Tamas on May 25, 2011, 02:39:27 AMYemen looks to be an utterly failed state, and almost completely worthless in terms of strategic position and natural resources
It's this sort of strategic insight that assured Hungary a place next to Italy in the annals of modern warfare.
:lol:
I am just growing tired of worrying about all these camelfuckers and their Polack-like inability to maintain a functional state.
Quote from: Razgovory on May 25, 2011, 07:16:22 AM
I thought they already were in civil war.
Correct, it started in 2004 with the rebellion of the Northern tribes.
What we have now is an expansion.
Quote from: Tamas
What's the terrain there?
In the interior, arid/desert tiles. In the West, lush farmland/palm tiles.
It has some oil, but also deposits of metals, from Nickel to Gold.
Much trade with Africa, though of limited volume (Yemen is a sh*thole for us, but a paradise for the Somalis and Sudanese).
Quote from: Martim Silva on May 25, 2011, 11:07:34 AM
Quote from: Razgovory on May 25, 2011, 07:16:22 AM
I thought they already were in civil war.
Correct, it started in 2004 with the rebellion of the Northern tribes.
What we have now is an expansion.
Quote from: Tamas
What's the terrain there?
In the interior, arid/desert tiles. In the West, lush farmland/palm tiles.
It has some oil, but also deposits of metals, from Nickel to Gold.
Much trade with Africa, though of limited volume (Yemen is a sh*thole for us, but a paradise for the Somalis and Sudanese).
Aren't they running out of water and oil?
New article. All nonessential diplomatic staff ordered out by the US.
http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/43176472/ns/world_news-mideast_n_africa/
Fighting's really heating up.
http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/43277769/ns/world_news-mideast_n_africa/
QuoteThousands flee Sanaa after attack on Yemen's President Saleh
Leader survives assault on palace; top officials flown to Saudi Arabia for medical treatment
msnbc.com news services
updated 1 hour 10 minutes ago
SANAA, Yemen — Thousands fled Sanaa on Saturday a day after President Ali Abdullah Saleh was wounded in an attack on his compound that marked a new stage in fighting which has brought Yemen closer to civil war.
Saleh's forces retaliated by shelling the homes of the leaders of a powerful tribal federation fighting an urban battle to oust Saleh.
The clashes have killed nearly 200 people over the last two weeks and turned areas of Sanaa into ghost towns after residents fled for safety.
Global powers are worried that Yemen, home to al-Qaida in the Arabian Peninsula (AQAP) and bordering the world's biggest oil exporter Saudi Arabia, could become a failed state, raising risks for regional security and Gulf oil shipments.
Several officials were injured and seven killed when shells hit a mosque in the presidential palace, state media said. A senior diplomat said the prime minister, his deputy, the parliament speaker and other aides were hurt in the attack.
On Saturday, five top members of the government were sent to Saudi Arabia for treatment of wounds they suffered in the attack, the official government news agency reported.
Saleh, a tenacious political survivor who has clung to power for nearly 33 years, said in an audio address late on Friday that an "outlaw gang" was behind the attack, which he blamed on the Hashed tribe led by Sadeq al-Ahmar. A tribal spokesman denied responsibility.
"I salute our armed forces and the security forces for standing up firmly to confront this challenge by an outlaw gang that has nothing to do with the so-called youth revolution," Saleh said. "Seven officers were martyred."
The deputy information minister said that Saleh, 69, had suffered minor injuries but was in good health. The president has not been seen in public since the attack.
'Bullets everywhere'
Tribal and medical officials said Saturday that 10 tribesmen were killed and 35 injured in overnight fighting in Sanaa's Hassaba neighborhood, headquarters of opposition Sheik Sadeq al-Ahmar. A tribal leader said street fighting lasted until dawn. Many of the compound's buildings and surrounding houses have already been heavily damaged by days of bombardment.
Government and rebel forces exchanged rocket fire, damaging a contested police station. The rockets rained down on streets housing government buildings that had been taken over by tribesmen.
Intermittent blasts and sporadic fire fights with automatic weapons punctuated the predawn hours and roads were clogged when the sun rose by civilians trying to flee the fighting that has engulfed more parts of the city.
"Bullets are everywhere, explosions terrified us. There's no chance to stay anymore," said Sanaa resident Ali Ahmed.
Nearly 400 people have been killed since a popular uprising against Saleh began in January, inspired by the movements in Tunisia and Egypt that toppled their long-standing leaders.
The battles are being fought on several fronts, with popular protests in several cities and military units breaking away from Saleh to protect the protesters.
There has also been a nearly week-long campaign in Zinjibar by locals and Saleh's soldiers to oust Islamist and al-Qaida militants who seized the southern coastal city near a shipping lane where about 3 million barrels of oil pass daily.
Saleh has exasperated his former U.S. and Saudi allies who had once seen him as a key partner in efforts to combat al Qaida in the Arabian Peninsula (AQAP).
Defying world pressure, Saleh has thrice reneged on a deal brokered by Gulf states for him to quit in return for immunity from prosecution, even as he loses support at home.
Reuters and The Associated Press contributed to this report.
Quote from: The Brain on May 25, 2011, 07:18:27 AM
Quote from: Caliga on May 25, 2011, 04:56:03 AM
Yemen isn't worthless in terms of strategic position. For one thing, it controls part of the Bab-el-Mandeb.
:yes: And stretches of Betty-Boop.
Within striking distance of both the Baba Ganoush and the Howie Mandel.
Yemeni President, Saleh, has 'fled' to Saudi Arabia for treatment to the injuries he sustained during the shelling of his residence.
VP has taken over, AJ are reporting he's seeking to scale back the confrontation with the fighters of the most powerful tribes.
I dunno, but it seems that posting a topic on possible Civil War in Yemen is like posting on possible corruption in Russia.
Burnside is raising militia.
Just so long as the new government is willing to engage in state-sponsored terror against Israel, I'm happy.
When has Yemen not been in a state of civil war? :mellow:
Quote from: Sheilbh on June 05, 2011, 04:10:58 AM
When has Yemen not been in a state of civil war? :mellow:
when it was British?
This will impact the price of dates. :mad:
More injustice against single people.
Damn yeomen.
Innocent people are suffering, and all you can think of is the price of dates?
Regardless, I doubt this will really influence the cost of a big mac, DON JUAN.
Quote from: Crazy_Ivan80 on June 05, 2011, 05:03:31 AM
Quote from: Sheilbh on June 05, 2011, 04:10:58 AM
When has Yemen not been in a state of civil war? :mellow:
when it was British?
The brits only ever bothered with Aden. They left the hinterland in peace as long as they washed before coming to market.
Quote from: Sheilbh on June 05, 2011, 04:10:58 AM
When has Yemen not been in a state of civil war? :mellow:
When you were predicting a couple of months ago, that this crisis would end with a political solution, when I was warning of civil war ? :hmm:
Quote from: Slargos on June 05, 2011, 05:37:51 AM
Innocent people are suffering, and all you can think of is the price of dates?
We all have our crosses to bear. Or in your case, burn.
Quote from: Norgy on June 05, 2011, 09:26:54 AM
Quote from: Slargos on June 05, 2011, 05:37:51 AM
Innocent people are suffering, and all you can think of is the price of dates?
We all have our crosses to bear. Or in your case, burn.
:rolleyes:
You burn the midnight oil, I burn the midnight cross. It's all just tinder in the end.
Don't swedes have this own way of displaying intolerance?
Quote from: Razgovory on June 05, 2011, 12:16:12 PM
Don't swedes have this own way of displaying intolerance?
like this
(https://languish.org/forums/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.dagsavisen.no%2Fmultimedia%2Farchive%2F00051%2Fmalm__51728q.jpg&hash=850129ab44b579b5eaf424a4991b82c92d4b7d31)
and thats just for inviting some jews over for tennis...
I meant something ethnically Swedish. Something for Slargos.
They burn IKEA bookcases.
The cross-burning phase was before my time. 80s, IIRC.
And it was very limited.
Though interestingly, the last cross-burning took place in my relatively small home town. :hmm:
Quote from: Viking on June 05, 2011, 12:31:30 PM
Quote from: Razgovory on June 05, 2011, 12:16:12 PM
Don't swedes have this own way of displaying intolerance?
like this
(https://languish.org/forums/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.dagsavisen.no%2Fmultimedia%2Farchive%2F00051%2Fmalm__51728q.jpg&hash=850129ab44b579b5eaf424a4991b82c92d4b7d31)
and thats just for inviting some jews over for tennis...
I love it. Not a white face in the whole crowd, yet this has become "Swedish". :D
You're the one who let them into the country.
Quote from: Neil on June 05, 2011, 01:53:29 PM
You're the one who let them into the country.
Well
I didn't vote for them.
I've been lobbying against this travesty all my life. Short of physical violence I have done my part.
Of course, one could argue that it is indeed my duty to act more forcefully, and it is indeed my suspicion that I have let down my people.
It's the million dollar question. Do you still have a duty towards a people that has forsaken you?
Oh, I was unaware Sweden moved out from underneath you leaving you in Norway. I assumed that you had moved to Norway. I bet that was traumatic. I can't imagine my reaction if I woke up one morning and found that Missouri had snuck off in the night leaving me in Texas.
Quote from: Slargos on June 05, 2011, 01:58:13 PM
Well I didn't vote for them.
I've been lobbying against this travesty all my life. Short of physical violence I have done my part.
Well there's your problem.
Freikorps don't form themselves, you know.
Quote from: jamesww on June 05, 2011, 07:06:16 AMWhen you were predicting a couple of months ago, that this crisis would end with a political solution, when I was warning of civil war ? :hmm:
But that wouldn't end the Shia revolt or the problems with Al-Qaeda. I'm surprised this has ended with shells in Sanaa but I don't think Yemen's ever been really preaceful.
Quote from: Habbaku on June 05, 2011, 05:29:48 PM
Quote from: Slargos on June 05, 2011, 01:58:13 PM
Well I didn't vote for them.
I've been lobbying against this travesty all my life. Short of physical violence I have done my part.
Well there's your problem. Freikorps don't form themselves, you know.
You make a fair point, but I've already noted that I have quite possibly failed in this duty. :sleep:
I think we can all agree that Slargos is a failure.
Quote from: Razgovory on June 11, 2011, 04:19:27 PM
I think we can all agree that Slargos is a failure.
:lol:
Man, you keep throwing stones in your little glass cellar.
Looks like things are intensifying again.
http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/44575857/ns/world_news-mideast_n_africa/
QuoteYemen protesters overrun base of presidential guard
Violence re-erupted in Sanaa on Sunday, death toll since then nearly 50
msnbc.com news services
updated 9/19/2011 2:18:21 PM ET 2011-09-19T18:18:21
SANAA, Yemen — Thousands of protesters armed with sticks and backed by armed military defectors overran a base of the elite Presidential Guards in Yemen's capital as fighting erupted across much of Sanaa on Monday. The death toll for the worst violence in months rose to nearly 50 in two days of clashes.
The protesters, joined by soldiers from the rebel 1st Armored Division, stormed the base without firing a single shot and seized a large number of firearms, according to witnesses and security officials. The anti-government force used sandbags to erect barricades as they advanced, providing their allied troops with the shelter they needed in case they took fire from inside the base. Republican Guards' troops did not fire at the protesters and eventually fled, leaving their weapons behind.
Story: Yemeni forces open fire on protesters, 26 killed
Violence has flared anew in Yemen in frustration after President Ali Abdullah Saleh dashed hopes raised by the U.S. last week that he was about to relinquish power after 33 years of autocratic rule.
At least 23 were killed on Monday and 26 on Sunday, almost all of them protesters, according to security and medical officials. Dozens have been wounded.
PhotoBlog: Snipers shoot protesters in Yemen
Yemeni troops fired into the air to disperse anti-government protesters Monday and two people were killed, including a small child, and several others were rushed to hospital with gunshot wounds.
One man was pronounced dead while several others had a variety of gunshot wounds, according to a Reuters witness.
"Help me, oh my God look at his slaughter!" said the father of a boy who died from a gunshot wound to the head.
"We were just in the car on Hayel Street (near the fighting). I stepped out to get some food and left my two boys in the car and I heard the older one scream. The little one was shot straight through the head."
The fall of the base into protesters' hands is a significant development in the seven-month-old uprising against Saleh, who went to Saudi Arabia for medical treatment after a June attack on his Sanaa compound and has not returned to Yemen since.
It signals what could be the start of a final showdown between the Republican Guards, led by Saleh's son and heir apparent Ahmed, and the soldiers of the 1st Armored Division, another elite outfit that has fought in all of Yemen's wars over the past two decades, and their tribal allies in the capital.
The Republican Guards and the Special Forces, also led by the president's son, have long been thought to be the regime's last line of defense and Monday's events could significantly help the protesters' cause against the regime.
The 1st Armored Division, along with its commander, mutinied and joined the protesters about six months ago, dealing a serious blow to Saleh's efforts to cling on to power in the face of the popular uprising.
"It was unbelievable," said protester Ameen Ali Saleh of storming the base on the west side of a major road that runs through the heart of Sanaa. "We acted like it was us who had the weapons, not the soldiers."
To other protesters, the fall of the base may signal the near-collapse of the regime.
"Now the remainder of the regime will finally crumble," said another protester, Mohammed al-Wasaby. "Our will is more effective than weapons. The soldiers loyal to Saleh just ran away."
That's not really news Tim. Violence in Yemen is a dog bites man story.
Quote
It's not looking good to put it charitably.
I disagree, I think a change of regime there would be a good thing.
Quote from: Tyr on September 19, 2011, 07:22:53 PM
Quote
It's not looking good to put it charitably.
I disagree, I think a change of regime there would be a good thing.
Unlike Libya or Egypt, it looks like there's a good chance of Taliban types taking over there.
How would we know the difference?
Indeed. The place is already anarchic and constantly attacking the west (pirates) already. At least a Talibanesque could bring some stability, and then, when the people realise it wasn`t the best idea in the world, they can have a do over.