Oh shit did the Lettowists win a smashing victory in Scotland? Will Haggis now have to be imported into England?
Did the AV thing get smashed?
Anything about these latest British elections I should take note of?
Did they vote for FREEEEEEDOOOOOOMMMM?
The SNP's leader is the only first class politician in Scottish politics. The SNP have done pretty well as a minority govet in the last 4 years and have capaigned really well. They've really softened their independence rhetoric although its still a major policy.
Looks like they will hold a referendum in a couple of years time. Current polls suggest that there is not much appetite for independence. No surprise really. They run their domestic affairs and are subsidised billions by England - what's not to like? The question is how far they can game the system before the English get sick of them.
Maybe they should put that line with the 'rebellious Scots to crush' back into 'God Save The Queen'.
Still, I don't think that the sovereigntist movement in Scotland is serious, much like the one in Quebec. Sure, they use the rhetoric of nationalism, but ultimately it's all about economically disadvantaged areas using the threat of secession to fleece the better off parts of a country. While the rank and file might be nationalists, the people running the show are not, and are in fact socialists.
A vote for the SNP isn't a vote for independance. Most SNP voters vote SNP because of their other policies.
Very interesting elections.
I would imagine that Salmond will not press for a referendum on independence for Scotland, he would lose and he's far too canny a politician to fall for it. Instead he will do things with the English subsidies that maximise irritation here and firm his base up there.
It looks like AV will be rejected.
The Lib-Dems have been hammered and the tories have actually increased their number of council seats held. Cameron has comprehensively exploited and out-manoeuvred Clegg.
Labour has gained council seats in England, is completely dominant in Wales but must be very worried about the result in Scotland. I don't think that they have done well at all and need to take a look at their campaign, "the tories are nasty" is not going to cut it for them.
Quote from: Richard Hakluyt on May 06, 2011, 10:02:41 AM
Very interesting elections.
I would imagine that Salmond will not press for a referendum on independence for Scotland, he would lose and he's far too canny a politician to fall for it. Instead he will do things with the English subsidies that maximise irritation here and firm his base up there.
It looks like AV will be rejected.
The Lib-Dems have been hammered and the tories have actually increased their number of council seats held. Cameron has comprehensively exploited and out-manoeuvred Clegg.
Labour has gained council seats in England, is completely dominant in Wales but must be very worried about the result in Scotland. I don't think that they have done well at all and need to take a look at their campaign, "the tories are nasty" is not going to cut it for them.
Spot on, except it will be hard for Salmon to get out of holding a referendum. Not to say that he won't manage it. I don't like the SNP much, but he really is an exceptional politician.
Quote from: Neil on May 06, 2011, 09:46:31 AM
Maybe they should put that line with the 'rebellious Scots to crush' back into 'God Save The Queen'.
Still, I don't think that the sovereigntist movement in Scotland is serious, much like the one in Quebec. Sure, they use the rhetoric of nationalism, but ultimately it's all about economically disadvantaged areas using the threat of secession to fleece the better off parts of a country. While the rank and file might be nationalists, the people running the show are not, and are in fact socialists.
But are they: National Socialists? :hmm:
Unfortunately, this is a bad time for a referendum. It won't pass- you know the woman vote will be easily swayed by the royal wedding, and pro-independence has never had a clear majority anyhow. But they have to piss or get off the pot- they can't win a majority in the parliament and NOT put out the referendum. So it will be beaten, unless there is a merciful providence watching out for Scotland.
If he follows the Quebec example he'll find there's little actual downside to holding a referendum. You get to stand up for your cause even if you lose.
Quote from: Barrister on May 06, 2011, 02:20:51 PM
If he follows the Quebec example he'll find there's little actual downside to holding a referendum. You get to stand up for your cause even if you lose.
Except that last time, they nearly won.
Quote from: Barrister on May 06, 2011, 02:20:51 PM
If he follows the Quebec example he'll find there's little actual downside to holding a referendum. You get to stand up for your cause even if you lose.
They are very uncommon here; if he lost a referendum another would not even be considered for at least 25 years.
Quote from: Lettow77 on May 06, 2011, 02:08:26 PM
Quote from: Neil on May 06, 2011, 09:46:31 AM
Maybe they should put that line with the 'rebellious Scots to crush' back into 'God Save The Queen'.
Still, I don't think that the sovereigntist movement in Scotland is serious, much like the one in Quebec. Sure, they use the rhetoric of nationalism, but ultimately it's all about economically disadvantaged areas using the threat of secession to fleece the better off parts of a country. While the rank and file might be nationalists, the people running the show are not, and are in fact socialists.
But are they: National Socialists? :hmm:
Unfortunately, this is a bad time for a referendum. It won't pass- you know the woman vote will be easily swayed by the royal wedding, and pro-independence has never had a clear majority anyhow. But they have to piss or get off the pot- they can't win a majority in the parliament and NOT put out the referendum. So it will be beaten, unless there is a merciful providence watching out for Scotland.
If God is merciful it will fail. As it is expected to. There's more to being a country than just waving a flag around, independance would be economic suicide for Scotland.
Quote from: Richard Hakluyt on May 06, 2011, 02:23:42 PM
Quote from: Barrister on May 06, 2011, 02:20:51 PM
If he follows the Quebec example he'll find there's little actual downside to holding a referendum. You get to stand up for your cause even if you lose.
They are very uncommon here; if he lost a referendum another would not even be considered for at least 25 years.
They are exceedingly rare here as well.
Other than the 2 Quebec independence referendums, there was a national referendum in '92 on constitutional change (it failed), and BC had a referendum on proportional representation.
That's been it.
So yeah you hold a referendum now, you won't get another crack for at least a decade, maybe two. But so what.
Like I said there's almost no downside to holding a referendum on independence, as there are few consequences to losing one. And you might just win (the '95 vote people forget saw the PQ trailing badly until Bouchard stepped in in the last couple of weeks to almost pull it out).
I'm proud of my Scottish roots, but most modern day Scots seem a bit loony.
AV has been comprehensively rejected btw, 31% for AV 69% against.
Classic Boris Johnson tweet:
"MayorOfLondon AV distraction over. Now let's concentrate on jobs, growth and making the most of the Olympics"
And the Olympics isn't some form of frippery ?
Depends on the city. The Olympics helped transform Atlanta into a modern city. I can only hope it does the same for London.
Quote from: Habbaku on May 06, 2011, 05:26:49 PM
Depends on the city. The Olympics helped transform Atlanta into a modern city. I can only hope it does the same for London.
You want London to be more like Atlanta, Georgia ? :blink:
Whoosh.
Quote from: jamesww on May 06, 2011, 05:29:00 PM
Quote from: Habbaku on May 06, 2011, 05:26:49 PM
Depends on the city. The Olympics helped transform Atlanta into a modern city. I can only hope it does the same for London.
You want London to be more like Atlanta, Georgia ? :blink:
They could stand to improve restroom facilities and handicapped access. Like they had to do in Athens.
QuoteClassic Boris Johnson tweet:
"MayorOfLondon AV distraction over. Now let's concentrate on jobs, growth and making the most of the Olympics"
And the Olympics isn't some form of frippery ?
Was he speaking out against AV?
Would be kind of weird for a guy who pretty much got his job through AV...
Quote from: Habbaku on May 06, 2011, 05:26:49 PM
Depends on the city. The Olympics helped transform Atlanta into a modern city. I can only hope it does the same for London.
This is what the Olympics are likely to do for London:
(https://languish.org/forums/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Fi.dailymail.co.uk%2Fi%2Fpix%2F2009%2F06%2F23%2Farticle-1194888-0572E93B000005DC-386_468x297_popup.jpg&hash=357e76df349f8539a19fc3090a9bd18dc55c4fff)
So, like any other day.
Quote from: Tyr on May 06, 2011, 05:54:04 PM
QuoteClassic Boris Johnson tweet:
"MayorOfLondon AV distraction over. Now let's concentrate on jobs, growth and making the most of the Olympics"
And the Olympics isn't some form of frippery ?
Was he speaking out against AV?
Would be kind of weird for a guy who pretty much got his job through AV...
The Mayor of London is elected using AV?
Quote from: Neil on May 06, 2011, 06:25:23 PM
The Mayor of London is elected using AV?
Sort of. Not really. Ish. It uses Supplementary vote which uses the same basic principle of multiple choices (though limiting it to just two) only it adds everyone's second choices to everyone's first choices instead of removing the worst performers and redistributing their vote.
It certainly has a lot in common with AV and most of the anti-AV arguments apply equally or moreso with it.
Quote from: Richard Hakluyt on May 06, 2011, 03:18:07 PM
AV has been comprehensively rejected btw, 31% for AV 69% against.
Looks like the Liberal Democrats got fucked, then?
Quote from: Jacob on May 06, 2011, 06:33:59 PM
Quote from: Richard Hakluyt on May 06, 2011, 03:18:07 PM
AV has been comprehensively rejected btw, 31% for AV 69% against.
Looks like the Liberal Democrats got fucked, then?
Not only on this, I think they're all but electorally dead in the water for a generation, unless they can stay in the coalition, get it to change course and we have an economic miracle within the next 3 years.
Quote from: Jacob on May 06, 2011, 06:33:59 PM
Quote from: Richard Hakluyt on May 06, 2011, 03:18:07 PM
AV has been comprehensively rejected btw, 31% for AV 69% against.
Looks like the Liberal Democrats got fucked, then?
That's what people on the news are muttering- surprisingly high turn out for the referendum as people saw it as a way to attack the lib dems.
Which sucks.
I think we're stuck with the lib dems for the full five years now. Had it passed I'd have had them leaving sooner to try and disassociate themselves from the tories but now....they've just got to hang on and hope things pick up.
Quote from: Tyr on May 06, 2011, 06:31:20 PM
Quote from: Neil on May 06, 2011, 06:25:23 PM
The Mayor of London is elected using AV?
Sort of. Not really. Ish. It uses Supplementary vote which uses the same basic principle of multiple choices (though limiting it to just two) only it adds everyone's second choices to everyone's first choices instead of removing the worst performers and redistributing their vote.
It certainly has a lot in common with AV and most of the anti-AV arguments apply equally or moreso with it.
Wow. That's weak. Parliament needs to roll that back, stat.
The unpopularity of coalition politics was confirmation for me that we should stick with FPTP.
As for the Lib-Dems, it has been revealed that much of their support is not really interested in the dirty business of government, they want to stand at the sidelines and make sanctimonious comments about what Labour or the Tories are doing wrong. I don't like Clegg, but at least he has the balls to get in there and try and make a positive difference.
Quote from: Richard Hakluyt on May 07, 2011, 03:16:07 AM
The unpopularity of coalition politics was confirmation for me that we should stick with FPTP
You mean the system which gave us the coalition and a hung parliament in around 1/3 of elections since 1885?
Quote from: Tyr on May 06, 2011, 09:52:29 AM
A vote for the SNP isn't a vote for independance. Most SNP voters vote SNP because of their other policies.
A vote for NSDAP is not a vote for genocide. Most NSDAP voters vote NSDAP because of their other policies.
:yes: I support Herr Hitler's "No Jew Left Behind" policy.
Quote from: Tyr on May 07, 2011, 11:29:14 AM
Quote from: Richard Hakluyt on May 07, 2011, 03:16:07 AM
The unpopularity of coalition politics was confirmation for me that we should stick with FPTP
You mean the system which gave us the coalition and a hung parliament in around 1/3 of elections since 1885?
As opposed to the other systems that give even more indecisive results?
QuoteAs opposed to the other systems that give even more indecisive results?
AV wouldn't have necessarily gave that.
PR though would. But then I'm anti-pr.
Quote from: Viking on May 07, 2011, 01:46:18 PM
A vote for NSDAP is not a vote for genocide. Most NSDAP voters vote NSDAP because of their other policies.
No doubt true.
However the Nazis still went ahead and unilaterally started the genocide anyway, they didn't call a referendum on it first.
Quote from: Tyr on May 08, 2011, 06:43:00 AM
Quote from: Viking on May 07, 2011, 01:46:18 PM
A vote for NSDAP is not a vote for genocide. Most NSDAP voters vote NSDAP because of their other policies.
No doubt true.
However the Nazis still went ahead and unilaterally started the genocide anyway, they didn't call a referendum on it first.
Agreed, while genocide is not in the NSDAP party program, secession is on the SNP program.
I'd vote SNP in Scotland. Salmond's a great politician and Scottish Labour are deeply, deeply mired in second-rate talent and ideas that the rest of the country disposed of decades ago. In Scotland the SNP are the only real opposition.
Labour need someone of the calibre of Donald Dewar to leave Westminster and go to Holyrood if they want to do well in Scotland again. Even the SNP front bench has a lot more talent - like Nicola Sturgeon and, in non-talky positions, John Swinney.
Labour in Scotland need to sort-of separate from the Westminster party - so do the Tories and Lib Dems - or they'll always struggle to make relevant local points.
I heard Scots like the EU. If so, they should secede from the UK and be a good EU member, not like those British saboteurs. :P
Quote from: Sheilbh on May 09, 2011, 04:03:17 AM
I'd vote SNP in Scotland. Salmond's a great politician and Scottish Labour are deeply, deeply mired in second-rate talent and ideas that the rest of the country disposed of decades ago. In Scotland the SNP are the only real opposition.
Labour need someone of the calibre of Donald Dewar to leave Westminster and go to Holyrood if they want to do well in Scotland again. Even the SNP front bench has a lot more talent - like Nicola Sturgeon and, in non-talky positions, John Swinney.
Labour in Scotland need to sort-of separate from the Westminster party - so do the Tories and Lib Dems - or they'll always struggle to make relevant local points.
That is odd because the Tories and Lib Dems would have lots to say on those local issues that is distinct from what Labour and the SNP would say. Surely not every Scot is a leftist.
Quote from: Richard Hakluyt on May 07, 2011, 03:16:07 AM
The unpopularity of coalition politics was confirmation for me that we should stick with FPTP.
As for the Lib-Dems, it has been revealed that much of their support is not really interested in the dirty business of government, they want to stand at the sidelines and make sanctimonious comments about what Labour or the Tories are doing wrong. I don't like Clegg, but at least he has the balls to get in there and try and make a positive difference.
I think Nick Clegg's abject betrayal of pretty much every promise he made during the campaign has something to do with them losing the votes, too. ;)
Quote from: Valmy on May 09, 2011, 10:11:13 AM
Quote from: Sheilbh on May 09, 2011, 04:03:17 AM
I'd vote SNP in Scotland. Salmond's a great politician and Scottish Labour are deeply, deeply mired in second-rate talent and ideas that the rest of the country disposed of decades ago. In Scotland the SNP are the only real opposition.
Labour need someone of the calibre of Donald Dewar to leave Westminster and go to Holyrood if they want to do well in Scotland again. Even the SNP front bench has a lot more talent - like Nicola Sturgeon and, in non-talky positions, John Swinney.
Labour in Scotland need to sort-of separate from the Westminster party - so do the Tories and Lib Dems - or they'll always struggle to make relevant local points.
That is odd because the Tories and Lib Dems would have lots to say on those local issues that is distinct from what Labour and the SNP would say. Surely not every Scot is a leftist.
The Scots will never vote for the Tories. Two words: poll tax.
Quote from: Martinus on May 09, 2011, 10:12:10 AM
The Scots will never vote for the Tories. Two words: poll tax.
I know Scots are legendary for holding grudges and all but that was 20 years ago.
Quote from: Richard Hakluyt on May 07, 2011, 03:45:26 PM
Quote from: Tyr on May 07, 2011, 11:29:14 AM
Quote from: Richard Hakluyt on May 07, 2011, 03:16:07 AM
The unpopularity of coalition politics was confirmation for me that we should stick with FPTP
You mean the system which gave us the coalition and a hung parliament in around 1/3 of elections since 1885?
As opposed to the other systems that give even more indecisive results?
I saw a simulation recently which compared the FPTP results with proportional representation results, and at least with the current vote/party composition, there wouldn't be a greater degree of fragmentation if you guys went with PR.
Of course that is not to say that in a proportional party system more parties wouldn't rise and thrive, thus causing a greater fragmentation.
However it also depends a lot on the national politics - in Poland, we have a proportional representation system, but in just under 20 years of our democracy, the system has evolved into a 2+2 system, where you have two larger parties (which in total get between 75-80% of MPs) and two smaller ones (which get the rest) and the system is quite stable when it comes to coalition forming. Perhaps if you guys had more practice in coalition politics, it would also come easier to you.
The clear benefit of coalitions is that you can have a minor coalition partner add certain "flavour" to the policies of the government it forms with a larger coalition partner, despite the larger partner calling most of the shots.
A hypothetical PO(moderate conservative)-SLD (socialdemocrat/liberal) coalition government (which I hope for after this year's elections) will have a slightly different slant than a PO-PSL (centrist agrarian) government we have now, but PO would still be the main party taking political responsibility and driving the policies with a clear democratic mandate.
Quote from: Martinus on May 09, 2011, 10:09:15 AM
I heard Scots like the EU. If so, they should secede from the UK and be a good EU member, not like those British saboteurs. :P
They'd never be allowed in.
Its a key reason Scottish independance would be suicide.
Quote from: Tyr on May 09, 2011, 10:49:59 AM
Quote from: Martinus on May 09, 2011, 10:09:15 AM
I heard Scots like the EU. If so, they should secede from the UK and be a good EU member, not like those British saboteurs. :P
They'd never be allowed in.
Its a key reason Scottish independance would be suicide.
Disagree. We are considering letting Iceland in - no idea why we wouldn't let Scotts in.
You know who is going on the list?
Valmy for using my schtick.
Quote from: Martinus on May 09, 2011, 11:10:57 AM
Quote from: Tyr on May 09, 2011, 10:49:59 AM
Quote from: Martinus on May 09, 2011, 10:09:15 AM
I heard Scots like the EU. If so, they should secede from the UK and be a good EU member, not like those British saboteurs. :P
They'd never be allowed in.
Its a key reason Scottish independance would be suicide.
Disagree. We are considering letting Iceland in - no idea why we wouldn't let Scotts in.
It would be encouraging the Basque, Catalan, Corsican, Bavarian, Alsatian, Skanish, Padanian, Silesian, etc.... nutters. Spain and France in particular would not like this.
It would really piss off Turkey at yet another nation jumping the line and getting a free and easy pass.
Not to mention even if they were allowed in its taking Iceland long enough. IIRC the EU constitution needs changing quite a lot for new members to come in, some crap about it being designed only for the amount we have now. In the meantime Scotland's economy would unravel quite a bit.
Quote from: Valmy on May 09, 2011, 10:11:13 AMThat is odd because the Tories and Lib Dems would have lots to say on those local issues that is distinct from what Labour and the SNP would say. Surely not every Scot is a leftist.
The SNP aren't necessarily left-wing. They used to be known as tartan Tories after all and their base is rural Scotland. In terms of policy they're probably slightly closer to the Tories than Labour on, say, crime and they want to cut corporate tax, not least so they'd have the power to cut corporate tax. The Tories and Greens tended to back the SNP quite a lot during their minority government. But in terms of Scottish politics they're anti-Labour which is far more important to many voters.
What I mean is that the Lib Dems, Labour and Tories are broadly all still defined by UK politics and their Westminster parties which is simply absurd when the vast majority of politics that actually affect the electorate are decided in the Scottish Parliament. So Labour open their manifesto with the line 'now the Tories are back', except in Scotland that's simply a darkly ironic joke: they ain't. Similarly the Tories ran a campaign defending the Westminster government and the Lib Dems ran one attacking it. All the while they all attacked the SNP for its constiutional dangers while all Scots know that they won't declare independence without a referendum so this isn't the last chance to save the union and the SNP are actually running around talking far more about Scottish policies.
I think the Lib Dems, Labour and Tories all need to divorce from their Scottish wings. Form a CDU-CSU style alliance in Westminster but let them spend a lot more time thinking about Scottish politics rather than insulting the electoriate by just being pawns in the national game.