And that 50 year string of CIA incompetence continues. Can't they do anything right?
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/asia/afghanistan/7535681/CIA-suggests-Europe-should-understand-suffering-of-women-under-Taliban.html
The actual leaked document can be found here.
http://file.wikileaks.org/file/cia-afghanistan.pdf
QuoteA steep increase in French and German casualties this summer could trigger public anger at their involvement and calls for a military pull out the document warns.
Paris and Berlin should start a targeted propaganda campaign to "forestall or at least contain" a backlash by stating the benefits of military action.
French voters could be made to feel guilty about abandoning civilians and refugees, while both nations' electorates are reluctant to "disappoint" Barack Obama, it concludes.
Afghan women are "ideal messengers in humanising the [international coalition] role" and should be put in front of European media for their "ability to speak personally and credibly about their experiences under the Taliban, their aspirations for the future, and their fears of a Taliban victory."
The analysis, marked "confidential" and not for release to foreign nationals, comes amid American concern that heavy fighting this summer could prompt a "precipitous" departure of Nato allies.
It was complied by the CIA's Red Cell, which is charged with "taking a pronounced 'out-of-the-box' approach that will provoke thought and offer an alternative viewpoint".
A spokesman for the CIA declined to comment on the document, dated March 11. It was leaked anonymously to the WikiLeaks whistle-blower website on March 26.
The advice comes despite accusations from Afghan women's activists that Nato is prepared to sacrifice gains in freedom and equality for a political accommodation with insurgents.
"If some forecasts of a bloody summer in Afghanistan come to pass, passive French and German dislike of their troop presence could turn into active and politically potent hostility," the report warns.
"The tone of previous debate suggests that a spike in French or German casualties or in Afghan civilian casualties could become a tipping point in converting passive opposition into active calls for immediate withdrawal." Governments could no longer rely on voter apathy alone to keep troops in Afghanistan it concludes.
Using polling data and a "CIA expert on strategic communication" it suggests tapping "acute" French concern for civilians and refugees.
"The prospect of the Taliban rolling back hard-won progress on girls' education could provoke French indignation, become a rallying point for France's largely secular public, and give voters a reason to support a good and necessary cause despite casualties," it concludes.
The Germans view that the conflict is wasteful and "not our problem" needed to be reversed, it said.
"For example, messages that illustrate how a defeat in Afghanistan could heighten Germany's exposure to terrorism, opium, and refugees might help to make the war more salient to sceptics." A former Western diplomat to Kabul warned playing on fears of Taliban mistreatment of civilians and women could undermine public acceptance of any future peace negotiations.
He said: "This war is a communications war and a war of perceptions." "But these messages must be nuanced. If you say: 'My God what happens when the Taliban return', then how would you synchronise that with a discussion of reconciliation."
Meh. It's hard to blame the CIA for the proliferation of 'gotcha' journalism.
Timmy-- most of the time when the CIA gets something right, you won't hear about it.
Quote from: derspiess on March 31, 2010, 08:18:24 PM
Timmy-- most of the time when the CIA gets something right, you won't hear about it.
How do you distinguish between the CIA sitting on its ass doing nothing and getting something right? :rolleyes:
QuoteThe Germans view that the conflict is wasteful and "not our problem"
:yes:
The only reason we are there is to show committment to NATO.
Quote from: derspiess on March 31, 2010, 08:18:24 PM
Timmy-- most of the time when the CIA gets something right, you won't hear about it.
They need a better PR firm.
Quote from: Zanza on March 31, 2010, 08:26:57 PM
QuoteThe Germans view that the conflict is wasteful and "not our problem"
:yes:
The only reason we are there is to show committment to NATO.
Germany lost the right to act in their own interests when they lost WWII.
We are just reasserting that right though as you can see in the current debates on the EU.
Quote from: jimmy olsen on March 31, 2010, 07:52:18 PM
And that 50 year string of CIA incompetence continues. Can't they do anything right?
They managed to destroy the Taliban in short order with six 8-man teams, a handful of green beanies, BLU-82s, and some psycho Afghani warlords like Dostom in a matter of weeks.
Quote from: CountDeMoney on March 31, 2010, 09:38:48 PM
Quote from: jimmy olsen on March 31, 2010, 07:52:18 PM
And that 50 year string of CIA incompetence continues. Can't they do anything right?
They managed to destroy the Taliban in short order with six 8-man teams, a handful of green beanies, BLU-82s, and some psycho Afghani warlords like Dostom in a matter of weeks.
The main goal was Bin Laden and they failed.
That was the failure of the US armed forces, not the CIA.
Quote from: Zanza on March 31, 2010, 09:08:21 PM
We are just reasserting that right though as you can see in the current debates on the EU.
You can't. It is forbidden. You people cannot be trusted.
Quote from: jimmy olsen on March 31, 2010, 09:39:49 PM
Quote from: CountDeMoney on March 31, 2010, 09:38:48 PM
Quote from: jimmy olsen on March 31, 2010, 07:52:18 PM
And that 50 year string of CIA incompetence continues. Can't they do anything right?
They managed to destroy the Taliban in short order with six 8-man teams, a handful of green beanies, BLU-82s, and some psycho Afghani warlords like Dostom in a matter of weeks.
The main goal was Bin Laden and they failed.
That was not the CIA's fault; that was the fault of the Administration, on advice of CENTCOM. CIA wanted 800 Rangers at Tora Bora; the White House didn't.
Don't blame CIA for shit that's beyond the CIA's reach.
I thought this was an April fools at first.
That's what you get for letting Mormons and Evangelicals run your PR, people.
Get more gays in the CIA. :P
Quote from: Martinus on April 01, 2010, 05:21:05 AM
That's what you get for letting Mormons and Evangelicals run your PR, people.
Get more gays in the CIA. :P
We elected a gay guy as President once. Our country fell into civil war.
Quote from: Razgovory on April 01, 2010, 06:20:01 AM
Quote from: Martinus on April 01, 2010, 05:21:05 AM
That's what you get for letting Mormons and Evangelicals run your PR, people.
Get more gays in the CIA. :P
We elected a gay guy as President once. Our country fell into civil war.
Even Martinus wouldn't suggest that gays are fit for leadership roles. Their inherent selfishness makes that impossible.
What's the problem? That it leaked? Seems like a good idea.
Quote from: Fate on March 31, 2010, 08:24:39 PM
How do you distinguish between the CIA sitting on its ass doing nothing and getting something right? :rolleyes:
You don't. I'm just saying its relative effectiveness should not be judged on well-publicized (and often exaggerated) blunders, given that the other side of the equation is less publicly known.
I don't understand what is offensive about the proposed CIA plan.
Quote from: Malthus on April 01, 2010, 01:04:23 PM
I don't understand what is offensive about the proposed CIA plan.
It involves the CIA. But seriously, as inocuous as it may seem, it's red meat for anti-Americans & conspiracy nutters.
Quote from: jimmy olsen on March 31, 2010, 09:39:49 PM
The main goal was Bin Laden and they failed.
No, that wasn't the main goal at all. You are arguing the equivalent of "the purpose of the US WW2 military in Europe was the capture of Adolph Hitler and they failed."
Quote from: Malthus on April 01, 2010, 01:04:23 PM
I don't understand what is offensive about the proposed CIA plan.
Nothing. This is non-news, brought to you by an outraged Timmay. SSDD.
Quote from: Malthus on April 01, 2010, 01:04:23 PM
I don't understand what is offensive about the proposed CIA plan.
It doesn't offend me. The fact that it leaked is what pisses me off, that's gonna cause blowback.
Quote from: jimmy olsen on April 01, 2010, 06:57:19 PM
Quote from: Malthus on April 01, 2010, 01:04:23 PM
I don't understand what is offensive about the proposed CIA plan.
It doesn't offend me. The fact that it leaked is what pisses me off, that's gonna cause blowback.
:lol: European blowback largely consists of a few sharp words at dinner parties across the continent. You should, however, be more careful in more excitable areas of the world :P
Quote from: jimmy olsen on April 01, 2010, 06:57:19 PM
It doesn't offend me. The fact that it leaked is what pisses me off, that's gonna cause blowback.
This looks very much like an on purpose leak.
edit: It was classified confidential for fuck's sake. Confidential is what they classify the lunch menu in the federal government.
Quote from: jimmy olsen on April 01, 2010, 06:57:19 PM
Quote from: Malthus on April 01, 2010, 01:04:23 PM
I don't understand what is offensive about the proposed CIA plan.
It doesn't offend me. The fact that it leaked is what pisses me off, that's gonna cause blowback.
Perhaps you should consider the possibility it was leaked deliberately.
You know what, guys? I think there's a possibility this may have been leaked out on purpose.
A lot of times agencies leak things on purpose, I think that might be what happened here too.
After thinking on it a bit, it struck me that this may have been an intentional leak.
What are the benefits in doing so?
Quote from: jimmy olsen on April 01, 2010, 10:04:10 PM
What are the benefits in doing so?
CIA guys don't have to do something now which lightens their work load.
I know it's a novel idea, but what do you guys think about this being leaked on purpose? Too far-fetched?
The US gave the impression that Afghanistan didn't matter when it decided to shift focus to Irak. There's no way of fixing that now.
Quote from: jimmy olsen on April 01, 2010, 10:04:10 PM
What are the benefits in doing so?
You get the benefits of feedback without losing face if it turns out to be an unpopular idea. Also known as running it up the flagpole to see if anyone salutes.
I actually missed Yi's post. :Embarrass:
Quote from: jimmy olsen on April 01, 2010, 10:04:10 PM
What are the benefits in doing so?
In particular I would note that of all the European nations committed to Afghanistan, it only mentions France and Germany in relation to the withdrawal of the Netherlands. In particular, Italy, an equvalent contributor, is
not mentioned.
It strokes the ego of both the French and the Germans; Sarkozy and Merkel can imagine they are more important to the USA than Brown or Berlusconi (when in reality, all four are equally unimportant.) It also makes them think their troops are more valued than those of other nations. It also strokes the ego of the general public in the two nations, now it has been released. The suggestions themselves are fairly innocuous, and the wording suggests that most of these are suggestions to be passed on to the two relevant governments, not to be carried out by the CIA itself. In fact, the wording seems deliberately ambiguous in places, although that may simply be "officialspeak".
I suspect this is just one part of a calculated package to keep the Germans and French "on-side" this year.
Quote from: Malthus on April 01, 2010, 01:04:23 PM
I don't understand what is offensive about the proposed CIA plan.
Exactly my thoughts.
Could this leak be part of the plan?
Guys, I think they leaked this on purpose.
Quote from: Iormlund on April 02, 2010, 05:38:45 AM
The US gave the impression that Afghanistan didn't matter when it decided to shift focus to Irak. There's no way of fixing that now.
If it can shift one way, it can shift the other.
Quote from: Siege on April 02, 2010, 07:13:45 AM
Quote from: Malthus on April 01, 2010, 01:04:23 PM
I don't understand what is offensive about the proposed CIA plan.
Exactly my thoughts.
Could this leak be part of the plan?
You aren't paid to think. You're paid to take bullets.
Quote from: jimmy olsen on March 31, 2010, 07:52:18 PM
And that 50 year string of CIA incompetence continues. Can't they do anything right?
They recently successfully managed the defection of an apparently senior Iranian nuclear scientist. But aside from that...