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General Category => Off the Record => Topic started by: HisMajestyBOB on November 30, 2009, 07:49:55 AM

Title: Tales from the DPRK
Post by: HisMajestyBOB on November 30, 2009, 07:49:55 AM
So ever since I came to Korea, I've been following Korean news (well, English translations of Korean news posted on blogs) fairly regularly, and I've come across a number of articles that are pretty interesting, especially regarding North Korea. So, I figured I'll start a thread to post some of them.

First one is a rather emotional tale from a North Korean defector:
http://askakorean.blogspot.com/2009/11/ask-korean-news-starvation-in-north.html (http://askakorean.blogspot.com/2009/11/ask-korean-news-starvation-in-north.html)

QuoteMom, Sis -- We are Humans Too

First, I would like to thank everyone who reads this post, because I could learn much from your comments.

I had a grandmother, a father and a mother who dedicated their entire lives swearing loyalty to Kim Jong-Il and Korea Labor Party. I have no memory of ever sitting on my father's lap, because he would go to work at 6 in the morning and come back at midnight. He wanted to receive an Effort Hero merit for his hard work.

But instead, all he received was invectives, because our ancestors come from South Korea. They said why would a family of shit dogs would receive any award. We could do nothing in our country because of our ancestor, whom we have never met, was from South Korea. Finally, when the crisis [TK Note: the famine in early 1990s] came, our family moved to the mountains to find a way to survive.

I was third of six brothers and sisters. I grew up learning songs like this: "Honk-honk, my little brother drives a "Victory" brand car. I asked him where he was going. He said he was going to give rice to the poor South Korean brothers." I still vividly hear my teacher teaching that there are many beggar children in South Korea with a can on their waist, who gets beaten to death by well-off people while scrounging and begging for food. I also learned that Korea was a slave to another country and cannot even breathe without permission. That it was a land of idiots without pride, mooching off America like a dog.

We had this great life because the Great General Father protected us with the pride and greatness of Korea. We swore our lives for the Dear Leader, who twice a year gave us a whole kilo of candies and cookies that South Korean children could not have.

But we had to walk 6 kilometers of mountain road to get to school. We had to give up school because our legs, fueled only by boiled wild vegetables, would shake and give out. It was especially difficult for my older sister and I, who had no shoes except a piece of plastic wrapping our feet.

When we were living in the city, my grandmother and mother were trying to turn the last one kilogram of rice into rice cake so that they could sell it. They would have used the profit to buy rice and have porridge. But the police took the whole thing away, saying that we are selling rice that was the grace given from the General. We could not even sell things because we were warned that merchants would be considered a criminal who accepts the filth of capitalism.

So we thought we would survive in the mountain by farming. We cut the trees, tilled the land and pulled the weed, with a hope that we can eat in autumn. Then a National Security Bureau adviser said they would take all the harvest, saying the South Korean dog's family just had to act like a landowner. My indignant grandmother yelled, "Go split it with the wild hogs." The remaining potatoes were hashed out by wild hogs, and the remaining corns were ruined from bears, squirrels and birds. Our blood and sweat disappeared with the wind. In the winter, we would face near death from starvation while eating boiled pea pods and crushed corn cobs. We would roast and devour a rat that was caught in a trap.

Although my father was a loyal member of the Korea Labor Party, he left for China to buy food because he could not bear to see the mass deaths of his mother, wife and six children. But on his way back with a bag of rice, he was caught by the NSB, and died from beating and starvation in prison.

My mother was pregnant with her youngest child. She tried to abort the baby because of the hardship, but the doctor wanted 20 kilograms of beans. She had to have the child because there was no way to get those beans. She gave birth after only eight months of pregnancy after having been frightened by the news of my father's death.

She gave birth in a log cabin without any lights. There was no one to help giving birth other than my grandmother, who was 76, and myself, who was 10. I could never forget what my grandmother said when she was cutting the umbilical cord with scissors that were used to cut cloth. She told me, shivering with fear, that mother would die if I don't hold on tight to the umbilical cord. I held the slippery baby on one hand and the umbilical cord on the other, screaming "mom please wake up". Hiding tears, my grandmother put my small brother face down on the ground for him to die. My mother begged my grandmother to let him live. I could only cry out of fear, holding my two younger siblings who were 5 and 6 years old.

My grandmother returned my brother to my mother, but he could only cry for milk that was not coming from my mother. My older sister went to sell the clothes from home to buy some rice, but she was robbed on the way home, barely coming home alive.

Eating only boiled water, we thought we could only die. But a lady from the People's Bureau in charge of monitoring the villagers told us that she would give us 5 kilos of rice if we would take the 20 kilos of beans to sell at the city 50 kilometers away, buy wallpaper with the money and bring it back.

My older sister left, telling me that she would return no matter how late the next day would be, and that I should protect my mother, grandmother and my younger siblings. But seven days later, she would not return. My mother, seven days after giving birth, went on the 50 kilometer journey to find her. She gave my brother to me, telling me to hang on until she came back.

To keep my brother alive, I begged at the houses of the NSB leaders for 500 grams of rice. All I got was a spit in the face and a beating with a broomstick. They told me why the seeds of South Korean dogs would bother trying to live, and that my father was a traitor to the country. Finally, my brother would not take drinking boiled grass water any longer; he starved to death after clawing at my breasts.

My mother heard that my sister was sold away to China. She went to China to search for her, but could not. She came back with two small bags of powdered milk and a bag of rice, and cried when she heard my brother had died. She was taken away when the NSB agents found out that she went to China. Everything she brought back was taken away. My grandmother starved to death, while longing for the illusion of a boiled potato that she saw next to me.

My mother returned after escaping from the prison. There was no part of her body that was fine, after the beatings and tortures. She laid down for two months while wringing towels soaked with blood leaking out of her head. Then she saw us, nearly dying, and summoned the superhuman strength to take the three of us to China, resolving that she could not possibly kill the remaining children.

I carried the five year old brother on my back and held the hand of the six year old sister, and let my barely moving mother lean against me. We could not walk more than 4 kilometers. My shoeless feet were bleeding. I went to this one house and begged that they take care of my brother for just five days, and promised my brother that we will come back if he sleeps for just five nights.

I can still hear my brother. "Nuna, why do you take the other nuna and not me?" I told him, "Guk-Cheol, mother and I have to carry the rice and your nuna has to carry the candies and cookies, so we will hurry back. Ok?"

After one month, we were trying to return from China but we could not because the Tumen river has flooded. But even more than that, they said there was an order from Kim Jong-Il that anyone who did not participate in the election was to be executed. So we gave someone else money and asked him to bring back my brother, but he only returned with this news: the family that was taking care of my brother had fallen on hard times also, and kicked my brother out. My brother starved to death in a windy reed path, looking for his sister.

This was the end of the destiny for our six brothers and sisters. This is how my family was shattered. I want to ask whose fault was our tragedy.

In China, we had to hide from the police in a dirt hole at night, getting bitten by ants and mosquitoes. During the day, we would help tilling someone's land. The landowner would say he would give the money tomorrow, but one bowl of rice was all we got. If we went to him for money, he would call the police. We were sent back to North Korea four times, but we survived by swallowing money wrapped in plastic. We would bribe the guards with that money after we excreted it.

Eighty percent of the prisoners in the prison I was sent to were caught while trying to go to Korea. Those who endure the beating while telling a story that they were only trying to work in China are sent to a prison called Training Center for six months to a year. If they do not die from disease or starvation, they come out alive and defect from North Korea once again. Those who cannot stand the pain and tell the truth are sent to the prison for political criminals and die there.

North Korean defectors can only die, only in different ways. If they stay in their homeland and survive by selling things, everything is taken away under the pretext that they are imitating capitalism. They finally die in prison after living in poverty and becoming economic criminal, thieves, or political prisoners for lamenting their country. They might want to die after at least having a bowl of rice and drown while trying to cross the Tumen River. The women are sold this way and that, dying from disease or beating after trying to run away. The truly lucky ones, like me, receive help from the Korean brothers, gain liberty and live as well as I do.

Please, everyone -- what are we supposed to do? Please tell me if you have any wise ideas.

I think the North Korean themselves are the only answer. They must somehow revolt, eliminate Kim Jong-Il and the parasites that suck on the blood of the people, and gain liberty. I believe that is the only way to resolve their misery and tribulations. It is not as if Koreans, busy with getting rich, will rescue them by killing Kim Jong-Il with their tanks.

The people of North Korea are taught like this: "Today, again, General went out for supervision without even eating, for the welfare of his people. He cannot sleep, refusing corn and rice, saying how could I have rice when my people are eating porridge because of the puppet South Koreans? Why is Korea trying to kill the people of North Korea? Why is it trying to start a war over and over? Why does it continue to send spies to put glass shards in the food that our poor people eat?"

Koreans, are you really like so? The Koreans I know are kind and love their people. Many times I thought North Korean people and military would learn the truth and endeavor toward life and liberty. That Kim Jong-Il is a true villain, who suffers from diabetes and clogged arteries because of eating so well. That while he condemns those who watch Korean movies as traitors but he still watches those movies and follows Korea's famous actors and actresses. That while he punishes those who divorce and bury them society while having a harem of women.

While I was in prison, I wished that I could put a picture of Kim Jong-Il's wives and the shark's fin banquet that he eats, along with 100 Chinese yuan, in front of every single house in North Korea. But those in Korea went further, and began sending flyers in balloons. This made me so happy. How else could we save the dying people?

JSH Note: This is a post in support of flyering from a defector, ID "Thank You", when there was a debate over the balloon flyering in North Korea last winter. I read this three times, and each time I cried. This post gives me strength, as it makes me reflect how and for what I should live.

[Repost from EUOT, because I'm a little lazy.
BTW, "Nuna" means older sister.]
Title: Re: Tales from the DPRK
Post by: derspiess on November 30, 2009, 10:20:48 AM
Dang.
Title: Re: Tales from the DPRK
Post by: Camerus on November 30, 2009, 10:39:56 AM
Given the Chinese support for it, the N.Korean regime must be dismantled internally and relatively suddenly, whether by coup or popular uprising.   Fortunately, such things can happen in totalitarian states.
Title: Re: Tales from the DPRK
Post by: DisturbedPervert on November 30, 2009, 10:42:37 AM
Will the American Imperialist Running Dog lies never end!?
Title: Re: Tales from the DPRK
Post by: Josquius on November 30, 2009, 11:06:20 AM
I'm not so sure on the chances of a coup from the ground level, the people are brain washed. As this article says the dad remained loyal and commited even after he was treat like shit.
Its like medieval times. Peasents didn't revolt against the king, the sun shone out of the king's arse; it was always some corrupt advisor that was the problem.
The only chance from within in N.Korea is with the higher ups. But for obvious reasons the chances of a coup from there are not good, especially one that has positive effects for the people.
Title: Re: Tales from the DPRK
Post by: Darth Wagtaros on November 30, 2009, 11:43:40 AM
1984 lives!
Title: Re: Tales from the DPRK
Post by: Lettow77 on November 30, 2009, 12:34:05 PM
 If it wasn't for their nukes, North Korea would be worth keeping around just to study, like an ant farm.
Title: Re: Tales from the DPRK
Post by: MadImmortalMan on November 30, 2009, 07:47:49 PM
I think Tim should sneak across the border and report back what he finds.
Title: Re: Tales from the DPRK
Post by: derspiess on November 30, 2009, 09:28:04 PM
I think the NorK regime will fall in our lifetime, but it will be one of those things that happen suddenly, without much warning.
Title: Re: Tales from the DPRK
Post by: HisMajestyBOB on November 30, 2009, 09:51:25 PM
Quote from: derspiess on November 30, 2009, 09:28:04 PM
I think the NorK regime will fall in our lifetime, but it will be one of those things that happen suddenly, without much warning.

My big bet is shortly after Jong-Il's death and the succession of his son. That's certainly my hope, anyway; and hopefully the US President at the time will be smart enough to reassure China that we will withdraw from the peninsula after reunification, and warning them away from trying to put in a general/dictatorship under their control.
Title: Re: Tales from the DPRK
Post by: Camerus on November 30, 2009, 10:55:37 PM
China would be foolish to let the N.Korean regime fall.
Title: Re: Tales from the DPRK
Post by: DontSayBanana on November 30, 2009, 10:56:44 PM
Quote from: HisMajestyBOB on November 30, 2009, 09:51:25 PM
Quote from: derspiess on November 30, 2009, 09:28:04 PM
I think the NorK regime will fall in our lifetime, but it will be one of those things that happen suddenly, without much warning.

My big bet is shortly after Jong-Il's death and the succession of his son. That's certainly my hope, anyway; and hopefully the US President at the time will be smart enough to reassure China that we will withdraw from the peninsula after reunification, and warning them away from trying to put in a general/dictatorship under their control.

And we'd know.  Look at the shining example of South Korea. :contract:
Title: Re: Tales from the DPRK
Post by: Admiral Yi on November 30, 2009, 11:35:45 PM
Either of you guy been up to Panmunjom yet?
Title: Re: Tales from the DPRK
Post by: jimmy olsen on November 30, 2009, 11:39:45 PM
Aniyo
Title: Re: Tales from the DPRK
Post by: HisMajestyBOB on November 30, 2009, 11:43:14 PM
Quote from: Admiral Yi on November 30, 2009, 11:35:45 PM
Either of you guy been up to Panmunjom yet?

Yep.

It was hazy, though, so I couldn't see too far into North Korea from the observation post. I did manage to get some photos of that huge-ass flag they've got.

QuoteAnd we'd know.  Look at the shining example of South Korea. :contract:

American backed dictators >>> Chinese backed dictators :contract:
Title: Re: Tales from the DPRK
Post by: DontSayBanana on December 01, 2009, 12:00:20 AM
Quote from: HisMajestyBOB on November 30, 2009, 11:43:14 PM
American backed dictators >>> Chinese backed dictators :contract:

Glad to see somebody responds to my trolling. :P
Title: North Korea to make everyone equally poor again
Post by: HisMajestyBOB on December 01, 2009, 10:12:52 PM
I was going to make a post about the (possible) attempt on Kim Jong Il's life a year or a few ago, but instead I'll post something a little more current:

QuoteNorth Korea Revalues Currency, Wipes Away Savings of Millions

Posted by Joshua Stanton on December 1, 2009 at 8:06 am · Filed under NK Economics, Resistance

North Korea has shocked its entire population with a sudden announcement that it will replace its currency with new notes that drop two zeroes from the denominations. The new North Korean currency's official exchange rates will increase by a hundredfold. The move is causing widespread outrage, panic, and a run on U.S. and Chinese currency. North Koreans throughout the country and at every socioeconomic level are reacting with shock, tears, and anger. According to some reports, people are literally weeping in the streets, as the regime reacts by filling them with police and soldiers.

QuoteNorth Korean sources who engage in trade with China in the eastern Chinese city of Shenyang told Yonhap News Agency that the North Korean government implemented the currency reform as of 11 a.m. Monday and the exchange for the new currency began at 2 p.m. [....]

    "Many citizens in Pyongyang were taken aback and in confusion. Those who were worried about their hidden assets rushed to the black market to exchange them with yuan or U.S. dollars. The yuan and the dollar jumped," one of the sources said.

    Foreign embassies in South Korea confirmed the report, saying their missions in Pyongyang received a verbal notice of the revaluation by the North's Foreign Ministry on Tuesday. The use of the old denominations has already become "difficult." [Yonhap]

North Korea's wireless broadcasting services still haven't said a word about this first major currency revaluation in 17 years. According to the Daily NK, however, the regime has announced it over the cable radio system (think telescreen without the screen) that feeds into North Korean homes. As always, we're left to speculate about the regime's motives. It could be intended to boost economic output, offset the effect of sanctions, or prepare the way for a transfer of power. The most-discussed motives, however, relate to controlling the hyperinflation of the North Korean won, fueled by the rise of an underground black market, and malice toward those who have stashed away savings earned in markets:

QuoteYang Moon-soo, an economy specialist at the University of North Korean Studies in Seoul, said he believes the currency reform has both economic and political aims. North Korea wanted to shed heavy inflationary pressure, and in the process of exchanging the denominations, the government would be able to discover and question those who have amassed wealth, he said.

    "In economic terms, the government will be able to retrieve banknotes that people have amassed in their own coffers," Yang said. "In that process, those who have legally or illegally stashed a large amount of money will be exposed to the government, and those who fear punishment will have to bury their illegally earned money. There will be less cash circulating in the market and more government control of the people." [Yonhap]

North Koreans will have just five days to exchange their old currency. And in a flash, the "peoples' economy" of North Korea is paralyzed: buses have quit running, train stations are packed with traders trying to get home, and markets are in chaos. Suicides were even reported, though those reports are obviously impossible to confirm. Although the official limit on the amount of currency that could be exchanged was originally 100,000 won, the angry public reaction has forced the regime to raise that limit in some places.

The regime seems to have been taken aback by the surprisingly strong public reaction — really, the closest thing to a widespread outburst of dissent we've yet seen in North Korea:

Quote"North Korea appears to have carried out the reform so secretly and suddenly that no one could prepare for it," Dong said.

    "But public reaction could be much stronger than the government has expected, because this shuts the door to the growing trend of ordinary people stashing money personally from their market activities," he said. "Most high-class people have their money in dollars or yuan."

    Good Friends, a humanitarian aid organization in Seoul, said in a bulletin posted on its Web site that shops, public bathhouses and restaurants in the North were mostly closed, and long-distance buses were not operating. Public anger mounted as the maximum amount of the new currency allowed for exchange was limited to 100,000 won per person, it said.

    "I worked like a dog for two months for the winter, but the money became useless paper overnight," the bulletin quoted a resident in Sinuiju, a city that borders China in North Phyongan Province, as saying. [Yonhap]

The Daily NK reports that the regime is taking extraordinary security precautions on the streets:

QuoteAccording to The Daily NK's sources inside the country, the People's Safety Agency (PSA) was ordered to control residents, and the National Security Agency, Defense Security Command of the People's Army and army bases were all placed on standby. [....]

    From 11 A.M., the PSA and community watch guards started monitoring residents on the streets more strictly, and at 12 P.M. military bases were placed on standby to cope with possible emergency situations. In morning People's Unit meetings and lectures in factories and other organizations, a notice was handed down enforcing a curfew which read as follows; "After 10 P.M., all movements are prohibited. Offenders must be strictly regulated." [....]

    A source from Shinuiju reported, "Loud sounds of weeping in every house have not ceased since the news was released. Weeping and fighting between couples has not stopped anywhere. The atmosphere of the city is terrible now."

    He added, "This currency reform is a horrifying trick. It is the first time people have cried on the streets since the Great Leader's death." [Daily NK]

After North Korea's Public Distribution System Collapsed a decade ago, people have become dependent on the black market for their survival. A majority of North Koreans today get at least half their calories from food they purchase in markets. For many, the money to buy their food also comes from trading. And in recent years, most outbreaks of public dissent have been related to pocketbook issues — the regime's confiscatory and stifling efforts to combat what amounts to spontaneous economic reform from below.

This is a story worth watching very carefully over the next few days. There are going to be long lines to exchange all that old currency. Waiting patiently in line is not a skill for which Koreans are widely renowned. The usual impatience and anger about line-cutting will be amplified by the fear that at the end of the line, one could lose the savings on which livelihoods and lives depend. It's not hard to see how those currency lines could have an explosive potential to become angry mobs.
Update:  The Washington Post's Blaine Harden and the Wall Street Journal's Evan Ramstad have both picked up the story. I also recommend Kushibo's post (see comments).

While I think it's early to say that this is could be the straw that breaks the camel's back, I will agree with Kushibo this far — the currency change introduces a great deal of uncertainty into our perceptions of the regime's stability. I see a Romanian scenario as unlikely to unfold in the short term. The security forces would gun down anyone who challenged them, and people are still too isolated from each other to organize and coordinate an effective opposition.

But even the regime's overreaction would also mark a substantial change in North Korea's domestic politics, such as they are. It would bury a few troublesome pretenses held by false experts on North Korea, as well — of a regime that enjoys popular support, of a regime with a genuine interest in economic reform, of unconditional aid policies that fuel (rather than retard) reform. It could also refocus thought in the more practical direction of how to bring the Kim Dynasty to a close with the least possible loss of life. That formula, simply stated, is to contain it, constrict it, and subvert it. Our last best hope is to help support an Albanian scenario — the replacement of a ruthless dictator with one who might hesitate to order a slaughter, opening the way for a successful popular uprising, a transitional government, and a path to structured democratization and reunification on a fixed timetable. 
http://www.freekorea.us/2009/12/01/north-korea-revalues-currency-wipes-away-savings-of-millions/ (http://www.freekorea.us/2009/12/01/north-korea-revalues-currency-wipes-away-savings-of-millions/)
See also: http://kushibo.blogspot.com/2009/12/is-north-koreas-currency-revaluation.html (http://kushibo.blogspot.com/2009/12/is-north-koreas-currency-revaluation.html) and http://www.nkeconwatch.com/2009/11/30/dprk-renominates-currency/

This will put intense pressure on the regime, and while they can call out the army, they can no longer really rely on the discipline of the conscripts. Many soldiers make a living through the black market, selling food, supplies and equipment to feed their families. Higher ranking officers, Kim's inner circle, and possibly some of the special forces and elite units almost certainly knew about this before hand and could prepare (through the grapevine if nothing else), but those that are actually expected to go out on patrol and fire on their fellow citizens are the ones who have seen their stashed cash effectively wiped out. Worse, this was done right before winter, when everyone is trying to pull together enough cash, fuel and food to survive the bitter cold.

Many people are going to be facing the possibility of starvation and freezing to death despite their efforts to save and avoid it. Facing death from the winter or death from the government, we might see many people choosing to face the latter in mass protest. Unfortunately, I think in the end we'll see the regime back down over this and try again later, with a different approach, rather than facing a general uprising. If they don't, though, the regime will almost certainly be under quite a bit of unprecedented pressure.
Title: Re: Tales from the DPRK
Post by: Caliga on December 02, 2009, 08:15:43 AM
That story would have been cooler if it had bookends starring the Crypt Keeper.  :cool:
Title: Re: Tales from the DPRK
Post by: Valmy on December 02, 2009, 08:51:50 AM
Quote from: Pitiful Pathos on November 30, 2009, 10:55:37 PM
China would be foolish to let the N.Korean regime fall.

Why?  How does an unstable and impoverished country at their borders encouraging Japan and South Korea to build up their militaries and possibly get nuclear weapons and an excuse for the US to post an army near their territory help them?
Title: Re: Tales from the DPRK
Post by: Camerus on December 02, 2009, 09:31:10 AM
Quote from: Valmy on December 02, 2009, 08:51:50 AM
Quote from: Pitiful Pathos on November 30, 2009, 10:55:37 PM
China would be foolish to let the N.Korean regime fall.

Why?  How does an unstable and impoverished country at their borders encouraging Japan and South Korea to build up their militaries and possibly get nuclear weapons and an excuse for the US to post an army near their territory help them?

IMO, the DPRK offers China the following advantages:

(1) It is one of China's (relatively) few allies
(2) NK is a constant thorn in America's side, which ties up US political capital and has the potential to weaken American prestige internationally.
(3) NK offers a useful bargaining chip for the Chinese - they can always offer to put pressure on the regime in exchange for other concessions
(4) Keeping N.Korea weak and the Korean peninsula divided hurts their economic and ideological rivals, the Koreans.  This consequently strengthens Chinese influence in the region
(5) The NK situation keeps US troops and resources tied down in Korea at all times, reducing potential American influence in other theatres, including other Asian ones.
(6) Even if the US didn't have an obvious reason to keep troops in Korea, it still has a sizeable number of troops in nearby Japan, and has the potential to increase that number.  As well, there is no guarantee that all American troops would ever actually leave S.Korea in the event of unification or N.Korean regime change.
(7) N.Korea provides a buffer against the Koreans and potentially the Japanese.  The Chinese still are quite paranoid about Japanese intentions.


Those are just some of the reasons I came up with off the top of my head.  Presumably there are more that the PRC's strategic gurus could come up with.  I'm not saying there aren't disadvantages to the PRC by having the NK regime being what it is, but I think the advantages far outweigh the drawbacks for the ChiComs.
Title: Re: Tales from the DPRK
Post by: Admiral Yi on December 02, 2009, 09:34:21 AM
Hey Pee Pee, do you sort of have to watch what you post?
Title: Re: Tales from the DPRK
Post by: Camerus on December 02, 2009, 09:42:52 AM
pee pee can not to talk now.  but he say he do not watch postings now. he very happiness in people's republic
Title: Re: Tales from the DPRK
Post by: Admiral Yi on December 02, 2009, 09:43:43 AM
 :D
Title: Re: Tales from the DPRK
Post by: jimmy olsen on December 02, 2009, 06:35:34 PM
Interesting news Bob.
Title: Re: Tales from the DPRK
Post by: HisMajestyBOB on December 02, 2009, 08:19:25 PM
Quote from: Pitiful Pathos on December 02, 2009, 09:31:10 AM
Quote from: Valmy on December 02, 2009, 08:51:50 AM
Quote from: Pitiful Pathos on November 30, 2009, 10:55:37 PM
China would be foolish to let the N.Korean regime fall.

Why?  How does an unstable and impoverished country at their borders encouraging Japan and South Korea to build up their militaries and possibly get nuclear weapons and an excuse for the US to post an army near their territory help them?

IMO, the DPRK offers China the following advantages:

(1) It is one of China's (relatively) few allies
(2) NK is a constant thorn in America's side, which ties up US political capital and has the potential to weaken American prestige internationally.
(3) NK offers a useful bargaining chip for the Chinese - they can always offer to put pressure on the regime in exchange for other concessions
(4) Keeping N.Korea weak and the Korean peninsula divided hurts their economic and ideological rivals, the Koreans.  This consequently strengthens Chinese influence in the region
(5) The NK situation keeps US troops and resources tied down in Korea at all times, reducing potential American influence in other theatres, including other Asian ones.
(6) Even if the US didn't have an obvious reason to keep troops in Korea, it still has a sizeable number of troops in nearby Japan, and has the potential to increase that number.  As well, there is no guarantee that all American troops would ever actually leave S.Korea in the event of unification or N.Korean regime change.
(7) N.Korea provides a buffer against the Koreans and potentially the Japanese.  The Chinese still are quite paranoid about Japanese intentions.


Those are just some of the reasons I came up with off the top of my head.  Presumably there are more that the PRC's strategic gurus could come up with.  I'm not saying there aren't disadvantages to the PRC by having the NK regime being what it is, but I think the advantages far outweigh the drawbacks for the ChiComs.

That's why I'm really hoping that when the DPRK collapses, we have a strong and intelligent President who will tell China, in no uncertain terms, that we support Korean unification and expect them to stay out. I don't doubt we'll have to make some compromises, likely withdrawing forces from the Korean peninsula for a start. So hopefully, the DPRK won't collapse during Obama's term, because he'd probably apologize for sending forces to Korea in 1950.


Anyway, the WSJ has a good analysis on the Nork's currency reform: http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052748704107104574570653594393732.html#printMode
Title: Re: Tales from the DPRK
Post by: Josquius on December 02, 2009, 08:44:05 PM
Quote from: HisMajestyBOB on December 02, 2009, 08:19:25 PM

I
That's why I'm really hoping that when the DPRK collapses, we have a strong and intelligent President who will tell China, in no uncertain terms, that we support Korean unification and expect them to stay out. I don't doubt we'll have to make some compromises, likely withdrawing forces from the Korean peninsula for a start. So hopefully, the DPRK won't collapse during Obama's term, because he'd probably apologize for sending forces to Korea in 1950.


Anyway, the WSJ has a good analysis on the Nork's currency reform: http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052748704107104574570653594393732.html#printMode
Whats wrong with withdrawing from Korea?
Especially with no N.Korea to worry about. The S.Koreans themselves aren't exactly happy about the US being there, it saves American money and helps foreign relations with....well everyone concerned.
Title: Re: Tales from the DPRK
Post by: derspiess on December 02, 2009, 09:01:15 PM
Quote from: Pitiful Pathos on December 02, 2009, 09:42:52 AM
pee pee can not to talk now.  but he say he do not watch postings now. he very happiness in people's republic

:lol:
Title: Re: Tales from the DPRK
Post by: Caliga on December 02, 2009, 09:02:15 PM
Henceforth I dub PP: Zig Zag.
Title: Re: Tales from the DPRK
Post by: Jacob on December 02, 2009, 09:28:45 PM
Quote from: Pitiful Pathos on December 02, 2009, 09:31:10 AMIMO, the DPRK offers China the following advantages:

(1) It is one of China's (relatively) few allies
(2) NK is a constant thorn in America's side, which ties up US political capital and has the potential to weaken American prestige internationally.
(3) NK offers a useful bargaining chip for the Chinese - they can always offer to put pressure on the regime in exchange for other concessions
(4) Keeping N.Korea weak and the Korean peninsula divided hurts their economic and ideological rivals, the Koreans.  This consequently strengthens Chinese influence in the region
(5) The NK situation keeps US troops and resources tied down in Korea at all times, reducing potential American influence in other theatres, including other Asian ones.
(6) Even if the US didn't have an obvious reason to keep troops in Korea, it still has a sizeable number of troops in nearby Japan, and has the potential to increase that number.  As well, there is no guarantee that all American troops would ever actually leave S.Korea in the event of unification or N.Korean regime change.
(7) N.Korea provides a buffer against the Koreans and potentially the Japanese.  The Chinese still are quite paranoid about Japanese intentions.


Those are just some of the reasons I came up with off the top of my head.  Presumably there are more that the PRC's strategic gurus could come up with.  I'm not saying there aren't disadvantages to the PRC by having the NK regime being what it is, but I think the advantages far outweigh the drawbacks for the ChiComs.

Also - in the event of a showdown over Taiwan (or even a run up to such a showdown) it's a great place to quagmire a bunch of American troops so they're not available elsewhere.