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Al-Qaida faces recruitment crisis, anti-terrorism experts say
Eight years after 9/11, Osama bin Laden is still at large but willing fighters and ideological support are in short supply
* Ian Black and Richard Norton-Taylor
* guardian.co.uk, Thursday 10 September 2009 18.12 BST
Osama bin Laden's al-Qaida is under heavy pressure in its strongholds in Pakistan's remote tribal areas and is finding it difficult to attract recruits or carry out spectacular operations in western countries, according to government and independent experts monitoring the organisation.
Speaking to the Guardian in advance of tomorrow's eighth anniversary of the 9/11 attacks, western counter-terrorism officials and specialists in the Muslim world said the organisation faced a crisis that was severely affecting its ability to find, inspire and train willing fighters.
Its activity is increasingly dispersed to "affiliates" or "franchises" in Yemen and North Africa, but the links of local or regional jihadi groups to the centre are tenuous; they enjoy little popular support and successes have been limited.
Lethal strikes by CIA drones – including two this week alone – have combined with the monitoring and disruption of electronic communications, suspicion and low morale to take their toll on al-Qaida's Pakistani "core", in the jargon of western intelligence agencies.
Interrogation documents seen by the Guardian show that European Muslim volunteers faced a chaotic reception, a low level of training, poor conditions and eventual disillusionment after arriving in Waziristan last year.
"Core" al-Qaida is now reduced to a senior leadership of six to eight men, including Bin Laden and his Egyptian deputy, Ayman al-Zawahiri, according to most informed estimates. Several other Egyptians, a Libyan and a Mauritanian occupy the other top positions. In all, there are perhaps 200 operatives who count.
The most significant recent development is evidence that al-Qaida's alliance with the Taliban in Pakistan and Afghanistan is fraying, boosting the prospect of acquiring intelligence that will lead to Bin Laden's capture or death. Despite an intensive US-led manhunt, there has not been a credible lead on the Saudi-born al-Qaida leader in years. Bin Laden's nickname among some CIA hunters is "Elvis" because there have been so many false sightings of him.
"Al-Qaida has become a liability for the Taliban," said Mustafa Alani, a terrorism expert at the Gulf research centre in Dubai who visited Waziristan in July. "There is a good possibility that the Pakistanis or the Americans will be able to get good intelligence on the ground and kill Bin Laden."
Intelligence agencies are watching closely to see if Bin Laden issues a message marking tomorrow's 9/11 anniversary, as he has in the past, or leaves it to Zawahiri. Last week one Islamist website promised a "Ramadan gift" from the al-Qaida leader but removed the posting without explanation.
Amid a mood of cautious optimism, some experts talk of a "tipping point" in the fight against al-Qaida. Others argue that only Bin Laden's death will bring significant change. But most agree that the failure to carry out spectacular mass attacks in the west since the 2005 London bombings has weakened the group's "brand appeal" and power to recruit.
"In order to stay relevant al-Qaida have to prove themselves capable and they haven't been able to do that," said Norwegian scholar Brynjar Lia.
Popular sympathy, which drained away because of sectarian killings in Iraq, has dwindled further this year. In Saudi Arabia, according to a recent intelligence report, 60-70% of information about al-Qaida suspects now comes from relatives, friends and neighbours, not from security agencies or surveillance.
Another weakness is in the so-called "war of ideas". This week imprisoned leaders of the Libyan Islamic Fighting Group began publishing a "revision" of their previous understanding of jihad.
"The text in itself is probably not a landmark work of Islamic jurisprudence, but it is important because it adds to ... a corpus of treatises by former militants challenging al-Qaida on theological grounds," Thomas Hegghammer of Harvard University said on the Jihadica website. "Of course, no one text is going to change the world, but put together, these treatises will constrain al-Qaida's recruitment pool somewhat."
Despite a largely positive balance sheet, no one claims the fight against al-Qaida is over or that "victory" can be declared. Robert Mueller, the director of the FBI, said in an interview with USA Today this week: "Yes, they retain the capability of striking overseas. They are still lethal." Intelligence experts say the trends are favourable but point to the IRA maxim that "you only need to get lucky once".
Jonathan Evans, the head of MI5, warned this year that Somalia could become a safe haven for al-Qaida in the way Afghanistan was in 2001. Analysts speak of worries that al-Qaida activity in North Africa and the Sahel could spread to northern Nigeria and affect the UK.
"You haven't lost all those people who were susceptible to the al-Qaida message, ideology or recruitment," said Richard Barrett, co-ordinator of the UN's al-Qaida and Taliban Monitoring Team. "The [al-Qaida leadership] are really under pressure now but could regroup. The conditions remain there, the social factors are all still in place."
A split between al-Qaeda and Taliban would be very useful if we could take advantage of it.
I also love the idea of Western recruits leaving al-Qaeda because they find the 'conditions' poor. Love jihad, but really guys, I need a flush toilet...
Told you it was a fad.
Oh and drones- they're rather good aren't they?
They seem to be having all the successes in the 'war against terror' yet very very little is ever made of them in the media....
Quote from: Tyr on September 10, 2009, 05:48:03 PM
Told you it was a fad.
Oh and drones- they're rather good aren't they?
They seem to be having all the successes in the 'war against terror' yet very very little is ever made of them in the media....
I blame the Terminator franchise.
Quote from: Tyr on September 10, 2009, 05:48:03 PM
Oh and drones- they're rather good aren't they?
They seem to be having all the successes in the 'war against terror' yet very very little is ever made of them in the media....
I believe they can be a bit of a problem at the hearts and minds stuff, but yeah.
They need George Bush back.
Quote from: Sheilbh on September 10, 2009, 08:23:09 PM
Quote from: Tyr on September 10, 2009, 05:48:03 PM
Oh and drones- they're rather good aren't they?
They seem to be having all the successes in the 'war against terror' yet very very little is ever made of them in the media....
I believe they can be a bit of a problem at the hearts and minds stuff, but yeah.
Yeah, I don't think they're sophisticated enough yet to pinpoint body parts.
Quote from: Razgovory on September 10, 2009, 08:32:37 PM
They need George Bush back.
Hansmeister kneejerk reaction of "OH MY GOD HE'S STRENGTHENING AL QUEDA" in 5...4....3...
I read Acorn was going to help them with funding and recruiting.
Quote from: Jaron on September 10, 2009, 08:53:07 PM
I read Acorn was going to help them with funding and recruiting.
You are thinking of the American Communist Party.
If Bin Laden is killed or captured soon I think credit should go to where it's due. JR and me.
Quote from: Razgovory on September 10, 2009, 09:32:20 PM
If Bin Laden is killed or captured soon I think credit should go to where it's due. JR and me.
I'm giving it another month, that's it. So far nothing has been achieved except making Teddy Kennedy collateral damage.
Quote from: Razgovory on September 10, 2009, 09:32:20 PM
If Bin Laden is killed or captured soon I think credit should go to where it's due. JR and me.
Have you been praying really hard?
Quote from: The Minsky Moment on September 10, 2009, 09:56:32 PM
Quote from: Razgovory on September 10, 2009, 09:32:20 PM
If Bin Laden is killed or captured soon I think credit should go to where it's due. JR and me.
I'm giving it another month, that's it. So far nothing has been achieved except making Teddy Kennedy collateral damage.
How long did it take to kill the Polish guy?
Quote from: Peter Wiggin on September 10, 2009, 10:02:46 PM
Quote from: Razgovory on September 10, 2009, 09:32:20 PM
If Bin Laden is killed or captured soon I think credit should go to where it's due. JR and me.
Have you been praying really hard?
No. This is logical and entirely scientific.
Quote from: Queequeg on September 10, 2009, 08:38:13 PM
Quote from: Razgovory on September 10, 2009, 08:32:37 PM
They need George Bush back.
Hansmeister kneejerk reaction of "OH MY GOD HE'S STRENGTHENING AL QUEDA" in 5...4....3...
Come on, let's get serious for a moment. Since when does he need all of 5 seconds for that? It's not as if he has to think!
Interesting article. No surprise as we saw the Iraqi Sunnis turn on AQ in Iraq. And now the Pakistani govt and Tribal leaders and people/militias are turning on AQ and Taliban in the Tribal regions, where they once supported them. But the ideology of the radicals isn't going away soon; that's still there in different forms. Takes time for things to play out and evolve, one way or another.
Quote from: Alatriste on September 11, 2009, 12:28:16 AM
Come on, let's get serious for a moment. Since when does he need all of 5 seconds for that? It's not as if he has to think!
Spell check?
Quote from: KRonn on September 11, 2009, 08:34:26 AM
Interesting article. No surprise as we saw the Iraqi Sunnis turn on AQ in Iraq. And now the Pakistani govt and Tribal leaders and people/militias are turning on AQ and Taliban in the Tribal regions, where they once supported them. But the ideology of the radicals isn't going away soon; that's still there in different forms. Takes time for things to play out and evolve, one way or another.
There was an interview on the BBC with the British commander in either Helmand province or Afghanistan overall. One of his comments struck me as really interesting. He said that the British troops weren't fighting the 'ideological Taliban' by which I'm guessing he means the al-Qaeda-Taliban grouping. Rather they were fighting the 'territorial Taliban' by which I think he means, effectively, Pushtun nationalists. We really have to take advantage of that. I agree with the Iraq comparison. If we can negotiate and work with tribal leaders in Iraq I don't see why we can't do the same with the 'territorial Taliban' and try to split them from the radical al-Qaeda 'ideological Taliban'.
Quote from: Sheilbh on September 11, 2009, 09:40:16 AM
There was an interview on the BBC with the British commander in either Helmand province or Afghanistan overall. One of his comments struck me as really interesting. He said that the British troops weren't fighting the 'ideological Taliban' by which I'm guessing he means the al-Qaeda-Taliban grouping. Rather they were fighting the 'territorial Taliban' by which I think he means, effectively, Pushtun nationalists. We really have to take advantage of that. I agree with the Iraq comparison. If we can negotiate and work with tribal leaders in Iraq I don't see why we can't do the same with the 'territorial Taliban' and try to split them from the radical al-Qaeda 'ideological Taliban'.
Yeah, good points. I think the new NATO/US leadership especially, and probably the former leaders as well, tries to do that. The situations are different between Iraq and Afghanistan, and need to be treated as such, as far as the factions or what ever else. Such as apparently the Karzai govt isn't seen in too well a light and that needs to change. But I'm sure there are similarities to be able to work with and now that more emphasis is on Afghanistan, that emphasis is happening.
Hearing a lot now of Iranian involvement - equipment, training, explosives. Saw a report on the news this morning in fact, of weapons used or caches found, which are Iranian made.
And now many in the US are calling into doubt the efforts there;US Congressmembers questioning the addition of troops. I find that sad, because it seems that we're really just now ramping efforts up, even though we've been there for about eight years. I feared that the Obama admin would face pressure, but didn't expect it so early on, and by some of the Dem leaders.