http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=amPhY4F6FFAs
Last year, the CFTC issued a report that said what common sense and basic Econ 101 would suggest - that traders in commodity swaps and futures markets and "index trackers" were not responsible for the run-up in commodity spot prices.
CFTC has a new chairman now, however, and the new chairman doesn't like that answer. So CFTC is going to gin up a new report that says what its new master wants. And they are holding a three ring circus of hearings where various cranks and interested parties can air their speculator conspiracy theories. This is all red meat for the Michael Moore wing of the congressional democrats (and others who should know better) who are itching to slap on some newly minted regulations and crow to their constituents about how they took on the evil speculators who wanted them to pay more for gas.
Of course, because commodities are fungible and global, and because commodities trading requires only a moderately capitalized exchange with good phone and data connections, there is nothing the CFTC or Congress can do to stop speculative trading in commodities markets. All they can do is influence whether it happens in Chicago and New York where there is at least some transparency, and where American-based exchanges get the benefit of the transaction flow, or whether it moves on to places to Dubai.
I found this article utterly uninspiring. When we're in a time in bad need of change and action, why are we squabbling over theory and what if?
I thought it was understood that speculators drove up the price of oil.
If you want us to get worked up over the CFTC regulating the wrong group of speculators you should probably explain some terms like index tracker Joansky.
Quote from: Admiral Yi on August 04, 2009, 07:08:11 PM
I thought it was understood that speculators drove up the price of oil.
And then they drove it right down again, those bastards!
QuoteIf you want us to get worked up over the CFTC regulating the wrong group of speculators you should probably explain some terms like index tracker Joansky.
index tracker = a fund (like a mutual fund) that tracks a basket of commodities prices. Basically just like you could use a mutual fund to get exposure to and invest in a broad array of stocks, you can buy into a similar fund for commodities. This makes more sense for a retail investor than buying and juggling futures contracts in various metals, oil types, etc.
Do you have a different explanation for the spike in crude prices?
Quote from: The Minsky Moment on August 04, 2009, 07:12:08 PM
Quote from: Admiral Yi on August 04, 2009, 07:08:11 PM
I thought it was understood that speculators drove up the price of oil.
And then they drove it right down again, those bastards!
That can be easily explained. They drove up the prices in the dying days of the asset bubble, and then the prices plummeted right along with the prices of other assets once margin calls came in.
I don't understand the idea that speculators were driving the price up absent an increase in inventory or something really bizarre in futures markets. I read a point of view from a couple months ago that the current price of oil is potentially being inflated by speculators, but there was little evidence the run up was (this was based on inventories).
Quote from: Admiral Yi on August 04, 2009, 07:22:27 PM
Do you have a different explanation for the spike in crude prices?
Inelastic demand + constrained supply + rapidly increasing demand + expectations of increasing demand continuing long term?
Quote from: alfred russel on August 05, 2009, 08:44:49 AM
Inelastic demand + constrained supply + rapidly increasing demand + expectations of increasing demand continuing long term?
Demand didn't increase 100% in a couple of months.
Quote from: Admiral Yi on August 05, 2009, 08:46:52 AM
Quote from: alfred russel on August 05, 2009, 08:44:49 AM
Inelastic demand + constrained supply + rapidly increasing demand + expectations of increasing demand continuing long term?
Demand didn't increase 100% in a couple of months.
If demand is inelastic, a small increase in demand can produce a large increase in price.
Quote from: The Minsky Moment on August 04, 2009, 06:53:12 PM
CFTC has a new chairman now, however, and the new chairman doesn't like that answer. So CFTC is going to gin up a new report that says what its new master wants. And they are holding a three ring circus of hearings where various cranks and interested parties can air their speculator conspiracy theories. This is all red meat for the Michael Moore wing of the congressional democrats (and others who should know better) who are itching to slap on some newly minted regulations and crow to their constituents about how they took on the evil speculators who wanted them to pay more for gas.
So this appears to be more Kangaroo court type proceedings and direction. <_<
Quote from: alfred russel on August 05, 2009, 08:48:54 AM
If demand is inelastic, a small increase in demand can produce a large increase in price.
If demand and supply are extremely inelastic then what you are describing can happen. But demand is elastic. We saw it in the US: prices went up, driving went down.
And if you want to ascribe the spike to changes in market conditions you can't escape the fact that price rose abruptly whereas demand has been increasing gradually and steadily. If 500 million Chinese had bought new cars in the summer of 08 you might have something.
Quote from: Admiral Yi on August 05, 2009, 09:09:52 AM
Quote from: alfred russel on August 05, 2009, 08:48:54 AM
If demand is inelastic, a small increase in demand can produce a large increase in price.
If demand and supply are extremely inelastic then what you are describing can happen. But demand is elastic. We saw it in the US: prices went up, driving went down.
And if you want to ascribe the spike to changes in market conditions you can't escape the fact that price rose abruptly whereas demand has been increasing gradually and steadily. If 500 million Chinese had bought new cars in the summer of 08 you might have something.
Demand is very inelastic in the short term: driving miles went down slightly while prices doubled.
Quote from: alfred russel on August 05, 2009, 08:44:49 AM
Quote from: Admiral Yi on August 04, 2009, 07:22:27 PM
Do you have a different explanation for the spike in crude prices?
Inelastic demand + constrained supply + rapidly increasing demand + expectations of increasing demand continuing long term?
+ rapid depreciation of the dollar
Quote from: alfred russel on August 05, 2009, 09:19:48 AM
Quote from: alfred russel on August 05, 2009, 08:44:49 AM
Quote from: Admiral Yi on August 04, 2009, 07:22:27 PM
Do you have a different explanation for the spike in crude prices?
Inelastic demand + constrained supply + rapidly increasing demand + expectations of increasing demand continuing long term?
+ rapid depreciation of the dollar
Pretty much. Commodity prices in Euro didn't really spike up - they rose but not as dramatically as in US$.
From a certain standpoint, all commodities trading is speculation.
Quote from: Scipio on August 05, 2009, 11:30:28 AM
From a certain standpoint, all trading is speculation.
Fixed. Viewed that way, the proposition becomes a truism. And one not subject to any solution beyond nationalization.
Quote from: Admiral Yi on August 05, 2009, 09:09:52 AM
Quote from: alfred russel on August 05, 2009, 08:48:54 AM
If demand is inelastic, a small increase in demand can produce a large increase in price.
If demand and supply are extremely inelastic then what you are describing can happen. But demand is elastic. We saw it in the US: prices went up, driving went down.
Worldwide energy demand went down as a consequence of the global economic downturn and that fed through to energy prices. But even then there is a time period over which the adjustment occurs. Its not like everyone shuts down all their plants overnight - it is a drawn-out process that plays out over many months.
What I've yet to see is solid affirmative evidence that links alleged speculation in the energy derivatives markets with spot market prices paid for physical quantities.
Cramer: Oil Futures Market Is a 'Farce'
http://media.cnbc.com/i/CNBC/components/Syndicated%20Video%20Player/videomodule.swf?id=1174737140&pcode=cnbcplayershare&play=&base=http://plus.cnbc.com/stickers/partners/cnbcplayershare/ (http://media.cnbc.com/i/CNBC/components/Syndicated%20Video%20Player/videomodule.swf?id=1174737140&pcode=cnbcplayershare&play=&base=http://plus.cnbc.com/stickers/partners/cnbcplayershare/)
Quote from: citizen k on August 05, 2009, 02:25:57 PM
Cramer: Oil Futures Market Is a 'Farce'
http://media.cnbc.com/i/CNBC/components/Syndicated%20Video%20Player/videomodule.swf?id=1174737140&pcode=cnbcplayershare&play=&base=http://plus.cnbc.com/stickers/partners/cnbcplayershare/ (http://media.cnbc.com/i/CNBC/components/Syndicated%20Video%20Player/videomodule.swf?id=1174737140&pcode=cnbcplayershare&play=&base=http://plus.cnbc.com/stickers/partners/cnbcplayershare/)
Does he still have any credibility at all?
Oh. I was hoping this would be a browser game or something. :(