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By war, I mean something more than one or two assets being destroyed followed by a tense stand-off and continued Cold War; nor do I mean intense proxy wars, including ones where the military of one great power is fighting one or more third countries supported by a great power.

By great power I mean the US, China, Russia (grudgingly), and the EU (if the EU ends up acting coherently, but not if it lets itself be picked off piecemeal). I suppose I'd also include other coalitions that could, theoretically, go toe-to-toe with a great power at least for a bit (so, say if Japan, South Korea, and other Pacific allies supported Taiwan versus China or something like that).

I guess another lens to apply is if the war triggers a massive breakdown in the world's economic and political order.

I'm curious what you think are the likely flashpoints for such a conflict, and how they'd play out. How likely is it that they could be kept someone limited, and how likely is it the conflict would escalate to total war? I guess the leading contenders at the moment are Taiwan, Greenland, the Baltics, and Ukraine.

Also feel free to quibble with the definitions.

If such a war does start, we can return to the thread and see who was the most prescient. At least as long as we have internet access.

I voted 50-50. I have no idea really.

I could see China turning on russia eventually.

I could see the EU vs russia if they try shit in the Baltics.

I don't think the US will go for Greenland militarily.

I don't think the US or anyone else would intervene militarily if China went for Taiwan.

I think fairly low risk. I think far, far less chance of it than during the Cold War or pre-WW1.

I think the global situation is looser and more flexible than that. I actually think the risk has declined since Trump took office and came to power. I think there was far more chance of a Cold War or Guns of August style escalation with no off-path under Biden - Adam Tooze has written about his fear that the US was approaching a point of locking in conflcit with China at one point (I can't remember when exactly) and speaking to senior people in the Administration  precisely about that "Guns of August" risk.

I can't really see Russia v China any time soon. Honestly the comparison that keeps coming to my mind there is the British Empire and the Americans.

I don't think the EU is a great power and I don't think it'll become one. I hope I'm proven wrong but I see no evidence that at this point - a diverse multi-state Europe is not going to suddenly become a homogenous, effective superstate that can compete with Russia, China or the US (caveat: Europe advances through crisis - counter to that: that's fine but rearmament has a run-in time). I'd note that the main focus in Brussels at the minute is, in fact, that France and Germany are increasingly on opposite sides on the big decisions - I'm not sure that relationship is still the engine, but it is important and it's been dysfunctional for at least a decade (I'd argue since the crash and Eurozone crisis).

I don't think the US is likely to go to war with Russia or China over any of the areas Russia or China are likely to target. Not under the current administratio and I think Biden was a last gasp of that America. I think maybe the one to watch is the Middle East - especially if there is a revolution in Iran.

I think it's a very low but non zero risk.

But old school power spheres influence seem to be making a comeback.

Quote from: Zoupa on January 10, 2026, 09:12:26 PMI voted 50-50. I have no idea really.

1. I could see China turning on russia eventually.

2. I could see the EU vs russia if they try shit in the Baltics.

3. don't think the US will go for Greenland militarily.

4. I don't think the US or anyone else would intervene militarily if China went for Taiwan.

1. Not as long as Russia's nuclear force remains credible (or Russia is in a position to use it).  A Russia/EU war might see limited nuclear use, but mostly by Russia attempting to intimidate/cow EU nations into surrender or inaction...but I don't think Russia would see even a losing conventional war with the EU as it is now as a real test of national survival.  A war where China makes a grab at mass amounts of Russian territory would scare them into far more desperate action.

2.  Too many variables too predict anything clearly...but I don't think anything will involve a mass invasion, more likely salami tactics to try and grab what they think they can get away with.  That may be the entire Baltics...but I am not sure they would be to chew that big of a morsel all at once.

3. The "at last this will make the sane GOP members rebel" may be spent a spent phrase at this point, but such action might actually make the worms that is Congress turn.

4.  Depends on how they do it.  If China is confident no one will intervene, and focuses on battering Taiwan only...good chance they get away with it.  After all, everybody "legally" recognizes Taiwan as part of China.  If China is not so confident and batters Okinawa or other US bases/forces at the same time, in order to try and neuter US intervention...well, we'll see if the Pearl Harbor spirit still has any play.

Quote from: Sheilbh on January 10, 2026, 09:42:01 PMI think fairly low risk. I think far, far less chance of it than during the Cold War or pre-WW1.

I think the global situation is looser and more flexible than that. I actually think the risk has declined since Trump took office and came to power. I think there was far more chance of a Cold War or Guns of August style escalation with no off-path under Biden - Adam Tooze has written about his fear that the US was approaching a point of locking in conflcit with China at one point (I can't remember when exactly) and speaking to senior people in the Administration  precisely about that "Guns of August" risk.

I can't really see Russia v China any time soon. Honestly the comparison that keeps coming to my mind there is the British Empire and the Americans.

I don't think the EU is a great power and I don't think it'll become one. I hope I'm proven wrong but I see no evidence that at this point - a diverse multi-state Europe is not going to suddenly become a homogenous, effective superstate that can compete with Russia, China or the US (caveat: Europe advances through crisis - counter to that: that's fine but rearmament has a run-in time). I'd note that the main focus in Brussels at the minute is, in fact, that France and Germany are increasingly on opposite sides on the big decisions - I'm not sure that relationship is still the engine, but it is important and it's been dysfunctional for at least a decade (I'd argue since the crash and Eurozone crisis).

I don't think the US is likely to go to war with Russia or China over any of the areas Russia or China are likely to target. Not under the current administratio and I think Biden was a last gasp of that America. I think maybe the one to watch is the Middle East - especially if there is a revolution in Iran.

It's pretty amazing that I think I disagree with all of your takes in this post  :D

Still love ya.

Went with, "Not that likely, but there's still a real chance (~10% to 40%)".

I think its a low chance as long as Trump and MAGA hold power. They seem to be pretty ok with the US collapsing on the global scene and acting as a bully toward weaker countries rather than a pillar of support to international peace and power balance. I see Trump being more than willing to abandon the Baltics to Russia and Taiwan to China. Oddly enough, I almost think that the chances increase dramatically if an old guard Democrat takes office. I could easily see a war against China or Russia utilized as a "rally round the flag" type effort to "mend" the Divided States of America that currently exist.

I voted 60-90. Mostly due to reading some really depressing foreign policy analysis.

While the guesstimates of Russia's strengths are quite diverse, most seem to agree that the PRC is quite strong. And the PRC really wants Taiwan.
With the US surely backing Taiwan against the PRC, the table is more open to a Russian gambit for the Baltic states, Poland and whatever cordon sanitaire Kremlin desires. That means war.

Not that any of this matters, as it is unpredictable what kind of "national interest" the United States will choose to follow. The switch from "soft" ownership through corporations and various unilateral and multilateral agreements to downright annexation described in Stephen Miller's fantasy about Greenland seems very late 19th/early 20th century, but whatever. It seems to resonate with the POTUS, though, who at heart is part conman, part property developer.

My take: not that likely, but a real chance (and towards the higher end of that percentage). Might be optimistic though.

Russia v China - very unlikely.

Russia v EU - this is already a bit past a cold war at the moment, and is likely to continue escalating IMO. The things that could stop it from becoming a great power war are - the EU fails to cohere sufficiently (and thus does not qualify as a great power), Russia suffers an economic collapse under the strain of sustaining a war economy before real fighting starts (though China will likely backstop Russia), or the EU does cohere sufficiently and that's enough to make Russia hold back.

There's a lot of uncertainty here from my POV, primarily about how well the EU holds up. Does it cohere and get stronger? Or does it completely fall apart due to American and Russian hostile actions and/ or internal strain?

US v EU - if the Trumpists continue to hold power, I consider it a real possibility that they will use military force against Europe. There are a number of scenarios where they will not - if Europe coheres sufficiently to be able to make the cost not seem worthwhile, or if it falls apart to render it moot, the US won't. But if the EU charts a middle path (coherent and building forces, but at a slower pace), I would not be surprised to force being applied at some point to push Europe over the edge. That's just one possible path though. In other scenarios it's less likely.

War over Greenland - I believe that if the Trumpist clique remains in power in the US, the US is serious about annexing Greenland. If they can manoeuvre the situation so Greenland falls into their hands peacefully (referendum, some sort of "voluntary sovereignty association", or a "fine, we'll sell you Greenland" concession from Denmark) they'll take that; but if that doesn't happen and if greater fires doesn't take focus away, Trump will absolutely use force to attempt to take Greenland. At that point, the question is how hard does the EU resist, and is that enough for things to escalate to a full on war?

EU v China - very unlikely. Neither really have the ability to fight the other at the moment. At worst it'd be a proxy war with China supplying Russia.

War over Taiwan - I think China is going to hold back on moving on Taiwan in the short term, simply because the conditions continue to improve in their favour. They're improving in terms of technology and capability faster than other powers, and the West is continue to fall apart.

They will move on Taiwan, I'm pretty sure; but they'll try to time it so no one helps Taiwan. Japan has been talking more about explicitly supporting Taiwan in case of an invasion, but I doubt Japan can go it alone. Who else will help them?

It is also possible that the Chinese leadership decides now is the time because they think conditions will start to get less favourable, or for internal political reasons.

US v China - basically comes down to whether the US commits forces to fight China over Taiwan whenever that happens. The likelihood exists, but the odds are decreasing IMO.

War in the Middle East - I don't see a direct confrontation in what's traditionally an arena for proxy wars. Neither China, nor Russia, nor the EU can project forces in sufficient numbers for there to be a great war of any kind; nor do I think they're invested enough to commit to a big war over anything in the Middle East.