https://apnews.com/article/trump-venezuela-maduro-oil-tankers-625a7c9a3106e316c97ceb68a42a1cb5
I guess this ramps up to need its own thread,maybe?
QuoteTrump orders blockade of 'sanctioned oil tankers' into Venezuela, ramping up pressure on Maduro
WASHINGTON (AP) — President Donald Trump said Tuesday he is ordering a blockade of all "sanctioned oil tankers" into Venezuela, ramping up pressure on the country's authoritarian leader Nicolás Maduro in a move that seemed designed to put a tighter chokehold on the South American country's economy.
Trump's escalation comes after U.S. forces last week seized an oil tanker off Venezuela's coast, an unusual move that followed a buildup of military forces in the region. In a post on social media Tuesday night announcing the blockade, Trump alleged Venezuela was using oil to fund drug trafficking and other crimes and vowed to continue the military buildup until the country gave the U.S. oil, land and assets, though it was not clear why he felt the U.S. had a claim.
"Venezuela is completely surrounded by the largest Armada ever assembled in the History of South America," Trump said in a post on his social media platform. "It will only get bigger, and the shock to them will be like nothing they have ever seen before — Until such time as they return to the United States of America all of the Oil, Land, and other Assets that they previously stole from us."
Pentagon officials referred all questions about the post to the White House.
Venezuela's government released a statement Tuesday accusing Trump of "violating international law, free trade, and the principle of free navigation" with "a reckless and grave threat" against the South American country.
"On his social media, he assumes that Venezuela's oil, land, and mineral wealth are his property," the statement said of Trump's post. "Consequently, he demands that Venezuela immediately hand over all its riches. The President of the United States intends to impose, in an utterly irrational manner, a supposed naval blockade on Venezuela with the aim of stealing the wealth that belongs to our nation."
Maduro's government, according to the statement, plans to denounce the situation before the United Nations.
The U.S. buildup has been accompanied by a series of military strikes on boats in international waters in the Caribbean and eastern Pacific. The campaign, which has drawn bipartisan scrutiny among U.S. lawmakers, has killed at least 95 people in 25 known strikes on vessels.
Trump has for weeks said that the U.S. will move its campaign beyond the water and start strikes on land.
The Trump administration has defended the strikes as a success, saying they have prevented drugs from reaching American shores, and pushed back on concerns that they are stretching the bounds of lawful warfare.
The Trump administration has said the campaign is about stopping drugs headed to the U.S., but Trump's chief of staff Susie Wiles appeared to confirm in a Vanity Fair interview published Tuesday that the campaign is part of a push to oust Maduro.
Wiles said Trump "wants to keep on blowing boats up until Maduro cries uncle."
Tuesday night's announcement seemed to have a similar aim.
Venezuela, which has the world's largest proven oil reserves and produces about 1 million barrels a day, has long relied on oil revenue as a lifeblood of its economy.
Since the Trump administration began imposing oil sanctions on Venezuela in 2017, Maduro's government has relied on a shadowy fleet of unflagged tankers to smuggle crude into global supply chains.
The state-owned oil company Petróleos de Venezuela S.A., commonly known as PDVSA, has been locked out of global oil markets by U.S. sanctions. It sells most of its exports at a steep discount in the black market in China.
Francisco Monaldi, a Venezuelan oil expert at Rice University in Houston, said about 850,000 barrels of the 1 million daily production is exported. Of that, he said, 80% goes to China, 15% to 17% goes to the U.S. through Chevron Corp., and the remainder goes to Cuba.
In October, Trump appeared to confirm reports that Maduro has offered a stake in Venezuela's oil and other mineral wealth in recent months to try to stave off mounting pressure from the United States.
"He's offered everything," Trump said at the time. "You know why? Because he doesn't want to f—- around with the United States."
It wasn't immediately clear how the U.S. planned to enact what Trump called a "TOTAL AND COMPLETE BLOCKADE OF ALL SANCTIONED OIL TANKERS going into, and out of, Venezuela."
But the U.S. Navy has 11 ships, including an aircraft carrier and several amphibious assault ships, in the region.
Those ships carry a wide complement of aircraft, including helicopters and V-22 Ospreys. Additionally, the Navy has been operating a handful of P-8 Poseidon maritime patrol aircraft in the region.
All told, those assets provide the military a significant ability to monitor marine traffic coming in and out of the country.
Trump in his post said that the "Venezuelan Regime has been designated a FOREIGN TERRORIST ORGANIZATION," but it wasn't clear what he was referring to.
The foreign terrorist organization designation has been historically reserved for non-state actors that do not have sovereign immunities conferred by either treaties or United Nations membership.
In November, the Trump administration announced it was designating the Cartel de los Soles as a foreign terrorist organization. The term Cartel de los Soles originally referred to Venezuelan military officers involved in drug-running, but it is not a cartel per se.
Governments that U.S. administrations seek to sanction for financing, otherwise fomenting or tolerating extremist violence are usually designated "state sponsors of terrorism."
Venezuela is not on that list.
In rare cases, the U.S. has designated an element of a foreign government as an "FTO." The Trump administration in its first term did so with the Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps, an arm of the Iranian government, which had already been designated a state sponsor of terrorism.
He'll make Maduro rue the day he was late with the protection money.
He is operating like a caricature of a two bit mobster. It'd be comical if people weren't being hurt by his pathological insecurity.
Oh, boy. So this what this was about. It's just a shake down.
I`m kinda stumped as to what land Venezuela stole from the US.
Quote from: Zoupa on December 17, 2025, 02:57:30 AMI`m kinda stumped as to what land Venezuela stole from the US.
It's Trump, but I guess he means land rights from oil companies.
Quote from: Zoupa on December 17, 2025, 02:57:30 AMI`m kinda stumped as to what land Venezuela stole from the US.
The site of the future Trump Hotel Caracas?
He thinks he's emperor of the world, Americans dying to stop him?
Quote from: mongers on December 17, 2025, 07:03:25 AMHe thinks he's emperor of the world, Americans dying to stop him?
Why shouldn't he think that? Law firms, universities, the Supreme Court, Congress, other countries, they're all rolling over for him.
Quote from: mongers on December 17, 2025, 07:03:25 AMHe thinks he's emperor of the world, Americans dying to stop him?
One does indeed wonder where the praetorians are
Quote from: HisMajestyBOB on December 17, 2025, 08:22:37 AMQuote from: mongers on December 17, 2025, 07:03:25 AMHe thinks he's emperor of the world, Americans dying to stop him?
Why shouldn't he think that? Law firms, universities, the Supreme Court, Congress, other countries, they're all rolling over for him.
He also has the adoration of 50% of the voting public and the acquiescence if not right out support of another large chunk. The American public is not free of blame. And for however much longer they're a democracy* the population also bares the moral burden of what's happening.
*only kind of joking.
Quote from: HVC on December 17, 2025, 08:59:35 AMQuote from: HisMajestyBOB on December 17, 2025, 08:22:37 AMQuote from: mongers on December 17, 2025, 07:03:25 AMHe thinks he's emperor of the world, Americans dying to stop him?
Why shouldn't he think that? Law firms, universities, the Supreme Court, Congress, other countries, they're all rolling over for him.
He also has the adoration of 50% of the voting public and the acquiescence if not right out support of another large chunk. The American public is not free of blame. And for however much longer they're a democracy* the population also bares the moral burden of what's happening.
*only kind of joking.
That math ain't mathing.
Quote from: garbon on December 17, 2025, 10:09:40 AMQuote from: HVC on December 17, 2025, 08:59:35 AMQuote from: HisMajestyBOB on December 17, 2025, 08:22:37 AMQuote from: mongers on December 17, 2025, 07:03:25 AMHe thinks he's emperor of the world, Americans dying to stop him?
Why shouldn't he think that? Law firms, universities, the Supreme Court, Congress, other countries, they're all rolling over for him.
He also has the adoration of 50% of the voting public and the acquiescence if not right out support of another large chunk. The American public is not free of blame. And for however much longer they're a democracy* the population also bares the moral burden of what's happening.
*only kind of joking.
That math ain't mathing.
You don't have 100% voter turn out :P
Quote from: celedhring on December 17, 2025, 03:18:33 AMQuote from: Zoupa on December 17, 2025, 02:57:30 AMI`m kinda stumped as to what land Venezuela stole from the US.
It's Trump, but I guess he means land rights from oil companies.
You are being far too charitable. The entire thing is made up. He is just ranting nonsense into the wind.
Quote from: HVC on December 17, 2025, 08:59:35 AMHe also has the adoration of 50% of the voting public and the acquiescence if not right out support of another large chunk. The American public is not free of blame. And for however much longer they're a democracy* the population also bares the moral burden of what's happening.
*only kind of joking.
Public opinion surveys suggest that this is a wild exaggeration.
Agre about the moral burden, though. Having second thoughts does not excuse making the irredeemable mistake of voting for him in the first place.
35-40% of voting Americans supporting this parade of lunacy is nothing to boast about. Horrifying really.
Quote from: grumbler on December 17, 2025, 10:23:07 AMQuote from: HVC on December 17, 2025, 08:59:35 AMHe also has the adoration of 50% of the voting public and the acquiescence if not right out support of another large chunk. The American public is not free of blame. And for however much longer they're a democracy* the population also bares the moral burden of what's happening.
*only kind of joking.
Public opinion surveys suggest that this is a wild exaggeration.
Agre about the moral burden, though. Having second thoughts does not excuse making the irredeemable mistake of voting for him in the first place.
Public polls said he was going to lose... twice. They've lost some credibility :D
A former US ambassador has put forth the idea trump is planning to attack Venezuela to line up with the epstein files being released..... Which does make sense
Quote from: The Minsky Moment on December 17, 2025, 10:25:31 AM35-40% of voting Americans supporting this parade of lunacy is nothing to boast about. Horrifying really.
True, but it would be a more salient observation if there was anyone here actually boasting about it.
Quote from: Josquius on December 17, 2025, 11:31:36 AMA former US ambassador has put forth the idea trump is planning to attack Venezuela to line up with the epstein files being released..... Which does make sense
In the days before internet media that might work, only so much space on the front page after all, but that method is a lot less effective now.
Quote from: HVC on December 17, 2025, 11:35:07 AMQuote from: Josquius on December 17, 2025, 11:31:36 AMA former US ambassador has put forth the idea trump is planning to attack Venezuela to line up with the epstein files being released..... Which does make sense
In the days before internet media that might work, only so much space on the front page after all, but that method is a lot less effective now.
I'm not so sure. If your feed is full of one thing then you'd have to be specifically interested in the other and actively seek it out.
You can't reclaim democracy with polls.
Quote from: Josquius on December 17, 2025, 11:40:50 AMQuote from: HVC on December 17, 2025, 11:35:07 AMQuote from: Josquius on December 17, 2025, 11:31:36 AMA former US ambassador has put forth the idea trump is planning to attack Venezuela to line up with the epstein files being released..... Which does make sense
In the days before internet media that might work, only so much space on the front page after all, but that method is a lot less effective now.
I'm not so sure. If your feed is full of one thing then you'd have to be specifically interested in the other and actively seek it out.
But the people interested can find what they need. And the Epstein files are juicy enough to have a following. Then theres YouTube, and podcasts and even old school forums (like languish :P ) so even people without interest get exposure. There are infinitely more sources of information now. That has many, many, many downfalls but there are still some benefits.
Quote from: Oexmelin on December 17, 2025, 11:41:10 AMYou can't reclaim democracy with polls.
Squirt guns aren't much help, either.
For sure.
Quote from: HVC on December 17, 2025, 11:43:53 AMQuote from: Josquius on December 17, 2025, 11:40:50 AMQuote from: HVC on December 17, 2025, 11:35:07 AMQuote from: Josquius on December 17, 2025, 11:31:36 AMA former US ambassador has put forth the idea trump is planning to attack Venezuela to line up with the epstein files being released..... Which does make sense
In the days before internet media that might work, only so much space on the front page after all, but that method is a lot less effective now.
I'm not so sure. If your feed is full of one thing then you'd have to be specifically interested in the other and actively seek it out.
But the people interested can find what they need. And the Epstein files are juicy enough to have a following. Then theres YouTube, and podcasts and even old school forums (like languish :P ) so even people without interest get exposure. There are infinitely more sources of information now. That has many, many, many downfalls but there are still some benefits.
Yeah, but the people actively interested in anyrhing political are already a minority. One that already thinks Trump is the devil.
It's the average American they care about. The politics they get is what shows up on their feed, they aren't hunting for it.
Quote from: grumbler on December 17, 2025, 11:44:39 AMQuote from: Oexmelin on December 17, 2025, 11:41:10 AMYou can't reclaim democracy with polls.
Squirt guns aren't much help, either.
That's why we throw soup at paintings.
Quote from: Josquius on December 17, 2025, 11:31:36 AMA former US ambassador has put forth the idea trump is planning to attack Venezuela to line up with the epstein files being released..... Which does make sense
If and when Trump actually countenances the use of the American forces to enact regime change it will be the crossing of a significant line. Typically it requires a certain level of moral clarity and taking of responsibility that is anathema to Trump's core being.
How well will his equivocating, wink-wink nudge-nudge blame games and bluster play out when people start dying in numbers as a direct result of his decisions?
Traditionally Americans exhibit a significant level of rallying around the flag when they engage in a new military conflict. How much will that play out here?
I expect the success of the endeavour will also have an impact. If it's an unmitigated disaster for Americans, that will play out differently than if it's a surgical display of pure American dominance (though social media will play a role here, no doubt).
It certainly will be interesting to see what happens in a scenario where Trump overcomes his aversion to deploying the US military, if it becomes habitual (whether he's actually making a decision himself, or whether it's a pro-war clique inside his administration who pushed it through).
Also, I feel like for a traditional American regime change intervention, we should be seeing a massive media ramp up explaining why the Venezuelan regime is evil and how it would be morally wrong to not overthrow them right now. I've basically seen none of that - either they're not doing it, or they're doing it but I'm so far outside the target group that I'm not even seeing it second hand.
Quote from: HVC on December 17, 2025, 10:32:43 AMQuote from: grumbler on December 17, 2025, 10:23:07 AMQuote from: HVC on December 17, 2025, 08:59:35 AMHe also has the adoration of 50% of the voting public and the acquiescence if not right out support of another large chunk. The American public is not free of blame. And for however much longer they're a democracy* the population also bares the moral burden of what's happening.
*only kind of joking.
Public opinion surveys suggest that this is a wild exaggeration.
Agre about the moral burden, though. Having second thoughts does not excuse making the irredeemable mistake of voting for him in the first place.
Public polls said he was going to lose... twice. They've lost some credibility :D
Public polls had him ahead this last time. Don't make shit up.
Quote from: Jacob on December 17, 2025, 02:47:56 PMQuote from: Josquius on December 17, 2025, 11:31:36 AMA former US ambassador has put forth the idea trump is planning to attack Venezuela to line up with the epstein files being released..... Which does make sense
If and when Trump actually countenances the use of the American forces to enact regime change it will be the crossing of a significant line. Typically it requires a certain level of moral clarity and taking of responsibility that is anathema to Trump's core being.
How well will his equivocating, wink-wink nudge-nudge blame games and bluster play out when people start dying in numbers as a direct result of his decisions?
Traditionally Americans exhibit a significant level of rallying around the flag when they engage in a new military conflict. How much will that play out here?
I expect the success of the endeavour will also have an impact. If it's an unmitigated disaster for Americans, that will play out differently than if it's a surgical display of pure American dominance (though social media will play a role here, no doubt).
It certainly will be interesting to see what happens in a scenario where Trump overcomes his aversion to deploying the US military, if it becomes habitual (whether he's actually making a decision himself, or whether it's a pro-war clique inside his administration who pushed it through).
Also, I feel like for a traditional American regime change intervention, we should be seeing a massive media ramp up explaining why the Venezuelan regime is evil and how it would be morally wrong to not overthrow them right now. I've basically seen none of that - either they're not doing it, or they're doing it but I'm so far outside the target group that I'm not even seeing it second hand.
You don't need any media ramp up if there's no real pushback from civilians against anything you do.
Quote from: Zoupa on December 17, 2025, 03:34:53 PMYou don't need any media ramp up if there's no real pushback from civilians against anything you do.
... or if you don't care about international reactions and coalitions. Which, it seems clear, Trump does not.
Re: civilian pushback, opposition to war is one of the more common things for civilian opposition to coalesce around.
That said, it seems clear that the Trump coalition is pretty confident that they can manage civilian opposition with a combination of social media narratives, social controls, and jackbooted thugs in government employ.
I guess its weird with venezeula as its a long standing embodiment of socialism = bad = woke liberal left which is already pretty built up as fact with the maga crowd. Not quite the same as some random middle eastern dictatorship which clearly isn't linked to anything at home.
Otto was right in the other thread; invasion is not on the menu. It's always about putting on a show.
Quote from: Jacob on December 17, 2025, 02:47:56 PMQuote from: Josquius on December 17, 2025, 11:31:36 AMA former US ambassador has put forth the idea trump is planning to attack Venezuela to line up with the epstein files being released..... Which does make sense
If and when Trump actually countenances the use of the American forces to enact regime change it will be the crossing of a significant line. Typically it requires a certain level of moral clarity and taking of responsibility that is anathema to Trump's core being.
How well will his equivocating, wink-wink nudge-nudge blame games and bluster play out when people start dying in numbers as a direct result of his decisions?
Traditionally Americans exhibit a significant level of rallying around the flag when they engage in a new military conflict. How much will that play out here?
I expect the success of the endeavour will also have an impact. If it's an unmitigated disaster for Americans, that will play out differently than if it's a surgical display of pure American dominance (though social media will play a role here, no doubt).
It certainly will be interesting to see what happens in a scenario where Trump overcomes his aversion to deploying the US military, if it becomes habitual (whether he's actually making a decision himself, or whether it's a pro-war clique inside his administration who pushed it through).
Also, I feel like for a traditional American regime change intervention, we should be seeing a massive media ramp up explaining why the Venezuelan regime is evil and how it would be morally wrong to not overthrow them right now. I've basically seen none of that - either they're not doing it, or they're doing it but I'm so far outside the target group that I'm not even seeing it second hand.
The problem for Trump is that he has no cards. Maduro knows that the Law of TACO will save him if he just holds out, and Trump surely knows that he hasn't assembled anything like the force necessary to actually invade.
Venezuelans largely hate Maduro, but that doesn't mean they'd greet an invasion.
Yeah, I agree with you and with Otto. It's most likely bluster.
Maduro could also try flattering Trump... that might buy some time.
Quote from: Valmy on December 17, 2025, 03:08:50 PMQuote from: HVC on December 17, 2025, 10:32:43 AMQuote from: grumbler on December 17, 2025, 10:23:07 AMQuote from: HVC on December 17, 2025, 08:59:35 AMHe also has the adoration of 50% of the voting public and the acquiescence if not right out support of another large chunk. The American public is not free of blame. And for however much longer they're a democracy* the population also bares the moral burden of what's happening.
*only kind of joking.
Public opinion surveys suggest that this is a wild exaggeration.
Agre about the moral burden, though. Having second thoughts does not excuse making the irredeemable mistake of voting for him in the first place.
Public polls said he was going to lose... twice. They've lost some credibility :D
Public polls had him ahead this last time. Don't make shit up.
Then my recollection is faulty, sorry.
Quote from: Zoupa on December 17, 2025, 03:34:53 PMYou don't need any media ramp up if there's no real pushback from civilians against anything you do.
It's not at all clear to me what you expect civilians to do.
Quote from: Razgovory on December 17, 2025, 09:40:14 PMIt's not at all clear to me what you expect civilians to do.
Zoupa has been clear. He wants us to start a civil war.
I would never. Instead, maybe have another No Kings protest in a few months, on a Saturday, then post about it from your suburban home on your L shaped couch. Also answer polls saying booo Trump.
That'll teach 'em!
Also, make sure not to damage ANY Waymo cars during those protests. Let's keep it civilized.
Man, they are already killed Charlie Kirk. What the fuck else do you want?
Who's they? :homestar:
Also, I don't want anything lol. It's your country my dudes.
I think there's a significant chance trump will do this, try to topple Maduro.
My reasoning is, trumps in love with all things 1980s, when he felt he was in his prime, so he's deluded enough to think he can go one better than G.H.W.Bush and repeat an operation like the 1989 Panama invasion.
Incidentally the 36th anniversary of which is in about 48 hours time. :hmm:
Quote from: Razgovory on December 17, 2025, 09:40:14 PMQuote from: Zoupa on December 17, 2025, 03:34:53 PMYou don't need any media ramp up if there's no real pushback from civilians against anything you do.
It's not at all clear to me what you expect civilians to do.
Btw I was voicing an opinion on why there's no media ramp up. It remains to be seen if any further military action will take place regarding Venezuela. I don't expect anything in particular from US civilians and am not sure why you'd read my post as a call to arms or something.
Quote from: Zoupa on December 17, 2025, 10:30:43 PMWho's they? :homestar:
You'd have to ask Candace Owens.
Quote from: Zoupa on December 17, 2025, 10:22:26 PMhave another No Kings protest in a few months, on a Saturday, then post about it from your suburban home on your L shaped couch
Stop spying on me, damn you!
Quote from: Savonarola on December 18, 2025, 08:29:54 AMQuote from: Zoupa on December 17, 2025, 10:30:43 PMWho's they? :homestar:
You'd have to ask Candace Owens.
What's funny is that the crazier she becomes, the more popular her show is. :lol:
Oh man :yuk:
Apparently the Russians made quite an angry warning against Trump attacking Venezuela, so it is not going to happen.
Quote from: grumbler on December 17, 2025, 11:44:39 AMQuote from: Oexmelin on December 17, 2025, 11:41:10 AMYou can't reclaim democracy with polls.
Squirt guns aren't much help, either.
2nd amendment has its limits, I guess?
Quote from: Valmy on December 17, 2025, 03:08:50 PMQuote from: HVC on December 17, 2025, 10:32:43 AMQuote from: grumbler on December 17, 2025, 10:23:07 AMQuote from: HVC on December 17, 2025, 08:59:35 AMHe also has the adoration of 50% of the voting public and the acquiescence if not right out support of another large chunk. The American public is not free of blame. And for however much longer they're a democracy* the population also bares the moral burden of what's happening.
*only kind of joking.
Public opinion surveys suggest that this is a wild exaggeration.
Agre about the moral burden, though. Having second thoughts does not excuse making the irredeemable mistake of voting for him in the first place.
Public polls said he was going to lose... twice. They've lost some credibility :D
Public polls had him ahead this last time. Don't make shit up.
https://www.economist.com/interactive/us-2024-election/trump-harris-polls
https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2024/us/elections/polls-president.html
These two show Kamala winning the popular vote.
You have a Wikipedia article here about polling accuracy:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2024_United_States_presidential_election#Polling_accuracy
Tl;dr:
Polls were "inacurate" within the margin of error, about 3%. In Iowa, Trump won by 13% while one famous pollster predicted a Kamal win by 3%.
Trump was predicted to win Texas and Florida by 7%, he won them by 13%.
2024 polls were more accurate than 2016.
Quote from: Jacob on December 17, 2025, 03:52:55 PMRe: civilian pushback, opposition to war is one of the more common things for civilian opposition to coalesce around.
Only if there are soldiers coming back home in body bags.
And even then.
You can't say there's mounting opposition to the war in Russia. It has been successfully squashed. If there's still any opposition left, they're keeping quiet.
There's no plan for a ground invasion of Venezuela. Worst case scenario is a couple of planes of helicopters lost, injuries on board a ship. Same as with previous military interventions.
Nothing to generate massive riots. A few protests here and there that won't be covered by national medias. Nothing to traumatize a President.
Quote from: Razgovory on December 17, 2025, 10:24:50 PMMan, they are already killed Charlie Kirk. What the fuck else do you want?
Who killed Kirk? Was there some kind of nefarious plot that the FBI isn't aware of?
Man, what are you waiting for? Why don't you contact them with that info?
Quote from: Tamas on December 18, 2025, 05:14:20 PMApparently the Russians made quite an angry warning against Trump attacking Venezuela, so it is not going to happen.
OK so he'll turn on Guyana instead. :ph34r:
Quote from: Razgovory on December 17, 2025, 10:24:50 PMMan, they are already killed Charlie Kirk. What the fuck else do you want?
It was one weird internet brained freak.
And Kirk was just some random debate bro. Not sure what killing him does for anybody.
Quote from: Valmy on December 18, 2025, 10:33:53 PMQuote from: Razgovory on December 17, 2025, 10:24:50 PMMan, they are already killed Charlie Kirk. What the fuck else do you want?
It was one weird internet brained freak.
And Kirk was just some random debate bro. Not sure what killing him does for anybody.
Eh, he was pretty big in Republican circles. He wasn't in the President's inner circle, but he met with the President several times. It's not like he was some rando. Turning Point raised hundreds of millions of dollars.
I was not impressed with people cheering his death or coming up with conspiracy theories to deflect blame.
US senators celebrated the right wing Trumpist killing 2 Minnesota politicians. I think that's more impactful than randos on twitter or facebook making fun of Charlie Kirk's murder.
Quote from: Razgovory on December 19, 2025, 12:01:00 AMQuote from: Valmy on December 18, 2025, 10:33:53 PMQuote from: Razgovory on December 17, 2025, 10:24:50 PMMan, they are already killed Charlie Kirk. What the fuck else do you want?
It was one weird internet brained freak.
And Kirk was just some random debate bro. Not sure what killing him does for anybody.
Eh, he was pretty big in Republican circles. He wasn't in the President's inner circle, but he met with the President several times. It's not like he was some rando. Turning Point raised hundreds of millions of dollars.
I was not impressed with people cheering his death or coming up with conspiracy theories to deflect blame.
Blame from who? Who deserves blame?
At least the people celebrating his death was not Joe Biden or somebody. Just some randos and d-list celebrities. A bunch probably bots. And if somebody celebrating thinking his cause experienced a setback was misguided anyway. It was just another of an endless series of pointless and tragic shootings in this country.
Turning point was funded for hundreds of millions and he was the dude tasked to be its face but he was just some easily replaceable debate bro. Lots of transeant media stars pass through that ecosystem. Who is a big deal today will be forgotten tomorrow.
Quite a lot of people claimed with confidence that the killer of Charlie Kirk was a Groyper. There was no evidence at all for this. This was a simply a wretched attempt to shift blame for the killing from Left to Right. The coup counting with political violence is unseemly.
Quote from: Zoupa on December 19, 2025, 12:33:34 AMUS senators celebrated the right wing Trumpist killing 2 Minnesota politicians. I think that's more impactful than randos on twitter or facebook making fun of Charlie Kirk's murder.
Who were the US senators who did this?
Quote from: Razgovory on December 19, 2025, 10:49:14 AMQuite a lot of people claimed with confidence that the killer of Charlie Kirk was a Groyper. There was no evidence at all for this. This was a simply a wretched attempt to shift blame for the killing from Left to Right. The coup counting with political violence is unseemly.
How was the left responsible? He was just some Internet brained freak. Hardly mainstream anything.
If it is unseemly then why are you doing it?
Quote from: Razgovory on December 19, 2025, 10:49:39 AMQuote from: Zoupa on December 19, 2025, 12:33:34 AMUS senators celebrated the right wing Trumpist killing 2 Minnesota politicians. I think that's more impactful than randos on twitter or facebook making fun of Charlie Kirk's murder.
Who were the US senators who did this?
Google tells me Mike Lee. And from elsewhere Derrick Van Orden.
Away from the celebrators there was also quite a lot of silence.
QuoteQuite a lot of people claimed with confidence that the killer of Charlie Kirk was a Groyper. There was no evidence at all for this. This was a simply a wretched attempt to shift blame for the killing from Left to Right. The coup counting with political violence is unseemly.
Come off it.
Some evidence did point that way. The reality is unknown. But this remains plausible.
This is the opposite of the reality where there was an active attempt to smear the left as a whole with it before the body was even cold.
Quote from: Razgovory on December 19, 2025, 10:49:39 AMQuote from: Zoupa on December 19, 2025, 12:33:34 AMUS senators celebrated the right wing Trumpist killing 2 Minnesota politicians. I think that's more impactful than randos on twitter or facebook making fun of Charlie Kirk's murder.
Who were the US senators who did this?
Yeah ok you demand receipts but never provide them yourself. Pretty lame. Googling in fucking 2 seconds is too hard?
Anyway Mike Lee, Bernie Moreno, Donald Trump Jr., Laura Loomer, and Elon Musk all had pretty gross things to say about it. Loomer even said Walz had ordered them murdered.
But that's fine. What's really outrageous is some random person you won't name might have implied the shooter of Kirk was part of a fringe Internet right wing group when clearly it was the collective responsibility of everybody left of center. And you provide no evidence of this.
The pattern seems to be when Raz says a lot of people it's the impression he gets from Facebook.
Except Mike Lee did not celebrate their deaths. He attempted to shift blame to his political enemies. Just like when people claimed without any evidence whatsoever that the guy who killed Charlie Kirk was a Groyper. It is pathetic. Of course I knew this, I asked for receipts because I knew Zoupa didn't have them. But of course, he might come through and find two US senators who celebrated the deaths of Minnesota state reps.
Quote from: Valmy on December 19, 2025, 11:47:06 AMQuote from: Razgovory on December 19, 2025, 10:49:39 AMQuote from: Zoupa on December 19, 2025, 12:33:34 AMUS senators celebrated the right wing Trumpist killing 2 Minnesota politicians. I think that's more impactful than randos on twitter or facebook making fun of Charlie Kirk's murder.
Who were the US senators who did this?
Yeah ok you demand receipts but never provide them yourself. Pretty lame. Googling in fucking 2 seconds is too hard?
Anyway Mike Lee, Bernie Moreno, Donald Trump Jr., Laura Loomer, and Elon Musk all had pretty gross things to say about it. Loomer even said Walz had ordered them murdered.
But that's fine. What's really outrageous is some random person you won't name might have implied the shooter of Kirk was part of a fringe Internet right wing group when clearly it was the collective responsibility of everybody left of center. And you provide no evidence of this.
I can name people. You want me to name Sophie? I can do that. Sophie brought up the Groyper bullshit here.
Quote from: Sophie Scholl on September 12, 2025, 08:46:03 PM547762312_1354961789973189_6862355913328050956_n.jpg
Quote from: HVC on December 19, 2025, 12:02:30 PMThe pattern seems to be when Raz says a lot of people it's the impression he gets from Facebook.
Also what people say here.
Quote from: Josquius on December 19, 2025, 11:38:37 AMCome off it.
Some evidence did point that way. The reality is unknown. But this remains plausible.
This is the opposite of the reality where there was an active attempt to smear the left as a whole with it before the body was even cold.
The evidence was that he once wore a track suit and played. Trying to shift blame like this so... far-right of you.
Quote from: Razgovory on December 19, 2025, 12:47:42 PMQuote from: Josquius on December 19, 2025, 11:38:37 AMCome off it.
Some evidence did point that way. The reality is unknown. But this remains plausible.
This is the opposite of the reality where there was an active attempt to smear the left as a whole with it before the body was even cold.
The evidence was that he once wore a track suit and played. Trying to shift blame like this so... far-right of you.
:blink:
You're the one trying to pin a label on him to suit your needs.
The dominant narrative was that he was a far left extremist despite the evidence being such that he could equally be far right or (it seems?) apolitical.
Seriously, your radicalisation grows all the weirder.
:yawn:
Quote from: Razgovory on December 19, 2025, 12:25:20 PMExcept Mike Lee did not celebrate their deaths. He attempted to shift blame to his political enemies. Just like when people claimed without any evidence whatsoever that the guy who killed Charlie Kirk was a Groyper. It is pathetic. Of course I knew this, I asked for receipts because I knew Zoupa didn't have them. But of course, he might come through and find two US senators who celebrated the deaths of Minnesota state reps.
Mike Lee celebrated their deaths by using memes and laughing about it. Elon Musk, then a federal gvt employee, posted to his hundred of millions of followers that "The left has become a full blown domestic terrorist organization. The far left is murderously violent" before an arrest was made. Laura Loomer said the murderer had ties to the No Kings protests and that Walz knew him.
A US senator, the richest man in history and crazy lady that nevertheless has the ear of the President vs random ppl on your facebook feed: which group do you think has more power and influence.
Stop trying to "both sides" this stuff. One side is clearly worse.
Quote from: Razgovory on December 19, 2025, 12:33:28 PMQuote from: HVC on December 19, 2025, 12:02:30 PMThe pattern seems to be when Raz says a lot of people it's the impression he gets from Facebook.
Also what people say here.
Getting off Facebook would do you a world of good. And that's advice that works for most people, actually.
Perhaps show you me exactly what this celebration looked like. I can't fine anything where he "celebrated" it. I looked around and couldn't find anything. Also please show me the other senator who did that. You used the plural.
Quote from: HVC on December 19, 2025, 07:47:59 PMQuote from: Razgovory on December 19, 2025, 12:33:28 PMQuote from: HVC on December 19, 2025, 12:02:30 PMThe pattern seems to be when Raz says a lot of people it's the impression he gets from Facebook.
Also what people say here.
Getting off Facebook would do you a world of good. And that's advice that works for most people, actually.
Sophie posts on Facebook? Also articles on Axios and the Atlantic.
Quote from: Razgovory on December 19, 2025, 08:45:14 PMQuote from: HVC on December 19, 2025, 07:47:59 PMQuote from: Razgovory on December 19, 2025, 12:33:28 PMQuote from: HVC on December 19, 2025, 12:02:30 PMThe pattern seems to be when Raz says a lot of people it's the impression he gets from Facebook.
Also what people say here.
Getting off Facebook would do you a world of good. And that's advice that works for most people, actually.
Sophie posts on Facebook? Also articles on Axios and the Atlantic.
I mean if you follow Sophie on Facebook then sure, stop reading what she posts there :lol:
Honestly I think you guys are kinda echo-chambery. :)
Quote from: Razgovory on December 19, 2025, 08:40:33 PMPerhaps show you me exactly what this celebration looked like. I can't fine anything where he "celebrated" it. I looked around and couldn't find anything. Also please show me the other senator who did that. You used the plural.
You can use semantics all you want, it doesn't detract from my point.
Quote from: Razgovory on December 19, 2025, 08:51:10 PMHonestly I think you guys are kinda echo-chambery. :)
K, what's that have to do with the ills of Facebook? You want a separate echo chamber that echos your preferred biased views? If so you do you then :)
Quote from: Razgovory on December 19, 2025, 08:51:10 PMHonestly I think you guys are kinda echo-chambery. :)
Well fucking good for us.
Fits right in on the internet anyway.
"Echo chamber" = "you happen to disagree with me and agree somewhat with each other, so I'll use a term to make that sound bad"
Quote from: Jacob on December 19, 2025, 09:39:29 PM"Echo chamber" = "you happen to disagree with me and agree somewhat with each other, so I'll use a term to make that sound bad"
It's just weird insult overall. No community, be it physical or virtual, can survive without at least some shared views. You just gotta pick which echo chamber you prefer. He just prefers the one that seems designed to enrage and radicalize old people.
Quote from: Zoupa on December 19, 2025, 08:51:32 PMQuote from: Razgovory on December 19, 2025, 08:40:33 PMPerhaps show you me exactly what this celebration looked like. I can't fine anything where he "celebrated" it. I looked around and couldn't find anything. Also please show me the other senator who did that. You used the plural.
You can use semantics all you want, it doesn't detract from my point.
So... you lied. I get it.
Quote from: Jacob on December 19, 2025, 09:39:29 PM"Echo chamber" = "you happen to disagree with me and agree somewhat with each other, so I'll use a term to make that sound bad"
As in "stop listening to other sources. It's making you disagree with us".
It's not an insult, it's observation. I'm not exactly clear on why you are talking about facebook in this context. That I go to lots of websites where people disagree with me? Certainly I do see hateful extremism and batshit conspiracy stuff on Facebook. And I often see those extremists point to the other side and say "no, the real bad guys, the real hate, the real violence comes other side. It's always the other side, whatever faults we have, the other side is worse. They are the ones that you need to watch out for!" So it's somewhat distressing when I see same arguments here.
Why don't you look at data then, see where most of the violence originates. I'm not even talking about violent speech, but violent actions motivated by political beliefs. You can scream "both-sides!!!" all you want, but outside of your computer screen is the real world, and the real world tells a story of one side overwhelmingly being more violent than the other.
As far as I know Zoupa, the only one on this board who directly advocated for political violence in the US on this board... is you.
Gonna repeat myself since you seem to have missed it:
Why don't you look at data then, see where most of the violence originates. I'm not even talking about violent speech, but violent actions motivated by political beliefs. You can scream "both-sides!!!" all you want, but outside of your computer screen is the real world, and the real world tells a story of one side overwhelmingly being more violent than the other.
Quote from: HVC on December 19, 2025, 08:49:21 PMI mean if you follow Sophie on Facebook then sure, stop reading what she posts there :lol:
:o
Quote from: Sophie Scholl on December 20, 2025, 02:12:22 AMQuote from: HVC on December 19, 2025, 08:49:21 PMI mean if you follow Sophie on Facebook then sure, stop reading what she posts there :lol:
:o
Take one for the team :P
Do I have to take that bullet like Trump or Kirk, though? :hmm:
Quote from: Sophie Scholl on December 20, 2025, 02:24:38 AMDo I have to take that bullet like Trump or Kirk, though? :hmm:
I mean, I don't think Raz wants to shot you :unsure:
Take one for the team/take a bullet was the attempt at the joke there. :(
Quote from: Sophie Scholl on December 20, 2025, 02:35:03 AMTake one for the team/take a bullet was the attempt at the joke there. :(
I got it, I just didn't reply in a jokey enough manner. I blame insomnia :P
:hug:
Quote from: Zoupa on December 20, 2025, 01:43:24 AMGonna repeat myself since you seem to have missed it:
Why don't you look at data then, see where most of the violence originates. I'm not even talking about violent speech, but violent actions motivated by political beliefs. You can scream "both-sides!!!" all you want, but outside of your computer screen is the real world, and the real world tells a story of one side overwhelmingly being more violent than the other.
I have seen the data. Here's the thing. It ebbs and flows. In the 1960's and the 1970's it was heavily left-wing violence. That faded, and right-wing violence outpaced left-wing violence (excepting Islamic violence which was seen as right-wing but now seems to be inspirational anti-colonial left-wing activism). This year left-wing violence has exploded. And suddenly YOU are advocating for violence while bizarrely pointing to other people.
And yeah, I know why. I'm seeing something similar from other Canadian posters, though not as direct. You're scared. Trump has made some absurd statements about annexing Canada and now you want us to rise up and fight to protect you. You want me, and other Americans to sacrifice our life for yours in some sort of fight against Trump. Trump is just talk, but even if it wasn't, I don't think you are worth saving, Zoupa. I'm sure you are nice enough in person, for a racist and a liar, but why should any American defend you? You despise us.
If you want to see a fight against a kleptocratic authoritarianism just wait. This cancer is spreading. Britain will get it's own soon, and I imagine France will follow. Eventually it will come to Canada. Then you can dust off a rifle and get your own chance at anticolonial struggle.
So, about Venezuela...?
Pretty sure my colleague won't be able to visit his family for a while.
That was certainly something, Raz. :huh:
I'm glad you looked at the historical data, in any case.
He's right tho. The fascists will come for us in time too. Left leaning Americans won't help us and will hide behind the fact that they didn't vote for them the first and second time.
They'll fall victims to the IEDs like anyone else.
I think you are worth saving Zoupa. But I've got a bum knee and I'm a terrible shot. It's L shaped couch duty for me, I'm afraid. Someone has to defend it against the Vice President.
lol thanks, and thank you for your service. ^_^
Quote from: Grey Fox on December 20, 2025, 07:17:49 PMHe's right tho. The fascists will come for us in time too. Left leaning Americans won't help us and will hide behind the fact that they didn't vote for them the first and second time.
They'll fall victims to the IEDs like anyone else.
The problem for us is that our names are too french sounding, so we'll be rounded up first :( Maybe they'll follow historical trends and ship us to the swamps of Louisiana though.
Quote from: Zoupa on December 20, 2025, 07:47:13 PMQuote from: Grey Fox on December 20, 2025, 07:17:49 PMHe's right tho. The fascists will come for us in time too. Left leaning Americans won't help us and will hide behind the fact that they didn't vote for them the first and second time.
They'll fall victims to the IEDs like anyone else.
The problem for us is that our names are too french sounding, so we'll be rounded up first :( Maybe they'll follow historical trends and ship us to the swamps of Louisiana though.
The last time Fascism came to Quebec, back in the 1940s, did Duplessis round up French sounding names?
Whoooooosh.
Quote from: Razgovory on December 20, 2025, 08:07:42 PMQuote from: Zoupa on December 20, 2025, 07:47:13 PMQuote from: Grey Fox on December 20, 2025, 07:17:49 PMHe's right tho. The fascists will come for us in time too. Left leaning Americans won't help us and will hide behind the fact that they didn't vote for them the first and second time.
They'll fall victims to the IEDs like anyone else.
The problem for us is that our names are too french sounding, so we'll be rounded up first :( Maybe they'll follow historical trends and ship us to the swamps of Louisiana though.
The last time Fascism came to Quebec, back in the 1940s, did Duplessis round up French sounding names?
No, he wasn't looking to establish a Anglo-Saxon ethnic state.
But he was a fascist, deeply concerned about the possibility of Zionist migration into Quebec.
I also heard that tables usually have 4 legs and that you shouldn't drink milk past its expiration date.
Quote from: Razgovory on December 20, 2025, 09:30:45 PMBut he was a fascist, deeply concerned about the possibility of Zionist migration into Quebec.
We don't call that era of Quebec life La Grande Noirceur because it was a happy fun time.
Quote from: Razgovory on December 20, 2025, 09:30:45 PMBut he was a fascist, deeply concerned about the possibility of Zionist migration into Quebec.
He was a really religious man, working with the Catholic clergy to promote peaceful religious practice.
You would have liked him. Religious tolerance for extremists & all that. :)
Quote from: Grey Fox on December 20, 2025, 11:53:56 PMQuote from: Razgovory on December 20, 2025, 09:30:45 PMBut he was a fascist, deeply concerned about the possibility of Zionist migration into Quebec.
We don't call that era of Quebec life La Grande Noirceur because it was a happy fun time.
Well, we have Éric Duhaime and Pierre Poilièvre working real hard to bring us back to happy fun times.
So anyone placing bets that Venezuela and or Greenland will be invaded by the US by the end of the year?
Quote from: PJL on December 22, 2025, 11:36:39 AMSo anyone placing bets that Venezuela and or Greenland will be invaded by the US by the end of the year?
It probably depends most on when Trump's advisors determine they need to maximize distraction from the Epstein files.
I'm not placing those bets. I would be happy to take them.
Doubt hell invade greenland. Too much entanglement with europe. Venezuela is an option, but don't think hes willing invest the manpower to do it. At most the US will land on some offshore oil rigs or take over a port. Classic pillaging raid. Get some tribute and the promise of future tribute, unfurl a mission accomplished banners and hold a triumph through DC.
I think Greenland is more likely than Venezuela. Not many people to resist in Greenland.
Quote from: Razgovory on December 22, 2025, 12:36:31 PMI think Greenland is more likely than Venezuela. Not many people to resist in Greenland.
If Denmark invokes Article 5, we are in deep shit
Quote from: Tamas on December 22, 2025, 12:41:01 PMQuote from: Razgovory on December 22, 2025, 12:36:31 PMI think Greenland is more likely than Venezuela. Not many people to resist in Greenland.
If Denmark invokes Article 5, we are in deep shit
I didn't say it was good idea.
Looks like we have a new war
QuoteCARACAS, Venezuela (AP) — At least seven explosions and low-flying aircraft were heard around 2 a.m. local time Saturday in Venezuela's capital, Caracas.
It was not immediately clear what was behind the explosions. Venezuela's government, the Pentagon and White House did not immediately respond to requests for comment.
People in various neighborhoods rushed to the streets. Some could be seen in the distance from various areas of Caracas.
"The whole ground shook. This is horrible. We heard explosions and planes in the distance," said Carmen Hidalgo, a 21-year-old office worker, her voice trembling. She was walking briskly with two relatives, returning from a birthday party. "We felt like the air was hitting us."
Venezuelan state television did not interrupt its programming and aired a report on Venezuelan music and art.
The blasts come as the U.S. military has been targeting, in recent days, alleged drug-smuggling boats. On Friday, Venezuela said it was open to negotiating an agreement with the United States to combat drug trafficking.
The South American country's President Nicolás Maduro also said in a pretaped interview aired Thursday that the U.S. wants to force a government change in Venezuela and gain access to its vast oil reserves through the monthslong pressure campaign that began with a massive military deployment to the Caribbean Sea in August.
Maduro can maybe become roommate with Assad in Moscow. :hmm:
Quote from: Legbiter on January 03, 2026, 03:13:03 AMMaduro can maybe become roommate with Assad in Moscow. :hmm:
Well good for fucking him.
Goddamn I am so pissed. Fuck this country.
Once Maduro scurries off and the regime falls then Cuba loses it's petroleum lifeline. :hmm: Rubio must be ecstatic.
Quote from: Valmy on January 03, 2026, 03:17:40 AMQuote from: Legbiter on January 03, 2026, 03:13:03 AMMaduro can maybe become roommate with Assad in Moscow. :hmm:
Well good for fucking him.
Goddamn I am so pissed. Fuck this country.
I mean you guys waited until Christmas and new years was over. That was nice.
If I was being considered for the Nobel Peace price right now, I'd want security guarantees.
Do the strikes weaken Maduro's position though? My guess is that he may well be strengthened, when you are under attack from the USA then plenty of excuses for a poor economy become available. The strikes themselves are mosquito bites of course.
It's interesting that the strikes seem very limited (so far). There are plenty of military assets not hit. Also interesting to have Apaches and Blackhawks flying freely over Caracas. Where are they coming from? Their range is not that great.
Trump claiming to have captured Maduro.
Albeit with wording that completely undermines any legitimacy such a move might claim.
Huh. Interesting times.
Quite a contrast from the VDV being blown to bits at Hostomel in 2022.
Hope Canada and Denmark take appropriate defensive precautions.
We invaded a country to arrest a "threat" and then had to use force to protect the invading troops is... certainly a Trump Administration worthy level of idiocy and awfulness. We're making a real push to head the Axis of Evil.
bafkreidaf5s2yxlugxtgow2efvq75cg4ex4iy5ml6247qrlq5ykn43kvqe.jpg
I am not sure what's the plan, or if there is any plan beyond "kidnap Maduro...???...profit!" but I must admit I am impressed if it's true they have pulled this off.
Yeah, on the purely military aspect it is very impressive.
Yes, this is concerning. US allies should step up their defenses against Delta.
I think it's time for Trudeau to go into hiding. Sure Carney is PM but Trump really hates Trudeau.
I am most worried about Zelensky.
Knowing Trudeau he will be applying blackface disguise as we speak :P
Quote from: Tamas on January 03, 2026, 06:48:03 AMI am most worried about Zelensky.
Fair point. Mine was a joke, but I hadn't considered the real possibility of the world (US) gone mad.
Quote from: Richard Hakluyt on January 03, 2026, 06:48:55 AMKnowing Trudeau he will be applying blackface disguise as we speak :P
Finally after years of practice his one true skill is of use :lol:
Quote from: Tamas on January 03, 2026, 06:31:48 AMI am not sure what's the plan, or if there is any plan beyond "kidnap Maduro...???...profit!" but I must admit I am impressed if it's true they have pulled this off.
I do not understand why they could not have done the bare minimum of preparing the ground by reminding everyone that Maduro was an illegitimate ruler. Instead the lead up was murdering people on boats allegedly transporting drugs...oh and stealing oil.
45 minute Special Military Operation.
What the fuck just happened?
Kidnapped the president of a foreign nation after bombing the capitol. THe MAGA types are hailing it as a bold and decisive move against.... something...
Puppet government loyal to US government business interests in 5, 4, 3 ... ? :unsure: the Nobel prize winning opposition lady said a while ago she would open the country to foreign companies if she was in charge.
Also, how stable is the country? Any risk of it falling into civil war?
Well, I was expecting sites to be bombed, but not a full-blown surgical strike on Maduro. Apparently, it was originally going to be done four days ago, but bad weather prevented it. So I would have been right had it gone as planned, and I had bet on my own prediction.
The lack of response from leaders globally is rather interesting, other for some South American politicians. Where is the response from Russia and China? I guess everyone else is stunned by this as we are.
I hope the Swedish government has planned how they will respond when the US invades Canada. It seems they had no plans for this one.
Quote from: PJL on January 03, 2026, 09:44:22 AMWell, I was expecting sites to be bombed, but not a full-blown surgical strike on Maduro. Apparently, it was originally going to be done four days ago, but bad weather prevented it. So I would have been right had it gone as planned, and I had bet on my own prediction.
The lack of response from leaders globally is rather interesting, other for some South American politicians. Where is the response from Russia and China? I guess everyone else is stunned by this as we are.
https://thehill.com/policy/international/5670812-russia-calls-un-venezuela-security/
QuoteRussia harshly criticizes US attack on Venezuela, capture of Maduro
Russia is offering stark criticism of the U.S. military attack on Venezuela, which resulted in the capture of President Nicolas Maduro.
In response, Russia called for a full meeting of the United Nations Security Council.
"This morning, the United States carried out an act of armed aggression against Venezuela. This causes deep concern and condemnation," Russia said in a statement from its Foreign Ministry.
"The pretexts cited to justify such actions are unfounded. Ideologized hostility has prevailed over practical pragmatism and over a willingness to build relations based on trust and predictability," Russian officials wrote, nearly five years into the nation's own war in Ukraine.
Russia, a key ally of the Maduro regime, said it was crucial to "prevent further escalation and to focus on finding a way out through dialogue."
"We proceed from the understanding that all parties who may have claims against one another should seek solutions through dialogue-based approaches. We are ready to support them in this," the ministry said.
"Latin America must remain a zone of peace, as it declared itself in 2014. Venezuela must be guaranteed the right to determine its own destiny without any destructive, especially military, interference from outside," it wrote. "We reaffirm our solidarity with the Venezuelan people and our support for the course of its Bolivarian leadership aimed at defending the country's national interests and sovereignty."
Russia said its embassy in Caracas, Venezuela's capital city, was operating normally and that it had no information about Russian citizens having been injured.
Attorney General Pam Bondi says Maduro has been charged with "Narco-Terrorism Conspiracy, Cocaine Importation Conspiracy, Possession of Machine guns and Destructive Devices, and Conspiracy to Possess Machineguns and Destructive Devices against the United States".
"They will soon face the full wrath of American justice on American soil in American courts," Bondi added in a post on social platform X.
Maduro had been in power in Venezuela since 2013. The Venezuelan communications ministry said in a statement that he had signed a declaration of emergency urging "all social and political forces" in the country to "activate mobilization plans and repudiate" the attack from the U.S.
The capture of Maduro came just days after the Venezuelan strongman said he was open to conducting negotiations with the U.S. regarding drug trafficking and oil. Maduro and Trump spoke over the phone in November.
The attack will almost certainly heighten tensions between the U.S. and Russia, two parties that have been working to find an end to the Russia-Ukraine war.
It has been taking place for more than a decade after Russia took over the Crimea and then launched a full-scale invasion of Ukraine in February 2022.
Just this week, Trump held a meeting in Mar-a-Lago with Ukraine President Volodymyr Zelensky to discuss a 20-point peace plan. He also spoke on the phone with Russian President Vladimir Putin, who has widely been seen as an obstacle to settling the war.
QuoteTrump says US will be 'very strongly involved' in Venezuela oil industry
The United States is going to be "very strongly involved" in Venezuela's oil industry after the operation to capture Venezuelan leader Nicolás Maduro, President Donald Trump told Fox News on Saturday.
He said:
We have the greatest oil companies in the world, the biggest, the greatest, and we're going to be very much involved in it.
The US invaded a country for oil? :o
Why is it always meme politics?
To put things in a little bit of context, this isn't
crazily dissimilar from Operation Just Cause that removed Manuel Noriega from power.
Some of the similarities:
- Justified based on a U.S. arrest warrant for drug trafficking
- Done without any consultation or approval from the UN or other international bodies
- Done without any authorization by Congress
Now, there are differences:
- Due to the Canal Zone and its garrison, the U.S. had more de facto legitimacy in its involvement in Panamanian affairs
- Noriega was a creation of the CIA, and the Reagan and then Bush Administrations had been in negotiations with him to resign due to the various problems he was causing--again, showing the U.S. was more deeply entangled there vs Venezuela where we did not have any real prior direct association with their internal politics
- Noriega actually (stupidly) declared war on the U.S., and his security forces killed a U.S. Marine in Panama City, the declaration of war from Panama + the killing of our soldier arguably gave us casus belli
A few things about this surprise me. For one, that it was even attempted--since the failed U.S. special forces raid to rescue the Iran hostages under Carter, I think traditional thinking has been special forces raids like this are very high risk--a failure is basically a political nuclear bomb on an administration, making the President look weak--and the worst case scenario would be a failure in which some of the special forces survive the failure but become captives.
This suggests to me we probably had fairly strong intelligence showing Maduro's personal security wasn't that significant, and was open to this sort of thing. Most dictators we have ongoing beefs with typically have multiple approaches to security that make such a raid a bad idea--generally trying to conceal where they stay, regularly moving with decoys, keeping large numbers of soldiers in their direct proximity at all times etc.
Another reason I think this sort of thing isn't really done is because most of the dictatorships we have issues with, simply removing the dictator does very little.
Game out a scenario where we did this to the Ayatollah for example, where does that really leave us? The IRGC is still supreme, a new Ayatollah is named, and it doesn't seem
likely this in any way resolves Iran's various bad behaviors.
Ditto if we had somehow gotten Saddam alone back in 2003-it would have left his sons, the top Ba'ath party officials and his top generals around to continue the same regime.
We already know this regime persists from the death or removal of the dictator--the regime continued on as before when Chavez died and Maduro took over. It's
possible having Maduro puts the U.S. in a position where we may be able to bully various concessions from whichever general or politicians takes over for Maduro, but I question just how much that will be true. Whoever takes over is likely to not put his head out of a bunker and will probably be surrounded by enough guys that another raid like this isn't going to have a high chance of success.
At least Operation Just Because had a cool name.
I agree with pretty much everything Otto said above. And the conclusion: great op, great execution, now what?
That may extend to the criminal trial as well, when we tried Noriega we had cooperation from Panama and the ability to get key regime documents. Not sure what witnesses the US controls or what documentary evidence we have.
Quote from: The Minsky Moment on January 03, 2026, 11:29:38 AMI agree with pretty much everything Otto said above. And the conclusion: great op, great execution, now what?
Trump just said the US is going to run the country for a while. And he's going to send in the US oil companies.
Quote from: Richard Hakluyt on January 03, 2026, 06:48:55 AMKnowing Trudeau he will be applying blackface disguise as we speak :P
:lmfao:
Yes they'll never find me in an ice deportation centre...
Honestly I didn't think Trump had the balls to do something like this.
But he did now, and that's very scary indeed. Dictators always seem to start out as all talk before putting their crazy fantasies into action later in their tenures...
Quote from: garbon on January 03, 2026, 10:15:52 AMQuote from: PJL on January 03, 2026, 09:44:22 AMWell, I was expecting sites to be bombed, but not a full-blown surgical strike on Maduro. Apparently, it was originally going to be done four days ago, but bad weather prevented it. So I would have been right had it gone as planned, and I had bet on my own prediction.
The lack of response from leaders globally is rather interesting, other for some South American politicians. Where is the response from Russia and China? I guess everyone else is stunned by this as we are.
https://thehill.com/policy/international/5670812-russia-calls-un-venezuela-security/
QuoteRussia harshly criticizes US attack on Venezuela, capture of Maduro
Russia is offering stark criticism of the U.S. military attack on Venezuela, which resulted in the capture of President Nicolas Maduro.
Apparently their VP was/is in Russia. And some rumors that the military (or some in the military) was paid off.
Quote from: Tonitrus on January 03, 2026, 12:34:26 PMQuote from: garbon on January 03, 2026, 10:15:52 AMQuote from: PJL on January 03, 2026, 09:44:22 AMWell, I was expecting sites to be bombed, but not a full-blown surgical strike on Maduro. Apparently, it was originally going to be done four days ago, but bad weather prevented it. So I would have been right had it gone as planned, and I had bet on my own prediction.
The lack of response from leaders globally is rather interesting, other for some South American politicians. Where is the response from Russia and China? I guess everyone else is stunned by this as we are.
https://thehill.com/policy/international/5670812-russia-calls-un-venezuela-security/
QuoteRussia harshly criticizes US attack on Venezuela, capture of Maduro
Russia is offering stark criticism of the U.S. military attack on Venezuela, which resulted in the capture of President Nicolas Maduro.
Apparently their VP was/is in Russia. And some rumors that the military (or some in the military) was paid off.
Except the press conference said she has agreed to run the country as US proxy. Who knows what's true. Most likely is that she IS in Russia and Trump and Putin are going to divide up the country.
QuoteFielding a question from a reporter who said he was from Cuba, Trump told him "Cuba is going to be something we'll end up talking about".
"We want to help the people in Cuba, we want to also help the people that were forced out of Cuba.
Secretary of State Marco Rubio interjected that "when the President speaks, you should take him seriously", adding many of the guards who helped protect Maduro were Cuban.
"If I lived in Havana and I was in the government I'd be concerned at least," Rubio added.
The Western hemisphere is going to be one big puppet theatre.
Quote from: Tamas on January 03, 2026, 12:54:24 PMExcept the press conference said she has agreed to run the country as US proxy. Who knows what's true. Most likely is that she IS in Russia and Trump and Putin are going to divide up the country.
You're suggesting the US and Russia reached an agreement on Venezuela, similar to how Putin and Trump have been trying to reach an agreement on Ukraine?
Why would Russia even be in a position to bargain on Venezuela? I think it's more likely this is an (attempted) return to America using Latin America as its backyard.
A foreign power can't run a country with literally no personnel on the ground. The implication is that some deal was been done with the regime to maintain the political status quo in return for getting US oil companies into the country and a more pro-US diplo stance. But in Trumpland its hard to distinguish reality from fantasy
Quote from: Bauer on January 03, 2026, 01:09:24 PMWhy would Russia even be in a position to bargain on Venezuela? I think it's more likely this is an (attempted) return to America using Latin America as its backyard.
Yeah I wasn't very serious about it. But I have a lingering suspicion that all the Greenland nonsense and this gungho stance on Latin America at least in part comes from Putin filling Trump's head with distracting nonsense
Quote from: The Minsky Moment on January 03, 2026, 01:23:11 PMA foreign power can't run a country with literally no personnel on the ground. The implication is that some deal was been done with the regime to maintain the political status quo in return for getting US oil companies into the country and a more pro-US diplo stance. But in Trumpland its hard to distinguish reality from fantasy
Yeah me the big question is to what degree the Trump regime expects to be involved in profiting off Venezuela, how many American resources need to be committed to ensure that profit, and to what degree their local Venezuelan collaborators can keep control of things.
I feel like I have a good sense of the first point (they expect to make billions), but I'm much less clear on the second two points.
Trump and the US get Venezuela, Putin and Russia get Ukraine, and Xi and China get Taiwan. Everyone else gets to complain ineffectually. So it goes.
Quote from: Sophie Scholl on January 03, 2026, 01:55:52 PMTrump and the US get Venezuela, Putin and Russia get Ukraine, and Xi and China get Taiwan. Everyone else gets to complain ineffectually. So it goes.
I guess that must look like a fair deal when you are extremely short-sighted like Trump and his kleptocracy. Who cares what all this ushers in in Europe and the Pacific in 5 years if you can get a few more million dollars to your personal pockets today.
Quote from: Maladict on January 03, 2026, 01:05:01 PMQuoteFielding a question from a reporter who said he was from Cuba, Trump told him "Cuba is going to be something we'll end up talking about".
"We want to help the people in Cuba, we want to also help the people that were forced out of Cuba.
Secretary of State Marco Rubio interjected that "when the President speaks, you should take him seriously", adding many of the guards who helped protect Maduro were Cuban.
"If I lived in Havana and I was in the government I'd be concerned at least," Rubio added.
The Western hemisphere is going to be one big puppet theatre.
As if it wasn't before. :P
Quote from: Bauer on January 03, 2026, 01:09:24 PMWhy would Russia even be in a position to bargain on Venezuela? I think it's more likely this is an (attempted) return to America using Latin America as its backyard.
Trump's just-issued National Security Policy statement has this goal. MAGA wants to withdraw from the Indo-Pacific and NATO and focus on the Monroe Doctrine and overturning democracy in Europe.
Losing Taiwan would be an irreplaceable loss--their chipmaking industry cannot be replicated elsewhere anywhere without a 15-20 year lag time, and China taking control of it would be a massive geostrategic loss for the U.S. that couldn't really be spun any other way.
The Taiwanese chip industry is pretty firmly rigged to self destruct and I believe they are already working to replicate it elsewhere too.
Though yes, would be a disaster.
Quote from: Josquius on January 03, 2026, 04:05:06 PMThe Taiwanese chip industry is pretty firmly rigged to self destruct and I believe they are already working to replicate it elsewhere too.
Though yes, would be a disaster.
I wonder how susceptible to subversion the "rigged to self destruct" set-up is.
Quote from: Tamas on January 03, 2026, 12:54:24 PMExcept the press conference said she has agreed to run the country as US proxy. Who knows what's true. Most likely is that she IS in Russia and Trump and Putin are going to divide up the country.
AP says the vice president said on TV that she doesn't intend to take over since there's only one president, i.e. Maduro, and demanded his return. TV seems to show pro-Maduro content. There's reports of pro and anti Maduro protests.
So as of yet unclear how US intends to "run the country" for the moment.
Yeah, the VP's comments put to rest the theory that she was in on this. It's still possible someone in the military broke and gave intel / helped facilitate Maduro being lightly defended. But unlikely there's going to be some quick Venezuelan capitulation to U.S. demands, which largely puts us back to where were before.
Trump could simply consider the arrest of Maduro his "win" and move on, but if he doesn't--there's not really an off ramp where he won't lose face if he keeps making demands and the VP / new government continue to defy him.
Quote from: grumbler on January 03, 2026, 03:27:25 PMQuote from: Bauer on January 03, 2026, 01:09:24 PMWhy would Russia even be in a position to bargain on Venezuela? I think it's more likely this is an (attempted) return to America using Latin America as its backyard.
Trump's just-issued National Security Policy statement has this goal. MAGA wants to withdraw from the Indo-Pacific and NATO and focus on the Monroe Doctrine and overturning democracy in Europe.
That sounds like confirmation of what people have been saying about Trumps world view. A return to a regional sphere of influence world. Russia over Ukraine? China over Taiwan?
Quote from: mongers on December 17, 2025, 10:36:40 PMI think there's a significant chance trump will do this, try to topple Maduro.
My reasoning is, trumps in love with all things 1980s, when he felt he was in his prime, so he's deluded enough to think he can go one better than G.H.W.Bush and repeat an operation like the 1989 Panama invasion.
Incidentally the 36th anniversary of which is in about 48 hours time. :hmm:
Well I was little bit off on the timing, but as Otto also mentioned it's useful to compare this adventure to Panama.
I guess there hasn't been much 'post-conflict' planning and they're just assuming a compliant state government will just appear in a similar way to Panama.
To me, this feels less like regime change and more like an extortion racket.
Quote from: PJL on January 03, 2026, 06:02:54 PMTo me, this feels less like regime change and more like an extortion racket.
But if you're going to extort someone don't they have to stay in power to provide the loot?
Quote from: HVC on January 03, 2026, 06:03:37 PMQuote from: PJL on January 03, 2026, 06:02:54 PMTo me, this feels less like regime change and more like an extortion racket.
But if you're going to extort someone don't they have to stay in power to provide the loot?
They need to punish someone once in a while to prove their point that they're more than just barking regarding punishment.
It would be macabrely funny if this ends up with another grand jury refusing to indict.
My initial thought was that this showed the world that the US can pull off a special operation regime change while Russia cannot.
... but if the US fails to enact an actual regime change then it might turn from a demonstration of power into an embarrassment after all.
Who are the local Venezuelan collaborators who will deliver the oil wealth to US firms?
Who on the US side have the expertise and plan to enact a post-Maduro order that aligns with US interests? The State Dep't? The CIA? The Office of the President? The US Armed Forces? Elon Musk?
There may be people waiting in the wings, and I'm sure there's no shortage of anti-regime emigrants, but can they actually make things happen?
It's still early days if course. We will see.
Quote from: OttoVonBismarck on January 03, 2026, 03:58:18 PMLosing Taiwan would be an irreplaceable loss--their chipmaking industry cannot be replicated elsewhere anywhere without a 15-20 year lag time, and China taking control of it would be a massive geostrategic loss for the U.S. that couldn't really be spun any other way.
We may see it that way, but the MAGAts do not. They think they can buy chips from China as easily as from Taiwan.
Quote from: Jacob on January 03, 2026, 07:17:59 PMMy initial thought was that this showed the world that the US can pull off a special operation regime change while Russia cannot.
... but if the US fails to enact an actual regime change then it might turn from a demonstration of power into an embarrassment after all.
It's a combination of extraordinary professionalism and capability at the operational and tactical level and complete amateur hour on the strategic level.
It's starting to look like no one really gave serious thought about what happens after the operation, assuming total success. Hard to imagine that could be possible but increasingly difficult to understand otherwise. And perhaps not hard to imagine given the cast assembled at today's press conference: Hegseth, Rubio, Ratcliffe, Miller.
Unlike in Trump 1, Trump 2 has made sure none who would ever speak negative about any Trumpian idea are anywhere near the seat of power. This idea would have been proposed, and no dissent or even "what about" would have occurred. In Trump 1 you would have at least had guys like Gen. McMaster saying "okay so what do we do once we get Maduro back and his Generals and his political allies still maintain all of the same policies?"
It is more government by Tweet mentality which dominates how Trump functions and, I suspect, how his mind truly works at an innate level.
Quote from: The Minsky Moment on January 03, 2026, 09:00:10 PMIt's starting to look like no one really gave serious thought about what happens after the operation, assuming total success. Hard to imagine that could be possible but increasingly difficult to understand otherwise. And perhaps not hard to imagine given the cast assembled at today's press conference: Hegseth, Rubio, Ratcliffe, Miller.
I don't know. It is kind of expected these days. I assumed that GWB had some secret knowledge that made his seemingly nonsensical pronouncements leading up to the Iraq war make sense, or he had some secret strategy. But nope, his plans really were just wishcasting and muddling through.
Quote from: The Minsky Moment on January 03, 2026, 09:00:10 PMQuote from: Jacob on January 03, 2026, 07:17:59 PMMy initial thought was that this showed the world that the US can pull off a special operation regime change while Russia cannot.
... but if the US fails to enact an actual regime change then it might turn from a demonstration of power into an embarrassment after all.
It's a combination of extraordinary professionalism and capability at the operational and tactical level and complete amateur hour on the strategic level.
It's starting to look like no one really gave serious thought about what happens after the operation, assuming total success. Hard to imagine that could be possible but increasingly difficult to understand otherwise. And perhaps not hard to imagine given the cast assembled at today's press conference: Hegseth, Rubio, Ratcliffe, Miller.
I can just imagine Lt. Hegseth sitting in Iraq pondering, "Maybe the military actually put
too much thought into this."
Quote from: Jacob on January 03, 2026, 07:17:59 PMMy initial thought was that this showed the world that the US can pull off a special operation regime change while Russia cannot.
... but if the US fails to enact an actual regime change then it might turn from a demonstration of power into an embarrassment after all.
Who are the local Venezuelan collaborators who will deliver the oil wealth to US firms?
Who on the US side have the expertise and plan to enact a post-Maduro order that aligns with US interests? The State Dep't? The CIA? The Office of the President? The US Armed Forces? Elon Musk?
There may be people waiting in the wings, and I'm sure there's no shortage of anti-regime emigrants, but can they actually make things happen?
It's still early days if course. We will see.
I presume they were banking on the Nobel "Peace" Prize winner, María Corina Machado, delivering everything to them after she was installed by popular acclaim as the new dictat... "President" with Maduro gone. Which, I guess, is at least a change of pace from the numerous attempts to set up Juan Guaidó as the US puppet during years past. Machado already laid out plans on how to divide up the country's oil and bring back the US corporations in a manifesto if memory serves.
Quote from: Sophie Scholl on January 03, 2026, 11:46:23 PMQuote from: Jacob on January 03, 2026, 07:17:59 PMMy initial thought was that this showed the world that the US can pull off a special operation regime change while Russia cannot.
... but if the US fails to enact an actual regime change then it might turn from a demonstration of power into an embarrassment after all.
Who are the local Venezuelan collaborators who will deliver the oil wealth to US firms?
Who on the US side have the expertise and plan to enact a post-Maduro order that aligns with US interests? The State Dep't? The CIA? The Office of the President? The US Armed Forces? Elon Musk?
There may be people waiting in the wings, and I'm sure there's no shortage of anti-regime emigrants, but can they actually make things happen?
It's still early days if course. We will see.
I presume they were banking on the Nobel "Peace" Prize winner, María Corina Machado, delivering everything to them after she was installed by popular acclaim as the new dictat... "President" with Maduro gone. Which, I guess, is at least a change of pace from the numerous attempts to set up Juan Guaidó as the US puppet during years past. Machado already laid out plans on how to divide up the country's oil and bring back the US corporations in a manifesto if memory serves.
That's not what they are saying, at least publicly.
https://thehill.com/homenews/administration/5671488-trump-machado-venezuela-opposition-leader/
QuoteTrump says Machado 'doesn't have the support' in Venezuela, wasn't consulted
President Trump on Saturday said Venezuelan opposition leader María Corina Machado "doesn't have the support" within Venezuela to be its next leader after U.S. troops captured Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro, and said she was not consulted prior to the operation.
"I think it would be very tough for her to be the leader," Trump said at a press conference from his Mar-a-Lago resort hours after the attack. "She doesn't have the support within or the respect within the country."
Trump said the administration did not talk to Machado about the attack and possibility of leading Venezuela. He leaned on Venezuelan Vice President Delcy Rodríguez as Maduro's successor, who he claimed was sworn in as the country's president. Trump said he would work with her as the U.S. will "run" Venezuela until there is a peaceful transfer of power.
"I just had a conversation with her, and she's essentially willing to do what she thinks is necessary to make Venezuela great again," Trump said. "Very simple."
Rodríguez later dismissed Trump's remarks, saying in a televised speech that Maduro is the country's "only president."
Machado said the "hour of freedom has arrived" in the hours following Maduro's capture.
"Today we are ready to enforce our mandate and take power," Machado said in a letter shared on the social platform X, translated by Le Monde. "Let us remain vigilant, active and organized until the Democratic Transition is realized. A transition that needs ALL of us."
Machado placed her support behind opposition leader Edmundo González Urrutia, whom Maduro defeated in Venezuela's elections in 2024 amid allegations of widespread voter fraud. She said Urrutia must be "recognized as Commander in Chief of the National Armed Forces by all officers and soldiers."
...
Well huh. It appears whatever "plan" they had has already fallen apart if they were banking on the VP then, as per Trump's comments. Wild. The coup attempt has possibly buckled in under a day. Great job, America! :rolleyes:
When Soviet invasion of Afghanistan started, their special ops forces quickly assassinated their president. In hindsight, that initial victory for the Soviets has been watered down somewhat by future events.
Quote from: DGuller on January 03, 2026, 11:56:48 PMWhen Soviet invasion of Afghanistan started, their special ops forces quickly assassinated their president. In hindsight, that initial victory for the Soviets has been watered down somewhat by future events.
Indeed, "Mission Accomplished" as they say.
It's a tired metaphor, but this feels a bit like the dog finally catching the car. "And now what?"
Venezuelan VP is now named acting president and is calling on Venezuelans to resist the US. This is going well.
Maybe the plan was to get Machado in after all? Even though she stole the Nobel Prize from Trump?
I have a hard time believing they really didn't plan beyond the kidnapping and taking some oil. But it might just be true.
I guess they were hoping that the Venezuelan government would just collapse or become compliant by this show of force? At least Hegseth gets to masturbate furiously over the prowess of his manly warfighters.
It's amazing how low the regime corruption goes.
https://www.axios.com/2026/01/03/maduro-capture-bets-trade-prediction-markets
Interim-President of Venezuela is blaming "Zionists" for the attack.
Well now they've done it. Time to level Caracas.
Quote from: Razgovory on January 04, 2026, 05:47:53 AMInterim-President of Venezuela is blaming "Zionists" for the attack.
I think she has a point, if it is viewed as another variant of the military-industrial complex, corporatist government, tech bros terms banded about for this sort of thing.
Trump's supporters are all over the place. On one hand Maruro was a drug kingpin and we needed to get rid of him over that. On the other, the oil is the important part because oil. Their approval comes down to: Trump said its good.
So, US oil companies are going to be heavily involved? How? PMCs going to be controlling the territory?
A new age of Filibustering? https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Filibuster_(military)
Quote from: Darth Wagtaros on January 04, 2026, 06:52:18 AMTrump's supporters are all over the place. On one hand Maruro was a drug kingpin and we needed to get rid of him over that. On the other, the oil is the important part because oil. Their approval comes down to: Trump said its good.
So, US oil companies are going to be heavily involved? How? PMCs going to be controlling the territory?
Dronewarfare might make that difficult
Much like Iraq war II - now what?
I assume there are many in the American institutions responsible for military strategic thinking who learned that lesson, but I doubt very much any of them are informing the decision makers in the current administration.
Quote from: Richard Hakluyt on January 04, 2026, 01:34:38 AMIndeed, "Mission Accomplished" as they say.
This would just be another Monroe Doctrine episode for me much like Panama and Noriega was, that is an understandable bit of gunboat diplomacy, kick out Chinese and Russian influence, based as the kids say in the way in how it was effortlessly carried out, really. Except Trump has stated territorial ambitions on Greenland. This is such a prime example of shitting on an ally that has fought and bled with the US that it concentrates the mind. :hmm:
The old regime in Venezuela is finished because nobody (except the Cuban bodyguard around Maduro) lifted a finger to save it and it's not going to host any Chinese weapons systems anytime soon. It will consume all available bandwith the US has wrt to foreign policy so at least the demands on Ukraine to surrender should evaporate.
Quote from: PJL on January 04, 2026, 06:05:01 AMQuote from: Razgovory on January 04, 2026, 05:47:53 AMInterim-President of Venezuela is blaming "Zionists" for the attack.
I think she has a point, if it is viewed as another variant of the military-industrial complex, corporatist government, tech bros terms banded about for this sort of thing.
It still surprises me that people try to rationalize this sort of rhetoric.
Quote from: Razgovory on January 04, 2026, 05:47:53 AMInterim-President of Venezuela is blaming "Zionists" for the attack.
Guess we need to do more regime change.
Quote from: Razgovory on January 05, 2026, 07:47:54 AMQuote from: PJL on January 04, 2026, 06:05:01 AMQuote from: Razgovory on January 04, 2026, 05:47:53 AMInterim-President of Venezuela is blaming "Zionists" for the attack.
I think she has a point, if it is viewed as another variant of the military-industrial complex, corporatist government, tech bros terms banded about for this sort of thing.
It still surprises me that people try to rationalize this sort of rhetoric.
Around a millenia of the Jews being the root of all problems is a deep tradition that won't be easy to get rid of, especially since it's even more prevalent in Muslim cultures.
Trump notified the oil companies of the plans before the attack, and Congress afterward. Says it all, really.
They gave him money for his re-election, he gave them privileged information for insider trading. Probably a fair quid pro quo in the Trumpian swamp.
Quote from: Maladict on January 05, 2026, 09:50:38 AMTrump notified the oil companies of the plans before the attack, and Congress afterward. Says it all, really.
Congress is irrelevant and powerless, unlike the oil companies.
Quote from: Tamas on January 05, 2026, 09:46:42 AMQuote from: Razgovory on January 05, 2026, 07:47:54 AMQuote from: PJL on January 04, 2026, 06:05:01 AMQuote from: Razgovory on January 04, 2026, 05:47:53 AMInterim-President of Venezuela is blaming "Zionists" for the attack.
I think she has a point, if it is viewed as another variant of the military-industrial complex, corporatist government, tech bros terms banded about for this sort of thing.
It still surprises me that people try to rationalize this sort of rhetoric.
Around a millenia of the Jews being the root of all problems is a deep tradition that won't be easy to get rid of, especially since it's even more prevalent in Muslim cultures.
I really thought we were past that. The world just gets worse and worse it seems.
So, I saw that the judge on the Maduro case is 92 years old.
Is it forbidden in the US to retire if you hold an office?
Half of the US Senate is above retirement age. It's a gerontocracy.
Quote from: celedhring on January 06, 2026, 05:17:32 AMSo, I saw that the judge on the Maduro case is 92 years old.
Is it forbidden in the US to retire if you hold an office?
WTF :lol:
He has a long career in the Senate ahead of him. :)
There is a lot of evidence of cognitive decline after the age of 75. I am not sure if it is a coincidence, but that is the age Canadian judges must retire.
Quote from: Zanza on January 06, 2026, 09:04:14 AMHalf of the US Senate is above retirement age. It's a gerontocracy.
Etymogically, Senate comes from senatus (council of elders) itself of senex i.e (old) man, as in elder. So WAD.
As for the Trump régime, it is best described as a plutocracy, with him notifying oil companies before the Congress.
Quote from: celedhring on January 06, 2026, 05:17:32 AMSo, I saw that the judge on the Maduro case is 92 years old.
Is it forbidden in the US to retire if you hold an office?
No. But federal judge appointments are for life and judges can be removed only by voluntary retirement, impeachment or death.
The laws setting up the federal court system allow judges to assume "senior status" when they reach a certain age. Senior status judges can maintain a much-reduced case load, but they maintain their full salary, with COLA adjustment, an office, and a complement of law clerks and staff. So it is a very attractive option.
Moreover, because busy districts like SDNY are chronically understaffed, they rely on their complement of senior status judges to keep up with workload.
I had a case in front of Judge Hellerstein in 2008-2010. Around the same time he was still handling a lot of the 9-11 related litigation. He was very much on the ball. Of course there is a difference between mid-70s and 92.
https://x.com/StateDept/status/2008221563888292207
(https://i.ibb.co/MDDdsht2/FF5-B3-F81-D78-C-4-DB2-93-A4-6-F9125-C45-D86.png)
https://www.whitehouse.gov/articles/2026/01/rubio-this-is-our-hemisphere-and-president-trump-will-not-allow-our-security-to-be-threatened/
QuoteThis morning, Secretary of State Marco Rubio joined multiple news programs to discuss the Trump Administration's decisive operation that successfully apprehended indicted narcoterrorist and illegitimate former Venezuelan dictator Nicolás Maduro. Secretary Rubio underscored President Donald J. Trump's ironclad commitment to preventing the Western Hemisphere from becoming a safe haven for drug traffickers, Iranian proxies, or hostile regimes that endanger our national security — declaring the days of weakness are over and the U.S. will deploy every tool to eradicate these threats from our backyard.
- "There's not a war. We are at war against drug trafficking organizations — not a war against Venezuela." (Watch)
- "We don't have U.S. forces on the ground in Venezuela. They were on the ground for about two hours when they went to capture Maduro... What the President is saying is very simple — and that is as President of the United States, he is not going to go around telling people what he's not going to do." (Watch)
- "This is the Western Hemisphere. This is where we live — and we're not going to allow the Western Hemisphere to be a base of operation for adversaries, competitors, and rivals of the United States." (Watch)
- "The first steps are securing what's in the national interest of the United States and also beneficial to the people of Venezuela, and those are the things that we're focused on right now. No more drug trafficking. No more Iran, Hezbollah presence there. No more using the oil industry to enrich all our adversaries around the world." (Watch)
- "This was not an action that required congressional approval. In fact, it couldn't require congressional approval because this was not an invasion. This is not an extended military operation... We will seek congressional approval for actions that require congressional approval. Otherwise, they'll get congressional notification." (Watch)
- "The whole foreign policy apparatus thinks everything is Libya, everything is Iraq, everything is Afghanistan. This is not the Middle East, and our mission here is very different. This is the Western Hemisphere." (Watch)
- "The most immediate changes are the ones that are in the national interests of the United States. That's why we're involved here — because of how it applies and has a direct impact on the United States." (Watch)
- "We've seen how our adversaries all over the world are exploiting and extracting resources from Africa, from every other country. They're not going to do it in the Western Hemisphere. That is not going to happen under President Trump. Read our national security strategy. He is serious about it." (Watch)
- "What we are going to react to is very simple: what do you do? Not what you're saying publicly, what happens... Do the drugs stop coming? Are the changes made? Is Iran expelled? Is Hezbollah and Iran no longer able to operate against our interests from Venezuela?" (Watch)
- "It's running policy — the policy with regards to this. We want Venezuela to move in a certain direction because not only do we think it's good for the people of Venezuela, it's in our national interest." (Watch)
- "We retain all the options we had before this raid and this capture and this arrest... until such time as changes are made." (Watch)
- "In the Biden Administration, they had a $25 million reward for [Maduro's] capture — so we have a reward for his capture but we're not going to enforce it? That's the difference between President Trump and everybody else... President Trump did something about it." (Watch)
- "Until they address [the problems], they will continue to face this oil quarantine. They will continue to face pressure from the United States. We will continue to target drug boats if they try to run towards the United States. We will continue to seize the boats that are sanctioned with court orders. We will continue to do that and potentially other things until the things we need to see addressed are addressed... The number one thing we care about is the safety, security, wellbeing, and prosperity of the United States." (Watch)
- "Maduro is not just an indicted drug trafficker; he was an illegitimate president. He was not the head of state. I continue to see these media reports referring to him as 'President Maduro' and the 'head of state.' He was not the head of state." (Watch)
Posts by the US government need to be accompanied by more 'Sieg Heils' to make it really snazzy.
In all caps of course
Quote from: Tamas on January 06, 2026, 09:53:45 AMQuote from: celedhring on January 06, 2026, 05:17:32 AMSo, I saw that the judge on the Maduro case is 92 years old.
Is it forbidden in the US to retire if you hold an office?
WTF :lol:
He is still paying off his student loans.
I would like to know what are government is actually planning to do with Venezuela.
Quote from: Razgovory on January 06, 2026, 01:00:34 PMI would like to know what are government is actually planning to do with Venezuela.
From what Syt posted above:
Quote"What we are going to react to is very simple: what do you do? Not what you're saying publicly, what happens... Do the drugs stop coming? Are the changes made? Is Iran expelled? Is Hezbollah and Iran no longer able to operate against our interests from Venezuela?" (Watch)
"It's running policy — the policy with regards to this. We want Venezuela to move in a certain direction because not only do we think it's good for the people of Venezuela, it's in our national interest."
... it sounds like "nothing". The US doesn't in fact have Venezuela, so they (you) are not going to do anything with it.
It sounds to me like they expected Venezuela to suddenly take direction from the US because Maduro was abducted. And, I suppose, they'll potentially take other similar (non-Congressional-approval-requiring) short limited actions to look strong and attempt to intimidate Venezuela's leadership if the leadership doesn't improve in that "certain direction".
Which I expect Venezuela won't.
Maybe they'll abduct the VP next?
Over the next year the US will abduct every Venezuelan, before panicking over the massive immigration from South America and deporting all of them back to Venezuela to start the process over again.
Quote from: Crazy_Ivan80 on January 06, 2026, 12:27:37 PMPosts by the US government need to be accompanied by more 'Sieg Heils' to make it really snazzy.
In all caps of course
I feel the proper comparison is Wilhelm II, not the Nazis. This is old school imperialism, not genocidal warfare for Lebensraum.
Quote from: PRC on January 06, 2026, 12:52:25 PMQuote from: Tamas on January 06, 2026, 09:53:45 AMQuote from: celedhring on January 06, 2026, 05:17:32 AMSo, I saw that the judge on the Maduro case is 92 years old.
Is it forbidden in the US to retire if you hold an office?
WTF :lol:
He is still paying off his student loans.
:lol:
Or maybe his 2nd and 3rd wives.
Quote from: Razgovory on January 06, 2026, 01:00:34 PMI would like to know what are government is actually planning to do with Venezuela.
Who knows?
I'd say that I have read about quite a lot of contacts between the US and both the Venezuelan VP but also others in the regime. I wouldn't dismiss that at this stage - I think it's too soon to tell if there's soemthing there or not - any change of position from within the regime will take time politically, need to be managed etc. I suspect an early sign in the next few months might be if the new Venezuelan readers keep the Cuban security detail or not. I think the first sign to moving towards basically falling into "line" with the US would be removing the men with guns around you provided by a regime absolutely hostile to that.
My understanding is that of the 40 killed in Venezuela, 32 were Cuban security for Maduro.
Quote from: Zanza on January 06, 2026, 01:40:53 PMI feel the proper comparison is Wilhelm II, not the Nazis. This is old school imperialism, not genocidal warfare for Lebensraum.
Leopold II may be a better fit. Fits the personal enrichment and corporate cronyism aspects better.
So far, vis-a-vis Venezuela, it is just glorified gunboat diplomacy.
Quote from: Sheilbh on January 06, 2026, 02:31:36 PMI'd say that I have read about quite a lot of contacts between the US and both the Venezuelan VP but also others in the regime. I wouldn't dismiss that at this stage - I think it's too soon to tell if there's soemthing there or not - any change of position from within the regime will take time politically, need to be managed etc. I suspect an early sign in the next few months might be if the new Venezuelan readers keep the Cuban security detail or not. I think the first sign to moving towards basically falling into "line" with the US would be removing the men with guns around you provided by a regime absolutely hostile to that.
My understanding is that of the 40 killed in Venezuela, 32 were Cuban security for Maduro.
Ah... so you think, potentially, that the VP's statements about "Maduro still being the president" may be about managing the transition adroitly rather than rejecting Turmp's terms?
That could very well be true, but I feel like Trump is going to randomly let the cat out of the bag relatively soon if that's the case.
We basically allow the heads of criminal gangs to run their operations from prison. No reason Maduro couldn't do the same. :P
Quote from: Jacob on January 06, 2026, 04:21:19 PMAh... so you think, potentially, that the VP's statements about "Maduro still being the president" may be about managing the transition adroitly rather than rejecting Turmp's terms?
That could very well be true, but I feel like Trump is going to randomly let the cat out of the bag relatively soon if that's the case.
Yeah. Basically I think there are two countries involved with their own politics and elites etc to manage.
Even if the US have been cultivating people within the regime (which it sounds like they have), that won't be an overnight change. Especially not if the people with guns in the presidential palace are being provided by a hostile state and have just lost 30 comrades.
In terms of what next I think it's very unlikely we'll see US troops on the ground. Which I think means probably operating within the current regime. If that's the case then I think it could be anything from basically an internal power-player leveraging US anger against Maduro to grab him (while also giving them a fantastic bloody shirt to wave), in which case the US got played, to a transition to a still corrupt, still autocratic regime open to US business. If there are forces in the regime basically willing to align more with what rump wants then I think there'll be a lot of internal forces to neutralise/align, get your own people in place (especially in security positions) etc.
I think it's too soon to tell but in terms of the "what next" the stories about a lot of very high level contacts with the regime and a general lack of interest in the opposition, I think that's at least the US strategy.
Quote from: frunk on January 06, 2026, 01:29:43 PMOver the next year the US will abduct every Venezuelan, before panicking over the massive immigration from South America and deporting all of them back to Venezuela to start the process over again.
:lol:
Quote from: Jacob on January 06, 2026, 01:18:59 PMQuote from: Razgovory on January 06, 2026, 01:00:34 PMI would like to know what are government is actually planning to do with Venezuela.
From what Syt posted above:
Quote"What we are going to react to is very simple: what do you do? Not what you're saying publicly, what happens... Do the drugs stop coming? Are the changes made? Is Iran expelled? Is Hezbollah and Iran no longer able to operate against our interests from Venezuela?" (Watch)
"It's running policy — the policy with regards to this. We want Venezuela to move in a certain direction because not only do we think it's good for the people of Venezuela, it's in our national interest."
... it sounds like "nothing". The US doesn't in fact have Venezuela, so they (you) are not going to do anything with it.
It sounds to me like they expected Venezuela to suddenly take direction from the US because Maduro was abducted. And, I suppose, they'll potentially take other similar (non-Congressional-approval-requiring) short limited actions to look strong and attempt to intimidate Venezuela's leadership if the leadership doesn't improve in that "certain direction".
Which I expect Venezuela won't.
Maybe they'll abduct the VP next?
Yeah, I read all that. We don't even have the concept of a plan. It's just rambling nonsense. It's like rule by meme. I don't care that much about Venezuela, but I really prefer the US doesn't try to occupy the country. I'm not that enthused with the "take their oil" idea that Trump is talking about.
Some Democrats want to defend Maduro, but I'm not one of them. I would have preferred if we just continued ignoring Venezuela, like we have done for the last two decades. They didn't seem to be much of a threat. Still, I'm not going to complain too much that the guy was captured. Unless the country falls into civil war or the US invades. Then I will complain quite a bit.
I haven't heard of any Dems defending Maduro.
Quote from: Razgovory on January 06, 2026, 08:47:53 PMYeah, I read all that. We don't even have the concept of a plan. It's just rambling nonsense. It's like rule by meme. I don't care that much about Venezuela, but I really prefer the US doesn't try to occupy the country. I'm not that enthused with the "take their oil" idea that Trump is talking about.
Some Democrats want to defend Maduro, but I'm not one of them. I would have preferred if we just continued ignoring Venezuela, like we have done for the last two decades. They didn't seem to be much of a threat. Still, I'm not going to complain too much that the guy was captured. Unless the country falls into civil war or the US invades. Then I will complain quite a bit.
I guess I am not clear how important Maduro even is. This isn't like taking out Hugo Chavez, It is possible Maduro was just the dude at the top of an establish regime that has been in power for decades now. He seems to me to be easily replaceable. But I could be wrong, maybe he was this charismatic leader and without him the whole thing collapses. I don't know for sure.
The thing to complain about is just going into another country and capturing their President. Not that this asshole was worth defending. And, of course, now if some disaster occurs because of this it is now our fault.
Of course we also have to have some kind of legal basis of putting him on trial and finding him guilty of a crime.
(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/G-BMAetXwAEJdH7?format=jpg&name=large)
(https://media1.tenor.com/m/Y3cAUoE4wBwAAAAC/%D0%B4%D0%B6%D0%BE%D0%BD%D0%B0-%D1%85%D0%B8%D0%BB%D0%BB-jonah-hill.gif)
Is that something that's happening? Venezuela is shipping oil to the US now without getting paid?
Venezuela doesn't have any high-quality oil. It is the lowest-grade crude sold and is expensive to refine.
Having said that, the US has the only large refinery capacity that can process this oil, and has traditionally been the only real market for the stuff.
Quote from: Jacob on January 07, 2026, 01:05:02 AMIs that something that's happening? Venezuela is shipping oil to the US now without getting paid?
I don't expect any of that to happen.
The oil price has fallen by about 20% in the past year (in dollar terms, the dollar has also fallen) and there are fears of an oil glut. I don't think that the oil companies would want lots of Venezuelan oil entering the market right now, it would damage their profits.
Quote from: Richard Hakluyt on January 07, 2026, 02:54:15 AMThe oil price has fallen by about 20% in the past year (in dollar terms, the dollar has also fallen) and there are fears of an oil glut. I don't think that the oil companies would want lots of Venezuelan oil entering the market right now, it would damage their profits.
I guess the only flipside of all this, if any of Trump's so-called plan would ever happen, is that tanking the price of oil would hurt Putin.
Quote from: Tamas on January 07, 2026, 03:38:07 AMQuote from: Richard Hakluyt on January 07, 2026, 02:54:15 AMThe oil price has fallen by about 20% in the past year (in dollar terms, the dollar has also fallen) and there are fears of an oil glut. I don't think that the oil companies would want lots of Venezuelan oil entering the market right now, it would damage their profits.
I guess the only flipside of all this, if any of Trump's so-called plan would ever happen, is that tanking the price of oil would hurt Putin.
It's the take of Peter Thiel's lickspittle Sebastian Kurz at least.
(https://i.ibb.co/rRZ6NDWf/AISelect-20260107-103427-Chrome.jpg)
Quote from: Tonitrus on January 06, 2026, 04:37:40 PMWe basically allow the heads of criminal gangs to run their operations from prison. No reason Maduro couldn't do the same. :P
You also allow heads of criminal gangs to run their operations from Mar-a-Lago. :P
So that's 4-7 million tonnes of crude oil, say they can get hold of a bunch of tankers averaging 250,000 tonnes, that's upto 28 tanker loads, how many days would it take for southern US refineries to process that?
Not even sure which one of the crisis threads to put this in but apparently the Russian said oil tanker which earlier fled boarding near Venezuela by sporting a Russian flag and had been expecting Russian Navy escorts back to Murmansk, is being boarded by US forces
Quote from: Tamas on January 07, 2026, 08:26:56 AMNot even sure which one of the crisis threads to put this in but apparently the Russian said oil tanker which earlier fled boarding near Venezuela by sporting a Russian flag and had been expecting Russian Navy escorts back to Murmansk, is being boarded by US forces
Probably trying to preempt issues with the sub the orcs may or may not have sent out escort the ship.
Who knows anymore in this ever dumber than dumbest timelines
It's like we never learn. Remember once upon a time when America invaded and Iraq and said the oil would pay for the cost many times over? And it took nearly a decade for Iraqi oil production to reach pre-conflict levels?
It will take YEARS to fix up the problems with the Venezuelan oil industry. It will take enormous amounts of investment and years for that investment to yield results. Will that investment happen? Here are some obstacles:
1) Uncertain political and legal environment. These investments have payoff periods measured in decades.
2) Weak demand/supply conditions in present market environment. E.g. last year demand increased 900K barrels per day but supply by 4 million.
3) Venezuelan oil tends to be poor quality heavy grades that is more costly to refine. Yes it is true that many of the Gulf Coast refineries are currently set up to process these grades. But US refineries are already running close to full capacity, so the refineries would have to be expanded as well. In loose supply conditions when price is falling (as now) that product is the first to become uneconomic.
4) The background trend worldwide is a shift to renewables, which have a more favorable output/cost ratio already which continues to improve. Although the Stupid Squad around Trump pretends not to know this, the oil majors definitely do. They will be wary that billions thrown on developing dirty and expensive to process reserves could end up as uneconomic stranded assets.
In any case, I am just glad that a Russian flag is not a get out of jail for free card with this administration, otherwise sanctions against either Venezuela or Russia would have been rendered toothless.
QuoteDespite her public praise of him, the US president has not met Machado and has rarely spoken about her or mentioned fresh elections in Venezuela. Instead he has stressed the need to open up the oil industry and to crack down on drug trafficking.
Some influential US investors in Venezuelan debt and oil industry players also want to see Machado kept out of any Trump plan for the South American nation, viewing her as too radical. They prefer what they see as the safer option of working with Rodríguez to make quick profits and have lobbied in Washington for this option.
"The US wants results, not people who talk," said one person involved in dealmaking with the Venezuelan government. "Can María Corina deliver? No, she can't."
This is American foreign policy. A corrupt corporatist clusterfuck. Why did Trump wipe out the relative pennies given out by USAID but then give a massive aid package to Argentina? Because his hedge fund buddies were taking terrible losses on their investments in the Milei fiasco but they have no investments in sub-Saharan Africa. Why play footsie with the Russians and China? So that NVIDIA can sell chips and US multinationals can do business in Moscow. Why the strong tilt to the Saudis and Gulf States? The answer is obvious and has little to do with geopolitics or US national interests.
Quote from: The Minsky Moment on January 07, 2026, 11:22:33 AMThis is American foreign policy. A corrupt corporatist clusterfuck. Why did Trump wipe out the relative pennies given out by USAID but then give a massive aid package to Argentina? Because his hedge fund buddies were taking terrible losses on their investments in the Milei fiasco but they have no investments in sub-Saharan Africa. Why play footsie with the Russians and China? So that NVIDIA can sell chips and US multinationals can do business in Moscow. Why the strong tilt to the Saudis and Gulf States? The answer is obvious and has little to do with geopolitics or US national interests.
Then let's hope these corporate interests can dissuade him from attacking Canada or Greenland. That must be bad for business.
Denmark doesn't have enough fat US contracts or enough US based bondholders to matter to Trump. They are vulnerable.
Quote from: The Minsky Moment on January 07, 2026, 11:48:18 AMDenmark doesn't have enough fat US contracts or enough US based bondholders to matter to Trump. They are vulnerable.
That might explain why the UK govt did that big deal with Palantir then a few weeks ago.
Quote from: PJL on January 07, 2026, 11:55:02 AMThat might explain why the UK govt did that big deal with Palantir then a few weeks ago.
Yep, made that point in the UK thread.
Quote from: The Minsky Moment on January 06, 2026, 10:59:59 AMQuote from: celedhring on January 06, 2026, 05:17:32 AMSo, I saw that the judge on the Maduro case is 92 years old.
Is it forbidden in the US to retire if you hold an office?
No. But federal judge appointments are for life and judges can be removed only by voluntary retirement, impeachment or death.
The laws setting up the federal court system allow judges to assume "senior status" when they reach a certain age. Senior status judges can maintain a much-reduced case load, but they maintain their full salary, with COLA adjustment, an office, and a complement of law clerks and staff. So it is a very attractive option.
Moreover, because busy districts like SDNY are chronically understaffed, they rely on their complement of senior status judges to keep up with workload.
I had a case in front of Judge Hellerstein in 2008-2010. Around the same time he was still handling a lot of the 9-11 related litigation. He was very much on the ball. Of course there is a difference between mid-70s and 92.
Mid-70s is when judges are legally required to retire over here, that seems an okay age to me. All in all, having no age limit whatsoever for retirement in such important posts seems a terrible design, even if this particular nonagenarian might still retain his acuity.
Has there been any news on the 30-50 million barrels of oil Trump expects to receive from Venezuela?
:lol:
Mexico will pay for it.
Krugman has a writeup on how the vast oil reserves of Venezuela may be somewhat overstated: https://paulkrugman.substack.com/p/the-emperors-new-oil-wealth
The two key points IMO are:
QuoteYou may have heard that Venezuela has the world's largest oil reserves — 300 billion barrels. You probably don't know that Venezuela's reported oil reserves tripled while Hugo Chavez was president. This increase, from roughly 100 billion to 300 billion barrels, didn't reflect major new discoveries or exploration. Instead, it reflected the Chavez government's decision to reclassify the country's Orinoco Belt heavy oil as "proved" — oil that can be recovered with reasonable certainty under existing economic and operating conditions
and
QuoteAs Torsten Slok of Apollo, who recently made this point, notes, "Much of the oil is extra-heavy, which has low recovery and a high cost to produce." This suggests that Venezuela's claims to have immense usable oil reserves were politically motivated hype.
Machado and Trump may come to an agreement. She'll give him her peace prize, he'll give her Venezuela.
Quote from: DGuller on January 09, 2026, 09:21:11 AMMachado and Trump may come to an agreement. She'll give him her peace prize, he'll give her Venezuela.
I really thought that was a joke :(
More expensive than a mass.
Quote from: Maladict on January 09, 2026, 09:27:40 AMQuote from: DGuller on January 09, 2026, 09:21:11 AMMachado and Trump may come to an agreement. She'll give him her peace prize, he'll give her Venezuela.
I really thought that was a joke :(
She be making a bad deal
There was a plentiful supply of oil in 2025 and the price fell from 79$ to 63$. This is with Russia, Iran and Venezuela being sanctioned and also a generally weak dollar. If the price falls further then shale oil production in the USA becomes unprofitable (the breakeven cost seems to be between 45$ and 70$ a barrel). I just can't see why the oil companies would want to waste money investing in an unstable country given these facts.
I suppose Venezuelan oil could substitute for oil from Alberta if Trump wanted to put the squeeze on Canada?
Link https://www.eia.gov/todayinenergy/detail.php?id=66944
Quote from: Richard Hakluyt on January 09, 2026, 10:03:09 AMI suppose Venezuelan oil could substitute for oil from Alberta if Trump wanted to put the squeeze on Canada?
If the Americans find somebody to invest a lot of money and time into building up the necessary infrastructure to replace Alberta's oil supply, sure.
Quote from: Richard Hakluyt on January 09, 2026, 10:03:09 AMThere was a plentiful supply of oil in 2025 and the price fell from 79$ to 63$. This is with Russia, Iran and Venezuela being sanctioned and also a generally weak dollar. If the price falls further then shale oil production in the USA becomes unprofitable (the breakeven cost seems to be between 45$ and 70$ a barrel). I just can't see why the oil companies would want to waste money investing in an unstable country given these facts.
I suppose Venezuelan oil could substitute for oil from Alberta if Trump wanted to put the squeeze on Canada?
I guess eventually, but do they have the port and logistics infrastructure in place in the US?
It would take many years I think and the oil companies would surely drag their heels as well.
Quote from: Jacob on January 08, 2026, 09:37:52 PMKrugman has a writeup on how the vast oil reserves of Venezuela may be somewhat overstated: https://paulkrugman.substack.com/p/the-emperors-new-oil-wealth
The two key points IMO are:
QuoteYou may have heard that Venezuela has the world's largest oil reserves — 300 billion barrels. You probably don't know that Venezuela's reported oil reserves tripled while Hugo Chavez was president. This increase, from roughly 100 billion to 300 billion barrels, didn't reflect major new discoveries or exploration. Instead, it reflected the Chavez government's decision to reclassify the country's Orinoco Belt heavy oil as "proved" — oil that can be recovered with reasonable certainty under existing economic and operating conditions
and
QuoteAs Torsten Slok of Apollo, who recently made this point, notes, "Much of the oil is extra-heavy, which has low recovery and a high cost to produce." This suggests that Venezuela's claims to have immense usable oil reserves were politically motivated hype.
Interesting to think they might have oversold their own overthrow.
Quote from: Josquius on January 09, 2026, 11:03:55 AMQuote from: Jacob on January 08, 2026, 09:37:52 PMKrugman has a writeup on how the vast oil reserves of Venezuela may be somewhat overstated: https://paulkrugman.substack.com/p/the-emperors-new-oil-wealth
The two key points IMO are:
QuoteYou may have heard that Venezuela has the world's largest oil reserves — 300 billion barrels. You probably don't know that Venezuela's reported oil reserves tripled while Hugo Chavez was president. This increase, from roughly 100 billion to 300 billion barrels, didn't reflect major new discoveries or exploration. Instead, it reflected the Chavez government's decision to reclassify the country's Orinoco Belt heavy oil as "proved" — oil that can be recovered with reasonable certainty under existing economic and operating conditions
and
QuoteAs Torsten Slok of Apollo, who recently made this point, notes, "Much of the oil is extra-heavy, which has low recovery and a high cost to produce." This suggests that Venezuela's claims to have immense usable oil reserves were politically motivated hype.
Interesting to think they might have oversold their own overthrow.
Not the first time Trumps gone bankrupt making bad real estate deals. Although it would be his first time to do it to a country. But if anyone can do it it's a guy that many times over failed at being a casino owner.
Quote from: Richard Hakluyt on January 09, 2026, 10:03:09 AMThere was a plentiful supply of oil in 2025 and the price fell from 79$ to 63$. This is with Russia, Iran and Venezuela being sanctioned and also a generally weak dollar. If the price falls further then shale oil production in the USA becomes unprofitable (the breakeven cost seems to be between 45$ and 70$ a barrel). I just can't see why the oil companies would want to waste money investing in an unstable country given these facts.
I suppose Venezuelan oil could substitute for oil from Alberta if Trump wanted to put the squeeze on Canada?
Yeah, at current prices while many already drilled American wells remain profitable, the $ doesn't make sense to aggressively develop new wells.
The press isn't discussing it as much outside of industry / business journals, but a big thing going on is OPEC has basically abandoned for the time any pretense of restricting supply to prop up prices. Too many of the big OPEC countries want to produce more to grab more market share, and you haven't seen the cartel do much like it has traditionally done to artificially jack prices up.
This isn't good long term for U.S. oil companies, which benefit much more than many of the OPEC countries do from higher prices (due to most of them being lower cost producers.)
There's also probably a meta issue in that the U.S. high production relative to current proven U.S. reserves, we're speed running depleting our own reserves which isn't something I suspect the Trump Admin even thinks about.
Quote from: Richard Hakluyt on January 09, 2026, 10:20:38 AMIt would take many years I think and the oil companies would surely drag their heels as well.
Yeah, to your main point - there is no reason for them to make those sorts of investments of time and money.
I didn't totally agee Jake's characterisation of my point here. But couple of interesting moves today via Javier Blas. Jorge Rodriguez, who heads the Parliament and is the brother of the Acting President announcing the release of a "significant number" of political prisoners - interesting particularly because from what I'd read Jorge Rodriguz was who US intelligence had been speaking too.
Separately the Venezuelan state-owned oil company, PDVSA, says it's in talks with the US for the sale of oil to "benefit both sides". No mention of US oil sanctions or Maduro.
As I say there are two countries here with politics at place. This stuff maybe has me wondering who made first contact in those Venezuelan elite-CIA conversations :hmm:
Blas is Bloomberg Energy and Commodities columnist - who I always read on this stuff - is also a bit more positive on oil. Feels a bit too bull-ish but interesting and useful corrective:
QuoteForget the Naysayers, Venezuela Offers Quick Oil Wins
January 9, 2026 at 4:30 AM GMT
By Javier Blas
Javier Blas is a Bloomberg Opinion columnist covering energy and commodities. He is coauthor of "The World for Sale: Money, Power and the Traders Who Barter the Earth's Resources."
Conventional wisdom says the future of the Venezuelan oil industry is bleak. I disagree. The naysayers state that any output gains are far, far away and need huge investments. The reality is more nuanced. There are low-hanging barrels in the country, if you'll forgive the mixed metaphor. This is good-quality crude that's relatively easy to extract — and it opens the way to quick wins in reviving dilapidated petroleum infrastructure.
Sure, I'm talking about a modest recovery: hundreds of thousands of barrels a day extra rather than the millions needed to lift Venezuela's production back to the peaks of the early 1970s and late 1990s. Yet this can be brought on stream rapidly by oil industry standards — say 12 to 18 months — and without eyewatering spending. American oil companies will be involved in that effort.
Will it be as much as the 700,000 barrels a day extra mooted by US Energy Secretary Chris Wright? That may be a stretch. I'd be more comfortable with predicting a 300,000 to 500,000 range by mid-2027 if all goes smoothly. That's still a large amount of oil. In an already oversupplied market any extra barrels will hurt prices — and the OPEC cartel.
Where the prevailing commentary is right is that Venezuela has a lot — a lot — of hard-to-get and very low-quality crude. Naysayers are right that developing those reserves would take probably as long as a decade and perhaps as much as $100 billion in investment. The prize is enormous, but so are the challenges.
(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/G-O2Xy8XoAAql4l?format=png&name=small)
Understanding the difference between the easier- and harder-to-extract oil is crucial when assessing Venezuela's potential. Regrettably, much of the debate has focused on the difficult stuff. The split is also critical to understanding the role US companies might play. Be sure of one thing: They're interested in Venezuela, regardless of any public wariness. If they weren't, why would Chevron Corp., America's biggest oil company after Exxon Mobil Corp., have fought tooth and nail to remain in the country over the last 25 years? In the coming months, I expect Chevron to push for an even larger role there.
Conspiracy theorists see Big Oil's fingerprints all over President Donald Trump's Venezuela gambit, just as they did when George W Bush's troops invaded Iraq. I don't think the companies knew exactly what Trump was planning. But by late November and early December, anyone who matters in the US industry believed ousting Nicolas Maduro was merely a question of how and when. Many I spoke to thought it was weeks away.
To understand what's going to happen now, one needs to look at the geography and geology. Venezuela sits atop a complex oil map developed over a century of exploration and exploitation. To simplify, let me separate its assets into two buckets: the conventional oilfields around Lake Maracaibo in western Venezuela and the Monagas basin in the east; and the so-called Orinoco belt in its southeast, which I would define as unconventional oil1.
The "quick wins" to lift production are in Maracaibo and Monagas, says Ivan Sandrea, a Venezuelan geologist and former chief executive officer of Sierra Oil and Gas. "Years of neglect means oil production plunged, but with some limited spending and the right conditions, production can recover."
(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/G-OzAItWQAA9Lss?format=png&name=small)
The region around Maracaibo is home to the Bolivar Coastal Fields, a cluster that includes legendary sites such as Tia Juana and Bachaquero-Lagunillas. Some have produced oil since the 1920s, but still have more to give. The infrastructure is truly run down, but basic repairs would go a long way to boosting output. It needs a few billion dollars in operational spending, not gargantuan capital expenditure. The US has said it will roll back sanctions to "authorize the import of select oilfield equipment, parts, and services."
The Monagas basin also contains several important oilfields; above all the El Furrial, discovered four decades ago and once a cash cow for the country. As with Maracaibo, the eastern fields are in desperate need of fixing up.
Carlos Bellorin, a Venezuelan oil analyst at Welligence Energy Analytics, reckons output from the top-25 Maracaibo and Monagas oilfields has dropped by more than 1 million barrels in a decade. Today, they're "estimated to produce around 450,000 barrels a day, underscoring the magnitude of the upside," he says. Other local experts broadly agree, even if everyone has their own estimates.
Will US companies play a big role? It depends who you mean. For big oil-services companies — Halliburton Co., Baker Hughes Co., SLB Ltd. and Weatherford International — the answer is yes. Days after Maduro's capture, the boss of Weatherford, a specialist in constructing wells, described Venezuela as a "massive opportunity" and the "most interesting" development in the industry for a long while.
Chevron will be there as it already has an interest in two fields in the Maracaibo basin. Its US oil major peers? Unlikely at first. But Venezuela isn't just an American playground. Expect to see European companies already present — Italy's Eni SpA, Spain's Repsol SA and France's Maurel et Prom SA — trying to take advantage.
After the quick-win barrels are pumped, boosting output further will be tougher. A key constraint is the availability of electricity needed to run pumps and other kit. Power shortages are particularly acute in the Maracaibo basin. To fix this, serious investment would be needed and that would take time.
(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/G-Oz6fnWQAAOJ89?format=png&name=900x900)
Crucially, the oil from the Maracaibo and Monagas areas is of mixed quality, some of it heavy, but much of it the more easily refined medium and light stuff. US refiners have consumed it for decades and would buy it again given the chance.
The Orinoco belt is completely different to the conventional basins. The oil there is so viscous it looks like marmalade, and it needs to be diluted with petrochemicals such as naphtha to flow. Back in the 1990s the region was a magnet for the global oil industry, attracting the likes of Exxon, ConocoPhillips and TotalEnergies SE. Apart from Chevron, most foreign players left or were forced out.
Even if US oil companies are willing to reinvest here, the hurdles are very high. Billions of dollars in investment would be needed, perhaps as much as $10 billion per year. Still, Chevron has a 30% stake in two Orinoco projects and it is likely to double down if conditions allow.
The commodity market is usually guilty of two sins when analyzing oil-rich nations emerging from crisis: People underestimate their ability to quickly recover some lost production; and massively overestimate the long-term gains.
I've seen this movie several times in nearly 30 years covering the industry, including Iraq in 2003, Libya in 2011 and Iran in 2021-2023. Venezuela itself is an example: After oil production plunged to a 100-year low of 450,000 barrels a day in 2020, few anticipated the size of its rebound. But it doubled in five years. Now, I expect the post-Maduro nation to surprise positively in the short term, and negatively in the long run.
The Monagas basin is also known as the Eastern basin. In addition, two other basins are important: the Falcon basin, which is related to the Maracaibo one, and the Barinas-Apure, in the south of the country. Additional resources are located offshore in the Caribbean Sea. View in article.
Quote from: Sheilbh on January 09, 2026, 03:25:01 PMI didn't totally agee Jake's characterisation of my point here.
Which point, and what is the disagreement?
Quote from: Jacob on January 09, 2026, 03:49:03 PMWhich point, and what is the disagreement?
Oh nothing massive :lol: You said I had a theory about local collaborators which was being slow-rolled - but it was competent.
I would throw in a million caveats around that - at best a possibility. I'd read about US intelligence contacts with the VP and her brother - so wondered if there's something there, especially given that Trump (sensibly) is ignoring the opposition. Plus it might not be visible on day two after kidnapping Madur - if there's something going on, I think the pace will be set by the Venezuelans according to their political needs.
And if there's something it could still be incompetent - one possibility in that scenario is that a faction within Venezuela made a power-play and got the Americans to provide the muscle.
300-500K is pretty small potatoes
@Sheilbh that sounds more reasonable than what I thought you initially had said :hug:
As the intent seems to be to keep the current regime in power (with Maduro as a token human sacrifice/hostage), with sticks to try and make it do our bidding...it appears we're moving from the discredited "regime change" to instead using "regime control".
So it seems like a faction inside Venezuela might have used the US as an instrument for getting rid of Maduro and seize power themselves, and part of that includes some sort of deal being made with the Trump administration.
Also, it is possible that Putin and Trump have reached some sort of understanding about "spheres of influence". Crudely (and I've seen it reported like that), Putin traded Venezuela for Ukraine. Though, of course, Trump is notorious for not holding up his end of the deal, so if he feels secure in getting what he wants from Venezuela he may keep the pressure up on Putin in Ukraine (or honour his deal, who knows?)
If either (or both) of those are true, it looks like it's not regime change in Venezuela as much as it's a change in patron.
Also, if there was an understanding reached with Putin it'll be interesting to see to what degree Chinese interests in Venezuela get screwed as part of any impending changes.
Of course, it remains to be seen how much Venezuela aligns with the US in the next little while.
Was Venezuela Putin's to surrender?
Quote from: HVC on January 09, 2026, 06:17:25 PMWas Venezuela Putin's to surrender?
No, much like Ukraine isn't Trump's to surrender. Doesn't mean they won't try.
Putin could, I suppose, take steps to make it easier or harder for the US in Venezuela, however.
Quote from: grumbler on January 07, 2026, 01:08:09 AMVenezuela doesn't have any high-quality oil. It is the lowest-grade crude sold and is expensive to refine.
Having said that, the US has the only large refinery capacity that can process this oil, and has traditionally been the only real market for the stuff.
Venezuelan oil is apparently mostly unhardened asphalt in terms of ease of refining. :hmm:
As far as I can tell the current US strategy regarding Venezuela will be the current regime stays intact so long as they (Trump-linked slush funds) get a large cut.
Just an observation but it seems the loathsome online multipolarists just got a very rude awakening. They have rediscovered a zeal for international norms, procedures, and rule of law now that the largest navy on Earth is privateering their shadow tanker fleet.
Of course the US is not doing this for any high-minded goals like democracy, people-power, etc. It's basically a mafia-don shakedown.
Again via Blas at the White House meeting on Venezuelan oil Trump basically told Conoco to forget about the $12 billion the company is owned by Venezuela ("welll....good write off").
Today Trump's issued an executive ord to shield Venezuelan oil revnue in the US from creditors.
It is all interesting.
Quote from: Jacob on January 09, 2026, 06:12:10 PMAlso, it is possible that Putin and Trump have reached some sort of understanding about "spheres of influence". Crudely (and I've seen it reported like that), Putin traded Venezuela for Ukraine. Though, of course, Trump is notorious for not holding up his end of the deal, so if he feels secure in getting what he wants from Venezuela he may keep the pressure up on Putin in Ukraine (or honour his deal, who knows?)
I'm scared that he made a similar deal with China vis-a-vie Taiwan.
Quote from: Razgovory on January 10, 2026, 07:19:11 PMI'm scared that he made a similar deal with China vis-a-vie Taiwan.
The question is, I suppose, what he expects to be getting in return.
Quote from: Jacob on January 10, 2026, 08:45:03 PMQuote from: Razgovory on January 10, 2026, 07:19:11 PMI'm scared that he made a similar deal with China vis-a-vie Taiwan.
The question is, I suppose, what he expects to be getting in return.
Trump gets Venezuela and Greenland and Chinese and Russian don't object, Russia gets Ukraine and the US and China don't object, China gets Taiwan and the US and Russia don't object. They are just dividing the world up.
I guess what's good about Trump is he goes back on his word/deals constantly.
Quote from: Zoupa on January 10, 2026, 09:41:12 PMI guess what's good about Trump is he goes back on his word/deals constantly.
Saw some reports today that Trump's back to thinking Putin is an obstacle to a Ukraine deal (I think he's right - I don't think Russia wants a deal). There's already the US pressure on Indian tariffs over India buying Russian oil and now a couple of seizures of shadow fleet ships - apparently they might try to put more pressure on Putin.
Now obviously it would only take another phone call with Putin to change that - followed by months of European diplomacy pretending to go along with Trump and position Putin as the problem.
It's exhausting. But as you say ultimately what he says is kind of only ever temporarily meaningful.
Quote from: Sheilbh on January 10, 2026, 05:46:29 PMAgain via Blas at the White House meeting on Venezuelan oil Trump basically told Conoco to forget about the $12 billion the company is owned by Venezuela ("welll....good write off").
Today Trump's issued an executive ord to shield Venezuelan oil revnue in the US from creditors.
It is all interesting.
After ranting about Venezuela stealing from the oil companies, Trump himself just did exactly that.
Then, despite assurances that the US is running Venezuela, the State Dept issued an alert for all American nationals to flee the country as paramilitaries on the streets are searching for Americans.
The shit show continues . . .
Quote from: Sheilbh on January 10, 2026, 09:47:05 PMIt's exhausting. But as you say ultimately what he says is kind of only ever temporarily meaningful.
There is no one at the tiller. There is no NSA. Gabbard is MIA. Trump is confused and addled and lurches back-and-forth depending on who spoke to him at last. Policy formation to the extent it exists appears to be coming mostly from Miller, which would explain the otherwise inexplicable presence of a deputy chief of staff at a conference announcing a major overseas military operation. Policy execution appears to be completely formless and driven by Trump's mood in a given moment and the motives of whoever manages to get access and shove a paper in front of him to sign.
I waver between whether Miller is a Grima Wormtounge or a Bib Fortuna. :hmm:
Though Trump is a geriatric Jabba in either case.
Quote from: Tonitrus on January 11, 2026, 02:07:39 AMI waver between whether Miller is a Grima Wormtounge or a Bib Fortuna. :hmm:
Though Trump is a geriatric Jabba in either case.
He's a random EUOT Byzanteen or HOItard who lucked into a job where his inane racist alt-history takes gets turned into policy.
Meanhwhile, on Twitter, the Colombian president:
(https://i.ibb.co/rfKpWR4C/image.png)
QuoteTranslated from Spanish by Google
This is Gran Colombia, it was Bolívar's idea and I propose by constituent vote of the population, that we rebuild it as a confederation of autonomous Nations.
We would have common policies on the matters proposed by the people. Undoubtedly, this would include trade policy geared towards industrialization and fulfilling our geographical role as a center of the world and of Latin America—a center of clean energy, knowledge, and high-tech infrastructure for mobility and communication. Based on these principles, there would be a Gran Colombian parliament, a court of justice, and a governing council, similar to those in the European Union or the federal United States.
A potential for tourism and global connectivity.
Quote from: Syt on January 14, 2026, 01:42:22 AMMeanhwhile, on Twitter, the Colombian president:
(https://i.ibb.co/rfKpWR4C/image.png)
QuoteTranslated from Spanish by Google
This is Gran Colombia, it was Bolívar's idea and I propose by constituent vote of the population, that we rebuild it as a confederation of autonomous Nations.
We would have common policies on the matters proposed by the people. Undoubtedly, this would include trade policy geared towards industrialization and fulfilling our geographical role as a center of the world and of Latin America—a center of clean energy, knowledge, and high-tech infrastructure for mobility and communication. Based on these principles, there would be a Gran Colombian parliament, a court of justice, and a governing council, similar to those in the European Union or the federal United States.
A potential for tourism and global connectivity.
GCU? Not a bad idea.
Not sure if it's American competence or smart internal Venezuelan politics playing the Americans - but Reuters exclusive today that Maduro's "hardline" Interior Minister had been in contact with American intelligence for months before the attack.
https://www.politico.com/news/2026/01/23/trump-administration-weighs-naval-blockade-to-halt-cuban-oil-imports-00744708
QuoteTrump administration weighs naval blockade to halt Cuban oil imports
"Energy is the chokehold to kill" the Cuban regime, said a person familiar with the discussions.
Trump's administration has really settled into a "we have a military, might as well us it" stance.
I've been trying to think of a good play off of "Bay of Pigs"...but "Bay of the Cheeto Hog" doesn't have quite the ring to it.