India is reacting strongly to the recent attacks in Kashmir, apparently blaming Pakistan. They're reportedly pausing the Indus Water Cooperation treaty, closing the Attari-Wagah border crossing, closing the border to Pakistani nationals, and expelling embassy staff.
How far will this escalate?
How will it interplay with all the other geo-politial excitement we're seeing these days?
India has expelled all Pakistanis and they have to leave by next Tuesday.
Quote from: Zanza on April 24, 2025, 06:11:07 AMIndia has expelled all Pakistanis and they have to leave by next Tuesday.
Jesus Christ. That seems like quite an escalation. Or does India and Pakistan do this kind of thing regularly?
Quote from: Valmy on April 24, 2025, 08:31:06 AMQuote from: Zanza on April 24, 2025, 06:11:07 AMIndia has expelled all Pakistanis and they have to leave by next Tuesday.
Jesus Christ. That seems like quite an escalation. Or does India and Pakistan do this kind of thing regularly?
How many people are we talking about here? Because of the massive size of each country's populations I had initially thought it must be an incredibly high number of people, but now I wonder if it's not!? Maybe in the thousands?
People were worried about America falling apart as a green light for China to start messing around, but everyone always forgets about India. Once again I blame the Beatles.
Quote from: HVC on April 24, 2025, 05:38:18 PMOnce again I blame the Beatles.
Get back! Get back! Get back Pakistanis to where they once belonged
I will not let this be!
I was just recently listening to Lex Fridman podcast with Modi. For most of the conversation Modi was sounding infinitely wise, which almost any politically savvy leader is capable of doing when having a long conversation with a soft-ball throwing dilettante. However, when it came to Pakistan, he couldn't hide his disdain for the country, the dignified wise man mask slipped.
Quote from: Valmy on April 24, 2025, 08:31:06 AMQuote from: Zanza on April 24, 2025, 06:11:07 AMIndia has expelled all Pakistanis and they have to leave by next Tuesday.
Jesus Christ. That seems like quite an escalation. Or does India and Pakistan do this kind of thing regularly?
Expulsion, I don't know. Shooting at each other, yes.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Indo-Pakistani_wars_and_conflicts
Quote from: Zanza on April 24, 2025, 06:11:07 AMIndia has expelled all Pakistanis and they have to leave by next Tuesday.
I've not seen this mentioned in any of the reports I've read. Do you have a link?
I have read that both countries have expelled some (maybe all - unclear) diplomats, that India has ordered all of its citizens to return from Pakistan and that Pakistan has withdrawn all visas for Indians and closed the border.
Quote from: Valmy on April 24, 2025, 08:31:06 AMQuote from: Zanza on April 24, 2025, 06:11:07 AMIndia has expelled all Pakistanis and they have to leave by next Tuesday.
Jesus Christ. That seems like quite an escalation. Or does India and Pakistan do this kind of thing regularly?
The water agreement has never been suspended, not even during full blown wars. It's incredibly esclatory.
Quote from: Gups on April 25, 2025, 04:18:18 AMQuote from: Zanza on April 24, 2025, 06:11:07 AMIndia has expelled all Pakistanis and they have to leave by next Tuesday.
I've not seen this mentioned in any of the reports I've read. Do you have a link?
I have read that both countries have expelled some (maybe all - unclear) diplomats, that India has ordered all of its citizens to return from Pakistan and that Pakistan has withdrawn all visas for Indians and closed the border.
I read it on German news. Here is an Indian source:
https://www.indiatoday.in/amp/india/story/expel-pakistanis-amit-shah-directs-states-after-india-revoke-visas-2715048-2025-04-25
Quote from: HVC on April 24, 2025, 05:38:18 PMPeople were worried about America falling apart as a green light for China to start messing around, but everyone always forgets about India. Once again I blame the Beatles.
China is the interesting wild card in this I'd say. They are increasingly close with Pakistan and this could really push the two closer.
They have some claims on India but I'd imagine this is a distraction they could do without at the moment whilst their focus is on the sea.
Pakistan defence minister says military incursion by India is imminent (https://www.reuters.com/world/pakistan-defence-minister-says-military-incursion-by-india-is-imminent-2025-04-28/)
Another 'chance' for Deus Ex to get a prediction right. Too bad it's this one
Quote from: Crazy_Ivan80 on April 29, 2025, 12:31:46 PMAnother 'chance' for Deus Ex to get a prediction right. Too bad it's this one
This happens every few years. India bombed Pakistan in 2016 and in 2019 (one pilot was shot down). Pakistan really ramped up support for terrorists once it acquired nukes. :hmm:
QuotePakistan's minister Tarar warns of possible Indian military strike within 24-36 hours
April 30 (Reuters) - Pakistan's information minister Attaullah Tarar said on Wednesday that the country has credible intelligence that India intends to launch a military strike within the next 24 to 36 hours.
https://www.reuters.com/world/pakistans-minister-tarar-says-india-may-launch-military-strike-within-next-24-36-2025-04-29/
I think suspending the Indus Water Treaty is huge - I think India and Pakistan have literally been fighting wars and the treaty's still operated.
Can't help but wonder if it's a sign of things to come though with resource and water power in a climate driven age?
Semi-related but a while ago I listened to a podcast - can't remember which recently - which was about the sensitivities of international river management particularly Mekong. It was more around politics of water management and hydropower - really interesting.
Looks like India is bailing Israel out. Surely everyone in the West will switch to condemning India once it attacks Pakistan?
Quote from: DGuller on April 29, 2025, 06:21:39 PMLooks like India is bailing Israel out. Surely everyone in the West will switch to condemning India once it attacks Pakistan?
We just buried the other thread, you want to make a new one so quickly?
Quote from: DGuller on April 29, 2025, 06:21:39 PMLooks like India is bailing Israel out. Surely everyone in the West will switch to condemning India once it attacks Pakistan?
Oh please let's have months of this stupid conversation.
Quote from: HVC on April 29, 2025, 06:24:59 PMQuote from: DGuller on April 29, 2025, 06:21:39 PMLooks like India is bailing Israel out. Surely everyone in the West will switch to condemning India once it attacks Pakistan?
We just buried the other thread, you want to make a new one so quickly?
A bold endorsement of Trump's stance on how to handle differing opinions on this issue.
Quote from: Razgovory on April 29, 2025, 08:41:53 PMA bold endorsement of Trump's stance on how to handle differing opinions on this issue.
Hey man if you have something new, we can talk about it.
But another endless round of how everybody is a hypocrite for some reason seems very tedious.
Quote from: Razgovory on April 29, 2025, 08:41:53 PMQuote from: HVC on April 29, 2025, 06:24:59 PMQuote from: DGuller on April 29, 2025, 06:21:39 PMLooks like India is bailing Israel out. Surely everyone in the West will switch to condemning India once it attacks Pakistan?
We just buried the other thread, you want to make a new one so quickly?
A bold endorsement of Trump's stance on how to handle differing opinions on this issue.
If given the choice I'd have left the thread alone. Let people show their true selves and what not. I even worried that it'd spread to other threads again. But what done is done. A decision was made and it should be honoured. So with that I'll leave the topic alone.
Quote from: HVC on April 29, 2025, 06:24:59 PMQuote from: DGuller on April 29, 2025, 06:21:39 PMLooks like India is bailing Israel out. Surely everyone in the West will switch to condemning India once it attacks Pakistan?
We just buried the other thread, you want to make a new one so quickly?
Let's not but it would make an interesting study.
That is an interesting thought. Will we collectively learn the lesson of how to discuss a contentious issue without it turning into the dumpster fire that thread became?
I don't know.
A rumour I read today on a Ukraine account.
Pakistan is desperately scrabbling about trying to buy artillery shells as they only have enough for 4 days of war.
This is because they needed the money and sold most of their stocks to the Czechs.
Interesting when the inter-connectedness of everything shows itself like so.
Another unrelated thing but a sign of inter-connectedness is Pakistan was absolutely fucked by the Ukraine invasion. They rely really, really heavily on LNG and for a number of reasons have not gone for long-term supply contracts - they trade on the spots market. So in the last few years (but especially 2022) as Russian gas turned off for Europe and Europe suddenly waded into the LNG market they were able to pay massively more than Pakistan. There were tankers literally en route from the Gulf who turned around to head to Europe instead.
It caused huge energy and social problems in Pakistan - I think it was generally a sudden new massive participant in a market that previously had been dominated by Asian countries but I think Pakistan was particularly exposed because of its lack of long-term supply agreements.
Pakistan 'attacked with missiles' - as India says it targeted terrorist camps (https://news.sky.com/story/pakistan-attacked-with-missiles-as-india-says-it-targeted-terrorist-camps-13362775)
India says it has launched strikes on Pakistan and Pakistan-administered Kashmir (https://www.bbc.com/news/live/cwyneele13qt)
Indian government says it has launched attacks on nine sites.
Oh are we doing this? I had hoped cooler heads were prevailing.
Low key thing I've seen people pointing out (and I'd love to know if there's any bigger stats on this) - it seems like lots of accounts on Twitter that appear to have been mainly posting pro-Trump content suddenly taking a strong interest in India-Pakistan and pivoting strongly to the Jai Hind internet. Not sure if it's actual Indians or maybe just bots on the engagement farms?
(The overlap of European, Indian and Israeli far-right - and interest in Trump - is something I always find a bit strange. Some of the weird nationalist international stuff going on online.)
The more conflicts flare up all over the world, the more others with unresolved issues will start thinking that it's now or never for them to make their move.
Quote from: Sheilbh on May 06, 2025, 05:52:54 PM(The overlap of European, Indian and Israeli far-right - and interest in Trump - is something I always find a bit strange. Some of the weird nationalist international stuff going on online.)
The anti-Muslim League. Remember way back when Trump was first running and a bunch of Indians staged that bizarro Bollywood Trump rally in Florida with frickin' lasers? It was a perfectly logical gambit by Indians to build support for India's confrontation with Pakistan and Modi's Hindu nationalism.
Quote from: Valmy on May 06, 2025, 05:36:07 PMOh are we doing this? I had hoped cooler heads were prevailing.
In other times, there would have been US diplomats at work trying to calm them. Possibly failing, but at least trying. The UN might have also been involved. Other countries would join urging restrain, if they could.
There's no one to cool anyone's head now.
Eh, this did this six or seven year ago.
Quote from: Razgovory on May 06, 2025, 07:27:44 PMEh, this did this six or seven year ago.
They have done it several times.
Just seems more concerning with Modi and the international order in disarray.
Although in fairness I don't think the international order has ever really cared/dealt with India-Pakistan. It's just been one of those conflicts that flares. In part it's sort of a sign of the success of Indian foreign policy which always rejected any attempt to incorporate India into a "bloc" that, while they were friendly with the Soviets and there were Cold War angles on India-Pakistan conflicts, actually it was, to a large extent, separated from that order. And I think that continues (not sure if that makes it higher or lower risk).
Ironically one of the only states that I think has actually helps broker peace talks is Russia.
[url defaultattr=""]whttps://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cd9l9qwyv23o[/url]
QuoteIndia to stop water flowing across international borders, Modi says
9 hours ago
Anbarasan Ethirajan
South Asia regional editor
Tiffany Wertheimer
BBC News, London
Reuters indian troops patrol on Dal Lake in KashmirReuters
Relations between India and Pakistan have declined sharply following a deadly attack in Indian-administered Kashmir
India has announced that it will stop its water from flowing over international borders.
"Now, India's water will flow for India's benefit, it will be conserved for India's benefit, and it will be used for India's progress", Prime Minister Narendra Modi said on Tuesday.
While he did not mention Pakistan specifically, Modi's comments come about two weeks after India suspended a 65-year-old water sharing treaty with its neighbour.
Relations between India and Pakistan have declined sharply following a deadly militant attack on tourists in Indian-administered Kashmir last month. India accuses Pakistan of backing cross-border terrorism - a charge Islamabad flatly denies.
On Tuesday night, India said it had launched missile strikes on nine sites in Pakistan and Pakistan-administered Kashmir. Pakistan's military said eight people had been killed.
India said three civilians were killed by Pakistani shelling on its side of the de facto border.
Follow live: India launches air strikes on Pakistan and Pakistan-administered Kashmir
Several rivers flow from India into Pakistan, providing vital water supplies to about 80% of farms there. Pakistani leaders previously warned that any attempt to stop the flow of water "will be considered as an act of war".
The 1960 Indus Waters Treaty (IWT), which governs the water sharing of six rivers in the Indus basin between India and Pakistan, survived two wars between the nuclear rivals and was seen as an example of trans-boundary water management.
Modi's suspension of the treaty was one of several steps he took against Pakistan after the attack, which killed 26 civilians.
The PM did not elaborate on how India plans to use the excess water, and experts say the country needs to build more dams, reservoirs and lakes to store it, which will take time to build.
The escalation prompted the US to repeat its calls for calm.
"We continue to urge Pakistan and India to work towards a responsible resolution that maintains long-term peace and regional stability in South Asia," State Department spokeswoman Tammy Bruce told reporters on Tuesday afternoon.
In practical terms, does it change a lot from suspending the Indus Water Treaty? India can't hold all the water forever in dams.
This article details it:
https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cd7vjyezypqo (https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cd7vjyezypqo)
Quote from: Sheilbh on May 07, 2025, 04:54:19 AMAlthough in fairness I don't think the international order has ever really cared/dealt with India-Pakistan. It's just been one of those conflicts that flares. In part it's sort of a sign of the success of Indian foreign policy which always rejected any attempt to incorporate India into a "bloc" that, while they were friendly with the Soviets and there were Cold War angles on India-Pakistan conflicts, actually it was, to a large extent, separated from that order. And I think that continues (not sure if that makes it higher or lower risk).
Ironically one of the only states that I think has actually helps broker peace talks is Russia.
Quite the opposite. Once nuclear war became a possibility, reducing tensions between the two nations has been a priority of the international order.
This doesn't seem good
https://pk.usembassy.gov/security-alert-u-s-consulate-lahore-may-8-2025/
QuoteSecurity Alert: U.S. Consulate Lahore (May 8, 2025)
Location: Lahore and Punjab
Event: Restriction of U.S. Personnel Movements in Lahore
Due to reports of drone explosions, downed drones, and possible airspace incursions in and near Lahore, the U.S. Consulate General in Lahore has directed all consulate personnel to shelter-in-place.
The Consulate has also received initial reports that authorities may be evacuating some areas adjacent to Lahore's main airport.
This seems to escalate quickly. Let's hope sanity prevails.
We have entered the escalation spiral
https://x.com/shashj/status/1920410126692815096
QuoteIndia says that Pakistan attacked with drones and missiles overnight in a number of places & that India responded "in the same domain with the same intensity", suggesting that the strikes on Lahore are retaliatory.
(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/GqapgwgX0AAdiot?format=jpg&name=900x900)
Pakistan's Chinese made fighters shot down 2 Indian fighters. To be studied closely by various armed forces.
https://www.reuters.com/world/pakistans-chinese-made-jet-brought-down-two-indian-fighter-aircraft-us-officials-2025-05-08/
Not just aircraft. This is the first real use of the HQ-9 SAM system as well. I've seen mixed reviews of the system so far, but it's so hard to get clear information about what's actually going on. I mean, it's always hard to get a proper assessment during an active war, but it seems like when these two are involved the bullshit ratchets up to 11.
Yeah I imagine the Chinese are very, very interested in seeing how their equipment in the Pakistani military performs.
Edit: Though totally agree we'll not have much of a picture as the general public.
Major attack by Pakistan across several regions of India just now. Looks to be ever escalating. Might need to rename the thread to war soon.
Quote from: Zoupa on May 09, 2025, 07:28:14 PMMajor attack by Pakistan across several regions of India just now. Looks to be ever escalating. Might need to rename the thread to war soon.
Yes, 'Cry 'Havoc!', and let slip the dogs of war'.
The Pakistan response with ballistic missiles to Indian attacks on three airfields.
edit:
there calling it 'Operation Bunyan Marsoos.' a koranic verse about something to do with lead or a unified Islamic reaction?
Uhh...guys?
https://x.com/OSINTWarfare/status/1920959783470760251? (https://x.com/OSINTWarfare/status/1920959783470760251?)
https://x.com/InsiderGeo/status/1920972789273567377? (https://x.com/InsiderGeo/status/1920972789273567377?)
https://x.com/GovtofPakistan/status/1920970441310503162? (https://x.com/GovtofPakistan/status/1920970441310503162?)
Lot's of video of explosions and such online, unconfirmed as of now
https://x.com/clashreport/status/1920992009956843557? (https://x.com/clashreport/status/1920992009956843557?)
https://x.com/InsiderGeo/status/1920991707560120827? (https://x.com/InsiderGeo/status/1920991707560120827?)
CNN and Reuters are reporting that Pakistan has targeted three airbases in an "eye for eye" (yes this is the quote from the Pakistani military) strike in reprisal for India's three airbase strikes earlier.
https://www.cnn.com/world/live-news/india-pakistan-operation-sindoor-05-09-25-intl-hnk (https://www.cnn.com/world/live-news/india-pakistan-operation-sindoor-05-09-25-intl-hnk)
(https://media.discordapp.net/attachments/1365329232766701639/1370560411715506276/image.png?ex=681ff159&is=681e9fd9&hm=7b8b9e4fe74bfc882c7d43f80ca11086fa3407d0ac6a2f57fd8cbcf41fc46f7f&=&format=webp&quality=lossless)
While Pakistan deserves to have a good old spanking for not only making the Taliban possible in their madrassas and withholding information from their ally, the US of fucking A, I sincerely, from my superficial knowledge of Islam and the varieties of it, sincerely doubt that there are many fellow believers who would stand up for Pakistan.
Pakistan gaining nukes was a catastrophe. India, too, really. It's not like the Hindu nationalism preached by Mohdi is like Nehru's, this is more in "Indiana Jones" territory with some bloodthirsty prince cheering.
I believe the UK probably has more Indian than Pakistani immigrants of the 3rd or 4th generation. Norway mostly accepted Pakistanis, and that's when the neo-Nazis came about. This conflict is not local, but global, just as the one between Turkey and the Kurds, the Azeri against Armenians, Greeks against Turks, there are diasporas of them all and it will spill onto the streets even in small towns like where I live.
See how I gently jumped above the fence on the Israel-Arab conflict there? :lol:
Lots of crazy claims of a massive air battle above the Indian city of Srinagar.
Hopefully not true.
Not an encouraging sign
https://x.com/ANI/status/1921020958581703017?
(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/GqjWVCmXgAEtUnd?format=jpg&name=900x900)
Good thread on the nuclear deterence dynamics between Pakistan and India
https://bsky.app/profile/nktpnd.bsky.social/post/3lortebd4eq2f
India is beginning to mobolize its reserves.
https://www.theguardian.com/world/live/2025/may/10/pakistan-says-three-air-bases-attacked-by-indian-missiles-live-updates
QuoteIndia starts large mobilisation of extra troops to border, says military
Hannah Ellis-Petersen
The Indian military says it has actively begun large-scale mobilisation of additional forces to the border, including activating its reserve territorial army (TA), to ensure full operational strength of the army in the event of any further conflict escalation.
In a notification on Friday amid the escalating tensions between India and Pakistan, the Indian ministry of defence announced the activation of 14 of 32 infantry battalions of the TA for deployment across the country until February 2028.
Each TA battalion has about 750 personnel.
Hopefully it's just precautionary. According to the Guardian, India does not have the dominance that you would expect due to a sizable build up of their forces on the Chinese border.
QuoteLooking now at India and Pakistan's military might along the contested Kashmir border, the Indian army is about double the size of Pakistan's but the two sides are "fairly evenly balanced", says Sushant Singh, an author and political science lecturer at Yale who spent two decades in the Indian army.
There are about 1.2 million active Indian personnel compared with about 650,000 for Pakistan, Hannah Ellis-Petersen and Shah Meer Baloch report. Their dispatch continues:
Singh emphasised that, since 2020, India had deployed huge amounts of military personnel and resources towards its mountainous border with China, after the India-China border crisis swiftly escalated. India has also had issues with the modernisation of its armed forces and faced a systematic recruitment problem, leading to a shortfall of soldiers.
"Despite its size, India doesn't have the kind of dominance where you would expect India to easily ride roughshod over Pakistan or declare a quick win," said Singh.
The question of who would have the edge in any confrontation is also a question of equipment. In recent years, India has been shifting away from its reliance on Russian weapons to buying western munitions, including elite French Rafale jet planes and F-16 jets from the US. Pakistan now buys 80% of its military arsenal from China.
According to reports, as tensions with India rose last month, China rushed 100 more of its powerful new PL-15 missiles to Pakistan, which it usually keeps for its own inventory and does not export.
On Friday, the Pakistan army claimed it used the PL-15 missiles to bring down several Indian jets during Wednesday's strikes. Shuja Nawaz, the author of Crossed Swords and a known expert on Pakistan's military, said this showed that "China is not only helping Pakistan, but it is using it as a kind of testing ground for its weaponry against India".
Mobilization does not sound good.
If true, not good. That'll mean more retaliation.
https://x.com/OSINT_Insider/status/1921171523043266605?
QuoteSqn Leader Usman Yousaf along with four airmen have died in Indian missile attack on Bholari Airbase.
Aaaaaaand there's a truce now.
#NothingEverHappens
Quote from: Habbaku on May 10, 2025, 08:56:37 AM#NothingEverHappens
Yeah.
(https://media1.tenor.com/m/gMELs8rtG1wAAAAC/nothing-ever-happens-chud.gif)
https://www.indiatoday.in/india/story/shelling-reported-jammu-region-pakistan-breaks-ceasefire-agreement-india-tensions-operation-sindoor-2722858-2025-05-10
2 options.
1. Government negotiated in good faith and the military said, nah, we're going to keep fighting.
2. The government was in on it.
Neither makes descalation easy
Like many of the world conflicts this is like a dysfunctional marriage. Careful taking sides or they'll decide they love each other again and turn on you.
Quote from: jimmy olsen on May 10, 2025, 11:26:37 AMhttps://www.indiatoday.in/india/story/shelling-reported-jammu-region-pakistan-breaks-ceasefire-agreement-india-tensions-operation-sindoor-2722858-2025-05-10
Shortest truce ever?
Quote from: Valmy on May 10, 2025, 01:13:19 PMQuote from: jimmy olsen on May 10, 2025, 11:26:37 AMhttps://www.indiatoday.in/india/story/shelling-reported-jammu-region-pakistan-breaks-ceasefire-agreement-india-tensions-operation-sindoor-2722858-2025-05-10
Shortest truce ever?
the truces Russia puts out are even shorter because Russia breaks them from second 1
Looks like peace is holding. The cricket is back on.
A surprise victory for Pakistan if anything. Seems their Chinese equipment performed above expectations and India lost some Rafales.
I saw that the Indian Foreign Minister has had to lock all his social media accounts after a lot of very virulent attacks on him and his family.
Reading about it, it made me think of Imperial Japan and can't help but feel that Modi's whipping up of Hindu nationalism may have been helpful for domestic politics but is maybe going to be very difficult to manage when it collides with foreign policy?