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Time for an appropriately gloomy poll. Which of the above do you think will happen first?

I had 'breakup of NATO' and 'breakup of EU' listed too at first, but they hit a little too close to home.  :(

Taiwan still seems a few years away, so I voted the Balkans. The whole situation in Kosovo has been heating up for a while now.

I don't think it will lead to global conflict though.

TSMC will selfdestroy it's facilities to keep it out of China's hand.

I went with denoation of a nuclear weapon, a silver-lining of which might be to sober 'us' up a bit? :unsure:

The Middle East is always a safe choice.  Iran has been almost in open warfare already, and that was with Biden.  Not hard to imagine things escalating further, especially if the hardliners in Israel perceive a limited time opportunity to change facts on the ground in a major way.

Hasn't a global conflict already started in the M/E?

Quote from: crazy canuck on November 18, 2024, 11:25:23 AMHasn't a global conflict already started in the M/E?

I'd argue it started with Ukraine. Israel/Gaza is merely the second front. Once Taiwan gets invaded the war will start officially.

Quote from: PJL on November 18, 2024, 11:49:57 AM

Quote from: crazy canuck on November 18, 2024, 11:25:23 AMHasn't a global conflict already started in the M/E?

I'd argue it started with Ukraine. Israel/Gaza is merely the second front. Once Taiwan gets invaded the war will start officially.

Interesting theory, what is the connection between the Russian invasion of Ukraine and the hostilities in the M/E?

I suppose one link is the Russian support of the Houthis.

Quote from: crazy canuck on November 18, 2024, 12:22:23 PM

Quote from: PJL on November 18, 2024, 11:49:57 AM

Quote from: crazy canuck on November 18, 2024, 11:25:23 AMHasn't a global conflict already started in the M/E?

I'd argue it started with Ukraine. Israel/Gaza is merely the second front. Once Taiwan gets invaded the war will start officially.

Interesting theory, what is the connection between the Russian invasion of Ukraine and the hostilities in the M/E?

I suppose one link is the Russian support of the Houthis.

The Iran-Russia axis with Chinese support for the Xi Multiple Pole world they so desperately want to usher in.

Yeah, I can see that.

Quote from: crazy canuck on November 18, 2024, 12:22:23 PM

Quote from: PJL on November 18, 2024, 11:49:57 AM

Quote from: crazy canuck on November 18, 2024, 11:25:23 AMHasn't a global conflict already started in the M/E?

I'd argue it started with Ukraine. Israel/Gaza is merely the second front. Once Taiwan gets invaded the war will start officially.

Interesting theory, what is the connection between the Russian invasion of Ukraine and the hostilities in the M/E?

I suppose one link is the Russian support of the Houthis.

Hamas bigwigs were also in Moscow just before, during or shortly after October 7th, iirc. A timing which basically signalled that Putin knew about it given that he was the biggest beneficiary of the shift in focus of attention of western media and politics.

With Taiwan it's about too windows overlapping.
Ukraine revealed the US to be unprepared... And trump coming in will make that even worse.
But at the same time China isn't prepared yet either. Ukraine also showed the vulnerability of navies and dominance of drones.

I suppose with Xis age too, the late Trump era is possible there....

Quote from: celedhring on November 18, 2024, 08:35:41 AMTaiwan still seems a few years away, so I voted the Balkans. The whole situation in Kosovo has been heating up for a while now.

I don't think it will lead to global conflict though.

I worry about Bosnia - I could definitely see Srpska trying to declare independence and the breakup of Bosnia. And there are some very pro-Serb types around Trump.

I'm reminded of a friend who worked in Bosnia and, working for an international organisation went every year for the international community's commemoration of Srebenica. Srebenica is in Srpska and he said that on the drive there from Sarajevo most houses would put up a picture of Radovan Karadzic in the windows. And that the expectation of basically everyone in the international community that it was a matter of when not if there'd be another civil war.

On Taiwan I remember reading that US figures thought it would happen in 2027 - don't know if that still holds.

Quote from: DGuller on November 18, 2024, 11:12:25 AMThe Middle East is always a safe choice.  Iran has been almost in open warfare already, and that was with Biden.  Not hard to imagine things escalating further, especially if the hardliners in Israel perceive a limited time opportunity to change facts on the ground in a major way.

But when's the last time the Middle East sparked conflict anywhere else? Perhaps part of the reason it has so much conflict is precisely that it is important but not that important to everyone else? Central but peripheral?

I always worry about nukes. I think it's crazy how little we think/worry about them compared to other existential threats. I feel like the risk of humans using a massive destructive force we already have shouldn't be under-rated.

Although good to see Biden and Xi commit to not use AI in their nuclear weapons systems :ph34r:

Quote from: Sheilbh on November 18, 2024, 03:51:54 PMAlthough good to see Biden and Xi commit to not use AI in their nuclear weapons systems :ph34r:

I wouldn't trust the Chinese to keep their word. The CCP lies about everything

(https://live.staticflickr.com/5071/7216044570_08f8e99986_w.jpg)

When was the last time a global war started in the mid-east?

It's been a risk for decades - but that it actually happened?  I'm struggling to think of something since the Crusades.

Even WWI - which did take place in part in the Middle East's Ottoman territories - did not start there.

Edit: I could (as always) be wrong - I just can't think of anything else.

Thankfully the number of past global wars is not statistically significant, so we can hardly assume that history can tell us much about where the next global war will break out.

Quote from: Zanza on November 18, 2024, 05:27:51 PMThankfully the number of past global wars is not statistically significant, so we can hardly assume that history can tell us much about where the next global war will break out.

How many "global wars" have their been?

WWI
WWII
(of course)

beyond that though - I don't think any way has literally involved the entire earth.  So lets just think of wars that involved multiple continents?

Napoleonic Wars
Seven Years War
Mongol conquests
Crusades

Global War on Terror?



So I mean a global war breaking out because of the middle east is more likely than one because of South America, but I still don't know if it's a likely flashpoint.

The Middle East was the subject and battlefield for dozens and dozens of major multi-continental wars going back to the Bronze Age. Not sure what you are getting at there BB.

Never forget Kadesh!

Global warming wiping out a city. One wet bulb day from killing five digits in Pakistan or India.

What will happen?

Things will get shittier, in waves of shit that keep on coming.  There will be no end to the shit cycle.

Quote from: jimmy olsen on November 18, 2024, 09:58:44 PMGlobal warming wiping out a city. One wet bulb day from killing five digits in Pakistan or India.

Climate change is the easy go to for all many disasters nowadays, even when overpopulation, bad infrastructure, corruption or just human error are just as valid a reason.

Quote from: Crazy_Ivan80 on November 19, 2024, 01:14:54 AM

Quote from: jimmy olsen on November 18, 2024, 09:58:44 PMGlobal warming wiping out a city. One wet bulb day from killing five digits in Pakistan or India.

Climate change is the easy go to for all many disasters nowadays, even when overpopulation, bad infrastructure, corruption or just human error are just as valid a reason.

Sure. Obviously only weather disasters that have a clear link to rising temperatures would be the only ones that would qualify for climate change. Not sure how overpopulation, bad infrastructure, corruption, or human error would do that...I mean besides their contribution to climate change.

Quote from: Maladict on November 18, 2024, 08:09:23 AMTime for an appropriately gloomy poll. Which of the above do you think will happen first?

I had 'breakup of NATO' and 'breakup of EU' listed too at first, but they hit a little too close to home.  :(

Global conflict in the Middle East.

Iran has attacked a Canadian citizen so it's serious now.  j/k


Raz posted an opinion piece to the effect that Israel sees itself on an holy mission to rid the Middle East of all Evil and the new US administration certainly wants to teach Iran a lesson.

Missile strikes is a very real possibility.  Some botched operation leading to the death of US soldiers by the incompetence of this administration.  Rise in Iran sponsored terrorism.  More retaliation. 
Arab citizens are driven by the religious fervor or radical cleric join in a holy crusade. Israel finds a pretext to attack another nation.  War finally erupts with other nations engulfed even if they wanted to stay out of it.

Meanwhile, Ukraine is betrayed by the US after the promise of new weapons shipments and peace settlements, Russia gets new support from China and North Korea, crush the country and starts an aggressive move toward another NATO country, likely Poland.  US does nothing.  Europe has to fight alone and is not ready for WW3.  US/President Trump betrays intelligence secret to Russia and North Korea.

Quote from: Crazy_Ivan80 on November 19, 2024, 01:14:54 AM

Quote from: jimmy olsen on November 18, 2024, 09:58:44 PMGlobal warming wiping out a city. One wet bulb day from killing five digits in Pakistan or India.

Climate change is the easy go to for all many disasters nowadays, even when overpopulation, bad infrastructure, corruption or just human error are just as valid a reason.

High temperature, high humidity conditions can kill anyone without access to air conditioning.

https://www.reuters.com/business/environment/how-is-climate-change-driving-dangerous-wet-bulb-temperatures-2023-08-09/

But a whole city?

I guess no one had SK Presidential Coup on their bingo card.

SK traditionally had an authoritarian streak until recently. Guess they want to go back to their old tricks.

Quote from: Valmy on December 03, 2024, 12:19:21 PMSK traditionally had an authoritarian streak until recently. Guess they want to go back to their old tricks.

They were also super poor. But I get economic collapse is a good way to increase birth rates, so there's that going for it.

Quote from: Valmy on December 03, 2024, 12:19:21 PMSK traditionally had an authoritarian streak until recently. Guess they want to go back to their old tricks.

Let's see what happens - it's 2:30 am in Korea right now.

Opposition legislators already gathered at their parliament, it's unclear what the military is going to do.

Quote from: HVC on December 03, 2024, 12:27:58 PM

Quote from: Valmy on December 03, 2024, 12:19:21 PMSK traditionally had an authoritarian streak until recently. Guess they want to go back to their old tricks.

They were also super poor. But I get economic collapse is a good way to increase birth rates, so there's that going for it.

I had to look it up - SK finally got rid of a military dictatorship for good in 1988.  That's roughly around the time they also had huge increases in their standard of living, but also recent enough many people will have some memory of life under dictatorship.

I can't see the Korean people going along with this - but I'm no expert.

I don't have sources for this.

QuoteRailway and Subway Union: "Strike tomorrow as planned... We will not yield to martial law" The National Education Public Service Headquarters has also announced a general strike the day after tomorrow.

The Public Transport Workers' Union of the Korean Confederation of Trade Unions issued a statement today (the 4th) stating, "We will continue to strike against the regime that declared martial law," and "We will not yield to unjustified martial law."

The Public Transport Workers' Union criticized, "Martial law is a measure that is only possible in extreme situations such as wartime or an incident under Article 77 of the Constitution," and "Yoon Seok-yeol's decision is an act that seriously threatens constitutional values and the basic principles of democracy, and is causing anxiety and confusion among the people." They also said, "The people will not forgive the Yoon Seok-yeol regime for pushing national order to the brink."

If negotiations with management ultimately fail, the Public Transport Workers' Union plans to go on an indefinite general strike tomorrow at the Railway Workers' Union and the day after tomorrow (the 6th) at the Seoul Transportation Corporation 1st and 3rd unions.

QuoteMetal Workers' Union, issued a statement faster than anyone else

Resist, the Metal Workers' Union is at the forefront. Yoon Seok-yeol declared martial law on the 3rd. From now on, the Metal Workers' Union will be at the forefront of resistance. This country is a democracy built with the blood of senior workers and the people. A dictator named Yoon Seok-yeol is trying to swallow democracy whole. He wants to turn back time to a dictatorial military regime. Yoon Seok-yeol's martial law declared after 45 years is an unconstitutional riot.

The Korean Metal Workers' Union takes the lead in the resistance called by Yoon Seok-yeol. I'm not afraid. Even if we are gagged, they will not close our mouths, if we are shackled, we will not stop walking, and if you hit us with a baton, we will not go quiet. We are metal workers, a democratic union that has fought for democracy in this land. The Metal Workers' Union convenes emergency meetings at each level and sets organizational guidelines. The 190,000 metal unions will protect democracy through struggle.

Very unexpected :blink:

On union activity in Korea, really enjoyed Mater 2-10 by Hwang Sok-yong a lot of which is about union militants.

Wow, widespread condemnation of a leader trying to seize absolute power?

I wonder what it's like living in a country with such a strong pro-democracy sentiment.

Quote from: HisMajestyBOB on December 03, 2024, 01:34:16 PMWow, widespread condemnation of a leader trying to seize absolute power?

I wonder what it's like living in a country with such a strong pro-democracy sentiment.

If you ask social media you will receive the racist answer of "no KFC people".

What do I expect? The Spanish Inquisition, of course.  :sleep:

Quote from: Eddie Teach on December 04, 2024, 04:22:57 PMWhat do I expect? The Spanish Inquisition, of course.  :sleep:

 :huh:  No one expects the Spanish Inquisition!

Bet none of you thought the Assad regime would have collapsed before the year is done.

Quote from: Tamas on December 09, 2024, 07:35:11 AMBet none of you thought the Assad regime would have collapsed before the year is done.

Nope!

But then again I've said this about places like Russia or Iran - it's impossible to predict a date, but you can see the rot, and collapse will always seem like it's never going to happen - right up until the moment when it does.