Poll
I don't think there has been SS candidates since the 1970s, but they were quite rife back then. Usually for the FDP or the CSU.
"We were just soldiers". Yeah, sure. :rolleyes:
When has Hugo Boss ever gone wrong? :D
Check out Zoupa, moving to the right-of-center.
Not that you're wrong, mind you . . .
That was also my thought process.
Just waiting on the word from Putin.
Languish has always had that "She-Wolf of the SS" fetish.
Heh, looks I did pay just enough attention to get enough of them right. :)
Well, since no shown candidate is filling Dyanne Thorne's... shoes it will remain just a fantasy I guess. :P
I mean, aren't you voting based on looks & if you would like to see the candidates naked?
Ilsa! :contract: :D
Actually, the (even more) hardcore wing of that party, Der Flügel, lost to the less extremist wing.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Der_Flügel (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Der_Fl%C3%BCgel)
It all started, however, as party of university professors opposed to the single currency and common economic policy. Thanks to Merkel, they found a much more profitable niche.
Back to Alice Weidel, she seems pretty good at the oecumenical dialogue and reconciliation efforts between Protestants and Catholics in Germany:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Alice_Weidel (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Alice_Weidel)
But the fascists are supposed to be ridiculous looking men. :(
Tried to warn you :)
Kalbitz being banned from the AfD is wishful thinking then I guess.
So 1990s of you
https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/ckg36pp6dpyo
Not much movement, no big surprises so far, surveys are fairly static. Will be tough to form government after the election.
Yeah I could get behind that.
I'd say Adenauer but he still has a few more weeks to serve out his term as US President.
A Hansmeister posting ?!?
I have to admit I'm unfamiliar with Strauss. QUickly googling him I find him to be an interesting right-wing mid-century German politician, but not quite sure of Hans's fascination.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Franz_Josef_Strauss
Didn't know you were Bavarian - I guess that makes sense.
Anyways hope you stick around a bit!
Well, technically Sudetendeutscher, my family were refugees.
I'll think I'll stick around a bit, my life has taken some interesting turns since retiring from the Army 9 years ago.
Well that's reassuring. :unsure:
I don't know why but I tried to listen to their stream and I landed in a 10 minute monologue of Elon talking about settling Mars. :nerd: :pinch:
But I did give her CV a look.
She is a highly intelligent, very high human capital person. :hmm: Certainly way above her median voter. In fact she sounds like a CDU voter disgusted with the "refugee" Muslim biomass enshittifying all the largest urban spaces in Germany since the days of Mutti.
Alice Weidel (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Alice_Weidel)
:D
The thing is - if Musk believes that (or more to the point - that the Russians believe that) - then it's not a stalemate. It's a war of attrition that Russia is winning.
So short of a Ukrainian surrender - why would Russia agree to a negotiated peace?
Your dehumanising choice of words is rather disgusting.
To decide to move, the new place only has to be better.
This concept seems to have a certain hold on the fringe in Norway as well. However, in the mainstream parties, and I include the Progress Party and the formerly Maoist Rødt (Red) among them, immigration is being discussed by referring to crime rate rather than people. In our very peculiar Norwegian-ness, high violent crime rates are called "a Swedish situation". :uffda:
Violent crime, as in shivving and some more or less targeted shootings, has become more visible, and make for better copy than tax evasion. The rather non-stance the prosecutors in Norway adapted on drug crime by not prosecuting, but still not legalising or decriminalising say marihuana, heroin or coke does create a competitive environment for young entrepreneurs willing to take a lot of risk. Such as having their heads blown off or their families targeted by other entrepreneurs wanting to increase their share of the market.
Coke is everywhere.
I blame this
https://youtube.com/watch?v=1VM2eLhvsSM&si=KCCwH5q-ieGoqzqD
Seems that German politics, like US politics, is increasingly configured around the degree to which different political factions are influenced by or resistant to, FSB propaganda and manipulation.
It does seem that way, that mass immigration facilitates fascism and the only real counter is to limit it to some extent. The more successful the left is in promoting immigration the better the prospects for the far right.
The never-Trumps are real, and indeed you saw prominent Republicans campaigning for Harris, and Trump's votes being lackluster in places. But it's fiendishly hard for incumbents to win right now, with global economic conditions turning against most people, and that's ignoring the fact that the people running against Trump were medically incompetent and then the most unpopular major candidate in living memory.
On the other hand: if any proposal you make becomes beyond the pale because the afd might vote for it then you might as well stop with politics because you just gave the party the blocking strategy
The ÖVP tried to poach voters from FPÖ by co-opting their policies and moving further to the right. All it did was push their voters to FPÖ.
You weren't living when Trump (the most unpopular candidate in US history (as far back as the polls go) ran in 2016, 2020, and 2024? When Hillary Clinton ran in 2016?
Harris was underwater by 2 points on election day 2024, Trump by over 8. It wasn't candidate popularity that decided that election.
Where have all the FDRs and Churchills gone?
I do think the Conservatives are correct to some extent. Some of the policies of the extreme right must be co-opted in order to weaken their voter base. As I said that seemed to work out in Denmark.
Maybe the progs are far more powerful in Europe than here, but canceling never really worked against anybody of any significance. All it usually did was bully minor figures, usually other progressive ones.
The only way to "beat" them is to become them?
Wouldn't solve the problem of incompatible cultures. Mass migration of people that hate our culture and society doesn't work
If the choices are:
1) Give up on the rule of law and give up on democracy to embrace bigotry dialled up to 8 or 9; and
2) Maintain the rule of law and our democracy, and accept bigotry dialled up to 5;
Then I can see the logic in opting for 2), even if my values are for bigotry to be dialled down to 0. Even more so if option 2) also comes with better policies on the environment, for workers, international relations, education, the economy, consumer protection, and so on.
That said, it's probably easier to manage in a proportional representation environment than in a first past the post one.
If there's a rise in bigotry among the population - or of non-bigoted concerns that can be leveraged by bigots - to such a degree that it drives politics in a democracies, I'd rather that be incorporated and dealt with democratically than that it becomes a tool for Fascists to overthrow democracy.
It's not ideal, obviously, but if there's a spectrum of possible outcomes I think going for the least bad one is preferable.
Though - of course - maintaining democracy and our rule of law while dialling bigotry down is the best outcome from my perspective.
I'd suggest one's state is pretty shitty if those are the only two options. Sacrifice some to save the many?
Not exactly. But this issue is fueling their power, it needs to be removed from them.
I don't think you necessarily have to be far right to limit immigration. And, like I said, there is also the immigrants that are currently inside the country to consider. As political pressure heats up against immigrants, reducing further immigration might be necessary to safeguard their future.
Is not being able to immigrate to a country a death sentence? In what way are they being sacrificed?
Sure in a world where the human rights of the individual took precedence, then the right to move anywhere one desired would take precedence over the power of nations. But that isn't the world we live in. I don't think anybody just expects every country to freely accept them moving there.
If the UK had decided not to let you stay there, sure that would have sucked for you, but hardly a crime against humanity surely.
Isn't that what happened in Denmark where the main parties successfully incorporated tougher stances on immigration and thus managed to maintain the far-right at bay?
We do seem to be trending in a pretty shitty direction, yeah.
But I guess there are two other directions:
3) Stand tall against the tide of Fascism and beat it back while remaining true to our principles.
It's obviously preferable, but if it's not working then it's IMO worthwhile reexamining the strategy... even if the conclusion is to double down.
What do you think we should do?
Yes. And I hated it.
But so far it seems to have worked, and the far right is fairly splintered at the moment. Anti-immigration sentiment is not a galvanizing issue to overthrow the political order, as I understand the politics of Denmark at the moment. It's still an issue, but just one of several.
Ok what is the principle involved? I figured that the reason we support immigration is because it is good for the country. Bring in more workers and enrich the country with new cultural influences. But if immigration becomes bad for the country, it empowers far right political forces or suppresses wages or whatever, then immigration should be limited. Right? Or is there some reason immigration should be embraced regardless of whether or not it is otherwise good for the country? Like the principle of the free movement of labor?
That's what we've seen in Canada. There was a partisan consensus for many years that immigration was good for Canada. The only party that was anti-immigrant was the very fringe PPC which has no seats.
Until it became a financial issue. There's now the sense that allowing 500k new Canadians per year was driving up housing prices and driving down wages, and now I think all parties agree that immigration levels need to be lower.
I don't think it is limited to the economic issue. We still need immigration to bolster our population growth. Where Canada went wrong is the structure of our immigration system. I have pointed to the investigative journalism the Globe did in the recent past in other posts. The problem was that we thought we had a system which reduced the age of our population, but we actually did the reverse. Add to that the abuses with student visas, and the ground upon which the consensus was built becomes very shaky.
I've seen online comments that talked very positively about our points-based immigration system - and I always want to say (and sometimes do) "you know that's not how most new Canadians enter the country - it's either family reunification or on student visas".
Yeah exactly.
I thought, and still do, that properly administered it was the correct policy. People often think about family reunification as bringing a parent into Canada. That is helpful because it helps with childcare and support of the family unit. But as always the devil is in the detail. Reunification with parents became reunification with aunts and uncles. And that is how our population rapidly aged rather than making our population younger.
There is a whole inadequate and expensive industry devoted to childcare. Bringing in parents to add a productive person to the workforce is well worth whatever costs there might be. Also, the enormity of the cost you are talking about is more than offsets the types of government expenditures that will be required to provide subsidized daycare.
Childcare has been in short supply for at least the last 30 years, outside Quebec. Maybe longer, but I can only speak to what I know about from first hand experience.
I don't think point 1 is necessarily bad. Point 2 is where all the mischief has occurred. The idea of young ambitious people becoming educated and staying in Canada is exactly what the system was supposed to do. But that is not what happened. Instead we got a bunch of people in on student visas (who were not necessarily young and who were not being educated) and who, once they obtained their Canadian citizenship after obtaining a fraudulent diploma from a diploma mill, brought over their parents, uncles and aunts. All of which considerably contributed to the greying of our population.
As I argued with Neil, I think a good case can be made for parents.
Well, yes. The way we are going now, certainly. But I have some hope that our economic policies will change so that life becomes comfortable (affordable) enough for couples to have children again.
The height of Canadian birth rates was during the good times of the late 50s and 60s. Birth rates in the 70s declined a bit, but if we can get back to what, for some reason, is remembered as the bad old days, I would think that was a considerable improvement.
I appreciate that the expense of childcare was a problem for you, but an immigrant bringing in their parents incurs costs in healthcare and income support that would be higher than subsidizing childcare, especially since you have to spend the money on childcare in any event.
Solution to what? Neil and I are talking about what would be the solution to not having adequate child care. Although Neil rejects the premise that we have inadequate child care.
I am not really aware of whether there are countries that banned contraceptives and whether that turned around reproductive rates. Even a place like Afghanistan under the Taleban had falling birth rates. Iran had a small bump in the early 1980s when they introduced their theocracy, but it fell rapidly from the mid-80s.
Sorry. To demographics.
Oh, yeah certainly not a solution to demographics. A lot goes into that solution, including a properly functioning immigration system. But a side point is that the reason we allow young educated workers to immigrate is so that they will contribute to the workforce, so it is not logical to create disincentives for them to work when they have children and there is no available child care.
I don't wish to be disrespectful, but hormonal birth control was only introduced in 1960, which goes a long way to explain high birth rates in the 1950s and 1960s (when it was only just becoming normalized). It's also associated with wide-spread vaccination - in earlier decades you still had high birth rates, but equally high infant death rates.
Immigration is a useful stop-gap for low birth rates in the West, but as pointed out that's all it is.
Women's rights, subsidized child care, "baby bonuses" - all seem to have fairly minor effects on total fertility.
We just seem to have developed a culture that does not value raising children, and it's seen as purely optional. I have no idea how we change that.
My wife is one of three sisters. Each of them had three kids in turn. Now my kids, and my younger sister-in-law's kids, are too young to be having babies. But my older sister-in-law's kids (I can call her that - she's 7 days older than me) are in their 20s and 30s, and honestly with almost zero prospect of them having kids - either naturally, through adoption, or whatever. Almost all of their friends have no kids. It's just not something they seem to even consider.
I do have to say that as much as I just downplayed the cost of childcare - the cost of childcare is huge.
When our kids were younger we went through all the options - we did daycare, we did a nanny, and eventually my wife stayed home to run a dayhome for ours and other kids. We did the dayhome because her salary (and she's not a lawyer or anything but is a college graduate) went 80-90% to childcare costs.
The thing is though - having kids is really expensive. Even if you zero out the cost of childcare specifically - you need a larger home, food, clothes, and just the time and effort involved.
I don't see how raising kids would ever make sense - from a purely economic perspective. Even in the "who will look after you when you're old", surely the answer is to save money then hire caregivers when you're old.
It has to be something in the culture that makes us value children above and beyond the cost.
It's actually pretty damn bad.
I don't know if you're right about that, but I guess we (or our near descendants) will find out one way or the other.
Yeah it is not just a culture but an entire economic structure. Kids are expensive and everything associated with them is expensive. Plus there is tons of responsibility. And very little services and support outside of public schools which are a crapshoot depending on where you live. They could be great, and a wonderful asset to you as a parent, or they could be total garbage and another thing you have to struggle with.
So expect large expenses, lots of stress and hard work, and very little support. With nothing really in return besides the warm fuzzy feelings you get and even that is problematic because parenting is supposed to be done with the welfare of the kids in mind, not so you get warm fuzzies. Now I have very little interest in my family just being a bunch of olds as I age towards the sweet release of death so I will shoulder these burdens but I can certainly see people looking at this and thinking "yeah, no thanks." Life is tough enough just covering your own needs.
I wasn't around back when each woman had an average of four children so I don't know how things were back then or what those incentives were. But it can be a pretty thankless job these days.
The only thing worse is a demographic explosion.
(https://www.thelancet.com/cms/10.1016/S0140-6736(24)00550-6/asset/bdd0a7fd-bf00-4b3f-a855-fd8e917fa69a/main.assets/gr1.jpg)
It's really striking but the world has been speed-running declines in birth rates that took rich European countries decades to achieve. I've no idea what this world looks like or if there's any "fix" to it.
I think it's slightly worrying that it is another area where Silicon Valley types have (terrifying) ideas.
(https://www.researchgate.net/publication/233955589/figure/fig1/AS:339751765856257@1458014541154/Map-of-the-21-GBD-regions-GBD-Global-Burden-of-Disease-Risk-Factors-and-Injuries.png)
Humanitarianism. Being nice to people. Improving people's lives.
Do you expect to have more?! :P
Whoops. I mean except.
Sure. But can we guarantee that would be the outcome for those immigrants if the far right takes over?
or for the host society even if extremists don't take over. It's not like immigrants leave their medieval ideas behind when they cross the border. Let in enough people that believe gays should be killed and your society will become like that.
You're right, that is tourism marketing at its finest.
:D
I don't think it's that simple. As Zanza says Die Linke had some infighting and a big split over Ukraine .
They're also pretty split on immigration - I'm sure none of them are pro mass immigration, what with that not being a thing.
Looking at polls it looks like Die Linke and BSW will gain some Bundestag seats. AFD will do better due to shy polls slightly behind CDU...
A) So basically Merz of CDU breaks the Brandmauer (firewall) and cooperates with AfD, sparking possible riots from the very worst people you could ever imagine aside from Islamists.
B) Merz forms a chaos rainbow coalition of 4 disagreeing deadlock parties, whose every action will be pure agony. The Brandmauer will be preserved. Hooray.... :shutup:
Not sure why neo-nazis would riot in such a scenario. :huh:
Me too some time ago. Voting from abroad is a bit of a hassle (have to declare my intent with the last Meldeamt I was registered at who then send me the mail voting stuff - no option to do any of this through the embassy <_< , rinse and repeat every federal election).
Participation in polling stations higher than last time - but that was during the pandemic.
"Hurray we won. We can do whatever we want now. Let's burn some Muslims"?
Will they have enough for a majority if FDP and BDW don't make it?
Yeah, extreme parties take roughly half the vote but everything is fine.
Alles klar. Alles in Ordnung!
Extremes that cancel each other out.
And the German Greens from what I've seen seem rather good except for the anti nuclear stuff.
Even the left, as disagreeable as you may find them, aren't anti democracy the way the fasc are.
BSW hasn't made it yet.
Even if they are not Nazis they have said things that suggest they are fans.
I did find it rather chilling that Thuringia was the first state they took power in, the exact place the Nazis first were elected to power.
What the hell is going on in Thuringia?
I didn't mean to imply AfD is for communist economics...just the authoritarian part.
In the past, wasn't SPD formally popular in the former East? How much are AfD voters really thinking about their economic platform, and more doing the one-issue thing on immigration/migrants (and significantly ignoring the economic part, much like our MAGA voters)?
Would be a good redemption arc
Do what the conservatives did 100 years ago and accept the Nazis into government because "we can control them". It's what the conservatives here in Finland did two years ago. :P
But what explains the more economic disadvantaged areas in the old West going left instead of right? Longer democratic tradition maybe? :hmm:
(https://www.bpb.de/cache/images/9/310309_article_side.jpg?835A1)
Similar to the broad coalition that brought Trump to power really.
The Bonapartist coalition! At least according to Marx.
The Left has a very popular young woman as front runner (Heidi Reichinnek). I guess she made the difference and could appeal better to young women than the top candidate for the Greens, a fifty plus man.
Did they succeed? Are they controlling them in Finland?
A few Communist holdouts left in Leipzig and Erfurt.
No. :P
Don't know why you keep repeating this when you must know it's untrue (I'm sure I've pointed that out to you).
The Midlands were the most Brexity parts of England, followed by the north-east and Yorkshire/Humber. London, teh south-east and the south-west were the least Brexity in England.
(https://ichef.bbci.co.uk/ace/standard/624/cpsprodpb/E7B6/production/_90081395_eu_ref_uk_regions_leave_remain_gra624.png.webp)
As you can tell from the name the Midlands are of course famously in the north. :mellow:
The point has also flown over your head here as you dredge up percentages.
58% of 1,340,698= 777,604.84
51.8% of 4,959,683= 2,529,438.33
The second is clearly bigger.
Although this also highlights why most of the money in the country should go to people down south as there are more people there and so per pound more efficient to invest in the south.
It would be silly to suggest it be totally flipped with no spending in the south, but even with the population imbalance, the current spending is too skewed.
Also worth noting the north may have fewer people but not too much less space- encouraging more business up here would help shift this population imbalance for everyone's benefit.
Bringing things back round to relevancy and Germany for instance, doing more to incorporate Berlin's hinterland would be positive, especially given their dire housing situation.
I did and it basically just matches the same ratio of people who voted in north vs south. Anyway, I haven't heard many blame the North narratives but more blame England narratives.
That's like saying England's more Catholic than the Republic of Ireland because there are a greater number of catholics in England. Or that South Sudan is richer than Monaco.
Your the one that said that the "fascists" come from "down south". I didn't blame the north for Brexit. I blame Boris, Farage, the press, Corbyn, Cameron and the crappiness of the remain campaign.
If the Papacy was a democracy and only England and Ireland had Catholics then there being more Catholics in England would be a very pertinent point in picking the next pope.
You do know I live in Newcastle right?
The Midlands are south of here.
And I said most of. Not all.
But you misunderstand it: Voting with the AfD is not the problem. It only becomes a problem when you cannot find sufficient support for your policy among the democratic parties and have to rely on the fascists to pass a law. If the AfD votes for something that has already sufficient support from other parties, it is gone if they join.
But I still don't get how that works - aren't you in effect ceding almost a reverse veto power to the AfD?
So there's an issue with say 50%+ public support for x policy. For good, principled, left-wing reasons the SPD, Greens and Die Linke oppose it. So the CDU - and mainstream politics - in effect can't do x. Isn't you basically giving the AfD the ability to monopolise that issue (with 50%+ support)? I mean to me that just seems to give them vastly too much power for a minority party to dictate politics but also it plays into their narrative.
Obviously practically you couldn't do that with a coalition deal with the other parties (and I fully get not having them in a coalition). So you can't address that issue under a coalition agreement - but I think you have to acknowledge that is creating space and opportunity for the AfD so need to have a solution to address it.
There is no concept of minority government and looking for votes on each particular issue. It theoretically works, but there is almost no chance to pass a budget then.
Heh. I remember when my district was represented by SPD (Cornelie Wolgast-Sonntag) via direct vote, plus CDU (Dietrich Austermann) and FDP (Jürgen Koppelin) who all ran in my district in 2002, with the losers getting in through their party lists. :D
Well maybe that is why he wants to try to find some common ground with the AfD so he can count on their votes on some things.
Fuck.
It grew, especially during the first Trump term, but far away from 2%:
(https://www.wirtschaftundschule.de/files/_processed_/b/a/csm_Verteidigungsausgaben_0dd8856fce.jpg)
This might be totally wrong and could all fall apart but I'm encouraged by Merz so far. I think it's bold that he raised a need for talks with the UK and France on nuclear immediately after Vance's speech and before the election even happened. I think doing this with a lame duck Bundestag is arguably challenging democratically but definitely bold and probably the right thing.
But what really made me wonder about this was I listened to a podcast with Adam Tooze today - that was recorded and came out several weeks ago. So it was just after Vance's speech (I think it might have even been before the election or possibly a day or two after). Part of it was talking about defence but then also Germany's economy and as Tooze pointed out lots of focus is on "competitiveness" which is not Germany's problem and is, in fact, a response to the weakness in Germany's economy which is investment. He said that Merz had started talking about "investment" during the election campaign but framed that as private sector investment which would be nowhere near adequate - I think he said studies on this indicate Germany needs about €500 billion of investment in things other than defence which will require the state. He said he thinks Merz "profoundly" gets the issues with Germany's economy on that lack of investment and was perhaps being political because during an election campaign investment = debt = bad.
But as a huge critic of the debt brake and the impact that has on necessary spending, it was really interesting hearing that a few days after Merz proposes a way to resolve the debt brake issue for defence and a €500 billion infrastructure spending fund.
It is very early days. He's not even in office yet. And I get that the vibes about him are bad. But I slightly wonder if there's a Nixon goes to China thing here? it takes a conservative, very West German, bone-deep Atlanticist Christian Democrat to do things like talk seriously about the US as a non-reliable partner requiring a European alternative, to overcome the fiscal fetish and also to set up the investment required? Basically despite the bad vibes these moves indicate someone who is engaging with the reality Merkel spent her entire Chancellorship ignoring, despite impeccable "leader of the free world" vibes. It also feels like it should be a lot easier because BSW just fell short of 5% so a two party coalition is do-able.
Separately I mentioned in the other thread that I didn't see any reason to think Europe was likely to snap out of its stagnation - I think military spending could do that. Like post-war America, basically a type of military Keynesianism - but it will take a commitment (which I know the French push but others are less keen on) on spending for domestic manufacturing. How Europe squares that with its energy challenges and decarbonisation goals is going to be a huge challenge though.
On the election - just looking at the results by party, it'll be interesting to see how the West/East divide plays out as this seems (and the alternative Kenya coalition is the same) very much a Western coalition while the East mainly voted for AfD, Die Linke and BSW:
https://www.theguardian.com/world/ng-interactive/2025/feb/23/german-election-2025-results-in-full-live
(Totally separate and on the East/West divide - I wonder why some areas historic experience left them deeply opposed to and fearful of Russia like the Baltics and the Poles while elsewhere there's more openness like East Germany, Slovakia and, for me most extaoardinarily, Hungary? :hmm:)
Edit: Also on the Nixon goes to China - I think he's indicated support for EU debt to support on defence but wants it spent at a European level (which I think is a better choice) rather than through national governments.
Napoleon nods approvingly, as the enlarged Confederation of the Rhine, having absorbed the Prussian remnants, girds itself to confront the neo-Tsarist horde.
Question: Who do you vote for?
Option 1: 
votes: 3
votes: 3
Option 2: 
votes: 5
votes: 5
Option 3: 
votes: 3
votes: 3
Option 4: 
votes: 7
votes: 7
Option 5: 
votes: 7
votes: 7
Option 6: 
votes: 3
votes: 3
Title: German Federal Election 23rd February 2025
Post by: Zanza on November 12, 2024, 02:53:24 PM
Post by: Zanza on November 12, 2024, 02:53:24 PM
The German federal government lost its majority in parliament last week after disagreement between the Social Democrat chancellor Scholz and the Liberal finance minister Lindner on additional government debt to finance economic policy and Ukraine aid.
The only way to trigger elections in Germany before the regular date is the chancellor losing a motion of confidence in parliament and then asking the president to dissolve parliament.
The remaining government faction and the main opposition faction agreed on that now and the next federal election will be on 23rd February 2025.
The only way to trigger elections in Germany before the regular date is the chancellor losing a motion of confidence in parliament and then asking the president to dissolve parliament.
The remaining government faction and the main opposition faction agreed on that now and the next federal election will be on 23rd February 2025.
Title: Re: German Federal Election 23rd February 2025
Post by: Barrister on November 12, 2024, 03:42:58 PM
Post by: Barrister on November 12, 2024, 03:42:58 PM
There were times where I knew at least some of the German politicians (think Merkel, Schroeder - heck going back to Kohl) but I know none of these people.
Picks are all really tight on the face, so hard to judge who is the "right-wing non-crazy candidate".
I definitely have voted for women candidates before on these picture polls, and not on the "who is hottest" criteria. Thankfully I don't think we have to worry about that here. Of the women, #5 gives a very crunchy "Green" vibe, with the short-hair and dangly earrings. So that leaves #4.
When it comes to men, I'm almost always the "suit and tie" guy. So that leaves #2 and #6. #2 gives off a kind of nerdy vibe with the glasses and balding head. But I'm kind of a nerdy guy myself (other than my thick luscious hair), whereas for #6 I don't know if this is cheating, or being mis-informed, but I'm pretty sure the orange tie signifies the social democrats.
So between #2 and #4? It's a coin flip. Let's go #4.
(and remember - I'm judging based on looks alone because that's the point of the exercise)
Picks are all really tight on the face, so hard to judge who is the "right-wing non-crazy candidate".
I definitely have voted for women candidates before on these picture polls, and not on the "who is hottest" criteria. Thankfully I don't think we have to worry about that here. Of the women, #5 gives a very crunchy "Green" vibe, with the short-hair and dangly earrings. So that leaves #4.
When it comes to men, I'm almost always the "suit and tie" guy. So that leaves #2 and #6. #2 gives off a kind of nerdy vibe with the glasses and balding head. But I'm kind of a nerdy guy myself (other than my thick luscious hair), whereas for #6 I don't know if this is cheating, or being mis-informed, but I'm pretty sure the orange tie signifies the social democrats.
So between #2 and #4? It's a coin flip. Let's go #4.
(and remember - I'm judging based on looks alone because that's the point of the exercise)
Title: Re: German Federal Election 23rd February 2025
Post by: The Minsky Moment on November 12, 2024, 04:10:46 PM
Post by: The Minsky Moment on November 12, 2024, 04:10:46 PM
Picking the most nattily dressed German is a dangerous game; going too far in that kind of thinking can lead to SS fanboyism.
Title: Re: German Federal Election 23rd February 2025
Post by: Crazy_Ivan80 on November 12, 2024, 04:11:46 PM
Post by: Crazy_Ivan80 on November 12, 2024, 04:11:46 PM
first one is of course Scholtz, second on is the CDU guy (Merz?)?. 3rd and 4th: dunno, 5th is i'm guessing Wagenknecht, and the last one has a Liberal vibe but that's just guessing.
So I'm guessing the 3rd and 4th are probably a Green and an AFD?
Given how the tides are turning I'd probably vote number 2, but stance on UA would matter: no help to kick the Russians back to their Gulag is no vote.
So I'm guessing the 3rd and 4th are probably a Green and an AFD?
Given how the tides are turning I'd probably vote number 2, but stance on UA would matter: no help to kick the Russians back to their Gulag is no vote.
Title: Re: German Federal Election 23rd February 2025
Post by: Josquius on November 12, 2024, 04:27:22 PM
Post by: Josquius on November 12, 2024, 04:27:22 PM
Lady with cannabis leaf necklace.
Title: Re: German Federal Election 23rd February 2025
Post by: Norgy on November 12, 2024, 04:32:01 PM
Post by: Norgy on November 12, 2024, 04:32:01 PM
We are all going to hell now, aren't we? The AfD will become the largest party and form some sort of coalition with the CDU/CSU.
All voted in on a "Let us really insert our cocks in Ukraine's arse" ticket.
All voted in on a "Let us really insert our cocks in Ukraine's arse" ticket.
Title: Re: German Federal Election 23rd February 2025
Post by: Norgy on November 12, 2024, 04:35:58 PM
Post by: Norgy on November 12, 2024, 04:35:58 PM
Quote from: The Minsky Moment on November 12, 2024, 04:10:46 PMPicking the most nattily dressed German is a dangerous game; going too far in that kind of thinking can lead to SS fanboyism.
I don't think there has been SS candidates since the 1970s, but they were quite rife back then. Usually for the FDP or the CSU.
"We were just soldiers". Yeah, sure. :rolleyes:
Title: Re: German Federal Election 23rd February 2025
Post by: crazy canuck on November 12, 2024, 05:04:26 PM
Post by: crazy canuck on November 12, 2024, 05:04:26 PM
Quote from: The Minsky Moment on November 12, 2024, 04:10:46 PMPicking the most nattily dressed German is a dangerous game; going too far in that kind of thinking can lead to SS fanboyism.
When has Hugo Boss ever gone wrong? :D
Title: Re: German Federal Election 23rd February 2025
Post by: Zoupa on November 12, 2024, 05:14:02 PM
Post by: Zoupa on November 12, 2024, 05:14:02 PM
Voted #2. Taurus missiles for Ukraine. IIRC Jos, cannabis necklace lady is a nazi. Fyi.
Title: Re: German Federal Election 23rd February 2025
Post by: viper37 on November 12, 2024, 05:18:00 PM
Post by: viper37 on November 12, 2024, 05:18:00 PM
Voted for the first lady, the well dressed one without a pagan necklace. She's got to be right wing without being completely nuts.
The last dude looks far right.
The last dude looks far right.
Title: Re: German Federal Election 23rd February 2025
Post by: The Minsky Moment on November 12, 2024, 05:56:39 PM
Post by: The Minsky Moment on November 12, 2024, 05:56:39 PM
Quote from: Zoupa on November 12, 2024, 05:14:02 PMVoted #2. Taurus missiles for Ukraine. IIRC Jos, cannabis necklace lady is a nazi. Fyi.
Check out Zoupa, moving to the right-of-center.
Not that you're wrong, mind you . . .
Title: Re: German Federal Election 23rd February 2025
Post by: crazy canuck on November 12, 2024, 06:09:28 PM
Post by: crazy canuck on November 12, 2024, 06:09:28 PM
Quote from: viper37 on November 12, 2024, 05:18:00 PMVoted for the first lady, the well dressed one without a pagan necklace. She's got to be right wing without being completely nuts.
The last dude looks far right.
That was also my thought process.
Title: Re: German Federal Election 23rd February 2025
Post by: Norgy on November 12, 2024, 06:38:22 PM
Post by: Norgy on November 12, 2024, 06:38:22 PM
So... when do we invade Poland? Anyone have a schedule?
Title: Re: German Federal Election 23rd February 2025
Post by: Josquius on November 12, 2024, 06:48:57 PM
Post by: Josquius on November 12, 2024, 06:48:57 PM
Quote from: Norgy on November 12, 2024, 06:38:22 PMSo... when do we invade Poland? Anyone have a schedule?
Just waiting on the word from Putin.
Title: Re: German Federal Election 23rd February 2025
Post by: Norgy on November 12, 2024, 06:52:55 PM
Post by: Norgy on November 12, 2024, 06:52:55 PM
Well, I am sure I am on his speed dial, so hey, ho, let's go.
Title: Re: German Federal Election 23rd February 2025
Post by: Admiral Yi on November 12, 2024, 09:19:32 PM
Post by: Admiral Yi on November 12, 2024, 09:19:32 PM
Voted 6. Least angry looking. Bald Poindexter is 2nd. #4 looks like the first female Bond villain.
Title: Re: German Federal Election 23rd February 2025
Post by: Zanza on November 13, 2024, 12:11:30 AM
Post by: Zanza on November 13, 2024, 12:11:30 AM
#1 is Olaf Scholz, the current chancellor, from the Social Democrats. This party has been in government for 22 of the last 26 years. The true conservative party closest to the status quo.
He is a poor communicator, was not able to reign in his coalition so they fought from day one. Has partial dementia about his role in a big tax heist when he was finance minister.
#2 is Friedrich Merz, Leader of the Conservatives. He was Merkel's big competitor in the early 2000s, but she won and he left for twenty years. He worked at Blackrock, earning millions, but still considering himself middle class. His policy is actually reactionary - go back to the 80s/90s. Almost certainly the next chancellor, but he will have a hard time to form a majority.
#3 is Robert Habeck, from the Greens, the woke party. They lost massively in popularity as people find climate change important, but are not willing to pay for avoiding it. Also the Greens engage a lot into wokemess and are pro-refugees, which has become very unpopular. Himself a talented communicator, but could in the end not convince people.
#4 is Alice Weidel, leader of the AfD, the fascist party. The AfD is for authoritarian rule, against immigrants, likes Argentina's Milei's ideas about the economy and is pro-Putin. Unlike other such parties in Europe, they are not moderating to be able to govern, but rather move towards being a full-blown Nazi party. Their leader Weidel is a lesbian married to a migrant and lives in Switzerland.
#5 is Sarah Wagenknecht, her party is named after her and split off from the Left (former GDR ruling party) last year. Enigmatic program, but seems to confirm the horseshoe theory. Against immigrants, against American influence, pro-Putin, was founded by millionaires, but used to be a convinced Stalinist.
#6 is Christian Lindner, former Finance minister, of the Liberals. His party has a fetish for fiscal austerity, wants to lower taxes for the one percent and has very rarely still some other liberal ideas, e.g. on civil liberties. Very weakened, will probably not get into parliament anymore.
He is a poor communicator, was not able to reign in his coalition so they fought from day one. Has partial dementia about his role in a big tax heist when he was finance minister.
#2 is Friedrich Merz, Leader of the Conservatives. He was Merkel's big competitor in the early 2000s, but she won and he left for twenty years. He worked at Blackrock, earning millions, but still considering himself middle class. His policy is actually reactionary - go back to the 80s/90s. Almost certainly the next chancellor, but he will have a hard time to form a majority.
#3 is Robert Habeck, from the Greens, the woke party. They lost massively in popularity as people find climate change important, but are not willing to pay for avoiding it. Also the Greens engage a lot into wokemess and are pro-refugees, which has become very unpopular. Himself a talented communicator, but could in the end not convince people.
#4 is Alice Weidel, leader of the AfD, the fascist party. The AfD is for authoritarian rule, against immigrants, likes Argentina's Milei's ideas about the economy and is pro-Putin. Unlike other such parties in Europe, they are not moderating to be able to govern, but rather move towards being a full-blown Nazi party. Their leader Weidel is a lesbian married to a migrant and lives in Switzerland.
#5 is Sarah Wagenknecht, her party is named after her and split off from the Left (former GDR ruling party) last year. Enigmatic program, but seems to confirm the horseshoe theory. Against immigrants, against American influence, pro-Putin, was founded by millionaires, but used to be a convinced Stalinist.
#6 is Christian Lindner, former Finance minister, of the Liberals. His party has a fetish for fiscal austerity, wants to lower taxes for the one percent and has very rarely still some other liberal ideas, e.g. on civil liberties. Very weakened, will probably not get into parliament anymore.
Title: Re: German Federal Election 23rd February 2025
Post by: Admiral Yi on November 13, 2024, 12:16:53 AM
Post by: Admiral Yi on November 13, 2024, 12:16:53 AM
:punk:
Title: Re: German Federal Election 23rd February 2025
Post by: Maladict on November 13, 2024, 01:13:55 AM
Post by: Maladict on November 13, 2024, 01:13:55 AM
Great, so even Languish is voting fascist now.
Title: Re: German Federal Election 23rd February 2025
Post by: celedhring on November 13, 2024, 01:37:56 AM
Post by: celedhring on November 13, 2024, 01:37:56 AM
So all the girls are fascy? Damn, that limits my options. :(
I'll go green I guess. I recall they were pro-Ukraine.
I'll go green I guess. I recall they were pro-Ukraine.
Title: Re: German Federal Election 23rd February 2025
Post by: Tonitrus on November 13, 2024, 01:52:35 AM
Post by: Tonitrus on November 13, 2024, 01:52:35 AM
Quote from: Maladict on November 13, 2024, 01:13:55 AMGreat, so even Languish is voting fascist now.
Languish has always had that "She-Wolf of the SS" fetish.
Title: Re: German Federal Election 23rd February 2025
Post by: Crazy_Ivan80 on November 13, 2024, 02:07:01 AM
Post by: Crazy_Ivan80 on November 13, 2024, 02:07:01 AM
Quote from: Zanza on November 13, 2024, 12:11:30 AMThe listing...
Heh, looks I did pay just enough attention to get enough of them right. :)
Title: Re: German Federal Election 23rd February 2025
Post by: Syt on November 13, 2024, 02:07:26 AM
Post by: Syt on November 13, 2024, 02:07:26 AM
Except Habeck I find all the persons shown there reprehensible in one way or other.
Title: Re: German Federal Election 23rd February 2025
Post by: Zanza on November 13, 2024, 10:57:36 AM
Post by: Zanza on November 13, 2024, 10:57:36 AM
Quote from: Syt on November 13, 2024, 02:07:26 AMExcept Habeck I find all the persons shown there reprehensible in one way or other.Same.
Title: Re: German Federal Election 23rd February 2025
Post by: Barrister on November 13, 2024, 11:19:25 AM
Post by: Barrister on November 13, 2024, 11:19:25 AM
Well shit. I deduced completely wrong.
Title: Re: German Federal Election 23rd February 2025
Post by: Duque de Bragança on November 13, 2024, 11:25:03 AM
Post by: Duque de Bragança on November 13, 2024, 11:25:03 AM
Quote from: Tonitrus on November 13, 2024, 01:52:35 AMQuote from: Maladict on November 13, 2024, 01:13:55 AMGreat, so even Languish is voting fascist now.
Languish has always had that "She-Wolf of the SS" fetish.
Well, since no shown candidate is filling Dyanne Thorne's... shoes it will remain just a fantasy I guess. :P
Title: Re: German Federal Election 23rd February 2025
Post by: Grey Fox on November 13, 2024, 11:26:14 AM
Post by: Grey Fox on November 13, 2024, 11:26:14 AM
Quote from: Maladict on November 13, 2024, 01:13:55 AMGreat, so even Languish is voting fascist now.
I mean, aren't you voting based on looks & if you would like to see the candidates naked?
Title: Re: German Federal Election 23rd February 2025
Post by: viper37 on November 13, 2024, 02:00:04 PM
Post by: viper37 on November 13, 2024, 02:00:04 PM
Quote from: Zanza on November 13, 2024, 12:11:30 AM#4 is Alice Weidel, leader of the AfD, the fascist party.Frack me!
Title: Re: German Federal Election 23rd February 2025
Post by: Habbaku on November 13, 2024, 02:16:34 PM
Post by: Habbaku on November 13, 2024, 02:16:34 PM
I knew who all but one of them were, so made my vote in an informed manner. :pickelhaube:
Title: Re: German Federal Election 23rd February 2025
Post by: Admiral Yi on November 13, 2024, 02:17:04 PM
Post by: Admiral Yi on November 13, 2024, 02:17:04 PM
I was hoping for some props for spotting Elsa. <_<
Title: Re: German Federal Election 23rd February 2025
Post by: Valmy on November 13, 2024, 02:20:03 PM
Post by: Valmy on November 13, 2024, 02:20:03 PM
The hard-core Nationalist lesbian living abroad is amazing. Euro politics are so weird.
Title: Re: German Federal Election 23rd February 2025
Post by: Duque de Bragança on November 13, 2024, 02:34:25 PM
Post by: Duque de Bragança on November 13, 2024, 02:34:25 PM
Quote from: Admiral Yi on November 13, 2024, 02:17:04 PMI was hoping for some props for spotting Elsa. <_<
Ilsa! :contract: :D
Title: Re: German Federal Election 23rd February 2025
Post by: Admiral Yi on November 13, 2024, 02:38:34 PM
Post by: Admiral Yi on November 13, 2024, 02:38:34 PM
:mad:
Title: Re: German Federal Election 23rd February 2025
Post by: Duque de Bragança on November 13, 2024, 02:39:21 PM
Post by: Duque de Bragança on November 13, 2024, 02:39:21 PM
Quote from: Valmy on November 13, 2024, 02:20:03 PMThe hard-core Nationalist lesbian living abroad is amazing. Euro politics are so weird.
Actually, the (even more) hardcore wing of that party, Der Flügel, lost to the less extremist wing.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Der_Flügel (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Der_Fl%C3%BCgel)
It all started, however, as party of university professors opposed to the single currency and common economic policy. Thanks to Merkel, they found a much more profitable niche.
Back to Alice Weidel, she seems pretty good at the oecumenical dialogue and reconciliation efforts between Protestants and Catholics in Germany:
QuoteReligion
At the end of 2017, Weidel accused the Catholic Church and the Protestant Church in Germany of "playing the same inglorious role that they played in the Third Reich", accusing both churches of being "thoroughly politicized" and stating that AfD is "the only Christian party that still exists" in Germany.[25] Such statements were dismissed by the Catholic German Bishops' Conference and the Evangelical Church as "polemics" and "derailment".[26]
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Alice_Weidel (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Alice_Weidel)
Title: Re: German Federal Election 23rd February 2025
Post by: Maladict on November 13, 2024, 03:10:19 PM
Post by: Maladict on November 13, 2024, 03:10:19 PM
Quote from: Grey Fox on November 13, 2024, 11:26:14 AMQuote from: Maladict on November 13, 2024, 01:13:55 AMGreat, so even Languish is voting fascist now.
I mean, aren't you voting based on looks & if you would like to see the candidates naked?
But the fascists are supposed to be ridiculous looking men. :(
Title: Re: German Federal Election 23rd February 2025
Post by: The Minsky Moment on November 13, 2024, 03:18:36 PM
Post by: The Minsky Moment on November 13, 2024, 03:18:36 PM
Quote from: Barrister on November 13, 2024, 11:19:25 AMWell shit. I deduced completely wrong.
Tried to warn you :)
Title: Re: German Federal Election 23rd February 2025
Post by: Zanza on November 13, 2024, 03:43:34 PM
Post by: Zanza on November 13, 2024, 03:43:34 PM
Quote from: Duque de Bragança on November 13, 2024, 02:39:21 PMWishful thinking. Bernd (or Björn as some say) Höcke is the grey eminence of the party and he is a full-blown national socialist.Quote from: Valmy on November 13, 2024, 02:20:03 PMThe hard-core Nationalist lesbian living abroad is amazing. Euro politics are so weird.
Actually, the (even more) hardcore wing of that party, Der Flügel, lost to the less extremist wing.
Title: Re: German Federal Election 23rd February 2025
Post by: Duque de Bragança on November 13, 2024, 04:39:43 PM
Post by: Duque de Bragança on November 13, 2024, 04:39:43 PM
Quote from: Zanza on November 13, 2024, 03:43:34 PMQuote from: Duque de Bragança on November 13, 2024, 02:39:21 PMWishful thinking. Bernd (or Björn as some say) Höcke is the grey eminence of the party and he is a full-blown national socialist.Quote from: Valmy on November 13, 2024, 02:20:03 PMThe hard-core Nationalist lesbian living abroad is amazing. Euro politics are so weird.
Actually, the (even more) hardcore wing of that party, Der Flügel, lost to the less extremist wing.
Kalbitz being banned from the AfD is wishful thinking then I guess.
Title: Re: German Federal Election 23rd February 2025
Post by: crazy canuck on November 13, 2024, 06:59:08 PM
Post by: crazy canuck on November 13, 2024, 06:59:08 PM
Quote from: Habbaku on November 13, 2024, 02:16:34 PMI knew who all but one of them were, so made my vote in an informed manner. :pickelhaube:
So 1990s of you
Title: Re: German Federal Election 23rd February 2025
Post by: Sheilbh on November 13, 2024, 07:03:38 PM
Post by: Sheilbh on November 13, 2024, 07:03:38 PM
I'm not really sure who's the best option here :bleeding:
I'd vote Green but not sure they're really helping atm. Bring back zombie Helmut Schmidt.
I'd vote Green but not sure they're really helping atm. Bring back zombie Helmut Schmidt.
Title: Re: German Federal Election 23rd February 2025
Post by: Zanza on December 16, 2024, 11:51:05 AM
Post by: Zanza on December 16, 2024, 11:51:05 AM
QuoteGerman Chancellor Olaf Scholz loses confidence vote
Olaf Scholz has been Germany's chancellor since 2021
German Chancellor Olaf Scholz has lost a vote of confidence in parliament, paving the way for early elections on 23 February.
Scholz called Monday's vote and had expected to lose it, but calculated that triggering an early election was his best chance of reviving his party's political fortunes.
It comes around two months after the collapse of Scholz's three-party coalition government, which left the embattled chancellor leading a minority administration.
Ahead of Monday's vote, Scholz said it would now be up to voters to "determine the political course of our country", teeing up what is likely to be a fiercely fought election campaign.
However, losing Monday's no-confidence vote was the outcome Scholz wanted.
Since his argumentative three-party governing coalition collapsed in November, he had been reliant on support from the opposition conservatives to pass any new laws, effectively rendering his administration a lame-duck government.
Given Germany's stalled economy and the global crises facing the West, staggering on until the scheduled election date of September 2025 risked being seen as irresponsible by the electorate.
Scholz's Social Democratic Party (SDP) is trailing heavily in opinion polls, while the conservative Christian Democratic Union (CDU) under Friedrich Merz appears to be on course for a return to government.
Opening the debate, Scholz said the snap election was an opportunity to set a new course for the country and called for "massive" investment, particularly in defence, while Merz said more debt would be a burden for younger generations and promised tax cuts.
'Kamikaze' move
Scholz's decision to stage a vote he expected to lose in order to dissolve his own government was described as a "kamikaze" move by German tabloid Bild - but it is generally the only way a German government can dissolve parliament and spark early elections.
The process was designed specifically by the post-war founders of modern Germany to avoid the political instability of the Weimar era.
This vote of confidence is not a political crisis in itself: it is a standard constitutional mechanism that has been used by modern German chancellors five times to overcome political stalemate - and one Gerhard Schröder deployed on two occasions.
However, there is a deeper problem within German politics.
On the surface, the collapse of the coalition was sparked by a row over money. Scholz's centre-left SDP and his Green partners wanted to ease Germany's strict debt rules to finance support for Ukraine and key infrastructure projects.
That was blocked by Scholz's own finance minister, Christian Lindner, who is the leader of the business-friendly liberal Free Democratic Party (FDP), which prioritised driving down the debt.
Lindner was sacked and the coalition collapsed. After years of unedifying bickering, you could almost hear the sigh of relief in Berlin's corridors of power - but the underlying cause is more difficult to resolve and more worrying.
Germany's party political system has become more fragmented, with more parties than ever in parliament. The new upstart political forces are also more radical.
In 2017, the far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD) entered the Bundestag for the first time, winning 12.6%.
In 2021 it slipped to 10.4% but is now polling at almost 20%.
The AfD will not get into government because no-one will work with it to form a coalition. But the far-right is eating into the share of the vote that goes to the two centrist big-tent parties which have always put forward modern German chancellors.
The bigger the AfD share is, the more difficult it becomes for mainstream parties to form a stable governing coalition.
That was arguably the underlying problem that pulled apart Scholz's fractious coalition: big-spending left-leaning Social Democrats and Greens trying to work with free-market small-state liberals.
Rather than going away after the next election in February, that problem is likely to get worse. If the far-right wins a fifth of seats in parliament, it could be even more difficult after February to form a stable coalition between like-minded parties.
Another new populist political party could also get into parliament for the first time, the anti-migrant nativist far-left Sahra Wagenknecht Alliance BSW, which is named after its firebrand Marxist leader.
The conservatives are leading in the polls but as things stand their options for coalition partners are limited.
They refuse to work with the far-right and it is hard to imagine they would like to work with the radical left either. The free-market liberals may not even get into parliament and some conservatives refuse to consider the Greens.
That leaves Scholz's SDP as a possible partner - even though Scholz is likely to be ousted from power after his stint in power saw his popularity plummet.
Whatever the next government looks like, the era of cosy consensual coalitions in Germany seems to be over.
https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/ckg36pp6dpyo
Not much movement, no big surprises so far, surveys are fairly static. Will be tough to form government after the election.
Title: Re: German Federal Election 23rd February 2025
Post by: Hansmeister on December 17, 2024, 08:33:03 PM
Post by: Hansmeister on December 17, 2024, 08:33:03 PM
The only true choice.
Title: Re: German Federal Election 23rd February 2025
Post by: mongers on December 17, 2024, 09:13:34 PM
Post by: mongers on December 17, 2024, 09:13:34 PM
Quote from: Sheilbh on November 13, 2024, 07:03:38 PMI'm not really sure who's the best option here :bleeding:
I'd vote Green but not sure they're really helping atm. Bring back zombie Helmut Schmidt.
Yeah I could get behind that.
Title: Re: German Federal Election 23rd February 2025
Post by: The Minsky Moment on December 17, 2024, 10:10:54 PM
Post by: The Minsky Moment on December 17, 2024, 10:10:54 PM
Quote from: Hansmeister on December 17, 2024, 08:33:03 PMThe only true choice.
I'd say Adenauer but he still has a few more weeks to serve out his term as US President.
Title: Re: German Federal Election 23rd February 2025
Post by: Barrister on December 18, 2024, 11:49:44 AM
Post by: Barrister on December 18, 2024, 11:49:44 AM
Quote from: Hansmeister on December 17, 2024, 08:33:03 PMThe only true choice.
A Hansmeister posting ?!?
I have to admit I'm unfamiliar with Strauss. QUickly googling him I find him to be an interesting right-wing mid-century German politician, but not quite sure of Hans's fascination.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Franz_Josef_Strauss
Title: Re: German Federal Election 23rd February 2025
Post by: Hansmeister on December 18, 2024, 07:11:59 PM
Post by: Hansmeister on December 18, 2024, 07:11:59 PM
He was a legend in my home state of Bavaria, when he died he received a royal funeral; however, as much as he was revered in Bavaria he was hated everywhere else. It is just a way of trolling Zanza, as a Saupreuss I'm sure he loathes him.
Quote from: Barrister on December 18, 2024, 11:49:44 AMQuote from: Hansmeister on December 17, 2024, 08:33:03 PMThe only true choice.
A Hansmeister posting ?!?
I have to admit I'm unfamiliar with Strauss. QUickly googling him I find him to be an interesting right-wing mid-century German politician, but not quite sure of Hans's fascination.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Franz_Josef_Strauss
Title: Re: German Federal Election 23rd February 2025
Post by: Zanza on December 18, 2024, 10:21:13 PM
Post by: Zanza on December 18, 2024, 10:21:13 PM
Strauß was before my time, so he is just an unemotional historical figure to me.
The shenanigans of his successor König Maggus do trigger me though. Mainly to laughter.
The shenanigans of his successor König Maggus do trigger me though. Mainly to laughter.
Title: Re: German Federal Election 23rd February 2025
Post by: Barrister on December 19, 2024, 12:26:00 PM
Post by: Barrister on December 19, 2024, 12:26:00 PM
Quote from: Hansmeister on December 18, 2024, 07:11:59 PMHe was a legend in my home state of Bavaria, when he died he received a royal funeral; however, as much as he was revered in Bavaria he was hated everywhere else. It is just a way of trolling Zanza, as a Saupreuss I'm sure he loathes him.Quote from: Barrister on December 18, 2024, 11:49:44 AMQuote from: Hansmeister on December 17, 2024, 08:33:03 PMThe only true choice.
A Hansmeister posting ?!?
I have to admit I'm unfamiliar with Strauss. QUickly googling him I find him to be an interesting right-wing mid-century German politician, but not quite sure of Hans's fascination.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Franz_Josef_Strauss
Didn't know you were Bavarian - I guess that makes sense.
Anyways hope you stick around a bit!
Title: Re: German Federal Election 23rd February 2025
Post by: Hansmeister on December 20, 2024, 01:46:40 AM
Post by: Hansmeister on December 20, 2024, 01:46:40 AM
Quote from: Barrister on December 19, 2024, 12:26:00 PMQuote from: Hansmeister on December 18, 2024, 07:11:59 PMHe was a legend in my home state of Bavaria, when he died he received a royal funeral; however, as much as he was revered in Bavaria he was hated everywhere else. It is just a way of trolling Zanza, as a Saupreuss I'm sure he loathes him.Quote from: Barrister on December 18, 2024, 11:49:44 AMQuote from: Hansmeister on December 17, 2024, 08:33:03 PMThe only true choice.
A Hansmeister posting ?!?
I have to admit I'm unfamiliar with Strauss. QUickly googling him I find him to be an interesting right-wing mid-century German politician, but not quite sure of Hans's fascination.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Franz_Josef_Strauss
Didn't know you were Bavarian - I guess that makes sense.
Anyways hope you stick around a bit!
Well, technically Sudetendeutscher, my family were refugees.
I'll think I'll stick around a bit, my life has taken some interesting turns since retiring from the Army 9 years ago.
Title: Re: German Federal Election 23rd February 2025
Post by: Sheilbh on December 20, 2024, 03:44:07 PM
Post by: Sheilbh on December 20, 2024, 03:44:07 PM
Liberals once again performing their historical role re the far-right:
QuoteChristian Lindner
@c_lindner
Elon, I've initiated a policy debate inspired by ideas from you and Milei. While migration control is crucial for germany, the AfD stands against freedom, business – and it's a far-right extremist party. Don't rush to conclusions from afar. Let's meet, and I'll show you what the FDP stands for. CLQuoteElon Musk
@elonmusk
Only the AfD can save Germany
Title: Re: German Federal Election 23rd February 2025
Post by: Zanza on December 20, 2024, 04:01:57 PM
Post by: Zanza on December 20, 2024, 04:01:57 PM
Lindner seems desperate.
Title: Re: German Federal Election 23rd February 2025
Post by: Syt on January 10, 2025, 09:21:22 AM
Post by: Syt on January 10, 2025, 09:21:22 AM
Just to point out where the AfD stands - its leader on an interview on Xchan with Elon Musk:
https://www.politico.eu/article/elon-musk-german-far-right-politics-alice-weidel-afd-olaf-scholz-donald-trump/
https://www.politico.eu/article/elon-musk-german-far-right-politics-alice-weidel-afd-olaf-scholz-donald-trump/
QuoteWhen Elon met Alice: 9 weird moments from Musk's German far-right chuckle-fest
God! Martians! A "communist" Hitler! It was heavy on oddness and light on policy as the X owner and the AfD co-leader hit it off.
BERLIN — With lots of laughter, earnest agreement and effusive mutual appreciation, it started off like a promising date between two nervous teenagers (she even forgave him for getting her name wrong).
But by the end of the night, Elon Musk's live conversation with far-right German politician Alice Weidel had veered off the rails — and indeed off the planet entirely — into a rambling dialogue about Hitler, the existence of God, and why "future Martians" will one day save the Earth.
Musk's decision last month to endorse Weidel's Alternative for Germany (AfD) party earned him a storm of criticism from European politicians. But he shrugged it off — despite the threat of a regulatory investigation — and offered up his X social media platform, formerly known as Twitter, so she could speak to voters ahead of Germany's Feb. 23 election.
Weidel is standing to succeed Olaf Scholz as German chancellor, and while that seems a long way off, her party is attracting significant support and is currently in second place on about 20 percent in the polls.
In the meandering — sometimes surreal — 85-minute chat, Donald Trump's favorite entrepreneur, who is the boss of Tesla, a space travel enthusiast and the world's richest man, restated his heartfelt support for Weidel, claiming her party was the best hope for saving Germany.
Then it went weird. Here is a summary of the oddest parts of the conversation between the X owner and the co-chair of the AfD:
1. You say "Weidel," I say whatever
"Welcome to the conversation with Alice Weidel, who is currently the leading candidate to run Germany, I think," Musk declared as the X conversation opened. Unfortunately, he pronounced her name incorrectly as "Veedle."
2. Hitler was a communist
Musk decided to show off his knowledge of German history, including "Hitler and whatnot." He asked Weidel to address media portrayals of the AfD as "somehow associated with Nazism or something like that."
"Hmm, hmm," she replied. "Thank you for that question."
"He was a communist and he considered himself as a socialist." She went on: "The biggest success after that terrible era in our history was to label Adolf Hitler as right and conservative. He was exactly the opposite. He wasn't a conservative. He wasn't a libertarian. He was a communist socialist guy. Full stop. No more comment on that. And we are exactly the opposite."
3. Hitler censored the media so he would succeed
Weidel made the rather odd argument that Hitler "would never have been successful" if he had not first "switched off free speech." His party won the most seats in the German election of 1933. After that he got to work on what Musk, a free-speech fundamentalist, called "extreme censorship."
4. Save Germany, vote AfD
Weidel cited POLITICO's story revealing how 150 EU officials will be monitoring their conversation to see if Musk was breaking the bloc's digital rules by giving her party an advantage. Musk clearly isn't worried.
"The American people are demanding change," he said. "My recommendation to the people in Germany is to do the same ... I am really strongly recommending that people vote for the AfD."
In case those Brussels officials hadn't quite got the point, he added: "I think Alice Weidel is a very reasonable person. And hopefully people can tell just from this conversation, like nothing outrageous is being proposed, just common sense. So, in fact, as I said publicly, I think only AfD can save Germany."
5. We're all going to die!
Weidel took her chance to ask the SpaceX mastermind why he was focusing so much money and attention on developing plans to travel to Mars. Several light years later, he arrived at an answer, of sorts: Because the dinosaurs "didn't have spaceships".
"A lot of people think there must be aliens but I have not seen any evidence of aliens," Musk explained. There's a big chance of a humanity-ending event occurring — like "a giant meteor" crashing into Earth like the one that did for the dinosaurs, or a nuclear war. "There is some risk."
"To be clear, if we are a single planet species, it is just a matter of time before we are annihilated."
This is the kind of downbeat comment that can be a real mood-killer on a date. Weidel listened on in silence. Quickly, though, Musk tried to make amends with some more long-term positivity.
"I think we can send uncrewed starships to Mars in approximately two years."
6. Oh, and we need another planet
There will be a lot of work ahead, though, if we are going to save the human race, Musk said. He estimated it would take about 1 million tons of material and 1 million people to make life self-sustaining on the red planet. But once that little hurdle is overcome, humanity will be laughing — almost as much as Weidel and Musk were.
"My guess is that there will be cases where the future Martians actually come and help and rescue us when there is an emergency, just as America has helped to rescue the rest of world in World War 1 and 2 and the Cold War," he said.
"As for humanity, we don't want to be one of those lame, one-planet-civilizations. Any self-respecting civilization should have at least two planets."
7. Do you believe in God?
Weidel followed the spaced-out riffing on the end of humanity with a classic deep-and-meaningful, end-of-the-night question. "Do you believe in God?" she asked.
"I'm open to believing in things that are proportionate to the information that I receive," he replied, indicating he was "open to the idea" of God. "I try to form my opinions based on what I learn. And as I learn more, I aspire to change my views."
Again, it wasn't perhaps the profound poetry that Weidel's question deserved. But she didn't mind. "Yes, same here," she said. "To be honest, I'm still on a search."
8. Life, the universe and everything
Musk had more to say on the existentialist theme. "I'm curious about the nature of the universe. I would say I subscribe to the Douglas Adams School of Philosophy that was described in 'The Hitchhiker's Guide to the Galaxy.' In that book, the Earth was sort of a giant computer that was trying to answer the question, 'what is the meaning of life?' And that goes back with 42 and what does 42 mean?
"And actually the answer is the easy part, and the question is the hard part. That was actually quite an illuminating thing for me, because I had sort of an existential crisis when I was 12 or 13 about the meaning of life. I read the religious texts and the bookstore philosophy. I was reading Schopenhauer," he said, "which is a bit depressing if you're to read it as a child."
9. War. What is it good for?
It wasn't all froth and frivolity. Musk and Weidel also discussed the conflict in the Middle East and how the Ukraine war could escalate into nuclear Armageddon. "I want to have strong leaders in Germany," she said. "This is also my hope in Donald Trump and in your administration that you end that terrible war [in Ukraine], this worthless dying of young people every day, as fast as you can, because the Europeans, they cannot."
Musk reassured her: "I think President Trump is going to solve that conflict very quickly. As you point out, it's now been in somewhat of a stalemate for a few years. And all that's happened over the past few years is hundreds of thousands of people dying, but for no gains. And the longer this conflict goes on, the more Ukraine weakens relative to Russia. Ukraine is a much smaller country. It simply cannot afford the losses relative to Russia ... the longer this drags on, the worse it is for Ukraine."
Title: Re: German Federal Election 23rd February 2025
Post by: mongers on January 10, 2025, 09:32:39 AM
Post by: mongers on January 10, 2025, 09:32:39 AM
Quote from: Syt on January 10, 2025, 09:21:22 AMJust to point out where the AfD stands - its leader on an interview on Xchan with Elon Musk:
... snip ...
Musk reassured her: "I think President Trump is going to solve that conflict very quickly. As you point out, it's now been in somewhat of a stalemate for a few years. And all that's happened over the past few years is hundreds of thousands of people dying, but for no gains. And the longer this conflict goes on, the more Ukraine weakens relative to Russia. Ukraine is a much smaller country. It simply cannot afford the losses relative to Russia ... the longer this drags on, the worse it is for Ukraine."
Well that's reassuring. :unsure:
Title: Re: German Federal Election 23rd February 2025
Post by: Valmy on January 10, 2025, 10:58:21 AM
Post by: Valmy on January 10, 2025, 10:58:21 AM
The better they accept Russian rulership the better for them. When was that ever bad for Ukraine?
The problem with trying to pin down the Nazi ideology on the American political spectrum is that the Nazism was so populist and so idiotic and borrows so many stupid ideas from so many different sources that it is rather incoherent in the American context. I think it makes perfect sense as a German reactionary right wing thing. But the Nazis do borrow some of the stupidest and worst ideas from Socialism and Communism. Let's have a centrally planned incredibly corrupt economy with a hero worshipped strongman at the center! Wahoo! But...one that also enriches oligarchs. And that takes the critique that imperialism is a natural outcome of capitalism but embraces it as a feature and not a bug.
The problem with trying to pin down the Nazi ideology on the American political spectrum is that the Nazism was so populist and so idiotic and borrows so many stupid ideas from so many different sources that it is rather incoherent in the American context. I think it makes perfect sense as a German reactionary right wing thing. But the Nazis do borrow some of the stupidest and worst ideas from Socialism and Communism. Let's have a centrally planned incredibly corrupt economy with a hero worshipped strongman at the center! Wahoo! But...one that also enriches oligarchs. And that takes the critique that imperialism is a natural outcome of capitalism but embraces it as a feature and not a bug.
Title: Re: German Federal Election 23rd February 2025
Post by: Legbiter on January 10, 2025, 11:20:43 AM
Post by: Legbiter on January 10, 2025, 11:20:43 AM
Quote from: mongers on January 10, 2025, 09:32:39 AMWell that's reassuring. :unsure:
I don't know why but I tried to listen to their stream and I landed in a 10 minute monologue of Elon talking about settling Mars. :nerd: :pinch:
But I did give her CV a look.
QuoteAfter receiving her undergraduate degree, Weidel went to work for Goldman Sachs Asset Management from July 2005 to June 2006 as an analyst in Frankfurt. In the late 2000s, she worked at the Bank of China, and lived for six years in China where she learned to speak Mandarin. Subsequently, she wrote a doctoral thesis with the health economist Peter Oberender at the Faculty of Law and Economics in Bayreuth on the future of the Chinese pension system. In 2011, she received a doctorate in international development. She received her doctorate magna cum laude Her doctorate was supported by the Konrad Adenauer Foundation, the political party foundation associated with but independent of the Christian Democratic Union (CDU).
From March 2011 to May 2013, she worked as Vice President at Allianz Global Investors in Frankfurt. Since 2014, she has worked as a freelance business consultant.[7] In 2015, she worked for Rocket Internet and Foodora.[17] As of 2016, Weidel was a member of the Friedrich A. von Hayek Society.
She is a highly intelligent, very high human capital person. :hmm: Certainly way above her median voter. In fact she sounds like a CDU voter disgusted with the "refugee" Muslim biomass enshittifying all the largest urban spaces in Germany since the days of Mutti.
Alice Weidel (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Alice_Weidel)
Title: Re: German Federal Election 23rd February 2025
Post by: Valmy on January 10, 2025, 11:27:44 AM
Post by: Valmy on January 10, 2025, 11:27:44 AM
I do have to say I do not understand why people immigrate to Europe.
"You know that continent with centuries of history of ethnic cleansing and genocide at home and around the world? I sure would like to be a minority there."
"You know that continent with centuries of history of ethnic cleansing and genocide at home and around the world? I sure would like to be a minority there."
Title: Re: German Federal Election 23rd February 2025
Post by: Syt on January 10, 2025, 11:27:57 AM
Post by: Syt on January 10, 2025, 11:27:57 AM
Quote from: Legbiter on January 10, 2025, 11:20:43 AMAlice Weidel (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Alice_Weidel)
Quote[...]
According to Weidel, Germany had damaged itself and was being "crushed between the major powers" with its sanctions policy against Russia. The "big loser", according to Weidel, would not be Russia or Ukraine, but Germany, because "an economic war is being waged against Germany". Although the Russian attack on Ukraine was "contrary to international law", she sees no need to "interfere", because what it ultimately meant for Ukraine and for Russia, for the division of territory, was "not our issue at all". Putting President Vladimir Putin before a war crimes tribunal is "completely unrealistic", according to Weidel. The hostilities must stop and Ukraine must also be "held accountable" because it cannot be "that the West accepts the Ukrainian maximum demands without thinking about it".[42]
Although advocating for economic relations with Russia, Weidel is not considered to be part of the AfD pro-Russia movement [...]
:D
Title: Re: German Federal Election 23rd February 2025
Post by: Barrister on January 10, 2025, 11:41:29 AM
Post by: Barrister on January 10, 2025, 11:41:29 AM
Quote from: mongers on January 10, 2025, 09:32:39 AMQuote from: Syt on January 10, 2025, 09:21:22 AMJust to point out where the AfD stands - its leader on an interview on Xchan with Elon Musk:
... snip ...
Musk reassured her: "I think President Trump is going to solve that conflict very quickly. As you point out, it's now been in somewhat of a stalemate for a few years. And all that's happened over the past few years is hundreds of thousands of people dying, but for no gains. And the longer this conflict goes on, the more Ukraine weakens relative to Russia. Ukraine is a much smaller country. It simply cannot afford the losses relative to Russia ... the longer this drags on, the worse it is for Ukraine."
Well that's reassuring. :unsure:
The thing is - if Musk believes that (or more to the point - that the Russians believe that) - then it's not a stalemate. It's a war of attrition that Russia is winning.
So short of a Ukrainian surrender - why would Russia agree to a negotiated peace?
Title: Re: German Federal Election 23rd February 2025
Post by: Zanza on January 10, 2025, 12:44:29 PM
Post by: Zanza on January 10, 2025, 12:44:29 PM
Quote from: Legbiter on January 10, 2025, 11:20:43 AMIn fact she sounds like a CDU voter disgusted with the "refugee" Muslim biomass enshittifying all the largest urban spaces in Germany since the days of Mutti.:huh:
Your dehumanising choice of words is rather disgusting.
Title: Re: German Federal Election 23rd February 2025
Post by: crazy canuck on January 10, 2025, 02:13:37 PM
Post by: crazy canuck on January 10, 2025, 02:13:37 PM
I guess you have successfully avoided reading the more disturbing posts on Languish for the last couple of years. :D
Title: Re: German Federal Election 23rd February 2025
Post by: The Brain on January 10, 2025, 05:21:14 PM
Post by: The Brain on January 10, 2025, 05:21:14 PM
Quote from: Valmy on January 10, 2025, 11:27:44 AMI do have to say I do not understand why people immigrate to Europe.
"You know that continent with centuries of history of ethnic cleansing and genocide at home and around the world? I sure would like to be a minority there."
To decide to move, the new place only has to be better.
Title: Re: German Federal Election 23rd February 2025
Post by: Syt on January 14, 2025, 02:13:27 AM
Post by: Syt on January 14, 2025, 02:13:27 AM
The AfD in Karlsruhe has thrown these "Deportation Tickets" into mailboxes - apparently only into mailboxes with "foreign sounding" names (though AfD says it was supposed to go to all mailboxes).
(https://i.imgur.com/khaUZkc.png)
Basically, it's made out to "ILLEGAL IMMIGRANT" from GERMANY to SAFE COUNTRY OF ORIGIN. Flight is BTW2025 (BTW = BUndestagswahl = Federal election), boarding time is 8 am till 6 pm (18:00), which is how long voting is open, though some commented that AfD probably didn't hate that it comes out as 8 - 18 (H - AH, i.e. Heil Adolf Hitler). Note at the bottom says "only remigration can save Germany now" and "It's nice at home, too".
AfD organization in Göppingen posted:
(https://i.imgur.com/KNOaz6u.png)
"It's been nice here. But it's nice at home, too. Farewell. Ticket is on us."
(https://i.imgur.com/khaUZkc.png)
Basically, it's made out to "ILLEGAL IMMIGRANT" from GERMANY to SAFE COUNTRY OF ORIGIN. Flight is BTW2025 (BTW = BUndestagswahl = Federal election), boarding time is 8 am till 6 pm (18:00), which is how long voting is open, though some commented that AfD probably didn't hate that it comes out as 8 - 18 (H - AH, i.e. Heil Adolf Hitler). Note at the bottom says "only remigration can save Germany now" and "It's nice at home, too".
AfD organization in Göppingen posted:
(https://i.imgur.com/KNOaz6u.png)
"It's been nice here. But it's nice at home, too. Farewell. Ticket is on us."
Title: Re: German Federal Election 23rd February 2025
Post by: Norgy on January 14, 2025, 06:57:02 AM
Post by: Norgy on January 14, 2025, 06:57:02 AM
And the AfD's voters are of course ready to fill the coveted positions currently filled with immigrants? Such as in healthcare and rubbish collection?
Title: Re: German Federal Election 23rd February 2025
Post by: Admiral Yi on January 14, 2025, 03:09:56 PM
Post by: Admiral Yi on January 14, 2025, 03:09:56 PM
I was curious so I looked up the number of illegal immigrants in Germany. Wiki says 500K to 1M, which is more than I expected.
Title: Re: German Federal Election 23rd February 2025
Post by: Syt on January 14, 2025, 03:35:40 PM
Post by: Syt on January 14, 2025, 03:35:40 PM
I'd assume a lot of those would be asylum seekers who had their request denied and then didn't leave the country, or ones who would have to register in a different country (EU rule, simplified, is to request asylum in the country you first arrived in) instead of Germany.
Title: Re: German Federal Election 23rd February 2025
Post by: Syt on January 14, 2025, 03:38:38 PM
Post by: Syt on January 14, 2025, 03:38:38 PM
Mind you, some staffers of AfD MPs were part of a clandestine meeting with other far-right persons in 2023 that discussed that ultimately remigration would also have to mean stripping naturalized immigrants of their German citizenship in order to deport them.
Title: Re: German Federal Election 23rd February 2025
Post by: Sheilbh on January 15, 2025, 03:18:53 AM
Post by: Sheilbh on January 15, 2025, 03:18:53 AM
Quote from: Syt on January 14, 2025, 03:38:38 PMMind you, some staffers of AfD MPs were part of a clandestine meeting with other far-right persons in 2023 that discussed that ultimately remigration would also have to mean stripping naturalized immigrants of their German citizenship in order to deport them.Yeah the "remigration" discourse in some parts of Europe (it feels like especially Austria and Germany) seems to not be about illegal immigration but citizens. It seems very Enoch Powell.
Title: Re: German Federal Election 23rd February 2025
Post by: Razgovory on January 15, 2025, 03:42:39 AM
Post by: Razgovory on January 15, 2025, 03:42:39 AM
That seems dreadful.
Title: Re: German Federal Election 23rd February 2025
Post by: Norgy on January 15, 2025, 11:06:57 AM
Post by: Norgy on January 15, 2025, 11:06:57 AM
Quote from: Sheilbh on January 15, 2025, 03:18:53 AMQuote from: Syt on January 14, 2025, 03:38:38 PMMind you, some staffers of AfD MPs were part of a clandestine meeting with other far-right persons in 2023 that discussed that ultimately remigration would also have to mean stripping naturalized immigrants of their German citizenship in order to deport them.Yeah the "remigration" discourse in some parts of Europe (it feels like especially Austria and Germany) seems to not be about illegal immigration but citizens. It seems very Enoch Powell.
This concept seems to have a certain hold on the fringe in Norway as well. However, in the mainstream parties, and I include the Progress Party and the formerly Maoist Rødt (Red) among them, immigration is being discussed by referring to crime rate rather than people. In our very peculiar Norwegian-ness, high violent crime rates are called "a Swedish situation". :uffda:
Violent crime, as in shivving and some more or less targeted shootings, has become more visible, and make for better copy than tax evasion. The rather non-stance the prosecutors in Norway adapted on drug crime by not prosecuting, but still not legalising or decriminalising say marihuana, heroin or coke does create a competitive environment for young entrepreneurs willing to take a lot of risk. Such as having their heads blown off or their families targeted by other entrepreneurs wanting to increase their share of the market.
Coke is everywhere.
Title: Re: German Federal Election 23rd February 2025
Post by: crazy canuck on January 15, 2025, 11:15:35 AM
Post by: crazy canuck on January 15, 2025, 11:15:35 AM
Quote from: Norgy on January 15, 2025, 11:06:57 AMCoke is everywhere.
I blame this
https://youtube.com/watch?v=1VM2eLhvsSM&si=KCCwH5q-ieGoqzqD
Title: Re: German Federal Election 23rd February 2025
Post by: Syt on January 22, 2025, 08:27:18 AM
Post by: Syt on January 22, 2025, 08:27:18 AM
It's a funny time when the leading candidate of the Greens wants to increase defense spending to 3.5% of GDP and the candidate of the conservatives suggests 2% instead :D
Title: Re: German Federal Election 23rd February 2025
Post by: The Minsky Moment on January 22, 2025, 10:16:08 AM
Post by: The Minsky Moment on January 22, 2025, 10:16:08 AM
Quote from: Syt on January 22, 2025, 08:27:18 AMIt's a funny time when the leading candidate of the Greens wants to increase defense spending to 3.5% of GDP and the candidate of the conservatives suggests 2% instead :D
Seems that German politics, like US politics, is increasingly configured around the degree to which different political factions are influenced by or resistant to, FSB propaganda and manipulation.
Title: Re: German Federal Election 23rd February 2025
Post by: Zanza on January 22, 2025, 12:51:23 PM
Post by: Zanza on January 22, 2025, 12:51:23 PM
The election campaign is extremely uninspired. And the democratic parties of the middle prefer to attack each other rather than attacking AfD and BSW.
And there won't be a stable government after the election.
And there won't be a stable government after the election.
Title: Re: German Federal Election 23rd February 2025
Post by: HisMajestyBOB on January 22, 2025, 12:59:06 PM
Post by: HisMajestyBOB on January 22, 2025, 12:59:06 PM
So how much longer before an AfD chancellor? Will it be this election or after the new government falls apart within a year?
Title: Re: German Federal Election 23rd February 2025
Post by: Crazy_Ivan80 on January 22, 2025, 01:07:24 PM
Post by: Crazy_Ivan80 on January 22, 2025, 01:07:24 PM
Quote from: HisMajestyBOB on January 22, 2025, 12:59:06 PMSo how much longer before an AfD chancellor? Will it be this election or after the new government falls apart within a year?mh, I fear we're in for a nasty surprise
Title: Re: German Federal Election 23rd February 2025
Post by: Zanza on January 22, 2025, 02:53:08 PM
Post by: Zanza on January 22, 2025, 02:53:08 PM
Quote from: HisMajestyBOB on January 22, 2025, 12:59:06 PMSo how much longer before an AfD chancellor? Will it be this election or after the new government falls apart within a year?Two more legislative periods would put us in 2033...
Title: Re: German Federal Election 23rd February 2025
Post by: Zanza on January 24, 2025, 11:01:16 AM
Post by: Zanza on January 24, 2025, 11:01:16 AM
Merz, leader of the Conservatives and likely next chancellor, announced that his party would propose stricter migration laws and that he goes not care which parties support it. That basically means he is willing to get support from the fascists. At least he is open about before the election, but I doubt it will move the needle much.
Title: Re: German Federal Election 23rd February 2025
Post by: Neil on January 24, 2025, 11:11:26 AM
Post by: Neil on January 24, 2025, 11:11:26 AM
Quote from: Zanza on January 24, 2025, 11:01:16 AMMerz, leader of the Conservatives and likely next chancellor, announced that his party would propose stricter migration laws and that he goes not care which parties support it. That basically means he is willing to get support from the fascists. At least he is open about before the election, but I doubt it will move the needle much.There's even the tantalizing possibility that he'll draw moderate voters away from the AfD.
Title: Re: German Federal Election 23rd February 2025
Post by: Valmy on January 24, 2025, 11:28:50 AM
Post by: Valmy on January 24, 2025, 11:28:50 AM
Moderate AfD supporters?
Well here is hoping they are more common than the ever elusive never-Trump Republican voter.
But seriously Denmark's parties went full anti-immigrant to save themselves from fascism right? That could be the way out for Germany. Sad as that is.
Well here is hoping they are more common than the ever elusive never-Trump Republican voter.
But seriously Denmark's parties went full anti-immigrant to save themselves from fascism right? That could be the way out for Germany. Sad as that is.
Title: Re: German Federal Election 23rd February 2025
Post by: PJL on January 24, 2025, 11:37:43 AM
Post by: PJL on January 24, 2025, 11:37:43 AM
Quote from: Valmy on January 24, 2025, 11:28:50 AMModerate AfD supporters?
Well here is hoping they are more common than the ever elusive never-Trump Republican voter.
But seriously Denmark's parties went full anti-immigrant to save themselves from fascism right? That could be the way out for Germany. Sad as that is.
It does seem that way, that mass immigration facilitates fascism and the only real counter is to limit it to some extent. The more successful the left is in promoting immigration the better the prospects for the far right.
Title: Re: German Federal Election 23rd February 2025
Post by: Neil on January 24, 2025, 11:52:12 AM
Post by: Neil on January 24, 2025, 11:52:12 AM
Quote from: Valmy on January 24, 2025, 11:28:50 AMModerate AfD supporters?A section of AfD voters are voting against immigration, because that's their big issue. The rest of it, they're just along for the ride with. Even in Europe, with all their little parties, you don't agree 100% with everything the party leader says.
Well here is hoping they are more common than the ever elusive never-Trump Republican voter.
The never-Trumps are real, and indeed you saw prominent Republicans campaigning for Harris, and Trump's votes being lackluster in places. But it's fiendishly hard for incumbents to win right now, with global economic conditions turning against most people, and that's ignoring the fact that the people running against Trump were medically incompetent and then the most unpopular major candidate in living memory.
Title: Re: German Federal Election 23rd February 2025
Post by: Crazy_Ivan80 on January 24, 2025, 12:01:44 PM
Post by: Crazy_Ivan80 on January 24, 2025, 12:01:44 PM
Quote from: Zanza on January 24, 2025, 11:01:16 AMMerz, leader of the Conservatives and likely next chancellor, announced that his party would propose stricter migration laws and that he goes not care which parties support it. That basically means he is willing to get support from the fascists. At least he is open about before the election, but I doubt it will move the needle much.
On the other hand: if any proposal you make becomes beyond the pale because the afd might vote for it then you might as well stop with politics because you just gave the party the blocking strategy
Title: Re: German Federal Election 23rd February 2025
Post by: Syt on January 24, 2025, 12:33:43 PM
Post by: Syt on January 24, 2025, 12:33:43 PM
Quote from: Zanza on January 24, 2025, 11:01:16 AMMerz, leader of the Conservatives and likely next chancellor, announced that his party would propose stricter migration laws and that he goes not care which parties support it. That basically means he is willing to get support from the fascists. At least he is open about before the election, but I doubt it will move the needle much.
The ÖVP tried to poach voters from FPÖ by co-opting their policies and moving further to the right. All it did was push their voters to FPÖ.
Title: Re: German Federal Election 23rd February 2025
Post by: Zanza on January 24, 2025, 12:54:58 PM
Post by: Zanza on January 24, 2025, 12:54:58 PM
Quote from: Crazy_Ivan80 on January 24, 2025, 12:01:44 PMOn the other hand: if any proposal you make becomes beyond the pale because the afd might vote for it then you might as well stop with politics because you just gave the party the blocking strategyThat's not the criterion. If you vote for something universally popular and the fascists also agree, it does not matter. But if you only find a majority with the fascist, but not without them, you have to ask yourself why in a consensus driven democracy like Germany.
Title: Re: German Federal Election 23rd February 2025
Post by: grumbler on January 25, 2025, 05:01:37 PM
Post by: grumbler on January 25, 2025, 05:01:37 PM
Quote from: Neil on January 24, 2025, 11:52:12 AMThe never-Trumps are real, and indeed you saw prominent Republicans campaigning for Harris, and Trump's votes being lackluster in places. But it's fiendishly hard for incumbents to win right now, with global economic conditions turning against most people, and that's ignoring the fact that the people running against Trump were medically incompetent and then the most unpopular major candidate in living memory.
You weren't living when Trump (the most unpopular candidate in US history (as far back as the polls go) ran in 2016, 2020, and 2024? When Hillary Clinton ran in 2016?
Harris was underwater by 2 points on election day 2024, Trump by over 8. It wasn't candidate popularity that decided that election.
Title: Re: German Federal Election 23rd February 2025
Post by: Zanza on January 29, 2025, 12:38:21 PM
Post by: Zanza on January 29, 2025, 12:38:21 PM
The Conservatives and Liberals had the Fascists join a parliamentary motion on migration today. Their conscience supposedly forced them break this former taboo. Strange that they show their true colours before the election already.
Title: Re: German Federal Election 23rd February 2025
Post by: Tamas on January 30, 2025, 10:02:34 AM
Post by: Tamas on January 30, 2025, 10:02:34 AM
I am sure they think they will be able to control the far right by giving them ground. Worked splendidly in the past didn't it.
Title: Re: German Federal Election 23rd February 2025
Post by: Zanza on February 02, 2025, 06:43:28 AM
Post by: Zanza on February 02, 2025, 06:43:28 AM
After his conscience forced him into passing a motion with the fascists last Wednesday, and after failing to pass a law on Friday due to own disloyal party members, the Conservative leader doubled down.
His new fifteen point plan is mainly reactionary in that he would revoke important laws of the predecessor government. But the parties that formed that government and passed those laws are his supposed coalition partners, and it is not clear why they would agree with him.
He excludes working with the fascists. But he could probably pass all fifteen points of his program with the fascists. Let's see what his conscience will tell him after the election. :hmm:
His new fifteen point plan is mainly reactionary in that he would revoke important laws of the predecessor government. But the parties that formed that government and passed those laws are his supposed coalition partners, and it is not clear why they would agree with him.
He excludes working with the fascists. But he could probably pass all fifteen points of his program with the fascists. Let's see what his conscience will tell him after the election. :hmm:
Title: Re: German Federal Election 23rd February 2025
Post by: HisMajestyBOB on February 02, 2025, 10:52:06 AM
Post by: HisMajestyBOB on February 02, 2025, 10:52:06 AM
Next step is to form a government with the fascists, appointing their leader as Chancellor based on the idea that she will be "easily controlled."
I'm sure it'll all work out swimmingly.
I'm sure it'll all work out swimmingly.
Title: Re: German Federal Election 23rd February 2025
Post by: PJL on February 02, 2025, 11:53:30 AM
Post by: PJL on February 02, 2025, 11:53:30 AM
Feels like everyone has just given up, if you can't beat them, join them.
Title: Re: German Federal Election 23rd February 2025
Post by: HisMajestyBOB on February 02, 2025, 01:51:38 PM
Post by: HisMajestyBOB on February 02, 2025, 01:51:38 PM
Quote from: PJL on February 02, 2025, 11:53:30 AMFeels like everyone has just given up, if you can't beat them, join them.
Where have all the FDRs and Churchills gone?
Title: Re: German Federal Election 23rd February 2025
Post by: Crazy_Ivan80 on February 02, 2025, 02:48:11 PM
Post by: Crazy_Ivan80 on February 02, 2025, 02:48:11 PM
Quote from: HisMajestyBOB on February 02, 2025, 01:51:38 PMThey've been canceled by the progsQuote from: PJL on February 02, 2025, 11:53:30 AMFeels like everyone has just given up, if you can't beat them, join them.
Where have all the FDRs and Churchills gone?
Title: Re: German Federal Election 23rd February 2025
Post by: Valmy on February 02, 2025, 03:26:54 PM
Post by: Valmy on February 02, 2025, 03:26:54 PM
Quote from: PJL on February 02, 2025, 11:53:30 AMFeels like everyone has just given up, if you can't beat them, join them.
I do think the Conservatives are correct to some extent. Some of the policies of the extreme right must be co-opted in order to weaken their voter base. As I said that seemed to work out in Denmark.
Title: Re: German Federal Election 23rd February 2025
Post by: Valmy on February 02, 2025, 03:28:11 PM
Post by: Valmy on February 02, 2025, 03:28:11 PM
Quote from: Crazy_Ivan80 on February 02, 2025, 02:48:11 PMQuote from: HisMajestyBOB on February 02, 2025, 01:51:38 PMThey've been canceled by the progsQuote from: PJL on February 02, 2025, 11:53:30 AMFeels like everyone has just given up, if you can't beat them, join them.
Where have all the FDRs and Churchills gone?
Maybe the progs are far more powerful in Europe than here, but canceling never really worked against anybody of any significance. All it usually did was bully minor figures, usually other progressive ones.
Title: Re: German Federal Election 23rd February 2025
Post by: HisMajestyBOB on February 06, 2025, 11:42:35 PM
Post by: HisMajestyBOB on February 06, 2025, 11:42:35 PM
https://www.politico.eu/article/germany-election-flood-social-media-x-russia-bots-kremlin-operation-false-news/
Russia delenda est <_<
QuotePutin's disinformation networks flood social media in bid to skew German election
A Kremlin-backed campaign is trying to influence voters ahead of Feb. 23 poll, according to government report obtained by POLITICO.
Russia delenda est <_<
Title: Re: German Federal Election 23rd February 2025
Post by: Threviel on February 08, 2025, 05:37:57 AM
Post by: Threviel on February 08, 2025, 05:37:57 AM
I once looked at poll data in Sweden. For as far back as polling data exists, the early 90ies, there's been an overwhelming opposition to generous immigration policies. Something like 50+ % against, 25-% for.
It has very very slowly been evening out and last I looked it was something like 45% against and 25 or so for.
If, at any time, there'd have been a referendum on it then Swedish borders would, in all certainty, have closed up.
Until '14 it wasn't a very important question, but since then it's been growing more and more important and it's really no wonder that the established parties are forced to revise their immigration policies. If only the fascist scum are anti-immigration and a majority (or a very large plurality) is anti-immigration and it's an important question, well, then the fascist scum are going to get votes.
It's not about folding to the fascists, it's that we are democracies and the will of the people ought to count.
It has very very slowly been evening out and last I looked it was something like 45% against and 25 or so for.
If, at any time, there'd have been a referendum on it then Swedish borders would, in all certainty, have closed up.
Until '14 it wasn't a very important question, but since then it's been growing more and more important and it's really no wonder that the established parties are forced to revise their immigration policies. If only the fascist scum are anti-immigration and a majority (or a very large plurality) is anti-immigration and it's an important question, well, then the fascist scum are going to get votes.
It's not about folding to the fascists, it's that we are democracies and the will of the people ought to count.
Title: Re: German Federal Election 23rd February 2025
Post by: Valmy on February 08, 2025, 07:57:19 PM
Post by: Valmy on February 08, 2025, 07:57:19 PM
Yeah as much as I hate to say it, I think the only way to combat the far right is to go anti-immigrant.
As I have pointed out, that seems to have worked for Denmark.
I guess one way to think about it is that the immigrants already there would suffer under a far right government. Maybe the best thing you can do for the immigrants already in the country is to limit the number coming in and thus taking away the far right's primary issue.
As I have pointed out, that seems to have worked for Denmark.
I guess one way to think about it is that the immigrants already there would suffer under a far right government. Maybe the best thing you can do for the immigrants already in the country is to limit the number coming in and thus taking away the far right's primary issue.
Title: Re: German Federal Election 23rd February 2025
Post by: Grey Fox on February 08, 2025, 08:24:19 PM
Post by: Grey Fox on February 08, 2025, 08:24:19 PM
Immigration would be better accepted if it didn't serve so well to at being a wages suppressing vector for the capital class.
Title: Re: German Federal Election 23rd February 2025
Post by: garbon on February 09, 2025, 04:13:26 AM
Post by: garbon on February 09, 2025, 04:13:26 AM
Quote from: Valmy on February 08, 2025, 07:57:19 PMYeah as much as I hate to say it, I think the only way to combat the far right is to go anti-immigrant.
As I have pointed out, that seems to have worked for Denmark.
I guess one way to think about it is that the immigrants already there would suffer under a far right government. Maybe the best thing you can do for the immigrants already in the country is to limit the number coming in and thus taking away the far right's primary issue.
The only way to "beat" them is to become them?
Title: Re: German Federal Election 23rd February 2025
Post by: Crazy_Ivan80 on February 09, 2025, 04:28:02 AM
Post by: Crazy_Ivan80 on February 09, 2025, 04:28:02 AM
Quote from: Grey Fox on February 08, 2025, 08:24:19 PMImmigration would be better accepted if it didn't serve so well to at being a wages suppressing vector for the capital class.
Wouldn't solve the problem of incompatible cultures. Mass migration of people that hate our culture and society doesn't work
Title: Re: German Federal Election 23rd February 2025
Post by: Threviel on February 09, 2025, 06:45:17 AM
Post by: Threviel on February 09, 2025, 06:45:17 AM
It's also unfair I think, to frame anti-immigration as racism. If Swedes were racists the fascist parties would have become big in the 80ies and 90ies. They didn't become big until immigration became a financial issue.
Sweden has received something like a million refugees/poor immigrants in a population of 8 million. At the same time something like a million non-refugees/poor have moved to Sweden from all over the world.
Every refugee, for every year for the rest of their life costs something like $10.000 a year, a million of them costs $10.000.000.000 a year. Say that they live for 50 years or so in Sweden, that's $500.000.000.000 in total.
It's not a matter of racism, it's absolutely gigantic resources that could have been spent on healthcare, schools, law enforcement, lower taxes or whatever that instead is spent on foreigners that the majority did not want here in the first place.
That the fascist scum is not a majority party is a testament to the non-racism and general kind heartedness of the vast majority of the population.
Sweden has received something like a million refugees/poor immigrants in a population of 8 million. At the same time something like a million non-refugees/poor have moved to Sweden from all over the world.
Every refugee, for every year for the rest of their life costs something like $10.000 a year, a million of them costs $10.000.000.000 a year. Say that they live for 50 years or so in Sweden, that's $500.000.000.000 in total.
It's not a matter of racism, it's absolutely gigantic resources that could have been spent on healthcare, schools, law enforcement, lower taxes or whatever that instead is spent on foreigners that the majority did not want here in the first place.
That the fascist scum is not a majority party is a testament to the non-racism and general kind heartedness of the vast majority of the population.
Title: Re: German Federal Election 23rd February 2025
Post by: Jacob on February 09, 2025, 11:52:31 AM
Post by: Jacob on February 09, 2025, 11:52:31 AM
Quote from: garbon on February 09, 2025, 04:13:26 AMThe only way to "beat" them is to become them?
If the choices are:
1) Give up on the rule of law and give up on democracy to embrace bigotry dialled up to 8 or 9; and
2) Maintain the rule of law and our democracy, and accept bigotry dialled up to 5;
Then I can see the logic in opting for 2), even if my values are for bigotry to be dialled down to 0. Even more so if option 2) also comes with better policies on the environment, for workers, international relations, education, the economy, consumer protection, and so on.
That said, it's probably easier to manage in a proportional representation environment than in a first past the post one.
If there's a rise in bigotry among the population - or of non-bigoted concerns that can be leveraged by bigots - to such a degree that it drives politics in a democracies, I'd rather that be incorporated and dealt with democratically than that it becomes a tool for Fascists to overthrow democracy.
It's not ideal, obviously, but if there's a spectrum of possible outcomes I think going for the least bad one is preferable.
Though - of course - maintaining democracy and our rule of law while dialling bigotry down is the best outcome from my perspective.
Title: Re: German Federal Election 23rd February 2025
Post by: garbon on February 09, 2025, 11:55:45 AM
Post by: garbon on February 09, 2025, 11:55:45 AM
Quote from: Jacob on February 09, 2025, 11:52:31 AMQuote from: garbon on February 09, 2025, 04:13:26 AMThe only way to "beat" them is to become them?
If the choices are:
1) Give up on the rule of law and give up on democracy to embrace bigotry dialled up to 8 or 9; and
2) Maintain the rule of law and our democracy, and accept bigotry dialled up to 5;
Then I can see the logic in opting for 2), even if my values are for bigotry to be dialled down to 0. Even more so if option 2) also comes with better policies on the environment, for workers, international relations, education, the economy, consumer protection, and so on.
That said, it's probably easier to manage in a proportional representation environment than in a first past the post one.
If there's a rise in bigotry among the population - or of non-bigoted concerns that can be leveraged by bigots - to such a degree that it drives politics in a democracies, I'd rather that be incorporated and dealt with democratically than that it becomes a tool for Fascists to overthrow democracy.
It's not ideal, obviously, but if there's a spectrum of possible outcomes I think going for the least bad one is preferable.
Though - of course - maintaining democracy and our rule of law while dialling bigotry down is the best outcome from my perspective.
I'd suggest one's state is pretty shitty if those are the only two options. Sacrifice some to save the many?
Title: Re: German Federal Election 23rd February 2025
Post by: Valmy on February 09, 2025, 12:39:40 PM
Post by: Valmy on February 09, 2025, 12:39:40 PM
Quote from: garbon on February 09, 2025, 04:13:26 AMThe only way to "beat" them is to become them?
Not exactly. But this issue is fueling their power, it needs to be removed from them.
I don't think you necessarily have to be far right to limit immigration. And, like I said, there is also the immigrants that are currently inside the country to consider. As political pressure heats up against immigrants, reducing further immigration might be necessary to safeguard their future.
Title: Re: German Federal Election 23rd February 2025
Post by: Valmy on February 09, 2025, 12:40:24 PM
Post by: Valmy on February 09, 2025, 12:40:24 PM
Quote from: garbon on February 09, 2025, 11:55:45 AMI'd suggest one's state is pretty shitty if those are the only two options. Sacrifice some to save the many?
Is not being able to immigrate to a country a death sentence? In what way are they being sacrificed?
Sure in a world where the human rights of the individual took precedence, then the right to move anywhere one desired would take precedence over the power of nations. But that isn't the world we live in. I don't think anybody just expects every country to freely accept them moving there.
If the UK had decided not to let you stay there, sure that would have sucked for you, but hardly a crime against humanity surely.
Title: Re: German Federal Election 23rd February 2025
Post by: dist on February 09, 2025, 01:21:43 PM
Post by: dist on February 09, 2025, 01:21:43 PM
Quote from: Jacob on February 09, 2025, 11:52:31 AMIf there's a rise in bigotry among the population - or of non-bigoted concerns that can be leveraged by bigots - to such a degree that it drives politics in a democracies, I'd rather that be incorporated and dealt with democratically than that it becomes a tool for Fascists to overthrow democracy.
Isn't that what happened in Denmark where the main parties successfully incorporated tougher stances on immigration and thus managed to maintain the far-right at bay?
Title: Re: German Federal Election 23rd February 2025
Post by: Jacob on February 09, 2025, 02:14:05 PM
Post by: Jacob on February 09, 2025, 02:14:05 PM
Quote from: garbon on February 09, 2025, 11:55:45 AMI'd suggest one's state is pretty shitty if those are the only two options. Sacrifice some to save the many?
We do seem to be trending in a pretty shitty direction, yeah.
But I guess there are two other directions:
3) Stand tall against the tide of Fascism and beat it back while remaining true to our principles.
It's obviously preferable, but if it's not working then it's IMO worthwhile reexamining the strategy... even if the conclusion is to double down.
What do you think we should do?
Title: Re: German Federal Election 23rd February 2025
Post by: Jacob on February 09, 2025, 02:19:48 PM
Post by: Jacob on February 09, 2025, 02:19:48 PM
Quote from: dist on February 09, 2025, 01:21:43 PMIsn't that what happened in Denmark where the main parties successfully incorporated tougher stances on immigration and thus managed to maintain the far-right at bay?
Yes. And I hated it.
But so far it seems to have worked, and the far right is fairly splintered at the moment. Anti-immigration sentiment is not a galvanizing issue to overthrow the political order, as I understand the politics of Denmark at the moment. It's still an issue, but just one of several.
Title: Re: German Federal Election 23rd February 2025
Post by: Valmy on February 10, 2025, 10:01:04 AM
Post by: Valmy on February 10, 2025, 10:01:04 AM
Quote from: Jacob on February 09, 2025, 02:14:05 PMQuote from: garbon on February 09, 2025, 11:55:45 AMI'd suggest one's state is pretty shitty if those are the only two options. Sacrifice some to save the many?
We do seem to be trending in a pretty shitty direction, yeah.
But I guess there are two other directions:
3) Stand tall against the tide of Fascism and beat it back while remaining true to our principles.
It's obviously preferable, but if it's not working then it's IMO worthwhile reexamining the strategy... even if the conclusion is to double down.
What do you think we should do?
Ok what is the principle involved? I figured that the reason we support immigration is because it is good for the country. Bring in more workers and enrich the country with new cultural influences. But if immigration becomes bad for the country, it empowers far right political forces or suppresses wages or whatever, then immigration should be limited. Right? Or is there some reason immigration should be embraced regardless of whether or not it is otherwise good for the country? Like the principle of the free movement of labor?
Title: Re: German Federal Election 23rd February 2025
Post by: crazy canuck on February 10, 2025, 10:04:29 AM
Post by: crazy canuck on February 10, 2025, 10:04:29 AM
Immigration isn't an all or nothing proposition. No modern nation state has had open borders allowing anyone to immigrate. The question is what restrictions are appropriate.
Canada is a good example of a country that had reasonable restrictions but had blinders to the abuses that were occurring (student visas for people who were not actually attending classes, leading to citizenship).
Canada is a good example of a country that had reasonable restrictions but had blinders to the abuses that were occurring (student visas for people who were not actually attending classes, leading to citizenship).
Title: Re: German Federal Election 23rd February 2025
Post by: Zanza on February 10, 2025, 11:29:11 AM
Post by: Zanza on February 10, 2025, 11:29:11 AM
Trends since the official dissolution of parliament in mid December.
(https://i.imgur.com/kL0Mjqt.png)
There is a cut-off at 5%. If you are below that, you do not get any seats in parliament. Which is obviously very interesting for BSW (Putin's fifth column), Liberals (think Musk/Milei) and Left (former communist party).
Longer term since last election:
(https://i.imgur.com/NhSHXvs.png)
(https://i.imgur.com/kL0Mjqt.png)
There is a cut-off at 5%. If you are below that, you do not get any seats in parliament. Which is obviously very interesting for BSW (Putin's fifth column), Liberals (think Musk/Milei) and Left (former communist party).
Longer term since last election:
(https://i.imgur.com/NhSHXvs.png)
Title: Re: German Federal Election 23rd February 2025
Post by: Barrister on February 10, 2025, 11:52:42 AM
Post by: Barrister on February 10, 2025, 11:52:42 AM
Quote from: Threviel on February 09, 2025, 06:45:17 AMIt's also unfair I think, to frame anti-immigration as racism. If Swedes were racists the fascist parties would have become big in the 80ies and 90ies. They didn't become big until immigration became a financial issue.
That's what we've seen in Canada. There was a partisan consensus for many years that immigration was good for Canada. The only party that was anti-immigrant was the very fringe PPC which has no seats.
Until it became a financial issue. There's now the sense that allowing 500k new Canadians per year was driving up housing prices and driving down wages, and now I think all parties agree that immigration levels need to be lower.
Title: Re: German Federal Election 23rd February 2025
Post by: crazy canuck on February 10, 2025, 12:11:23 PM
Post by: crazy canuck on February 10, 2025, 12:11:23 PM
Quote from: Barrister on February 10, 2025, 11:52:42 AMQuote from: Threviel on February 09, 2025, 06:45:17 AMIt's also unfair I think, to frame anti-immigration as racism. If Swedes were racists the fascist parties would have become big in the 80ies and 90ies. They didn't become big until immigration became a financial issue.
That's what we've seen in Canada. There was a partisan consensus for many years that immigration was good for Canada. The only party that was anti-immigrant was the very fringe PPC which has no seats.
Until it became a financial issue. There's now the sense that allowing 500k new Canadians per year was driving up housing prices and driving down wages, and now I think all parties agree that immigration levels need to be lower.
I don't think it is limited to the economic issue. We still need immigration to bolster our population growth. Where Canada went wrong is the structure of our immigration system. I have pointed to the investigative journalism the Globe did in the recent past in other posts. The problem was that we thought we had a system which reduced the age of our population, but we actually did the reverse. Add to that the abuses with student visas, and the ground upon which the consensus was built becomes very shaky.
Title: Re: German Federal Election 23rd February 2025
Post by: Barrister on February 10, 2025, 12:18:48 PM
Post by: Barrister on February 10, 2025, 12:18:48 PM
Quote from: crazy canuck on February 10, 2025, 12:11:23 PMQuote from: Barrister on February 10, 2025, 11:52:42 AMQuote from: Threviel on February 09, 2025, 06:45:17 AMIt's also unfair I think, to frame anti-immigration as racism. If Swedes were racists the fascist parties would have become big in the 80ies and 90ies. They didn't become big until immigration became a financial issue.
That's what we've seen in Canada. There was a partisan consensus for many years that immigration was good for Canada. The only party that was anti-immigrant was the very fringe PPC which has no seats.
Until it became a financial issue. There's now the sense that allowing 500k new Canadians per year was driving up housing prices and driving down wages, and now I think all parties agree that immigration levels need to be lower.
I don't think it is limited to the economic issue. We still need immigration to bolster our population growth. Where Canada went wrong is the structure of our immigration system. I have pointed to the investigative journalism the Globe did in the recent past in other posts. The problem was that we thought we had a system which reduced the age of our population, but we actually did the reverse. Add to that the abuses with student visas, and the ground upon which the consensus was built becomes very shaky.
I've seen online comments that talked very positively about our points-based immigration system - and I always want to say (and sometimes do) "you know that's not how most new Canadians enter the country - it's either family reunification or on student visas".
Title: Re: German Federal Election 23rd February 2025
Post by: crazy canuck on February 10, 2025, 12:19:41 PM
Post by: crazy canuck on February 10, 2025, 12:19:41 PM
Quote from: Barrister on February 10, 2025, 12:18:48 PMQuote from: crazy canuck on February 10, 2025, 12:11:23 PMQuote from: Barrister on February 10, 2025, 11:52:42 AMQuote from: Threviel on February 09, 2025, 06:45:17 AMIt's also unfair I think, to frame anti-immigration as racism. If Swedes were racists the fascist parties would have become big in the 80ies and 90ies. They didn't become big until immigration became a financial issue.
That's what we've seen in Canada. There was a partisan consensus for many years that immigration was good for Canada. The only party that was anti-immigrant was the very fringe PPC which has no seats.
Until it became a financial issue. There's now the sense that allowing 500k new Canadians per year was driving up housing prices and driving down wages, and now I think all parties agree that immigration levels need to be lower.
I don't think it is limited to the economic issue. We still need immigration to bolster our population growth. Where Canada went wrong is the structure of our immigration system. I have pointed to the investigative journalism the Globe did in the recent past in other posts. The problem was that we thought we had a system which reduced the age of our population, but we actually did the reverse. Add to that the abuses with student visas, and the ground upon which the consensus was built becomes very shaky.
I've seen online comments that talked very positively about our points-based immigration system - and I always want to say (and sometimes do) "you know that's not how most new Canadians enter the country - it's either family reunification or on student visas".
Yeah exactly.
Title: Re: German Federal Election 23rd February 2025
Post by: Neil on February 10, 2025, 12:33:00 PM
Post by: Neil on February 10, 2025, 12:33:00 PM
Family reunification sounded good and kind, but it turned out to be a bit of a disaster, didn't it?
Title: Re: German Federal Election 23rd February 2025
Post by: crazy canuck on February 10, 2025, 12:37:10 PM
Post by: crazy canuck on February 10, 2025, 12:37:10 PM
Quote from: Neil on February 10, 2025, 12:33:00 PMFamily reunification sounded good and kind, but it turned out to be a bit of a disaster, didn't it?
I thought, and still do, that properly administered it was the correct policy. People often think about family reunification as bringing a parent into Canada. That is helpful because it helps with childcare and support of the family unit. But as always the devil is in the detail. Reunification with parents became reunification with aunts and uncles. And that is how our population rapidly aged rather than making our population younger.
Title: Re: German Federal Election 23rd February 2025
Post by: Neil on February 10, 2025, 12:45:45 PM
Post by: Neil on February 10, 2025, 12:45:45 PM
Quote from: crazy canuck on February 10, 2025, 12:37:10 PMThere's an entire industry devoted to childcare. Bringing in aging parents at enormous taxpayer expense doesn't seem to be worth it, on balance.Quote from: Neil on February 10, 2025, 12:33:00 PMFamily reunification sounded good and kind, but it turned out to be a bit of a disaster, didn't it?I thought, and still do, that properly administered it was the correct policy. People often think about family reunification as bringing a parent into Canada. That is helpful because it helps with childcare and support of the family unit. But as always the devil is in the detail. Reunification with parents became reunification with aunts and uncles. And that is how our population rapidly aged rather than making our population younger.
Title: Re: German Federal Election 23rd February 2025
Post by: crazy canuck on February 10, 2025, 12:47:48 PM
Post by: crazy canuck on February 10, 2025, 12:47:48 PM
Quote from: Neil on February 10, 2025, 12:45:45 PMQuote from: crazy canuck on February 10, 2025, 12:37:10 PMThere's an entire industry devoted to childcare. Bringing in aging parents at enormous taxpayer expense doesn't seem to be worth it, on balance.Quote from: Neil on February 10, 2025, 12:33:00 PMFamily reunification sounded good and kind, but it turned out to be a bit of a disaster, didn't it?I thought, and still do, that properly administered it was the correct policy. People often think about family reunification as bringing a parent into Canada. That is helpful because it helps with childcare and support of the family unit. But as always the devil is in the detail. Reunification with parents became reunification with aunts and uncles. And that is how our population rapidly aged rather than making our population younger.
There is a whole inadequate and expensive industry devoted to childcare. Bringing in parents to add a productive person to the workforce is well worth whatever costs there might be. Also, the enormity of the cost you are talking about is more than offsets the types of government expenditures that will be required to provide subsidized daycare.
Title: Re: German Federal Election 23rd February 2025
Post by: Neil on February 10, 2025, 01:04:39 PM
Post by: Neil on February 10, 2025, 01:04:39 PM
Quote from: crazy canuck on February 10, 2025, 12:47:48 PMIt might be expensive, but it's not inadequate, and subsidizing daycare isn't as expensive as the lifetime and end-of-life healthcare costs of middle-aged third worlders.Quote from: Neil on February 10, 2025, 12:45:45 PMThere is a whole inadequate and expensive industry devoted to childcare. Bringing in parents to add a productive person to the workforce is well worth whatever costs there might be. Also, the enormity of the cost you are talking about is more than offsets the types of government expenditures that will be required to provide subsidized daycare.Quote from: crazy canuck on February 10, 2025, 12:37:10 PMThere's an entire industry devoted to childcare. Bringing in aging parents at enormous taxpayer expense doesn't seem to be worth it, on balance.Quote from: Neil on February 10, 2025, 12:33:00 PMFamily reunification sounded good and kind, but it turned out to be a bit of a disaster, didn't it?I thought, and still do, that properly administered it was the correct policy. People often think about family reunification as bringing a parent into Canada. That is helpful because it helps with childcare and support of the family unit. But as always the devil is in the detail. Reunification with parents became reunification with aunts and uncles. And that is how our population rapidly aged rather than making our population younger.
Title: Re: German Federal Election 23rd February 2025
Post by: crazy canuck on February 10, 2025, 01:17:52 PM
Post by: crazy canuck on February 10, 2025, 01:17:52 PM
Quote from: Neil on February 10, 2025, 01:04:39 PMIt might be expensive, but it's not inadequate, and subsidizing daycare isn't as expensive as the lifetime and end-of-life healthcare costs of middle-aged third worlders.
Childcare has been in short supply for at least the last 30 years, outside Quebec. Maybe longer, but I can only speak to what I know about from first hand experience.
Title: Re: German Federal Election 23rd February 2025
Post by: Threviel on February 10, 2025, 01:29:54 PM
Post by: Threviel on February 10, 2025, 01:29:54 PM
Demographics wise immigration is not the answer either. In Sweden, once an immigrant family becomes integrated their demographic collapses like everyone else, I assume that holds true everywhere.
So either they are poor and part of the financial problem and a drain on finances or they become integrated and a part of the demographic problem.
Refugees and uneducated poor immigration solves no problems with regards to either economy or demographics.
So either they are poor and part of the financial problem and a drain on finances or they become integrated and a part of the demographic problem.
Refugees and uneducated poor immigration solves no problems with regards to either economy or demographics.
Title: Re: German Federal Election 23rd February 2025
Post by: crazy canuck on February 10, 2025, 01:45:40 PM
Post by: crazy canuck on February 10, 2025, 01:45:40 PM
Sure, but if the immigration system is working properly, there is a steady stream of young educated workers coming into the country. That is the theory upon which the Canadian consensus was built. Those young workers are likely to have at least 1 child, which also helps. If we are lucky they will have two. And the home run is they will have three. But the underlying premise is the steady stream of young educated workers coming here. As BB mentioned, that is what the points system was trying to screen for.
Title: Re: German Federal Election 23rd February 2025
Post by: Jacob on February 10, 2025, 01:47:39 PM
Post by: Jacob on February 10, 2025, 01:47:39 PM
IMO student visas --> citizenship is good, as long as there's a proper framework for the kind of student and the kind of education.
There are two main weak spots as it was set up, as I see it:
1) We've allowed our post-secondary schools to become dependent on tuition fees to fund their operations.
2) We've allowed the creation of post-secondary degree mills that operate to generate profit for private investors.
That created the incentive to open the gates massively, with little consideration for whether all potential students were appropriate.
But the basic idea of "young ambitious people getting educated and then staying in Canada as they begin their working lives" is fundamentally sound.
There are two main weak spots as it was set up, as I see it:
1) We've allowed our post-secondary schools to become dependent on tuition fees to fund their operations.
2) We've allowed the creation of post-secondary degree mills that operate to generate profit for private investors.
That created the incentive to open the gates massively, with little consideration for whether all potential students were appropriate.
But the basic idea of "young ambitious people getting educated and then staying in Canada as they begin their working lives" is fundamentally sound.
Title: Re: German Federal Election 23rd February 2025
Post by: crazy canuck on February 10, 2025, 01:51:36 PM
Post by: crazy canuck on February 10, 2025, 01:51:36 PM
Quote from: Jacob on February 10, 2025, 01:47:39 PMIMO student visas --> citizenship is good, as long as there's a proper framework for the kind of student and the kind of education.
There are two main weak spots as it was set up, as I see it:
1) We've allowed our post-secondary schools to become dependent on tuition fees to fund their operations.
2) We've allowed the creation of post-secondary degree mills that operate to generate profit for private investors.
That created the incentive to open the gates massively, with little consideration for whether all potential students were appropriate.
But the basic idea of "young ambitious people getting educated and then staying in Canada as they begin their working lives" is fundamentally sound.
I don't think point 1 is necessarily bad. Point 2 is where all the mischief has occurred. The idea of young ambitious people becoming educated and staying in Canada is exactly what the system was supposed to do. But that is not what happened. Instead we got a bunch of people in on student visas (who were not necessarily young and who were not being educated) and who, once they obtained their Canadian citizenship after obtaining a fraudulent diploma from a diploma mill, brought over their parents, uncles and aunts. All of which considerably contributed to the greying of our population.
Title: Re: German Federal Election 23rd February 2025
Post by: Threviel on February 10, 2025, 01:52:43 PM
Post by: Threviel on February 10, 2025, 01:52:43 PM
That basic is sound only as far as those young educated workers are not allowed to bring their relatives.
Title: Re: German Federal Election 23rd February 2025
Post by: Zanza on February 10, 2025, 01:53:26 PM
Post by: Zanza on February 10, 2025, 01:53:26 PM
It will be interesting in two or so decades when virtually all countries in the world will face demographic collapse. By then only central Africa and some utter shitholes like Afghanistan will have surplus working age population.
Title: Re: German Federal Election 23rd February 2025
Post by: crazy canuck on February 10, 2025, 01:53:29 PM
Post by: crazy canuck on February 10, 2025, 01:53:29 PM
Quote from: Threviel on February 10, 2025, 01:52:43 PMThat basic is sound only as far as those young educated workers are not allowed to bring their relatives.
As I argued with Neil, I think a good case can be made for parents.
Title: Re: German Federal Election 23rd February 2025
Post by: crazy canuck on February 10, 2025, 01:55:53 PM
Post by: crazy canuck on February 10, 2025, 01:55:53 PM
Quote from: Zanza on February 10, 2025, 01:53:26 PMIt will be interesting in two or so decades when virtually all countries in the world will face demographic collapse. By then only central Africa and some utter shitholes like Afghanistan will have surplus working age population.
Well, yes. The way we are going now, certainly. But I have some hope that our economic policies will change so that life becomes comfortable (affordable) enough for couples to have children again.
Title: Re: German Federal Election 23rd February 2025
Post by: Zanza on February 10, 2025, 01:59:11 PM
Post by: Zanza on February 10, 2025, 01:59:11 PM
Quote from: crazy canuck on February 10, 2025, 01:55:53 PMWhat makes you expect that? No country in the world has so far made such a turnaround. High fertility seems to only exist together with misery.Quote from: Zanza on February 10, 2025, 01:53:26 PMIt will be interesting in two or so decades when virtually all countries in the world will face demographic collapse. By then only central Africa and some utter shitholes like Afghanistan will have surplus working age population.
Well, yes. The way we are going now, certainly. But I have some hope that our economic policies will change so that life becomes comfortable (affordable) enough for couples to have children again.
Title: Re: German Federal Election 23rd February 2025
Post by: Threviel on February 10, 2025, 02:02:10 PM
Post by: Threviel on February 10, 2025, 02:02:10 PM
The republicans might succeed with their misogynistic attempts. No contraceptives might be the answer.
Title: Re: German Federal Election 23rd February 2025
Post by: crazy canuck on February 10, 2025, 02:19:36 PM
Post by: crazy canuck on February 10, 2025, 02:19:36 PM
Quote from: Zanza on February 10, 2025, 01:59:11 PMQuote from: crazy canuck on February 10, 2025, 01:55:53 PMWhat makes you expect that? No country in the world has so far made such a turnaround. High fertility seems to only exist together with misery.Quote from: Zanza on February 10, 2025, 01:53:26 PMIt will be interesting in two or so decades when virtually all countries in the world will face demographic collapse. By then only central Africa and some utter shitholes like Afghanistan will have surplus working age population.
Well, yes. The way we are going now, certainly. But I have some hope that our economic policies will change so that life becomes comfortable (affordable) enough for couples to have children again.
The height of Canadian birth rates was during the good times of the late 50s and 60s. Birth rates in the 70s declined a bit, but if we can get back to what, for some reason, is remembered as the bad old days, I would think that was a considerable improvement.
Title: Re: German Federal Election 23rd February 2025
Post by: Neil on February 10, 2025, 02:37:43 PM
Post by: Neil on February 10, 2025, 02:37:43 PM
Quote from: crazy canuck on February 10, 2025, 01:17:52 PMChildcare being in short supply doesn't justify bringing in parents. That's a permanent solution to a temporary problem. Parents aren't a solution to the childcare shortage amoungst Canadian citizens, so why would we think importing more would help?Quote from: Neil on February 10, 2025, 01:04:39 PMIt might be expensive, but it's not inadequate, and subsidizing daycare isn't as expensive as the lifetime and end-of-life healthcare costs of middle-aged third worlders.Childcare has been in short supply for at least the last 30 years, outside Quebec. Maybe longer, but I can only speak to what I know about from first hand experience.
I appreciate that the expense of childcare was a problem for you, but an immigrant bringing in their parents incurs costs in healthcare and income support that would be higher than subsidizing childcare, especially since you have to spend the money on childcare in any event.
Title: Re: German Federal Election 23rd February 2025
Post by: crazy canuck on February 10, 2025, 02:40:42 PM
Post by: crazy canuck on February 10, 2025, 02:40:42 PM
I am not sure you are understanding my point. It isn't that childcare is expensive. The point is that it is not available for all regardless of price. If you don't believe me, do a quick search of the waiting lists.
Title: Re: German Federal Election 23rd February 2025
Post by: Threviel on February 10, 2025, 02:43:26 PM
Post by: Threviel on February 10, 2025, 02:43:26 PM
Child care is not the solution. We have almost free child care here and, well, it doesn't seem to matter much.
Title: Re: German Federal Election 23rd February 2025
Post by: crazy canuck on February 10, 2025, 02:44:52 PM
Post by: crazy canuck on February 10, 2025, 02:44:52 PM
Quote from: Threviel on February 10, 2025, 02:43:26 PMChild care is not the solution. We have almost free child care here and, well, it doesn't seem to matter much.
Solution to what? Neil and I are talking about what would be the solution to not having adequate child care. Although Neil rejects the premise that we have inadequate child care.
Title: Re: German Federal Election 23rd February 2025
Post by: Zanza on February 10, 2025, 02:50:29 PM
Post by: Zanza on February 10, 2025, 02:50:29 PM
Quote from: Threviel on February 10, 2025, 02:02:10 PMThe republicans might succeed with their misogynistic attempts. No contraceptives might be the answer.I would put that under 'misery'. Not convinced it would have the desired effect either.
I am not really aware of whether there are countries that banned contraceptives and whether that turned around reproductive rates. Even a place like Afghanistan under the Taleban had falling birth rates. Iran had a small bump in the early 1980s when they introduced their theocracy, but it fell rapidly from the mid-80s.
Title: Re: German Federal Election 23rd February 2025
Post by: Threviel on February 10, 2025, 03:01:49 PM
Post by: Threviel on February 10, 2025, 03:01:49 PM
Quote from: crazy canuck on February 10, 2025, 02:44:52 PMQuote from: Threviel on February 10, 2025, 02:43:26 PMChild care is not the solution. We have almost free child care here and, well, it doesn't seem to matter much.
Solution to what? Neil and I are talking about what would be the solution to not having adequate child care. Although Neil rejects the premise that we have inadequate child care.
Sorry. To demographics.
Title: Re: German Federal Election 23rd February 2025
Post by: crazy canuck on February 10, 2025, 03:06:32 PM
Post by: crazy canuck on February 10, 2025, 03:06:32 PM
Quote from: Threviel on February 10, 2025, 03:01:49 PMQuote from: crazy canuck on February 10, 2025, 02:44:52 PMQuote from: Threviel on February 10, 2025, 02:43:26 PMChild care is not the solution. We have almost free child care here and, well, it doesn't seem to matter much.
Solution to what? Neil and I are talking about what would be the solution to not having adequate child care. Although Neil rejects the premise that we have inadequate child care.
Sorry. To demographics.
Oh, yeah certainly not a solution to demographics. A lot goes into that solution, including a properly functioning immigration system. But a side point is that the reason we allow young educated workers to immigrate is so that they will contribute to the workforce, so it is not logical to create disincentives for them to work when they have children and there is no available child care.
Title: Re: German Federal Election 23rd February 2025
Post by: Neil on February 10, 2025, 03:31:51 PM
Post by: Neil on February 10, 2025, 03:31:51 PM
Quote from: crazy canuck on February 10, 2025, 02:40:42 PMI am not sure you are understanding my point. It isn't that childcare is expensive. The point is that it is not available for all regardless of price. If you don't believe me, do a quick search of the waiting lists.There does seem to be some availability here. Maybe it's worse in the lower mainland. Either way, the issue must be resolved, and when you're bringing in the elderly you're getting a short term benefit for a few families at the cost of massive public expenses down the road.
Title: Re: German Federal Election 23rd February 2025
Post by: Barrister on February 10, 2025, 03:43:49 PM
Post by: Barrister on February 10, 2025, 03:43:49 PM
Quote from: crazy canuck on February 10, 2025, 02:19:36 PMQuote from: Zanza on February 10, 2025, 01:59:11 PMQuote from: crazy canuck on February 10, 2025, 01:55:53 PMWhat makes you expect that? No country in the world has so far made such a turnaround. High fertility seems to only exist together with misery.Quote from: Zanza on February 10, 2025, 01:53:26 PMIt will be interesting in two or so decades when virtually all countries in the world will face demographic collapse. By then only central Africa and some utter shitholes like Afghanistan will have surplus working age population.
Well, yes. The way we are going now, certainly. But I have some hope that our economic policies will change so that life becomes comfortable (affordable) enough for couples to have children again.
The height of Canadian birth rates was during the good times of the late 50s and 60s. Birth rates in the 70s declined a bit, but if we can get back to what, for some reason, is remembered as the bad old days, I would think that was a considerable improvement.
I don't wish to be disrespectful, but hormonal birth control was only introduced in 1960, which goes a long way to explain high birth rates in the 1950s and 1960s (when it was only just becoming normalized). It's also associated with wide-spread vaccination - in earlier decades you still had high birth rates, but equally high infant death rates.
Immigration is a useful stop-gap for low birth rates in the West, but as pointed out that's all it is.
Women's rights, subsidized child care, "baby bonuses" - all seem to have fairly minor effects on total fertility.
We just seem to have developed a culture that does not value raising children, and it's seen as purely optional. I have no idea how we change that.
My wife is one of three sisters. Each of them had three kids in turn. Now my kids, and my younger sister-in-law's kids, are too young to be having babies. But my older sister-in-law's kids (I can call her that - she's 7 days older than me) are in their 20s and 30s, and honestly with almost zero prospect of them having kids - either naturally, through adoption, or whatever. Almost all of their friends have no kids. It's just not something they seem to even consider.
Title: Re: German Federal Election 23rd February 2025
Post by: Threviel on February 10, 2025, 03:49:37 PM
Post by: Threviel on February 10, 2025, 03:49:37 PM
Yeah, it's an interesting problem. The only real long-term solution is increased nativity, but then there's the problem that there's a limit to how many humans the Earth can feed. A little demographic collapse isn't necessarily bad.
Title: Re: German Federal Election 23rd February 2025
Post by: Barrister on February 10, 2025, 03:50:38 PM
Post by: Barrister on February 10, 2025, 03:50:38 PM
Quote from: Neil on February 10, 2025, 03:31:51 PMQuote from: crazy canuck on February 10, 2025, 02:40:42 PMI am not sure you are understanding my point. It isn't that childcare is expensive. The point is that it is not available for all regardless of price. If you don't believe me, do a quick search of the waiting lists.There does seem to be some availability here. Maybe it's worse in the lower mainland. Either way, the issue must be resolved, and when you're bringing in the elderly you're getting a short term benefit for a few families at the cost of massive public expenses down the road.
I do have to say that as much as I just downplayed the cost of childcare - the cost of childcare is huge.
When our kids were younger we went through all the options - we did daycare, we did a nanny, and eventually my wife stayed home to run a dayhome for ours and other kids. We did the dayhome because her salary (and she's not a lawyer or anything but is a college graduate) went 80-90% to childcare costs.
The thing is though - having kids is really expensive. Even if you zero out the cost of childcare specifically - you need a larger home, food, clothes, and just the time and effort involved.
I don't see how raising kids would ever make sense - from a purely economic perspective. Even in the "who will look after you when you're old", surely the answer is to save money then hire caregivers when you're old.
It has to be something in the culture that makes us value children above and beyond the cost.
Title: Re: German Federal Election 23rd February 2025
Post by: Barrister on February 10, 2025, 03:51:41 PM
Post by: Barrister on February 10, 2025, 03:51:41 PM
Quote from: Threviel on February 10, 2025, 03:49:37 PMYeah, it's an interesting problem. The only real long-term solution is increased nativity, but then there's the problem that there's a limit to how many humans the Earth can feed. A little demographic collapse isn't necessarily bad.
It's actually pretty damn bad.
Title: Re: German Federal Election 23rd February 2025
Post by: Jacob on February 10, 2025, 03:53:02 PM
Post by: Jacob on February 10, 2025, 03:53:02 PM
Quote from: Threviel on February 10, 2025, 03:49:37 PMA little demographic collapse isn't necessarily bad.
I don't know if you're right about that, but I guess we (or our near descendants) will find out one way or the other.
Title: Re: German Federal Election 23rd February 2025
Post by: Valmy on February 10, 2025, 03:56:02 PM
Post by: Valmy on February 10, 2025, 03:56:02 PM
Quote from: Barrister on February 10, 2025, 03:43:49 PMWe just seem to have developed a culture that does not value raising children, and it's seen as purely optional. I have no idea how we change that.
Yeah it is not just a culture but an entire economic structure. Kids are expensive and everything associated with them is expensive. Plus there is tons of responsibility. And very little services and support outside of public schools which are a crapshoot depending on where you live. They could be great, and a wonderful asset to you as a parent, or they could be total garbage and another thing you have to struggle with.
So expect large expenses, lots of stress and hard work, and very little support. With nothing really in return besides the warm fuzzy feelings you get and even that is problematic because parenting is supposed to be done with the welfare of the kids in mind, not so you get warm fuzzies. Now I have very little interest in my family just being a bunch of olds as I age towards the sweet release of death so I will shoulder these burdens but I can certainly see people looking at this and thinking "yeah, no thanks." Life is tough enough just covering your own needs.
I wasn't around back when each woman had an average of four children so I don't know how things were back then or what those incentives were. But it can be a pretty thankless job these days.
Title: Re: German Federal Election 23rd February 2025
Post by: Valmy on February 10, 2025, 03:56:36 PM
Post by: Valmy on February 10, 2025, 03:56:36 PM
Quote from: Barrister on February 10, 2025, 03:51:41 PMQuote from: Threviel on February 10, 2025, 03:49:37 PMYeah, it's an interesting problem. The only real long-term solution is increased nativity, but then there's the problem that there's a limit to how many humans the Earth can feed. A little demographic collapse isn't necessarily bad.
It's actually pretty damn bad.
The only thing worse is a demographic explosion.
Title: Re: German Federal Election 23rd February 2025
Post by: Sheilbh on February 10, 2025, 06:23:42 PM
Post by: Sheilbh on February 10, 2025, 06:23:42 PM
Quote from: Threviel on February 10, 2025, 01:29:54 PMDemographics wise immigration is not the answer either. In Sweden, once an immigrant family becomes integrated their demographic collapses like everyone else, I assume that holds true everywhere.It's probably worth noting the global demographics - because it's not just Europe:
(https://www.thelancet.com/cms/10.1016/S0140-6736(24)00550-6/asset/bdd0a7fd-bf00-4b3f-a855-fd8e917fa69a/main.assets/gr1.jpg)
It's really striking but the world has been speed-running declines in birth rates that took rich European countries decades to achieve. I've no idea what this world looks like or if there's any "fix" to it.
I think it's slightly worrying that it is another area where Silicon Valley types have (terrifying) ideas.
Title: Re: German Federal Election 23rd February 2025
Post by: Valmy on February 10, 2025, 06:43:24 PM
Post by: Valmy on February 10, 2025, 06:43:24 PM
Yeah I have been saying that for awhile. The immigration issue is eventually going to go away very organically. All those right wing freaks worrying about being replaced can rest easy. Nobody is having babies anymore.
Well expect me, I had three.
Well expect me, I had three.
Title: Re: German Federal Election 23rd February 2025
Post by: Jacob on February 10, 2025, 06:45:45 PM
Post by: Jacob on February 10, 2025, 06:45:45 PM
I assume "high income" is just a different way to say "Western Europe + US + Canada"?
Title: Re: German Federal Election 23rd February 2025
Post by: Sheilbh on February 10, 2025, 06:52:55 PM
Post by: Sheilbh on February 10, 2025, 06:52:55 PM
Quote from: Jacob on February 10, 2025, 06:45:45 PMI assume "high income" is just a different way to say "Western Europe + US + Canada"?So I looked it up - that chart is from the Lancet and those categories are the "GBD Super-Regions" which is apparently "Global Burden of Disease" super-regions. Which is a bit more nuanced and unusual than I'd expected. Map below with super-regions and the regions within them:
(https://www.researchgate.net/publication/233955589/figure/fig1/AS:339751765856257@1458014541154/Map-of-the-21-GBD-regions-GBD-Global-Burden-of-Disease-Risk-Factors-and-Injuries.png)
Title: Re: German Federal Election 23rd February 2025
Post by: Admiral Yi on February 10, 2025, 07:40:28 PM
Post by: Admiral Yi on February 10, 2025, 07:40:28 PM
Quote from: Valmy on February 10, 2025, 10:01:04 AMOk what is the principle involved? I figured that the reason we support immigration is because it is good for the country. Bring in more workers and enrich the country with new cultural influences. But if immigration becomes bad for the country, it empowers far right political forces or suppresses wages or whatever, then immigration should be limited. Right? Or is there some reason immigration should be embraced regardless of whether or not it is otherwise good for the country? Like the principle of the free movement of labor?
Humanitarianism. Being nice to people. Improving people's lives.
Title: Re: German Federal Election 23rd February 2025
Post by: Duque de Bragança on February 11, 2025, 01:23:17 PM
Post by: Duque de Bragança on February 11, 2025, 01:23:17 PM
Quote from: Valmy on February 10, 2025, 06:43:24 PMYeah I have been saying that for awhile. The immigration issue is eventually going to go away very organically. All those right wing freaks worrying about being replaced can rest easy. Nobody is having babies anymore.
Well expect me, I had three.
Do you expect to have more?! :P
Title: Re: German Federal Election 23rd February 2025
Post by: Valmy on February 11, 2025, 01:30:28 PM
Post by: Valmy on February 11, 2025, 01:30:28 PM
Quote from: Duque de Bragança on February 11, 2025, 01:23:17 PMDo you expect to have more?! :P
Whoops. I mean except.
Title: Re: German Federal Election 23rd February 2025
Post by: Valmy on February 11, 2025, 01:31:07 PM
Post by: Valmy on February 11, 2025, 01:31:07 PM
Quote from: Admiral Yi on February 10, 2025, 07:40:28 PMQuote from: Valmy on February 10, 2025, 10:01:04 AMOk what is the principle involved? I figured that the reason we support immigration is because it is good for the country. Bring in more workers and enrich the country with new cultural influences. But if immigration becomes bad for the country, it empowers far right political forces or suppresses wages or whatever, then immigration should be limited. Right? Or is there some reason immigration should be embraced regardless of whether or not it is otherwise good for the country? Like the principle of the free movement of labor?
Humanitarianism. Being nice to people. Improving people's lives.
Sure. But can we guarantee that would be the outcome for those immigrants if the far right takes over?
Title: Re: German Federal Election 23rd February 2025
Post by: crazy canuck on February 11, 2025, 01:32:20 PM
Post by: crazy canuck on February 11, 2025, 01:32:20 PM
I am struggling to think of a country that had an immigration policy based on being nice to people.
Title: Re: German Federal Election 23rd February 2025
Post by: Crazy_Ivan80 on February 11, 2025, 03:55:26 PM
Post by: Crazy_Ivan80 on February 11, 2025, 03:55:26 PM
Quote from: Valmy on February 11, 2025, 01:31:07 PMQuote from: Admiral Yi on February 10, 2025, 07:40:28 PMQuote from: Valmy on February 10, 2025, 10:01:04 AMOk what is the principle involved? I figured that the reason we support immigration is because it is good for the country. Bring in more workers and enrich the country with new cultural influences. But if immigration becomes bad for the country, it empowers far right political forces or suppresses wages or whatever, then immigration should be limited. Right? Or is there some reason immigration should be embraced regardless of whether or not it is otherwise good for the country? Like the principle of the free movement of labor?
Humanitarianism. Being nice to people. Improving people's lives.
Sure. But can we guarantee that would be the outcome for those immigrants if the far right takes over?
or for the host society even if extremists don't take over. It's not like immigrants leave their medieval ideas behind when they cross the border. Let in enough people that believe gays should be killed and your society will become like that.
Title: Re: German Federal Election 23rd February 2025
Post by: Sheilbh on February 11, 2025, 04:20:36 PM
Post by: Sheilbh on February 11, 2025, 04:20:36 PM
Quote from: crazy canuck on February 11, 2025, 01:32:20 PMI am struggling to think of a country that had an immigration policy based on being nice to people.It's not immigration, but when you go through passport control in Georgia they give you a complementary (small) bottle of wine :)
Title: Re: German Federal Election 23rd February 2025
Post by: crazy canuck on February 11, 2025, 05:11:56 PM
Post by: crazy canuck on February 11, 2025, 05:11:56 PM
Quote from: Sheilbh on February 11, 2025, 04:20:36 PMQuote from: crazy canuck on February 11, 2025, 01:32:20 PMI am struggling to think of a country that had an immigration policy based on being nice to people.It's not immigration, but when you go through passport control in Georgia they give you a complementary (small) bottle of wine :)
You're right, that is tourism marketing at its finest.
Title: Re: German Federal Election 23rd February 2025
Post by: Zanza on February 15, 2025, 01:19:07 PM
Post by: Zanza on February 15, 2025, 01:19:07 PM
There was another terror attack where a young Afghan living here in asylum drove a car into crowd in Munich. A mother and her two year old child died.
To be honest, the state looks incompetent and weak when it comes to handling this. And people - including myself here - are sick of it. There needs to be action.
I guess that will be decisive in the election.
To be honest, the state looks incompetent and weak when it comes to handling this. And people - including myself here - are sick of it. There needs to be action.
I guess that will be decisive in the election.
Title: Re: German Federal Election 23rd February 2025
Post by: garbon on February 15, 2025, 04:56:30 PM
Post by: garbon on February 15, 2025, 04:56:30 PM
What was the deal with how he was denied asylum but had valid work permit?
Title: Re: German Federal Election 23rd February 2025
Post by: Syt on February 18, 2025, 04:26:52 PM
Post by: Syt on February 18, 2025, 04:26:52 PM
AfD hasn't received many donations from supporters (at least above €35k, which is considered Large Contribution in German law and most be laid open where it came from), but three close to or notably over €1M. One is from a doctor who got "popular" as anti-Covid-vaxxer. The biggest, at over €2.6M comes from an Austrian in Vorarlberg who used to be a high ranking functionary of the FPÖ in the state ages ago.
He says that the money comes from his private wealth (his family is said to be quite well off). However, investigations by Austrian and German authorities have traced a monetary "gift" from Swiss-German enterpreneur Henning Conle to the Austrian which would match the amount of the AfD donation. Supposedly the Austrian said to his bank that it's meant for a "real estate investment." If true, it would be a problem for AfD, because a) it's illegal funneling party donations of this size through strawmen to hide the actual donor and b) an illegal donation from a non-EU country.
Incidentally, Henning Conle seems to have a history in that regard: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Henning_Conle
(If not true, I clearly have the wrong friends, i.e. not the ones that gift millions of Euros to buddies to invest in something :P )
He says that the money comes from his private wealth (his family is said to be quite well off). However, investigations by Austrian and German authorities have traced a monetary "gift" from Swiss-German enterpreneur Henning Conle to the Austrian which would match the amount of the AfD donation. Supposedly the Austrian said to his bank that it's meant for a "real estate investment." If true, it would be a problem for AfD, because a) it's illegal funneling party donations of this size through strawmen to hide the actual donor and b) an illegal donation from a non-EU country.
Incidentally, Henning Conle seems to have a history in that regard: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Henning_Conle
(If not true, I clearly have the wrong friends, i.e. not the ones that gift millions of Euros to buddies to invest in something :P )
Title: Re: German Federal Election 23rd February 2025
Post by: HisMajestyBOB on February 18, 2025, 11:01:19 PM
Post by: HisMajestyBOB on February 18, 2025, 11:01:19 PM
Better do something about their illegal activities before they win.
Title: Re: German Federal Election 23rd February 2025
Post by: Valmy on February 19, 2025, 06:35:05 PM
Post by: Valmy on February 19, 2025, 06:35:05 PM
So supposedly 'Die Linke' (obligatory 'it's German for The Link' 'Nobody who speaks German could be an evil party') is becoming more popular and is no longer a Putin puppet. What is that all about?
Title: Re: German Federal Election 23rd February 2025
Post by: Zanza on February 19, 2025, 06:42:23 PM
Post by: Zanza on February 19, 2025, 06:42:23 PM
The Putinists left and created the BSW party. The remaining party is fairly moderate. Social democrats and Greens fared poorly in the last administration, but there is still people who like leftish politics.
Title: Re: German Federal Election 23rd February 2025
Post by: Duque de Bragança on February 20, 2025, 08:24:59 AM
Post by: Duque de Bragança on February 20, 2025, 08:24:59 AM
Die Linke is still a DDR-ostalgist leftist party so Putin stooges as well. Not moderates. For moderates, that's the SPD.
Difference with BSW is that BSW does not care about woke issues, pretty much the opposite, and is not pro mass immigration.
Difference with BSW is that BSW does not care about woke issues, pretty much the opposite, and is not pro mass immigration.
Title: Re: German Federal Election 23rd February 2025
Post by: Syt on February 21, 2025, 05:00:14 PM
Post by: Syt on February 21, 2025, 05:00:14 PM
(https://i.imgur.com/bIBiKz2.png)
Title: Re: German Federal Election 23rd February 2025
Post by: Zanza on February 21, 2025, 05:04:23 PM
Post by: Zanza on February 21, 2025, 05:04:23 PM
Of all the things he could have said wishing us luck is rather positive.
Title: Re: German Federal Election 23rd February 2025
Post by: crazy canuck on February 21, 2025, 05:07:13 PM
Post by: crazy canuck on February 21, 2025, 05:07:13 PM
Quote from: Zanza on February 21, 2025, 05:04:23 PMOf all the things he could have said wishing us luck is rather positive.
:D
Title: Re: German Federal Election 23rd February 2025
Post by: Josquius on February 21, 2025, 06:34:58 PM
Post by: Josquius on February 21, 2025, 06:34:58 PM
Quote from: Duque de Bragança on February 20, 2025, 08:24:59 AMDie Linke is still a DDR-ostalgist leftist party so Putin stooges as well. Not moderates. For moderates, that's the SPD.
Difference with BSW is that BSW does not care about woke issues, pretty much the opposite, and is not pro mass immigration.
I don't think it's that simple. As Zanza says Die Linke had some infighting and a big split over Ukraine .
They're also pretty split on immigration - I'm sure none of them are pro mass immigration, what with that not being a thing.
Title: Re: German Federal Election 23rd February 2025
Post by: Valmy on February 21, 2025, 06:42:52 PM
Post by: Valmy on February 21, 2025, 06:42:52 PM
Trump I really don't think Ukraine is going to sign over anything to you based on that peace agreement you made with Russia.
Title: Re: German Federal Election 23rd February 2025
Post by: Legbiter on February 22, 2025, 07:58:28 PM
Post by: Legbiter on February 22, 2025, 07:58:28 PM
Quote from: Duque de Bragança on February 20, 2025, 08:24:59 AMDie Linke is still a DDR-ostalgist leftist party so Putin stooges as well. Not moderates. For moderates, that's the SPD.
Difference with BSW is that BSW does not care about woke issues, pretty much the opposite, and is not pro mass immigration.
Looking at polls it looks like Die Linke and BSW will gain some Bundestag seats. AFD will do better due to shy polls slightly behind CDU...
A) So basically Merz of CDU breaks the Brandmauer (firewall) and cooperates with AfD, sparking possible riots from the very worst people you could ever imagine aside from Islamists.
B) Merz forms a chaos rainbow coalition of 4 disagreeing deadlock parties, whose every action will be pure agony. The Brandmauer will be preserved. Hooray.... :shutup:
Title: Re: German Federal Election 23rd February 2025
Post by: Valmy on February 22, 2025, 10:49:30 PM
Post by: Valmy on February 22, 2025, 10:49:30 PM
Tomorrow is the big day. Though I guess it already is the big day in Germany.
Dreading the bad news.
Dreading the bad news.
Title: Re: German Federal Election 23rd February 2025
Post by: Zanza on February 22, 2025, 11:08:24 PM
Post by: Zanza on February 22, 2025, 11:08:24 PM
Quote from: Legbiter on February 22, 2025, 07:58:28 PMA) So basically Merz of CDU breaks the Brandmauer (firewall) and cooperates with AfD, sparking possible riots from the very worst people you could ever imagine aside from Islamists.It is an illusion that A is more stable than B. Both CDU/CSU and AFD have internal factions that would not support such a coalition.
B) Merz forms a chaos rainbow coalition of 4 disagreeing deadlock parties, whose every action will be pure agony. The Brandmauer will be preserved. Hooray.... :shutup:
Title: Re: German Federal Election 23rd February 2025
Post by: Syt on February 23, 2025, 12:45:30 AM
Post by: Syt on February 23, 2025, 12:45:30 AM
Quote from: Legbiter on February 22, 2025, 07:58:28 PMA) So basically Merz of CDU breaks the Brandmauer (firewall) and cooperates with AfD, sparking possible riots from the very worst people you could ever imagine aside from Islamists.
Not sure why neo-nazis would riot in such a scenario. :huh:
Title: Re: German Federal Election 23rd February 2025
Post by: Zanza on February 23, 2025, 05:23:14 AM
Post by: Zanza on February 23, 2025, 05:23:14 AM
Did my part. Hard to pick this time.
Title: Re: German Federal Election 23rd February 2025
Post by: Maladict on February 23, 2025, 09:05:09 AM
Post by: Maladict on February 23, 2025, 09:05:09 AM
Fingers crossed
Title: Re: German Federal Election 23rd February 2025
Post by: Syt on February 23, 2025, 09:20:10 AM
Post by: Syt on February 23, 2025, 09:20:10 AM
Quote from: Zanza on February 23, 2025, 05:23:14 AMDid my part. Hard to pick this time.
Me too some time ago. Voting from abroad is a bit of a hassle (have to declare my intent with the last Meldeamt I was registered at who then send me the mail voting stuff - no option to do any of this through the embassy <_< , rinse and repeat every federal election).
Title: Re: German Federal Election 23rd February 2025
Post by: Crazy_Ivan80 on February 23, 2025, 10:40:38 AM
Post by: Crazy_Ivan80 on February 23, 2025, 10:40:38 AM
Any results or exit polls yet?
Title: Re: German Federal Election 23rd February 2025
Post by: Zanza on February 23, 2025, 11:11:37 AM
Post by: Zanza on February 23, 2025, 11:11:37 AM
Quote from: Crazy_Ivan80 on February 23, 2025, 10:40:38 AMAny results or exit polls yet?No, only after six PM.
Participation in polling stations higher than last time - but that was during the pandemic.
Title: Re: German Federal Election 23rd February 2025
Post by: Zanza on February 23, 2025, 11:19:01 AM
Post by: Zanza on February 23, 2025, 11:19:01 AM
Quote from: Syt on February 23, 2025, 09:20:10 AMThe German ambassador in London wrote that he did not get his mail-in ballot in time. Awkward.Quote from: Zanza on February 23, 2025, 05:23:14 AMDid my part. Hard to pick this time.
Me too some time ago. Voting from abroad is a bit of a hassle (have to declare my intent with the last Meldeamt I was registered at who then send me the mail voting stuff - no option to do any of this through the embassy <_< , rinse and repeat every federal election).
Title: Re: German Federal Election 23rd February 2025
Post by: Josquius on February 23, 2025, 11:25:40 AM
Post by: Josquius on February 23, 2025, 11:25:40 AM
Quote from: Syt on February 23, 2025, 12:45:30 AMQuote from: Legbiter on February 22, 2025, 07:58:28 PMA) So basically Merz of CDU breaks the Brandmauer (firewall) and cooperates with AfD, sparking possible riots from the very worst people you could ever imagine aside from Islamists.
Not sure why neo-nazis would riot in such a scenario. :huh:
"Hurray we won. We can do whatever we want now. Let's burn some Muslims"?
Title: Re: German Federal Election 23rd February 2025
Post by: Zanza on February 23, 2025, 12:02:59 PM
Post by: Zanza on February 23, 2025, 12:02:59 PM
Result is as expected, but it is not clear whether BSW and FDP passed the five percent cut-off.
Title: Re: German Federal Election 23rd February 2025
Post by: Zanza on February 23, 2025, 12:06:19 PM
Post by: Zanza on February 23, 2025, 12:06:19 PM
Turnout is at 84%, the highest since German reunification.
Title: Re: German Federal Election 23rd February 2025
Post by: Threviel on February 23, 2025, 12:12:22 PM
Post by: Threviel on February 23, 2025, 12:12:22 PM
What's the probable government? CDU+SPD?
Title: Re: German Federal Election 23rd February 2025
Post by: Zanza on February 23, 2025, 12:16:03 PM
Post by: Zanza on February 23, 2025, 12:16:03 PM
Quote from: Threviel on February 23, 2025, 12:12:22 PMWhat's the probable government? CDU+SPD?Unclear. Depends on which parties get in. If FDP and BSW are not in, CDU+SPD is likely. If they are in, who knows.
Title: Re: German Federal Election 23rd February 2025
Post by: Maladict on February 23, 2025, 12:19:10 PM
Post by: Maladict on February 23, 2025, 12:19:10 PM
Quote from: Zanza on February 23, 2025, 12:16:03 PMQuote from: Threviel on February 23, 2025, 12:12:22 PMWhat's the probable government? CDU+SPD?Unclear. Depends on which parties get in. If FDP and BSW are not in, CDU+SPD is likely. If they are in, who knows.
Will they have enough for a majority if FDP and BDW don't make it?
Title: Re: German Federal Election 23rd February 2025
Post by: Zanza on February 23, 2025, 12:25:14 PM
Post by: Zanza on February 23, 2025, 12:25:14 PM
Yes
Title: Re: German Federal Election 23rd February 2025
Post by: Josquius on February 23, 2025, 12:31:37 PM
Post by: Josquius on February 23, 2025, 12:31:37 PM
Exit polls looking promising?
Sure nazis in second place technically.... But add the two far lefts together and it's them.
Mainstream parties first and third.
Sure nazis in second place technically.... But add the two far lefts together and it's them.
Mainstream parties first and third.
Title: Re: German Federal Election 23rd February 2025
Post by: Maladict on February 23, 2025, 12:34:11 PM
Post by: Maladict on February 23, 2025, 12:34:11 PM
Quote from: Josquius on February 23, 2025, 12:31:37 PMExit polls looking promising?
Sure nazis in second place technically.... But add the two far lefts together and it's them.
Mainstream parties first and third.
Yeah, extreme parties take roughly half the vote but everything is fine.
Title: Re: German Federal Election 23rd February 2025
Post by: Duque de Bragança on February 23, 2025, 12:38:47 PM
Post by: Duque de Bragança on February 23, 2025, 12:38:47 PM
Quote from: Maladict on February 23, 2025, 12:34:11 PMQuote from: Josquius on February 23, 2025, 12:31:37 PMExit polls looking promising?
Sure nazis in second place technically.... But add the two far lefts together and it's them.
Mainstream parties first and third.
Yeah, extreme parties take roughly half the vote but everything is fine.
Alles klar. Alles in Ordnung!
Title: Re: German Federal Election 23rd February 2025
Post by: Josquius on February 23, 2025, 12:44:13 PM
Post by: Josquius on February 23, 2025, 12:44:13 PM
Quote from: Maladict on February 23, 2025, 12:34:11 PMQuote from: Josquius on February 23, 2025, 12:31:37 PMExit polls looking promising?
Sure nazis in second place technically.... But add the two far lefts together and it's them.
Mainstream parties first and third.
Yeah, extreme parties take roughly half the vote but everything is fine.
Extremes that cancel each other out.
And the German Greens from what I've seen seem rather good except for the anti nuclear stuff.
Even the left, as disagreeable as you may find them, aren't anti democracy the way the fasc are.
Title: Re: German Federal Election 23rd February 2025
Post by: Threviel on February 23, 2025, 12:55:40 PM
Post by: Threviel on February 23, 2025, 12:55:40 PM
Extreme parties below 30%. 20 on the right and 10 on the left.
It's about par for Europe these days.
It's about par for Europe these days.
Title: Re: German Federal Election 23rd February 2025
Post by: Zanza on February 23, 2025, 01:16:49 PM
Post by: Zanza on February 23, 2025, 01:16:49 PM
The Left Party success is the most surprising result of this election. Will be interesting how they will evolve in the next years after being reinvigorated in this election.
I don't have a clear impression of what they stand for these days and how radical or moderate they are these days. A lot of their crazies went to the BSW.
I don't have a clear impression of what they stand for these days and how radical or moderate they are these days. A lot of their crazies went to the BSW.
Title: Re: German Federal Election 23rd February 2025
Post by: Zanza on February 23, 2025, 01:38:04 PM
Post by: Zanza on February 23, 2025, 01:38:04 PM
At the moment it looks like the FDP might not make it, but BSW might. That's just about worst case as it means there is no viable centrist coalition, as the conservatives and the Greens are unlikely to find common ground. :bleeding:
Title: Re: German Federal Election 23rd February 2025
Post by: Norgy on February 23, 2025, 01:59:15 PM
Post by: Norgy on February 23, 2025, 01:59:15 PM
A Grand Coalition is bound to play into the anti-"establishment" bluster of the AfD.
The Progress Party, although not very far right, was brought into government here in 2013 and it was a bit comical.
The Progress Party, although not very far right, was brought into government here in 2013 and it was a bit comical.
Title: Re: German Federal Election 23rd February 2025
Post by: Maladict on February 23, 2025, 02:36:07 PM
Post by: Maladict on February 23, 2025, 02:36:07 PM
Minority government?
Title: Re: German Federal Election 23rd February 2025
Post by: Valmy on February 23, 2025, 02:54:54 PM
Post by: Valmy on February 23, 2025, 02:54:54 PM
Quote from: Maladict on February 23, 2025, 02:36:07 PMMinority government?
BSW hasn't made it yet.
Title: Re: German Federal Election 23rd February 2025
Post by: Josquius on February 23, 2025, 04:09:33 PM
Post by: Josquius on February 23, 2025, 04:09:33 PM
f26f123a-0fb8-411c-a82f-0239c96f3e29.png
Title: Re: German Federal Election 23rd February 2025
Post by: Zanza on February 23, 2025, 04:14:33 PM
Post by: Zanza on February 23, 2025, 04:14:33 PM
The Left has a social media savvy party leader who is 'only' 36 years old. Apparently she made the difference.
Title: Re: German Federal Election 23rd February 2025
Post by: crazy canuck on February 23, 2025, 05:43:02 PM
Post by: crazy canuck on February 23, 2025, 05:43:02 PM
You know you're living in odd times when you feel it comforting to hear a new German leader say that his first priority is to strengthen the military, but here we are.
Title: Re: German Federal Election 23rd February 2025
Post by: Tonitrus on February 23, 2025, 06:44:03 PM
Post by: Tonitrus on February 23, 2025, 06:44:03 PM
Stronger military is nice...stealing out thunder and taking up the "arsenal of democracy" would be good too.
Scribes allowed...
Scribes allowed...
Title: Re: German Federal Election 23rd February 2025
Post by: Valmy on February 23, 2025, 08:13:21 PM
Post by: Valmy on February 23, 2025, 08:13:21 PM
Looks like the SPD and CDU/CSU combine for enough to form a government.
Trump congratulated the CDU/CSU as if they are a party aligned with him...
Trump congratulated the CDU/CSU as if they are a party aligned with him...
Title: Re: German Federal Election 23rd February 2025
Post by: Valmy on February 23, 2025, 09:22:40 PM
Post by: Valmy on February 23, 2025, 09:22:40 PM
Remember when the Soviets used to attack the Western Allies for failing to de-Nazify their zone? Well...
Everywhere outside of West Germany and West Berlin seems pretty Nazi
(https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/6/6b/2025_German_federal_election.svg/1024px-2025_German_federal_election.svg.png)
Everywhere outside of West Germany and West Berlin seems pretty Nazi
(https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/6/6b/2025_German_federal_election.svg/1024px-2025_German_federal_election.svg.png)
Title: Re: German Federal Election 23rd February 2025
Post by: Tonitrus on February 23, 2025, 09:53:34 PM
Post by: Tonitrus on February 23, 2025, 09:53:34 PM
More interesting (I know, not really news to us here) is how it matches up with household income; in the old West, depressed income seems to bring those to the left...in the old East...to the right.
(https://nielseniq.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/4/2024/09/202209_mom_1200_.jpg)
And perhaps "Nazi" is not fair, especially considering AfD's affinity towards Putin. Kind of an authoritarian-Communist frankenstein.
(https://nielseniq.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/4/2024/09/202209_mom_1200_.jpg)
And perhaps "Nazi" is not fair, especially considering AfD's affinity towards Putin. Kind of an authoritarian-Communist frankenstein.
Title: Re: German Federal Election 23rd February 2025
Post by: Valmy on February 23, 2025, 10:33:20 PM
Post by: Valmy on February 23, 2025, 10:33:20 PM
Quote from: Tonitrus on February 23, 2025, 09:53:34 PMAnd perhaps "Nazi" is not fair, especially considering AfD's affinity towards Putin. Kind of an authoritarian-Communist frankenstein.
Even if they are not Nazis they have said things that suggest they are fans.
I did find it rather chilling that Thuringia was the first state they took power in, the exact place the Nazis first were elected to power.
What the hell is going on in Thuringia?
Title: Re: German Federal Election 23rd February 2025
Post by: Zoupa on February 23, 2025, 11:31:22 PM
Post by: Zoupa on February 23, 2025, 11:31:22 PM
russia in 2025 resembles Nazi Germany much more than it does the Soviet Union. The AfD is clearly fascist and loves their nazi dog whistles.
Title: Re: German Federal Election 23rd February 2025
Post by: Zanza on February 23, 2025, 11:41:33 PM
Post by: Zanza on February 23, 2025, 11:41:33 PM
What Zoupa said.
And their economic policy is more Milei or Musk, i.e. unfettered capitalism without a social state. So not communist.
And their economic policy is more Milei or Musk, i.e. unfettered capitalism without a social state. So not communist.
Title: Re: German Federal Election 23rd February 2025
Post by: Zanza on February 23, 2025, 11:45:03 PM
Post by: Zanza on February 23, 2025, 11:45:03 PM
The BSW missing out by 0.03% might be a saving grace.
At least now a CDU+SPD coalition is feasible. But Merz does not seem to understand that he has to compromise his positions if he wants to convince the SPD, especially after their worst ever result. Not sure if he is capable of that.
At least now a CDU+SPD coalition is feasible. But Merz does not seem to understand that he has to compromise his positions if he wants to convince the SPD, especially after their worst ever result. Not sure if he is capable of that.
Title: Re: German Federal Election 23rd February 2025
Post by: Valmy on February 24, 2025, 12:25:06 AM
Post by: Valmy on February 24, 2025, 12:25:06 AM
What choice does he have though? There is no other feasible option.
Title: Re: German Federal Election 23rd February 2025
Post by: Tonitrus on February 24, 2025, 12:41:04 AM
Post by: Tonitrus on February 24, 2025, 12:41:04 AM
Quote from: Zanza on February 23, 2025, 11:41:33 PMWhat Zoupa said.
And their economic policy is more Milei or Musk, i.e. unfettered capitalism without a social state. So not communist.
I didn't mean to imply AfD is for communist economics...just the authoritarian part.
In the past, wasn't SPD formally popular in the former East? How much are AfD voters really thinking about their economic platform, and more doing the one-issue thing on immigration/migrants (and significantly ignoring the economic part, much like our MAGA voters)?
Title: Re: German Federal Election 23rd February 2025
Post by: Syt on February 24, 2025, 02:09:33 AM
Post by: Syt on February 24, 2025, 02:09:33 AM
(https://i.imgur.com/cJEIg9S.png)
Title: Re: German Federal Election 23rd February 2025
Post by: Richard Hakluyt on February 24, 2025, 02:09:55 AM
Post by: Richard Hakluyt on February 24, 2025, 02:09:55 AM
Seems to me that economic inequality turns the losers into fascists which is then exploited by the unscrupulous and amoral.
Title: Re: German Federal Election 23rd February 2025
Post by: Josquius on February 24, 2025, 02:13:21 AM
Post by: Josquius on February 24, 2025, 02:13:21 AM
I've heard that the maps of Germany showing the nazi east are unfair, with most afd voters being in the west, and with the way the German system works that's what counts, not winning seats as in the UK.
True?
Reminds me of the brexit vote... The north got all the blame because of the maps when most fascists were down south
Also interesting. Expected but now showing for real.
31b32eff-bc6f-4083-a039-97fc546bf9ae.png
Nazi boys are a real problem.
And less expected, sad to see girls not voting green as they were predicted to.
True?
Reminds me of the brexit vote... The north got all the blame because of the maps when most fascists were down south
Also interesting. Expected but now showing for real.
31b32eff-bc6f-4083-a039-97fc546bf9ae.png
Nazi boys are a real problem.
And less expected, sad to see girls not voting green as they were predicted to.
Title: Re: German Federal Election 23rd February 2025
Post by: Crazy_Ivan80 on February 24, 2025, 02:28:11 AM
Post by: Crazy_Ivan80 on February 24, 2025, 02:28:11 AM
Quote from: Tonitrus on February 23, 2025, 06:44:03 PMStronger military is nice...stealing out thunder and taking up the "arsenal of democracy" would be good too.
Scribes allowed...
Would be a good redemption arc
Title: Re: German Federal Election 23rd February 2025
Post by: Solmyr on February 24, 2025, 03:17:59 AM
Post by: Solmyr on February 24, 2025, 03:17:59 AM
Quote from: Valmy on February 24, 2025, 12:25:06 AMWhat choice does he have though? There is no other feasible option.
Do what the conservatives did 100 years ago and accept the Nazis into government because "we can control them". It's what the conservatives here in Finland did two years ago. :P
Title: Re: German Federal Election 23rd February 2025
Post by: Tonitrus on February 24, 2025, 11:49:06 AM
Post by: Tonitrus on February 24, 2025, 11:49:06 AM
Quote from: Richard Hakluyt on February 24, 2025, 02:09:55 AMSeems to me that economic inequality turns the losers into fascists which is then exploited by the unscrupulous and amoral.
But what explains the more economic disadvantaged areas in the old West going left instead of right? Longer democratic tradition maybe? :hmm:
Title: Re: German Federal Election 23rd February 2025
Post by: Zanza on February 24, 2025, 12:39:36 PM
Post by: Zanza on February 24, 2025, 12:39:36 PM
Quote from: Tonitrus on February 24, 2025, 12:41:04 AMTheir authoritarian ideology derives from the Führerprinzip and related concepts like social darwinism. Not from the Marxist-Leninist political theory that underpins the authoritarian ideology of communist parties.Quote from: Zanza on February 23, 2025, 11:41:33 PMWhat Zoupa said.
And their economic policy is more Milei or Musk, i.e. unfettered capitalism without a social state. So not communist.
I didn't mean to imply AfD is for communist economics...just the authoritarian part.
QuoteIn the past, wasn't SPD formally popular in the former East?Between 1998 and 2006 apparently, but not since:
(https://www.bpb.de/cache/images/9/310309_article_side.jpg?835A1)
QuoteHow much are AfD voters really thinking about their economic platform, and more doing the one-issue thing on immigration/migrants (and significantly ignoring the economic part, much like our MAGA voters)?There are many different motivations for their voters, so that is hard to answer. Immigration, inflation, not feeling respected or heard, anti-wokeness, racism, anti-elitism, preference for authoritarian decisions over democratic consensus building etc.
Similar to the broad coalition that brought Trump to power really.
Title: Re: German Federal Election 23rd February 2025
Post by: Zanza on February 24, 2025, 12:42:22 PM
Post by: Zanza on February 24, 2025, 12:42:22 PM
Quote from: Richard Hakluyt on February 24, 2025, 02:09:55 AMSeems to me that economic inequality turns the losers into fascists which is then exploited by the unscrupulous and amoral.The AfD gets support from all parts of society, but maybe re than average from low to mid educated people. Not the poorest, but lower income, fearing personal economic decline. Basically the classic petit bourgeoisie.
Title: Re: German Federal Election 23rd February 2025
Post by: Valmy on February 24, 2025, 12:45:16 PM
Post by: Valmy on February 24, 2025, 12:45:16 PM
Quote from: Zanza on February 24, 2025, 12:42:22 PMThe AfD gets support from all parts of society, but maybe re than average from low to mid educated people. Not the poorest, but lower income, fearing personal economic decline. Basically the classic petit bourgeoisie.
The Bonapartist coalition! At least according to Marx.
Title: Re: German Federal Election 23rd February 2025
Post by: Zanza on February 24, 2025, 12:46:30 PM
Post by: Zanza on February 24, 2025, 12:46:30 PM
Quote from: Josquius on February 24, 2025, 02:13:21 AMI've heard that the maps of Germany showing the nazi east are unfair, with most afd voters being in the west, and with the way the German system works that's what counts, not winning seats as in the UK.West Germany has five times the population, so in absolute terms the AfD might get more votes from the West. But virtually all their parliamentarians got in via first-past-the-post in their constituency. However due to how the German election system works, the total number of seats in parliament are only determined by the relative share of votes across the nation.
True?
Reminds me of the brexit vote... The north got all the blame because of the maps when most fascists were down south
Also interesting. Expected but now showing for real.
31b32eff-bc6f-4083-a039-97fc546bf9ae.png
Nazi boys are a real problem.
And less expected, sad to see girls not voting green as they were predicted to.
The Left has a very popular young woman as front runner (Heidi Reichinnek). I guess she made the difference and could appeal better to young women than the top candidate for the Greens, a fifty plus man.
Title: Re: German Federal Election 23rd February 2025
Post by: Zanza on February 24, 2025, 12:53:47 PM
Post by: Zanza on February 24, 2025, 12:53:47 PM
I expect that Merz will not be able to compromise and build a coalition with SPD. His limited political experience has zero executive positions and only aggressive opposition leader positions. So far he has not demonstrated that he has something to offer to the SPD.
He already said before the elections that the "right decisions do not become wrong no matter who passes them in parliament". With that argument, he can of course find common ground with the fascists. Probably more than with the social democrats. I expect that to alleviate the "Not von Volk und Reich" he will sadly have to rely on the fascists.
He already said before the elections that the "right decisions do not become wrong no matter who passes them in parliament". With that argument, he can of course find common ground with the fascists. Probably more than with the social democrats. I expect that to alleviate the "Not von Volk und Reich" he will sadly have to rely on the fascists.
Title: Re: German Federal Election 23rd February 2025
Post by: Zanza on February 24, 2025, 12:58:10 PM
Post by: Zanza on February 24, 2025, 12:58:10 PM
Quote from: Tonitrus on February 24, 2025, 11:49:06 AMJust looked up Gelsenkirchen, probably the most depressed area in Western Germany, part of the Ruhr. While the Social Democrats won the FPTP candidate, the more important party vote went 24.6% AFD, 24.1 SPD, 22.7% CDU, 9.4% Left and 6.5% Green. So the AfD is the strongest party in that West German constituency.Quote from: Richard Hakluyt on February 24, 2025, 02:09:55 AMSeems to me that economic inequality turns the losers into fascists which is then exploited by the unscrupulous and amoral.
But what explains the more economic disadvantaged areas in the old West going left instead of right? Longer democratic tradition maybe? :hmm:
Title: Re: German Federal Election 23rd February 2025
Post by: Zanza on February 24, 2025, 01:01:07 PM
Post by: Zanza on February 24, 2025, 01:01:07 PM
Quote from: Solmyr on February 24, 2025, 03:17:59 AMThe question is how many current CDU members on the left of the party quit then. The Merkelians and the Social/Christian/Trade Union wing of the party still exists.Quote from: Valmy on February 24, 2025, 12:25:06 AMWhat choice does he have though? There is no other feasible option.
Do what the conservatives did 100 years ago and accept the Nazis into government because "we can control them". It's what the conservatives here in Finland did two years ago. :P
Title: Re: German Federal Election 23rd February 2025
Post by: Jacob on February 24, 2025, 02:28:23 PM
Post by: Jacob on February 24, 2025, 02:28:23 PM
Quote from: Solmyr on February 24, 2025, 03:17:59 AMDo what the conservatives did 100 years ago and accept the Nazis into government because "we can control them". It's what the conservatives here in Finland did two years ago. :P
Did they succeed? Are they controlling them in Finland?
Title: Re: German Federal Election 23rd February 2025
Post by: The Minsky Moment on February 24, 2025, 04:53:29 PM
Post by: The Minsky Moment on February 24, 2025, 04:53:29 PM
Quote from: Valmy on February 23, 2025, 09:22:40 PMEverywhere outside of West Germany and West Berlin seems pretty Nazi
A few Communist holdouts left in Leipzig and Erfurt.
Title: Re: German Federal Election 23rd February 2025
Post by: Zanza on February 24, 2025, 05:33:04 PM
Post by: Zanza on February 24, 2025, 05:33:04 PM
While the AfD is the single strongest party, there are clear majorities for the other parties in the Eastern German cities such as Leipzig, Dresden, Rostock etc.
In the Erzgebirge area along the Czech border on the other hand close to 50% vote AfD. :yuk:
In the Erzgebirge area along the Czech border on the other hand close to 50% vote AfD. :yuk:
Title: Re: German Federal Election 23rd February 2025
Post by: Solmyr on February 25, 2025, 12:45:33 AM
Post by: Solmyr on February 25, 2025, 12:45:33 AM
Quote from: Jacob on February 24, 2025, 02:28:23 PMQuote from: Solmyr on February 24, 2025, 03:17:59 AMDo what the conservatives did 100 years ago and accept the Nazis into government because "we can control them". It's what the conservatives here in Finland did two years ago. :P
Did they succeed? Are they controlling them in Finland?
No. :P
Title: Re: German Federal Election 23rd February 2025
Post by: Gups on February 25, 2025, 04:20:30 AM
Post by: Gups on February 25, 2025, 04:20:30 AM
Quote from: Josquius on February 24, 2025, 02:13:21 AMReminds me of the brexit vote... The north got all the blame because of the maps when most fascists were down south
Don't know why you keep repeating this when you must know it's untrue (I'm sure I've pointed that out to you).
The Midlands were the most Brexity parts of England, followed by the north-east and Yorkshire/Humber. London, teh south-east and the south-west were the least Brexity in England.
(https://ichef.bbci.co.uk/ace/standard/624/cpsprodpb/E7B6/production/_90081395_eu_ref_uk_regions_leave_remain_gra624.png.webp)
Title: Re: German Federal Election 23rd February 2025
Post by: Josquius on February 25, 2025, 04:26:26 AM
Post by: Josquius on February 25, 2025, 04:26:26 AM
Quote from: Gups on February 25, 2025, 04:20:30 AMQuote from: Josquius on February 24, 2025, 02:13:21 AMReminds me of the brexit vote... The north got all the blame because of the maps when most fascists were down south
Don't know why you keep repeating this when you must know it's untrue (I'm sure I've pointed that out to you).
The Midlands were the most Brexity parts of England, followed by the north-east and Yorkshire/Humber. London, teh south-east and the south-west were the least Brexity in England.
As you can tell from the name the Midlands are of course famously in the north. :mellow:
The point has also flown over your head here as you dredge up percentages.
58% of 1,340,698= 777,604.84
51.8% of 4,959,683= 2,529,438.33
The second is clearly bigger.
Title: Re: German Federal Election 23rd February 2025
Post by: garbon on February 25, 2025, 04:48:32 AM
Post by: garbon on February 25, 2025, 04:48:32 AM
Quote from: Josquius on February 25, 2025, 04:26:26 AMQuote from: Gups on February 25, 2025, 04:20:30 AMQuote from: Josquius on February 24, 2025, 02:13:21 AMReminds me of the brexit vote... The north got all the blame because of the maps when most fascists were down south
Don't know why you keep repeating this when you must know it's untrue (I'm sure I've pointed that out to you).
The Midlands were the most Brexity parts of England, followed by the north-east and Yorkshire/Humber. London, teh south-east and the south-west were the least Brexity in England.
As you can tell from the name the Midlands are of course famously in the north. :mellow:
The point has also flown over your head here as you dredge up percentages.
58% of 1,340,698= 777,604.84
51.8% of 4,959,683= 2,529,438.33
The second is clearly bigger.
Although this also highlights why most of the money in the country should go to people down south as there are more people there and so per pound more efficient to invest in the south.
Title: Re: German Federal Election 23rd February 2025
Post by: garbon on February 25, 2025, 04:49:20 AM
Post by: garbon on February 25, 2025, 04:49:20 AM
Although also odd to only compare North East to South East. :hmm:
Title: Re: German Federal Election 23rd February 2025
Post by: Josquius on February 25, 2025, 04:54:29 AM
Post by: Josquius on February 25, 2025, 04:54:29 AM
Quote from: garbon on February 25, 2025, 04:49:20 AMAlthough also odd to only compare North East to South East. :hmm:Its a random example. Do it for the others if they interest you. The actual numbers are already out there I'm sure without using a calculator even. At a glance I think even London will have more brexit voters than the NE.
QuoteAlthough this also highlights why most of the money in the country should go to people down south as there are more people there and so per pound more efficient to invest in the south.This is the approach the government takes yes.
It would be silly to suggest it be totally flipped with no spending in the south, but even with the population imbalance, the current spending is too skewed.
Also worth noting the north may have fewer people but not too much less space- encouraging more business up here would help shift this population imbalance for everyone's benefit.
Bringing things back round to relevancy and Germany for instance, doing more to incorporate Berlin's hinterland would be positive, especially given their dire housing situation.
Title: Re: German Federal Election 23rd February 2025
Post by: garbon on February 25, 2025, 04:57:10 AM
Post by: garbon on February 25, 2025, 04:57:10 AM
Quote from: Josquius on February 25, 2025, 04:54:29 AMQuote from: garbon on February 25, 2025, 04:49:20 AMAlthough also odd to only compare North East to South East. :hmm:Its a random example. Do it for the others if they interest you. The actual numbers are already out there I'm sure without using a calculator even. At a glance I think even London will have more brexit voters than the NE.
I did and it basically just matches the same ratio of people who voted in north vs south. Anyway, I haven't heard many blame the North narratives but more blame England narratives.
Title: Re: German Federal Election 23rd February 2025
Post by: Gups on February 25, 2025, 05:28:17 AM
Post by: Gups on February 25, 2025, 05:28:17 AM
Quote from: Josquius on February 25, 2025, 04:26:26 AMQuote from: Gups on February 25, 2025, 04:20:30 AMQuote from: Josquius on February 24, 2025, 02:13:21 AMReminds me of the brexit vote... The north got all the blame because of the maps when most fascists were down south
Don't know why you keep repeating this when you must know it's untrue (I'm sure I've pointed that out to you).
The Midlands were the most Brexity parts of England, followed by the north-east and Yorkshire/Humber. London, teh south-east and the south-west were the least Brexity in England.
As you can tell from the name the Midlands are of course famously in the north. :mellow:
The point has also flown over your head here as you dredge up percentages.
58% of 1,340,698= 777,604.84
51.8% of 4,959,683= 2,529,438.33
The second is clearly bigger.
That's like saying England's more Catholic than the Republic of Ireland because there are a greater number of catholics in England. Or that South Sudan is richer than Monaco.
Title: Re: German Federal Election 23rd February 2025
Post by: Gups on February 25, 2025, 05:31:27 AM
Post by: Gups on February 25, 2025, 05:31:27 AM
Quote from: Josquius on February 25, 2025, 04:26:26 AMQuote from: Gups on February 25, 2025, 04:20:30 AMQuote from: Josquius on February 24, 2025, 02:13:21 AMReminds me of the brexit vote... The north got all the blame because of the maps when most fascists were down south
Don't know why you keep repeating this when you must know it's untrue (I'm sure I've pointed that out to you).
The Midlands were the most Brexity parts of England, followed by the north-east and Yorkshire/Humber. London, teh south-east and the south-west were the least Brexity in England.
As you can tell from the name the Midlands are of course famously in the north. :mellow:
Your the one that said that the "fascists" come from "down south". I didn't blame the north for Brexit. I blame Boris, Farage, the press, Corbyn, Cameron and the crappiness of the remain campaign.
Title: Re: German Federal Election 23rd February 2025
Post by: Josquius on February 25, 2025, 05:42:05 AM
Post by: Josquius on February 25, 2025, 05:42:05 AM
Quote from: Gups on February 25, 2025, 05:28:17 AMThat's like saying England's more Catholic than the Republic of Ireland because there are a greater number of catholics in England. Or that South Sudan is richer than Monaco.
If the Papacy was a democracy and only England and Ireland had Catholics then there being more Catholics in England would be a very pertinent point in picking the next pope.
QuoteYour the one that said that the "fascists" come from "down south". I didn't blame the north for Brexit. I blame Boris, Farage, the press, Corbyn, Cameron and the crappiness of the remain campaign.
You do know I live in Newcastle right?
The Midlands are south of here.
And I said most of. Not all.
Title: Re: German Federal Election 23rd February 2025
Post by: Sheilbh on February 25, 2025, 06:53:07 AM
Post by: Sheilbh on February 25, 2025, 06:53:07 AM
Interesting from Ulrike Franke from the ECFR on the challenge of Die Linke - or as I'd frame it the ongoing colossal self-harm of fiscal fetishism or putting the state in the service of fiscal objectives and not the other way round - but definitely feels (in this context) like that 0.03% from BSW is a bullet swerved:
QuoteDie Linke is back
The consequences of the left's surprise success for defence and security
Ulrike Franke
Feb 25
The results from the German election are in. The winner is Friedrich Merz's conservative Christian Democrats, although with the second-worst result in the party's history: 28.5%. Politically, there is only one two-party coalition possible, the alliance formerly known as the "grand coalition", i.e. a coalition of the conservatives and the social democrats (SPD) who secured just 16.4% of the vote.
Together, they have 328 seats in the Bundestag, 12 more than needed for a majority, an acceptable, though not great margin. Hence, a CDU-led government with a Chancellor Merz and the SPD as the smaller coalition partner seems almost guaranteed, despite rumblings within the SPD. This, to be clear, is not a coalition formed out of enthusiasm or political compatibility, but mainly a lack of alternatives.
Most international observers have, beyond the question of who will form the government, focused on the other obvious winner of these elections: the far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD) which secured a whopping 20.8% of the votes, coming in second. It gained over 10 percentage points compared to three years ago, and in some constituencies in East Germany, got over 40% of the votes. AfD is entering the parliament with 152 MPs. (Mathematically, a CDU/CSU coalition with the AfD is also possible, this option has however been categorically excluded by Merz who referred to the so-called "firewall" towards the far-right, which has gained some international notoriety after having been criticized recently by US- Vice President J.D. Vance.)
For security and defence policy experts, however, another party may be the focus: Die Linke. Like the AfD and CDU/CSU it also succeeded in gaining votes, with 8.7% and 64 MPs. These numbers would normally not make them a relevant force, and, historically speaking, this is not a particularly good result for them. It is, however, considerably better than anyone would have predicted only weeks ago when it seemed all but guaranteed that the party would not make it over the 5% threshold to enter parliament.
In the final weeks of the campaign, Die Linke gained substantial momentum and thus reentered parliament triumphantly while the "Bündnis Sarah Wagenknecht" (BSW), a populist left-authoritarian party which had split from Die Linke in 2024 appears to have missed out on entering parliament by 0,03 percentage points.
Why do observers, especially those working on defence questions, need to be interested in this smallest of all Bundestag factions, a party which has never been in government, and stands for left-wing ideas which do not have a majority in Germany? The answer is money. More specifically, Germany's notorious "Schuldenbremse" or debt break, created in 2009 to restrict deficits.
The government at the time – another grand coalition of CDU/CSU and SPD – introduced a law into Germany's constitution stating that annual structural deficits are restricted to 0.35% of GDP. Because of this rule, German governments' ability to borrow money to finance anything has been severely limited – which in turn explains why German debt is lower than its European partners.
The world of 2025, however, looks different to the one of 2009. Even in Germany, a country known for its disinterest in defence matters, the population and political realm has noticed things have changed. The Zeitenwende, the turn in times, which Olaf Scholz announced three days after the Russian invasion may not have had quite as important impact on German defence capabilities as some had hoped, but certainly helped Germans to wake up from its decades-long geopolitical slumber. The recent statements by the Trump administration have perhaps had even more impact.
There is thus a realisation in most of German society, as well as in the new government, that the country will need to make a real effort to re-build its defence capabilities, possibly re-start conscription, and generally be able to put itself into a better position to guarantee its own and Europe's security without the United States. This, however, requires money. Germany has more financial leeway than most of its European partners, but the government still needs to decide where any new money for defence would come from.
As SPD does not want to cut other spending and CDU does not want to raise taxes, the only option is to borrow more. This, however, would mean an end to the debt brake, or the need for a new "special fund", like the recent 100 billion Euro fund for the Bundeswehr. Both CDU and SPD have been careful in the campaign to not be too clearly in favour of abandoning the debt brake, but it seems likely that there will be a majority in this government to do so. The problem is that an end to the debt brake, as well as a special fund, requires a 2/3 majority in the Bundestag – and so needs support from the Greens (which most likely will be on board), as well as either AfD or Die Linke.
Relying on AfD votes is a major scandal in Germany; therefore, all eyes now turn to the left and a party which is against defence spending as a matter of course, criticises NATO, and wants to end all foreign Bundeswehr missions. Whether and how this party can be convinced, most likely through substantial increases in social or infrastructure spending, to agree to abolishing the debt brake to fund more German defence, is the big question that could decide Germany's defence policy and abilities going forward.
It will be a difficult negotiation. On the goal of building up German defence capabilities, the parties could not be further apart. Pacifism and anti-military sentiment is in Die Linke's DNA. The party notes on its website "We reject more money for rearmament. We want to transform the Bundeswehr into a purely defensive army." In a public debate I recently had with a Linke MP candidate, it was explained to me this would mean only having "defensive weapons", and that no German frigate, for example, would need to be able to go further out than 200km.
Also, ideologically, CDU/CSU and Die Linke are incompatible. For many years, CDU/CSU has had an "Unvereinbarkeitsentschluss", a 'decision of incommensurateness' regarding Die Linke, which excludes any coalition "and similar forms of cooperation". At the same time, Die Linke representatives have already signalled a willingness to end the debt brake – but not for increased defence spending only spending on infrastructure and other investment. It will thus require a skilful negotiator to make this work. Whether Merz can play this role, or whether SPD can act as a bridge, is uncertain.
In order to avoid this scenario, a rather unusual discussion is taking place in Berlin right now: could – should Friedrich Merz try to get the votes for the 2/3 majority in the old parliament? Due to the German electoral system, the old parliament is still in place. So there is a short period of time – four weeks until 24 March – in which the likely new chancellor could try and the get the votes from his likely new coalition partner and the Greens, but in the old parliament, with the old majorities.
Merz has announced that he wants to move fast in general – the idea is to have a new government coalition by Easter – and on defence and security the urgency is clear to most. Still, going for a constitutional change with a parliament that no longer reflects the elected majorities is a bold move in a political system which rarely sees those. The SPD have already expressed concerns.
If this gambit does not work, and if Die Linke blocks a higher defence budget in the new Bundestag, Merz's government will struggle to find an alternative solution. Working with the AfD, and on such a fundamental question, seems unthinkable now, though German politics is in such choppy waters at the moment that many old certainties are being questioned. In the worst case, the new government will need to find money elsewhere, endangering public cohesion and voter satisfaction through spending cuts or raised taxes. Neither will be popular.
Ironically, the attacks by the Trump administration on the fundamental values of the transatlantic relationship, and their clear signalling that Europe can no longer rely on the US for its defence, could help this endeavour. Die Linke has always been critical of the US, following an "anti-imperialist" logic. On the evening of the election, Friedrich Merz – a staunch transatlanticist and head of a party which in its programme, even after the election of Donald Trump, identified the cooperation with the US as plan A for Germany – noted:Quote"I never thought I would have to say something like this on a television program. But after Donald Trump's statements last week at the latest, it is clear that the Americans, at least this part of the Americans, this administration, are largely indifferent to the fate of Europe."
He added:Quote"My absolute priority will be to strengthen Europe as quickly as possible so that, step by step, we can really achieve independence from the USA."
This statement might have been made under the shock of recent developments, and Merz will certainly, in parallel to any European efforts, aim to have workable relations to the US. Still, it is testimony to a genuine change in German thinking that has taken hold rapidly over the last weeks, moving even the most die-hard transatlanticists. Efforts to become more independent from the US is something on which Die Linke and the new government might be able to find common ground on. Continuous bad news from Washington could eventually be good news for German defence funding.
QuoteHe already said before the elections that the "right decisions do not become wrong no matter who passes them in parliament". With that argument, he can of course find common ground with the fascists. Probably more than with the social democrats. I expect that to alleviate the "Not von Volk und Reich" he will sadly have to rely on the fascists.The slight challenge to that - because I agree with Merz on this - is that applying the rule that you can't vote with the AfD can allows the AfD to basically colonise issues with broad popular support and saliency, because other parties will not vote for them. It's giving them a lot of power they don't otherwise have to dictate politics.
Title: Re: German Federal Election 23rd February 2025
Post by: Zanza on February 25, 2025, 12:12:18 PM
Post by: Zanza on February 25, 2025, 12:12:18 PM
Quote from: Sheilbh on February 25, 2025, 06:53:07 AMQuoteHe already said before the elections that the "right decisions do not become wrong no matter who passes them in parliament". With that argument, he can of course find common ground with the fascists. Probably more than with the social democrats. I expect that to alleviate the "Not von Volk und Reich" he will sadly have to rely on the fascists.The slight challenge to that - because I agree with Merz on this - is that applying the rule that you can't vote with the AfD can allows the AfD to basically colonise issues with broad popular support and saliency, because other parties will not vote for them. It's giving them a lot of power they don't otherwise have to dictate politics.
But you misunderstand it: Voting with the AfD is not the problem. It only becomes a problem when you cannot find sufficient support for your policy among the democratic parties and have to rely on the fascists to pass a law. If the AfD votes for something that has already sufficient support from other parties, it is gone if they join.
Title: Re: German Federal Election 23rd February 2025
Post by: Josquius on February 25, 2025, 12:18:08 PM
Post by: Josquius on February 25, 2025, 12:18:08 PM
So... The German system.
If a party absolutely sweeps up in a seat or two, 70% of the vote sort of levels... But completely fails everywhere else and ends up with under 5% nationally - that means no seat for them?
Those seats go to the locally second place party with 10% or so?
If a party absolutely sweeps up in a seat or two, 70% of the vote sort of levels... But completely fails everywhere else and ends up with under 5% nationally - that means no seat for them?
Those seats go to the locally second place party with 10% or so?
Title: Re: German Federal Election 23rd February 2025
Post by: Syt on February 25, 2025, 12:28:28 PM
Post by: Syt on February 25, 2025, 12:28:28 PM
To keep it simple: Everyone who wins a seat via direct vote (1st vote) gets in (FPTP), regardless of party result. The second vote is for the per-state party lists and determine how many seats total a party gets.
E.g. say Hamburg gets 100 seats (made up number), and 45% go to SPD based on 2nd vote. Let's further say SPD has won 30 direct votes. that means that 15 of those seats are filled from the party's remaining list of candidates, starting at the top (which is why ranking your candidates is important).
If you gain more direct mandates (1st vote) than you would based on 2nd vote (say you win 10 direct races, but would only get 8 seats per 2nd vote, or fail the 5% margin), then your won races still count and get into parliament. To deal with the mismatch (putting it very simple - had to learn it in communal law and it's "fun" :D ) you expand parliament until the seats you gained by winning FPTP races matches the seats you would gain on percentage. There's usually a few such seats each period which means the parliament size fluctuates, but it seems to be a good enough solution. :P
E.g. say Hamburg gets 100 seats (made up number), and 45% go to SPD based on 2nd vote. Let's further say SPD has won 30 direct votes. that means that 15 of those seats are filled from the party's remaining list of candidates, starting at the top (which is why ranking your candidates is important).
If you gain more direct mandates (1st vote) than you would based on 2nd vote (say you win 10 direct races, but would only get 8 seats per 2nd vote, or fail the 5% margin), then your won races still count and get into parliament. To deal with the mismatch (putting it very simple - had to learn it in communal law and it's "fun" :D ) you expand parliament until the seats you gained by winning FPTP races matches the seats you would gain on percentage. There's usually a few such seats each period which means the parliament size fluctuates, but it seems to be a good enough solution. :P
Title: Re: German Federal Election 23rd February 2025
Post by: Sheilbh on February 25, 2025, 12:42:00 PM
Post by: Sheilbh on February 25, 2025, 12:42:00 PM
Quote from: Zanza on February 25, 2025, 12:12:18 PMBut you misunderstand it: Voting with the AfD is not the problem. It only becomes a problem when you cannot find sufficient support for your policy among the democratic parties and have to rely on the fascists to pass a law. If the AfD votes for something that has already sufficient support from other parties, it is gone if they join.Thank you for removing the slander :P
But I still don't get how that works - aren't you in effect ceding almost a reverse veto power to the AfD?
So there's an issue with say 50%+ public support for x policy. For good, principled, left-wing reasons the SPD, Greens and Die Linke oppose it. So the CDU - and mainstream politics - in effect can't do x. Isn't you basically giving the AfD the ability to monopolise that issue (with 50%+ support)? I mean to me that just seems to give them vastly too much power for a minority party to dictate politics but also it plays into their narrative.
Obviously practically you couldn't do that with a coalition deal with the other parties (and I fully get not having them in a coalition). So you can't address that issue under a coalition agreement - but I think you have to acknowledge that is creating space and opportunity for the AfD so need to have a solution to address it.
Title: Re: German Federal Election 23rd February 2025
Post by: Zanza on February 25, 2025, 01:04:13 PM
Post by: Zanza on February 25, 2025, 01:04:13 PM
Quote from: Syt on February 25, 2025, 12:28:28 PMTo keep it simple: Everyone who wins a seat via direct vote (1st vote) gets in (FPTP), regardless of party result. The second vote is for the per-state party lists and determine how many seats total a party gets.That was the rule until 2021. They changed it. Not all constituency winners get a mandate anymore. You have to win and be highly placed on your party list. My constituency now has no representation, neither via direct mandate, nor via list. This time, only CDU and AfD were affected. That's whysmong all pressing issues, CDU considers electoral reform the top priority. :rolleyes:
E.g. say Hamburg gets 100 seats (made up number), and 45% go to SPD based on 2nd vote. Let's further say SPD has won 30 direct votes. that means that 15 of those seats are filled from the party's remaining list of candidates, starting at the top (which is why ranking your candidates is important).
If you gain more direct mandates (1st vote) than you would based on 2nd vote (say you win 10 direct races, but would only get 8 seats per 2nd vote, or fail the 5% margin), then your won races still count and get into parliament. To deal with the mismatch (putting it very simple - had to learn it in communal law and it's "fun" :D ) you expand parliament until the seats you gained by winning FPTP races matches the seats you would gain on percentage. There's usually a few such seats each period which means the parliament size fluctuates, but it seems to be a good enough solution. :P
Title: Re: German Federal Election 23rd February 2025
Post by: Zanza on February 25, 2025, 01:09:31 PM
Post by: Zanza on February 25, 2025, 01:09:31 PM
Quote from: Sheilbh on February 25, 2025, 12:42:00 PMThe idea is to find a compromise in your coalition. If you can't, end the coalition or shelve the issue. The limit on political options is the point of system. It drives consensus.Quote from: Zanza on February 25, 2025, 12:12:18 PMBut you misunderstand it: Voting with the AfD is not the problem. It only becomes a problem when you cannot find sufficient support for your policy among the democratic parties and have to rely on the fascists to pass a law. If the AfD votes for something that has already sufficient support from other parties, it is gone if they join.Thank you for removing the slander :P
But I still don't get how that works - aren't you in effect ceding almost a reverse veto power to the AfD?
So there's an issue with say 50%+ public support for x policy. For good, principled, left-wing reasons the SPD, Greens and Die Linke oppose it. So the CDU - and mainstream politics - in effect can't do x. Isn't you basically giving the AfD the ability to monopolise that issue (with 50%+ support)? I mean to me that just seems to give them vastly too much power for a minority party to dictate politics but also it plays into their narrative.
Obviously practically you couldn't do that with a coalition deal with the other parties (and I fully get not having them in a coalition). So you can't address that issue under a coalition agreement - but I think you have to acknowledge that is creating space and opportunity for the AfD so need to have a solution to address it.
There is no concept of minority government and looking for votes on each particular issue. It theoretically works, but there is almost no chance to pass a budget then.
Title: Re: German Federal Election 23rd February 2025
Post by: Syt on February 25, 2025, 04:27:23 PM
Post by: Syt on February 25, 2025, 04:27:23 PM
Quote from: Zanza on February 25, 2025, 01:04:13 PMQuote from: Syt on February 25, 2025, 12:28:28 PMTo keep it simple: Everyone who wins a seat via direct vote (1st vote) gets in (FPTP), regardless of party result. The second vote is for the per-state party lists and determine how many seats total a party gets.That was the rule until 2021. They changed it. Not all constituency winners get a mandate anymore. You have to win and be highly placed on your party list. My constituency now has no representation, neither via direct mandate, nor via list. This time, only CDU and AfD were affected. That's whysmong all pressing issues, CDU considers electoral reform the top priority. :rolleyes:
E.g. say Hamburg gets 100 seats (made up number), and 45% go to SPD based on 2nd vote. Let's further say SPD has won 30 direct votes. that means that 15 of those seats are filled from the party's remaining list of candidates, starting at the top (which is why ranking your candidates is important).
If you gain more direct mandates (1st vote) than you would based on 2nd vote (say you win 10 direct races, but would only get 8 seats per 2nd vote, or fail the 5% margin), then your won races still count and get into parliament. To deal with the mismatch (putting it very simple - had to learn it in communal law and it's "fun" :D ) you expand parliament until the seats you gained by winning FPTP races matches the seats you would gain on percentage. There's usually a few such seats each period which means the parliament size fluctuates, but it seems to be a good enough solution. :P
Heh. I remember when my district was represented by SPD (Cornelie Wolgast-Sonntag) via direct vote, plus CDU (Dietrich Austermann) and FDP (Jürgen Koppelin) who all ran in my district in 2002, with the losers getting in through their party lists. :D
Title: Re: German Federal Election 23rd February 2025
Post by: Zanza on February 27, 2025, 02:48:19 PM
Post by: Zanza on February 27, 2025, 02:48:19 PM
With every passing day, it becomes clearer that Merz, the opposition campaigner with a populist streak and societal views from the 80s is unable to switch into a consensus-building role to woo the progressive social democrats into a coalition. He lacks empathy, humility, respect. It is not obvious what he has to offer to the social democrats.
I fear there will be no coalition anytime soon, if ever.
I fear there will be no coalition anytime soon, if ever.
Title: Re: German Federal Election 23rd February 2025
Post by: Jacob on February 27, 2025, 02:51:39 PM
Post by: Jacob on February 27, 2025, 02:51:39 PM
If he fails to bring the SDP on board, and he's rejected the AfD, what are the other possible outcomes?
Title: Re: German Federal Election 23rd February 2025
Post by: Zanza on February 27, 2025, 02:53:23 PM
Post by: Zanza on February 27, 2025, 02:53:23 PM
Nothing, that's the two options. Minority government theoretically, but he won't be able to pass any laws, especially a budget.
Title: Re: German Federal Election 23rd February 2025
Post by: Admiral Yi on February 27, 2025, 06:58:45 PM
Post by: Admiral Yi on February 27, 2025, 06:58:45 PM
What happens if no budget passes?
Title: Re: German Federal Election 23rd February 2025
Post by: Valmy on February 27, 2025, 07:03:01 PM
Post by: Valmy on February 27, 2025, 07:03:01 PM
Quote from: Zanza on February 27, 2025, 02:53:23 PMNothing, that's the two options. Minority government theoretically, but he won't be able to pass any laws, especially a budget.
Well maybe that is why he wants to try to find some common ground with the AfD so he can count on their votes on some things.
Fuck.
Title: Re: German Federal Election 23rd February 2025
Post by: Zanza on February 27, 2025, 09:07:08 PM
Post by: Zanza on February 27, 2025, 09:07:08 PM
Not passing a budget is not as critical as the shutdowns you have in the US. All existing legal obligations must be honoured by the state, e.g. salaries, debt service, all social state expenditures etc.
But there cannot be new discretionary spending without a budget.
If there is no majority for any person to be chancellor in parliament, the constitution allows the president to dissolve parliament and trigger new general elections.
Which is not a solution now, because that would just repeat the current result probably with even more votes for extremists on left and right.
But there cannot be new discretionary spending without a budget.
QuoteArticle 111
[Interim budget management]
(1) If, by the end of a fiscal year, the budget for the following year has not been adopted by a law, the Federal Government, until such law comes into force, may make all expenditures that are necessary:
(a) to maintain institutions established by a law and to carry out measures authorised by a law;
(b) to meet the legal obligations of the Federation;
(c) to continue construction projects, procurements and the provision of other benefits or services or to continue to make grants for these purposes, to the extent that amounts have already been appropriated in the budget of a previous year.
(2) To the extent that revenues based upon specific laws and derived from taxes or duties or other sources or the working capital reserves do not cover the expenditures referred to in paragraph (1) of this Article, the Federal Government may borrow the funds necessary to sustain current operations up to a maximum of one quarter of the total amount of the previous budget.
If there is no majority for any person to be chancellor in parliament, the constitution allows the president to dissolve parliament and trigger new general elections.
Which is not a solution now, because that would just repeat the current result probably with even more votes for extremists on left and right.
QuoteArticle 63
[Election of the Federal Chancellor]
(1) The Federal Chancellor shall be elected by the Bundestag without debate on the proposal of the Federal President.
(2) The person who receives the votes of a majority of the Members of the Bundestag shall be elected. The person elected shall be appointed by the Federal President.
(3) If the person proposed by the Federal President is not elected, the Bundestag may elect a Federal Chancellor within fourteen days after the ballot by the votes of more than one half of its Members.
(4) If no Federal Chancellor is elected within this period, a new election shall take place without delay, in which the person who receives the largest number of votes shall be elected. If the person elected receives the votes of a majority of the Members of the Bundestag, the Federal President must appoint him within seven days after the election. If the person elected does not receive such a majority, then within seven days the Federal President shall either appoint him or dissolve the Bundestag.
Title: Re: German Federal Election 23rd February 2025
Post by: Admiral Yi on February 27, 2025, 09:11:19 PM
Post by: Admiral Yi on February 27, 2025, 09:11:19 PM
An excellent way of doing things.
Title: Re: German Federal Election 23rd February 2025
Post by: The Minsky Moment on February 28, 2025, 12:30:22 AM
Post by: The Minsky Moment on February 28, 2025, 12:30:22 AM
That's what happens when the word for "debt" is the same as the word for "guilt"
Title: Re: German Federal Election 23rd February 2025
Post by: Admiral Yi on February 28, 2025, 03:08:33 AM
Post by: Admiral Yi on February 28, 2025, 03:08:33 AM
he he
Title: Re: German Federal Election 23rd February 2025
Post by: Zanza on March 03, 2025, 07:10:51 PM
Post by: Zanza on March 03, 2025, 07:10:51 PM
The prospective chancellor Merz has apparently just learned to count.
It was always obvious that with the constitutional debt limit, the challenges from war and economic slowdown could not be addressed. He pretended that he could even lower taxes despite this. The social democrats and Greens wanted to pass laws to circumvent this in the old parliament, which he refused to even talk about.
After the election, the Left plus AfD have a blocking minority for constitutional change. Which is why right after the election, the social democrats once more suggested to try to pass a law on the old parliament. Which he refused again.
Two weeks pass and now he notices that his chancellorship will fail before it even starts if he does not pass this with the old parliament. What took him so long?
He really seems incapable of politics.
Not a good time to have an amateur like him at the helm.
It was always obvious that with the constitutional debt limit, the challenges from war and economic slowdown could not be addressed. He pretended that he could even lower taxes despite this. The social democrats and Greens wanted to pass laws to circumvent this in the old parliament, which he refused to even talk about.
After the election, the Left plus AfD have a blocking minority for constitutional change. Which is why right after the election, the social democrats once more suggested to try to pass a law on the old parliament. Which he refused again.
Two weeks pass and now he notices that his chancellorship will fail before it even starts if he does not pass this with the old parliament. What took him so long?
He really seems incapable of politics.
Not a good time to have an amateur like him at the helm.
Title: Re: German Federal Election 23rd February 2025
Post by: HisMajestyBOB on March 03, 2025, 10:39:38 PM
Post by: HisMajestyBOB on March 03, 2025, 10:39:38 PM
:bleeding:
Title: Re: German Federal Election 23rd February 2025
Post by: Tamas on March 04, 2025, 05:50:39 AM
Post by: Tamas on March 04, 2025, 05:50:39 AM
Oh FFS
Title: Re: German Federal Election 23rd February 2025
Post by: Syt on March 04, 2025, 06:59:18 AM
Post by: Syt on March 04, 2025, 06:59:18 AM
That's just great.
Title: Re: German Federal Election 23rd February 2025
Post by: Syt on March 04, 2025, 07:14:59 AM
Post by: Syt on March 04, 2025, 07:14:59 AM
https://www.nytimes.com/2025/03/04/opinion/friedrich-merz-germany-chancellor.html
QuoteGermany Needs Something New. Instead It's Getting This Guy.
By Lukas Hermsmeier
Friedrich Merz didn't waste time.
Having led his party, the Christian Democrats, to first place in Germany's election last month, Mr. Merz swiftly assumed the mantle of chancellor-in-waiting. He urged the country to move quickly to address the challenges, both domestic and foreign, that threaten to overwhelm it. "The world," he said, "is not waiting for us."
He's not wrong. Germany needs to get its act together, fast. The far-right Alternative for Germany, exploiting a shrinking economy and a widespread sense of malaise, came in second, winning 20 percent of the vote. The extreme right is now the strongest it has been since the end of World War II. President Trump's rapprochement with Russia and castigation of Europe, meanwhile, threatens to upend the international order and Germany's place in it. In the face of both tests, the country must at once renew and reorient itself.
The task calls for a leader with a fresh vision of the future. Unfortunately, that's not Mr. Merz. Committed to tax breaks for the wealthy, harsh restrictions for migrants and cuts for welfare recipients, he is a throwback figure. His program amounts to an effort to turn back the clock to a time when the country could depend on cheap energy and plentiful exports to propel it on the world stage. Today, Germany is in urgent need of change. Instead it's getting Mr. Merz: yesterday's man, with yesterday's ideas.
Born in 1955, Mr. Merz grew up in a Catholic family in the Sauerland, a staunchly conservative region in western Germany. As a teenager, he thought the '68 generation of leftist activists were "crazy." He worried, too, that the neo-Nazi National Democratic Party of Germany would make it into Parliament. By the time he joined the Christian Democrats' youth organization at age 17, it was clear politics was his future. In 1989, after law school and a spell in the profession, he was elected to the European Parliament; five years later, he sat in the German Parliament.
He enjoyed a steady rise there, notably popularizing the concept of Leitkultur, a set of norms to which every immigrant should submit. But the top prize was blocked by his longstanding rival, Angela Merkel. After losing the leadership to her in a bitter power struggle in the early 2000s, he gradually shifted into the private sector, amassing a sizable fortune in the process. But Ms. Merkel's departure from the party leadership gave him a chance at a comeback. On his third attempt, promising a much tougher line on crime and migration, he finally took control of the party in early 2022.
His tenure has been uneven. Jutta Falke-Ischinger, a co-author of an unofficial biography of Mr. Merz, describes him as someone who lacks "impulse control," and it's possible to see that waywardness in his leadership. He has made headlines with insults to minority groups, including Ukrainian refugees and Muslim children, resulting in more than one public apology. His sometimes absurd, baseless comments — claiming, for example, that rejected asylum seekers were taking all of the country's dental appointments, leaving none for Germans — suggest someone happy to play into right-wing talking points.
His biggest gamble, however, came during the election campaign. In January, after an asylum seeker stabbed several people in Bavaria, killing two, Mr. Merz brought a draconian anti-migrant proposal to Parliament, relying on votes from Alternative for Germany to pass it. This collaboration not only broke his own promise not to work with the party but also shattered the postwar firewall blocking the far right. Criticism was loud and immediate. Coming when he was cruising toward victory, it seemed like a strange step.
Since then, Mr. Merz has cast himself as a bulwark against autocracy, shielding Europe from the authoritarian depredations of America and Russia alike. There is no imposture here: An old-school institutionalist and lifelong trans-Atlanticist, Mr. Merz strongly believes in both the European Union and NATO. For him, German support for Ukraine is not up for debate and the emerging alliance between America and Russia is an indefensible affront. On election night, he said that Europe — where it was "five minutes to midnight" — must prepare to become independent from the United States.
These are strong words, to be sure. But it's a move Germany has seen before. In the early 2000s, then-chancellor Gerhard Schröder also distanced the country from America, in that case over its war in Iraq, and energetically drove European integration. That's not all Mr. Merz has borrowed from Mr. Schröder. His set of proposals, labeled Agenda 2030, bears more than a passing resemblance to a series of reforms enacted by the Schröder government, known as Agenda 2010. As with those earlier policies, the focus is on reducing social security payments, cutting regulations for companies and offering tax breaks to corporations. The aim, Mr. Merz has said, is to "restore the competitiveness of this country."
The problem is that the conditions for Germany's past competitive edge — cheap Russian gas, a huge low-wage sector and booming exports — no longer exist. There are things Mr. Merz could do to recharge the economy: back renewable energy; make targeted investments in public infrastructure, the care sector and technology; and, above all, bring about a comprehensive investment push. But he remains committed to Germany's debt brake, which ensures strict limits on spending, and refuses to tax large fortunes and inheritances more heavily. The result is a program both inadequate and underfunded.
It's not just the economy Mr. Merz would like to take back to the past. He plans to undo the few moderate social reforms of the previous government — for example, on cannabis legalization and legislation enabling easier gender self-identification — and to intensify the hostile environment for migrants. He won't entirely get his own way, of course. He's likely to form a coalition with the Social Democrats, another throwback to the so-called grand coalitions that dominated the country's politics for much of the Merkel era. How much they challenge him is another question.
In many ways, Mr. Merz embodies the dilemma of contemporary conservatism. He maintains a professed opposition to far-right parties and autocratic regimes while engaging in the anti-migrant fearmongering favored by the far right. He wants to restore a bygone social and economic order but refuses to countenance the progressive reforms that might achieve a better settlement. The Christian Democrats' campaign slogan was "forward again." But under Mr. Merz, they're just looking backward.
Title: Re: German Federal Election 23rd February 2025
Post by: Zanza on March 04, 2025, 11:10:07 AM
Post by: Zanza on March 04, 2025, 11:10:07 AM
Yeah, fits my perception. :(
Title: Re: German Federal Election 23rd February 2025
Post by: Sheilbh on March 05, 2025, 07:13:53 AM
Post by: Sheilbh on March 05, 2025, 07:13:53 AM
This seems basically good - in terms of, from my reading, this is more of a permanent/sustainable shift than the special fund set up under Scholz, is that right?
I think it should also help Europe's economies too - in much the same way as energy transition should in theory but there tend to be more jobs in defence manufactuing.
Having said that I slightly worry about the legitimacy of a lame duck super-majority doing something like this when the electoral result means they wouldn't have a super-majority. I think the needs of the moment probably outweigh that right now:
I think I saw in one of the Guardian's live blogs that if you exclude the special fund in 2022 (because it is a special fund that will be exhausted) regular German defence spending since 2016 has basically just kept pace with inflation. So it has grown by 0% of GDP since Trump's first election - so this is positive.
I think it should also help Europe's economies too - in much the same way as energy transition should in theory but there tend to be more jobs in defence manufactuing.
Having said that I slightly worry about the legitimacy of a lame duck super-majority doing something like this when the electoral result means they wouldn't have a super-majority. I think the needs of the moment probably outweigh that right now:
QuoteGermany's future coalition partners to relax debt rules to boost defence budget
Conservative alliance and Social Democrats to propose exempting spending of more than 1% of GDP on defence
Tue 4 Mar 2025 20.01 GMT
The prospective partners in Germany's next government have said they will seek to loosen rules on running up debt to allow for higher defence spending.
They said they will also seek to set up a huge €500bn ($533bn ) fund to finance spending on Germany's infrastructure over the next 10 years.
Centre-right election winner Friedrich Merz, who is trying to put together a coalition government with the centre-left Social Democrats of the outgoing chancellor, Olaf Scholz, said the two sides would propose exempting spending of more than 1% of gross domestic product on defence from rules that limit the government's ability to borrow money.
"In view of the increasing threat situation, it is clear to us that Europe – and with Europe, the Federal Republic of Germany – must now very quickly make very big efforts very quickly to strengthen the defence capability of our country and the European continent," Merz told reporters at a hastily convened news conference.
"We are counting on the United States of America standing by our mutual alliance commitments in the future as well," he said. "But we also know that the funding for the defence of our country and alliance must now be expanded significantly."
The necessary decisions "no longer tolerate any delay, at the latest since the most recent decisions by the American government," Merz said.
He added that his bloc and the Social Democrats will bring legislation on the exemption for defence spending and the infrastructure package, which will be financed by loans, to Germany's outgoing parliament next week.
Merz also said on Tuesday that he would support the immediate approval of a €3bn aid package for Ukraine that had been held up in parliament for weeks.
Merz told reporters at a press conference that he would meet Scholz on Wednesday "to speak about the urgent help needed for Ukraine, around 3.0 or €3.5bn , which ... can be approved now as off-budget expenditure".
Shortly after Russia launched its full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022, Scholz pledged to increase Germany's defence spending to the current Nato target of 2% of gross domestic product and announced the creation of a €100bn special fund to modernise the military.
But that fund, with which Germany has met the 2% target, will be used up in 2027, and the advent of the new US administration has brought a new sense of urgency to efforts to further beef up the military and defence spending.
Germany's "debt brake", introduced more than a decade ago, allows new borrowing to the tune of only 0.35% of annual gross domestic product, though it can be suspended for emergencies that are out of the state's control.
It was suspended for three years after the Covid-19 pandemic started in 2020 to allow for large amounts of borrowing to finance various support and stimulus packages.
Associated Press and AFP contributed to this report
I think I saw in one of the Guardian's live blogs that if you exclude the special fund in 2022 (because it is a special fund that will be exhausted) regular German defence spending since 2016 has basically just kept pace with inflation. So it has grown by 0% of GDP since Trump's first election - so this is positive.
Title: Re: German Federal Election 23rd February 2025
Post by: Zanza on March 05, 2025, 12:02:12 PM
Post by: Zanza on March 05, 2025, 12:02:12 PM
I hope they can actually pass this still. That would make governing much easier and would not cause as much frustration.
Title: Re: German Federal Election 23rd February 2025
Post by: Zanza on March 05, 2025, 12:07:58 PM
Post by: Zanza on March 05, 2025, 12:07:58 PM
QuoteI think I saw in one of the Guardian's live blogs that if you exclude the special fund in 2022 (because it is a special fund that will be exhausted) regular German defence spending since 2016 has basically just kept pace with inflation. So it has grown by 0% of GDP since Trump's first election - so this is positive.
It grew, especially during the first Trump term, but far away from 2%:
(https://www.wirtschaftundschule.de/files/_processed_/b/a/csm_Verteidigungsausgaben_0dd8856fce.jpg)
Title: Re: German Federal Election 23rd February 2025
Post by: Sheilbh on March 05, 2025, 12:16:05 PM
Post by: Sheilbh on March 05, 2025, 12:16:05 PM
Fair, I think the Guardian stat was it didn't grow as a share of GDP between 2016-24 (excluding the special fund) - so the defence budget kept pace with growth and inflation. So as a share of GDP and the distance from 2% there's no difference between now and Trump's first election but obviously there is more cash in the budget.
Title: Re: German Federal Election 23rd February 2025
Post by: Sheilbh on March 07, 2025, 09:16:44 AM
Post by: Sheilbh on March 07, 2025, 09:16:44 AM
Quote from: Zanza on March 05, 2025, 12:02:12 PMI hope they can actually pass this still. That would make governing much easier and would not cause as much frustration.Yeah - I'm going to be a little positive here.
This might be totally wrong and could all fall apart but I'm encouraged by Merz so far. I think it's bold that he raised a need for talks with the UK and France on nuclear immediately after Vance's speech and before the election even happened. I think doing this with a lame duck Bundestag is arguably challenging democratically but definitely bold and probably the right thing.
But what really made me wonder about this was I listened to a podcast with Adam Tooze today - that was recorded and came out several weeks ago. So it was just after Vance's speech (I think it might have even been before the election or possibly a day or two after). Part of it was talking about defence but then also Germany's economy and as Tooze pointed out lots of focus is on "competitiveness" which is not Germany's problem and is, in fact, a response to the weakness in Germany's economy which is investment. He said that Merz had started talking about "investment" during the election campaign but framed that as private sector investment which would be nowhere near adequate - I think he said studies on this indicate Germany needs about €500 billion of investment in things other than defence which will require the state. He said he thinks Merz "profoundly" gets the issues with Germany's economy on that lack of investment and was perhaps being political because during an election campaign investment = debt = bad.
But as a huge critic of the debt brake and the impact that has on necessary spending, it was really interesting hearing that a few days after Merz proposes a way to resolve the debt brake issue for defence and a €500 billion infrastructure spending fund.
It is very early days. He's not even in office yet. And I get that the vibes about him are bad. But I slightly wonder if there's a Nixon goes to China thing here? it takes a conservative, very West German, bone-deep Atlanticist Christian Democrat to do things like talk seriously about the US as a non-reliable partner requiring a European alternative, to overcome the fiscal fetish and also to set up the investment required? Basically despite the bad vibes these moves indicate someone who is engaging with the reality Merkel spent her entire Chancellorship ignoring, despite impeccable "leader of the free world" vibes. It also feels like it should be a lot easier because BSW just fell short of 5% so a two party coalition is do-able.
Separately I mentioned in the other thread that I didn't see any reason to think Europe was likely to snap out of its stagnation - I think military spending could do that. Like post-war America, basically a type of military Keynesianism - but it will take a commitment (which I know the French push but others are less keen on) on spending for domestic manufacturing. How Europe squares that with its energy challenges and decarbonisation goals is going to be a huge challenge though.
On the election - just looking at the results by party, it'll be interesting to see how the West/East divide plays out as this seems (and the alternative Kenya coalition is the same) very much a Western coalition while the East mainly voted for AfD, Die Linke and BSW:
https://www.theguardian.com/world/ng-interactive/2025/feb/23/german-election-2025-results-in-full-live
(Totally separate and on the East/West divide - I wonder why some areas historic experience left them deeply opposed to and fearful of Russia like the Baltics and the Poles while elsewhere there's more openness like East Germany, Slovakia and, for me most extaoardinarily, Hungary? :hmm:)
Edit: Also on the Nixon goes to China - I think he's indicated support for EU debt to support on defence but wants it spent at a European level (which I think is a better choice) rather than through national governments.
Title: Re: German Federal Election 23rd February 2025
Post by: Zanza on March 07, 2025, 10:52:19 AM
Post by: Zanza on March 07, 2025, 10:52:19 AM
That's a very generous and optimistic view of him.
Title: Re: German Federal Election 23rd February 2025
Post by: Sheilbh on March 07, 2025, 03:18:11 PM
Post by: Sheilbh on March 07, 2025, 03:18:11 PM
Optimistic for sure - I think view is a bit strong :lol:
At best a very quick hot take on first steps - subject to massive revision and no certainty :P Primarily prompted by weirdly hearing that studies say Germany needs about €500 billion of primarily state investment just days after reading that's what Merz and the SPD have agreed (plus defence spending).
Don't know if it's generous - I've got no real view on him. But I think these moves are encouraging.
At best a very quick hot take on first steps - subject to massive revision and no certainty :P Primarily prompted by weirdly hearing that studies say Germany needs about €500 billion of primarily state investment just days after reading that's what Merz and the SPD have agreed (plus defence spending).
Don't know if it's generous - I've got no real view on him. But I think these moves are encouraging.
Title: Re: German Federal Election 23rd February 2025
Post by: Zanza on March 14, 2025, 12:07:31 PM
Post by: Zanza on March 14, 2025, 12:07:31 PM
After the federal election last month and the planned initial session of the next parliament on March 25th, the old parliament would normally not do anything big anymore in the lame duck period.
Not this time. As the 'democratic' parties (as opposed to AfD, Left) will lose their two-thirds majority, they passed three constitutional amendments today. Mainly to allow more spending for defence and infrastructure, softening the prior very strict constitutional debt limit.
This is a significant success for the social democrats and greens regarding policy and for the next chancellor Merz because he has a basis for governing now. But he had to do a 180 on his pre-election promises. Which reduces his legitimacy , which in turn help the extreme parties.
Not this time. As the 'democratic' parties (as opposed to AfD, Left) will lose their two-thirds majority, they passed three constitutional amendments today. Mainly to allow more spending for defence and infrastructure, softening the prior very strict constitutional debt limit.
This is a significant success for the social democrats and greens regarding policy and for the next chancellor Merz because he has a basis for governing now. But he had to do a 180 on his pre-election promises. Which reduces his legitimacy , which in turn help the extreme parties.
Title: Re: German Federal Election 23rd February 2025
Post by: Zanza on March 18, 2025, 12:52:55 PM
Post by: Zanza on March 18, 2025, 12:52:55 PM
The constitutional amendment authorizing probably a trillion Euro new debt for defence and infrastructure was passed by the outgoing lower chamber in its last session before the next legislative period begins next week. The upper chamber is expected to pass it on Friday.
That will take away a lot of pressure from the new government.
That will take away a lot of pressure from the new government.
Title: Re: German Federal Election 23rd February 2025
Post by: Sheilbh on March 18, 2025, 01:40:37 PM
Post by: Sheilbh on March 18, 2025, 01:40:37 PM
Yeah - very good, big news.#
Edit: Useful scale (zeidenwende was €100 billion special fund - like the infrastructure here):
(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/GmVWtd9aUAASRU6?format=png&name=small)
Edit: Useful scale (zeidenwende was €100 billion special fund - like the infrastructure here):
(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/GmVWtd9aUAASRU6?format=png&name=small)
Title: Re: German Federal Election 23rd February 2025
Post by: Zoupa on March 18, 2025, 02:01:02 PM
Post by: Zoupa on March 18, 2025, 02:01:02 PM
Clémenceau looks on nervously, buried upright and facing east.
Title: Re: German Federal Election 23rd February 2025
Post by: The Minsky Moment on March 18, 2025, 02:37:17 PM
Post by: The Minsky Moment on March 18, 2025, 02:37:17 PM
Quote from: Zoupa on March 18, 2025, 02:01:02 PMClémenceau looks on nervously, buried upright and facing east.
Napoleon nods approvingly, as the enlarged Confederation of the Rhine, having absorbed the Prussian remnants, girds itself to confront the neo-Tsarist horde.
Title: Re: German Federal Election 23rd February 2025
Post by: Valmy on May 03, 2025, 01:58:37 AM
Post by: Valmy on May 03, 2025, 01:58:37 AM
So...JD Vance thinks you guys are being mean to National Socialist German Trump Party:
(https://cdn.bsky.app/img/feed_thumbnail/plain/did:plc:wovvsa3c7xieerny5plpo6z2/bafkreifclvmlkuy4cqekdy6nofoumjedebojq2het5cb2gaqp7eu2vbdgm@jpeg)
Just to clarify to the American Fascist regime "bureaucrats" means laws and constitutions and other things they hate.
(https://cdn.bsky.app/img/feed_thumbnail/plain/did:plc:wovvsa3c7xieerny5plpo6z2/bafkreifclvmlkuy4cqekdy6nofoumjedebojq2het5cb2gaqp7eu2vbdgm@jpeg)
Just to clarify to the American Fascist regime "bureaucrats" means laws and constitutions and other things they hate.
Title: Re: German Federal Election 23rd February 2025
Post by: Syt on May 03, 2025, 03:08:02 AM
Post by: Syt on May 03, 2025, 03:08:02 AM
The German response:
(https://i.imgur.com/oSdJqZW.png)
(https://i.imgur.com/oSdJqZW.png)
Title: Re: German Federal Election 23rd February 2025
Post by: Josquius on May 03, 2025, 03:38:17 AM
Post by: Josquius on May 03, 2025, 03:38:17 AM
Let me guess "what about left wing extremism!!11"
Title: Re: German Federal Election 23rd February 2025
Post by: Zanza on May 03, 2025, 11:46:28 AM
Post by: Zanza on May 03, 2025, 11:46:28 AM
The opinion of these clowns is irrelevant.
Title: Re: German Federal Election 23rd February 2025
Post by: Crazy_Ivan80 on May 06, 2025, 06:10:04 AM
Post by: Crazy_Ivan80 on May 06, 2025, 06:10:04 AM
Drama apparently. Merz didn't get sufficient votes. Who got bought by the Russians?
Title: Re: German Federal Election 23rd February 2025
Post by: Zanza on May 06, 2025, 09:55:10 AM
Post by: Zanza on May 06, 2025, 09:55:10 AM
Merz was elected in the second round, but losing the first round is unprecedented. This foreshadows that the coalition will be unstable, similar to the last government coalition we had.
Title: Re: German Federal Election 23rd February 2025
Post by: Crazy_Ivan80 on May 06, 2025, 11:16:02 AM
Post by: Crazy_Ivan80 on May 06, 2025, 11:16:02 AM
I guess some people better watch out for dishes best served cold now...
Title: Re: German Federal Election 23rd February 2025
Post by: Zanza on May 06, 2025, 11:23:25 AM
Post by: Zanza on May 06, 2025, 11:23:25 AM
It's a secret election.
Title: Re: German Federal Election 23rd February 2025
Post by: Habbaku on May 06, 2025, 11:50:56 AM
Post by: Habbaku on May 06, 2025, 11:50:56 AM
If the AfD is the most popular party, why did they not get more votes than the CDU? :hmm:
Title: Re: German Federal Election 23rd February 2025
Post by: Zanza on May 06, 2025, 12:07:20 PM
Post by: Zanza on May 06, 2025, 12:07:20 PM
Probably a reference to them leading in the latest opinion polls.