Languish.org

aka- when will Trump die?

We're in the bad timeline where Mugabe live to 95. Xi, Putin & Trump are eternal.

More than 4 years.

I think there is a lot of wishful groupthink about Trump's physical and mental condition.  At his age anything can develop that would take his life, but at the same time odds are that nothing will.

Quote from: DGuller on November 08, 2024, 08:36:20 AMI think there is a lot of wishful groupthink about Trump's physical and mental condition.  At his age anything can develop that would take his life, but at the same time odds are that nothing will.

A lot being two people? And they said he would last three years, everybody else said he would last the full four or more years.

Quote from: crazy canuck on November 08, 2024, 10:52:03 AMA lot being two people? And they said he would last three years, everybody else said he would last the full four or more years.

I was one of them.  It wasn't based on wishful thinking, but rather a fear (as someone mentioned in another thread) that Vance and Co will engineer a removal sometime after the point where the term wouldn't count for Vance.

Quote from: DGuller on November 08, 2024, 08:36:20 AMI think there is a lot of wishful groupthink about Trump's physical and mental condition.  At his age anything can develop that would take his life, but at the same time odds are that nothing will.

Actuarily, what are the chances of a 78 year old male (non-smoker, non-drinker, but overweight and not active) will die in the next 4 year years?

Quote from: Baron von Schtinkenbutt on November 08, 2024, 11:04:38 AM

Quote from: crazy canuck on November 08, 2024, 10:52:03 AMA lot being two people? And they said he would last three years, everybody else said he would last the full four or more years.

I was one of them.  It wasn't based on wishful thinking, but rather a fear (as someone mentioned in another thread) that Vance and Co will engineer a removal sometime after the point where the term wouldn't count for Vance.

Why? That sounds like a vast overestimation of Vance's capabilities. Dude's a spazz.

Quote from: Barrister on November 08, 2024, 11:06:54 AMActuarily, what are the chances of a 78 year old male (non-smoker, non-drinker, but overweight and not active) will die in the next 4 year years?

If you go by actuarial tables, it's around 20%-25%.  However, there are multiple reasons to not go by actuarial tables.  For one, Trump has hands down the best medical care anyone can have.  Lots of people making up the actuarial tables don't.  Another reason is the selection bias:  a lot of 78 years old males whose experience makes up the actuarial tables are already declining, with dementia for example.  If you're at that age and you're not, you're probably going to have a considerably better than expected mortality.

Say what you will about Trump, but I don't see any reason to think he has significant physical or mental deterioration.  Sure, there are plenty of soundbites of him saying something weird, but the dude has been talking a lot.  The more you talk, the more you're going to say something that will go to soundbites.

Quote from: DGuller on November 08, 2024, 11:18:11 AM

Quote from: Barrister on November 08, 2024, 11:06:54 AMActuarily, what are the chances of a 78 year old male (non-smoker, non-drinker, but overweight and not active) will die in the next 4 year years?

If you go by actuarial tables, it's around 20%-25%.  However, there are multiple reasons to not go by actuarial tables.  For one, Trump has hands down the best medical care anyone can have.  Lots of people making up the actuarial tables don't.  Another reason is the selection bias:  a lot of 78 years old males whose experience makes up the actuarial tables are already declining, with dementia for example.  If you're at that age and you're not, you're probably going to have a considerably better than expected mortality.

Say what you will about Trump, but I don't see any reason to think he has significant physical or mental deterioration.  Sure, there are plenty of soundbites of him saying something weird, but the dude has been talking a lot.  The more you talk, the more you're going to say something that will go to soundbites.

Why must you be so cruel...

Looking on the "bright side" of course we have no idea what Trump's actual health is since he's never revealed his health records.  His fondness for fast food, and the very little sleep he gets, are not good signs.

Remember Antonin Scalia just died one night at the age of 79.  Now I liked Scalia a lot more than I like Trump, but these things can just happen.

Of course they can happen.  That said, it seems like God really has it in for Democrats.  Over the last few decades, so many very close-run pivotal events happened that changed the course of US history.  George W Bush winning in 2000 by a whisker, Trump winning in 2016 by a whisker, Trump turning his head at just the right moment.  The first two really steered the country in a profound direction, my guess is that in time we'll find the third one did as well, maybe even more so.

I know this is purely an emotional argument, but sometimes in game of poker you just know that you're going to be fucked on every coin flip, because there is just nothing going your way, laws of probability be damned.  It feels like this in politics to me.

Quote from: DGuller on November 08, 2024, 11:35:59 AMOf course they can happen.  That said, it seems like God really has it in for Democrats.  Over the last few decades, so many very close-run pivotal events happened that changed the course of US history.  George W Bush winning in 2000 by a whisker, Trump winning in 2016 by a whisker, Trump turning his head at just the right moment.  The first two really steered the country in a profound direction, my guess is that in time we'll find the third one did as well, maybe even more so.

I know this is purely an emotional argument, but sometimes in game of poker you just know that you're going to be fucked on every coin flip, because there is just nothing going your way, laws of probability be damned.  It feels like this in politics to me.

DG, when in life are those odd occasions that are not like a game of poker?   ;)

Quote from: DGuller on November 08, 2024, 11:35:59 AMOf course they can happen.  That said, it seems like God really has it in for Democrats.  Over the last few decades, so many very close-run pivotal events happened that changed the course of US history.  George W Bush winning in 2000 by a whisker, Trump winning in 2016 by a whisker, Trump turning his head at just the right moment.  The first two really steered the country in a profound direction, my guess is that in time we'll find the third one did as well, maybe even more so.

I know this is purely an emotional argument, but sometimes in game of poker you just know that you're going to be fucked on every coin flip, because there is just nothing going your way, laws of probability be damned.  It feels like this in politics to me.

Weren't you the very one who talked about the coin flip fallacy?

Plus 2000 was a long time ago, and it's really hard to game out what a President Gore would have done post 9/11.  I don't think it's a guarantee the outcome would have been any better.

Quote from: Barrister on November 08, 2024, 11:40:07 AMWeren't you the very one who talked about the coin flip fallacy?

Plus 2000 was a long time ago, and it's really hard to game out what a President Gore would have done post 9/11.  I don't think it's a guarantee the outcome would have been any better.

I did, hence my entire last paragraph.  I may understand statistics very well, but I'm still human, and presently a rather despondent human at that.

Jimmy Carter is still around. He just didn't coup his way to eternal office because he's such a Democrat.

Quote from: The Brain on November 08, 2024, 11:49:14 AMJimmy Carter is still around. He just didn't coup his way to eternal office because he's such a Democrat.

If you can call it being "around".

He's not exactly swinging his hammer for Habitat for Humanity these days.  He recently turned 100 and this pictures from the time had him looking like he's 3/4 of the way into the grave. :(

Here's another data point:  the last three presidents that died were aged 94, 93, and 93.  And yeah, there is another one that stubbornly refuses to die, but will definitely not lower the average when he does finally do it.

Quote from: mongers on November 08, 2024, 11:38:13 AMDG, when in life are those odd occasions that are not like a game of poker?   ;)

The ones that are like blackjack

Quote from: DGuller on November 08, 2024, 11:53:28 AMHere's another data point:  the last three presidents that died were aged 94, 93, and 93.  And yeah, there is another one that stubbornly refuses to die, but will definitely not lower the average when he does finally do it.

Coin flip fallacy. :contract:

Lyndon Johnson died at age 64 - but then again he was a smoker.  But yet again - we have no idea what Trump's health is like.  He doesn't look good to me.

Heck - JFK died at the age of 46. :whistle:

Just proves my point.  When SS fucks up, and the president takes a bullet, all take a bullet that's survivable, but only the Democratic one takes another one that's most definitely not survivable.

Quote from: DGuller on November 08, 2024, 12:04:48 PMJust proves my point.  When SS fucks up, and the president takes a bullet, all take a bullet that's survivable, but only the Democratic one takes another one that's most definitely not survivable.

According to Wiki there have been multiple attempts on every President since JFK.  Some obviously closer to success than others.  My understanding is also that the SS really tightened things up after Kennedy.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_United_States_presidential_assassination_attempts_and_plots

Quote from: Grey Fox on November 08, 2024, 11:07:04 AMWhy? That sounds like a vast overestimation of Vance's capabilities. Dude's a spazz.

It's not about Vance per se, but about the machine behind he and Trump.  I don't think Trump will be in power past this term because I don't think the Christofacist power grab (if it happens) will be used to his benefit.  Rather, they'll use Vance as the slot-filler.

Quote from: DGuller on November 08, 2024, 11:47:45 AM

Quote from: Barrister on November 08, 2024, 11:40:07 AMWeren't you the very one who talked about the coin flip fallacy?

Plus 2000 was a long time ago, and it's really hard to game out what a President Gore would have done post 9/11.  I don't think it's a guarantee the outcome would have been any better.

I did, hence my entire last paragraph.  I may understand statistics very well, but I'm still human, and presently a rather despondent human at that.

Understandable but the opposite of what we need. Despondent, defeatist and the resulting apathy are what those types want because it leads to a MN electorate that is depoliticised. And that gives autocrats a free hand, or an even freer hand than they already have.

But it's understandable like I said. At least you've got the ocean between you and trumps biggest Russian fan.

3500 years; he'll merge with the worms that ate RFK Jr.'s brain and become the god-emperor of the known universe.

Quote from: Baron von Schtinkenbutt on November 08, 2024, 12:31:34 PM

Quote from: Grey Fox on November 08, 2024, 11:07:04 AMWhy? That sounds like a vast overestimation of Vance's capabilities. Dude's a spazz.

It's not about Vance per se, but about the machine behind he and Trump.  I don't think Trump will be in power past this term because I don't think the Christofacist power grab (if it happens) will be used to his benefit.  Rather, they'll use Vance as the slot-filler.

Yep

Quote from: Savonarola on November 08, 2024, 01:15:48 PM3500 years; he'll merge with the worms that ate RFK Jr.'s brain and become the god-emperor of the known universe.

(https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/en/3/3e/God_Emperor_Trump.jpg)

Quote from: Savonarola on November 08, 2024, 01:15:48 PM3500 years; he'll merge with the worms that ate RFK Jr.'s brain and become the god-emperor of the known universe.

Are you telling me I need to try to slog through that book now so I can understand what we're in for? :(

Quote from: Barrister on November 08, 2024, 12:11:30 PM

Quote from: DGuller on November 08, 2024, 12:04:48 PMJust proves my point.  When SS fucks up, and the president takes a bullet, all take a bullet that's survivable, but only the Democratic one takes another one that's most definitely not survivable.

According to Wiki there have been multiple attempts on every President since JFK.  Some obviously closer to success than others.  My understanding is also that the SS really tightened things up after Kennedy.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_United_States_presidential_assassination_attempts_and_plots

And related to that theme...perhaps another poll should be how soon we go to war with Iran after Trump takes office...

https://www.cnn.com/2024/11/08/politics/doj-charges-three-iranian-plot-to-kill-donald-trump/index.html

Quote from: Barrister on November 08, 2024, 11:06:54 AM

Quote from: DGuller on November 08, 2024, 08:36:20 AMI think there is a lot of wishful groupthink about Trump's physical and mental condition.  At his age anything can develop that would take his life, but at the same time odds are that nothing will.

Actuarily, what are the chances of a 78 year old male (non-smoker, non-drinker, but overweight and not active) will die in the next 4 year years?

you forgot to mention the cocaine and pills.

Quote from: Barrister on November 08, 2024, 11:52:49 AM

Quote from: The Brain on November 08, 2024, 11:49:14 AMJimmy Carter is still around. He just didn't coup his way to eternal office because he's such a Democrat.

If you can call it being "around".

He's not exactly swinging his hammer for Habitat for Humanity these days.  He recently turned 100 and this pictures from the time had him looking like he's 3/4 of the way into the grave. :(

Still my favourite American president along with FDR.

Trump's reign has started in all the wrong ways with "in four years you do not have to vote again" and some really strange behaviour.

That he managed to pack the supreme court is ominious at best, catastropic at worst.

He'll reign too long not to fuck thi gs up and not long enough to suffer the consequences

Quote from: DGuller on November 08, 2024, 08:36:20 AMI think there is a lot of wishful groupthink about Trump's physical and mental condition.  At his age anything can develop that would take his life, but at the same time odds are that nothing will.

Is it wishful thinking? Dude is old.

But at the same time he is the President so gets top medical care. He probably would have died of COVID years ago if he didn't have that. I fully expect him to live through his term.

I made a wish and voted 2 years. He'll have a heart attack riding a golf cart.

Yeah he'll easily live 4 more years with Presidential medical care. And then I expect he'll run again unless he manages to (self-)convincingly pardon himself of any and all crimes.

If he doesn't run, there'll be massive ass-licking contests to be ordained as his official heir, he'll be able to destroy GOP candidates with single Tweets.

Quote from: Valmy on November 11, 2024, 09:22:07 AM

Quote from: DGuller on November 08, 2024, 08:36:20 AMI think there is a lot of wishful groupthink about Trump's physical and mental condition.  At his age anything can develop that would take his life, but at the same time odds are that nothing will.

Is it wishful thinking? Dude is old.

But at the same time he is the President so gets top medical care. He probably would have died of COVID years ago if he didn't have that. I fully expect him to live through his term.

What I mean is that his wellbeing gets played down because people wish it to be true.  There was talk of him having dementia during his first term, but he still seems to be doing fine, by his standards anyway.  It doesn't happen just with Trump either, remember how Putin's days were supposed to be numbered in 2022?  They may be, but the numbers appear to be much higher than hoped for.

There's more than just death could remove trump from power.
If the dementia comments are true and he hits a steep decline...
The best medical care in the world will be good at keeping someone breathing but there's some things that are pretty hard to tackle even then..

I'm deliberately uninformed on all matters Trump, but I have a hard time believing that dementia is in any way an issue for him.  Unlike Biden or Harris, he talks, and talks, and talks, and also unlike them, he doesn't care to stay on script.  That gives a large body of evidence as to how his brain works.  And while his brain by all accounts appears to be stupid, it doesn't appear to be diseased.

Sure, there will always be clips of him jerking off his microphone or something, but the dude talks all the time.  If he made a telling slip like Biden did about Mitterrand, then I'm sure a clip of it would get my attention even if I try hard not to pay any.  Memory resetting itself to where it was decades ago is an alarming sign, saying something incoherent is something that Trump was doing for 78 years.

In fact, I think writing off Trump is suffering from dementia has been one of many mistakes his opponents made while grappling with how to deal with him.  What they're doing is setting the expectations very low, something that Trump himself would've loved to do.  When Trump goes on a podcast for a couple of hours and doesn't sound unwell at all, it makes him look better than he deserves, and it makes his opponents look deranged and desperate.

Quote from: DGuller on November 11, 2024, 01:09:06 PMIf he made a telling slip like Biden did about Mitterrand, then I'm sure a clip of it would get my attention even if I try hard not to pay any.  .

There are endless clips of Trump confusing people and places; just from the last month of the campaign alone, he repeatedly got confused about what state he was in.  The issue with Trump is that there are so many examples of aberrant behavior that any individual example just flies under the radar.

Watch an example of a Trump speech from the 2015-16 primary season and then one from the last month of the 2024 campaign.  There has been a noticeable deterioration.

Quote from: Tamas on November 11, 2024, 09:35:02 AMYeah he'll easily live 4 more years with Presidential medical care. And then I expect he'll run again unless he manages to (self-)convincingly pardon himself of any and all crimes.

If he doesn't run, there'll be massive ass-licking contests to be ordained as his official heir, he'll be able to destroy GOP candidates with single Tweets.

Why do you think he'll run again in 4 years? By what mechanism do you think that's going to be made possible?

Quote from: Habbaku on November 11, 2024, 02:29:20 PM

Quote from: Tamas on November 11, 2024, 09:35:02 AMYeah he'll easily live 4 more years with Presidential medical care. And then I expect he'll run again unless he manages to (self-)convincingly pardon himself of any and all crimes.

If he doesn't run, there'll be massive ass-licking contests to be ordained as his official heir, he'll be able to destroy GOP candidates with single Tweets.

Why do you think he'll run again in 4 years? By what mechanism do you think that's going to be made possible?

Who is going to stop him?

 :mellow:  https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Twenty-second_Amendment_to_the_United_States_Constitution

Quote from: Habbaku on November 11, 2024, 02:29:20 PMWhy do you think he'll run again in 4 years? By what mechanism do you think that's going to be made possible?

The Supreme Court already ruled in Trump v. Anderson that states cannot police constitutional restrictions on the right of persons to run for federal office.  So nothing will stop Trump from declaring himself a candidate, obtaining the nomination of the GOP and then getting placed on the ballots of all 50 states.  The only way to enforce the 22nd amendment would be an Act of Congress.  Which of course Trump as President would have to sign to become law. Which really means you'd need two-third of both Houses to override a veto and enforce the 22nd Amendment.  And that will never happen.  There is no check. 

This can't be emphasized enough: no constitution, including the US constitution, can function properly without a political class willing to conform to norms of conduct, an informed populace to force politician to abide by norms on the threat of expulsion from office, and as a last resort, a principled court system ready and willing to police violations of constitutional norms.

The US now lacks all three. The 22nd amendment is just a scrap of paper; by itself it does nothing.

Americans place too much trust in the constitution. Without someone enforcing it, it's just a piece of paper.


That being said, unlike some others I don't think Trump will usher in fascist police state over night  It's more gradual than that. He, or at least those around him, will keep eroding the institutions.

Quote from: The Minsky Moment on November 11, 2024, 03:10:00 PMThis can't be emphasized enough: no constitution, including the US constitution, can function properly without a political class willing to conform to norms of conduct, an informed populace to force politician to abide by norms on the threat of expulsion from office, and as a last resort, a principled court system ready and willing to police violations of constitutional norms.

The US now lacks all three. The 22nd amendment is just a scrap of paper; by itself it does nothing.

That's been abundantly clear since the first spin on this merry-go-round.  Having enough people around, in the right places, with the will to conform to law and norms is what kept January 6 and the whole election fraud sham from succeeding four years ago.  But just barely.  It's clear the CHristofascist bloc learned from that and has worked to remove those people, and the people of the United States went right along with it.  Hence my pessimistic assumption about this term.

I still think finagling a way for Vance to take over for Trump and sidestep the 22nd for at least one more election is the more likely path for them, though.  I'm not sure they'll be able to swing "blatant disregard for the Constitution" in just four years.  I'm sure they're gonna test the limits over this term, though.  Shit, maybe I;m being too optimistic and they will be able to work all the way there by 2028.

Roosevelt in our time. FDR saved us from nazis and Trump with save us from the illegals/criminals/dems.

Quote from: HVC on November 11, 2024, 06:47:39 PMRoosevelt in our time. FDR saved us from nazis and Trump with save us from the illegals/criminals/dems.

You do know the 22nd was passed in response to FDR, right?

Quote from: Admiral Yi on November 11, 2024, 06:55:30 PM

Quote from: HVC on November 11, 2024, 06:47:39 PMRoosevelt in our time. FDR saved us from nazis and Trump with save us from the illegals/criminals/dems.

You do know the 22nd was passed in response to FDR, right?

Exactly, roll back to clock to before the mistake was made :P

I think one argument not being mentioned is that the 22nd amendment was ratified a few years after Trump was born, and so Trump was grandfathered.

So, how long after inauguration until the first prominent member of Trump's staff is fired/resigns? :P

Quote from: Syt on November 12, 2024, 02:16:15 AMSo, how long after inauguration until the first prominent member of Trump's staff is fired/resigns? :P

I'd say the chances are near 100% the answer will be a negative number.

Quote from: DGuller on November 11, 2024, 07:04:25 PMI think one argument not being mentioned is that the 22nd amendment was ratified a few years after Trump was born, and so Trump was grandfathered.

If he was actually president when the 22nd came into force, he was grandfathered.  Otherwise, not.

Quote from: grumbler on November 12, 2024, 06:44:00 AM

Quote from: DGuller on November 11, 2024, 07:04:25 PMI think one argument not being mentioned is that the 22nd amendment was ratified a few years after Trump was born, and so Trump was grandfathered.

If he was actually president when the 22nd came into force, he was grandfathered.  Otherwise, not.

If you go by what it says, sure.   :rolleyes:

Quote from: Baron von Schtinkenbutt on November 11, 2024, 06:02:02 PM

Quote from: The Minsky Moment on November 11, 2024, 03:10:00 PMThis can't be emphasized enough: no constitution, including the US constitution, can function properly without a political class willing to conform to norms of conduct, an informed populace to force politician to abide by norms on the threat of expulsion from office, and as a last resort, a principled court system ready and willing to police violations of constitutional norms.

The US now lacks all three. The 22nd amendment is just a scrap of paper; by itself it does nothing.

That's been abundantly clear since the first spin on this merry-go-round.  Having enough people around, in the right places, with the will to conform to law and norms is what kept January 6 and the whole election fraud sham from succeeding four years ago.  But just barely.  It's clear the CHristofascist bloc learned from that and has worked to remove those people, and the people of the United States went right along with it.  Hence my pessimistic assumption about this term.

I still think finagling a way for Vance to take over for Trump and sidestep the 22nd for at least one more election is the more likely path for them, though.  I'm not sure they'll be able to swing "blatant disregard for the Constitution" in just four years.  I'm sure they're gonna test the limits over this term, though.  Shit, maybe I;m being too optimistic and they will be able to work all the way there by 2028.

I am more of a pessimist. Testing the limits of your constitution is going to commence on day one.  By the time Trump ends his first term, this discussion may seem quaint.

Turns out I was overly optimistic.  Blatant disregard for your constitution has already begun. Reporting from the New York Times:

QuoteOver the weekend, Mr. Trump insisted on social media that Republicans select a new Senate majority leader willing to call recesses during which he could unilaterally appoint personnel, a process that would allow him to sidestep the confirmation process. His allies immediately applauded the idea, intensifying pressure on G.O.P. lawmakers to acquiesce.

The demand to weaken checks and balances and take for himself some of the legislative branch's usual power underscored Mr. Trump's authoritarian impulses. While there is no obvious legal obstacle to Mr. Trump's request, it would be an extraordinary violation of constitutional norms. There is no historical precedent for a deliberate and wholesale abandonment by the Senate of its function of deciding whether to confirm or reject the president's choices to bestow with government power

Ah, following the letter of the law, but not the intent of the law. Always beautiful. :)

(A commenter said that this rule may have made sense at a time when senators had to travel to DC on horseback or early steam trains, but it seems outdated and anachronistic these days ... of course I assume it's one of those things that seem outdated, but it's never come up as an issue, so why change?)

I'm hoping that personal ambitions would get in the way of such norm busting.  What personal interest do Senators have in surrendering their power to a lame duck president?  For that matter, what interest does the Supreme Court have to be a rubber stamp?  Exercising discretion is what gives you the power boner.

Quote from: DGuller on November 13, 2024, 09:26:22 AMI'm hoping that personal ambitions would get in the way of such norm busting.  What personal interest do Senators have in surrendering their power to a lame duck president?  For that matter, what interest does the Supreme Court have to be a rubber stamp?  Exercising discretion is what gives you the power boner.

Because they are in a cult.

Quote from: DGuller on November 13, 2024, 09:26:22 AMI'm hoping that personal ambitions would get in the way of such norm busting.  What personal interest do Senators have in surrendering their power to a lame duck president?  For that matter, what interest does the Supreme Court have to be a rubber stamp?  Exercising discretion is what gives you the power boner.

The Senators don't want to get primaried. 

Quote from: Syt on November 12, 2024, 02:16:15 AMSo, how long after inauguration until the first prominent member of Trump's staff is fired/resigns? :P

Wasn't Chris Christie fired as head of the transition before the inauguration last time? :lol:

I think there may actually be less turnover because I think there's less chance of existing party people/people with their own ideas trying to manage Trump. I think there's a cadre of loyalists who know what Trump wants and what working for him means who are ready to go, which didn't exist in 2016 when you had someone like Reince Priebus as Chief of Staff.

Whereas, say, Susan Wiles came up through GOP politics (Jack Kemp, Jon Huntmsan) but has been in Trumpworld since 2016. I think there's less of the old GOP around to try and manage Trump and more people who know exactly what to expect.

Quote from: DGuller on November 13, 2024, 09:26:22 AMI'm hoping that personal ambitions would get in the way of such norm busting.  What personal interest do Senators have in surrendering their power to a lame duck president?  For that matter, what interest does the Supreme Court have to be a rubber stamp?  Exercising discretion is what gives you the power boner.

One of the key moments in the Trump years was in the last couple of days. After the insurrection Lindsay Graham gave his "I'm finally done with Trump" speech. He left DC to return to his District, and was physically harassed and threatened in the airport; he needed a security escort. Within a few days, he was back at Mar-a-lago, kissing Trump's ring.

They aren't just afraid of being primaried.  They are afraid, period.  No more McCains around in the party.  Blackburn may ask Supreme Court candidates to "Define women" but she should be asking to define men.  Because the testicle count in the GOP Senate delegation is zero.

Quote from: The Minsky Moment on November 13, 2024, 03:30:31 PM

Quote from: DGuller on November 13, 2024, 09:26:22 AMI'm hoping that personal ambitions would get in the way of such norm busting.  What personal interest do Senators have in surrendering their power to a lame duck president?  For that matter, what interest does the Supreme Court have to be a rubber stamp?  Exercising discretion is what gives you the power boner.

One of the key moments in the Trump years was in the last couple of days. After the insurrection Lindsay Graham gave his "I'm finally done with Trump" speech. He left DC to return to his District, and was physically harassed and threatened in the airport; he needed a security escort. Within a few days, he was back at Mar-a-lago, kissing Trump's ring.

They aren't just afraid of being primaried.  They are afraid, period.  No more McCains around in the party.  Blackburn may ask Supreme Court candidates to "Define women" but she should be asking to define men.  Because the testicle count in the GOP Senate delegation is zero.

Yep. Literal terrorism is key to how this sort works.
I've encountered it first hand on a small scale. For these public figures...it must be a horror.
I recall seeing a documentary on the 2021 coup attempt, they were interviewing an Arizona official, he mentioned some really scary shit coming his way.
I wonder whether some will genuinely claim asylum elsewhere? - always a few crazies try it no matter what. But this time it could be far more legit.

Yeah I was going to say, it must be very dangerous to be labelled traitor to Trump.

I am going to stick my neck out and bet that within June 2025, there have been three chiefs of staff sacked.

For "disloyalty".

Quote from: Norgy on November 14, 2024, 05:30:20 AMI am going to stick my neck out and bet that within June 2025, there have been three chiefs of staff sacked.

For "disloyalty".

Early signs are this time is different.  This one appears to be making no attempt to curb Trump's worst impulses.

Quote from: crazy canuck on November 14, 2024, 07:29:54 AMEarly signs are this time is different.  This one appears to be making no attempt to curb Trump's worst impulses.

:yes:

This time, the people around him know what they're getting in to and are doing so for very selfish reasons.  There won't be any "disloyalty" unless something major changes that goes against their own ambitions.

Odds on Biden, Pelosi, etc surviving through Spring?

Quote from: Darth Wagtaros on November 14, 2024, 07:43:22 PMOdds on Biden, Pelosi, etc surviving through Spring?

Probably longer than Liz Cheney. Get the impression that Trump thinks disloyal Republicans are the real enemy rather than Democrats per se.

Quote from: PJL on November 14, 2024, 07:51:17 PM

Quote from: Darth Wagtaros on November 14, 2024, 07:43:22 PMOdds on Biden, Pelosi, etc surviving through Spring?

Probably longer than Liz Cheney. Get the impression that Trump thinks disloyal Republicans are the real enemy rather than Democrats per se.

She'll get Trosky'd.  But need a few left to provide an internal enemy.

Quote from: Darth Wagtaros on November 14, 2024, 07:43:22 PMOdds on Biden, Pelosi, etc surviving through Spring?

100-1 on Biden in real money, 1,000,000 to 1 in quatloos.

Quote from: Admiral Yi on November 14, 2024, 09:16:40 PM

Quote from: Darth Wagtaros on November 14, 2024, 07:43:22 PMOdds on Biden, Pelosi, etc surviving through Spring?

100-1 on Biden in real money, 1,000,000 to 1 in quatloos.

So if I bet $1 on Biden dying before April 1, 2025, I win $100?

Quote from: DGuller on November 15, 2024, 01:40:21 AM

Quote from: Admiral Yi on November 14, 2024, 09:16:40 PM

Quote from: Darth Wagtaros on November 14, 2024, 07:43:22 PMOdds on Biden, Pelosi, etc surviving through Spring?

100-1 on Biden in real money, 1,000,000 to 1 in quatloos.

So if I bet $1 on Biden dying before April 1, 2025, I win $100?

I think you lose regardless, it's a Trump world

Quote from: DGuller on November 15, 2024, 01:40:21 AMSo if I bet $1 on Biden dying before April 1, 2025, I win $100?

I was thinking March 1.

Quote from: Darth Wagtaros on November 14, 2024, 07:43:22 PMOdds on Biden, Pelosi, etc surviving through Spring?

"We have great place for retirement, greatly good. Guantanamo".

Quote from: Admiral Yi on November 15, 2024, 02:55:12 AM

Quote from: DGuller on November 15, 2024, 01:40:21 AMSo if I bet $1 on Biden dying before April 1, 2025, I win $100?

I was thinking March 1.

Then you weren't laying odds on people lasting through Spring.

Trials are woke. 

Dude doesn't look like he's in good shape. He eats like shit, doesn't exercise and nearly got himself killed by Covid trying to look tough.

Logically, I'd be surprised if he lived another two years, but logic and consequences don't appear to apply to Trump, so he could live another twenty. 

There is nothing logical about expecting Trump to live less than two years, unless he was convicted of inciting January 6 and sentenced to death.

It's silly to assume because he's 'fat' and 'eats junk' he's about to die.  My grandfather lived till he was 94 and he was fatter than me (and Trump) and pretty much ate what he wanted.  He did however have two things going for him:

1.  He was raised on a farm and liked traditional 'hearty' Pennsylvania Dutch food, so hardly ever ate fast food/deep fried shit.  He had a big garden and grew a lot of his own food.

2.  He never smoke nor drank.

If I'm not mistaken, Trump has never smoked and I think he quit drinking decades ago after his brother drank himself to death.

Now in the correct thread:

Guys, with POTUS level healthcare available to him, there is no way Trump dies before the end of his second term, and has a decent shot at completing his third. Especially since I don't think he'll care enough about the job to stress about it.

Not if the dumb fuckers keep missing.

Quote from: Razgovory on November 19, 2024, 03:42:30 PMNot if the dumb fuckers keep missing.

Only down side of liberals being anti gun.

Quote from: Caliga on November 19, 2024, 12:59:03 PMIt's silly to assume because he's 'fat' and 'eats junk' he's about to die.  My grandfather lived till he was 94 and he was fatter than me (and Trump) and pretty much ate what he wanted.  He did however have two things going for him:

1.  He was raised on a farm and liked traditional 'hearty' Pennsylvania Dutch food, so hardly ever ate fast food/deep fried shit.  He had a big garden and grew a lot of his own food.

2.  He never smoke nor drank.

If I'm not mistaken, Trump has never smoked and I think he quit drinking decades ago after his brother drank himself to death.

So it's fairly widely reported that Trump hasn't ever drank alcohol (or smoked).  It has something to do with his brother (Fred Sr) but obviously pre-dated his passing.

So he definitely has that going for him, health-wise.

On the negative though, he seems to have a terrible diet (see his fondness for McDonalds), is overweight, doesn't exercise (even when golfing - he drives his cart up onto the green), and sleeps way less than is recommended for good health.  None of these are things that suggest good health.

DGuller pointed out (correctly) he probably has the best health care in the world.  So that's in his favour as well.

The total wild card though is he's never released his health records.  So we have no idea about his overall health.

There's also the fact of his speaking patterns.  If you watch any older clips of Trump he seems far more coherent than he does now.  While it's possible he just speaks the way he does for political reasons, it's also quite possible it's because of cognitive decline.

So with all that... I definitely wouldn't expect him to die within two years.  But it wouldn't shock me either.


Edit: there are also many media reports of Trump using Adderall or other stimulants - but I'm not sure if that would affect his chance of dying in the short term.

Quote from: Caliga on November 19, 2024, 12:59:03 PMIt's silly to assume because he's 'fat' and 'eats junk' he's about to die.  My grandfather lived till he was 94 and he was fatter than me (and Trump) and pretty much ate what he wanted.  He did however have two things going for him:

1.  He was raised on a farm and liked traditional 'hearty' Pennsylvania Dutch food, so hardly ever ate fast food/deep fried shit.  He had a big garden and grew a lot of his own food.

2.  He never smoke nor drank.

If I'm not mistaken, Trump has never smoked and I think he quit drinking decades ago after his brother drank himself to death.

His dad also lived into his 90's. So genetics appear to be on his side as well.

Quote from: Tonitrus on November 19, 2024, 08:16:07 PM

Quote from: Caliga on November 19, 2024, 12:59:03 PMIt's silly to assume because he's 'fat' and 'eats junk' he's about to die.  My grandfather lived till he was 94 and he was fatter than me (and Trump) and pretty much ate what he wanted.  He did however have two things going for him:

1.  He was raised on a farm and liked traditional 'hearty' Pennsylvania Dutch food, so hardly ever ate fast food/deep fried shit.  He had a big garden and grew a lot of his own food.

2.  He never smoke nor drank.

If I'm not mistaken, Trump has never smoked and I think he quit drinking decades ago after his brother drank himself to death.

His dad also lived into his 90's. So genetics appear to be on his side as well.

Fred Trump passed at age 93, Mary Trump (his mom) at age 88.

Fred manifested dementia systems by 85.  That's older than Trump will be when he ends this term, but I agree with BB that he does not seem quite the same guy mentally he was in 2015-6.