Poll
Question:
If you were Kamala Harris, who would you choose to be your VP?
Option 1: Mark Kelly - Senator from Arizona
votes: 10
Option 2: Josh Shapiro - Governor of Pennsylvania
votes: 4
Option 3: Roy Cooper - Governor of North Carolina
votes: 1
Option 4: Andy Beshear - Governor of Kentucky
votes: 5
Option 5: Pete Buttigieg - Secretary of Transportation
votes: 1
Option 6: JB Pritzker - Governor of Illinois
votes: 1
Option 7: Gretchen Whitmer - Governor of Michigan
votes: 3
Option 8: Other - List who and why
votes: 1
Mark Kelly - Senator from Arizona
(https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/e/e1/Mark_Kelly%2C_Official_Portrait_117th.jpg/220px-Mark_Kelly%2C_Official_Portrait_117th.jpg)
+Astronaut
+Combat Vet
+From a swing state
+Wife is the victim of political gun violence to compare and contrast against Trump's assassination attempt
-Bald?
-Has a twin (which one is evil?)
Josh Shapiro - Governor of Pennsylvania
(https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/1/17/Governor_Shapiro.jpg/220px-Governor_Shapiro.jpg)
+From the most important swing state in the election
+Popular
+He's 51
-May be confused for someone buying a single plank of wood
-I have seen that online leftists aren't thrilled with his stance on I/P but I don't know enough about it
-Lose a popular governor from an important swing state
Roy Cooper - Governor of North Carolina
(https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/3/30/Roy_Cooper_in_November_2023_%28cropped2%29.jpg/220px-Roy_Cooper_in_November_2023_%28cropped2%29.jpg)
+North Carolina might be possible for Dems
-He's 67. Still younger than Trump but not exactly youthful
-His Lt. Gov is a fascist who may do crazy things while he campaigns out of state.
Andy Beshear - Governor of Kentucky
(https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/a/aa/Kentucky_Air_Guard_supports_governor%27s_inauguration_%281%29_%28cropped%29.jpg/220px-Kentucky_Air_Guard_supports_governor%27s_inauguration_%281%29_%28cropped%29.jpg)
+He won two gubernatorial races in a very red state
+Young, 46
-Kentucky is not a swing state
-Would lose the dem governor of a red state
Pete Buttigieg - Secretary of Transportation
(https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/2/2e/Pete_Buttigieg%2C_Secretary_of_Transportation.jpg/220px-Pete_Buttigieg%2C_Secretary_of_Transportation.jpg)
+Young, 42
+Well liked in the party
+Mandatory refunds if your flight gets canceled
-He's gay. Shouldn't matter, but it does.
-Couple of big fuckups during his time in Biden's cabinet, like East Palestine.
-Doesn't bring much strategically
JB Pritzker - Governor of Illinois
(https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/5/53/Governor_JB_Pritzker_official_portrait_2019_%28crop%29.jpg/369px-Governor_JB_Pritzker_official_portrait_2019_%28crop%29.jpg)
+Very popular governor of a big state
+Progressives love him
+Billionaire
-Illinois is not a swing state
-Billionaire
Gretchen Whitmer - Governor of Michigan
(https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/c/c0/8R4A9872_%2853367444225%29_%28Whitmer1%29.jpg/220px-8R4A9872_%2853367444225%29_%28Whitmer1%29.jpg)
+Popular governor of a swing state
+Rising star of the Democratic party
-It would be 2 women on the ticket. Shouldn't matter, but it does.
-Would lose a popular governor
-Doesn't want to be VP
And many, many more possibilities.
Gretchen Whitmer; we haven't had a vice president that spoke without an accent since the end of the Nixon era so I think we're due. :)
;)
Edit: Also the VP debate would be the legendary rivalry: Michigan vs. Ohio.
Thanks Tim I was wondering about the options and what they bring.
Based on what you wrote it should be Mark Kelly, no contest. Sadly in no small part because of his tragic link to political violence.
Kelly or Buttigieg.
To be honest, I would like to see her doing some actually uniting the USA by picking a dissenting Republican.
I have no idea who that would be, an all-female ticket with Haley would probably not win much support.
Quote from: Norgy on July 23, 2024, 09:05:21 AMKelly or Buttigieg.
To be honest, I would like to see her doing some actually uniting the USA by picking a dissenting Republican.
I have no idea who that would be, an all-female ticket with Haley would probably not win much support.
I think that would be terrible as I don't think anyone would be in favour of a unity government. You've just lost both sides.
Quote from: garbon on July 23, 2024, 09:08:51 AMQuote from: Norgy on July 23, 2024, 09:05:21 AMKelly or Buttigieg.
To be honest, I would like to see her doing some actually uniting the USA by picking a dissenting Republican.
I have no idea who that would be, an all-female ticket with Haley would probably not win much support.
I think that would be terrible as I don't think anyone would be in favour of a unity government. You've just lost both sides.
I'm really starting think that euros (god bless 'em) have trouble with the two party system.
Wait, no Jaron option?
If I approach this strategy-gamey-like, I guess it should be one of the popular politicians in swing states. Cooper or Kelly. I'm willing to gamble on PA staying blue.
I wouldn't take a Governor from any state. Of the choices, Kelly.
Quote from: HVC on July 23, 2024, 09:18:31 AMQuote from: garbon on July 23, 2024, 09:08:51 AMQuote from: Norgy on July 23, 2024, 09:05:21 AMKelly or Buttigieg.
To be honest, I would like to see her doing some actually uniting the USA by picking a dissenting Republican.
I have no idea who that would be, an all-female ticket with Haley would probably not win much support.
I think that would be terrible as I don't think anyone would be in favour of a unity government. You've just lost both sides.
I'm really starting think that euros (god bless 'em) have trouble with the two party system.
Depends on who you ask. I think the continent has shown that we are more adept at division than most with, well, a few world wars and whatnot.
I understand the two-party system. Quite well, actually. Which is why it might not be such a terrible idea to try and close some gaps.
That being said, I accept that realities here and now would preclude that from happening. I am, thankfully, not as stupid as I look.
Kelly has surged into the lead on predict it
Kelly 40%
Shapiro 29%
Cooper 17%
https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/8089/Who-will-win-the-2024-Democratic-vice-presidential-nomination
Quote from: Norgy on July 23, 2024, 10:04:40 AMQuote from: HVC on July 23, 2024, 09:18:31 AMQuote from: garbon on July 23, 2024, 09:08:51 AMQuote from: Norgy on July 23, 2024, 09:05:21 AMKelly or Buttigieg.
To be honest, I would like to see her doing some actually uniting the USA by picking a dissenting Republican.
I have no idea who that would be, an all-female ticket with Haley would probably not win much support.
I think that would be terrible as I don't think anyone would be in favour of a unity government. You've just lost both sides.
I'm really starting think that euros (god bless 'em) have trouble with the two party system.
Depends on who you ask. I think the continent has shown that we are more adept at division than most with, well, a few world wars and whatnot.
I understand the two-party system. Quite well, actually. Which is why it might not be such a terrible idea to try and close some gaps.
That being said, I accept that realities here and now would preclude that from happening. I am, thankfully, not as stupid as I look.
But do your 'realities' consider that it isn't what voters want? Like I have no desire to have a Republican of any stripe as VP. If they had done the decent thing they wouldn't still be a Republican, they'd be at a push an independent.
I honestly can't think of any benefit such a ticket would bring either during election cycle or during governance in the US.
I still like Cooper but it would sure be nice if it was a Midwesterner.
Quote from: Norgy on July 23, 2024, 09:05:21 AMKelly or Buttigieg.
To be honest, I would like to see her doing some actually uniting the USA by picking a dissenting Republican.
I have no idea who that would be, an all-female ticket with Haley would probably not win much support.
Notwithstanding the comments above that point out how this doesn't make sense in a two party state,the obvious candidate for vice president from the GOP in your scenario is Cheney. :P
Mark Kelly being a Senator from Arizona is actually a negative, in my opinion. Krysten Sinema is not running again, and her seat is barely leaning Democratic right now. Having both Arizona Senate seats up in the same year presents a significant danger that one will flip Republican. With Manchin's seat predicted to go Republican the Senate would be evenly split (assuming Sinema's seat goes Democratic and all other incumbent parties hold). I think it's too big a risk to pull Kelly away from that seat and possibly hand the Republicans slim majorities in both houses of Congress.
I think Shapiro is the best choice, assuming being a Jew doesn't become a lightning rod for certain elements of the left. Pennsylvania is must-win for the Democrats.
Kelly doesn't have to resign to run. He would only be replaced if they won, and he would be replaced by a democratic governor.
Quote from: Zanza on July 23, 2024, 11:14:34 AMQuote from: Norgy on July 23, 2024, 09:05:21 AMKelly or Buttigieg.
To be honest, I would like to see her doing some actually uniting the USA by picking a dissenting Republican.
I have no idea who that would be, an all-female ticket with Haley would probably not win much support.
Notwithstanding the comments above that point out how this doesn't make sense in a two party state,the obvious candidate for vice president from the GOP in your scenario is Cheney. :P
Her dad was fairly effective. When he wasn't shooting people.
What if the Shapiro is Ben? :ph34r:
Back in the days when moderate Republicans existed I guess, but people like Cheney and Romney are still very far right wing and too far to be considered.
Kelly, and please god no, not Beshear. He's the only non-crazy state politician we have down here.
Quote from: garbon on July 23, 2024, 09:08:51 AMI think that would be terrible as I don't think anyone would be in favour of a unity government. You've just lost both sides.
I would have loved Joe Lieberman on John McCain's ticket, like McCain wanted and had to be talked out of. I would have voted Republican in that election had we gotten that, instead of HOCKEY MAAAAAAHM which automatically lost my vote.
Quote from: Caliga on July 23, 2024, 11:59:28 AMKelly, and please god no, not Beshear. He's the only non-crazy state politician we have down here.
Yeah ok I agree with you now. And even if he was on the ticket Trump is still winning Kentucky.
Right. It speaks to Andy's skill as a leader that he's been elected twice in a state this red.
...Beto O'Rourke. Let's make Texas blue again!
Kind of kidding, but not? Like, Texas has gotten closer and closer every election the past 3 going from 16 point gap for Romney, 9 for Trump in 2016 and 6 for Trump in 2020. I wonder if it is close enough to the tipping point to go blue with the right veep option? I don't know if Beto the multi-time loser is a good option, but he checks some of the boxes for sure. :hmm:
Quote from: Sophie Scholl on July 23, 2024, 12:17:23 PM...Beto O'Rourke. Let's make Texas blue again!
Kind of kidding, but not? Like, Texas has gotten closer and closer every election the past 3 going from 16 point gap for Romney, 9 for Trump in 2016 and 6 for Trump in 2020. I wonder if it is close enough to the tipping point to go blue with the right veep option? I don't know if Beto the multi-time loser is a good option, but he checks some of the boxes for sure. :hmm:
I can almost hear musk's scream were that to happen
Quote from: Crazy_Ivan80 on July 23, 2024, 12:22:35 PMI can almost hear musk's scream were that to happen
A nice added bonus for sure! I wonder if him moving there might actually be a negative for Trump and the Republicans. A "coastal elite" carpetbagger coming to Texas to try to take over.
Quote from: Sophie Scholl on July 23, 2024, 12:29:46 PMQuote from: Crazy_Ivan80 on July 23, 2024, 12:22:35 PMI can almost hear musk's scream were that to happen
A nice added bonus for sure! I wonder if him moving there might actually be a negative for Trump and the Republicans. A "coastal elite" carpetbagger coming to Texas to try to take over.
My sense of it is that the people who are concerned about costal elites are already worshipping Elon.
I know nothing about these people except Booty Judge and Whitmer (that she almost got kidnapped).
Based on the photos and Timmy's helpful thumbnails I vote Kelly, Cooper, Shapiro, in order. Kelly for the badass, Cooper for reassuring dad look.
Pritzker is right the fuck out. Ugly doesn't get votes.
I think there's research that basically says the state of VP nominations don't matter at all.
I'd probably go for Cooper. Also I'm not sure age is necessarily a bad thing here a lot of younger, ambitious Democrats have just taken a step back - so they probably don't have a shot until 2032 (and there'll be younger people behind them). Picking an old guy rather than a presumptive successor might be an idea (or a nice trade off).
Agree with VM on Kelly - sadly it feels confident to open up a swing senate state you don't need to.
I've heard Very Smart People say the veep doesn't bring upside but can bring downside.
I'm wondering if that is also true at the state level though.
Quote from: Admiral Yi on July 23, 2024, 02:42:16 PMI've heard Very Smart People say the veep doesn't bring upside but can bring downside.
I'm wondering if that is also true at the state level though.
I think they definitely can nationally - see Sarah Palin :lol:
But I saw it when someone shared today and I think the research was that basically VP candidates make no difference on their home state (one way or the other). The exception is if they're basically political institutions in their (small) home state - like Joe Biden or Ed Muskie.
The home state of presidential candidates do make a difference though.
Quote from: Sophie Scholl on July 23, 2024, 12:17:23 PM...Beto O'Rourke. Let's make Texas blue again!
Kind of kidding, but not? Like, Texas has gotten closer and closer every election the past 3 going from 16 point gap for Romney, 9 for Trump in 2016 and 6 for Trump in 2020. I wonder if it is close enough to the tipping point to go blue with the right veep option? I don't know if Beto the multi-time loser is a good option, but he checks some of the boxes for sure. :hmm:
Margin was 5.58% for Trump, so... I don't really think it's likely. Much better shot in 2028 if the trend continues.
North Carolina seems like a much more realistic target.
(https://i.imgur.com/BuGp5qj.png)
Probably so.
Though there are a lot of Indians in Texas. How do they normally vote? Could Harris pull some over?
Quote from: Sophie Scholl on July 23, 2024, 12:29:46 PMQuote from: Crazy_Ivan80 on July 23, 2024, 12:22:35 PMI can almost hear musk's scream were that to happen
A nice added bonus for sure! I wonder if him moving there might actually be a negative for Trump and the Republicans. A "coastal elite" carpetbagger coming to Texas to try to take over.
I read Tim's post before yours and my initial thinking was along the same lines.
With Musk moving to Texas and being Musk, destined to piss off a lot of people... he could well shift the needle positively a few years down the line.
https://x.com/admcrlsn/status/1815924702969262355
QuoteMy opinion on this doesn't really matter at all, but here's where my head's at on the "big four" potential running mates for Harris, in order of who I want the most to least:
1) Gov. Roy Cooper (NC)
(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/GTN15IZXsAACYRl?format=jpg&name=large)
2) Sen. Mark Kelly (AZ)
(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/GTN15hQWoAAHuPL?format=jpg&name=medium)
3) Gov. Josh Shapiro (PA)
(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/GTN154RXkAA40cx?format=jpg&name=large)
4) Gov. Andy Beshear (KY)
(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/GTN16O7XsAA7w2D?format=jpg&name=large)
Quote from: Baron von Schtinkenbutt on July 23, 2024, 11:21:53 AMMark Kelly being a Senator from Arizona is actually a negative, in my opinion. Krysten Sinema is not running again, and her seat is barely leaning Democratic right now. Having both Arizona Senate seats up in the same year presents a significant danger that one will flip Republican. With Manchin's seat predicted to go Republican the Senate would be evenly split (assuming Sinema's seat goes Democratic and all other incumbent parties hold). I think it's too big a risk to pull Kelly away from that seat and possibly hand the Republicans slim majorities in both houses of Congress.
I think Shapiro is the best choice, assuming being a Jew doesn't become a lightning rod for certain elements of the left. Pennsylvania is must-win for the Democrats.
This, except Copper rather than Shapiro. Cooper is a brilliant campaigner (13-0 in elections despite being the underdog in four of those) and term-limited, so the Dems lose no seat with him running for VP. He's not great on the stump but extremely good in personal settings. Letting Cooper resign the governor's seat would unleash Mark Robinson, the lt governor, and that would wreck the Republicans' chances of winning the governor's race, because Robinson's political positions are poison to most North Carolinians (climate change denier, Holocaust denier, birther, wants to eliminate science and social studies education in grades K-5, on and on).
Allowing Robinson to poison the Republican Party in NC would pay dividends down the ticket there.
Quote from: Savonarola on July 23, 2024, 08:35:20 AMGretchen Whitmer; we haven't had a vice president that spoke without an accent since the end of the Nixon era so I think we're due. :)
;)
Edit: Also the VP debate would be the legendary rivalry: Michigan vs. Ohio.
Biden has an accent? Weird. I don't notice it.
Anyway.
I'm not sure it should be two women, I'm not sure there should be a gay VP.
Yes, it shouldn't matter. But it's the US. The best candidate does not always win.
I think I'd go with Kelly.
Not that I know any of their policies, except that Withmer also seems the kind of woman that would not let herself be easily intimidated by Republicans and would counter-punch.
Quote from: garbon on July 23, 2024, 10:47:34 AMIf they had done the decent thing they wouldn't still be a Republican, they'd be at a push an independent.
I honestly can't think of any benefit such a ticket would bring either during election cycle or during governance in the US.
John McCain died a Republican. ;)
I'll play devil's advocate here: some Republicans are trying to change things from the inside. But they're being targeted so they stay quiet now.
But I agree with you that a unity ticket would be a bad move and would piss off both sides.
It might work after the next Civil War though... ;)
I mean Lincoln put a Democrat on his ticket literally during a Civil War and that worked out great. Not one bad thing resulted from that move.
Quote from: Valmy on July 24, 2024, 01:14:45 PMI mean Lincoln put a Democrat on his ticket literally during a Civil War and that worked out great. Not one bad thing resulted from that move.
America lost its one shot at having a President Hannibal.
https://www.cbsnews.com/news/kamala-harris-vp-vetting/
Hmm...
QuoteMultiple sources tell CBS News that the list of candidates includes several governors: Josh Shapiro of Pennsylvania, Roy Cooper of North Carolina, Andy Beshear of Kentucky, Tim Walz of Minnesota, J.B. Pritzker of Illinois and Gretchen Whitmer of Michigan.
...
Members of the Biden administration, including Commerce Secretary Gina Raimondo and Transportation Secretary Pete Buttigieg are also being considered, along with Arizona Sen. Mark Kelly, among others.
As a Rhode Ilsander, I say no to Raimondo, she's a component technocratic centrist and that's it
Quote from: viper37 on July 24, 2024, 12:49:35 PMBiden has an accent? Weird. I don't notice it.
He does. He has a slight, but noticeable, Philadelphia accent.
Tim Walz of Minnesota would be pretty surprising choice, since he is rather Bernie-ish. But he is a Midwesterner so that would be cool.
Quote from: Valmy on July 25, 2024, 09:57:21 AMTim Walz of Minnesota would be pretty surprising choice, since he is rather Bernie-ish. But he is a Midwesterner so that would be cool.
(https://media.discordapp.net/attachments/773237574898024470/1265803904449515682/Screenshot_20240724_124232_Bluesky.png?ex=66a2d740&is=66a185c0&hm=e25c1f794bda1e142f1f84dd8239b7167b5e4daac1e5b80fa014227b25539cbb&=&format=webp&quality=lossless&width=839&height=850)
Quote from: viper37 on July 24, 2024, 12:49:35 PMQuote from: Savonarola on July 23, 2024, 08:35:20 AMGretchen Whitmer; we haven't had a vice president that spoke without an accent since the end of the Nixon era so I think we're due. :)
;)
Edit: Also the VP debate would be the legendary rivalry: Michigan vs. Ohio.
Biden has an accent? Weird. I don't notice it.
The joke is that Whitmer (and Gerald Ford) are from Michigan and therefore, from my perspective, have no accent. (Actually we all grew up in the same city, Grand Rapids, I'm just the under-achiever. ;) )
Quote from: Valmy on July 25, 2024, 09:57:21 AMTim Walz of Minnesota would be pretty surprising choice, since he is rather Bernie-ish. But he is a Midwesterner so that would be cool.
And there's "Fargo" season 7 sorted.
Quote from: Savonarola on July 25, 2024, 04:33:07 PMThe joke is that Whitmer (and Gerald Ford) are from Michigan and therefore, from my perspective, have no accent. (Actually we all grew up in the same city, Grand Rapids, I'm just the under-achiever. ;) )
I always think of GR as de Vos country, from my stay over in the Amway Grand Plaza.
Quote from: Savonarola on July 25, 2024, 04:33:07 PMQuote from: viper37 on July 24, 2024, 12:49:35 PMQuote from: Savonarola on July 23, 2024, 08:35:20 AMGretchen Whitmer; we haven't had a vice president that spoke without an accent since the end of the Nixon era so I think we're due. :)
;)
Edit: Also the VP debate would be the legendary rivalry: Michigan vs. Ohio.
Biden has an accent? Weird. I don't notice it.
The joke is that Whitmer (and Gerald Ford) are from Michigan and therefore, from my perspective, have no accent. (Actually we all grew up in the same city, Grand Rapids, I'm just the under-achiever. ;) )
Ahhh. I get it! :)
Quote from: The Minsky Moment on July 25, 2024, 10:17:26 PMQuote from: Savonarola on July 25, 2024, 04:33:07 PMThe joke is that Whitmer (and Gerald Ford) are from Michigan and therefore, from my perspective, have no accent. (Actually we all grew up in the same city, Grand Rapids, I'm just the under-achiever. ;) )
I always think of GR as de Vos country, from my stay over in the Amway Grand Plaza.
Western Michigan used to have some of the most liberal counties in the state. They've now completely inverted that.
Quote from: The Minsky Moment on July 25, 2024, 10:17:26 PMI always think of GR as de Vos country, from my stay over in the Amway Grand Plaza.
Which is worse, being the hometown of Gerald Ford, or being the hometown of Amway? :(
(Amway, unquestionably, if you ask me.)
When I was young they once had a "Wizard of Oz" convention the Amway Grand Plaza Convention Center; apparently the organizers thought that Judy Garland was from Grand Rapids, Michigan rather than Grand Rapids, Minnesota. (For those outside the United States, that's not that uncommon of a mistake. Michigan's abbreviation is MI while Minnesota is MN.)
Interesting
https://www.axios.com/2024/07/31/kamala-harris-vp-pick-wall-street-donors
Quote"The Harris campaign is pressing Wall Street donors to cut their checks as soon as possible, citing a financial rule that bars contributions to tickets featuring a sitting governor," Axios reports.
"The urgency of the requests has led some donors to conclude that Harris plans to pick a governor — and not a senator, like Mark Kelly of Arizona — to be her running mate."
"If the campaign signals are being correctly interpreted, that would narrow the veepstakes down to Kentucky Gov. Andy Beshear, Pennsylvania Gov. Josh Shapiro, and Minnesota Gov. Tim Walz."
I was pulling for Mark Kelly, on the grounds that he dressed up as a gorilla on the ISS.
But as I googled it to make sure, it turns out it was his twin brother Scott - although Mark sent him the gorilla suit.
Looks like it will be Shapiro. Harris will make a public statement in Philadelphia next Tuesday.
Is this no money for governers thing a concern? It sounds weird and potentially a bit of a hindrance?
Though shapiro makes sense. Pennsylvsnia is the key one to lock down right?
Quote from: Josquius on July 31, 2024, 02:37:10 PMThough shapiro makes sense. Pennsylvsnia is the key one to lock down right?
I don't think that's a given.
Quote from: Josquius on July 31, 2024, 02:37:10 PMIs this no money for governers thing a concern? It sounds weird and potentially a bit of a hindrance?
Though shapiro makes sense. Pennsylvsnia is the key one to lock down right?
It's a very large, very swing, state. So no single state is essential, but PA is important.
The knock against Shapiro as I understand it though is that he is, well, Jewish. And the activist left of the Democratic Party is very much on the pro-Palestinian side of things in the Middle East.
Now worth noting that Harris' husband is also Jewish, even though Harris herself is not.
Who's Afraid of Josh Shapiro?The Pennsylvania governor called Benjamin Netanyahu "one of the worst leaders of all time." But anti-Israel activists don't want him on the Democratic ticket.
QuoteA politician designed in a lab to help Democrats win pivotal Rust Belt swing states would probably look a lot like Josh Shapiro. In 2016, when Donald Trump won Pennsylvania by less than 1 percent of the vote, Shapiro was elected attorney general by nearly 3 percent. In 2020, when Joe Biden won the state by one point, Shapiro won reelection by more than four points. And in 2022, the Democrat took the governorship by a whopping 15 percent.
Today, Shapiro's favorability in Pennsylvania stands at a commanding 61 percent, far outstripping Kamala Harris's 49 percent in the state. Leaks from the Republican camp suggest that party strategists see the governor as one of their most formidable potential adversaries in a presidential campaign. There's just one problem.
"He's Jewish," CNN's John King noted last week, so "there could be some risk in putting him on the ticket." In fact, Shapiro might be the most visibly Jewish elected official in America: He keeps kosher, has weekly Shabbat dinner with his family, and even quotes Jewish scripture in his political speeches. The sole race he ever lost was for student-body president at his Jewish day school.
Events have borne out King's concern. Today, Shapiro is the only veep contender subject to an organized campaign to capsize his prospective nomination. Put together by hard-left congressional staffers and members of Democratic Socialists of America, among others, the push is ostensibly about Shapiro's support for Israel. "Tell Kamala and the Democrats now," reads the site NoGenocideJosh.com, "say no to Genocide Josh Shapiro for Vice President."
Anti-Israel partisans have every right to advocate against candidates who oppose their cause, and there's nothing inherently anti-Semitic about doing so. But as its name implies, the "Genocide Josh" campaign is not about applying a single standard on Palestine to all VP contenders; it's about applying them to one person, who just so happens to be the only Jew on the shortlist. And to make matters more absurd, Shapiro's positions on Israel don't come close to fitting the epithet.
"I personally believe Benjamin Netanyahu is one of the worst leaders of all time," Shapiro told reporters in January, months before Democratic Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer called for the Israeli leader to resign. At the time, Shapiro also pressed for an "immediate two-state solution," something Netanyahu and his hard-right government stridently oppose. The anti-Shapiro campaign ignores these remarks but makes much of the governor's comparison of campus Gaza protesters to "people dressed up in KKK outfits." When he said that in an interview, however, Shapiro was distinguishing between bigoted extremists—such as the Columbia campus-protest leader who called for killing "Zionists"—and peaceful demonstrators, about whom the governor has said, "It's right for young people to righteously protest and question."
Now consider the other vice-presidential contenders. Arizona's Senator Mark Kelly leads the Democratic-nominee prediction markets along with Shapiro. Like the Pennsylvania governor, Kelly also supported using police to break up campus encampments. "Everybody has the right to protest peacefully," he said, "but when it turns into unlawful acts—we've seen this in a number of colleges and universities, including here in Arizona—it's appropriate for the police to step in." In the same interview, Kelly said that the Israelis "have to do a better job" reducing civilian casualties in Gaza, but drew on his military experience to explain the difficulty of that task, and emphasized that "Hamas, without question, is the biggest impediment to peace in the Middle East." Last week, Kelly attended Netanyahu's address to Congress and applauded.
Unlike Shapiro, North Carolina Governor Roy Cooper didn't simply enforce preexisting state laws against boycotts of Israel while in office—he signed one himself in 2017. This month, Cooper codified into state law a definition of anti-Semitism that has been adopted by many countries around the world, but that left-wing critics argue penalizes speech critical of Israel. Tim Walz, the governor of Minnesota, flew state flags at half-mast after October 7 and did not respond to activists who called on the state to divest from Israel. Some were arrested after protesting outside his residence.
That all of these politicians support Israel should not come as a surprise. After all, Harris is searching for a moderate to help her win swing voters in states that are currently polling in the Trump column. Although some Democrats have grown more critical of Israel, Americans back the country by a two-to-one margin and oppose the recent campus protests, which means that any VP nominee considered by Harris would likely share such views.
And yet, activists have not organized in force to discredit any of the non-Jewish contenders for vice president on these grounds. There are no viral memes against "Killer Kelly" or "War-Crimes Walz." Either the activists involved are extraordinarily lazy and never thought to investigate the other VP possibilities, or they think that Jews are uniquely untrustworthy. Seen in context, the "Genocide Josh" campaign and its tendentious reading of Shapiro's record look less like a legitimate political critique than a rigged litmus test imposed on the Jewish lawmaker alone.
Sadly, this selective stigmatization isn't new to progressive politics. In 2021, the Washington, D.C., branch of the climate-action group Sunrise Movement pulled out of a voting-rights rally because of the participation of three American Jewish groups. All three were known for their progressive domestic-policy advocacy and supported a two-state solution to the Israeli-Palestinian conflict. But the D.C. chapter of Sunrise nonetheless argued for their exclusion because the groups were "Zionist."
The large majority of supporters of Israel and Zionism throughout history have been—like President Biden—not Jewish. Yet the Sunrise branch made no demands of the many non-Jewish groups at the rally; they effectively carded only Jews at the door. The organization later apologized and called the incident "an opportunity to grow." That growth seems to have been stunted. Today, the national Sunrise Movement is echoing the rhetoric of the "Genocide Josh" campaign, while it has remained mum on the Israel stances of all other VP contenders.
It has become hard to escape the conclusion that some of the activists imposing this inquisition have a problem not just with Israel or Zionism but with Jews, who they assume are serving a foreign power, no matter what they've actually said or done. Historically, this is nothing new. The white-nationalist right has long sought to stigmatize American Jews as subversive and exclude them from political life, arguing that Jews are loyal only to their own kind. In this case, however, some on the progressive left are the ones treating Jewish identity as inherently suspect and holding Jewish political actors to a different standard than their non-Jewish counterparts.
The irony of this whole affair is that Shapiro has actually been more outspoken against Israel's leadership than Biden or Harris. Few Rust Belt governors would publicly rebuke the prime minister of a foreign country, let alone that of an ally like Israel. But Shapiro knows a thing or two about the subject, which is why he feels comfortable assailing both Netanyahu for thwarting peace and extremist campus protesters for engaging in anti-Semitism. The two positions are not contradictory except to binary thinkers who treat the Israeli-Palestinian conflict as a partisan sport, and whose understanding of the issue derives from social-media slogans. Marooned in their moralism, the "Genocide Josh" brigade misses what makes Shapiro so interesting.
The truth is that whatever Shapiro's views, a Jewish vice president would function in precisely the opposite manner from what these critics fear. Far from a sinister Semitic Svengali suborning the president to an Israeli agenda, a Jewish veep would be trotted out to defend Harris in her inevitable conflicts with Israel's right-wing government, and to insulate the boss from charges of anti-Semitism. As one Republican Senate staffer put it to Jewish Insider last week, if Shapiro is picked, "forget about claiming we're the only party standing against anti-Semitism."
The perverse politics of Jewish identity are one reason I've never been enthusiastic about the prospect of a Jewish president or vice president. Anti-Semitism conceives of Jews as clandestine puppeteers who control the world's governments and economies, fueling political and social problems. A Jewish vice president would provide the perfect canvas for these fevered fantasies—a largely ceremonial figure onto whom bigots could nonetheless project all of their conspiracies, casting him as the real power behind the Resolute Desk.
Harris would be foolish to discard any compelling VP option over their views on an intractable foreign-policy conflict thousands of miles away, while Americans stare down the prospect of another Trump presidency here at home. With the polls as tight as they are, and her campaign starting from behind, she is unlikely to choose her running mate based on unrepresentative online outrage rather than cold electoral calculus. If she picks a Jewish vice president, it will be for his impact on the Electoral College—not the Middle East.
Looks like it's down to Shapiro and Walz, who was not on my initial list, nor did anyone vote for other and list him.
Quote from: jimmy olsen on August 05, 2024, 08:45:11 PMLooks like it's down to Shapiro and Walz, who was not on my initial list, nor did anyone vote for other and list him.
Walz wasn't on my radar at the time but now I think he is the best choice.
Quote from: Barrister on July 31, 2024, 03:29:36 PMIt's a very large, very swing, state. So no single state is essential, but PA is important.
The knock against Shapiro as I understand it though is that he is, well, Jewish. And the activist left of the Democratic Party is very much on the pro-Palestinian side of things in the Middle East.
Now worth noting that Harris' husband is also Jewish, even though Harris herself is not.
Shapiro is good to. But I just feel like there is something special about Walz. I mean the "activist left" (I mean plenty of leftist activists care about lots more than just this one foreign policy issue) needs to be appeased to some extent so they show up and vote, at least in the states that matter, but I don't think Shapiro is going to turn many of them off that much,.
I think Harris is guaranteed to make a good choice here with those two finalists. That is an encouraging sign.
Didn't know anything about Walz...but his military background is as fellow enlisted scum (even if National Guard), so a plus there.
I heard Walz interviewed on the Ezra Klein podcast. He is plain spoken and is anything but an "elite". Seems a perfect antidote to Trumpism and a dramatic contrast to Vance.
Quote from: grumbler on July 26, 2024, 12:00:23 PMQuote from: The Minsky Moment on July 25, 2024, 10:17:26 PMQuote from: Savonarola on July 25, 2024, 04:33:07 PMThe joke is that Whitmer (and Gerald Ford) are from Michigan and therefore, from my perspective, have no accent. (Actually we all grew up in the same city, Grand Rapids, I'm just the under-achiever. ;) )
I always think of GR as de Vos country, from my stay over in the Amway Grand Plaza.
Western Michigan used to have some of the most liberal counties in the state. They've now completely inverted that.
How did that happen? Interstate immigration? Economic hardships?
Walz is a much, much better option than Shapiro and a lot more palatable for those on the Left for more than just his Israel/Palestine stance being significantly more moderated than Shapiro. Shapiro is also worse to their, and my own, eyes in regards to fracking, unions, corporate taxes, pro-school vouchers, taking MAGA money, and additional things brought up here already. Honestly, I think he's a better choice for more moderate voters, too, to be honest.
I think Christoph Waltz would make an excellent VP, but is he eligible as native Austrian? :unsure:
Quote from: Tonitrus on August 05, 2024, 09:50:01 PMDidn't know anything about Walz...but his military background is as fellow enlisted scum (even if National Guard), so a plus there.
Sergeant Major!
Walz is the pic!
My poll was a disaster. :lol:
https://vxtwitter.com/larrysabato/status/1820804579958673762?s=46&t=BHs6Pl38GJXGN2Y4xeriNA
btw my introduction to Walz was on the 'White Dudes for Harris' podcast, and I really liked him. I agree he will play well to the center.
Quote from: viper37 on August 06, 2024, 12:57:05 AMHow did that happen? Interstate immigration? Economic hardships?
I wasn't living in-state when it happened, but my understanding is that it was mostly:
1. Intrastate migration, people fleeing the urban expansion in southeast Michigan (Detroit region) - for which read the influx of minorities, especially Arab minorities, and
2. Radicalization of people living far from a big city and big city journalism by social media.
If Kamala wins and Walz ends up as VP, Peggy Flanagan (Minnesota Lt. Governor) will be the first Native American woman governor ever. Which is pretty cool. :)
Really happy we got a midwestern type Union guy on the ballot. That will not only really help with the midwestern vote but also signals the return to focusing on working people by the Democrats, which is really important in this age of populism.
All this optimism on Languish. It's weird.
Quote from: Valmy on August 06, 2024, 10:08:11 AMReally happy we got a midwestern type Union guy on the ballot.
Yeah he'll hopefully bring with him the entire Lutheran steppe khanate. :hmm:
Pdox forums like it. The Euros are relieved that there is no Jews on the ticket.
Victory for none of the above!
Quote from: Razgovory on August 06, 2024, 12:06:31 PMPdox forums like it. The Euros are relieved that there is no Jews on the ticket.
Well, Kamala's husband...
Quote from: Valmy on August 06, 2024, 12:23:08 PMQuote from: Razgovory on August 06, 2024, 12:06:31 PMPdox forums like it. The Euros are relieved that there is no Jews on the ticket.
Well, Kamala's husband...
Is on the ticket?
Quote from: garbon on August 06, 2024, 12:27:41 PMQuote from: Valmy on August 06, 2024, 12:23:08 PMQuote from: Razgovory on August 06, 2024, 12:06:31 PMPdox forums like it. The Euros are relieved that there is no Jews on the ticket.
Well, Kamala's husband...
Is on the ticket?
No. But still I don't think this ticket is the sort of anti-Jew indicator Paradox seems to thi k.
Quote from: Valmy on August 06, 2024, 12:29:34 PMNo. But still I don't think this ticket is the sort of anti-Jew indicator Paradox seems to thi k.
Is that the actual sentiment on Paradox, or is it Raz's interpretation of the sentiment on Paradox?
Quote from: Jacob on August 06, 2024, 01:00:55 PMQuote from: Valmy on August 06, 2024, 12:29:34 PMNo. But still I don't think this ticket is the sort of anti-Jew indicator Paradox seems to thi k.
Is that the actual sentiment on Paradox, or is it Raz's interpretation of the sentiment on Paradox?
Probably Raz's interpretation. Besides the only Jew to ever be on a major party Presidential ticket was Joe Lieberman, AFAIK anyway, so being relieved to see a Jew free ticket is rather odd.
But I don't know. The internet has surprised me with the extent it hates Jews in the past.
My interpretation. You can't say you don't like Jews on Pdox.
Quote from: Jacob on August 06, 2024, 01:00:55 PMQuote from: Valmy on August 06, 2024, 12:29:34 PMNo. But still I don't think this ticket is the sort of anti-Jew indicator Paradox seems to thi k.
Is that the actual sentiment on Paradox, or is it Raz's interpretation of the sentiment on Paradox?
I was thinking it would explain a lot if true
Several posters expressed their relief over the pick. I don't think they were worried about the astronaut getting it.
I like him a lot :lol: :ph34r:
My one slight concern is whether he's a bit of a frothy online pick (hence why I like him).
Quote from: Valmy on August 06, 2024, 10:08:11 AMReally happy we got a midwestern type Union guy on the ballot. That will not only really help with the midwestern vote but also signals the return to focusing on working people by the Democrats, which is really important in this age of populism.
I thought we were supposed to get that with Biden.
Quote from: Admiral Yi on August 06, 2024, 01:29:52 PMI thought we were supposed to get that with Biden.
And we did to some extent, that was the key to his popularity to the extent he was popular. He had a long career associated with third-way policies working against him though.
Quote from: Valmy on August 06, 2024, 01:54:48 PMAnd we did to some extent, that was the key to his popularity to the extent he was popular. He had a long career associated with third-way policies working against him though.
Did we? I'm not aware of any polls showing movement of high school educated males moving to the blue column. I am aware of polls showing senior citizens defecting from Trump because of his dysfunctional handling of covid.
I worry that Democrats tell themselves if they support unions and raising the minimum wage this will equate to "fighting for the working man." The blue collar guys I know aren't crazy about unions, often see them unfairly pampered competitors, and aren't affected by the minimum wage.
May be true, Yi.
That said, at the same time I've read a fair bit about how a good proportion of white-dude union workers have gone MAGA over the years. If true, it would probably be useful to win some of those back.
Quote from: Jacob on August 06, 2024, 04:04:42 PMMay be true, Yi.
That said, at the same time I've read a fair bit about how a good proportion of white-dude union workers have gone MAGA over the years. If true, it would probably be useful to win some of those back.
It was supposed to be useful for Biden to win them back. Why would Waltz do better?
Quote from: Admiral Yi on August 06, 2024, 04:19:25 PMIt was supposed to be useful for Biden to win them back. Why would Waltz do better?
Presumably their votes are still being contested, so having someone that appeals to them is better than not.
I can't tell you why Walz would be more (or less) effective than Biden, though.
I just saw Shapiro's speech in Philadelphia. The guy is a fantastic speaker.
Quote from: Razgovory on August 06, 2024, 04:49:08 PMI just saw Shapiro's speech in Philadelphia. The guy is a fantastic speaker.
And the resemblance of his voice to Obama's can be disconcerting.
Quote from: Jacob on August 06, 2024, 04:43:53 PMPresumably their votes are still being contested, so having someone that appeals to them is better than not.
I can't tell you why Walz would be more (or less) effective than Biden, though.
Walz is far closer to being one of them than any candidate in recent memory. For a lot of them, coaching a high school football team to a state championship is more impressive than getting a law degree.
Quote from: grumbler on August 06, 2024, 06:06:00 PMQuote from: Jacob on August 06, 2024, 04:43:53 PMPresumably their votes are still being contested, so having someone that appeals to them is better than not.
I can't tell you why Walz would be more (or less) effective than Biden, though.
Walz is far closer to being one of them than any candidate in recent memory. For a lot of them, coaching a high school football team to a state championship is more impressive than getting a law degree.
I also think so to be honest.
Sounds like it could make for some fun snippets if he can draw out trump/vance into a sports related talk when they seem like they may not even know the basic rules of American football.
Quote from: Admiral Yi on August 06, 2024, 03:59:52 PMQuote from: Valmy on August 06, 2024, 01:54:48 PMAnd we did to some extent, that was the key to his popularity to the extent he was popular. He had a long career associated with third-way policies working against him though.
Did we? I'm not aware of any polls showing movement of high school educated males moving to the blue column. I am aware of polls showing senior citizens defecting from Trump because of his dysfunctional handling of covid.
I worry that Democrats tell themselves if they support unions and raising the minimum wage this will equate to "fighting for the working man." The blue collar guys I know aren't crazy about unions, often see them unfairly pampered competitors, and aren't affected by the minimum wage.
Oh so if we really want to help working people we should work to suppress wages? Is that what these blue collar guys want?
Quote from: Valmy on August 07, 2024, 11:07:16 AMOh so if we really want to help working people we should work to suppress wages? Is that what these blue collar guys want?
My hunch is this is not the only other option.
Quote from: Admiral Yi on August 07, 2024, 04:34:30 PMQuote from: Valmy on August 07, 2024, 11:07:16 AMOh so if we really want to help working people we should work to suppress wages? Is that what these blue collar guys want?
My hunch is this is not the only other option.
Mine is to, hence why I asked :P
Quote from: Savonarola on July 26, 2024, 12:34:38 PMWhen I was young they once had a "Wizard of Oz" convention the Amway Grand Plaza Convention Center; apparently the organizers thought that Judy Garland was from Grand Rapids, Michigan rather than Grand Rapids, Minnesota. (For those outside the United States, that's not that uncommon of a mistake. Michigan's abbreviation is MI while Minnesota is MN.)
On that subject, I just came across a brief bio of jazz bassist Ron Carter, which listed his birthplace as Ferndale, Mississippi; rather than Ferndale, Michigan (MS vs. MI.)