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General Category => Off the Record => Topic started by: Jacob on December 05, 2023, 05:26:27 PM

Title: Venezuela vs Guyana
Post by: Jacob on December 05, 2023, 05:26:27 PM
On Dec 3rd, Venezuela held a referendum on whether they should annex about 2/3 of neighbouring Guyana's territory. Apparently they had about 50% turnout, with 95% of the votes cast favouring the annexation.

Brazil has reportedly moved troops to the area.
Title: Re: Venezuela vs Guyana
Post by: Grey Fox on December 05, 2023, 05:28:48 PM
On who's side is Brazil? Will they guarantee Guyana's territory or annex it for itself?
Title: Re: Venezuela vs Guyana
Post by: Josquius on December 05, 2023, 05:29:10 PM
Less a threat of war than Ethiopia - Eritrea imo. It would be just too stupid from Venezuela. I wonder what their plan is.
Title: Re: Venezuela vs Guyana
Post by: Jacob on December 05, 2023, 05:32:33 PM
Putin's calling in favours. Stir up shit to pull attention away from my own fuckups.

Just kidding. Maybe. I don't know.
Title: Re: Venezuela vs Guyana
Post by: Duque de Bragança on December 05, 2023, 06:09:31 PM
Quote from: Grey Fox on December 05, 2023, 05:28:48 PMOn who's side is Brazil? Will they guarantee Guyana's territory or annex it for itself?

They are interested by Guyane, not Guyana. Already occupied during the Napoleonic Wars.  :P
More seriously, I don't see Lula being that stupid. Brazil has no claim on Guyana.
Title: Re: Venezuela vs Guyana
Post by: Jacob on December 05, 2023, 06:39:14 PM
My impression is that Brazil would be there as the local power, to ensure stability by a show of force.
Title: Re: Venezuela vs Guyana
Post by: Josquius on December 05, 2023, 07:09:24 PM
Yeah, Lula is quite a strong voice calling for peace in Ukraine (albeit from a naiive place that gives Russia way too much) and for a end to the current Israel shit.
Trying to stop war breaking out next door is consistent.
Title: Re: Venezuela vs Guyana
Post by: Valmy on December 05, 2023, 07:35:08 PM
Well at least we wouldn't have to go through the effort of putting sanctions on Venezuela if they invaded.

But I am sure the combined MIGHT of the Commonwealth of Nations will scare Venezuela off if Brazil doesn't. Right Canada? Right Britain?
Title: Re: Venezuela vs Guyana
Post by: jimmy olsen on December 05, 2023, 09:33:22 PM
Biden will just have the navy bomb any invading forces into submission if Venezuela is foolish enough to do that.
Title: Re: Venezuela vs Guyana
Post by: garbon on December 05, 2023, 11:41:10 PM
Quote from: Jacob on December 05, 2023, 05:26:27 PMOn Dec 3rd, Venezuela held a referendum on whether they should annex about 2/3 of neighbouring Guyana's territory. Apparently they had about 50% turnout, with 95% of the votes cast favouring the annexation.

Brazil has reportedly moved troops to the area.

I read that turnout was probably more like 10%.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2023/dec/04/maduro-venezuela-guyana-essequibo-referendum-vote-turnout
Title: Re: Venezuela vs Guyana
Post by: Jacob on December 06, 2023, 01:07:40 AM
It is possible that the details of the vote have been misreported, I suppose.
Title: Re: Venezuela vs Guyana
Post by: Sheilbh on December 06, 2023, 01:20:14 AM
Quote from: Jacob on December 05, 2023, 06:39:14 PMMy impression is that Brazil would be there as the local power, to ensure stability by a show of force.
Brazilian forces are on high alert and have been moved to the border region. Lula has historically close relationships with Maduro but I think he has been pretty strong on this.

Can't imagine the US would accept it either - and I hope the UK provides whatever support we can.
Title: Re: Venezuela vs Guyana
Post by: Crazy_Ivan80 on December 06, 2023, 01:48:26 AM
Quote from: Jacob on December 05, 2023, 05:32:33 PMPutin's calling in favours. Stir up shit to pull attention away from my own fuckups.

Just kidding. Maybe. I don't know.

It may very well be that indeed.  It is, in any case, a sign of the weakening west I think.