On Dec 3rd, Venezuela held a referendum on whether they should annex about 2/3 of neighbouring Guyana's territory. Apparently they had about 50% turnout, with 95% of the votes cast favouring the annexation.
Brazil has reportedly moved troops to the area.
On who's side is Brazil? Will they guarantee Guyana's territory or annex it for itself?
Less a threat of war than Ethiopia - Eritrea imo. It would be just too stupid from Venezuela. I wonder what their plan is.
Putin's calling in favours. Stir up shit to pull attention away from my own fuckups.
Just kidding. Maybe. I don't know.
Quote from: Grey Fox on December 05, 2023, 05:28:48 PMOn who's side is Brazil? Will they guarantee Guyana's territory or annex it for itself?
They are interested by Guyane, not Guyana. Already occupied during the Napoleonic Wars. :P
More seriously, I don't see Lula being that stupid. Brazil has no claim on Guyana.
My impression is that Brazil would be there as the local power, to ensure stability by a show of force.
Yeah, Lula is quite a strong voice calling for peace in Ukraine (albeit from a naiive place that gives Russia way too much) and for a end to the current Israel shit.
Trying to stop war breaking out next door is consistent.
Well at least we wouldn't have to go through the effort of putting sanctions on Venezuela if they invaded.
But I am sure the combined MIGHT of the Commonwealth of Nations will scare Venezuela off if Brazil doesn't. Right Canada? Right Britain?
Biden will just have the navy bomb any invading forces into submission if Venezuela is foolish enough to do that.
Quote from: Jacob on December 05, 2023, 05:26:27 PMOn Dec 3rd, Venezuela held a referendum on whether they should annex about 2/3 of neighbouring Guyana's territory. Apparently they had about 50% turnout, with 95% of the votes cast favouring the annexation.
Brazil has reportedly moved troops to the area.
I read that turnout was probably more like 10%.
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2023/dec/04/maduro-venezuela-guyana-essequibo-referendum-vote-turnout
It is possible that the details of the vote have been misreported, I suppose.
Quote from: Jacob on December 05, 2023, 06:39:14 PMMy impression is that Brazil would be there as the local power, to ensure stability by a show of force.
Brazilian forces are on high alert and have been moved to the border region. Lula has historically close relationships with Maduro but I think he has been pretty strong on this.
Can't imagine the US would accept it either - and I hope the UK provides whatever support we can.
Quote from: Jacob on December 05, 2023, 05:32:33 PMPutin's calling in favours. Stir up shit to pull attention away from my own fuckups.
Just kidding. Maybe. I don't know.
It may very well be that indeed. It is, in any case, a sign of the weakening west I think.