A thread within which to discuss the worrying collapse of Ethiopia's post famine success story.
And also the other conflicts in the region, be that Somalia and at a stretch the possible conflict with Sudan and Egypt over the Nile waters.
And now probably no one will post in this thread. :D
At some point the topic just gets discussed to death, and you can't muster up any more energy for it.
Drive-by no content post just to post in thread.
Supportive post in appreciation of dropping the totally inappropriate Egypt thread.
I know how to get this room moving:
Can you come up with any country with a worse recent counter-insurgency record than Ethiopia? Other than the US, of course.
Afghanistan-as-was.
Quote from: Agelastus on November 05, 2021, 11:07:27 AM
Afghanistan-as-was.
Could be, but is it fair to consider Afghanistan-without-foreign-occupation an actual country in the European understanding of such entities? It strikes me more as a "here we are letting the tribes be doing their thing" area designated by the rest of the world.
i.e. a fake country, created because no better alternative could be found. Like Belgium. Or Romania.
If we go down that path then the same is true of much of the world really. A lot of people have the idea that because our world is built on westphalian nation states this is the only way things have ever and can ever be. It wasn't that long ago even in European history that nations in the modern sense didn't mean too much.
If we are going down that path then I don't think Afghanistan is the main "victim". That would be more places where nomadic ways of life dominated pre colonialism. Afghanistan has a long history of being a pretty settled place, even if not a united one.
Quote from: Tyr on November 05, 2021, 11:38:57 AM
If we go down that path then the same is true of much of the world really. A lot of people have the idea that because our world is built on westphalian nation states this is the only way things have ever and can ever be. It wasn't that long ago even in European history that nations in the modern sense didn't mean too much.
If we are going down that path then I don't think Afghanistan is the main "victim". That would be more places where nomadic ways of life dominated pre colonialism. Afghanistan has a long history of being a pretty settled place, even if not a united one.
Lets limit it to countries still existing then. That leaves us with Afghanistan. And Belgium.
Not very fair. Belgium has waffles, beer, and pedophiles. Not necessarily in that order.
Quote from: The Brain on November 05, 2021, 12:09:55 PM
Not very fair. Belgium has waffles, beer, and pedophiles. Not necessarily in that order.
No mention of the FN ? For shame :thumbsdown:
Quote from: Duque de Bragança on November 05, 2021, 12:22:52 PM
Quote from: The Brain on November 05, 2021, 12:09:55 PM
Not very fair. Belgium has waffles, beer, and pedophiles. Not necessarily in that order.
No mention of the FN ? For shame :thumbsdown:
Or "the sepulchral city".
Quote from: The Brain on November 05, 2021, 12:24:59 PM
Quote from: Duque de Bragança on November 05, 2021, 12:22:52 PM
Quote from: The Brain on November 05, 2021, 12:09:55 PM
Not very fair. Belgium has waffles, beer, and pedophiles. Not necessarily in that order.
No mention of the FN ? For shame :thumbsdown:
Or "the sepulchral city".
Leave Debussy alone.
Quote from: Agelastus on November 05, 2021, 11:07:27 AM
Afghanistan-as-was.
Not comparable. Ethiopia's GDP doubled in the last 6 years (to 2020) with GDP per capital reaching almost double that of Afghanistan. it's true that the country suffers from a lot of intra-regional and ethnic tensions but the current conflict was really a "war of choice" by the central government; it was avoidable and should have been avoided.
Quote from: The Minsky Moment on November 05, 2021, 12:47:42 PM
Quote from: Agelastus on November 05, 2021, 11:07:27 AM
Afghanistan-as-was.
Not comparable. Ethiopia's GDP doubled in the last 6 years (to 2020) with GDP per capital reaching almost double that of Afghanistan. it's true that the country suffers from a lot of intra-regional and ethnic tensions but the current conflict was really a "war of choice" by the central government; it was avoidable and should have been avoided.
Indeed. They thought they can overrun the rebels and now face the possibility of losing their capital. USA-level debacle.
:rolleyes: When was the US capital under threat from the rebels?
Capitol ≠ Capital
Quote from: DGuller on November 05, 2021, 01:09:34 PM
:rolleyes: When was the US capital under threat from the rebels?
Under threat? January of this year.
Quote from: Tamas on November 05, 2021, 12:55:24 PM
USA-level debacle.
Also not *exactly* comparable. :D
Quote from: The Minsky Moment on November 05, 2021, 12:47:42 PM
Quote from: Agelastus on November 05, 2021, 11:07:27 AM
Afghanistan-as-was.
Not comparable. Ethiopia's GDP doubled in the last 6 years (to 2020) with GDP per capital reaching almost double that of Afghanistan. it's true that the country suffers from a lot of intra-regional and ethnic tensions but the current conflict was really a "war of choice" by the central government; it was avoidable and should have been avoided.
The question was "Can you come up with any country with a worse recent counter-insurgency record than Ethiopia? Other than the US, of course."
So, the western backed government of Afghanistan failed to crush the Taliban.
Before that the Taliban failed to crush the Northern Alliance.
Before that the ex-Mujahideen government of Afghanistan failed to crush the Taliban.
Before that the Communist government of Afghanistan failed to crush the Mujahideen.
Not a very proud record, particularly with 2 different superpowers backing a couple of the governments for several years before pulling out.
--------------------------
And yes, the current war in Ethiopia was a "war of choice". One I suspect was intended from the moment the current incumbent became President and that may now have blown up in his face quite spectacularly.
I'd argue that the pro-western Afghan government was not an independent entity like the Ethiopian one, but a puppet state of the US.
Quote from: Duque de Bragança on November 05, 2021, 12:38:13 PM
Quote from: The Brain on November 05, 2021, 12:24:59 PM
Quote from: Duque de Bragança on November 05, 2021, 12:22:52 PM
Quote from: The Brain on November 05, 2021, 12:09:55 PM
Not very fair. Belgium has waffles, beer, and pedophiles. Not necessarily in that order.
No mention of the FN ? For shame :thumbsdown:
Or "the sepulchral city".
Leave Debussy alone.
I love Debussy.
Quote from: DGuller on November 05, 2021, 07:52:19 AM
At some point the topic just gets discussed to death, and you can't muster up any more energy for it.
How often have we discussed Ethiopia? Almost never
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/nov/05/nine-ethiopian-factions-to-form-alliance-against-government
QuoteNine anti-government factions in Ethiopia are to form an alliance, as pressure mounts on the country's prime minister, Abiy Ahmed, with rebel forces advancing toward the capital.
The alliance, called the United Front of Ethiopian Federalist and Confederalist Forces, includes the Tigray People's Liberation Front (TPLF), which has been fighting Abiy's government for a year in a war that has killed thousands of people and forced more than 2 million more from their homes.
Two of the groups, the Oromo Liberation Army (OLA) and the Agaw Democratic Movement (ADM), confirmed the announcement was genuine.
Quote from: The Brain on November 05, 2021, 03:07:35 PM
Quote from: Duque de Bragança on November 05, 2021, 12:38:13 PM
Quote from: The Brain on November 05, 2021, 12:24:59 PM
Quote from: Duque de Bragança on November 05, 2021, 12:22:52 PM
Quote from: The Brain on November 05, 2021, 12:09:55 PM
Not very fair. Belgium has waffles, beer, and pedophiles. Not necessarily in that order.
No mention of the FN ? For shame :thumbsdown:
Or "the sepulchral city".
Leave Debussy alone.
I love Debussy.
:hmm:
The Ethiopian government is throwing entirely untrained civilians into battle; echoes of Stalin's extremism during the dark days of 41-42?
Quote from: mongers on November 08, 2021, 07:18:10 AM
The Ethiopian government is throwing entirely untrained civilians into battle; echoes of Stalin's extremism during the dark days of 41-42?
Referring to this?
https://twitter.com/MapEthiopia/status/1457483721473503235
https://twitter.com/MapEthiopia/status/1457487568426225670
QuoteAcross the Amhara region militias continue to form to go to fight on the front lines. Pictures show hundreds of men rallying in western Gojjam before heading to the front.
It does seem like perhaps some standardization is taking place with this group in regards to rifles. Though they are obsolete and inferior to what they will go up against, it's better than the machetes which were being handed out last month. Will keep an eye out for trends.
(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FDoFtvyX0AAHXv7?format=jpg&name=medium)
(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FDoFtvtXIAIx8ga?format=jpg&name=medium)
(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FDoFtv0X0AMLjIZ?format=jpg&name=medium)
(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FDoFtvsX0AM3oGt?format=jpg&name=medium)
I mean, aren't these guys supposed to go against sort of guerrillas who also defeated a regular army? That's not the kind of enemy I would pick a fight with untrained. I guess it will depend on their morale i.e. how much (and how validly) they feel they are protecting their families etc. by fighting.
We are about to see why simply giving someone a rifle doesn't make them a soldier.
Abbi has now gone to the front, no reports yet of him actually fighting unless photo-ops count.
What did Nicholas II do on the front?
Of Honcho?
The Ethiopians have imposed a form of martial law on a town just 125km north of the Capital; a TPLF gamble to reach the outskirts of Addis Ababa isn't out of the question.