As some of you will know I've recently accepted a new job offer. There's a variety of reasons why I'm wanting to leave my old role and move onto something new, but in one key area it initially looks a smart move (fingers crossed) - salary.
In my current role I was earning a decent salary for the north.
In my new role, where I'll keep working from home as I have been for the past year and a half, I will be earning a decent salary for London.
This amounts to a very substantial pay boost.
I have no doubt that I'm not the only one to notice the benefit of remote working in earning more money... but by the same reasoning used by employees in chasing wealthy city salaries then surely its logical for employers to hire people from poorer cities.
Google is proving pretty controversial with this lately, e.g.
https://www.inc.com/minda-zetlin/google-remote-pay-cut-calculator-facebook-twitter-employees-policy.html
QuoteGoogle may reduce the salaries of employees who choose to work at home full-time, based on the cost of living where they live, according to an internal calculator viewed by Reuters. It's an idea that's gaining traction in Silicon Valley and elsewhere. It may seem sensible, given that a salary that barely covers a San Francisco studio apartment might get you a mansion in, say, Topeka. That's the logic Google says it's using. "Our compensation packages have always been determined by location," a spokesperson told Reuters.
<snip>
So...its clear covid has caused many years of progress on the remote working front in a very short period.
As mentioned there's the great resignation factor, which in a way is great, democratising access to high paying jobs for all... but on the other hand why keep paying these high salaries if you can find an Indian guy willing to work for much less?
Additionally in the UK at least the whole country is currently engaged in an epic game of musical chairs as the housing market is a mess with people taking advantage of the fact they don't have to be in London to use their London-money to buy a decent house somewhere nicer.
So. A purpose for where I'm going with this thread...
When the dust settles...how will things look?
Its beyond doubt that the current spike in hiring and job switching is due to pent up demand from the past year and a half. Nonetheless the trends do seem to be here to stay unless the work from home progress is dramatically rolled back.
Will the major cities with top salaries see a stuttering and potential reversal in what they pay?
Will salaries have to do more to equalise nationally- to an extent even globally?
Will Google's lead be the one to follow with companies paying according to your address (cue: an upsurge in people buying Geneva post boxes)?
Is this a sledge hammer to the head of already struggling city centres, massively disrupting their attempts to transition away from shopping?- or will it prove a lifeline to smaller town centres allowing them to lead the way in doing this?
Will covid see a black death level of economic reshaping? Or will everything be swiftly rolled back to how it was before?
So many questions, so many thoughts to be had.
I'd leave my job, but I am in my mid 40s and have 20 years in a pension system. I'm not sure I could really afford to. :(
Part of what you raise (India) has been a perpetual part of outsourcing thoughts. From my experience, companies go in waves about outsourcing (doing it and reversing). I do know in my last company we eventually offshored some basic functions but left much of the thinking/front-line customer roles in US/UK.
I do think to some extent companies were already paying towards address as I'm pretty sure it was factored in against salaries of say employees not based in London/regularly in the office.
If working from home persists and becomes a major thing (I most certainly hope for that but not 100% convinced it's going to happen now) then I am sure it will have the effect of liberating talented people from having to move to major urban centres to get a career. That's bound to be a major boost for regions with reasonable infrastructure but cheaper living.
BUT, I think that's largely going to remain within borders.
International outsourcing has considerable barriers, tax administration and data security jump to mind. It has also been ongoing for several decades, and I find it unlikely it is going to drastically increase in scale (but will to a minor degree).
What's a bit more interesting question is what the possible effects are within the EU - but there the language barriers mean the options for living abroad within the EU without a fall in life quality is a limited option at best. Brits lose out majorly here of course - taking your decent London pay and work from some remote Spanish town e.g. would be nice. Not to mention the financial advantages if you are from Eastern Europe and could earn your British wages from there. :P
But, again, it's not going to be a major thing, of that I am quite certain.
Quote from: garbon on September 07, 2021, 06:28:46 AM
Part of what you raise (India) has been a perpetual part of outsourcing thoughts. From my experience, companies go in waves about outsourcing (doing it and reversing). I do know in my last company we eventually offshored some basic functions but left much of the thinking/front-line customer roles in US/UK.
This is true.
However its important to remember there that the goal is purely about lowering costs and offloading shit work on India, the Philippines, etc....
The way it tends to work is that anyone halfway competent in those jobs leverages the big name western company on their CV to go off to do something better. This ensures the quality remains permanently crap and savings are a false economy with the constant need to train new people and redo sub-par work.
What isn't noticed so much is that above the outsourcing level dross there are plenty of talented people in poorer countries who are easily capable of working at the same level as talented people in the west. Its definitely the case with these people that they won't work for peanuts- but they will accept a substantially lower wage than their equivalents in the west and get a better quality of life from it.
I think these quality workers available around the world are potentially a real untapped resource.
Visas, taxes, et al are indeed a big problem. The system as it works now just isn't setup for cross-border working, which really needs to change.
I do wonder whether we might see the birth of a visa for working in country x but without the right to actually live in country x.
QuoteWhat isn't noticed so much is that above the outsourcing level dross there are plenty of talented people in poorer countries who are easily capable of working at the same level as talented people in the west. Its definitely the case with these people that they won't work for peanuts- but they will accept a substantially lower wage than their equivalents in the west and get a better quality of life from it.
I think these quality workers available around the world are potentially a real untapped resource.
Visas, taxes, et al are indeed a big problem. The system as it works now just isn't setup for cross-border working, which really needs to change.
I do wonder whether we might see the birth of a visa for working in country x but without the right to actually live in country x.
Yes and I had some excellent, highly skilled and motivated colleagues working in India back 2010-ish, while I was in Hungary, both of us answerable to a boss in the US.
Perhaps even more relevantly, a big part of my job was working on a process to turn a relatively skill-intensive IT task into an assembly-line style process so most of it could be done by low-skilled workers in India.
Heck, my first full time job was thanks to my big corporation liquidating jobs in Germany and hiring far cheaper Hungarian workforce in the early 00s since their job of remote server support could be done from wherever.
No doubt there'll be more appetite for that sort of thing but I don't think it'll be a major and dramatic change, simply because it's nothing new and it has been happening for quite a while now, and I think it has already reached or near-reached it's practical limits.
An issue regarding WFH is that I don't think it suits every kind of role. It might be workable with people with some experience and in a mid level or senior position, but for people starting out in their careers or with little or no work experience in the particular area in which they're working I don't think it's workable.
It also depends if a job is 100% remote/WFH or just partially, and you're still meant to be present at the office for like periodical meetings or events, or for X amount of time per week or month.
Quote from: The Larch on September 07, 2021, 07:09:49 AM
An issue regarding WFH is that I don't think it suits every kind of role. It might be workable with people with some experience and in a mid level or senior position, but for people starting out in their careers or with little or no work experience in the particular area in which they're working I don't think it's workable.
It also depends if a job is 100% remote/WFH or just partially, and you're still meant to be present at the office for like periodical meetings or events, or for X amount of time per week or month.
Indeed. Some jobs will benefit from this greatly, most will benefit to some degree (better life-work balance with partial WFH) a lot won't be affected.
Quote from: Tamas on September 07, 2021, 07:11:27 AM
Quote from: The Larch on September 07, 2021, 07:09:49 AM
An issue regarding WFH is that I don't think it suits every kind of role. It might be workable with people with some experience and in a mid level or senior position, but for people starting out in their careers or with little or no work experience in the particular area in which they're working I don't think it's workable.
It also depends if a job is 100% remote/WFH or just partially, and you're still meant to be present at the office for like periodical meetings or events, or for X amount of time per week or month.
Indeed. Some jobs will benefit from this greatly, most will benefit to some degree (better life-work balance with partial WFH) a lot won't be affected.
Even in a sector in which it could be easily applicable, I think the level of experience of the employee could be key. I don't really see abunch of kids in starting positions working remotely, they'd be much better suited to a position at an office where they could be more easily supervised and mentored, and only when they have some experience in their roles then do some WFH, and only work 100% remotely when they have a certain level of experience or seniority.
Quote from: Tamas on September 07, 2021, 06:42:34 AM
If working from home persists and becomes a major thing (I most certainly hope for that but not 100% convinced it's going to happen now) then I am sure it will have the effect of liberating talented people from having to move to major urban centres to get a career. That's bound to be a major boost for regions with reasonable infrastructure but cheaper living.
Except that I think many talented young people don't just move to urban centres for a career. That's part of it but a large part of it is being around and with other talented young people, being exposed to lots of cultural options etc. I think that side of urban life is likely to continue and be more attractive - and maybe if all the people who are only here for their career are able to move out it'll mean city's will become affordable again for more creative areas to be cultural spaces and where young people go to meet up and pair off - which I think would be a good thing for everyone.
And I don't know how much we'll move to full WFH. I think it will persist but I think the norm will be 2-3 days in home/office. It'll be a split type of working rather than wholly one or the other for most office companies - tech companies may move ahead on this. But in media where I am now there is a big push to have most people in the office most of the week by the end of the year because they do feel that some of the creative/serendipity stuff has gone and they do worry about training juniors coming up (this is something I also worried about in a law firm). I rent a flat on my own - I can WFH fine. You'd have Zoom calls and partners were clearly loving it - sat in their gardens in St Albans etc. But for trainees and paralegals they were normally flatsharing and stuck in their bedroom or having to negotiate when they could have the kitchen for a call with their flatmate who also needed it. The upside of WFH is not equally distributed.
And I'm not convinced it was better for work-life balance because - especially when pubs and night-life and restaurants and cinemas etc were closed - you could be nowhere else. If you leave the building it is generally difficult for someone to call you with something for work because they know you've left and it's a bit of an ask. If you're just at home and you might still be online - I think they risk their chance more. I had more sort of 8pm calls during the first lockdown than ever before - the flipside of that is I don't know if I would've been in the office at 8 anyway.
So I think it'll vary by sector but I don't think most people will be able to move from, say, London to Cornwall because 2-3 days a week they'll need to be in the office. I think it's more likely to boost the numbers living in suburbs, surrounding towns and villages in the countryside so it might reverse the last 20-30 years of inner urban centres booming.
I think this is already starting to happen in London where my understanding is demand for properties is climbing more in the outer boroughs while stalling at best in inner London.
The thing I'm unsure about is what happens with commercial real estate/all those office blocks and towers.
QuoteWhat's a bit more interesting question is what the possible effects are within the EU - but there the language barriers mean the options for living abroad within the EU without a fall in life quality is a limited option at best. Brits lose out majorly here of course - taking your decent London pay and work from some remote Spanish town e.g. would be nice. Not to mention the financial advantages if you are from Eastern Europe and could earn your British wages from there. :P
But, again, it's not going to be a major thing, of that I am quite certain.
Yes but it still raises tax issues. So I looked at this with my former employer and I was possibly going digital nomad-y (and I have an EU passport) and the issue they had was the tax implications for them. The only way it would be possible would be if I was a contractor then I'm just billing a UK company and the tax complications/where I'm resident etc is on me. This applies within the EU - there are special rules for posted workers and border workers but in general most countries just tax you if you're resident for 183+ days. I don't know how that works in this future - also in European law an "establishment" is a really low bar.
A single employee can make a company established in x jurisdiction within the EU so it raises tax and regulatory implications even if it's a European company operating within the EU. At this stage I think it only really works for contractors/free-lancers and they probably need to pay for tax advice. It'd be easier within the EU but tax and company law aren't harmonised so there'd be big risks for companies just letting employees move where they want.
Quote from: Sheilbh on September 07, 2021, 07:17:50 AMThe thing I'm unsure about is what happens with commercial real estate/all those office blocks and towers.
I mentioned that many times when discussing a post-covid business world with my mates, I for sure wouldn't want to work in the office rental business, as that's bound to crash hard. I think in many places they're already converting some office spaces to residential.
QuoteQuoteWhat's a bit more interesting question is what the possible effects are within the EU - but there the language barriers mean the options for living abroad within the EU without a fall in life quality is a limited option at best. Brits lose out majorly here of course - taking your decent London pay and work from some remote Spanish town e.g. would be nice. Not to mention the financial advantages if you are from Eastern Europe and could earn your British wages from there. :P
But, again, it's not going to be a major thing, of that I am quite certain.
Yes but it still raises tax issues. So I looked at this with my former employer and I was possibly going digital nomad-y (and I have an EU passport) and the issue they had was the tax implications for them. The only way it would be possible would be if I was a contractor then I'm just billing a UK company and the tax complications/where I'm resident etc is on me. This applies within the EU - there are special rules for posted workers and border workers but in general most countries just tax you if you're resident for 183+ days. I don't know how that works in this future - also in European law an "establishment" is a really low bar.
A single employee can make a company established in x jurisdiction within the EU so it raises tax and regulatory implications even if it's a European company operating within the EU. At this stage I think it only really works for contractors/free-lancers and they probably need to pay for tax advice. It'd be easier within the EU but tax and company law aren't harmonised so there'd be big risks for companies just letting employees move where they want.
Yup, the taxes issue is very real. I have a couple of friends from my hometown who used to work in Dublin, and when Covid hit they came back here to spend lockdown closer to family, as both could work remotely. While they always assumed that they'd eventually go back to Dublin, the truth is that they've already been here for longer than a year, and the company that employs one of them started to get cold feet about the situation tax-wise and social security-wise, and ended up formally transferring my friend to their Spanish branch (they're an international engineering firm), in a bit of a bespoke arrangement, as she continues to work in practice for the Irish branch of the company in their projects there, and receiving the same salary AFAIK.
QuoteAnd I'm not convinced it was better for work-life balance because - especially when pubs and night-life and restaurants and cinemas etc were closed - you could be nowhere else.
I cut this out because I really hope discussion on WFH can finally move away from discussion of lockdown. I have seen this happen a lot over the last 1.5 years - people looking at their life during lockdown and concluding WFH sucks.
Quote from: Tamas on September 07, 2021, 07:31:41 AM
QuoteAnd I'm not convinced it was better for work-life balance because - especially when pubs and night-life and restaurants and cinemas etc were closed - you could be nowhere else.
I cut this out because I really hope discussion on WFH can finally move away from discussion of lockdown. I have seen this happen a lot over the last 1.5 years - people looking at their life during lockdown and concluding WFH sucks.
For sure - but I do think any move to widespread WFH needs accompanying thought around sort of digital labour rights I suppose.
I don't know the answer - but one of the big fights of the early 20th century labour movement was around working hours. I think that may need to look different when we're WFH with multiple devices from which we can work. I think we need to look at things like the right to unplug, to marking fixed working hours/available hours/unavailable hours to reflect the fact that it is more difficult to argue we are unavailable/unable to work when we are sat at home (our normal place of work) with the tools to do our work (laptop and phone).
As I say I'm not fully sure what that looks like in total but I don't think it's as simple as WFH = better work/life balance.
Spain recently passed a remote working law, which regulates that kind of stuff, such as the right to be unavailable for the company after the end of the work day, and also allows companies to watch over employees in order to monitor their work and obligations. AFAIK it also forbids companies from changing the salary of remote workers, either up or down, and makes companies responsible for providing the employees with the means to work remotely, including having them pay for electricity or internet for their employees, as well as having them provide the computers.
QuoteExcept that I think many talented young people don't just move to urban centres for a career. That's part of it but a large part of it is being around and with other talented young people, being exposed to lots of cultural options etc. I think that side of urban life is likely to continue and be more attractive - and maybe if all the people who are only here for their career are able to move out it'll mean city's will become affordable again for more creative areas to be cultural spaces and where young people go to meet up and pair off - which I think would be a good thing for everyone.
Your gay is showing :p
I'm not sure this is so much the case in the UK. London is just so expensive and unpleasant if you're not rich that I don't think so many willingly go there given the choice as they did historically. At least assuming self-awareness which a lot of kids don't have.
Thinking of Berlin, London in the 80s, etc... however yes I know what you mean. And yeah. Good potential gains in London reclaiming its old place of buzzing alternative culture spot if those who are miserably forced to be there can now go home.
Quote from: The Larch on September 07, 2021, 07:09:49 AM
An issue regarding WFH is that I don't think it suits every kind of role. It might be workable with people with some experience and in a mid level or senior position, but for people starting out in their careers or with little or no work experience in the particular area in which they're working I don't think it's workable.
Yes, this is a problem.
Whilst I mentioned WFH potentially meaning big wins for equality in allowing people anywhere to get good professional level jobs, I've also heard it mooted that its a disaster for equality as it does really empower those with existing networks.
Another problem I hear mentioned a lot is what it means for all those minimum wage workers in business district sandwich shops et al- though I think these losses should be countered by new jobs being created in small towns that people otherwise fled for the city.
There really is a great opportunity for shared work spaces, cafes, etc... in some small towns.
But...then you've the problem of network effects being eliminated when you've 20 small towns with a pub each rather than a thriving pub area of a major city.
Then there's a bit of a problem with the whole remote working vs. in office thing.
For some people being remote works brilliantly. For others its a disaster and they want to be in the office.
Where before it was the extroverts who shined now the introverts can shine a lot more, which you will argue is good or bad depending on which side of that you fall on.
The problem with this is though... the positives of everyone being in the office don't really work so well when everyone isn't in the office. I've had experience in the past of being amongst the team in the office working with some remote people and...it has a huge number of draw backs that can be much better accounted for when everyone is remote.
For instance having one guy dialling in to a in-person workshop is just horrid.
Quote from: Tamas on September 07, 2021, 07:31:41 AM
QuoteAnd I'm not convinced it was better for work-life balance because - especially when pubs and night-life and restaurants and cinemas etc were closed - you could be nowhere else.
I cut this out because I really hope discussion on WFH can finally move away from discussion of lockdown. I have seen this happen a lot over the last 1.5 years - people looking at their life during lockdown and concluding WFH sucks.
My work life balance was way better. I didn't do the strange thing of feeling like I had to do and thus worked all the time. Still logged off at reasonable hours and rather than committing, had time to cook and eat dinner at a reasonable hour. In the morning could get up in a relaxing fashion as wasn't running to make the train. And also when had down time at work, didn't need to pretend to work or look at news but could get things done around the flat.
Quote from: Tyr on September 07, 2021, 08:18:00 AM
Your gay is showing :p
Fair :lol:
But even the straights often spend a few years in the city to have fun/meet a partner before settling down elsewhere. It's just easier to meet people because there's more people.
QuoteI'm not sure this is so much the case in the UK. London is just so expensive and unpleasant if you're not rich that I don't think so many willingly go there given the choice as they did historically. At least assuming self-awareness which a lot of kids don't have.
Thinking of Berlin, London in the 80s, etc... however yes I know what you mean. And yeah. Good potential gains in London reclaiming its old place of buzzing alternative culture spot if those who are miserably forced to be there can now go home.
So the counter-point to this is that if there are also global digital nomads free-lancing in sort of corporate "creative" professions like graphic design, PR, marketing etc they may actually drive up prices. I know there's been a bit of resentment in Germany of the Shoreditch-Berlin track. But I heard people saying that Berlin is too corporate and expensive now, so the next Berlin is Kyiv or Tbilisi depending on who you listen to (and they're both great cities). So it may be both trends at once but faster (this would be my summary of post-covid economics generally :P).
QuoteYes, this is a problem.
Whilst I mentioned WFH potentially meaning big wins for equality in allowing people anywhere to get good professional level jobs, I've also heard it mooted that its a disaster for equality as it does really empower those with existing networks.
Another problem I hear mentioned a lot is what it means for all those minimum wage workers in business district sandwich shops et al- though I think these losses should be countered by new jobs being created in small towns that people otherwise fled for the city.
There really is a great opportunity for shared work spaces, cafes, etc... in some small towns.
But...then you've the problem of network effects being eliminated when you've 20 small towns with a pub each rather than a thriving pub area of a major city.
Yeah so one of the advantages in theory of being in a city is that all of these connected/semi-related industries rub up against each other (and often there's a research university, or a political centre, or a cultural centre which adds extra). I don't know if we're yet at the stage where the digital networks have replaced that and is able to make those connection. It's possible it has but I don't know. And I wonder if there will be a sort of opportunity loss from those connections v an organised/scheduled remote call.
Quote from: garbon on September 07, 2021, 08:44:42 AM
Quote from: Tamas on September 07, 2021, 07:31:41 AM
QuoteAnd I'm not convinced it was better for work-life balance because - especially when pubs and night-life and restaurants and cinemas etc were closed - you could be nowhere else.
I cut this out because I really hope discussion on WFH can finally move away from discussion of lockdown. I have seen this happen a lot over the last 1.5 years - people looking at their life during lockdown and concluding WFH sucks.
My work life balance was way better. I didn't do the strange thing of feeling like I had to do and thus worked all the time. Still logged off at reasonable hours and rather than committing, had time to cook and eat dinner at a reasonable hour. In the morning could get up in a relaxing fashion as wasn't running to make the train. And also when had down time at work, didn't need to pretend to work or look at news but could get things done around the flat.
:yes: I loathe going into the office for all these reasons and more. Being able to work from home gives me at least an hour a day back to me.
I think it is going to be important for young people to go to urban centres for the foreseeable future. Both to get their career going and because of all the fun things you can do in an urban area. I don't think that will change until head offices start migrating away from urban centres, and I don't really see that happening soon, if ever. Getting face time so they are not just a name is critically important for them. There may be some niche areas where that is not true - the example given above of minding a server where even if you were in the office no one would see you. But for most pursuits getting to be known is vital for further advancement. And there is a lot to do in a city.
Quote from: Tyr on September 07, 2021, 08:18:00 AM
.....
I'm not sure this is so much the case in the UK. London is just so expensive and unpleasant if you're not rich that I don't think so many willingly go there given the choice as they did historically. At least assuming self-awareness which a lot of kids don't have.
Thinking of Berlin, London in the 80s, etc... however yes I know what you mean. And yeah. Good potential gains in London reclaiming its old place of buzzing alternative culture spot if those who are miserably forced to be there can now go home.
.....
Well nearly everyone of my friends* have after graduating at some stage in their 20s/30s/early 40s lived and worked in London. It's almost a rite of passage here, around 90-120 miles from the city.
Plus plenty of other non-professional people whom I've worked with have also done that gig. I'd be surprised if that pattern has radically changed or stopped.
edit:* I can think of just one guy, and arguable it would have done him a lot of good.
https://www.politico.eu/article/belgium-four-day-week-labor-market/
:mmm: :w00t:
A few video game companies seem to be moving towards 4-day weeks as well.
Quote from: Jacob on October 08, 2021, 02:21:16 PM
A few video game companies seem to be moving towards 4-day weeks as well.
So crunch is just 5 15-hour days instead of 6 12-hour days?
Quote from: Habbaku on October 08, 2021, 02:22:53 PM
Quote from: Jacob on October 08, 2021, 02:21:16 PM
A few video game companies seem to be moving towards 4-day weeks as well.
So crunch is just 5 15-hour days instead of 6 12-hour days?
I don't know, to be honest. I expect it'll be 4 days until crunch and then... who knows....
Quote from: Habbaku on September 07, 2021, 10:00:47 AM
Quote from: garbon on September 07, 2021, 08:44:42 AM
Quote from: Tamas on September 07, 2021, 07:31:41 AM
QuoteAnd I'm not convinced it was better for work-life balance because - especially when pubs and night-life and restaurants and cinemas etc were closed - you could be nowhere else.
I cut this out because I really hope discussion on WFH can finally move away from discussion of lockdown. I have seen this happen a lot over the last 1.5 years - people looking at their life during lockdown and concluding WFH sucks.
My work life balance was way better. I didn't do the strange thing of feeling like I had to do and thus worked all the time. Still logged off at reasonable hours and rather than committing, had time to cook and eat dinner at a reasonable hour. In the morning could get up in a relaxing fashion as wasn't running to make the train. And also when had down time at work, didn't need to pretend to work or look at news but could get things done around the flat.
:yes: I loathe going into the office for all these reasons and more. Being able to work from home gives me at least an hour a day back to me.
I missed these comments last month, but agree 100%, garbon's experience was the same as mine. WFH has been a major change for the better for me.
Moved to going into the office 2 days a week now - and I like it :ph34r:
We started going back 3 days a week now. A colleague suspects, and I agree, that we'll be working in the office all 5 days next year. I'm starting to look for full time WFH jobs because I hate the commute.
Current plan is to go back to the office 3 days a week starting January (unless the Covid situation is too bad). Until then people go to the office as they see fit (most people only go in case of meetings). Since I work a 4 day week, I will likely go to the office all days.
We have one person in the office who's not vaccinated (well, two, but the second one will keep working from home for the time being due to other health concerns) and who keeps making excuses (the cousin of my friend's mother ... ), so we will see what our rules will be to protect this person. Currently we have the rule that you need to have done a valid Covid test before coming in, but since they're only good for one or two days .... don't really want to get tested twice a week for the privilege of going to the office. :D
Working at home often becomes living at work. It can easily become a bad relationship. I think the merits are overstated and much prefer a better seperation between work and play
That said, my commute was a lot easier when the ROTW was sitting on their chesterfields, looking at screens. When there is no traffic it's almost fun.
A lot of downtown service industries took a hit and will never reopen. But other businesses may replace them: I know of a least one Starbucks that was shuttered and replaced by a Spiritleaf. :punk:
One other aspect of post-covid economics is going to be at schools - there is data in England that absence rates at secondary schools is now running at an average of about 15% (up from 5% pre-pandemic). About half of the difference can, apparently, be explained by covid (positive tests, self-isolating etc). But it seems that since lockdowns there is now a chunk of kids that are perpetually absent from school which I think is a problem (and I wouldn't be surprised if those absences reinforce existing inequalities).
I'm not sure if this has been observed anywhere else in the world. But it feels like part of post-covid economics is going to be a huge amount of spending and work to try and make sure this generation of kids don't permanently lose out - I think a lot about that Dutch study in the summer of 2020 that showed how wildly differently home schooling was working for families with money and families without.
I've heard from teachers that there are a significant chunk of kids who have had a bit of an awakening since lock down. For the worse.
Previously arse holes but ones who trudged along broadly following the rules they're now in open revolt just doing what they want, walking out of the class on a whim or hanging around outside the school when they should have a class.
It really seems to have massively boosted fatalistic views of many.
Quote from: Tyr on September 07, 2021, 05:16:45 AM
Will the major cities with top salaries see a stuttering and potential reversal in what they pay?
Will salaries have to do more to equalise nationally- to an extent even globally?
Will Google's lead be the one to follow with companies paying according to your address (cue: an upsurge in people buying Geneva post boxes)?
Is this a sledge hammer to the head of already struggling city centres, massively disrupting their attempts to transition away from shopping?- or will it prove a lifeline to smaller town centres allowing them to lead the way in doing this?
Will covid see a black death level of economic reshaping? Or will everything be swiftly rolled back to how it was before?
So many questions, so many thoughts to be had.
I don't think Google is the first to do that since the beginning of the pandemic.
I see it as an indirect way to get people into the office. Companies are left with huge, empty pieces of real estate. They can't reallt shrink their office size, big tech companies like Google or Microsoft have campus-sized offices. Even if they can reduce the space they use, it wouldn't be practical for another company to rent a building right next to Google.
As an aside, it's also the same age-old process of delocalization, as you said, if an engineer in India can do the work for less, why pay more?
However, I think that for some jobs, remote work has its limits. I don't see a return to pre-pandemic levels, but I imagine a more hybrid work, with people can afford it work 2-3 days per week in the city and the rest from their cottage/countryside house. Assuming they have decent connections*
Salary wise, it will be tricky to maintain a sizable pool of talents and keep cutting wages. Eventually, some other competitors are going to raise their wages, independant of employee's locations to attract talent. I see this as a temporary move, just because they can.
*Small anecdote: Canada's biggest telecom company is Bell Canada Enterprises (BCE). BCE's Ceo has a cottage in a remote area of the province. After he moved there, that part of the area, far away from city centers, was wired with fiber optics and got all the latest services offered by the company :D
Quote from: HisMajestyBOB on October 09, 2021, 12:11:07 AM
We started going back 3 days a week now. A colleague suspects, and I agree, that we'll be working in the office all 5 days next year. I'm starting to look for full time WFH jobs because I hate the commute.
Yeah, why put up with it if you have options?
Quote from: Jacob on October 09, 2021, 02:58:46 PM
Quote from: HisMajestyBOB on October 09, 2021, 12:11:07 AM
We started going back 3 days a week now. A colleague suspects, and I agree, that we'll be working in the office all 5 days next year. I'm starting to look for full time WFH jobs because I hate the commute.
Yeah, why put up with it if you have options?
Strangely enough, some people, even on the not very social scale, tend to favour working outside the home.
Quote from: Jacob on October 09, 2021, 02:58:46 PM
Quote from: HisMajestyBOB on October 09, 2021, 12:11:07 AM
We started going back 3 days a week now. A colleague suspects, and I agree, that we'll be working in the office all 5 days next year. I'm starting to look for full time WFH jobs because I hate the commute.
Yeah, why put up with it if you have options?
Yeah - I know of some people who've turned down jobs because they didn't have enough WFH arrangements.
Quote from: viper37 on October 09, 2021, 04:33:22 PM
Strangely enough, some people, even on the not very social scale, tend to favour working outside the home.
Yes, but in this specific case it's clear that HisMajestyBOB does not. What some other people may or may not favour doesn't really matter to whether he is going to put up with being forced into the office when he'd rather not.
I prefer to separate work life and home life. During the pandemic i sat in my garage and now I've removed all the office stuff from there.
The 1.5 h commute a day is not very fun though, and I'm looking into setting up some kind of permanent office at home.
Quote from: Threviel on October 10, 2021, 12:22:11 AM
I prefer to separate work life and home life. During the pandemic i sat in my garage and now I've removed all the office stuff from there.
The 1.5 h commute a day is not very fun though, and I'm looking into setting up some kind of permanent office at home.
Same. The trouble is its hard to justify having an office and a man cave in our small house. Two sets of monitors et al. Thus my office is the place where all my hobbies are... If I ever get around to doing them.
It's not ideal.
Well, British papers seem to have opinions on the matter.
(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FBU-qUOXoAE1P1i?format=jpg&name=small)
(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FBU-JBzXsAIp0B4?format=jpg&name=900x900)
:lol: you can tell some people are REALLY worried about their commercial properties portfolio
Quote from: Syt on October 10, 2021, 04:49:37 AM
Well, British papers seem to have opinions on the matter.
(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FBU-qUOXoAE1P1i?format=jpg&name=small)
I mean this is unarguable - the Prime Minister and Foreign Secretary were working from their holidays and I think that did have an impact <_<
This is one of those things where there's a massive age divide and basically people who are working age and have actually experienced WFH don't mind - people who are retired and nevere did it, do:
(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FBGwjy8VUAMtEU1?format=jpg&name=small)
Of course the truth is that private businesses are doing what's best for them. Obviously govenment does have a say over the civil service (and Oliver Dowden complained that people needed to "get off their Pelotons" and back to work; worth nothing that the head civil servant in his department had done a tech conference where she spoke about how great WFH was and that if she had any spare minute during the day it allowed her to hop on her Peloton :lol:) - but the issue there is I think civil servants have been run ragged while WFH. There may be occasions when they can't - I imagine during a crisis they'd need to come in (as would ministers) - but, ultimately, the civil service is less well-paid than equivalent private sector jobs. Part of the appeal is you're doing interesting important work, but another big part is that the benefits and work environment are really good. If they start slipping behind on that then there's really not much reason to go into the civil service apart from the interest/service angle.
Edit: Having said that I think it's striking that young people just starting out are far less concerned about the government telling workers to get back into the office which may reflect what we've discussed before about juniors feeling they're not getting the benefits of working both practically in learning on the job, informal conversations etc - but also more broadly social events with the rest of their cohort/other juniors in different businesses etc.
I'm a bit agnostic on WFH - but I'm not really sure it's any of government's business what private employers are doing.
Quote from: Threviel on October 10, 2021, 12:22:11 AM
I prefer to separate work life and home life. During the pandemic i sat in my garage and now I've removed all the office stuff from there.
The 1.5 h commute a day is not very fun though, and I'm looking into setting up some kind of permanent office at home.
Similar experience here. I only worked from home for a couple weeks during lockdown last year. It was pretty unenjoyable.
My flat was tiny and had no dedicated space. Also, most of my age cohort have small kids now, so work has a significant social impact on my life. Without that I would need some alternative (co-working space).
My main problem with going to the office is the going part as well. Before the pandemic hit I bought a place that cuts my daily commute to half an hour (and is by the main ring motorway in case the plant closes/I get laid off).
One of my friends has been WFH from the start and loves it, though. He's a project manager, so he doesn't really need to be at the factory at all. Despite that his boss has been badgering him for over a year to come back. Usually he's the odd one out, connecting via Teams to local meetings (unless I'm involved, since I do the same from my office).
Because I have so much equipment, I couldn't use my dedicated office for my work space so I had to create a newdedicated one from what was once my home gym. While I do miss the home gym, it probably save my mental health to not play where I work.
Now the original office is my GF workplace too.
Quote from: viper37 on October 09, 2021, 04:33:22 PM
Quote from: Jacob on October 09, 2021, 02:58:46 PM
Quote from: HisMajestyBOB on October 09, 2021, 12:11:07 AM
We started going back 3 days a week now. A colleague suspects, and I agree, that we'll be working in the office all 5 days next year. I'm starting to look for full time WFH jobs because I hate the commute.
Yeah, why put up with it if you have options?
Strangely enough, some people, even on the not very social scale, tend to favour working outside the home.
Quote from: Jacob on October 09, 2021, 06:35:59 PM
Yes, but in this specific case it's clear that HisMajestyBOB does not. What some other people may or may not favour doesn't really matter to whether he is going to put up with being forced into the office when he'd rather not.
Yeah, I don't mind WFH so much. It's a 1 hour commute one-way, longer if I have to take the bus from my house. Working in the office also makes it difficult to drop off and pick up my son from preschool, which is something I really enjoy.
I find I don't mind the blurred boundaries between work and home life. Because of my job, I already check my email occasionally over the weekend and every once in a while put in evening or weekend hours. On the flip side, my job makes it easy for me to take a short break during the day at home to do laundry or other chores, or watch the kids play, as long as I get the work done and get my weekly hours in.
I have a small townhouse, so I can't have a separate home office. The basement is the combination storage / home office / back door / "man cave" with all my computer crap. So if I get sick of spending so much time down there, I'll go upstairs to read or use computer after work and after the kids are in bed.
As far as work relationships during WFH have a few good friends among my colleagues that I still communicate socially Now they're all in different cities so even when I go back to the office, they're remote. WFH has been harder on the junior staff and developing relationships with them, but there's also an increasing age gap between them and me, so I'm less and less of a equal coworker and more of a senior advisor.
I'm going to my office for the first time tomorrow. Almost managed a full year of a new job without seeing the office.
Are you going to the British or the American?
You didn't keep an office in New York? :huh:
I'm lost. -_-
I've only seen the British one anyway.
I manage about a dozen developers.
We are never going back to the office, and I don't even make the attempt to hire locally anymore.
And that includes new hires straight out of college.
I see that as an opportunity. I don't want to work in the big cities because of the commute and so my pay suffers. When everything settles after Covid I see myself getting a job in the big cities and working from home, hopefully with a much higher wage.
I'm an embedded developer though, so I need quite an advanced and big workplace at home, not just a desk and a display. Lots of measurement equipment and lots of different hardware so it'll be interesting to see how everything develops for us hardware near developers with working from home.
Quote from: garbon on October 11, 2021, 09:45:22 AM
I'm lost. -_-
:( Maybe WFH is more suited for you. Have you tried asking for directions?
Quote from: Berkut on October 11, 2021, 09:19:27 PM
I manage about a dozen developers.
We are never going back to the office, and I don't even make the attempt to hire locally anymore.
And that includes new hires straight out of college.
I still know of a good accountant/financial analyst willing to work remotely...
:P
Do you still find enough talent in the US, or do you need to recruit from foreign countries too?
Quote from: viper37 on October 12, 2021, 05:40:47 PM
Quote from: Berkut on October 11, 2021, 09:19:27 PM
I manage about a dozen developers.
We are never going back to the office, and I don't even make the attempt to hire locally anymore.
And that includes new hires straight out of college.
I still know of a good accountant/financial analyst willing to work remotely...
:P
Do you still find enough talent in the US, or do you need to recruit from foreign countries too?
No, we pretty much stick to the US. I don't even want to contemplate the hassle of trying to figure out international labor laws....
Quote from: Berkut on October 12, 2021, 10:54:19 PM
Quote from: viper37 on October 12, 2021, 05:40:47 PM
Quote from: Berkut on October 11, 2021, 09:19:27 PM
I manage about a dozen developers.
We are never going back to the office, and I don't even make the attempt to hire locally anymore.
And that includes new hires straight out of college.
I still know of a good accountant/financial analyst willing to work remotely...
:P
Do you still find enough talent in the US, or do you need to recruit from foreign countries too?
No, we pretty much stick to the US. I don't even want to contemplate the hassle of trying to figure out international labor laws....
Wise move, the number of employers who are shocked to learn they need to comply with the laws in which their remote working employee resides is fairly high.
Having to comply with laws? What happened to liberty?
Quote from: Valmy on October 13, 2021, 11:27:31 AM
Having to comply with laws? What happened to liberty?
That is more or less what some American clients say when they get the bad news.
Quote from: crazy canuck on October 13, 2021, 11:28:17 AM
Quote from: Valmy on October 13, 2021, 11:27:31 AM
Having to comply with laws? What happened to liberty?
That is more or less what some American clients say when they get the bad news.
My favourite from a European perspective was informing them that privacy law and rights apply to employees in Europe, not just consumers :lol:
Quote from: Sheilbh on October 13, 2021, 12:04:02 PM
Quote from: crazy canuck on October 13, 2021, 11:28:17 AM
Quote from: Valmy on October 13, 2021, 11:27:31 AM
Having to comply with laws? What happened to liberty?
That is more or less what some American clients say when they get the bad news.
My favourite from a European perspective was informing them that privacy law and rights apply to employees in Europe, not just consumers :lol:
Yeah, good for business :D
Unexpected bit of post-covid economics (I used bookshop.org and strongly recommend) but is this first straw of the potential from covid - that collapsing rents would destroy the identikit chain stores and allow a flourishing of local small businesses. Bookstores here but also suburban cafes replacing Prets for WFHers, plant shops etc (two have opened near me, I assume, to support my apparently insatiable demand for houseplants) etc :hmm:
QuoteAs the Economy Tanked, Brits Opened Bookstores
Cheaper rent is helping local shops, which are banding together to fight Amazon.
12 October 2021, 05:01 BST
(https://assets.bwbx.io/images/users/iqjWHBFdfxIU/inKTIcVoHxBE/v1/1000x-1.jpg)
Rachel Thomas at Parade's End. PHOTOGRAPHER: ROMILLY LOCKYER FOR BLOOMBERG BUSINESSWEEK
Rachel Thomas had long dreamed of owning a bookshop, perhaps once she retired from her job as a project manager. She might then have the time and money to open a storefront brimming with the latest titles from authors she loves, and to share them with local readers. She never expected that the right moment would come during a global pandemic in which shoppers barely dared to venture beyond the kitchen or couch.
But since Thomas opened Parade's End in southwest London last November, she has discovered the benefits: grateful customers and a good deal on her lease. "I wasn't sure I'd make any money in the first year; I thought I'd be operating at a loss," Thomas says. "Despite Covid, I broke even, and that's definitely thanks to the local people."
Contrary to all expectations, the past two years have seen a slew of bookstore openings in the U.K. and Ireland. Even with the disruptions of lockdowns and ongoing pressure from Amazon.com Inc., mass retailers, and e-books, 77 independent shops joined the Booksellers Association trade group last year, and 35 more did so in the first eight months of 2021. Today, Britain has more independent bookstores than it has since 2013, according to the BA.
Although the Covid-19 pandemic put millions Britons out of work, growing numbers of entrepreneurs were willing to bet that they could still find enough people to step inside a nearby store and pay a bit extra to get the book they want. "When everything shut down, we were still keen to go ahead, because we thought it'd all be over in a couple of months," says Laura Iveson, who cofounded Darling Reads in West Yorkshire in 2020. "The pandemic has made people realize that if they don't support their local shops, the shops won't survive."
One key to surviving the past year's restrictions on retailers has been a web presence for what has traditionally been a hyperlocal business. Sarah Frame was dismayed when Scotland went into lockdown in December, just eight days after she opened the Book Nook in Stewarton, near Glasgow. Wary of the cost of building a website and managing the stock to supply it, she turned to Bookshop.org, a company that aims to help independent stores fight back against the likes of Amazon. "When I had no money coming into the bookshop, I really couldn't justify the cost of investing and creating a fully online offering," Frame says.
(https://assets.bwbx.io/images/users/iqjWHBFdfxIU/iqqXAS35AtOw/v2/1000x-1.jpg)
FrameSOURCE: COURTESY OF SARAH FRAME
The site, which started in early 2020, is certified as a "B Corporation," a designation that indicates a strong commitment to social sustainability. Shop owners can have their own storefronts on the site, where they create lists of recommendations, much as they might feature books on tables in a physical shop. Bookshop.org takes care of the warehousing, shipping, and payments, and a store gets a 30% cut of sales made through its page. Ten percent of the cover price from any sales that aren't linked to a particular store get put into a pot and distributed to member shops: more than £1.6 million ($2.2 million) in Britain, where 480 stores have signed up to the site, and $16 million to the site's 1,209 U.S. outlets. "We are hoping to be as convenient as Amazon," says Nicole Vanderbilt, U.K. managing director for Bookshop.org. "But we are offering something fundamentally different in the form of knowing that you're supporting independent bookshops."
As vaccinations progress and the economy reopens, Bookshop.org heralds what could be a new phase for independent book retailing, giving even the tiniest shops a path to compete online with the almost limitless range of titles available on Amazon. And the U.K. Booksellers Association is working with the site to encourage diversity in bookshop ownership via a program that provides mentorship and support to people from underrepresented communities who want to open stores.
"Every time we've had a reopening from the pandemic, we've seen a commitment of bookshop customers to shop locally," says Meryl Halls, the association's managing director. "What we really want to see is bookshops appearing in places where there are no bookshops now. We want it to feel like an industry that's open to everyone."
It is very pro-global warming to buy paper books instead of digital :P
I like book shops and all. Trouble is the ones I like don't really exist anymore. Second hand book shops where massive bargains can be found. It used to be a highlight of holidays to trawl the bookshops for £1 1973 editions of pulp Sci fi classics I hadn't read yet.
Quote from: Tyr on October 14, 2021, 04:43:11 AM
I like book shops and all. Trouble is the ones I like don't really exist anymore. Second hand book shops where massive bargains can be found. It used to be a highlight of holidays to trawl the bookshops for £1 1973 editions of pulp Sci fi classics I hadn't read yet.
That and the discount for buying used isn't that great. Its often 50-75% of the cover price, and since the newer books are expensive, there isn't much reason to get a beat up older one.
Quote from: crazy canuck on October 13, 2021, 11:26:44 AM
Wise move, the number of employers who are shocked to learn they need to comply with the laws in which their remote working employee resides is fairly high.
So, if Microsoft employs someone working remotely from Quebec attached to their head office in Washington State, on the 24th of June and 1st of July, he will get the day off, but he will work alone on the 4th of July?
Interesting to know. :)
Quote from: Tamas on October 14, 2021, 04:31:03 AM
It is very pro-global warming to buy paper books instead of digital :P
Data center contribute a lot to global warming. We should stop reading instead, better for the environment. There were no such thing as global warming before writing was invented :P
At my company, we return to the office on Monday.
One of my full-time consultants is absolutely refusing to return in-person (he's based in Chicago), and I was thinking I was going to have to fire him, but I found out this afternoon we would make an exception for him, so that's good at least.
Quote from: Tyr on October 14, 2021, 04:43:11 AM
I like book shops and all. Trouble is the ones I like don't really exist anymore. Second hand book shops where massive bargains can be found. It used to be a highlight of holidays to trawl the bookshops for £1 1973 editions of pulp Sci fi classics I hadn't read yet.
I need a second hand book shop that sells me the time to read a book, rather than another book to add to the endlessly growing reading list. :(
Quote from: HisMajestyBOB on October 16, 2021, 08:42:57 AM
Quote from: Tyr on October 14, 2021, 04:43:11 AM
I like book shops and all. Trouble is the ones I like don't really exist anymore. Second hand book shops where massive bargains can be found. It used to be a highlight of holidays to trawl the bookshops for £1 1973 editions of pulp Sci fi classics I hadn't read yet.
I need a second hand book shop that sells me the time to read a book, rather than another book to add to the endlessly growing reading list. :(
You want to borrow a feeling too?
This is an old article which is all over the place.
But thought it interesting it talks of many of the things I said eons ago were where smart money would go actually coming to pass. Particularly interesting to read about the near work phenomena. Will have to check up more on that.
https://www.ft.com/content/7db6dbe2-5ac5-4e08-9ec5-f72f0bc1f5aa
Also ever more convinced the whole thing is a practical joke the gods are pulling on me. Giving this perfect work world now when I am not flexible on location rather than 6 years ago when I could have really used it.
Interesting stat I'd not seen before - record high of almost 1 million people resigning/quitting to new jobs over the summer in the UK, that stat includes dismissals/firings but is apparently overwhelmingly driven by people actively quitting :hmm:
(I changed job in the survey period so....it follows...)
My buddy who has been WFH (and loving it) since the pandemic hit is going to get himself fired, I think.
He' a project manager so he spends his day in conf-calls with people all over Europe. No real necessity to come to the office to do that. But other managers are whispering in the General Manager's ear that he's getting "out of touch" with the factory (as if they actually came out of their offices and meeting rooms), not capable/willing to do his job, etc.
Surely if you're in meetings every day that's the perfect defence about not doing anything?
It's the meetingless days I worry.
Quote from: The Brain on October 16, 2021, 11:24:51 AM
Quote from: HisMajestyBOB on October 16, 2021, 08:42:57 AM
Quote from: Tyr on October 14, 2021, 04:43:11 AM
I like book shops and all. Trouble is the ones I like don't really exist anymore. Second hand book shops where massive bargains can be found. It used to be a highlight of holidays to trawl the bookshops for £1 1973 editions of pulp Sci fi classics I hadn't read yet.
I need a second hand book shop that sells me the time to read a book, rather than another book to add to the endlessly growing reading list. :(
You want to borrow a feeling too?
Yes, do you have any to spare?