Now that was a long title.
QuoteEU faces crisis as Hungary says it will veto seven-year budget
Viktor Orbán rejects package over attempts to link funding to respect for rule of law
The EU is facing a crisis after Hungary and Poland vetoed the bloc's historic €1.8tn (£1.6tn) budget and coronavirus recovery plan over attempts to link funding to respect for democratic norms.
The move unravels months of negotiations over the scale and terms of the EU's spending and sets the stage for a stormy videoconference meeting of the bloc's leaders on Thursday.
Without agreement among the 27 member states, projects financed by the bloc's seven-year budget will go without funds and the €750bn plan to rebuild Europe's shattered economy will not be activated.
"I think we have a crisis again," a senior EU diplomat said. "We're back in crisis."
Hungary and Poland had announced their intentions shortly before ambassadors of the EU's member states met on Monday to vote on various parts of the financial settlement.
The capitals' representatives had been due to sign off on the total financial package, requiring unanimity, and on the details of a mechanism to link the provision of funds with continued respect for the rule of law, requiring the support of a qualified majority of member states. They were also due to agree by consensus on a roadmap for new EU taxes to fund an increase in spending.
With Hungary only able to count on Poland to vote against the rule-of-law mechanism, the two countries had to be creative in order to block progress. Representatives for the two member states refused to support the plan to create new EU taxes, with the result that the whole package was torpedoed.
"Hungary has vetoed the budget," said Zoltán Kovács, a spokesman for the country's rightwing prime minister, Viktor Orbán. "We cannot support the plan in its present form to tie rule-of-law criteria to budget decisions."
In a previous warning to fellow governments, Orbán, whose government has been accused of becoming increasingly authoritarian in style and substance, had written that he could not agree to a "proposed sanction mechanism ... based on legally vague definitions such as 'violation of the rule of law'." He wrote: "Such difficult to define concepts create opportunities for political abuses and violate the requirement of legal certainty."
The 27 EU heads of state and government had signed off on the broad spending package and the inclusion of a link to respect for the rule of law in July, after days of hard debate.
The details of the deal were then subject to further negotiations between the member states, represented by the German presidency of the EU, and the European parliament. Those talks resulted in the spending total increasing by about €15bn to be funded by new EU taxes.
There was also provisional agreement between the two sides on procedures to block funds from rogue EU governments found to be putting the rule of law or the independence of judges at risk.
The mechanism would allow a qualified majority of member states to impose sanctions where governments fail to maintain democratic standards.
Its inclusion followed the ill-fated launch of procedures under article 7 of the EU treaties against Poland in 2017 and Hungary in 2018 over alleged attempts by the governments to undermine the independence of their judges.
The article 7 procedure requires unanimity among the member states before sanctions, such as the removal of voting rights in Brussels, can be imposed. Both Poland and Hungary had said they would protect each other from such measures, leaving it ineffective.
Under the new mechanism, there would be greater accountability over EU payments through removal of that veto.
A senior diplomat said the European commission and the German presidency of the EU would need to "take stock" before deciding on the next steps.
Rasmus Andresen, a Green MEP who was part of the European parliament's negotiation team, said: "The resistance of Orbán and the Polish government is irresponsible. Orbán is afraid that the new rule of law mechanism will harm his autocratic regime. He is trying to take Europe and Covid hostage for his failed policies.
"Hungary and Poland risk plunging the EU into a deep crisis. If the EU budget and the recovery package are blocked, the economic crisis in the EU will intensify and the Hungarian and Polish economies will suffer massively as a result.
"Chancellor [Angela] Merkel must now take the lead. False compromises are now out of place. Now it is becoming a problem that the chancellor has so far done little to interfere in the negotiations."
I have a degree of sympathy with them in relation to the coronavirus recovery money. The purpose of that money is entirely different from the rest of the EU funding - it's basically disaster relief and I think it's wrong that the Dutch tried to introduce lots of conditionality on that money.
No sympathy on the wider funding and there's a real risk that the whole rule of law package just becomes like a Stability and Growth Pact for democratic institutions.
Yeah corona money should be handled differently by the EU even if the government of Hungary will just steal most of it as usual. For the rest though, I hope they dig their heels in. I do t know about Poland but I think the Hungarian regime would be undermined if the stream of funds stop, they can't hold up the budget too long, its a bluff.
I know Poland is feeling quite vulnerable because Biden has kind of already specifically called them out. They created "LGBTQ-Free Zones" in Poland and Biden's specifically said that "LGBTQ-Free Zones" have no place in the US, in Europe or anywhere else in the world. So I think they may be feeling a little bit of pressure from both sides whereas before they had Trump.
Good. I prefer open conflict to the creeping growth of authoritarianism.
maybe the EU will now do something about the political prisoners in Spain too...
Is there a procedure to kick out a member?
Quote from: Zoupa on November 16, 2020, 03:51:10 PM
Is there a procedure to kick out a member?
No.
There's Article 7, mentioned in that piece, which allows for suspension of certain rights including voting. But there's no power to expel.
So suspend their voting rights, then vote on some rule of law stuff that they can't veto. :)
Quote from: Admiral Yi on November 16, 2020, 04:08:24 PM
So suspend their voting rights, then vote on some rule of law stuff that they can't veto. :)
Article 7 necessitates unanimity of all other members to suspend one member. Poland and Hungary protect each other - and their Visegrad buddies would likely also not support such a measure.
Who could've known that a Liberum Veto system might have shortcomings?
Quote from: DGuller on November 16, 2020, 04:32:01 PM
Who could've known that a Liberum Veto system might have shortcomings?
Indeed, with that kind of system, you'll soon get outside powers like Russia interfering in the EU via certain member states. Oh wait...
Quote from: PJL on November 16, 2020, 04:34:09 PM
Quote from: DGuller on November 16, 2020, 04:32:01 PM
Who could've known that a Liberum Veto system might have shortcomings?
Indeed, with that kind of system, you'll soon get outside powers like Russia interfering in the EU via certain member states. Oh wait...
I mean they didn't need to wait for Hungary for that. There's always issues with Austria - one of their intelligence agencies has been entirely cut off from Western intelligence sharing for the last 20 years because there are fear's it's just totally compromised.
Quote from: Crazy_Ivan80 on November 16, 2020, 02:30:43 PM
maybe the EU will now do something about the political prisoners in Spain too...
Oh? Has rule of law been restored to Poland and Hungary already? If so then maybe it is time to start another project. Good job EU 10/10.
Quote from: Zanza on November 16, 2020, 04:28:53 PM
Article 7 necessitates unanimity of all other members to suspend one member. Poland and Hungary protect each other - and their Visegrad buddies would likely also not support such a measure.
:face:
Then blackmail them with the regular budget. Give them a choice of agreeing to rule of law or the entire EU budget, including all that beautiful free money, gets cut off.
Quote from: Admiral Yi on November 16, 2020, 05:17:38 PM
:face:
Then blackmail them with the regular budget. Give them a choice of agreeing to rule of law or the entire EU budget, including all that beautiful free money, gets cut off.
Actually that's what they're doing. The EU budget is a seven year budget and the latest (also reflecting Brexit) is due for approval. Until then new projects and I think new spending aren't really possible. It's also been a fairly ambitious budget round (especially for Macron).
Poland and Hungary are vetoing the normal budget because it's being linked to rule of law conditionality.
Your other option is to hopel Piss gets taken down.
Quote from: Valmy on November 16, 2020, 05:09:52 PM
Quote from: Crazy_Ivan80 on November 16, 2020, 02:30:43 PM
maybe the EU will now do something about the political prisoners in Spain too...
Oh? Has rule of law been restored to Poland and Hungary already? If so then maybe it is time to start another project. Good job EU 10/10.
that would be the same project, not a different one.
All at once, or nobody.
Quote from: Crazy_Ivan80 on November 17, 2020, 04:19:23 PM
that would be the same project, not a different one.
All at once, or nobody.
That is not how politics works. You just cannot take on everybody at once. You have only so much political capital to burn.
Joint statement by Warsaw and Budapest on this - which is excellent trolling but not totally inaccurate.
Basically they point out that the rule of law conditionality isn't in the treaties and is based on ambiguous terms without clear criteria for sanctions or legal procedures for the application of these sanctions. They say that if the EU wants to establish a link between its budget and rule of law, then the treaty should be followed - starting with an intergovernmental conference to negotiate amendments to the treaties. It's clearly mainly trolling but - they kind of have a point.
It does also get to an issue that the EU is kind of reaching the limit of what it can do (especially with common debt and financial transfers) based on the current treaties. Legally I'm sure a solution could be found, but in terms of legitimacy it feels like we're at the very edge of applying creative legal solutions to avoid having to re-open the treaties after the trauma of the European Constitution (FWIW I think this was also a big part of what led to Brexit).
Not sure how accurate this'll be but the latest reports I've read are that one solution being mooted is to approve the link between rule of law and funding, but to guarantee that it won't be invoked against Poland or Hungary. So basically the Growth and Stability Pact but this time for fundamental values.
Also given the timing it's likely that the December European Council meeting will have to work something out on this to get the coronavirus recovery fund (and wider EU budget in place), plus Brexit, plus the Greeks are pushing a very hardline (with French backing) for measures against Turkey. Which seems like a pretty big agenda :ph34r:
Edit: It's also really striking how much grimmer the atmosphere is than following the July coronavirus budget breakthrough - also just as an aside the ECB have started raising concerns about coronavirus spending re-linking the bank-sovereign nexus which is not ideal and shows why the recovery fund matters so much.
Russia and Turkey are Europe's enemies and should be opposed with a hardline. Kind of sad it has come to this but it is what it is.
Both Hungary and Poland seem to reject the entire European project but want to stay in anyway, that confuses me.
The EU should stand for Earth's Union. It should aim to be a single market for all, with total free trade, no tariffs, a single set of trade rules, and a single currency. Anybody who wants those can join.
Not even the glowing balls of light in Europe are that enlightened.
Quote from: Valmy on November 29, 2020, 08:53:18 PM
Russia and Turkey are Europe's enemies and should be opposed with a hardline. Kind of sad it has come to this but it is what it is.
Both Hungary and Poland seem to reject the entire European project but want to stay in anyway, that confuses me.
Turkey's still in the customs union and formally still negotiating accessions, though obviously not much is happening on that front. Macron wants Turkey expelled from the customs union for recent actions - though it is kind of striking and depressing how much Macron seems influenced by personal attacks (see also how easy he was to needle for Salvini).
On this subject in general I saw this map posted by Carl Bildt (who noted the trends go back further than the period covered), and it makes me wonder how much this is the cause of some of these issues - especially as Italian politics seems to be moving in a similar direction as CEE:
(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/En6EMvCXcAEF6A0?format=jpg&name=small)
Quote from: Monoriu on November 29, 2020, 09:06:08 PM
The EU should stand for Earth's Union. It should aim to be a single market for all, with total free trade, no tariffs, a single set of trade rules, and a single currency. Anybody who wants those can join.
You'd have a hard time convincing governments to give up their monetary power. Single currencies only work if there is a single political economy across the single currency region. You really think the Chinese Occupation Government is going to give up its political-economic decision-making to Brussels?
Quote from: grumbler on November 29, 2020, 10:39:33 PM
Quote from: Monoriu on November 29, 2020, 09:06:08 PM
The EU should stand for Earth's Union. It should aim to be a single market for all, with total free trade, no tariffs, a single set of trade rules, and a single currency. Anybody who wants those can join.
You'd have a hard time convincing governments to give up their monetary power. Single currencies only work if there is a single political economy across the single currency region. You really think the Chinese Occupation Government is going to give up its political-economic decision-making to Brussels?
China may not. But a lot of small countries will want to join. It is not all or nothing. Some countries may join the common market first, then consider the single currency later. Some EU countries still use their own currency.
Quote from: Valmy on November 29, 2020, 08:53:18 PM
Both Hungary and Poland seem to reject the entire European project but want to stay in anyway, that confuses me.
I know little of the details of Poland but in Hungary, at one hand the massive amounts of EU grants over the last decade directly enabled (or at the very least, made it much easier) to cement in Orban's autocratic power, funding the establishment of the wide network of vassals, and the oligarchs who now control every aspect of the economy and ensure that even if somehow Orban loses an election, the country and its economy remains hostage to him.
More importantly, however, it is only a slight exaggeration that the country is a German assembly plant. I don't think they can afford to put a hard border up with the EU without massive economic setback.
Thirdly, the population is largely pro-EU. I guess a good portion of them is open to grumble about being restricted in teh freedoms by the EU, but even most of them would not want to leave because the advantages are clear. Luckily, pre-EU times are very much in living memory, and we didn't have an empire we can imagine is still waiting for our benign overlordship outside the EU. :P
Quote from: Tamas on November 30, 2020, 03:36:27 AM
and we didn't have an empire we can imagine is still waiting for our benign overlordship outside the EU. :P
(https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/d/de/Hungary-ethnic_groups.jpg/1920px-Hungary-ethnic_groups.jpg)
That, sir was not an empire but Hungary proper. :P
Besides, nobody thinks leaving the EU could move us back in time to that.
I feel Hungary keeps sending insults in order to start a war to break vassalage. :P
Quote from: Syt on November 30, 2020, 04:51:27 AM
I feel Hungary keeps sending insults in order to start a war to break vassalage. :P
:lol:
For sure, though, I am fairly certain some EU leaders (and Orban) look at these stolen grant money as a sort of tribute paid to keep the periphery in the EU's orbit as opposed to Russia (and possibly China, as Orban has been making a LOT of shady mega-deals with China the last couple of years).
Quote from: grumbler on November 29, 2020, 10:39:33 PM
Quote from: Monoriu on November 29, 2020, 09:06:08 PM
The EU should stand for Earth's Union. It should aim to be a single market for all, with total free trade, no tariffs, a single set of trade rules, and a single currency. Anybody who wants those can join.
You'd have a hard time convincing governments to give up their monetary power. Single currencies only work if there is a single political economy across the single currency region. You really think the Chinese Occupation Government is going to give up its political-economic decision-making to Brussels?
If we're going to give them the "COG" moniker, we should go with Chinese Overlord Government. :nerd:
(https://vignette.wikia.nocookie.net/renegade-legion/images/8/8d/Tog_logo_02.jpg/revision/latest?cb=20131018005903)
Latest story I've seen on this is that Hungary and Poland aren't backing down. The Commission are preparing for an emergency budget which will be smaller than current spending but is allowed until the proper budget is agreed. In the meantime Hungary and Poland would get less money (and the four frugals would lose their rebates) with the emergency budget but no-one's budging.
There's also talk that the Commission's looking at a creative solution on the covid recovery fund, which means something outside the treaties or based on a very tortured interpretation. I think that's probably right because countries are going to need that money soon (if they don't already).
Poland is open (and I assume Hungary is too - since they're coordinating very closely on this) to supporting the budget on condition that it comes with a binding explanatory note that the rule of law mechanism is only to be used in relation to the use of EU funds.
Seems like a deal is near, brief reading suggests to me the idea will be neutered beyond all recognition and business as usual will resume.
I hadn't realised but apparently in Poland it's the junior coalition partner that is most strongly against this. The Justice Minister from that party tweeted yesterday: "If the regulation linking the budget with ideology comes into force, it will be a significant limitation of Polish sovereignty... We do not agree to this!!!"
This might be the best twitter thread of all 2020.
https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1337018001493778433
The magical world of the EU?
Quote from: Tamas on November 30, 2020, 04:37:17 AM
That, sir was not an empire but Hungary proper. :P
Besides, nobody thinks leaving the EU could move us back in time to that.
Croatia and Romania don't want to join the Magyar Commonwealth?
Quote from: Valmy on December 10, 2020, 02:49:12 PM
Quote from: Tamas on November 30, 2020, 04:37:17 AM
That, sir was not an empire but Hungary proper. :P
Besides, nobody thinks leaving the EU could move us back in time to that.
Croatia and Romania don't want to join the Magyar Commonwealth?
It would only be Transylvania, so not Romania proper. :P
I am sure the benevolent leaders of the Magyar Commonwealth would make an exception.
Only as vassals, at best. To protect them from the Turk, of course.