Languish.org

Just wanted to get the pulse of Languish on this one.  I haven't heard anyone speak favorably of Maduro, per se, but I get the feeling some folks are dubious of Guaidó's claim.

Weird options, but obviously Maduro isn't legitimate. That doesn't mean Guaido is by default, though.

By the standards of a western democracy, neither. But I think Guaido is more likely to conduct a free and fair election that is likely to result in a legitimate President.

Anyway I do think I can say that if a free and fair election was held, Jaron would win in a landslide.

Quote from: Habbaku on February 05, 2019, 12:11:34 PM
Weird options, but obviously Maduro isn't legitimate. That doesn't mean Guaido is by default, though.

Not by default, no.  By the 1999 constitution, yes.

I have no expertise in Venezuelan constitutional law, but Guaido's case seems plausible:

1) Maduro's presidential term ended January 10, 2019.
2) Under the constitution, the National Electoral Council is given the authority to organize new presidential elections as the "Electoral Power"
3) Maduro did not convene the National Electoral Council to organize the presidential election
4) Instead he called a "National Constituent Assembly" and that body then organized Presidential elections
5) However, under the constitution a National Constituent Asssembly is formed for the purpose of amending the constitution.  It is like a constitutional convention in the US.  It can draft a new constitution; however, until a new constitution is adopted, it has no authority to organize presidential elections.
6) Thus, the last Venezuelan presidential election was not conducted in accordance with the Constitution.  (in addition it suffered from many other infirmities and defects, well covered in the press).
7)  Thus, as of Janunary 10, 2019, there is no constitutionally and duly elected President of Venezuela.
8) Thus, as of Janunary 10, 2019, , the office of the President of Venezula is vacant.
9) Under the constitution if there a vacancy in the office of President, new elections have to be held.  In the interim, the President of the National Assembly serves as acting President.
10) Guiado is the President of the National Assembly.

Not every step in the chain is iron clad but it's a decent argument.

Was the case forwarded to their Constitutional Court? I presume it's all made up by Maduro stooges, but I'd like to hear if they ever ruled on the legality of Maduro's term.

At some point it doesn't matter what some piece of paper says.  If you mismanage your country into starvation, you lose your legitimacy to rule over it.  If established order is incompatible with basic survival needs, survival needs prevail.

The one that's responsible for the least number of dead fellow citizens, be that via political violence, stoking the embers of civil war or indirectly starving them.

False equivalence IMO. Guaidó is only claiming to be acting president until one can be duly elected.

Quote from: The Minsky Moment on February 05, 2019, 01:05:57 PM
I have no expertise in Venezuelan constitutional law, but Guaido's case seems plausible:

1) Maduro's presidential term ended January 10, 2019.
2) Under the constitution, the National Electoral Council is given the authority to organize new presidential elections as the "Electoral Power"
3) Maduro did not convene the National Electoral Council to organize the presidential election
4) Instead he called a "National Constituent Assembly" and that body then organized Presidential elections
5) However, under the constitution a National Constituent Asssembly is formed for the purpose of amending the constitution.  It is like a constitutional convention in the US.  It can draft a new constitution; however, until a new constitution is adopted, it has no authority to organize presidential elections.
6) Thus, the last Venezuelan presidential election was not conducted in accordance with the Constitution.  (in addition it suffered from many other infirmities and defects, well covered in the press).
7)  Thus, as of Janunary 10, 2019, there is no constitutionally and duly elected President of Venezuela.
8) Thus, as of Janunary 10, 2019, , the office of the President of Venezula is vacant.
9) Under the constitution if there a vacancy in the office of President, new elections have to be held.  In the interim, the President of the National Assembly serves as acting President.
10) Guiado is the President of the National Assembly.

Not every step in the chain is iron clad but it's a decent argument.

This. Notice he is not President, but Acting President until new elections take place.

Isn't Guaido only acting president?

Splitting hairs.  Nobody is saying Guaidó is president for a full term or for life. 

I just wonder how Guaido hasn't been arrested yet.

Maybe the strongest evidence that this is for real I think. If just another coup and Maduro had a free rein, then G would be gone already. Or there may be a deal in place?

Quote from: Barrister on February 05, 2019, 04:49:05 PM
I just wonder how Guaido hasn't been arrested yet.

I imagine he surrounds himself with supporters at the moment. Any attempt to arrest him might result in a shooting match with the security forces, and that won't exactly look good for Maduro, will it?

In a corrupt kleptocracy nobody is a legitimate anything.  Now is the time of the protest and uprising not legitimacy.  Guaido is a good enough figure to rally around.  When Maduro is gone the people of Venezuala can have real elections with real legitimacy.  Until then, everything is up in the air.

Quote from: Barrister on February 05, 2019, 04:49:05 PM
I just wonder how Guaido hasn't been arrested yet.

He was detained a couple weeks ago and then released two hours later.  Maduro claims he had nothing to do with it. 

I think Maduro is just being cautious.  He knows if Guaido is arrested, things will escalate both inside and outside the country.  I don't think Maduro has any plans to give in or concede anything.  He keeps saying he's ready to "have talks", but that's not to be trusted, given his and Chavez's history.  What would he be willing to talk about, anyway?

Quote from: derspiess on February 05, 2019, 05:30:52 PM

Quote from: Barrister on February 05, 2019, 04:49:05 PM
I just wonder how Guaido hasn't been arrested yet.

He was detained a couple weeks ago and then released two hours later.  Maduro claims he had nothing to do with it. 

I think Maduro is just being cautious.  He knows if Guaido is arrested, things will escalate both inside and outside the country.  I don't think Maduro has any plans to give in or concede anything.  He keeps saying he's ready to "have talks", but that's not to be trusted, given his and Chavez's history.  What would he be willing to talk about, anyway?

Maduro and Chavez have had talks with the opposition in the past.  It's often a useful way to reduce the pressure against them.  AGree to talks, protests die down, then once talks fail 3 weeks later the opposition can't manage to build up the anger again.