Breaking story. Hostages taken, a bomb set off, and a shooting spree.
My guess is somebody really did not care for the moderate guy winning again there.
Not breaking news for Guardian. We're more concerned about sick Diane Abbott.
Seven dead I hear. ISIS is claiming responsibility of course.
I guess the plan is to hit everybody who ever did anything to them.
They are trying to usher in the apocalypse after all.
Quote from: Tamas on June 07, 2017, 04:24:10 AM
My guess is somebody really did not care for the moderate guy winning again there.
Surprisingly it seems to be Sunni nutcases. This cannot bode well for Iran's already suspected Sunni minority.
Quote from: Valmy on June 07, 2017, 08:04:39 AM
This cannot bode well for Iran's already suspected Sunni minority.
Their Sunnis are suspected of being a minority? Or is Iran's minority suspected to be Sunni?
Quote from: CountDeMoney on June 07, 2017, 09:26:55 AM
Quote from: Valmy on June 07, 2017, 08:04:39 AM
This cannot bode well for Iran's already suspected Sunni minority.
Their Sunnis are suspected of being a minority? Or is Iran's minority suspected to be Sunni?
They are suspected to be terrorists, subversives, and disloyal to the Iranian government.
So they're just like the American revolutionaries of the 1770's.
Quote from: Valmy on June 07, 2017, 09:28:50 AM
Quote from: CountDeMoney on June 07, 2017, 09:26:55 AM
Quote from: Valmy on June 07, 2017, 08:04:39 AM
This cannot bode well for Iran's already suspected Sunni minority.
Their Sunnis are suspected of being a minority? Or is Iran's minority suspected to be Sunni?
They are suspected to be terrorists, subversives, and disloyal to the Iranian government.
The phrase you were looking for is "Iran's already
suspect Sunni minority." Suspect is the adjective form of "suspect."
Quote from: Valmy on June 07, 2017, 09:28:50 AM
Quote from: CountDeMoney on June 07, 2017, 09:26:55 AM
Quote from: Valmy on June 07, 2017, 08:04:39 AM
This cannot bode well for Iran's already suspected Sunni minority.
Their Sunnis are suspected of being a minority? Or is Iran's minority suspected to be Sunni?
They are suspected to be terrorists, subversives, and disloyal to the Iranian government.
et tu, Assburgus?
NYT has coverage: https://www.nytimes.com/2017/06/07/world/middleeast/iran-parliament-attack-khomeini-mausoleum.html
Quote from: Tonitrus on June 07, 2017, 10:10:26 AM
So they're just like the American revolutionaries of the 1770's.
I'm not really sure how American revolutionaries of the 1770s can be accused of disloyalty to the Iranian government, since AFAIK, the Iranian government has never claimed that they owed it any loyalty.
Quote from: Valmy on June 07, 2017, 07:58:30 AM
Seven dead I hear. ISIS is claiming responsibility of course.
I guess the plan is to hit everybody who ever did anything to them.
Their plan may be of the cornered rat variety.
Quote from: The Minsky Moment on June 07, 2017, 04:57:53 PM
Quote from: Valmy on June 07, 2017, 07:58:30 AM
Seven dead I hear. ISIS is claiming responsibility of course.
I guess the plan is to hit everybody who ever did anything to them.
Their plan may be of the cornered rat variety.
This is wishful thinking.
Quote from: The Minsky Moment on June 07, 2017, 04:57:53 PM
Quote from: Valmy on June 07, 2017, 07:58:30 AM
Seven dead I hear. ISIS is claiming responsibility of course.
I guess the plan is to hit everybody who ever did anything to them.
Their plan may be of the cornered rat variety.
Their plans never make any damn sense. They have been locked in a death struggle in Syria and the whole times they launch terrorist attacks against Europe and Russia. My guess is that their ultimate plan involves wings of angels swooping down at the last minute.
Quote from: Razgovory on June 07, 2017, 06:07:31 PM
Their plans never make any damn sense. They have been locked in a death struggle in Syria and the whole times they launch terrorist attacks against Europe and Russia. My guess is that their ultimate plan involves wings of angels swooping down at the last minute.
I expect in terms of grand strategy their plan is pretty much "strike where you can, be visible, provoke the enemy into making mistakes". In terms of sense, I think it's likely found on the local-political level. Carrying out successful terrorist attacks gives prestige inside the group for the organizers, likely increases the flow of funds, improves the recruitment pipeline etc. Spreading out makes perfect sense in that context. If Syria is not going that well, "victories" elsewhere are useful to maintain prestige, stir the pot, and as alternate theatres of struggle.
I would think there's a substantial order of ballsy magnitude to pull something like this off in Iran rather than, say, European countries. I suspect the Revolutionary Guard is a bit more...extreme...when it comes to dealing with the follow-up investigation, suspected associates, family members, etc., as opposed to western police agencies.
Quote from: Jacob on June 07, 2017, 07:20:43 PM
Quote from: Razgovory on June 07, 2017, 06:07:31 PM
Their plans never make any damn sense. They have been locked in a death struggle in Syria and the whole times they launch terrorist attacks against Europe and Russia. My guess is that their ultimate plan involves wings of angels swooping down at the last minute.
I expect in terms of grand strategy their plan is pretty much "strike where you can, be visible, provoke the enemy into making mistakes". In terms of sense, I think it's likely found on the local-political level. Carrying out successful terrorist attacks gives prestige inside the group for the organizers, likely increases the flow of funds, improves the recruitment pipeline etc. Spreading out makes perfect sense in that context. If Syria is not going that well, "victories" elsewhere are useful to maintain prestige, stir the pot, and as alternate theatres of struggle.
I wonder if any increase in volunteers and money is offset by having more people drop bombs on you, try and cut your funding sources, arm your enemies and land ground troops to fight you.
Quote from: Razgovory on June 07, 2017, 06:07:31 PM
Quote from: The Minsky Moment on June 07, 2017, 04:57:53 PM
Quote from: Valmy on June 07, 2017, 07:58:30 AM
Seven dead I hear. ISIS is claiming responsibility of course.
I guess the plan is to hit everybody who ever did anything to them.
Their plan may be of the cornered rat variety.
Their plans never make any damn sense. They have been locked in a death struggle in Syria and the whole times they launch terrorist attacks against Europe and Russia. My guess is that their ultimate plan involves wings of angels swooping down at the last minute.
Those were PR actions to increase the number of recruits.
Quote from: Jacob on June 07, 2017, 07:20:43 PM
Quote from: Razgovory on June 07, 2017, 06:07:31 PM
Their plans never make any damn sense. They have been locked in a death struggle in Syria and the whole times they launch terrorist attacks against Europe and Russia. My guess is that their ultimate plan involves wings of angels swooping down at the last minute.
I expect in terms of grand strategy their plan is pretty much "strike where you can, be visible, provoke the enemy into making mistakes". In terms of sense, I think it's likely found on the local-political level. Carrying out successful terrorist attacks gives prestige inside the group for the organizers, likely increases the flow of funds, improves the recruitment pipeline etc. Spreading out makes perfect sense in that context. If Syria is not going that well, "victories" elsewhere are useful to maintain prestige, stir the pot, and as alternate theatres of struggle.
:osama: :yes:
Quote from: CountDeMoney on June 07, 2017, 07:25:52 PM
I would think there's a substantial order of ballsy magnitude to pull something like this off in Iran rather than, say, European countries. I suspect the Revolutionary Guard is a bit more...extreme...when it comes to dealing with the follow-up investigation, suspected associates, family members, etc., as opposed to western police agencies.
Almost certainly true, but they feel the need to hit Iran due to the massive support given to the Syrian government (and Hizbollah...)
Part of the ISIS DNA, and what made them split from AQ in the first place - Zarqawi engaged in inter-confessional killings in Iraq AGAINST THE EXPLICIT ORDERS of AQ Leadership. Zarqawi and his gang (literally, gang) were engaging in violence on a level that even AQ couldn't stomach... and that's why they eventually split off (totally) from their nominal association to AQ.
PS - I haven't heard ANYTHING about the identities of the attackers - were they Arabistan (Arabic-speaking area in SW Iran) or Baluchis (SE Iran) - or were they infiltrators from somewhere else? I've been in conferences all week and haven't heard much news past the NPR and C-SPAN radio in the beltway... and that was all Comey and DeVos all week.
Quote from: AnchorClanker on June 11, 2017, 12:15:55 AM
PS - I haven't heard ANYTHING about the identities of the attackers - were they Arabistan (Arabic-speaking area in SW Iran) or Baluchis (SE Iran) - or were they infiltrators from somewhere else? I've been in conferences all week and haven't heard much news past the NPR and C-SPAN radio in the beltway... and that was all Comey and DeVos all week.
One was definitely a native Baluchi for the SE. Not sure if he was the ring leader, but his origin was reported as Iranian born.
Quote from: mongers on June 11, 2017, 07:51:07 AM
Quote from: AnchorClanker on June 11, 2017, 12:15:55 AM
PS - I haven't heard ANYTHING about the identities of the attackers - were they Arabistan (Arabic-speaking area in SW Iran) or Baluchis (SE Iran) - or were they infiltrators from somewhere else? I've been in conferences all week and haven't heard much news past the NPR and C-SPAN radio in the beltway... and that was all Comey and DeVos all week.
One was definitely a native Baluchi for the SE. Not sure if he was the ring leader, but his origin was reported as Iranian born.
Ah, interesting. There's been a long-running, low-level insurgency down there for quite some time. It almost sounds like ISIS managed to get one of those guys to 'pledge' to ISIS so they could claim 'actions' as their own.
Iranian Kurds have been implicated as well. Dunno how legit that is.
https://www.nytimes.com/2017/06/09/world/middleeast/iran-attack-isis-terrorism.html?_r=0
QuoteThe men who made their way through the Parliament building on Wednesday, shooting assault rifles, throwing grenades and searching for a way into the main hall, were probably Iranian Kurds, security sources say, though only one has been identified. One of the two assailants at a shrine is understood to be an Iranian Kurd, the security sources said.
The Ministry of Intelligence identified one gunman, Serias Sadeghi, as an Iranian Kurd from the city of Paveh in the country's west near the Iraqi border. In 2014, the Democratic Party of Kurdistan Iran, an opposition party, published a report about increasing Islamic State activities in Iranian Kurdistan that singled him out as a prominent recruiter who, at times, held sessions in a local mosque.
So if this is correct, there are Kurdish sympathizers of the IS in Iran, but in Iraq they are deadly enemies? I don't get the Middle East.
Quote from: Zanza on June 11, 2017, 01:11:59 PM
So if this is correct, there are Kurdish sympathizers of the IS in Iran, but in Iraq they are deadly enemies? I don't get the Middle East.
Few do. :)
That's why I love it when people pontificate on things they don't really spend that much time studying. It's amusing.
Quote from: Zanza on June 11, 2017, 01:11:59 PM
So if this is correct, there are Kurdish sympathizers of the IS in Iran, but in Iraq they are deadly enemies? I don't get the Middle East.
there are kurds that vote for ergdogan too and there are indeed kurds that are pro-IS. Most of them are, after all, still muslim and as such not above emulating their so-called prophet.
Quote from: Crazy_Ivan80 on June 11, 2017, 01:45:18 PM
Quote from: Zanza on June 11, 2017, 01:11:59 PM
So if this is correct, there are Kurdish sympathizers of the IS in Iran, but in Iraq they are deadly enemies? I don't get the Middle East.
there are kurds that vote for ergdogan too and there are indeed kurds that are pro-IS. Most of them are, after all, still muslim and as such not above emulating their so-called prophet.
Well, yes and no - it comes down to a mix of "Which identity predominates? Ethnic identity or religious identity?" stirred in with "My enemies enemy is my friend" - which gets really, really hectic when multiplied over many nations, many tribes, many sects, etc.
Saladin: any insight would be much appreciated. One doesn't hear much about the Iranian Kurds.
Saladin has not posted here in years :(
Saladin?
QuoteLast Active: March 10, 2013, 06:14:15 am
:lol: Where and when exactly do you think you are, Ank?
Quote from: CountDeMoney on June 11, 2017, 02:59:36 PM
Saladin?
QuoteLast Active: March 10, 2013, 06:14:15 am
:lol: Where and when exactly do you think you are, Ank?
Ah, didn't think to check the log for his last sign-in.
Quote from: Valmy on June 11, 2017, 02:22:25 PM
Saladin has not posted here in years :(
wasn't he from Turkey, in academia?
If so: given what's been going on there he might not even be a free man atm.
Quote from: Crazy_Ivan80 on June 11, 2017, 03:12:51 PM
Quote from: Valmy on June 11, 2017, 02:22:25 PM
Saladin has not posted here in years :(
wasn't he from Turkey, in academia?
If so: given what's been going on there he might not even be a free man atm.
I thought he was an Iraqi Kurd in Sweden... :hide:
One of his few posts seems to support the Swedish part.
AFAIK he's a Swede.
Quote from: Crazy_Ivan80 on June 11, 2017, 03:12:51 PM
Quote from: Valmy on June 11, 2017, 02:22:25 PM
Saladin has not posted here in years :(
wasn't he from Turkey, in academia?
If so: given what's been going on there he might not even be a free man atm.
You are thinking of Tuna
Quote from: Valmy on June 11, 2017, 07:37:16 PM
Quote from: Crazy_Ivan80 on June 11, 2017, 03:12:51 PM
Quote from: Valmy on June 11, 2017, 02:22:25 PM
Saladin has not posted here in years :(
wasn't he from Turkey, in academia?
If so: given what's been going on there he might not even be a free man atm.
You are thinking of Tuna
indeed I was.
edit: messed up the text-location.
I mean don't get me wrong Saladin was one of my favorite posters but I doubt he even drops in lurk much anymore.