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General Category => Off the Record => Topic started by: Jacob on August 25, 2016, 07:19:55 PM

Title: Tone and Conflict Prediction in International Affairs
Post by: Jacob on August 25, 2016, 07:19:55 PM
Fahdiz posted this on FB. I thought it might be of interest to some languishites:

http://bit.ly/2bB8pEy

Quote from: fahdizLong, but worth it. From the abstract: "Applying tone and geographic analysis to a 30–year worldwide news archive, global news tone is found to have forecasted the revolutions in Tunisia, Egypt, and Libya, including the removal of Egyptian President Mubarak, predicted the stability of Saudi Arabia (at least through May 2011), estimated Osama Bin Laden's likely hiding place as a 200–kilometer radius in Northern Pakistan that includes Abbotabad, and offered a new look at the world's cultural affiliations."

This data science was done using the supercomputer Nautilus.
Title: Re: Tone and Conflict Prediction in International Affairs
Post by: Eddie Teach on August 25, 2016, 07:29:55 PM
Do they predict a Cubs World Series victory in our lifetimes?
Title: Re: Tone and Conflict Prediction in International Affairs
Post by: Tonitrus on August 25, 2016, 07:36:53 PM
Does it do lottery tickets?
Title: Re: Tone and Conflict Prediction in International Affairs
Post by: CountDeMoney on August 25, 2016, 07:48:50 PM
Quote from: Jacob on August 25, 2016, 07:19:55 PM
Fahdiz posted this on FB.

Considering the number of games he burns through on Steam, surprised he has the time for Facebook.  Must've been 83% off for 2 hours.
Title: Re: Tone and Conflict Prediction in International Affairs
Post by: derspiess on August 25, 2016, 08:01:44 PM
Quote from: Peter Wiggin on August 25, 2016, 07:29:55 PM
Do they predict a Cubs World Series victory in our lifetimes?

(https://languish.org/forums/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Fi43.tinypic.com%2F27yv0vo.jpg&hash=ed0cf4613a22d8c29f5177ac7bfc06a263457f9c)
Title: Re: Tone and Conflict Prediction in International Affairs
Post by: Ed Anger on August 25, 2016, 08:19:43 PM
Tell Fagdiz to show up here once in awhile.
Title: Re: Tone and Conflict Prediction in International Affairs
Post by: alfred russel on August 25, 2016, 10:45:20 PM
Quote from: derspiess on August 25, 2016, 08:01:44 PM
Quote from: Peter Wiggin on August 25, 2016, 07:29:55 PM
Do they predict a Cubs World Series victory in our lifetimes?

(https://languish.org/forums/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Fi43.tinypic.com%2F27yv0vo.jpg&hash=ed0cf4613a22d8c29f5177ac7bfc06a263457f9c)

Derspiess, I"m very sorry to hear that you will be dying before early November. :(
Title: Re: Tone and Conflict Prediction in International Affairs
Post by: jimmy olsen on August 25, 2016, 11:09:01 PM
Quote from: Jacob on August 25, 2016, 07:19:55 PM
Fahdiz posted this on FB. I thought it might be of interest to some languishites:

http://bit.ly/2bB8pEy

Quote from: fahdizLong, but worth it. From the abstract: "Applying tone and geographic analysis to a 30–year worldwide news archive, global news tone is found to have forecasted the revolutions in Tunisia, Egypt, and Libya, including the removal of Egyptian President Mubarak, predicted the stability of Saudi Arabia (at least through May 2011), estimated Osama Bin Laden's likely hiding place as a 200–kilometer radius in Northern Pakistan that includes Abbotabad, and offered a new look at the world's cultural affiliations."

This data science was done using the supercomputer Nautilus.

It's easy to build a model that will predict past events correctly, but those models often fail when applied to predicting the future.

Title: Re: Tone and Conflict Prediction in International Affairs
Post by: Martinus on August 26, 2016, 01:04:57 AM
I hope he is not still traumatised from that Defcon game. That thing left him triggered AF.
Title: Re: Tone and Conflict Prediction in International Affairs
Post by: CountDeMoney on August 26, 2016, 06:29:37 AM
 :lol:  the sobbing