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General Category => Off the Record => Topic started by: Berkut on June 25, 2016, 02:09:56 PM

Title: Is Brexit and indicator that the EU itself is just not workable?
Post by: Berkut on June 25, 2016, 02:09:56 PM
I've long thought that the EU was a great idea...if it could be something that could actually become a nation in and of itself. IE, a organization where the people in it, by and large, identify themselves more as members of that rather than members of their own individual countries, and can therefore tolerate what is often going to be "losing" regional decisions.


But it doesn't seem to me like the EU is anywhere near such a thing - and without it, the scope of it's possible influence is radically smaller than what is needed to actually achieve anything particularly useful. Because at the end of the day, political power is a zero sum game - any power the EU has has to come from its member states giving up some of their own, which means that fundamentally the EU must have sovereighnity over it's constituent members for it to be anything more than a glorified trade agreement.


I suspect that the British jumping ship fundamentally illustrates just this problem. The EU has tried, IMO, to have it both ways. It wants to be something more than a trade agreement, but at the same time leave actual sovereignty in the hands of its constituent members. I just do not see how that can work. It is, fundamentally, a half measure.
Title: Re: Is Brexit and indicator that the EU itself is just not workable?
Post by: Josquius on June 25, 2016, 02:14:30 PM
It's an indication that it's PR department sucks.
Title: Re: Is Brexit and indicator that the EU itself is just not workable?
Post by: fromtia on June 25, 2016, 02:30:12 PM
I think it's workable, desirable even. It can be viewed as a federalizing project and all the arguments involved in a process of that nature and scope need to take place, and it's getting a little messy apparently.

I think the really big problem with the EU, and of course there is a lot not to like, is that it is an unpopular bugbear with a lot of working people across Europe and as such can be rent asunder by the parties of the right who are not in favor of the project.

Brexit was formented by a wing of the British Conservative party. Ramsay Bolton Cameron thought he was going to settle their hash with a referendum. Wackiness ensued.
Title: Re: Is Brexit and indicator that the EU itself is just not workable?
Post by: Razgovory on June 25, 2016, 02:31:17 PM
Way back when, before any of the recent crises, when all the Euros were euphoric I thought there some major problems resulting from a lack of central authority.  What keeps a big nation from abusing a smaller nation and what happens if someone tries to leave (at this time the EU didn't even have exit clause).  Government by treaty just doesn't seem like it will work in the long run.
Title: Re: Is Brexit and indicator that the EU itself is just not workable?
Post by: OttoVonBismarck on June 25, 2016, 02:42:30 PM
The UK was a strange outlier in that it was the only large country that was always somewhat separate from the EU. It negotiated special status after in the early 90s as the Eurozone was forming, for example.

Now that Britain is gone the Eurozone and the EU are closer to being one and the same, with every state other than Denmark having signed an obligation to "eventually" enter the Eurozone. When you have a union of 27 (or 26) states that all use the same currency, you need a much tighter coordination of fiscal and broad economic policies for it to work, than we have had thus far. This means a further erosion of sovereignty--importantly there are supposed to be some broad guidelines for member states, like debt as a percentage of GDP and on deficit spending, that went unenforced and resulted in serious problems.

The current EU/Eurozone some countries benefit from the system dramatically more than others, look at Germany, which would have a much more "expensive" currency if it wasn't part of the Eurozone.

For this plan to turn the EU into a Federation, you need to get on with getting the rest of the EU into the Eurozone, and then you need to structure the Federation so there are more mechanisms to collect revenues at the Federation level and distribute benefits with more going to countries that need it more than those who do not. That's one reason Federal states like America are so strong--the poor states benefit immensely from the arrangement.
Title: Re: Is Brexit and indicator that the EU itself is just not workable?
Post by: OttoVonBismarck on June 25, 2016, 02:46:20 PM
I think part of the issue too is the EU is so byzantine, I think very few ordinary citizens understand its workings, and can clearly delineate / explain the different organs of government. I think there's also confusion about "what is a benefit/cost of being in the EU, and what is actually the result of some other pan-European treaty that is separate from, but covers a largely coterminous area as the EU?" Who sets x regulation? What exactly does a member of the european parliament do?

I'm not exactly sure why it seems the people are so ignorant of this, but they frankly appear to be. I guess there are parallels to here in America, where many people cannot name the three branches of government, but I think at least a "decent" chunk of people can, if for no greater reason than High School civics classes.

How many EU citizens actually could draw this image on their own, and explain the different pieces:

EU Political Structure (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/European_Union#/media/File:Political_System_of_the_European_Union.svg)
Title: Re: Is Brexit and indicator that the EU itself is just not workable?
Post by: The Minsky Moment on June 25, 2016, 03:03:27 PM
The EU is fine, but the Eurozone has unresolved structural problems.  A currency union covering strong central regions and weaker peripheral ones has to have mechanisms to get liquidity out to the periphery in times of crisis, and regular mechanisms to adjust for varying levels of competitiveness (because the deficit countries can't devalue).  The EZ doesn't have that and the last crisis was brutal.  Probably cant survive a repeat of that.
Title: Re: Is Brexit and indicator that the EU itself is just not workable?
Post by: Berkut on June 25, 2016, 03:19:35 PM
But MInsky, that is what I mean - everything *could* be fine, it's not like the EU cannot do what they are trying to do...I just don't think they can do it in the manner they seem to be trying to do it.

The benefit to be gained from operating as a whole rather than 27 parts cannot be gained while still maintaining the 27 parts as autonomous units. You can have 27, or you can have 1, but you can't have both.
Title: Re: Is Brexit and indicator that the EU itself is just not workable?
Post by: MadImmortalMan on June 25, 2016, 03:29:58 PM
They found lots of creative ways to get money to the periphery states.

I don't think it can be blamed on the EU as an idea, or even the EU's particular institutions as THE cause of it's own weakness. Surely they could be better, simpler, more democratic. But a lot of the things that have people so angry are causes external to that. ISIS, the Arab Spring, worldwide central banks suppressing rates for so long and likely a lot longer. The EU didn't specifically cause those things, it just isn't flexible enough to be able to handle them properly.
Title: Re: Is Brexit and indicator that the EU itself is just not workable?
Post by: Admiral Yi on June 25, 2016, 03:43:34 PM
Quote from: The Minsky Moment on June 25, 2016, 03:03:27 PM
The EU is fine, but the Eurozone has unresolved structural problems.  A currency union covering strong central regions and weaker peripheral ones has to have mechanisms to get liquidity out to the periphery in times of crisis, and regular mechanisms to adjust for varying levels of competitiveness (because the deficit countries can't devalue).  The EZ doesn't have that and the last crisis was brutal.  Probably cant survive a repeat of that.

Change Basel II so that sovereigns aren't valued at par in capital.  That breaks the link between banking and deficit spending.
Title: Re: Is Brexit and indicator that the EU itself is just not workable?
Post by: Berkut on June 25, 2016, 03:46:47 PM
Quote from: MadImmortalMan on June 25, 2016, 03:29:58 PM
They found lots of creative ways to get money to the periphery states.

I don't think it can be blamed on the EU as an idea, or even the EU's particular institutions as THE cause of it's own weakness. Surely they could be better, simpler, more democratic. But a lot of the things that have people so angry are causes external to that. ISIS, the Arab Spring, worldwide central banks suppressing rates for so long and likely a lot longer. The EU didn't specifically cause those things, it just isn't flexible enough to be able to handle them properly.

Indeed, and that is what I am getting at. They didn't create those problems, but they cannot react to them reasonably because they lack the political power to actually act as a union. And that is because France is not culturally or politically ready to have something like the Paris attacks happen, and then say "Hey EU, how are we going to respond to that?". Because it isn't actually a union at all, it is just a trade organization. And as such, when they try to do more than be a trade organization, they are inevitably going to step on toes and run up against the cultural reality that Brits are Brits first, Scots second (or vice versa) and "Europeans" a distant third, at best. Same with Germans and French.

The basic problem is that Europe wants something, but isn't interested or willing in giving up the sovereignty necessary to get it. They want to have the *power* of a united, 500 million person "country", but still be able to make the important decisions locally. You can have the first, but not the second.

I think things like Brexit are, to a degree, the reaction to the EU trying to be more than that trade federation when it runs up against the cultural reality that people who live in Europe are not really Europeans.

I would say maybe they need a nice Civil War to bring them together but...well, they've had enough wars. If it hasn't worked so far, it probably won't after another go around...
Title: Re: Is Brexit and indicator that the EU itself is just not workable?
Post by: alfred russel on June 25, 2016, 03:56:16 PM
The eu and its predecessors have been operating almost since the end of wwii. It has expanded many times, and a number of countries are clamoring to get in. Since wwii, the eu members have experienced a run of economic growth and stability unprecedented in european history.

Not sure why we should question if it is workable because a very close plebicite in one country.
Title: Re: Is Brexit and indicator that the EU itself is just not workable?
Post by: mongers on June 25, 2016, 03:57:01 PM
The Brexit result indicates the UK itself is just not workable.   :bowler:
Title: Re: Is Brexit and indicator that the EU itself is just not workable?
Post by: Crazy_Ivan80 on June 26, 2016, 03:56:04 AM
Quote from: fromtia on June 25, 2016, 02:30:12 PM
I think the really big problem with the EU, and of course there is a lot not to like, is that it is an unpopular bugbear with a lot of working people across Europe and as such can be rent asunder by the parties of the right or the left who are not in favor of the project.

correct that for you as being pro-/contra- eu is not a left/right divide.
Title: Re: Is Brexit and indicator that the EU itself is just not workable?
Post by: Crazy_Ivan80 on June 26, 2016, 03:59:59 AM
Quote from: alfred russel on June 25, 2016, 03:56:16 PM
The eu and its predecessors have been operating almost since the end of wwii. It has expanded many times, and a number of countries are clamoring to get in. Since wwii, the eu members have experienced a run of economic growth and stability unprecedented in european history.

Not sure why we should question if it is workable because a very close plebicite in one country.

A lot of that has been made possible because of NATO however. A reality far too many in the EU like to ignore. Which is one of the reasons why it was something of a disgrace that it was the EU that got that nobel-prize instead of NATO.
Title: Re: Is Brexit and indicator that the EU itself is just not workable?
Post by: Zanza on June 26, 2016, 04:44:49 AM
Quote from: OttoVonBismarck on June 25, 2016, 02:46:20 PM
How many EU citizens actually could draw this image on their own, and explain the different pieces:

EU Political Structure (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/European_Union#/media/File:Political_System_of_the_European_Union.svg)
I would argue that image is wrong. The European Council is not an executive body. It's like an upper house of parliament where the member states vote. The representatives of the member states are not directly elected, but rather represent the democratically elected governments of the member states.
Title: Re: Is Brexit and indicator that the EU itself is just not workable?
Post by: Monoriu on June 26, 2016, 04:48:10 AM
Is it indicative of a problem of the EU or the UK? 
Title: Re: Is Brexit and indicator that the EU itself is just not workable?
Post by: Zanza on June 26, 2016, 04:48:58 AM
Quote from: Berkut on June 25, 2016, 02:09:56 PM
Because at the end of the day, political power is a zero sum game - any power the EU has has to come from its member states giving up some of their own, which means that fundamentally the EU must have sovereighnity over it's constituent members for it to be anything more than a glorified trade agreement.
I disagree with the notion that political power is a zero sum game. The EU has been the vehicle by which European countries established lots of supranational cooperation in all fields and this would not be as easy without an organisational framework similar to the EU. The EU limits sovereignity in some areas, but at the same time opens up new areas where policy-making wouldn't have been possible before.
Title: Re: Is Brexit and indicator that the EU itself is just not workable?
Post by: Zanza on June 26, 2016, 04:51:13 AM
Quote from: OttoVonBismarck on June 25, 2016, 02:42:30 PM
The current EU/Eurozone some countries benefit from the system dramatically more than others, look at Germany, which would have a much more "expensive" currency if it wasn't part of the Eurozone.
The skewed current account balance of Germany is not necessarily an advantage. We are exporting capital that is not used for investments here.
Title: Re: Is Brexit and indicator that the EU itself is just not workable?
Post by: Zanza on June 26, 2016, 04:56:24 AM
Quote from: Crazy_Ivan80 on June 26, 2016, 03:59:59 AM
A lot of that has been made possible because of NATO however. A reality far too many in the EU like to ignore. Which is one of the reasons why it was something of a disgrace that it was the EU that got that nobel-prize instead of NATO.
I think you have to credit both organisations. Who knows how NATO would have developed in the absense of a civilian integration project like the EU? Who knows how the EU would have developed without the protection from NATO?
Title: Re: Is Brexit and indicator that the EU itself is just not workable?
Post by: The Brain on June 26, 2016, 05:39:16 AM
A single EU state would be horrible. Different peoples want different things. Swedes want to be insane Communists. Greeks want to suck in any and every way possible. Etc etc etc.
Title: Re: Is Brexit and indicator that the EU itself is just not workable?
Post by: Hamilcar on June 26, 2016, 05:47:58 AM
Quote from: The Brain on June 26, 2016, 05:39:16 AM
A single EU state would be horrible. Different peoples want different things. Swedes want to be insane Communists. Greeks want to suck in any and every way possible. Etc etc etc.

Hasn't there been a bit of a turn-around on the insane communism in Sweden recently? Didn't they quietly drop their "get the whole third world to move to Sweden" platform?
Title: Re: Is Brexit and indicator that the EU itself is just not workable?
Post by: The Brain on June 26, 2016, 06:11:17 AM
Quote from: Hamilcar on June 26, 2016, 05:47:58 AM
Quote from: The Brain on June 26, 2016, 05:39:16 AM
A single EU state would be horrible. Different peoples want different things. Swedes want to be insane Communists. Greeks want to suck in any and every way possible. Etc etc etc.

Hasn't there been a bit of a turn-around on the insane communism in Sweden recently? Didn't they quietly drop their "get the whole third world to move to Sweden" platform?

The refugee thing hasn't been a right-left issue in Sweden.
Title: Re: Is Brexit and indicator that the EU itself is just not workable?
Post by: Hamilcar on June 26, 2016, 06:20:12 AM
Quote from: The Brain on June 26, 2016, 06:11:17 AM
Quote from: Hamilcar on June 26, 2016, 05:47:58 AM
Quote from: The Brain on June 26, 2016, 05:39:16 AM
A single EU state would be horrible. Different peoples want different things. Swedes want to be insane Communists. Greeks want to suck in any and every way possible. Etc etc etc.

Hasn't there been a bit of a turn-around on the insane communism in Sweden recently? Didn't they quietly drop their "get the whole third world to move to Sweden" platform?

The refugee thing hasn't been a right-left issue in Sweden.

Interesting, can you please expand? Maybe in a separate thread? I am genuinely interested.
Title: Re: Is Brexit and indicator that the EU itself is just not workable?
Post by: The Brain on June 26, 2016, 06:41:31 AM
Quote from: Hamilcar on June 26, 2016, 06:20:12 AM
Quote from: The Brain on June 26, 2016, 06:11:17 AM
Quote from: Hamilcar on June 26, 2016, 05:47:58 AM
Quote from: The Brain on June 26, 2016, 05:39:16 AM
A single EU state would be horrible. Different peoples want different things. Swedes want to be insane Communists. Greeks want to suck in any and every way possible. Etc etc etc.

Hasn't there been a bit of a turn-around on the insane communism in Sweden recently? Didn't they quietly drop their "get the whole third world to move to Sweden" platform?

The refugee thing hasn't been a right-left issue in Sweden.

Interesting, can you please expand? Maybe in a separate thread? I am genuinely interested.

Pro-refugee camps have existed both on the left (Soc Dems and Communists) and on the right (Euro-style liberals). In recent decades all Riksdag parties except the Sweden Democrats were pro-refugees, until they made a 180 last year and suddenly were against refugees. The Sweden Democrats aren't really left or right (since it's the only party for malcontents it gets them from all over), they are mostly working/welfare class people who want a big welfare state as long as it goes to white people and not brown.
Title: Re: Is Brexit and indicator that the EU itself is just not workable?
Post by: Hamilcar on June 26, 2016, 06:54:17 AM
Quote from: The Brain on June 26, 2016, 06:41:31 AM
Pro-refugee camps have existed both on the left (Soc Dems and Communists) and on the right (Euro-style liberals). In recent decades all Riksdag parties except the Sweden Democrats were pro-refugees, until they made a 180 last year and suddenly were against refugees. The Sweden Democrats aren't really left or right (since it's the only party for malcontents it gets them from all over), they are mostly working/welfare class people who want a big welfare state as long as it goes to white people and not brown.

Thanks, that's very interesting.
Title: Re: Is Brexit and indicator that the EU itself is just not workable?
Post by: CountDeMoney on June 26, 2016, 10:59:04 AM
Quote from: Monoriu on June 26, 2016, 04:48:10 AM
Is it indicative of a problem of the EU or the UK?