So, the Parliamentary elections are this Sunday. The most recent poll shows the following:
36% - Law and Justice (PiS)
22% - Citizens Platform (PO)
11% - United Left (ZL)
6% - Modern (Nowoczesna)
6% - Kukiz 2015
6% - Polish People Party (PSL)
4% - KORWIN
PiS you know - this is the right wing nationalist/Catholic party of the Kaczynskis twins (one of whom died in the plane crash) - they are most like Orban's Fidesz in Hungary.
PO is the current centre-right ruling party (that's centre right by Polish standards - there are way way to the right of Cameron's tories on issues such as abortion, gay marriage etc.).
ZL is a coalition of social-democrats, liberals, socialists and the green, that was formed only recently but is climbing up in polls.
Nowoczesna is a party created by a liberal economist, and has a very liberal (not socialist) outlook - it intends to capitalise on people who voted PO in the past but got disillusioned with them.
Kukiz 2015 is the movement/party started by the rock man who ran as an independent candidate in last presidential elections and came third. Since then he has squandered a lot of his popularity by making a number of odd political choices and entering into a number of strange alliances (he initially allied with neonazis, for example, but then dropped them). He is a populist and presents a weird mix of socialism and nationalism.
PSL represent interests of farmers, mainly, and they are the current junior partner of the ruling coalition.
KORWIN is the party of the racist libertarian guy with a bowtie.
A party needs to get past 5% and a coalition of parties needs to get past 8% of the national vote to even make it into the lower house of Parliament (irrespective of individual vote) - only United Left is a coalition, all other are parties. The upper house vote is purely "first past the post".
So, it is going to be interesting until the very last day, irrespective of PiS's likely overwhelming victory.
This is because of at least a few reasons:
- a number of parties are close to the entry threshold, which means that a lot of votes can go to waste, depending on the final spread. The vote counting/mandate allocation system is such that the more wasted votes there are, the more the overall winner is benefiting (let me know if this needs explaining);
- assuming the end result is like the one given in the poll (so all but KORWIN have MPs), there will some interesting coalition dynamics going on - for starters, PIS will never form a coalition with PO (and vice versa), and furthermore, KUKIZ 2015 will never form a coalition with PO, and ZL and Nowoczesna will never form a coalition with PiS. It is quite possible that neither PiS + KUKIZ 2015, nor PO+ZL+Nowoczesna will have majority - and each side will need to court PSL. PSL, at the same time, is the only party capable of forming a coalition with both PO and PiS - this is because they are pro-EU (thank you, agricultural subsidies!) and fairly reasonable - but they are also quite conservative. So even if there is a rainbow coalition of PO+ZL+Nowoczesna+PSL, it may be under a considerable strain;
- PO itself has a rather strong conservative wing, and it is seen as much more opportunistic than PiS - so if PiS ends up in power, it is not inconceivable there will be an exodus of conservatives from PO to PiS - and possibly even a total collapse of PO.
Looks like the options are PiS Po :(
Funnily, some people shorten the United Left ("Zjednoczona Lewica") to "ZLew" which means "sink" (as in, a kitchen appliance, not the act of sinking) in Polish. :P
Quote from: Syt on October 19, 2015, 08:49:53 AM
Looks like the options are PiS Po :(
They may be PO, but they proud.
Some crucial information is missing. Like which party has the lowest tax implications on you.
Quote from: Monoriu on October 19, 2015, 09:09:41 AM
Some crucial information is missing. Like which party has the lowest tax implications on you.
No practical impact. I am already paying a 19% flat income tax rate thanks to an optimisation structure that is unlikely to be affected by anything they do. :P
I think some of them are planning to reduce VAT and some to increase it but not by a huge amount.
So, PiS has clear majority. Time to die.
Dove?
I knew this would happen. When you plant a potato in the ground, new potatoes will grow, and it has been five years since poland planted its big dog potato.
Out of curiosity, what is PiS's stand in terms of relations with Russia? And was that even a significant factor in the voting?
They are anti-Russian and not really - on the other hand, their tendency to alienate allies and be completely useless at diplomacy is a concern. And unlike most other parties, they have the same guy calling the shots as 10 years ago.
So this Beata Szydlo I'm reading about is just their Medvedev? :P
Quote from: Tonitrus on October 25, 2015, 05:46:50 PM
So this Beata Szydlo I'm reading about is just their Medvedev? :P
Pretty much. :P
Quote from: Martinus on October 19, 2015, 11:11:59 AM
Quote from: Monoriu on October 19, 2015, 09:09:41 AM
Some crucial information is missing. Like which party has the lowest tax implications on you.
No practical impact. I am already paying a 19% flat income tax rate thanks to an optimisation structure that is unlikely to be affected by anything they do. :P
I think some of them are planning to reduce VAT and some to increase it but not by a huge amount.
19%. :cry:
I suspect this is an anti-immigrant statement. Pretty rich for the colonizers of Chicago.
Quote from: Ed Anger on October 25, 2015, 06:48:23 PM
Quote from: Martinus on October 19, 2015, 11:11:59 AM
Quote from: Monoriu on October 19, 2015, 09:09:41 AM
Some crucial information is missing. Like which party has the lowest tax implications on you.
No practical impact. I am already paying a 19% flat income tax rate thanks to an optimisation structure that is unlikely to be affected by anything they do. :P
I think some of them are planning to reduce VAT and some to increase it but not by a huge amount.
19%. :cry:
Ours is 15% :contract: It is not even a flat tax, rather a cap on a progressive tax system. I think only like two thousand people pay 15% here.
Actually PiS is thinking of taxing me at a higher level apparently. But hopefully nothing will come out of it.
Are they still virulently anti-German?
Quote from: Zanza on October 26, 2015, 02:11:26 AM
Are they still virulently anti-German?
Short answer: yes.
Long answer: they are pretty much virulently anti anyone who isn't them.
Incidentally, late polls are showing PiS's majority waning somewhat, but it is still there. The biggest question mark is the United Left I voted for (see the first post) - they need 8% to get in (as they are running as a coalition) but in the late polls have only 7.5% (unfortunately, the fucking commies from the extreme left party that I didn't even mention before had a good performance in the pre-election debate and stole at least 1 percentage point from the United Left - themselves, of course, they did not cross the threshold but got the solid 4%). So on a final count, if the United Left makes up for the lacking 0.5%, it may take away some of the PiS's MPs (our voting calculation system favours the winner - so the more "lost votes" there are, the better their result, proportionally to others).
KORWiN is also just below their threshold of 5% but I hope they do not get in.
The party of the populist musician came third. <_<
The final late poll results, by the way, are:
PIS - 37.7%
PO - 23.6%
KUKIZ - 8.7%
Nowoczesna - 7.7% (gets in)
ZL (United Left) - 7.5% (needs 8% to get in)
PSL - 5.2% (gets in)
KORWIN - 4.9% (needs 5% to get in)
Razem (the communists) - 3.9%
Quote from: Martinus on October 26, 2015, 12:58:33 AM
Actually PiS is thinking of taxing me at a higher level apparently. But hopefully nothing will come out of it.
Odd that they would levy an extra tax on you, specifically. ;)
Well, they want the progressive tax rate to apply to self-employed people. But if that happens, I will just start a tax-transparent partnership with a friend and still pay 19% tax.
Also, I am coming to a conclusion that I will be much better off voting for liberals rather than social-democrats. Unlike most other Western nations, social democrats actually consistently do worse in elections than liberals, and while liberals are not considering gay marriage their priority (although they are still for it), they will not hike my taxes. Especially now that social-democrats are saying they should change their focus from "civil rights issues" to "social issues", it is becoming a no-brainer.
Quote from: Martinus on October 26, 2015, 12:58:33 AM
Actually PiS is thinking of taxing me at a higher level apparently. But hopefully nothing will come out of it.
Some socialist you are.
Quote from: Martinus on October 26, 2015, 04:25:52 AM
Also, I am coming to a conclusion that I will be much better off voting for liberals rather than social-democrats. Unlike most other Western nations, social democrats actually consistently do worse in elections than liberals, and while liberals are not considering gay marriage their priority (although they are still for it), they will not hike my taxes. Especially now that social-democrats are saying they should change their focus from "civil rights issues" to "social issues", it is becoming a no-brainer.
:lol: Right. Redistribution is a great idea as long as its not your money being redistributed.
Meh, I have always been more pink than red - I support leftist agenda, but mainly when it comes to the so-called world-view or moral issues. And they, on balance, matter to me more than the "social" or "economic" matters. The problem is that until recently this has only been championed by the social-democrats but it is changing, somewhat.
If we had conservatives with views like David Cameron, I would probably vote for them.
So, with the absolute majority in parliament, what are the odds of PiS starting to Orbanize the country?
Quote from: Syt on October 26, 2015, 05:15:40 AM
So, with the absolute majority in parliament, what are the odds of PiS starting to Orbanize the country?
Oh they will definitely try - that has been their official programme ("Making Warsaw the second Budapest"). But it remains to be seen if they manage. They cannot turn to Putin for cash, and Poland is generally much bigger country than Hungary so I suspect it will not be as easy to turn it around.
Btw, Kukiz'15 party is the equivalent of Jobbik so it's not like PiS is the worst option available.
Quote from: Martinus on October 26, 2015, 05:32:47 AM
"Making Warsaw the second Budapest"
What party would resort to threats this diabolical?
So this is how the split looked like in 2011 (orange is PO, blue is PiS):
(https://languish.org/forums/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Fbi.gazeta.pl%2Fim%2Ffb%2F34%2F12%2Fz19090427Q%2CWyniki_wyborow_parlamentarnych_2011.jpg&hash=4970de2ebad927e0cbf4efdb1c15cc00d808c1a4)
This is how it looks now:
(https://languish.org/forums/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Fbi.gazeta.pl%2Fim%2Ffa%2F34%2F12%2Fz19090426Q%2CWyniki_wyborow_parlamentarnych_2015.jpg&hash=4630365a1610941ee2f141ada6109ebc2eb41568)
Only Danzig voted for PO, because they are Germans. :P
Quote from: Valmy on October 26, 2015, 07:41:21 AM
Quote from: Martinus on October 26, 2015, 05:32:47 AM
"Making Warsaw the second Budapest"
What party would resort to threats this diabolical?
They are taking the PiS.
:yeah:
(https://languish.org/forums/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.polishgreatness.com%2Fsitebuilder%2Fimages%2Fmapnazisovietinvasionpoland-651x545.jpg&hash=a64df863bf374933ce91bc7a605fdbf945b07713)
So the final result is that only five parties in the Parliament, but PiS's majority is much smaller - they only have a handful of MPs over 50%.
Even with Kukiz'15 (the hoi-polloi party of the ex-rockman, which brought into the Parliament both a pot-smoking anarchist rapper, and a bunch of neonazis and their programme only says they want a "fundamental change" but without any details) they do not have the majority sufficient to amend the Constitution, which is good.
The remaining three parties are PO (moderate liberal, with some conservative undertones), Nowoczesna (liberal) and PSL (moderate conservative). PSL has suffered a few reputational defeats, though (in some areas, their most prominent MPs did not get enough votes - including their leader).
No social-democrats or socialists in the parliament though. :( No Korwin though, either. :yeah:
In other words, the situation is far from stellar, but it is also far from disastrous.
Anyways, I am seriously considering switching my allegiance to liberals. At least they are not proposing to tax me at 75% as one of the socialist parties proposed late in the elections. Even being able to marry would not offset that. :hmm:
Your abandonment of your political views at the first touch with reality is entertaining.
Quote from: Ed Anger on October 26, 2015, 09:18:28 PM
(https://languish.org/forums/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.polishgreatness.com%2Fsitebuilder%2Fimages%2Fmapnazisovietinvasionpoland-651x545.jpg&hash=a64df863bf374933ce91bc7a605fdbf945b07713)
Frankie boy. :wub:
Frankie Goes to Warszawa?
Relax.
Don't do it.
I thínk "Greater Germany" is a bit over the top. I would describe it as "Great Germany".
When two tribes go to war
Here is an interesting analysis of the meanders of PiS complex and confusing vision of Poland that I tried to convey:
QuoteThe Return of Jarosław Kaczyński
WARSAW – Jarosław Kaczyński's Law and Justice (PiS) party is back in power, after receiving almost 40% of the vote in last weekend's general election and soundly defeating the incumbent Civic Platform, which won 23.4%. Following Andrzej Duda's victory in the presidential election in May, a single party will form Poland's government for the first time since communism's end in 1989.
Indeed, Kaczyński now controls almost all levers of power in Poland. The only hope for those who believe that he and his party's populist nationalism represent a threat to democracy is that PiS lacks, and probably cannot marshal, the two-thirds majority in the Sejm (parliament) needed to amend the constitution.
The election result stands in stark contrast to Poland's economic and social facts. Under Civic Platform, GDP growth outpaced that of all OECD countries, with the cumulative gain from 2008 to 2014 totaling 23.8%. Likewise, unemployment has fallen below 10% for the first time in two decades, and the budget deficit has narrowed from 8% of GDP to less than 3%.
Moreover, Poles have never been as satisfied with their quality of life as they are now. In September, Poland's most important opinion poll indicated that 84% of Poles believed that the past year was successful for them. Nor was it the socially marginalized and the economically vulnerable who returned PiS to power. Civic Platform lost the support of those who benefited most from its rule.
The decisive turning point was the presidential election, in which Civic Platform's incumbent, Bronisław Komorowski, ran a dilatory campaign that reflected his certainty of victory. When he lost, no one in Poland's political class was more shocked than Kaczyński and Duda.
Now, for the first time since 1989, the left will have no representation in the Sejm. Indeed, the vote ended the post-communist period in Poland, as the heirs to the Polish Workers' Party, the Democratic Left Alliance, did not achieve the 8% threshold needed for electoral coalitions to gain parliamentary seats. A new left, modeled after Greece's Syriza and Spain's Podemos, is now being forged, but it is a long way from entering parliament, let alone government.
Kaczyński has already succeeded in eliminating all competition on PiS's right, which is, it should be said, his great contribution to Polish democracy. Unlike in Hungary, with its Jobbik party, outright fascism has no standing in Poland.
Yet Kaczyński will not be the face, at least not yet, of the new government. Because PiS has historically been unable to win elections with Kaczyński fronting its campaign, he hid behind his party's candidate for Prime Minister, Beata Szydło, who previously served as Duda's campaign manager. But Szydło has no government experience and no base of her own within the party. Like Marshall Józef Piłsudski in the interwar decades, Kaczyński will undoubtedly control both the president and the prime minister, while formally remaining out of power.
But to what end? The paradox of Kaczyński's power is that the essential tasks of government – economic stewardship, military readiness, social policy, and the environment – do not interest him. So the government will most likely act pragmatically in these fields, with no fundamental change of course.
Duda has already shown that PiS is capable of forgetting about its lavish campaign promises the day after an election. And the party has a track record of contradicting its own electoral platform: Back in 2005, for example, after promising "Polish solidarity" with the poor, it eliminated the top tax bracket and the inheritance tax.
Kaczyński will focus on appointments to the judiciary, the security services, education, and culture. He has always believed that "repairing the state" is personal: people, not principles, are the key to success.
That is why, as in 2005, Poland can expect a purge of executives in the public media and state-owned companies. While Kaczyński rules out settling scores, he always adds that there will be no amnesty. The guilty must be punished. And the fact that Kaczyński's team criticizes the political independence of the prosecutors, the courts, and the security services suggests that PiS intends to play an active role here.
Control of educational and cultural institutions also plays a very important role in mobilizing PiS voters. As a result, Poland under Kaczyński will persist in policies – exemplified by the lack of sex education in schools or the absence of civil unions – that are an anomaly in modern Europe. The country might even regress: PiS politicians want to prohibit abortion entirely, even when the health of the woman is endangered.
Somewhere at the intersection of pragmatism and ideology lies foreign policy. The government will make noise here, but ultimately it will not risk the suspension of European funding and international isolation by rebelling against the European Union.
Equally important, unlike Hungary's Viktor Orbán, no Kaczyński-directed government will seek support from Russia. At the same time Kaczyński cannot be more vocal in seeking support for Ukraine, because he knows that Poles have become less resolute about this issue.
It remains far less clear where Kaczyński's pragmatism will guide him in addressing the great question of refugees now roiling Poland and Europe. Kaczyński is no fanatic; but he is a cynic. Preventing Poland from accepting any refugees may have been good campaign posturing, but doing so in power would lead to the confrontation with the EU that he seeks to avoid.
Instead, PiS may use the refugee question as the basis of a new political creed. Doing so may not be as effective in mobilizing voters as uncovering the "Smolensk conspiracy" – that is, accusing Russia and Civic Platform of assassinating Kaczyński's twin brother, former President Lech Kaczyński, who died in a plane crash near Smolensk in April 2010 – but it would push similar nativist buttons. It would also render PiS a typical extreme right European party – an ironic conclusion to the process of Poland's integration with the West.
Read more at https://www.project-syndicate.org/commentary/poland-election-jaroslaw-kaczynski-law-and-justice-party-by-slawomir-sierakowski-2015-10#rypuUCeK4B2rTiK0.99
IIRC the same happened in Slovakia in the early 2000s or thereabouts: the liberals fixed the economy and the budget and were promply kicked out to be replaced by irresponsible populists.
Democracy yay!
Quote from: Tamas on October 27, 2015, 08:19:15 AM
IIRC the same happened in Slovakia in the early 2000s or thereabouts: the liberals fixed the economy and the budget and were promply kicked out to be replaced by irresponsible populists.
Democracy yay!
I think an even better example is Churchill winning the WWII and then losing the elections. :lol:
Still, it works better than any alternative.
By the way, I would be interested in hearing your views, based on the article I posted and other stuff you know, about similarities and differences between Orban and Kaczynski.
I really am not sure. Potato Head strikes me as somebody who actually believes at least some of the crap he is talking. Orban has been a radical liberal, a classical conservative, and a self-declared "man of the plebs".
Kaczynski might just be an idiot. Orban is a psychopath
Oh, Kaczynski is definitely not an idiot. He is probably the most brilliant Polish political leader (cue in Polish jokes :P) who is quite a master strategist. So yes, definitely more a psychopath than an idiot.
Final MP split:
(https://static.polityka.pl/_resource/res/path/48/f5/48f5d515-98ff-422f-bd83-5fe6f86312d4_830x830)
Quote from: Martinus on October 27, 2015, 09:17:12 AM
Final MP split:
(https://static.polityka.pl/_resource/res/path/48/f5/48f5d515-98ff-422f-bd83-5fe6f86312d4_830x830)
Ze względu na prace technologiczne, nasze serwisy są chwilowo niedostępne.
Przepraszamy za niedogodności.
Does it work here?
(https://languish.org/forums/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Fi.imgur.com%2FVxR5qZY.png&hash=1f2c1ecf5ed11230421b523e7945f5313caf6f7e)
And final vote split between the main two parties, on a local basis:
(https://languish.org/forums/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Fi.imgur.com%2FuyBLrbI.png&hash=ff3d0e2f1065418eb0e296e3f7f4d70956e73233)
Yes.
That is a pretty slim majority.
Those images show me that Polish looks like a vomit of latinic letters. :P
But I can kinda see the slavic/Russian in it. The "W" is an English "V" sound, correct?
Quote from: Tonitrus on October 27, 2015, 09:34:18 PM
Those images show me that Polish looks like a vomit of latinic letters. :P
But I can kinda see the slavic/Russian in it. The "W" is an English "V" sound, correct?
Yup.
Some Languish posters will be probably interested to hear that the new government is likely to agree to extradition of Polanski to the US (in 2010, the US authorities requested for his extradition but, despite a Polish court allowing it, the government refused - this new decision would be based on a request made in late 2014).
Of course, given that he is not actually jailed, it is likely he will flee Poland to France (he is currently here filming a movie) if the decision is taken. :P
Apparently Korwin Mikke has been fined and suspended for 10 days from the European parliament for doing the nazi salute during one of their sessions.
Quote from: The Larch on November 03, 2015, 08:11:53 AM
Apparently Korwin Mikke has been fined and suspended for 10 days from the European parliament for doing the nazi salute during one of their sessions.
Another yoyo enthusiast becomes victim of prejudice. :(
So Beata Szydlo has been sworn in and spoke before parliament. I'm taking this from an Austrian paper, so Mart please feel free to correct.
Key words were patriotism, honor, and security.
Security for Polish citizens will be prime priority for the government. They will show solidarity with France, but Polish security takes precedence.
There's going to be a few gifts to voters: more money for children with families, the retirement age will be lowered to 60 (women) and 65 (men), the tax exempt income will be raised, medication for over 75 year olds will be free, and a minimum wage will be introduced (or raised? German language article isn't clear).
This is to be financed by increased taxes on large supermarket chains and banks (i.e. mostly foreign investors), and the expected economic growth. EU monies are to be used more carefully and more efficiently.
Economic focus will be on heavy and chemical industry, but also IT industry. There's to be better social security for farmers, and the sale of Polish farmland to foreigners shall be restricted while also renegotiating agricultural subsidies from the EU.
They're also taking back several educational reforms, and stress that "patriotic education" is of great importance throughout the entirety of a person's life in school.
With regards to refugees she stressed again that Poland will not take in additional refugees, and that "exporting your problems to other countries isn't solidarity."
Charming.
Yup, pretty much (the minimum wage is being raised, btw). Nationalism and socialism make for such a charming combination, n'est-ce pas?
The only hope is that they will be as ineffective as 10 years ago. And I think Poland is not Hungary, in that NGOs, independent media and grass root movements are much stronger here.
Women retire earlier than men? That seems counter-intuitive. Women live longer after all.
Quote from: Valmy on November 19, 2015, 08:23:24 AM
Women retire earlier than men? That seems counter-intuitive. Women live longer after all.
I suppose this is somehow linked to the idea that a woman's place is at home to take care of grandchildren.
I fear for my Polish index fund. :(
Quote from: Admiral Yi on November 19, 2015, 05:06:59 PM
I fear for my Polish index fund. :(
[Ed Anger] Potatoes are recession-proof. [/Ed Anger]
Should I invest in potato futures?
Quote from: Martinus on November 21, 2015, 03:17:22 AM
Should I invest in potato futures?
Just make sure they're not invested in Irish potatoes.
The new government didn't take long to make changes...
QuotePolish minister tries to ban Nobel winner's 'pornographic' play
Piotr Gliński's move seen by civil liberties groups as a sign country is poised for a return to draconian state censorship
http://www.theguardian.com/world/2015/nov/23/polish-minister-tries-to-ban-nobel-winners-pornographic-play