Doom? :unsure:
http://foreignpolicy.com/2015/10/07/will-the-united-states-help-if-saudi-arabia-starts-to-fall-apart/
Quote
It's Time for the United States to Start Worrying About a Saudi Collapse
By John Hannah
October 7, 2015 - 3:29 pm
It's Time for the United States to Start Worrying About a Saudi Collapse
As if there weren't already enough problems to worry about in the Middle East, Saudi Arabia might be headed for trouble. From plummeting oil prices to foreign-policy missteps to growing tensions with Iran, a confluence of recent events is mounting to pose some serious challenges for the Saudi regime. If not properly managed, these events could eventually coalesce into a perfect storm that significantly increases the risk of instability within the kingdom, with untold consequences for global oil markets and security in the Middle East.
Here are some of the percolating problems that could throw the country off kilter.
Fissures Within the Royal Family. Last week, the Guardian published two letters that an anonymous Saudi prince recently circulated among senior members of the royal family, calling on them to stage a palace coup against King Salman. The letters allege that Salman, who ascended to the throne in January, and his powerful 30-something son Deputy Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman have pursued dangerous policies that are leading the country to political, economic, and military ruin. In an interview with the Guardian, the prince insisted that his demand for a change in leadership not only had growing support within the royal family but across broader Saudi society as well. "The public [is] also pushing for this very hard," he claimed. "They say you have to do this or the country will go to disaster." The article, which includes the letters, written in Arabic, has been shared more than 15,000 times.
The Yemen War. The longer it drags on, the greater the risk that the Saudi intervention against Houthi rebels could become a serious source of internal dissension. In its story on the prince's letters, the Guardian reported that "many Saudis are sickened by the sight of the Arab world's richest country pummelling its poorest." Particular blame is attached to Prince Mohammed bin Salman, who also serves as the kingdom's defense minister and by all accounts has been the driving force behind the war effort. Tagged with the unofficial nickname "Reckless," Prince Mohammed bin Salman has been accused of rushing into Yemen without a clear strategy or exit plan, resulting in mounting costs in blood and treasure, an ever-expanding humanitarian crisis, and growing international criticism.
Economic Problems. Thanks largely to Saudi policy, oil prices plummeted by more than 50 percent in the past year. Facing a market glut due to the U.S. oil boom, Saudi strategy has been to maintain high production, fight for market share, allow prices to collapse, and wait for higher cost producers, particularly in America, to be driven out of business. With cheaper oil spurring increased demand and squeezing out excess supply, the theory was that higher prices would return before the kingdom ever felt any real economic pinch.
But it hasn't quite worked out that way — at least not as quickly as the Saudis anticipated. Indeed, Saudi Arabia's 2015 budget was based on the assumption that oil would be selling at about $90 per barrel. Today, it's closer to half that. At the same time, the Saudis have incurred a rash of expenses that weren't planned for, including those associated with King Salman's ascendance to the throne (securing loyalty for a new king can be expensive business) and the war in Yemen.
The result is a budget deficit approaching 20 percent, well over $100 billion, requiring the Saudis to deplete their huge foreign exchange reserves at a record rate (about $12 billion per month) while also accelerating bond sales. The Saudis have reportedly liquidated more than $70 billion of their holdings with global asset managers in just the past 6 months.
While there's no danger that the kingdom will run out of money anytime soon, the longer this trend of large budget deficits, lower oil prices, and declining foreign exchange reserves continues, the more nervous international markets will become — with potential implications for key indicators like credit rating and capital flight. Adding to long-term concerns is the fact that Saudi net oil exports have been in slow decline for years as internal energy consumption rises dramatically. Indeed, analysts now suggest that rapidly expanding domestic demand could render the kingdom a net importer of oil by the 2030s. It goes without saying that such a development poses a mortal threat to the kingdom, where oil sales still account for 80 to 90 percent of state revenues.
As for battling deficits by cutting expenses and imposing austerity, it's hardly an attractive option for a government whose main weapon for staving off domestic discontent since the start of the 2011 Arab uprisings has been to shower its people with more free stuff. Energy subsidies alone have comprised about 20 percent of Saudi GDP. There are also extensive subsides for food, housing, water, and a wide range of other consumer goods. As they mull the risks of reform, you can be sure that the Saudis are acutely aware of the role that sharp increases in the cost of living played in triggering revolts across the Middle East, including in Tunisia, Egypt, and Yemen.
On top of its growing fiscal problems, the kingdom's economy continues to be burdened by a rash of other ailments as well. Saudis under the age of 30 make up two-thirds of the population and approximately 30 percent of them don't have jobs. And while hard numbers are difficult to get, reports of astonishingly high poverty rates among native Saudis persist, with some suggesting it could be as much as 25 percent.
Hajj tragedy. Two major disasters marred this year's pilgrimage to Mecca: the collapse of a crane that killed more than 100, followed by a stampede that left at least 769 dead — with many unofficial counts insisting that the real number trampled could eventually reach the thousands. In the aftermath, the Saudis have been hit by a wave of unprecedented criticism over their management of the hajj. This is serious business, indeed. The House of Saud's stewardship over Islam's holiest sites goes to the very core of its claim to run the country. Call into question the royal family's continued fitness to serve as custodians of Mecca and Medina and you're quickly calling into question the political and religious legitimacy of the monarchy itself.
Escalating Conflict With Iran. Iran in particular has seized on the hajj tragedy to intensify tensions with the Saudis — which, of course, were already at fever pitch over the nuclear issue and Iran's destabilizing activities throughout the region. More Iranians seemed to have died in the stampede than any other nationality; the latest count is 464, and it could still go higher. When the kingdom was slow in repatriating bodies, Iranian officials went on the attack. Iran's supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, warned the Saudis that they could face a "brutal and violent reaction" if they "show the slightest disrespect to Iranian pilgrims." Khamenei said that Iran had so far shown great restraint in the face of Saudi offenses, "but they should know that Iran's hand is superior to many others and has more capabilities." He concluded that, "If [Iran] wants to react to disturbing and sinister elements, [Saudi Arabia's] situation will not be good." Iran's former defense minister, Revolutionary Guard Gen. Mostafa Mohammad Najjar, followed up by telling the Saudis to take Khamenei's warning "seriously" because Iran was capable of giving a "strong and crushing" response to Saudi wrongdoings.
Hassan Nasrallah, leader of Hezbollah, called for Saudi Arabia to forfeit management of the hajj to a committee of Muslims. The head of Iran's Supreme National Security Council, Ali Shamkhani, charged that "after [the Islamic State], Saudi Arabia has inflicted the greatest harm on Islam." Revolutionary Guard Gen. Ali Fazli, deputy commander of Iran's internal security force, the Basij, claimed that the kingdom's support of the Islamic State and other Sunni extremist organizations had greatly contributed to the Mecca disaster. Speaking about an upcoming Shiite religious celebration, he expressed hope that "one day, with the fall of [the House] of al-Saud, we will be able to celebrate Eid al-Ghadir at its true location" — meaning, of course, Mecca.
Beyond the hajj tragedy, Iran appears to be escalating its challenge to Saudi interests in other theaters as well. On Sept. 30, the kingdom announced that it had seized an Iranian fishing boat loaded with weapons on its way to resupply Houthi rebels fighting the Saudi coalition in Yemen. The next day, the kingdom's neighbor and close ally, Bahrain, said it had uncovered a bomb-making factory with close links to Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps. Bahrain immediately withdrew its ambassador from Tehran and declared Iran's top envoy persona non grata "in light of continued Iranian meddling in the affairs of the kingdom of Bahrain ... in order to create sectarian strife and to impose hegemony and control." The next day, Iran retaliated by evicting the Bahraini chargé d'affaires.
And in Syria, of course, the past several weeks have witnessed the full-blown emergence of an Iranian-Russian military coalition to keep the Assad regime in power and battle rebels that the kingdom supports. In conjunction with the start of a major bombing campaign by Russian combat planes, Iran has allegedly sent hundreds of more troops to Syria to help lead a new ground offensive to reclaim territory lost to forces backed by the Saudis.
U.S. Retrenchment. Russia's dramatic intervention in Syria has underscored a much broader threat now rocking the kingdom: the growing reality that America is abandoning its traditional role as guarantor of Middle East stability. That's of course very bad news for the Saudis, who have hitched their survival for 70 years to Pax Americana. Now, that U.S.-defended order appears to be unraveling before their eyes. Instead, the new normal is Washington cutting diplomatic deals that promise to embolden the kingdom's worst enemy in Iran, while protesting meekly as its main geopolitical rival, Russia, seeks to overturn the region's balance of power. As surely as night follows day, the rapid decline of American power and reliability inevitably leaves Saudi Arabia increasingly exposed and vulnerable.
No one has gotten rich betting on the House of Saud's early demise. Over the decades, they've shown remarkable staying power in the face of political, ideological, and military currents that have swept away lesser regimes. So predicting that the royal family could now be on the cusp of real trouble is a bit of a fool's errand.
That said, the dangers should be taken seriously. The regional environment that the kingdom faces is perhaps unprecedented in its hostility. The Middle East is collapsing, its state system in free fall. The Arab Spring long ago turned into an Islamist Winter. An Iranian-Russian military axis hungry for hegemony and higher oil prices gathers strength on Arabia's borders. And America is headed for the exits, leaving little in its wake but demoralized allies, emboldened adversaries, and chaos.
All the while, as described above, the challenges besetting the kingdom internally slowly continue to mount. Call up any list of warning signs that a society may be approaching the danger zone with respect to possible instability and match it up against what seems to be happening in the kingdom today. Growing elite fissures: check. Mired in a costly foreign war: check. Increasing economic stress: check. Signs of eroding legitimacy: check. Rising power of hostile foreign actors: check. Declining power of traditional foreign protectors: check.
Of course, it's hard, if not impossible, to gauge whether any of these factors are close to reaching something like a tipping point for the Saudis. Again, if history is any guide, they probably are not. We may still be at the very early stages where everything remains quite manageable through wise and timely decision-making.
What does seem safe to say is that most of the key indicators now appear to be headed in the wrong direction simultaneously — perhaps for the first time ever. In that sense, there could be a greater risk than in the past that, left unattended, these negative trends might eventually converge or cascade in ways that could overwhelm the system.
Yes, the risks that the worst will happen may be low. But the consequences of widespread instability in the kingdom are potentially so deleterious to U.S. interests that the risks should nevertheless be heeded. As bad as things are now in the region, a meltdown in Saudi Arabia would make the current crisis pale in comparison.
While the United States may be severely limited in terms of what it can do in the short term to help the kingdom address its mounting challenges internally, it still has significant capability to alleviate some of the rising external threats and pressures that the Saudis face. That is surely America's comparative advantage: the ability to reassure key strategic partners of our commitment to their security, and our determination to maintain a regional correlation of forces that favors the United States and its friends while deterring our common adversaries.
But that is precisely the role that the Obama administration has so disastrously failed — or, more accurately, refused — to perform over the past several years, in the process undermining the morale and confidence of already fragile friends while super-charging the ambitions and aggression of their worst enemies.
The question now is whether the Obama administration is even capable of recovering from the geopolitical mess it has triggered. Does it even have a clue about the disastrously destabilizing chain of events that have been unleashed by its very purposeful decision to put a "closed for business" sign on Pax Americana in the Middle East? Does it at last understand that what replaces the abandonment of U.S. leadership in the region is not some virtuous equilibrium or balance of power among local competitors, but accelerating levels of violence, extremism, and chaos? Does it have any idea of how it would go about the arduous task of rebuilding the strategic partnerships that its policies have so badly undermined, and stemming the rising tsunami of disorder that now threatens to swamp the region and U.S. interests?
Alas, there's absolutely no reason to believe that the answer to any of these questions is yes. In which case, the risks will continue to grow that on top of all the other disasters that President Obama will bequeath to his successor, he may yet add one more: an increasingly unstable and perilous situation in Saudi Arabia — the world's largest exporter of oil, the site of Islam's holiest sites, and a country awash, in almost equal measure, in advanced American weapons and angry Wahhabis.
Would be nice to have bad things happen to very bad people, but let's not celebrate just yet.
Let Putin deal with it.
What exactly are the policy options that the US administration should, or should have taken, over the middle east?
I wonder to what extent the West's strategy for the region should be to encourage a peaceful revolution in Iran, and then using Iran as our main ally in the region.
I think the general public in Iran is much more "Westernised" and modern than the general public in most Arab states of the region; and they already have a "democracy" or at least a republic. It is also an ancient civilization and a developed country. While they are not anywhere near nice, they seem somewhat nicer than the Saudis. Perhaps a little of reversal of alliances is in order.
Pretty sure that if any kind of "peaceful" revolution in Iran started to get too far along, the IRGC would move in a big way to protect their patronage/corruption and make that "peaceful" part go away.
Googled the author. He was a senior strategic advisor to Cheney. Now that's an administration that has a stellar record in managing the Middle East. :lol:
Quote from: Martinus on October 11, 2015, 02:32:53 AM
Googled the author. He was a senior strategic advisor to Cheney. Now that's an administration that has a stellar record in managing the Middle East. :lol:
Yeah, that's a big suprise.
"Obama administration has so disastrously failed"
"The question now is whether the Obama administration is even capable of recovering from the geopolitical mess it has triggered."
"Pax Americana in the Middle East"
"all the other disasters that President Obama will bequeath to his successor"
Quote from: Martinus on October 11, 2015, 02:22:27 AM
I think the general public in Iran is much more "Westernised" and modern than the general public in most Arab states of the region;
I don't think that's true. It may have been in the '70s, but they've had an Islamic theocracy for the past 36 years.
Quote from: Liep on October 11, 2015, 02:46:11 AM
Quote from: Martinus on October 11, 2015, 02:32:53 AM
Googled the author. He was a senior strategic advisor to Cheney. Now that's an administration that has a stellar record in managing the Middle East. :lol:
Yeah, that's a big suprise.
"Obama administration has so disastrously failed"
"The question now is whether the Obama administration is even capable of recovering from the geopolitical mess it has triggered."
"Pax Americana in the Middle East"
"all the other disasters that President Obama will bequeath to his successor"
Well, yeah, I noticed he was not a fan, but I was wondering more whether he was a critical expert who knows what he is talking about (and so the article may be worth considering) or just a political hack with questionable competences. Turns out the latter.
Yes.
QuoteBut that is precisely the role that the Obama administration has so disastrously failed — or, more accurately, refused — to perform over the past several years
Good.
These kind of op-eds never give a compelling reason to care beyond a general "it would be nice if Middle Easterners lived in stable liberal democracies." Once I thought this was enough, and it turned I was wrong. We can't force a stable liberal democracy on anybody--at least not at any plausible level of force commitment. It's only ever worked three times in history, and 3 out of 3 of those times, the occupied nation already had some kind of liberal democratic tradition, if not a very deep one. 2 out of 3 of those times, we were dealing with Western nations, and the third might as well have been. Of course, we also genocided them until every atom of resistance within them was destroyed. I doubt those circumstances will repeat themselves anytime soon.
Committing to defending the Saudi regime at all costs is not exactly a very noble crusade, anyway.
You guys are selectively quoting like the publishers of a book you know is shit. This is not a wacko statement.
QuoteWhile the United States may be severely limited in terms of what it can do in the short term to help the kingdom address its mounting challenges internally, it still has significant capability to alleviate some of the rising external threats and pressures that the Saudis face. That is surely America's comparative advantage: the ability to reassure key strategic partners of our commitment to their security, and our determination to maintain a regional correlation of forces that favors the United States and its friends while deterring our common adversaries.
But that is precisely the role that the Obama administration has so disastrously failed — or, more accurately, refused — to perform over the past several years, in the process undermining the morale and confidence of already fragile friends while super-charging the ambitions and aggression of their worst enemies.
Quote from: Ideologue on October 11, 2015, 03:24:06 AM
We can't force a stable liberal democracy on anybody--at least not at any plausible level of force commitment. It's only ever worked three times in history, and 3 out of 3 of those times, the occupied nation already had some kind of liberal democratic tradition, if not a very deep one. 2 out of 3 of those times, we were dealing with Western nations, and the third might as well have been. Of course, we also genocided them until every atom of resistance within them was destroyed. I doubt those circumstances will repeat themselves anytime soon.
Doing that to any nation in the Middle East anytime in the near future would be militarily difficult and probably politically impossible, but, dang, it's an attractive idea, isn't it?
Quote from: Admiral Yi on October 11, 2015, 04:05:33 AM
You guys are selectively quoting like the publishers of a book you know is shit. This is not a wacko statement.
QuoteWhile the United States may be severely limited in terms of what it can do in the short term to help the kingdom address its mounting challenges internally, it still has significant capability to alleviate some of the rising external threats and pressures that the Saudis face. That is surely America's comparative advantage: the ability to reassure key strategic partners of our commitment to their security, and our determination to maintain a regional correlation of forces that favors the United States and its friends while deterring our common adversaries.
But that is precisely the role that the Obama administration has so disastrously failed — or, more accurately, refused — to perform over the past several years, in the process undermining the morale and confidence of already fragile friends while super-charging the ambitions and aggression of their worst enemies.
It's not wacko (although it's a little optimistic about our real capabilities). Yet Obama is doing what he was elected to do: disengage the U.S. from the world while we tend to our own affairs, which, in case you haven't noticed, are all fucked up.
Quote from: dps on October 11, 2015, 07:28:29 AM
Quote from: Ideologue on October 11, 2015, 03:24:06 AM
We can't force a stable liberal democracy on anybody--at least not at any plausible level of force commitment. It's only ever worked three times in history, and 3 out of 3 of those times, the occupied nation already had some kind of liberal democratic tradition, if not a very deep one. 2 out of 3 of those times, we were dealing with Western nations, and the third might as well have been. Of course, we also genocided them until every atom of resistance within them was destroyed. I doubt those circumstances will repeat themselves anytime soon.
Doing that to any nation in the Middle East anytime in the near future would be militarily difficult and probably politically impossible, but, dang, it's an attractive idea, isn't it?
Well, I think it'd be
militarily easy.
Quote from: Admiral Yi on October 11, 2015, 04:05:33 AM
You guys are selectively quoting like the publishers of a book you know is shit. This is not a wacko statement.
QuoteWhile the United States may be severely limited in terms of what it can do in the short term to help the kingdom address its mounting challenges internally, it still has significant capability to alleviate some of the rising external threats and pressures that the Saudis face. That is surely America's comparative advantage: the ability to reassure key strategic partners of our commitment to their security, and our determination to maintain a regional correlation of forces that favors the United States and its friends while deterring our common adversaries.
But that is precisely the role that the Obama administration has so disastrously failed — or, more accurately, refused — to perform over the past several years, in the process undermining the morale and confidence of already fragile friends while super-charging the ambitions and aggression of their worst enemies.
Not for the first time, I see a lot of verbiage and a shortage of any concrete alternatives.
Unless there was literally a sign somewhere in the Middle East that said "Pax Americana" and some jerk took it down.
Video has emerge of Saudi 'justice' in action, it shows a screaming woman being held down by other men, as a large man with a sword attempts to line up a strike to behead her, eventually he drags her to the ground by the hair, before striking one or more blows at her neck. This all takes place on a traffic isle on a pedestrian crossing in the middle of a public road.
Is this so far removed from what ISIS are doing in Syria and Iraq?
Quote from: mongers on October 21, 2015, 02:39:46 PM
Video has emerge of Saudi 'justice' in action, it shows a screaming woman being held down by other men, as a large man with a sword attempts to line up a strike to behead her, eventually he drags her to the ground by the hair, before striking one or more blows at her neck. This all takes place on a traffic isle on a pedestrian crossing in the middle of a public road.
Is this so far removed from what ISIS are doing in Syria and Iraq?
That depends on a lot of things you have not shared with us.
Quote from: Berkut on October 21, 2015, 02:42:11 PM
Quote from: mongers on October 21, 2015, 02:39:46 PM
Video has emerge of Saudi 'justice' in action, it shows a screaming woman being held down by other men, as a large man with a sword attempts to line up a strike to behead her, eventually he drags her to the ground by the hair, before striking one or more blows at her neck. This all takes place on a traffic isle on a pedestrian crossing in the middle of a public road.
Is this so far removed from what ISIS are doing in Syria and Iraq?
That depends on a lot of things you have not shared with us.
You think I was attempting to deceive you by holding back information?
Quote from: mongers on October 21, 2015, 02:39:46 PM
Video has emerge of Saudi 'justice' in action, it shows a screaming woman being held down by other men, as a large man with a sword attempts to line up a strike to behead her, eventually he drags her to the ground by the hair, before striking one or more blows at her neck. This all takes place on a traffic isle on a pedestrian crossing in the middle of a public road.
Is this so far removed from what ISIS are doing in Syria and Iraq?
Was that the foreign woman that was executed for sodomizing her infant with a wooden stick?
Quote from: mongers on October 21, 2015, 02:44:13 PM
Quote from: Berkut on October 21, 2015, 02:42:11 PM
Quote from: mongers on October 21, 2015, 02:39:46 PM
Video has emerge of Saudi 'justice' in action, it shows a screaming woman being held down by other men, as a large man with a sword attempts to line up a strike to behead her, eventually he drags her to the ground by the hair, before striking one or more blows at her neck. This all takes place on a traffic isle on a pedestrian crossing in the middle of a public road.
Is this so far removed from what ISIS are doing in Syria and Iraq?
That depends on a lot of things you have not shared with us.
You think I was attempting to deceive you by holding back information?
No, I think we cannot answer your question given the information provided.
Quote from: Berkut on October 21, 2015, 02:55:09 PM
Quote from: mongers on October 21, 2015, 02:44:13 PM
Quote from: Berkut on October 21, 2015, 02:42:11 PM
Quote from: mongers on October 21, 2015, 02:39:46 PM
Video has emerge of Saudi 'justice' in action, it shows a screaming woman being held down by other men, as a large man with a sword attempts to line up a strike to behead her, eventually he drags her to the ground by the hair, before striking one or more blows at her neck. This all takes place on a traffic isle on a pedestrian crossing in the middle of a public road.
Is this so far removed from what ISIS are doing in Syria and Iraq?
That depends on a lot of things you have not shared with us.
You think I was attempting to deceive you by holding back information?
No, I think we cannot answer your question given the information provided.
I was part of item about standards of justice in Saudi Arabia, I'll see if I can find a link to an article. The thrust of the tv report was Saudis also execute people for note just murders/killing, like the family one this woman was accused of, but for things most other countries wouldn't even consider crimes and that standards of justice couldn't be relied upon.
edit: no doubt one could find the execution video on youtube, but I'm not going there as it was enough to see the video frame-stopped before the first blow was struck.
The Other cannot be trusted to dispense justice. Gotcha.
Quote from: mongers on October 21, 2015, 03:15:49 PM
Quote from: Berkut on October 21, 2015, 02:55:09 PM
Quote from: mongers on October 21, 2015, 02:44:13 PM
Quote from: Berkut on October 21, 2015, 02:42:11 PM
Quote from: mongers on October 21, 2015, 02:39:46 PM
Video has emerge of Saudi 'justice' in action, it shows a screaming woman being held down by other men, as a large man with a sword attempts to line up a strike to behead her, eventually he drags her to the ground by the hair, before striking one or more blows at her neck. This all takes place on a traffic isle on a pedestrian crossing in the middle of a public road.
Is this so far removed from what ISIS are doing in Syria and Iraq?
That depends on a lot of things you have not shared with us.
You think I was attempting to deceive you by holding back information?
No, I think we cannot answer your question given the information provided.
I was part of item about standards of justice in Saudi Arabia, I'll see if I can find a link to an article. The thrust of the tv report was Saudis also execute people for note just murders/killing, like the family one this woman was accused of, but for things most other countries wouldn't even consider crimes and that standards of justice couldn't be relied upon.
edit:
no doubt one could find the execution video on youtube, but I'm not going there as it was enough to see the video frame-stopped before the first blow was struck.
It doesn't take much to convince me that Saudi standards of justice are likely appalling to me.
But equating that with ISIS routine executions of masses of people as a matter of course does require a bit more than a story that I hear and do not even find surprising given what I already knew about Saudi ideas around justice.
There is a difference, a big difference, between justice that is incredibly harsh, often unfair, and inflicted in a brutal manner.
And "justice" that has nothing to do with justice at all, but is simply mass murder. Seeing ISIS line up 50 young men in a ditch and machine gun them has nothing to do with justice or the law - that is just murder.
I might find Saudi justice barbaric, but it isn't murder.
If ISIS had decided to make it illegal to be those men, and then immediately found them guilty of that crime and had a judge order their execution, would that have been justice?
Quote from: DGuller on October 11, 2015, 12:56:03 AM
Would be nice to have bad things happen to very bad people, but let's not celebrate just yet.
This is true, but a lot of decent people will get hurt. There are millions of foreign workers there who would be trapped and I imagine that what ever government replaced the Saudis it would be even nastier then the Saudi Kingdom. Think ISIS with millions non-Muslim victims for the their slave markets. The Saudi government will fall one day, and there's nothing the US can do to prevent this rotten anachronism from collapsing on itself, but when it does it will require the US military interventions to save the millions of innocents. I honestly don't care for the average Saudis themselves, they deserve their government and their government deserves them, but a million Indian shouldn't have to suffer because of it.
Quote from: Razgovory on October 21, 2015, 09:13:09 PM
Quote from: DGuller on October 11, 2015, 12:56:03 AM
Would be nice to have bad things happen to very bad people, but let's not celebrate just yet.
This is true, but a lot of decent people will get hurt. There are millions of foreign workers there who would be trapped and I imagine that what ever government replaced the Saudis it would be even nastier then the Saudi Kingdom. Think ISIS with millions non-Muslim victims for the their slave markets. The Saudi government will fall one day, and there's nothing the US can do to prevent this rotten anachronism from collapsing on itself, but when it does it will require the US military interventions to save the millions of innocents. I honestly don't care for the average Saudis themselves, they deserve their government and their government deserves them, but a million Indian shouldn't have to suffer because of it.
I'm sure such caveats apply to many bad entities. Collateral damage is inevitable. So what's the solution? Stop wishing bad things on bad people?
Wishing things doesn't do anything. If it did the Cubs would be 20 time world champions.
Quote from: DGuller on October 21, 2015, 09:28:28 PM
Quote from: Razgovory on October 21, 2015, 09:13:09 PM
Quote from: DGuller on October 11, 2015, 12:56:03 AM
Would be nice to have bad things happen to very bad people, but let's not celebrate just yet.
This is true, but a lot of decent people will get hurt. There are millions of foreign workers there who would be trapped and I imagine that what ever government replaced the Saudis it would be even nastier then the Saudi Kingdom. Think ISIS with millions non-Muslim victims for the their slave markets. The Saudi government will fall one day, and there's nothing the US can do to prevent this rotten anachronism from collapsing on itself, but when it does it will require the US military interventions to save the millions of innocents. I honestly don't care for the average Saudis themselves, they deserve their government and their government deserves them, but a million Indian shouldn't have to suffer because of it.
I'm sure such caveats apply to many bad entities. Collateral damage is inevitable. So what's the solution? Stop wishing bad things on bad people?
When I say a lot of foreigners in the country, I mean a lot. There's 20 million Saudi nationals. There are 9 million foreign workers. That alone should tell you the country is really fucked up. I wish there was a solution. There is an incompetent tyrannical Monarchy keeping the lid on country of vicious, bigoted, lazy jackasses. We see right now how bad things are in Syria
without Baathist control, and the Baathists are mass murdering fascists. When the people of Syria are out of Baathist control they actually manage to be worse. Just remember, no matter how bad things are, they can get worse. And the in the Middle East it probably will.
Quote from: Razgovory on October 21, 2015, 09:13:09 PM
This is true, but a lot of decent people will get hurt. There are millions of foreign workers there who would be trapped and I imagine that what ever government replaced the Saudis it would be even nastier then the Saudi Kingdom. Think ISIS with millions non-Muslim victims for the their slave markets. The Saudi government will fall one day, and there's nothing the US can do to prevent this rotten anachronism from collapsing on itself, but when it does it will require the US military interventions to save the millions of innocents. I honestly don't care for the average Saudis themselves, they deserve their government and their government deserves them, but a million Indian shouldn't have to suffer because of it.
If Saudi Arabia was to fall, the US would move to repatriate some of its allies in the government and royal family. The US would not move to same millions of innocents, nor would any other country, simply because we would be seen as Infidels soiling the sacred soil of Saudi Arabia and that might enrage millions of muslims in the world. A democratic transition under chaos would be impossible, so committing soldiers to quell the rebellion, de-Saudiize the government and install a secular democracy would require a long term commitment of hundreds of thousands of soldiers from all of NATO, plus Russia, if they don't try any interference of their own.
Besides, we don't know exactly how the other monarchies would react. Some members of the Saudi royal family would likely support and finance ISIS, some other Sheiks of neighbouring countries would to. Some others would ask US help. It would be a repeat of the Syrian civil war, and I don't see many countries with the stomach to send boots on the grounds to fight islamists + syria + russia to save civilians.
Quote from: Razgovory on October 21, 2015, 11:43:29 PM
When I say a lot of foreigners in the country, I mean a lot. There's 20 million Saudi nationals. There are 9 million foreign workers. That alone should tell you the country is really fucked up. I wish there was a solution. There is an incompetent tyrannical Monarchy keeping the lid on country of vicious, bigoted, lazy jackasses. We see right now how bad things are in Syria without Baathist control, and the Baathists are mass murdering fascists. When the people of Syria are out of Baathist control they actually manage to be worse. Just remember, no matter how bad things are, they can get worse. And the in the Middle East it probably will.
Okay, okay. Can we at least put Baathists in charge there? :(
Look guys, I have no solution for this. I don't pretend too. I think we are just watching the 30 years war being waged in the Middle East and the War is like a whirlpool sucking in neighboring countries and devouring whole peoples. Bellum se ipsum alet. The best I can think of is we stay away from it as much as possible and hope that in a few decades the people of the Middle East learn that they are going to have to tolerate one another. It just seems a shame that so many people will have to die before this idea gets through their skulls.
Quote from: Grinning_Colossus on October 21, 2015, 08:48:18 PM
If ISIS had decided to make it illegal to be those men, and then immediately found them guilty of that crime and had a judge order their execution, would that have been justice?
No, that would just be slapping the façade of justice on murder.
Perhaps before we collectively expend more energy gaming out the Saudi collapse scenario, it's worth pointing out it's pretty low probability. None of the factors identified by the article suggest significant risk of the regime toppling and indeed the author admits that.
Quote from: The Minsky Moment on October 22, 2015, 11:44:03 AM
it's worth pointing out it's pretty low probability.
spoilsport! :mad:
Quote from: The Minsky Moment on October 22, 2015, 11:44:03 AM
Perhaps before we collectively expend more energy gaming out the Saudi collapse scenario, it's worth pointing out it's pretty low probability. None of the factors identified by the article suggest significant risk of the regime toppling and indeed the author admits that.
These kinds of regimes coming unraveled always seem like a low probability event before they happen, then almost inevitable afterwards.
The Economist had an article on how the price of oil (manufactured by the Saudis themselves) is fucking up their finances. 15% budget deficit this year, after 20-30% surpluses.
Quote from: Admiral Yi on October 22, 2015, 03:56:07 PM
The Economist had an article on how the price of oil (manufactured by the Saudis themselves) is fucking up their finances. 15% budget deficit this year, after 20-30% surpluses.
If you had 20-30% surplus years, you can remain unconcerned about 15% budget deficits for quite some time.
Quote from: Admiral Yi on October 22, 2015, 03:56:07 PM
The Economist had an article on how the price of oil (manufactured by the Saudis themselves) is fucking up their finances. 15% budget deficit this year, after 20-30% surpluses.
Saudi foreign reserves fell by about 85 Billion in the last year. Which is bad, but .. . they still have 650 billion left. So there is a cushion there to ride out the price dip for a while. Of course if prices stay low for a decade, all bets are off.
Quote from: Berkut on October 22, 2015, 03:51:12 PM
These kinds of regimes coming unraveled always seem like a low probability event before they happen, then almost inevitable afterwards.
There really isn't a comparable regime.
As the article indicates, the biggest threats come from inside the family.
There isn't any domestic political organization that wants to out the family.
Quote from: The Minsky Moment on October 22, 2015, 05:27:53 PM
Quote from: Berkut on October 22, 2015, 03:51:12 PM
These kinds of regimes coming unraveled always seem like a low probability event before they happen, then almost inevitable afterwards.
There really isn't a comparable regime.
As the article indicates, the biggest threats come from inside the family.
There isn't any domestic political organization that wants to out the family.
They might be able to summon some of the brutality used in Syria to put down opponents, but I doubt they have the staying power of the Assad family/clan, Saudis can be literally rather flighty eg August 1990 and Nov 79.