USA becomes the first state to recognise Scotland.
France negotiates a bi-lateral treaty including basing rights for French forces.
Norway searches museums and readies said longships.
Somewhat seriously, what do you see happening, you best guess at how events play out?
No 51-49.
Cameron calls for some form of 'constitutional convention' to try and work on plans for further devolution. Nothing is completed by the time of the next election.
Limited nuclear exchange.
Limited fluid exchange.
Quote from: Barrister on September 16, 2014, 04:34:25 PM
No 51-49.
Cameron calls for some form of 'constitutional convention' to try and work on plans for further devolution. Nothing is completed by the time of the next election.
I think a "A Scottish Independence Vote" implies a Yes vote, though my use of English could well be wrong.
But imagine a situation on the Friday morning after Scotland has voted Yes.
The Yes side loses, and a few days later everyone outside of Scotland has put the whole thing out of their minds.
I voted No/No in the other poll, but I have to admit there is a small part of me that wants the Yes side to win just to bear witness to something that historic.
Edit: The title was vague. If it is a Yes vote, there will be a bunch of sad news stories on the breakup, Scotland will go about setting up however the hell it's going to run its own affairs, half-assing some of the steps and getting itself into trouble. Eventually they'll settle into a union of sorts that resembles a less centralized version of what exists now.
Quote from: mongers on September 16, 2014, 04:45:43 PM
Quote from: Barrister on September 16, 2014, 04:34:25 PM
No 51-49.
Cameron calls for some form of 'constitutional convention' to try and work on plans for further devolution. Nothing is completed by the time of the next election.
I think a "A Scottish Independence Vote" implies a Yes vote, though my use of English could well be wrong.
But imagine a situation on the Friday morning after Scotland has voted Yes.
You said "in the wake of the vote", not what the outcome would be.
Quote from: Barrister on September 16, 2014, 04:52:47 PM
Quote from: mongers on September 16, 2014, 04:45:43 PM
Quote from: Barrister on September 16, 2014, 04:34:25 PM
No 51-49.
Cameron calls for some form of 'constitutional convention' to try and work on plans for further devolution. Nothing is completed by the time of the next election.
I think a "A Scottish Independence Vote" implies a Yes vote, though my use of English could well be wrong.
But imagine a situation on the Friday morning after Scotland has voted Yes.
You said "in the wake of the vote", not what the outcome would be.
Counsel, that's a none too accurate quote. :hmm:
What exactly is the vote about? Vague independence? Seems a bit lame not to have an explicit deal on the table and vote on that.
"Clubber, do you have a prediction for the vote?"
"Pain."
Quote from: mongers on September 16, 2014, 04:30:22 PM
USA becomes the first state to recognise Scotland.
France negotiates a bi-lateral treaty including basing rights for French forces.
Norway searches museums and readies said longships.
Somewhat seriously, what do you see happening, you best guess at how events play out?
I say France would be the first state to recognise Scotland. :frog:
New Revived Auld Alliance
Scottish gas and oil could be even more interesting for France but I don't think it will amount to much (minor adjustments compared to Russian gas?).
Interestingly enough, I have heard some plans were made back in 1995 for Québec. :ph34r:
Basing rights? For the US I'd say, more interesting and namely critical to them.
Time of reckoning for Cameron, will he hold the EU referendum now that a sizable part of the pro-EU vote is now away? Juncker was elected, contrary to his wishes, and reports said he threatened with an early referendum if that happened. UKIP will be even more unbearable and blame the secession of Scotland on Brussels and Paris (possibly even Walloons). Tory party to collapse and make Mali look like a governable land.
Northern Ireland even more separated from Britain, some wild rejoicing in nationalist areas (United Kingdom over United Ireland soon) as well as wild mockery of Orange parades/dress-up parties. Paisley would have died early enough to avoid seeing this in any case, sadly.
Wales possibly getting more autonomy (vorsicht Welscher bias hier).
Norway to make sure Scotland does not destabilise North Sea oil and gas prices by whatever means necessary.
Serious dip in gilts as Scotland and Angleland haggle incessantly over the division of the (inter)national debt. Equities take a hit too.
Having a bit of a senior moment here, but are there that many old multi-nation state left?
Rangers fans beat the living shit out of Celtic fans.
Quote from: mongers on September 16, 2014, 05:18:50 PM
Having a bit of a senior moment here, but are there that many old multi-nation state left?
Spain I'd say, but Catalonia and others could get even more inspiration from Scotland. Switzerland possibly (4 languages and cultures more than 4 nations though).
Russia to proclaim that Scotland's independence is proof of western decadence and tyranny, unlike the benevolent Russian rule on all subjects of the federation.
Rangers are no longer in the top Scottish League since their bankruptcy, but they probably still have fans. I don't think they can blackmail the future Scottish govt into giving them a slot in the Scottish league by threatening a pro-English/British insurgency.
Celtic is still there (they won by outlasting Rangers in the top league) and would create its own militia.
Quote from: Duque de Bragança on September 16, 2014, 05:28:26 PM
Quote from: mongers on September 16, 2014, 05:18:50 PM
Having a bit of a senior moment here, but are there that many old multi-nation state left?
Spain I'd say, but Catalonia and others could get even more inspiration from Scotland. Switzerland possibly (4 languages and cultures more than 4 nations though).
Russia to proclaim that Scotland's independence is proof of western decadence and tyranny, unlike the benevolent Russian rule on all subjects of the federation.
Rangers are no longer in the top Scottish League since their bankruptcy, but they probably still have fans. Celtic won though.
Yes Spain is the big one, totally forgot about Switzerland, though there no chance of the Swiss turkeys voting for Xmas. :cheers:
But Yes, if Scotland does go independent, as you and others have said the impact in Spain could be even more significant. :(
Belgium, Switzerland, China, probably India, Canada(!), Russia, Iraq, Turkey, Nigeria....
Essentially all nation-states are subdividable along local ethnic lines. The difference is how far down that path sub-national groups have actually gone.
Quote from: Admiral Yi on September 16, 2014, 05:33:55 PM
Belgium, Switzerland, China, probably India, Canada(!), Russia, Iraq, Turkey, Nigeria....
Mongers mentioned old multi-nation states so that's why I did not mention the following in your list Belgium, Iraq, Turkey, India(est. 1947), China (current state est. 1949), Canada and Nigeria. Nigeria, Belgium and Russia as federative states so that's somewhat close to what is the UK.
Scotland will become a Capitalist/Socialist Green Petrostate paradise that becomes the envy of the world. Language laws eradicate English and restore Scots as the only language. The Highlands secede and then the Western Isles secede from the Highlands. Clan Campbell declares war on Clan Donald.
Quote from: Ed Anger on September 16, 2014, 05:20:59 PM
Rangers fans beat the living shit out of Celtic fans.
There can be no permanent peace in the region without Scotland's willingness to acknowledge Israel's right to exist.
My English cousins on the borderlands should find good loot raiding.
Quote from: Valmy on September 16, 2014, 09:28:00 PM
Scotland will become a Capitalist/Socialist Green Petrostate paradise that becomes the envy of the world.
Exactly how big is the oil industry compared to Scotland's GDP? If it's too big it could be a problem. Yeah they might go like Norway, but the impulse might be more likely going Venezuela.
How many threads are going to declare independence from Scottish Independence? :unsure:
Quote from: Admiral Yi on September 16, 2014, 05:33:55 PM
Belgium, Switzerland, China, probably India, Canada(!), Russia, Iraq, Turkey, Nigeria....
USA! USA! USA!
Quote from: MadImmortalMan on September 16, 2014, 10:47:34 PM
Quote from: Valmy on September 16, 2014, 09:28:00 PM
Scotland will become a Capitalist/Socialist Green Petrostate paradise that becomes the envy of the world.
Exactly how big is the oil industry compared to Scotland's GDP? If it's too big it could be a problem. Yeah they might go like Norway, but the impulse might be more likely going Venezuela.
No. This is all discussed at length in the Scottish independence thread.
King Arthur returns from Avalon and leads several thousand mailed horsemen down Sauchiehall Street slaughtering Celtic supporters as they go; the Scots, realising the error of their ways, beg for forgiveness and a return to the Union.
Quote from: Richard Hakluyt on September 17, 2014, 01:35:13 AM
King Arthur returns from Avalon and leads several thousand mailed horsemen down Sauchiehall Street slaughtering Celtic supporters as they go; the Scots, realising the error of their ways, beg for forgiveness and a return to the Union.
I like yours better.
Apparently it took 10,000 treaties (surely poetic license) to achieve the velvet divorce. Expect much confusion and much dissappointment since nobody seems to have done much serious thinking about it.
Quote from: Richard Hakluyt on September 17, 2014, 01:35:13 AM
King Arthur returns from Avalon and leads several thousand mailed horsemen down Sauchiehall Street slaughtering Celtic supporters as they go; the Scots, realising the error of their ways, beg for forgiveness and a return to the Union.
Given the likely context of Arthur it's more probable he'll go to London first in order to liberate the Welsh and what remains of the Cornish from the AngloSaxons of England :p Then he'll turn to the Scots.
After that he'll proclaim himself emperor and march on Rome.
Quote from: Crazy_Ivan80 on September 17, 2014, 04:27:03 AM
Quote from: Richard Hakluyt on September 17, 2014, 01:35:13 AM
King Arthur returns from Avalon and leads several thousand mailed horsemen down Sauchiehall Street slaughtering Celtic supporters as they go; the Scots, realising the error of their ways, beg for forgiveness and a return to the Union.
Given the likely context of Arthur it's more probable he'll go to London first in order to liberate the Welsh and what remains of the Cornish from the AngloSaxons of England :p Then he'll turn to the Scots.
After that he'll proclaim himself emperor and march on Rome.
Finally a cause I can get behind!
Quote from: Viking on September 17, 2014, 02:43:50 AM
Apparently it took 10,000 treaties (surely poetic license) to achieve the velvet divorce. Expect much confusion and much dissappointment since nobody seems to have done much serious thinking about it.
It would be a mess. Messier in some ways. But in others I think a bit neater than Czechoslovakia since Scotland is just leaving the UK, it's not an equal division of the uk
Immediately: sterling falls, the FTSE tumbles, most of the nation's press goes into a week long dirge about the death of Britain.
Shortly after: Cameron faces increasing calls to resign. Tries to sidestep them. Eurosceptics organise a leadership coup against him. I think Cameron has to go.
Serious investigations begin as to how to handle the break up. I don't think a government of national unity, at least on issues of separation, is out of the question. Certainly the rUK representation at the negotiations has to be cross-party.
Long term: Scots learn that rule by Edinburgh is not very different to rule from London.
Quote from: Ed Anger on September 16, 2014, 10:10:53 PM
My English cousins on the borderlands should find good loot raiding.
:thumbsup:
An economic boom comes to the borderlands as the cross border cattle-rustling and horse-thieving industry returns. The wild MacSheilbhs :scots: and the dour Josquises :bowler: carry on a vicious blood feud that will live on in song and story throughout the generations.
Quote from: mongers on September 16, 2014, 04:30:22 PM
Somewhat seriously, what do you see happening, you best guess at how events play out?
The NO wins, 52-48.
United Kingdom government express reliefs that the country is safe, vows that the Scottish pleas for change have been heard.
UK banks with HQ in Scotland move to London.
Big British corporations with important offices in Scotland move to London.
UK government finds a way to cut money transfers to Scotland that appears semi-legitimate.
UK governments embarks on broad national programs to restore unity, every year, a billion United Kingdom flags are dropped over Scotland by airplane.
Government offices start moving from Scotland to just south of the border, government buildings of Northern england gets more funding for renovations while buildings in Scotalnd are left to decrepit.
Important government offices are moved out of Scotland, back to London.
UK government decides on being more visible, lauch a national ad campaign.
We later learn that these ads were paid twice what they were worth and a part of the money was funelled back to the Labor and Conservative Party.
:lol:
I see the Quebec contingent simply can't let a Scottish thread go by. :P
Terms rUK insists on for Scotland joining NATO: Trident bases in scotland for the full term of Trident operations with option for renewal.
Terms EU insists on for Scotland joining the EU: Joining the Euro and Schengen, that means abandoning the pound and a border fence with England.
day after Vote: Tory Backbencher proposes holding a going away party for the Scottish MPs immediately
One silver lining to Cameron's unpopularity in Scotland is that Cameron's authority to negotiate ob behalf of rUK shouldn't be questioned.
One of the big unknowns if there had been a yes vote in 1995 (or even in 1979) is how Quebec-based Jean Chretien could negoiate on behalf of Canada in negotiations on Quebec independence.
Quote from: Barrister on September 17, 2014, 12:08:29 PM
One silver lining to Cameron's unpopularity in Scotland is that Cameron's authority to negotiate ob behalf of rUK shouldn't be questioned.
One of the big unknowns if there had been a yes vote in 1995 (or even in 1979) is how Quebec-based Jean Chretien could negoiate on behalf of Canada in negotiations on Quebec independence.
That's a silver lining? For whom?
Quote from: viper37 on September 17, 2014, 09:52:38 AM
Quote from: mongers on September 16, 2014, 04:30:22 PM
Somewhat seriously, what do you see happening, you best guess at how events play out?
The NO wins, 52-48.
United Kingdom government express reliefs that the country is safe, vows that the Scottish pleas for change have been heard.
UK banks with HQ in Scotland move to London.
Big British corporations with important offices in Scotland move to London.
UK government finds a way to cut money transfers to Scotland that appears semi-legitimate.
UK governments embarks on broad national programs to restore unity, every year, a billion United Kingdom flags are dropped over Scotland by airplane.
Government offices start moving from Scotland to just south of the border, government buildings of Northern england gets more funding for renovations while buildings in Scotalnd are left to decrepit.
Important government offices are moved out of Scotland, back to London.
UK government decides on being more visible, lauch a national ad campaign.
We later learn that these ads were paid twice what they were worth and a part of the money was funelled back to the Labor and Conservative Party.
And, limited nuclear exchange.
Quote from: Duque de Bragança on September 16, 2014, 05:13:28 PMJuncker was elected, contrary to his wishes and reports said he threatened with an early referendum if that happened.
He didn't threaten, he said he'd be under threat. If Juncker was elected he couldn't guarantee that he'd be able to control his party enough to stop them trying to force an early referendum - which may well happen given that one MP has already defected to UKIP and looks very likely to win his by-election.
Reading Europeans, even the Polish ministers, about Cameron is always odd because they never seem to realise the extent to which he's a moderate for the Tories on Europe and just about managing to keep a lid on a full-blown Tory civil war (which they love so much). He's always portrayed as someone with far, far more agency than he has.
QuoteSerious dip in gilts as Scotland and Angleland haggle incessantly over the division of the (inter)national debt. Equities take a hit too.
The Treasury's already guaranteed all British debt regardless of the result and regardless of the divvying up.
QuoteExactly how big is the oil industry compared to Scotland's GDP? If it's too big it could be a problem. Yeah they might go like Norway, but the impulse might be more likely going Venezuela.
:blink: I doubt it.
In terms of extraction it's not that big - though Salmond thinks there's more (as an oil economist friend of mine said, 'that's bollocks as someone who's massaged figures like that I can see what he's doing' :lol:) though there may be some more and as yet there's no fracking in Scotland.
I think the biggest employer is the refinery, but also Scotland's got a lot of very good companies created by oil to do with extraction and exploration which they already do all over the world, often competing with Norwegian companies.
My view is if they win chances are it'll be difficult, especially for Scotland, in the short-term for about 5-10 years as markets react and things are adjusted. There'll be a few polls suggesting Scottish people regret voting yes, especially after the SNP's first austerity budget which also, as promised (the only outright policy promise they've made) cuts corporation tax.
But basically Scotland will stay a rich country. They'll get into NATO without any trouble and after 5-10 years into the EU too. They might be slightly more left-wing than England or (as I expect) slightly more liberal. They could be a little richer or poorer than they'd otherwise be, but that's about it.
At this point though my suspicion is that there'll be a tight no vote and we'll start seeing federalisation within the UK with UKIP doing quite well with a 'what about England?' perspective.
QuoteOne silver lining to Cameron's unpopularity in Scotland is that Cameron's authority to negotiate ob behalf of rUK shouldn't be questioned.
He'll be under immense pressure to resign or call an election. As a Prime Minister who never won a majority and then lost a chunk of the country is authority will be very much under question. Personally I think he'd have to go.
Quote from: Barrister on September 17, 2014, 12:08:29 PM
One silver lining to Cameron's unpopularity in Scotland is that Cameron's authority to negotiate ob behalf of rUK shouldn't be questioned.
One of the big unknowns if there had been a yes vote in 1995 (or even in 1979) is how Quebec-based Jean Chretien could negoiate on behalf of Canada in negotiations on Quebec independence.
Yes, A Cameron with a scottish kingly name will be negotiating for England in the Union Dissolution.
It's shite being Scottish.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=29-LRuuqFT0 (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=29-LRuuqFT0)
Where is zombie Edward Longshanks when you really need him? :(
If the ayes have it, Trident gets launched straight up and back down again onto it's Scottish targets.
If the nayes have it, Cameron abolishes that toytown parliament the Scots have been fiddling with, has Salmond hanged, drawn and quartered.
Quote from: Sheilbh on September 18, 2014, 05:25:14 AM
My view is if they win chances are it'll be difficult, especially for Scotland, in the short-term for about 5-10 years as markets react and things are adjusted. There'll be a few polls suggesting Scottish people regret voting yes, especially after the SNP's first austerity budget which also, as promised (the only outright policy promise they've made) cuts corporation tax.
But basically Scotland will stay a rich country. They'll get into NATO without any trouble and after 5-10 years into the EU too. They might be slightly more left-wing than England or (as I expect) slightly more liberal. They could be a little richer or poorer than they'd otherwise be, but that's about it.
most likely scenario, imho.
Quote from: CountDeMoney on September 16, 2014, 09:32:35 PM
There can be no permanent peace in the region without Scotland's willingness to acknowledge Israel's right to exist.