http://www.france24.com/en/20140323-historic-gains-frances-far-right-local-elections-national-front/
Will be updated through the night, but the Front National are doing better than ever before in French local elections. They're winning outright in some places.
There's a run-off vote next weekend and the Socialists are in effect already calling for them and the centre-right to unite and beat the FN, which they surely will.
Results like this will, I think, help expand their credibility and energise the base for the European elections - which will probably see the FN and Ukip do very well in two of the three largest EU countries.
Also seems an alarming parallel for Ukip. A lot of the FN's supporters are former Socialists, as Ukip attracts a lot of working class former Labour voters. After a few years of disappointing Hollande/Miliband-ist government one of the man challenges to the centre-left could be from the far-right :mellow:
Edit: From what I can tell this sounds a lot like Ukip at the last local elections. They want from almost nothing to a substantial minority, but it gives them local councillors who are, in the UK at least, the organisational base for parties and help a lot in Westminster and European election. They went from a Euro-election protest vote to something a little more organised and closer to a credible national party.
The center and right-wing parties are doing good though. Paris is again special case with the extremely severe boboisation making champagne left strongholds virtually impregnable. Still NKM for the UMP did better than expected but will still need a miracle next Sunday. I had never seen an election where the media were so biased against NKM and so pro Hidalgo (PS) was the officially anointed heir of Delanoé (current PS mayor). Every small mistep of NKM was news (smoking with some proletarian Poles in the street) while mentioning that Hidalgo managed to have a full retirement by the age of 51 after 20 years of work was virtually ignored.
I am very disappointed personally by the low participation of EU voters in Paris. 4.5% of the Parisian Population and only one out of 6 who could vote, votes, at best. Seems only my family votes in the local voting booth. :Embarrass: Only 11 registered out of 1400 voters, and only three voted. Two being family, the other one my mom probably knows. ;)
The socialists may call for a Front républicain against the FN but the right-wing is not interested anymore in proving the FN is right by showing the establishment unites against them cf. the
UMPS slogan, a portmanteau of UMP and PS, ie the conservatives AND societalistes "socialists".
As for next week, seems things are settled for my arrondissement since the UMP won with more than 50% of the vote. Boboisation is limited to the eastern part and there is still a a real Zone Urbaine Sensible there too scary for bobos to venture in, yet. Of those who live there, lots are not EU citizens and cannot vote anyways.
PS : Front National has again a low turnout in Paris again with 5-6%, comparable to the Greens, but then the French working class has been massively evicted by the bobos.
Before we get Fireblade too excited, they only got 7% of the national vote in an election with record low turnout.
France needs a First Consul.
Quote from: alfred russel on March 23, 2014, 07:37:05 PM
Before we get Fireblade too excited, they only got 7% of the national vote in an election with record low turnout.
True and where they've done well they'll inevitably lose in the second round.
However that is from 0.9% and they've won some of their targets outright (ie. over 50%), in other areas like Avignon and Perpignan they've come first and in many others such as Marseille they've pushed the Socialists into third place.
As I say for me it's striking for two reasons. One is the parallel with Ukip which have also developed a local government base which is key in a party moving from just protest votes to a real organisational base. I think this particularly matters with the EU elections coming up. The second is that researchers in the UK have said that many of these populist right parties in Europe are actually drawing their support most from the traditional vote on the left. The FN are doing well now in old Socialist areas.
It'll be interesting to see the Euro-elections. The FN and Ukip have lead some polls at around 20-30%. The European Parliament could have two of her largest delegations won by declared Eurosceptics. Add in the polling of the VVD in the Netherlands and even the M5S in Italy (still in the low 20s) and I think there's a real problem that Europe needs to address. What's really striking is how these parties are, for the most part, rising in non-crisis countries so I'm not sure it's about the economic situation rather than something a bit deeper and more worrying.
QuoteThe socialists may call for a Front républicain against the FN but the right-wing is not interested anymore in proving the FN is right buy showing the establishment unites against them cf. the
UMPS slogan, a portmanteau of UMP and PS, ie the conservatives or societalistes "socialists"
....That's a very brave policy, no?
Quote from: Ed Anger on March 23, 2014, 07:38:36 PM
France needs a First Consul.
And a marshal wearing spectacles.
Quote from: Sheilbh on March 23, 2014, 08:06:26 PM
True and where they've done well they'll inevitably lose in the second round.
However that is from 0.9% and they've won some of their targets outright (ie. over 50%), in other areas like Avignon and Perpignan they've come first and in many others such as Marseille they've pushed the Socialists into third place.
As I say for me it's striking for two reasons. One is the parallel with Ukip which have also developed a local government base which is key in a party moving from just protest votes to a real organisational base. I think this particularly matters with the EU elections coming up. The second is that researchers in the UK have said that many of these populist right parties in Europe are actually drawing their support most from the traditional vote on the left. The FN are doing well now in old Socialist areas.
It'll be interesting to see the Euro-elections. The FN and Ukip have lead some polls at around 20-30%. The European Parliament could have two of her largest delegations won by declared Eurosceptics. Add in the polling of the VVD in the Netherlands and even the M5S in Italy (still in the low 20s) and I think there's a real problem that Europe needs to address. What's really striking is how these parties are, for the most part, rising in non-crisis countries so I'm not sure it's about the economic situation rather than something a bit deeper and more worrying.
European elections get limited turnout, and the voters that do turn out are often highly motivated (ie disproportionately extreme and anti EU) or willing to "send messages"/troll with their votes ("this election doesn't matter anyway, I am vaguely against immigration and regulations on bananas, I'll vote for this quasi nazi who I would never vote for in a national election to register my general dissatisfaction").
If the European Parliament matters, then that is a problem. I'm not sure that it is a problem.
I'm waiting for the day in which Duque admits that a bobo stole his girlfriend.
Quote from: alfred russel on March 23, 2014, 08:15:10 PM
If the European Parliament matters, then that is a problem. I'm not sure that it is a problem.
Well the European Parliament does matter rather more than most voters realise (abstract voting systems like our incomprehensible D'Hondt PR doesn't help matters). These elections will choose which bloc the Commission President will come from and the Parliament has increasing influence over the formation of the Commission and is now co-legislator in most areas with the Council.
It's a shame that to seek democratic legitimacy more and more power has been given to the Parliament (especially under Lisbon), but I think what's still lacking is relevance and a feeling of connection - hence low turnout.
Also I think it's a problem for Europe itself if the only democratic part of the EU is perhaps dooming itself to irrelevance.
Why is it a shame that the Parliament is getting more powers and to which party do you refer to?
I am not sure what can be done about it. Even if they are elected French president, there is nothing others can do about it.
Quote from: The Larch on March 23, 2014, 08:28:19 PM
I'm waiting for the day in which Duque admits that a bobo stole his girlfriend.
Even worse, they stole MY city, mon Paris! :mad: :lol:
Front National rising in France, the Progress Party in government in Norway. End. Nigh.
Quote from: Sheilbh on March 23, 2014, 08:06:26 PM
True and where they've done well they'll inevitably lose in the second round.
However that is from 0.9% and they've won some of their targets outright (ie. over 50%), in other areas like Avignon and Perpignan they've come first and in many others such as Marseille they've pushed the Socialists into third place.
The PS in Marseille has been weakened by severe corruption, even by Marseille standards, and there were a few leftish lists on the first round whereas the right was united b
Quote
As I say for me it's striking for two reasons. One is the parallel with Ukip which have also developed a local government base which is key in a party moving from just protest votes to a real organisational base. I think this particularly matters with the EU elections coming up. The second is that researchers in the UK have said that many of these populist right parties in Europe are actually drawing their support most from the traditional vote on the left. The FN are doing well now in old Socialist areas.
It'll be interesting to see the Euro-elections. The FN and Ukip have lead some polls at around 20-30%. The European Parliament could have two of her largest delegations won by declared Eurosceptics. Add in the polling of the VVD in the Netherlands and even the M5S in Italy (still in the low 20s) and I think there's a real problem that Europe needs to address. What's really striking is how these parties are, for the most part, rising in non-crisis countries so I'm not sure it's about the economic situation rather than something a bit deeper and more worrying.
Actually, the PS was only the main choice for the left vote for a short while, the communist party was it for far longer but then the transfer of votes between the PC and FN is pretty well documented. Georges Marchais, former Secretary General of the PCF till the '90s, was far from bobo orthodoxy on matters such as immigration (it has to be stopped) or even laïcité (no to
accommodements raisonnables).
QuoteThe socialists may call for a Front républicain against the FN but the right-wing is not interested anymore in proving the FN is right by showing the establishment unites against them cf. the
UMPS slogan, a portmanteau of UMP and PS, ie the conservatives or societalistes "socialists"
Quote from: Sheilbh on March 23, 2014, 08:06:26 PM
....That's a very brave policy, no?
Well, there is still the taboo of allying with the FN, so no worries, whereas the PS can ally with the the leftist Greens of course and Front de Gauche i.e Mélencon and his communists, leftist and whatever buddies.
Earlier on, Fillon former PM, said about PS vs FN run-offs to vote fnior the less sectarian which was seen as pro-FN by the left, so the "ni-ni" (no to PS no to FN) is pretty brave but not suicidely brave.
I don't know what a bobo is. Is that a Euroracist slur?
Quote from: Ideologue on March 24, 2014, 03:22:03 PM
I don't know what a bobo is. Is that a Euroracist slur?
Bohemian bourgeois; :frog: :bowler:
It's actually an American neologism coined by David brooks.
Oh. Well, I don't like them. Unless I'm one of them.
I liked Defending Your Life, anyway. :)
Quote from: Savonarola on March 24, 2014, 03:29:15 PM
It's actually an American neologism coined by David brooks.
Which is a big reason Duque's compulsive use of the term is so grating. :bleeding: :lol:
Quote from: alfred russel on March 23, 2014, 07:37:05 PM
Before we get Fireblade too excited, they only got 7% of the national vote in an election with record low turnout.
Yeah, don't we get one of these "shock" stories every 3 or 4 years?
Quote from: derspiess on March 24, 2014, 03:43:06 PM
Quote from: alfred russel on March 23, 2014, 07:37:05 PM
Before we get Fireblade too excited, they only got 7% of the national vote in an election with record low turnout.
Yeah, don't we get one of these "shock" stories every 3 or 4 years?
Yeah the FN scare stuff was big in the 90s for Godsake.
Quote from: Savonarola on March 24, 2014, 03:29:15 PM
Bohemian bourgeois; :frog: :bowler:
It's actually an American neologism coined by David brooks.
It's what you aspire to be Log.
I want a house and a wife and kids. That doesn't sound that bohemian.
I would prefer not to work for a living but to do something artier, but that could describe everybody.
Quote from: Ideologue on March 24, 2014, 03:48:46 PM
I want a house and a wife and kids. That doesn't sound that bohemian.
That's the bourgeois.
QuoteI would prefer not to work for a living but to do something artier, but that could describe everybody.
That's the bohemian.
:lol:
Fair enough. :lol:
:D
Quote from: Valmy on March 24, 2014, 03:46:48 PM
Quote from: derspiess on March 24, 2014, 03:43:06 PM
Quote from: alfred russel on March 23, 2014, 07:37:05 PM
Before we get Fireblade too excited, they only got 7% of the national vote in an election with record low turnout.
Yeah, don't we get one of these "shock" stories every 3 or 4 years?
Yeah the FN scare stuff was big in the 90s for Godsake.
Started in 1983 in Dreux, somewhat supported by Mitterrand to undermine the right-wing to divert attention from the PS switch to financial austerity. Bobos :P don't like to be reminded of it though ;)
Quote from: derspiess on March 24, 2014, 03:43:06 PM
Quote from: alfred russel on March 23, 2014, 07:37:05 PM
Before we get Fireblade too excited, they only got 7% of the national vote in an election with record low turnout.
Yeah, don't we get one of these "shock" stories every 3 or 4 years?
derspiess doesn't want to get his hopes up again. ^_^ But yeah, I particularly remember the SHOCK in 2002 when M. Le Pen won the first round.
Quote from: Capetan Mihali on March 24, 2014, 06:20:51 PM
Quote from: derspiess on March 24, 2014, 03:43:06 PM
Quote from: alfred russel on March 23, 2014, 07:37:05 PM
Before we get Fireblade too excited, they only got 7% of the national vote in an election with record low turnout.
Yeah, don't we get one of these "shock" stories every 3 or 4 years?
derspiess doesn't want to get his hopes up again. ^_^ But yeah, I particularly remember the SHOCK in 2002 when M. Le Pen won the first round.
That's when Fireblade Le Pen came into play indeed.
Quote from: The Larch on March 24, 2014, 04:32:40 AM
Why is it a shame that the Parliament is getting more powers and to which party do you refer to?
I think I forgot to finish that thought, sorry. It's a shame that more and more power has been given to the Parliament in the hope that that will increase democratic participation and legitimacy, while participation and legitimacy are still declining.
Even the latest wheeze of the EP elections choosing the Commission President. In theory an elected European Commission President could help engage citizens, but that's not what we've got. Instead we've got Schultz, Junker or Verhofstedt who aren't making anyone more interested in voting and they may not even be the most effective Presidents.
I remember about ten years ago when people said that the EU should focus on legitimacy by results - the Europe of results was a phrase I remember. But I don't know if that's there any more. The crisis doesn't look like a positive European result, or like it's being dealt with and even new member states aren't converging like they used to.
It seems a real problem to me if Europe isn't able to draw legitimacy from its success, or from popular participation and support. If there's no results and anemic popular support, then what's left? A Europe of Erasmus parties? :lol:
QuoteWell, there is still the taboo of allying with the FN, so no worries, whereas the PS can ally with the the leftist Greens of course and Front de Gauche i.e Mélencon and his communists, leftist and whatever buddies.
That seems rather less taboo though. From outside it looks like in recent years the UMP and Sarko especially were trying to steal the FN's language, voters and occasionally policies.
QuoteYeah, don't we get one of these "shock" stories every 3 or 4 years?
Sort of. It's not shock necessarily but worry growing over these last four years.
But I think this time it's different :lol:
I think Jean-Marie Le Pen was a great performer but the FN was only really about him and I think they collapsed a little before he retired. I think there is a comparison to Poujade but in Fifth Republican Presidential elections.
Marine seems to be building a party which is a little more worrying, and is working to make that party more respectable. She took over in 2010. Since then they've had their best ever vote in a Presidential election, their second best in a legislative election (though that won them most seats). They're likely to go from sixth in the European elections, winning around 7%, to possibly first or second with around 20%. And she's outpolling Hollande.
To take these elections what's striking is how the FN have seen turnout in areas they're competing increase. There's 36 000 municipalities in France, the FN competed in 560. From that they won 5% nationwide. What's also interesting is that where the FN stood turnout was higher. I think nationwide it was in the low 60s (from an English perspective, still remarkable), the areas they targeted have turnouts over 65%
For me it's not necessarily about the FN. It's this rising this populist right and in some places far-right is a European trend (and has been growing since the 80s) and it's one that worries me. How are our political systems, across Europe, failing this much? Can we fix it? Or are the older, working class voters (who, in the UK are supporting a neo-Thatcherite ex-stock broker, in Italy a comedian, in France a Le Pen and in Germany fiercely respectable professors) just 21st century Luddites and coal miners?
Though I do actually worry about Greece. Golden Dawn are still polling about 10% despite many in the party being arrested for a politically motivated murder. The leading party in the polls is the far-left radicals in SYRIZA. I remember the Golden Dawn politician who predicted they wouldn't win this election but the one after a SYRIZA government.
QuoteIt's what you aspire to be Log.
It really isn't. At least as Brooks described it or as I've seen it in use since.
QuoteStarted in 1983 in Dreux, somewhat supported by Mitterrand to undermine the right-wing to divert attention from the PS switch to financial austerity. Bobos :P don't like to be reminded of it though ;)
There's a new English language biography of Mitterrand that's apparently excellent :mmm: :w00t:
Quote from: Duque de Bragança on March 24, 2014, 06:08:32 PM
Started in 1983 in Dreux, somewhat supported by Mitterrand to undermine the right-wing to divert attention from the PS switch to financial austerity. Bobos :P don't like to be reminded of it though ;)
Surely Mitterand's devotion to Vichy and Henri Petain is embarrassing enough for them.
Quote from: Valmy on March 24, 2014, 08:13:17 PM
Quote from: Duque de Bragança on March 24, 2014, 06:08:32 PM
Started in 1983 in Dreux, somewhat supported by Mitterrand to undermine the right-wing to divert attention from the PS switch to financial austerity. Bobos :P don't like to be reminded of it though ;)
Surely Mitterand's devotion to Vichy and Henri Petain is embarrassing enough for them.
Also the still heavily Front Populaire-influenced chambers that gave full constituent powers to Maréchal Pétain.
On a brighter note and back to topic, Hidalgo appeals to EU citizens, for instance "British"
http://www.france24.com/en/20140321-anne-hidalgo-paris-mayor-election-appeal-vote-english/ (http://www.france24.com/en/20140321-anne-hidalgo-paris-mayor-election-appeal-vote-english/)
http://www.dailymotion.com/video/x1ip0x2_aux-britanniques-qui-vivent-a-paris-vote-for-paris_news (http://www.dailymotion.com/video/x1ip0x2_aux-britanniques-qui-vivent-a-paris-vote-for-paris_news)
QuoteAnne Hidalgo, the Socialist candidate who is odds-on to become the next mayor of Paris, has released multilingual appeals for foreigners living in the city to get out and vote in Sunday's local elections. See videos below.
Hidalgo, who has been deputy to Socialist city leader Bertrand Delanoë since 2001, is polling slightly ahead of her conservative rival Nathalie Kosciusko-Morizet, with an IFOP poll on Thursday giving her a four-point lead.
And in her bid to get the vote from foreigners living in the city – EU nationals living in France are entitled to vote in local elections – Hidalgo has repeated her appeal to vote in English, Italian, Portuguese and Spanish (she speaks the latter fluently).
Her English isn't quite so clear, however. "On Sunday you are deciding the future of Paris," she says in a halting, heavy French accent. The video is addressed to "the British", indicating that her media team appears to have forgotten Paris's large Irish community.
"I'm counting on you. Vote in your district for a Paris that dares (FRANCE 24 had a bit of trouble deciphering the last word)."
ANNE HIDALGO APPEALS TO BRITONS LIVING IN PARIS TO VOTE FOR HER
The ballot, which will be decided by the newly elected 193 city councillors representing the city's 20 districts, is likely to go through to a second round on March 30 because neither Hidalgo nor Kosciusko-Morizet, known in France by her initials NKM, are likely to get more than 50 percent in the first round.
Hidalgo, who was born in Spain and moved to Paris with her family when she was two years old, made a more fluent appeal to Spanish voters.
Curiously, the French article on France24 has not the same tone :hmm: