I'm skeptical. :hmm:
(https://languish.org/forums/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Fi.dailymail.co.uk%2Fi%2Fpix%2F2013%2F12%2F25%2Farticle-0-1A4A12B100000578-708_634x397.jpg&hash=9bb1fd2ec9910ff65d217f8e0dbdcf56209d2902)
Eventually, China loses their competitive advantages due to being poor and has to slow growth. Though perhaps that won't happen until after they pass us(we'd still have 4x the GDP per capita, after all).
I find it fishy that France is forecasted to fall from the top ten by its longtime rival, who in the same breath gloats about how they'll finally overtake those naughty jerries.
I am also dubious of Brazil and Mexico's future.
I'm bullish on Mexico and skeptical on Brazil. Five years ago it was the other way around.
Quote from: MadImmortalMan on January 08, 2014, 06:22:12 AM
I'm bullish on Mexico and skeptical on Brazil. Five years ago it was the other way around.
Because Colorado legalized pot? There's still plenty of other states to fund Mexican criminals. :hmm:
France. :nelson:
That we beat them is all that matters.
I can't find a suitably smug smilie sadly :(
Interesting that they forecast such large growth for Japan.
QuoteI'm bullish on Mexico and skeptical on Brazil. Five years ago it was the other way around.
I recall reading an article a few days ago that spoke of BRICs being yesterdays news and MINTs being the new big thing. :shrug:
QuoteI find it fishy that France is forecasted to fall from the top ten by its longtime rival, who in the same breath gloats about how they'll finally overtake those naughty jerries.
I am also dubious of Brazil and Mexico's future.
This isn't Britain doing the forecasting. Britain overtaking Germany is quite widely predicted due to the UK's population growth and Germany's population decline.
I've no clue what happened to France here.
Quote from: Peter Wiggin on January 08, 2014, 06:26:35 AM
Quote from: MadImmortalMan on January 08, 2014, 06:22:12 AM
I'm bullish on Mexico and skeptical on Brazil. Five years ago it was the other way around.
Because Colorado legalized pot? There's still plenty of other states to fund Mexican criminals. :hmm:
Mendocino County still grows enough to supply six or seven Colorados.
I'm going to the launch of the World Economic Forum's Global Risks 2014 report next week, I'll report back.
Also: Daily Fail again? :bleeding:
Quote from: Tyr on January 08, 2014, 06:29:00 AM
This isn't Britain doing the forecasting. Britain overtaking Germany is quite widely predicted due to the UK's population growth and Germany's population decline.
The last years Germany's population grew due to net migration overcompensating excess deaths.
That table also assumes that Britain's economy grows at nearly three times the pace of Germany's economy.
Quote from: Zanza on January 08, 2014, 07:15:47 AM
Quote from: Tyr on January 08, 2014, 06:29:00 AM
This isn't Britain doing the forecasting. Britain overtaking Germany is quite widely predicted due to the UK's population growth and Germany's population decline.
The last years Germany's population grew due to net migration overcompensating excess deaths.
That table also assumes that Britain's economy grows at nearly three times the pace of Germany's economy.
it also assumes that britain still exists by then :p
For India to roughly quadruple during that time period, they would have to grow at an annual pace of 9.5% or so. They are nowhere near that growth.
UK growth of over 3% uninterrupted for 15 years sounds really unlikely, no matter how many immigrants arrive.
Mexico from what?! What's the industry producing so much income for them?!
Tourism, oil, cars, electronics and shitty soap operas.
There's a lot of wealth in Mexico, actually. Problem is there's even more poverty.
Like China. Only in NAFTA.
It's important to remember amongst the beancounting and growth projections that Mexico and Brazil are culturally disinclined to success and as inferior nations will stumble and collapse where their betters might show initiative, or even mere stability.
Quote from: Grey Fox on January 08, 2014, 07:49:47 AM
Mexico from what?! What's the industry producing so much income for them?!
Despite the Drug War, they are currently ranked 14th in nominal GDP, and 9th in GDP PPP!
Quote from: jimmy olsen on January 08, 2014, 08:05:46 AM
Quote from: Grey Fox on January 08, 2014, 07:49:47 AM
Mexico from what?! What's the industry producing so much income for them?!
Despite the Drug War, they are currently ranked 14th in nominal GDP, and 9th in GDP PPP!
Wow, those cartel are pretty good a producing money, eh.
Quote from: Grey Fox on January 08, 2014, 08:34:44 AM
Quote from: jimmy olsen on January 08, 2014, 08:05:46 AM
Quote from: Grey Fox on January 08, 2014, 07:49:47 AM
Mexico from what?! What's the industry producing so much income for them?!
Despite the Drug War, they are currently ranked 14th in nominal GDP, and 9th in GDP PPP!
Wow, those cartel are pretty good a producing money, eh.
As long as GDP includes the G, yes. :D
Quote from: Zanza on January 08, 2014, 07:32:30 AM
For India to roughly quadruple during that time period, they would have to grow at an annual pace of 9.5% or so. They are nowhere near that growth.
I think the report in question did not adjust the figures for inflation, which is why the figures for 2028 look so high.
Quote from: Iormlund on January 08, 2014, 07:47:52 AM
UK growth of over 3% uninterrupted for 15 years sounds really unlikely, no matter how many immigrants arrive.
And when you consider that they'll most likely not grow at the necessary 3.3% in the next two or three years, they'll have to grow even faster later.
Guys, it gets worse. In 2113, China's economy would be 45 times as large as US economy.
Quote from: Richard Hakluyt on January 08, 2014, 10:24:25 AM
Quote from: Zanza on January 08, 2014, 07:32:30 AM
For India to roughly quadruple during that time period, they would have to grow at an annual pace of 9.5% or so. They are nowhere near that growth.
I think the report in question did not adjust the figures for inflation, which is why the figures for 2028 look so high.
That makes things a bit more sensible.
It just seems bizzare Japan would suddenly grow so much.
Used hotpants. Jesus Christ.
India seems totally unrealistic. 15 years is a long, long time to keep up that bullish a rate.
The actual report is here http://www.cebr.com/reports/cebr-world-economic-league-table/
Economists can't predict accurately what will happen in the next 15 months, let alone 15 years. You might as well read tea leaves to predict the outcome.