QuoteAngela Merkel celebrates after German election
Angela Merkel has urged her party to celebrate "a super result" after exit polls suggested she was set to win a third term as German chancellor.
Her Christian Democrats took about 42% of the vote, according to exit polls.
But Mrs Merkel's preferred coalition is at risk, as her Free Democrat partners appear not have secured the 5% needed to enter parliament.
She may, therefore, be forced to seek a grand coalition with the Social Democrats - estimated to have won 26%.
Exit polls for ARD public television put the liberal Free Democrats (FDP) on 4.7%, which if confirmed would be a disaster for the junior coalition partner, leaving it with no national representation in parliament.
Senior party member Christian Lindner called it "the bitterest hour".
The FDP was beaten by the Green Party (8%) and the former communist Left Party (8.5%), and even, according to exit polls, the new Alternative fuer Deutschland, which advocates withdrawal from the euro currency and took 4.9%, just short of the parliamentary threshold.
There was some speculation on German television that the Christian Democrats (CDU) might even win enough seats for an absolute majority - the first in half a century - if both the FDP and AfD fail to make it into parliament.
'Something fantastic'
Mrs Merkel addressed jubilant supporters at CDU headquarters, telling them: "This is a super result."
"We can celebrate tonight because we have done something fantastic."
But, in a reference to coalition building, she said it was "too early to say exactly what we'll do".
"We have a clear mandate from voters to form a government," said Volker Kauder, leader of the CDU's parliamentary group. The outcome showed that "voters want Angela Merkel to remain chancellor" for a third term, he said.
Mrs Merkel has made clear she would be prepared to work with the Social Democrats (SPD) in a grand coalition, as she did in 2005-09.
The SPD has been more reluctant to consider linking up with the CDU again. The party leader, Peer Steinbrueck, was finance minister in the previous grand coalition, but has said he would not serve in such a government again.
After the exit polls were released, but before official results were confirmed, Mr Steinbrueck conceded that it would be up to Mrs Merkel to decide how to proceed saying: "The ball is in Mrs Merkel's court. She has to get herself a majority."
The BBC's Chris Morris, at Social Democrat headquarters, said Mr Steinbrueck was putting a brave face on it but the atmosphere was subdued.
The SPD would have preferred to enter a coalition with the Green Party, but does not appear to have the votes to do so, and has ruled out a three-way alliance including the Left Party (Die Linke).
Analysts think the SPD will probably agree to a coalition with the CDU.
Turnout appeared to be higher than at the last federal election. At 14:00 (12:00 GMT) it measured 41.4% of eligible voters, compared to 36.1% at the same point in 2009.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-24197994
The current estimates suggest that Merkel could have just barely won an absolute majority of seats in parliament. That would be the first time since the historic 1957 triumph of Konrad Adenauer that one party can rule without a coalition in Germany.
(https://languish.org/forums/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.gsoranje.nl%2Farchives%2Fimages%2Fjuichmerkel.gif&hash=01354421c3ecb672115cdd3fec9e15019b034e3f)
By far Europe's most impressive leader (at least of the big countries), it's well deserved..
Did her decision to go against nuclear power help kill off the Greens? Because they look like they're having a torrid night.
Edit: And Jenkins' rule continues. The left's biggest problem is its inability to stay united.
Quote from: Sheilbh on September 22, 2013, 12:53:38 PMDid her decision to go against nuclear power help kill off the Greens? Because they look like they're having a torrid night.
I think it's also in part that in the early 80s, the Greens supported freedom for prosecution for pedophiles (which they put on practically the same level as homosexuals) and that a number of current Green big shots were already actively in the party when it was part of their program.
Ms. Urkel did a great job of matching the furniture.
Quote from: Syt on September 22, 2013, 01:49:52 PM
Quote from: Sheilbh on September 22, 2013, 12:53:38 PMDid her decision to go against nuclear power help kill off the Greens? Because they look like they're having a torrid night.
I think it's also in part that in the early 80s, the Greens supported freedom for prosecution for pedophiles (which they put on practically the same level as homosexuals) and that a number of current Green big shots were already actively in the party when it was part of their program.
Or 49% tax for incomes above 60.000 Euro. They should perhaps have read an analysis of their voter's income before making such a policy statement.
Quote from: Sheilbh on September 22, 2013, 12:53:38 PM
Did her decision to go against nuclear power help kill off the Greens? Because they look like they're having a torrid night.
It certainly removed an important topic from German politics. People fear nuclear power, but don't really care for coal power or climate change. So the whole renewable energy thing the Greens promote has nowhere near the pull of the anti-nuclear movement.
Quote from: Sheilbh on September 22, 2013, 12:53:38 PM
By far Europe's most impressive leader (at least of the big countries), it's well deserved..
Being a giant amid a group of pygmies is not a great achievement.
Quote from: Syt on September 22, 2013, 01:49:52 PM
Quote from: Sheilbh on September 22, 2013, 12:53:38 PMDid her decision to go against nuclear power help kill off the Greens? Because they look like they're having a torrid night.
I think it's also in part that in the early 80s, the Greens supported freedom for prosecution for pedophiles (which they put on practically the same level as homosexuals) and that a number of current Green big shots were already actively in the party when it was part of their program.
:yucky:
Quote from: Sheilbh on September 22, 2013, 12:53:38 PM
By far Europe's most impressive leader (at least of the big countries), it's well deserved.
She's the thinnest kid at Fat Camp, certainly.
Quote from: Zanza on September 22, 2013, 01:59:05 PM
Quote from: Syt on September 22, 2013, 01:49:52 PM
Quote from: Sheilbh on September 22, 2013, 12:53:38 PMDid her decision to go against nuclear power help kill off the Greens? Because they look like they're having a torrid night.
I think it's also in part that in the early 80s, the Greens supported freedom for prosecution for pedophiles (which they put on practically the same level as homosexuals) and that a number of current Green big shots were already actively in the party when it was part of their program.
Or 49% tax for incomes above 60.000 Euro. They should perhaps have read an analysis of their voter's income before making such a policy statement.
Last but not least, the vegetarian or even vegan weeklyday (wtf?) for kids at state school canteens, despite the already widespread vegetarianism in Teutonia.
We need more women in power.
I love this:
http://wahl.tagesschau.de/wahlen/2013-09-22-BT-DE/analyse-wanderung.shtml#11_Wanderung_UNION
Interesting how AfD did pretty well at attracting votes from left and right. Also I'd love to speak to one of the people who went FDP-Left :blink:
I love the politicians' comments, they seem so perfectly German. I can just hear Merkel's intonation of "super." And all the pathos summoned up in "the bitterest hour." :weep:
The FDP is not in parliament for the first time in post-war Germany. It's not surprising; over the past decades it had become little more than an annex of the CDU on a federal level and, since the 90s, ruled out coalitions with anyone else.
It looked for a while as if Merkel might gain more than half the seats in parliament, but it turns out she's 5 shy. She can now pick her coalition partner from Greens or SPD (with the SPD being much more likely), though I guess theoretically a minority government might work just as well.
Quote from: Capetan Mihali on September 22, 2013, 08:03:35 PM
I love the politicians' comments, they seem so perfectly German. I can just hear Merkel's intonation of "super." And all the pathos summoned up in "the bitterest hour." :weep:
Uber! :w00t:
Quote from: Syt on September 22, 2013, 10:32:28 PM
It looked for a while as if Merkel might gain more than half the seats in parliament, but it turns out she's 20 shy. She can now pick her coalition partner from Greens or SPD (with the SPD being much more likely), though I guess theoretically a minority government might work just as well.
Any particular reason the Greens/SPD/The Left people couldn't form a government? Are the Socialists too establishement for the Greens and do not praise the memory of Erich Honecker enough for the ex-Commies?
Quote from: Valmy on September 22, 2013, 11:01:53 PM
Quote from: Syt on September 22, 2013, 10:32:28 PM
It looked for a while as if Merkel might gain more than half the seats in parliament, but it turns out she's 20 shy. She can now pick her coalition partner from Greens or SPD (with the SPD being much more likely), though I guess theoretically a minority government might work just as well.
Any particular reason the Greens/SPD/The Left people couldn't form a government? Are the Socialists too establishement for the Greens and do not praise the memory of Erich Honecker enough for the ex-Commies?
I think no one wants to go with The Left - they still carry the stigma of being the heirs of the SED, and they're too left/state socialist for the other parties.
Btw, a map showing where The Left gets their votes:
(https://languish.org/forums/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Fs10.postimg.org%2F9eftgldsp%2Flinke.gif&hash=bb3bf3543e060d821876228c0ed1c0db85792b47)
And two maps, showing which party won the direct mandate (left) and the party vote (right) - you have two votes; one for a direct candidate, one for a party list.
(https://languish.org/forums/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Fs23.postimg.org%2Fgxu7ais5n%2Fcdu.gif&hash=822a1dd0f8a13edcae0cbc8c533c03d78a160779)
Comment by a guy in the German politics thread in the German forum on P'dox: "Now there's only social democrat/leftist parties left in parliament. I wonder where this will lead." :unsure:
Quote from: Syt on September 22, 2013, 11:28:08 PM
Comment by a guy in the German politics thread in the German forum on P'dox: "Now there's only social democrat/leftist parties left in parliament. I wonder where this will lead." :unsure:
Well they are the Christian Democrats and everybody knows Jesus was a socialist.
Give unto Caesar anything he wants.
Quote from: Syt on September 22, 2013, 10:32:28 PM
The FDP is not in parliament for the first time in post-war Germany. It's not surprising; over the past decades it had become little more than an annex of the CDU on a federal level and, since the 90s, ruled out coalitions with anyone else.
Why is it not surprising? To an outsider simply looking at previous election results it's very surprising - they've gone from their highest ever vote share in 2009 to their lowest ever in 2013.
How did they fuck up that badly over the last four years?
The FDP relies very much on votes "loaned" by CDU voters. In 2009, there was a massive boost to the number of these votes to end the coalition between CDU and SPD.
Even the current abysmal showing of the FDP does not properly reflect their true clientel. Polls showed, that only 40% of the FDP votes actuelly came from true FDP supporters. 55% came from the CDU, 5% from supportes of various other parties.
It's a classic "secondary vote party" in many of the recent elections, where you have a party you want to be in power, but don't want them without a coalition partner, so you cast your primary vote on your preferred party, and the secondary to the one you would like to see in coalition with them.
If only Merkel would smash the Poles. :cry:
Quote from: Syt on September 22, 2013, 11:18:15 PM
Btw, a map showing where The Left gets their votes:
Unified Germany maps still give me the heebie-jeebies. GET IT HEEBIES ITS A GAG SON
Now I feel like playing Die Macher.
Good for Merkel, well deserved. I was hoping she'd win, though she won't get the coalition she wanted.
I do like the black map color for the Christian Democrats.
Quote from: Syt on September 22, 2013, 11:28:08 PM
Comment by a guy in the German politics thread in the German forum on P'dox: "Now there's only social democrat/leftist parties left in parliament. I wonder where this will lead." :unsure:
The SPD hasn't been a social democratic party in years.
Quote from: CountDeMoney on September 23, 2013, 08:29:09 AM
Unified Germany maps still give me the heebie-jeebies. GET IT HEEBIES ITS A GAG SON
What do you have against the Jeebies? :(
Quote from: The Minsky Moment on September 23, 2013, 11:52:56 AM
Quote from: Syt on September 22, 2013, 11:28:08 PM
Comment by a guy in the German politics thread in the German forum on P'dox: "Now there's only social democrat/leftist parties left in parliament. I wonder where this will lead." :unsure:
The SPD hasn't been a social democratic party in years.
They went way left for this election. Nowhere near the Schröder SPD.
Not sure about the details, but the gist of this analysis of party programs is probably correct:
(https://languish.org/forums/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Fimages.zeit.de%2Fpolitik%2Fdeutschland%2F2013-09%2Flinks-rechts%2FRechts-Links_LINIEN_k.jpg&hash=e6b8969c128f5cbf41f1dea0c97ad4d187650c69)
Quote from: Valmy on September 22, 2013, 11:01:53 PM
Quote from: Syt on September 22, 2013, 10:32:28 PM
It looked for a while as if Merkel might gain more than half the seats in parliament, but it turns out she's 20 shy. She can now pick her coalition partner from Greens or SPD (with the SPD being much more likely), though I guess theoretically a minority government might work just as well.
Any particular reason the Greens/SPD/The Left people couldn't form a government? Are the Socialists too establishement for the Greens and do not praise the memory of Erich Honecker enough for the ex-Commies?
The right wing of the Social Democrats (maybe like your "Blue Dogs" Democrats) has zero common ground with the left wing of the Left Party (a real Communist Party). And the "Realo" faction of the Greens would rather go into a coalition with the Conservatives too.
There are obviously people in all parties that promote such a coalition, but at least among the top personnel they seem to be a minority or at least not very vocal.
There's a shocker. The party in the centre wins big :o
Quote from: Sheilbh on September 23, 2013, 12:26:54 PM
There's a shocker. The party in the centre wins big :o
It always pays to simply be the least objectionable.
Moving that far to the center opens space for a legitimate party right of the CDU. That was unthinkable during the history of the Federal Republic so far and all parties right of the CDU were generally considered neo-fascist. However this election a new party established itself and almost made it to parliament: the "Alternative für Deutschland", a tame, German version of the UKIP, that is anti-euro and has market liberal and conservative viewpoints and could eventually cost the CDU a lot of votes on their right wing. It remains to be seen if that party establishes itself as an accepted party on the right of the political spectrum or if it drifts towards the other neo-fascist parties such as the "National Democrats".
Surely that would normally have been the FDP?
But I think it's inevitable. The Euro needs more and more integration to survive. There'll be non-extreme opposition to that, especially when every other party, broadly, supports that vision of Europe as a key part of Germany's identity. It's also I think understandable if there's broad agreement then an insurgent party can gather votes by being the only party saying the unthinkable.
I'd expect all Eurozone countries to get mainstream Eurosceptic parties soon, especially given how much trust in the EU is declining.
Quote from: Valmy on September 23, 2013, 12:28:03 PM
It always pays to simply be the least objectionable.
Merkel is the quintessential non-objectionable politician. The best known election poster was this:
(https://languish.org/forums/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.aljazeera.com%2Fmritems%2Fimagecache%2F218%2F330%2Fmritems%2FImages%2F2013%2F9%2F20%2F2013920125018503734_20.jpg&hash=92803ea1399f5271fe504671d52b1daeded54d40)
Might not tell you much, but every German can easily tell that's her standard hand gesture and the message of the poster was really just "vote for what you know". Or as her political idol Konrad Adenauer once said on election posters "No experiments".
Merkel has no big agenda beyond perpetuating the status quo. My impression of her has been that her politics are reactive, not pro-active. She's good in a crisis, but she's very reluctant to do anything that would rock the boat at home. She's good at gauging public opinion and appeasing it.
Quote from: Sheilbh on September 23, 2013, 12:37:45 PM
Surely that would normally have been the FDP?
But I think it's inevitable. The Euro needs more and more integration to survive. There'll be non-extreme opposition to that, especially when every other party, broadly, supports that vision of Europe as a key part of Germany's identity. It's also I think understandable if there's broad agreement then an insurgent party can gather votes by being the only party saying the unthinkable.
I'd expect all Eurozone countries to get mainstream Eurosceptic parties soon, especially given how much trust in the EU is declining.
The FDP was not always right of the CDU. It surely was more market liberal and in the last 30 years moved against the social state, but it was always considerably more progressive in policy issues such as equal rights, privacy protection, the role of the church etc. And the FDP was certainly always in favor of European integration.
Let's see if the AfD can keep up their success and establish itself or if is just an anecdote of this particular election. There have been many protest parties in Germany and some of them occasionally had success on the state level, but since 1957 we have only seen five different parties in parliament on the federal level.
Quote from: Zanza on September 23, 2013, 12:45:01 PM
Let's see if the AfD can keep up their success and establish itself or if is just an anecdote of this particular election. There have been many protest parties in Germany and some of them occasionally had success on the state level, but since 1957 we have only seen five different parties in parliament on the federal level.
True enough. If they run I'd guess the Euro elections next year could be a good chance for them to get their actual breakthrough.
But almost 5% and 15 000 members seems like a very solid start for a party that's under a year old.
Quote from: Syt on September 23, 2013, 12:44:26 PM
Merkel has no big agenda beyond perpetuating the status quo. My impression of her has been that her politics are reactive, not pro-active. She's good in a crisis, but she's very reluctant to do anything that would rock the boat at home. She's good at gauging public opinion and appeasing it.
What's interesting is that she had a quite reformist agenda when she was first elected in 2005, but somehow - despite having majorities to push through big changes - she never got around. Germany has not had a major reform since the 2003 "Agenda 2010" of Gerhard Schröder.
Merkel hasn't really fixed federalism, education, pensions, healthcare, taxes, low wage labor market etc. - all of which can and should certainly be improved.
Instead she spends way too much time squabbling about nonsense such as the "Betreuungsgeld" where parents that take care of their children at home instead of sending them to kindergarten get money from the state or the next silly topic by the Bavarians, a general toll on our motorways.
Was it perhaps the experience of the 2005 election that scared her out of bold policy agendas?
Although even if it was it doesn't seem to go with her political temperament anyway :mellow:
Quote from: Sheilbh on September 23, 2013, 12:50:05 PM
True enough. If they run I'd guess the Euro elections next year could be a good chance for them to get their actual breakthrough.
But almost 5% and 15 000 members seems like a very solid start for a party that's under a year old.
The EP elections next year will almost certainly see them back as Germany no longer has the 5% threshold for EP elections, which means you need to win just a bit more than 1% of the votes to win a seat in Germany (96 seats total). With the current election result 9-10 German parties would get seats (CDU, SPD, Left, Greens, CSU, FDP, AfD, Pirates, NPD, perhaps Independents).
Quote from: Sheilbh on September 23, 2013, 12:54:40 PM
Was it perhaps the experience of the 2005 election that scared her out of bold policy agendas?
Although even if it was it doesn't seem to go with her political temperament anyway :mellow:
Her political temperament is certainly to wait and gauge public opinion and different policies before she makes a step forward and then repeat that and make the next step.
That said, she is an extremely intelligent and skilled politician and will do whatever needs to be done to stay in power. If a reformist agenda helps her with that, she would adopt it. But right now, that's not really the case.
That's fair but normally the best time to pass reforms is before the need for them becomes glaringly obvious. And if you do pass them you won't necessarily see the benefits - see Schroeder.
Agreed. I hope she does them this legislative period. But her silly Bavarian junior partner already starts with bullshit proposals again instead of serious policy issues. Let's see.
The argument could me made that she expended political capital in maintaining the euro and propping up the dead beats.
Not really. Foreign policy in Germany is very consensual, including the Euro policy of the last few years. She could always be sure to get like 75-80% approval on her Euro policies in parliament.
Hmmm. I always got the impression she was swimming upstream against public opinion.
Quote from: Admiral Yi on September 23, 2013, 02:18:08 PM
Hmmm. I always got the impression she was swimming upstream against public opinion.
Against public opinion, but, generally, with the qualified support of the SPD. This is another reason I think there may be a market for a Eurosceptic party in Germany.
This would be an area I think she's failed as a leader. I think she's not really confronted people with the reality and she's not been bold enough. The Euro still exists because of Mario Draghi. Europe's leaders nationally and in the Commission haven't convinced.
Could someone convince me this is positive? Merkel's austerity policies are probably by this point a greater fuckup than letting unreformed southern European nations was in the first place.
In those terms its an inconsequential result. I don't think anyone was proposing a significantly different Eurozone policy.
Of course a lot of decisions were delayed until after the German election, so it'll be interesting to see what happens now.
She could actually have more political options now because her two potential coalition partners are both more open to supporting growth measures in Europe or collateralizing liability than the FDP was.
Quote from: Queequeg on September 23, 2013, 03:43:40 PM
Could someone convince me this is positive? Merkel's austerity policies are probably by this point a greater fuckup than letting unreformed southern European nations was in the first place.
The only measure I can point to as an unmitigated bad move was setting Greece's "sustainable" debt level way too fucking high.
Presumably you think there's more bad than that. Would you care to elaborate?
Quote from: Zanza on September 23, 2013, 03:52:49 PM
She could actually have more political options now because her two potential coalition partners are both more open to supporting growth measures in Europe or collateralizing liability than the FDP was.
Also I suppose the SPD and Greens would have to be responsible if they were in government. They couldn't behave as they might in opposition.
My impression was that Merkel "led from behind" on austerity; IIRC Germany never really followed through on all the spending cut proposals in the 2010-11 austerian bonfire of vanities.
I also think she did the best she could to manage support for southern Europe. Unfortuantely, the drip-drip support arguably was the worst of both worlds.
I've been reading about the economic policies of the 3rd Reich (http://www.amazon.com/gp/product/B008DR6YXO/ref=oh_d__o04_details_o04__i00?ie=UTF8&psc=1), and combined with the Weimar history, I finally understand why these people are doing what they are doing.
There isn't a Soviet Union to keep up with now though, and the West are allies.
Wonderful book. Basically, the Nazis were just the same as the soviets on most economic things---with war as the excuse. It also gives a lot of insight on why Hitler needed to go to war when he did.
I was under the impression (perhaps mistaken) that the Reich was so in the red from their massive rearmament program and domestic spending that they needed to loot Europe like the Romans to keep the economy going.
Quote from: MadImmortalMan on September 24, 2013, 02:32:50 AM
I've been reading about the economic policies of the 3rd Reich (http://www.amazon.com/gp/product/B008DR6YXO/ref=oh_d__o04_details_o04__i00?ie=UTF8&psc=1), and combined with the Weimar history, I finally understand why these people are doing what they are doing.
There isn't a Soviet Union to keep up with now though, and the West are allies.
Wonderful book. Basically, the Nazis were just the same as the soviets on most economic things---with war as the excuse. It also gives a lot of insight on why Hitler needed to go to war when he did.
Have you read the Richard Evans Third Reich books? Good stuff.
Quote from: MadImmortalMan on September 24, 2013, 02:32:50 AM
Basically, the Nazis were just the same as the soviets on most economic things---with war as the excuse. It also gives a lot of insight on why Hitler needed to go to war when he did.
Once you put your economy into what is essentially a war production footing, it's got to go somewhere.
Quote from: MadImmortalMan on September 24, 2013, 02:32:50 AM
I've been reading about the economic policies of the 3rd Reich (http://www.amazon.com/gp/product/B008DR6YXO/ref=oh_d__o04_details_o04__i00?ie=UTF8&psc=1), and combined with the Weimar history, I finally understand why these people are doing what they are doing.
There isn't a Soviet Union to keep up with now though, and the West are allies.
Wonderful book. Basically, the Nazis were just the same as the soviets on most economic things---with war as the excuse. It also gives a lot of insight on why Hitler needed to go to war when he did.
Great book.
Too bad slargos isn't around so we can recommend it to him. ;)
Quote from: jimmy olsen on September 24, 2013, 04:05:06 AM
I was under the impression (perhaps mistaken) that the Reich was so in the red from their massive rearmament program and domestic spending that they needed to loot Europe like the Romans to keep the economy going.
They could have brought the economy back into reasonable balance by slowing down the arms buildup. That is what Schacht (the architect of the prewar recovery) recommended. Of course, Hitler chose a different approach.
OTOH, the Nazis never put the entire economy on a war footing the way the US did.
Quote from: dps on September 24, 2013, 10:18:07 AM
OTOH, the Nazis never put the entire economy on a war footing the way the US did.
Kind of a myth according to Evans, they went from incompetent management to having B-24s and Lancasters fucking their shit up.
USAF and Bomber Command did to Germany what Evans did to David Irving.
That's.....that's bad right? Irving was the apologist?
Btw, the first African-born member of parliament in Germany:
(https://languish.org/forums/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.allmystery.de%2Fi%2Ft4433a4_karamba-diaby-540x304.jpg&hash=8faa42ebca4e812e2ab6049cc3d1ef3a2a5da856)
Karamba Diaby, born in Senegal.
Ay ay ay!