Poll
Are you positive she's a woman?
I want to believe that's a still from a German murder mystery show and he's the hard-boiled detective in it.
He is no Stefan Derrick, Der Alte, Matula or Schimanski, so I'll pass. :P
She screams blonde/German Rachel Maddow to me. :P
Also voted bubbles...but of course, that is most likely going to be the Greenie party.
Thanks, that's good to hear.
From everything I've read Soder seemed the far better/more compelling candidate. I know Laschet won the election as CDU leader, but why did they choose him as Chancellor-candidate? What counted against Soder? Just Bavarian-ness?
Also the CSU may be the "sister" of the CDU, but it is hardly the most harmonious relation. Also, there are legitimate doubts about Söders personality. He is an untrustworthy backstabber...
I believe they'd previously been junior partners with the SPD in the past, so probably them and/or Linke?
Remember, it was a German-speaking dog lover who finally killed Hitler.
Seriously.
A common misconception. He spoke Austrian.
Za Fuhrer neva said "baby!"
(https://cbsnews1.cbsistatic.com/hub/i/r/2011/02/15/c70ff5cb-a642-11e2-a3f0-029118418759/thumbnail/620x465/02f125dfa4edfa3f63f649dca801ee59/AP67010113058.jpg)
Not my experience with most (but not all) Canadian Greens.
Yeah, those 11% are mind boggling.
Denying climate change is not a thing in the major parties in the UK - in fact Johnson's announced a new UK target to cut emissions by 78% by 2035, which is, I think, what Labour proposed at the last election.
In practical terms yes, officially no.
John Milius tried to warn us. :P
(https://m.media-amazon.com/images/M/MV5BYjY5MTI1YjgtYzEyMy00MWY3LThhYTEtMmIyZDFhMGZlMmIxXkEyXkFqcGdeQXVyMTAxODYyODI@._V1_.jpg)
not a chance we should take
The Germans will take it for you.
Btw, who is Sonstige?
I don't get it. Where's the authoritarian populism? Where's the deranged ranting that becomes a mainstream political position?
Well, they lost my vote.
I think Brexit showed it's difficult and, on the right, Hungary and Poland show you don't need to leave to pass that agenda (with EU funding largely intact). See the difference between Salvini who plays up old-school Euroscepticism, especially about the Euro, and Meloni, who doesn't. Most seem to focus on, at most, leaving the Euro.
... These left wingers do know the USSR isn't a thing anymore right?
Our nutters do :yeah:
I feel like, given the number of parties in the Dutch parliament, you need to narrow that down :hmm:
Exhibit A: likes sailing, mercantilism, nostalgia and casual racism. Would prefer to leave EU, or else destroy from within.
(https://valsepianobaudet.noblogs.org/files/2018/03/thierry-gouden-eeuw.jpg)
Leaving the Euro is a particulary Italian thing, the common currency has never been popular there and calls for abandoning have existed almost since the very beginning.
Regarding our lunatics, Vox does from time to time go on an anti-EU rant, most probably mixing it up with anti-globalism, but leaving it has never been part of their program, AFAIK.
That was triggered by the crisis in Greece, I'd say. In Italy this anti-Euro attitude predates that.
It is certainly something that Vox has been pushing since the very beginning.
Still a (slight) net gain for the coalition, it doesn't look that dire to me.
CUP do want to leave the EU. They're probably the only ones in the separatist camp that are honest about the whole thing, the fact that an independent Catalonia would leave the EU by default and they're pretty fine with it. The rest insist that Catalonia would remain in the EU because we're too economically important (that frame of mind rings a bell :P)
Oh right, I forgot about the threshold.
I'll blame it on not being regularly exposed to CUP and their very particular brand of lunacy. :P
In Sweden inheritance tax is 0%. :perv:
The Conservative candidate comes from a region with huge open pit lignite mines. The dirtiest form of energy. And he wants to keep it until 2038.
There is no question on who has a more realistic policy on climate change. That said, lots of people just don't care. Especially older voters of the Conservatives it seems.
Our biggest problem the world over.
Biden's plagiarism was an issue that came up when he ran for president in the 80s. Though plagiarized speech not a book.
I found this with many of those involving book plagiarism
https://edition.cnn.com/2016/07/19/politics/politicians-plagiarism/index.html
But yeah I feel like the customary academic credentials/thesis plagiarism scandal is a very German phenomenon.
Yeah he stole one of RFK's speeches. And he also had a few lies about his education I think.
Kind of miss the days when things like that were the big political scandals.
(https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/en/4/48/PiterDeVries-Brad_Dourif.jpg)
:unsure:
You could do worse than to have a mentat as a politician.
OK that's impressively stupid.
"It's okay that eight-year-old girls die screaming in agony from bone cancer because, after all, they likely will go to heaven. If they don't go to heaven, then hell is even worse than bone cancer, so they should enjoy the cancer while they can. Spend those cancer research dollars on stained glass windows for churches."
I don't think Hamburg needs a twisted genius assassin as a leader; leave that stuff to Wurttemberg.
The liberals would ally with the Greens and SPD? I thought they were tiling right to stem the AfD tide?
Yes, very much the definition of "lesser evil".
Make Europe Mediocre Again?
Prognosis is now a head-to-head race. Map shows the 299 constituencies, pie chart in upper right shows the expected seats in parliament when considering party lists.
(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/E9kFZYFWQAUZ-3u?format=jpg&name=large)
:lol:
Nice to see Franconians siding with "true" Bavarians. :P
Lutheran/Catholic rift healed. :D
"Unfortunately", the enclaves of Munich and Nuremberg (!) somewhat resist. :P
Söder?! :lol:
Bavaria Franconia wins! :D
Also interesting that the polling on preferred coalition seems to basically follow the preferred Chancellor polling - so the various SPD led options appear to be more popular than the Jamaica coalition which is not well liked at all.
Nice try at an inclusive and (secular?) nationalism. :) Why should Turkish Al-Quran bashers vote always for left-wing parties with which the only thing they have in common is their pro mass-immigration policies? :lol:
PS: slip removed as pointed out, though I think most readers understood.
Don't taint it :ph34r:
I think the trend is young people are abandoning the traditional parties for either Green, Liberal or far-right parties. In Germany's case, not so much the far right at the moment :cool:
The Green thing is happening across Europe - the "eco-socialists" in Croatia have overtaken the mainstream left, the Green candidate is the best polling candidate of the "left" in France. The FDP thing is more interesting/weird - I assume part of it is just that they've been in opposition.
Just a reminder that about 57% of people eligible to vote will be over 50 years old, and about 70% over 40. Young people are a small part of the spectrum and have (so far) had a lower voting rate than older voters.
(https://languish.org/forums/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Fcdn.statcdn.com%2FInfographic%2Fimages%2Fnormal%2F25491.jpeg&hash=7dadf9b02e66e186a76daf7957ec4055efb15427)
It keeps coming up. Bürgermeister (mayor) is male, Bürgermeisterin is female, and the plural is Bürgermeister (i.e. only male mayors, or male and female mayors), whereas Bürgermeisterinnen means female mayors only. There's various ways to get around it, e.g. list both (Bürgermeister oder Bürgermeisterin, as e.g. law texts in my home state often do) or BürgermeisterIn, or Bürgermeister*in etc. The state of Saxony has now banned cases like the last two from schools. Culture wars don't generally run deep in Germany (yet), but attempts at finding a more gender neutral language are hotly contested.
I don't mind these attempts, but I also think there's bigger fish to fry.
Looking at the full list The Left was my lowest level of agreement of all the Parties - but apparently I, as an agnostic leaning towards atheism, have the highest level of policy agreement with the Alliance C; a party that Google Translate for the page lists as being founded by two "Christian Fundamentalist" parties. (74.4%, apparently.)
Looks like I would be an FDP or CDU/CSU voter if I was German.
IIRC the question revolves around whether there should be, based on type of case, fixed fees (as it is now), or should the hospitals bill the insurances based on actual expenses. The latter might increase quality of health care, but could also raise costs of health care.
:hmm:
I am assuming/roleplaying based on my own background of being raised in a Western Bloc country that I would be a former West German rather than a former East German (so further away from the AfD's heartlands), and that my hypothetical German counterpart shares my dislike of some of their extremism and also my dislike of a wasted vote (although this last part would be less of an argument given the mixed nature of German elections, I know.)
Besides, I note that Sheilbh has a 60% spread across his parties whereas mine is only 40%...
And finally, I remember doing a manifesto comparison for a British election years ago that split results into policy areas; in two of those areas I was most aligned with the BNP...education and defense IIRC. Probably in the case of education because I support Grammar Schools believing them to be beneficial for social mobility. Doesn't mean I would ever have voted for the BNP.
But this is why I always like you posting - it's outside the Languish consensus :)
Separately I'm surprised how few European questions there are.
No one needs to comment that I apparently can't do basic Math these days.
My spread was 30% (roughly) between the main six parties. :Embarrass:
There was no "killer question" e.g. on NATO membership or some other foreign policy issue that would have eliminated the Left Party, but in reality I would never vote for them.
In the past, I usually got FDP on top and also often voted for them. Interesting that they are not in my top group anymore.
But these days I am indeed more aligned with SPD or Grüne and will likely vote for one of them
I suppose that if I was a German I'd vote the Greens. So this jives well with me.
Edit: Incidentally with Syt's poll post and the coalition preference polls I find it interesting how Germany, perhaps like the UK, is maybe voting on parties in theory but actually quite presidential in the rating of party leaders as potential Chancellor/PM seems very, very important (I think - and this could be nonsense - that in the UK, between elections, the leadership polls are a better predictor of the next election, than the party polls).
I am: completely unsurprised by my results. Also, I tossed the AfD from the comparison and added in a party more suitable to my interests. :sleep:
I think it may be because Germany as opposed to UK has a proportional system of voting, where parties are represented based on numbers of votes, as opposed to first past the post (technically, Germany has a mix of proprtionality and FPTP, but the former determined number of seats in total).
In theory we're both parliamentary democracies where you're meant to vote for the party you like best (or who you think will be the best local representative). But in practice it seems like the Chancellor-candidate is a really big factor in this election (and perhaps it's always been that way). Similarly in 2010-15 Labour were quite often ahead in the polls but people vastly preferred Cameron to Miliband which is what came to matter most in 2015 (same in 1992 and even some of the early 00s New Labour elections). It's a parliamentary democracy but people maybe vote like it's presidential?
Koran-bashers.
This additional seat business I don't approve of however. Two types of MP...no. No....
On content, the FDP shifted ever further away from their civil liberties topic, e.g. on data protection etc. Also their stance on climate change action e.g. renewable energy or on electric cars is reactionary and industry has long overtaken them. Their Reaganesque view of economics also gets more and more unrealistic. Huge tax breaks, but also paying down debt... silly, really.
On politics, the FDP were willing to get supported by the AfD in Thuringia last year, which is a showstopper for me.
I also moved to the left in my own political views.
I consider climate change a much more pressing issue than years ago and think we need drastic action - worldwide, but as I cannot influence that, at least nationally.
Another big issue I see is the growing wealth gap (not income) in our society, e.g. young people not being able to buy a house without rich parents. That's bad when we cannot guarantee pensions either.
A last big topic for me is family politics, i.e. parental leave, kindergarten availability etc. and I see the left parties stronger there. The pandemic showed how detached from the issues of parents our political elite is. At least Baerbock has two children in school age.
Then enough conservatives need to strategically vote FW.
It's Hip(e)zig it seems. LIpsian hipsters are definitively a plague, if one is to believe the locals. Not sure about Dresden with PEGIDA. :P
OTOH, if there is a part of the former GDR managing the transition to the best it's this one.
Am I just supposed to plug in whatever whiny victim complex you were going to elaborate on with the "..."? :P
It was a joke man. Chill. Saxons can have their regional party.
Complaining that other people vote the wrong way is pretty common in democracy...
Building new buildings will ruin Britain!
Intentional on their part I suppose?
Not really. It would be "Pfeif auf die Kosten!" (whistle on the cost, literally), or - more vulgar - "Scheiß auf die Kosten!" (screw/fuck the cost).
The closest I can think of is "X should be hung", which is non literally saying you disapprove strongly of X. Whether it has a neck or not.
Well yeah, but it is Saxony.
Hang, to dry, is greener actually than using dryers. :smarty:
[spoiler]I know it's not what they meant.[/spoiler]
Most of the definitions I can find focus on the "hang the cost" usage but it's used in other contexts as well -
https://idioms.thefreedictionary.com/hang
Apparently not across all the UK though.
Waiting for the judgment from Karl-Marx Stadt judges, now Chemnitz (not far from Zwickau and bigger), to form an opinion.
But I agree on the sense of drifting - it feels very weird to me to see a leader leave office with political capital intact. She's still hugely popular and there's, from my understanding, no doubt that she would win re-election if she stood. Which does raise the sort of - what was it all for/what was the point question. I'd also add that in general I think populism is a reaction, a symptom of a failure of a politics (or the removal of too much from politics) - so I'd maybe give it a decade before judging because I agree on that sense of drift and it's something you wonder about at the next crisis if things left unaddressed or unfixed may be exposed (I think in particular of the very comfortable decade we had in the UK before the financial crisis).
And I think it stored up issues such as coal and the car industry/support for diesel which will be a huge challenge for her successor in the goal to reach net zero, because I think the time when we could, as Merkel did, adopt a cautious, conservative approach waiting for consensus to build is rapidly running out.
On foreign policy I basically agree with Zanza - and I'd add Germany's China policy because I think Germany, among big Western economies, is particularly exposed to China and I think a more cautious approach might have been better. I'd put a little more blame for Orban because I think the CDU/CSU enabled his rise and continued strength because of commercial interests. Obviously I think her policy on the Eurozone was a disaster - and I still don't think the structures are in place to deal with another crisis (which is a bit part of why I hope the SPD wins - and why I think the FDP in government at this point is basically a systemic risk for the Euro).
I also think it matters that for the first time since WW2 a country in Europe invaded another to annex territory during Merkel's term of office and I don't think there's been an appropriate European response or, given that NS2 continues, German response - there were very limited consequences for that.
Especially when, from my understanding, in terms of profit Europe is still the major profit centre for big German companies like VW or Siemens - Asia (including China) and the US are roughly level pegging. But they sell more units in Asia because they may sell cheaper, older products at volume (which are often locally produced in China). It's the same as Hollywood - businesses want to do business but we shouldn't mistake corporate propaganda/lobbying for state interests and should be willing to push back on and challenge that or at least clearly mark that state interests may not be the same as commercial interests.
That's a fair point on electrification - and I think electric vehicle production is now up to about 25% of total by German car manufacturers. But just a couple of years ago it was under 5% and I think judging Merkel's time in office we have to look at the whole time since 2005 not just where we are now. I think the German car industry could have been a leader in this area but doubled down on diesel and the emissions scandal. Again it may not be a Merkel thing, it may just be a CDU/CSU thing but I think there's been a confusion of what is good for industry must be good for Germany.
In terms of carbon emissions Germany has moved from a European leader to below the EU average in Merkel's time in office and, as I say, that's not all on her, but I think it does leave big challenges for her successor and I think probably quite unpopular politics
But I think there is a specific thing about Merkel's leadership style interacting with climate because I think on climate the wider attitude in society is often not to push for action - it's too big, it's too complicated, it'll be too challenging. I think Merkel's leadership style is generally not to confront voters or try to get ahead of voters, but to wait and build consensus. So I wonder if her leadership style and general social attitudes on climate sort of feed off each other and slightly spiral into inaction.
In terms of one specific change that might help (not just with China) is allowing corporate criminal liability for corruption under German law as is the case in the UK, US and France. My understanding is at the minute in Germany liability for offering or paying bribes is limited to individuals, a company might be done for a corporate governance issues if they don't have good policies about it but legal entities cannot be criminally liable.
And I think the subsidies were available for new car purchases - though I could be wrong - and while it's right that diesel is better from an environmental perspective (setting aside the health impacts), my understanding is that buying a new car as opposed to a used is always worse from an emissions perspective no matter how clean it is.
I just double checked an international law firm survey on this. It covered South Africa, 8 APAC, 11 European, 1 Central American, 3 Middle East, 3 North American and 4 South American jurisdictions. The only jurisdictions without corporate criminal liability are Germany, Russia and Turkey - but it looks like there are proposed reforms in Germany which is good news.
For AfD it'd be the really old times, I guess. :P
That's a bit harsh for Bismarck. :P
FDP :yeah:
In Thuringia the FDP man Kemmerich was minister president for a hot five minutes. After tactical shenanigans he was voted into office with votes from (among others) the AfD which led to such an outcry that eventually he (and others, like the CDU chairwoman at the time) resigned. You can read about it here: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020_Thuringian_government_crisis
I think there's even more extreme polling in France - where young people are basically most likely to support Le Pen/RN or Melenchon/the far left :lol: :bleeding:
Plus Zemmour. ;) As for Mélenchon, islamo-leftist is more accurate than far-left. :P
Given under 18s tend towards extremes and the radicalisation of kids is a big growing problem its good that they remain firmly in the minority. With time and reality many of them should chill.
Could you explain that a bit further, for those of us not too well versed in German political scandals?
He was seen as a rising star within the CDU. He has suffered a temporary setback, but it is as Syt said: CDU affairs tend to be quickly forgotten. I have little doubt, that Amthor will continue to ooze his way to the top. :yucky:
Aren't they guaranteed a certain bit of representation?
Not sure how it works for the federal parliament, but in Schleswig-Holstein they're exempt from the rule that you need 5% of votes to get into parliament.
If Laschet had any decency, he would take personal responsibility for the CDU's poor performance. When he took over, the CDU was by far the strongest party. Then Laschet completely botched it.
:lol:
I still suspect the Greens will emerge as a third force at some point. But it's pretty striking for now that we're possible in the in-between stage.
Get ready to be visited by police some time soon. :P
Even Söder would have done better.
Your visceral hatred of centrist parties is weird.
The reason I don't want them near government is that I think they'd want the Finance Ministry and I think Christian Lindner in the Finance Ministry would be a catastrophe for Europe.
So centrist à la Macron or "populist" (sic) à la Macron? :P
My God. The Communists have won Berlin after all.
I thought the referendum on rents and nationalisation of private real estates companies was only indicative?
As in the Brexit referendum, but Germany does have a written constitution, unlike the UK, doesn't it? :P
Plus no nationalisation without due compensation, so that's a significant hurdle.
Wow. I never really got the "punchable face" meme until I saw his picture. That should be in the dictionary as an example.
Interesting to note that the Greens are mainly strong in the cities, and in university towns like Heidelberg and Tübingen.
I guess there were tactical voters in the East, instead of splitting the vote Linke/SPD they voted SPD to try put them in front. IIRC Linke tends to get more direct votes than party list votes, but they don't seem to this time.
As mentioned, controversial CDU member Maaßen failed to books his ticket, but I wonder if he had won if he had started for the AfD (which would fit him much better, in terms of content and positions).
I think out of the three options, Laschet was - in hindsight - the weakest. I was actually glad he took over the party instead of Merz (basically a classic neo-con) or Söder (who has hints of populism).
I think Merz would have fared better than Laschet, and Söder better than either of them.
Where "big name" politicians run sometimes feels to be a matter of convenience. Merkel always ran in Rügen (though to be fair she may have connections to it). Olaf Scholz is from Lower Saxony, but was long active for the Social Democrats in Hamburg where he was also First Mayor from 2011 before joining the federal government. He ran in Potsdam (same as Annalena Bärbock, also originally from Lower Saxony, but she's been running for the Brandenburg Greens since 2013; she and her husband were living in Berlin before moving to Potsdam in 2013).
They lost 1,360,000 votes to the SPD, 900,000 to the Greens and 340,000 to the FDP (but gained 100,000 from AfD and the Left). That doesn't look like a flight of conserative votes so much as almost just a loss of hegemony - I'm not sure what approach they take to recover. There is an argument that perhaps they need to be a little more defined (especially if they're not in a grand coalition again) so move more clearly to the right, but most of their votes went to the "left". But I'm not sure how you rebuild Merkel-style centrist hegemony without actually being in power.
I think the point to be taken is more about how the CSU lost a seat they had held for wide margins for 30+ years
Yeah, and Bavaria - after how long...
So, in the district where the Greens are the strongest nationally is also where the CDU and FDP are at their weakest? Makes sense, I guess. Super hipster part of Berlin?
No reminder that "true" Bavaria was not part of Germania in Roman times? Not even part of Roman Germania. [spoiler]Roman though[/spoiler]
Disappointed. :thumbsdown:
Their party list was rejected. Following internal conflicts, the federal arbitration committee of the Greens excluded the Saarlouis organization of the Greens from the vote for the party list. The federal election commission then rejected the party list because this exclusion violated democratic principles.
Seems like the French Greens. :D
And our Canadian Greens!
Well done, both of you :)
(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FBQVy3EXsAAIEfu?format=jpg&name=small)
Really interesting how far back there seems to be a divide - I assume it's a legacy of the different states, particularly Prussia, that pre-date a unified Germany. But I'm not sure :hmm:
Coalition is agreed now and a new government will be formed in the next days.
https://m.dw.com/en/german-coalition-deal-sealed-to-be-presented-later-wednesday/a-59915201
Huge misstep by the Greens, they should have gone for Internal Security, Intelligence and Defence portfolios. :ph34r:
:yeah:
It is all culture war stuff. When you have Republicans voting massive deficits and cutting checks to every single American, I am not seeing a big traditional conservative slant in any way except on cultural issues.
So when they say the Democrats are radical left they are talking about transgender and anti-racism and all that mostly. Though i guess now we have climate change and vaccines that the populist right is also labelling left wing these days.
It is however very much in line with many American right wing actors that foam in the mouth at the mere thought of anything remotely leftist and start screaming "Commies!" at the drop of a hat. I mean, this very same week Forbes was sounding the alarm on the Chilean presidential election about the risk of the country electing Boric (head of the left-wing coalition) because he is, according to them, a commie (he is not), and how the right wing candidate (the son of an actual nazi and basically the Chilean Bolsonaro) was so much more preferable.
Who do you mean?
He's a Marxist economist and obviously the reason the BBC calls Scholz a social democrat is because that's the name of his party which is normally how the BBC report things, rather than making an ideological assessment.
Maybe he did not hear about the SPD abandoning marxism in Bad Godesberg in 1959. :P
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Godesberg_Program (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Godesberg_Program)
That's actually worse than that for Portugal. It's socialists, non-destalinised communists and (far-)leftists.
Coalition has collapsed however. :P Where's clandestino btw? Sporting qualified for the next CL round and he disappeared.
:yes:
Question: The top candidates of the seven parties in the current parliament
Option 1: 
votes: 4
votes: 4
Option 2: 
votes: 17
votes: 17
Option 3: 
votes: 4
votes: 4
Option 4: 
votes: 3
votes: 3
Option 5: 
votes: 2
votes: 2
Option 6: 
votes: 2
votes: 2
Option 7: 
votes: 1
votes: 1
Title: German Federal Election 2021 - Who will succeed Angela Merkel?
Post by: Zanza on April 19, 2021, 10:52:18 AM
Post by: Zanza on April 19, 2021, 10:52:18 AM
In good old Languish tradition, I present you the top candidates of Germany's political parties. One of these will most likely succeed Angela "Mutti" Merkel as federal chancellor.
The election happens in September, so there is still some time.
The election happens in September, so there is still some time.
Title: Re: German Federal Election 2021 - Who will succeed Angela Merkel?
Post by: Grey Fox on April 19, 2021, 10:53:35 AM
Post by: Grey Fox on April 19, 2021, 10:53:35 AM
#4 She already looks like she had enough of your bullshit. Prime material for the return of Trumpmania.
Title: Re: German Federal Election 2021 - Who will succeed Angela Merkel?
Post by: HisMajestyBOB on April 19, 2021, 10:59:28 AM
Post by: HisMajestyBOB on April 19, 2021, 10:59:28 AM
The dog.
Title: Re: German Federal Election 2021 - Who will succeed Angela Merkel?
Post by: Liep on April 19, 2021, 11:10:08 AM
Post by: Liep on April 19, 2021, 11:10:08 AM
Did the Dane lose the candidacy vote? Boo!
Anyway, bubble blower.
Anyway, bubble blower.
Title: Re: German Federal Election 2021 - Who will succeed Angela Merkel?
Post by: The Larch on April 19, 2021, 11:27:59 AM
Post by: The Larch on April 19, 2021, 11:27:59 AM
I feel drawn to Silly Hat dude.
Title: Re: German Federal Election 2021 - Who will succeed Angela Merkel?
Post by: 11B4V on April 19, 2021, 05:46:06 PM
Post by: 11B4V on April 19, 2021, 05:46:06 PM
Bubbles FTW.
Title: Re: German Federal Election 2021 - Who will succeed Angela Merkel?
Post by: Sheilbh on April 19, 2021, 05:51:32 PM
Post by: Sheilbh on April 19, 2021, 05:51:32 PM
Mini-Putin with a mini-Putin dog because he has a dog.
Title: Re: German Federal Election 2021 - Who will succeed Angela Merkel?
Post by: Josquius on April 19, 2021, 05:54:28 PM
Post by: Josquius on April 19, 2021, 05:54:28 PM
The dog. Duh.
Title: Re: German Federal Election 2021 - Who will succeed Angela Merkel?
Post by: Admiral Yi on April 19, 2021, 06:00:59 PM
Post by: Admiral Yi on April 19, 2021, 06:00:59 PM
This is the most Sprocketish thread ever.
Title: Re: German Federal Election 2021 - Who will succeed Angela Merkel?
Post by: Admiral Yi on April 19, 2021, 06:02:32 PM
Post by: Admiral Yi on April 19, 2021, 06:02:32 PM
Tosss up for me between suicidal couch potato and bubble blowing dominatrix.
Title: Re: German Federal Election 2021 - Who will succeed Angela Merkel?
Post by: The Brain on April 19, 2021, 06:05:12 PM
Post by: The Brain on April 19, 2021, 06:05:12 PM
Bubbles can remilitarize my Rheinland any time.
Title: Re: German Federal Election 2021 - Who will succeed Angela Merkel?
Post by: crazy canuck on April 19, 2021, 06:23:33 PM
Post by: crazy canuck on April 19, 2021, 06:23:33 PM
Bubbles.
Title: Re: German Federal Election 2021 - Who will succeed Angela Merkel?
Post by: HVC on April 19, 2021, 06:37:14 PM
Post by: HVC on April 19, 2021, 06:37:14 PM
Humourless glasses women. She just screams no nonsense German.
Title: Re: German Federal Election 2021 - Who will succeed Angela Merkel?
Post by: Admiral Yi on April 19, 2021, 06:42:35 PM
Post by: Admiral Yi on April 19, 2021, 06:42:35 PM
Quote from: HVC on April 19, 2021, 06:37:14 PM
Humourless glasses women. She just screams no nonsense German.
Are you positive she's a woman?
Title: Re: German Federal Election 2021 - Who will succeed Angela Merkel?
Post by: Sheilbh on April 19, 2021, 06:45:11 PM
Post by: Sheilbh on April 19, 2021, 06:45:11 PM
Quote from: Admiral Yi on April 19, 2021, 06:42:35 PM(https://i.ibb.co/GcZNpLj/h.png)Quote from: HVC on April 19, 2021, 06:37:14 PM
Humourless glasses women. She just screams no nonsense German.
Are you positive she's a woman?
Title: Re: German Federal Election 2021 - Who will succeed Angela Merkel?
Post by: Admiral Yi on April 19, 2021, 06:46:16 PM
Post by: Admiral Yi on April 19, 2021, 06:46:16 PM
:lol:
Nice one.
Nice one.
Title: Re: German Federal Election 2021 - Who will succeed Angela Merkel?
Post by: HVC on April 19, 2021, 07:18:44 PM
Post by: HVC on April 19, 2021, 07:18:44 PM
:lol:
Title: Re: German Federal Election 2021 - Who will succeed Angela Merkel?
Post by: Richard Hakluyt on April 19, 2021, 11:46:01 PM
Post by: Richard Hakluyt on April 19, 2021, 11:46:01 PM
The man with the ornate tea cosy. Which would also make a good Bond film title.
Title: Re: German Federal Election 2021 - Who will succeed Angela Merkel?
Post by: celedhring on April 20, 2021, 01:56:53 AM
Post by: celedhring on April 20, 2021, 01:56:53 AM
I smell that silly hat man is a trap. So I will vote for bubbles girl.
Title: Re: German Federal Election 2021 - Who will succeed Angela Merkel?
Post by: grumbler on April 20, 2021, 06:19:57 AM
Post by: grumbler on April 20, 2021, 06:19:57 AM
Lots of punchable faces there.
Bubbles gal is too cutsie for me. I'll go with five-o'clock-shadow dude.
Bubbles gal is too cutsie for me. I'll go with five-o'clock-shadow dude.
Title: Re: German Federal Election 2021 - Who will succeed Angela Merkel?
Post by: celedhring on April 20, 2021, 06:59:17 AM
Post by: celedhring on April 20, 2021, 06:59:17 AM
Quote from: grumbler on April 20, 2021, 06:19:57 AM
Lots of punchable faces there.
Bubbles gal is too cutsie for me. I'll go with five-o'clock-shadow dude.
I want to believe that's a still from a German murder mystery show and he's the hard-boiled detective in it.
Title: Re: German Federal Election 2021 - Who will succeed Angela Merkel?
Post by: Duque de Bragança on April 20, 2021, 07:07:06 AM
Post by: Duque de Bragança on April 20, 2021, 07:07:06 AM
Quote from: celedhring on April 20, 2021, 06:59:17 AMQuote from: grumbler on April 20, 2021, 06:19:57 AM
Lots of punchable faces there.
Bubbles gal is too cutsie for me. I'll go with five-o'clock-shadow dude.
I want to believe that's a still from a German murder mystery show and he's the hard-boiled detective in it.
He is no Stefan Derrick, Der Alte, Matula or Schimanski, so I'll pass. :P
Title: Re: German Federal Election 2021 - Who will succeed Angela Merkel?
Post by: Tonitrus on April 20, 2021, 10:57:33 AM
Post by: Tonitrus on April 20, 2021, 10:57:33 AM
Quote from: HVC on April 19, 2021, 06:37:14 PM
Humourless glasses women. She just screams no nonsense German.
She screams blonde/German Rachel Maddow to me. :P
Also voted bubbles...but of course, that is most likely going to be the Greenie party.
Title: Re: German Federal Election 2021 - Who will succeed Angela Merkel?
Post by: Barrister on April 20, 2021, 11:05:18 AM
Post by: Barrister on April 20, 2021, 11:05:18 AM
So some pics are incredibly silly, but others are pretty standard. I feel like I'm being set up here, since I've been open about how I vote on these things. :grr:
So I'm voting for Shrek. I feel he's the secret centre-right politician of the group.
So I'm voting for Shrek. I feel he's the secret centre-right politician of the group.
Title: Re: German Federal Election 2021 - Who will succeed Angela Merkel?
Post by: Duque de Bragança on April 20, 2021, 11:12:21 AM
Post by: Duque de Bragança on April 20, 2021, 11:12:21 AM
Shrek is Markus Söder, CSU, the Bavarian wing of the CDU, a bit more conservative and social, or so they sometimes claim, on average than the CDU (christian-democrats).
[spoiler]Not a true Bavarian however, he is Franconian after all.[/spoiler]
[spoiler]Not a true Bavarian however, he is Franconian after all.[/spoiler]
Title: Re: German Federal Election 2021 - Who will succeed Angela Merkel?
Post by: Zanza on April 20, 2021, 11:24:30 AM
Post by: Zanza on April 20, 2021, 11:24:30 AM
I could not find silly pics of all candidates.
Top to bottom:
Christian Lindner (FDP, classical liberal)
Annalena Baerbock (Greens, in Germany that means centrist/urban)
Olaf Scholz (Social Democrats, center-left, mainly West German)
Susanne Hennig-Wellsow (Left Party, socialists, mainly East Germany)
Achim Laschet (Non-Bavarian Conservatives, center-right)
Markus Söder (Bavarian Conservatives) - he actually withdrew today and supports Laschet now
Time Chrupalla (AFD, fascist, mainly East Germany )
Top to bottom:
Christian Lindner (FDP, classical liberal)
Annalena Baerbock (Greens, in Germany that means centrist/urban)
Olaf Scholz (Social Democrats, center-left, mainly West German)
Susanne Hennig-Wellsow (Left Party, socialists, mainly East Germany)
Achim Laschet (Non-Bavarian Conservatives, center-right)
Markus Söder (Bavarian Conservatives) - he actually withdrew today and supports Laschet now
Time Chrupalla (AFD, fascist, mainly East Germany )
Title: Re: German Federal Election 2021 - Who will succeed Angela Merkel?
Post by: Caliga on April 20, 2021, 11:25:24 AM
Post by: Caliga on April 20, 2021, 11:25:24 AM
That last guy totally looks like a Nazi to me, so not him. I guess I'd have to go with the dog guy. How could anyone who speaks German and loves dogs be evil? :)
Title: Re: German Federal Election 2021 - Who will succeed Angela Merkel?
Post by: celedhring on April 20, 2021, 11:31:13 AM
Post by: celedhring on April 20, 2021, 11:31:13 AM
Hey Zanza, what's the Green's overall platform on European matters? Since there's a chance they might win.
Title: Re: German Federal Election 2021 - Who will succeed Angela Merkel?
Post by: Zanza on April 20, 2021, 11:31:24 AM
Post by: Zanza on April 20, 2021, 11:31:24 AM
Most likely is the guy with the silly hat, followed by bubbles with a very outside chance for dog guy
Title: Re: German Federal Election 2021 - Who will succeed Angela Merkel?
Post by: Zanza on April 20, 2021, 11:33:45 AM
Post by: Zanza on April 20, 2021, 11:33:45 AM
Quote from: celedhring on April 20, 2021, 11:31:13 AMBaerbock is a convinced Euro federalist. The party is in favour of more European integration.
Hey Zanza, what's the Green's overall platform on European matters? Since there's a chance they might win.
Title: Re: German Federal Election 2021 - Who will succeed Angela Merkel?
Post by: celedhring on April 20, 2021, 11:36:21 AM
Post by: celedhring on April 20, 2021, 11:36:21 AM
Quote from: Zanza on April 20, 2021, 11:33:45 AMQuote from: celedhring on April 20, 2021, 11:31:13 AMBaerbock is a convinced Euro federalist. The party is in favour of more European integration.
Hey Zanza, what's the Green's overall platform on European matters? Since there's a chance they might win.
Thanks, that's good to hear.
Title: Re: German Federal Election 2021 - Who will succeed Angela Merkel?
Post by: Zanza on April 20, 2021, 11:40:12 AM
Post by: Zanza on April 20, 2021, 11:40:12 AM
She is also against Nordstream 2 and is a member in the parliamentary group "Friends of Taipeh" and she wants US nuclear weapons removed from Germany. So fun times in foreign policy if she wins this...
Title: Re: German Federal Election 2021 - Who will succeed Angela Merkel?
Post by: Duque de Bragança on April 20, 2021, 11:41:59 AM
Post by: Duque de Bragança on April 20, 2021, 11:41:59 AM
No more Söder? :( Would have been entertaining
(https://c8.alamy.com/comp/D6G9K7/bavarian-finance-minister-markus-soeder-costumed-as-punk-r-and-his-D6G9K7.jpg)
Carnival is really big in Germany. :)
(https://c8.alamy.com/comp/D6G9K7/bavarian-finance-minister-markus-soeder-costumed-as-punk-r-and-his-D6G9K7.jpg)
Carnival is really big in Germany. :)
Title: Re: German Federal Election 2021 - Who will succeed Angela Merkel?
Post by: Zanza on April 20, 2021, 11:43:03 AM
Post by: Zanza on April 20, 2021, 11:43:03 AM
His carnival costumes are definitively top notch.
Title: Re: German Federal Election 2021 - Who will succeed Angela Merkel?
Post by: Sheilbh on April 20, 2021, 12:06:23 PM
Post by: Sheilbh on April 20, 2021, 12:06:23 PM
:mmm:
(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/EzbllFJWYAUn1VU?format=png&name=small)
(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/EzbllFJWYAUn1VU?format=png&name=small)
Title: Re: German Federal Election 2021 - Who will succeed Angela Merkel?
Post by: Tonitrus on April 20, 2021, 12:09:45 PM
Post by: Tonitrus on April 20, 2021, 12:09:45 PM
:(
(https://languish.org/forums/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Fannyas.com%2Fscreenshots%2Fimages%2F1984%2Frd-jm-04.jpg&hash=d1f690da646834bea74c92994bf590cc6815e5e4)
(https://languish.org/forums/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Fannyas.com%2Fscreenshots%2Fimages%2F1984%2Frd-jm-04.jpg&hash=d1f690da646834bea74c92994bf590cc6815e5e4)
Title: Re: German Federal Election 2021 - Who will succeed Angela Merkel?
Post by: HVC on April 20, 2021, 12:12:29 PM
Post by: HVC on April 20, 2021, 12:12:29 PM
European countries have too many parties
Title: Re: German Federal Election 2021 - Who will succeed Angela Merkel?
Post by: Sheilbh on April 20, 2021, 12:14:45 PM
Post by: Sheilbh on April 20, 2021, 12:14:45 PM
Quote from: Tonitrus on April 20, 2021, 12:09:45 PMI know - FDP surge :x
:(
(https://languish.org/forums/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Fannyas.com%2Fscreenshots%2Fimages%2F1984%2Frd-jm-04.jpg&hash=d1f690da646834bea74c92994bf590cc6815e5e4)
Title: Re: German Federal Election 2021 - Who will succeed Angela Merkel?
Post by: Barrister on April 20, 2021, 12:15:09 PM
Post by: Barrister on April 20, 2021, 12:15:09 PM
I take it Union is the CDU/CSU parties?
Title: Re: German Federal Election 2021 - Who will succeed Angela Merkel?
Post by: Sheilbh on April 20, 2021, 12:18:07 PM
Post by: Sheilbh on April 20, 2021, 12:18:07 PM
Quote from: Barrister on April 20, 2021, 12:15:09 PMYeah.
I take it Union is the CDU/CSU parties?
From everything I've read Soder seemed the far better/more compelling candidate. I know Laschet won the election as CDU leader, but why did they choose him as Chancellor-candidate? What counted against Soder? Just Bavarian-ness?
Title: Re: German Federal Election 2021 - Who will succeed Angela Merkel?
Post by: Zanza on April 20, 2021, 12:32:18 PM
Post by: Zanza on April 20, 2021, 12:32:18 PM
Quote from: Sheilbh on April 20, 2021, 12:18:07 PMThe CDU had a painful debate last year which culminated in Laschet winning a competitive vote to lead the CDU in January. If they had not nominated him now, he would already be a lame duck and the party back in leadership crisis. The party board probably assumes the rank and file will fall into line.Quote from: Barrister on April 20, 2021, 12:15:09 PMYeah.
I take it Union is the CDU/CSU parties?
From everything I've read Soder seemed the far better/more compelling candidate. I know Laschet won the election as CDU leader, but why did they choose him as Chancellor-candidate? What counted against Soder? Just Bavarian-ness?
Also the CSU may be the "sister" of the CDU, but it is hardly the most harmonious relation. Also, there are legitimate doubts about Söders personality. He is an untrustworthy backstabber...
Title: Re: German Federal Election 2021 - Who will succeed Angela Merkel?
Post by: Zanza on April 20, 2021, 12:35:01 PM
Post by: Zanza on April 20, 2021, 12:35:01 PM
Quote from: Sheilbh on April 20, 2021, 12:06:23 PMQuite an outlier so far. Let's see how this looks in two or three weeks. But the Greens look like they may be in hitting distance.
:mmm:
(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/EzbllFJWYAUn1VU?format=png&name=small)
Title: Re: German Federal Election 2021 - Who will succeed Angela Merkel?
Post by: Tonitrus on April 20, 2021, 01:16:44 PM
Post by: Tonitrus on April 20, 2021, 01:16:44 PM
Do they have viable coalition partners? (I am assuming they would need a few)
Title: Re: German Federal Election 2021 - Who will succeed Angela Merkel?
Post by: Barrister on April 20, 2021, 01:21:26 PM
Post by: Barrister on April 20, 2021, 01:21:26 PM
Quote from: Tonitrus on April 20, 2021, 01:16:44 PM
Do they have viable coalition partners? (I am assuming they would need a few)
I believe they'd previously been junior partners with the SPD in the past, so probably them and/or Linke?
Title: Re: German Federal Election 2021 - Who will succeed Angela Merkel?
Post by: Zanza on April 20, 2021, 01:28:33 PM
Post by: Zanza on April 20, 2021, 01:28:33 PM
Quote from: Tonitrus on April 20, 2021, 01:16:44 PMThey are the most centrist party and could enter a coalition with all parties except the fascists. They are currently part of 11 out of 16 state governments and have coalitions with SPD, CDU, FDP and Left party in these states.
Do they have viable coalition partners? (I am assuming they would need a few)
Title: Re: German Federal Election 2021 - Who will succeed Angela Merkel?
Post by: Tonitrus on April 20, 2021, 01:29:37 PM
Post by: Tonitrus on April 20, 2021, 01:29:37 PM
Greens = centrist?
And I thought American politics had gone mad. <_<
And I thought American politics had gone mad. <_<
Title: Re: German Federal Election 2021 - Who will succeed Angela Merkel?
Post by: grumbler on April 20, 2021, 01:32:33 PM
Post by: grumbler on April 20, 2021, 01:32:33 PM
Quote from: Caliga on April 20, 2021, 11:25:24 AM
That last guy totally looks like a Nazi to me, so not him. I guess I'd have to go with the dog guy. How could anyone who speaks German and loves dogs be evil? :)
Remember, it was a German-speaking dog lover who finally killed Hitler.
Title: Re: German Federal Election 2021 - Who will succeed Angela Merkel?
Post by: Zanza on April 20, 2021, 01:32:33 PM
Post by: Zanza on April 20, 2021, 01:32:33 PM
Quote from: Barrister on April 20, 2021, 01:21:26 PMIn the state I live in they are the senior partner of the conservatives ("Kiwi coalition"), in the neighboring state, they are junior partner of the social democrats together with the liberals ("traffic light coalition"), in Berlin they are junior partners of social democrats together with socialists ("red-red-green"), in Schleswig-Holstein they are junior partners of the conservatives together with liberals ("Jamaica coalition"). So almost everything goes.Quote from: Tonitrus on April 20, 2021, 01:16:44 PM
Do they have viable coalition partners? (I am assuming they would need a few)
I believe they'd previously been junior partners with the SPD in the past, so probably them and/or Linke?
Title: Re: German Federal Election 2021 - Who will succeed Angela Merkel?
Post by: Maladict on April 20, 2021, 01:36:59 PM
Post by: Maladict on April 20, 2021, 01:36:59 PM
Quote from: Sheilbh on April 20, 2021, 12:06:23 PM
:mmm:
(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/EzbllFJWYAUn1VU?format=png&name=small)
Seriously.
Title: Re: German Federal Election 2021 - Who will succeed Angela Merkel?
Post by: The Brain on April 20, 2021, 01:37:14 PM
Post by: The Brain on April 20, 2021, 01:37:14 PM
Quote from: grumbler on April 20, 2021, 01:32:33 PMQuote from: Caliga on April 20, 2021, 11:25:24 AM
That last guy totally looks like a Nazi to me, so not him. I guess I'd have to go with the dog guy. How could anyone who speaks German and loves dogs be evil? :)
Remember, it was a German-speaking dog lover who finally killed Hitler.
A common misconception. He spoke Austrian.
Title: Re: German Federal Election 2021 - Who will succeed Angela Merkel?
Post by: grumbler on April 20, 2021, 04:21:56 PM
Post by: grumbler on April 20, 2021, 04:21:56 PM
Quote from: The Brain on April 20, 2021, 01:37:14 PMQuote from: grumbler on April 20, 2021, 01:32:33 PMQuote from: Caliga on April 20, 2021, 11:25:24 AM
That last guy totally looks like a Nazi to me, so not him. I guess I'd have to go with the dog guy. How could anyone who speaks German and loves dogs be evil? :)
Remember, it was a German-speaking dog lover who finally killed Hitler.
A common misconception. He spoke Austrian.
Za Fuhrer neva said "baby!"
(https://cbsnews1.cbsistatic.com/hub/i/r/2011/02/15/c70ff5cb-a642-11e2-a3f0-029118418759/thumbnail/620x465/02f125dfa4edfa3f63f649dca801ee59/AP67010113058.jpg)
Title: Re: German Federal Election 2021 - Who will succeed Angela Merkel?
Post by: Crazy_Ivan80 on April 21, 2021, 01:10:35 PM
Post by: Crazy_Ivan80 on April 21, 2021, 01:10:35 PM
Quote from: Maladict on April 20, 2021, 01:36:59 PMyou'd think germans would have had their fill with fanatical ideologies...Quote from: Sheilbh on April 20, 2021, 12:06:23 PM
:mmm:
(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/EzbllFJWYAUn1VU?format=png&name=small)
Seriously.
Title: Re: German Federal Election 2021 - Who will succeed Angela Merkel?
Post by: Sheilbh on April 21, 2021, 01:11:45 PM
Post by: Sheilbh on April 21, 2021, 01:11:45 PM
German Greens are great - and very different from Greens almost everywhere else.
On foreign policy I think they are by some distance a lot better than the other parties/leaders (especially Lashchet who appears to be a right wrong'un).
On foreign policy I think they are by some distance a lot better than the other parties/leaders (especially Lashchet who appears to be a right wrong'un).
Title: Re: German Federal Election 2021 - Who will succeed Angela Merkel?
Post by: grumbler on April 21, 2021, 01:45:06 PM
Post by: grumbler on April 21, 2021, 01:45:06 PM
All the Greens I know are generally reasonable, not fanatics. I think they interpret evidence with bias, but not to the point of the anti-Greens and their denial that climate change is even happening.
Title: Re: German Federal Election 2021 - Who will succeed Angela Merkel?
Post by: Barrister on April 21, 2021, 02:01:47 PM
Post by: Barrister on April 21, 2021, 02:01:47 PM
Quote from: grumbler on April 21, 2021, 01:45:06 PM
All the Greens I know are generally reasonable, not fanatics. I think they interpret evidence with bias, but not to the point of the anti-Greens and their denial that climate change is even happening.
Not my experience with most (but not all) Canadian Greens.
Title: Re: German Federal Election 2021 - Who will succeed Angela Merkel?
Post by: Maladict on April 21, 2021, 02:02:04 PM
Post by: Maladict on April 21, 2021, 02:02:04 PM
Quote from: Crazy_Ivan80 on April 21, 2021, 01:10:35 PMQuote from: Maladict on April 20, 2021, 01:36:59 PMyou'd think germans would have had their fill with fanatical ideologies...Quote from: Sheilbh on April 20, 2021, 12:06:23 PM
:mmm:
(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/EzbllFJWYAUn1VU?format=png&name=small)
Seriously.
Yeah, those 11% are mind boggling.
Title: Re: German Federal Election 2021 - Who will succeed Angela Merkel?
Post by: Valmy on April 21, 2021, 02:21:05 PM
Post by: Valmy on April 21, 2021, 02:21:05 PM
So tell me about Linke. I always considered them the party for old East German Communists. Is that accurate? Any other reason why one would vote for Linke instead of the Greens or SPD?
Title: Re: German Federal Election 2021 - Who will succeed Angela Merkel?
Post by: Zanza on April 21, 2021, 03:18:15 PM
Post by: Zanza on April 21, 2021, 03:18:15 PM
Quote from: Valmy on April 21, 2021, 02:21:05 PMThey have some old school social democrats but also some unrepentant Stalinists and everything in-between. But in general more left then either SPD or Greens. They are fairly strong in East Germany, leading a minority government in Thuringia. When in government in states or communal levels they are reasonably pragmatic at times, but also have some really poor statist ideas in other situations. No idea how they would behave on a federal level.
So tell me about Linke. I always considered them the party for old East German Communists. Is that accurate? Any other reason why one would vote for Linke instead of the Greens or SPD?
Title: Re: German Federal Election 2021 - Who will succeed Angela Merkel?
Post by: Valmy on April 21, 2021, 03:20:24 PM
Post by: Valmy on April 21, 2021, 03:20:24 PM
So if the results were roughly what we see here and Linke, SPD, and Greens had enough combined to form a government would they do so?
Title: Re: German Federal Election 2021 - Who will succeed Angela Merkel?
Post by: Zanza on April 21, 2021, 03:22:57 PM
Post by: Zanza on April 21, 2021, 03:22:57 PM
That's not clear. The Greens in Baden-Wurttemberg had the chance to lead a government with Social Democrats and Liberals after the election a couple of weeks ago. But they opted for the Conservatives instead.
Title: Re: German Federal Election 2021 - Who will succeed Angela Merkel?
Post by: Sheilbh on April 21, 2021, 06:31:38 PM
Post by: Sheilbh on April 21, 2021, 06:31:38 PM
Quote from: grumbler on April 21, 2021, 01:45:06 PMYeah - that would put the craziness into perspective :lol:
All the Greens I know are generally reasonable, not fanatics. I think they interpret evidence with bias, but not to the point of the anti-Greens and their denial that climate change is even happening.
Denying climate change is not a thing in the major parties in the UK - in fact Johnson's announced a new UK target to cut emissions by 78% by 2035, which is, I think, what Labour proposed at the last election.
Title: Re: German Federal Election 2021 - Who will succeed Angela Merkel?
Post by: Zanza on April 22, 2021, 04:56:51 AM
Post by: Zanza on April 22, 2021, 04:56:51 AM
There is no climate change denial per se, but the Conservatives and the Greens have a very different view on urgency of action and acceptable impact on economic interests.
Laschet comes from the region with huge lignite open pit mines and has always supported this most dirty of all energy sources. Quite a big difference in case they try to rule together...
Laschet comes from the region with huge lignite open pit mines and has always supported this most dirty of all energy sources. Quite a big difference in case they try to rule together...
Title: Re: German Federal Election 2021 - Who will succeed Angela Merkel?
Post by: The Brain on April 22, 2021, 05:54:27 AM
Post by: The Brain on April 22, 2021, 05:54:27 AM
Do the Greens still think that coal is better than nuclear?
Title: Re: German Federal Election 2021 - Who will succeed Angela Merkel?
Post by: Duque de Bragança on April 22, 2021, 06:52:19 AM
Post by: Duque de Bragança on April 22, 2021, 06:52:19 AM
Quote from: The Brain on April 22, 2021, 05:54:27 AM
Do the Greens still think that coal is better than nuclear?
In practical terms yes, officially no.
Title: Re: German Federal Election 2021 - Who will succeed Angela Merkel?
Post by: Zanza on May 09, 2021, 02:30:17 AM
Post by: Zanza on May 09, 2021, 02:30:17 AM
(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/E05VT6UXIAEbqdJ?format=jpg&name=medium)
So far, the trend towards the Greens as the biggest party holds.
The conservatives have a rather uninspiring candidate who seems busy trying to convince his party that he is the right choice, mainly by trying to embrace the right. The conservatives are fighting a two front war: In the East they are losing voters to the AfD and nominate hard right candidates. In the West and in cities, they are losing voters to the Greens and Liberals. And you know how it goes when Germans fight a two front war... :P
The Greens on the other hand now have a popular candidate and are able to keep their party calm. They reacted within a day when a well-known provocateur from their party used the n-word on Facebook and fired him. The recent Constitutional Court decision on climate change also helped them.
The Social Democrats seem to be the boring, moderate choice this year, but cannot inspire beyond their now small core constituency. The Liberals are gaining, probably an effect of the lockdown measures. The neonazis are infighting between their more extreme Ning and the more moderate wing. Looks like the extreme wing will win, which will move the party towards a full-blown hard nationalist course.
Let's see if Covid "being over" in summer might change these trends.
So far, the trend towards the Greens as the biggest party holds.
The conservatives have a rather uninspiring candidate who seems busy trying to convince his party that he is the right choice, mainly by trying to embrace the right. The conservatives are fighting a two front war: In the East they are losing voters to the AfD and nominate hard right candidates. In the West and in cities, they are losing voters to the Greens and Liberals. And you know how it goes when Germans fight a two front war... :P
The Greens on the other hand now have a popular candidate and are able to keep their party calm. They reacted within a day when a well-known provocateur from their party used the n-word on Facebook and fired him. The recent Constitutional Court decision on climate change also helped them.
The Social Democrats seem to be the boring, moderate choice this year, but cannot inspire beyond their now small core constituency. The Liberals are gaining, probably an effect of the lockdown measures. The neonazis are infighting between their more extreme Ning and the more moderate wing. Looks like the extreme wing will win, which will move the party towards a full-blown hard nationalist course.
Let's see if Covid "being over" in summer might change these trends.
Title: Re: German Federal Election 2021 - Who will succeed Angela Merkel?
Post by: Syt on May 09, 2021, 02:31:53 AM
Post by: Syt on May 09, 2021, 02:31:53 AM
They straight up color the AfD brown now instead of their (self-chosen) blue? Not that I disagree, but wow. :lol:
Title: Re: German Federal Election 2021 - Who will succeed Angela Merkel?
Post by: Zanza on May 09, 2021, 02:33:32 AM
Post by: Zanza on May 09, 2021, 02:33:32 AM
Hehe, no. That's just someone recoloring the official pictures. You can still see some blue in the top left.
Title: Re: German Federal Election 2021 - Who will succeed Angela Merkel?
Post by: Syt on May 09, 2021, 02:34:12 AM
Post by: Syt on May 09, 2021, 02:34:12 AM
Ah, fair enough. :D
Title: Re: German Federal Election 2021 - Who will succeed Angela Merkel?
Post by: Zanza on May 09, 2021, 02:34:47 AM
Post by: Zanza on May 09, 2021, 02:34:47 AM
Here is the original: https://mobile.twitter.com/Wahlen_DE/status/1391143115831058433
Title: Re: German Federal Election 2021 - Who will succeed Angela Merkel?
Post by: The Larch on May 09, 2021, 05:11:55 AM
Post by: The Larch on May 09, 2021, 05:11:55 AM
Are any possible coalitions being discussed? If the Greens end up as the most voted party, who woud their coalition partners be?
I must say that the possibility of the Greens winning a national election in Germany was not something I expected to see.
I must say that the possibility of the Greens winning a national election in Germany was not something I expected to see.
Title: Re: German Federal Election 2021 - Who will succeed Angela Merkel?
Post by: Syt on May 09, 2021, 05:31:22 AM
Post by: Syt on May 09, 2021, 05:31:22 AM
Quote from: The Larch on May 09, 2021, 05:11:55 AM
Are any possible coalitions being discussed? If the Greens end up as the most voted party, who woud their coalition partners be?
I must say that the possibility of the Greens winning a national election in Germany was not something I expected to see.
John Milius tried to warn us. :P
(https://m.media-amazon.com/images/M/MV5BYjY5MTI1YjgtYzEyMy00MWY3LThhYTEtMmIyZDFhMGZlMmIxXkEyXkFqcGdeQXVyMTAxODYyODI@._V1_.jpg)
Title: Re: German Federal Election 2021 - Who will succeed Angela Merkel?
Post by: Zanza on May 09, 2021, 05:32:25 AM
Post by: Zanza on May 09, 2021, 05:32:25 AM
Lots of more or less likely options, in order of my perceived likelihood:
Green/Black or Black/Green "Kiwi" -- only realistic two-party coalition (although the conservatives are actually two separate parties), but grassroots in both parties against it, the leadership might like it for stability
Green/Red/Yellow "Traffic Light" -- lots of overlap on issues e.g human rights, not so much on economy and ecology, but would probably work
Green/Red/Red -- lots of similarities domestically, less on foreign policy. The Green co-lead said that the Left Party needs to commit for NATO as a prerequisite.
Black/Green/Yellow "Jamaica" --They tried that in 2017 and it bombed when the Liberals quit. I doubt they will try again.
Black/Green/Red "Kenya" or Black/Red/Yellow - only if nothing else goes
Black/Yellow/Blue "Bahamas" -- was tried in Thuringia two years ago, but immediately collapsed as too many conservatives and Liberals still balk at joining the fascists. But a potential outcome in Saxony-Anhalt next month...
Green/Black or Black/Green "Kiwi" -- only realistic two-party coalition (although the conservatives are actually two separate parties), but grassroots in both parties against it, the leadership might like it for stability
Green/Red/Yellow "Traffic Light" -- lots of overlap on issues e.g human rights, not so much on economy and ecology, but would probably work
Green/Red/Red -- lots of similarities domestically, less on foreign policy. The Green co-lead said that the Left Party needs to commit for NATO as a prerequisite.
Black/Green/Yellow "Jamaica" --They tried that in 2017 and it bombed when the Liberals quit. I doubt they will try again.
Black/Green/Red "Kenya" or Black/Red/Yellow - only if nothing else goes
Black/Yellow/Blue "Bahamas" -- was tried in Thuringia two years ago, but immediately collapsed as too many conservatives and Liberals still balk at joining the fascists. But a potential outcome in Saxony-Anhalt next month...
Title: Re: German Federal Election 2021 - Who will succeed Angela Merkel?
Post by: Sheilbh on May 09, 2021, 08:23:00 AM
Post by: Sheilbh on May 09, 2021, 08:23:00 AM
Quote from: The Larch on May 09, 2021, 05:11:55 AMThe German Greens are not like other Greens though - especially on foreign policy :lol:
I must say that the possibility of the Greens winning a national election in Germany was not something I expected to see.
Title: Re: German Federal Election 2021 - Who will succeed Angela Merkel?
Post by: Crazy_Ivan80 on May 09, 2021, 10:34:45 AM
Post by: Crazy_Ivan80 on May 09, 2021, 10:34:45 AM
Quote from: Sheilbh on May 09, 2021, 08:23:00 AMQuote from: The Larch on May 09, 2021, 05:11:55 AMThe German Greens are not like other Greens though - especially on foreign policy :lol:
I must say that the possibility of the Greens winning a national election in Germany was not something I expected to see.
not a chance we should take
Title: Re: German Federal Election 2021 - Who will succeed Angela Merkel?
Post by: Zanza on May 09, 2021, 12:59:11 PM
Post by: Zanza on May 09, 2021, 12:59:11 PM
Last time we had a Green foreign minister, we participated in NATO operations in Kosovo and Afghanistan. Baerbock is outspoken against e.g. Nordstream 2 and openly supports Taiwan.
The conservative candidate has tweets that suggest he supported Assad, he is friendly on Russia, his party just faces a corruption affair with Azerbaijan of all countries.
Both are strong European federalists, so hardly your views in that area.
The conservative candidate has tweets that suggest he supported Assad, he is friendly on Russia, his party just faces a corruption affair with Azerbaijan of all countries.
Both are strong European federalists, so hardly your views in that area.
Title: Re: German Federal Election 2021 - Who will succeed Angela Merkel?
Post by: Sheilbh on May 09, 2021, 01:19:02 PM
Post by: Sheilbh on May 09, 2021, 01:19:02 PM
Quote from: Zanza on May 09, 2021, 12:59:11 PMThe conservative candidate has tweets that suggest he supported Assad, he is friendly on Russia, his party just faces a corruption affair with Azerbaijan of all countries.Yeah - his tweets doubting the evidence on Russia's responsibility for the Salisbury attack have got a fair bit of attention from foreign policy people in the UK.
Title: Re: German Federal Election 2021 - Who will succeed Angela Merkel?
Post by: Josquius on May 09, 2021, 01:54:19 PM
Post by: Josquius on May 09, 2021, 01:54:19 PM
Go greens go :w00t:
Amazing stuff.
Amazing stuff.
Title: Re: German Federal Election 2021 - Who will succeed Angela Merkel?
Post by: Eddie Teach on May 09, 2021, 03:56:58 PM
Post by: Eddie Teach on May 09, 2021, 03:56:58 PM
Quote from: Crazy_Ivan80 on May 09, 2021, 10:34:45 AMQuote from: Sheilbh on May 09, 2021, 08:23:00 AMQuote from: The Larch on May 09, 2021, 05:11:55 AMThe German Greens are not like other Greens though - especially on foreign policy :lol:
I must say that the possibility of the Greens winning a national election in Germany was not something I expected to see.
not a chance we should take
The Germans will take it for you.
Btw, who is Sonstige?
Title: Re: German Federal Election 2021 - Who will succeed Angela Merkel?
Post by: Zanza on May 09, 2021, 04:03:29 PM
Post by: Zanza on May 09, 2021, 04:03:29 PM
That is German for "Others", about 20 or so small parties. You need to win 5% of the overall vote to get seats in parliament though.
Title: Re: German Federal Election 2021 - Who will succeed Angela Merkel?
Post by: Syt on May 10, 2021, 12:42:15 PM
Post by: Syt on May 10, 2021, 12:42:15 PM
(https://preview.redd.it/riztyk63vby61.jpg?width=960&crop=smart&auto=webp&s=9d9a82123033313604209bb3a1a4b9ba72a1c8d2)
(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/EwvZyUKWQAMsBAN.jpg)
Similar energy?
(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/EwvZyUKWQAMsBAN.jpg)
Similar energy?
Title: Re: German Federal Election 2021 - Who will succeed Angela Merkel?
Post by: Eddie Teach on May 10, 2021, 03:23:14 PM
Post by: Eddie Teach on May 10, 2021, 03:23:14 PM
First guy may just be tired.
Title: Re: German Federal Election 2021 - Who will succeed Angela Merkel?
Post by: Admiral Yi on May 10, 2021, 03:37:09 PM
Post by: Admiral Yi on May 10, 2021, 03:37:09 PM
Second dude might need to take a dump.
Title: Re: German Federal Election 2021 - Who will succeed Angela Merkel?
Post by: Eddie Teach on May 10, 2021, 03:55:47 PM
Post by: Eddie Teach on May 10, 2021, 03:55:47 PM
Or he might have just taken one in his pants.
Title: Re: German Federal Election 2021 - Who will succeed Angela Merkel?
Post by: Zanza on May 20, 2021, 01:19:37 PM
Post by: Zanza on May 20, 2021, 01:19:37 PM
The three top candidates (Laschet, Baerbock, Scholz) had a first TV debate on Europe/foreign policy:
- All three see the US as the most important partner of the EU, but Laschet mentioned close partnership with the UK as well
- Baerbock and Scholz want to move to EU majority voting (I.e. remove national veto) on foreign, security and fiscal policy, Laschet only on the former two
- Laschet commits on the 2% GDP goal for NATO (currently 1.56%), Scholz pointed out that he raised spending every year, but no clear commitment, Baerbock's party is against this goal and she made vague suggestions regarding more European military capabilities, especially cyber security
- On Israel/Palestine, Laschet wants a two state solution and no talks with Hamas, Baerbock said steps need to be aligned with US and weapons exports to Israel must be closely checked (but did not rule them out) and diplomatic channels to Hamas should be used, all commit on supporting Israeli security
- on Nordstream 2, Laschet and Scholz are in favor, but want to ensure energy security for Ukraine etc., Baerbock is against Nordstream 2 and thinks relying on contractual obligations by Moscow on energy security for Eastern Europe is naive
- On migrants, Scholz and Laschet want to continue with Merkels attempts at a redistribution mechanism with a coalition of the willing, Baerbock considers guarding the EU frontier important, but wants to reform Frontex to also include maritime rescue, all see Frontex alleged human right violations critical
- All three see the US as the most important partner of the EU, but Laschet mentioned close partnership with the UK as well
- Baerbock and Scholz want to move to EU majority voting (I.e. remove national veto) on foreign, security and fiscal policy, Laschet only on the former two
- Laschet commits on the 2% GDP goal for NATO (currently 1.56%), Scholz pointed out that he raised spending every year, but no clear commitment, Baerbock's party is against this goal and she made vague suggestions regarding more European military capabilities, especially cyber security
- On Israel/Palestine, Laschet wants a two state solution and no talks with Hamas, Baerbock said steps need to be aligned with US and weapons exports to Israel must be closely checked (but did not rule them out) and diplomatic channels to Hamas should be used, all commit on supporting Israeli security
- on Nordstream 2, Laschet and Scholz are in favor, but want to ensure energy security for Ukraine etc., Baerbock is against Nordstream 2 and thinks relying on contractual obligations by Moscow on energy security for Eastern Europe is naive
- On migrants, Scholz and Laschet want to continue with Merkels attempts at a redistribution mechanism with a coalition of the willing, Baerbock considers guarding the EU frontier important, but wants to reform Frontex to also include maritime rescue, all see Frontex alleged human right violations critical
Title: Re: German Federal Election 2021 - Who will succeed Angela Merkel?
Post by: Habbaku on May 20, 2021, 01:26:14 PM
Post by: Habbaku on May 20, 2021, 01:26:14 PM
Jesus, it sure is nice to read about a country where all the people gunning for the top job are basically sensible and want good policies, even if I disagree on some particulars.
Title: Re: German Federal Election 2021 - Who will succeed Angela Merkel?
Post by: DGuller on May 20, 2021, 01:56:05 PM
Post by: DGuller on May 20, 2021, 01:56:05 PM
Maybe what we need to do is for US to occupy us for a decade or two and install some sensible system of governance.
Title: Re: German Federal Election 2021 - Who will succeed Angela Merkel?
Post by: HisMajestyBOB on May 20, 2021, 02:19:19 PM
Post by: HisMajestyBOB on May 20, 2021, 02:19:19 PM
Quote from: Zanza on May 20, 2021, 01:19:37 PM
The three top candidates (Laschet, Baerbock, Scholz) had a first TV debate on Europe/foreign policy:
- All three see the US as the most important partner of the EU, but Laschet mentioned close partnership with the UK as well
- Baerbock and Scholz want to move to EU majority voting (I.e. remove national veto) on foreign, security and fiscal policy, Laschet only on the former two
- Laschet commits on the 2% GDP goal for NATO (currently 1.56%), Scholz pointed out that he raised spending every year, but no clear commitment, Baerbock's party is against this goal and she made vague suggestions regarding more European military capabilities, especially cyber security
- On Israel/Palestine, Laschet wants a two state solution and no talks with Hamas, Baerbock said steps need to be aligned with US and weapons exports to Israel must be closely checked (but did not rule them out) and diplomatic channels to Hamas should be used, all commit on supporting Israeli security
- on Nordstream 2, Laschet and Scholz are in favor, but want to ensure energy security for Ukraine etc., Baerbock is against Nordstream 2 and thinks relying on contractual obligations by Moscow on energy security for Eastern Europe is naive
- On migrants, Scholz and Laschet want to continue with Merkels attempts at a redistribution mechanism with a coalition of the willing, Baerbock considers guarding the EU frontier important, but wants to reform Frontex to also include maritime rescue, all see Frontex alleged human right violations critical
I don't get it. Where's the authoritarian populism? Where's the deranged ranting that becomes a mainstream political position?
Title: Re: German Federal Election 2021 - Who will succeed Angela Merkel?
Post by: DGuller on May 20, 2021, 02:23:50 PM
Post by: DGuller on May 20, 2021, 02:23:50 PM
Quote from: HisMajestyBOB on May 20, 2021, 02:19:19 PMGermany doesn't do this sort of thing.Quote from: Zanza on May 20, 2021, 01:19:37 PM
The three top candidates (Laschet, Baerbock, Scholz) had a first TV debate on Europe/foreign policy:
- All three see the US as the most important partner of the EU, but Laschet mentioned close partnership with the UK as well
- Baerbock and Scholz want to move to EU majority voting (I.e. remove national veto) on foreign, security and fiscal policy, Laschet only on the former two
- Laschet commits on the 2% GDP goal for NATO (currently 1.56%), Scholz pointed out that he raised spending every year, but no clear commitment, Baerbock's party is against this goal and she made vague suggestions regarding more European military capabilities, especially cyber security
- On Israel/Palestine, Laschet wants a two state solution and no talks with Hamas, Baerbock said steps need to be aligned with US and weapons exports to Israel must be closely checked (but did not rule them out) and diplomatic channels to Hamas should be used, all commit on supporting Israeli security
- on Nordstream 2, Laschet and Scholz are in favor, but want to ensure energy security for Ukraine etc., Baerbock is against Nordstream 2 and thinks relying on contractual obligations by Moscow on energy security for Eastern Europe is naive
- On migrants, Scholz and Laschet want to continue with Merkels attempts at a redistribution mechanism with a coalition of the willing, Baerbock considers guarding the EU frontier important, but wants to reform Frontex to also include maritime rescue, all see Frontex alleged human right violations critical
I don't get it. Where's the authoritarian populism? Where's the deranged ranting that becomes a mainstream political position?
Title: Re: German Federal Election 2021 - Who will succeed Angela Merkel?
Post by: Zanza on May 20, 2021, 02:59:19 PM
Post by: Zanza on May 20, 2021, 02:59:19 PM
We have our share of lunatics too, but so far both on the right and left, they are at <= 10%.
The fascist AfD wants "Dexit", i.e. to leave the EU including Euro and Schengen, stop all migration to Germany, especially family members of refugees, ban minarets, stop remembrance and atonement for the crimes of the Third Reich, the Bundeswehr should live "German military traditions"..
The socialist Left Party wants to leave NATO and close US bases, no German soldiers abroad, no weapons exports, a "normalisation" of relations to Russia, solidarity with Palestinians...
The fascist AfD wants "Dexit", i.e. to leave the EU including Euro and Schengen, stop all migration to Germany, especially family members of refugees, ban minarets, stop remembrance and atonement for the crimes of the Third Reich, the Bundeswehr should live "German military traditions"..
The socialist Left Party wants to leave NATO and close US bases, no German soldiers abroad, no weapons exports, a "normalisation" of relations to Russia, solidarity with Palestinians...
Title: Re: German Federal Election 2021 - Who will succeed Angela Merkel?
Post by: Razgovory on May 20, 2021, 05:23:24 PM
Post by: Razgovory on May 20, 2021, 05:23:24 PM
Quote from: Zanza on May 20, 2021, 02:59:19 PM
We have our share of lunatics too, but so far both on the right and left, they are at <= 10%.
The fascist AfD wants "Dexit", i.e. to leave the EU including Euro and Schengen, stop all migration to Germany, especially family members of refugees, ban minarets, stop remembrance and atonement for the crimes of the Third Reich, the Bundeswehr should live "German military traditions"..
The socialist Left Party wants to leave NATO and close US bases, no German soldiers abroad, no weapons exports, a "normalisation" of relations to Russia, solidarity with Palestinians...
Well, they lost my vote.
Title: Re: German Federal Election 2021 - Who will succeed Angela Merkel?
Post by: celedhring on May 21, 2021, 12:34:32 AM
Post by: celedhring on May 21, 2021, 12:34:32 AM
Funnily none of our lunatics openly defends exiting the EU, except the superfringe left. I guess they all know which side our bread is buttered :hmm:
Title: Re: German Federal Election 2021 - Who will succeed Angela Merkel?
Post by: Sheilbh on May 21, 2021, 01:14:00 AM
Post by: Sheilbh on May 21, 2021, 01:14:00 AM
Quote from: celedhring on May 21, 2021, 12:34:32 AMNo-one does :lol:
Funnily none of our lunatics openly defends exiting the EU, except the superfringe left. I guess they all know which side our bread is buttered :hmm:
I think Brexit showed it's difficult and, on the right, Hungary and Poland show you don't need to leave to pass that agenda (with EU funding largely intact). See the difference between Salvini who plays up old-school Euroscepticism, especially about the Euro, and Meloni, who doesn't. Most seem to focus on, at most, leaving the Euro.
Title: Re: German Federal Election 2021 - Who will succeed Angela Merkel?
Post by: Josquius on May 21, 2021, 03:13:30 AM
Post by: Josquius on May 21, 2021, 03:13:30 AM
Quote from: Zanza on May 20, 2021, 02:59:19 PM
We have our share of lunatics too, but so far both on the right and left, they are at <= 10%.
The fascist AfD wants "Dexit", i.e. to leave the EU including Euro and Schengen, stop all migration to Germany, especially family members of refugees, ban minarets, stop remembrance and atonement for the crimes of the Third Reich, the Bundeswehr should live "German military traditions"..
The socialist Left Party wants to leave NATO and close US bases, no German soldiers abroad, no weapons exports, a "normalisation" of relations to Russia, solidarity with Palestinians...
... These left wingers do know the USSR isn't a thing anymore right?
Title: Re: German Federal Election 2021 - Who will succeed Angela Merkel?
Post by: Maladict on May 21, 2021, 03:59:31 AM
Post by: Maladict on May 21, 2021, 03:59:31 AM
Quote from: Sheilbh on May 21, 2021, 01:14:00 AMQuote from: celedhring on May 21, 2021, 12:34:32 AMNo-one does :lol:
Funnily none of our lunatics openly defends exiting the EU, except the superfringe left. I guess they all know which side our bread is buttered :hmm:
Our nutters do :yeah:
Title: Re: German Federal Election 2021 - Who will succeed Angela Merkel?
Post by: Sheilbh on May 21, 2021, 04:04:44 AM
Post by: Sheilbh on May 21, 2021, 04:04:44 AM
Quote from: Maladict on May 21, 2021, 03:59:31 AM:lol: Although - which nutters?
Our nutters do :yeah:
I feel like, given the number of parties in the Dutch parliament, you need to narrow that down :hmm:
Title: Re: German Federal Election 2021 - Who will succeed Angela Merkel?
Post by: Maladict on May 21, 2021, 04:24:16 AM
Post by: Maladict on May 21, 2021, 04:24:16 AM
Quote from: Sheilbh on May 21, 2021, 04:04:44 AMQuote from: Maladict on May 21, 2021, 03:59:31 AM:lol: Although - which nutters?
Our nutters do :yeah:
I feel like, given the number of parties in the Dutch parliament, you need to narrow that down :hmm:
Exhibit A: likes sailing, mercantilism, nostalgia and casual racism. Would prefer to leave EU, or else destroy from within.
(https://valsepianobaudet.noblogs.org/files/2018/03/thierry-gouden-eeuw.jpg)
Title: Re: German Federal Election 2021 - Who will succeed Angela Merkel?
Post by: The Larch on May 21, 2021, 04:47:18 AM
Post by: The Larch on May 21, 2021, 04:47:18 AM
Quote from: Sheilbh on May 21, 2021, 01:14:00 AMQuote from: celedhring on May 21, 2021, 12:34:32 AMNo-one does :lol:
Funnily none of our lunatics openly defends exiting the EU, except the superfringe left. I guess they all know which side our bread is buttered :hmm:
I think Brexit showed it's difficult and, on the right, Hungary and Poland show you don't need to leave to pass that agenda (with EU funding largely intact). See the difference between Salvini who plays up old-school Euroscepticism, especially about the Euro, and Meloni, who doesn't. Most seem to focus on, at most, leaving the Euro.
Leaving the Euro is a particulary Italian thing, the common currency has never been popular there and calls for abandoning have existed almost since the very beginning.
Regarding our lunatics, Vox does from time to time go on an anti-EU rant, most probably mixing it up with anti-globalism, but leaving it has never been part of their program, AFAIK.
Title: Re: German Federal Election 2021 - Who will succeed Angela Merkel?
Post by: Sheilbh on May 21, 2021, 04:54:52 AM
Post by: Sheilbh on May 21, 2021, 04:54:52 AM
Quote from: The Larch on May 21, 2021, 04:47:18 AMYeah that's fair and I think it's particularly strong in Italy with some support for leaving the Euro - but I think beyond Italy, Euro politics, rather than the EU itself, often becomes the focus of eurosceptics in other countries too: France, Benelux, Germany.
Leaving the Euro is a particulary Italian thing, the common currency has never been popular there and calls for abandoning have existed almost since the very beginning.
QuoteRegarding our lunatics, Vox does from time to time go on an anti-EU rant, most probably mixing it up with anti-globalism, but leaving it has never been part of their program, AFAIK.Is globalism as much of a code-word in Spain as it is here?
Title: Re: German Federal Election 2021 - Who will succeed Angela Merkel?
Post by: Zanza on May 21, 2021, 04:57:35 AM
Post by: Zanza on May 21, 2021, 04:57:35 AM
Both our fascists and socialists have "moderate" (or rather less extreme) wings that want to stay in EU and NATO respectively, but the more extreme wings currently seem to have the upper hand in both parties.
In an interesting development, a seventh party is now big enough to be counted separately in polls although at the moment they are below the 5% threshold. The "Free Voters" are a conservative party that favors law-and-order, migration following the "Canada model", direct democracy via referendums, stronger regionalism in some aspects (but moving education to the federal government) and is somewhat eurosceptic (think Schäuble during the Greece Euro crisis). They are currently the junior partner of the conservative Union in Bavaria.
(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/E149iwSXIAMKRML?format=png&name=large)
In an interesting development, a seventh party is now big enough to be counted separately in polls although at the moment they are below the 5% threshold. The "Free Voters" are a conservative party that favors law-and-order, migration following the "Canada model", direct democracy via referendums, stronger regionalism in some aspects (but moving education to the federal government) and is somewhat eurosceptic (think Schäuble during the Greece Euro crisis). They are currently the junior partner of the conservative Union in Bavaria.
(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/E149iwSXIAMKRML?format=png&name=large)
Title: Re: German Federal Election 2021 - Who will succeed Angela Merkel?
Post by: Sheilbh on May 21, 2021, 05:06:18 AM
Post by: Sheilbh on May 21, 2021, 05:06:18 AM
Interesting - are they particularly regional? Very strong in Bavaria but not elsewhere?
Title: Re: German Federal Election 2021 - Who will succeed Angela Merkel?
Post by: Zanza on May 21, 2021, 05:11:52 AM
Post by: Zanza on May 21, 2021, 05:11:52 AM
Their strongest position is in Bavaria, but they also have factions in the parliaments of Rhineland-Palatinate and Brandenburg and single members in the parliaments of Berlin and Saxony-Anhalt. Also two seats in the European Parliament.
Title: Re: German Federal Election 2021 - Who will succeed Angela Merkel?
Post by: The Larch on May 21, 2021, 05:15:28 AM
Post by: The Larch on May 21, 2021, 05:15:28 AM
Quote from: Sheilbh on May 21, 2021, 04:54:52 AMQuote from: The Larch on May 21, 2021, 04:47:18 AMYeah that's fair and I think it's particularly strong in Italy with some support for leaving the Euro - but I think beyond Italy, Euro politics, rather than the EU itself, often becomes the focus of eurosceptics in other countries too: France, Benelux, Germany.
Leaving the Euro is a particulary Italian thing, the common currency has never been popular there and calls for abandoning have existed almost since the very beginning.
That was triggered by the crisis in Greece, I'd say. In Italy this anti-Euro attitude predates that.
QuoteQuoteRegarding our lunatics, Vox does from time to time go on an anti-EU rant, most probably mixing it up with anti-globalism, but leaving it has never been part of their program, AFAIK.Is globalism as much of a code-word in Spain as it is here?
It is certainly something that Vox has been pushing since the very beginning.
Title: Re: German Federal Election 2021 - Who will succeed Angela Merkel?
Post by: Zanza on May 27, 2021, 03:04:03 AM
Post by: Zanza on May 27, 2021, 03:04:03 AM
Local survey in Saxony-Anhalt (2.2 million persons, 2.6% of Germany) which has an election in two weeks shows the fascist AfD in top position. Caveat: The pollster INSA seems sympathetic to the AfD and often has them slightly higher than other surveys.
(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/E2VKUyiWEAke7ux?format=png&name=large)
(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/E2VKUyiWEAke7ux?format=png&name=large)
Title: Re: German Federal Election 2021 - Who will succeed Angela Merkel?
Post by: Maladict on May 27, 2021, 03:41:56 AM
Post by: Maladict on May 27, 2021, 03:41:56 AM
Quote from: Zanza on May 27, 2021, 03:04:03 AM
Local survey in Saxony-Anhalt (2.2 million persons, 2.6% of Germany) which has an election in two weeks shows the fascist AfD in top position. Caveat: The pollster INSA seems sympathetic to the AfD and often has them slightly higher than other surveys.
Still a (slight) net gain for the coalition, it doesn't look that dire to me.
Title: Re: German Federal Election 2021 - Who will succeed Angela Merkel?
Post by: Zanza on May 27, 2021, 03:50:11 AM
Post by: Zanza on May 27, 2021, 03:50:11 AM
If the FDP makes it, which looks likely, the "Kenya" coalition of CDU/SPD and Greens is too small to continue. Maybe add the FDP to get a "Zimbabwe" coalition... :wacko:
But there is open talk in CDU to be a minority government "tolerated" by the AfD. That would be a big move...
But there is open talk in CDU to be a minority government "tolerated" by the AfD. That would be a big move...
Title: Re: German Federal Election 2021 - Who will succeed Angela Merkel?
Post by: Sheilbh on May 27, 2021, 03:53:25 AM
Post by: Sheilbh on May 27, 2021, 03:53:25 AM
Quote from: Zanza on May 27, 2021, 03:50:11 AMWould it be backed by any formal agreement or just operating tacitly?
If the FDP makes it, which looks likely, the "Kenya" coalition of CDU/SPD and Greens is too small to continue. Maybe add the FDP to get a "Zimbabwe" coalition... :wacko:
But there is open talk in CDU to be a minority government "tolerated" by the AfD. That would be a big move...
Title: Re: German Federal Election 2021 - Who will succeed Angela Merkel?
Post by: celedhring on May 27, 2021, 04:03:19 AM
Post by: celedhring on May 27, 2021, 04:03:19 AM
Quote from: The Larch on May 21, 2021, 04:47:18 AMQuote from: Sheilbh on May 21, 2021, 01:14:00 AMQuote from: celedhring on May 21, 2021, 12:34:32 AMNo-one does :lol:
Funnily none of our lunatics openly defends exiting the EU, except the superfringe left. I guess they all know which side our bread is buttered :hmm:
I think Brexit showed it's difficult and, on the right, Hungary and Poland show you don't need to leave to pass that agenda (with EU funding largely intact). See the difference between Salvini who plays up old-school Euroscepticism, especially about the Euro, and Meloni, who doesn't. Most seem to focus on, at most, leaving the Euro.
Leaving the Euro is a particulary Italian thing, the common currency has never been popular there and calls for abandoning have existed almost since the very beginning.
Regarding our lunatics, Vox does from time to time go on an anti-EU rant, most probably mixing it up with anti-globalism, but leaving it has never been part of their program, AFAIK.
CUP do want to leave the EU. They're probably the only ones in the separatist camp that are honest about the whole thing, the fact that an independent Catalonia would leave the EU by default and they're pretty fine with it. The rest insist that Catalonia would remain in the EU because we're too economically important (that frame of mind rings a bell :P)
Title: Re: German Federal Election 2021 - Who will succeed Angela Merkel?
Post by: Zanza on May 27, 2021, 04:04:44 AM
Post by: Zanza on May 27, 2021, 04:04:44 AM
@Sheilbh: Does not really matter as it would be an earthquake in the CDU. Their previous leader fell over similar shenanigans in Thuringia, where CDU and AfD briefly supported a FDP prime minister.
I guess if the Eastern CDU regional parties join forces with the AfD, it would cost them dearly in the West and would damage their party leader and chancellor candidate beyond repair.
I guess if the Eastern CDU regional parties join forces with the AfD, it would cost them dearly in the West and would damage their party leader and chancellor candidate beyond repair.
Title: Re: German Federal Election 2021 - Who will succeed Angela Merkel?
Post by: Sheilbh on May 27, 2021, 05:42:53 AM
Post by: Sheilbh on May 27, 2021, 05:42:53 AM
This is fascinating:
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/may/26/german-voters-view-of-personal-wealth-causes-problems-for-the-left
Be really interesting to see comparative studies with attitudes in other countries.
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/may/26/german-voters-view-of-personal-wealth-causes-problems-for-the-left
Be really interesting to see comparative studies with attitudes in other countries.
Title: Re: German Federal Election 2021 - Who will succeed Angela Merkel?
Post by: Maladict on May 27, 2021, 05:52:33 AM
Post by: Maladict on May 27, 2021, 05:52:33 AM
Quote from: Zanza on May 27, 2021, 03:50:11 AM
If the FDP makes it, which looks likely, the "Kenya" coalition of CDU/SPD and Greens is too small to continue. Maybe add the FDP to get a "Zimbabwe" coalition... :wacko:
But there is open talk in CDU to be a minority government "tolerated" by the AfD. That would be a big move...
Oh right, I forgot about the threshold.
Title: Re: German Federal Election 2021 - Who will succeed Angela Merkel?
Post by: The Larch on May 27, 2021, 06:00:12 AM
Post by: The Larch on May 27, 2021, 06:00:12 AM
Quote from: celedhring on May 27, 2021, 04:03:19 AMQuote from: The Larch on May 21, 2021, 04:47:18 AMQuote from: Sheilbh on May 21, 2021, 01:14:00 AMQuote from: celedhring on May 21, 2021, 12:34:32 AMNo-one does :lol:
Funnily none of our lunatics openly defends exiting the EU, except the superfringe left. I guess they all know which side our bread is buttered :hmm:
I think Brexit showed it's difficult and, on the right, Hungary and Poland show you don't need to leave to pass that agenda (with EU funding largely intact). See the difference between Salvini who plays up old-school Euroscepticism, especially about the Euro, and Meloni, who doesn't. Most seem to focus on, at most, leaving the Euro.
Leaving the Euro is a particulary Italian thing, the common currency has never been popular there and calls for abandoning have existed almost since the very beginning.
Regarding our lunatics, Vox does from time to time go on an anti-EU rant, most probably mixing it up with anti-globalism, but leaving it has never been part of their program, AFAIK.
CUP do want to leave the EU. They're probably the only ones in the separatist camp that are honest about the whole thing, the fact that an independent Catalonia would leave the EU by default and they're pretty fine with it. The rest insist that Catalonia would remain in the EU because we're too economically important (that frame of mind rings a bell :P)
I'll blame it on not being regularly exposed to CUP and their very particular brand of lunacy. :P
Title: Re: German Federal Election 2021 - Who will succeed Angela Merkel?
Post by: Zanza on May 27, 2021, 06:01:41 AM
Post by: Zanza on May 27, 2021, 06:01:41 AM
Germany is okay when it comes to income distribution after state redistribution, poor when it comes to income distribution without redistribution and outright terrible when it comes to wealth distribution. We are among the worst countries in the world there, ranking with the likes of Saudi Arabia.
But yes, the perception is probably different, maybe based on the first. German billionaires seem to be more discrete than their foreign equivalents. There is also a lot of "old money" around.
It becomes a major and visible problem now as only those young people are realistically able to afford buying a house/flat that get money from their parents, be it gifts or inheritance.
But yes, the perception is probably different, maybe based on the first. German billionaires seem to be more discrete than their foreign equivalents. There is also a lot of "old money" around.
It becomes a major and visible problem now as only those young people are realistically able to afford buying a house/flat that get money from their parents, be it gifts or inheritance.
Title: Re: German Federal Election 2021 - Who will succeed Angela Merkel?
Post by: Zanza on May 27, 2021, 06:23:32 AM
Post by: Zanza on May 27, 2021, 06:23:32 AM
QuoteIn practice,however, wealth—and therefore capital income—in Germany is extremely concentrated. On average, Germans are richer than almost anyone else in Europe. The average German is about 50 percent richer than the average Italian and twice as wealthy as the average Spaniard. The distribution of wealth is so unequal in Germany, however, that the median German household is far poorer than the median Spanish household and only about as wealthy as the median Greek or Polish household. According to a comprehensive survey by the European Central Bank, Germans on lower incomes have less net wealth, in absolute terms, than low-income Estonians and Hungarians. Many Germans either have no assets at all or owe debts greater than the assets they do own.
The skewed distribution of wealth is exacerbated by the types of assets held by the richest Germans. Only 10 percent of German households directly own shares in listed companies, and only 13 percent own mutual funds. (There is likely significant overlap in those two groups.) Most important, 90 percent of all businesses in Germany—accounting for more than half of all corporate cash flow—are family-owned businesses held by just 10 percent of German households. These businesses are passed from generation to generation because they are mostly exempt from inheritance tax as long as jobs are preserved for seven years after the handover.
The perverse result is that the effective tax rate on German inheritances of more than €10 million is about 1 percent, while the effective tax rate for inheritances of €100,000 to €200,000 is roughly 14 percent. A legal change in 2016 modestly tweaked the exemptions, but the basic inequity remains.
Aus: Klein and Pettis, Trade Wars Are Class Wars, pp. 155-156, Yale University Press 2020.
QuoteUnlike many other countries, Germany's property taxes are not based on market values. Instead, they are based on assessments dating back to either 1964 (in the former West Germany) or 1935 (in the former East Germany). The result is that German property tax payments are far lower than in other countries, such as the United States.
This is regressive, because only 44 percent of German households own their main
residence. That is one of the lowest shares in the rich world. Moreover, German homeowners are far richer than the majority of Germans who rent. According to the Bundesbank, the median homeowner with a mortgage has more than fourteen times as much net wealth as the median renter. Most German homeowners do so without a mortgage, however. The median net wealth of these households is more than twenty-six times as high as that of the median renter. Part of the explanation is that a third of all German homeowners own multiple residential properties that they rent out to others. Homeowners are also far more likely to own one of Germany's many family
businesses. A recent study found that, unlike in other countries, rising rents in Germany systematically transfer income from people on low incomes to people with high incomes.
Title: Re: German Federal Election 2021 - Who will succeed Angela Merkel?
Post by: Syt on May 27, 2021, 06:42:00 AM
Post by: Syt on May 27, 2021, 06:42:00 AM
Someone's been reading the same Reddit thread as me. :P
Wikipedia has a comparison of Median and Mean Adult Wealth in Europe: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Distribution_of_wealth_in_Europe
Wikipedia has a comparison of Median and Mean Adult Wealth in Europe: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Distribution_of_wealth_in_Europe
Title: Re: German Federal Election 2021 - Who will succeed Angela Merkel?
Post by: Zanza on May 27, 2021, 06:52:31 AM
Post by: Zanza on May 27, 2021, 06:52:31 AM
Was a coincidence that I saw that after sheilbh had posted the other study here, but it definitely fits.
Title: Re: German Federal Election 2021 - Who will succeed Angela Merkel?
Post by: The Brain on May 27, 2021, 07:36:32 AM
Post by: The Brain on May 27, 2021, 07:36:32 AM
QuoteThe perverse result is that the effective tax rate on German inheritances of more than €10 million is about 1 percent, while the effective tax rate for inheritances of €100,000 to €200,000 is roughly 14 percent.
In Sweden inheritance tax is 0%. :perv:
Title: Re: German Federal Election 2021 - Who will succeed Angela Merkel?
Post by: Sheilbh on May 27, 2021, 07:38:40 AM
Post by: Sheilbh on May 27, 2021, 07:38:40 AM
Quote from: Syt on May 27, 2021, 06:42:00 AMInteresting and surprising. I assume there's probably some link to home ownership rates? :hmm:
Someone's been reading the same Reddit thread as me. :P
Wikipedia has a comparison of Median and Mean Adult Wealth in Europe: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Distribution_of_wealth_in_Europe
Title: Re: German Federal Election 2021 - Who will succeed Angela Merkel?
Post by: Admiral Yi on May 27, 2021, 09:46:45 AM
Post by: Admiral Yi on May 27, 2021, 09:46:45 AM
I've read before about the very low German participation in the stock market. It puzzles me. I can understand the link between Weimar hyperinflation and fear of inflation, but I don't see the link to fear of stocks.
I understand Japan is in a similar boat, so maybe there's some kind of "lose a World War" phenomenon. :hmm:
Any thoughts or insights?
I understand Japan is in a similar boat, so maybe there's some kind of "lose a World War" phenomenon. :hmm:
Any thoughts or insights?
Title: Re: German Federal Election 2021 - Who will succeed Angela Merkel?
Post by: Syt on May 27, 2021, 09:52:51 AM
Post by: Syt on May 27, 2021, 09:52:51 AM
Germans are very conservative when it comes to saving money. Also, people can save less than they used to. With many people renting instead of owning, and rents generally going up faster than wages ... domestic demand has been low for years now, and fewer and fewer people can afford to put money on the side to finance a property. In the 70s or 80s it wasn't unusual that a working class family with a single earner could aspire to build a house (with support from the bank, often) and pay it off till they retire. That is a tall prospect even for many middle class households these days. The most common form of wealth generation is inheritance.
Title: Re: German Federal Election 2021 - Who will succeed Angela Merkel?
Post by: Zanza on June 06, 2021, 11:27:22 AM
Post by: Zanza on June 06, 2021, 11:27:22 AM
So Saxony-Anhalt voted now and the Conservatives got a very good result on low turnout. Looks like the polarization and focus on whether the AfD could become the biggest party helped them. The current governor is also rather popular.
Poor result for SPD, Left and Greens. Good result for FDP (Liberals), which matches their overall trend.
This helps Laschet (guy with hat) in the race to the chancellorship and damages Baerbock.
(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/E3NhOdPX0AAZV5y?format=png&name=large)
Poor result for SPD, Left and Greens. Good result for FDP (Liberals), which matches their overall trend.
This helps Laschet (guy with hat) in the race to the chancellorship and damages Baerbock.
(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/E3NhOdPX0AAZV5y?format=png&name=large)
Title: Re: German Federal Election 2021 - Who will succeed Angela Merkel?
Post by: Zanza on July 19, 2021, 02:14:51 PM
Post by: Zanza on July 19, 2021, 02:14:51 PM
Latest poll on the federal election in September.
(https://i.redd.it/hf1mac0ti7c71.png)
Greens lost a lot, Conservatives regained a bit compared to the polls earlier in this thread.
The Green candidate was criticized over inaccuracies in her CV and plagiarism in her book and did not look convincing there.
The Conservatives have a really uninspiring candidate though, who allowed himself quite a gaffe during the flood.
Let's see if the flood will lead to climate change being higher on the agenda again, which would benefit the Greens.
The other parties are quite stable in their support, with Social Democrats and Liberals slightly gaining.
(https://i.redd.it/hf1mac0ti7c71.png)
Greens lost a lot, Conservatives regained a bit compared to the polls earlier in this thread.
The Green candidate was criticized over inaccuracies in her CV and plagiarism in her book and did not look convincing there.
The Conservatives have a really uninspiring candidate though, who allowed himself quite a gaffe during the flood.
Let's see if the flood will lead to climate change being higher on the agenda again, which would benefit the Greens.
The other parties are quite stable in their support, with Social Democrats and Liberals slightly gaining.
Title: Re: German Federal Election 2021 - Who will succeed Angela Merkel?
Post by: Crazy_Ivan80 on July 19, 2021, 02:52:48 PM
Post by: Crazy_Ivan80 on July 19, 2021, 02:52:48 PM
maybe the greens need to bring back the nuclear power plants, to show they're serious rather than dogmatic.
Ours will in any case combat climate change by building gas-power-plants and raising CO2 emissions.
Ours will in any case combat climate change by building gas-power-plants and raising CO2 emissions.
Title: Re: German Federal Election 2021 - Who will succeed Angela Merkel?
Post by: Sheilbh on July 19, 2021, 03:06:58 PM
Post by: Sheilbh on July 19, 2021, 03:06:58 PM
I wonder if some of those numbers is also the declining impact of vaccine politics?
In Scottish and Welsh election, English local elections, Saxony-Anhalt etc incumbents did well - precisely as vaccines were being rolled out efficiently. I wonder if that isn't a lasting boon for incumbent parties but just a temporary thing that's now fading?
In Scottish and Welsh election, English local elections, Saxony-Anhalt etc incumbents did well - precisely as vaccines were being rolled out efficiently. I wonder if that isn't a lasting boon for incumbent parties but just a temporary thing that's now fading?
Title: Re: German Federal Election 2021 - Who will succeed Angela Merkel?
Post by: Zanza on July 19, 2021, 03:14:46 PM
Post by: Zanza on July 19, 2021, 03:14:46 PM
I doubt that the German vaccine campaign gives a boost to the governing parties. The way they did it was not exactly seen as a success. And Laschet or Baerbock had zero role in that. Maybe different elsewhere.
Title: Re: German Federal Election 2021 - Who will succeed Angela Merkel?
Post by: Zanza on July 19, 2021, 03:20:46 PM
Post by: Zanza on July 19, 2021, 03:20:46 PM
Quote from: Crazy_Ivan80 on July 19, 2021, 02:52:48 PMNuclear power is not a topic in Germany anymore. Renewables are cheaper anyway without the gigantic upfront cost, long build time or the question of nuclear waste. It would have been better to first phase out coal before nuclear and let the nuclear power plants run longer. But it was a Conservative-Liberal government which made the post-Fukushima phase out decision. Mainly to take away a topic for the Greens. Shows you how shallow they are.
maybe the greens need to bring back the nuclear power plants, to show they're serious rather than dogmatic.
Ours will in any case combat climate change by building gas-power-plants and raising CO2 emissions.
The Conservative candidate comes from a region with huge open pit lignite mines. The dirtiest form of energy. And he wants to keep it until 2038.
There is no question on who has a more realistic policy on climate change. That said, lots of people just don't care. Especially older voters of the Conservatives it seems.
Title: Re: German Federal Election 2021 - Who will succeed Angela Merkel?
Post by: crazy canuck on July 19, 2021, 04:40:50 PM
Post by: crazy canuck on July 19, 2021, 04:40:50 PM
Quote from: Zanza on July 19, 2021, 03:20:46 PM
That said, lots of people just don't care. Especially older voters of the Conservatives it seems.
Our biggest problem the world over.
Title: Re: German Federal Election 2021 - Who will succeed Angela Merkel?
Post by: Syt on July 20, 2021, 01:47:30 AM
Post by: Syt on July 20, 2021, 01:47:30 AM
The bits about the CV and the copy/pasted parts in her book are bad optics for Baerbock. That said, considering the various corruption scandals in the CDU, the highly questionable comments from their far right candidate Maaßen, and the continued gaffes and displays of lack of competency by Laschet make it quite baffling that the CDU is still so far ahead in the polls.
Possibly the biggest put off about Laschet for me is the combination of incompetence and patronizing arrogance.
Possibly the biggest put off about Laschet for me is the combination of incompetence and patronizing arrogance.
Title: Re: German Federal Election 2021 - Who will succeed Angela Merkel?
Post by: The Larch on July 20, 2021, 05:37:13 AM
Post by: The Larch on July 20, 2021, 05:37:13 AM
Potential plagiarism as a reason for political resignations must be a uniquely German thing, right? What's in play there? A certain obsession with academic degrees?
Title: Re: German Federal Election 2021 - Who will succeed Angela Merkel?
Post by: garbon on July 20, 2021, 05:45:02 AM
Post by: garbon on July 20, 2021, 05:45:02 AM
Quote from: The Larch on July 20, 2021, 05:37:13 AM
Potential plagiarism as a reason for political resignations must be a uniquely German thing, right? What's in play there? A certain obsession with academic degrees?
Biden's plagiarism was an issue that came up when he ran for president in the 80s. Though plagiarized speech not a book.
Title: Re: German Federal Election 2021 - Who will succeed Angela Merkel?
Post by: The Larch on July 20, 2021, 05:54:10 AM
Post by: The Larch on July 20, 2021, 05:54:10 AM
Yeah, I was thinking more about plagiarism in an academic context, as in parts of a book or PhD.
Title: Re: German Federal Election 2021 - Who will succeed Angela Merkel?
Post by: garbon on July 20, 2021, 06:03:12 AM
Post by: garbon on July 20, 2021, 06:03:12 AM
Quote from: The Larch on July 20, 2021, 05:54:10 AM
Yeah, I was thinking more about plagiarism in an academic context, as in parts of a book or PhD.
I found this with many of those involving book plagiarism
https://edition.cnn.com/2016/07/19/politics/politicians-plagiarism/index.html
Title: Re: German Federal Election 2021 - Who will succeed Angela Merkel?
Post by: The Larch on July 20, 2021, 06:13:33 AM
Post by: The Larch on July 20, 2021, 06:13:33 AM
Thanks, I see it's a bit more widespread than I thought.
Title: Re: German Federal Election 2021 - Who will succeed Angela Merkel?
Post by: Syt on July 20, 2021, 06:19:03 AM
Post by: Syt on July 20, 2021, 06:19:03 AM
Meanwhile, Peter de Vries, candidate for the CDU in Hamburg for the Federal parliament on whether Germany is an Einwanderungsland (immigration county): there were several ethnic groups who have integrated themselves well, but Germany - while having received many migrants in recent years - is not an immigration country because it has a "genuine German people"; immigration countries would be e.g. the USA or Australia "who didn't have their own people."
Title: Re: German Federal Election 2021 - Who will succeed Angela Merkel?
Post by: Sheilbh on July 20, 2021, 06:31:14 AM
Post by: Sheilbh on July 20, 2021, 06:31:14 AM
Quote from: garbon on July 20, 2021, 05:45:02 AMAnd not just a speech but quite a personal bit of Kinnock's speech (which Biden always attributed to Kinnock but cocked up once and didn't). I think he also plagiarised one of the Kennedy brothers speeches.Quote from: The Larch on July 20, 2021, 05:37:13 AM
Potential plagiarism as a reason for political resignations must be a uniquely German thing, right? What's in play there? A certain obsession with academic degrees?
Biden's plagiarism was an issue that came up when he ran for president in the 80s. Though plagiarized speech not a book.
But yeah I feel like the customary academic credentials/thesis plagiarism scandal is a very German phenomenon.
Title: Re: German Federal Election 2021 - Who will succeed Angela Merkel?
Post by: Valmy on July 20, 2021, 08:51:45 AM
Post by: Valmy on July 20, 2021, 08:51:45 AM
Quote from: Sheilbh on July 20, 2021, 06:31:14 AMQuote from: garbon on July 20, 2021, 05:45:02 AMAnd not just a speech but quite a personal bit of Kinnock's speech (which Biden always attributed to Kinnock but cocked up once and didn't). I think he also plagiarised one of the Kennedy brothers speeches.Quote from: The Larch on July 20, 2021, 05:37:13 AM
Potential plagiarism as a reason for political resignations must be a uniquely German thing, right? What's in play there? A certain obsession with academic degrees?
Biden's plagiarism was an issue that came up when he ran for president in the 80s. Though plagiarized speech not a book.
But yeah I feel like the customary academic credentials/thesis plagiarism scandal is a very German phenomenon.
Yeah he stole one of RFK's speeches. And he also had a few lies about his education I think.
Kind of miss the days when things like that were the big political scandals.
Title: Re: German Federal Election 2021 - Who will succeed Angela Merkel?
Post by: Solmyr on July 20, 2021, 03:01:40 PM
Post by: Solmyr on July 20, 2021, 03:01:40 PM
Quote from: Syt on July 20, 2021, 06:19:03 AM
Meanwhile, Peter de Vries, candidate for the CDU in Hamburg
(https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/en/4/48/PiterDeVries-Brad_Dourif.jpg)
:unsure:
Title: Re: German Federal Election 2021 - Who will succeed Angela Merkel?
Post by: Barrister on July 20, 2021, 03:06:04 PM
Post by: Barrister on July 20, 2021, 03:06:04 PM
Quote from: Solmyr on July 20, 2021, 03:01:40 PMQuote from: Syt on July 20, 2021, 06:19:03 AM
Meanwhile, Peter de Vries, candidate for the CDU in Hamburg
(https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/en/4/48/PiterDeVries-Brad_Dourif.jpg)
:unsure:
You could do worse than to have a mentat as a politician.
Title: Re: German Federal Election 2021 - Who will succeed Angela Merkel?
Post by: Syt on July 20, 2021, 03:31:16 PM
Post by: Syt on July 20, 2021, 03:31:16 PM
Sorry, Christoph de Vries -_-
Title: Re: German Federal Election 2021 - Who will succeed Angela Merkel?
Post by: Syt on August 04, 2021, 10:24:03 AM
Post by: Syt on August 04, 2021, 10:24:03 AM
So an quote from Laschet from 2009 is making the rounds in the context of his lackluster approach to climate change:
"Belief in God is shaping my understanding of the world. If you believe that there's something after death you enact different policies than for example a communist who desperately wants to create Heaven on Earth before the end of their life."
"Belief in God is shaping my understanding of the world. If you believe that there's something after death you enact different policies than for example a communist who desperately wants to create Heaven on Earth before the end of their life."
Title: Re: German Federal Election 2021 - Who will succeed Angela Merkel?
Post by: The Brain on August 04, 2021, 10:54:03 AM
Post by: The Brain on August 04, 2021, 10:54:03 AM
Quote from: Syt on August 04, 2021, 10:24:03 AM
So an quote from Laschet from 2009 is making the rounds in the context of his lackluster approach to climate change:
"Belief in God is shaping my understanding of the world. If you believe that there's something after death you enact different policies than for example a communist who desperately wants to create Heaven on Earth before the end of their life."
OK that's impressively stupid.
Title: Re: German Federal Election 2021 - Who will succeed Angela Merkel?
Post by: grumbler on August 04, 2021, 04:48:17 PM
Post by: grumbler on August 04, 2021, 04:48:17 PM
Quote from: Syt on August 04, 2021, 10:24:03 AM
So an quote from Laschet from 2009 is making the rounds in the context of his lackluster approach to climate change:
"Belief in God is shaping my understanding of the world. If you believe that there's something after death you enact different policies than for example a communist who desperately wants to create Heaven on Earth before the end of their life."
"It's okay that eight-year-old girls die screaming in agony from bone cancer because, after all, they likely will go to heaven. If they don't go to heaven, then hell is even worse than bone cancer, so they should enjoy the cancer while they can. Spend those cancer research dollars on stained glass windows for churches."
Title: Re: German Federal Election 2021 - Who will succeed Angela Merkel?
Post by: The Minsky Moment on August 04, 2021, 07:50:30 PM
Post by: The Minsky Moment on August 04, 2021, 07:50:30 PM
Quote from: Barrister on July 20, 2021, 03:06:04 PM
You could do worse than to have a mentat as a politician.
I don't think Hamburg needs a twisted genius assassin as a leader; leave that stuff to Wurttemberg.
Title: Re: German Federal Election 2021 - Who will succeed Angela Merkel?
Post by: Syt on August 13, 2021, 01:05:24 PM
Post by: Syt on August 13, 2021, 01:05:24 PM
Press meeting with Laschet and Elon Musk who'll build a Tesla factory in Brandenburg: https://twitter.com/LarsWienand/status/1426241787170103297?s=20
Title: Re: German Federal Election 2021 - Who will succeed Angela Merkel?
Post by: Zanza on August 15, 2021, 12:53:06 AM
Post by: Zanza on August 15, 2021, 12:53:06 AM
(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/E8xaFRHXsAQAk0I?format=jpg&name=large)
The latest survey by one of the pollsters shows the Social Democrats ahead of the Greens and the Conservatives very weak.
If this was the result in mid September, a "traffic light" with the Social Democrats in the lead looks like a realistic possibility all of a sudden.
Their candidate is the guy with the dog in the poll in this thread,our current finance minister and vice chancellor.
The Conservatives have a really uninspiring candidate and the Greens had some gaffes and cannot seem to get traction despite the obvious signs of climate change around us.
The latest survey by one of the pollsters shows the Social Democrats ahead of the Greens and the Conservatives very weak.
If this was the result in mid September, a "traffic light" with the Social Democrats in the lead looks like a realistic possibility all of a sudden.
Their candidate is the guy with the dog in the poll in this thread,our current finance minister and vice chancellor.
The Conservatives have a really uninspiring candidate and the Greens had some gaffes and cannot seem to get traction despite the obvious signs of climate change around us.
Title: Re: German Federal Election 2021 - Who will succeed Angela Merkel?
Post by: Syt on August 15, 2021, 12:55:58 AM
Post by: Syt on August 15, 2021, 12:55:58 AM
To be fair, the SPD candidate looks the most competent least incompetent.
Title: Re: German Federal Election 2021 - Who will succeed Angela Merkel?
Post by: Valmy on August 16, 2021, 10:16:11 AM
Post by: Valmy on August 16, 2021, 10:16:11 AM
Quote from: Zanza on August 15, 2021, 12:53:06 AM
If this was the result in mid September, a "traffic light" with the Social Democrats in the lead looks like a realistic possibility all of a sudden.
The liberals would ally with the Greens and SPD? I thought they were tiling right to stem the AfD tide?
Title: Re: German Federal Election 2021 - Who will succeed Angela Merkel?
Post by: Zanza on August 16, 2021, 12:09:48 PM
Post by: Zanza on August 16, 2021, 12:09:48 PM
Quote from: Valmy on August 16, 2021, 10:16:11 AMYes, they are. Let's see. The party leader is vocal about not wanting the "traffic light", but his general secretary was instrumental in building such a coalition on state level.Quote from: Zanza on August 15, 2021, 12:53:06 AM
If this was the result in mid September, a "traffic light" with the Social Democrats in the lead looks like a realistic possibility all of a sudden.
The liberals would ally with the Greens and SPD? I thought they were tiling right to stem the AfD tide?
Title: Re: German Federal Election 2021 - Who will succeed Angela Merkel?
Post by: Zanza on August 16, 2021, 12:11:07 PM
Post by: Zanza on August 16, 2021, 12:11:07 PM
Quote from: Syt on August 15, 2021, 12:55:58 AMAgreed, although he is aloof and a bit too friendly to the CumEx tax frauds and the Wirecard frauds.
To be fair, the SPD candidate looks themost competentleast incompetent.
Title: Re: German Federal Election 2021 - Who will succeed Angela Merkel?
Post by: Syt on August 17, 2021, 01:19:42 AM
Post by: Syt on August 17, 2021, 01:19:42 AM
Just read that for the last federal election the share of mail in votes was 28% and is expected to be higher this year. Weirdly, no discussions around the safety of the elections. :hmm:
Title: Re: German Federal Election 2021 - Who will succeed Angela Merkel?
Post by: Syt on August 17, 2021, 01:20:08 AM
Post by: Syt on August 17, 2021, 01:20:08 AM
Quote from: Zanza on August 16, 2021, 12:11:07 PMQuote from: Syt on August 15, 2021, 12:55:58 AMAgreed, although he is aloof and a bit too friendly to the CumEx tax frauds and the Wirecard frauds.
To be fair, the SPD candidate looks themost competentleast incompetent.
Yes, very much the definition of "lesser evil".
Title: Re: German Federal Election 2021 - Who will succeed Angela Merkel?
Post by: Sheilbh on August 19, 2021, 11:30:13 AM
Post by: Sheilbh on August 19, 2021, 11:30:13 AM
Just seen, I think, the first poll I remember with the SPD in the lead :o :ph34r: :w00t:
Title: Re: German Federal Election 2021 - Who will succeed Angela Merkel?
Post by: Zanza on August 22, 2021, 03:53:56 AM
Post by: Zanza on August 22, 2021, 03:53:56 AM
I have not seen a poll with the SPD in the lead, but there are polls now showing both them and the Conservatives at 22%. Surprisingly, the election actually gets interesting now. However, there is sadly very little substantial debate in the election campaign so far.
Title: Re: German Federal Election 2021 - Who will succeed Angela Merkel?
Post by: Sheilbh on August 22, 2021, 04:09:16 AM
Post by: Sheilbh on August 22, 2021, 04:09:16 AM
It also feels like it's only happening because German voters have flirted with and been disappointed by all the other candidates :lol:
But still the European social democratic fightback starts here! (maybe) :w00t:
But still the European social democratic fightback starts here! (maybe) :w00t:
Title: Re: German Federal Election 2021 - Who will succeed Angela Merkel?
Post by: Habbaku on August 22, 2021, 09:25:01 AM
Post by: Habbaku on August 22, 2021, 09:25:01 AM
Quote from: Sheilbh on August 22, 2021, 04:09:16 AM
But still the European social democratic fightback starts here! (maybe) :w00t:
Make Europe Mediocre Again?
Title: Re: German Federal Election 2021 - Who will succeed Angela Merkel?
Post by: Syt on August 23, 2021, 03:25:26 AM
Post by: Syt on August 23, 2021, 03:25:26 AM
The tone of this tweet ... err ...
(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/E9V-fZJWYAQ1g7h?format=jpg&name=small)
"Our signal from Berlin: we're fighting, because we love Germany! And because we're fighting, we will triumph!"
(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/E9V-fZJWYAQ1g7h?format=jpg&name=small)
"Our signal from Berlin: we're fighting, because we love Germany! And because we're fighting, we will triumph!"
Title: Re: German Federal Election 2021 - Who will succeed Angela Merkel?
Post by: The Larch on August 23, 2021, 04:13:01 AM
Post by: The Larch on August 23, 2021, 04:13:01 AM
Does it come with a rousing score and magnificent Riefenstahlian cinematography? :P
Title: Re: German Federal Election 2021 - Who will succeed Angela Merkel?
Post by: Zanza on August 25, 2021, 02:53:12 AM
Post by: Zanza on August 25, 2021, 02:53:12 AM
Prognosis is now a head-to-head race. Map shows the 299 constituencies, pie chart in upper right shows the expected seats in parliament when considering party lists.
(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/E9kFZYFWQAUZ-3u?format=jpg&name=large)
Title: Re: German Federal Election 2021 - Who will succeed Angela Merkel?
Post by: Josquius on August 25, 2021, 04:26:27 AM
Post by: Josquius on August 25, 2021, 04:26:27 AM
Fucking Bavaria.
Title: Re: German Federal Election 2021 - Who will succeed Angela Merkel?
Post by: Duque de Bragança on August 25, 2021, 07:09:57 AM
Post by: Duque de Bragança on August 25, 2021, 07:09:57 AM
Quote from: Tyr on August 25, 2021, 04:26:27 AM
Fucking Bavaria.
:lol:
Nice to see Franconians siding with "true" Bavarians. :P
Lutheran/Catholic rift healed. :D
Title: Re: German Federal Election 2021 - Who will succeed Angela Merkel?
Post by: The Larch on August 25, 2021, 07:14:34 AM
Post by: The Larch on August 25, 2021, 07:14:34 AM
Bavaria, Europe's true one party state.
Title: Re: German Federal Election 2021 - Who will succeed Angela Merkel?
Post by: Duque de Bragança on August 25, 2021, 07:17:04 AM
Post by: Duque de Bragança on August 25, 2021, 07:17:04 AM
Quote from: The Larch on August 25, 2021, 07:14:34 AM
Bavaria, Europe's true one party state.
"Unfortunately", the enclaves of Munich and Nuremberg (!) somewhat resist. :P
Title: Re: German Federal Election 2021 - Who will succeed Angela Merkel?
Post by: The Brain on August 25, 2021, 08:41:20 AM
Post by: The Brain on August 25, 2021, 08:41:20 AM
Who are the current Electors? How many of them are clinically insane from inbreeding?
Title: Re: German Federal Election 2021 - Who will succeed Angela Merkel?
Post by: Zanza on August 25, 2021, 11:50:28 PM
Post by: Zanza on August 25, 2021, 11:50:28 PM
So far, the Liberals say they do not want the "traffic light" of Social Democrats, Greens and Liberals. So even if the SPD would really win, it is not clear they could form a viable coalition. On the other hands the Greens flirted with a coalition with the Conservatives for a while, so "Jamaica" right now looks more likely. That said, the price of Jamaica could well be that it is not Laschet leading it, but Söder ("Shrek" in this poll).
Title: Re: German Federal Election 2021 - Who will succeed Angela Merkel?
Post by: Syt on August 27, 2021, 09:46:37 AM
Post by: Syt on August 27, 2021, 09:46:37 AM
Meanwhile, the AfD candidate in Berlin-Neukölln:
(https://i.sozcu.com.tr/wp-content/uploads/2021/08/26/almanya-1.jpg)
"Atatürk would vote for AfD"
Slogan at the bottom: "Germany. But normal."
(https://i.sozcu.com.tr/wp-content/uploads/2021/08/26/almanya-1.jpg)
"Atatürk would vote for AfD"
Slogan at the bottom: "Germany. But normal."
Title: Re: German Federal Election 2021 - Who will succeed Angela Merkel?
Post by: Zanza on August 27, 2021, 10:08:34 AM
Post by: Zanza on August 27, 2021, 10:08:34 AM
:wacko: What the ...
I guess Neukölln is one the most left constituencies in Germany, so I guess you can just try whatever.
I guess Neukölln is one the most left constituencies in Germany, so I guess you can just try whatever.
Title: Re: German Federal Election 2021 - Who will succeed Angela Merkel?
Post by: Duque de Bragança on August 27, 2021, 11:03:09 AM
Post by: Duque de Bragança on August 27, 2021, 11:03:09 AM
Quote from: Zanza on August 25, 2021, 11:50:28 PM
So far, the Liberals say they do not want the "traffic light" of Social Democrats, Greens and Liberals. So even if the SPD would really win, it is not clear they could form a viable coalition. On the other hands the Greens flirted with a coalition with the Conservatives for a while, so "Jamaica" right now looks more likely. That said, the price of Jamaica could well be that it is not Laschet leading it, but Söder ("Shrek" in this poll).
Söder?! :lol:
Title: Re: German Federal Election 2021 - Who will succeed Angela Merkel?
Post by: Sheilbh on August 27, 2021, 11:56:46 AM
Post by: Sheilbh on August 27, 2021, 11:56:46 AM
Quote from: Zanza on August 25, 2021, 11:50:28 PMYeah - I've been wondering about that. Has there been any buyer's remorse in the CDU? From the outside Soder looked like a better candidate (this may be because my take from a distance was that Laschet had all of the worst features of Merkel's time in office, but more :lol:).
So far, the Liberals say they do not want the "traffic light" of Social Democrats, Greens and Liberals. So even if the SPD would really win, it is not clear they could form a viable coalition. On the other hands the Greens flirted with a coalition with the Conservatives for a while, so "Jamaica" right now looks more likely. That said, the price of Jamaica could well be that it is not Laschet leading it, but Söder ("Shrek" in this poll).
Also interesting that the polling on preferred coalition seems to basically follow the preferred Chancellor polling - so the various SPD led options appear to be more popular than the Jamaica coalition which is not well liked at all.
Title: Re: German Federal Election 2021 - Who will succeed Angela Merkel?
Post by: Syt on August 27, 2021, 12:02:25 PM
Post by: Syt on August 27, 2021, 12:02:25 PM
Laschet tries to deliver soundbites about future, technology etc.
However, I can't forget this picture of him last year with candidates in local elections in his state of North-Rhine-Westphalia. I feel it captures the vibe he represents for his party.
(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/E9s7bU4X0AMUw70?format=png&name=900x900)
However, I can't forget this picture of him last year with candidates in local elections in his state of North-Rhine-Westphalia. I feel it captures the vibe he represents for his party.
(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/E9s7bU4X0AMUw70?format=png&name=900x900)
Title: Re: German Federal Election 2021 - Who will succeed Angela Merkel?
Post by: The Larch on August 27, 2021, 12:05:18 PM
Post by: The Larch on August 27, 2021, 12:05:18 PM
Is that the CDU version of the Stepford Wives?
Title: Re: German Federal Election 2021 - Who will succeed Angela Merkel?
Post by: Duque de Bragança on August 27, 2021, 12:19:47 PM
Post by: Duque de Bragança on August 27, 2021, 12:19:47 PM
Quote from: Zanza on August 27, 2021, 10:08:34 AM
:wacko: What the ...
I guess Neukölln is one the most left constituencies in Germany, so I guess you can just try whatever.
Nice try at an inclusive and (secular?) nationalism. :) Why should Turkish Al-Quran bashers vote always for left-wing parties with which the only thing they have in common is their pro mass-immigration policies? :lol:
PS: slip removed as pointed out, though I think most readers understood.
Title: Re: German Federal Election 2021 - Who will succeed Angela Merkel?
Post by: Sheilbh on August 28, 2021, 04:23:23 PM
Post by: Sheilbh on August 28, 2021, 04:23:23 PM
(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/E9503-uX0AcUp9d?format=jpg&name=small)
:o :mmm: It's happening! :w00t:
:o :mmm: It's happening! :w00t:
Title: Re: German Federal Election 2021 - Who will succeed Angela Merkel?
Post by: Zanza on August 29, 2021, 01:29:49 AM
Post by: Zanza on August 29, 2021, 01:29:49 AM
Let's see. The Conservatives have a significant base that votes for them no matter what.
Title: Re: German Federal Election 2021 - Who will succeed Angela Merkel?
Post by: Maladict on August 29, 2021, 09:06:36 AM
Post by: Maladict on August 29, 2021, 09:06:36 AM
Quote from: Sheilbh on August 28, 2021, 04:23:23 PM
(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/E9503-uX0AcUp9d?format=jpg&name=small)
:o :mmm: It's happening! :w00t:
Don't taint it :ph34r:
Title: Re: German Federal Election 2021 - Who will succeed Angela Merkel?
Post by: Sheilbh on August 29, 2021, 09:50:09 AM
Post by: Sheilbh on August 29, 2021, 09:50:09 AM
:ph34r:
More generally, I am fascinated by the Green and *checks notes* FDP radicalisation of younger voters :blink:
(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/E96A6NQWYAgNCix?format=jpg&name=small)
The Greens I understand - that's a European trend. The FDP tho.....? :hmm:
More generally, I am fascinated by the Green and *checks notes* FDP radicalisation of younger voters :blink:
(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/E96A6NQWYAgNCix?format=jpg&name=small)
The Greens I understand - that's a European trend. The FDP tho.....? :hmm:
Title: Re: German Federal Election 2021 - Who will succeed Angela Merkel?
Post by: Habbaku on August 29, 2021, 09:57:39 AM
Post by: Habbaku on August 29, 2021, 09:57:39 AM
Embrace your neo-paleo-liberal future.
Title: Re: German Federal Election 2021 - Who will succeed Angela Merkel?
Post by: Tonitrus on August 29, 2021, 10:47:55 AM
Post by: Tonitrus on August 29, 2021, 10:47:55 AM
Perhaps a good example of this growing trend of extreme political polarization? The younger folks starting to eschew the more fuzzy, "middle ground" parties for the purer article?
Title: Re: German Federal Election 2021 - Who will succeed Angela Merkel?
Post by: Josquius on August 29, 2021, 10:56:40 AM
Post by: Josquius on August 29, 2021, 10:56:40 AM
Are they doing that on the left though?
The greens and social Democrats are pretty moderate no?
It does seem that going away from the generic main view is to be expected as democracies that allow for such parties to thrive mature.
The greens and social Democrats are pretty moderate no?
It does seem that going away from the generic main view is to be expected as democracies that allow for such parties to thrive mature.
Title: Re: German Federal Election 2021 - Who will succeed Angela Merkel?
Post by: Maladict on August 29, 2021, 11:07:09 AM
Post by: Maladict on August 29, 2021, 11:07:09 AM
Quote from: Sheilbh on August 29, 2021, 09:50:09 AM
The Greens I understand - that's a European trend. The FDP tho.....? :hmm:
I think the trend is young people are abandoning the traditional parties for either Green, Liberal or far-right parties. In Germany's case, not so much the far right at the moment :cool:
Title: Re: German Federal Election 2021 - Who will succeed Angela Merkel?
Post by: Sheilbh on August 29, 2021, 11:08:52 AM
Post by: Sheilbh on August 29, 2021, 11:08:52 AM
Quote from: Tonitrus on August 29, 2021, 10:47:55 AMAlso the CDU and SPD have been in government together for 12 of the last 16 years.
Perhaps a good example of this growing trend of extreme political polarization? The younger folks starting to eschew the more fuzzy, "middle ground" parties for the purer article?
The Green thing is happening across Europe - the "eco-socialists" in Croatia have overtaken the mainstream left, the Green candidate is the best polling candidate of the "left" in France. The FDP thing is more interesting/weird - I assume part of it is just that they've been in opposition.
Title: Re: German Federal Election 2021 - Who will succeed Angela Merkel?
Post by: Zanza on August 29, 2021, 12:43:20 PM
Post by: Zanza on August 29, 2021, 12:43:20 PM
The FDP is not considered a radical party in Germany. Their economic/tax policy is fairly radical for Germany, although hardly as radical as say the GOP in the US or Rishi Sunak etc. in the UK. But most of their other policies, e.g. civil rights, foreign policy, etc. is fairly mainstream.
Title: Re: German Federal Election 2021 - Who will succeed Angela Merkel?
Post by: Zanza on August 29, 2021, 02:03:18 PM
Post by: Zanza on August 29, 2021, 02:03:18 PM
Just watching the TV debate between Baerbock, Laschet and Scholz. Scholz is like Teflon, Laschet tumbles around, Baerbock is a bit boring.
EDIT: Baerbock is destroying Laschet. Scholz is just doing a Merkel...
EDIT: Baerbock is destroying Laschet. Scholz is just doing a Merkel...
Title: Re: German Federal Election 2021 - Who will succeed Angela Merkel?
Post by: Zanza on August 30, 2021, 10:54:59 AM
Post by: Zanza on August 30, 2021, 10:54:59 AM
(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/E-DCa6bWUAEsoH2?format=jpg&name=large)
Trend at INSA is clearly towards the SPD now. Let's see if this keeps up as the recent trend change was also fairly recent and sudden.
Right now, there is no obvious way to power for the SPD though as Left Party seems not compatible on foreign policy and Liberals say they don't want a traffic light.
Trend at INSA is clearly towards the SPD now. Let's see if this keeps up as the recent trend change was also fairly recent and sudden.
Right now, there is no obvious way to power for the SPD though as Left Party seems not compatible on foreign policy and Liberals say they don't want a traffic light.
Title: Re: German Federal Election 2021 - Who will succeed Angela Merkel?
Post by: Syt on August 30, 2021, 11:00:53 AM
Post by: Syt on August 30, 2021, 11:00:53 AM
Meanwhile, in the chancellery.
(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/E4vQPfsWYAIculJ?format=jpg&name=large)
(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/E4vQPfsWYAIculJ?format=jpg&name=large)
Title: Re: German Federal Election 2021 - Who will succeed Angela Merkel?
Post by: The Brain on August 30, 2021, 11:44:32 AM
Post by: The Brain on August 30, 2021, 11:44:32 AM
"-The following remain in the room. Riesling, Walker, Smirnoff, and Häagen-Dazs."
Title: Re: German Federal Election 2021 - Who will succeed Angela Merkel?
Post by: Syt on August 30, 2021, 11:48:09 AM
Post by: Syt on August 30, 2021, 11:48:09 AM
:lol:
I feel she's looking forward to the election. :D
(I also feel that if she were to run again, she's win quite handily.)
I feel she's looking forward to the election. :D
(I also feel that if she were to run again, she's win quite handily.)
Title: Re: German Federal Election 2021 - Who will succeed Angela Merkel?
Post by: Zanza on August 30, 2021, 12:10:20 PM
Post by: Zanza on August 30, 2021, 12:10:20 PM
Picture is from 2018 though.
Title: Re: German Federal Election 2021 - Who will succeed Angela Merkel?
Post by: Syt on August 30, 2021, 12:18:14 PM
Post by: Syt on August 30, 2021, 12:18:14 PM
Probably still applies. :P
Title: Re: German Federal Election 2021 - Who will succeed Angela Merkel?
Post by: Valmy on August 30, 2021, 12:32:39 PM
Post by: Valmy on August 30, 2021, 12:32:39 PM
I am reminded of what Thomas Jefferson wrote on the eve of James Madison being sworn into office:
"Never did a prisoner, released from his chains, feel such relief as I shall on shaking off the shackles of power."
Though I am not sure exactly when Merkel's release day is.
"Never did a prisoner, released from his chains, feel such relief as I shall on shaking off the shackles of power."
Though I am not sure exactly when Merkel's release day is.
Title: Re: German Federal Election 2021 - Who will succeed Angela Merkel?
Post by: Sheilbh on August 30, 2021, 12:34:34 PM
Post by: Sheilbh on August 30, 2021, 12:34:34 PM
:lol: There was also Theresa May at a cricket match the day after she was replaced as PM and just became a backbencher:
(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/EAUdyRkXUAAOw3O.jpg)
(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/EAUdyRkXUAAOw3O.jpg)
Title: Re: German Federal Election 2021 - Who will succeed Angela Merkel?
Post by: Zanza on August 30, 2021, 12:35:15 PM
Post by: Zanza on August 30, 2021, 12:35:15 PM
No one is sure. She will stay in office until parliament elects her successor. Could be days, weeks or months. Let's see if a coalition can be formed after the election.
Title: Re: German Federal Election 2021 - Who will succeed Angela Merkel?
Post by: Syt on September 01, 2021, 02:31:39 AM
Post by: Syt on September 01, 2021, 02:31:39 AM
(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/E-LhPT7WQAIs9vs?format=jpg&name=small)
"If the chancellor was elected directly, who would you vote for?" Change from 19th August => 31st August (after the first TV debate between Baerbock, Scholz, Laschet)
(The rightmost option is "none of these.")
"If the chancellor was elected directly, who would you vote for?" Change from 19th August => 31st August (after the first TV debate between Baerbock, Scholz, Laschet)
(The rightmost option is "none of these.")
Title: Re: German Federal Election 2021 - Who will succeed Angela Merkel?
Post by: Syt on September 01, 2021, 08:12:01 AM
Post by: Syt on September 01, 2021, 08:12:01 AM
Quote from: Sheilbh on August 29, 2021, 09:50:09 AM
:ph34r:
More generally, I am fascinated by the Green and *checks notes* FDP radicalisation of younger voters :blink:
Just a reminder that about 57% of people eligible to vote will be over 50 years old, and about 70% over 40. Young people are a small part of the spectrum and have (so far) had a lower voting rate than older voters.
(https://languish.org/forums/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Fcdn.statcdn.com%2FInfographic%2Fimages%2Fnormal%2F25491.jpeg&hash=7dadf9b02e66e186a76daf7957ec4055efb15427)
Title: Re: German Federal Election 2021 - Who will succeed Angela Merkel?
Post by: Syt on September 02, 2021, 04:51:12 AM
Post by: Syt on September 02, 2021, 04:51:12 AM
So, I did the Wahl-O-Mat, in which you answer a series of yes/no policy questions, and can add additional weight to some of them.
Anyways, this is my result. :hmm:
(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/E-RXMf8XsAQivpj?format=png&name=small)
Anyways, this is my result. :hmm:
(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/E-RXMf8XsAQivpj?format=png&name=small)
Title: Re: German Federal Election 2021 - Who will succeed Angela Merkel?
Post by: Josquius on September 02, 2021, 05:53:45 AM
Post by: Josquius on September 02, 2021, 05:53:45 AM
I decided to have a look for shits and giggles. Are these actually political issues in Germany? Some seem really nitpicky like the gender stuff.
(https://i.ibb.co/TmjjVWd/wahl.png)
:cheers:
(https://i.ibb.co/TmjjVWd/wahl.png)
:cheers:
Title: Re: German Federal Election 2021 - Who will succeed Angela Merkel?
Post by: Syt on September 02, 2021, 06:13:31 AM
Post by: Syt on September 02, 2021, 06:13:31 AM
Quote from: Tyr on September 02, 2021, 05:53:45 AM
I decided to have a look for shits and giggles. Are these actually political issues in Germany? Some seem really nitpicky like the gender stuff.
It keeps coming up. Bürgermeister (mayor) is male, Bürgermeisterin is female, and the plural is Bürgermeister (i.e. only male mayors, or male and female mayors), whereas Bürgermeisterinnen means female mayors only. There's various ways to get around it, e.g. list both (Bürgermeister oder Bürgermeisterin, as e.g. law texts in my home state often do) or BürgermeisterIn, or Bürgermeister*in etc. The state of Saxony has now banned cases like the last two from schools. Culture wars don't generally run deep in Germany (yet), but attempts at finding a more gender neutral language are hotly contested.
I don't mind these attempts, but I also think there's bigger fish to fry.
Title: Re: German Federal Election 2021 - Who will succeed Angela Merkel?
Post by: Sheilbh on September 02, 2021, 06:38:51 AM
Post by: Sheilbh on September 02, 2021, 06:38:51 AM
I did the test (thanks Google!) and the Languish consensus continues :lol:
QuoteGreens - 84.2%
The Left - 81.6%
SPD - 65.8%
FDP - 40.8%
CDU/CSU - 35.5%
AfD - 23.7%
Title: Re: German Federal Election 2021 - Who will succeed Angela Merkel?
Post by: Agelastus on September 02, 2021, 07:03:33 AM
Post by: Agelastus on September 02, 2021, 07:03:33 AM
QuoteAFD - 68.6%
FDP - 58.1%
SPD - 57.0%
CDU/CSU - 57.0%
Greens - 45.3%
The Left - 38.4%
Looking at the full list The Left was my lowest level of agreement of all the Parties - but apparently I, as an agnostic leaning towards atheism, have the highest level of policy agreement with the Alliance C; a party that Google Translate for the page lists as being founded by two "Christian Fundamentalist" parties. (74.4%, apparently.)
Looks like I would be an FDP or CDU/CSU voter if I was German.
Title: Re: German Federal Election 2021 - Who will succeed Angela Merkel?
Post by: Josquius on September 02, 2021, 07:03:54 AM
Post by: Josquius on September 02, 2021, 07:03:54 AM
I think there was a lot of interpretation going on in my answers. Some stuff was asking things like do you support a fixed fee for hospital treatment- my natural response writing in reply to that is fuck no, it should be free.... But I suspect its actually coming from a place of prices should be increased.
Not the best quiz I say.
But come on the greens!
Not the best quiz I say.
But come on the greens!
Title: Re: German Federal Election 2021 - Who will succeed Angela Merkel?
Post by: Syt on September 02, 2021, 07:09:06 AM
Post by: Syt on September 02, 2021, 07:09:06 AM
Quote from: Tyr on September 02, 2021, 07:03:54 AM
I think there was a lot of interpretation going on in my answers. Some stuff was asking things like do you support a fixed fee for hospital treatment- my natural response writing in reply to that is fuck no, it should be free.... But I suspect its actually coming from a place of prices should be increased.
Not the best quiz I say.
But come on the greens!
IIRC the question revolves around whether there should be, based on type of case, fixed fees (as it is now), or should the hospitals bill the insurances based on actual expenses. The latter might increase quality of health care, but could also raise costs of health care.
Title: Re: German Federal Election 2021 - Who will succeed Angela Merkel?
Post by: The Larch on September 02, 2021, 07:17:29 AM
Post by: The Larch on September 02, 2021, 07:17:29 AM
Quote from: Agelastus on September 02, 2021, 07:03:33 AMLooks like I would be an FDP or CDU/CSU voter if I was German.
QuoteAFD - 68.6%
FDP - 58.1%
CDU/CSU - 57.0%
:hmm:
Title: Re: German Federal Election 2021 - Who will succeed Angela Merkel?
Post by: Agelastus on September 02, 2021, 07:38:22 AM
Post by: Agelastus on September 02, 2021, 07:38:22 AM
Quote from: The Larch on September 02, 2021, 07:17:29 AMQuote from: Agelastus on September 02, 2021, 07:03:33 AMLooks like I would be an FDP or CDU/CSU voter if I was German.QuoteAFD - 68.6%
FDP - 58.1%
CDU/CSU - 57.0%
:hmm:
I am assuming/roleplaying based on my own background of being raised in a Western Bloc country that I would be a former West German rather than a former East German (so further away from the AfD's heartlands), and that my hypothetical German counterpart shares my dislike of some of their extremism and also my dislike of a wasted vote (although this last part would be less of an argument given the mixed nature of German elections, I know.)
Besides, I note that Sheilbh has a 60% spread across his parties whereas mine is only 40%...
And finally, I remember doing a manifesto comparison for a British election years ago that split results into policy areas; in two of those areas I was most aligned with the BNP...education and defense IIRC. Probably in the case of education because I support Grammar Schools believing them to be beneficial for social mobility. Doesn't mean I would ever have voted for the BNP.
Title: Re: German Federal Election 2021 - Who will succeed Angela Merkel?
Post by: Sheilbh on September 02, 2021, 07:43:32 AM
Post by: Sheilbh on September 02, 2021, 07:43:32 AM
Quote from: Agelastus on September 02, 2021, 07:38:22 AMI am nothing if not extreme :P
Besides, I note that Sheilbh has a 60% spread across his parties whereas mine is only 40%...
QuoteAnd finally, I remember doing a manifesto comparison for a British election years ago that split results into policy areas; in two of those areas I was most aligned with the BNP...education and defense IIRC. Probably in the case of education because I support Grammar Schools believing them to be beneficial for social mobility. Doesn't mean I would ever have voted for the BNP.Yeah - I didn't weight anything and skipped a few questions that were just a little bit too domestic (e.g. the hospital charging).
But this is why I always like you posting - it's outside the Languish consensus :)
Separately I'm surprised how few European questions there are.
Title: Re: German Federal Election 2021 - Who will succeed Angela Merkel?
Post by: Agelastus on September 02, 2021, 07:50:56 AM
Post by: Agelastus on September 02, 2021, 07:50:56 AM
Quote from: Agelastus on September 02, 2021, 07:38:22 AM
Besides, I note that Sheilbh has a 60% spread across his parties whereas mine is only 40%...
No one needs to comment that I apparently can't do basic Math these days.
My spread was 30% (roughly) between the main six parties. :Embarrass:
Title: Re: German Federal Election 2021 - Who will succeed Angela Merkel?
Post by: Zanza on September 02, 2021, 08:36:14 AM
Post by: Zanza on September 02, 2021, 08:36:14 AM
QuoteDIE LINKE 73,7 %
GRÜNE 73,7 %
SPD 71,1 %
FDP 59,2 %
CDU / CSU 46,1 %
AfD 34,2 %
There was no "killer question" e.g. on NATO membership or some other foreign policy issue that would have eliminated the Left Party, but in reality I would never vote for them.
In the past, I usually got FDP on top and also often voted for them. Interesting that they are not in my top group anymore.
But these days I am indeed more aligned with SPD or Grüne and will likely vote for one of them
Title: Re: German Federal Election 2021 - Who will succeed Angela Merkel?
Post by: celedhring on September 02, 2021, 11:42:17 AM
Post by: celedhring on September 02, 2021, 11:42:17 AM
Quote
Greens - 81.4
Die Linke - 81.4
SPD - 69.8
CDU/CSU - 43
FDP - 43
AfD - 30.2
I suppose that if I was a German I'd vote the Greens. So this jives well with me.
Title: Re: German Federal Election 2021 - Who will succeed Angela Merkel?
Post by: Maladict on September 02, 2021, 11:43:23 AM
Post by: Maladict on September 02, 2021, 11:43:23 AM
I may have misunderstood some of the German, but the results seem plausible enough.
Quote
Gruenen - 82%
Linke - 76%
SPD - 71%
FDP - 44%
CDU/CSU - 44%
AfD - 27%
Title: Re: German Federal Election 2021 - Who will succeed Angela Merkel?
Post by: Sheilbh on September 02, 2021, 11:43:49 AM
Post by: Sheilbh on September 02, 2021, 11:43:49 AM
Quote from: Zanza on September 02, 2021, 08:36:14 AMOut of interest do you think that's more you shifting view or them shifting where they are politically?
In the past, I usually got FDP on top and also often voted for them. Interesting that they are not in my top group anymore.
But these days I am indeed more aligned with SPD or Grüne and will likely vote for one of them
Edit: Incidentally with Syt's poll post and the coalition preference polls I find it interesting how Germany, perhaps like the UK, is maybe voting on parties in theory but actually quite presidential in the rating of party leaders as potential Chancellor/PM seems very, very important (I think - and this could be nonsense - that in the UK, between elections, the leadership polls are a better predictor of the next election, than the party polls).
Title: Re: German Federal Election 2021 - Who will succeed Angela Merkel?
Post by: Habbaku on September 02, 2021, 12:10:49 PM
Post by: Habbaku on September 02, 2021, 12:10:49 PM
QuoteFDP - 69.6%
BP - 68.5%
CDU/CSU - 59.8%
Gruenen - 43.5%
Linke - 42.4%
SPD - 41.3%
I am: completely unsurprised by my results. Also, I tossed the AfD from the comparison and added in a party more suitable to my interests. :sleep:
Title: Re: German Federal Election 2021 - Who will succeed Angela Merkel?
Post by: Syt on September 02, 2021, 12:17:09 PM
Post by: Syt on September 02, 2021, 12:17:09 PM
Quote from: Sheilbh on September 02, 2021, 11:43:49 AM
Edit: Incidentally with Syt's poll post and the coalition preference polls I find it interesting how Germany, perhaps like the UK, is maybe voting on parties in theory but actually quite presidential in the rating of party leaders as potential Chancellor/PM seems very, very important (I think - and this could be nonsense - that in the UK, between elections, the leadership polls are a better predictor of the next election, than the party polls).
I think it may be because Germany as opposed to UK has a proportional system of voting, where parties are represented based on numbers of votes, as opposed to first past the post (technically, Germany has a mix of proprtionality and FPTP, but the former determined number of seats in total).
Title: Re: German Federal Election 2021 - Who will succeed Angela Merkel?
Post by: Sheilbh on September 02, 2021, 12:24:43 PM
Post by: Sheilbh on September 02, 2021, 12:24:43 PM
Quote from: Syt on September 02, 2021, 12:17:09 PMYeah. I mean more the flirting with the Greens and now the move to the SPD seems motivated by people not really rating Laschet and that's reflected in the coalition preference poll as well.
I think it may be because Germany as opposed to UK has a proportional system of voting, where parties are represented based on numbers of votes, as opposed to first past the post (technically, Germany has a mix of proprtionality and FPTP, but the former determined number of seats in total).
In theory we're both parliamentary democracies where you're meant to vote for the party you like best (or who you think will be the best local representative). But in practice it seems like the Chancellor-candidate is a really big factor in this election (and perhaps it's always been that way). Similarly in 2010-15 Labour were quite often ahead in the polls but people vastly preferred Cameron to Miliband which is what came to matter most in 2015 (same in 1992 and even some of the early 00s New Labour elections). It's a parliamentary democracy but people maybe vote like it's presidential?
Title: Re: German Federal Election 2021 - Who will succeed Angela Merkel?
Post by: Syt on September 02, 2021, 12:26:48 PM
Post by: Syt on September 02, 2021, 12:26:48 PM
Oh yes, chancellor (and minister president) candidates are a major factor in federal and state elections.
Title: Re: German Federal Election 2021 - Who will succeed Angela Merkel?
Post by: Zanza on September 02, 2021, 03:52:19 PM
Post by: Zanza on September 02, 2021, 03:52:19 PM
The office of chancellor is by far the most powerful political office in the German constitution and political tradition. Of course the candidate matters.
Title: Re: German Federal Election 2021 - Who will succeed Angela Merkel?
Post by: The Brain on September 02, 2021, 03:59:40 PM
Post by: The Brain on September 02, 2021, 03:59:40 PM
In Sweden who is party leader (which is a party's candidate for PM) has always been very important in elections.
Title: Re: German Federal Election 2021 - Who will succeed Angela Merkel?
Post by: Admiral Yi on September 02, 2021, 04:15:14 PM
Post by: Admiral Yi on September 02, 2021, 04:15:14 PM
I don't understand the electoral system.
So I just read that voters get two votes, one for the individual MP for their district, and one for the party, which determines how many seats each party gets in the Bundestag.
But if, for example, everyone used their first vote to elect the Green MP for their district, and the second vote for the Social Democratic party, doesn't that produce an inconsistency?
I'm obviously missing something crucial.
So I just read that voters get two votes, one for the individual MP for their district, and one for the party, which determines how many seats each party gets in the Bundestag.
But if, for example, everyone used their first vote to elect the Green MP for their district, and the second vote for the Social Democratic party, doesn't that produce an inconsistency?
I'm obviously missing something crucial.
Title: Re: German Federal Election 2021 - Who will succeed Angela Merkel?
Post by: Jacob on September 02, 2021, 07:53:05 PM
Post by: Jacob on September 02, 2021, 07:53:05 PM
It is explained here: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Electoral_system_of_Germany#Voting_system
From my reading, I think it's something like this:
When you vote, you have two votes. One for the the person you want to represent your constituency, and one for a party.
There are 299 constitiuencies in Germany. Whoever gets the most personal votes in a constituency gets a seat in the Bundestag for that constituency. However, the power in the Bundestag is determined by the second vote, the one for party. So if the SDP gets 52% of the vote, they get 52% of the seats.
To make up any discrepancy, additional seats are distributed (and I think the percentages are applied per region, so if people in Saxony vote 52% for the CDU, 52% of the Bundestag members from Saxony are from the CDU).
The way they square that circle is that they add an additional 299 members to the Bundestag drawn from regonal party lists (so, if the CDU in Saxony are entitled to an additional 27 members, the top 27 CDU candidates (as determined by the CDU party prior to the election) get to take their seats). If the total of 598 seats is not sufficient to hit the appropraite percentages, additional seats are added. In 2017 111 extra seats were added. In 1998, 13 extra seats were added.
... something like that.
The benefit is that you can do things like vote for the local GOP candidate who you think is a good person, but give your list vote to the Democrats because you think the GOP has gone completely bonkers and should not be trusted with power. In that way, you can sort of have your cake and eat it too.
From my reading, I think it's something like this:
When you vote, you have two votes. One for the the person you want to represent your constituency, and one for a party.
There are 299 constitiuencies in Germany. Whoever gets the most personal votes in a constituency gets a seat in the Bundestag for that constituency. However, the power in the Bundestag is determined by the second vote, the one for party. So if the SDP gets 52% of the vote, they get 52% of the seats.
To make up any discrepancy, additional seats are distributed (and I think the percentages are applied per region, so if people in Saxony vote 52% for the CDU, 52% of the Bundestag members from Saxony are from the CDU).
The way they square that circle is that they add an additional 299 members to the Bundestag drawn from regonal party lists (so, if the CDU in Saxony are entitled to an additional 27 members, the top 27 CDU candidates (as determined by the CDU party prior to the election) get to take their seats). If the total of 598 seats is not sufficient to hit the appropraite percentages, additional seats are added. In 2017 111 extra seats were added. In 1998, 13 extra seats were added.
... something like that.
The benefit is that you can do things like vote for the local GOP candidate who you think is a good person, but give your list vote to the Democrats because you think the GOP has gone completely bonkers and should not be trusted with power. In that way, you can sort of have your cake and eat it too.
Title: Re: German Federal Election 2021 - Who will succeed Angela Merkel?
Post by: Sheilbh on September 02, 2021, 08:02:09 PM
Post by: Sheilbh on September 02, 2021, 08:02:09 PM
Yeah I think that's right but obviously the German posters will have a better idea.
I don't know how they calculate the list seats/do the PR math though.
The multi-member PR/additional member system has been proposed in the UK - and I think the London Assembly, Senedd and the Scottish Parliament electoral systems are all modelled on Germany's system. But they use d'Hondt PR which I do not really understand :lol: :weep: But I think Germany has a different way of calculating the list seats.
I don't know how they calculate the list seats/do the PR math though.
The multi-member PR/additional member system has been proposed in the UK - and I think the London Assembly, Senedd and the Scottish Parliament electoral systems are all modelled on Germany's system. But they use d'Hondt PR which I do not really understand :lol: :weep: But I think Germany has a different way of calculating the list seats.
Title: Re: German Federal Election 2021 - Who will succeed Angela Merkel?
Post by: Admiral Yi on September 02, 2021, 08:34:00 PM
Post by: Admiral Yi on September 02, 2021, 08:34:00 PM
Dankes a bunch
Title: Re: German Federal Election 2021 - Who will succeed Angela Merkel?
Post by: Syt on September 02, 2021, 10:48:42 PM
Post by: Syt on September 02, 2021, 10:48:42 PM
I had to learn the d'Hondt system at college. Basically it's something like this. Imagine there's 100 seats. Per party vote you'd have 25% of seats. However, you win 30 seats through direct vote. Then the total number of seats gets increased till your 30 direct seats = 25%, so you'd need 120 seats (which are all distributed according to party percentages). In practice there's a bit more to that, but that's the gist.
In practice it doesn't lead to huge changes of # of seats. In general people might split their vote if the like the idea of a certain coalition constellation, or if they like one party, but a different party has a better local candidate. And it can lead to some weirdness, because local candidates are also on their party lists and even if they don't win their direct vote, they'll still be in parliament. I recall a time when my district had three representatives in parliament: the directly elected CDU guy, plus FDP and SPD through party lists.
In practice it doesn't lead to huge changes of # of seats. In general people might split their vote if the like the idea of a certain coalition constellation, or if they like one party, but a different party has a better local candidate. And it can lead to some weirdness, because local candidates are also on their party lists and even if they don't win their direct vote, they'll still be in parliament. I recall a time when my district had three representatives in parliament: the directly elected CDU guy, plus FDP and SPD through party lists.
Title: Re: German Federal Election 2021 - Who will succeed Angela Merkel?
Post by: Eddie Teach on September 03, 2021, 01:32:59 AM
Post by: Eddie Teach on September 03, 2021, 01:32:59 AM
Quote from: Duque de Bragança on August 27, 2021, 12:19:47 PMQuote from: Zanza on August 27, 2021, 10:08:34 AM
:wacko: What the ...
I guess Neukölln is one the most left constituencies in Germany, so I guess you can just try whatever.
Nice try at an inclusive and (secular?) nationalism. :) Why should Turkish Bible Bashers vote always for left-wing parties with which they only in common their pro mass-immigration policies? :lol:
Koran-bashers.
Title: Re: German Federal Election 2021 - Who will succeed Angela Merkel?
Post by: Josquius on September 03, 2021, 03:45:11 AM
Post by: Josquius on September 03, 2021, 03:45:11 AM
Quote from: Admiral Yi on September 02, 2021, 04:15:14 PMIn Switzerland you get 13 (11?) and you can scatter them between individuals or parties :whistle:
I don't understand the electoral system.
So I just read that voters get two votes, one for the individual MP for their district, and one for the party, which determines how many seats each party gets in the Bundestag.
But if, for example, everyone used their first vote to elect the Green MP for their district, and the second vote for the Social Democratic party, doesn't that produce an inconsistency?
I'm obviously missing something crucial.
This additional seat business I don't approve of however. Two types of MP...no. No....
Title: Re: German Federal Election 2021 - Who will succeed Angela Merkel?
Post by: Syt on September 03, 2021, 04:32:27 AM
Post by: Syt on September 03, 2021, 04:32:27 AM
In a recent survey, voters were asked whether the effects of climate change on future generations would play any role in their choice of who to vote for.
40% of the age group 30-39 said it would, with the number dropping with age to under 30% among 65+ voters. In fact ca. 60% of voters over 65 flat out said it plays zero role in their decision.
40% of the age group 30-39 said it would, with the number dropping with age to under 30% among 65+ voters. In fact ca. 60% of voters over 65 flat out said it plays zero role in their decision.
Title: Re: German Federal Election 2021 - Who will succeed Angela Merkel?
Post by: Josquius on September 03, 2021, 04:48:41 AM
Post by: Josquius on September 03, 2021, 04:48:41 AM
Better that than they will actively choose to vote against those who want to tackle climate change I guess?
Title: Re: German Federal Election 2021 - Who will succeed Angela Merkel?
Post by: Zanza on September 03, 2021, 05:47:31 AM
Post by: Zanza on September 03, 2021, 05:47:31 AM
Quote from: Sheilbh on September 02, 2021, 11:43:49 AMBoth probably.Quote from: Zanza on September 02, 2021, 08:36:14 AMOut of interest do you think that's more you shifting view or them shifting where they are politically?
In the past, I usually got FDP on top and also often voted for them. Interesting that they are not in my top group anymore.
But these days I am indeed more aligned with SPD or Grüne and will likely vote for one of them
On content, the FDP shifted ever further away from their civil liberties topic, e.g. on data protection etc. Also their stance on climate change action e.g. renewable energy or on electric cars is reactionary and industry has long overtaken them. Their Reaganesque view of economics also gets more and more unrealistic. Huge tax breaks, but also paying down debt... silly, really.
On politics, the FDP were willing to get supported by the AfD in Thuringia last year, which is a showstopper for me.
I also moved to the left in my own political views.
I consider climate change a much more pressing issue than years ago and think we need drastic action - worldwide, but as I cannot influence that, at least nationally.
Another big issue I see is the growing wealth gap (not income) in our society, e.g. young people not being able to buy a house without rich parents. That's bad when we cannot guarantee pensions either.
A last big topic for me is family politics, i.e. parental leave, kindergarten availability etc. and I see the left parties stronger there. The pandemic showed how detached from the issues of parents our political elite is. At least Baerbock has two children in school age.
Title: Re: German Federal Election 2021 - Who will succeed Angela Merkel?
Post by: Zanza on September 05, 2021, 02:28:11 PM
Post by: Zanza on September 05, 2021, 02:28:11 PM
The Covidiot party is called "The Basis". I guess Osama bin Laden would approve of the name.
Title: Re: German Federal Election 2021 - Who will succeed Angela Merkel?
Post by: Zanza on September 06, 2021, 01:05:54 PM
Post by: Zanza on September 06, 2021, 01:05:54 PM
(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/E-nAhVwWYAgNOx-?format=png&name=small)
Social Democrat lead has stabilized in the last week,now a few points ahead of the Conservatives in all recent surveys.
The Liberals so far exclude the Traffic Light, Social Democrats and Greens exclude a coalition with the Left Party.
Most interesting election in years here, still wide open.
Social Democrat lead has stabilized in the last week,now a few points ahead of the Conservatives in all recent surveys.
The Liberals so far exclude the Traffic Light, Social Democrats and Greens exclude a coalition with the Left Party.
Most interesting election in years here, still wide open.
Title: Re: German Federal Election 2021 - Who will succeed Angela Merkel?
Post by: Maladict on September 06, 2021, 01:17:04 PM
Post by: Maladict on September 06, 2021, 01:17:04 PM
Would red-black-orange be viable, if they make a majority?
Title: Re: German Federal Election 2021 - Who will succeed Angela Merkel?
Post by: Zanza on September 06, 2021, 01:30:38 PM
Post by: Zanza on September 06, 2021, 01:30:38 PM
Parties below five percent do not get into parliament*, so the FW ("Freie Wähler") will not get any seats for their 3%.
* Exceptions apply: If you win three constituency seats, you get your percentage share of seats. Or if you are the Danish minority party in Schleswig-Holstein.
* Exceptions apply: If you win three constituency seats, you get your percentage share of seats. Or if you are the Danish minority party in Schleswig-Holstein.
Title: Re: German Federal Election 2021 - Who will succeed Angela Merkel?
Post by: Maladict on September 06, 2021, 01:48:28 PM
Post by: Maladict on September 06, 2021, 01:48:28 PM
Quote from: Zanza on September 06, 2021, 01:30:38 PM
Parties below five percent do not get into parliament*, so the FW ("Freie Wähler") will not get any seats for their 3%.
* Exceptions apply: If you win three constituency seats, you get your percentage share of seats. Or if you are the Danish minority party in Schleswig-Holstein.
Then enough conservatives need to strategically vote FW.
Title: Re: German Federal Election 2021 - Who will succeed Angela Merkel?
Post by: Josquius on September 06, 2021, 02:22:41 PM
Post by: Josquius on September 06, 2021, 02:22:41 PM
How the greens have fallen :(
Title: Re: German Federal Election 2021 - Who will succeed Angela Merkel?
Post by: Zanza on September 07, 2021, 05:26:47 AM
Post by: Zanza on September 07, 2021, 05:26:47 AM
Quote from: Tyr on September 06, 2021, 02:22:41 PMThey will still be the biggest winner of the election, close to doubling their vote share.
How the greens have fallen :(
Title: Re: German Federal Election 2021 - Who will succeed Angela Merkel?
Post by: Syt on September 07, 2021, 08:40:36 AM
Post by: Syt on September 07, 2021, 08:40:36 AM
New poll, per voting district and prediction of seats:
(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/E-r5xHiWUAw13vf?format=jpg&name=large)
(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/E-r5xHiWUAw13vf?format=jpg&name=large)
Title: Re: German Federal Election 2021 - Who will succeed Angela Merkel?
Post by: Valmy on September 07, 2021, 08:50:09 AM
Post by: Valmy on September 07, 2021, 08:50:09 AM
The Saxons love them some AfD.
Title: Re: German Federal Election 2021 - Who will succeed Angela Merkel?
Post by: Sheilbh on September 07, 2021, 08:51:24 AM
Post by: Sheilbh on September 07, 2021, 08:51:24 AM
Red in Bavaria! :o
The CSU must be absolutely livid at the way this is going (so far).
The CSU must be absolutely livid at the way this is going (so far).
Title: Re: German Federal Election 2021 - Who will succeed Angela Merkel?
Post by: Josquius on September 07, 2021, 08:53:44 AM
Post by: Josquius on September 07, 2021, 08:53:44 AM
Fucking Saxony.
Title: Re: German Federal Election 2021 - Who will succeed Angela Merkel?
Post by: Syt on September 07, 2021, 08:55:57 AM
Post by: Syt on September 07, 2021, 08:55:57 AM
Bit surprised that in Leipzig and Dresden (both Saxony) the Greens are leading some districts.
Title: Re: German Federal Election 2021 - Who will succeed Angela Merkel?
Post by: Sheilbh on September 07, 2021, 09:01:48 AM
Post by: Sheilbh on September 07, 2021, 09:01:48 AM
Quote from: Syt on September 07, 2021, 08:55:57 AMIs it not classic hipstery towns in a more poor/deprived area of the country? That may just be my impression of them from hipstery Brits who've been there though :lol:
Bit surprised that in Leipzig and Dresden (both Saxony) the Greens are leading some districts.
Title: Re: German Federal Election 2021 - Who will succeed Angela Merkel?
Post by: Duque de Bragança on September 07, 2021, 09:38:45 AM
Post by: Duque de Bragança on September 07, 2021, 09:38:45 AM
Quote from: Sheilbh on September 07, 2021, 09:01:48 AMQuote from: Syt on September 07, 2021, 08:55:57 AMIs it not classic hipstery towns in a more poor/deprived area of the country? That may just be my impression of them from hipstery Brits who've been there though :lol:
Bit surprised that in Leipzig and Dresden (both Saxony) the Greens are leading some districts.
It's Hip(e)zig it seems. LIpsian hipsters are definitively a plague, if one is to believe the locals. Not sure about Dresden with PEGIDA. :P
OTOH, if there is a part of the former GDR managing the transition to the best it's this one.
Title: Re: German Federal Election 2021 - Who will succeed Angela Merkel?
Post by: Zanza on September 07, 2021, 11:12:13 AM
Post by: Zanza on September 07, 2021, 11:12:13 AM
Maybe we can build a wall around Saxony and Eastern Thuringia and keep Leipzig and Dresden as enclaves similar to Berlin back in the day. An anti-fascist protection wall if you will.
Title: Re: German Federal Election 2021 - Who will succeed Angela Merkel?
Post by: Syt on September 07, 2021, 11:17:54 AM
Post by: Syt on September 07, 2021, 11:17:54 AM
Quote from: Zanza on September 07, 2021, 11:12:13 AM:lol:
Maybe we can build a wall around Saxony and Eastern Thuringia and keep Leipzig and Dresden as enclaves similar to Berlin back in the day. An anti-fascist protection wall if you will.
Title: Re: German Federal Election 2021 - Who will succeed Angela Merkel?
Post by: Josquius on September 07, 2021, 11:58:14 AM
Post by: Josquius on September 07, 2021, 11:58:14 AM
Quote from: Sheilbh on September 07, 2021, 09:01:48 AMYeah, never been myself but thats what I'd guess. I hear Dresden is a pretty nice young city.Quote from: Syt on September 07, 2021, 08:55:57 AMIs it not classic hipstery towns in a more poor/deprived area of the country? That may just be my impression of them from hipstery Brits who've been there though :lol:
Bit surprised that in Leipzig and Dresden (both Saxony) the Greens are leading some districts.
Title: Re: German Federal Election 2021 - Who will succeed Angela Merkel?
Post by: Crazy_Ivan80 on September 07, 2021, 12:01:33 PM
Post by: Crazy_Ivan80 on September 07, 2021, 12:01:33 PM
god forbid that people don't vote the right way in a democracy....
Title: Re: German Federal Election 2021 - Who will succeed Angela Merkel?
Post by: Valmy on September 07, 2021, 12:03:32 PM
Post by: Valmy on September 07, 2021, 12:03:32 PM
Quote from: Crazy_Ivan80 on September 07, 2021, 12:01:33 PM
god forbid that people don't vote the right way in a democracy....
Am I just supposed to plug in whatever whiny victim complex you were going to elaborate on with the "..."? :P
It was a joke man. Chill. Saxons can have their regional party.
Title: Re: German Federal Election 2021 - Who will succeed Angela Merkel?
Post by: Jacob on September 07, 2021, 12:10:38 PM
Post by: Jacob on September 07, 2021, 12:10:38 PM
Quote from: Crazy_Ivan80 on September 07, 2021, 12:01:33 PM
god forbid that people don't vote the right way in a democracy....
Complaining that other people vote the wrong way is pretty common in democracy...
Title: Re: German Federal Election 2021 - Who will succeed Angela Merkel?
Post by: Sheilbh on September 07, 2021, 12:12:30 PM
Post by: Sheilbh on September 07, 2021, 12:12:30 PM
Quote from: Jacob on September 07, 2021, 12:10:38 PMIt'll be a cold day in hell before I forgive the Lib Dems <_<Quote from: Crazy_Ivan80 on September 07, 2021, 12:01:33 PM
god forbid that people don't vote the right way in a democracy....
Complaining that other people vote the wrong way is pretty common in democracy...
Title: Re: German Federal Election 2021 - Who will succeed Angela Merkel?
Post by: Valmy on September 07, 2021, 12:17:10 PM
Post by: Valmy on September 07, 2021, 12:17:10 PM
Quote from: Sheilbh on September 07, 2021, 12:12:30 PMQuote from: Jacob on September 07, 2021, 12:10:38 PMIt'll be a cold day in hell before I forgive the Lib Dems <_<Quote from: Crazy_Ivan80 on September 07, 2021, 12:01:33 PM
god forbid that people don't vote the right way in a democracy....
Complaining that other people vote the wrong way is pretty common in democracy...
Building new buildings will ruin Britain!
Title: Re: German Federal Election 2021 - Who will succeed Angela Merkel?
Post by: Syt on September 08, 2021, 01:29:03 AM
Post by: Syt on September 08, 2021, 01:29:03 AM
Extreme right wing party Der III. Weg (The IIIrd Way) have hung up posters in Munich and Zwickau (Saxony): "Hängt die Grünen" ("Hang the Greens"), with a small print adding that they want people to hang up posters in their party color (green).
Police in Munich removed the posters. In Zwickau, the state prosecutor said they have no reasons to take steps against the posters: yes, they're meant as call to murder, but "the Greens" could refer to politicians or supporters/voters of the Greens, so it's not very concrete and therefore they can not prosecute for incitement to violence. But the city is free to ban the posters, if they choose.
(https://www.tagesspiegel.de/images/foto-1-plakat-iii-weg/27589466/2-format530.jpg)
Police in Munich removed the posters. In Zwickau, the state prosecutor said they have no reasons to take steps against the posters: yes, they're meant as call to murder, but "the Greens" could refer to politicians or supporters/voters of the Greens, so it's not very concrete and therefore they can not prosecute for incitement to violence. But the city is free to ban the posters, if they choose.
(https://www.tagesspiegel.de/images/foto-1-plakat-iii-weg/27589466/2-format530.jpg)
Title: Re: German Federal Election 2021 - Who will succeed Angela Merkel?
Post by: Josquius on September 08, 2021, 03:31:34 AM
Post by: Josquius on September 08, 2021, 03:31:34 AM
QuoteExtreme right wing party Der III. Weg (The IIIrd Way)Surely I'm not the only one to see this and read 'Der III Reich'?
Intentional on their part I suppose?
Quote"Hängt die Grünen" ("Hang the Greens"), with a small print adding that they want people to hang up posters in their party color (green).Sigh.
Police in Munich removed the posters. In Zwickau, the state prosecutor said they have no reasons to take steps against the posters: yes, they're meant as call to murder, but "the Greens" could refer to politicians or supporters/voters of the Greens, so it's not very concrete and therefore they can not prosecute for incitement to violence. But the city is free to ban the posters, if they choose.
Title: Re: German Federal Election 2021 - Who will succeed Angela Merkel?
Post by: Syt on September 08, 2021, 03:35:07 AM
Post by: Syt on September 08, 2021, 03:35:07 AM
In German it's Das Dritte Reich, but yeah, probably not a coincidence, and possibly also a reference to the Three Percenters:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Three_Percenters
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Three_Percenters
Title: Re: German Federal Election 2021 - Who will succeed Angela Merkel?
Post by: Agelastus on September 08, 2021, 05:25:40 AM
Post by: Agelastus on September 08, 2021, 05:25:40 AM
I assume the English expression "hang the (something)" (as in "hang the money" or "hang the cost" when you don't care about the cost or consequences if something needs to be done - or simply don't care about them when specifying a party or similar thing, such as being told "the Greens will object" if you are doing something) exists in German?
Because I would really, really like to read it that way but I don't suppose I can...
Because I would really, really like to read it that way but I don't suppose I can...
Title: Re: German Federal Election 2021 - Who will succeed Angela Merkel?
Post by: Syt on September 08, 2021, 05:31:54 AM
Post by: Syt on September 08, 2021, 05:31:54 AM
Quote from: Agelastus on September 08, 2021, 05:25:40 AM
I assume the English expression "hang the (something)" (as in "hang the money" or "hang the cost" when you don't care about the cost or consequences if something needs to be done - or simply don't care about them when specifying a party or similar thing, such as being told "the Greens will object" if you are doing something) exists in German?
Not really. It would be "Pfeif auf die Kosten!" (whistle on the cost, literally), or - more vulgar - "Scheiß auf die Kosten!" (screw/fuck the cost).
Title: Re: German Federal Election 2021 - Who will succeed Angela Merkel?
Post by: Zanza on September 08, 2021, 05:48:16 AM
Post by: Zanza on September 08, 2021, 05:48:16 AM
The problem is not so much the Nazis of that obscure "3rd Way" party, but the lack of reaction by authorities in Saxony. They should remove the posters and crack down on the Nazis.
Title: Re: German Federal Election 2021 - Who will succeed Angela Merkel?
Post by: Josquius on September 08, 2021, 05:57:13 AM
Post by: Josquius on September 08, 2021, 05:57:13 AM
Quote from: Agelastus on September 08, 2021, 05:25:40 AMCan't say I've ever ran into this expression.
I assume the English expression "hang the (something)" (as in "hang the money" or "hang the cost" when you don't care about the cost or consequences if something needs to be done - or simply don't care about them when specifying a party or similar thing, such as being told "the Greens will object" if you are doing something) exists in German?
Because I would really, really like to read it that way but I don't suppose I can...
The closest I can think of is "X should be hung", which is non literally saying you disapprove strongly of X. Whether it has a neck or not.
Title: Re: German Federal Election 2021 - Who will succeed Angela Merkel?
Post by: Syt on September 08, 2021, 05:58:52 AM
Post by: Syt on September 08, 2021, 05:58:52 AM
Quote from: Zanza on September 08, 2021, 05:48:16 AM
The problem is not so much the Nazis of that obscure "3rd Way" party, but the lack of reaction by authorities in Saxony. They should remove the posters and crack down on the Nazis.
Well yeah, but it is Saxony.
Title: Re: German Federal Election 2021 - Who will succeed Angela Merkel?
Post by: Duque de Bragança on September 08, 2021, 06:21:39 AM
Post by: Duque de Bragança on September 08, 2021, 06:21:39 AM
Quote from: Tyr on September 08, 2021, 05:57:13 AMQuote from: Agelastus on September 08, 2021, 05:25:40 AMCan't say I've ever ran into this expression.
I assume the English expression "hang the (something)" (as in "hang the money" or "hang the cost" when you don't care about the cost or consequences if something needs to be done - or simply don't care about them when specifying a party or similar thing, such as being told "the Greens will object" if you are doing something) exists in German?
Because I would really, really like to read it that way but I don't suppose I can...
The closest I can think of is "X should be hung", which is non literally saying you disapprove strongly of X. Whether it has a neck or not.
Hang, to dry, is greener actually than using dryers. :smarty:
[spoiler]I know it's not what they meant.[/spoiler]
Title: Re: German Federal Election 2021 - Who will succeed Angela Merkel?
Post by: Agelastus on September 08, 2021, 06:56:55 AM
Post by: Agelastus on September 08, 2021, 06:56:55 AM
Quote from: Tyr on September 08, 2021, 05:57:13 AMQuote from: Agelastus on September 08, 2021, 05:25:40 AMCan't say I've ever ran into this expression.
I assume the English expression "hang the (something)" (as in "hang the money" or "hang the cost" when you don't care about the cost or consequences if something needs to be done - or simply don't care about them when specifying a party or similar thing, such as being told "the Greens will object" if you are doing something) exists in German?
Because I would really, really like to read it that way but I don't suppose I can...
The closest I can think of is "X should be hung", which is non literally saying you disapprove strongly of X. Whether it has a neck or not.
Most of the definitions I can find focus on the "hang the cost" usage but it's used in other contexts as well -
https://idioms.thefreedictionary.com/hang
Quotehang (something)
A phrase used when one is being dismissive of something. Primarily heard in UK.
Oh, hang the cost—I just need any hotel room you have.
Apparently not across all the UK though.
Title: Re: German Federal Election 2021 - Who will succeed Angela Merkel?
Post by: Richard Hakluyt on September 08, 2021, 12:44:47 PM
Post by: Richard Hakluyt on September 08, 2021, 12:44:47 PM
It is a familar enough expression to me but I suspect it is archaic.
Title: Re: German Federal Election 2021 - Who will succeed Angela Merkel?
Post by: Zanza on September 09, 2021, 11:29:18 AM
Post by: Zanza on September 09, 2021, 11:29:18 AM
Interesting way to split CDU and CSU, which is usually not done in these surveys. Shows that the CDU is at risk of being the third largest party in the election.
(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/E-ruArzWQAMH6gx?format=jpg&name=large)
(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/E-ruArzWQAMH6gx?format=jpg&name=large)
Title: Re: German Federal Election 2021 - Who will succeed Angela Merkel?
Post by: Syt on September 10, 2021, 12:28:55 PM
Post by: Syt on September 10, 2021, 12:28:55 PM
So the Central Jewish Council in Germany have made an official statement urging people not to vote for the AfD. A snippet of the article in "Die Welt" is there. And AfD members have tried to downplay the Holocaust, with a senior member calling the 12 years of the Third Reich "a bird's poop" (a metaphor for items of insignificance) compared to the 100 year history of Germany. Another influential member bemoaned in reference to the Holocaust memorial in Berlin that Germany was the only nation to put a "Monument of Shame" into the heart of the capital.
Marcel Goldhammer, vice chairman of "Jews in the AfD" now has this poster:
(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/E-6vfsBWUBAQJ3J?format=jpg&name=medium)
Top left: "Against government-financed 'professional Jews' in Germany!"
"Marcel Goldhammer
AfD Candidate for Federal Parliament
- defended Hews while in the IDF
- Vice chair of Jews in the AfD
Jews.
But normal."
(A play on the AfD slogan "Germany. But normal.")
Marcel Goldhammer, vice chairman of "Jews in the AfD" now has this poster:
(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/E-6vfsBWUBAQJ3J?format=jpg&name=medium)
Top left: "Against government-financed 'professional Jews' in Germany!"
"Marcel Goldhammer
AfD Candidate for Federal Parliament
- defended Hews while in the IDF
- Vice chair of Jews in the AfD
Jews.
But normal."
(A play on the AfD slogan "Germany. But normal.")
Title: Re: German Federal Election 2021 - Who will succeed Angela Merkel?
Post by: Jacob on September 10, 2021, 12:39:19 PM
Post by: Jacob on September 10, 2021, 12:39:19 PM
Clever from an alt-right lol-memes haha perspective. Not sure it's going to move the needle for them in any other aspect, though.
Title: Re: German Federal Election 2021 - Who will succeed Angela Merkel?
Post by: Syt on September 12, 2021, 12:45:06 AM
Post by: Syt on September 12, 2021, 12:45:06 AM
Laschet at the CSU party convention in Bavaria: "In all decisions in post-war history the Social Democrats have always been on the wrong side."
This would presumably incoude several coalitions with the conservatives in the past 20 years?
Also, keep in mind Social Democrats voted in favor of criminalizing rape between married partners (many current CDU politicians voted against it in the 90s), allowing women to take jobs without their husband's approval, voted for reunification etc. etc. etc. It's a ridiculously dumb form of hyperbole which mostly seems to prompt a "What have the Romans ever done for us?" response.
This would presumably incoude several coalitions with the conservatives in the past 20 years?
Also, keep in mind Social Democrats voted in favor of criminalizing rape between married partners (many current CDU politicians voted against it in the 90s), allowing women to take jobs without their husband's approval, voted for reunification etc. etc. etc. It's a ridiculously dumb form of hyperbole which mostly seems to prompt a "What have the Romans ever done for us?" response.
Title: Re: German Federal Election 2021 - Who will succeed Angela Merkel?
Post by: Sheilbh on September 12, 2021, 08:55:35 AM
Post by: Sheilbh on September 12, 2021, 08:55:35 AM
The CDU seem to have really gone into old-fashioned red-baiting as things are getting difficult. It's really weird - half expecting a return of some of those 40s and 50s posters.
But also it's Olaf Scholz - I get the fear mongering about a coalition including the left - but surely this just bounces off him. It's like the GOP attacking Joe Biden as a socialist radical despite his entire career :lol:
But also it's Olaf Scholz - I get the fear mongering about a coalition including the left - but surely this just bounces off him. It's like the GOP attacking Joe Biden as a socialist radical despite his entire career :lol:
Title: Re: German Federal Election 2021 - Who will succeed Angela Merkel?
Post by: Syt on September 12, 2021, 09:19:47 AM
Post by: Syt on September 12, 2021, 09:19:47 AM
It seems that's all they have at this point. They've been warning of a left shift for weeks and months now - never mind that they have a candidate in Thuringia in Maaßen whose opinions would be right at home in AfD and where the CDU is refusing to draw a line (a CDU politician who refused to endorse him caught flak, meanwhile a local neo-nazi endorsed Maaßen, with very limited commentary from the CDU). This is also before the background of various right wing, racist, and neo-nazi chat rooms and networks within police and military becoming publicized almost every other week, or the mentioned (lack of) reaction by the executive re: "Hang the Greens" posters.
Title: Re: German Federal Election 2021 - Who will succeed Angela Merkel?
Post by: Syt on September 14, 2021, 06:15:08 AM
Post by: Syt on September 14, 2021, 06:15:08 AM
Judges in Zwickau have ruled that the "Hang the Greens" campaign posters can go up again, provided they're at least 100 meters from campaign posters of the Greens.
Title: Re: German Federal Election 2021 - Who will succeed Angela Merkel?
Post by: Duque de Bragança on September 14, 2021, 08:11:39 AM
Post by: Duque de Bragança on September 14, 2021, 08:11:39 AM
Quote from: Syt on September 14, 2021, 06:15:08 AM
Judges in Zwickau have ruled that the "Hang the Greens" campaign posters can go up again, provided they're at least 100 meters from campaign posters of the Greens.
Waiting for the judgment from Karl-Marx Stadt judges, now Chemnitz (not far from Zwickau and bigger), to form an opinion.
Title: Re: German Federal Election 2021 - Who will succeed Angela Merkel?
Post by: alfred russel on September 14, 2021, 08:23:29 AM
Post by: alfred russel on September 14, 2021, 08:23:29 AM
Is a SPD-Greens-Left coalition possible? it seems likely SPD is the biggest party, but with the greens will by shy of a majority. Is the left off limits?
Title: Re: German Federal Election 2021 - Who will succeed Angela Merkel?
Post by: Syt on September 19, 2021, 02:28:19 AM
Post by: Syt on September 19, 2021, 02:28:19 AM
Flashback: Merkel in November 1990 with fishermen on the East German island of Rügen:
(https://i.redd.it/ee6bbukx4co71.jpg)
I think Merkel was, in terms of foreign affairs, a decent chancellor. However, domestically I feel she stood for stagnation and staying the course. The problem is, Scholz and Laschet look like they will be basically more of the same.
Meanwhile, Germany ranks 21/28 in digitalization in the EU: https://www.dw.com/en/germany-and-digitalization-why-cant-europes-richest-country-get-up-to-speed/a-58273979
(https://i.redd.it/ee6bbukx4co71.jpg)
I think Merkel was, in terms of foreign affairs, a decent chancellor. However, domestically I feel she stood for stagnation and staying the course. The problem is, Scholz and Laschet look like they will be basically more of the same.
Meanwhile, Germany ranks 21/28 in digitalization in the EU: https://www.dw.com/en/germany-and-digitalization-why-cant-europes-richest-country-get-up-to-speed/a-58273979
Title: Re: German Federal Election 2021 - Who will succeed Angela Merkel?
Post by: Richard Hakluyt on September 19, 2021, 05:34:12 AM
Post by: Richard Hakluyt on September 19, 2021, 05:34:12 AM
Yes, I think she has benefitted by the contrast between her dignified behaviour and the buffoons running the UK and Trump. I just get this amorphous feeling that Germany is somehow drifting and is adverse to change, but maybe that was the best on offer given all the populist nonsense pervading the west these days :hmm:
Title: Re: German Federal Election 2021 - Who will succeed Angela Merkel?
Post by: Zanza on September 19, 2021, 07:14:11 AM
Post by: Zanza on September 19, 2021, 07:14:11 AM
On foreign policy, Merkel also has some rather big failures, e.g.:
a) the unopposed rise of Orban's autocracy, which was criticized way too late by Merkel's EPP
b) Schäuble's handling of the Eurozone debt crisis where something similar to the now planned Corona helps would have been better
c) Her unilateral action instead of the usual multilateral approach in the refugee situation of 2015, which led to a strong AfD and considerable strife within the EU and a shitty deal with Erdogan (and tacit acceptance of thousands drowning each year)
d) Her support for Nordstream 2, which I feel does not serve German, only Russian interests and wasting political capital with Biden for this
Also a hypothetical: She wanted to join Bush in Iraq...
That said, she also created stability (which is typically good in foreign policy) and was a respected interlocutor for many foreign politicians, even e.g. Putin.
a) the unopposed rise of Orban's autocracy, which was criticized way too late by Merkel's EPP
b) Schäuble's handling of the Eurozone debt crisis where something similar to the now planned Corona helps would have been better
c) Her unilateral action instead of the usual multilateral approach in the refugee situation of 2015, which led to a strong AfD and considerable strife within the EU and a shitty deal with Erdogan (and tacit acceptance of thousands drowning each year)
d) Her support for Nordstream 2, which I feel does not serve German, only Russian interests and wasting political capital with Biden for this
Also a hypothetical: She wanted to join Bush in Iraq...
That said, she also created stability (which is typically good in foreign policy) and was a respected interlocutor for many foreign politicians, even e.g. Putin.
Title: Re: German Federal Election 2021 - Who will succeed Angela Merkel?
Post by: Zanza on September 19, 2021, 07:52:53 AM
Post by: Zanza on September 19, 2021, 07:52:53 AM
(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/E_o30pjWEAAOJ2w?format=jpg&name=large)
Current mean of last week's surveys with the change compared to the election five years ago.
Current mean of last week's surveys with the change compared to the election five years ago.
Title: Re: German Federal Election 2021 - Who will succeed Angela Merkel?
Post by: Sheilbh on September 19, 2021, 08:58:58 AM
Post by: Sheilbh on September 19, 2021, 08:58:58 AM
Quote from: Richard Hakluyt on September 19, 2021, 05:34:12 AMYeah I think she is flattered by contrasts around her - and not just Trump and Johnson, but also Blair, Bush and Berlusconi when she came to office, Hollande and Sarko in the Elysee. Really good piece in the New Statesman on Merkel.
Yes, I think she has benefitted by the contrast between her dignified behaviour and the buffoons running the UK and Trump. I just get this amorphous feeling that Germany is somehow drifting and is adverse to change, but maybe that was the best on offer given all the populist nonsense pervading the west these days :hmm:
But I agree on the sense of drifting - it feels very weird to me to see a leader leave office with political capital intact. She's still hugely popular and there's, from my understanding, no doubt that she would win re-election if she stood. Which does raise the sort of - what was it all for/what was the point question. I'd also add that in general I think populism is a reaction, a symptom of a failure of a politics (or the removal of too much from politics) - so I'd maybe give it a decade before judging because I agree on that sense of drift and it's something you wonder about at the next crisis if things left unaddressed or unfixed may be exposed (I think in particular of the very comfortable decade we had in the UK before the financial crisis).
And I think it stored up issues such as coal and the car industry/support for diesel which will be a huge challenge for her successor in the goal to reach net zero, because I think the time when we could, as Merkel did, adopt a cautious, conservative approach waiting for consensus to build is rapidly running out.
On foreign policy I basically agree with Zanza - and I'd add Germany's China policy because I think Germany, among big Western economies, is particularly exposed to China and I think a more cautious approach might have been better. I'd put a little more blame for Orban because I think the CDU/CSU enabled his rise and continued strength because of commercial interests. Obviously I think her policy on the Eurozone was a disaster - and I still don't think the structures are in place to deal with another crisis (which is a bit part of why I hope the SPD wins - and why I think the FDP in government at this point is basically a systemic risk for the Euro).
I also think it matters that for the first time since WW2 a country in Europe invaded another to annex territory during Merkel's term of office and I don't think there's been an appropriate European response or, given that NS2 continues, German response - there were very limited consequences for that.
Title: Re: German Federal Election 2021 - Who will succeed Angela Merkel?
Post by: Zanza on September 19, 2021, 09:56:06 AM
Post by: Zanza on September 19, 2021, 09:56:06 AM
The big exposure of the German economy to China was created based on private initiative. What exactly could Merkel have done so that e.g. Volkswagen sells less cars in China, more elsewhere?
Coal is just a question of time now, the latest by 2038, probably earlier. If anything, Merkel's decision to phase out nuclear to win points against the Greens looks worse and worse as time goes on...
QuoteAnd I think it stored up issues such as coal and the car industry/support for diesel which will be a huge challenge for her successor in the goal to reach net zeroThe German car industry - at least the three big OEMs, not necessarily the smaller suppliers have moved on, committed 100% on electrification and diesel is just an afterthought these days. The German OEMs tacitly favor the Greens these days as their policies fit their business plans better. :lol:
Coal is just a question of time now, the latest by 2038, probably earlier. If anything, Merkel's decision to phase out nuclear to win points against the Greens looks worse and worse as time goes on...
Title: Re: German Federal Election 2021 - Who will succeed Angela Merkel?
Post by: Sheilbh on September 19, 2021, 10:27:34 AM
Post by: Sheilbh on September 19, 2021, 10:27:34 AM
Quote from: Zanza on September 19, 2021, 09:56:06 AMSure but there was also a strategic decision (which Merkel initially challenged - meeting the Dalai Lama etc) to let the private sector take the lead and effectively outsource foreign policy to commercial interests - I think the same as happened with Orban but on a far bigger scale. I think supporting that was also lobbyists for corporate interests in the media emphasising the importance of China with minimal pushback from the state which made it difficult to challenge that perception and created a false dichotomy.
The big exposure of the German economy to China was created based on private initiative. What exactly could Merkel have done so that e.g. Volkswagen sells less cars in China, more elsewhere?
Especially when, from my understanding, in terms of profit Europe is still the major profit centre for big German companies like VW or Siemens - Asia (including China) and the US are roughly level pegging. But they sell more units in Asia because they may sell cheaper, older products at volume (which are often locally produced in China). It's the same as Hollywood - businesses want to do business but we shouldn't mistake corporate propaganda/lobbying for state interests and should be willing to push back on and challenge that or at least clearly mark that state interests may not be the same as commercial interests.
QuoteThe German car industry - at least the three big OEMs, not necessarily the smaller suppliers have moved on, committed 100% on electrification and diesel is just an afterthought these days. The German OEMs tacitly favor the Greens these days as their policies fit their business plans better. :lol:I saw a poll that Germans are not convinced by electric cars but very excited by the prospect of hydrogen ones which I think sums up one of the problems everywhere with climate in general of people being enthusiastic for the thing that will help solve the problem but doesn't actually exist rather than the thing that will help solve the problem and does exist :lol:
That's a fair point on electrification - and I think electric vehicle production is now up to about 25% of total by German car manufacturers. But just a couple of years ago it was under 5% and I think judging Merkel's time in office we have to look at the whole time since 2005 not just where we are now. I think the German car industry could have been a leader in this area but doubled down on diesel and the emissions scandal. Again it may not be a Merkel thing, it may just be a CDU/CSU thing but I think there's been a confusion of what is good for industry must be good for Germany.
QuoteCoal is just a question of time now, the latest by 2038, probably earlier. If anything, Merkel's decision to phase out nuclear to win points against the Greens looks worse and worse as time goes on...Yeah - I think the nuclear decision was a very bad one. On coal it's worth noting that the median Paris Agreement compatible timeline to phaseout coal for OECD countries is 2031. The furthest out is non-OECD Asia at 2037, but even that is quicker than current German plans - I think to come close to meeting Germany's commitments it will need to be escalated very significantly which is why I think it stores up a big problem for her successor.
In terms of carbon emissions Germany has moved from a European leader to below the EU average in Merkel's time in office and, as I say, that's not all on her, but I think it does leave big challenges for her successor and I think probably quite unpopular politics
But I think there is a specific thing about Merkel's leadership style interacting with climate because I think on climate the wider attitude in society is often not to push for action - it's too big, it's too complicated, it'll be too challenging. I think Merkel's leadership style is generally not to confront voters or try to get ahead of voters, but to wait and build consensus. So I wonder if her leadership style and general social attitudes on climate sort of feed off each other and slightly spiral into inaction.
Title: Re: German Federal Election 2021 - Who will succeed Angela Merkel?
Post by: Zanza on September 19, 2021, 12:59:14 PM
Post by: Zanza on September 19, 2021, 12:59:14 PM
Maybe I don't get it, but what exactly could the government have done to reduce the private investment in China? China is just the most attractive market of the last decades. Most growth was there. I am not aware of any real instruments the government has to direct private FDI, especially as China is a WTO country.
You could not earn money with electric cars until recently, so there was no real case for expansion of xEV production. And I predict that the German car industry will do fairly well in the xEV market in the next years - at least the OEMs, not necessarily the supply chain.
But again, what could the government have done to accelerate this structural change? Massive subsidies? I guess they should have canceled the tax privilege of diesel fuel, but then diesel actually is better regarding climate change than petrol. The problem with diesel is NOx after all.
On carbon emissions, Merkel failed massively I think. Coal should have been phased out much earlier, nuclear much later. Renewables should have been much further than they are. Also I guess hydrogen - for industry, not cars - should be further.
You could not earn money with electric cars until recently, so there was no real case for expansion of xEV production. And I predict that the German car industry will do fairly well in the xEV market in the next years - at least the OEMs, not necessarily the supply chain.
But again, what could the government have done to accelerate this structural change? Massive subsidies? I guess they should have canceled the tax privilege of diesel fuel, but then diesel actually is better regarding climate change than petrol. The problem with diesel is NOx after all.
On carbon emissions, Merkel failed massively I think. Coal should have been phased out much earlier, nuclear much later. Renewables should have been much further than they are. Also I guess hydrogen - for industry, not cars - should be further.
Title: Re: German Federal Election 2021 - Who will succeed Angela Merkel?
Post by: Sheilbh on September 19, 2021, 02:08:34 PM
Post by: Sheilbh on September 19, 2021, 02:08:34 PM
Quote from: Zanza on September 19, 2021, 12:59:14 PMMaybe - I honestly don't know. But I feel like if it was just private investment and market forces wouldn't other countries be similarly exposed? My understanding is they're not - there's no equivalent in France, Britain, Italy, Japan for VW with 40% of its entire production in China or 1/3 of BMW's. It may be that there's something about German business and the sectors that makes it particularly interested in investing and selling in China, but I think it's probably as likely to be policy support and not just a neutral but an encouraging attitude from the state - which definitely pre-dates Merkel.
Maybe I don't get it, but what exactly could the government have done to reduce the private investment in China? China is just the most attractive market of the last decades. Most growth was there. I am not aware of any real instruments the government has to direct private FDI, especially as China is a WTO country.
In terms of one specific change that might help (not just with China) is allowing corporate criminal liability for corruption under German law as is the case in the UK, US and France. My understanding is at the minute in Germany liability for offering or paying bribes is limited to individuals, a company might be done for a corporate governance issues if they don't have good policies about it but legal entities cannot be criminally liable.
QuoteYou could not earn money with electric cars until recently, so there was no real case for expansion of xEV production. And I predict that the German car industry will do fairly well in the xEV market in the next years - at least the OEMs, not necessarily the supply chain.Yeah - I mean there were huge subsidies and support for diesel that were allowed under EU law and I imagine the German government would have been strongly supportive of those. I think those subsidies probably distorted the market and reduced the incentives to look at alternatives such as electric vehicles - which is why American and Japanese manufacturers moved earlier on them (and perhaps if Germany manufacturers were also working at the same time as the American and Japanese ones the point at which you could make money would have been earlier).
But again, what could the government have done to accelerate this structural change? Massive subsidies? I guess they should have canceled the tax privilege of diesel fuel, but then diesel actually is better regarding climate change than petrol. The problem with diesel is NOx after all.
And I think the subsidies were available for new car purchases - though I could be wrong - and while it's right that diesel is better from an environmental perspective (setting aside the health impacts), my understanding is that buying a new car as opposed to a used is always worse from an emissions perspective no matter how clean it is.
Title: Re: German Federal Election 2021 - Who will succeed Angela Merkel?
Post by: Zanza on September 19, 2021, 02:59:43 PM
Post by: Zanza on September 19, 2021, 02:59:43 PM
On China business: The exposure of German car companies to China is not that unusual. China is the biggest market for GM (more than a third) or Nissan (more than a third). Some others have a broader footprint, e.g. Toyota, Ford.
In general, the industrial products like machinery or chemistry that Germany sells is what China wanted.
On bribery: OK, no idea if it is possible to penalize German companies for that. If not, I agree with you that it should be possible. Definitely possible for them to have criminal liability for fraud of their employees. But then, I hope the suggestion is not that the foundation of German exports to China is just bribery. Does not seem to explain sales to customers and the many private companies in China...
On diesel subsidies: I do not know enough about that to discuss it to be honest.
On xEV development: Few companies were actually ahead of the German OEMs,but anyway, short of very heavy market intervention I do not see how the government could have accelerated this significantly.
In general, the industrial products like machinery or chemistry that Germany sells is what China wanted.
On bribery: OK, no idea if it is possible to penalize German companies for that. If not, I agree with you that it should be possible. Definitely possible for them to have criminal liability for fraud of their employees. But then, I hope the suggestion is not that the foundation of German exports to China is just bribery. Does not seem to explain sales to customers and the many private companies in China...
On diesel subsidies: I do not know enough about that to discuss it to be honest.
On xEV development: Few companies were actually ahead of the German OEMs,but anyway, short of very heavy market intervention I do not see how the government could have accelerated this significantly.
Title: Re: German Federal Election 2021 - Who will succeed Angela Merkel?
Post by: Sheilbh on September 19, 2021, 05:32:41 PM
Post by: Sheilbh on September 19, 2021, 05:32:41 PM
Quote from: Zanza on September 19, 2021, 02:59:43 PM]On bribery: OK, no idea if it is possible to penalize German companies for that. If not, I agree with you that it should be possible. Definitely possible for them to have criminal liability for fraud of their employees. But then, I hope the suggestion is not that the foundation of German exports to China is just bribery. Does not seem to explain sales to customers and the many private companies in China...No, not the foundation - but I think it might be a factor in certain jurisdictions including China and Hungary that companies can't be criminally liable for bribery. It's something the OECD's been calling for Germany to reform for years and years.
I just double checked an international law firm survey on this. It covered South Africa, 8 APAC, 11 European, 1 Central American, 3 Middle East, 3 North American and 4 South American jurisdictions. The only jurisdictions without corporate criminal liability are Germany, Russia and Turkey - but it looks like there are proposed reforms in Germany which is good news.
Title: Re: German Federal Election 2021 - Who will succeed Angela Merkel?
Post by: Syt on September 22, 2021, 01:43:27 AM
Post by: Syt on September 22, 2021, 01:43:27 AM
If Under 18s could vote in Saxony:
(https://i.postimg.cc/d3ryc1C7/sac.png)
And Thuringia:
(https://i.postimg.cc/28NWFQpn/thur.png)
Source. https://wahlen.u18.org/wahlergebnisse/bundestagswahl-2021
(https://i.postimg.cc/d3ryc1C7/sac.png)
And Thuringia:
(https://i.postimg.cc/28NWFQpn/thur.png)
Source. https://wahlen.u18.org/wahlergebnisse/bundestagswahl-2021
Title: Re: German Federal Election 2021 - Who will succeed Angela Merkel?
Post by: Josquius on September 22, 2021, 02:33:43 AM
Post by: Josquius on September 22, 2021, 02:33:43 AM
That's encouraging I guess.. Still, more young ignorant cunts than there should be. Thurungia in particular seems worm brained. How on earth are afd on top...
The colours suck on that chart.
The colours suck on that chart.
Title: Re: German Federal Election 2021 - Who will succeed Angela Merkel?
Post by: Admiral Yi on September 22, 2021, 02:42:42 AM
Post by: Admiral Yi on September 22, 2021, 02:42:42 AM
That's horrifying. Skinhead nation.
Title: Re: German Federal Election 2021 - Who will succeed Angela Merkel?
Post by: The Larch on September 22, 2021, 05:07:39 AM
Post by: The Larch on September 22, 2021, 05:07:39 AM
So Die Linke is the party for old fogeys nostalgic for the good ol' times, right?
Title: Re: German Federal Election 2021 - Who will succeed Angela Merkel?
Post by: Zanza on September 22, 2021, 05:19:54 AM
Post by: Zanza on September 22, 2021, 05:19:54 AM
Quote from: The Larch on September 22, 2021, 05:07:39 AMMost German parties fit that description. :P
So Die Linke is the party for old fogeys nostalgic for the good ol' times, right?
Title: Re: German Federal Election 2021 - Who will succeed Angela Merkel?
Post by: The Larch on September 22, 2021, 05:35:47 AM
Post by: The Larch on September 22, 2021, 05:35:47 AM
Quote from: Zanza on September 22, 2021, 05:19:54 AMQuote from: The Larch on September 22, 2021, 05:07:39 AMMost German parties fit that description. :P
So Die Linke is the party for old fogeys nostalgic for the good ol' times, right?
For AfD it'd be the really old times, I guess. :P
Title: Re: German Federal Election 2021 - Who will succeed Angela Merkel?
Post by: Duque de Bragança on September 22, 2021, 07:39:25 AM
Post by: Duque de Bragança on September 22, 2021, 07:39:25 AM
Quote from: The Larch on September 22, 2021, 05:35:47 AMQuote from: Zanza on September 22, 2021, 05:19:54 AMQuote from: The Larch on September 22, 2021, 05:07:39 AMMost German parties fit that description. :P
So Die Linke is the party for old fogeys nostalgic for the good ol' times, right?
For AfD it'd be the really old times, I guess. :P
That's a bit harsh for Bismarck. :P
Title: Re: German Federal Election 2021 - Who will succeed Angela Merkel?
Post by: Habbaku on September 22, 2021, 10:47:38 AM
Post by: Habbaku on September 22, 2021, 10:47:38 AM
Quote from: Syt on September 22, 2021, 01:43:27 AM
If Under 18s could vote in Saxony:
FDP :yeah:
Title: Re: German Federal Election 2021 - Who will succeed Angela Merkel?
Post by: Syt on September 22, 2021, 11:17:16 AM
Post by: Syt on September 22, 2021, 11:17:16 AM
Quote from: Habbaku on September 22, 2021, 10:47:38 AMQuote from: Syt on September 22, 2021, 01:43:27 AM
If Under 18s could vote in Saxony:
FDP :yeah:
In Thuringia the FDP man Kemmerich was minister president for a hot five minutes. After tactical shenanigans he was voted into office with votes from (among others) the AfD which led to such an outcry that eventually he (and others, like the CDU chairwoman at the time) resigned. You can read about it here: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020_Thuringian_government_crisis
Title: Re: German Federal Election 2021 - Who will succeed Angela Merkel?
Post by: Habbaku on September 22, 2021, 11:20:58 AM
Post by: Habbaku on September 22, 2021, 11:20:58 AM
:D I'm actually already, unfortunately, familiar with the story thanks to Economist reporting last year. Thanks, though.
Title: Re: German Federal Election 2021 - Who will succeed Angela Merkel?
Post by: Zanza on September 22, 2021, 11:30:41 AM
Post by: Zanza on September 22, 2021, 11:30:41 AM
I voted today! :)
Title: Re: German Federal Election 2021 - Who will succeed Angela Merkel?
Post by: Josquius on September 22, 2021, 01:09:11 PM
Post by: Josquius on September 22, 2021, 01:09:11 PM
Quote from: Zanza on September 22, 2021, 11:30:41 AMAfd?
I voted today! :)
Title: Re: German Federal Election 2021 - Who will succeed Angela Merkel?
Post by: Zanza on September 22, 2021, 01:09:57 PM
Post by: Zanza on September 22, 2021, 01:09:57 PM
No
Title: Re: German Federal Election 2021 - Who will succeed Angela Merkel?
Post by: Sheilbh on September 22, 2021, 01:44:08 PM
Post by: Sheilbh on September 22, 2021, 01:44:08 PM
Quote from: Tyr on September 22, 2021, 02:33:43 AMNot sure it's hugely encouraging :blink:
That's encouraging I guess.. Still, more young ignorant cunts than there should be. Thurungia in particular seems worm brained. How on earth are afd on top...
The colours suck on that chart.
I think there's even more extreme polling in France - where young people are basically most likely to support Le Pen/RN or Melenchon/the far left :lol: :bleeding:
Title: Re: German Federal Election 2021 - Who will succeed Angela Merkel?
Post by: Syt on September 22, 2021, 02:30:41 PM
Post by: Syt on September 22, 2021, 02:30:41 PM
If you compare with you will see that nowhere in the West the AfD would get over 10% among under 18s.
Title: Re: German Federal Election 2021 - Who will succeed Angela Merkel?
Post by: Sheilbh on September 23, 2021, 04:24:20 AM
Post by: Sheilbh on September 23, 2021, 04:24:20 AM
Is there any polling on the Berlin housing referendum?
Title: Re: German Federal Election 2021 - Who will succeed Angela Merkel?
Post by: Duque de Bragança on September 23, 2021, 05:10:44 AM
Post by: Duque de Bragança on September 23, 2021, 05:10:44 AM
Quote from: Sheilbh on September 22, 2021, 01:44:08 PMQuote from: Tyr on September 22, 2021, 02:33:43 AMNot sure it's hugely encouraging :blink:
That's encouraging I guess.. Still, more young ignorant cunts than there should be. Thurungia in particular seems worm brained. How on earth are afd on top...
The colours suck on that chart.
I think there's even more extreme polling in France - where young people are basically most likely to support Le Pen/RN or Melenchon/the far left :lol: :bleeding:
Plus Zemmour. ;) As for Mélenchon, islamo-leftist is more accurate than far-left. :P
Title: Re: German Federal Election 2021 - Who will succeed Angela Merkel?
Post by: Josquius on September 23, 2021, 05:21:22 AM
Post by: Josquius on September 23, 2021, 05:21:22 AM
Quote from: Sheilbh on September 22, 2021, 01:44:08 PMI'm just counting a quarter are nazis.Quote from: Tyr on September 22, 2021, 02:33:43 AMNot sure it's hugely encouraging :blink:
That's encouraging I guess.. Still, more young ignorant cunts than there should be. Thurungia in particular seems worm brained. How on earth are afd on top...
The colours suck on that chart.
I think there's even more extreme polling in France - where young people are basically most likely to support Le Pen/RN or Melenchon/the far left :lol: :bleeding:
Given under 18s tend towards extremes and the radicalisation of kids is a big growing problem its good that they remain firmly in the minority. With time and reality many of them should chill.
Title: Re: German Federal Election 2021 - Who will succeed Angela Merkel?
Post by: Syt on September 25, 2021, 03:19:36 AM
Post by: Syt on September 25, 2021, 03:19:36 AM
Most pressing problems in the eyes of German population:
(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FAHdjm6XEAAYTTd?format=jpg&name=small)
From top to bottom:
- Environment and Climate
- Corona
- Foreigners & Refugees
- Social inequality
- Pensions
I don't feel this hierarchy of topics was particularly well represented in the campaign (or its media coverage and TV debates).
(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FAHdjm6XEAAYTTd?format=jpg&name=small)
From top to bottom:
- Environment and Climate
- Corona
- Foreigners & Refugees
- Social inequality
- Pensions
I don't feel this hierarchy of topics was particularly well represented in the campaign (or its media coverage and TV debates).
Title: Re: German Federal Election 2021 - Who will succeed Angela Merkel?
Post by: Zanza on September 25, 2021, 10:07:12 AM
Post by: Zanza on September 25, 2021, 10:07:12 AM
That's probably a question with predefined answers. If you ask people openly, the most pressing issues are typically rent, school/kindergarten and traffic/public transport. Daily problems.
Title: Re: German Federal Election 2021 - Who will succeed Angela Merkel?
Post by: Syt on September 25, 2021, 10:40:14 AM
Post by: Syt on September 25, 2021, 10:40:14 AM
That's fair.
Meanwhile:
https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/german-millionaires-rush-assets-switzerland-ahead-election-2021-09-24/
Meanwhile:
https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/german-millionaires-rush-assets-switzerland-ahead-election-2021-09-24/
QuoteGerman millionaires rush assets to Switzerland ahead of election
ZURICH, Sept 24 (Reuters) - A potential lurch to the left in Germany's election on Sunday is scaring millionaires into moving assets into Switzerland, bankers and tax lawyers say.
If the centre-left Social Democrats (SPD), hard-left Linke and environmentalist Greens come to power, the reintroduction of a wealth tax and a tightening of inheritance tax could be on the political agenda.
"For the super-rich, this is red hot," said a German-based tax lawyer with extensive Swiss operations. "Entrepreneurial families are highly alarmed."
The move shows how many rich people still see Switzerland as an attractive place to park wealth, despite its efforts to abolish its image as a billionaires' safe haven.
No country has more offshore assets than Switzerland and inflows accelerated in 2020, to the benefit of big banks such as UBS (UBSG.S), Credit Suisse (CSGN.S) and Julius Baer (BAER.S). Geopolitical tensions and fears of the COVID-19 pandemic's economic fallout made Switzerland's political stability attractive.
Bank for International Settlements data show deposits of German households and companies at banks in Switzerland climbed almost $5 billion to $37.5 billion in the first quarter of 2021, and this does not include shares, bonds or financial products.
More recent figures are not available, but insiders say the inflows have continued. "I have booked an above-average amount of new money as in the past three months," said a veteran client adviser at a large Swiss bank who deals mainly with Germans.
"Many wealthy people, especially entrepreneurs, fear that there will be a lurch to the left in Germany - no matter how the elections turn out," says Florian Dürselen, head of Europe at wealth manager LGT Switzerland.
One top Swiss banker said: "I know a number of German entrepreneurs who want to have a foothold outside Germany if things get too red (leftist) there."
TAX ON ASSETS
A poll on Thursday showed the SPD, on 25%, leading outgoing Chancellor Angela Merkel's conservatives by four points.
The SPD wants to reintroduce a wealth tax and increase inheritance tax, while the Greens - a likely potential coalition partner - plan to tax fortunes more heavily. Although both envision raising income tax for top earners, a tax on assets would raise much more money, the tax lawyer said.
He was seeing increased demand for advice from clients, he said, noting some entrepreneurs had sought to protect themselves by making new investments through a company in Switzerland or transferring assets to a foundation in Liechtenstein.
Simply transferring cash to a Swiss bank account, on the other hand, no longer helps. Under immense international pressure, the Swiss now share such account data with tax authorities in clients' home countries.
"Switzerland as a financial centre is characterized by stability, legal security and a high level of financial competence. However, it does not offer any protection against tax evasion," said a spokesperson for the State Secretariat for International Financial Matters (SIF).
LGT's Dürselen said he recently spoke with a German entrepreneur who feared Germany could soon tax foreign assets or transactions harshly, which fostered the view of Switzerland as a safe haven for capital.
"Personally, I assume that considerable assets will continue to be moved to Switzerland," he said.
One local politician said dozens of wealthy German entrepreneurs have inquired in recent months about residing in one of the low-tax suburbs along Lake Zurich.
Title: Re: German Federal Election 2021 - Who will succeed Angela Merkel?
Post by: Sheilbh on September 25, 2021, 01:23:28 PM
Post by: Sheilbh on September 25, 2021, 01:23:28 PM
Given how the campaign's gone it's starting to feel like an election the CDU has to lose - but from the Economist widget and things like that it doesn't seem implausible that they might actually win.
I was never a massive fan of the Thatcher = Merkel thing in the early days of her leadership (a sign of the paucity of imagination of Anglo-American hacks, and the paucity of female leaders) but you sort of wonder if Laschet is a bit of a Major figure. Major was a very effective campaigner in 92 - but then had to deal with Black Wednesday and five years of mounting sleaze scandals plus constant rows with his backbenchers given the small majority. Looking back I think most Tories think it would've been better if they'd lost in 92 and similarly it feels like if Laschet were to win accidentally it wouldn't be a happy term for the CDU (and especially CSU). Maybe it'd be fine :hmm:
I was never a massive fan of the Thatcher = Merkel thing in the early days of her leadership (a sign of the paucity of imagination of Anglo-American hacks, and the paucity of female leaders) but you sort of wonder if Laschet is a bit of a Major figure. Major was a very effective campaigner in 92 - but then had to deal with Black Wednesday and five years of mounting sleaze scandals plus constant rows with his backbenchers given the small majority. Looking back I think most Tories think it would've been better if they'd lost in 92 and similarly it feels like if Laschet were to win accidentally it wouldn't be a happy term for the CDU (and especially CSU). Maybe it'd be fine :hmm:
Title: Re: German Federal Election 2021 - Who will succeed Angela Merkel?
Post by: Zanza on September 25, 2021, 02:21:41 PM
Post by: Zanza on September 25, 2021, 02:21:41 PM
Laschet is a terrible campaigner though and I doubt the Conservatives could get more sleazy than in the last term (masks, Azerbaijan Amthor).
Title: Re: German Federal Election 2021 - Who will succeed Angela Merkel?
Post by: Sheilbh on September 25, 2021, 02:35:24 PM
Post by: Sheilbh on September 25, 2021, 02:35:24 PM
Also they just feel tired - from here all I've seen is red-bashing and it feels like they could do with a period out of office to re-fresh, look at some fresh talent etc.
Title: Re: German Federal Election 2021 - Who will succeed Angela Merkel?
Post by: The Larch on September 25, 2021, 05:40:05 PM
Post by: The Larch on September 25, 2021, 05:40:05 PM
Quote from: Zanza on September 25, 2021, 02:21:41 PM
Laschet is a terrible campaigner though and I doubt the Conservatives could get more sleazy than in the last term (masks, Azerbaijan Amthor).
Could you explain that a bit further, for those of us not too well versed in German political scandals?
Title: Re: German Federal Election 2021 - Who will succeed Angela Merkel?
Post by: Zanza on September 26, 2021, 01:11:17 AM
Post by: Zanza on September 26, 2021, 01:11:17 AM
They had 20 or 30 MPs who did shady mask deals with the Conservative-led health ministry early when masks were unavailable. Basically they enriched themselves. Probably not criminal, but several left parliament/party over this.
Azerbaijan bribed some MEPs and MPs to act in its interests. You know the country ruled by a tinpot dictator that just fought a war and them did ethic cleansing in Karabakh.
A German list, but you will notice the party membership.
(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/E2K5PukX0AAIr3U?format=jpg&name=medium)
PS: The SPD guy on the list only did this after having left politics.
Amthor is the oldest 20-something in the world and a poster child for the phrase "punchable face". He was paid by a shady company to lobby the economy minister but denied this until he could noonger deny it. Recently he lobbied on behalf of Tiktok of all things, which is just weird. :wacko:
What we call a Backpfeifengesicht in German:
(https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/f/ff/Philipp_Amthor.jpg/170px-Philipp_Amthor.jpg)
Azerbaijan bribed some MEPs and MPs to act in its interests. You know the country ruled by a tinpot dictator that just fought a war and them did ethic cleansing in Karabakh.
A German list, but you will notice the party membership.
(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/E2K5PukX0AAIr3U?format=jpg&name=medium)
PS: The SPD guy on the list only did this after having left politics.
Amthor is the oldest 20-something in the world and a poster child for the phrase "punchable face". He was paid by a shady company to lobby the economy minister but denied this until he could noonger deny it. Recently he lobbied on behalf of Tiktok of all things, which is just weird. :wacko:
What we call a Backpfeifengesicht in German:
(https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/f/ff/Philipp_Amthor.jpg/170px-Philipp_Amthor.jpg)
Title: Re: German Federal Election 2021 - Who will succeed Angela Merkel?
Post by: Syt on September 26, 2021, 02:01:01 AM
Post by: Syt on September 26, 2021, 02:01:01 AM
Amthor always reminds me of Simon from The Chipmunks.
(https://encrypted-tbn0.gstatic.com/images?q=tbn:ANd9GcQWVu1VWNcGtWzTA6lJQTXqicHIXwI-lVThGLMa2DGEvVAkrl9jdImQ9EMO9mmS3A6v7Ks&usqp=CAU)
(https://encrypted-tbn0.gstatic.com/images?q=tbn:ANd9GcQWVu1VWNcGtWzTA6lJQTXqicHIXwI-lVThGLMa2DGEvVAkrl9jdImQ9EMO9mmS3A6v7Ks&usqp=CAU)
Title: Re: German Federal Election 2021 - Who will succeed Angela Merkel?
Post by: Syt on September 26, 2021, 02:16:57 AM
Post by: Syt on September 26, 2021, 02:16:57 AM
What annoys me the most is that these CDU affairs disappear quickly from the media with minimal consequences, but for Baerbock there were drawn out debates whether she got her Master's degree correctly (she did), or whether she wants to cut pensions (she doesn't). She also had plagiarism accusations with regards to passages in a book leveled at her (somewhat justified) that caught a lot more media attention than Laschet's similar case brought up not much later (his book was written by ghostwriters).
There was e.g. no mention that in 2015 Laschet basically made up the results of an exam in a university course he was holding. The tests had "disappeared in the mail" and he was "reconstructing the grades" from his notes. Eventually, all grades of the course were cancelled, and he never held courses at that university again while the university changed their process to always make copies of tests. At the time it didn't draw much attention outside his home state, and it was shortly before the refugee crisis became the leading news story. It was only brought up by some people who were joking that his slogan "2015 must not repeat" referred to his grades affair. :P
Also, a court recently decided that the clearing of a protest camp at the site of a planned open pit coal mine in 2018 ago was illegal. One of the key points was that the camp was cleared claiming "fire hazard" and there was later documentation of Laschet saying that he "needs a pretense" to clear the camp. This, also, was but a blip.
Not that Laschet didn't enough during the campaign itself to show that he was not a good candidate.
I guess it's part "it's not so bad when MY party does it" and part "we expect the CDU to be corrupt, but we expect better from the others".
There was e.g. no mention that in 2015 Laschet basically made up the results of an exam in a university course he was holding. The tests had "disappeared in the mail" and he was "reconstructing the grades" from his notes. Eventually, all grades of the course were cancelled, and he never held courses at that university again while the university changed their process to always make copies of tests. At the time it didn't draw much attention outside his home state, and it was shortly before the refugee crisis became the leading news story. It was only brought up by some people who were joking that his slogan "2015 must not repeat" referred to his grades affair. :P
Also, a court recently decided that the clearing of a protest camp at the site of a planned open pit coal mine in 2018 ago was illegal. One of the key points was that the camp was cleared claiming "fire hazard" and there was later documentation of Laschet saying that he "needs a pretense" to clear the camp. This, also, was but a blip.
Not that Laschet didn't enough during the campaign itself to show that he was not a good candidate.
I guess it's part "it's not so bad when MY party does it" and part "we expect the CDU to be corrupt, but we expect better from the others".
Title: Re: German Federal Election 2021 - Who will succeed Angela Merkel?
Post by: The Larch on September 26, 2021, 05:19:41 AM
Post by: The Larch on September 26, 2021, 05:19:41 AM
Danke Zanza. :)
That guy is in his 20s? Really? :wacko:
That guy is in his 20s? Really? :wacko:
Title: Re: German Federal Election 2021 - Who will succeed Angela Merkel?
Post by: Zanza on September 26, 2021, 06:12:13 AM
Post by: Zanza on September 26, 2021, 06:12:13 AM
Laschet is incapable of folding paper right. You are supposed to fold your ballot so that your vote is not visible.
(https://cdn.prod.www.spiegel.de/images/b6cd31aa-3bad-41a7-94c3-beba880096a4_w948_r1.778_fpx50.27_fpy50.jpg)
(https://cdn.prod.www.spiegel.de/images/b6cd31aa-3bad-41a7-94c3-beba880096a4_w948_r1.778_fpx50.27_fpy50.jpg)
Title: Re: German Federal Election 2021 - Who will succeed Angela Merkel?
Post by: Malicious Intent on September 26, 2021, 06:57:35 AM
Post by: Malicious Intent on September 26, 2021, 06:57:35 AM
Ugh, this was the worst election I could ever vote in. Reminded me of the tagline from Aliens vs Predator: "Whoever wins, we lose."
Title: Re: German Federal Election 2021 - Who will succeed Angela Merkel?
Post by: Malicious Intent on September 26, 2021, 07:04:08 AM
Post by: Malicious Intent on September 26, 2021, 07:04:08 AM
Quote from: The Larch on September 26, 2021, 05:19:41 AM
Danke Zanza. :)
That guy is in his 20s? Really? :wacko:
He was seen as a rising star within the CDU. He has suffered a temporary setback, but it is as Syt said: CDU affairs tend to be quickly forgotten. I have little doubt, that Amthor will continue to ooze his way to the top. :yucky:
Title: Re: German Federal Election 2021 - Who will succeed Angela Merkel?
Post by: Syt on September 26, 2021, 07:39:07 AM
Post by: Syt on September 26, 2021, 07:39:07 AM
Hey, MI. :)
As the saying goes, CDU members are born 40 years old. :P
Also, Merz made it back, and von Guttenberg almost did :x
As the saying goes, CDU members are born 40 years old. :P
Also, Merz made it back, and von Guttenberg almost did :x
Title: Re: German Federal Election 2021 - Who will succeed Angela Merkel?
Post by: Sheilbh on September 26, 2021, 07:44:42 AM
Post by: Sheilbh on September 26, 2021, 07:44:42 AM
Incidentally I am obsessed with that Merz advert that starts with an ad he did in, I think, 1994. Just a huge fan of the soundtrack and vibe of German mid-90s politics it turns out....
Title: Re: German Federal Election 2021 - Who will succeed Angela Merkel?
Post by: Zanza on September 26, 2021, 11:55:28 AM
Post by: Zanza on September 26, 2021, 11:55:28 AM
Too close to tell at this moment. Conservatives and Social Democrats are head-to-head and both need Greens and Liberals to govern.
(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FAOQjOlUUAE3tQL?format=jpg&name=large)
(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FAOQjOlUUAE3tQL?format=jpg&name=large)
Title: Re: German Federal Election 2021 - Who will succeed Angela Merkel?
Post by: Zanza on September 26, 2021, 12:18:07 PM
Post by: Zanza on September 26, 2021, 12:18:07 PM
Looks like the Danish minority party won a seat. :lol:
Title: Re: German Federal Election 2021 - Who will succeed Angela Merkel?
Post by: Sheilbh on September 26, 2021, 12:19:22 PM
Post by: Sheilbh on September 26, 2021, 12:19:22 PM
Exciting - really don't want the FDP near government but seems inevitable.
Plus it seems like there's probably a bit of a split between CDU and CSU on whether or not to try and form a government if they don't win, which makes sense I suppose.
Plus it seems like there's probably a bit of a split between CDU and CSU on whether or not to try and form a government if they don't win, which makes sense I suppose.
Title: Re: German Federal Election 2021 - Who will succeed Angela Merkel?
Post by: Syt on September 26, 2021, 12:25:00 PM
Post by: Syt on September 26, 2021, 12:25:00 PM
Laschet says he's not happy but aims at forming a government. It's the worst result for the CDU ever.
Title: Re: German Federal Election 2021 - Who will succeed Angela Merkel?
Post by: Habbaku on September 26, 2021, 12:25:08 PM
Post by: Habbaku on September 26, 2021, 12:25:08 PM
Quote from: Zanza on September 26, 2021, 12:18:07 PM
Looks like the Danish minority party won a seat. :lol:
Aren't they guaranteed a certain bit of representation?
Title: Re: German Federal Election 2021 - Who will succeed Angela Merkel?
Post by: Syt on September 26, 2021, 12:26:04 PM
Post by: Syt on September 26, 2021, 12:26:04 PM
Quote from: Habbaku on September 26, 2021, 12:25:08 PMQuote from: Zanza on September 26, 2021, 12:18:07 PM
Looks like the Danish minority party won a seat. :lol:
Aren't they guaranteed a certain bit of representation?
Not sure how it works for the federal parliament, but in Schleswig-Holstein they're exempt from the rule that you need 5% of votes to get into parliament.
Title: Re: German Federal Election 2021 - Who will succeed Angela Merkel?
Post by: Malicious Intent on September 26, 2021, 12:39:23 PM
Post by: Malicious Intent on September 26, 2021, 12:39:23 PM
Quote from: Syt on September 26, 2021, 12:25:00 PM
Laschet says he's not happy but aims at forming a government. It's the worst result for the CDU ever.
If Laschet had any decency, he would take personal responsibility for the CDU's poor performance. When he took over, the CDU was by far the strongest party. Then Laschet completely botched it.
Title: Re: German Federal Election 2021 - Who will succeed Angela Merkel?
Post by: Syt on September 26, 2021, 12:41:39 PM
Post by: Syt on September 26, 2021, 12:41:39 PM
Quote from: Malicious Intent on September 26, 2021, 12:39:23 PM
If Laschet had any decency
:lol:
Title: Re: German Federal Election 2021 - Who will succeed Angela Merkel?
Post by: Syt on September 26, 2021, 12:45:06 PM
Post by: Syt on September 26, 2021, 12:45:06 PM
And it seems like Maaßen is not making it via direct vote. Despite the extreme right endorsing him, AfD doesn't seem to lose votes to him, and CDU moved to SPD, while Linke voters apparently decided to vote tactically SPD to avoid Maaßen getting the direct seat.
(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FAOpFFZWUAIPIFi?format=jpg&name=medium)
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hans-Georg_Maa%C3%9Fen
(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FAOpFFZWUAIPIFi?format=jpg&name=medium)
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hans-Georg_Maa%C3%9Fen
Title: Re: German Federal Election 2021 - Who will succeed Angela Merkel?
Post by: Sheilbh on September 26, 2021, 12:52:23 PM
Post by: Sheilbh on September 26, 2021, 12:52:23 PM
Quote from: Syt on September 26, 2021, 12:25:00 PMAnd, despite the possibility of them forming a government, second worst for the SPD. The two big parties down to 50% by the looks of it.
Laschet says he's not happy but aims at forming a government. It's the worst result for the CDU ever.
I still suspect the Greens will emerge as a third force at some point. But it's pretty striking for now that we're possible in the in-between stage.
Title: Re: German Federal Election 2021 - Who will succeed Angela Merkel?
Post by: Syt on September 26, 2021, 12:54:50 PM
Post by: Syt on September 26, 2021, 12:54:50 PM
Meanwhile, state elections in Mecklenburg-Vorpommern:
(https://www.tagesschau.de/wahl/archiv/2021-09-26-LT-DE-MV/charts/json-standardresult-wahlmonitor/chart_846584.jpg)
(https://www.tagesschau.de/wahl/archiv/2021-09-26-LT-DE-MV/charts/json-standardresult-wahlmonitor/chart_846577.jpg)
And Berlin:
(https://www.tagesschau.de/wahl/archiv/2021-09-26-LT-DE-BE/charts/json-standardresult-wahlmonitor/chart_858859.jpg)
(https://www.tagesschau.de/wahl/archiv/2021-09-26-LT-DE-BE/charts/json-standardresult-wahlmonitor/chart_858852.jpg)
(https://www.tagesschau.de/wahl/archiv/2021-09-26-LT-DE-MV/charts/json-standardresult-wahlmonitor/chart_846584.jpg)
(https://www.tagesschau.de/wahl/archiv/2021-09-26-LT-DE-MV/charts/json-standardresult-wahlmonitor/chart_846577.jpg)
And Berlin:
(https://www.tagesschau.de/wahl/archiv/2021-09-26-LT-DE-BE/charts/json-standardresult-wahlmonitor/chart_858859.jpg)
(https://www.tagesschau.de/wahl/archiv/2021-09-26-LT-DE-BE/charts/json-standardresult-wahlmonitor/chart_858852.jpg)
Title: Re: German Federal Election 2021 - Who will succeed Angela Merkel?
Post by: Syt on September 26, 2021, 12:55:46 PM
Post by: Syt on September 26, 2021, 12:55:46 PM
Quote from: Zanza on September 26, 2021, 12:53:15 PM
:yeah:
Maaßen ist 1 Pimmel!
Get ready to be visited by police some time soon. :P
Title: Re: German Federal Election 2021 - Who will succeed Angela Merkel?
Post by: Zanza on September 26, 2021, 12:57:31 PM
Post by: Zanza on September 26, 2021, 12:57:31 PM
Hehe, I actually wanted to quote you as Sheilbh posted in between.
To make sure that it is understandable that I think Maaßen ist 1 Pimmel
To make sure that it is understandable that I think Maaßen ist 1 Pimmel
Title: Re: German Federal Election 2021 - Who will succeed Angela Merkel?
Post by: Duque de Bragança on September 26, 2021, 01:05:56 PM
Post by: Duque de Bragança on September 26, 2021, 01:05:56 PM
Quote from: Malicious Intent on September 26, 2021, 12:39:23 PMQuote from: Syt on September 26, 2021, 12:25:00 PM
Laschet says he's not happy but aims at forming a government. It's the worst result for the CDU ever.
If Laschet had any decency, he would take personal responsibility for the CDU's poor performance. When he took over, the CDU was by far the strongest party. Then Laschet completely botched it.
Even Söder would have done better.
Title: Re: German Federal Election 2021 - Who will succeed Angela Merkel?
Post by: Zanza on September 26, 2021, 01:30:46 PM
Post by: Zanza on September 26, 2021, 01:30:46 PM
A good result is that both extremes, the Left Party and the AfD lost votes. Too bad that AfD is still in the double digits.
Title: Re: German Federal Election 2021 - Who will succeed Angela Merkel?
Post by: Syt on September 26, 2021, 01:36:41 PM
Post by: Syt on September 26, 2021, 01:36:41 PM
There's been various elections in Austria, too. No big surprises, except that the mayor of Graz (3rd biggest city in Austria) might be a communist (pending coalition talks). :lol:
(https://i.postimg.cc/X7pStjnc/kpg.jpg)
(https://i.postimg.cc/X7pStjnc/kpg.jpg)
Title: Re: German Federal Election 2021 - Who will succeed Angela Merkel?
Post by: Sheilbh on September 26, 2021, 01:41:07 PM
Post by: Sheilbh on September 26, 2021, 01:41:07 PM
Rote....Graz? :mmm: :w00t:
Title: Re: German Federal Election 2021 - Who will succeed Angela Merkel?
Post by: Sheilbh on September 26, 2021, 01:47:12 PM
Post by: Sheilbh on September 26, 2021, 01:47:12 PM
Also wonder if in the future - the way that the FDP were the coalition partner in almost every government until Schroeder's - you'll get the Greens and the FDP agreeing what they want out of coalition negotiations first and then they go to the CDU and SPD to see who'll give it to them? :hmm:
Title: Re: German Federal Election 2021 - Who will succeed Angela Merkel?
Post by: Zanza on September 26, 2021, 01:54:43 PM
Post by: Zanza on September 26, 2021, 01:54:43 PM
There is currently a live TV show with basically the persons in this thread's poll and it is clear that Baerbock and Lindner know that they are the kingmakers.
Title: Re: German Federal Election 2021 - Who will succeed Angela Merkel?
Post by: Zanza on September 26, 2021, 02:39:26 PM
Post by: Zanza on September 26, 2021, 02:39:26 PM
It's interesting that Greens and FDP seem totally sure that they will form the government with one of the bigger parties.
Another possibility...
(https://i.redd.it/z708rd04ovp71.jpg)
Another possibility...
(https://i.redd.it/z708rd04ovp71.jpg)
Title: Re: German Federal Election 2021 - Who will succeed Angela Merkel?
Post by: Sheilbh on September 26, 2021, 02:54:43 PM
Post by: Sheilbh on September 26, 2021, 02:54:43 PM
Interesting - what happened to the AfD vote:
(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FAPFTl-VEAAt-Ek?format=png&name=360x360)
The Greens:
(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FAPFV33WQAI7ng9?format=png&name=360x360)
The FDP:
(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FAPFV3-WEAAjlIs?format=png&name=360x360)
And the CDU:
(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FAPFV37XEAIo-TG?format=png&name=360x360)
Absolutely love the 60,000 AfD-Green swing voters. It reminds me of the (genuine) phenomenon of UKIP-Lib Dem swing voters :lol: :wub:
(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FAPFTl-VEAAt-Ek?format=png&name=360x360)
The Greens:
(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FAPFV33WQAI7ng9?format=png&name=360x360)
The FDP:
(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FAPFV3-WEAAjlIs?format=png&name=360x360)
And the CDU:
(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FAPFV37XEAIo-TG?format=png&name=360x360)
Absolutely love the 60,000 AfD-Green swing voters. It reminds me of the (genuine) phenomenon of UKIP-Lib Dem swing voters :lol: :wub:
Title: Re: German Federal Election 2021 - Who will succeed Angela Merkel?
Post by: Zanza on September 26, 2021, 02:59:39 PM
Post by: Zanza on September 26, 2021, 02:59:39 PM
100.000 persons switched from the Left to the FDP. Amazing. :huh:
Title: Re: German Federal Election 2021 - Who will succeed Angela Merkel?
Post by: Syt on September 26, 2021, 03:05:03 PM
Post by: Syt on September 26, 2021, 03:05:03 PM
Latest estimate:
(https://www.tagesschau.de/wahl/archiv/2021-09-26-BT-DE/charts/json-standardresult-wahlmonitor/chart_872312.jpg)
(https://www.tagesschau.de/wahl/archiv/2021-09-26-BT-DE/charts/json-standardresult-wahlmonitor/chart_872312.jpg)
Title: Re: German Federal Election 2021 - Who will succeed Angela Merkel?
Post by: Sheilbh on September 26, 2021, 03:06:11 PM
Post by: Sheilbh on September 26, 2021, 03:06:11 PM
Quote from: Zanza on September 26, 2021, 02:59:39 PMI love them - voters who exist to confound political science and pollsters :lol:
100.000 persons switched from the Left to the FDP. Amazing. :huh:
Title: Re: German Federal Election 2021 - Who will succeed Angela Merkel?
Post by: Josquius on September 26, 2021, 03:25:44 PM
Post by: Josquius on September 26, 2021, 03:25:44 PM
So the cdu are doing far better than expected it seems?
Title: Re: German Federal Election 2021 - Who will succeed Angela Merkel?
Post by: Sheilbh on September 26, 2021, 03:33:58 PM
Post by: Sheilbh on September 26, 2021, 03:33:58 PM
Interesting under 30 over 60 polls:
https://twitter.com/EuropeElects/status/1442183678235451396?s=20
https://twitter.com/EuropeElects/status/1442183678235451396?s=20
Title: Re: German Federal Election 2021 - Who will succeed Angela Merkel?
Post by: Admiral Yi on September 26, 2021, 03:39:53 PM
Post by: Admiral Yi on September 26, 2021, 03:39:53 PM
Quote from: Sheilbh on September 26, 2021, 12:19:22 PM
Exciting - really don't want the FDP near government but seems inevitable.
Your visceral hatred of centrist parties is weird.
Title: Re: German Federal Election 2021 - Who will succeed Angela Merkel?
Post by: Sheilbh on September 26, 2021, 03:57:39 PM
Post by: Sheilbh on September 26, 2021, 03:57:39 PM
Quote from: Admiral Yi on September 26, 2021, 03:39:53 PMYour visceral hatred of centrist parties is weird.I don't think the FDP are that centrist.
The reason I don't want them near government is that I think they'd want the Finance Ministry and I think Christian Lindner in the Finance Ministry would be a catastrophe for Europe.
Title: Re: German Federal Election 2021 - Who will succeed Angela Merkel?
Post by: Duque de Bragança on September 26, 2021, 04:11:19 PM
Post by: Duque de Bragança on September 26, 2021, 04:11:19 PM
Quote from: Sheilbh on September 26, 2021, 03:57:39 PMQuote from: Admiral Yi on September 26, 2021, 03:39:53 PMYour visceral hatred of centrist parties is weird.I don't think the FDP are that centrist.
The reason I don't want them near government is that I think they'd want the Finance Ministry and I think Christian Lindner in the Finance Ministry would be a catastrophe for Europe.
So centrist à la Macron or "populist" (sic) à la Macron? :P
Title: Re: German Federal Election 2021 - Who will succeed Angela Merkel?
Post by: Sheilbh on September 26, 2021, 04:49:44 PM
Post by: Sheilbh on September 26, 2021, 04:49:44 PM
Re. Graz. I am a massive fan of the Communists' campaign material/design and can confirm this would be sufficient to win my vote:
(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FAPS5WrVcAMzy8k?format=jpg&name=900x900)
Edit: Also looks like referendum in Berlin won - interesting to see the fallout now :hmm:
(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FAPS5WrVcAMzy8k?format=jpg&name=900x900)
Edit: Also looks like referendum in Berlin won - interesting to see the fallout now :hmm:
Title: Re: German Federal Election 2021 - Who will succeed Angela Merkel?
Post by: Valmy on September 26, 2021, 05:54:06 PM
Post by: Valmy on September 26, 2021, 05:54:06 PM
Quote from: Sheilbh on September 26, 2021, 04:49:44 PM
Edit: Also looks like referendum in Berlin won - interesting to see the fallout now :hmm:
My God. The Communists have won Berlin after all.
Title: Re: German Federal Election 2021 - Who will succeed Angela Merkel?
Post by: Duque de Bragança on September 26, 2021, 06:05:55 PM
Post by: Duque de Bragança on September 26, 2021, 06:05:55 PM
Quote from: Valmy on September 26, 2021, 05:54:06 PMQuote from: Sheilbh on September 26, 2021, 04:49:44 PM
Edit: Also looks like referendum in Berlin won - interesting to see the fallout now :hmm:
My God. The Communists have won Berlin after all.
I thought the referendum on rents and nationalisation of private real estates companies was only indicative?
As in the Brexit referendum, but Germany does have a written constitution, unlike the UK, doesn't it? :P
Plus no nationalisation without due compensation, so that's a significant hurdle.
Title: Re: German Federal Election 2021 - Who will succeed Angela Merkel?
Post by: grumbler on September 26, 2021, 06:33:13 PM
Post by: grumbler on September 26, 2021, 06:33:13 PM
Quote from: Zanza on September 26, 2021, 01:11:17 AM
Amthor is the oldest 20-something in the world and a poster child for the phrase "punchable face". He was paid by a shady company to lobby the economy minister but denied this until he could noonger deny it. Recently he lobbied on behalf of Tiktok of all things, which is just weird. :wacko:
What we call a Backpfeifengesicht in German:
(https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/f/ff/Philipp_Amthor.jpg/170px-Philipp_Amthor.jpg)
Wow. I never really got the "punchable face" meme until I saw his picture. That should be in the dictionary as an example.
Title: Re: German Federal Election 2021 - Who will succeed Angela Merkel?
Post by: Syt on September 26, 2021, 10:17:59 PM
Post by: Syt on September 26, 2021, 10:17:59 PM
There seem to be three - on paper - feasible coalitions:
- SPD/FDP/Greens
- CDU/FDP/Greens
- CDU/SPD
Linke don't seem to have won enough seats for a theoretical SPD/Greens/Linke coalition. And while AfD won enough sears to enable a coalition, no one wants them in government.
CDU and SPD are unlikely to want to continue their coalition at this point. FDP have said they want to hold preliminary talks with the Greens.
- SPD/FDP/Greens
- CDU/FDP/Greens
- CDU/SPD
Linke don't seem to have won enough seats for a theoretical SPD/Greens/Linke coalition. And while AfD won enough sears to enable a coalition, no one wants them in government.
CDU and SPD are unlikely to want to continue their coalition at this point. FDP have said they want to hold preliminary talks with the Greens.
Title: Re: German Federal Election 2021 - Who will succeed Angela Merkel?
Post by: Barrister on September 26, 2021, 10:40:18 PM
Post by: Barrister on September 26, 2021, 10:40:18 PM
My German exchange student has been quite interested in the results, and telling me a bit. I've had to break it to him that while I'm no expert, I do know what the major parties are. He's a Green supporter, but has been quite diplomatic when he learned my politics.
Title: Re: German Federal Election 2021 - Who will succeed Angela Merkel?
Post by: Valmy on September 26, 2021, 10:53:49 PM
Post by: Valmy on September 26, 2021, 10:53:49 PM
When he learned you are a fanatical supporter of the NDP you mean? :P
Anyway I take it this means the FDP want to see if they can convince the Greens to partner with the CDU? I seem to recall they didn't want a SPD coalition.
Anyway I take it this means the FDP want to see if they can convince the Greens to partner with the CDU? I seem to recall they didn't want a SPD coalition.
Title: Re: German Federal Election 2021 - Who will succeed Angela Merkel?
Post by: Syt on September 26, 2021, 11:29:36 PM
Post by: Syt on September 26, 2021, 11:29:36 PM
I wonder if the Greens are wary about a coalition with the CDU. In Austria, the Greens have not been looking good in coalition with the ÖVP (kind of the Austrian CDU equivalent), frequently giving in during crisis moments and abandoning old positions to preserve the coalition, despite the outcry from their supporters.
Title: Re: German Federal Election 2021 - Who will succeed Angela Merkel?
Post by: Solmyr on September 27, 2021, 12:58:04 AM
Post by: Solmyr on September 27, 2021, 12:58:04 AM
In Finland, the Greens have not been looking good in coalition with the social democrats either. :P
Title: Re: German Federal Election 2021 - Who will succeed Angela Merkel?
Post by: Syt on September 27, 2021, 01:02:55 AM
Post by: Syt on September 27, 2021, 01:02:55 AM
Btw, looking at the program of the Communists in Graz ... their points wouldn't look too out of place with German Social Democrats in the 1970s (though they would definitely have been on the left wing within the party).
Title: Re: German Federal Election 2021 - Who will succeed Angela Merkel?
Post by: Richard Hakluyt on September 27, 2021, 02:05:03 AM
Post by: Richard Hakluyt on September 27, 2021, 02:05:03 AM
Some nice maps of the election results in this Guardian piece :
https://www.theguardian.com/world/ng-interactive/2021/sep/26/german-election-results-exit-poll-and-possible-coalitions
Noteworthy increase of the SPD vote in the former DDR; also Green strength in the north of the former West Germany.
https://www.theguardian.com/world/ng-interactive/2021/sep/26/german-election-results-exit-poll-and-possible-coalitions
Noteworthy increase of the SPD vote in the former DDR; also Green strength in the north of the former West Germany.
Title: Re: German Federal Election 2021 - Who will succeed Angela Merkel?
Post by: Richard Hakluyt on September 27, 2021, 02:07:02 AM
Post by: Richard Hakluyt on September 27, 2021, 02:07:02 AM
Oh, and the CDU/CSU has done really badly; shows how highly Merkel must have been rated by many conservative voters.
Title: Re: German Federal Election 2021 - Who will succeed Angela Merkel?
Post by: Syt on September 27, 2021, 02:25:01 AM
Post by: Syt on September 27, 2021, 02:25:01 AM
Quote from: Richard Hakluyt on September 27, 2021, 02:05:03 AM
Some nice maps of the election results in this Guardian piece :
https://www.theguardian.com/world/ng-interactive/2021/sep/26/german-election-results-exit-poll-and-possible-coalitions
Noteworthy increase of the SPD vote in the former DDR; also Green strength in the north of the former West Germany.
Interesting to note that the Greens are mainly strong in the cities, and in university towns like Heidelberg and Tübingen.
I guess there were tactical voters in the East, instead of splitting the vote Linke/SPD they voted SPD to try put them in front. IIRC Linke tends to get more direct votes than party list votes, but they don't seem to this time.
As mentioned, controversial CDU member Maaßen failed to books his ticket, but I wonder if he had won if he had started for the AfD (which would fit him much better, in terms of content and positions).
Title: Re: German Federal Election 2021 - Who will succeed Angela Merkel?
Post by: Syt on September 27, 2021, 02:39:16 AM
Post by: Syt on September 27, 2021, 02:39:16 AM
(https://preview.redd.it/axvvfw8azwp71.png?width=640&height=340&crop=smart&auto=webp&s=bb23916fbe9a8fd6194c26cdc24a062e77b1971e)
:lol:
:lol:
Title: Re: German Federal Election 2021 - Who will succeed Angela Merkel?
Post by: Syt on September 27, 2021, 02:41:07 AM
Post by: Syt on September 27, 2021, 02:41:07 AM
Quote from: Richard Hakluyt on September 27, 2021, 02:07:02 AM
Oh, and the CDU/CSU has done really badly; shows how highly Merkel must have been rated by many conservative voters.
I think out of the three options, Laschet was - in hindsight - the weakest. I was actually glad he took over the party instead of Merz (basically a classic neo-con) or Söder (who has hints of populism).
I think Merz would have fared better than Laschet, and Söder better than either of them.
Title: Re: German Federal Election 2021 - Who will succeed Angela Merkel?
Post by: Syt on September 27, 2021, 02:44:15 AM
Post by: Syt on September 27, 2021, 02:44:15 AM
Based on this latest by the Bundeswahlleiter, CDU/CSU and SPD have the same amount of seats at the moment, 206:
https://www.bundeswahlleiter.de/bundestagswahlen/2021/ergebnisse/bund-99.html#sitze2
EDIT: Can't count. :P SPD 206, CDU/CSU 196
Derp.
https://www.bundeswahlleiter.de/bundestagswahlen/2021/ergebnisse/bund-99.html#sitze2
EDIT: Can't count. :P SPD 206, CDU/CSU 196
Derp.
Title: Re: German Federal Election 2021 - Who will succeed Angela Merkel?
Post by: The Larch on September 27, 2021, 04:33:09 AM
Post by: The Larch on September 27, 2021, 04:33:09 AM
Apparently Angela Merkel's own seat, which she had held since 1990, was won by the SPD this time
Title: Re: German Federal Election 2021 - Who will succeed Angela Merkel?
Post by: Syt on September 27, 2021, 04:40:59 AM
Post by: Syt on September 27, 2021, 04:40:59 AM
Quote from: The Larch on September 27, 2021, 04:33:09 AM
Apparently Angela Merkel's own seat, which she had held since 1990, was won by the SPD this time
Where "big name" politicians run sometimes feels to be a matter of convenience. Merkel always ran in Rügen (though to be fair she may have connections to it). Olaf Scholz is from Lower Saxony, but was long active for the Social Democrats in Hamburg where he was also First Mayor from 2011 before joining the federal government. He ran in Potsdam (same as Annalena Bärbock, also originally from Lower Saxony, but she's been running for the Brandenburg Greens since 2013; she and her husband were living in Berlin before moving to Potsdam in 2013).
Title: Re: German Federal Election 2021 - Who will succeed Angela Merkel?
Post by: Sheilbh on September 27, 2021, 04:48:02 AM
Post by: Sheilbh on September 27, 2021, 04:48:02 AM
Quote from: Valmy on September 26, 2021, 10:53:49 PMI think that's what scuppered a Jamaica coalition last time was whether the FDP and Greens could work together. It feels more likely they'd try to go for the SPD than CDU just because, if nothing else, it doesn't feel like Germany wants Laschet as Chancellor (though it is of course possible) and I wonder if the CSU fancy a period in opposition before the Bavarian elections next year.
Anyway I take it this means the FDP want to see if they can convince the Greens to partner with the CDU? I seem to recall they didn't want a SPD coalition.
Quote from: Richard Hakluyt on September 27, 2021, 02:07:02 AMI think it's wider and more challenging than that for the CDU/CSU.
Oh, and the CDU/CSU has done really badly; shows how highly Merkel must have been rated by many conservative voters.
They lost 1,360,000 votes to the SPD, 900,000 to the Greens and 340,000 to the FDP (but gained 100,000 from AfD and the Left). That doesn't look like a flight of conserative votes so much as almost just a loss of hegemony - I'm not sure what approach they take to recover. There is an argument that perhaps they need to be a little more defined (especially if they're not in a grand coalition again) so move more clearly to the right, but most of their votes went to the "left". But I'm not sure how you rebuild Merkel-style centrist hegemony without actually being in power.
Title: Re: German Federal Election 2021 - Who will succeed Angela Merkel?
Post by: The Larch on September 27, 2021, 05:24:41 AM
Post by: The Larch on September 27, 2021, 05:24:41 AM
Quote from: Syt on September 27, 2021, 04:40:59 AMQuote from: The Larch on September 27, 2021, 04:33:09 AM
Apparently Angela Merkel's own seat, which she had held since 1990, was won by the SPD this time
Where "big name" politicians run sometimes feels to be a matter of convenience. Merkel always ran in Rügen (though to be fair she may have connections to it). Olaf Scholz is from Lower Saxony, but was long active for the Social Democrats in Hamburg where he was also First Mayor from 2011 before joining the federal government. He ran in Potsdam (same as Annalena Bärbock, also originally from Lower Saxony, but she's been running for the Brandenburg Greens since 2013; she and her husband were living in Berlin before moving to Potsdam in 2013).
I think the point to be taken is more about how the CSU lost a seat they had held for wide margins for 30+ years
Title: Re: German Federal Election 2021 - Who will succeed Angela Merkel?
Post by: Syt on September 27, 2021, 05:26:19 AM
Post by: Syt on September 27, 2021, 05:26:19 AM
Yeah,but the SPD had a bit of a landslilde win in Mecklenburg-Vorpommern state elections yesterday which probably factored into it.
(https://www.tagesschau.de/wahl/archiv/2021-09-26-LT-DE-MV/charts/json-standardresult-wahlmonitor/chart_911797.jpg)
(https://www.tagesschau.de/wahl/archiv/2021-09-26-LT-DE-MV/charts/json-standardresult-wahlmonitor/chart_911785.jpg)
(https://www.tagesschau.de/wahl/archiv/2021-09-26-LT-DE-MV/charts/json-standardresult-wahlmonitor/chart_911797.jpg)
(https://www.tagesschau.de/wahl/archiv/2021-09-26-LT-DE-MV/charts/json-standardresult-wahlmonitor/chart_911785.jpg)
Title: Re: German Federal Election 2021 - Who will succeed Angela Merkel?
Post by: Zanza on September 27, 2021, 05:30:32 AM
Post by: Zanza on September 27, 2021, 05:30:32 AM
Will be interesting if either Greens or FDP leadership is willing to go into a coalition with their non-favored big party. And whether their grassroots members will actually be willing to support it.
Title: Re: German Federal Election 2021 - Who will succeed Angela Merkel?
Post by: Syt on September 27, 2021, 05:42:08 AM
Post by: Syt on September 27, 2021, 05:42:08 AM
https://www.reddit.com/r/germany/comments/pwe7c9/if_germany_used_the_us_electoral_college_2021/
(https://i.postimg.cc/8NHNhvDF/gec.jpg)
QuoteI already did this for the 2017 election. Have fun comparing them.
Please note that this is just for fun, voting behaviours would certainly change if another electoral system were in place.
To determine the electoral votes for each federal state, I used a the same system the US does: Each federal state gets two seats in the senate and some seats in the House of Representatives relative to their population. Each state has as many electoral votes as their seats in the senate and the House of Representatives combined. To find out how many seats in the House of Representatives (435 seats in total) each state gets, I used the Huntington–Hill method that is also used in the US for this purpose. I used each federal state's results from the recent federal elections of 2021 (you can find the raw data here) and looked at the "Zweitstimme", as that is the vote you cast for a specific party, rather than the "Erststimme", which is the vote you cast for a local representative. For the political affiliation of each party, I used the ones Wikipedia lists to stay as neutral as possible.
I hope you find this as interesting as I do ^^
(https://i.postimg.cc/8NHNhvDF/gec.jpg)
Title: Re: German Federal Election 2021 - Who will succeed Angela Merkel?
Post by: Syt on September 27, 2021, 11:47:16 AM
Post by: Syt on September 27, 2021, 11:47:16 AM
More maps :w00t:
Where parties are stronger/weaker, geographically.
(https://i.redd.it/hpfwe48241q71.jpg)
Interesting to see the former GDR really standing out with regards to Linke, AfD, Greens, and to lesser extent CDU.
Where parties are stronger/weaker, geographically.
(https://i.redd.it/hpfwe48241q71.jpg)
Interesting to see the former GDR really standing out with regards to Linke, AfD, Greens, and to lesser extent CDU.
Title: Re: German Federal Election 2021 - Who will succeed Angela Merkel?
Post by: Valmy on September 27, 2021, 12:27:03 PM
Post by: Valmy on September 27, 2021, 12:27:03 PM
It is interesting how distinct East Germany remains after 30+ years.
Title: Re: German Federal Election 2021 - Who will succeed Angela Merkel?
Post by: crazy canuck on September 27, 2021, 12:46:06 PM
Post by: crazy canuck on September 27, 2021, 12:46:06 PM
Quote from: Valmy on September 27, 2021, 12:27:03 PM
It is interesting how distinct East Germany remains after 30+ years.
Yeah, and Bavaria - after how long...
Title: Re: German Federal Election 2021 - Who will succeed Angela Merkel?
Post by: The Larch on September 27, 2021, 12:49:37 PM
Post by: The Larch on September 27, 2021, 12:49:37 PM
Quote from: Syt on September 27, 2021, 11:47:16 AM
More maps :w00t:
Where parties are stronger/weaker, geographically.
(https://i.redd.it/hpfwe48241q71.jpg)
Interesting to see the former GDR really standing out with regards to Linke, AfD, Greens, and to lesser extent CDU.
So, in the district where the Greens are the strongest nationally is also where the CDU and FDP are at their weakest? Makes sense, I guess. Super hipster part of Berlin?
Title: Re: German Federal Election 2021 - Who will succeed Angela Merkel?
Post by: Syt on September 27, 2021, 12:53:07 PM
Post by: Syt on September 27, 2021, 12:53:07 PM
I think so :D
Title: Re: German Federal Election 2021 - Who will succeed Angela Merkel?
Post by: Zanza on September 27, 2021, 12:59:08 PM
Post by: Zanza on September 27, 2021, 12:59:08 PM
Quote from: crazy canuck on September 27, 2021, 12:46:06 PMBavaria is a distinct political entity since 555 AD, when the older Bavarian duchy was founded by the Merovingians. :PQuote from: Valmy on September 27, 2021, 12:27:03 PM
It is interesting how distinct East Germany remains after 30+ years.
Yeah, and Bavaria - after how long...
Title: Re: German Federal Election 2021 - Who will succeed Angela Merkel?
Post by: Duque de Bragança on September 27, 2021, 01:02:57 PM
Post by: Duque de Bragança on September 27, 2021, 01:02:57 PM
Quote from: Zanza on September 27, 2021, 12:59:08 PMQuote from: crazy canuck on September 27, 2021, 12:46:06 PMBavaria is a distinct political entity since 555 AD, when the older Bavarian duchy was founded by the Merovingians. :PQuote from: Valmy on September 27, 2021, 12:27:03 PM
It is interesting how distinct East Germany remains after 30+ years.
Yeah, and Bavaria - after how long...
No reminder that "true" Bavaria was not part of Germania in Roman times? Not even part of Roman Germania. [spoiler]Roman though[/spoiler]
Disappointed. :thumbsdown:
Title: Re: German Federal Election 2021 - Who will succeed Angela Merkel?
Post by: Maladict on September 27, 2021, 02:02:46 PM
Post by: Maladict on September 27, 2021, 02:02:46 PM
Did the Greens not bother to run in Saarland?
Title: Re: German Federal Election 2021 - Who will succeed Angela Merkel?
Post by: Zanza on September 27, 2021, 02:09:19 PM
Post by: Zanza on September 27, 2021, 02:09:19 PM
Quote from: Maladict on September 27, 2021, 02:02:46 PMThey violated some rules when forming their party list for Saarland and were disqualified. An amateurish mistake really.
Did the Greens not bother to run in Saarland?
Title: Re: German Federal Election 2021 - Who will succeed Angela Merkel?
Post by: Syt on September 27, 2021, 02:10:46 PM
Post by: Syt on September 27, 2021, 02:10:46 PM
Quote from: Maladict on September 27, 2021, 02:02:46 PM
Did the Greens not bother to run in Saarland?
Their party list was rejected. Following internal conflicts, the federal arbitration committee of the Greens excluded the Saarlouis organization of the Greens from the vote for the party list. The federal election commission then rejected the party list because this exclusion violated democratic principles.
Title: Re: German Federal Election 2021 - Who will succeed Angela Merkel?
Post by: Maladict on September 27, 2021, 02:12:18 PM
Post by: Maladict on September 27, 2021, 02:12:18 PM
Interesting, thanks :)
Title: Re: German Federal Election 2021 - Who will succeed Angela Merkel?
Post by: Duque de Bragança on September 27, 2021, 02:34:22 PM
Post by: Duque de Bragança on September 27, 2021, 02:34:22 PM
Quote from: Zanza on September 27, 2021, 02:09:19 PMQuote from: Maladict on September 27, 2021, 02:02:46 PMThey violated some rules when forming their party list for Saarland and were disqualified. An amateurish mistake really.
Did the Greens not bother to run in Saarland?
Seems like the French Greens. :D
Title: Re: German Federal Election 2021 - Who will succeed Angela Merkel?
Post by: Barrister on September 27, 2021, 03:11:46 PM
Post by: Barrister on September 27, 2021, 03:11:46 PM
Quote from: Duque de Bragança on September 27, 2021, 02:34:22 PMQuote from: Zanza on September 27, 2021, 02:09:19 PMQuote from: Maladict on September 27, 2021, 02:02:46 PMThey violated some rules when forming their party list for Saarland and were disqualified. An amateurish mistake really.
Did the Greens not bother to run in Saarland?
Seems like the French Greens. :D
And our Canadian Greens!
Title: Re: German Federal Election 2021 - Who will succeed Angela Merkel?
Post by: crazy canuck on September 27, 2021, 03:36:15 PM
Post by: crazy canuck on September 27, 2021, 03:36:15 PM
Quote from: Duque de Bragança on September 27, 2021, 01:02:57 PMQuote from: Zanza on September 27, 2021, 12:59:08 PMQuote from: crazy canuck on September 27, 2021, 12:46:06 PMBavaria is a distinct political entity since 555 AD, when the older Bavarian duchy was founded by the Merovingians. :PQuote from: Valmy on September 27, 2021, 12:27:03 PM
It is interesting how distinct East Germany remains after 30+ years.
Yeah, and Bavaria - after how long...
No reminder that "true" Bavaria was not part of Germania in Roman times? Not even part of Roman Germania. [spoiler]Roman though[/spoiler]
Disappointed. :thumbsdown:
Well done, both of you :)
Title: Re: German Federal Election 2021 - Who will succeed Angela Merkel?
Post by: Zanza on September 27, 2021, 04:38:13 PM
Post by: Zanza on September 27, 2021, 04:38:13 PM
For the history nerds: "Identify the kingdoms of Bavaria, Saxony and Prussia as well as the most important Catholic bishoprics in their 1870 borders". ;) Actually even Baden and Württemberg are easily noticeable.
(https://i.redd.it/5pxm9bg312q71.jpg)
(https://i.redd.it/5pxm9bg312q71.jpg)
Title: Re: German Federal Election 2021 - Who will succeed Angela Merkel?
Post by: Syt on September 27, 2021, 11:51:36 PM
Post by: Syt on September 27, 2021, 11:51:36 PM
https://www.derstandard.at/story/2000129993801/landslide-victory-for-the-communists-in-graz-what-fueled-their
QuoteLandslide Victory for the Communists in Graz: What Fueled Their Success and What Comes Next?
The second largest city in Austria could soon have a communist mayor. But Elke Kahr's success on Sunday was preceded by years of hard work.
It was likely one of the strangest moments on this historical election evening in Graz. A clearly emotional Siegfried Nagl, until then the center-right mayor of the city, announced his resignation by saying: "I will withdraw my protective hand, but also my helping hand, from Graz." After his 18-year tenure as mayor of the southeastern Austrian city, what exactly did he mean by "protective hand." It sounded like a threat. "OK, I'm leaving you to the communists. That's apparently what you voters wanted. You'll see what it brings!"
The "Leningraz" Apocalypse
Shortly before the election, members of Nagl's party, the Austrian People's Party (ÖVP) of Austrian Chancellor Sebastian Kurz, had warned in drastic terms of what might happen if the communists were allowed to prevail in the election. A vote for the leftists, they said, was "a vote for chaos, terror and fear." They warned of mass unemployment. The term "Leningraz" even made the rounds.
And then, there was the ultimate victor of the elections, the head of the Communist Party of Austria (KPÖ) Elke Kahr, who had given the ÖVP apocalyptic nightmares, standing before the television cameras earlier in the day and answering questions about what she would do until the election results were announced. Her answer? She said she would use the time to finally do a bit of housework and wash a couple of loads of laundry. The beautiful weather, she insisted, was perfect for drying.
Kahr is well known for precisely those kinds of reactions. No grand words – a language that everyone speaks. She could be the friendly next-door neighbor who always offers help when needed. Precisely 28,8 percent of the voters in Graz, the capital of the state of Styria, were of the opinion on Sunday that Elke Kahr was not actually planning on launching the next communist revolution from the city, but would instead devote herself to helping the "common people," just as she has in previous years. That's what the residents of Graz have grown accustomed to from her.
Communist Support from the Upper-Middle Class
Kahr, say many, harbors nostalgia for Soviet-style communism, accusations that she calls "laughable." People have known her and her party well enough for decades, she says.And she has developed a following that now stretches through all segments of the population. In the detailed results of this municipal election, it becomes clear that the KPÖ under Elke Kahr has been able to win votes even in obviously upper-middle class neighborhoods of the city. Outgoing Mayor Siegfried Nagl gambled away a fair amount of support in such neighborhoods by giving real estate investors free rein – right in the midst of long-time ÖVP supporters.
Why, though, was the KPÖ able to find success in Graz when it hasn't even managed to get on the ballot in other Austrian states? Political scientist Manès Weisskircher told the STANDARD that it "wasn't specific milestones, but the long-term focus on the issue of housing that was decisive." It began with Elke Kahr's predecessor, Ernest Kaltenegger, who focused his attentions on this essential area of city management after all the other parties ignored it. He would visit residents of substandard apartments on a regular basis, listen to their concerns and arrange for assistance. He established an emergency hotline for renters.
A Self-Imposed Salary Cut
And then there is the political credibility that informs the KPÖ's election success, said Weisskircher. Whereas politicians at the federal level continually exceeded their campaign budgets, the communists in Graz didn't just call for cuts in the public funding provided to political parties. They also set aside two-thirds of the 5,500-euro salaries they earned. With a salary like that, Kahr once said, it is easy to lose sight of the concerns facing the population at large. The money was placed in a fund that has since then been used to help people who have been laid off or evicted. The KPÖ says that 1.7 million euros have poured into the fund since 1998.
Support for the KPÖ, derogatorily referred to as a charity by other parties, continuously grew. As the municipal official in charge of apartments, Kaltenegger pushed through a policy ensuring that every apartment be equipped with a shower and a toilet. Colleagues of his in government were astounded that such substandard apartments even still existed in the city. Kahr continued Kaltenegger's approach after he withdrew from politics. The result of the years 2004 to 2016: 960 new community housing units built and property for 550 apartments acquired. The social image of the party continued to grow.
A Misguided Plan
Officials in the Graz chapter of the ÖVP, under soon to be former mayor Nagl, and in the right-wing populist Freedom Party of Austria (FPÖ), with whom he has led a coalition government since 2016, were aware of Kahr's popularity. They knew that if they continued to leave housing policy up to her, it would be politically dangerous. They had to seize the core social issue from the KPÖ. As such, they essentially shunted her aside following the 2016 municipal elections and made her responsible for the transport portfolio, hoping it would take the wind out of her party's sails. Sunday's landslide victory for the KPÖ clearly demonstrates that the plan failed miserably. But what does the future hold in store for the KPÖ, which – for the first time – could soon control a city hall in Austria?
"The majority comprised of the Communists, the Green Party and Social Democrats could open up a new window of opportunity here," said Weisskircher, who added that it can be assumed that the communists will continue to focus on housing policy. In its election platform, the KPÖ also called for a minimum wage of 15 euros an hour, a reduction in working hours and the safeguarding and creation of jobs through public investment.
Weisskircher doesn't believe there will be any kind of rapid communist expansion into the other Austrian states, given the amount of long-term political legwork that would require. The political scientist does, however, believe that other left-wing groups, particularly the Social Democrats, should engage in some self-reflection in light of the KPÖ's election success in Graz. What the vote in Graz has ultimately demonstrated is that the "electoral successes of far-right parties are not a law of nature. If left-wing actors fail elsewhere, they also in part have themselves to blame."
Title: Re: German Federal Election 2021 - Who will succeed Angela Merkel?
Post by: Syt on September 28, 2021, 07:00:49 AM
Post by: Syt on September 28, 2021, 07:00:49 AM
Philip Amthor won the race for the direct ticket, but he made it into parliament via party list.
(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FAUIzM5XIAM5xQe?format=jpg&name=small)
(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FAUIzM5XIAM5xQe?format=jpg&name=small)
Title: Re: German Federal Election 2021 - Who will succeed Angela Merkel?
Post by: Zanza on October 07, 2021, 11:35:13 AM
Post by: Zanza on October 07, 2021, 11:35:13 AM
The party leader of the Conservatives, Armin Laschet (silly hat guy), now resigned his office.
A traffic light coalition with Scholz as chancellor, Lindner as finance minister and Baerbock as foreign minister is now the most likely outcome.
A traffic light coalition with Scholz as chancellor, Lindner as finance minister and Baerbock as foreign minister is now the most likely outcome.
Title: Re: German Federal Election 2021 - Who will succeed Angela Merkel?
Post by: Sheilbh on October 09, 2021, 01:47:51 PM
Post by: Sheilbh on October 09, 2021, 01:47:51 PM
Quote from: Syt on September 27, 2021, 11:47:16 AMFrom Adam Tooze's Twitter - KPD and left party votes in 1924 when "East Germany" still seemed out of the Christian Democratic mainstream of "West German" politics:
Interesting to see the former GDR really standing out with regards to Linke, AfD, Greens, and to lesser extent CDU.
(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FBQVy3EXsAAIEfu?format=jpg&name=small)
Really interesting how far back there seems to be a divide - I assume it's a legacy of the different states, particularly Prussia, that pre-date a unified Germany. But I'm not sure :hmm:
Title: Re: German Federal Election 2021 - Who will succeed Angela Merkel?
Post by: Zanza on October 15, 2021, 01:40:48 PM
Post by: Zanza on October 15, 2021, 01:40:48 PM
The Social Democrats, the Greens and the Liberals are now entering formal coalition talks with the declated intention to form the next government.
Their proposed policies are among others:
- State needs to be faster, i.e. shorter duration of bureaucratic processes and more digitalisation
- More investment in broadband internet
- More ways for citizens to participate in decisions, but keeping the representative democracy (i.e. no direct democracy)
- More renewable energy (all new houses must have photovoltaic, 2% of the country used for wind energy, more offshore wind energy, coal ending 2030, not 2038)
- Only carbon-neutral cars by 2035, more charging infrastructure, no general speed limit on the autobahn :P
- More organic agriculture
- More flexible working models, e.g. remote work, more variety in hours
- 12 Euro minimum wage, annual adjustment afterwards through a non-governmental commission of trade unions and employer federations
- Higher tax free limit for mini jobs
- Better support for founding companies, better social security for solo freelancers
- Changing the needs-based welfare to a "citizens income" which is basically a form of universal income for poor persons
- Move government and private pensions more towards being capital-based
- Try getting more care-givers from abroad to bolster the system
- More full day kindergartens and schools to allow parents to work
- State support for students no longer tied to parents income and state support for retraining in midlife
- Increase spending on research and support more spin-offs from research institutions
- Make start ups more attractive by giving tax breaks for employee stocks
- Build more apartments, both by easier planning approval and public loans
- Better legal standing for diverse forms of partnerships/families
- Easier way to legally migrate to Germany and gain citizenship
- Remove the word "race" from our constitution and add protection from discrimination due to sexual identity to the basic human rights
- lower federal voting age to 16
- no tax raises, keep debt limit, more investments (this will be by far the most critical point in the coalition talks)
- Support EU and single market, strong Franco-German collaboration
- Rule of law within EU, stronger military cooperation
- Support for NATO and security of Israel
- Multilateralism
- Combat illegal migration, but also don't let people drown in Mediterranean, more streamlined asylum policy
- Legalize cannabis
Their proposed policies are among others:
- State needs to be faster, i.e. shorter duration of bureaucratic processes and more digitalisation
- More investment in broadband internet
- More ways for citizens to participate in decisions, but keeping the representative democracy (i.e. no direct democracy)
- More renewable energy (all new houses must have photovoltaic, 2% of the country used for wind energy, more offshore wind energy, coal ending 2030, not 2038)
- Only carbon-neutral cars by 2035, more charging infrastructure, no general speed limit on the autobahn :P
- More organic agriculture
- More flexible working models, e.g. remote work, more variety in hours
- 12 Euro minimum wage, annual adjustment afterwards through a non-governmental commission of trade unions and employer federations
- Higher tax free limit for mini jobs
- Better support for founding companies, better social security for solo freelancers
- Changing the needs-based welfare to a "citizens income" which is basically a form of universal income for poor persons
- Move government and private pensions more towards being capital-based
- Try getting more care-givers from abroad to bolster the system
- More full day kindergartens and schools to allow parents to work
- State support for students no longer tied to parents income and state support for retraining in midlife
- Increase spending on research and support more spin-offs from research institutions
- Make start ups more attractive by giving tax breaks for employee stocks
- Build more apartments, both by easier planning approval and public loans
- Better legal standing for diverse forms of partnerships/families
- Easier way to legally migrate to Germany and gain citizenship
- Remove the word "race" from our constitution and add protection from discrimination due to sexual identity to the basic human rights
- lower federal voting age to 16
- no tax raises, keep debt limit, more investments (this will be by far the most critical point in the coalition talks)
- Support EU and single market, strong Franco-German collaboration
- Rule of law within EU, stronger military cooperation
- Support for NATO and security of Israel
- Multilateralism
- Combat illegal migration, but also don't let people drown in Mediterranean, more streamlined asylum policy
- Legalize cannabis
Title: Re: German Federal Election 2021 - Who will succeed Angela Merkel?
Post by: Jacob on October 15, 2021, 03:52:21 PM
Post by: Jacob on October 15, 2021, 03:52:21 PM
That all sounds pretty reasonable to me.
Title: Re: German Federal Election 2021 - Who will succeed Angela Merkel?
Post by: Syt on October 27, 2021, 01:25:17 AM
Post by: Syt on October 27, 2021, 01:25:17 AM
The German Bundestag has a separate section in the gallery for representatives who are neither vaccinated nor tested for Covid. Shockingly, it only seems to be AfD politicians.
(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FCnVuqkWYAMwb7m?format=jpg&name=medium)
(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FCnVuqkWYAMwb7m?format=jpg&name=medium)
Title: Re: German Federal Election 2021 - Who will succeed Angela Merkel?
Post by: Zanza on November 24, 2021, 06:14:23 AM
Post by: Zanza on November 24, 2021, 06:14:23 AM
QuoteGerman coalition deal sealed, to be presented later Wednesday
Germany's Social Democrats, Greens and Free Democrats have almost concluded coalition talks, the parties say. This means the country will likely have a new government well before Christmas.
The three parties planning to form a new coalition government in Germany will finalize a draft deal in the course of Wednesday, party sources have said, after some differences over financial and climate policies and ministerial posts were resolved at overnight talks.
Twenty-one representatives of the three parties — the center-left Social Democrats (SPD), the environmentalist Greens and the business-focused Free Democrats (FDP) — were to meet for concluding negotiations on Wednesday. The parties issued invitations to the press for a mid-afternoon conference where the party leaders would "present the coalition deal negotiated in the previous weeks," as the Greens put it in their invitation.
Any deal must be voted on by party conferences in the case of the SPD and the FDP and by party members in the case of the Greens.
The sources said the parties would like to see SPD candidate Olaf Scholz elected as chancellor by the Bundestag in the second week of December so that the new government can commence its work. That would also mean that outgoing Chancellor Angela Merkel would not surpass the record for days in office held by Helmut Kohl, falling far less than a month short.
Elections in Germany took place some eight weeks ago. The coalition talks began on October 21.
If the election of Scholz as chancellor goes ahead as planned, it will have taken 73 days to form a new government following the elections. This compares favorably with the 171 days needed after the 2017 elections to form a so-called grand coalition of Merkel's Christian Democrats (CDU) and the SPD.
Why is Germany getting a coalition government?
The parliamentary elections on September 26 saw the SPD, which was the junior coalition partner to the CDU in the previous government, make large gains to win the vote with nearly 26%.
The SPD showed itself litle inclined to enter a third coalition government in 16 years with the conservatives, who came in second at just over 24%, and quickly decided to try an alliance with the Greens and the FDP, although the latter two parties differed from one another on several issues, notably climate policy.
The Greens scored an unprecedented success at the elections, beating its previous scores by around 6% to gain third place on nearly 15%, while the FDP, a traditional kingmaker party in Germany, attained 11.5% of the vote to come in fourth.
The recent coalition talks would seem to have ironed out many of the differences between the two parties, with, among other things, the Greens abandoning its plans to introduce a speed limit on Germany's motorways, while the FDP has accepted an earlier phaseout of coal-fired energy.
'New dynamic' on climate policy
Sources from the Greens have said they are satisfied that the coalition deal fulfills the environmentalist party's demands that all policy areas — from transport and contstruction to agriculture — take the protection of the global climate into consideration.
They said a "new dynamic" was being set in motion to help Germany stick to the goal of keeping global warming to below 1.5 degrees Celsius (2.7 degrees Fahrenheit) above pre-industrial levels.
Negotiators from the Greens said Germany's climate policy under the planned coalition government would include measures to massively increase the use of renewable energy sources such as wind and solar energy. They said this would enable the country to abandon coal as an energy source by 2030, eight years earlier than planned under the last government.
Coalition is agreed now and a new government will be formed in the next days.
https://m.dw.com/en/german-coalition-deal-sealed-to-be-presented-later-wednesday/a-59915201
Title: Re: German Federal Election 2021 - Who will succeed Angela Merkel?
Post by: Zanza on November 24, 2021, 06:25:28 AM
Post by: Zanza on November 24, 2021, 06:25:28 AM
Ministers will be distributed by party:
SPD: Chancellor, Interior, Defence, Work, Healthcare, Development Aid, Construction&Housing (last one is new)
Greens: Economy & Climate, Foreign, Family, Agriculture, Environment
Liberals: Finance, Justice, Traffic, Science & Education
SPD: Chancellor, Interior, Defence, Work, Healthcare, Development Aid, Construction&Housing (last one is new)
Greens: Economy & Climate, Foreign, Family, Agriculture, Environment
Liberals: Finance, Justice, Traffic, Science & Education
Title: Re: German Federal Election 2021 - Who will succeed Angela Merkel?
Post by: mongers on November 24, 2021, 06:55:15 AM
Post by: mongers on November 24, 2021, 06:55:15 AM
Quote from: Zanza on November 24, 2021, 06:25:28 AM
Ministers will be distributed by party:
SPD: Chancellor, Interior, Defence, Work, Healthcare, Development Aid, Construction&Housing (last one is new)
Greens: Economy & Climate, Foreign, Family, Agriculture, Environment
Liberals: Finance, Justice, Traffic, Science & Education
Huge misstep by the Greens, they should have gone for Internal Security, Intelligence and Defence portfolios. :ph34r:
Title: Re: German Federal Election 2021 - Who will succeed Angela Merkel?
Post by: Sheilbh on November 24, 2021, 10:08:31 AM
Post by: Sheilbh on November 24, 2021, 10:08:31 AM
Interesting and positive bit on rule of law:
Although I still have an issue on the reconstruction fund - but I know I'm an outlier on that.
I am slightly worried about what an FDP Finance Minister means for Europe especially as we start moving to a more clearly post-pandemic phase.
Quote
Michael Meyer-Resende
@meyer_resende
(1) German coalition treaty "We call on the European Commission to use and enforce the existing rule of law instruments more consistently and promptly, including the rulings of the European Court of Justice (ECJ), via Articles 260 and 279 of the TFEU". (Is Germany now going on
(2)..acelerator, after years on the brake?) "We in the Council will more consistently enforce/develop application of ROL instruments". "We will agree to the COM's proposals on the reconstruction fund if conditions like independent judiciary are met."
Although I still have an issue on the reconstruction fund - but I know I'm an outlier on that.
I am slightly worried about what an FDP Finance Minister means for Europe especially as we start moving to a more clearly post-pandemic phase.
Title: Re: German Federal Election 2021 - Who will succeed Angela Merkel?
Post by: Habbaku on November 24, 2021, 12:37:01 PM
Post by: Habbaku on November 24, 2021, 12:37:01 PM
Quote from: Zanza on November 24, 2021, 06:25:28 AM
Liberals: Finance, Justice, Traffic, Science & Education
:yeah:
Title: Re: German Federal Election 2021 - Who will succeed Angela Merkel?
Post by: Zanza on December 08, 2021, 07:22:27 AM
Post by: Zanza on December 08, 2021, 07:22:27 AM
So Germany has a new chancellor, Olaf Scholz,and the Merkel era is over.
Title: Re: German Federal Election 2021 - Who will succeed Angela Merkel?
Post by: Syt on December 08, 2021, 11:07:55 AM
Post by: Syt on December 08, 2021, 11:07:55 AM
Ministers were all sworn in. Everyone arrived in limos, except new agricultural minister, Cem Özdemir (Greens).
(https://preview.redd.it/dr7t7mbntb481.png?width=640&crop=smart&auto=webp&s=e48949e1235c893c2ebe7df0fd1f9527f2777c41)
(https://preview.redd.it/dr7t7mbntb481.png?width=640&crop=smart&auto=webp&s=e48949e1235c893c2ebe7df0fd1f9527f2777c41)
Title: Re: German Federal Election 2021 - Who will succeed Angela Merkel?
Post by: Syt on December 08, 2021, 02:19:57 PM
Post by: Syt on December 08, 2021, 02:19:57 PM
Macron's farewell message to Merkel (wit video!)
https://twitter.com/EmmanuelMacron/status/1468501855567507459
https://twitter.com/EmmanuelMacron/status/1468501855567507459
Quote
Emmanuel Macron
@EmmanuelMacron
Officiel du gouvernement - France
Merci, chère Angela, de n'avoir jamais oublié les leçons de l'Histoire, d'avoir tant fait pour nous, avec nous, pour faire avancer l'Europe. Danke, dass du die Lehren der Geschichte nie vergessen und so viel für und mit uns getan hast, um Europa voranzubringen.
Cher @OlafScholz, la suite, nous l'écrirons ensemble. Pour les Français, pour les Allemands, pour les Européens. À vendredi ! Das nächste Kapitel werden wir zusammen schreiben. Für die Franzosen, für die Deutschen, für die Europäer. Wir sehen uns am Freitag!
Title: Re: German Federal Election 2021 - Who will succeed Angela Merkel?
Post by: Sheilbh on December 09, 2021, 09:08:51 PM
Post by: Sheilbh on December 09, 2021, 09:08:51 PM
My favourite take from a emiritus professor of economics at Amherst:
QuoteRichard D. Wolff:lol:
@profwolff
Self-censoring BBC hides new German gov 't led by SOCIALIST PARTY (in his SPD party, S is for socialist). BBC calls him "social democrat." Portugal's coalition gov't since 2016 too is mostly hidden: socialists + communists + Greens.
Title: Re: German Federal Election 2021 - Who will succeed Angela Merkel?
Post by: Habbaku on December 09, 2021, 09:14:32 PM
Post by: Habbaku on December 09, 2021, 09:14:32 PM
Dick Wolff is self-parody at this point. The man knows plenty, but seems to just be dispensing the dumbest takes on a lot of issues lately.
Title: Re: German Federal Election 2021 - Who will succeed Angela Merkel?
Post by: Syt on December 10, 2021, 12:37:38 AM
Post by: Syt on December 10, 2021, 12:37:38 AM
Well, in a country where a party like the Democrats, who would be right of center in much of Europe, are considered left-wing radicals by a significant part of the electorate, slightly left of center parties like the SPD must look like hardcore Socialists.
Title: Re: German Federal Election 2021 - Who will succeed Angela Merkel?
Post by: Valmy on December 10, 2021, 12:51:14 AM
Post by: Valmy on December 10, 2021, 12:51:14 AM
Quote from: Syt on December 10, 2021, 12:37:38 AM
Well, in a country where a party like the Democrats, who would be right of center in much of Europe, are considered left-wing radicals by a significant part of the electorate, slightly left of center parties like the SPD must look like hardcore Socialists.
It is all culture war stuff. When you have Republicans voting massive deficits and cutting checks to every single American, I am not seeing a big traditional conservative slant in any way except on cultural issues.
So when they say the Democrats are radical left they are talking about transgender and anti-racism and all that mostly. Though i guess now we have climate change and vaccines that the populist right is also labelling left wing these days.
Title: Re: German Federal Election 2021 - Who will succeed Angela Merkel?
Post by: The Larch on December 10, 2021, 07:10:21 AM
Post by: The Larch on December 10, 2021, 07:10:21 AM
Quote from: Habbaku on December 09, 2021, 09:14:32 PM
Dick Wolff is self-parody at this point. The man knows plenty, but seems to just be dispensing the dumbest takes on a lot of issues lately.
It is however very much in line with many American right wing actors that foam in the mouth at the mere thought of anything remotely leftist and start screaming "Commies!" at the drop of a hat. I mean, this very same week Forbes was sounding the alarm on the Chilean presidential election about the risk of the country electing Boric (head of the left-wing coalition) because he is, according to them, a commie (he is not), and how the right wing candidate (the son of an actual nazi and basically the Chilean Bolsonaro) was so much more preferable.
Title: Re: German Federal Election 2021 - Who will succeed Angela Merkel?
Post by: Sheilbh on December 10, 2021, 07:13:35 AM
Post by: Sheilbh on December 10, 2021, 07:13:35 AM
He's on the left. He's annoyed the BBC are covering up left wing governments.
Title: Re: German Federal Election 2021 - Who will succeed Angela Merkel?
Post by: The Larch on December 10, 2021, 07:21:37 AM
Post by: The Larch on December 10, 2021, 07:21:37 AM
Quote from: Sheilbh on December 10, 2021, 07:13:35 AM
He's on the left. He's annoyed the BBC are covering up left wing governments.
Who do you mean?
Title: Re: German Federal Election 2021 - Who will succeed Angela Merkel?
Post by: Sheilbh on December 10, 2021, 07:33:22 AM
Post by: Sheilbh on December 10, 2021, 07:33:22 AM
Quote from: The Larch on December 10, 2021, 07:21:37 AMThe guy posting that the BBC is self-censoring by calling Scholz of the Sozialdemokratische party a Social Democrat instead of a Socialist :lol:Quote from: Sheilbh on December 10, 2021, 07:13:35 AM
He's on the left. He's annoyed the BBC are covering up left wing governments.
Who do you mean?
He's a Marxist economist and obviously the reason the BBC calls Scholz a social democrat is because that's the name of his party which is normally how the BBC report things, rather than making an ideological assessment.
Title: Re: German Federal Election 2021 - Who will succeed Angela Merkel?
Post by: Josquius on December 10, 2021, 09:41:36 AM
Post by: Josquius on December 10, 2021, 09:41:36 AM
Calling a social democrat a social democrat is sensible. Far more specific than just socialist.
But there is a valid point that the UK is going rather backwards and american in terms of how we interpret the word socialist.
This isn't the time or place but the BBC and the rest of the right of centre media is complicit in this.
But there is a valid point that the UK is going rather backwards and american in terms of how we interpret the word socialist.
This isn't the time or place but the BBC and the rest of the right of centre media is complicit in this.
Title: Re: German Federal Election 2021 - Who will succeed Angela Merkel?
Post by: Duque de Bragança on December 10, 2021, 09:47:44 AM
Post by: Duque de Bragança on December 10, 2021, 09:47:44 AM
Quote from: Sheilbh on December 09, 2021, 09:08:51 PM
My favourite take from a emiritus professor of economics at Amherst:QuoteRichard D. Wolff:lol:
@profwolff
Self-censoring BBC hides new German gov 't led by SOCIALIST PARTY (in his SPD party, S is for socialist). BBC calls him "social democrat." Portugal's coalition gov't since 2016 too is mostly hidden: socialists + communists + Greens.
Maybe he did not hear about the SPD abandoning marxism in Bad Godesberg in 1959. :P
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Godesberg_Program (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Godesberg_Program)
That's actually worse than that for Portugal. It's socialists, non-destalinised communists and (far-)leftists.
Coalition has collapsed however. :P Where's clandestino btw? Sporting qualified for the next CL round and he disappeared.
Title: Re: German Federal Election 2021 - Who will succeed Angela Merkel?
Post by: Habbaku on December 10, 2021, 10:02:42 AM
Post by: Habbaku on December 10, 2021, 10:02:42 AM
Quote from: Sheilbh on December 10, 2021, 07:33:22 AMQuote from: The Larch on December 10, 2021, 07:21:37 AMThe guy posting that the BBC is self-censoring by calling Scholz of the Sozialdemokratische party a Social Democrat instead of a Socialist :lol:Quote from: Sheilbh on December 10, 2021, 07:13:35 AM
He's on the left. He's annoyed the BBC are covering up left wing governments.
Who do you mean?
He's a Marxist economist and obviously the reason the BBC calls Scholz a social democrat is because that's the name of his party which is normally how the BBC report things, rather than making an ideological assessment.
:yes:
Title: Re: German Federal Election 2021 - Who will succeed Angela Merkel?
Post by: Zanza on December 10, 2021, 03:20:23 PM
Post by: Zanza on December 10, 2021, 03:20:23 PM
A government with Scholz as chancellor and Lindner as finance minister will follow the general economic policy of the postwar German social market economy. Expect nothing big changing here.