2024 US Presidential Elections Megathread

[crazy canuck]

Voting decisions now universally seem to be about choosing the least worst option.

[frunk]

This could be an attempt to appeal to conservative voters living in the past.

[Tamas]

Sure anyone can meet with living European leaders but Biden sets the bar much higher than that:

In his second mix-up this week, Biden talks about meeting with dead European leaders

This time Helmut Kohl when presumably he meant Angela Merkel, (on the other hand it could just have been one heck of a G7 summit that he attended.)

Following the strategy proposed by garbon we should highlight he may have been this stupid even before he turned 80.

[FunkMonk]

How are people preparing themselves for Trump's second term? At this point I am taking it as a given and if he loses it will be a pleasant surprise.

[Tamas]

How are people preparing themselves for Trump's second term? At this point I am taking it as a given and if he loses it will be a pleasant surprise.

I cannot see him winning. Why somebody who didn't vote for him 4 years ago do so today? He is even more unhinged and there was the whole riot/coup attempt thing.

I guess the only possible way is if non-Trump voters stay home in droves.

[Josquius]

How are people preparing themselves for Trump's second term? At this point I am taking it as a given and if he loses it will be a pleasant surprise.

I cannot see him winning. Why somebody who didn't vote for him 4 years ago do so today? He is even more unhinged and there was the whole riot/coup attempt thing.

I guess the only possible way is if non-Trump voters stay home in droves.

Which without Trump sitting in the oval office and the very real atmosphere of fear of what happens if he stays there I can see happening.
Especially considering the narrative that against all data the economy is doing bad under Biden.

[Caliga]

I cannot see him winning. Why somebody who didn't vote for him 4 years ago do so today? He is even more unhinged and there was the whole riot/coup attempt thing.

I guess the only possible way is if non-Trump voters stay home in droves.

Agree, that's why I am happy Haley is doing badly.  If she managed to win the nomination, I would worry she could be elected.  Prior data suggests Trump cannot be.

[crazy canuck]

But what are the risks that too many anti-Trump voters stay home because Biden is not that much better in their view?

[Caliga]

But what are the risks that too many anti-Trump voters stay home because Biden is not that much better in their view?

Good question, but I think the risk is low because there will be redoubled efforts to get the Democratic base fired up as we approach the general.

[crazy canuck]

But what are the risks that too many anti-Trump voters stay home because Biden is not that much better in their view?

Good question, but I think the risk is low because there will be redoubled efforts to get the Democratic base fired up as we approach the general.

Fair point.  The urgency may be greater than if Biden was considered a strong candidate.

[PJL]

I can't see how Trump can not win the election at this point. Unless the polls improve by the summer, Biden is toast and the extremists will ensure that Trump wins.

[Barrister]

How are people preparing themselves for Trump's second term? At this point I am taking it as a given and if he loses it will be a pleasant surprise.

I cannot see him winning. Why somebody who didn't vote for him 4 years ago do so today? He is even more unhinged and there was the whole riot/coup attempt thing.

I guess the only possible way is if non-Trump voters stay home in droves.

Except for the fact that Trump is leading in the polls.

https://www.realclearpolling.com/polls/president/general/2024/trump-vs-biden

Now yes - National polls don't mean that much - the election will be decided in a handful of battleground states.  But it means something - in both prior elections Trump lost the national vote.

As to why this is - I wish I could say.  But it's a thing.

[Valmy]

Yeah man. Lots of reasons to be concerned. I think as we get more into the campaign things will sort themselves out but lots of reasons to anxiety.

Which, to be fair, is pretty much every national election since 2016.

[Valmy]

I can't see how Trump can not win the election at this point. Unless the polls improve by the summer, Biden is toast and the extremists will ensure that Trump wins.

Yeah. I am just hoping more Trump spouting BS and Biden being given a chance to push forward his policy successes might do the trick.

But we will see.

[OttoVonBismarck]

I can't see how Trump can not win the election at this point. Unless the polls improve by the summer, Biden is toast and the extremists will ensure that Trump wins.

I've posted the same thing a few times but basically: either candidate could plausibly win, and polls this far out just aren't associated, in any prior elections, with reliability.

Some of the key factors to consider:

• Trump's polling, aside from brief exceptions, has been in the mid-40s range since like 2016. This suggests there may be about that % of the electorate who is ever willing to vote for Trump.
• The above means that, to lose to Trump, a Democrat would need to pull 48% or less. This is based on "roughly" translating national vote share to expected state-by-state results, because they do correlate somewhat, just not perfectly.
• Pulling 48% or less is actually associated with every Democratic electoral college defeat since Gore, that is about what Gore, Kerry and HRC got.
• Could this happen in 2024? Sure. I don't know if it will, no one does. But the math means, given Trump's likely ceiling, that around 6% of the electorate has to vote for someone outside of the two major parties--this is a higher bar than Republicans faced when they won in 2000 and 2004, because Bush wasn't capped at the ~45-46% Trump seems to be capped at, Bush got 48% in 2000 and 50% in 2004.
• Since the 2020 elections (this means in the 2022 midterms, and the majority of off-cycle elections), Democrats have consistently outperformed their polling, this is similar to how Republicans outperformed their polling in 2016 and 2020; why Dems have been outperforming polling, and whether it will apply to Biden, remain open questions.