Climate Change/Mass Extinction Megathread

[Josquius]

https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2023/jul/26/we-cant-afford-to-be-climate-doomers?CMP=Share_AndroidApp_Other

It often seems that people are searching harder for evidence we're defeated than that we can win

Stanford engineering professor and renewable energy expert Mark Z Jacobson tweeted the other day, "Given that scientists who study 100% renewable energy systems are unanimous that it can be done why do we hear daily on twitter and everywhere else by those who don't study such systems that it can't be done?" A significant percentage of the general public speaks of climate change with a strange combination of confidence and defeatism: confidence in positions often based on inaccurate or outdated or maybe no information; defeatism about what we can do to make a livable future. Maybe they just get their facts from other doom evangelists, who flourish on the internet, no matter how much reputable scientists demonstrate their errors.

They're surrendering in advance and inspiring others to do the same. If you announce that the outcome has already been decided and we've already lost, you strip away the motivation to participate – and of course if we do nothing we settle for the worst outcome. It often seems that people are searching harder for evidence we're defeated than that we can win. Warnings are a valuable thing, given with the sense that there's something we can do to prevent the anticipated outcome; prophesies assume the future is settled and there's nothing we can do. But the defeatists often describe a present they assert are locking in the worst outcomes.

One day this week, someone told me that she was "angry at people's refusal to acknowledge what's happening to the planet" and when I waved a couple of surveys at them showing that in 2023 "Nearly seven-in-ten Americans (69%) favor the U.S. taking steps to become carbon neutral by 2050" and in 2021 "three-quarters (75%) of adults in Great Britain said they were worried about the impact of climate change" they shifted to complaining about poor leadership and climate deniers. So far as I could tell, she wanted to be angry at obstacles, and if one was removed, she had others.

certainty and while it's obviously foolish to be certain we will win, somehow certainty we will lose isn't subject to the same judgments. That certainty seems to come in part from an assumption that change happens in predictable ways, so we can know the future, or that there are environmental but not social and technological tipping points. But, as the thinktank Carbon Tracker notes "The S-curve is a well-established phenomenon where a successful new technology reaches a certain catalytic tipping point (typically 5-10% market share), and then rapidly reaches a high market share (i.e. 50%+) within just a couple more years once past this tipping point. Solar panels, wind turbines and lithium-ion batteries have all followed such learning curves. Each technology has declined in cost by over 90% in the past two decades. And so their growth has followed an S-curve model." Change is often not linear but exponential, or it's unpredictable, like an earthquake releasing centuries of tension. Big changes start small, and history is studded with surprises.

I don't know why so many people seem to think it's their job to spread discouragement, but it seems to be a muddle about the relationship between facts and feelings. I keep saying I respect despair as an emotion, but not as an analysis. You can feel absolutely devastated about the situation and not assume this predicts outcome; you can have your feelings and can still chase down facts from reliable sources, and the facts tell us that the general public is not the problem; the fossil fuel industry and other vested interests are; that we have the solutions, that we know what to do, and that the obstacles are political; that when we fight we sometimes win; and that we are deciding the future now.

I wonder sometimes if it's because people assume you can't be hopeful and heartbroken at the same time, and of course you can. In times when everything is fine hope is unnecessary. Hope is not happiness or confidence or inner peace; it's a commitment to search for possibilities. Feelings deserve full respect as feelings, but all they inform you about is you. History is full of people who continued to struggle in desperate and grim circumstances, and so is the news from Ukraine to the Philippines. Some lived to see those circumstances change because of that struggle. Maybe this is what Antonio Gramsci meant with his famous phrase "pessimism of the intellect, optimism of the will". Some days I think that if we lose the climate battle, it'll be due in no small part to this defeatism among the comfortable in the global north, while people in frontline communities continue to fight like hell for survival. Which is why fighting defeatism is also climate work.

I've increasingly noticed doomerism and it is a big issue.
Whilst outright denial of climate change is quickly becoming a thing of the past doomerism is definitely taking over.
From the UK is only 1% of the world so no point doing anything (particularly popular with racists) , to telling individuals to act is just corporate propeganda as they're responsible (hence we should do nothing), through to everything is fucked so just enjoy the ride.
It's interesting how this comes from both very informed people who just have a negative outlook and ignorant people who grasp for something that gives them an excuse to do nothing.
I do think there's a good lesson here to be careful with the informed doomerism and to try to be optimistic and constantly look for solutions.

[Duque de Bragança]

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2023/07/25/lord-frost-rising-temperatures-likely-beneficial-britain/



Incidentally, "Lord Frost" sounds like the name of a Saturday morning cartoon villain.

A Saturday morning cartoon villain who can only be defeated by (excessive) heat/warming. 

[Sheilbh]

I've increasingly noticed doomerism and it is a big issue.
Whilst outright denial of climate change is quickly becoming a thing of the past doomerism is definitely taking over.
From the UK is only 1% of the world so no point doing anything (particularly popular with racists) , to telling individuals to act is just corporate propeganda as they're responsible (hence we should do nothing), through to everything is fucked so just enjoy the ride.
It's interesting how this comes from both very informed people who just have a negative outlook and ignorant people who grasp for something that gives them an excuse to do nothing.
I do think there's a good lesson here to be careful with the informed doomerism and to try to be optimistic and constantly look for solutions.

I totally agree with that piece and I think it is a problem, not least because I think it's disempowering.

But the group I think of with doomerism is Just Stop Oil and I remember a similar piece of scientists in the BBC getting very annoyed about doomerism and rejecting it as false. It is not true, but that's not a challenge you often here to those types of activists.

It's partly why I take fears of post-truth or lies in public life with a pinch of salt because from what I can see most people are fine with them if they agree with the message/end result/if our side do it. There's JSO statements on climate (which are explicitly rejected by scientists working in the area) but that still get shared because even if they're not actually true, they are raising awareness which is good.

Or the Guardian article on the collapse of the Gulf Stream which I think it's been over 24 hours and they've made some changes, but it's still up on the site - despite having numerous scientists online saying it's wildly irresponsible and misleading.

[Valmy]

I do think there is a very Christian cultural tendency to see everything as the apocalypse and payment for our sins or something.

At the end of the day the sun will come up in the East and we will deal with whatever circumstances we have. Humans are very good at surviving. This problem will be solved someday. Eventually humans will be really good at managing the climate. It may suck for awhile but we don't really know the extent it will suck. No reason to panic about this than any of the other endless things that make human life stressful and challenging, especially if panicking means you descend into apathy and complacency.

If, on the other hand, panic leads you to action then panic away.

People who want to have children not doing so because they are panicking about the climate crisis makes me sad. If you care about the state of the world well you are the kind of person I want to be raising the next generation to deal with this issue.

[Tonitrus]

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2023/07/25/lord-frost-rising-temperatures-likely-beneficial-britain/



Incidentally, "Lord Frost" sounds like the name of a Saturday morning cartoon villain.

A Saturday morning cartoon villain who can only be defeated by (excessive) heat/warming. 

[crazy canuck]

You stole my post

[mongers]

This July looks set to be the hottest month ever recorded across the world.

[Valmy]

This July looks set to be the hottest month ever recorded across the world.

I have a feeling that record will not stand long.

[The Brain]

Stanford engineering professor and renewable energy expert Mark Z Jacobson tweeted the other day, "Given that scientists who study 100% renewable energy systems are unanimous that it can be done why do we hear daily on twitter and everywhere else by those who don't study such systems that it can't be done?" A significant percentage of the general public speaks of climate change with a strange combination of confidence and defeatism: confidence in positions often based on inaccurate or outdated or maybe no information; defeatism about what we can do to make a livable future. Maybe they just get their facts from other doom evangelists, who flourish on the internet, no matter how much reputable scientists demonstrate their errors.

Putting 100% renewables as the cure for climate change is just gaslighting. In the 80s and 90s Sweden used essentially 50% hydro and 50% nuclear, and got stable and cheap power. Obviously the safety and environmental problems of the system were dominated by hydro, but still reasonable and very good from a climate perspective. Electrical power is of course just one part of the energy sector, but a growing one with plans for electric car fleets, more use of electric industrial processes etc etc.

[Hamilcar]

It's not just power generation, but also construction (concrete!) and animal agriculture.

Why aren't you all vegan yet?

[HVC]

Your soy isn't that environmentally friendly either. A major cause of deforestation, uses a ton of water and is bad for soil too

https://www.worldwildlife.org/industries/soy#:~:text=Soil%20erosion%2C%20degradation%2C%20and%20compaction&text=Because%20soy%20cultivation%20is%20highly,on%20many%20large%20soybean%20farms.

[Hamilcar]

Your soy isn't that environmentally friendly either. A major cause of deforestation, uses a ton of water and is bad for soil too

https://www.worldwildlife.org/industries/soy#:~:text=Soil%20erosion%2C%20degradation%2C%20and%20compaction&text=Because%20soy%20cultivation%20is%20highly,on%20many%20large%20soybean%20farms.

"My boss has three SUVs, so I'm justified in keeping mine."

[HVC]

Just saying if you're  vegan to be smug it's misguided. You probably swear by almond milk too

[Hamilcar]

Just saying if you're  vegan to be smug it's misguided. You probably swear by almond milk too

I don't like any kind of milk, whether it comes from a cow udder or a plant.

And yes, being vegan is one of the most effective ways you can be sustainable as an individual.

[garbon]

Just saying if you're  vegan to be smug it's misguided. You probably swear by almond milk too

I don't like any kind of milk, whether it comes from a cow udder or a plant.

And yes, being vegan is one of the most effective ways you can be sustainable as an individual.

I don't believe I'd be able to sustain my person though.