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#21

Off the Record / Re: 2024 US Presidential Elect...

Last post by The Minsky Moment - Today at 01:35:44 PM

Ultimately it all comes down to the USSC.  It does have a 6-3 conservative majority.  It has so far NOT been Trump's lackey, ruling against him on several issues, but I understand the concern.

It has definitely slanted towards Trump. The scheduling of the immunity case and the handling of the questions presented, are hard to explain absent a motive to deliberately delay the criminal case. It's true that as to substance, the Court will not rule whatever Trump says because they are aware of the implications that such a precedent will set for other Presidents. But there are many things they can do and have done to help Trump short of that.

People still bring up 2000 Bush v Gore, where it was a literal razor's edge election, and by all accounts the USSC got it right.

Right in what sense?  The opinion didn't make a lot of sense in terms of reasoning or precedent, and even the majority was sufficiently embarrassed to take the extraordinary step of declaring it to be non-precedential.  The Court got it "right" in that the after of fact recounts didn't support Gore and it's true there wasn't any plausible scenario where Gore would have won the election regardless of how the Court ruled.  But it was far from a shining moment of glory for the Court.

#22

Off the Record / Re: 2024 US Presidential Elect...

Last post by PJL - Today at 01:27:35 PM

My one hope in the polling is that they may even be overestimating Trump's support. Granted this is only based on polling having overestimated Republican support in the 2022 mid-terms, but it could become a factor.

#23

Off the Record / Re: 2024 US Presidential Elect...

Last post by Grey Fox - Today at 01:24:29 PM

And I'm worried he won't lose.  He's polling much better then he did in either 2016 or 2020.

I'm worried too but one of the factors of the better Trump polling this time is that Polling firms have adapted their, well, polling to better capture prospective Trump voters. I read an article that mentioned that they now will ask the who you voting for question as the 1st question. Registering that answer even if the person hangs up right after.

#24

Off the Record / Re: Russo-Ukrainian War 2014-2...

Last post by The Minsky Moment - Today at 01:22:34 PM

This is going to end up as a Russian victory, won't it?

I mean it depends on what you mean by "victory" - I don't think Russian troops are marching through Kiyev, but I don't think Ukraine is going back to pre-2014 borders (which of course is my preferred outcome).

Russia lost the war two years ago, nothing is likely to change that unless a Trump-led United States shifts from malign neglect to outright support for Putin. Otherwise, the best Russian case is that they may occupy more pieces of a devastated eastern Ukraine, which will further drain already taxed resources. But their strategic position will remain considerably worse then pre-2022.

Of course it is possible for both sides to lose a war and that is looking increasingly likely as an outcome. Ukraine will have cemented its nationhood but at terrible cost.

#25

Off the Record / Re: Russo-Ukrainian War 2014-2...

Last post by Grey Fox - Today at 01:19:32 PM

South Korea has to be worried, Russian money is going to revitalize North Korea's arms industry.

#26

Off the Record / Re: NHL Hockey thread

Last post by Grey Fox - Today at 01:16:41 PM

They did not? Both Vancouver players were disciplined.

#27

Off the Record / Re: 2024 US Presidential Elect...

Last post by Barrister - Today at 01:11:03 PM

So in 2020 things focused on Mike Pence, as his constitutional duty was to "count" the electoral votes.  But it was a Democratic-controlled senate.

What if in 2024 it's a GOP controlled senate?  What if they refuse to ratify the election?

What if secretaries of state in key states refuse to ratify the election results?

Yeah, there's a lot of ways things can get ugly in the US with this election

Ultimately it all comes down to the USSC.  It does have a 6-3 conservative majority.  It has so far NOT been Trump's lackey, ruling against him on several issues, but I understand the concern.

And really - the thought the election might have to come down to the USSC is scary.  People still bring up 2000 Bush v Gore, where it was a literal razor's edge election, and by all accounts the USSC got it right.

#28

Off the Record / Re: [Canada] Canadian Politics...

Last post by Jacob - Today at 12:56:29 PM

I trust (and hope) that our parliamentary democracy is going to serve as a bit of a bulwark against the wave of anti-democratic reactionary populism that is currently on the rise in the West.

#29

Off the Record / Re: NHL Hockey thread

Last post by crazy canuck - Today at 12:54:46 PM

It's a violent contact sport, it's not handball.

I like fine play and I don't mind rough play.  I don't like dirty hits and ref's blindness.

Just saw the replay of the double cross check on the Oilers'
Star player.  Yeah, amazed a professional league lets this happen. 

#30

Off the Record / Re: 2024 US Presidential Elect...

Last post by Jacob - Today at 12:54:27 PM

So in 2020 things focused on Mike Pence, as his constitutional duty was to "count" the electoral votes.  But it was a Democratic-controlled senate.

What if in 2024 it's a GOP controlled senate?  What if they refuse to ratify the election?

What if secretaries of state in key states refuse to ratify the election results?

Yeah, there's a lot of ways things can get ugly in the US with this election