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#41

Off the Record / Re: Brexit and the waning days...

Last post by Sheilbh - May 10, 2024, 12:41:56 PM

OK, but my point wasn't "you need a base".  I mean you do if you want Reform to grow as a viable political party.

But if you want Jos's dream scenario of a total Conservative destruction you need Reform to do reasonably well across the country in order to draw votes from the Conservatives and allow Labour (or LibDems) to win a plurality even in what were once Conservative safe seats.

Totally agree but I'm not sure you even need that at the minute.

I think there are signs that's already happening. So Labour is winning back the Red Wall,  but it also looks on course to win back what were swing seats pre-2015 (especially in the Midlands - Nuneaton, for example), but also working class Southern seats that only really went Labour under Blair (Basildon, Braintree, Dover).

At the same time the Lib Dems came third in votes in the recent local elections - but second in councillors won. That suggests to me that there's an anti-Tory vote (as in 1997-2005) that is voting tactically. But also simply that the Lib Dems know what they're doing again. Which will target the Blue Wall seats.

And the challenge for the Tories is going to be that resources are limited, activists are limited - where do you try and defend because at the minute it looks like they're at risk of losing the new areas they won post-Brexit, the areas they won under Miliband and the Southern working class votes that have been a key part of the party since Thatcher. At the same time they're under pressure in the stockbroker belt from the Lib Dems.

Reform would definitely make that worse although I'm not sure where or with which voters.

But same difference.  There are many people "of the right".  If the UK Conservative Party is utterly destroyed, those people won't just go away.  Most likely they take over the LibDems, or else they build up a new party.

100%. I'm still baffled by why hardcore remainers/rejoiners haven't taken over the Lib Dems tbh.

#42

Off the Record / Re: Israel-Hamas War 2023

Last post by Razgovory - May 10, 2024, 12:39:55 PM

You have several threads on Left Wing antisemitism.  For instance among Black Americans "Jews control everything" and "Jews ran the slave trade" have a lot of currency. There is also belief that Israelis train police to kill Black people.  Among the Left-wing protestors at these Universities middle eastern conspiracy  theories gain a lot of traction such as the idea that Israelis are stealing the organs of Palestinian children.  The idea that Zionists control the media makes a big impact in the left (Why isn't there more attention on Palestinian suffering?  It's the Zionists in the media.)  And of course the talk about the "Zionist lobby" having way to much influence on government.

#43

Off the Record / Re: The Off Topic Topic

Last post by Valmy - May 10, 2024, 12:36:32 PM

Yeah but if you just live the normal American lifestyle you will almost inevitably become overweight. You have to make a considerable effort to not be overweight unless you are just blessed by genetics.

I thought Colorado was the least fat so sort of surprised to see that DC, of all places, is. Must be all those standing desks in the federal bureaucracy.



But look at all those fatties in Saskatchewan!

#44

Off the Record / Re: Israel-Hamas War 2023

Last post by Barrister - May 10, 2024, 12:35:44 PM

Huh.  Campus protests have come to Alberta.

https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/calgary/university-calgary-palestinian-protest-police-removal-1.7199937

At U of Calgary police were called yesterday, protestors were told they could not set up an encampment, but were free to protest and could return the following day.  Most protestors left voluntarily, but a few dozen had to be forcibly cleared.

https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/edmonton/student-protesters-at-university-of-alberta-start-pro-palestinian-encampment-1.7199928

Encampment set up at U of A today.  Supposedly protestors were served with "eviction notices".  I suppose we'll see overnight what happens.

#45

Off the Record / Re: Israel-Hamas War 2023

Last post by Valmy - May 10, 2024, 12:26:53 PM

So obviously I can't comment on the motivations of every leftist, nor put numbers on how many feel this way - but come on.

It's not very hard at all to find anti-semitism in a hard-left mindspace.  As a leftist you're very suspicious of big corporations.  And who controls the big corporations?  Why the Jews of course!

I don't think the antisemitism on the hard left is through the "Jews control the big corporations" line of reasoning. I think the reasoning is an inability to distinguish between Jews and Israel, and holding that Israel is axiomatically evil; therefore antisemitism.

Yes. This.

But also there is a lot of overlap between the paranoid and anti-authoritarian left and right with people often moving between the two. So lots of conspiracy theories and nuttiness gets passed around on the fringes and that slowly spreads around both on the left and the right as trust of institutions wanes.

I mean prior to a decade ago I considered anti-vaccine conspiracy nuttery to be entirely a left wing phenomenon. And then very mysteriously it suddenly appeared and spread through the right wing.

#46

Off the Record / Re: Brexit and the waning days...

Last post by Barrister - May 10, 2024, 12:19:09 PM

The thing is - if this happened the Lib Dems would eventually be pretty much exactly like the Tories.

I can point to an example of this: British Columbia.  There wasa long-time "Conservative" Party that ruled the province for a number of years called the SoCreds.  SoCreds collapsed in scandal, leading to a left-wing NDP government.  With a giant void on the right side of the spectrum the provincial Liberals stepped in - but this pretty quickly made the Liberals the "Conservative" party in BC.

My understanding is that ex-SoCred folks directly took over the BC Liberal party. It's not that the BC Libs "stepped in", it's that the SoCreds continued as they were, wearing the skin of the BC Liberal party which they took over after the collapse of the SoCreds.

OK, could be.

But same difference.  There are many people "of the right".  If the UK Conservative Party is utterly destroyed, those people won't just go away.  Most likely they take over the LibDems, or else they build up a new party.

#47

Off the Record / Re: Israel-Hamas War 2023

Last post by Barrister - May 10, 2024, 12:16:34 PM

This is just sort of an aside.  My 10 year old was kind of interested in conspiracy theories.  He asked me once "what do you think the biggest conspiracy theory in the world is".

I think he expected me to say flat earth, or moon landings were fake, or something "fun".

Instead I had to answer "that Jews secretly control the world".

Now to our kids credit (or how he's been raised) I don't think he's ever heard of such a thing.  But sadly though I don't think he's ever met a jewish person, which is maybe just an Edmonton thing.  Jewish population in Winnipeg growing up was pretty significant.

#48

Off the Record / Re: Brexit and the waning days...

Last post by Jacob - May 10, 2024, 12:15:50 PM

The thing is - if this happened the Lib Dems would eventually be pretty much exactly like the Tories.

I can point to an example of this: British Columbia.  There wasa long-time "Conservative" Party that ruled the province for a number of years called the SoCreds.  SoCreds collapsed in scandal, leading to a left-wing NDP government.  With a giant void on the right side of the spectrum the provincial Liberals stepped in - but this pretty quickly made the Liberals the "Conservative" party in BC.

My understanding is that ex-SoCred folks directly took over the BC Liberal party. It's not that the BC Libs "stepped in", it's that the SoCreds continued as they were, wearing the skin of the BC Liberal party which they took over after the collapse of the SoCreds.

#49

Off the Record / Re: Israel-Hamas War 2023

Last post by Jacob - May 10, 2024, 12:12:00 PM

So obviously I can't comment on the motivations of every leftist, nor put numbers on how many feel this way - but come on.

It's not very hard at all to find anti-semitism in a hard-left mindspace.  As a leftist you're very suspicious of big corporations.  And who controls the big corporations?  Why the Jews of course!

I don't think the antisemitism on the hard left is through the "Jews control the big corporations" line of reasoning. I think the reasoning is an inability to distinguish between Jews and Israel, and holding that Israel is axiomatically evil; therefore antisemitism.

#50

Off the Record / Re: The Off Topic Topic

Last post by Maladict - May 10, 2024, 12:11:39 PM

Surprised the Dutch score so high on overweight... Again I do wonder whether Amsterdam and the surroundings are where all the thin people are.

On the contrary. Obesity is rife in the cities, mostly in the poorer neighbourhoods.