Rather than hijacking other threads, here is the thread both for macronolâtres and followers of the many-headed populist hydra, as well as whatever else in French politics.
Quote from: Richard Hakluyt on June 26, 2021, 03:10:32 PM
Chirac was tall though; good French presidents are tall, the little ones fail ;)
So Hollande failed I guess. :P Well, at least he is remembered now. He has been almost forgotten abroad, yet launched you know whom. :P
Quote from: Syt on June 26, 2021, 03:11:43 PM
I mean Mitterrand was 5'6
Metric, please, it's not imperial on the Mainland.
If it's just to mean he failed, yes and there were great hopes in the beginning.
1.820m is 6'. substract 150mm for 6" (give or take a couple of mm).
Btw, the head of Hydra is Le Pen?
I wonder how strong her FN nouveau will score at the next presidential election. She seems to have softened her party's image by a lot.
Quote from: Duque de Bragança on June 26, 2021, 03:12:41 PM
Quote from: Richard Hakluyt on June 26, 2021, 03:10:32 PM
Chirac was tall though; good French presidents are tall, the little ones fail ;)
So Hollande failed I guess. :P Well, at least he is remembered now. He has been almost forgotten abroad, yet launched you know whom. :P
An abiding image is Hollande pootling about on his scooter to visit his mistress. The bathos of this next to the pomp of the Élysée Palace just tickles my fancy for some reason :D
Quote from: Richard Hakluyt on June 27, 2021, 02:22:28 AM
Quote from: Duque de Bragança on June 26, 2021, 03:12:41 PM
Quote from: Richard Hakluyt on June 26, 2021, 03:10:32 PM
Chirac was tall though; good French presidents are tall, the little ones fail ;)
So Hollande failed I guess. :P Well, at least he is remembered now. He has been almost forgotten abroad, yet launched you know whom. :P
An abiding image is Hollande pootling about on his scooter to visit his mistress. The bathos of this next to the pomp of the Élysée Palace just tickles my fancy for some reason :D
Is it the address also perhaps? Rue du Cirque i.e Circus Street. Quite fitting for a clown as Flanby. :lol:
More iconic Flanby for you:
(https://file1.closermag.fr/var/closermag/storage/images/media/images-des-contenus/actu-people/politique/2014-02-01-le-quotidien-the-guardian-se-moque-de-francois-hollande/francois-hollande-en-train-de-courir-pour-eviter-la-pluie-le-31-janvier-2014-a-brize-norton/2468827-1-fre-FR/Francois-Hollande-en-train-de-courir-pour-eviter-la-pluie-le-31-janvier-2014-a-Brize-Norton.jpg?alias=original)
(https://static.lavenir.net/Assets/Images_Upload/Actu24/2014/02/01/Hollande2.jpg?maxheight=475&maxwidth=633&scale=both)
His scooter helmet sold quite well, sold out, so at least he had a positive effect on the French economy.
(https://languish.org/forums/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Feconomiepolitique.org%2Fwp-content%2Fuploads%2F2014%2F01%2Fphoto7.jpg&hash=2c1f7c6ff37b1584a0e6c8892a74370882fa1302)
Quote from: viper37 on June 26, 2021, 06:36:05 PM
Btw, the head of Hydra is Le Pen?
I wonder how strong her FN nouveau will score at the next presidential election. She seems to have softened her party's image by a lot.
One of the heads, with others such as Mélenchon, Zemmour etc. They regenerate or change from time to time think of the Lernæan Hydra. If it does not evoke anything, try Hercules: the Legendary Journeys. :D
Quote from: viper37 on June 26, 2021, 06:34:06 PM
1.820m is 6'. substract 150mm for 6" (give or take a couple of mm).
Height sizes are generally given in centimetres or metres. So 1,67 m or 167 cm roughly.
That's average for Mitterand's time I'd say. Not to mention Mitterand was no political dwarf. He would not have been slapped by a medieval geek.
He used anti-terrorist resources for political and personal reasons, made sure nobody knew about his illegitimate daughter, among other things.
Pleasingly disappointing for RN.
I find the trend really interesting that PS and the right survive relatively successfully in local politics, while RN and LREM are weak. But nationally, Macron and Le Pen remain the dominant personalities while PS and the diverse right are not looking great at all.
I still suspect the best bet for the right would be to look at Bertrand.
Very low voting though. Presidential elections have the highest turnout, and RN benefits a lot from the personnalisation of the campaign. Not to mention Jupin needs them in the run-off to be elected.
Lack of grassroots bases penalised the RN but even more so Jupin's "party" which is behind the RN, even in Île-de-France, and after the "left" sometimes.
Bertrand seems in a good position, Pécresse, the Versaillaise, could still be trouble for him, however.
Sad news:
the PCF lost its last controlled département, Val-de-Marne, bordering Paris city centre to the SE.
https://www.lefigaro.fr/elections/regionales/departementales-2021-le-pcf-perd-son-dernier-bastion-le-val-de-marne-20210627 (https://www.lefigaro.fr/elections/regionales/departementales-2021-le-pcf-perd-son-dernier-bastion-le-val-de-marne-20210627)
Why is that sad news? Did you have big hopes attached to the future of Communism? Or is this some sentimental thing?
Sentiment! A grand old party :(
Quote from: Valmy on June 27, 2021, 05:37:07 PM
Why is that sad news? Did you have big hopes attached to the future of Communism? Or is this some sentimental thing?
Semi-facetious. PCF was part of French political history and "red" suburbs were part of Paris and banlieue history.
Local, city communism in France did not lead to huge slaughters and genocides as in the USSR, China, Cambodia etc..
It was a useful counterweight for the proles vs proto-Macrons and the like, as long as the PCF does not gain power.
Let's just say the islamo-leftists replacing it are worse, much worse.
Plus, it reminds me of the late, great but ending on a sad note, George Marchais who partially destalinised the party. More liberal than the very un-destalinised PCP (that's in Portugal).
Inspired a lot of comedians. :D
Party has been almost dead for a while anyways, even trying the islamo-leftist route.
PS for Sheilbh:
the islamo-leftist turn was tried in 2010 by a small trot party LCR/NPA. The result was a huge internal crisis and mockery from the left and right reminding them of Religion being the Opium of the People. :lol:
Quote from: Duque de Bragança on June 27, 2021, 06:09:01 PM
the islamo-leftist turn was tried in 2010 by a small trot party LCR/NPA. The result was a huge internal crisis and mockery from the left and right reminding them of Religion being the Opium of the People. :lol:
who's laughing now though, given the metastasizing of islamo-gauchism...
Quote from: Crazy_Ivan80 on June 28, 2021, 03:17:35 PM
Quote from: Duque de Bragança on June 27, 2021, 06:09:01 PM
the islamo-leftist turn was tried in 2010 by a small trot party LCR/NPA. The result was a huge internal crisis and mockery from the left and right reminding them of Religion being the Opium of the People. :lol:
who's laughing now though, given the metastasizing of islamo-gauchism...
Not the trots in question, they are even more irrelevant.
Context:
Quote from: Sheilbh on June 28, 2021, 02:14:14 PM
Quote from: Valmy on June 28, 2021, 01:54:58 PM
What is Islamo-leftism? Like we should embrace traditional religion but in communes with centrally planned economics?
It's the 21st century version of Judeo-Bolshevism <_<
It's like anti-racism is the new anti-fascism I guess, a perfect tool to use useful idiots.
Valmy and Sheilbh asked for a definition of islamo-leftism/gauchisme. That was quite a gauche move. :P
Quote from: Valmy on June 27, 2021, 05:37:07 PM
Why is that sad news? Did you have big hopes attached to the future of Communism? Or is this some sentimental thing?
Nobody actually cared for the Barnum-Baily circus but it was vaguely sad when it closed
Quote from: chipwich on June 28, 2021, 05:05:18 PM
Quote from: Valmy on June 27, 2021, 05:37:07 PM
Why is that sad news? Did you have big hopes attached to the future of Communism? Or is this some sentimental thing?
Nobody actually cared for the Barnum-Baily circus but it was vaguely sad when it closed
Now, now... That's mean for the Barnum-Baily circus.
Quote from: chipwich on June 28, 2021, 05:05:18 PM
Quote from: Valmy on June 27, 2021, 05:37:07 PM
Why is that sad news? Did you have big hopes attached to the future of Communism? Or is this some sentimental thing?
Nobody actually cared for the Barnum-Baily circus but it was vaguely sad when it closed
That was what I meant by the sentimental thing. Sure I hated the old Southern Democrats/Dixiecrats but it was vaguely sad when the last few became Republicans back in the 2000s.
Lepen Sr says the RN has to man up and the party's gone tits up since it changed its name (formerly Front National).
Can't fight any links in English, sorry.
Lien en français (https://www.lapresse.ca/international/europe/2021-06-30/france/le-rn-doit-retrouver-sa-virilite-selon-jean-marie-le-pen.php)
Quote
(Paris) Jean-Marie Le Pen a souhaité mercredi que son ancien parti le Rassemblement national, présidé par sa fille Marine Le Pen et qui tient son congrès samedi et dimanche, retrouve sa « virilité », ou bien ce sera sa « disparition ».
« Aujourd'hui, ou Marine Le Pen revient aux fondamentaux, qui ne consiste pas seulement à les énoncer mais à les faire vivre, sur l'immigration, l'insécurité », avec « une reprise de la virilité, de la netteté des positions », ou bien ce sera sa « disparition », a déclaré celui qui a dirigé pendant près de 40 ans le FN, dans son Journal de bord vidéo diffusé mercredi.
« Ou bien Marine Le Pen retrouve les accents des combats précédents ou bien elle va progressivement s'effacer », a ajouté le co-fondateur du FN. Il estime que ce parti n'a « de chances de succès que sous une forme alternative au système ».
Au congrès du RN qui se tient samedi et dimanche à Perpignan, la cheffe du RN a « une obligation, de préciser ses positions et de revenir aux positions qui avaient fait la force et l'espérance de croissance du FN », a insisté Jean-Marie Le Pen.
Pour lui, « le congrès devrait être le moyen d'afficher un redressement politique, intellectuel, moral ».
L'ancien patron du FN a redit que la « délepénisation » du parti duquel il a été exclu en 2015 avait été « une faute politique » qui s'est « traduite par un échec électoral » aux régionales « et peut-être des échecs électoraux (à venir) si cette position était maintenue ».
M. Le Pen attribue aussi ce revers électoral au changement de nom, « qui était déjà une forme de recul ».
« La politique d'adaptation, de rapprochement du mouvement par rapport au pouvoir, à la droite ordinaire même, a été sanctionnée sévèrement » par les électeurs, selon lui.
Lady Marine wants to soften the image of the party, make it more palatable to the electorate and hopefully gain votes in the presidential elections to at least reach the 2nd turn.
Sir Jean-Marie wants his party to go back to its openly crypto-fascist roots while insisting they're not fascists.
At least, it's the way I understand this...
Nah, RN with Marine sweetening the party image is not manly enough, says Le Pen père. :P
Family feud goes on. :yawn:
"openly crypto" (sic) Nice oxymoron! :lol:
As for the so-called fascist roots, FN roots are the Algerian War and OAS, not Vichy. Even for Le Pen père.
Quote from: Duque de Bragança on July 01, 2021, 02:08:10 PM
As for the so-called fascist roots, FN roots are the Algerian War and OAS, not Vichy. Even for Le Pen père.
QuoteLe Pen directed the 1965 presidential campaign of far-right candidate Jean-Louis Tixier-Vignancour, who obtained 5.19% of the votes. He insisted on the rehabilitation of the Collaborationists, declaring that:
Was General de Gaulle more brave than Marshal Pétain in the occupied zone? This isn't sure. It was much easier to resist in London than to resist in France.
In 1962, Le Pen lost his seat in the Assembly. He created the Serp (Société d'études et de relations publiques) firm, a company involved in the music industry, which specialized in historical recordings and sold recordings of the choir of the CGT trade-union and songs of the Popular Front, as well as Nazi marches.
Seems he was a fan to me. too young to have collaborate with the Nazis, but certainly looks to be a fan of them. And tried to join the commies at the end of WWII. Enough to put on the bad side of history, says me. :P
Quote from: Duque de Bragança on July 01, 2021, 02:08:10 PM
As for the so-called fascist roots, FN roots are the Algerian War and OAS, not Vichy. Even for Le Pen père.
I find it so weird how openly hostile you are to every mainstream party in France but if it some kind of anti-Democratic reactionary group or the Communists suddenly you get all sentimental and defensive :hmm:
After all you have said about Macron and company why must we be so moderate and careful to hedge towards the FN? That seems weird.
Quote from: Valmy on July 01, 2021, 03:42:56 PM
Quote from: Duque de Bragança on July 01, 2021, 02:08:10 PM
As for the so-called fascist roots, FN roots are the Algerian War and OAS, not Vichy. Even for Le Pen père.
I find it so weird how openly hostile you are to every mainstream party in France but if it some kind of anti-Democratic reactionary group or the Communists suddenly you get all sentimental and defensive :hmm:
After all you have said about Macron and company why must we be so moderate and careful to hedge towards the FN? That seems weird.
Hostile to every mainstream party is not the same as being "hostile" to Jupin and his clique. As for anti-democratic and demagogue, Jupin is pretty good at it as well, not just the RN or Mélenchon.
Not to mention diabolising FN does not work, and one of the lackeys of your Maquereau boy found Marine too soft. ;) Darmanin, interior minister.
RN being described as anti-immigration or even reactionary (less than Al-Quran thumpers but that's another matter) is fine by me. I just see no factual evidence to call them fascists.
For instance, some temporary anti-terrorist laws are now permanent, without being specially effective against those they targeted.
PS: I thought the OAS connection would be damning enough, yet proved.
Quote from: Duque de Bragança on July 01, 2021, 02:08:10 PM
As for the so-called fascist roots, FN roots are the Algerian War and OAS, not Vichy. Even for Le Pen père.
You are underplaying the connection with Action Francaise and the general role of the FN as a political home for all strands of the French far right.
Quote from: The Minsky Moment on July 01, 2021, 04:10:57 PM
Quote from: Duque de Bragança on July 01, 2021, 02:08:10 PM
As for the so-called fascist roots, FN roots are the Algerian War and OAS, not Vichy. Even for Le Pen père.
You are underplaying the connection with Action Francaise and the general role of the FN as a political home for all strands of the French far right.
OAS is way more important. By the late Algerian War, OAS was far more than a bunch of old Action Française, which itself was not fascist. OAS recruitement was very diverse, with people from the left and right radicalising due to the withdrawal from Algeria decided by de Gaulle.
De Gaulle also had a connection with the Action Française in his youth years, Mitterrand as well. Maurras was a huge intellectual figure, who since he was right became mad. I'll let you find the author of the quote.
He also should have avoided de facto collaboration by siding with Pétain, specially since Maurras was quite the anti-German. If you want to have a look at what Maurrasism applied would have looked, it's Salazar. Certainly authoritarian, but not totalitarian.
I don't see Marine going this road and Le Pen père? I'm not sure he was structured intellectually and ideologically to apply had he been elected. He has been a troll for his whole career, except perhaps for his poujadiste past, where he was merely ultra-conservative. Then he argued that Islam was perfectly compatible with France, as he wanted to keep French Algeria.
Weren't it for Mitterand using him as a proxy to divide the right, in order to create a diversion for his failure at a socialiste program, he would have stayed at very low levels. Le Pen was not a problem in Giscard's time.
Do you really think for Jordan Barella, young RN IdF candidate or Marine Le Pen, the royalist Action Française matters that much nowadays?
Quote from: viper37 on July 01, 2021, 03:18:59 PM
Quote from: Duque de Bragança on July 01, 2021, 02:08:10 PM
As for the so-called fascist roots, FN roots are the Algerian War and OAS, not Vichy. Even for Le Pen père.
QuoteLe Pen directed the 1965 presidential campaign of far-right candidate Jean-Louis Tixier-Vignancour, who obtained 5.19% of the votes. He insisted on the rehabilitation of the Collaborationists, declaring that:
Was General de Gaulle more brave than Marshal Pétain in the occupied zone? This isn't sure. It was much easier to resist in London than to resist in France.
In 1962, Le Pen lost his seat in the Assembly. He created the Serp (Société d'études et de relations publiques) firm, a company involved in the music industry, which specialized in historical recordings and sold recordings of the choir of the CGT trade-union and songs of the Popular Front, as well as Nazi marches.
Seems he was a fan to me. too young to have collaborate with the Nazis, but certainly looks to be a fan of them. And tried to join the commies at the end of WWII. Enough to put on the bad side of history, says me. :P
Le Pen was also tempted to desert to Israel during the Suez expedition, impressed by the successes of zionism, with the kibbutz and citizen-army. Remember, until 1967 and De Gaulle in France, Israel was very popular both in the right and left.
I guess for this business attempt at selling records, he was more of an opportunist, à la Macron. Actually, Macron adapted one of Le Pen's early mottos: Ni Droite, ni gauche, Français. Macron remixed it as Ni Droite, ni Gauche. :P
Le Pen was also quite the free-marketeer in the '80s, claiming his admiration for the reforms of Reagan and Thatcher (Tyr will love that). A huge change from the first economic program of the FN.
If you want one politician who started on the extreme-right, demonstrating against "l'invasion des métèques", being pro-Maréchal Pétain during Vichy, switching sides only after Kursk, just to be sure, try Mitterand, who also was pro French Algeria but changed later on, unlike Le Pen.
Well, I don't think Le Pen wants Algeria to be French now, that would be bad for the party of his daughter. :lol:
So any chance of somebody not macron or the fascist?
Xavier Bertrand is looking good - rising in the polls and if I were on the French right I'd be looking at him closely. I think he's up to about 18% in the polls now.
The left: fragmented. Melenchon's polling at about 10%, while PS candidates are around the 5-10% region, as are the Greens.
Xavier Bertrand is threatened by internecine quarrels in his party, a specialty of the French right, once described as "la droite la plus bête du monde" (silliest right in the world).
Ambitions, egos etc.
Quote from: Duque de Bragança on July 01, 2021, 04:23:07 PM
Do you really think for Jordan Barella, young RN IdF candidate or Marine Le Pen, the royalist Action Française matters that much nowadays?
I think Marine's move to a big tent of the right is genuine, but the fascists have always been skulking around in that tent and still are.
Quote from: The Minsky Moment on July 01, 2021, 05:59:14 PM
Quote from: Duque de Bragança on July 01, 2021, 04:23:07 PM
Do you really think for Jordan Barella, young RN IdF candidate or Marine Le Pen, the royalist Action Française matters that much nowadays?
I think Marine's move to a big tent of the right is genuine, but the fascists have always been skulking around in that tent and still are.
Big tent of the right yes but including some old-guard left-wing sovereignists. Some chevènementistes for the ones interested in French politics of some time ago.
I would say following the (former chevènementiste) Phillipot's departure to create a new party, and his subsequent failure, anti-EU sovereignism has actually decreased, leaving Frexit and quitting the Euro for fringe formations.
For the Action française, RN is republican anyways. so that's a no.
The one possible convergence between RN and both the old (French extreme-right)and new anti-semitism (banlieue islamists) has been severed with the end of the direct Soral/Dieudonné influence in the party.
Le Pen father is godfather of one the daughters of Dieudonné, this is no coincidence.
Being noted over here that Michel Barnier's (doomed) run for President as candidate of the centre-right is striking quite a lot of Brexity notes :lol:
In particular he's made proposals about free movement that are roughly the same as David Cameron's aims in the renegotiation. Now he's also said France must reclaim its "legal sovereignty" from decisions of the CJEU and ECHR. He also proposes a referendum on all non-EU immigration in September (he has previously called for a "pause" to all non-EU immigration).
The legal sovereignty point is something that should worry the EU because it is fighting that battle around supremacy on several fronts, with different member states. It's being challenged by at least Germany, Poland and France right now (it's striking the different issues causing problems: Germany - common debt/ECB; Poland - rule of law issues; France - bulk interception/mass surveillance/national security). I think the Economist column was right that Europe faces these twin moments which I think are both very important: on the one hand the long talked about "Hamiltonian" moment in the covid recovery fund (especially if similar process could be used for energy transition - and it should be); on the other a Calhounian moment, with a nullification crisis of who gets to decide the meaning and content of EU law.
I think I said at the time of German ruling - I think it was wrong and beyond their powers as a court within the EU. But we sort of tolerate little bits of over-reach from the German Constitutional Court (which it does a lot in the realm of EU law - as I say the UK v German interpretation of the supremacy of EU law as explained to me in law school are very different) because they are good judges and we trust that court. It applies a lot less when it's a packed constitutional court in Poland but it has the same formal position and rights (I'd proabbly argue the same for most couts, like the French, ruling on national security because they tend to defer to the execuitve on those issues). And if you're not convinced that all the judges across all member states will behave with similar probity and principle as the German Constitutional Court, then it's really important to make the formal rules strict and apply even there.
First time I hear about a run by Michel Barnier. :lol:
Seems souverainist, but nothing Zemmour or even Marine would disagree with, unlike Zupiter.
He has no chance, bless.
And given the polling it feels like it'd be crazy for the centre right to go for anyone but Bertrand. At least at this stage.
Ah yes. Assuming the far right are acting in good faith with their demands. Always a critical error.
Quote from: Tyr on September 09, 2021, 11:11:55 AM
Ah yes. Assuming the far right are acting in good faith with their demands. Always a critical error.
Makes Macron a member of the far-right I guess. :D
Quote from: Duque de Bragança on September 09, 2021, 11:58:42 AM
Quote from: Tyr on September 09, 2021, 11:11:55 AM
Ah yes. Assuming the far right are acting in good faith with their demands. Always a critical error.
Makes Macron a member of the far-right I guess. :D
Politicians are different :P otherwise every party would be far-right.
I think Tyr is talking about the actual members.
Quote from: Valmy on September 09, 2021, 01:03:11 PM
Quote from: Duque de Bragança on September 09, 2021, 11:58:42 AM
Quote from: Tyr on September 09, 2021, 11:11:55 AM
Ah yes. Assuming the far right are acting in good faith with their demands. Always a critical error.
Makes Macron a member of the far-right I guess. :D
Politicians are different :P otherwise every party would be far-right.
I think Tyr is talking about the actual members.
Still not just actual members of the far-right.
Quote from: Duque de Bragança on September 09, 2021, 01:11:56 PM
Still not just actual members of the far-right.
True but you are putting in commentary that is not there. Tyr is not saying ONLY the Far-Right doesn't act in good faith, just that they are notorious for it.
Quote from: Valmy on September 09, 2021, 01:14:27 PM
Quote from: Duque de Bragança on September 09, 2021, 01:11:56 PM
Still not just actual members of the far-right.
True but you are putting in commentary that is not there. Tyr is not saying ONLY the Far-Right doesn't act in good faith, just that they are notorious for it.
Given Tyr's well known bias, that does not seem a stretch. :P
Quote from: Valmy on September 09, 2021, 01:03:11 PM
Politicians are different :P otherwise every party would be far-right.
I'd carve out the US because reasons, but I think most politicians most of the time are acting in good faith, but to govern is to choose.
Quote from: Sheilbh on September 09, 2021, 01:33:38 PM
Quote from: Valmy on September 09, 2021, 01:03:11 PM
Politicians are different :P otherwise every party would be far-right.
I'd carve out the US because reasons, but I think most politicians most of the time are acting in good faith, but to govern is to choose.
This is French politics remember:
Gouverner c'est prévoir. :P
Quote from: Duque de Bragança on September 09, 2021, 01:16:04 PM
Quote from: Valmy on September 09, 2021, 01:14:27 PM
Quote from: Duque de Bragança on September 09, 2021, 01:11:56 PM
Still not just actual members of the far-right.
True but you are putting in commentary that is not there. Tyr is not saying ONLY the Far-Right doesn't act in good faith, just that they are notorious for it.
Given Tyr's well known bias, that does not seem a stretch. :P
Well that's true :P
Plastic Bertrand is Belgian. :P
Quote from: Duque de Bragança on September 09, 2021, 05:21:10 PM
Plastic Bertrand is Belgian. :P
There's no such thing as Belgians, just ask Jules Destrée, or Talleyrand if you don't believe Destrée
Quote from: Crazy_Ivan80 on September 11, 2021, 07:28:09 AM
Quote from: Duque de Bragança on September 09, 2021, 05:21:10 PM
Plastic Bertrand is Belgian. :P
There's no such thing as Belgians, just ask Jules Destrée, or Talleyrand if you don't believe Destrée
Talleyrand is too slimy for my taste, sorry. I am not arguing with his historic importance.
The bravest of the Gauls do not exist anymore? What? :D
Jules Destrée is, well, Belgian, for the lack of a better word I guess.
Quote from: Duque de Bragança on September 11, 2021, 07:33:21 AM
Quote from: Crazy_Ivan80 on September 11, 2021, 07:28:09 AM
Quote from: Duque de Bragança on September 09, 2021, 05:21:10 PM
Plastic Bertrand is Belgian. :P
There's no such thing as Belgians, just ask Jules Destrée, or Talleyrand if you don't believe Destrée
Talleyrand is too slimy for my taste, sorry. I am not arguing with his historic importance.
The bravest of the Gauls do not exist anymore? What? :D
Jules Destrée is, well, Belgian, for the lack of a better word I guess.
Walloon. Destrée is famous for writing the "Lettre au roi sur la séparation de la Wallonie et de la Flandre".
There he stated that a unitary belgium basically cannot work because there's no such thing as belgian, only flemish and walloons. (in the mean time we also know that a federal belgium also cannot work because the francophones aren't really trustworthy when it comes to implementing made agreements). In the same letter he also made a number of spurious claims, one of which is that the flemish stole flanders from the francophones. (the letter was countered in the "Réponse à la lettre au Roi sur la séparation de la Wallonie et de la Flandre" by Hippoliet Meert)
All in 1912.
anyways, none of it has anything to do with France, or with plastic betrand
"For each politician below, please indicate if they would be a better president than Macron:"
(https://preview.redd.it/01sycnesuwm71.png?width=640&height=623&crop=smart&auto=webp&s=acd63479e5f2f70c36279f5aa6f2b6be42de06ef)
:hmm: :frog:
So 14% haven't even heard of the runner up from the last election? Even Texans are impressed by that level of political detachment.
Quote from: Valmy on September 12, 2021, 12:53:56 AM
So 14% haven't even heard of the runner up from the last election? Even Texans are impressed by that level of political detachment.
No, dark grey is "I don't know", light grey is "I don't know this person."
This calls for Napoleon IV.
Or. Err. Whatever number they're up to now.
Quote from: Syt on September 12, 2021, 12:17:31 AM
"For each politician below, please indicate if they would be a better president than Macron:"
(https://preview.redd.it/01sycnesuwm71.png?width=640&height=623&crop=smart&auto=webp&s=acd63479e5f2f70c36279f5aa6f2b6be42de06ef)
:hmm: :frog:
Missing Zemmour. However, he has not declared himself to be a candidate. If he does, Marine won't be a certain run-off rival for Jupin, so the Mitterrand trick of using the far-right to divide the right would fail.
Quote from: Syt on September 12, 2021, 12:17:31 AM
"For each politician below, please indicate if they would be a better president than Macron:"
[...]
:hmm: :frog:
I'm not sure how relevant that question is - I say that just because I feel like I've seen similar polls in the UK and I think it always has a huge incumbent bias because we can imagine them in that role.
But we are so far out all polling at this point is not too meaningful yet - I suspect Hidalgo and Bertrand will climb (especially now Hidalgo's formally launched her campaign).
Edit: And, as much as I bemoan the British left, I just looked and I think there are already 5 left candidates running in France plus the eventual PS candidates. I'll never understand the left's love of splitting into a dozen different factions and consequently losing :lol: :weep:
Hidalgo? :lmfao:
Notre Dame des Bobos is a joke, no appeal beyond the périphérique.
Provincial bobos might consider voting for her but she has no real chances. She will divide further more the left-wing vote.
Quote from: Crazy_Ivan80 on September 11, 2021, 07:28:09 AM
Quote from: Duque de Bragança on September 09, 2021, 05:21:10 PM
Plastic Bertrand is Belgian. :P
There's no such thing as Belgians, just ask Jules Destrée, or Talleyrand if you don't believe Destrée
The Walloons identify as Belgians. I have yet to meet a Walloon who calls himself Walloon first. Flemings are another matter. To "Where are you from?", "Flanders" is the answer 9 times out of 10.
Quote from: viper37 on September 16, 2021, 12:28:28 PM
Quote from: Crazy_Ivan80 on September 11, 2021, 07:28:09 AM
Quote from: Duque de Bragança on September 09, 2021, 05:21:10 PM
Plastic Bertrand is Belgian. :P
There's no such thing as Belgians, just ask Jules Destrée, or Talleyrand if you don't believe Destrée
The Walloons identify as Belgians. I have yet to meet a Walloon who calls himself Walloon first. Flemings are another matter. To "Where are you from?", "Flanders" is the answer 9 times out of 10.
Walloons only identify as "Belgian" because of money. So they can identify as belgians as much as they like, no one is fooled.
Quote from: viper37 on September 16, 2021, 12:28:28 PM
Quote from: Crazy_Ivan80 on September 11, 2021, 07:28:09 AM
Quote from: Duque de Bragança on September 09, 2021, 05:21:10 PM
Plastic Bertrand is Belgian. :P
There's no such thing as Belgians, just ask Jules Destrée, or Talleyrand if you don't believe Destrée
The Walloons identify as Belgians. I have yet to meet a Walloon who calls himself Walloon first. Flemings are another matter. To "Where are you from?", "Flanders" is the answer 9 times out of 10.
And only because the 10th guy happened to be born abroad.
Quote from: Crazy_Ivan80 on September 16, 2021, 02:22:37 PM
Quote from: viper37 on September 16, 2021, 12:28:28 PM
Quote from: Crazy_Ivan80 on September 11, 2021, 07:28:09 AM
Quote from: Duque de Bragança on September 09, 2021, 05:21:10 PM
Plastic Bertrand is Belgian. :P
There's no such thing as Belgians, just ask Jules Destrée, or Talleyrand if you don't believe Destrée
The Walloons identify as Belgians. I have yet to meet a Walloon who calls himself Walloon first. Flemings are another matter. To "Where are you from?", "Flanders" is the answer 9 times out of 10.
Walloons only identify as "Belgian" because of money.
It's irrelevant what their reason is. You may call yourself Flemish for a variety of reasons, it doesn't change the fact that you feel Flemish. There might be the odd Flemish born abroad ( :P ) who identifies as Belgian, but it's also irrelevant as to why he does it.
I've recently read about the French regions. It's fascinating France was able to get this logical reform through (the UK needs it too. And failed largely.).
Though one thing I'm really curious about is the generally rather awful naming - nouvelle aquitaine for instance... How was this OK where aquitaine wasn't?
Quote from: Duque de Bragança on September 09, 2021, 05:21:10 PM
Plastic Bertrand is Belgian. :P
The one decent French pop song in the history of music is not French! :o
I see someone decided to do a far left v far right debate tonight :blink: :bleeding:
Melenchon v Zemmour - which is a journalistic/broadcasting decision I suppose.
Quote from: Sheilbh on September 23, 2021, 04:16:47 PM
I see someone decided to do a far left v far right debate tonight :blink: :bleeding:
Melenchon v Zemmour - which is a journalistic/broadcasting decision I suppose.
not sure if Zemmour is far right though.
he is
Yeah I don't really see how we can say a guy who is outflanking Le Pen isn't on the far-right...
Quote from: Sheilbh on September 23, 2021, 04:16:47 PM
I see someone decided to do a far left v far right debate tonight :blink: :bleeding:
Melenchon v Zemmour - which is a journalistic/broadcasting decision I suppose.
It's from the channel which propped up your boy Macron, your former golden calf. :P Burning golden calf now I presume? :D
I thought Identity Politics minded people would love it. Both born in North Africa, one Freemason and of Berberian Jewish ascendancy (no Sephardi sorry), so none of these dominant traditional Catholic Christian white males. :P
Only caught the tail end. Not brilliant, but not as agitated as I thought it would be.
Both agreed a Revolution was necessary, though they disagreed on the nature. Mélenchon would get lots of opt-outs from the EU, Zemmour was skeptical about Mélenchon's being able to do so.
However, Zemmour agreed to get rid of "pesky" EU limitations and "government of judges", namely on immigration and family regrouping. Mélenchon, being mostly based on muslim votes and far-left bobos did not, in this instance.
Mélenchon unsuccessfully tried to insinuate Zemmour's would be petainist by calling it "Révolution nationale". It failed, so he had to explain it and ruin the innuendo. I am not sure Mélenchon islamic banlieue audience would get it anyways.
Mélenchon also tries to pose as green now, and wants to decommission nuclear power plants early (prematurely if you ask me). Zemmour sees them as compulsory, not just for ecological reason, but strategic independence reasons.
As always with Mélenchon, French history only starts from 1789, with the people's revolution of 1789. :D
Best retort I saw came from Zemmour when he disparaged the "full constituting powers" (la Constituante) necessary for Mélenchon to implement his VIth Republic since it would bring back the dreadful IVth Republic. Zemmour being the Gaullo-bonapartist he is, obviously despises it and stated it was a typical left-wing objective. :D
PS: if people mean by far right (neo-) nazis this is obviously and hilariously wrong about Zemmour. Right-wing souverainist and anti-immigration (not all in fact) are more accurate. Not to mention he defended in his book the former PCF leader, Georges Marchais, describing him as the last gaullist.
Quote from: Sheilbh on September 24, 2021, 08:49:26 AM
Yeah I don't really see how we can say a guy who is outflanking Le Pen isn't on the far-right...
Marine also had an economics program close to Mélenchon last time and Zemmour is not at all a classical liberal or neo-liberal.
There is a huge overlap between Marine and Zemmour. Some Fillon voters could also feel at home specially they put away some their class interests, to quote the Marxian (not Marxist obviously) Zemmour. :P Not those who turned coats and went over to Macron obviously.
Quote from: Admiral Yi on September 23, 2021, 04:11:06 PM
Quote from: Duque de Bragança on September 09, 2021, 05:21:10 PM
Plastic Bertrand is Belgian. :P
The one decent French pop song in the history of music is not French! :o
Weak troll, leave trolling to pros such as Le Pen (père).
Quote from: Duque de Bragança on September 24, 2021, 08:58:26 AM
It's from the channel which propped up your boy Macron, your former golden calf. :P Burning golden calf now I presume? :D
Yeah I loved Macron as a candidate. I still think a lot of his analysis - especially on global/foreign policy is spot on - but I don't think he's been effective. Of course it's difficult to be as ambitious as he is and I think Europe needs to be with other forces in Europe.
But he has been basically a think-tanker in chief and I think he is the model of the techno-populist with all of the faults and issues of technocracy and populism with none of the benefits of either. Which is perhaps a function of the office.
QuoteI thought Identity Politics minded people would love it. Both born in North Africa, one Freemason and of Berberian Jewish ascendancy (no Sephardi sorry), so none of these dominant traditional Catholic Christian white males. :P
I'm just going to put this down on the very long list of you clearly not really understanding identity politics :P
QuoteAs always with Mélenchon, French history only starts from 1789, with the people's revolution of 1789. :D
(https://c.tenor.com/RbnaVKj3e88AAAAC/why-are-you-booing-me-im-right.gif)
The rest is prologue.
QuotePS: if people mean by far right (neo-) nazis this is obviously and hilariously wrong about Zemmour. Right-wing souverainist and anti-immigration (not all in fact) are more accurate. Not to mention he defended in his book the former PCF leader, Georges Marchais, describing him as the last gaullist.
I don't just mean neo-nazi or nazi because I don't think political movements are sort of preserved in amber but change and evolve and move. They're heavily contingent bodies of thought and practice - I can't imagine anything more changeable.
QuoteMarine also had an economics program close to Mélenchon last time and Zemmour is not at all a classical liberal or neo-liberal.
There is a huge overlap between Marine and Zemmour. Some Fillon voters could also feel at home specially they put away some their class interests, to quote the Marxian (not Marxist obviously) Zemmour. :P Not those who turned coats and went over to Macron obviously.
Sure but the last time the right-left economics axis was the primary one in politics was probably about 50 years ago (it might return - I think it will). Especially in a Eurozone context where the current rules and treaties very tightly circumscribe the range of acceptable politics, which I think is, in part, why the fringes thrive.
so not extreme-right. gotcha.
Quote from: Sheilbh on September 24, 2021, 09:40:08 AM
Quote from: Duque de Bragança on September 24, 2021, 08:58:26 AM
It's from the channel which propped up your boy Macron, your former golden calf. :P Burning golden calf now I presume? :D
Yeah I loved Macron as a candidate. I still think a lot of his analysis - especially on global/foreign policy is spot on - but I don't think he's been effective. Of course it's difficult to be as ambitious as he is and I think Europe needs to be with other forces in Europe.
But he has been basically a think-tanker in chief and I think he is the model of the techno-populist with all of the faults and issues of technocracy and populism with none of the benefits of either. Which is perhaps a function of the office.
Now, that's mean for populists. I believe demagogue is a better word for Macron since Macron never claimed to stand for the people and spoke and did a lot against the "populo" (the little people in French).
QuoteI thought Identity Politics minded people would love it. Both born in North Africa, one Freemason and of Berberian Jewish ascendancy (no Sephardi sorry), so none of these dominant traditional Catholic Christian white males. :P
Quote
I'm just going to put this down on the very long list of you clearly not really understanding identity politics :P
Identity politics is a big, nefarious, incoherent mess, ranging from nazism to islamism, with varying degrees of leftist useful idiots.
Nowadays, the part where the white males, be them bourgeois/"dominant" or not are the new Untermenschen, seems pretty much accepted, except for the local far-right, not imported far-right à
la Indigènes de la République or Grey Wolves (finally banned by Macron's clique for the latter).
Do some research on the PIR(e), starting by their leader Houria Bouteldja.
QuoteAs always with Mélenchon, French history only starts from 1789, with the people's revolution of 1789. :D
Quote
(https://c.tenor.com/RbnaVKj3e88AAAAC/why-are-you-booing-me-im-right.gif)
The rest is prologue.
Meme use à la Syt's sisters? Nice argument. :D
Mélenchon is a Robespierre wannabe, so it's 1793 for him, not 1789. :contract:
QuotePS: if people mean by far right (neo-) nazis this is obviously and hilariously wrong about Zemmour. Right-wing souverainist and anti-immigration (not all in fact) are more accurate. Not to mention he defended in his book the former PCF leader, Georges Marchais, describing him as the last gaullist.
Quote
I don't just mean neo-nazi or nazi because I don't think political movements are sort of preserved in amber but change and evolve and move. They're heavily contingent bodies of thought and practice - I can't imagine anything more changeable.
So it's just some opportunist dog whistling politics though. But then, even De Gaulle was called far right (by leftists) or even fascist (May 1968) in his days.
QuoteMarine also had an economics program close to Mélenchon last time and Zemmour is not at all a classical liberal or neo-liberal.
There is a huge overlap between Marine and Zemmour. Some Fillon voters could also feel at home specially they put away some their class interests, to quote the Marxian (not Marxist obviously) Zemmour. :P Not those who turned coats and went over to Macron obviously.
Quote
Sure but the last time the right-left economics axis was the primary one in politics was probably about 50 years ago (it might return - I think it will). Especially in a Eurozone context where the current rules and treaties very tightly circumscribe the range of acceptable politics, which I think is, in part, why the fringes thrive.
It may seem unimportant because Macron keeps having contradictory statements but his position in the economics axis is pretty well known.
I'm glad to see you agree with Mélenchon and Zemmour about rules and treaties having (too?) much power.
I mentioned earlier that Mélenchon's misinterpretation of French history is probably too demanding for his islamic banlieue clientèle but to be fair, Zemmour warning of France's "libanisation" (from Lebanon) will not be understood by the average voter.
Debate a bit professorial from the little I saw.
Balkanisation would be better understood IMO.
I missed Mélenchon's cheapest attack on Zemmour.
Mélenchon said Zemmouristan already existed, it's called Saudi Arabia.
:lmfao:
Coming from someone that relies so heavily on muslim and islamist votes that's hilariously cheap.
Even more of a demagog than Jupin. :lol:
Zemmour, not being a feminist, is obviously in the same boat as Saudi Arabia.
QuoteIdentity politics is a big, nefarious, incoherent mess, ranging from nazism to islamism, with varying degrees of leftist useful idiots.
Nowadays, the part where the white males, be them bourgeois/"dominant" or not are the new Untermenschen, seems pretty much accepted, except for the local far-right, not imported far-right à
la Indigènes de la République or Grey Wolves (finally banned by Macron's clique for the latter).
Do some research on the PIR(e), starting by their leader Houria Bouteldja.
Maybe things are different in France. I really don't know. But it's funny that this is the total opposite of identity politics in an American-British context.
In the Anglo world identity politics is a tried and tested tactic of the right to get poor people to vote for them-because the rich upper class millionaire is totally more their people than that trans woman living across the street.
I certainly hope things are different in France, or in Europe for that matter than the anglo-word, but I am afraid your personal definition of identity politics is seen through rose-tinted glasses.
Zemmour may not be far-right in terms of economics, but he is a reactionary racist.
He's well read and a great orator. Wielding the verbal art of ridicule still matters in France, so he does captivate.
Still a reactionary racist though. Probably jerks off to Pétain's portrait.
Reactionary is certainly the label he chose. As for racist, for his generation it has a different meaning cf. Colombey-les Deux Églises plutôt que Colombey-les-Deux-Mosquées as said by de Gaulle to justify the independence of Algeria. Bonaparte and de Gaulle being his idols, rather than WWII Pétain, to the point of only seeing the good parts.
Besides, Mélenchon has a history of racism or ethnic prejudice against Balts, specially Lithuanians inventing a Lithuanian SS division, not just out of subservience to Putin (Zemmour does not avoid putinolatry but avoids racism against Balts) or blond people.
http://operacritiques.free.fr/css/index.php?2006/05/06/213-jean-luc-melenchon-et-la-lituanie (http://operacritiques.free.fr/css/index.php?2006/05/06/213-jean-luc-melenchon-et-la-lituanie)
QuoteJean-Luc Mélenchon critique « l'idée d'une France blonde aux yeux bleus »243 ; il affirme par la suite ne pas pouvoir « survivre dans un pays où il n'y a que des blonds aux yeux bleus »244. Lors de la campagne présidentielle de 2012, il insiste sur l'importance du « vivre ensemble » et prononce une « ode à la Méditerranée et au métissage », déclarant notamment qu'« il n'y a pas d'avenir pour la France sans les Arabes et les Berbères du Maghreb »245. Ce discours lui aurait fait perdre des voix, notamment auprès de l'électorat populaire blanc245,246.
Nice non sequitur, that mythical blue-eyed blonde France. :D
https://fr.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jean-Luc_Mélenchon (https://fr.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jean-Luc_M%C3%A9lenchon)
From wiki, but the article is sourced and his statements and behavior are well known.
Quote from: Duque de Bragança on September 24, 2021, 10:00:15 AM
Now, that's mean for populists. I believe demagogue is a better word for Macron since Macron never claimed to stand for the people and spoke and did a lot against the "populo" (the little people in French).
I'm not really sure of the difference or that it matters :hmm:
QuoteIdentity politics is a big, nefarious, incoherent mess, ranging from nazism to islamism, with varying degrees of leftist useful idiots.
Nowadays, the part where the white males, be them bourgeois/"dominant" or not are the new Untermenschen, seems pretty much accepted, except for the local far-right, not imported far-right à
la Indigènes de la République or Grey Wolves (finally banned by Macron's clique for the latter).
Do some research on the PIR(e), starting by their leader Houria Bouteldja.
Yeah - I'm not really following on this either, I'm afraid. I am pretty sure that white men are not persecuted however :P
QuoteMeme use à la Syt's sisters? Nice argument. :D
Mélenchon is a Robespierre wannabe, so it's 1793 for him, not 1789. :contract:
1793's just the natrual, logical extension of 1789.
And I've always been pro-meme.
QuoteSo it's just some opportunist dog whistling politics though. But then, even De Gaulle was called far right (by leftists) or even fascist (May 1968) in his days.
Sure - but politics moves and changes it's not fixed. I don't see why we should "no true Scotsman" the far-right into oblivion when we don't to any other political party/movement, unless we want to pretend the far-right doesn't exist.
We don't make up an arbitrary point for the right or left or any other political movement and say that it's the yard stick all future politicians will be judged by for whether they're "left" or "right" - because it would be absurd and turn politics into sort of angels on the pin of a head definitional debates.
QuoteIt may seem unimportant because Macron keeps having contradictory statements but his position in the economics axis is pretty well known.
It seems unimportant because it is. There was more or less class warfare in 70s and 80s with proper organised labour and propoer organised capital - capital won. And since then we've seen many core economic issues pushed out of democratic politics. Monetary policy shifts in full to the independent central banks as do other stabilisation mechanisms ("The ECB is a monument to
the proposition that money is too serious to be left to politicians: in these matters there is no such thing as a responsible politician, democratic money is bad money"); there's various restrictions through international trade standards and, in Europe, trade policy is squarely an EU competence as are a number of regulatory areas; to encourage fair competition there's restrictions on state aid and nationalisations; now there are restrictions on fiscal policy.
So if you want fundamental economic reform on any of those points you have to be positing an overthrow of certain technocratic functions, tearing up treaties or some other serious disruption. Again, that's deliberate and those politicians are broadly out of the mainstream or beyond the pale. The consequence of removing so much of economic policy from democratic politics is that what you're left with is questions of distribution which will always end up being about immigration/identity (who's in/out, deserving/not etc) and culture. The liberal turn in the 80s banked their economic policy wins, but the consequence is our current politics, including all the dysfunctional bits. And that's going to keep happening until we either bring back core economic questions as subjects of debate and difference within democratic politics, or (within the Eurozone) move the democratic politics up a level so the powers sit with elected European officials.
Macron's economic stance is meaningless - the space for operation within the mainstream is basically between third way, 90s centre left and 2010s austerity centre right. There are differences but they're pretty marginal.
QuoteI'm glad to see you agree with Mélenchon and Zemmour about rules and treaties having (too?) much power.
It's not too much necessarily - this is partly why I liked Macron to begin with. My view is that the Eurozone needs to take the plunge and start having democratically decision makers at a European level - especially if it moves into doing more policies like the coronavirus recovery fund (which is very good). That needs to be wrestled from the hands of technocrats and be a subject of debate, discussion and difference within Europe.
Absent that, especially if there's no follow up to the recovery fund, then I think Europe just rolls on with a half complete union until the next crisis and we just keep repeating that cycle (I think the risk of the FDP being in a coalition in Germany and taking the Finance Ministry, aligning more with the Netherlands/Austria etc bloc is a real worry because I think it'd have really negative long-term consequences).
Having said that I think the EU is operating at the edge of the treaties right now and for the last few years and I think the treaties probably need to be re-opened to legitimise anything else. My hope would be that's in the direction of more integration and more Europe, not less.
Quote from: Duque de Bragança on September 25, 2021, 07:31:29 AM
Reactionary is certainly the label he chose. As for racist, for his generation it has a different meaning cf. Colombey-les Deux Églises plutôt que Colombey-les-Deux-Mosquées as said by de Gaulle to justify the independence of Algeria.
somewhere along the way, somebody fucked up nicely! :P
Quote from: viper37 on September 25, 2021, 05:44:10 PM
Quote from: Duque de Bragança on September 25, 2021, 07:31:29 AM
Reactionary is certainly the label he chose. As for racist, for his generation it has a different meaning cf. Colombey-les Deux Églises plutôt que Colombey-les-Deux-Mosquées as said by de Gaulle to justify the independence of Algeria.
somewhere along the way, somebody fucked up nicely! :P
Ask Zemmour who it was. :P
Quote from: Sheilbh on September 25, 2021, 04:02:57 PM
Quote
Now, that's mean for populists. I believe demagogue is a better word for Macron since Macron never claimed to stand for the people and spoke and did a lot against the "populo" (the little people in French).
Quote
I'm not really sure of the difference or that it matters :hmm:
It does. Words have meaning. Macron never claimed to stand for the people though he even claimed once he was a socialist. :D Of course, populists may very well use demagoguery, cf. Mélenchon.
QuoteIdentity politics is a big, nefarious, incoherent mess, ranging from nazism to islamism, with varying degrees of leftist useful idiots.
Nowadays, the part where the white males, be them bourgeois/"dominant" or not are the new Untermenschen, seems pretty much accepted, except for the local far-right, not imported far-right à
la Indigènes de la République or Grey Wolves (finally banned by Macron's clique for the latter).
Do some research on the PIR(e), starting by their leader Houria Bouteldja.
Quote
Yeah - I'm not really following on this either, I'm afraid. I am pretty sure that white men are not persecuted however :P
First part, your ignorance of the local "French" Identity Politics removes any chance of serious analysis of the French situation.
Second part is you putting words into my mouth. Ever heard of class warfare? White proles? Specially those living in the banlieues? :) Not to mention proles can be female. Women get other "challenges" in the banlieues.
QuoteMeme use à la Syt's sisters? Nice argument. :D
Mélenchon is a Robespierre wannabe, so it's 1793 for him, not 1789. :contract:
1793's just the natrual, logical extension of 1789.
Not at all. 1793 was the consequence of mistakes by Girondins, namely the war, which Robespierre opposed. One has to show proper credit to Robespierre, for once. :P
Quote
And I've always been pro-meme.
Sorry, not good enough.
QuoteSo it's just some opportunist dog whistling politics though. But then, even De Gaulle was called far right (by leftists) or even fascist (May 1968) in his days.
Quote
Sure - but politics moves and changes it's not fixed. I don't see why we should "no true Scotsman" the far-right into oblivion when we don't to any other political party/movement, unless we want to pretend the far-right doesn't exist.
The leftists still use of far-right is for nazism, they are the one who have not changed. Until then, far-right is too vague and has to be described more in detail.
Quote
We don't make up an arbitrary point for the right or left or any other political movement and say that it's the yard stick all future politicians will be judged by for whether they're "left" or "right" - because it would be absurd and turn politics into sort of angels on the pin of a head definitional debates.
Who's we? Like it not, 1917, 1922 or 1933 will still remain as political references for some time. Some candidates in France even go as far as 1789, with some merit, though their interpretation leaves much to desire.
QuoteIt may seem unimportant because Macron keeps having contradictory statements but his position in the economics axis is pretty well known.
Quote
It seems unimportant because it is. There was more or less class warfare in 70s and 80s with proper organised labour and propoer organised capital - capital won. And since then we've seen many core economic issues pushed out of democratic politics. Monetary policy shifts in full to the independent central banks as do other stabilisation mechanisms ("The ECB is a monument to
the proposition that money is too serious to be left to politicians: in these matters there is no such thing as a responsible politician, democratic money is bad money"); there's various restrictions through international trade standards and, in Europe, trade policy is squarely an EU competence as are a number of regulatory areas; to encourage fair competition there's restrictions on state aid and nationalisations; now there are restrictions on fiscal policy.
My point earlier on. Class warfare still exists but not as successful for the proles, divided by Identity Politics.
Macron's disparaging comments on poors, proles and the like are infamous in the French context.
Quote
So if you want fundamental economic reform on any of those points you have to be positing an overthrow of certain technocratic functions, tearing up treaties or some other serious disruption. Again, that's deliberate and those politicians are broadly out of the mainstream or beyond the pale. The consequence of removing so much of economic policy from democratic politics is that what you're left with is questions of distribution which will always end up being about immigration/identity (who's in/out, deserving/not etc) and culture. The liberal turn in the 80s banked their economic policy wins, but the consequence is our current politics, including all the dysfunctional bits. And that's going to keep happening until we either bring back core economic questions as subjects of debate and difference within democratic politics, or (within the Eurozone) move the democratic politics up a level so the powers sit with elected European officials.
Agreed but overthrowing technocratic functions is far from overthrowing a democratic regime, a common accusation against those who advocate renegotiation of withdrawal of those treaties.
Quote
Macron's economic stance is meaningless - the space for operation within the mainstream is basically between third way, 90s centre left and 2010s austerity centre right. There are differences but they're pretty marginal.
There may very well be less maneuver margin but add in a divisive character such as Jupin and there is even less.
QuoteI'm glad to see you agree with Mélenchon and Zemmour about rules and treaties having (too?) much power.
Quote
It's not too much necessarily - this is partly why I liked Macron to begin with. My view is that the Eurozone needs to take the plunge and start having democratically decision makers at a European level - especially if it moves into doing more policies like the coronavirus recovery fund (which is very good). That needs to be wrestled from the hands of technocrats and be a subject of debate, discussion and difference within Europe.
Probably the case, but Jupin being an archetypal technocrat is the worst possible candidate for that kind of reforms.
Quote
Absent that, especially if there's no follow up to the recovery fund, then I think Europe just rolls on with a half complete union until the next crisis and we just keep repeating that cycle (I think the risk of the FDP being in a coalition in Germany and taking the Finance Ministry, aligning more with the Netherlands/Austria etc bloc is a real worry because I think it'd have really negative long-term consequences).
Having said that I think the EU is operating at the edge of the treaties right now and for the last few years and I think the treaties probably need to be re-opened to legitimise anything else. My hope would be that's in the direction of more integration and more Europe, not less.
Not arguing with this part. I don't see Macron being part of the solution, just more of the same with an already obsolete rebranding of the old PS alliance plus some turncoat centrists. A nightmarish version of Giscard's dreams :(. Jupin (colloquial version of Jupiter) is just a young Juppé.
Quote from: Duque de Bragança on September 26, 2021, 08:22:31 AM
Sorry, not good enough.
What? I like memes - see the Brexit thread Labour posts :lol:
QuoteThe leftists still use of far-right is for nazism, they are the one who have not changed. Until then, far-right is too vague and has to be described more in detail.
Okay:
QuoteNot a single small town or little French village is safe from savage bands of Chechens, or Kosovars, or Maghrebians, or Africans who steal, rape, pillage, torture, kill.
[/quote]
QuoteThe "great replacement" is neither a myth nor a conspiracy, but a relentless process.
QuoteThe individualism, born four centuries ago on the borders of the Italian Renissance and German Protestantism has come to the end of its disheveled race: it has transformed our old nations into a society of fearful and capricious individuals who demand from the state the recognitions of their sensibilities and their fragile feelings. On the other hand, Islamic civilisation has gained a foothold on European soil with ever-growing diasporas imposing their mores, laws, imaginations, surnames in the logic of colonisation. [...] they are allied against the same enemy: the French people, their mores, their history, their state, their civility, their civilisation. It's the Nazo-Soviet pact.
And if we must turn back to 80 years to correctly understand what is and isn't far-right, I'd note he has a rich vein of form for defending Vichy ("Vichy protected French Jews and gave foreign Jews" - which is a lie) and, say, defending Papon at length.
If this isn't far-right what is? You know, it's like saying he can't really be far-right because he wears a white and not a black shirt.
QuoteWho's we? Like it not, 1917, 1922 or 1933 will still remain as political references for some time. Some candidates in France even go as far as 1789, with some merit, though their interpretation leaves much to desire.
We is people talking about politics. The past can be a reference point but it's not a trap that we can't escape or an answer. Does left-wing politics in the 2010-20s look like left-wing politics in the 1930s? Obviously not - the nature of the economy is different, climate is an issue now, there's the legacy of sexual, social, cultural liberation. That also applies to the far-right.
QuoteMy point earlier on. Class warfare still exists but not as successful for the proles, divided by Identity Politics.
So I disagree. I don't think class warfare or class politics have been displaced into culture wars and identitiy politics - not least because I think that ignores the service worker/precariat working class.
Rather the lack of class politics/economics being subject to democracy acts as a sort of centrifugal force so it sort of scrambles early post-war style class lines (I think there's something to Piketty on this). So I think the urban and public sector middle class and the service working class/precariat go to the left, while the sort of petty bourgeois and manufacturing (or rural) working class are going to the right.
So I don't think what we are seeing is class politics but on cultural lines (though this is what the right want you to think) of the working class populists on the right v middle class/elites on the liberal left. Rather I think because economics has been removed from politics and is a void the issues of distribution and culture scramble those traditional lines.
QuoteProbably the case, but Jupin being an archetypal technocrat is the worst possible candidate for that kind of reforms.
As I say I'd position Macron as a technocratic populist or populist technocrat.
Quote from: Duque de Bragança on September 26, 2021, 07:52:28 AM
Quote from: viper37 on September 25, 2021, 05:44:10 PM
Quote from: Duque de Bragança on September 25, 2021, 07:31:29 AM
Reactionary is certainly the label he chose. As for racist, for his generation it has a different meaning cf. Colombey-les Deux Églises plutôt que Colombey-les-Deux-Mosquées as said by de Gaulle to justify the independence of Algeria.
somewhere along the way, somebody fucked up nicely! :P
Ask Zemmour who it was. :P
On his book le Suicide français, he more or less says : "le regroupement familial est la revanche des partisans de l'Algérie Française". :lol:
Humor, Zemmour style! :D
Quote from: Sheilbh on September 26, 2021, 10:38:25 AM
Quote from: Duque de Bragança on September 26, 2021, 08:22:31 AM
Sorry, not good enough.
What? I like memes - see the Brexit thread Labour posts :lol:
Not arguing that you don't like memes about Brexit. :P I just find them tiresome after a while in a discussion.
QuoteThe leftists still use of far-right is for nazism, they are the one who have not changed. Until then, far-right is too vague and has to be described more in detail.
Quote
Okay:
QuoteNot a single small town or little French village is safe from savage bands of Chechens, or Kosovars, or Maghrebians, or Africans who steal, rape, pillage, torture, kill.
Made-up quote, a cheap trick often used against him, specially since even the original French is damning enough most of the time. Zemmour, as the polemist is, is not adverse to hyperbole.
The original is, among other things :
Quote"les grandes invasions d'après la chute de Rome" avec les "bandes de Tchétchènes, de Roms, de Kosovars, de Maghrébins, d'Africains, qui dévalisent, violentent ou dépouillent".
https://www.dailymotion.com/embed/video/x1t9spj
(https://www.dailymotion.com/embed/video/x1t9spj)
The communities quoted are overrepresented in French prisons, though ethnic statistics are officially forbidden, it is not big secret. PC point to Zemmour for speaking or Roma (Roma) instead of Gypsies (gitans) or Tziganes.
So if you go by Zemmour quotes, I will discuss only the original, in context. So find them, and tell me what you understood.
Not whatever biased translation, explanation or comment found in whatever non fact-checking outlet.
Besides, nazis and fascists, the far-right for leftists (Salazar, Dolfuss and Metaxas existed too!), were quite ok with Islam so that's a big no-no for Zemmour. Historically, in France at least, the left was not too big on immigration, often opposing it, namely on the communist side. (cf. Mélenchon and his racist ravings on Central and Eastern Europeans, white people and blond people etc.). At least, Marchais, former PCF leader, the last gaullist according to Zemmour (that's quite controversial btw) declared himself opposed to all immigration as late as in the early '80s which meant no space for FN.
Even the so-called fact-checkers of l'Immonde (starting from a Flabby gaffe of confusion :D) are in great trouble when reminded of that fact.
https://www.lemonde.fr/les-decodeurs/article/2015/04/20/le-fn-dit-il-la-meme-chose-que-les-communistes-il-y-a-trente-ans_4619300_4355770.html (https://www.lemonde.fr/les-decodeurs/article/2015/04/20/le-fn-dit-il-la-meme-chose-que-les-communistes-il-y-a-trente-ans_4619300_4355770.html)
They can only produce some cop-out with "two different eras, hard to compare". (1981 vs 2011).
Link and quotes for Georges Marchais fans:
Quote3. « L'immigration nuit aux travailleurs » : le discours de Marchais
Plus largement, le discours que porte Georges Marchais, premier secrétaire et candidat, réclame une limitation de l'immigration, perçue comme nuisible aux droits et aux conditions des travailleurs.
« En raison de la présence en France de près de quatre millions et demi de travailleurs immigrés et de membres de leurs familles, la poursuite de l'immigration pose aujourd'hui de graves problèmes. Il faut stopper l'immigration officielle et clandestine », déclarait ainsi Georges Marchais, le 6 janvier 1981.
Cette vision de l'immigration reste radicale : elle rend responsables du chômage les travailleurs immigrés.
(http://xn--lorsdelacampagneprsidentiellede1981,georgesmarchaiscritunelonguelettreaurecteurdelamosquedeparis-sli7a1b.xn--ilydtaillelapositiondescommunistessurl&-epd#039;immigration,quin'estpassansrappelerundiscoursqu'ontrouveaujourd'huiauFNoudansunepartiedel'UMP) :
« Il faut résoudre d'importants problèmes posés dans la vie locale française par l'immigration [...] se trouvent entassés dans ce qu'il faut bien appeler des ghettos, des travailleurs et des familles aux traditions, aux langues, aux façons de vivre différentes. Cela crée des tensions, et parfois des heurts entre immigrés des divers pays. Cela rend difficiles leurs relations avec les Français. Quand la concentration devient très importante [...], la crise du logement s'aggrave ; les HLM font cruellement défaut et de nombreuses familles françaises ne peuvent y accéder. Les charges d'aide sociale nécessaire pour les familles immigrées plongées dans la misère deviennent insupportables pour les budgets des communes peuplées d'ouvriers et d'employés. L'enseignement est incapable de faire face... »
January 1981 "Il faut stopper l'immigraition officielle et clandestine" (worse or stronger than Zemmour)
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BIy5qIgTg9g (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BIy5qIgTg9g)
February 1981 "Nous posons le problème de l'immigration
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sCfVkATt1vs (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sCfVkATt1vs)
Unlike Mélenchon however, Marchais avoided outright racism.
QuoteThe "great replacement" is neither a myth nor a conspiracy, but a relentless process.
Ever heard of Colombey-les Deux Églises vs Colombey les-Deux-Mosquées?
https://www.liberation.fr/tribune/1999/06/18/de-de-gaulle-a-de-gaulle_275833/ (https://www.liberation.fr/tribune/1999/06/18/de-de-gaulle-a-de-gaulle_275833/)
QuoteEst-on sûr, d'ailleurs, que son engagement fasse insulte à la mémoire du Général? A quelques années de distance, on peut constater de troublantes convergences entre certaines des positions de De Gaulle et celles de Le Pen. Sans même parler de l'Europe: en ce qui concerne l'immigration maghrébine, par exemple.
C'est là l'un des thèmes majeurs de Le Pen. Mais que disait donc de Gaulle à Alain Peyrefitte? «Les musulmans, vous êtes allé les voir, vous les avez regardés, avec leurs turbans et leurs djellabas? Si nous faisions de l'intégration ["], mon village ne s'appellerait plus Colombey-les-Deux-Eglises, mais Colombey-les-Deux-Mosquées"» (C'était de Gaulle, 1994). Cette crainte est sans doute l'une des explications de sa politique algérienne; il jugeait les Algériens musulmans inassimilables et il n'entendait pas que l'Algérie française conduise un jour à une France algérienne avec turbans, babouches et mosquées. Elle est aussi celle de Le Pen (qui fut autrefois pour l'Algérie française"), dont le discours fait écho aux propos du Général, qui disait encore à Alain Peyrefitte en 1963: «Nous ne devons pas nous laisser envahir par la main-d'oeuvre algérienne, qu'elle se fasse passer ou non pour des harkis! Si nous n'y prenons garde, tous les Algériens viendraient s'installer en France!"»
So de Gaulle far-right for you as well, as the leftists of yore? I even recall a history teacher describing him as so, at least in his tough IVth Republic years "traversée du désert".
His view on the matter are explained in his Suicide français book by quoting Tahar ben Jelloun, hardly a far-rightist, who spoke of "recomposition du paysage humain". A poetic explanation according to Zemmour who emphasized the local aspect.
QuoteThe individualism, born four centuries ago on the borders of the Italian Renissance and German Protestantism has come to the end of its disheveled race: it has transformed our old nations into a society of fearful and capricious individuals who demand from the state the recognitions of their sensibilities and their fragile feelings. On the other hand, Islamic civilisation has gained a foothold on European soil with ever-growing diasporas imposing their mores, laws, imaginations, surnames in the logic of colonisation. [...] they are allied against the same enemy: the French people, their mores, their history, their state, their civility, their civilisation. It's the Nazo-Soviet pact.
Being a North African Berber by origin, Zemmour has understandably a quite dim view of Islam.
Still, I would like the original French quote, I don't trust too much translations (as a translator :D) on controversial topics, unless I can do or check them. :P
Quote
And if we must turn back to 80 years to correctly understand what is and isn't far-right, I'd note he has a rich vein of form for defending Vichy ("Vichy protected French Jews and gave foreign Jews" - which is a lie) and, say, defending Papon at length.
Zemmour pointed out that 75 % of Jews in France survived, some helped by Vichy low-ranking officials. That's a quite high survival rate but Zemmour explains it as Vichy deliberately sacrificing foreign Jews in the beginning, and low-ranking officials disagreeing with Vichy big brass and not doing their part.
Lots of Jews were in North Africa, as in Zemmour's family, but they would have been harder to deport, for obvious logistical reasons.
As for Papon, you are missing his part during the Algerian War, more relevant to Zemmour and FN/RN people today.
Quote
If this isn't far-right what is? You know, it's like saying he can't really be far-right because he wears a white and not a black shirt.
See? Dog whistling politics. Black-shirt = Fascism. You have improved a bit though going from brown shirts to black shirts. :P
Why not Salazar (inspirer in part of Pétain), Dolfuss or Metaxas? Reactionary as well.
QuoteWho's we? Like it not, 1917, 1922 or 1933 will still remain as political references for some time. Some candidates in France even go as far as 1789, with some merit, though their interpretation leaves much to desire.
Quote
We is people talking about politics. The past can be a reference point but it's not a trap that we can't escape or an answer. Does left-wing politics in the 2010-20s look like left-wing politics in the 1930s? Obviously not - the nature of the economy is different, climate is an issue now, there's the legacy of sexual, social, cultural liberation. That also applies to the far-right.
Unfortunately, left-wings politics are very different from the 1930s, that's one of the reasons left-wing politics have lost the working class around here.
Unfortunately, left-wings politics are trapped in their reference point.
Circumstances obviously change, but well-connected business macronistes need their cheap labour or votes.
QuoteMy point earlier on. Class warfare still exists but not as successful for the proles, divided by Identity Politics.
So I disagree. I don't think class warfare or class politics have been displaced into culture wars and identitiy politics - not least because I think that ignores the service worker/precariat working class.
Rather the lack of class politics/economics being subject to democracy acts as a sort of centrifugal force so it sort of scrambles early post-war style class lines (I think there's something to Piketty on this). So I think the urban and public sector middle class and the service working class/precariat go to the left, while the sort of petty bourgeois and manufacturing (or rural) working class are going to the right.
[/quote]
I was about to agree but public sector middle class includes police, gendarmerie, military, prison guard and they are not know for their left-wing votes. ;)
Not displaced ,but the culture wars and identity politics are a strong enough diversion to put class warfare into the background. The once red suburbs of Paris and other big cities have no longer any class conscience and most don't even know what class warfare is.
Quote
So I don't think what we are seeing is class politics but on cultural lines (though this is what the right want you to think) of the working class populists on the right v middle class/elites on the liberal left. Rather I think because economics has been removed from politics and is a void the issues of distribution and culture scramble those traditional lines.
Right or far-right? Zemmour's anti-immigration gaullo-bonapartism?
QuoteProbably the case, but Jupin being an archetypal technocrat is the worst possible candidate for that kind of reforms.
Quote
As I say I'd position Macron as a technocratic populist or populist technocrat.
You are the only one seeing Macron as a populist, even if "technocratic populist" (great de facto oxymoron).
We'll have to disagree on this one, but know that most Jupin's fans will strongly object to that label, with merit.
Quote from: Duque de Bragança on September 26, 2021, 01:51:29 PMNot arguing that you don't like memes about Brexit. :P I just find them tiresome after a while in a discussion.
I've used one. Once :P
QuoteMade-up quote, a cheap trick often used against him, specially since even the original French is damning enough most of the time. Zemmour, as the polemist is, is not adverse to hyperbole.
The original is, among other things :
Quote"les grandes invasions d'après la chute de Rome" avec les "bandes de Tchétchènes, de Roms, de Kosovars, de Maghrébins, d'Africains, qui dévalisent, violentent ou dépouillent".
[...]
The communities quoted are overrepresented in French prisons, though ethnic statistics are officially forbidden, it is not big secret. PC point to Zemmour for speaking or Roma (Roma) instead of Gypsies (gitans) or Tziganes.
So if you go by Zemmour quotes, I will discuss only the original, in context. So find them, and tell me what you understood.
Not whatever biased translation, explanation or comment found in whatever non fact-checking outlet.
It's from his latest book:
(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/E_1h0tUUYAA6UK3?format=jpg&name=small)
QuoteBesides, nazis and fascists, the far-right for leftists (Salazar, Dolfuss and Metaxas existed too!), were quite ok with Islam so that's a big no-no for Zemmour. Historically, in France at least, the left was not too big on immigration, often opposing it, namely on the communist side. (cf. Mélenchon and his racist ravings on Central and Eastern Europeans, white people and blond people etc.). At least, Marchais, former PCF leader, the last gaullist according to Zemmour (that's quite controversial btw) declared himself opposed to all immigration as late as in the early '80s which meant no space for FN.
Again I just don't see the relevance of any of this.
QuoteEver heard of Colombey-les Deux Églises vs Colombey les-Deux-Mosquées?
Again? What's the relevance. Why does this matter to whether Zemmour is far-right or the election in 2021? To go a little bit Macron we're in ni les annees 30 ni les annees 60.
QuoteBeing a North African Berber by origin, Zemmour has understandably a quite dim view of Islam.
Still, I would like the original French quote, I don't trust too much translations (as a translator :D) on controversial topics, unless I can do or check them. :P
(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/E_1jWQ4UcAcn-6a?format=jpg&name=small)
QuoteZemmour pointed out that 75 % of Jews in France survived, some helped by Vichy low-ranking officials. That's a quite high survival rate but Zemmour explains it as Vichy deliberately sacrificing foreign Jews in the beginning, and low-ranking officials disagreeing with Vichy big brass and not doing their part.
Lots of Jews were in North Africa, as in Zemmour's family, but they would have been harder to deport, for obvious logistical reasons.
As for Papon, you are missing his part during the Algerian War, more relevant to Zemmour and FN/RN people today.
On Papon - I'm not missing that and I think it is striking given that we're just a few weeks from the 60th anniversary.
Again the section of his latest book:
(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/E_4wuTCVUAACDE4?format=jpg&name=small)
QuoteSee? Dog whistling politics. Black-shirt = Fascism. You have improved a bit though going from brown shirts to black shirts. :P
Why not Salazar (inspirer in part of Pétain), Dolfuss or Metaxas? Reactionary as well.
My point was that you're pettifogging over minor details and historic minutiae about who is or isn't far-right to whittle the term out of existence.
I could do that with a joke about shirts - my repertoire of Dolfuss jokes is less developed :P
Quote
You are the only one seeing Macron as a populist, even if "technocratic populist" (great de facto oxymoron).
We'll have to disagree on this one, but know that most Jupin's fans will strongly object to that label, with merit.
I'm not - I'm literally and shameleslly stealing the ideas of Chris Bicketeron and Carol Accetti in their book "Technopopulism: The New Logic of Democratic Politics" - useful summary here:
https://www.queens.cam.ac.uk/sites/www.queens.cam.ac.uk/files/downloads/202043_032_chris_bickerton_final_published_version.pdf
Zemmour's books, as other books, need to be read in fully, not just putting some quotes chosen for scoring points. No question about your googling skills in finding some Zemmour quotes but you did not read any of his books.
If I want to read or hear any selective quoting, most mainstream French media will be enough. Means only le Figaro and the odd voice (Jean-François Kahn one no link with DSK) will try to not condemn automatically.
Even so, the English translation does not match the French original. The part about "équipée sauvage", an old-school reference typical of Zemmour think of Brando's the Wild One, so not exactly a common occurence, is strangely missing, plus the typical confusion of de and des by the English. He points at gangs of the above mentioned "communities" rather than all of them (I'm disappointed I have seen more hyperbolic stuff by Zemmour).
Back to topic, like it or not, those gans exist.
Chechens were recently news when fighting between gangs of Chechens and North Africans broke up in a provincial town. Not good enough for Zemmour I guess.
Point about élucubrations "genres" or "racisées" is spot on but you do not mention, it for some reason. Not as hyperbolic? Too partial?
Description of Papon by Zemmour is not really sympathetic cf. antipathique (antonym) et revêche. The reminder of of the Armistice article 3 is interesting, if true, but I do not recall it being challenged.
Little known legalese detail, such as the full constituting powers (constituante for a new Constitution) give to Pétain, not full powers.
Nice potshot at the Klarsfelds though, typical Zemmour. :D
Zemmour's position on the role of French police was more or less the one of Mitterrand in his presidential years (not pro-Pétain years). The left carefully avoided the topic. Only Chirac, the one who got Mitterrand elected changed the stance.
I'll answer with more detail when/if I read it but I would avoid the ni ni argument of Macron, that rings too close to a reference to Le Pen ni gauche, ni droite français. :secret:
In the meantime, I will gladly accept jokes about Salazar, Metaxas or even Greek colonels, in desperation, or Schusnigg. ;)
Pray (not Jupiter obviously) that it ends up soon in a public library. Earlier ones did, even if they were hard to borrow given the hype and controversy around them. Zemmour's books don't show up in pocket editions so second-hand only gets to be an option after a few years. ;)
Description of Papon by Zemmour is not really sympathetic, "antipathique (antonyme) et revêche".
If you don't see the relevance of proto-grand remplacement talk by de Gaulle, not one usually described as far-right abroad (unlike leftists in France in the past) there is not much too discuss.
Same for Salazar and Pétain, not historic minutiæ cf. the famous Pétain quote "Puisque j'ai les idées de Salazar et le costume de Carmona"...
Both inspired by Maurras, now that' a far-right link that makes more sense but still not national-socialiste or even fascist.
As for the British link, having populist and technocratic for Macron shows how completely irrelevant is that writer's analysis to France.
Man, the far-right really uses the same tricks everywhere.
"It's quoted out of context" ; "It's just a reaction against PCness"; "Please perform a finely-tuned, in-detail exegesis of this guy's oeuvre/discourses/radio show before you dare call him a racist"; "He's not a racist - racists just really like him for some weird reason".
Well, there are good people on both sides of this.
:yawn:
Quote from: PDH on September 27, 2021, 10:11:40 AM
Well, there are good people on both sides of this.
Too late, he has already been compared to Trump in France. Apples and oranges if you ask me. A right-wing intellectual, even if polemist and gaulle-bonapartist sovereignist vs a billionaire who is not known to for his intellectual consistency ahem, if not outright uncultured.
Though comparing him to Trump is more insulting for his intelligence and culture than Salazar, Metaxas or Dolfuss, which is the point obviously.
Trump didn't invent the line, and it has been used for a long time by racists to minimize their actions. I am more comparing followers to followers.
Quote from: PDH on September 27, 2021, 10:21:42 AM
Trump didn't invent the line, and it has been used for a long time by racists to minimize their actions. I am more comparing followers to followers.
Still apples and oranges, by comparing followers to followers. Zemmour has a devoted base avidly reading his books (non digital they are old-school), far from the people attracted by an ignoramus made famous again by a crappy real tv show.
Quote from: Duque de Bragança on September 27, 2021, 10:24:54 AM
Quote from: PDH on September 27, 2021, 10:21:42 AM
Trump didn't invent the line, and it has been used for a long time by racists to minimize their actions. I am more comparing followers to followers.
Still apples and oranges, by comparing followers to followers. Zemmour has a devoted base avidly reading his books (non digital they are old-school), far from the people attracted by an ignoramus made famous again by a crappy real tv show.
Apples and oranges are often not as far apart as people think.
Quote from: PDH on September 27, 2021, 10:35:41 AM
Quote from: Duque de Bragança on September 27, 2021, 10:24:54 AM
Quote from: PDH on September 27, 2021, 10:21:42 AM
Trump didn't invent the line, and it has been used for a long time by racists to minimize their actions. I am more comparing followers to followers.
Still apples and oranges, by comparing followers to followers. Zemmour has a devoted base avidly reading his books (non digital they are old-school), far from the people attracted by an ignoramus made famous again by a crappy real tv show.
Apples and oranges are often not as far apart as people think.
You are mixing up apples and oranges with lemons and oranges.
I am more the opera bouffe type than the serious arguer. Let just say that the defense of "He/she/they" is/are intellectuals is well and good, but base motives often do lurk beneath.
I guess as long as their is a steady flow from the eclair mines I will not argue too much.
Quote from: PDH on September 27, 2021, 10:50:27 AM
I am more the opera bouffe type than the serious arguer. Let just say that the defense of "He/she/they" is/are intellectuals is well and good, but base motives often do lurk beneath.
I guess as long as their is a steady flow from the eclair mines I will not argue too much.
Half agreement, half disagreement?
That's nice but this reminds me that my local favorite pastry shop for éclairs au chocolat closed down (boss retired) and I have not yet found a real replacement.
Quote from: Oexmelin on September 27, 2021, 09:43:54 AM
Man, the far-right really uses the same tricks everywhere.
"It's quoted out of context" ; "It's just a reaction against PCness"; "Please perform a finely-tuned, in-detail exegesis of this guy's oeuvre/discourses/radio show before you dare call him a racist"; "He's not a racist - racists just really like him for some weird reason".
In the meantime, one apple of the post-modern leftist's eye was showing how there are many good people on both sides, though Zemmour would disagree with above mentioned statement.
https://www.lefigaro.fr/faits-divers/eric-zemmour-menace-de-mort-en-pleine-rue-a-paris-20210927 (https://www.lefigaro.fr/faits-divers/eric-zemmour-menace-de-mort-en-pleine-rue-a-paris-20210927)
Complete with the racism accusation, from pros at racism, up to hate-motivated murders, a classic for non-assimilated banlieue-like scum. Bonus: some not exactly halal swearing (sur le Coran d'la Mecque).
Quote«Sur le Coran de la Mecque je vais te fumer», a déclaré un passant au polémiste.
Eric Zemmour a une nouvelle fois fait l'objet d'une agression. Ce lundi 27 septembre en début d'après-midi, le journaliste a été pris pour cible, boulevard de Clichy, dans le XVIIIe arrondissement de Paris, a indiqué au Figaro l'entourage d'Eric Zemmour, confirmant une information d'Europe 1.
Il a été reconnu par un homme qui a commencé à l'insulter, lui hurlant «sur le Coran de la Mecque je vais te fumer». Le policier de la SDLP [service de la protection, ndlr] s'est alors interposé, mais l'individu «s'est excité», criant notamment «putain de raciste de merde», nous indique-t-on.
Eric Zemmour et le policier se sont alors dirigés vers le véhicule du journaliste afin de se mettre en sécurité. Une fois les deux hommes à l'intérieur de l'habitacle, la voiture a démarré et l'individu a «tapé sur le capot de la voiture».
Sur Twitter, Eric Zemmour a déploré cette agression, «le quotidien de tant de Français» selon lui. Le député des Alpes-Maritimes et candidat à la primaire de la droite Éric Ciotti a également réagi sur le réseau social, assurant apporter son «soutien» à Eric Zemmour. «Aucune personnalité engagée dans la vie politique ne peut être menacée pour ses idées», a-t-il ajouté.
Boulevard de Clichy ends near rue des Martys. An omen for Zemmour? :hmm: Not far from the rue Saint-Just, ending in a dead end, close to the Batignolles cemetery (XVII district adjoining XVIII district).
Not too serious of an accident yet. Would get him a few votes if closer to the election, were he a candidate.
Quote from: PDH on September 27, 2021, 10:11:40 AM
Well, there are good people on both sides of this.
And in terms of striking parallels with Zemmour is he has spoken before about running in Les Republicains' primary - and their president, Christian Jacob, has said that Zemmour is neither racist nor extreme right. So....:hmm:
I think Bertrand has said he'll run regardless and won't participate in any primary and I still think he's the best hope of the centre-right in France, but it may be that the rest of the centre-right decide they're not super interested in the "centre" bit of that anymore.
QuoteMan, the far-right really uses the same tricks everywhere.
"It's quoted out of context" ; "It's just a reaction against PCness"; "Please perform a finely-tuned, in-detail exegesis of this guy's oeuvre/discourses/radio show before you dare call him a racist"; "He's not a racist - racists just really like him for some weird reason".
Yes.
Quote from: Sheilbh on September 27, 2021, 11:09:54 AM
Quote from: PDH on September 27, 2021, 10:11:40 AM
Well, there are good people on both sides of this.
And in terms of striking parallels with Zemmour is he has spoken before about running in Les Republicains' primary - and their president, Christian Jacob, has said that Zemmour is neither racist nor extreme right. So....:hmm:
I think Bertrand has said he'll run regardless and won't participate in any primary and I still think he's the best hope of the centre-right in France, but it may be that the rest of the centre-right decide they're not super interested in the "centre" bit of that anymore.
And in terms of striking apples and oranges, Les Républicains and the Republican party.
If they were really interested by the centre, most of them would not by Macron's rump party.
QuoteMan, the far-right really uses the same tricks everywhere.
Quote
"It's quoted out of context" ; "It's just a reaction against PCness"; "Please perform a finely-tuned, in-detail exegesis of this guy's oeuvre/discourses/radio show before you dare call him a racist"; "He's not a racist - racists just really like him for some weird reason".
Quote
Yes.
No.
Just ask Soral what he thinks of Zemmour. :P Hint, he does not like him, there is even a bit of jealousy.
You can add Dieudonné to the list.
Some more finely-tuned, in-detail-exegegis for you, hopefully not too complex for you:
Right after he restated his assimilationist view, hardly far-right per se (originally left-wing).
QuoteJe tends la main aux musulmans. Beaucoup d'entre eux, qui ont fui les pays musulmans ne veulent pas islamiser la France mais vivre à la française. Nous devons le leur permettre.
https://twitter.com/i/status/1442417904654319619 (https://twitter.com/i/status/1442417904654319619)
https://twitter.com/ZemmourEric/status/1442046812827774979/photo/1 (https://twitter.com/ZemmourEric/status/1442046812827774979/photo/1)
QuoteJe fais le distinguo entre l'islam et les musulmans. Les musulmans peuvent faire leur la culture française s'ils le souhaitent, comme je l'ai fait moi-même.
Quote from: Duque de Bragança on September 27, 2021, 10:53:54 AM
That's nice but this reminds me that my local favorite pastry shop for éclairs au chocolat closed down (boss retired) and I have not yet found a real replacement.
So you're saying there is nothing left to live for?
Quote from: PDH on September 27, 2021, 02:04:03 PM
Quote from: Duque de Bragança on September 27, 2021, 10:53:54 AM
That's nice but this reminds me that my local favorite pastry shop for éclairs au chocolat closed down (boss retired) and I have not yet found a real replacement.
So you're saying there is nothing left to live for?
Luckily, I still have a good local address for
pains aux chocolat, so not all is lost.
Christ, it's like visiting Arkansas. I only understand about half of what is being said it's mostly bigotry apologetics.
Quote from: Duque de Bragança on September 27, 2021, 11:22:09 AM
Quote from: Sheilbh on September 27, 2021, 11:09:54 AM
Quote from: PDH on September 27, 2021, 10:11:40 AM
Well, there are good people on both sides of this.
And in terms of striking parallels with Zemmour is he has spoken before about running in Les Republicains' primary - and their president, Christian Jacob, has said that Zemmour is neither racist nor extreme right. So....:hmm:
I think Bertrand has said he'll run regardless and won't participate in any primary and I still think he's the best hope of the centre-right in France, but it may be that the rest of the centre-right decide they're not super interested in the "centre" bit of that anymore.
And in terms of striking apples and oranges, Les Républicains and the Republican party.
If they were really interested by the centre, most of them would not by Macron's rump party.
QuoteMan, the far-right really uses the same tricks everywhere.
Quote
"It's quoted out of context" ; "It's just a reaction against PCness"; "Please perform a finely-tuned, in-detail exegesis of this guy's oeuvre/discourses/radio show before you dare call him a racist"; "He's not a racist - racists just really like him for some weird reason".
Quote
Yes.
No.
Just ask Soral what he thinks of Zemmour. :P Hint, he does not like him, there is even a bit of jealousy.
You can add Dieudonné to the list.
Some more finely-tuned, in-detail-exegegis for you, hopefully not too complex for you:
Right after he restated his assimilationist view, hardly far-right per se (originally left-wing).
QuoteJe tends la main aux musulmans. Beaucoup d'entre eux, qui ont fui les pays musulmans ne veulent pas islamiser la France mais vivre à la française. Nous devons le leur permettre.
https://twitter.com/i/status/1442417904654319619 (https://twitter.com/i/status/1442417904654319619)
https://twitter.com/ZemmourEric/status/1442046812827774979/photo/1 (https://twitter.com/ZemmourEric/status/1442046812827774979/photo/1)
QuoteJe fais le distinguo entre l'islam et les musulmans. Les musulmans peuvent faire leur la culture française s'ils le souhaitent, comme je l'ai fait moi-même.
You know exactly who is attracted to Zemmour. He knows it too, and has been veering more and more towards the unacceptable as the years go by and he tried to stay relevant.
A un moment donné, you have to stop analyzing the fine points of his discourse and look at who his supporters are.
He'll get under 5% if he runs, because try as you might to rationalize it, France is not Boujadiste anymore, there is no great replacement coming, and Zemmour is just another short man trying to compensate.
Quote from: Zoupa on September 27, 2021, 08:21:32 PM
You know exactly who is attracted to Zemmour. He knows it too, and has been veering more and more towards the unacceptable as the years go by and he tried to stay relevant.
A un moment donné, you have to stop analyzing the fine points of his discourse and look at who his supporters are.
Much of the same electorate as the RN, so a lot of proles who in the old days would have voted for the PCF, who don't dig multi-culturalism since they see its failures every day, with perhaps more ultra-conservative bourgeois? Lots of overlap, but he seems to attract other people as well.
Another factor would be a LR implosion with a typical for them leader ego war (la Droite la plus bête du monde).
I believe he could have a broader appeal than Marine, but then so could Marine's niece Marion, but for now Marine is still ahead, dream scenario for Jupin.
Zemmour is more than ever relevant, like it or not. He is more than just another Figaro journo these days. The champagne leftist who invited him regularly in his show to get better ratings regrets doing so in the past since he gave him a lot of exposition 15 years ago. The pro-Macron media still tries to depict as more of a danger to the conservatives but this is not convincing since Macron needs a candidate such as Marine to be elected in the run-off.
Quote
He'll get under 5% if he runs, because try as you might to rationalize it, France is not Boujadiste anymore, there is no great replacement coming, and Zemmour is just another short man trying to compensate.
That may be so, but for now he is credited with 10-11 %, if he runs that is, as you point out. He also could be a semi-flop à la Chevènement (the third man) with barely more than 5 %, but enough to pay back the campaign.
https://www.lefigaro.fr/politique/presidentielle-macron-et-le-pen-en-tete-zemmour-a-11-selon-un-sondage-20210921 (https://www.lefigaro.fr/politique/presidentielle-macron-et-le-pen-en-tete-zemmour-a-11-selon-un-sondage-20210921)
Poujadiste is actually much closer to what Zemmour is. I'll grant you that, specially since the term has a broader meaning than the original movement of shopkeepers complaining about high taxes. Reactionary (a label he claims) and ultra-conservative, is closer to reality.
As for another short man trying to compensate that's Flanby in a nutshell, but that's not exactly relevant to this discussion.
So the campaign for 2022 seems to have started, with Macron promising a lot of money and finding a way to have attacks bounce off him:
https://twitter.com/i/status/1442433246415970304 (https://twitter.com/i/status/1442433246415970304)
Being such a divisive figure, he will certainly need it.
https://www.lefigaro.fr/politique/un-oeuf-lance-sur-emmanuel-macron-lors-de-son-deplacement-a-lyon-20210927 (https://www.lefigaro.fr/politique/un-oeuf-lance-sur-emmanuel-macron-lors-de-son-deplacement-a-lyon-20210927)
"How do I become a divisive figure in France?"
"Get elected."
Well, the run-off is more about voting against than for (first round for the latter), so it's not too badly said.
Still, Macron beat impopularity records held by Chirac or Flanby, not to mention Sarkozy.
Quote from: Tyr on September 23, 2021, 04:02:27 PM
I've recently read about the French regions. It's fascinating France was able to get this logical reform through (the UK needs it too. And failed largely.).
Though one thing I'm really curious about is the generally rather awful naming - nouvelle aquitaine for instance... How was this OK where aquitaine wasn't?
Forgot this one. It's Flanby and administrative jargon. Awful.
Official reason in the beginning: regions are too small, we need bigger ones, even if it does not make historical sense, for economical reasons.
Since losing the regional capital means losing civil servant jobs, this is even more complex and costly. So Flanby...
As for new Aquitaine, it goes well beyond the historical Aquitaine so they had to come up with something new.
Less charitable souls would say it's motivated by the technocratic school ENA Voltaire 1981 class to design a region for their political needs.
Quote from: Zoupa on September 27, 2021, 08:21:32 PM
He'll get under 5% if he runs, because try as you might to rationalize it, France is not Boujadiste anymore, there is no great replacement coming, and Zemmour is just another short man trying to compensate.
He is good at this and I think it's possible he could overtake Le Pen as the main candidate of the far-right:
(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FAY5oloUYAEzXte?format=png&name=small)
As ever, thrilled at the French left's love of running 7-10 candidates for 30% of the vote in the first round :bleeding: <_<
Edit: But I think it's basically time to take Zemmour seriously.
Xavier Bertrand is still the best candidate of LR. Nothing against Pécresse, at a region level she is always better than PS, whatever leftie candidate, but she would score even less.
Sheilbh, before you ask, Michel Barnier is not a serious contendant for candidate status. :P
Same goes for Eric Ciotti or Philippe Juvin (total unknown).
Decision will be announced soon in the October 13th LR congress. No primary this time.
Dupont-Aignan has tried to ride the anti-pass wave in order to keep existing politically but that does not seem to make much good.
Quote from: Sheilbh on September 30, 2021, 02:42:56 PM
As ever, thrilled at the French left's love of running 7-10 candidates for 30% of the vote in the first round :bleeding: <_<
Poll does not show how many trots will be running this time. :thumbsdown:
The Greens had a tight primary election but the radical eco-feminist islamo-leftist nutcase lost by 49% to 51%. Seems she wants to condition her support to the winner, Jadot, somewhat more moderate, and used to crazies. His number 2 for the European elections, Rivasi, is an anti-vaxxer, known for trying to organise screenings, as European MP, of Vaxxed a « documentary » by the infamous Andrew Wakefield.
Obviously she's the devil. But has le pen done something lately to make people aware of this?
Quote from: Tyr on September 30, 2021, 06:03:20 PM
Obviously she's the devil. But has le pen done something lately to make people aware of this?
Isn't it just that a different flavour of nationalist populist is eating some of her lunch?
Quote from: Jacob on September 30, 2021, 06:56:11 PM
Isn't it just that a different flavour of nationalist populist is eating some of her lunch?
Yeah - Le Pen has tried to de-toxify her brand and that of RN. I thought that Zemmour might serve as almost helping that because if he was running Le Pen would seem like a more mainstream candidate.
Turns out I was probably worried about the wrong thing and she might actually just be replaced (a great replacement perhaps) as the main candidate of the far-right. And he might be a more successful, 21st century candidate - unlike Le Pen he hasn't come from a sort of political movement (and family), but from the media. Rather he's a prominent TV pundit and writer - a little bit of a French Tucker Carlson.
https://www.france24.com/en/france/20211003-controversial-french-tycoon-and-former-minister-bernard-tapie-dies-at-78 (https://www.france24.com/en/france/20211003-controversial-french-tycoon-and-former-minister-bernard-tapie-dies-at-78)
QuoteFrench business magnate and former politician Bernard Tapie, whose larger-than-life career was marked by a series of high-profile legal setbacks, has died at the age of 78 after a four-year battle with cancer, his family announced on Sunday.
"Dominique Tapie and his family have the immense sadness to announce the death of her husband and their father, Bernard Tapie, this Sunday," said a statement sent to La Provence newspaper in Marseille, in which Tapie was a majority stakeholder.
Tapie, whose business interests included a stake in sportswear company Adidas, had been suffering from stomach cancer.
He was a former president of the Olympique de Marseille football club, leading it to the Champions League title in 1993. He was later sent to prison for corruption in a match-fixing scandal in the French first division.
"Olympique de Marseille learned with deep sadness of the passing of Bernard Tapie. He will leave a great void in the hearts of the Marseillais and will forever remain in the legend of the club," the club said in a statement.
French President Emmanuel Macron and first lady Brigitte released a statement calling the colourful Tapie a "gilded legend" who was nevertheless beset by the many "shadows" of his legal sagas. "The man who had enough fighting spirit to move mountains and take down the moon never laid down arms, fighting cancer until its last moments," the statement said, adding that Tapie's brand of "ambition, energy and enthusiasm" had inspired "generations of French people".
Prime Minister Jean Castex also paid tribute to Tapie, who had been a government minister in the 1990s, describing him as a "fighter".
One of Tapie's sons marked his death with an Instagram post saying, "Goodbye, my Phoenix".
"He left peacefully, surrounded by his wife, his children and grandchildren, who were at his bedside," the statement said, adding that he wished to be buried in Marseille, "the city of his heart", Stéphane Tapie wrote.
View this post on Instagram
A post shared by Stephane Tapie (@stephanetapie)
Tapie was born in Paris in 1943, the son of a plumber, and pulled himself out of a poor suburban childhood to become one of France's richest men. He also entered politics, becoming urban affairs minister in the Socialist government of François Mitterrand in the 1990s and later an MP in the French and European parliaments.
Tapie started by selling televisions by day in the working-class Belleville quarter of Paris while trying his hand as a crooner by night and as a racecar driver. But he soon ditched these early pursuits and amassed a small empire by the time he was 30 by taking over failing companies, scooping up 50 within a few years, and reselling them for millions.
The permanently tanned tycoon flaunted his newfound wealth, buying a vast Paris townhouse and a string of mansions on the French Riviera as well as a 72-metre (236-foot) yacht.
"If there is one thing I know how to do, it is making dough," he once boasted.
'I am ruined'
Tapie also found time to act, building on the nightclub singing performances of his youth and taking roles that included a police inspector on a popular TV show.
But his empire collapsed spectacularly in the late 1990s, beginning with the football match-fixing trial that saw him serve time in jail.
After a string of scandals and reversals, he was forced to admit in 2015 that, "I am ruined. I haven't got a thing."
Tapie also faced prosecution over his 1990 purchase of the German sports brand Adidas, which he was forced to sell a few years later to state-owned bank Crédit Lyonnais. A 2008 arbitration panel found he had been a victim of fraud because Crédit Lyonnais had undervalued Addidas at the time of the sale and awarded him €404 million in compensation.
The multimillion-euro price tag sent shockwaves through France and was tainted by allegations that the panel that acquitted him had been biased in his favour amid questions over why the dispute was settled by arbitration rather than in court.
Christine Lagarde, who was economy minister at the time, decided not to appeal the ruling – a decision for which she found guilty of negligence in 2016 by a court that rules on cases of ministerial misconduct.
Lagarde's handling of the case sparked suspicion that her former boss Nicolas Sarkozy, whom Tapie had backed for president in 2007, was favourably disposed towards the businessman – allegations Sarkozy has vehemently denied.
In 2017 Tapie was ordered to return the payout he received for the Addidas sale but later won an appeal. He was acquitted of fraud in the case in 2019.
Prosecutors eventually appealed and a new case was opened against Tapie. A court found him guilty of fraud over the arbitration settlement with the bank. An appeals court was due to issue its ruling on Wednesday.
(FRANCE 24 with AFP & REUTERS)
He was recently victim of a violent home invasion which certainly did not help him in his fight against cancer.
As for me,
De mortuis nihil nisi bonum.
From the same pollster - Zemmour now at 18% and has overtaken Le Pen for the first time and moved into second place.
Be interesting to see if that holds - especially if he actually confirms he's actually running. I'm not sure if that's better or worse for Macron than Le Pen, my instinct is better, but who knows.
Zemmour is a better debater than Marine for starters.
The election is far away though, and both Jupin and Zemmour are not yet officially candidates. Many things can change between now and the election.
So Zemmour launches his explicitly "great replacement" theory candidacy (e.g. in his speech launching his campaign "both right and left have lied to you [...] they have hidden the reality of our replacement" and wanting to hand on "our"civilisation as it was passed on by "our" ancestors).
The polling has shifted a bit so it looks less likely he'll get to the second round, but obviously it's early day. But that just increases my biggest worry/initial concern that he won't get to the second round, Le Pen will, but his presence in the campaign will make Le Pen look like a more moderate/mainstream.
Ah yes. That fascist classic of "I'm not right or left. I'm a common sense centrist".
Big fingers crossed he does well enough that neither him nor le pen can get through and there's an actual democratic second round.
Quote from: Tyr on November 30, 2021, 07:36:53 AM
Ah yes. That fascist classic of "I'm not right or left. I'm a common sense centrist".
Also a play on Macron's "neither right nor left" which was itself, perhaps inadvertently an echo, of the understanding of the Vichy regime and its collaborators.
I don't think it's a right or left thing but a populist and a technocratic thing: the old parties have failed, normal politics has failed.
QuoteBig fingers crossed he does well enough that neither him nor le pen can get through and there's an actual democratic second round.
Not sure I totally agree with the thing of if it ends up with results I don't like then it's not really democratic, while things I like are democratic :P
Sadly there is no hope for the left. From the polls I've seen the left is on a solid 25% and would glide into the second round but there's about seven candidates so they won't. Hopefully the more mainstream right will unify - I think their best hope is probably Bertrand but I'm not sure.
Macron at least had a point in claiming the centre though IMO. That is about where liberals float.
It's not democratic when the choice is absolutely awful nonsense or shit. A huge number of people who voted macron last time had little love for him but knew they had to avoid a fascist.
The system is undemocratic to begin with. But it would be far improved with a real second round that gives a choice between 2 politicians who are remotely tolerable.
Quote from: Tyr on November 30, 2021, 07:36:53 AM
Ah yes. That fascist classic of "I'm not right or left. I'm a common sense centrist".
Big fingers crossed he does well enough that neither him nor le pen can get through and there's an actual democratic second round.
I guess Macron is a fascist according to you because he used that line as well. :P
Mind you, Le Pen père used it previously.
PS: Sheilbh said it but Tyr still does not get the reference
Quote from: Sheilbh on November 30, 2021, 07:44:58 AM
Quote from: Tyr on November 30, 2021, 07:36:53 AM
Ah yes. That fascist classic of "I'm not right or left. I'm a common sense centrist".
Also a play on Macron's "neither right nor left" which was itself, perhaps inadvertently an echo, of the understanding of the Vichy regime and its collaborators.
I don't think it's a right or left thing but a populist and a technocratic thing: the old parties have failed, normal politics has failed.
QuoteBig fingers crossed he does well enough that neither him nor le pen can get through and there's an actual democratic second round.
Not sure I totally agree with the thing of if it ends up with results I don't like then it's not really democratic, while things I like are democratic :P
Sadly there is no hope for the left. From the polls I've seen the left is on a solid 25% and would glide into the second round but there's about seven candidates so they won't. Hopefully the more mainstream right will unify - I think their best hope is probably Bertrand but I'm not sure.
Situation should be clearer next week when the LR congress elects their candidate. Bertrand is still favourite and clashed recently with Jupin, which should be good for him.
Nobody noticed Zemmour played a mix of De Gaulle (18th June Call in London) to announce he would be candidate?
I loved Beethoven's 7th Symphony theme he used, reminded me of Zardoz. :lol:
Not to mention the very presidential library behind him. It made me think of Mitterrand's official photo as president, probably not he what intended. :P
Library of Pompidou or de Gaulle more likely.
Yeah he isn't subtle with his references especially de Gaulle's call.
Arguably, well chosen timing, since it was the day of the last LR candidate debate.
Some slight improvement coming from Jupin's rump party. Rather than going for ignorant leftist tropes such as fascist, Bonnel described Zemmour's announcement as [General] Boulanger-style (at best).
Even L'Immonde mentioned it.
Nice. :)
I mean Boulanger and his movement are commonly interpreted as proto-fascist, no?
So I'm not sure it's that great if you really have an issue with Zemmour being called a fascist - although I'm not sure that's how I'd describe him. Far-right for sure but not, I think, particularly fascist.
Quote from: Sheilbh on November 30, 2021, 03:55:17 PM
I mean Boulanger and his movement are commonly interpreted as proto-fascist, no?
So I'm not sure it's that great if you really have an issue with Zemmour being called a fascist - although I'm not sure that's how I'd describe him. Far-right for sure but not, I think, particularly fascist.
Not commonly interpreted, just by Zeev Sternhell, a potent voice, but hardly gospel.
Not to mention most types of Jupin's rump party have hardly any French historical culture so Boulanger is terra incognita for them. Not studied in marketing classes, remember. :D
Zemmour is a gaullo-bonapartist.
De Gaulle was called a fascist in his day by dumb leftists, was not too fond of Islam, cf. Colombey les-Deux-Églises vs Colombey-les-Deux-Mosquées, and justified decolonisation through it. He was a maurrassien in his youth as well.
Far-right is dog whistle politics for fascist these days. I suppose saying Zemmour is
to the right of the right would do the job but I triggered somebody once by saying it, not even about Zemmour, so careful.
Not just him by any stretch.
I think anyone influenced by Marxist interpretation of fascism would probably identify Boulanger as proto-fascist especially around whaat the right reponse should be. That interpretation dates back to at least Trotsky if not before.
Problem is Sternhell has a very loose interpretation of fascism, as marxists.
He has been criticised a lot for his vision of French fascism, by the likes of Raymond Aron or scholars.
Quote from: Sheilbh on November 30, 2021, 07:33:17 AM
So Zemmour launches his explicitly "great replacement" theory candidacy (e.g. in his speech launching his campaign "both right and left have lied to you [...] they have hidden the reality of our replacement" and wanting to hand on "our"civilisation as it was passed on by "our" ancestors).
was he referring to the Celts, the Romans, the Huns, the Franks, the Alemanis, the Goths or the Vikings? It gets a bit confusing who's who in Europe, sometimes... :huh:
I am, however, very glad that France has found its saviour. I had not realized France needed saving, though, but I don't follow their politics as close as I used to. The things you miss when you sneeze... ;)
Quote from: Duque de Bragança on November 30, 2021, 04:15:46 PM
Problem is Sternhell has a very loose interpretation of fascism, as marxists.
Marxists don't have a loose interpretation of fascism - mainly because their take on fascism tends to be very linked to what are the circumstance in which fascism happens rather than what are its features as a political thought. Probably not least because Marxists don't really take fascism seriously as a philosophy (and they shouldn't because it isn't).
QuoteHe has been criticised a lot for his vision of French fascism, by the likes of Raymond Aron or scholars.
That's the nature of being a historian or an academic surely. You have a theory and it's criticised by others.
Quote from: Sheilbh on November 30, 2021, 07:33:17 AM
But that just increases my biggest worry/initial concern that he won't get to the second round, Le Pen will, but his presence in the campaign will make Le Pen look like a more moderate/mainstream.
You're reading this the wrong way. Zemmour will get votes Le Pen never could. He's seen as more moderate than Le Pen.
Okay - that's good to know.
In part I am reacting to the online thing I see a lot about how this is probably a good thing because it weakens the far-right vote, they're divided etc - which I just don't buy. I think they can feed and sustain each other, especially around the sheer apocalypticism of Zemmour's campaign launch, I can see that feeding into Le Pen in the second round.
Of course I could be wrong. They could divide the far-right and we end up with a Macron-Bertrand race at the end which isn't the worst thing in the world.
Quote from: Sheilbh on November 30, 2021, 07:00:52 PM
Quote from: Duque de Bragança on November 30, 2021, 04:15:46 PM
Problem is Sternhell has a very loose interpretation of fascism, as marxists.
Marxists don't have a loose interpretation of fascism - mainly because their take on fascism tends to be very linked to what are the circumstance in which fascism happens rather than what are its features as a political thought. Probably not least because Marxists don't really take fascism seriously as a philosophy (and they shouldn't because it isn't).
Mussolini being a socialist in the beginning, a real one [spoiler]unlike Macron who claimed to be a socialist[/spoiler] tends to cloud their judgement. :P
QuoteHe has been criticised a lot for his vision of French fascism, by the likes of Raymond Aron or scholars.
That's the nature of being a historian or an academic surely. You have a theory and it's criticised by others.
[/quote]
See? Far from commonly interpreted as you said, but pretty much contested.
Quote from: Zoupa on December 01, 2021, 03:25:49 AM
Quote from: Sheilbh on November 30, 2021, 07:33:17 AM
But that just increases my biggest worry/initial concern that he won't get to the second round, Le Pen will, but his presence in the campaign will make Le Pen look like a more moderate/mainstream.
You're reading this the wrong way. Zemmour will get votes Le Pen never could. He's seen as more moderate than Le Pen.
Right on the former, as he would get some votes Marine would not get, disagree with the latter. Marine is now seen as more moderate or less extreme, as you will, thanks to him.
Right now, Zemmour has taken front stage but she is probably bidding her time.
Quote from: Sheilbh on December 01, 2021, 06:29:20 AM
Of course I could be wrong. They could divide the far-right and we end up with a Macron-Bertrand race at the end which isn't the worst thing in the world.
Exactly.
Quote from: Duque de Bragança on December 01, 2021, 07:21:47 AM
See? Far from commonly interpreted as you said, but pretty much contested.
Something can be a pretty common interpretation and contested - they're not contradictory. What I mean by commons is not fringe. But of course, it's not universal - fascism and its origins is an open area of scholarship.
Because there is no answer to what is fascism, what are its antecedents and how did arise - there will always be multiple takes on that and different ways of looking at or answering those questions.
Quote from: Sheilbh on December 01, 2021, 07:28:12 AM
Quote from: Duque de Bragança on December 01, 2021, 07:21:47 AM
See? Far from commonly interpreted as you said, but pretty much contested.
Something can be a pretty common interpretation and contested - they're not contradictory. What I mean by commons is not fringe. But of course, it's not universal - fascism and its origins is an open area of scholarship.
Because there is no answer to what is fascism, what are its antecedents and how did arise - there will always be multiple takes on that and different ways of looking at or answering those questions.
Still a far cry from commonly interpreted because you specified "anyone influenced by marxism" and mentioning Trotsky, trots not being really common these days, even in France.
Back to topic, upset last night : Xavier Bertrand out of the run-off. Ciotti vs Pécresse.
Assuming Bertrand does not oppose the results or ask for a recount since he supports Pécresse vs Ciotti, I just don't see Ciotti so I guess Pécresse is the favourite now with the latter being a bit more "national", less right-wing.
I was surprised by those results. Pecresse is (probably) a shoe-in.
Yeah - although I swore I'd read that Bertrand was planning to run anyway/regardless of the results?
On Ciotti doing well it was mentioned in this thread from Ben Judah yesterday which catches my concern around Zemmour normalising Le Pen - perhaps it's less about who is more far right but that he opens supporting Le Pen to voters who previously have rejected her in particular traditionalist right-wing voters who seem far more tempted by Zemmour than they ever have been by Le Pen:
QuoteBen Judah
@b_judah
I don't think Zemmour can win only and that he only has a chance of being in 2nd round. But @ECiotti currently leading in some polling to lead the centre-right saying he will vote for him in 2nd round shows the real danger he prefigures: a full blending of right and far right.
My expectation is Macron will win against 40-45% of the vote against Zemmour or Le Pen but this will leave this advancing far right — now blended with most of the old right — in prime place to beat the little politicians seeking to succeed him. Two terms of Obama; then Trump.
Worst case scenario for Macron? Zemmour sets themes for campaign to Round 1; allies and endorses Le Pen for Round 2 breaking a respectability ceiling on her vote for centre right; massive terrorist attacks before Round 2 create a Bataclan atmosphere — then we're looking 52-48.
I still think Macron wins even in that scenario: strong campaigner, lots of willingness to manoeuvre and strong enough story — but needs to win convincingly to set up future liberals and not scrape in as a hanger on to stop far right inevitability politics That's a win with 55%+.
Why do I think Macron still wins? I think Macron and fundamentals are too good. And I think Zemmour and Le Pen — unlike Trump, for example — are at the end of the day not really seen as credible leaders. Polling back this up on them two.
I think the risk of him setting the agenda in the first round is particularly key.
Edit: Eg:
QuoteGiovanni Capoccia
@gcapoccia1
Zemmour has welcomed E Ciotti's top score in the 1st round of Les Republicains primaries as an affirmation of "their" ideas. Just in case anybody still doubted Zemmour's influence on this campaign. Below is one of Ciotti's slogans--which is also Zemmour's mantra.
(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FFoW-KTXMAECFBH?format=jpg&name=small)
A couple thoughts on polling:
-if we have Zemmour, LePen, and Pecresse all viable candidates, are they pulling from similar enough pools of voters to open the door to a left wing candidate like Melenchon?
-the most recent harris interactive poll, in the scenario of a Pecresse primary win, had LePen at 20%, Pecresse at 11%, and Zemmour at 13%. Add those together and you have 44% of voters....there have been some polls with the right wing at higher amounts. Is France's population becoming rather right wing, with a strong trumpy flair (I'd put LePen and Zemmour in that camp, and they together have 1/3 of the polled votes)?
Quote from: alfred russel on December 03, 2021, 12:30:34 PM
A couple thoughts on polling:
-if we have Zemmour, LePen, and Pecresse all viable candidates, are they pulling from similar enough pools of voters to open the door to a left wing candidate like Melenchon?
Nope. Mélenchon is at a very low level compared to 2017, others are very low, and the left, even if not counting Jupin, is divided. Greens don't do well in presidential elections generally.
Quote
-the most recent harris interactive poll, in the scenario of a Pecresse primary win, had LePen at 20%, Pecresse at 11%, and Zemmour at 13%. Add those together and you have 44% of voters....there have been some polls with the right wing at higher amounts. Is France's population becoming rather right wing, with a strong trumpy flair (I'd put LePen and Zemmour in that camp, and they together have 1/3 of the polled votes)?
To the right yes, but trumpism is too Yank to be really useful in a comparison. Zemmour being an intellectual (opposite of Trump) and Marine is still far from Trump's low levels, trying to appear as somewhat moderate.
Quote from: alfred russel on December 03, 2021, 12:30:34 PM
A couple thoughts on polling:
-if we have Zemmour, LePen, and Pecresse all viable candidates, are they pulling from similar enough pools of voters to open the door to a left wing candidate like Melenchon?
I don't think so. Sadly I think the left are so divided and none of them seem to be doing well. If we do your addng together candidates of the right thing for the left I think they come out at about 25% which would be enough to get to the second round, but divided acrosss, say, seven candidates I can't see a point where they beat one of the French right-to-far right candidates.
The left vote is just so much more fragmented that even if the right cannibalise each other, one probably still survives.
Quote-the most recent harris interactive poll, in the scenario of a Pecresse primary win, had LePen at 20%, Pecresse at 11%, and Zemmour at 13%. Add those together and you have 44% of voters....there have been some polls with the right wing at higher amounts. Is France's population becoming rather right wing, with a strong trumpy flair (I'd put LePen and Zemmour in that camp, and they together have 1/3 of the polled votes)?
I think I mentioned it before (or it might have been an article I read), but the comparison for Zemmour that works best, I think, is if Tucker Carlson ran for President.
Edit: In a way it's interesting - he's written history books and columns and is regularly on TV etc. Similarly you have Baudet who's got a PHD in philosophy, similarly had a media presence. I think - and I could be wrong because I love extrapolating to a grand unproveable theory - but I think this trend might be the start of a second wave of the far-right in Europe. The traditional far-right that we know and are used to talking about just about escaped the yobbish circles they moved in in the 70s/80s, but were basically parties of small towns, the whole "left behind" thesis or they were pitching for votes from people who hadn't been to university.
With Baudet and Zemmour it's different. It's the far right with a post-grad degree. They're aiming more at urban voters, more at educated voters (this is perhaps why Zemmour appeals more to traditional centre right voters than Le Pen ever has). It's the far right for people who want plausible deniability ("just asking questions") which is reflected in its preoccupations things like race and IQ or a pseudish version of the great replacement theory. I don't know how it'll work out but for many people voting for, say, Le Pen is a bit declasse and now they have an alternative. It may be a difference mainly in style - but I think style matters a lot in politics.
How have the French left become this weak and divided? I get they've always been divided - but I looked back to 2002 and the left are split but winning over 40% of the vote. Here, they're split and winning about 25% of the vote :blink:
(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FG4PisfXMAEzQij?format=jpg&name=medium)
This whole polling pack is very interesting - I get that one part of it is clearly anti-system (Le Pen, Zemmour, Melenchon) v system politics (Macron, Pecresse, Hidalgo). And looking at the breakdown by class it looks like France has the most reactionary working class in any developed democracy with over 50% going for Le Pen or Zemmour (and even higher if you include the slight red-brown tendencies of Melenchon).
But it is extraoardinary when in a few European countries, especially Germany, there's been a bit of a fightback from the centre-left (de-PASOKification, perhaps). But not here.
More generally, it looks like Pecresse is having a bit of a honeymoon since the primary win and it now looks more likely that Le Pen and Zemmour are just splitting different types of far-right votes. But, obviously, that can change. I think at this point 2017 it still looked like Fillon-Le Pen was the more likely second round.
or maybe the working class has understood very well that the left has abandoned (betrayed?) them by going full open-border-bourgeois and by -lately- going ever-woker?
The working class is usually far less 'progressive' than the city-dwelling bo-bos, nationalism generally doesn't leave a bad taste among the working class and they're also, usually, the first to 'enjoy' the many 'benefits' of mass-migration of incompatible cultures. Not to mention the expensive climate-plans...
And after 40 years you'd think that the left has understood that by now and changed their course. Maybe they haven't understood it yet, or maybe they have and the think that in the long term they've got more to gain by sucking up to the imported?
Not unlike this little poem by Brecht:
Quote
After the uprising of the 17th June
The Secretary of the Writers Union
Had leaflets distributed in the Stalinallee
Stating that the people
Had forfeited the confidence of the government
And could win it back only
By redoubled efforts. Would it not be easier
In that case for the government
To dissolve the people
And elect another?
but with an extra large dose of Monty Python's People's Front of Judea.
long story short: Voting left is very expensive, in a lot of ways
France has been earning my respect this past week.
Just read about the news earlier in the year that they're banning internal flights where the train journey takes under 2 hours with a push to make it 4. Great sane move.
Then I read this.
https://www.thedrive.com/news/43727/france-will-require-car-ads-to-tell-people-to-walk-or-bike-instead
What on earth is going on that France is being so progressive?
It sounds super dumb to take a flight when a train journey is 2 hours, but those flights are going to be filled with people on connecting flights.
When I was going to interviews at Notre Dame I flew to Chicago a bunch of times--it is an hour and a half drive. Every time I flew on to another city like Atlanta or Portland. If I was actually going to Chicago I drove, which of course is the only thing that makes sense. But taking a train to Chicago (if one existed) and then changing to a flight to Portland would have been a pain in the ass.
Quote from: alfred russel on January 05, 2022, 06:43:53 AM
It sounds super dumb to take a flight when a train journey is 2 hours, but those flights are going to be filled with people on connecting flights.
When I was going to interviews at Notre Dame I flew to Chicago a bunch of times--it is an hour and a half drive. Every time I flew on to another city like Atlanta or Portland. If I was actually going to Chicago I drove, which of course is the only thing that makes sense. But taking a train to Chicago (if one existed) and then changing to a flight to Portland would have been a pain in the ass.
Yep can't let the state of the climate inconvenience us a bit.
Connecting flights are a problem.
More than once I flew Geneva to Zurich as it was cheaper than just taking the train to Zurich then flying from there. This kind of thing really has to stop. Taking the train is so much more preferable - YMMV depending on how accessible airports are though. Manchester with its train station is a far more pleasant experience than Leeds where you need to take a bus out of the city for instance.
Quote from: mongers on January 05, 2022, 08:48:20 AM
Quote from: alfred russel on January 05, 2022, 06:43:53 AM
It sounds super dumb to take a flight when a train journey is 2 hours, but those flights are going to be filled with people on connecting flights.
When I was going to interviews at Notre Dame I flew to Chicago a bunch of times--it is an hour and a half drive. Every time I flew on to another city like Atlanta or Portland. If I was actually going to Chicago I drove, which of course is the only thing that makes sense. But taking a train to Chicago (if one existed) and then changing to a flight to Portland would have been a pain in the ass.
Yep can't let the state of the climate inconvenience us a bit.
If you want to address the impact of air travel on climate change there are actual concrete steps that can be taken rather than a basically trivial step against a type of travel that sounds dumb on the surface but isn't actually.
Put a 100% tax on air travel for instance. Stop subsidizing airlines and thus air travel when they get in financial distress. Stop subsidizing airports, etc.
Quote from: alfred russel on January 05, 2022, 09:14:50 AM
Quote from: mongers on January 05, 2022, 08:48:20 AM
Quote from: alfred russel on January 05, 2022, 06:43:53 AM
It sounds super dumb to take a flight when a train journey is 2 hours, but those flights are going to be filled with people on connecting flights.
When I was going to interviews at Notre Dame I flew to Chicago a bunch of times--it is an hour and a half drive. Every time I flew on to another city like Atlanta or Portland. If I was actually going to Chicago I drove, which of course is the only thing that makes sense. But taking a train to Chicago (if one existed) and then changing to a flight to Portland would have been a pain in the ass.
Yep can't let the state of the climate inconvenience us a bit.
If you want to address the impact of air travel on climate change there are actual concrete steps that can be taken rather than a basically trivial step against a type of travel that sounds dumb on the surface but isn't actually.
Put a 100% tax on air travel for instance. Stop subsidizing airlines and thus air travel when they get in financial distress. Stop subsidizing airports, etc.
The rail network is much more developed in France than in Illinois. You could also just drive to Chicago or take a bus and then get on the flight. It's not rocket science.
Quote from: Zoupa on January 05, 2022, 09:35:22 AM
The rail network is much more developed in France than in Illinois. You could also just drive to Chicago or take a bus and then get on the flight. It's not rocket science.
:huh: Of course that is possible. It would be a pain in the ass. You are a college student trying to make a day trip to Portland for an interview. You have two options:
-cab to the south bend airport, fly to chicago, fly on to Portland (and then the return trip)
-cab to the bus station, bus to chicago, probably cab to the airport in Chicago from the bus station, then flight to portland
Yeah it is easier IF the airport in question is charles de gaulle where there are good train connections. But it can still be a pain in the ass, especially if you are traveling with children and a decent amount of luggage.
Quote from: alfred russel on January 05, 2022, 06:43:53 AM
It sounds super dumb to take a flight when a train journey is 2 hours, but those flights are going to be filled with people on connecting flights.
When I was going to interviews at Notre Dame I flew to Chicago a bunch of times--it is an hour and a half drive. Every time I flew on to another city like Atlanta or Portland. If I was actually going to Chicago I drove, which of course is the only thing that makes sense. But taking a train to Chicago (if one existed) and then changing to a flight to Portland would have been a pain in the ass.
If that train existed it would probably be just as fast as the flight+layover, so not really a pain in the ass at all.
There's a lot to be gained by eliminating these very short haul flights.
I was curious how long a train ride would be from my home town to St. Louis:
QuoteTraveling by train from Jefferson City to St Louis usually takes around 2 hours and 31 minutes, but the fastest Amtrak Missouri River Runner train can make the trip in 2 hours and 30 minutes.
Quote from: alfred russel on January 05, 2022, 06:43:53 AM
It sounds super dumb to take a flight when a train journey is 2 hours, but those flights are going to be filled with people on connecting flights.
When I was going to interviews at Notre Dame I flew to Chicago a bunch of times--it is an hour and a half drive. Every time I flew on to another city like Atlanta or Portland. If I was actually going to Chicago I drove, which of course is the only thing that makes sense. But taking a train to Chicago (if one existed) and then changing to a flight to Portland would have been a pain in the ass.
Doesn't that rather depend on the convenience of the train connection?
I've taken trains directly from airports on a number of occasions and they've been pretty convenient. On the other hand, getting out of the Vancouver Airport and then taking a Pacific Railway train would - as you say - be a massive pain in the ass.
But jumping on an intercity train at the Copenhagen airport (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Copenhagen_Airport,_Kastrup_Station) is not inconvenient at all, for example.
Yeah some airports are very well connected, but even the ones that aren't (like those favoured by the budget airlines) will have plenty of shuttle buses to and from the station.
I also just feel like connecting flights are less common here - possibly because of all the budget airlines with multiple bases across different countries so you're normally pretty close to a fairly well connected airport. It might be a thing for business flights, but otherwise the only times I've had connecting flights in Europe is going to Bosnia before the budget airlines opened there or at the end of a long-haul-ish flight (e.g. Asia via Frankfurt).
Quote from: Jacob on January 05, 2022, 11:42:39 AM
Quote from: alfred russel on January 05, 2022, 06:43:53 AM
It sounds super dumb to take a flight when a train journey is 2 hours, but those flights are going to be filled with people on connecting flights.
When I was going to interviews at Notre Dame I flew to Chicago a bunch of times--it is an hour and a half drive. Every time I flew on to another city like Atlanta or Portland. If I was actually going to Chicago I drove, which of course is the only thing that makes sense. But taking a train to Chicago (if one existed) and then changing to a flight to Portland would have been a pain in the ass.
Doesn't that rather depend on the convenience of the train connection?
I've taken trains directly from airports on a number of occasions and they've been pretty convenient. On the other hand, getting out of the Vancouver Airport and then taking a Pacific Railway train would - as you say - be a massive pain in the ass.
But jumping on an intercity train at the Copenhagen airport (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Copenhagen_Airport,_Kastrup_Station) is not inconvenient at all, for example.
There will be some that are convenient and some that are not. For those that are not, travelers may substitute longer duration flights. For example, rather converting my South Bend --> Chicago --> Portland flight to South Bend --> bus to Chicago --> Portland scenario, travelers could shift to South Bend --> Las Vegas --> Portland and actually increase the flight time.
If you had a deterrent tax on miles flown, that would deter not only your indifferent traveler but also your traveler contemplating a longer air route. It would also deter the bulk of travelers that go a lot further than 2 hours by air. But then lots of people would have to sacrifice in that scenario, rather than this proposal that just picks on a minority of travelers that appear stupid in a cursory internet analysis.
If short flights are so terrible, why does France have to institute a ban? You'd think if its citizens were against short flights, they wouldn't take them. Is it just tourists?
Quote from: garbon on January 05, 2022, 01:49:13 PM
If short flights are so terrible, why does France have to institute a ban? You'd think if its citizens were against short flights, they wouldn't take them. Is it just tourists?
Business travellers would be my bet. In the UK 90% of domestic flights are taken by 2% of people, overwhelmingly I'd guess, for business. Obviously they're also travellers who don't really care about tax rises or frequent flier levies because they're not paying.
Quote from: Sheilbh on January 05, 2022, 01:58:47 PM
Quote from: garbon on January 05, 2022, 01:49:13 PM
If short flights are so terrible, why does France have to institute a ban? You'd think if its citizens were against short flights, they wouldn't take them. Is it just tourists?
Business travellers would be my bet. In the UK 90% of domestic flights are taken by 2% of people, overwhelmingly I'd guess, for business. Obviously they're also travellers who don't really care about tax rises or frequent flier levies because they're not paying.
Business travelers are choosing the less efficient method? Or is it that flights are still more efficient than rail?
Quote from: garbon on January 05, 2022, 02:17:07 PM
Business travelers are choosing the less efficient method? Or is it that flights are still more efficient than rail?
I think for most domestic city-to-city trips that don't start in London it would probably be more efficient.
Also more what they're used to, what's a little more prestigious, what allows them to turn off their phone and not work and where it's more socially acceptable to have a drink - plus air miles. Admittedly this may be shaped by my perception from working in a law firm and my experience of business travellers being older white men :lol: :ph34r:
You want a regulation that is overdue and would help the climate? Ban airmiles.
Two fronts:
1) getting status is often contingent on actually flying miles. Buy a ticket but don't fly? You don't get the status. There is a small cottage industry of people that find super cheap long haul tickets so they can get / keep status on airlines, but are ultimately flights to no where.
2) you are effectively bribing business travelers to rip off their employers. If I'm booking a flight and have status / most miles on delta but the cheapest flight is on a random airline--or alternatively there is a marginally more effective method of travel? I have a strong incentive to figure out a way to get on that delta flight. Which is a major motivation of airlines having miles programs.
Quote from: Sheilbh on January 05, 2022, 02:23:33 PM
I think for most domestic city-to-city trips that don't start in London it would probably be more efficient.
Does this apply to France as well? Why not improve the quality of access/service from rail rather than ban air?
Quote from: Sheilbh on January 05, 2022, 02:23:33 PM
Also more what they're used to, what's a little more prestigious, what allows them to turn off their phone and not work and where it's more socially acceptable to have a drink - plus air miles. Admittedly this may be shaped by my perception from working in a law firm and my experience of business travellers being older white men :lol: :ph34r:
Business travelers aren't only old men, so there is room for younger people to learn a new pattern. Actually it was an old man (a VP) in one of my early roles that had suggested I take rail between Marseille and Paris rather than a flight when I was young. -_-
On the bits in bold, I feel like it is also socially acceptable not to talk on the phone while on a train and easy enough to not open one's laptop. When I think about the UK, I don't see any evidence that it is socially unacceptable to drink on a train. Far from it. :D
Quote from: garbon on January 05, 2022, 02:57:02 PMDoes this apply to France as well? Why not improve the quality of access/service from rail rather than ban air?
I don't think so, I think France is far better at connections between places not going through Paris, also over 2,500kms of high speed rail while the UK's spent a couple of decades and a few billions deciding not to finish it's second 500 km of high speed rail <_<
I agree though in the UK improving rail is key here but France is pretty good.
QuoteWhen I think about the UK, I don't see any evidence that it is socially unacceptable to drink on a train. Far from it. :D
Diane Abbott - a nation salutes you :lol:
Quote from: Sheilbh on January 05, 2022, 03:05:38 PM
I don't think so, I think France is far better at connections between places not going through Paris, also over 2,500kms of high speed rail while the UK's spent a couple of decades and a few billions deciding not to finish it's second 500 km of high speed rail <_<
I agree though in the UK improving rail is key here but France is pretty good.
So perhaps not exactly illuminating as to why there are people in France who still prefer flight over rail for domestic travel.
Quote from: Sheilbh on January 05, 2022, 03:05:38 PM
Diane Abbott - a nation salutes you :lol:
Wasn't her mistake that she was doing it on the Overground? As part of TfL, she fell afoul of its prohibition on consuming alcohol which is not present on major train services.
Parisians who want to see as little of the provinces as possible.
Quote from: garbon on January 05, 2022, 03:19:14 PM
So perhaps not exactly illuminating as to why there are people in France who still prefer flight over rail for domestic travel.
Fair - but if there's an alternative that is workable and I think in France there is, then I don't see the problem with banning it. We couldn't here yet (until we overrule the NIMBYs and build high speed rail everywhere).
QuoteWasn't her mistake that she was doing it on the Overground? As part of TfL, she fell afoul of its prohibition on consuming alcohol which is not present on major train services.
Yes that's right - I think it's been banned on ScotRail now (along with food) as a covid measure. Though of course it made her a bit of a folk hero because, really, who of us hasn't had a mojito or G&T in a can on the train?
Quote from: garbon on January 05, 2022, 01:49:13 PM
If short flights are so terrible, why does France have to institute a ban? You'd think if its citizens were against short flights, they wouldn't take them. Is it just tourists?
As said they're often priced better than the train. I've seen this in many countries. Even Japan.
If the price was the same I really don't know what sort of lunatic would choose a flight.
Quote from: Valmy on January 05, 2022, 03:21:33 PM
Parisians who want to see as little of the provinces as possible.
yeah, at least Montrealers here have the excuse of distance. Parisians however, they can cross the country in a couple of hours of train :P
Re. a civilisational turn in Europe:
QuoteValérie Pécresse rally focuses on immigration as threat from rivals grows
Les Républicains' presidential choice promises crackdown after defections to Macron and rise in far-right's polling
Angelique Chrisafis in Paris
@achrisafis
Sun 13 Feb 2022 19.14 GMT
The rightwing French presidential candidate Valérie Pécresse vowed to crack down on immigration as she held her first big rally on Sunday amid competition from the growing far right and defections from her party to the centrist leader Emmanuel Macron.
"There is no sovereignty without borders," Pécresse said on stage in Paris as more than 6,000 people waved French flags in support of the first female presidential candidate for Les Républicains, the traditional rightwing party of Jacques Chirac and Nicolas Sarkozy.
Pécresse, who on a recent trip to Greek migrant camps said she was not against "barbed wire" to keep migrants out of Europe, told the rally that she would support the building of barriers and "even walls" on the edge of Europe if the countries on the frontline wanted it. It was a clear reference to her rival, the controversial, far-right TV pundit Éric Zemmour, who this week suggested building a Donald Trump-style anti-immigration "wall" around the edges of the EU.
A former budget minister under Sarkozy, Pécresse, 54, wants to be seen as the only feasible rival to Macron ahead of the April election. But she faces the serious challenge of whether she can make it to the second round runoff. The far right has risen in force to represent about 30% of the vote in current polls, and is split between two candidates, Marine Le Pen, running for the third time, and the newcomer Zemmour. Both are hovering around the same score as Pécresse in the polls.
At the rally, Pécresse cited her heroes, Britain's Margaret Thatcher and Germany's Angela Merkel, as "women who always defended their people", saying she wanted to create a "New France" of law and order, with tight controls on immigration and quotas for migrants.
She said she would also oppose what she termed woke movements, which she said threatened to "demolish French identity", tellling the rally that as leader of the Île-de-France region, which includes Paris and its surrounding area, she had banned "burkinis" or full-body swimsuits, from pools. To cheers from the hall, she said: "For me, the headscarf is not a piece of clothing like any other. It's not a religious prescription. It's a sign of the submission of a woman." She criticised Macron's government for refusing to ban the Muslim headscarf from competitive sports.
Pécresse repeated her promise that "the salaries of French people will increase by 10% during my presidency", and said she would decentralise France, attacking Macron for a top-down leadership style and high public spending, which she said had tipped France into dangerous debt.
A fluent Russian-speaker, Pécresse delved into international affairs, saying that under Macron, France had been "humiliated" on the international scene, including over the Aukus defence agreement between Australia, the US and the UK.
While Macron is at 24% in the first round, according to the latest Cevipof poll for Le Monde, Pécresse is at 15.5%, with Le Pen at 15% and Zemmour at 14.5%.
Without naming Zemmour or Le Pen, Pécresse told the crowd: "The extremists are lying to you. Refuse the venom of their nostalgia. Don't let anger and fear win."
Pécresse is under pressure from her party to pull ahead of her far-right rivals in the polls just as president Macron is expected to declare his re-election bid this month.
But she suffered a blow this week on immigration when Natacha Bouchart, the rightwing mayor of Calais, broke ranks and announced she would support Macron for the presidential race.
Bouchart is an outspoken critic of the situation of migrants wanting to reach Britain from the northern French coast on small boats. Bouchart said Macron had "listened attentively" to the problems of Calais and increased government involvement. She said she was supporting Macron "in the general interest of Calais".
Pécresse has failed to dominate the political debate with her policy ideas, in part because she is seen as attempting to cover all ideological bases in a divided party.
She is seen as hailing from the moderate, centrist wing of the right, which Macron himself has won over by appointing two rightwing prime ministers. But Pécresse is also veering very hard right to win over the increasingly anti-immigration line on French national identity in her own party. Pollsters say her messaging to voters is not always clear.
Chloé Morin, a political analyst who interviewed Pécresse on her communication style for a new book, We Get The Politicians We Deserve, said the rightwing candidate had been accused of appearing too studious and lacking spontaneity on screen. But Pécresse has criticised those who "act" in front of the cameras.
Morin added: "Today, part of Pécresse's space is occupied by Emmanuel Macron, who has the advantage of being the president in office ... he has stifled her ground on the economy. And on the other side, she's facing serious competition from Éric Zemmour and Marine Le Pen, who have the advantage of being in a more populist register of one-upmanship and can make themselves more audible in a media world that values clashes and buzz. They are more audible than Pécresse, who has to be more measured."
Meanwhile, Le Pen and Zemmour continued their own vicious battle to win far-right voters, with another defection from Le Pen's National Rally party. Stéphane Ravier, Le Pen's only senator, jumped ship to Zemmour saying he was best able to "unite" the far right.
And also brings to mind Art Goldhammer's point that there's a re-alignment in France right now to a party of the centre right and party of the far right - which is fairly grim :(
QuoteRealignment!
Arthur Goldhammer
11 February 2022
Tocqueville 21 Blog
This year's presidential campaign has thus far generated little excitement, but behind the scenes a remarkable party realignment seems to be well under way. This was underscored by three events this week: Eric Woerth abandoned Valérie Pécresse, the chosen candidate of his Republican party to announce his support for Emmanuel Macron; Rachida Dati denounced Pécresse's candidacy as "nonexistent"; and Pécresse herself, recognizing her growing difficulties, finally decided to bend the knee and kiss the ring of Nicolas Sarkozy, who has thus far refused to endorse her and who has been widely quoted in the press expressing doubts about her personality (he called her a "Queen Bee") and her skills as a campaigner.
Interestingly, Woerth criticized Pécresse's campaign as trop droitière for its emphasis on immigration and insecurity–the themes favored not only by her rival Éric Zemmour but also by primary runner-up Éric Ciotti. In placating Ciotti for the sake of party unity, Pécresse has evidently alienated the Sarkozystes, including Sarkozy himself. Yet when they were in power, they were hardly bashful about emphasizing the same issues in order to ward off the challenge of Le Pen. Perhaps they feel that this year the split in the far right makes shoring up this side of the coalition unnecessary. Or perhaps it's simply ambition talking: Woerth and/or Dati could be in line for ministries in a new Macron administration, and Sarkozy may well be looking for a presidential pardon before too long. They know where the real power is likely to lie after the April elections.
Fundamentally, though, what is happening is the party realignment that many expected after the 2017 election. It has taken a while, but this election and the legislatives that follow may mark the next steps. Macron has shown that the way to consolidate power in the center of the French political spectrum was not to create a centrist faction within the formerly dominant parties of the left or right but to split from them and reorganize around a charismatic but unclassifiable personality. Hollande couldn't do it: he lacked the charisma; Valls couldn't do it: he had made too many enemies; Juppé couldn't do it: the right wing of LR was too powerful.
LREM is not yet a fully-fledged party; it lacks deep local roots and an effective organization, and the ideological allegiances of its elected officials tend in many different and incompatible directions. But, despite these shortcomings, it's clearly going to remain a powerful force for the foreseeable future, as the actions of Woerth, Dati, and Sarkozy make clear. It's not at all clear that the same can be said of LR. The demise of LR and the continuing dissolution of the once impermeable membrane separating the mainstream right from the far right mean that there will be a coming party realignment around two poles, a center-right and a far right.
Meanwhile, on the left, the Communist candidate, Fabien Roussel, has surpassed the Socialist candidate, Anne Hidalgo, in the most recent polls. That hasn't happened in more than half a century. So the two parties that had dominated French politics during that long period may not be with us much longer. That is an important change, which bears further reflection.
Edit: More from Bloomberg - hard to miss Zemmour's impact on the race here:
Quote"In 10 years will we still be the seventh power in the world? Will we still be a sovereign nation or instead a U.S. auxiliary, a trading post of China? Will we be a united nation or a fragmented nation?" she said. "Faced with these vital questions, neither the great downgrading, nor the great replacement are inevitable."
Great replacement :bleeding:
Quote from: Sheilbh on February 13, 2022, 03:03:38 PM
Re. a civilisational turn in Europe:
Tough line on immigration and citing Merkel? That's a typical contradiction in terms.
Pécresse is just playing the part for the audience.
Quote from: Tyr on February 15, 2022, 10:57:32 AM
Great replacement :bleeding:
Not just that but talking about there being areas of France that are not French, saying she wants to make French people at heart not just "paper Frenchmen" ("Francais de papier") - which I understand originated as a term for Jews in the 19th century. As I say with the "Islamo-leftism"/"Judeo-Bolshevism", the "great replacement" and "paper Frenchmen", there's some really alarming language in France right now - and it's being used by more and more mainstream politicians.
Edit: Oh and obviously she added that "le wokisme" is the opposite of the Republic. Macron's team have separately set up an "anti-woke" think tank to resist this new Anglo-Saxon "cultural totalitarianism" :lol: :bleeding:
It is a hard concept to reconcile with the french laïcité movement.
Quote from: Sheilbh on February 15, 2022, 12:05:40 PM
Not just that but talking about there being areas of France that are not French, saying she wants to make French people at heart not just "paper Frenchmen" ("Francais de papier") - which I understand originated as a term for Jews in the 19th century. As I say with the "Islamo-leftism"/"Judeo-Bolshevism", the "great replacement" and "paper Frenchmen", there's some really alarming language in France right now - and it's being used by more and more mainstream politicians.
Not really for the Jews in the 19th Century, though it also applied to them if they were recent Central/Eastern immigrants ashkenazis as opposed to Sephardis, once called "Portuguese" (Portuguese only meant the average Portuguese from the late 19th/ early 20th century) who had been there for a much longer time, cf. banker Péreire/Pereira who eventually got a boulevard in West Paris.
In fact, it really became common parlance between the Two World Wars for recent naturalisations. In some cases, Germans "Papier Franzosen" who chose to become French in order to stay and keep all rights in Alsace-Moselle.
So in general for immigrants, or
métèques as the beloved future socialist François Mitterrand would say and demonstrate against, so Italians, Poles and Spaniards etc.
Trouble is, the Français de papier concept (for welfare purposes only no real link with France) has some merit given the situation in some places such as Roubaix, referred by Crazy Ivan earlier.
Quote
Edit: Oh and obviously she added that "le wokisme" is the opposite of the Republic. Macron's team have separately set up an "anti-woke" think tank to resist this new Anglo-Saxon "cultural totalitarianism" :lol: :bleeding:
I prefer "wokerie" as a term, since it rhymes with connerie. :P
Given how much Macron is into franglais I would not worry too much about Anglo-Saxon cultural "totalitarianism" being defeated, sadly.
Has there been any polling of Melenchon versus Macron in round 2? I assume Macron would roll, but with Zemmour and Le Pen splitting the right wing moron vote he could sneak into round 2...I saw a very recent poll with him 3rd at 13% and LePen is in second with just 15%. That is margin of error territory.
Would certainly make for a delicious irony with flipped groups voting challenger and holding their nose and voting macron.
On the surface anyway. Last election some left wing French I know were thinking to vote le pen out of some kind of shake shit up / accelerationist desire
I've not seen any but it feels like the surge has been relatively recent so he's been bobbing around 10-11% for a while, while Zemmour, Pecresse and Le Pen have all, at one time or another, been in the high teens.
Quote from: Tyr on March 09, 2022, 07:03:18 AMOn the surface anyway. Last election some left wing French I know were thinking to vote le pen out of some kind of shake shit up / accelerationist desire
I think there's been a lot more talk (and polling) suggesting left-wing voters might abstain if it's Macron-Le Pen again. The polls for that have stayed pretty solidly at 55/45 which is solid - but not great and a shift from 66/33. Hopefully Le Pen's long Putin links etc will take their toll and bring numbers back down to where she was in 2017.
I've always thought Macron will win and I think he will win better than we'd expectd because of the war - but I'm not sure if the tankie left (who will, I imagine, broadly be backing Melenchon) might play a bit of a spoiler role. I think they'd still just abstain but I wonder if in part they'd be tempted to vote for Le Pen over Macron who is being "aggressive" and "provocative" in supporting arming Ukraine, increasing European defence commitments etc in a way that is aimed at Putin and broadly in support of the "hegemonic/imperialist" West? :hmm:
Nothing will make me laugh/cry more than the French left doing a "people's primary" to try and find a unity candidate - the end result was that Taubira launched another campaign and none of the other left-wing candidates withdrew (she has since pulled out - but still) :lol: :weep:
QuoteHas there been any polling of Melenchon versus Macron in round 2? I assume Macron would roll, but with Zemmour and Le Pen splitting the right wing moron vote he could sneak into round 2...I saw a very recent poll with him 3rd at 13% and LePen is in second with just 15%. That is margin of error territory.
QuoteI've not seen any but it feels like the surge has been relatively recent so he's been bobbing around 10-11% for a while, while Zemmour, Pecresse and Le Pen have all, at one time or another, been in the high teens.
QuoteOn the surface anyway. Last election some left wing French I know were thinking to vote le pen out of some kind of shake shit up / accelerationist desire
QuoteI think there's been a lot more talk (and polling) suggesting left-wing voters might abstain if it's Macron-Le Pen again. The polls for that have stayed pretty solidly at 55/45 which is solid - but not great and a shift from 66/33. Hopefully Le Pen's long Putin links etc will take their toll and bring numbers back down to where she was in 2017.
QuoteI've always thought Macron will win and I think he will win better than we'd expectd because of the war - but I'm not sure if the tankie left (who will, I imagine, broadly be backing Melenchon) might play a bit of a spoiler role. I think they'd still just abstain but I wonder if in part they'd be tempted to vote for Le Pen over Macron who is being "aggressive" and "provocative" in supporting arming Ukraine, increasing European defence commitments etc in a way that is aimed at Putin and broadly in support of the "hegemonic/imperialist" West? :hmm:
Mélenchon has had a few rough spots during the campaign, but his islamo-leftist stance does not seem damaged by his pro-Putin stance (and anti-Central/Eastern Euro racism). Last poll puts hims before even Pécresse (free fall according to polls lots of potential voters go to Macron).
Mélenchon in the run-off means even more votes (70 vs 30° for Flanby 2.0 (Jupiterian wannabee) than against Marine 60 vs 40° or even Zemmour (68 VS 32°. Marine quickly repudiated her support for Putin, Zemmour less so and less adroitly. Mélenchon still wants France out of NATO, whereas the other two just want out of the integrated command and blames the US/NATO and Russia equally for the war. For a man who claims to be "insoumis" he is certainly submissive to strong men such as Putin. :P
Zemmour, instead of paying at least paying lip service to to accepting real refugees at least in a token way, something even his most identity politics voters would have accepted or even encouraged, only mentioned supporting Poland in dealing with refugees so before the crisis he had momentum, tied with Marine to the run-off. He seems to have at least stopped the losses for now.
Maquereau, being the coward he is or realist about his real debating abilities, has refused any debate with other contendants, even major ones, before the first round.
That being said, Mélenchon appears to be well above anyone else left in the left (excluding the liberal opportunist Macro). Hidalgo, Paris Mayor and official PS candidate is polled at 1.5-2 %. :lol: Jadot, Green candidate with a fairly divided party (radical leftist wing, bobo darling is around 5%, Commmunist remnant at 3.5 %.
For Sheilbh, Trots are around 1 %, both of them. :P
Dupont-Aignant (souverainiste) is around 2%.
QuoteNothing will make me laugh/cry more than the French left doing a "people's primary" to try and find a unity candidate - the end result was that Taubira launched another campaign and none of the other left-wing candidates withdrew (she has since pulled out - but still) :lol: :weep:
You are bit harsh on Taubira(clure for her most vehement critics a quite offensive portmanteau). She promised she would not be another candidate. She kept her word! :lol:
Good God - a French President with a net positive approval rating :o Don't know if I've ever seen that before.
QuoteWorld Elects@ElectsWorld
#France, President Macron approval rating poll:
Approve: 51 % (+11)
Disapprove: 47 % (-11)
IFOP, 03/03/22
One of the signs of impending apocalypse, no doubt.
Quote from: Sheilbh on March 10, 2022, 05:39:13 PMGood God - a French President with a net positive approval rating at the end of his mandate :o Don't know if I've ever seen that before.
QuoteWorld Elects@ElectsWorld
#France, President Macron approval rating poll:
Approve: 51 % (+11)
Disapprove: 47 % (-11)
IFOP, 03/03/22
Fixed!
Entirely due to circumstances beyond Flanby's 2.0 control or his abilities.
Putin made him look like a fool, with a petit télégraphiste vibe (VGE-era reference about the Afghan war and Brezhnev)yet he benefits.
He does not campaign and barely registered his candidate status, by letter, without any public statement.
Mélenchon, the pro-Putin islamo-leftist, gives a stern warning, were he elected president and France attacked, by promising a "cruel and devastating retaliation" to whomever would dare it.
https://rmc.bfmtv.com/actualites/politique/jean-luc-melenchon-promet-une-replique-foudroyante-et-cruelle-si-la-france-est-attaquee_AV-202203100299.html (https://rmc.bfmtv.com/actualites/politique/jean-luc-melenchon-promet-une-replique-foudroyante-et-cruelle-si-la-france-est-attaquee_AV-202203100299.html)
:lol:
https://twitter.com/GG_RMC/status/1501866889479344138?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw%7Ctwcamp%5Etweetembed%7Ctwterm%5E1501866889479344138%7Ctwgr%5E%7Ctwcon%5Es1_&ref_url=https%3A%2F%2Frmc.bfmtv.com%2Factualites%2Fpolitique%2Fjean-luc-melenchon-promet-une-replique-foudroyante-et-cruelle-si-la-france-est-attaquee_AV-202203100299.html (https://twitter.com/GG_RMC/status/1501866889479344138?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw%7Ctwcamp%5Etweetembed%7Ctwterm%5E1501866889479344138%7Ctwgr%5E%7Ctwcon%5Es1_&ref_url=https%3A%2F%2Frmc.bfmtv.com%2Factualites%2Fpolitique%2Fjean-luc-melenchon-promet-une-replique-foudroyante-et-cruelle-si-la-france-est-attaquee_AV-202203100299.html)
It was during a show called les Grandes Gueules "the Big Mouths". :P Sounds appropriate.
Quote from: Duque de Bragança on March 11, 2022, 09:27:16 AMMélenchon, the pro-Putin islamo-leftist, gives a stern warning, were he elected president and France attacked, by promising a "cruel and devastating retaliation" to whomever would dare it.
Makes sense. France has so many enemies nowadays, attacks could be coming from anywhere. ;)
For the non-francophones, tt's more about Mélenchon's delusions of grandeur, paranoia plus anti-EU/US/NATO stance than anything else:
QuoteQue ferait Jean-Luc Mélenchon à L'Elysée en cas d'attaque contre la France ? Sa réponse a été très directe dans "Les Grandes Gueules" ce jeudi sur RMC et RMC Story. "La France se défendra toute seule. Elle a une armée complète. Gare à qui s'en prendrait à nous, si c'est moi qui dirige ce pays, a prévenu le candidat à la présidentielle. La réplique sera foudroyante et cruelle. Si on attaque les frontières de la France, oui, la réplique sera militaire et terrible. Elle sera ce qu'elle doit être."
"François Mitterrand, on lui avait dit : 'C'est quoi la dissuasion ?'. Il avait répondu : 'C'est moi'. Ça veut dire : 'Si vous avez peur de moi, vous aurez peur du reste'. Alors, peur de moi, ça s'est garanti", a ajouté Jean-Luc Mélenchon.
Plus, some statement about the value of Europe according to him:
Quote"Le président de l'Union européenne en ce moment, c'est monsieur Macron. Apparemment, il téléphone sans arrêt. Le mec, il rejoue la scène des fusées à Cuba. Il fait Kennedy, avec le téléphone... Il n'arrête pas de téléphoner paraît-il, il discute, on ne sait pas de quoi, et à la sortie où vont discuter les gens? En Turquie. C'est un échec, une déroute totale. L'Europe est hors-jeu, l'Europe est ridicule", selon Jean-Luc Mélenchon.
He somewhat recognizes, implicitly perhaps unwillingly Turkey is not (in) Europe. :P
QuotePour le député des Bouches-du-Rhône, "il faut arrêter avec la mentalité de la guerre froide". "La page est tournée depuis 1991, on est dans un autre monde, explique-t-il. Et dans cet autre monde, on continue à se comporter comme dans la période de la guerre froide et ça donne des catastrophes parce que vous menacez Vladimir Poutine, qui ensuite prend des décisions qui sont irréversibles."
No to the Cold War mentality, stop threatening Putin who then is "forced" (implied not stated for the non-francophones) to takes drastic and irreversible steps.
Quote"La géopolitique, c'est dans le temps long, ce n'est pas dans les cinq minutes d'une émission télé, ajoute Jean-Luc Mélenchon. Ça prend du temps. Mais par exemple en ce moment, les Etats-Unis sont en train de menacer la Chine. Attendez-vous à ce qu'un jour ou l'autre, les Chinois aient une mauvaise réaction. Il faut arrêter de considérer que nous avons vocation à dominer le monde et que les autres ont vocation à faire ce qu'on leur dit."
The US is threatening China as well, according to him, so expect trouble or bad reaction from the Chinese, sooner or later.
Then some rambling about how "we" (the West I suppose) should stop to try to dominate the world and tell others what to do.
So for Macron supposidely being so unpopular he sure has a really healthy lead in the polls.
I'm seeing a over 90% chance of winning the election.
Quote from: Josquius on March 13, 2022, 05:40:25 AMSo for Macron supposidely being so unpopular he sure has a really healthy lead in the polls.
I'm seeing a over 90% chance of winning the election.
Easy, people are far from enthusiastic over it but are resigned.
Sad news for Sheilbh, one of the historical Trots died, aged 80.
QuoteAlain Krivine, figure historique de la gauche radicale, est mort
Alain Krivine
Alain Krivine BRUNO FERT POUR «LE MONDE»
Alain Krivine est mort samedi, à Paris, à l'âge de 80 ans, a appris Le Monde auprès de sa famille. « Je t'entends encore dire que la plus belle manière de célébrer la mémoire des disparus est de perpétuer leur combat. (...) Le faire sans toi n'aura plus jamais la même saveur », a regretté Olivier Besancenot, qui milita à la Ligue communiste révolutionnaire (LCR) puis au Nouveau Parti anticapitaliste (NPA) aux côtés de M. Krivine.
Né le 10 juillet 1941 à Paris, Alain Krivine était issu d'une famille de juifs ukrainiens émigrés en France après les pogroms antisémites de la fin du XIXe siècle. Biberonné comme ses frères aux mouvements étudiants communistes, il était l'un des fondateurs, en 1966, de la Jeunesse communiste révolutionnaire (JCR), et devient l'une des figures de Mai-68, aux côtés de Daniel Cohn-Bendit, Jacques Sauvageot et Alain Geismar.
Lire aussi Alain Krivine, figure historique de la gauche radicale, est mort
Son activisme lui vaut alors d'être emprisonné un mois à la Santé et entraîne la dissolution de la JCR. Il est ensuite désigné par la Ligue communiste, fraîchement créée, comme candidat à l'élection présidentielle de 1969. Un an après Mai 68, la France entière découvre donc Krivine, cheveux frisés, lunettes sur le nez, et son programme : détruire l'ordre capitaliste et redistribuer les richesses. Il n'obtient que 1,06 % des suffrages.
Le NPA a salué sa mémoire par un communiqué : « Jusqu'à la fin de sa vie, Alain n'aura rien lâché et n'aura pas cédé à la pression du "ça te passera avec l'âge" », et annoncé des hommages à venir dans les jours qui viennent. « Salut, vieux, et merci pour tout. On continue le combat ! », a promis le parti.
Quote from: Josquius on March 13, 2022, 05:40:25 AMSo for Macron supposidely being so unpopular he sure has a really healthy lead in the polls.
I'm seeing a over 90% chance of winning the election.
Duque may not speak for all of France...or the rest of the candidates may just really suck.
Quote from: Valmy on March 13, 2022, 05:33:30 PMDuque may not speak for all of France...
Indeed. I may not speak for the very rich who love Macron (remember the "puissances de l'argent" by you know whom?) :P Flanby 2.0, Rotschild banker, brought in as finance minister by Flanby, self-proclaimed and styled enemy of (High) Finfance. :D
Macro(n) infamously known for his classism in France, disparaging criticisms of the common folk, something Anglos on Languish seem to conveniently ignore.
Such as unemployed people,if they are jobless that's because they are all illiterate, drunkards or need just to cross a street to find a job. :lol:
It's true Macron has contradicted himself more often than not, saying in FRENCH "there is not a French culture" now embracing his statuts of defender of France and its previously non-existing in a dangerous world, "colonisation = crime against humanity" then criticising the Algerian régime for instrumentalising a very biased version of History to make up for their corruption and incompe
Conservative/Old money/upper middle bourgeoisie might not love him very much but since he protects their interests, they won't really oppose him, except for the really opinionated. OTOH,
nouveaux riches love him, to be fair.
The Banlieue unassimilated/problematic crowd might despise him for not so good reasons but is scared to death by Marine or Zemmour, so will unanimously vote for him in the run-off, that is if they vote at all. Won't happen for the first round and legislatives given their low political culture and interest in French politics beyond Identity Politics.
Quoteor the rest of the candidates may just really suck.
Maquereau sucks as well, so it's not just who sucks the most but the context.
Following the yellow vest movement, due to some pathetic green-washing of a diesel and gasoline tax increase, and its radicalisation of the remnants (some bad police work motivated by incompetence at the high levels hello Castaner former interior management), Flanby 2.0 hit record lows, surpassing Flanby. Not to forget Flanby 2.0 was elected by default.
So after a disastrous pandemic crisis management, "life must go on" one week before the lockdow, "useless masks", so authorities can make stocks, by the idiot mouthpiece in chief (la Si bête euh Sibeth), last mask factory closed to save money, mask production delocalised to China of all places, early very bad organisation of the vaccination campaign.
Eventually, vaccine roll-out combined with stupid anti-vaccine people unwillingly played right into his hand with a hysterical and conspiracy-minded opposition to health/vaccine pass linked to rights (yes citizens have rights but also duties), plus some international crises e.g Eastern Med between Greece and Turkey where even Marine and Zemmour supported him, not Merluchon though AFAIK (Grey Wolves were eventually declared illegal in France!) plus the current war in Ukraine gave him a rally behind the flag wave. Putinolatry by Marine, Zemmour and Merluchon did not help. If Marine quickly reneged it, Zemmour did not do it so well, with Mélenchon still managing to blame the US, NATO and EU for the war and only then, at best, Putin's Russia.
But then Mélenchon does not seem to suffer much from it, his pro-full immigration stance does not encompass central and Eastern Europeans, even as refugees (a missed opportunity by Zemmour to sound more appealing btw).
By the way, remember Macro's line about the braindead state of NATO? Another "victim" of Putin's folly.
:P
Not to mention Pécresse, the only one who could beat him in the run-off is plagued by a party full of double-dealing crypto-macronolâtres, may not the best campaigner out there but then Macron hardly was (ridiculous at times with his shouting up to voice breaking) and does not campaign and yet does not need for now. To be fair, she left a LR party in disarray for a while and came back so she is not exactly beyond blame.
Mélenchon is now third, ahead of her.
"Mélenchon, the pro-Putin islamo-leftist"
I understand what pro-Putin means. But what is an islamo-leftist?
Quote from: crazy canuck on March 14, 2022, 01:26:05 PM"Mélenchon, the pro-Putin islamo-leftist"
I understand what pro-Putin means. But what is an islamo-leftist?
My understanding is that it's meant to signify leftists who embrace multiculturalism in such away as to include religious muslims, while attacking and undermining traditional Western values and social norms.
Quote from: Jacob on March 14, 2022, 01:48:04 PMQuote from: crazy canuck on March 14, 2022, 01:26:05 PM"Mélenchon, the pro-Putin islamo-leftist"
I understand what pro-Putin means. But what is an islamo-leftist?
My understanding is that it's meant to signify leftists who embrace multiculturalism in such away as to include religious muslims, while attacking and undermining traditional Western values and social norms.
Nope. It's just a collusion of leftists and islamists. Leftists think the ultra-reactionary (more than the so-called) traditional Western values islamists can do their bidding, electorally speaking, by taking pro-islamist/muslim stances (difference is hard to make at times).
Officially, Mélenchon is not multi-culturalist and claims some adherence to the French Revolution. In practice, well think of Putin who projects an Orthodox persona abroad but is very keen of islamists at home Russia/Chechnya as long as they obey. Muslims being way more reactionary in general also helps. At the price of constant –islamic– immigration, something Navalny pointed out and got him into trouble by well-meaning but ignorant multiculturalist people in the West.
It's not a coherent ideology of islamic socialism/commmunism. Forget about the Islamic Commune of Paris, or rather Marseille for Mélenchon, this would entail secularisation or rather laïcité of some sort of which is just islamists don't want to hear about.
PS : for some reason, the pro-Putin positioning of Mélenchon has not had any adverse effect on him yet.
Follow up question - what is a pro-Islamist/Muslim stance in the context of French politics? That seems to be the thing that determines the definition - although I am still not sure where the "leftist" adjective fits in?
Quote from: crazy canuck on March 14, 2022, 03:40:50 PMFollow up question - what is a pro-Islamist/Muslim stance in the context of French politics? That seems to be the thing that determines the definition - although I am still not sure where the "leftist" adjective fits in?
It's a thing that everyone from Macron to the far-right has been talking about "Islamo-leftism" in France's culture wars. It basically includes sports clubs for Muslim kids (literally that's a video that was promoted by the French Ministry of Education as an example of "Islamist separatism", anyone who wears a headscarf (again, literally - France has twice complained to the EU for using an image of a woman in a headscarf on publicity materials as promoting Islamism) or just vanilla Anglo-Saxon style multi-culturalism.
To me it just has worrying echoes of Judeo-Bolshevism - especially given the wider global context of Islamophobia with Trump, Modi and Xi. I think Macron's Education Minister has set up a thinktank to monitor universities for "Islamo-leftism" and also try to police the boundaries of what is academic inquiry and what is activism and opinion. Being close to America I'm sure you can hear the echoes. Having said all that - of all the candidates who can get to the second round Macron is miles ahead of any of the others and on some other subjects (Europe, the economy) genuinely impressive.
So beyond Galloway style we both hate Israel-friends? Crap and into full on lunacy then.
Quote from: Sheilbh on March 14, 2022, 04:56:26 PMTo me it just has worrying echoes of Judeo-Bolshevism - especially given the wider global context of Islamophobia with Trump, Modi and Xi. I think Macron's Education Minister has set up a thinktank to monitor universities for "Islamo-leftism" and also try to police the boundaries of what is academic inquiry and what is activism and opinion. Being close to America I'm sure you can hear the echoes. Having said all that - of all the candidates who can get to the second round Macron is miles ahead of any of the others and on some other subjects (Europe, the economy) genuinely impressive.
Sounds like Great Replacement BS.
Quote from: Razgovory on March 14, 2022, 05:09:04 PMSounds like Great Replacement BS.
"Great Replacement" as a theory started in France, but has now made inroads into the mainstream right. Pecresse has used the phrase as well as Zemmour: "in ten years time [...] will we be a sovereign nation, a U.S. satellite or a Chinese trading post? Will we be unified or divided? Nothing is written, whether it's loss of economic status, or the Great Replacement." She also had the line about the "French of the heart" against "paper Frenchmen" (again an echo of anti-semitic slurs in the 19th and early 20th century).
In one worrying poll I saw about 60% either certainly or probably thought it was happening in France.
Ironically although some in Le Pen's party have embraced, I think she's explicitly said it's a conspiracy theory.
Quote from: crazy canuck on March 14, 2022, 03:40:50 PMFollow up question - what is a pro-Islamist/Muslim stance in the context of French politics? That seems to be the thing that determines the definition - although I am still not sure where the "leftist" adjective fits in?
Mélenchon only has 2 Trots to his left in this election, and they are far from their heydays (4-5% each now more like 1-2%). One of the trotskyite party started the islamo-leftist trend but it backfired spectacularly, the other is more "orthodox" (no pun intended) in their trotskyism so they stay marginal.
Historically, the French left has always been very suspicious of religion influence if not outright anticlerical. Nowadays, anticlericalism only seems to work against Catholics and Protestants, sometimes, the latter being far fewer (tainted by a possible mix-up with US-style evangelical protestants).
Mélenchon follows perfectly that trend. There are exceptions, such as Charlie Hebdo, of course.
Also, previously assimilation was a left-wing position, deemed progressice since open to all, nowadays the post-modern left is no longer for it since it goes against multiculturalism in general and Islam in particular.
Quote from: Razgovory on March 14, 2022, 05:09:04 PMSounds like Great Replacement BS.
it's not because it's not done on purpuse that a "great replacement" doesn't take place. Ask the american natives or the australian aborinigals about it. They got replaced into marginality.
Simple fact is that the populations of the western european countries are still rising, but that the aboriginals of those countries haven't been getting sufficient children to be above or on replacement levels in decades. It is equally so that the big generations (babyboomers and before) are now dying off. Not that fast but the speed will increase.
Then it's logical to conclude that the population increase is mainly done by migration. Immigrants are by their very definition not aboriginals. Once a majority of the inhabitants are no longer of aboriginal stock you can say the replacement is complete.
If your lucky the newcomers assimilate easily, or even a bit less easily, but they still assimilate. If you're unlucky you get large communities of cultures that have zero desire to fit in, and are potentially outright hostile to the receiving society.
And it's not because this has happened all over the world, all throughout history, that you can tell the people being replaced that they have to like it or support it.
Quote from: Crazy_Ivan80 on March 15, 2022, 02:58:36 PMit's not because it's not done on purpuse that a "great replacement" doesn't take place. Ask the american natives or the australian aborinigals about it. They got replaced into marginality.
Simple fact is that the populations of the western european countries are still rising, but that the aboriginals of those countries haven't been getting sufficient children to be above or on replacement levels in decades. It is equally so that the big generations (babyboomers and before) are now dying off. Not that fast but the speed will increase.
Then it's logical to conclude that the population increase is mainly done by migration. Immigrants are by their very definition not aboriginals. Once a majority of the inhabitants are no longer of aboriginal stock you can say the replacement is complete.
If your lucky the newcomers assimilate easily, or even a bit less easily, but they still assimilate. If you're unlucky you get large communities of cultures that have zero desire to fit in, and are potentially outright hostile to the receiving society.
And it's not because this has happened all over the world, all throughout history, that you can tell the people being replaced that they have to like it or support it.
I mean it could be worse. In Eastern Europe not only are they not replacing themselves, the kids are moving west.
But even the migrant thing is only a temporary solution. Birth rates are falling rapidly everywhere.
But if we were moving to North America and living among the indigenous nations I bet they wouldn't have been replaced into marginality. They were moved by force onto the margins even when they were still the majority.
The replacement BS theory has been debunked 1000 times. The fact that Pecresse uses it as a dog whistle was to be predicted as she's not relevant.
I think it's time to do away with the French presidential system and have a 6th Republic.
Quote from: Crazy_Ivan80 on March 15, 2022, 02:58:36 PMQuote from: Razgovory on March 14, 2022, 05:09:04 PMSounds like Great Replacement BS.
it's not because it's not done on purpuse that a "great replacement" doesn't take place. Ask the american natives or the australian aborinigals about it. They got replaced into marginality.
Simple fact is that the populations of the western european countries are still rising, but that the aboriginals of those countries haven't been getting sufficient children to be above or on replacement levels in decades. It is equally so that the big generations (babyboomers and before) are now dying off. Not that fast but the speed will increase.
Then it's logical to conclude that the population increase is mainly done by migration. Immigrants are by their very definition not aboriginals. Once a majority of the inhabitants are no longer of aboriginal stock you can say the replacement is complete.
If your lucky the newcomers assimilate easily, or even a bit less easily, but they still assimilate. If you're unlucky you get large communities of cultures that have zero desire to fit in, and are potentially outright hostile to the receiving society.
And it's not because this has happened all over the world, all throughout history, that you can tell the people being replaced that they have to like it or support it.
The indigenous peoples of Americas didn't have immigrants. They didn't even have states. They were simply invaded. So that's a false analogy. In the US, we've had people claim that immigrants would replace everyone for 200 years. Still hasn't happened.
The native American analogy for modern immigration is broken on so many levels.
and yet the natives still got replaced. It's irrelevant in what manner it happened as migration does not have to happen peacefully.
replacement is replacement.
Quote from: Crazy_Ivan80 on March 19, 2022, 03:13:09 AMand yet the natives still got replaced. It's irrelevant in what manner it happened as migration does not have to happen peacefully.
replacement is replacement.
And when Henry VIII divorced two of his wives he chopped off their heads. Execution is execution.
It'd be insanity to suggest this is a normal part of divorce proceedings.
Very few people in Europe are entirely 'indigenous'. People have been moving around and mixing since there was multiple groups of people to move around and mix. Gauls, Romans, Franks, Norse, French.... all different yet all the same.
Replacement is such an odd concept. We all get replaced by the generations that come after us.
It looks like it'll be Macron-Le Pen for sure, though Melenchon is surging so there's someone on the left at least.
In part, perhaps because Zemmour has fully ripped off the mask with his line on "remigration" (deportation) - also "Generation Z" is one of the most accidentally unfortunate political branding I can think of :lol:
Also, however, I suspect the shift to cost of living is something that more naturally fits Melenchon and Le Pen than Zemmour. Both are historically very warm towards Putin too which adds another element.
But with Le Pen starting to surge, attention focusing on cost of living/inflation and likely low turnout/reported high levels of abstentions from the left, the second round polling is a lot tighter than I'd like (poll of polls is still floating around 45/55):
(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FPG8AyHXoAITU1B?format=jpg&name=small)
It's still very likely that Macron will win, but it feels like we're increasingly moving towards "accidents can happen" territory as in 2016. I think one particular challenge for Macron is that if issues focus on cost of living/inflation, which seems likely over the next month, in the past he's not been great at responding to concerns on those issues or with those voters. It feels like that needs to be his focus for the next four weeks.
Quote from: Sheilbh on March 30, 2022, 11:31:04 AMIt looks like it'll be Macron-Le Pen for sure, though Melenchon is surging so there's someone on the left at least.
In part, perhaps because Zemmour has fully ripped off the mask with his line on "remigration" (deportation) - also "Generation Z" is one of the most accidentally unfortunate political branding I can think of :lol:
False friend,
déportation in French does not have the same meaning as in English :contract:
Expulsion is perfectly legal in French law, though it has been restricted, which results in more crimes, up to, but not just terrorism.
OTOH, the correct word would be réémigration, something pointed out by people way more on the right than him (coucou Henry de Lesquen !).
Plus Génération Z is more reminiscent of Zorro (not the original Portuguese meaning) than anything else for Zemmour's Generation.
The problem for Zemmour is his (former?) putinolatry, shared by Mélenchon and Marine, but then Marine quickly repudiated (seemingly) while this is not a problem for Mélenchon.
It really broke his campaign.
Anglos seeing French politics and culture through a very limited grasp of French. :lol: :frog:
Meanwhile, mainstream media not on the right, so everything but le Figaro, report and praise Macron's nervous attempt at humour claiming that Zemmour is handicapped by being deaf, but object when Zemmour did the same to the leftist apparatchik Mélenchon. :hmm:
One last less serious bad news for Zemmour :
since Algeria missed the qualification for the Wahhabi World Cup, no Algerian "celebrations" in French streets i.e riots or burned cars, just before the elections.
Usually, any victory meant trouble, sometimes even defeats, be it in Barbès-Rochechouart (strong maghrebi presence in this Parisian neighborhood) or even the Champs-Élysées, the official site for football celebrations by fans in Paris, among other things. For some reason, there is always trouble when the Algerian football team is involved.
Same goes for Marseille and other cities.
:tinfoil:
Quote from: Duque de Bragança on March 30, 2022, 11:54:09 AMFalse friend, déportation in French does not have the same meaning as in English :contract:
I thought he was calling it "remigration" - I'm saying if you strip away the bullshit and pretence around that what he means is deportation, as in the English word.
QuotePlus Génération Z is more reminiscent of Zorro (not the original Portuguese meaning) than anything else for Zemmour's Generation.
What's this relevant to? My point is things have happened in the world since he launched his campaign that means "Generation Z" is a more problematic slogan.
Quote from: Sheilbh on March 30, 2022, 12:02:08 PMQuote from: Duque de Bragança on March 30, 2022, 11:54:09 AMFalse friend, déportation in French does not have the same meaning as in English :contract:
I thought he was calling it "remigration" - I'm saying if you strip away the bullshit and pretence around that what he means is deportation, as in the English word.
QED
Deportation in the English sense is legal in the UK, US and plenty of other countries. It's somewhat restricted in France thanks to Sarkozy :rolleyes:
Zemmour wants a return to the earlier situation plus some incentives for repatriation of unassimilable immigrants, à la Giscard (10 000 FF in the '70s for voluntary returns which backfired btw), along with changes about citizenship laws (less jus soli more jus sanguinis).
QuotePlus Génération Z is more reminiscent of Zorro (not the original Portuguese meaning) than anything else for Zemmour's Generation.
QuoteWhat's this relevant to? My point is things have happened in the world since he launched his campaign that means "Generation Z" is a more problematic slogan.
That Putin used a latin alphabet letter for some obscure reason does not mean it can not be used anymore in the French language and politics.
Only ignorant Anglos, totally hopeless in foreign languages, can come up with such a non sequitur. :lol:
https://livre.fnac.com/a3399971/Eric-Zemmour-Z-comme-Zemmour (https://livre.fnac.com/a3399971/Eric-Zemmour-Z-comme-Zemmour)
A Zemmour book, from ten years ago.
Besides, it's Zemmour not ЗЕМУР. Mélenchon, the primus inter pares of poutinolâtres would be harder to transliterate, not to mention nasals do not exist in Russian and are not contemplated in cyrilic. Marine (Marina?° is fine for that though. :P
Pécresse is a real disappointment however. The one that could beat Macro in the run-off. :(
https://www.reuters.com/article/france-mckinsey-senate-idUSL5N2VS3MS (https://www.reuters.com/article/france-mckinsey-senate-idUSL5N2VS3MS)
A real scandal, but it does not seem to interest you that much, since your boy Macro is involved. :P
QuoteFrench Senate accuses McKinsey exec of false testimony in tax hearing
By Reuters Staff
2 MIN READ
March 25 (Reuters) - The French Senate said on Friday it was launching legal action concerning U.S. management consultancy McKinsey, suspecting an executive of giving false testimony when he told senators the company was paying corporate taxes in France.
The controversy comes as rivals of President Emmanuel Macron, less than three weeks ahead of the presidential election, accuse the government of lavishly spending taxpayers' money on international consultancies during its term.
The Senate said that a French executive in January told a hearing: "I say it very clearly: We pay corporate taxes in France and all our salaries are registered in a company under French law which pays its taxes in France."
The Senate said in a statement on Friday it has taken "legal action on suspicion of false testimony before the inquiry's committee".
Macron's government has been accused of paying millions for advice on what was criticised as a slow rollout of COVID-19 vaccines.
According to a Senate report published last week, French ministries have more than doubled spending on advisers from 379 million euros ($417 million) in 2018 to 894 million euros last year.
The report also found that McKinsey, which has been present in France since 1964 and has its office on Paris' prestigious Champs-Elysees, had not paid corporate taxes in the country over the last ten years.
McKinsey did not comment when contacted by Reuters, referring back to a previous statement that said its French arm had paid out 422 million euros ($465 million) in taxes and social charges from 2011 to 2020, without specifying whether that included corporate taxes.
False testimony before an inquiry committee, or perjury, is liable to five years imprisonment and a fine of 75,000 euros. ($1 = 0.9083 euros) (Reporting by Tassilo Hummel and Sarah Morland; Editing by Nick Macfie)
Quote from: Duque de Bragança on March 30, 2022, 12:15:34 PMQED
Deportation in the English sense is legal in the UK, US and plenty of other countries. It's somewhat restricted in France thanks to Sarkozy :rolleyes:
Zemmour wants a return to the earlier situation plus some incentives for repatriation of unassimilable immigrants, à la Giscard (10 000 FF in the '70s for voluntary returns which backfired btw), along with changes about citizenship laws (less jus soli more jus sanguinis).
At least 100,000 a year: "au moins 100,000 renvois par an". He's promised to reach a million within his first five years - organised apparently with the cooperation of Algeria, Morocco and Tunisia. It's the "remigration of the people we no longer want" or when someone comes into your home and is aggressive to you "you kick them out" and send them "home".
As I say I think the mask is off.
QuoteThat Putin used a latin alphabet letter for some obscure reason does not mean it can not be used anymore in the French language and politics.
Only ignorant Anglos, totally hopeless in foreign languages, can come up with such a non sequitur. :lol:
I think you're still missing my point or choosing to.
Although as I say none of this matters because he's flaming out - though still concerning that a candidate like that is polling around 10-15%. What matters are Le Pen, Melenchon and Macron.
QuoteA real scandal, but it does not seem to interest you that much, since your boy Macro is involved. :P
Yes. The one consistent theme in my posts is definitely that I'm a Macron enthusiast :blink:
Quote from: Sheilbh on March 30, 2022, 12:28:25 PMAs I say I think the mask is off.
:secret:
Just because you say it does not mean it is true. Argument by assertion and all that jazz.
Zemmour stated a long time ago he was not in favour of unassimilable immigration. Haram for multiculturalists of course.
QuoteYes. The one consistent theme in my posts is definitely that I'm a Macron enthusiast :blink:
Burning the golden veal? :D
Too late.
Given the choice between Zemmour/Marine or even Mélenchon vs Macro, it' fair to say your choice has been made a long time ago. :P
So has yours.
Duque - Sheilbh is saying "reimgration" = [english definition] of deportation. It is not a non-sequiteur, it's saying aiming to [english definition] deport 100,000 - 1 million people is showing what Zemmour is all about, it shows his true colours. Whatever "deportation" means in French is irrelevant to Sheilbh's point. The fact that other countries also deport people isn't relevant either... even if those other countries deported the massive numbers Zemmour says he wants to deport.
Quote from: Oexmelin on March 30, 2022, 12:31:41 PMSo has yours.
You mean for Pécresse? Yeah, anything but Maquereau (some very right-wing people I know would even Mélenchon in the presidential election, not legislative).
Unfortunately, she is not going to make it to the run-off (I will be gladly proven wrong).
Quote from: Jacob on March 30, 2022, 12:36:02 PMDuque - Sheilbh is saying "reimgration" = [english definition] of deportation. It is not a non-sequiteur, it's saying aiming to [english definition] deport 100,000 - 1 million people is showing what Zemmour is all about, it shows his true colours. Whatever "deportation" means in French is irrelevant to Sheilbh's point. The fact that other countries also deport people isn't relevant either... even if those other countries deported the massive numbers Zemmour says he wants to deport.
First 100,000 then 1 million? Going populist i.e demagog on us à la Macron/Zemmour/Marine/Mélenchon with inflating numbers ?
Even Pécresse wants to rise the number of criminals being sent back to their country of origin (double peine).
Quote from: Oexmelin on March 30, 2022, 12:31:41 PMSo has yours.
To be fair to Duque, he's been quite open about his values for quite a long time.
Quote from: Duque de Bragança on March 30, 2022, 12:38:37 PMFirst 100,000 then 1 million? Going populist i.e demagog on us à la Macron/Zemmour/Marine/Mélenchon with inflating numbers ?
?
I'm going with what Sheilbh said. That Zemmour wants to deport a minimum of 100,000 year, and promised to reach 1 million within the first five years. Is that inaccurate?
A source on his statement of 1 million as an aim - with Le Pen (of all people) condemning it as "anti-Republican":
https://www.lefigaro.fr/elections/presidentielles/un-concept-injuste-et-antirepublicain-marine-le-pen-raille-la-remigration-promue-par-eric-zemmour-20220322
I don't think there's any inconsistency with saying at least 100,000 a year but an aim of 1 million over five years.
Quote from: Sheilbh on March 30, 2022, 12:43:08 PMA source on his statement of 1 million as an aim - with Le Pen (of all people) condemning it as "anti-Republican":
https://www.lefigaro.fr/elections/presidentielles/un-concept-injuste-et-antirepublicain-marine-le-pen-raille-la-remigration-promue-par-eric-zemmour-20220322
I don't think there's any inconsistency with saying at least 100,000 a year but an aim of 1 million over five years.
I thought I was a Le Pen supporter, according to Oexmelin and Jacob (traumatised by the social-democrats going realistic on immigration in Denmark or what?) anyways, so basically I disagree with both Zemmour and Marine leaving me with whom? Pécresse or Macro? :hmm: Make up our mind.
Plus, it's still an electoral promise, something which does not carry much weight and will be quietly discarded in favour of return to good ol'
double peine.Zemmour has a history of being more moderate in his books and sometimes throwing a provocative concept on TV as the polemist he is, hence why I am not triggered by the figure.
PS : having you quoting Marine a a moderate, granting her a de facto republican satisfecit is hilarious. :lol:
Quote from: Duque de Bragança on March 30, 2022, 12:52:02 PMI thought I was a Le Pen supporter, according to Oexmelin and you anyways, so basically I disagree with both Zemmour and Marine leaving me with whom? Pécresse or Macro? :hmm: Make up our mind.
I don't think Sheilbh was talking about you at all :hmm:
QuotePlus, it's still an electoral promise, something which does not carry much weight and will be quietly discarded in favour of return to good ol' double peine.
Zemmour has a history of being more moderate in his books and sometimes throwing a provocative concept as the polemist he is, hence why I am not triggered by the figure.
Would you object to the figure if you believed it was a real statement of intent?
Quote from: Jacob on March 30, 2022, 12:39:21 PMTo be fair to Duque, he's been quite open about his values for quite a long time.
Quite open? Duque is constantly equivocating about his support for the far right ("too late, sorry!"), and just oversaturates his posts with so much oblique references, ellipses, fake irony, ultra-specific points about French politics using nicknames borrowed from the French press (sometimes from years ago) that I doubt people here really understand what his values are.
Quote from: Jacob on March 30, 2022, 12:54:38 PMI don't think Sheilbh was talking about you at all :hmm:
Given that I am active a lot in this thread and he replied to my posts in this matter I find it hard to believe. Not to mention he does not to like to be reminded of his de facto support of "Jupiter".
QuotePlus, it's still an electoral promise, something which does not carry much weight and will be quietly discarded in favour of return to good ol' double peine.
Zemmour has a history of being more moderate in his books and sometimes throwing a provocative concept as the polemist he is, hence why I am not triggered by the figure.
QuoteWould you object to the figure if you believed it was a real statement of intent?
I'd rather object about real issues, e.g putinolatry, the reason why he is not going to make it to the run-off.
Return to
double peine, ending lax enforcement of
expulsion sentences is nothing special in my book. Your kilometrage may vary of course but is hardly relevant to the French context.
Quote from: Oexmelin on March 30, 2022, 01:00:17 PMQuote from: Jacob on March 30, 2022, 12:39:21 PMTo be fair to Duque, he's been quite open about his values for quite a long time.
Quite open? Duque is constantly equivocating about his support for the far right ("too late, sorry!"), and just oversaturates his posts with so much oblique references, ellipses, fake irony, ultra-specific points about French politics using nicknames borrowed from the French press (sometimes from years ago) that I doubt people here really understand what his values are.
Years ago? Still in common use, since you are a Francophone you don't have the Anglo excuse of being ignorant.
Yes, even Flanby.
I am no longer a crypto-Marine supporter ?!
Make up your mind, dammit.
PS:" far-right" (Sarkozy ? Pécresse ? )support dog whistling duly noted but not enough, sorry.
https://www.lefigaro.fr/elections/presidentielles/un-concept-injuste-et-antirepublicain-marine-le-pen-raille-la-remigration-promue-par-eric-zemmour-20220322 (https://www.lefigaro.fr/elections/presidentielles/un-concept-injuste-et-antirepublicain-marine-le-pen-raille-la-remigration-promue-par-eric-zemmour-20220322)
QuoteJ'ai toujours été en désaccord profond avec ce concept. Il semblerait qu'il ait évolué avec ce que propose Éric Zemmour, et je ne sais pas quel périmètre il lui donne aujourd'hui, pointe l'impétrante du RN. Mais je sais ce qu'il contenait quand ce concept a été créé.»
So basically Marine criticises a concept used by Zemmour without exactly knowing what he is talking about. A bit à la some people on Languish, and/or Macro(n), take your pick. :P
QuoteInvitée mardi soir de l'émission La France dans les Yeux sur BFMTV, la prétendante nationaliste y voit «un concept profondément injuste». «Je sais très bien d'où vient ce concept. C'est un concept qui a été créé par quelqu'un qui s'appelle Jean-Yves Le Gallou (ancienne personnalité du FN). L'idée qu'il prônait était de supprimer la nationalité française à des gens qui l'avaient déjà obtenue. Soit par naturalisation, soit en vertu du droit du sol», a d'abord développé Marine Le Pen. Et ce, «de manière globale et générale. Nonobstant le comportement individuel de chacun, qui peut entraîner la déchéance de nationalité qui peut être parfaitement justifiée.»
Quick reminder of the origin of the concept according to her. I still think it's more Lesquen, possibly watered down since Lesquen does not really believe in assimilation unlike Zemmour.
By the way, it's also a potshot at the old FN, i.e his father. Why I am not surprised. At least, her niece who went over to Zemmour is not included.
QuoteInterrogée sur le «racisme» de cette notion, Marine Le Pen botte en touche : «Je ne suis pas sûre que cela ait un rapport avec la race. Mais c'est surtout totalement antirépublicain». Si elle avait été au pouvoir, la députée du Pas-de-Calais l'affirme: elle «n'aurait pas donné la nationalité française à un certain nombre de personnes qui l'ont obtenu automatiquement» mais «la loi a fait qu'ils ont obtenu la nationalité française.»
Marine says now she is not sure it's "racist" but says it's anti-republic (against the values of the French republic).
OTOH, she states she would have not given French IDs so liberally.
QuoteÀ LIRE AUSSI Réfugiés ukrainiens: le mea culpa de Zemmour
A bit late for Zemmour, a huge faux pas or at the very least a blunder, given his voters were not opposed to it.
QuoteÉlue, celle qui se présente pour la troisième fois promet que ces Français la «garderont» : «Moi je respecte l'État de droit. Les gens qui ont obtenu la nationalité française, y compris sur des critères que je conteste, ils sont des Français à part entière.» En somme, la prétendante du RN refusera l'instauration de tout ministère de la remigration ou même de «l'immigration», comme cela avait été le cas au début de la présidence de Nicolas Sarkozy en 2007. Une différence entretenue avec Éric Zemmour qui l'amène à vouloir piloter sa politique migratoire via le ministère de l'Intérieur.
So basically, not even a return to "far-right" (by Œxmelin's criteria) Sarkozy, who had a ministry of immigration (not r(é)emigration). Double peine being restricted not counting for some unexplained reason.
Well, that's pretty moderate. Some will argue she needs to be or appear more moderate than Zemmour in order to get to the run-off. She can always change her mind like a good demagog as Macron, obviously. :P
Yes, years ago. People on Languish don't read the French press, and I am willing to bet most people on Languish just give up deciphering your points, trying to remember who Flamby is and who your version of Flamby 2.0 may be (and what it actually refers to in your mind), as well as trying to figure out what is irony, and what isn't. Kudos to Sheilbh for attempting to engage.
You will of course forgive me if I don't especially harbor the desire to meet your approval for what is being "enough" or "adequate" or "appropriate" marker of politics, considering you never show that much scruples yourself when it comes to others.
Let's say it's Le Pen vs Macron for the 2nd round.
Who would you vote for Duque?
Hmm. Globally, yes, but the nations were individually dealt with, once they were in minority, due to disease or open warfare. Apaches weren't subdued at the same time as the Hurons were. It's difficult to trace a specific parallel.
However, unrestricted immigration can lead to a replacement of the values and the culture of a specific theory. Indigenous nations today living close to our cities live like us, they were in effect assimilated. It could (emphasis on the italic), locally, if too much people of the same group arrive without being sufficiently integrated.
It's important to keep in mind that immigration (economic immigrants as well as well as refugees) has a short term cost, you need to integrate these people into your society, help them take off on their own wings for a while. It usually takes 3 generations on average before an immigrant can contribute more than it has cost to grant him/her refuge. You need to house them and feed them in the short term, you need to help them find a job, you need to teach them the language of the place.
The decision on how much resources to allocate to immigration (again, including refugees), is a political one and it should be discusses as any other issues. Wanting unlimited immigration is as equally stupid as wanting none. We certainly need immigrants in our societies, and for the most part, everyone is very welcoming of refugees.
However, I am unsure current policies that tend to place migrants only in large cities, creating ghettos is appropriate. It creates problems in some European cities, and I'm unsure this is the model to replicate.
Quote from: Zoupa on March 30, 2022, 01:30:09 PMLet's say it's Le Pen vs Macron for the 2nd round.
Who would you vote for Duque?
I'm betting he'll pick Macron. Never figured him for a Le Pen fan.
Am I wrong, Duque?
Quote from: Oexmelin on March 30, 2022, 01:00:17 PMQuite open? Duque is constantly equivocating about his support for the far right ("too late, sorry!"), and just oversaturates his posts with so much oblique references, ellipses, fake irony, ultra-specific points about French politics using nicknames borrowed from the French press (sometimes from years ago) that I doubt people here really understand what his values are.
It's a pretty clear strategy and one which is consistent with a recognizable position. While I lack the detailed knowledge to place it specifically in a French context, the MO is fairly widespread and not that ambiguous (in spite of the deliberate embracing of ambiguity as a strategy).
Fair point. Perhaps it's clearer to others than I thought.
Quote from: viper37 on March 30, 2022, 01:35:00 PMQuote from: Zoupa on March 30, 2022, 01:30:09 PMLet's say it's Le Pen vs Macron for the 2nd round.
Who would you vote for Duque?
I'm betting he'll pick Macron. Never figured him for a Le Pen fan.
Am I wrong, Duque?
Yes, very. It's very dangerous to vote Macron if you don't make 5 to 10 K € per month after tax.
Not to mention it's not as binary as people here seem to think. You can vote blank and then vote differently in the legislative elections (not Macron or Le Pen since both don't really stand a chance anyway where I live).
It's dangerous to not vote for the literal Putin loving fascist?
come on. I'll defend you on lots of things, but not this. Drop the superior act. Sheilb is probably more knowledgeable of French politics than I am, yet I am a franco.
Quote from: Josquius on March 30, 2022, 01:54:41 PMIt's dangerous to not vote for the literal Putin loving fascist?
We have no fascist candidates in this election, sorry. Poutinolâtres from the left and right, yes unfortunately.
Sadly or not, politics tend to be local.
Even Macron stated he won't call Putin a butcher and was quite cozy with him until recently.
Quote from: Oexmelin on March 30, 2022, 01:26:05 PMYes, years ago. People on Languish don't read the French press, and I am willing to bet most people on Languish just give up deciphering your points, trying to remember who Flamby is and who your version of Flamby 2.0 may be (and what it actually refers to in your mind), as well as trying to figure out what is irony, and what isn't. Kudos to Sheilbh for attempting to engage.
It's still common parlance. Just because Flanby is forgotten abroad, rightly perhaps, does not mean his legacy is still around i.e Macron. The self-styled enemy of finance hiring a Rotschild banker, that has to be something unforgettable.
QuoteYou will of course forgive me if I don't especially harbor the desire to meet your approval for what is being "enough" or "adequate" or "appropriate" marker of politics, considering you never show that much scruples yourself when it comes to others.
I don't need your approval to be honest. Just do not expect me to take you seriously if you slide into Anglo-like ignorance and narrow-minded vision of French politics.
Scruples? My, aren't we a wee bit moralistic. The passive agressive part I'll pretend to not see it, since it is beneath you.
Quote from: viper37 on March 30, 2022, 01:56:39 PMcome on. I'll defend you on lots of things, but not this. Drop the superior act. Sheilb is probably more knowledgeable of French politics than I am, yet I am a franco.
Sheilbh is a European, Brexit or not, you are a non-Hispanic French-speaking Latin North American. :P Distance also plays a part, sorry.
As for Sheilbh, he is indeed quite knowledgeable, I like his perspective sometimes but he is out of this depth this time. Nothing critical, but debating about a French right-wing intellectual, even a polemical one (polemist by trade) is not the same as an uncultured American demagog.
So Duque de Bragança, I'm curious - how would you define your political stance? What policies do you support? What are the most important political actions that the French state should take, that it is not currently taking? Which politicians and political parties are the least inadequate, in your view?
It is clear from your frequent comments that you find multiculturalism bankrupt and Islam harmful, but I'm interested in hearing what other content there might be to your politics if you care to articulate them.
Quote from: Zoupa on March 30, 2022, 01:30:09 PMLet's say it's Le Pen vs Macron for the 2nd round.
Who would you vote for Duque?
Ideally, there would be other choices. Last time, it was a blank vote.
Quote from: Jacob on March 30, 2022, 01:35:39 PMQuote from: Oexmelin on March 30, 2022, 01:00:17 PMQuite open? Duque is constantly equivocating about his support for the far right ("too late, sorry!"), and just oversaturates his posts with so much oblique references, ellipses, fake irony, ultra-specific points about French politics using nicknames borrowed from the French press (sometimes from years ago) that I doubt people here really understand what his values are.
It's a pretty clear strategy and one which is consistent with a recognizable position. While I lack the detailed knowledge to place it specifically in a French context, the MO is fairly widespread and not that ambiguous (in spite of the deliberate embracing of ambiguity as a strategy).
Well, at least you recognise you lack the knowledge, but since you seem to be judging everything from an anglo North American context, basically you are in no position to have a well-informed opinion about French politics. Please don't take it personally. It's factual. Does not mean you are dumb, of course. I don't believe I implied it.
As for ambiguity. :lmfao: My position about Ségolène Royal and the PS and its by-products such as Jupiter (Macron stated he wanted to be a Jupiterian president) is well-known. I even voted Sarkozy against her and Flanby, despite not being a great fan of Sarkozy. Viper might remember the time I preferred Bayou (long gone). In retrospect, if Bayrou had managed to be president instead of Macron, things would have been different. Macron realised its dream of recycling the PS and part of the right. A dream dating from Valéry Giscard d'Estaing, a former centrist president.
Quote from: Jacob on March 30, 2022, 02:11:38 PMSo Duque de Bragança, I'm curious - how would you define your political stance? What policies do you support? What are the most important political actions that the French state should take, that it is not currently taking? Which politicians and political parties are the least inadequate, in your view?
It is clear from your frequent comments that you find multiculturalism bankrupt and Islam harmful, but I'm interested in hearing what other content there might be to your politics if you care to articulate them.
If you are that interested, that will be later, such as tomorrow probably. I'm done for the night.
Quote from: Duque de Bragança on March 30, 2022, 02:25:11 PMQuote from: Zoupa on March 30, 2022, 01:30:09 PMLet's say it's Le Pen vs Macron for the 2nd round.
Who would you vote for Duque?
Ideally, there would be other choices. Last time, it was a blank vote.
Et donc cette fois ci?
Pourquoi c'est si dur de te tirer les vers du nez? C'est une question assez simple...
Quote from: Zoupa on March 30, 2022, 02:41:16 PMQuote from: Duque de Bragança on March 30, 2022, 02:25:11 PMQuote from: Zoupa on March 30, 2022, 01:30:09 PMLet's say it's Le Pen vs Macron for the 2nd round.
Who would you vote for Duque?
Ideally, there would be other choices. Last time, it was a blank vote.
Et donc cette fois ci?
Pourquoi c'est si dur de te tirer les vers du nez? C'est une question assez simple...
Tout simplement parce que nous ne sommes pas encore au second tour, et que le vote est censé être secret.
C'est bien parti pour encore un vote blanc, sauf je décide d'être gentil et de faire plaisir à Œx en votant Marine ou même Zemmour, pour qu'il ait raison pour une fois.
Quote from: Duque de Bragança on March 30, 2022, 02:01:14 PMIt's still common parlance. Just because Flanby is forgotten abroad, rightly perhaps, does not mean his legacy is still around i.e Macron. The self-styled enemy of finance hiring a Rotschild banker, that has to be something unforgettable.
I guess it all depends whether or not you see the point of this place as actually communicating your ideas or just to feel self-satisfied about your own wit. Not that both are mutually exclusive, but you fail singularly at the first, at least on Languish.
Quote from: Duque de Bragança on March 30, 2022, 02:29:27 PMWell, at least you recognise you lack the knowledge, but since you seem to be judging everything from an anglo North American context, basically you are in no position to have a well-informed opinion about French politics. Please don't take it personally. It's factual. Does not mean you are dumb, of course. I don't believe I implied it.
With one minor exception, we are in agreement here :)
I have exposure to politics outside of an Anglo North American context, so that is not my only frame of reference. Not French, though, which is one of the reasons why I am interested.
QuoteAs for ambiguity. :lmfao: My position about Ségolène Royal and the PS and its by-products such as Jupiter (Macron stated he wanted to be a Jupiterian president) is well-known. I even voted Sarkozy against her and Flanby, despite not being a great fan of Sarkozy. Viper might remember the time I preferred Bayou (long gone). In retrospect, if Bayrou had managed to be president instead of Macron, things would have been different. Macron realised its dream of recycling the PS and part of the right. A dream dating from Valéry Giscard d'Estaing, a former centrist president.
It's reasonably clear what or whom you are against :D ... less clear what you're for, but as you said: maybe tomorrow.
Quote from: Duque de Bragança on March 30, 2022, 02:33:37 PMIf you are that interested, that will be later, such as tomorrow probably. I'm done for the night.
I am interested. Have a good night :cheers:
Quote from: Duque de Bragança on March 30, 2022, 02:47:08 PMQuote from: Zoupa on March 30, 2022, 02:41:16 PMQuote from: Duque de Bragança on March 30, 2022, 02:25:11 PMQuote from: Zoupa on March 30, 2022, 01:30:09 PMLet's say it's Le Pen vs Macron for the 2nd round.
Who would you vote for Duque?
Ideally, there would be other choices. Last time, it was a blank vote.
Et donc cette fois ci?
Pourquoi c'est si dur de te tirer les vers du nez? C'est une question assez simple...
Tout simplement parce que nous ne sommes pas encore au second tour, et que le vote est censé être secret.
Riiiiiiiiiiight. Donc va pour les fachos alors.
C'est plus la peine de se cacher tu sais. Vous êtes 45% apparemment. Assumez.
Quote from: Zoupa on March 30, 2022, 03:32:28 PMRiiiiiiiiiiight. Donc va pour les fachos alors.
Je n'ai pas dit Mélenchon, y compris contre Jupiter, grand ami de Poutine et des islamistes, grand raciste envers les centre et est-européens (sauf s'il s'agit d'un dictateur).
Bravo au fait pour la manipulation digne du gaucho FB où je dis que c'est bien parti pour un vote blanc.
QuoteC'est plus la peine de se cacher tu sais. Vous êtes 45% apparemment. Assumez.
45 % ? Marine + Zemmour au second tour (un peu dur pour dDupont-Aignan ? Si c'est avéré, c'est un grand succès pour Jupiter.
J'ai toujours assumé voter au centre-droit/droite dans un contexte français donc européen mais ici droite française (ou portugaise tiens encore pire avec le PSD) c'est limite gaucho.
Le théâtre "anti-fasciste" de vichyste Mitterrand très peu moi, désolé. Même Yoyo n'était pas convaincu, c'est dire.
Quote from: Oexmelin on March 30, 2022, 02:58:39 PMQuote from: Duque de Bragança on March 30, 2022, 02:01:14 PMIt's still common parlance. Just because Flanby is forgotten abroad, rightly perhaps, does not mean his legacy is still around i.e Macron. The self-styled enemy of finance hiring a Rotschild banker, that has to be something unforgettable.
I guess it all depends whether or not you see the point of this place as actually communicating your ideas or just to feel self-satisfied about your own wit. Not that both are mutually exclusive, but you fail singularly at the first, at least on Languish.
You have been notoriously drinking the US ID politic leftist koolaid for too long in your echo chamber, so some ideas are unpalatable to you.
As for Flanby, it's not even from the French press, but from his own party (Montebourg IIRC) just to show how clueless you have become about French politics. You don't like Flanby because it's too Franco-centric yet it triggers you. Make up your mind.
Here is a list of more arcane nicknames :
Fraise des bois
C'est sans doute le surnom le plus célèbre de François Hollande. Laurent Fabius en est l'auteur. "A-t-on jamais caché un éléphant derrière une fraise des bois ?" interroge l'ancien plus jeune Premier ministre en visant le patron du PS. On est en 2003, et Fabius regarde le successeur de Jospin de tout son mépris. Hollande est, depuis la défaite du 21 avril 2002, le leader naturel du Parti socialiste. Le comparer à une fraise des bois, c'est souligner sa petitesse devant la grandeur des éléphants. Ce sobriquet est déclinable : Fraise Tagada, pour le côté sucré, Fraise flagada, pour son manque supposé de fermeté...
Monsieur petites blagues
Là encore, c'est Laurent Fabius qui a baptisé de ce surnom méprisant son supérieur hiérarchique au PS. Une autre façon de montrer qu'à part blaguer François Hollande n'est pas bon à grand-chose. Aujourd'hui, Hollande est président, Fabius, son ministre.
Guimauve le Conquérant
Moins connu, mais savoureux, ce détournement est l'oeuvre de Guillaume Bachelay, lieutenant de Fabius - décidément ! Bachelay est un anti-Hollande féroce, devenu par la force des choses soutien du président ; il est aussi normand et plutôt drôle. Le résultat, c'est ce surnom bien trouvé, puisqu'il allie référence historique (Hollande est normand, comme Guillaume... le Conquérant) et allusion au caractère (la guimauve). Sans doute l'un des plus beaux surnoms de Hollande.
Capitaine de pédaloLe pingouinMonsieur BricolagePépèrehttps://www.lepoint.fr/politique/de-flanby-a-pepere-tous-les-surnoms-d-hollande-10-04-2013-1653042_20.php (https://www.lepoint.fr/politique/de-flanby-a-pepere-tous-les-surnoms-d-hollande-10-04-2013-1653042_20.php)
Detailed explanation for those interested, some were quite common but Flanby seems to be the survivor.
Aside from all that - just returning to my main point yesterday that it looks likely Le Pen will be in the second round again. I'm still very confident that in that scenario, Macron will win (same against Zemmour or Melenchon if they got through). But I think we are in pretty dodgy/dangerous territory in the polling - especially if turn-out is low:
(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FPK3yyuXsAIVWRe?format=jpg&name=small)
I am less confident than I was before and I feel like cost of living/inflation is something that Macron will be particularly vulnerable on - and that Le Pen can particularly take advantage of.
Surely le pens Putin love will cost her.
Quote from: Sheilbh on March 31, 2022, 08:05:33 AMAside from all that - just returning to my main point yesterday that it looks likely Le Pen will be in the second round again. I'm still very confident that in that scenario, Macron will win (same against Zemmour or Melenchon if they got through). But I think we are in pretty dodgy/dangerous territory in the polling - especially if turn-out is low:
(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FPK3yyuXsAIVWRe?format=jpg&name=small)
Interesting to see more Mélenchon voters switching more to Le Pen than to Jupiter. Abstention and blank votes higher, however.
BFMTV is biased for Macron, by the way.
17% switching from Zemmour to Macron is stil too high to make any sense. No pro-Zemmour I know contemplates it. Some are not too fond of Le Pen but Macron is a big no-no.
QuoteI am less confident than I was before and I feel like cost of living/inflation is something that Macron will be particularly vulnerable on - and that Le Pen can particularly take advantage of.
Narrower win for sure unless Le Pen blunders again in the debate. Macron will have to do some real campaigning at last.
Quote from: Zoupa on March 30, 2022, 03:32:28 PMQuote from: Duque de Bragança on March 30, 2022, 02:47:08 PMQuote from: Zoupa on March 30, 2022, 02:41:16 PMQuote from: Duque de Bragança on March 30, 2022, 02:25:11 PMQuote from: Zoupa on March 30, 2022, 01:30:09 PMLet's say it's Le Pen vs Macron for the 2nd round.
Who would you vote for Duque?
Ideally, there would be other choices. Last time, it was a blank vote.
Et donc cette fois ci?
Pourquoi c'est si dur de te tirer les vers du nez? C'est une question assez simple...
Tout simplement parce que nous ne sommes pas encore au second tour, et que le vote est censé être secret.
Riiiiiiiiiiight. Donc va pour les fachos alors.
C'est plus la peine de se cacher tu sais. Vous êtes 45% apparemment. Assumez.
Là, c'est toi qui est de mauvaise foi.
Je connais Duque depuis des années, je peux t'assurer qu'il n'est pas facho. Anti-clérical, certes, et c'est l'Islam politique qui est le plus militant présentement, alors sa position est facilement assimilable à d'autres plus extrêmes.
Quote from: Sheilbh on March 31, 2022, 08:05:33 AMAside from all that - just returning to my main point yesterday that it looks likely Le Pen will be in the second round again. I'm still very confident that in that scenario, Macron will win (same against Zemmour or Melenchon if they got through). But I think we are in pretty dodgy/dangerous territory in the polling - especially if turn-out is low:
The barbarians are clearly at the gates. The Elabe poll just out has Macron up just 5 points over LePen in a run off. The top 4 in the first round are likely to be Macron, Zemmour, Melenchon, and LePen. Only Macron is conventional. Macron will probably win but western voters are showing an increasing tendency toward self harm.
Quote from: viper37 on March 31, 2022, 09:58:30 AMQuote from: Zoupa on March 30, 2022, 03:32:28 PMQuote from: Duque de Bragança on March 30, 2022, 02:47:08 PMQuote from: Zoupa on March 30, 2022, 02:41:16 PMQuote from: Duque de Bragança on March 30, 2022, 02:25:11 PMQuote from: Zoupa on March 30, 2022, 01:30:09 PMLet's say it's Le Pen vs Macron for the 2nd round.
Who would you vote for Duque?
Ideally, there would be other choices. Last time, it was a blank vote.
Et donc cette fois ci?
Pourquoi c'est si dur de te tirer les vers du nez? C'est une question assez simple...
Tout simplement parce que nous ne sommes pas encore au second tour, et que le vote est censé être secret.
Riiiiiiiiiiight. Donc va pour les fachos alors.
C'est plus la peine de se cacher tu sais. Vous êtes 45% apparemment. Assumez.
Là, c'est toi qui est de mauvaise foi.
Je connais Duque depuis des années, je peux t'assurer qu'il n'est pas facho. Anti-clérical, certes, et c'est l'Islam politique qui est le plus militant présentement, alors sa position est facilement assimilable à d'autres plus extrêmes.
The left massively mobilized and voted for Chirac in 2002. Le Pen got no votes from us.
I see that when the shoe is on the other foot, about half of the right, centre-right or what have you, will vote for Le Pen this time around.
A blank vote is just as bad, the very definition of a fucking edge lord. When there's a nazi on the ballot, you get off your ass, make the effort to actually go vote, and pick the other guy.
Quote from: alfred russel on March 31, 2022, 10:25:23 AMThe barbarians are clearly at the gates. The Elabe poll just out has Macron up just 5 points over LePen in a run off. The top 4 in the first round are likely to be Macron, Zemmour, Melenchon, and LePen. Only Macron is conventional. Macron will probably win but western voters are showing an increasing tendency toward self harm.
Yeah - looking at the poll of polls I think that over 50% of votes are now likely to go to "anti-system" parties v, say, Macron, Pecresse, PS, Jadot. That should be a concern.
https://www.politico.eu/europe-poll-of-polls/france/
Based on the breakdown I posted earlier if Le Pen were to win it looks likely that it would be because of red-brown votes from the far-left. If she doesn't win, which is more likely, the polling has her between the low and high forties which is a world away from the 35% or so she got in 2017 - again that should be a concern.
And obviously there's similar voting trends/issues in Italy - again I think "anti-system" parties are over 50% (fortunately they don't all get along).
Quote from: Jacob on March 30, 2022, 03:19:43 PMQuote from: Duque de Bragança on March 30, 2022, 02:33:37 PMIf you are that interested, that will be later, such as tomorrow probably. I'm done for the night.
I am interested. Have a good night :cheers:
I have started it but it gets longer and longer. Thinking to open another thread to not hijack this one or detailing it whenever it is relevant rather than going through a long and tedious list.
Quote from: Duque de Bragança on March 31, 2022, 12:37:57 PMQuote from: Jacob on March 30, 2022, 03:19:43 PMQuote from: Duque de Bragança on March 30, 2022, 02:33:37 PMIf you are that interested, that will be later, such as tomorrow probably. I'm done for the night.
I am interested. Have a good night :cheers:
I have started it but it gets longer and longer. Thinking to open another thread to not hijack this one or detailing it whenever it is relevant rather than going through a long and tedious list.
Whatever works. I'm still interested :)
Is this mostly driven by anti-immigration stuff? Is there some big revolutionary societal organization scheme Le Pen is pitching?
Quote from: Valmy on March 31, 2022, 08:15:46 PMIs this mostly driven by anti-immigration stuff? Is there some big revolutionary societal organization scheme Le Pen is pitching?
Interested to see French takes.
My impression from outside is that on immigration Le Pen has been mainstreamed. Zemmour is the more extreme candidate, the Pecresse has also picked up the "great replacement" - the polling of the French on the "great replacement" is, frankly, terrifying. Le Pen criticises some of Zemmour's stuff as "anti-Republican" and says the "great replacement" is a conspiracy theory. At the same time you've had - to Le Pen's visible shock - Macron's interior minister accuse her of being soft on Islam in comparison with Macron. So on all sides there's been decisions that collectively make Le Pen look relatively "moderate" on immigration - I think that probably does help her and Zemmour especially is probably a gateway drug for people who haven't previously voted for Le Pen.
Separately she's spent years moving left on economics and I think there's an accident of timing point. If the central banks are right in their projections, this election will happen just as inflation peaks. I think the candidates who are able to pretty convincingly talk about cost of living are probably Le Pen and Melenchon. In addition I think it's a really tough issue for Macron to talk about.
I would not worry too much about Pécresse going full Zemmour if I were you. Pure electoral move.
Low credibility as reflected in polls.
Darmanin's accusation is a laughably bad PR stunt. Let me remind you that Macron's government broadened family regrouping and signed the Marrakesh pact. Macron is pro full immigration (big business candidate as said by Bayrou before joining him) he just happens to pretend otherwise for the elections since going for full immigration is not desired by a majority of French people.
As for Marine going left on economics, this has been true for a while and that's a difference with Zemmour stays on a more conservative but in thef French style i.e no thatcherism, so colbertism is fine meaning to the left of Macron's vision of economy.
I don't think her politic agenda on economics is as to the left as it was in 2017 when it was very close to Mélenchon's and Philippot was around, but yes talking convincingly of the cost of living
should not be too difficult for her.
Quote from: Razgovory on March 18, 2022, 07:10:09 PMThe indigenous peoples of Americas didn't have immigrants. They didn't even have states. They were simply invaded. So that's a false analogy. In the US, we've had people claim that immigrants would replace everyone for 200 years. Still hasn't happened.
Is that true? I'm mostly a mix of italian, irish and german...grew up catholic. I think catholicism is the plurality religion in the US. from the perspective of americans in the 1820s, if they saw the religious, cultural, and demographic makeup of america today some of them would definitely believe htey were replaced.
The polling on the second round matters more - but the first round looks concerning too (especially given how pro-Putin Melenchon and Le Pen are):
(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FPgq8lLWQAcAUQm?format=jpg&name=small)
As I said in the Hungarian politics thread, I think Orban's found an answer for the war for Putin-sympathising politicians in Europe: position themselves as the "peace" candidate (v "pro-war" candidates/leaders sending weapons and increasing sanctions) and focus on the cost of living. I suspect that would work for Melenchon or Le Pen.
Obviously Macron is still far more likely to win, but as I say this feels more and more like it's in the space where accidents can happen.
You will be happy to know that Mélenchon has postponed the exit of NATO in his political agenda, due to the war, so until peace is back.
Marine and Zemmmour are for leaving NATO's military structure, as per De Gaulle.
And on the second round polling:
(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FPhI1hIWYAYk5jQ?format=jpg&name=small)
I think a lot here depends on turn-out and, particularly, if Melenchon's voters decide to abstain :ph34r:
Maybe Putin just have to make it to a Le Pen win rather than hold on for Trump to turn it around?
The debate between the two who make it to the run-off could be a factor as well.
Last time, Marine's performance was subpar, not that Macron's was great.
Of course, the famed polemist Zemmour in that debate would make for a more interesting debate but it is not going to happen judging by pre-election polls.
Also I think polls in the second round (after the first round) tend to look a bit different to polls on the second round (before the first round), so there may be a shift - though I am having 2016 flashbacks.
I think the key is the issues this is being fought on are now slightly more favourable to a candidate like Le Pen than you would have expected given revulsion at Russia's invasion. The line from Orban will help which is basically to play on people's fears: Macron (though [insert name] here) is being reckless, we're going to get dragged into a hot war with Russia - and, by the way, cost of living's a nightmare.
In a way this context feels more helpful for her than a campaign focused on identity and immigration (though as I say I think Zemmour has helped make her appear more moderate on those issues). Because I think that set of issues (fear and cost of living) makes it more likely for Melenchon voters to either back Le Pen or abstain than an identity campaign.
The other thing that's extraordinary is obviously the collapse of Pecresse. If she really comes fifth I wouldn't be surprised if the French right goes through the same sort of breakdown that the French left has after 2017. More widely it feels like another step in the implosion of party democracy because my understanding is that LREM doesn't have many real member/activists, similarly for the RN, Reconquete have activists but don't realy have a party structure - I think FI does aspire to be more of a mass movement party.
It is really striking that with Macron, Le Pen, Zemmour and Melenchon they are all to some extent "name" candidates who are creating the party structures behind them (which might not last if they stepped down/away), as opposed to candidates who've come up through the party system and are very much creatures of their party/wing of politics even if they re-mould/constitute it. Maybe a sign of a move to more of a personalist/media democracy which will replace the old 20th century party democracy? :hmm:
Macron is still seen by lots of people as cozying up to Putin as in receiving Putin in Versailles, being on a first name basis and tu (thou as in singular familiar) until very recently so I disagree.
He is widely viewed as a pedant elitist, president of the rich (not just by me), out of touch, and that hurts him more than the Orban line IMO.
Fortunately for him, his bad management of the Covid pandemic is all but forgotten due to the war in Ukraine.
Pécresse and LR collapsing, was intended by Macro so WAD for him.
As for me, LREM is a rump party, with no ideological consistency with a PS wing and some from LR, motivated by opportunism (more opportunities for both than in their previous parties).
I Disagree about Le Pen and Mélenchon, they have had parties for a while, Marine uses a renewed party created by her father, and Mélenchon, with Die Linke as a model, has had LFI for a while.
Fair - if alarming comment - from a political commentator here that it's not great when running analytical assumptions about why, say, the Tories or Australian Liberals are going to struggle to get re-elected over the next year or two (cost of living, limited policy options, possible central bank tightening/recession etc) and then applying that to countries where the alternative is Trump or Le Pen or Fratelli d'Italia.
I'd still expect Macron to win but Western politicians need to work out what they can do and get ahead of this now I think or I fear they'll face domestic/electoral issues.
Interesting NYT piece - as ever I think it suffers a little from a bit of NYT parochialism that understands everything through, or ties it to, Amerrican politics. But plenty to chew on.
Particularly which, from a UK perspective is always striking, that Macron/Republicains establishment party voters tend to be older - while younger voters lean to the anti-system candidates:
QuoteEven Before France Votes, the French Right Is a Big Winner
The dominance of right-wing ideas in France's presidential election campaign follows years of cultural wars waged successfully by conservatives on television, in social media and in think tanks.
By Norimitsu Onishi and Constant Méheut
April 6, 2022, 9:04 a.m. ET
PARIS — With just days to go before the first round of France's presidential election, President Emmanuel Macron is still the odds-on favorite to make it through the political juggernaut and win a second term. But even if he does succeed, and before a single ballot is cast, another clear winner has already emerged from the race.
The French right.
Despite a late surge by Jean-Luc Mélenchon, the leading left-wing candidate, virtually the entire French campaign has been fought on the right and far right, whose candidates dominate the polls and whose themes and talking points — issues of national identity, immigration and Islam — have dominated the political debate. The far right has even become the champion of pocketbook issues, traditionally the left's turf.
Mr. Macron himself has pivoted to the right so consistently to confront the challenge that there is even discussion now of whether he should be regarded as a center-right president, though he emerged from a government run by the now-moribund Socialists in 2017.
In a tightening race, the candidate he is most likely to face in a runoff two weeks from Sunday's initial voting is Marine Le Pen, the far-right leader of the National Rally, according to polls. It would be her second consecutive appearance in the final round of the presidential election, cementing her place in the political establishment.
"The great movement to the right — that's done, it's over," said Gaël Brustier, a political analyst and former adviser to left-wing politicians. "It won't set off in the other direction for 20 years."
Ms. Le Pen and her party for decades softened the ground for the growth of the right. But the right's recent political ascendancy follows many years in which conservatives have successfully waged a cultural battle — greatly inspired by the American right and often adopting its codes and strategies to attract a more youthful audience.
Not only has the French right in recent months wielded the idea of "wokisme" to effectively stifle the left and blunt what it sees as the threat of a "woke culture" from American campuses. But it also has busily established a cultural presence after years with few, if any, media outlets in the mainstream.
Today the French right has burst through social barriers and is represented by its own version of a Fox-style television news channel, CNews, an expanding network of think tanks, and multiple social media platforms with a substantial and increasingly younger following.
These things "did not exist in France or were at the embryonic stage" just a few years ago, said François de Voyer, 38, a host and financial backer of Livre Noir, a year-old YouTube channel focusing on politicians on the right and far right.
"We told ourselves, 'Let's do like CPAC in the United States,'" said Mr. de Voyer, referring to the Conservative Political Action Conference, the annual gathering of the right wing of American politics.
So he did.
In 2019, Mr. de Voyer co-organized "The Convention of the Right," a one-day conference that featured leading figures of the right and the far right. It constituted a political launchpad for Éric Zemmour, the TV pundit and best-selling author.
More than any other presidential hopeful, Mr. Zemmour has embodied the effects of the right's cultural battle on the campaign.
In his best-selling books and on his daily appearances on CNews, Mr. Zemmour over a decade became a leader of the new right-wing media ecosystem that painted France as being under an existential threat by Muslim immigrants and their descendants, as well as by the importation of multicultural ideas from the United States.
Though he has now receded in the polls, to about 10 percent support, Mr. Zemmour's meteoric rise last year captured France's attention and ensured that the presidential campaign would be fought almost exclusively on the right's home turf, as he successfully widened the boundaries of what was politically acceptable in France.
Mr. Zemmour brought into the mainstream a racist conspiracy theory that white Christian populations are being intentionally replaced by nonwhite immigrants, said Raphaël Llorca, a French communication expert and member of the Fondation Jean-Jaurès research institute.
The "great replacement," as the theory is called, was later picked up as a talking point even by Valérie Pécresse, the candidate of the establishment center-right Republican Party.
Such penetration into the mainstream is the result of a decade-old organizational effort by the right.
Thibaut Monnier, a former councilor for Ms. Le Pen's party who then joined Mr. Zemmour's movement, said that in the mid-2010s conservatives like him set for themselves a "metapolitical" project of creating new political institutions and their own media.
In 2018, along with Marion Maréchal, the niece of Ms. Le Pen, Mr. Monnier co-founded a conservative political institution in Lyon called Issep, or the Institute of Social, Economic and Political Sciences. The school is an alternative to what he describes as higher-education establishments dominated by the left.
But even as it elbowed its way into the educational establishment, the far right also succeeded in a parallel campaign to spread its ideas on social media to make itself appear attractively transgressive.
Central to Mr. Zemmour's cultural battle has been his command of social media and pop culture codes, Mr. Llorca said.
The far-right candidate is very active on networks like TikTok and Instagram, where he posts daily messages and videos aimed at a younger audience. His YouTube campaign-launching video, riddled with cultural references, drew millions of viewers.
Mr. Llorca said that Mr. Zemmour had successfully waged a "battle of the cool" designed to "play down the radical content" of his ideas without ever changing their substance. He has been helped by a network of internet users who defuse with humor the violence of his extremist ideas. On Facebook and Instagram, accounts followed by tens of thousands of people frequently post lighthearted memes about Mr. Zemmour.
Mr. Zemmour has received support from far-right YouTube influencers mocking everything from feminism to veganism to trade unions. One such influencer, Papacito, whose videos sometimes reach one million views, endorsed Mr. Zemmour recently.
"Our goal is really to make a countercultural Canal+," he told the magazine Valeurs Actuelles, referring to the entertainment TV channel that dominated the progressive cultural scene in the 1980s and 1990s. "One that is just as fun, but carrying patriotic and more reactionary ideas."
Samuel Lafont, the head of Mr. Zemmour's digital team, said that some 1,500 people were working to promote discussions of Mr. Zemmour on social networks and create new visuals accompanying his media appearances.
Mr. Lafont acknowledged that several independent "cells" had even been created to wage the fight on Wikipedia, which he called "an important cultural battle."
Ms. Le Pen's camp has often boasted about having already won the battle of ideas, pointing to how the government has even adopted some of her language, including use of the term "ensauvagement," a racially tinged dog whistle of the far right suggesting that the nation is turning savage.
But the right's most striking success may be the growing use in the public debate of "wokisme," a term unknown to most French just months ago.
Data from Google shows that interest in "wokisme" emerged only in September, just as the news media began focusing on the presidential elections. It peaked in November, fueled by controversies around so-called woke ideas such as the use of nonbinary pronouns.
Nicolas Vanderbiest, a communication expert who studied the appearance of the notion online, estimated that 15 percent of the exchanges that sparked widespread controversy on French social media last year were related to "wokisme."
"Wokisme" spread thanks to conservative publications. Le Figaro, a daily with the second largest circulation nationwide, used the term woke 417 times in its articles last year. That was about 12 times more than Le Monde, a center-left daily with the biggest readership in France.
This anti-woke movement became so powerful that Mr. Macron's minister of national education, Jean-Michel Blanquer, launched a think tank last October meant to combat "wokisme," telling Le Monde that "France and its youth must escape from this."
Though the meaning of "wokisme" was never clear, it became a catchall wielded by conservatives to blunt demands for social justice.
The French left has "allowed itself to be intimidated" by words like "wokisme," making it nearly impossible to engage in frank discussions about racism and other social problems during the presidential race, said Sandrine Rousseau, an economist, an eco-feminist and a leader of the French Greens.
The French right has succeeded in winning the culture wars, in great part because the left has offered no alternative, Ms. Rousseau said.
"We, on the left, have shrunk back in the face of attacks from the right," Ms. Rousseau said. "As they gradually advanced, we were afraid to lead this fight."
Mr. Brustier, the analyst, said left-wing organizations "do not work" to produce new ideas. A few years ago, he said, he tried unsuccessfully to launch a school to train left-wing activists. "It annoyed everyone," he said.
Norimitsu Onishi is a foreign correspondent on the International Desk, covering France out of the Paris bureau. He previously served as bureau chief for The Times in Johannesburg, Jakarta, Tokyo and Abidjan, Ivory Coast.
Constant Méheut reports from France. He joined the Paris bureau in January 2020. @ConstantMeheut
Quote from: Sheilbh on April 06, 2022, 10:16:01 AMInteresting NYT piece - as ever I think it suffers a little from a bit of NYT parochialism that understands everything through, or ties it to, American politics. But plenty to chew on.
That's quite charitable. Remember their headline (later changed following a wide decry) about the murder of Samuel Paty by the islamist Chechen?
https://twitter.com/clairlemon/status/1317313378973409280?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw%7Ctwcamp%5Etweetembed%7Ctwterm%5E1317313378973409280%7Ctwgr%5E%7Ctwcon%5Es1_&ref_url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.lepoint.fr%2Fmonde%2Fassassinat-de-samuel-paty-le-titre-du-new-york-times-etait-indecent-19-10-2020-2397181_24.php (https://twitter.com/clairlemon/status/1317313378973409280?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw%7Ctwcamp%5Etweetembed%7Ctwterm%5E1317313378973409280%7Ctwgr%5E%7Ctwcon%5Es1_&ref_url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.lepoint.fr%2Fmonde%2Fassassinat-de-samuel-paty-le-titre-du-new-york-times-etait-indecent-19-10-2020-2397181_24.php)
Or their trouble in grasping the concept of
laïcité?
Make the English press look like geniuses.
From the war thread as I don't want to distract there too much.
Quote from: celedhring on April 06, 2022, 02:36:01 PMThey just need to Article 7 his ass.
And quickly - from FT reporter :ph34r:
QuoteAnne-Sylvaine Chassany
@ChassNews
The mood in France, according to veteran pollster @BriceTeinturier : "More people say the country and their personal situation would improve if MLPen is president than if it it is Macron"
And her congrats to Orban:
https://twitter.com/MLP_officiel/status/1510710398768533506?s=20&t=_q8Ts7c5OCJu897lgYXNFw
And as a Brit there's nothing more mind-twisting than the age breakdown of French voters (it's been like this for a while), where 60% of 25-34 year old voters support the far-right or far-left:
(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FPr5no3XIAMVkAL?format=png&name=small)
While they rely on the over-65s (who'll probably do it again) to elect the centrist-ish liberal:
(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FPr8Y3qXEAMzQMZ?format=png&name=small)
It's just very, very odd for us :blink: I don't think demographics is destiny and think views/voting intention change as people age, but it's still weird.
Older people supporting the far right you can kind of explain away. Of course they're a bit racist. They want the 1960s back, we all have fond memories of when we were kids.
Young people supporting the far right however... Very dodgy stuff there. A serious concern for the future.
Quote from: Josquius on April 07, 2022, 02:52:08 AMOlder people supporting the far right you can kind of explain away. Of course they're a bit racist. They want the 1960s back, we all have fond memories of when we were kids.
Have you even seen the graph? Le Pen and Zemmour are 3rd and 4th amongst 65+, you can't say that old people support the far right when they'll go for Macron much more than for the two far right candidates combined.
My cheap sociological analysis is that old people don't want to rock the boat, they just want stability. They'll mostly vote for establishment parties around the center, by and large they're not in some quest to go back to their glory days of youth.
QuoteYoung people supporting the far right however... Very dodgy stuff there. A serious concern for the future.
What? Young people supporting radical options, be they on the left or right, is pretty common almost everywhere. Where do you get that young people supporting the far right is dodgy?
The Larch is not breaking any new ground but a reminder was needed from what I can see.
Knowing about the 18-24 votes would be interesting as well.
The youth wing of the FN, FNJ, was notorious for being even more to the right than the party in general, back in the day.
As for pensioners supporting Macron, well I guess they won't have any complains if Macron rises again the taxation of their pensions.
Quote from: The Larch on April 07, 2022, 04:06:29 AMHave you even seen the graph? Le Pen and Zemmour are 3rd and 4th amongst 65+, you can't say that old people support the far right when they'll go for Macron much more than for the two far right candidates combined.
My cheap sociological analysis is that old people don't want to rock the boat, they just want stability. They'll mostly vote for establishment parties around the center, by and large they're not in some quest to go back to their glory days of youth.
It's just the bit that's a bit mind-bending from a British perspective because here old people vote right wing and young people vote left wing (which reflects other demographics like education and class interests like property ownership etc).
A lot of people on the left like to pretend that it means they don't need to do anything to appeal to voters, they just need to wait for the elderly to die and be replaced by young lefties (I see similar generational lines in the US too). I disagree with that take because I think that people's politics change as they age (not least because their lifestyle, earnings, property etc shift too). But if they're right it's just a matter of time before France votes RN into the presidency.
QuoteWhat? Young people supporting radical options, be they on the left or right, is pretty common almost everywhere. Where do you get that young people supporting the far right is dodgy?
Actually that's the bit I find striking is these aren't what I'd necessarily call young voters (though you're a saint for saying that :P) - which is why I think their radicalisation is interesting. I get the 18-24 year olds being radical (generally they back Melenchon though).
I find it more interesting/surprising that 25-34 which is people often starting their careers, starting to settle down, starting families are so radical.
Edit: And more polling that suggests we could be in for a very troubling result - more people think Le Pen has good ideas for the future than Macron:
(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FPuwJ2PXIAM2lxz?format=jpg&name=small)
And especially in a context of cost of living issues that Le Pen stands up for people like me - you can really see the cost of Macron's approach/style here:
(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FPuwRx9WYAAp2TT?format=jpg&name=small)
Also more polling showing just how much the French left hate Macron and might not turn out as needed in the second round. It's all rather concerning.
Quote from: The Larch on April 07, 2022, 04:06:29 AM[
Have you even seen the graph? Le Pen and Zemmour are 3rd and 4th amongst 65+, you can't say that old people support the far right when they'll go for Macron much more than for the two far right candidates combined.
That's the point. It's bucking the trends seen elsewhere.
QuoteMy cheap sociological analysis is that old people don't want to rock the boat, they just want stability. They'll mostly vote for establishment parties around the center, by and large they're not in some quest to go back to their glory days of youth.
Which is very curious. Why is France so different to the US and UK here?
QuoteWhat? Young people supporting radical options, be they on the left or right, is pretty common almost everywhere. Where do you get that young people supporting the far right is dodgy?
Not really. Again outside France, a lot of young people support the far left but for the far right it's always been a very vocal small minority of them. Not really statistically significant.
As to why it's dodgy... The far right are particularly prone to violence.
It's also a lot harder to moderate with age in the way the far left is.
If you've got people under 35 already at this stage then it doesn't bode well for years to come.
Quote from: Sheilbh on April 06, 2022, 04:14:38 PMIt's just very, very odd for us :blink: I don't think demographics is destiny and think views/voting intention change as people age, but it's still weird.
Agree. A nation of Proud Boys.
Projecting US/UK issues or trends makes for very odd analyses of French politics.
La jeunesse emmerde le Front national is so 80s, as in dated, sadly or not.
https://youtu.be/CuZB9hOQ0DQ
https://www.lefigaro.fr/elections/presidentielles/presidentielle-2022-forte-abstention-attendue-pour-le-premier-tour-selon-un-sondage-20220407 (https://www.lefigaro.fr/elections/presidentielles/presidentielle-2022-forte-abstention-attendue-pour-le-premier-tour-selon-un-sondage-20220407)
Abstention predicted to be high. Usually, Presidential elections have very high voting rates.
And there we are. Obviously pre-first round second round polls are dodgy and likely to change, but the first poll with Le Pen in the lead:
(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FPvuruqUcAwnPut?format=png&name=small)
Also really striking that Pecresse of the mainstream right does worse v Macron than Le Pen, Zemmour or Melenchon. It really demonstrates the extent to which French politics have re-aligned (which I think is happening across developed democracies) from a left/right alignment to a system/anti-system alignment.
Quote from: Duque de Bragança on April 07, 2022, 09:15:17 AMProjecting US/UK issues or trends makes for very odd analyses of French politics.
La jeunesse emmerde le Front national is so 80s, as in dated, sadly or not.
https://youtu.be/CuZB9hOQ0DQ
I dunno, I think it's interesting.
French people aren't THAT alien, and of the countries of Europe they have the most similar system (read :undemocratic). In many ways France is closer to the UK or even US than the two are to each other. We all share a planet.
Despite the us and UK being so different a lot of the same social and economic problems at work have brought similar negative results.
You'd logically expect many of the same social and economic trends to be working on France for similar outcomes. But they aren't. Its curious.
Quote from: Josquius on April 07, 2022, 12:57:37 PMI dunno, I think it's interesting.
French people aren't THAT alien, and of the countries of Europe they have the most similar system (read :undemocratic). In many ways France is closer to the UK or even US than the two are to each other. We all share a planet.
Despite the us and UK being so different a lot of the same social and economic problems at work have brought similar negative results.
You'd logically expect many of the same social and economic trends to be working on France for similar outcomes. But they aren't. Its curious.
Totally agree. The world has become a small place. People talk funny in europe but I barely consider travel to western europe to be foreign travel.
If this really turns out to be Le Pen's moment, it makes me wonder if FirebladeLePen will be drinking champagne or moonshine or whatever, whereever he is.
French people are so fucking retarded they're able to elect LePen but would never give her a majority in the parlement.
Kinda glad I have 2 passports.
Quote from: Zoupa on April 07, 2022, 04:11:08 PMFrench people are so fucking retarded they're able to elect LePen but would never give her a majority in the parlement.
Yeah, right, let's give a majority to Marine in the Assemblée Nationale. Her last proposal was a government of national unity (Zemmour PM ?), knowing perfectly there is no chance in hell she gets a majority in legislative elections.
And leftist self-hatred as a bonus. :D
If people want to vote for her as President, why won't they vote for her deputies? Makes no sense to me.
And you can call it lefty self hate if you want. Once half your population is ready to vote for LePen, the statement "French people are fucking stupid" is pretty accurate.
We've seen Trump, we've seen Brexit, we've seen Putin. Let's vote in the dumb bitch who loves all three. :wacko:
Quote from: Zoupa on April 08, 2022, 09:42:22 AMIf people want to vote for her as President, why won't they vote for her deputies? Makes no sense to me.
Get rid of Macron, without putting her in charge and putting an end to the Mitterrand maneuver to rule with a minority of the electorate by dividing the right.
QuoteAnd you can call it lefty self hate if you want. Once half your population is ready to vote for LePen, the statement "French people are fucking stupid" is pretty accurate.
We've seen Trump, we've seen Brexit, we've seen Putin. Let's vote in the dumb bitch who loves all three. :wacko:
Apples and oranges.
Being pro-Brexit to get rid of the double-dealing and self-hurting (this time) Brits, is hardly far-right, many did it over here, with Schadenfreude playing a part from left to right.
As for Putin, it's so toxic that the 3 poutinolâtres, including the worst one, the leftist Mélenchon, had to change their stance (sincerity is another matter I'll grant you that). Marine was the most convincing at the U-turn, that's all. Judging by the polls. Mélenchon does not seem to have suffered from his putinolatry, unlike Zemmour.
Trump is hardly a factor over here. Trumpism and US "leftwing" identity politics, by the way, are both despised by the general population so it's a losing proposition to support them openly.
No other polling showing Le Pen in the lead but it's tightening across pollsters and it doesn't look impossible that she might win the first round - which would send the race into a spin I think.
There's been footage of her with crowds today and it reminds me a little of Corbyn in 2017 - it's very clear she has the momentum right now.
By contrast I'm not sure with the messaging that Macron's campaign seems to be doing which is basically "vote Le Pen, get Putin". I'm just generally (after Brexit and maybe after Trump a bit too) wary of fear as a message from an incumbent - I'm not sure it's effective. If all elections ultimately boil down to more of the same v time for a change, I think fear tends to play more into the change candidate's hands - I know nothing but I feel like they need to be telling a positive story (and there is one) of why Macron/more of the same.
Winning the first round would be spectacular for her but does not mean winning the run-off.
Macron is trying to switch from "vote for me or you will get the extreme right" to "vote for me or you will get the extremes".
As for the momentum, Zemmour claims Marine dreams or fantasizes of an alliance with Mélenchon's mythical sovereignist wing, some formerly at the PS, such as Montebourg. :hmm:
Without acknowledging that Mélenchon is too far out in islamo-leftism, according to him, again.
QuoteLe candidat Reconquête! Éric Zemmour a pointé du doigt aujourd'hui le «fantasme absolu» selon lui de Marine Le Pen de «s'allier avec Jean-Luc Mélenchon l'islamo-gauchiste».
» LIRE AUSSI - Marine Le Pen: «Je suis prête à gouverner»
Le candidat d'extrême droite réagissait sur CNews aux propos de la candidate RN qui a indiqué jeudi ne pas exclure, si elle était élue, la participation à son «gouvernement d'union nationale» de responsables politiques venus «de la gauche chevènementiste, c'est-à-dire d'une gauche souverainiste, d'une gauche qui défend la réindustrialisation, la défense de nos grandes industries». Y compris le candidat LFI Jean-Luc Mélenchon? «Probablement pas», avait-elle répondu.
Mais pour Éric Zemmour, «en vérité, Marine Le Pen rêve de s'allier à Jean-Luc Mélenchon. C'est son fantasme absolu, je vous le dis, elle veut l'alliance avec les souverainistes de gauche, elle ne connaît pas la droite et la gauche sauf quand il s'agit de s'allier avec la gauche», a-t-il défendu.
Ainsi selon lui, la candidate RN en réalité «appelle à voter pour elle Arnaud Montebourg», l'ancien ministre socialiste chantre de la «Remontada» de la France, un temps candidat à la présidentielle avant de jeter l'éponge en janvier. Une partie de son équipe de campagne a depuis rallié la candidate socialiste Anne Hidalgo. Si Marine Le Pen «veut» aussi «mes électeurs, mes électeurs sont des gens de droite qui veulent sauver la droite, pas des gens qui veulent s'allier avec Jean-Luc Mélenchon l'islamo-gauchiste», a poursuivi le candidat.
https://www.lefigaro.fr/elections/presidentielles/direct-presidentielle-2022-le-pen-fantasmerait-d-une-alliance-avec-melenchon-selon-zemmour-20220408 (https://www.lefigaro.fr/elections/presidentielles/direct-presidentielle-2022-le-pen-fantasmerait-d-une-alliance-avec-melenchon-selon-zemmour-20220408)
Last poll before the first round on Sunday - again, 2016 flashbacks:
QuoteLoïc Besson
@loicbesson
Dernier sondage Elabe @BFMTV
L'écart se réduit franchement entre Emmanuel Macron et Marine Le Pen.
1er tour :
Macron : 26% (-2)
Le Pen : 25% (+2)
2nd tour :
Macron : 51% (-2)
Le Pen : 49% (+2)
Quote from: Sheilbh on April 08, 2022, 11:45:14 AMNo other polling showing Le Pen in the lead but it's tightening across pollsters and it doesn't look impossible that she might win the first round - which would send the race into a spin I think.
I think she is better off finishing 2nd in the first round. If she wins, she is the front runner and gets the front runner treatment, and loses the insurgent candidate allure.
I think that's probably right - I hope whatever happens in round one is enough to focus minds and get people to turn out, even if it's for a candidate they're not hugely keen on.
Breakdown in the last YouGov poll in France - again from a US/UK perspective this is real through the looking glass stuff that the boomers are the good guys and we're all relying on them :blink:
QuoteMacron: 51%
Le Pen: 49%
By age
18-24: Macron 44%, Le Pen 56%
25-34: Macron 47%, Le Pen 53%
35-44: Macron 47%, Le Pen 53%
45-54: Macron 49%, Le Pen 51%
55+: Macron 55%, Le Pen 45%
Maybe the older people are just more prone to associate her with her more deplorable father.
Quote from: Duque de Bragança on April 08, 2022, 10:09:53 AMQuote from: Zoupa on April 08, 2022, 09:42:22 AMIf people want to vote for her as President, why won't they vote for her deputies? Makes no sense to me.
Get rid of Macron, without putting her in charge and putting an end to the Mitterrand maneuver to rule with a minority of the electorate by dividing the right.
Except the "right" should be divided. There's supposed to be a firewall between democratic forces and fascist ones. When the right is so pissed to be out of power than to be ready to vote for LePen, there is no "right" anymore, just a bunch of fascists.
Quote from: Duque de Bragança on April 08, 2022, 10:09:53 AMQuote from: Zoupa on April 08, 2022, 09:42:22 AMAnd you can call it lefty self hate if you want. Once half your population is ready to vote for LePen, the statement "French people are fucking stupid" is pretty accurate.
We've seen Trump, we've seen Brexit, we've seen Putin. Let's vote in the dumb bitch who loves all three. :wacko:
Apples and oranges.
Being pro-Brexit to get rid of the double-dealing and self-hurting (this time) Brits, is hardly far-right, many did it over here, with Schadenfreude playing a part from left to right.
As for Putin, it's so toxic that the 3 poutinolâtres, including the worst one, the leftist Mélenchon, had to change their stance (sincerity is another matter I'll grant you that). Marine was the most convincing at the U-turn, that's all. Judging by the polls. Mélenchon does not seem to have suffered from his putinolatry, unlike Zemmour.
Trump is hardly a factor over here. Trumpism and US "leftwing" identity politics, by the way, are both despised by the general population so it's a losing proposition to support them openly.
I meant she wants a Frexit, even after seeing the consequences on Britain.
She will copy-paste Orban's stance on Russia if elected.
She is just as ignorant and vile as Trump was/is, and sees those as qualities.
I struggle to see why you keep defending her.
Hence my conclusion: Marine LePen is stupid and evil, and every French person not voting against her is stupid and evil. CQFD.
Incidentally - I know it's social media and Le Pen's account so it will be well managed - but this clip of her going through a crowd taking selfies with them is what reminds me of the Corbyn 2017 momentum (and the crowd is so young :blink:):
https://twitter.com/MLP_officiel/status/1512390088856064002?s=20&t=zTM7Mhw10_T_u_-V8v7gjA
Quote from: Zoupa on April 08, 2022, 06:26:17 PMExcept the "right" should be divided. There's supposed to be a firewall between democratic forces and fascist ones. When the right is so pissed to be out of power than to be ready to vote for LePen, there is no "right" anymore, just a bunch of fascists.
So the left should be divided between the so-called democratic forces and the other part (communists, leftists, indigénistes, communautaristes de tout poil etc.).
However, this is not the case so this double standard has to go.
QuoteI meant she wants a Frexit, even after seeing the consequences on Britain.
False. Even left-leaning Le Monde recognises that.
https://www.lemonde.fr/politique/article/2022/02/14/le-programme-de-marine-le-pen-a-la-presidentielle-2022_6113605_823448.html (https://www.lemonde.fr/politique/article/2022/02/14/le-programme-de-marine-le-pen-a-la-presidentielle-2022_6113605_823448.html)
QuoteEurope
Rétablir un contrôle aux frontières
Marine Le Pen compte renégocier les accords de Schengen, rétablir un contrôle aux frontières tout en maintenant des procédures simplifiées pour les ressortissants des Etats de l'Union européenne.
Source : Programme (04/02/22)
Les propositions des autres candidats sur le sujet
Affirmer la supériorité des lois françaises sur les lois européennes
La candidate du RN n'envisage plus de quitter l'Union européenne, mais elle compte « remettre à sa place » cette « structure supranationale illégitime », en empêchant l'application de tout texte européen qui serait contraire à la Constitution française.
Source : France Inter (19/01/22)
Les propositions des autres candidats sur le sujet
Ne pas sortir de l'euro
La candidate du RN a abandonné l'objectif de sortir de l'euro, qui faisait partie de son programme en 2017.
Source : Le Monde (01/01/22)
These propositions may be debated of course but it is far from the caricature you make of them.
Marine lost big in 2017 when she advocated the exit of the Euro. Not even Zemmour argues for either.
QuoteShe will copy-paste Orban's stance on Russia if elected.
Or she could be a copycat of the Polish reactionary right. If you want a guaranteed lackey of Putin, try your Mélenchon.
QuoteShe is just as ignorant and vile as Trump was/is, and sees those as qualities.
Trumps is a US phenomenon, not a French one. US anti-intellectualism and parochialism is not a thing over here.
What's next, Zemmour, a right-wing intellectual as ignorant and vile as Trump?
QuoteI struggle to see why you keep defending her.
I'd rather have a debate with people whose ideas I am far from accepting in their entirety than US cancelling culture.
Reductio ad Hitlerem is all the bourgeois left can come up with these days, to make up for their treason of the working class.
QuoteHence my conclusion: Marine LePen is stupid and evil, and every French person not voting against her is stupid and evil. CQFD.
You will have to do better than crappy syllogisms which fail as even basic sophisms. The campaign she has done so far shows she is not stupid. As for evil, leave the binary epithets (manichean if you prefer) for religious-minded Yanks or Al-Quran bashers.
Quote from: Zoupa on April 08, 2022, 06:26:17 PMExcept the "right" should be divided. There's supposed to be a firewall between democratic forces and fascist ones. When the right is so pissed to be out of power than to be ready to vote for LePen, there is no "right" anymore, just a bunch of fascists.
Yes.
QuotePécresse will not urge voters to pick Macron in final round
https://www.euractiv.com/section/elections/news/pecresse-will-not-urge-voters-to-pick-macron-in-final-round/
Apparently she'll say who she is voting for personally but not encourage voters to back them. Other senior LRs are likely to reveal they're abstaining.
Quote from: Sheilbh on April 09, 2022, 06:46:54 AMIncidentally - I know it's social media and Le Pen's account so it will be well managed - but this clip of her going through a crowd taking selfies with them is what reminds me of the Corbyn 2017 momentum (and the crowd is so young :blink:):
https://twitter.com/MLP_officiel/status/1512390088856064002?s=20&t=zTM7Mhw10_T_u_-V8v7gjA
It was already the case 2017 with Marine's kitten videos on the web. Something Zemmour will never do. :lol:
Mélenchon probably did, if you insist on someone closer to Corbyn, politically.
QuoteSo the left should be divided between the so-called democratic forces and the other part (communists, leftists, indigénistes, communautaristes de tout poil etc.).
However, this is not the case so this double standard has to go.
The days of the red army faction are long gone.
There's a huge difference between naiive idiots who think we can just cancel money and then everyone will be happy and violent thugs who deem some people unworthy of existence and is enjoying a lot of success in the past decade.
This both sides stuff just doesn't reflect the reality that the far right is drastically worse than the far left.
Quote from: Josquius on April 09, 2022, 03:25:55 PMThe days of the red army faction are long gone.
There's a huge difference between naiive idiots who think we can just cancel money and then everyone will be happy and violent thugs who deem some people unworthy of existence and is enjoying a lie of success in the past decade.
This both sides stuff just doesn't reflect the reality that the far right is drastically worse than the far left.
The base of your pudding is decent, but could do with one or two fewer eggs.
It's true that the radical left has eschewed political violence (though it would be nice if they felt the same way about smashing up Starbucks and McDonalds), but the far right has, at least up to now, not engaged in or advocated extermination of minorities.
Quote from: Admiral Yi on April 09, 2022, 03:41:12 PM]
The base of your pudding is decent, but could do with one or two fewer eggs.
It's true that the radical left has eschewed political violence (though it would be nice if they felt the same way about smashing up Starbucks and McDonalds), but the far right has, at least up to now, not engaged in or advocated extermination of minorities.
Even Hitler didn't outright call for it.
It's clear from their language and their actions that this is the path they wish to tread however. It's particularly apparent with trans people.
What actions or words would that be?
Zemmour or Marine are not particularly interested in trans people, Josquius.
It seems that Melenchon is ahead by quite a lot in the outremer departments.
Quote from: The Larch on April 10, 2022, 11:03:22 AMIt seems that Melenchon is ahead by quite a lot in the outremer departments.
Hardly surprising, though I bet he is not ahead in Mayotte.
Abstention at 12:00 and 16:00 higher than the last presidential elections. Only higher in 2002, year of a big upset (Jospin out Le Pen father in).
QuoteWhat actions or words would that be?
Loads of examples out there. On the trans example for instance the whole manufactured toilet nonsense, the general language of cultural Marxism (literal nazi propeganda), book banning, warped appeals to science, etc...
Quote from: Duque de Bragança on April 10, 2022, 06:24:06 AMZemmour or Marine are not particularly interested in trans people, Josquius.
I was giving an American example to Yi.
As established France the lines are rather different. But pretty similar style shit from the fasc albeit differently targeted. I recall something about calling refugees savages, the mentioned great replacement conspiracies, etc...
Quote from: Josquius on April 10, 2022, 11:22:05 AMQuote from: Duque de Bragança on April 10, 2022, 06:24:06 AMZemmour or Marine are not particularly interested in trans people, Josquius.
I was giving an American example to Yi.
As established France the lines are rather different. But pretty similar style shit from the fasc albeit differently targeted. I recall something about calling refugees savages, the mentioned great replacement conspiracies, etc...
Your recollections and analyzes of French issues leave a lot to desire or are outright weird but don't bring the US stuff here. There are already threads about them.
(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FP_vmP8XoAg-BP6?format=jpg&name=medium)
Early exit polls, so far from definitive results since it is missing all the small candidates.
This would indicate pre-elections polls were correct but with Macron tied with Le Pen on one hand, and Zemmour with Pécresse on the other hand.
From la Libre Belgique twitter (no polls nor results before 20.00 so still 80 minutes left, as of this posting.
https://twitter.com/lalibrebe/status/1513191854518542342?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw%7Ctwcamp%5Etweetembed%7Ctwterm%5E1513191854518542342%7Ctwgr%5E%7Ctwcon%5Es1_&ref_url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.tdg.ch%2Fles-bureaux-de-vote-ont-ouvert-pour-le-1er-tour-de-la-presidentielle-904006015940 (https://twitter.com/lalibrebe/status/1513191854518542342?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw%7Ctwcamp%5Etweetembed%7Ctwterm%5E1513191854518542342%7Ctwgr%5E%7Ctwcon%5Es1_&ref_url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.tdg.ch%2Fles-bureaux-de-vote-ont-ouvert-pour-le-1er-tour-de-la-presidentielle-904006015940)
La Libre Belgique says now 24,7 % for Macro and 23,5 % for Marine.
It's 20.00 (UTC+2) so some results, semi-official:
Macron 28,6 %
Marine 24,2 %
Mélenchon third as predicted, around 20 %. Quite a performance in this context for the biggest poutinolâtre (primus inter pares?) of this campaign.
Disaster for Pécresse, under the 5% threshold, meaning among other most campaigning expenses won't be paid, and disappointment for Zemmour, under 7%.
:hmm:
Stronger than expected for Macron. For Le Pen that's about what the polls were saying.
The really striking thing is after 2017's immolation of the PS, the LR joining them. The two dominant parties even two elections ago on about 6-7% now:
(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FQAEfYHXMAoFViU?format=jpg&name=small)
Now the slightly worrying thing is in the system v anti-system framework, the anti-system candidates are on about 60%. Last time around Melenchon supported abstention I think, he'll probably do the same again - and turnout with that 20% will be key.
Pecress, Jadot and Roussel have already endorsed Macron to beat the far-right. Ciotti (who came second in the LR primary) won't vote for Macron. The key now is turnout - my worry is that this result might make people a little more comfortable come the second round.
Edit: Melenchon has, like last time, emphatically said none of his supporters should back Le Pen, but that's it.
Quote from: Sheilbh on April 10, 2022, 01:49:25 PMStronger than expected for Macron. For Le Pen that's about what the polls were saying.
Polls predicted both would be ahead, so not a big surprise. That's the strongest voting ever for the right of the right.
Macron is about average, that's somewhat positive, given the down trend he was until the elections
QuoteThe really striking thing is after 2017's immolation of the PS, the LR joining them. The two dominant parties even two elections ago on about 6-7% now:
Macro's primary objectives.
QuoteNow the slightly worrying thing is in the system v anti-system framework, the anti-system candidates are on about 60%. Last time around Melenchon supported abstention I think, he'll probably do the same again - and turnout with that 20% will be key.
He could also call for blank voting. :P Official line, "not a single vote to the extreme right". Almost a Macron endorsement. So much for an anti-system candidate. :D
QuotePecress, Jadot and Roussel have already endorsed Macron to beat the far-right. Ciotti (who came second in the LR primary) won't vote for Macron. The key now is turnout - my worry is that this result might make people a little more comfortable come the second round.
Pécresse really wants LR to disappear by saying so. Zemmour predicted it, incidentally.
However, that's not a party position so Ciotti or her electors are in no way bound, as LR reminded before the results.
Apparently Ria Novosti is reporting some "alternative facts":
(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FQAeIXVXIAg-5Hk?format=jpg&name=large)
Zemmour lost so that's good.
Very, very unlikely to happen but there's still about 3 million votes to count and Melenchon has closed the gap on Le Pen to about 950,000. Not likely - but not impossible, the rate appears to be flattening a little. But it certainly looks like the gap will be narrower than expected, he might be up to 22-23% :hmm:
(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FQBC7aRXoAEXI9Q?format=png&name=small)
Pecresse is now in fifth so has the humiliation of only being behind Macron, Le Pen, Melenchon and Zemmour - and not also the Greens. On just how catastrophic the night's been for PS she's behind them Lasalle's slight weirdness, the Communists (which I don't think has happened since the PS were created? :hmm:) and Dupont-Aignan.
The weirdness with the weakness of PS and LR - and this is what I mean by French presidential elections becoming a personalist form of democracy - is that they still dominate regional and local elections because they have a party infrastructure, activists etc. While at this level you have Macron - a redemptive leader who doesn't have a traditional party but "supporters"; Le Pen - who has a very small party structure and is, despite attempts to break this, based around these presidential elections; and Melenchon who is strongly for the whole idea of social movements, but again has not really created any of the normal infrastructure of a traditional democratic party. At some point it feels like those two democracies - traditional, left-right, party at the local level and populist/personalist at the national - will clash :hmm:
Quote from: Josquius on April 10, 2022, 11:22:05 AMLoads of examples out there. On the trans example for instance the whole manufactured toilet nonsense, the general language of cultural Marxism (literal nazi propeganda), book banning, warped appeals to science, etc...
I would like to defer to the wishes of the Le Pen fanboi and continue this discussion elsewhere but I can't find a suitable thread on the first six pages.
Quote from: Admiral Yi on April 10, 2022, 09:09:51 PMQuote from: Josquius on April 10, 2022, 11:22:05 AMLoads of examples out there. On the trans example for instance the whole manufactured toilet nonsense, the general language of cultural Marxism (literal nazi propeganda), book banning, warped appeals to science, etc...
I would like to defer to the wishes of the Le Pen fanboi and continue this discussion elsewhere but I can't find a suitable thread on the first six pages.
Make a new one?
Results by region:
(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FQDLfkKX0AMdm2K?format=png&name=900x900)
I'm not that clued in the minutia of French politics, but what were the most significant differences between Zemmour's and LePen's flavors of far right?
Again from a UK perspective this is so weird - basically Macron relies on the over-60s (that's a narrower age base than even the Tories here, where the cross-over age is 39):
(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FQC4XPMXIAAlRY_?format=png&name=small)
(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FQC4XnqXEAAO6dI?format=png&name=small)
Results in the main cities, where Macron and Melenchon take by far the most votes (Le Pen doesn't even crack the Top 5 in Paris, and only gets more than 10% in Marseille):
(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FQDnyIYXoAMeIN2?format=png&name=900x900)
(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FQDnyIbXMAQTrqU?format=png&name=900x900)
(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FQDnyIZXMAM-FEX?format=jpg&name=medium)
(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FQDoAfuWUAAxD1c?format=jpg&name=medium)
Quote from: Sheilbh on April 10, 2022, 06:13:35 PMVery, very unlikely to happen but there's still about 3 million votes to count and Melenchon has closed the gap on Le Pen to about 950,000. Not likely - but not impossible, the rate appears to be flattening a little. But it certainly looks like the gap will be narrower than expected, he might be up to 22-23% :hmm:
Mélenchon's remontada is over with Mélenchon's followers blaming the communists for making it to the run-off.
The communist candidate also had the "bad" idea of putting (quality) meat in his vision of French gastronomy along with wine (a couple of glasses only) and cheese, hence infuriating the the vegan and vegetarian wing of Mélenchon's party. :lol:
The same Mélenchon who in the previous election declared he switched to quinoa and lost 6 kilos. :D
QuotePecresse is now in fifth so has the humiliation of only being behind Macron, Le Pen, Melenchon and Zemmour - and not also the Greens. On just how catastrophic the night's been for PS she's behind them Lasalle's slight weirdness, the Communists (which I don't think has happened since the PS were created? :hmm:) and Dupont-Aignan.
If you say SFIO, the forefather of the PS, it happened most of the time but yes, starting with Mitterrand's
manipulation and then neutering of the PCF they have been consistenly behind.
As for Pécresse, saying she will vote for Macron shows for a lot of people her true colours, and dooms her party. LR won't have 50 % of the campaign paid as the 5% threshold so she already started an appeal to help pay for the campaign. She should send the bill to
Palais de l'Élysée
55 rue du Faubourg-Saint-Honoré
75008 Paris, France
:P
QuoteThe weirdness with the weakness of PS and LR - and this is what I mean by French presidential elections becoming a personalist form of democracy - is that they still dominate regional and local elections because they have a party infrastructure, activists etc. While at this level you have Macron - a redemptive leader who doesn't have a traditional party but "supporters"; Le Pen - who has a very small party structure and is, despite attempts to break this, based around these presidential elections; and Melenchon who is strongly for the whole idea of social movements, but again has not really created any of the normal infrastructure of a traditional democratic party. At some point it feels like those two democracies - traditional, left-right, party at the local level and populist/personalist at the national - will clash :hmm:
PS is pretty much dead outside of Paris and a few isolated outposts and/or in the way of total recycling by LREM. The same fate could await LR in the coming legislative elections.
RN is much more of a traditional party than LREM, like it or not, however, the lack of proportional representation hurts them a lot. They do fine on European elections as well, as a matter of fact.
Final results, according to the Interior Ministry:
(https://cdn.radiofrance.fr/s3/cruiser-production/2022/04/8aca89cf-5a20-4b5c-953b-c16ae4304a60/860_visactu-presidentielle-les-resultats-du-premier-tour-97-des-resultats-parvenus.jpg)
The last two, trotskyite parties, made almost 10% in 2007, and 10% if one includes the third Trot, Gérard Schivardi
Quote from: Duque de Bragança on April 11, 2022, 06:39:56 AMPS is pretty much dead outside of Paris and a few isolated outposts and/or in the way of total recycling by LREM. The same fate could await LR in the coming legislative elections.
Didn't the PS win the regional elections last year? In regional elections they're still the force - PS and LR between them got 60% of the vote, but then at a national, presidential level they're below 7%.
It's a clash of different structures of democracy - traditional party democracy in the regions and more personalist, movement, media democracy at the national level.
QuoteRN is much more of a traditional party than LREM, like it or not, however, the lack of proportional representation hurts them a lot. They do fine on European elections as well, as a matter of fact.
That's exactly what I said :huh:
Quote from: celedhring on April 11, 2022, 03:34:14 AMI'm not that clued in the minutia of French politics, but what were the most significant differences between Zemmour's and LePen's flavors of far right?
A bit to the left economically as in nationalisations of motorways (positively leftist or socialist by US standards), more of a social side with clinging on to retirement at 60 (if one started to work before 20 and having 40 full years of work) and a much toned down rhetoric on immigration though they are not that far apart, as in theory Pécresse (mere PR for her I believe).
In detail, Marine focussed on purchasing power, reinstating the wealth tax (partially removed by Macron), won't go back on medically assisted procreation for lesbians, no remigration minister (interior minister is enough) and has no qualms about accepting Ukrainian refugees. The last point Zemmour first said no saying they should be helped in neighbouring countries then somewhat changed but it's still not clear.
Bottom line, Zemmour made Marine look moderate or mainstream at least. The rest of their agendas are not too far apart.
Also Zemmour did best with out of touch, metropolitan fascist elites in Paris-XVI, while Le Pen's far-right style is more rural, small towns and villages :P
Quote from: Sheilbh on April 11, 2022, 06:45:51 AMDidn't the PS win the regional elections last year? In regional elections they're still the force - PS and LR between them got 60% of the vote, but then at a national, presidential level they're below 7%.
Nope, they were more or less tied with LR, with the capital region of Paris/Île-de-France (pun intended) going for Pécresse.
Obviously, that's way better than what they got now so it may pass as a victory but not one over LR.
RN was all hyped up but did not live to expectations, however.
QuoteThat's exactly what I said :huh:
Nope, you did not mention the proportional representation hurting RN and did not mention European elections.
Quote from: Sheilbh on April 11, 2022, 06:59:35 AMAlso Zemmour did best with out of touch, metropolitan fascist elites in Paris-XVI, while Le Pen's far-right style is more rural, small towns and villages :P
Fascist elites in Paris XVI ?! They are as conformist bourgeois as they come, so it's Macron all the way for them (46% for him, Zemmour distant second at 17.48 Pécresse not too far behind as third, above Marine).
Even Mélenchon was above Marine among your so-called out of touch metropolitan elite (that's Macron voters actually) fascist is wrong for both, despite Macron having authoritarian tendencies (e.g yellow vests repression and anti-terrorism laws made permanent) and Marine being at the helm of a party traditionally associated with authoritarianism.
Zemmour and Marine are also popular in the periurban areas (one area you significantly forgot or ignored) and yes rural, small tons and villages.
Zemmors is more like old-school RPR, vintage 1990.
PS: the parish with the integrist catholics is not in Paris XVI. There is a Léopold II street (yes that Belgian king) but that's all. The most expensive arrondissement has been Paris VII (Eiffel Tower) for a long while now.
Quote from: Duque de Bragança on April 11, 2022, 07:00:34 AMNope, they were more or less tied with LR, with the capital region of Paris/Île-de-France (pun intended) going for Pécresse.
Obviously, that's way better than what they got now so it may pass as a victory but not one over LR.
RN was all hyped up but did not live to expectations, however.
They won more regions than LR. And I don't fully understand how you can go from they're dead outside of Paris, to this point.
But also it's just not relevant to my point which is that the PS got less than 7% of the vote in 2017, they got under 2% now - in 2021 they won 30% of the vote and most regions and regional elections. The LR have collapsed to under 5% of the vote tonight - in 2021 they also won about 30% of the vote. These two traditional institutional parties that have been wiped out utterly in presidential elections over the last two, are still the dominant forces winning, between them, over 60% of the vote at regional elections.
My point is there are two models of democracy at different levels in France. One is still based on traditional party infrastructure, with its bureaucracy and activists and memberships etc. One is based on, above all, media and the individual leader inspiring temporary activists that has become increasingly untethered from traditional party structures in recent years. At some point I suspect those two models will collide or clash.
QuoteNope, you did not mention the proportional representation hurting RN and did not mention European elections.
Again my point was Macron and Melenchon don't have traditional party structures. The RN do but it's a very small party (as you said it is more of a traditional, normal party). It is interesting that those are the forces doing well in national elections without traditional mass party politics but then striking that they don't do great at the regional level when the party infrastructure of activists etc seems to still matter more.
I don't really see how that connects at all to the voting system which all parties operate in and which shapes the way politics works or European elections (often used to protest vote/kick the incumbent).
QuoteFascist elites in Paris XVI ?! They are as conformist bourgeois as they come, so it's Macron all the way for them (46% for him, Zemmour distant second at 17.48 Pécresse not too far behind as third, above Marine).
Even Mélenchon was above Marine among your so-called out of touch metropolitan elite (that's Macron voters) fascist is wrong for both, despite Macron having authoritarian tendencies (yellow vests anti-terrorism laws made permanent) and Marine being at the helm of a party traditionally associated with authoritarianism.
Yeah it's a joke based on the far right trope of out of touch metropolitan liberal elites v authentic/real voters - pointing out that those Zemmour did comparatively well in those areas v Le Pen. So Zemmour voters are the out of touch, metropolitan fascist elites, while Le Pen's are the salt of the earth, authentic far right.
Quote from: Sheilbh on April 11, 2022, 07:40:38 AMThey won more regions than LR. And I don't fully understand how you can go from they're dead outside of Paris, to this point.
:secret:
Jacobinist France means one region weights more than most. Try to compare how many seats in the Assemblée Nationale or Sénat (the other regional election) they have vs LR. Though as I said, LR might join soon.
I guess it will depend on the out of outch liberal fascist elites of Paris XVI willing to give carte blanche/
blanc-seing to Jupiter II.
QuoteBut also it's just not relevant to my point which is that the PS got less than 7% of the vote in 2017, they got under 2% now - in 2021 they won 30% of the vote and most regions and regional elections. The LR have collapsed to under 5% of the vote tonight - in 2021 they also won about 30% of the vote. These two traditional institutional parties that have been wiped out utterly in presidential elections over the last two, are still the dominant forces winning, between them, over 60% of the vote at regional elections.
A former PS member got elected as president in 2017, however. He even claimed to be socialist at a time, and claims to be a progressive despite being very much to the right, on economics (French-style not US).
A rise comparable to one described in a Flanby book
Un président ne devrait pas dire çahttps://livre.fnac.com/a9931247/Gerard-Davet-Un-president-ne-devrait-pas-dire-ca (https://livre.fnac.com/a9931247/Gerard-Davet-Un-president-ne-devrait-pas-dire-ca)
QuoteMy point is there are two models of democracy at different levels in France. One is still based on traditional party infrastructure, with its bureaucracy and activists and memberships etc. One is based on, above all, media and the individual leader inspiring temporary activists that has become increasingly untethered from traditional party structures in recent years. At some point I suspect those two models will collide or clash.
Clash or grand remplacement ? One supported and helped by Zemmour. :P
I still object to the RN being described as something other than a traditional party, despite Marine's rebrandings.
As for Macro's rump party, yes, you are spot on.
QuoteAgain my point was Macron and Melenchon don't have traditional party structures. The RN do but it's a very small party (as you said it is more of a traditional, normal party). It is interesting that those are the forces doing well in national elections without traditional mass party politics but then striking that they don't do great at the regional level when the party infrastructure of activists etc seems to still matter more.
If you think a copycat structure of Die Linke in Germany is not traditional these days, fine. Don't expect people to agree though. Mélenchon is pretty good at campaigning old-school style. PS apparatchik training shows but he is a better orator than Macro to give an example. Both are demagogs but Mélenchon is better at that game.
QuoteI don't really see how that connects at all to the voting system which all parties operate in and which shapes the way politics works or European elections (often used to protest vote/kick the incumbent).
Different elections have different systems and presidential elections can also be used to protest vote. Le Pen father specialty once.
Not to mention election systems can be altered if need be cf. Mitterand in 1986 granting proportional representation to avoid a total victory of the right by using the FN to mitigate losses and divide it.
QuoteYeah it's a joke based on the far right trope of out of touch metropolitan liberal elites v authentic/real voters - pointing out that those Zemmour did comparatively well in those areas v Le Pen. So Zemmour voters are the out of touch, metropolitan fascist elites, while Le Pen's are the salt of the earth, authentic far right.
Joke does not work for the French political landscape with Zemmour accusing Marine of left-leaning with Mélenchon. Yes, that's a bit far-fetched but the joke is there. :D
It felt like Zemmour knew he was not going to make it to the run-off, so panic mode but that's my opinion.
Incidentally, the sympathetic salt of the eath, authentic countryside candidate was Lasalle, accused by some in the bobo left of being a crypto-rightist/conspiracy theory peddler etc.
Originally, a Bayrou comrade.
So Melenchon is a lefty, right? And he and Macron are together taking about 60-65% of the polls, right?
So how is it possible that Macron and Le Pen are neck and neck in head to head polls? Are a chunk of Melenchon voters planning on voting for Le Pen in the run-off, a la Bernie brothers?
Quote from: Admiral Yi on April 11, 2022, 01:15:12 PMSo Melenchon is a lefty, right? And he and Macron are together taking about 60-65% of the polls, right?
So how is it possible that Macron and Le Pen are neck and neck in head to head polls? Are a chunk of Melenchon voters planning on voting for Le Pen in the run-off, a la Bernie brothers?
30% of Melenchon voters intended to vote for Le Pen in the 2nd round, I think I read somewhere. That's why Melenchon, rather than asking his voters to go for Macron in the 2nd round, asked them not to vote for Le Pen.
Dumbasses :bleeding:
Le Figaro has an article about it:
https://www.lefigaro.fr/politique/je-ne-veux-pas-de-macron-cinq-ans-de-plus-ces-insoumis-qui-voteront-le-pen-au-second-tour-de-la-presidentielle-20220411 (https://www.lefigaro.fr/politique/je-ne-veux-pas-de-macron-cinq-ans-de-plus-ces-insoumis-qui-voteront-le-pen-au-second-tour-de-la-presidentielle-20220411)
Says 25% not 30 %.
Macron is still the favorite for now with 54 vs 46.
Quote from: Admiral Yi on April 11, 2022, 01:15:12 PMSo Melenchon is a lefty, right? And he and Macron are together taking about 60-65% of the polls, right?
So how is it possible that Macron and Le Pen are neck and neck in head to head polls? Are a chunk of Melenchon voters planning on voting for Le Pen in the run-off, a la Bernie brothers?
I think there's two sides to it: system v anti-system and attitudes on the French left.
In France - and I think France and Italy are a little ahead of the European trend on this - traditional 20th century left v right politics is dead. It's been replaced by attitudes to the political system (with maybe an element of populism v technocracy to go - though almost all populists or technocrats look a lot like the other). Macron as the incumbent represents and leads that system, while Le Pen and Melenchon (and their voters) both explicitly want it overthrown - Melenchon's big campaign is for a VI Republic. Of course the irony here is that Macron started as an anti-system candidate - arguing that France needed to move past the sterile left v right debates and its old party systems. He's arguably the most successful anti-system politician in the world given the state of France's traditional, 20th century left and right parties. I think that explains the cross-overs - the everything needs shaking up instinct.
The other side is the state of the French left. It is difficult to overstate how much they loath Macron and how deep that loathing is. I don't hink there is anyone in France who would frame Macron as being on the left any more or linking his vote to Melenchon's in that way - even foreign correspondents will now right that he is either seen as or almost a centre-right President. I think the fact that he blew up their side to achieve his glory probably also stings and they are sick of holding their nose to vote - which is what's behind the probably bigger issue of abstention.
Plus if you look at the constellation of issues in this election for a Melenchon voter: "peace v militarism" in supporting Ukraine and cost of living, then there is a stronger link to Le Pen's campaign highlights than Macron's. Additionaly over the last five years Macron has tried to de-fang Le Pen on issues of immigration and Islam with his campaign against "Islamoleftism", his thinktank against "woke" or his Interior Minister saying Le Pen is too soft on Islam. Then in this campaign you've had Zemmour far beyond Le Pen in rhetoric and both him and Pecresse talking about the "great replacement" - which Le Pen has dismissed as a conspiracy theory. The combination of Macron's political choices in the last five years and this campaign have actually made Le Pen seem more of a moderate/acceptable option and removed the focus from identity, Islam and immigration which is probably where she is still the most toxic for Melenchon supporters.
Given this was the situation in 2017, I'd be surprised if more Melenchon voters swing behind Macron than last time. As it looks like they're less likely to abstain - that leaves us with more likely swinging behind Le Pen:
(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FQD10X_WUA4LaTU?format=png&name=small)
Quote30% of Melenchon voters intended to vote for Le Pen in the 2nd round, I think I read somewhere. That's why Melenchon, rather than asking his voters to go for Macron in the 2nd round, asked them not to vote for Le Pen.
He did the same in 2017 - it's because Melenchon will refuse to endorse Macron - he hates Macron. But will say not one vote to Le Pen. Which is a little different than go and vote for Macron.
Edit: And in a way that system v anti-system has its own urban/rural divide. In cities if you want to vote against the city you go for Melenchon, everywhere else Le Pen/Zemmour.
@Shelf: that sounds almost exactly like the Bernie Bros, so I repeat: dumbasses.
An infantile belief in fighting "the system" combined with a childish grudge.
Quote from: Admiral Yi on April 11, 2022, 02:22:57 PM@Shelf: that sounds almost exactly like the Bernie Bros, so I repeat: dumbasses.
An infantile belief in fighting "the system" combined with a childish grudge.
Well except Bernie Bros didn't vote for Trump any more than PUMAs stayed at home. It's just a Democratic moral panic they have every four years.
And you might not like it but I think it's probably the future of European politics - this politics of style system/anti-system or populism/technocracy however you want to frame it. We may regret removing the left v right ideological content and institutions from politics.
Edit: Or, arguably, the future's central/east European post-ideological politics: billionaires, pirates and all.
Quote from: Sheilbh on April 11, 2022, 02:28:10 PMWell except Bernie Bros didn't vote for Trump any more than PUMAs stayed at home. It's just a Democratic moral panic they have every four years.
And you might not like it but I think it's probably the future of European politics - this politics of style system/anti-system or populism/technocracy however you want to frame it. We may regret removing the left v right ideological content and institutions from politics.
Edit: Or, arguably, the future's central/east European post-ideological politics: billionaires, pirates and all.
Whatever a PUMA is, they can't be worse than Bernie Bros who cut off their own nose to spite their face.
It may be the future of European politics and I will continue to express my disdain for it.
Quote from: Admiral Yi on April 11, 2022, 02:22:57 PM@Shelf: that sounds almost exactly like the Bernie Bros, so I repeat: dumbasses.
An infantile belief in fighting "the system" combined with a childish grudge.
You're still thinking in terms of left & right. While the distinction still holds true for moderates, it's not so for extremists (for that is what many Melenchon voters are). Indeed, like Shelf said, left & right is less important these days, and the real faultlines are between moderates & extremists.
Quote from: Admiral Yi on April 11, 2022, 02:33:57 PMWhatever a PUMA is, they can't be worse than Bernie Bros who cut off their own nose to spite their face.
Party Unity My Ass - the alleged Clinton dead-enders in 2008. Had about as much impact as Bernie Bros.
QuoteIt may be the future of European politics and I will continue to express my disdain for it.
:lol: You should probably look away now :console:
QuoteYou're still thinking in terms of left & right. While the distinction still holds true for moderates, it's not so for extremists (for that is what many Melenchon voters are). Indeed, like Shelf said, left & right is less important these days, and the real faultlines are between moderates & extremists.
Although I wouldn't frame it as moderate v extremist. The most successful anti-system cndidate has been Macron who blew up the left v right framework of French politics in 2017. He's a moderate, of a sort. I think Renzi tried something similar from within the PD before (like a scorpion on a frog) he betrayed everyone and had to found his own less successful party. There's also basically only slightly ideological movements - like M5S which also doesn't fit into a moderate v extremist framework. And parties that want to experiment with new methods of democracy - more online, direct democracy (though M5S were once big on that) or use of citizens assemblies.
Arguably it all starts with the Green movement that doesn't really sit on a strictly left v right or social democratic/Christian democratic/liberal framework?
Yellow Vests, not just them actually, would disagree with you about Macron being a moderate.
Quote from: Duque de Bragança on April 11, 2022, 02:48:13 PMYellow Vests, not just them actually, would disagree with you about Macron being a moderate.
When you're on the brown red extreme the centre is the extreme no? :p
Quote from: Josquius on April 11, 2022, 03:15:05 PMQuote from: Duque de Bragança on April 11, 2022, 02:48:13 PMYellow Vests, not just them actually, would disagree with you about Macron being a moderate.
When you're on the brown red extreme the centre is the extreme no? :p
Macron is good at polarising moderates into extremists, (Yellow Vests did start rather peacefully), that's antithetic to moderation, I would say.
Quote from: Duque de Bragança on April 11, 2022, 03:21:15 PMQuote from: Josquius on April 11, 2022, 03:15:05 PMQuote from: Duque de Bragança on April 11, 2022, 02:48:13 PMYellow Vests, not just them actually, would disagree with you about Macron being a moderate.
When you're on the brown red extreme the centre is the extreme no? :p
Macron is good at polarising moderates into extremists, (Yellow Vests did start rather peacefully), that's antithetic to moderation, I would say.
Sarkozy's government was accused of the same. What is it that minister said? "Rif-raf from the suburbs"?
Quote from: Duque de Bragança on April 11, 2022, 03:21:15 PMQuote from: Josquius on April 11, 2022, 03:15:05 PMQuote from: Duque de Bragança on April 11, 2022, 02:48:13 PMYellow Vests, not just them actually, would disagree with you about Macron being a moderate.
When you're on the brown red extreme the centre is the extreme no? :p
Macron is good at polarising moderates into extremists, (Yellow Vests did start rather peacefully), that's antithetic to moderation, I would say.
Protests in France are never peaceful. What PRECISELY did Macron do that turned the mellow yellow vests into pyromaniacs?
Please give concrete examples.
Quote from: Zoupa on April 11, 2022, 05:36:16 PMProtests in France are never peaceful. What PRECISELY did Macron do that turned the mellow yellow vests into pyromaniacs?
Please give concrete examples.
Protests were quite peaceful in the beginning, even most macronolâtres agree. Pensioners, lower middle-class workers and employées demonstrating calmly at roundabouts by letting pass most people is not violence.
Or are you mixing it up with the typical "celebration" by banlieue inassimilated types on the Champs-Élysées following a victory of the French (or Algerian) football squad?
The lack of preparation and consultation, doubling down on repression when it was already too late to amend the project (Jupiter created quite a few cyclopes), bad policing, as in badly led police doing nothing against black blocks but going after regular types, late concessions only after severe rioting so too late (doubtful anyways since lots of measures were simply suspended back then).
The only thing where Macron is very moderate is competence, see the mismanagement of the Covid pandemic. One example, visiting Dr Raoult granting him a veneer of legitimity and furthering covidiocy. Even the early vaccination campaign was botched, despite having a year to prepare it.
You are so out of touch with the French situation that it seems useless to be honest. Don't you have family in the old country?
As for the absolute lack of moderation of Macron, try "il n'y a pas de culture française" (please also check his other classist gaffes) or for the yellow vests this one
https://www.amnesty.fr/liberte-d-expression/actualites/france-milliers-de-manifestants-pacifiques-arbitrairement-arretes-et-poursuivis (https://www.amnesty.fr/liberte-d-expression/actualites/france-milliers-de-manifestants-pacifiques-arbitrairement-arretes-et-poursuivis)
Not to mention he or his lackeys peddling conspiracy theories, about how the far left or far right (depending on the circumstances) was behind the movement or some foreign power (Italy).
I guess granny Brigitte was not around to moderate him.
https://www.huffingtonpost.fr/2019/01/10/cagnottes-marlene-schiappa-soupconne-les-puissances-etrangeres-au-vu-de-la-position-de-litalie_a_23639004/ (https://www.huffingtonpost.fr/2019/01/10/cagnottes-marlene-schiappa-soupconne-les-puissances-etrangeres-au-vu-de-la-position-de-litalie_a_23639004/)
All that nonsense made it quite easy for Ruffin (LFI) to make a documentary contrasting the harsh statements of Micron and his ilk with those of the (early) yellow vests. Binary at times, but a field day for the radical left.
https://fr.wikipedia.org/wiki/J%27veux_du_soleil_(film) (https://fr.wikipedia.org/wiki/J%27veux_du_soleil_(film))
Even the protests and demonstration in the Champs-Élysées traditionally used as an opportunity by the racaille to loot and riot were not at first violent.
You do realize there is a world beyond city centres where the prices of fuel is not as important as in periurban, small-town and countryside France?
Quote from: viper37 on April 11, 2022, 05:17:37 PMSarkozy's government was accused of the same. What is it that minister said? "Rif-raf from the suburbs"?
Sarkozy caused a tempest in a media teapot but nothing comparable to the yellow vest movement. Biggest since May '68.
Sarkozy's remark is closer to a remark made by Chevènement, a PS old guard minister (left-wing sovereignist), about "sauvageons" in the banlieues.
"racaille" is actually proudly claimed by banlieue thugs so the outrage is really bogus for one who knows a bit the situation.
Quote from: Duque de Bragança on April 12, 2022, 07:25:43 AMQuote from: Zoupa on April 11, 2022, 05:36:16 PMProtests in France are never peaceful. What PRECISELY did Macron do that turned the mellow yellow vests into pyromaniacs?
Please give concrete examples.
Protests were quite peaceful in the beginning, even most macronolâtres agree. Pensioners, lower middle-class workers and employées demonstrating calmly at roundabouts by letting pass most people is not violence.
[/quote]
I never said it was.
QuoteOr are you mixing it up with the typical "celebration" by banlieue inassimilated types on the Champs-Élysées following a victory of the French (or Algerian) football squad?
That has nothing to do with the discussion, but you show your true colours pretty early there.
QuoteThe lack of preparation and consultation, doubling down on repression when it was already too late to amend the project (Jupiter created quite a few cyclopes), bad policing, as in badly led police doing nothing against black blocks but going after regular types, late concessions only after severe rioting so too late (doubtful anyways since lots of measures were simply suspended back then).
So you're saying any of these things caused the protest to turn violent? Just because you don't like him doesn't make Macron omnipotent. I also like your "regular types". So your tribe is the real France, not those unassimilated types, gotcha.
QuoteThe only thing where Macron is very moderate is competence, see the mismanagement of the Covid pandemic. One example, visiting Dr Raoult granting him a veneer of legitimity and furthering covidiocy. Even the early vaccination campaign was botched, despite having a year to prepare it.
Unrelated to the discussion.
QuoteYou are so out of touch with the French situation that it seems useless to be honest. Don't you have family in the old country?
Once again, you and your tribe are the only real France, only your opinion is relevant and accurate. Gotcha.
QuoteAs for the absolute lack of moderation of Macron, try "il n'y a pas de culture française" (please also check his other classist gaffes) or for the yellow vests this one
https://www.amnesty.fr/liberte-d-expression/actualites/france-milliers-de-manifestants-pacifiques-arbitrairement-arretes-et-poursuivis (https://www.amnesty.fr/liberte-d-expression/actualites/france-milliers-de-manifestants-pacifiques-arbitrairement-arretes-et-poursuivis)
Unrelated to the discussion.
QuoteNot to mention he or his lackeys peddling conspiracy theories, about how the far left or far right (depending on the circumstances) was behind the movement or some foreign power (Italy).
I guess granny Brigitte was not around to moderate him.
https://www.huffingtonpost.fr/2019/01/10/cagnottes-marlene-schiappa-soupconne-les-puissances-etrangeres-au-vu-de-la-position-de-litalie_a_23639004/ (https://www.huffingtonpost.fr/2019/01/10/cagnottes-marlene-schiappa-soupconne-les-puissances-etrangeres-au-vu-de-la-position-de-litalie_a_23639004/)
And this caused the protests to turn violent? Man, that Macron is really powerful. No wonder you fear him. He can cause people to burn shit down with just a few words!
QuoteAll that nonsense made it quite easy for Ruffin (LFI) to make a documentary contrasting the harsh statements of Micron and his ilk with those of the (early) yellow vests. Binary at times, but a field day for the radical left.
https://fr.wikipedia.org/wiki/J%27veux_du_soleil_(film) (https://fr.wikipedia.org/wiki/J%27veux_du_soleil_(film))
Even the protests and demonstration in the Champs-Élysées traditionally used as an opportunity by the racaille to loot and riot were not at first violent.
You do realize there is a world beyond city centres where the prices of fuel is not as important as in periurban, small-town and countryside France?
And 3rd time's the charm, only your tribe is the real France. Anyone not in your tribe, their opinion doesn't matter. They're not real French.
In resume, you're a petit bourgeois boulangiste who just doesn't like brown people. Tell us again how you're gonna vote blank in 2 weeks :lol:
Quote from: Zoupa on April 12, 2022, 09:37:34 AMI never said it was.
Liar. Le pompier pyromane c'est Macron, pas les gilets jaunes. Mellow is another of your inventions but radicalisation only happened late and was just a minority, excluding most the early wave.
QuoteOr are you mixing it up with the typical "celebration" by banlieue inassimilated types on the Champs-Élysées following a victory of the French (or Algerian) football squad?
QuoteThat has nothing to do with the discussion, but you show your true colours pretty early there.
That shows I know the local situation and that you are a collabo of racailles. By the way, negating any misgivings by Algerian thugs does quite a disservice to those Algerians who don't behave in such a manner.
Of course, why is it Algerian football "fans" and not Moroccan or Tunisian besides who share some of the social predicaments, will have to be left for another time.
Why do you think people in France are happy the victory of Cameroon over Algeria in the African qualifyers for the Wahhabi World Cup?
QuoteSo you're saying any of these things caused the protest to turn violent? Just because you don't like him doesn't make Macron omnipotent. I also like your "regular types". So your tribe is the real France, not those unassimilated types, gotcha.
I never said he was omnipotent, however he implied it as in wanting to be a "jupiterian" president in Challenges magazine. Assimilated people of foreign descent are obviously far more valuable than unassimilated antisocial basket cases. It's obvious, except for you it seems.
QuoteThe only thing where Macron is very moderate is competence, see the mismanagement of the Covid pandemic. One example, visiting Dr Raoult granting him a veneer of legitimity and furthering covidiocy. Even the early vaccination campaign was botched, despite having a year to prepare it.
Unrelated to the discussion? Truth hurts. Marseille idol a little too close to you? As a (former) pharmacist you should know better.
A competent moderate would have done a little homework before meeting him.
QuoteOnce again, you and your tribe are the only real France, only your opinion is relevant and accurate. Gotcha.
Tribes are so pre-Roman Gaul. Sorry, it's over. Alésia and all that. It's nation these days.
As for opinion being relevant, of course it is. More so than petit bourgeois out-of-touch people or even possibly grand bourgeois who at least are honest in their pro-Macron leanings (Pécresse excluded).
https://www.amnesty.fr/liberte-d-expression/actualites/france-milliers-de-manifestants-pacifiques-arbitrairement-arretes-et-poursuivis (https://www.amnesty.fr/liberte-d-expression/actualites/france-milliers-de-manifestants-pacifiques-arbitrairement-arretes-et-poursuivis)[/quote]
QuoteUnrelated to the discussion.
Truth hurts again. No moderation in the policing is perfectly relevant. Cops are following orders, orders given by Castaner (PS nobody before), a minister chosen by Macron.
QuoteNot to mention he or his lackeys peddling conspiracy theories, about how the far left or far right (depending on the circumstances) was behind the movement or some foreign power (Italy).
I guess granny Brigitte was not around to moderate him.
https://www.huffingtonpost.fr/2019/01/10/cagnottes-marlene-schiappa-soupconne-les-puissances-etrangeres-au-vu-de-la-position-de-litalie_a_23639004/ (https://www.huffingtonpost.fr/2019/01/10/cagnottes-marlene-schiappa-soupconne-les-puissances-etrangeres-au-vu-de-la-position-de-litalie_a_23639004/)
QuoteAnd this caused the protests to turn violent? Man, that Macron is really powerful. No wonder you fear him. He can cause people to burn shit down with just a few words!
Nice try, but I did not say that. It just shows how the so-called moderation of Macron is a myth. A more competent macronolâtre than you would claim conspiracy theorists are far more to be found in the yellow vests (debatable) and would argue inaccurate information and try to retract these statements.
Thanks for showing your true colours of a Macron useful idiot.
QuoteAll that nonsense made it quite easy for Ruffin (LFI) to make a documentary contrasting the harsh statements of Micron and his ilk with those of the (early) yellow vests. Binary at times, but a field day for the radical left.
https://fr.wikipedia.org/wiki/J%27veux_du_soleil_(film) (https://fr.wikipedia.org/wiki/J%27veux_du_soleil_(film))
QuoteAnd 3rd time's the charm, only your tribe is the real France. Anyone not in your tribe, their opinion doesn't matter. They're not real French.
By giving an exemple from a declared radical leftist, I show that my so-called "tribe" is the one and only, that tribe being the radical left ?
FYI, I am not a radical leftist, I am able to take into account other opinions, however differing from mine. Something macronolâtres like you cannot.
QuoteIn resume, you're a petit bourgeois boulangiste who just doesn't like brown people. Tell us again how you're gonna vote blank in 2 weeks :lol:
Boulangiste? No more fascist, nazi, zemmourien, lepéniste or the dog whistling far-right? I am disappointed. Boulanger was not against brown people and neither am I.
As for the brown people racism accusation, most muslim/islamist votes go to Mélenchon and will end up voting for Macron anyways.
They don't really like other ethnicities but Jew-hatred is really special
über alles for them, not just Zemmour. You still don't want to hear them about blacks, specially non-muslim ones (football games with North African vs Black African banlieue clubs are quite revealing).
Or did you forget who has been killing Jews in France lately?
Early Bayrou would have been boulangiste I guess, by your standards.
:secret:
I live in Paris, smart arse. I just happen to have some empathy for human beings outside the
périphérique.
Sorry for not living up to the cliché, but it's only funny as a joke, at best.
You are the petit bourgeois out of touch who emigrated to the Liberal paradise of Chrétien and Trudeau.
I am a son of immigrants, a worker and an employee, and am in no way a petit-bourgeois by social status/Money (your de facto PS recycled cf. your avatar, macronolâtre standard ). An ethnic minority actually but assimilated.
Since voting blank triggers you as much as voting Marine (reminder Jean-Marie is retired now) blank is enough. I still have some significant differences with Marine, despite your best efforts or those of your boy's lackey Darmanin in an awful PR stunt saying Marine was going soft to antagonise anyone not fond of Macron.
This can go on and on but unless you have something significantly new as in supported by some ground knowledge, or dare I dream facts, your patronising moralising attitude will get you nowhere. Even an answer as a foolhardy attempt to educate you about the current situation in France is far from guaranteed.
I still follow and am able to understand Portuguese issues (even voting when the PS govt allows me to vote by not underfunding the voting abroad that is) so you could try to be not as estranged from your homeland as I am from Portugal. And no it's not a voting pattern à la islamist in France, where they vote for the pro full immigration parties (somewhat classic liberal left à la macron and others) and then islamist/nationalist in their original country.
I wish you 2 would have this argument in french. Serait beaucoup plus authentique.
I'm still looking forward to you outlining what you actually believe in and support, Duque De Braganca- if you're up for it.
Yeah, please detail which shade of brown you prefer your shirts in.
Quote from: Grey Fox on April 13, 2022, 09:05:59 AMI wish you 2 would have this argument in french. Serait beaucoup plus authentique.
J'ai pourtant mis quelques expressions françaises dedans. :frog:
Si c'était 100% en français, il n'y aurait guère que les francophones qui comprendraient, ce serait assez discriminatoire. :goodboy:
Quote from: Zoupa on April 13, 2022, 10:43:49 AMYeah, please detail which shade of brown you prefer your shirts in.
Brown shirts? Nah, that would be cultural appropriation.
As I was saying in the Ukraine thread, apparently LePen is for strategic reconciliation between Russia and NATO "as soon as the war is over" and has also expressed doubts about military aid to Ukraine.
Independently of any other political position, that makes her fucking terrible as far as I'm concerned.
Putinolatry is indeed a big issue, shared with Zemmour, Mélenchon and the communist candidate.
She has made some progress on the issue though how sincere it is remains to be seen, to say the least. :hmm:
QuoteLe Pen has changed tack on Russia since the war in Ukraine and said she was "independent" of any foreign nation.
The news conference, designed to present Le Pen as a credible figure on the global stage, was briefly interrupted by a protester brandishing a heart-shaped picture of Le Pen and Putin, who was quickly dragged out by security guards.
Le Pen emphasised that better ties with Russia would also prevent Moscow from becoming too close to China, noting that she was echoing an argument made by Macron in the past.
"This is in the interest of France and Europe but also I think the United States ... which has no interest in seeing a close Sino-Russian relationship emerging," Le Pen said.
https://www.france24.com/en/france/20220413-le-pen-wants-france-out-of-nato-integrated-command-backs-nato-russia-links
She also unsurprisingly supported Macron's pro-Greek stance vs Erdogan's Turkey, unlike self-declared pro-EU and pro-NATO Merkel, if I may add. :whistle:
Ultimately however, French politics are local and Macron's record leaves a lot to desire.
So both have their respective Achilles' Heel.
Quote from: PJL on April 11, 2022, 02:35:49 PMYou're still thinking in terms of left & right. While the distinction still holds true for moderates, it's not so for extremists (for that is what many Melenchon voters are). Indeed, like Shelf said, left & right is less important these days, and the real faultlines are between moderates & extremists.
That's pretty much my point. I don't know exactly which issues divide left and right in France, but I think it's moronic to think that fighting "the system" is more important than those issues.
Quote from: Admiral Yi on April 13, 2022, 02:01:18 PMQuote from: PJL on April 11, 2022, 02:35:49 PMYou're still thinking in terms of left & right. While the distinction still holds true for moderates, it's not so for extremists (for that is what many Melenchon voters are). Indeed, like Shelf said, left & right is less important these days, and the real faultlines are between moderates & extremists.
That's pretty much my point. I don't know exactly which issues divide left and right in France, but I think it's moronic to think that fighting "the system" is more important than those issues.
We are talking about extremists. Moronic is their whole thing.
Though I do think there'll be a sizable chunk of the far left and far right who are true blue (err brown /red) and would never support the other.
But in the case of the far left there's accelerationist idiocy to consider....
Quote from: Zoupa on April 13, 2022, 10:43:49 AMYeah, please detail which shade of brown you prefer your shirts in.
is everyone to the right of Jospin a fascist?
Quote from: viper37 on April 17, 2022, 02:25:50 PMQuote from: Zoupa on April 13, 2022, 10:43:49 AMYeah, please detail which shade of brown you prefer your shirts in.
is everyone to the right of Jospin a fascist?
Bad example, Jospin recognised in 2007 that "anti-fascism" in the Mitterand years was theatre. :P
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=niC9Bgyt7PA (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=niC9Bgyt7PA)
So, from Jospin in. :D
In other campaign news, Marine and Jupiter agree at last on something:
https://www.lemonde.fr/politique/article/2022/04/15/election-presidentielle-2022-emmanuel-macron-et-marine-le-pen-s-accordent-pour-denoncer-les-blocages-de-facultes_6122333_823448.html (https://www.lemonde.fr/politique/article/2022/04/15/election-presidentielle-2022-emmanuel-macron-et-marine-le-pen-s-accordent-pour-denoncer-les-blocages-de-facultes_6122333_823448.html)
Some leftist students are not happy with the run-off candidates, not just Marine, and are using as an excuse to prevent classes and exams.
So Marine and Macro call for an end to it.
Allegations by EU's anti-corruption investigation body that LePen - and LePen Sr. and Louis Aliot - has misused hundreds of thousands of Euros in EU funding. A similar accusation was levelled against some Danish politicians a few years back as well - basically EU funds were used to pay for national political events, merchandise, and staffing by pretending it was used for EU purposes.
It'll be interesting to see if it makes a difference.
Quote from: Jacob on April 18, 2022, 10:58:02 AMAllegations by EU's anti-corruption investigation body that LePen - and LePen Sr. and Louis Aliot - has misused hundreds of thousands of Euros in EU funding. A similar accusation was levelled against some Danish politicians a few years back as well - basically EU funds were used to pay for national political events, merchandise, and staffing by pretending it was used for EU purposes.
It'll be interesting to see if it makes a difference.
Yeah it would not surprise me at all. I'm not entirely sure it's helpful timing though.
The polling seems to have leveled out again at about 55/45 which is where it was a few months ago. It's still not as comfortable as I'd like, but doesn't seem to be moving. I understand Macron has actually started campaigning properly now. So I suspect a lot will probably wait on the debate - I imagine that Le Pen has practiced and worked on the debate a lot after last time which was a disaster for her. On the other hand that probably means expectations management is tough for Macron's team.
Something similar (fictitious jobs paid by EU money) happened to Bayrou's party as well, ending his short-lived stint as Macron's minister back in 2017 (35 days).
I believe it comes too late to make a difference. Besides, it's no conviction.
Yeah, I think it was a pretty common "clever loophole" folks used, and some of those chickens are coming home to roost now.
It's not going to make a difference this late, but it can provide ammo for Macron during the debate.
Quote from: Jacob on April 18, 2022, 10:58:02 AMAllegations by EU's anti-corruption investigation body that LePen - and LePen Sr. and Louis Aliot - has misused hundreds of thousands of Euros in EU funding. A similar accusation was levelled against some Danish politicians a few years back as well - basically EU funds were used to pay for national political events, merchandise, and staffing by pretending it was used for EU purposes.
It'll be interesting to see if it makes a difference.
Going off the UK isn't a good idea with France but, I can only imagine if this happened in Britain that those inclined to support Le Pen would come out with "of course the corrupt EU would say that! They're scared she will upset their gravy train!"
(always the bloody gravy train. No idea where they get this from)
Politically that is probably the smartest line. "Confident that we'll be vindicated. Convenient that it came out one week before the election" etc.
IIRC this is not the first time the EU has accused Le Pen of misuse of public funds from her time as a MEP.
https://twitter.com/renaldinhos/status/1516067712333754373
QuoteDavid Mosquera
@renaldinhos
Michael Scott as Emmanuel Macron: a thread
Quote from: celedhring on April 19, 2022, 02:14:04 AMhttps://twitter.com/renaldinhos/status/1516067712333754373
QuoteDavid Mosquera
@renaldinhos
Michael Scott as Emmanuel Macron: a thread
Not very convincing and Michael Scott deserves better. :P
(https://m.media-amazon.com/images/I/61SXkYfO-4S._AC_SL1000_.jpg)
Already mentioned but a reminder was needed. Pity for the recently deceased actor (lastl February) it came too late.
How did the debate go? Most expert opinions I'm reading are kinda split on who won the debate, which I guess it's fine for Macron.
Macron has pulled ahead a little in the polls but I'm still sweating this.
Quote from: celedhring on April 21, 2022, 07:45:33 AMHow did the debate go? Most expert opinions I'm reading are kinda split on who won the debate, which I guess it's fine for Macron.
Macron has pulled ahead a little in the polls but I'm still sweating this.
It does sound like it just entrenched pre-existing notions.
Macron apparently sounded arrogant with his pesky facts against Le Pen's ramblings.
Le Pen pulled a Trump and smirked every time Macron spoke before throwing out more nonsense; really giving a sense of wink wink, we all know this is bollocks but that's the fun of it, own teh libs.
Hopefully it could have swayed some anti-Macron folks into going with shit rather than suicidal?
Heard a survey result on NPR that 59% thought Macron won and 39% thought Le Pen won.
Quote from: Admiral Yi on April 21, 2022, 11:35:45 AMHeard a survey result on NPR that 59% thought Macron won and 39% thought Le Pen won.
59% and 39% of whom? French people viewing the debate?
Quote from: Jacob on April 21, 2022, 11:37:11 AM59% and 39% of whom? French people viewing the debate?
I assume.
Famous last words and all, but I am shocked that anyone is even remotely worried about it. Macron is going to win in a landslide.
Quote from: Habbaku on April 21, 2022, 12:08:09 PMFamous last words and all, but I am shocked that anyone is even remotely worried about it. Macron is going to win in a landslide.
The polls are back to a 10-point gap 55-45, which is good. Less good than last time's 66-34 gap.
The worry is turn-out/rates of abstention from the Melenchon voters and others mainly on the left rather than direct transfers (though there'll be some). I'm surprised Macron hasn't made a gesture to the left this campaign - for example after two PMs of the right he could have said he'd appoint someone from the left.
QuoteHow did the debate go? Most expert opinions I'm reading are kinda split on who won the debate, which I guess it's fine for Macron.
Macron has pulled ahead a little in the polls but I'm still sweating this.
From what I've read - vastly better than last time for Le Pen.
Macron was apparently good - he had details and facts and scored a hit on Putin as Le Pen's banker. But he also came across as arrogant and dismissive, which plays into all the reasons loads of French people really loath him.
Le Pen was better thant 2017 but still not great. She was better on the substantive stuff than last time but there was no special moment.
From what I've seen, Macron failed to re-toxify her, she failed to have a big break-out moment. So basically it's a holding pattern.
Really depends on whom you ask. Media appreciation varies. Some people believe Macron was a tad aggressive. As for arrogant (suffisant in the other French meaning that's par for the course) if confirmed.
I suspect the debate won't change much anyways.
Did not watch it in its entirety (last one I watched was in 2007) since they have been a bore to sit through with less than gifted debated these past years so I can't really comment.
A debate with Zemmour or even Mélenchon would have been more entertaining I suspect.
Given the polling, I expect it's going to be closer than what they say. So 52-48 to Macron.
Quote from: PJL on April 21, 2022, 01:27:43 PMGiven the polling, I expect it's going to be closer than what they say. So 52-48 to Macron.
That'd be enough to set me on five years of anxiety given that he's term-limited, has wiped out both of the mainstream parties of centre right and left, might not have a real "party" to hand over and I'm not sure if he has a natural successor :ph34r:
Maybe Philippe? :hmm: But that's a post-Sunday stress-out.
Ok but if Macron wins this will be his last term...so what next? Are we going to have radical left wing nut vs radical right wing nut in 2027?
Quote from: celedhring on April 19, 2022, 02:14:04 AMhttps://twitter.com/renaldinhos/status/1516067712333754373
QuoteDavid Mosquera
@renaldinhos
Michael Scott as Emmanuel Macron: a thread
I think this has been a good election for memes. My favourite - but I love a 36 plot political compass - was the Macron political compass :lol:
(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FQkuyjdVgAAlf3q?format=jpg&name=medium)
Quote from: Valmy on April 21, 2022, 02:34:48 PMOk but if Macron wins this will be his last term...so what next? Are we going to have radical left wing nut vs radical right wing nut in 2027?
Après moi, le déluge ! :D
PS: nice recap for Macron, Sheilbh. :P
Quote from: Valmy on April 21, 2022, 02:34:48 PMOk but if Macron wins this will be his last term...so what next? Are we going to have radical left wing nut vs radical right wing nut in 2027?
I suppose Macron will eventually appoint a co-princeps. Not sure how that will work, though.
French politics are in a bit of a pickle.
Quote from: celedhring on April 22, 2022, 07:24:49 AMQuote from: Valmy on April 21, 2022, 02:34:48 PMOk but if Macron wins this will be his last term...so what next? Are we going to have radical left wing nut vs radical right wing nut in 2027?
I suppose Macron will eventually appoint a co-princeps. Not sure how that will work, though.
French politics are in a bit of a pickle.
Yeah I don't know about 2027 - assuming Macron wins (and he should - lead up to 12% now).
It doesn't seem to me to be impossible that you have a France Insoumise (though possibly not with Melenchon?) v RN Presidential election. On the other hand maybe the old parties with their infrastructure of activists, success in regional elections, presence in legislative elections (which may increase this year because I don't think voters necessarily want to give Macron a majority again) - maybe they can come roaring back if they find the right candidates, they have the infrastructure for it. Or maybe Macron is able to convert LREM into more of a proper party and find a candidate who can do about as well - winning around 25% of the vote in the first round.
He needs to win now, but what happens next is a concern :ph34r:
He wins now, someone destructive in 2027 wins & Macron is back for 2033.
Or Jupiter could use the promised seven-year term reform to get two more mandates. :P
Quote from: Duque de Bragança on April 22, 2022, 08:03:21 AMOr Jupiter could use the promised seven-year term reform to get two more mandates. :P
It was seven years before, so it is not so much a reform but a restoration.
Quote from: Valmy on April 22, 2022, 12:15:33 PMQuote from: Duque de Bragança on April 22, 2022, 08:03:21 AMOr Jupiter could use the promised seven-year term reform to get two more mandates. :P
It was seven years before, so it is not so much a reform but a restoration.
So much for Macron's Nouveau Monde. :P
https://www.francetvinfo.fr/politique/emmanuel-macron/desintox-nouveau-monde-les-marcheurs-ont-la-memoire-courte_2826151.html (https://www.francetvinfo.fr/politique/emmanuel-macron/desintox-nouveau-monde-les-marcheurs-ont-la-memoire-courte_2826151.html)
I think last polls before the election Macron in the lead as you'd expect with a range from 57-53%. I think he might do better than that. Perversely I think there's so much dislike of Macron that France may have shy centrists :ph34r:
Quote from: Sheilbh on April 22, 2022, 07:14:30 AMI think this has been a good election for memes. My favourite - but I love a 36 plot political compass - was the Macron political compass
Did he really say all htose things?
Quote from: alfred russel on April 22, 2022, 03:19:24 PMDid he really say all htose things?
All of them at one point or other :lol:
He gives a lot of interviews and ranges pretty widely. Plus he's famous for slightly off the cuff remarks that don't always land - like telling an unemployed young person the "all you have to do to find a job is cross the road."
Honestly it's the side of Macron I quite like.
Yes.
Interesting statistic about people watching the pre-second round debate:
Quote30 millions de téléspectateurs en 1981 et 1988, 20 millions en 2007, 16,4 millions en 2017, et 15,5 millions en 2022.
https://www.lefigaro.fr/vox/medias/herve-beroud-et-marc-olivier-fogiel-debat-d-entre-deux-tours-le-changement-c-est-maintenant-20220423 (https://www.lefigaro.fr/vox/medias/herve-beroud-et-marc-olivier-fogiel-debat-d-entre-deux-tours-le-changement-c-est-maintenant-20220423)
That's half less people watching with 10 million more people in 40 years.
Quote from: Sheilbh on April 22, 2022, 07:14:30 AMI think this has been a good election for memes. My favourite - but I love a 36 plot political compass - was the Macron political compass :lol:
He doesn't believe in the Amish system? I mean he is not some reactionary anti-modern Christian fanatic so I guess he doesn't...
And what was the context of that random monarchist remark?
Quote from: Valmy on April 23, 2022, 10:11:16 PMQuote from: Sheilbh on April 22, 2022, 07:14:30 AMI think this has been a good election for memes. My favourite - but I love a 36 plot political compass - was the Macron political compass :lol:
He doesn't believe in the Amish system? I mean he is not some reactionary anti-modern Christian fanatic so I guess he doesn't...
And what was the context of that random monarchist remark?
https://www.gq-magazine.co.uk/article/emmanuel-macron-policies-beliefs-philosophy
Quote"Democracy is always presented as if it were incomplete, because democracy is not enough by itself," says Macron, elaborating that there is always something missing in the democratic process; some sort of void.
"In French politics, this absence is the presence of a King, a King whom, fundamentally, I don't think the French people wanted dead," said Macron. "The Revolution dug a deep emotional abyss, one that was imaginary and shared: the King is no more!" According to Macron, since the Revolution France has tried to fill this void, most notably with Napoleon and then Charles de Gaulle, which was only partially successful. "The rest of the time," said Macron, "French democracy does not manage to fill this void."
Vive le Roi! :frog:
Macro, after murdering Tiberius Flanby claimed he wanted to be a "Jupiterian" (sic) president since he did not believe in a "normal" president claimed and incarnated by Hollande.
So in that aspect, Macron did not really flip-flop unlike most of the time.
Priest and nun stabbed today in Nice, but not islamist-motivated it seems.
La Libre Belgique claims Marine is ahead in the French
colonies overseas departments. :hmm: or :lol:
https://www.lalibre.be/international/europe/elections-france/2022/04/24/presidentielle-2022-voici-les-premiers-resultats-definitifs-DGWXCHEVXJCD7IAIQ4GHZ5GKWI/ (https://www.lalibre.be/international/europe/elections-france/2022/04/24/presidentielle-2022-voici-les-premiers-resultats-definitifs-DGWXCHEVXJCD7IAIQ4GHZ5GKWI/)
QuoteMarine Le Pen termine en tête dans différents départements d'Outre-mer, ressort-il de résultats définitifs que La Libre et LN24 ont pu recouper, peu avant 13h30, auprès de plusieurs sources.
La candidate du Rassemblement national remporte 69,60% des voix (92 106 votes) contre 30,40% (40 229 votes) pour Emmanuel Macron en Guadeloupe. Le taux de participation y est de 47,18%.
En Martinique, la politique d'extrême droite obtient 60,87%, contre 39,13% pour le président sortant. Dans ce département, le taux de participation est de 45,45%.
En Guyane, Marine Le Pen est toujours la plus plébiscitée avec 60,70% (21 734 voix), contre 39,30% (14 073 voix) pour le candidat de la République en marche. Le taux de participation est de 38,89%.
La candidate extrémiste arrive également en tête à Saint-Martin et Saint-Barthélemy, avec 55,42%, contre 44,58 % pour son rival. La participation y est de 38%.
Being ahead in Mayotte would be no surprise, since that territory suffers from huge illegal immigration from Comoros.
If true, it could be the anti-Covid vaccine movement voting against Macron since the vaccination campaign was quite unpopular in French West Indies.
(https://i.redd.it/6zbows73ikt81.png)
French version of the meme posted by Sheilbh. Even better, for the eagle-eyed. :frog:
Turnout so far looks like it's only a point or two below the same time in 2017, which is probably good for Macron.
One thought on normalisation of Le Pen is that I don't think I've seen Macron use the "Republican Front" style politics or rhetoric at all in this election. I'm not sure if that's a choice by him, or if it's a political constraint that it just wouldn't work any more or it's impossible for him? But it is striking that Le Pen and RN are treated as another party rather than a force that you rally all "Republican" politics against.
Not sure if this anti-Marine poster (Mélenchon/submissive France-style?) will really help :hmm:
More likely to backfire, with Marine wearing a very islamist hijab (no hair visible).
That's the left, for those who don't follow.
"Let us not submit to a thinly-veiled extreme-right". :lol: Remember, Islam means submission (to God/Allah in theory).
(https://images.thedailystar.net/sites/default/files/images/2022/04/24/polarising-election-campaign.jpg)
Quote from: Sheilbh on April 24, 2022, 09:59:21 AMTurnout so far looks like it's only a point or two below the same time in 2017, which is probably good for Macron.
Not so sure about that. Higher turnout would mean "Front Républicain-style" reaction.
QuoteOne thought on normalisation of Le Pen is that I don't think I've seen Macron use the "Republican Front" style politics or rhetoric at all in this election. I'm not sure if that's a choice by him, or if it's a political constraint that it just wouldn't work any more or it's impossible for him? But it is striking that Le Pen and RN are treated as another party rather than a force that you rally all "Republican" politics against.
He tried but it did not work that well. He has done everything to use it for its own personal political gain so hardly surprising.
Quote from: Duque de Bragança on April 24, 2022, 10:54:02 AMNot so sure about that. Higher turnout would mean "Front Républicain-style" reaction.
For sure - but it's only a point or two down.
Quote from: Sheilbh on April 24, 2022, 10:58:24 AMQuote from: Duque de Bragança on April 24, 2022, 10:54:02 AMNot so sure about that. Higher turnout would mean "Front Républicain-style" reaction.
For sure - but it's only a point or two down.
2.5 %, as reported now.
I see the US embassy has released two advisory travels, situation is getting serious. :P
Reported by French media, of course.
https://fr.usembassy.gov/u-s-citizen-services/security-and-travel-information/ (https://fr.usembassy.gov/u-s-citizen-services/security-and-travel-information/)
QuoteDemonstration and Security Alert – U.S. Embassy Paris, France (April 22, 2022)
Home | News & Events | Demonstration and Security Alert – U.S. Embassy Paris, France (April 22, 2022)
Event: The final round of the French Presidential Elections will be held this weekend. On Sunday April 24, authorities expect spontaneous gatherings in cities throughout France after 8pm. These could potentially turn violent. Please pay attention to your local news regarding possible violence in your area and avoid protest areas.
Additionally, smaller demonstrations (see below) are expected throughout the country, with potential for risk of riots/clashes with the police. U.S. government employees have been advised to avoid the locations of protests.
Saturday, April 23
Strasbourg
What: Antifa
Where: Place de la Gare
When: 2:30pm
Lyon
What: Against Macron
Where: Place Bellecour
When: 2:00pm
Bordeaux
What: Students – Call to protest by Federation Syndicale Etudiante
Where: Place de la Bourse
When: 2:00pm
Sunday, April 24
Paris
What: Student Protests
Where: Chatelet and Pantheon
When: 8:00 pm
Rennes
What: Election Protests
Where: Rennes at Place St Anne
When: 8:00pm
Actions to Take:
Avoid the areas of the demonstrations
Exercise caution if in the vicinity of large gatherings or protests
Monitor local media for updates
Be prepared for disruptions to public transportation in areas of the protests
Be aware of your surroundings
Keep a low profile
QuoteTravel Advisory
April 19, 2022
Exercise increased caution in France due to terrorism and civil unrest.
Country Summary: Terrorist groups continue plotting possible attacks in France. Terrorists may attack with little or no warning, targeting tourist locations, transportation hubs, markets/shopping malls, local government facilities, hotels, clubs, restaurants, places of worship, parks, major sporting and cultural events, educational institutions, airports, and other public areas.
Demonstrations in Paris and other major cities continue in France and are expected to continue in the coming weeks. Property damage, including looting and arson, in populated tourist areas has occurred with reckless disregard for public safety. Police have responded with water cannons, rubber bullets, and tear gas. The U.S. Embassy is advising official U.S. government travelers to avoid travel to Paris and other major cities in France on the weekends.
Read the country information page for additional information on travel to France.
The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) has determined France has a high level of COVID-19. Visit the CDC page for the latest Travel Health Information related to your travel.
Early polls, not official, say Macron would win, unsurprisingly, by 55/58 %.
https://www.lalibre.be/international/europe/elections-france/2022/04/24/emmanuel-macron-en-tete-de-la-presidentielle-2022-selon-trois-sondages-DAAZ2LFS25DDXOBHAZAH5NKTRE/ (https://www.lalibre.be/international/europe/elections-france/2022/04/24/emmanuel-macron-en-tete-de-la-presidentielle-2022-selon-trois-sondages-DAAZ2LFS25DDXOBHAZAH5NKTRE/)
QuotePublié le 24-04-2022 à 18h22 - Mis à jour le 24-04-2022 à 18h26
Selon quatre enquêtes d'opinion réalisées ce dimanche par quatre instituts de sondage réputés en France, Emmanuel Macron est crédité entre 55% à 58 des voix, alors queMarine Le Penrecueillerait entre 42 et 45% des suffrages, a appris LN24. Ces résultats proviennent de sondages réalisés sur Internet auprès de citoyens ayant déjà été voter jusqu'à 17h.
Attention, un sondage n'est pas une projection sur base de résultats réels, mais une enquête d'opinion réalisée auprès d'un panel représentatif. Les résultats que nous vous présentons vont encore évoluer et se peaufiner petit à petit.
Nous savons de bonne source que ces sondages circulent également dans les rédactions françaises et dans les QG de campagne des deux candidats.
La Libre Belgique
Quote from: Sheilbh on April 22, 2022, 07:14:30 AMQuote from: celedhring on April 19, 2022, 02:14:04 AMhttps://twitter.com/renaldinhos/status/1516067712333754373
QuoteDavid Mosquera
@renaldinhos
Michael Scott as Emmanuel Macron: a thread
I think this has been a good election for memes. My favourite - but I love a 36 plot political compass - was the Macron political compass :lol:
(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FQkuyjdVgAAlf3q?format=jpg&name=medium)
This seems very confused with the placement of some. And he seems confused too 😂
Semi-official Macron 58% vs 42 % for Marine.
Official figures later this night.
There we go - first President re-elected since 2002.
Interested to see what Macron does with a second term - particularly on Europe now he's the elder statesman/de facto leader. And what he does with preparing the political system for a post-Macron era :hmm:
Any chance he could reform the system to stop the far right managing to come so close to a win from a minority?
Quote from: Josquius on April 24, 2022, 01:25:56 PMAny chance he could reform the system to stop the far right managing to come so close to a win from a minority?
:lmfao:
Come on, he has to leave a chance to his successor.
Quote from: Josquius on April 24, 2022, 01:25:56 PMAny chance he could reform the system to stop the far right managing to come so close to a win from a minority?
Isn't that already the French system?
First round of all candidates with the top two going to a second round (normally about 25% in round one will get you there), then it's a run-off. Popular vote, no electoral college or anything like that whoever wins over 50% of the vote wins.
Of course like all directly elected presidential systems - especially when the president is powerful - it's like a referendum every 4-5 years forcing a binary choice on voters. But the French is not winning from a minority like happens in the US, you need to win the popular vote.
Quote from: Duque de Bragança on April 24, 2022, 08:07:30 AMPriest and nun stabbed today in Nice, but not islamist-motivated it seems.
I'm sorry. Today must be hard on you.
Quote from: Duque de Bragança on April 24, 2022, 01:01:42 PMOn Sunday April 24, authorities expect spontaneous gatherings in cities throughout France after 8pm. These could potentially turn violent.
So, usual Sunday for France.
Quote from: viper37 on April 24, 2022, 03:03:46 PMQuote from: Duque de Bragança on April 24, 2022, 01:01:42 PMOn Sunday April 24, authorities expect spontaneous gatherings in cities throughout France after 8pm. These could potentially turn violent.
So, usual Sunday for France.
Well, there's no school tomorrow (Spring/Easter Holidays), so yes more time for trouble by the usual suspects. :P
I always love TV news countdowns to elections from different countries - South Korea and Taiwan have some particularly strong entries. There's the famous 1981 French one where they used a big computer screen with the image unfurling line by line - unfortunately because Mitterand and Giscard d'Estaing were both bald it just made the suspense go on for another minute or two :lol:
But this is very good:
https://twitter.com/Florian_set/status/1518335236664397827?s=20&t=79DsaE2swUUmFiaWIovzxg
Funny to see fascists throwing a fit. Saw one being interviewed saying they were very angry and shame on everyone who voted macron 😂
Really hope it doesn't lead to anyone getting hurt though.
French elections don't normally take place on holidays right?
QuoteIsn't that already the French system?
First round of all candidates with the top two going to a second round (normally about 25% in round one will get you there), then it's a run-off. Popular vote, no electoral college or anything like that whoever wins over 50% of the vote wins.
Of course like all directly elected presidential systems - especially when the president is powerful - it's like a referendum every 4-5 years forcing a binary choice on voters. But the French is not winning from a minority like happens in the US, you need to win the popular vote.
It's more democratic than the US, but still broken.
I wonder whether an AV ranking sort of setup could improve things. Otherwise not too many ideas when the system of electing a supreme leader itself is quite flawed.
Checking the full results they make for better reading than Le Pen pretends.
Macron - 38.52%
Le Pen- 27.28%
Abstention - 28.01%
Blank vote - 4.57%
Null vote - 1.62%
Over 70% is a really high turn out for all the talk of it being low.
Quote from: Josquius on April 25, 2022, 06:12:43 AMChecking the full results they make for better reading than Le Pen pretends.
Macron - 38.52%
Le Pen- 27.28%
Abstention - 28.01%
Blank vote - 4.57%
Null vote - 1.62%
Over 70% is a really high turn out for all the talk of it being low.
Not for the run-off a presidential election. It's the highest abstention percentage since 1969 when communists abstained massively, and yes back then the PCF was a huge party.
Mélenchon even claimed Macron was the worst elected president ever but that's way more contentious.
Quote from: Josquius on April 25, 2022, 02:27:33 AMIt's more democratic than the US, but still broken.
I wonder whether an AV ranking sort of setup could improve things. Otherwise not too many ideas when the system of electing a supreme leader itself is quite flawed.
I'm not sure it makes too much difference though. Zemmour and Le Pen got about 30% together, the hard left collectively got about 27-30% and then Macron plus other mainstream parties" have about 40%. I think even with an AV you'd still probably end up with a run-off between Le Pen and Macron.
If anything in the current system Melenchon came within 400,000 votes of the second round. Trots are going to Trot so those two micro-parties would never switch early, I think the PS and the Greens are more ideologically in sync with Macron than Melenchon - but Roussel and the Communists got about 800,000 votes and are broadly sympathetic to Melenchon. My understanding - as ever with the left - is that there's some ideological disagreements but there's also a fear that the PCF don't really want the left to consolidate too much around Melenchon. They want to keep the very red flag flying separately.
QuoteOver 70% is a really high turn out for all the talk of it being low.
In a UK context, sure. But for France it's very low turnout for a presidential election.
Breakdown of motivation is interesting:
25% for Le Pen
17% against Macron
30% for Macron
28% against Le Pen
And I'm seeing lots of the left having a go at centrists (and there are reasons to criticise Macron). But given that about 60% of Melenchon's vote either stayed at home or voted for Le Pen I'm not sure they can really criticise anyone for not doing enough:
(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FRISJi3WYAAEnWw?format=jpg&name=small)
Quote from: Duque de Bragança on April 25, 2022, 07:44:06 AMQuote from: Josquius on April 25, 2022, 06:12:43 AMChecking the full results they make for better reading than Le Pen pretends.
Macron - 38.52%
Le Pen- 27.28%
Abstention - 28.01%
Blank vote - 4.57%
Null vote - 1.62%
Over 70% is a really high turn out for all the talk of it being low.
Not for the run-off a presidential election. It's the highest abstention percentage sine 1969 when communists abstained massively, and yes back then the PCF was a huge party.
Mélenchon even claimed Macron was the worst elected president ever but that's way more contentious.
Sure. Which shows a lack of le pen toleration despite macron being the other choice.
I also wonder to what extent coming when it did, in the first post covid school holidays, helped.
Quote from: Josquius on April 25, 2022, 08:10:22 AMQuote from: Duque de Bragança on April 25, 2022, 07:44:06 AMQuote from: Josquius on April 25, 2022, 06:12:43 AMChecking the full results they make for better reading than Le Pen pretends.
Macron - 38.52%
Le Pen- 27.28%
Abstention - 28.01%
Blank vote - 4.57%
Null vote - 1.62%
Over 70% is a really high turn out for all the talk of it being low.
Not for the run-off a presidential election. It's the highest abstention percentage sine 1969 when communists abstained massively, and yes back then the PCF was a huge party.
Mélenchon even claimed Macron was the worst elected president ever but that's way more contentious.
Sure. Which shows a lack of le pen toleration despite macron being the other choice.
I also wonder to what extent coming when it did, in the first post covid school holidays, helped.
QuoteFrench elections don't normally take place on holidays right?
Sunday is a holiday here. :P
Presidential holidays happen during Spring/Easter Holidays, but not by design.
All 3 "school" zones were in holidays, however that has been regularly the case and proxy voting has been simplified and promoted.
I hadn't heard of this before.
Interesting story. #Russians
BBC News - What are France's accusations over a mass grave found in Mali?
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/61257796
(https://i.redd.it/klrmmuxv3pw81.jpg)
FI, PS and Greens doing a deal for the legislatives :hmm:
Maybe the French left will start to unite for elections, so we'll be done from about 10 candidates of the left to just the normal constellation of left, Communists, Trots, other Trots :lol:
Quote from: Sheilbh on May 01, 2022, 03:14:08 PMFI, PS and Greens doing a deal for the legislatives :hmm:
Maybe the French left will start to unite for elections, so we'll be done from about 10 candidates of the left to just the normal constellation of left, Communists, Trots, other Trots, crypto-Trots :lol:
Fixed!
I see the PT then POI party (third Trot candidate in 2007) splintered in 2015. :P
Slightly fascinating semantics response from the ongoing analysis of the Macron/Le Pen vote. Voters who say they are "in the centre" broke for Macron 87/13; voters who say they are "neither right nor left" went for Le Pen 53/47 :hmm:
Quote from: Sheilbh on May 03, 2022, 03:42:28 AMSlightly fascinating semantics response from the ongoing analysis of the Macron/Le Pen vote. Voters who say they are "in the centre" broke for Macron 87/13; voters who say they are "neither right nor left" went for Le Pen 53/47 :hmm:
I wouldn't say I'm so surprised. Again going off the UK (always a risk) I've definitely noticed "I'm no labour or tory", "they're all the same", and other claims to be "above" right and left is pretty typical of far right nut cases.
No idea how it translates in France.
Though that 13% of centrists are against macron is weird. I have to suspect semantic lies of the Musk variety again.
Quote from: Sheilbh on May 03, 2022, 03:42:28 AMSlightly fascinating semantics response from the ongoing analysis of the Macron/Le Pen vote. Voters who say they are "in the centre" broke for Macron 87/13; voters who say they are "neither right nor left" went for Le Pen 53/47 :hmm:
Over here "I'm neither right nor left" is usually an anti-establishment statement, and a far right leaning one at that. These results don't seem that surprising.
Same in France, I think. Just an interesting example of how two very similar sentiments get wildly different results based on semantics and how you describe it to people/how they understand it.
Macron claimed to be nor right, nor left, in the footsteps of Le Pen père, who added French after, however.
Quote from: Josquius on April 30, 2022, 06:59:35 AMI hadn't heard of this before.
Interesting story. #Russians
BBC News - What are France's accusations over a mass grave found in Mali?
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/61257796
there are satellite pictures showing the Russians digging holes and dropping bodies in it.
The Mali government has turned semi-hostile toward France, lately. France is gradually leaving the area. Not quite a debacle like Afghanistan, but still a failure. Might have some French guys drop their superiority complex over the Americans. Or quite likely not. :sleep:
Quote from: Zanza on May 01, 2022, 05:51:39 AM(https://i.redd.it/klrmmuxv3pw81.jpg)
The associated comment "rise in far right" is a bit disingenous. The Front National of 1995 does not have much in common with the Rassemblement National of 2022. It's like comparing British Tories to the Republican party because they are both conservative movements.
Zemmour's policies were pretty much aligned to 1995's FN policies and he didn't go through the second round.
Le Pen is a populist and her party proposes a lot of solution borrowed from the far left. It probably has more in common, officially, with a socialist party of the 1970s than with any far right movement nowadays. It's not like these pro-union parties were shining examples of multi-culturalism, social progress and tolerance. Well, they still aren't, but they split into traditional leftist parties and neo-woke types now instead of being under the same umbrella.
Unofficially, it still attract the neo-nazis and Marine is certainly not disatisfied with this. Just like the left, a vote is a vote, even if it's from an extremist. I remember a time where parties, right or left, would shun at extremists and publicly denounce them and their methods. I remember René Lévesque firmly denouncing the FLQ and those who supported the organization, especially the
Rassemblement pour l'Indépendance Nationale. I remember Stephen Harper expelling racist members from the party. Something I can't imagine any mainstream political party doing now. Any nutjob is bound to find a proper party and feel at home now as politicians are happily nurturing their extremism.
Quote from: Sheilbh on May 03, 2022, 03:42:28 AMSlightly fascinating semantics response from the ongoing analysis of the Macron/Le Pen vote. Voters who say they are "in the centre" broke for Macron 87/13; voters who say they are "neither right nor left" went for Le Pen 53/47 :hmm:
Can you read French Sheilb? The platform of the party is here:
https://rassemblementnational.fr/pdf/144-engagements.pdf
Anti-Europe: lots of leftist are against Europe. Putin is very happy to support these parties, left or right.<
I'll pass on the proposed Constitutional changes, they are not important. But such initiatives have been proposed by far left parties here in Canada.
Freedom of expression and digital freedomLet's say this one is rightwing, for now. Once upon a time, the left was in favour of such freedoms. Nowadays, with the rise of cancel culture, they're no better than the average Disney cancelling Republican.
Digital nationalism.Pretty left wing/protectionist as a proposal. To insist that all data concerning French be stocked in France.
Defend the rights of women.
Pretty much a leftist cause if any. The only distinction is they now target islam specifically as the main cause of women's rights regression. But they also plan to force wage equity and fight against "social and proffesionnal precarity". That's from a socialist textbook of the last 30 years.
Insure the respect of freedom of associationIt's specifically aimed at protecting unions, especially when they commit crimes. Again, textual socialism.
Freedom of education and forcing private schools to follow the State's curriculmWell, the left has always ranted against private schools.
The whole program is filled with stuff like that. It's not that the French have changed, they are still clearly aligned to the left. But the NewFN has managed to adjust its discourse, adapt it to the reality of today's perceive injustices as felt by the left.
If you take a look at Québec Solidaire's platform, you'll see many similarities with the RN's program:
https://plateforme.quebecsolidaire.net/
Yet, there's no denying (except by them ;) ) that they are a communist party. They never hesitate to support scumbags and criminals, so long as they are on the right (sorry, left ;) ) side.
Hey what's up with Macron these days?
Bunch of news stories about how he's warning the west not to "humiliate" Putin, that EU membership for Ukraine will take decades, and how there needs to be a ceasefire in Ukraine (which would freeze the conflict and reward Putin).
It's discussed in the EU thread. Long story short, typical Macron.
Bit of a striking moment with Melenchon on TV recently calling German reunification an unconstitutional annexation that was conducted with unprecedented "social violence" against East Germans.
A reminder that he is, fundamentally, an unreconstructed tankie and it is probably as alarming that he is now the main force on the left in France in the same way as Le Pen is the main force on the right. Also from a British perspective seeing sensible Labour supporters get all dewy eyed about the French popular front - led by Melenchon in these elections - is another sign (as with backing Corbyn) that all the stuff about collapsing firewalls and the erosion of norms is not just an issue on the right in Europe.
I'm not convinced it's great for democracy or governance if your choices end up being hard left, hard right and then a centre who can do whatever they want - because, what are you going to do vote for the fascists or the tankies? :bleeding:
On a similar, but British, note absolutely thrilling to see Lutfur Rahman writing a piece in Jacobin about how he ran as an open socialist and beat the Labour party to become mayor - "the Left can win like I did: by going on the offensive". It's worth noting that Rahman was previously disqualified and banned from seeking office for five years because of electoral fraud and voter intimidation (and there's reports that, at least, the voter intimidation is back). His party is pretty much sectarian, has no women councillors (and a streak of misogyny) and a history of people making very anti-semitic remarks. It's also complicatedly tied to clan politics and political divisions in Bangladesh. Not entirely sure it's a model the democratic left should be holding up - or allowing to describe itself as primarily being about a strong socialist campaign, and holding your nose about the fraud, intimidation, sectarianism etc.
Quote from: Sheilbh on May 12, 2022, 07:00:43 AMBit of a striking moment with Melenchon on TV recently calling German reunification an unconstitutional annexation that was conducted with unprecedented "social violence" against East Germans.
A reminder that he is, fundamentally, an unreconstructed tankie and it is probably as alarming that he is now the main force on the left in France in the same way as Le Pen is the main force on the right. Also from a British perspective seeing sensible Labour supporters get all dewy eyed about the French popular front - led by Melenchon in these elections - is another sign (as with backing Corbyn) that all the stuff about collapsing firewalls and the erosion of norms is not just an issue on the right in Europe.
I'm not convinced it's great for democracy or governance if your choices end up being hard left, hard right and then a centre who can do whatever they want - because, what are you going to do vote for the fascists or the tankies? :bleeding:
Why are you surprised? He is an admirer of Die Linke, with a pro-islamist twist.
What will you notice next? That he is the biggest "poutinolâtre" around out of "anti-imperialism"?
As for the elimination of real moderates of the mainstream political spectrum by Macron, so he can stay in power, that's WAD, perfecting Mitterand's playbook.
Quote from: Sheilbh on May 12, 2022, 07:00:43 AMI'm not convinced it's great for democracy or governance if your choices end up being hard left, hard right and then a centre who can do whatever they want - because, what are you going to do vote for the fascists or the tankies? :bleeding:
You have pretty much summed up the success of the liberal Part of Canada since about the 90s. The rare times they lose elections is when the Conservatives (or whatever the right wing party is calling itself at the material time) becomes more reasonable. When the left proposes policies that look like they might be popular the Liberals just incorporate those into their platform.
Although Canadian politics might be bad - I'm just not sure the Conservatives or NDP are quite at Le Pen or Melenchon levels yet :lol: :P
There is no possibility to my mind of even a reasonable Le Pen or Melenchon being acceptable as leading a government.
It is crazy with the popular front to see the party of Mitterand rallying behind someone with those views on German reunification. They're not unheard of - I've come across them in leftie circles. But I always think they're a mark that we may have some similarities in views but fundamentaly quite different politics.
Quote from: Sheilbh on May 12, 2022, 10:41:56 AMAlthough Canadian politics might be bad - I'm just not sure the Conservatives or NDP are quite at Le Pen or Melenchon levels yet :lol: :P
There is no possibility to my mind of even a reasonable Le Pen or Melenchon being acceptable as leading a government.
It is crazy with the popular front to see the party of Mitterand rallying behind someone with those views on German reunification. They're not unheard of - I've come across them in leftie circles. But I always think they're a mark that we may have some similarities in views but fundamentaly quite different politics.
:secret:
Mitterand's party allied itself with communists back in the day, having PCF ministers in the government between 1981 and 1983.
An anti-immigration party back then.
The worst part is that communists suffered the most from the attempt of implementing a real socialist program, after 1983.
As for Mélenchon was a Trot, then PS (even minister), then LFI so that would hardly be new.
He's often described as an aparatchik in these parts, for good reason.
Quote from: Sheilbh on May 12, 2022, 10:41:56 AMAlthough Canadian politics might be bad - I'm just not sure the Conservatives or NDP are quite at Le Pen or Melenchon levels yet :lol: :P
Certainly not yet. But on the right we are heading in that direction. During a leadership debate last night the front runner on the right declared he would replace the Governor of the Bank of Canada - an office which is supposed to be independent of politics. According to reports only one of the other candidates called him out on the comment.
Quote from: crazy canuck on May 12, 2022, 09:28:57 AMQuote from: Sheilbh on May 12, 2022, 07:00:43 AMI'm not convinced it's great for democracy or governance if your choices end up being hard left, hard right and then a centre who can do whatever they want - because, what are you going to do vote for the fascists or the tankies? :bleeding:
You have pretty much summed up the success of the liberal Part of Canada since about the 90s. The rare times they lose elections is when the Conservatives (or whatever the right wing party is calling itself at the material time) becomes more reasonable. When the left proposes policies that look like they might be popular the Liberals just incorporate those into their platform.
the far left decided a while ago that they would not oppose the center left, no matter how corrupt they might be. They helped them maintain power and shield themselves from any investigation and now they have made it official.
Jagmeet Singh has decided the role of her Majesty's Loyal Opposition is to rubber stamp wathever the governing party does, totally abdicating his role because that favors leftist policies, no matter how detrimental they can be to our society. In other words, he is an ideologue.
Quote from: crazy canuck on May 12, 2022, 10:56:14 AMQuote from: Sheilbh on May 12, 2022, 10:41:56 AMAlthough Canadian politics might be bad - I'm just not sure the Conservatives or NDP are quite at Le Pen or Melenchon levels yet :lol: :P
According to reports only one of the other candidates called him out on the comment.
These reports are false.
Quote from: viper37 on May 12, 2022, 11:06:39 AMQuote from: crazy canuck on May 12, 2022, 10:56:14 AMQuote from: Sheilbh on May 12, 2022, 10:41:56 AMAlthough Canadian politics might be bad - I'm just not sure the Conservatives or NDP are quite at Le Pen or Melenchon levels yet :lol: :P
According to reports only one of the other candidates called him out on the comment.
These reports are false.
Good to hear. Who else called him on his bullshit?
Quote from: crazy canuck on May 12, 2022, 10:56:14 AMCertainly not yet. But on the right we are heading in that direction. During a leadership debate last night the front runner on the right declared he would replace the Governor of the Bank of Canada - an office which is supposed to be independent of politics. According to reports only one of the other candidates called him out on the comment.
I think two:
QuoteCharest said Poilievre's promise to fire Macklem was "irresponsible" and would make companies second-guess their investments in Canada.
After the debate, Conservative MP Leslyn Lewis said: "I don't agree that members of Parliament should be meddling in the Bank of Canada."
https://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/conservative-leadership-debate-edmonton-1.6448477
I'm no fan of Lewis, but I give her points there as well (slightly reduced for being after the debate, but still the correct position).
Quote from: Sheilbh on May 12, 2022, 07:00:43 AMBit of a striking moment with Melenchon on TV recently calling German reunification an unconstitutional annexation that was conducted with unprecedented "social violence" against East Germans.
I understand what Die Linke considers as "social violence" in the context of reunification and some of it is even legitimate criticism of policies back then.
But what is the argument about constitutionality?
Quote from: crazy canuck on May 12, 2022, 10:56:14 AMCertainly not yet. But on the right we are heading in that direction. During a leadership debate last night the front runner on the right declared he would replace the Governor of the Bank of Canada - an office which is supposed to be independent of politics. According to reports only one of the other candidates called him out on the comment.
I still don't think you're in the same universe as Le Pen though.
On that point though I'm not sure with central bankers - who are probably the most powerful people in Western systems without any real form of democratic oversight. I think the role should be insulated from politics on a day to day basis. But they make hugely important decisions about our economy.
On central banks themselves I think we might come to an inflection point and monetary policy might get politicised again. Central bank independence works because politics on all sides broadly agree on monetary policy but I'm not sure if that will hold under less benign conditions and especially in the context of asset bubbles and housing prices there are clear class and generational divides that might benefit from different approaches. And in the past monetary poicy - gold standard or not etc - have been hugely important political issues.
Central bankers took a lot of credit for the era of benign high employment/low inflation. Some of it is deserved because they are powerful - I think there's an extent to which that era is as shaped by, say, Greenspan, Bernanke and Draghi as any elected politician. But I think their ability to expertly manage and shape market expectations was less important than the structural factors Minsky flagged: Asia, technology etc.
Now I think we're facing opposite challenges and the, for want of a better word, credit of the central banks might run out. There are, in my view, structural reasons for inflationary pressures which I don't think are going to go away and I don't think the central bankers will be able to solve. I think that will change the politics around them when they go from being the gnomic guys delivering a couple of decades of economic growth and saving currency unions (which they never were), to policymakers with constraints (which they always were but was not how they were reported or projected themselves). I think their institutional gravitas might get undermined because of that - then when you add in those class and generational divides, I can see monetary policy becoming re-politicised.
But for another example what about policing? I'm just thinking of the Met here the Commissioner is appointed by the Home Secretary in consultation with the Mayor. They are operationally independent and should serve their full term which doesn't coincide with any electoral cycle. But it's clear Cressida Dick was doing a bad job and there were systemic issues she wasn't fixing. In my view it's perfectly legitimate for the Mayor (or the Home Secretary) to make clear to the Commissioner that they don't have their confidence any longer - and, practically, that makes it impossible to continue in the job. Similarly if you elect a left-wing mayor who wants to move to community policing etc - how long do they have to put up with, say, a Bill Bratton as chief of police before it's legitimate to move them on without being a problematic overstep on police independence?
I can imagine that happening or being appropriate if there were systemic failure at a central bank or it was clear that their monetary policy views were absolutely opposed to or stymieing an elected government. Althought that might just be because I'm on the left and it's always been a thing that central banks might cause problems for a left-wing government :lol:
Quote from: Zanza on May 12, 2022, 11:19:34 AMI understand what Die Linke considers as "social violence" in the context of reunification and some of it is even legitimate criticism of policies back then.
But what is the argument about constitutionality?
I've no idea - I think he phrased it as an "annexation" by West Germany.
I've heard the "social violence" point. I don't think it's particularly unprecedented and I don't think there are many better actual, real, practical examples of handling it than German reunification.
And it's far from the worst thing Melenchon's ever said it's just a really striking one in light of the popular front with the PS and Greens behind him.
Quote from: Sheilbh on May 12, 2022, 11:36:25 AMQuote from: crazy canuck on May 12, 2022, 10:56:14 AMCertainly not yet. But on the right we are heading in that direction. During a leadership debate last night the front runner on the right declared he would replace the Governor of the Bank of Canada - an office which is supposed to be independent of politics. According to reports only one of the other candidates called him out on the comment.
I still don't think you're in the same universe as Le Pen though.
On that point though I'm not sure with central bankers - who are probably the most powerful people in Western systems without any real form of democratic oversight. I think the role should be insulated from politics on a day to day basis. But they make hugely important decisions about our economy.
On central banks themselves I think we might come to an inflection point and monetary policy might get politicised again. Central bank independence works because politics on all sides broadly agree on monetary policy but I'm not sure if that will hold under less benign conditions and especially in the context of asset bubbles and housing prices there are clear class and generational divides that might benefit from different approaches. And in the past monetary poicy - gold standard or not etc - have been hugely important political issues.
Central bankers took a lot of credit for the era of benign high employment/low inflation. Some of it is deserved because they are powerful - I think there's an extent to which that era is as shaped by, say, Greenspan, Bernanke and Draghi as any elected politician. But I think their ability to expertly manage and shape market expectations was less important than the structural factors Minsky flagged: Asia, technology etc.
Now I think we're facing opposite challenges and the, for want of a better word, credit of the central banks might run out. There are, in my view, structural reasons for inflationary pressures which I don't think are going to go away and I don't think the central bankers will be able to solve. I think that will change the politics around them when they go from being the gnomic guys delivering a couple of decades of economic growth and saving currency unions (which they never were), to policymakers with constraints (which they always were but was not how they were reported or projected themselves). I think their institutional gravitas might get undermined because of that - then when you add in those class and generational divides, I can see monetary policy becoming re-politicised.
But for another example what about policing? I'm just thinking of the Met here the Commissioner is appointed by the Home Secretary in consultation with the Mayor. They are operationally independent and should serve their full term which doesn't coincide with any electoral cycle. But it's clear Cressida Dick was doing a bad job and there were systemic issues she wasn't fixing. In my view it's perfectly legitimate for the Mayor (or the Home Secretary) to make clear to the Commissioner that they don't have their confidence any longer - and, practically, that makes it impossible to continue in the job. Similarly if you elect a left-wing mayor who wants to move to community policing etc - how long do they have to put up with, say, a Bill Bratton as chief of police before it's legitimate to move them on without being a problematic overstep on police independence?
I can imagine that happening or being appropriate if there were systemic failure at a central bank or it was clear that their monetary policy views were absolutely opposed to or stymieing an elected government. Althought that might just be because I'm on the left and it's always been a thing that central banks might cause problems for a left-wing government :lol:
The reason politicizing the central bank in the Canadian context is that, other than Pollivre (who by the way floated crpto becoming an official Canadian currency) there is wide political consensus about the policy statements of the Bank. In fact their broad policy directives are given by Parliament every number of years and then they go do their work independent of day to day interference. That independence is then, of course, undermined if they can be terminated on a whim if they don't do as the PM wishes on a day to day.
Policy is an interesting question - and one of the reasons BC is going back to a regional police force rather than contracted policing with the RCMP. Municipalities that already opted out and have their own local police have a police board and the mayor is a member of that board.
Interesting - so central bank in Canada doesn't have a formal over-riding mandate like the Fed, ECB, BofE? It makes a lot of sense to update that and have a measure of democratic control to reflect priorities of the government, especially if there are shifts on what that should be or if previous monetary policy was seen as not supporting a newly elected government's mandate.
I can fully understand the concer about a crypto bro directing that policy - see El Salvador. Although obviously central banks and treasuries are looking at it to work out what to do and if, or how, to engage with it.
There's similar mechanism in the UK on an elected official with a committee have oversight over the police in that area and can set broad strategic priorities, but aren't involved in operational policing. But it's the firing and hiring point I wonder about because they don't normally have that power within a police chief's term in office - but I think it can be justified if there's a shift in the politics or the police chief is failing. I'm just not sure that you can really put any formal guardrails around that and it's always likely that one man's justifiable "lost confidence in" is another's politicising the police.
Quote from: Sheilbh on May 12, 2022, 07:00:43 AMOn a similar, but British, note absolutely thrilling to see Lutfur Rahman writing a piece in Jacobin about how he ran as an open socialist and beat the Labour party to become mayor - "the Left can win like I did: by going on the offensive". It's worth noting that Rahman was previously disqualified and banned from seeking office for five years because of electoral fraud and voter intimidation (and there's reports that, at least, the voter intimidation is back). His party is pretty much sectarian, has no women councillors (and a streak of misogyny) and a history of people making very anti-semitic remarks. It's also complicatedly tied to clan politics and political divisions in Bangladesh. Not entirely sure it's a model the democratic left should be holding up - or allowing to describe itself as primarily being about a strong socialist campaign, and holding your nose about the fraud, intimidation, sectarianism etc.
it's called cultural enrichment and you're supposed to love it and encourage it.
There's other areas and communities with some similar issues, but nothing to the extent in Tower Hamlets. Large parts of it are just old school machine politics to be honest - for the same reasons that machine politics have always existed.
But the combination of factors and extent is fairly specific to Tower Hamlets (and started - as so much does - in an internal Labour party row that got out of hand :lol:). I lived in the borough when he was last mayor and, annoyingly, he is actually a very effective mayor - which is also part of it. Especially compared to his successor, who's a decent guy but not been great from what I gather.
But it's not good and he shouldn't be given space as some voice of the left/a proper alternative to Starmerism.
Quote from: crazy canuck on May 12, 2022, 11:16:14 AMQuote from: viper37 on May 12, 2022, 11:06:39 AMQuote from: crazy canuck on May 12, 2022, 10:56:14 AMQuote from: Sheilbh on May 12, 2022, 10:41:56 AMAlthough Canadian politics might be bad - I'm just not sure the Conservatives or NDP are quite at Le Pen or Melenchon levels yet :lol: :P
According to reports only one of the other candidates called him out on the comment.
These reports are false.
Good to hear. Who else called him on his bullshit?
Nearly everyone:
QuoteWhile the candidates do have some positions that they seem closely aligned on, like ending pandemic mandates and the carbon tax, Wednesday's debate showed one big area where other contenders piled on Poilievre: His support for and commentary on cryptocurrency.
It started with Poilievre bringing up his opposition to the Bank of Canada ever creating a digital currency. During the debate he promised to fire the governor of the Bank of Canada, a position currently held by Tiff Macklem, while pledging to restore the bank's independence.
As part of his ongoing focus on the issue, he's also recently called Canada's central bank "financially illiterate."
In a rebuttal, Lewis drew attention to Poilievre's commentary on Bitcoin, raising concern over what she thought was questionable advice, and criticized his promotion of decentralized currency, something she said was "a problem" for someone who has been a finance critic.
Charest then pipped in, saying what Poilievre is suggesting is "totally bizarre," citing a recent drop in Bitcoin value. "Anyone following his advice that we saw on YouTube would have lost 20 per cent of their earnings," Charest said, questioning whether anyone would want their parents to lose 20 per cent of their retirement funds. "This lunacy, and it doesn't make sense at all," he said.
Brown then enters the conversation, saying he agrees with Charest and Lewis, and that "magic internet money fluctuates vastly."
Looking to defend himself, Poilievre shot back that his position has been mischaracterized.
Brown rebutted: "No one in this room, and no one in Canada will believe that you didn't say you can opt out of inflation through cryptocurrency. ... It is bad advice to be giving to Canadians, that is so risky, and you should know that as a former finance critic, that's not the advice you should be giving to the country."
This piece does not mention it, but he was also called out by regular members in the attendance who were interviewed post-debate.
Still being counted but pretty strong result in the 2nd round of the legislatives today:
(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FVo1JkVVIAEIEfx?format=jpg&name=small)
The big shock is probably the RN who have not hitorically done well in the legislative elections and are now projected to win over 80 seats - from 8 in 2017.
The unified left has paid off but probably a little bit less than they'd hoped.
Macron no longer has a parliamentary majority - he can form a coalition with the centre-right I suppose, if they're interested. Or try to pick off individuals/factions from NUPES and LR. It is still in its way a shock given that the system is designed to give the president a majority.
But zooming out it confirms the same picture from the presidential election. French politics is now a fairly hard left, a centre-ish party and the far right. All of those parties are reliant on leading personalities: Melenchon, Macron and Le Pen. Not sure who replaces Macron next time around and I'm not sure this polarised and personalised trend is good/healthy.
A turnout of about 45% also isn't healthy.
No - there's a wider trend there though. Turnout in Europe has been broadly declining basically since the 80s/end of the cold war.
But I think in France in particular, and I could be wrong, that it's taken a sharp turn down since its been aligned with the Presidential election. Given that it is designed to give the President a working majority I think it's probably reduced the importance/worth of legislative election in the eyes of voters?
Edit: Also important:
QuoteIPSOS poll. The death of the 'republican front'.
When Nupes faced RN: 72% of Ensemble voters abstained, 16% voted for Nupes, 12% voted for RN. 58% of LR voters abstained, 30% voted for RN and 12% voted for Nupes.
It was a running complaint during the campaign by the left that Macron's party would not say that in a NUPES-RN run-off, their supporters should vote NUPES.
Quote from: Maladict on June 19, 2022, 04:01:48 PMA turnout of about 45% also isn't healthy.
Higher than the previous legislative elections, but not by much.
Jupiter has a very narrow voter base but traditionaly these elections are less followed than presidential ones.
Quote from: Sheilbh on June 19, 2022, 04:05:31 PMNo - there's a wider trend there though. Turnout in Europe has been broadly declining basically since the 80s/end of the cold war.
But I think in France in particular, and I could be wrong, that it's taken a sharp turn down since its been aligned with the Presidential election. Given that it is designed to give the President a working majority I think it's probably reduced the importance/worth of legislative election in the eyes of voters?
Edit: Also important:
QuoteIPSOS poll. The death of the 'republican front'.
When Nupes faced RN: 72% of Ensemble voters abstained, 16% voted for Nupes, 12% voted for RN. 58% of LR voters abstained, 30% voted for RN and 12% voted for Nupes.
It was a running complaint during the campaign by the left that Macron's party would not say that in a NUPES-RN run-off, their supporters should vote NUPES.
Ah the good old
Front Républicain :P Problem is, the main problem is the double standard, allying with the far-right is haram, while with the far-left it's hallal. :P
I guess that was put to rest.
LR (conservatives) are in damage control mode so they have twice less seats than 5 years ago. It's somewhat positive given the dire straits they were after the failure of Pécresse, and Sarko's betrayal as in supporting Macron's candidates.
No prime minister position for Mélenchon, but it's still a pretty good result.
Jupiter can't have anticipated elections before one year at least.
What I'm not getting is the criticism of Macron for pushing people to extremes. How has he done this?- Is the idea by grabbing the centre he is responsible for the decline of the centre left and centre right parties?
It seems to me a bit wishful thinking and that Macron is simply a logical thing to emerge out of a pre-existing dive to the extremes in a system that encourages binary thinking.
Quote from: Josquius on June 20, 2022, 05:54:32 AMWhat I'm not getting is the criticism of Macron for pushing people to extremes. How has he done this?- Is the idea by grabbing the centre he is responsible for the decline of the centre left and centre right parties?
It seems to me a bit wishful thinking and that Macron is simply a logical thing to emerge out of a pre-existing dive to the extremes in a system that encourages binary thinking.
(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FQkuyjdVgAAlf3q?format=jpg&name=medium)
Very logical thing that Macro. :lol:
As for the playing the extremes, it's standard left-wing procedure since 1983. Preferably the far-right so as to divide the right and it requires some skill Mitterand had. Yet even Mitterand had FN députés back then, thanks to a modification of the electoral law. Jupiter has no such excuse.
The political compass is a nonsense tool of libertarian propeganda
Quote from: Josquius on June 20, 2022, 05:54:32 AMWhat I'm not getting is the criticism of Macron for pushing people to extremes. How has he done this?- Is the idea by grabbing the centre he is responsible for the decline of the centre left and centre right parties?
Part of it is just that is the effect he has had. The result of Macron launching a ni-ni party has been to destroy the mainstream centre left in 2017, now in an electoral pact with the hard left and Greens. This election he's wiped out the mainstream centre right - I wouldn't be surprised to see them also fragment and at least some factions ending up allied with the far-right. I also think the RN have gone from 8 seats to over 80 after Macron's term in office - I don't see how you can remove responsibility for that from him.
Separately I'd note that Macron's own positioning in 2017 was that he'd help end the drift to extremes in French politics. His line was basically that the mainstream parties had failed, he would deliver and in doing so that would reduce support for LFI and RN. The problem is that, obviously, rhetorically that's the same message the LFI and RN have (and why I think there's a lot of cross over from 'populism' and 'technocracy'): the mainstream parties/normal democratic politics have failed we can save you.
So Macron set himself the challenge of diminishing the role of the extremes - he has failed at that. In addition by wiping the normal mainstream parties he's created a space where he can dominate but I'm not sure it's healthy politically. I think he's ultimately succeeded in de-politicising politics for many voters which is not a great solution. If you're on the left or right then there are now only the extremes; everything else is 'technocratic' management - largely by the traditional, entrenched French elite. I'm not sure it's great for democracy that your options are tankie, Enarque or fascist. There's not enough ideology there.
QuoteIt seems to me a bit wishful thinking and that Macron is simply a logical thing to emerge out of a pre-existing dive to the extremes in a system that encourages binary thinking.
I don't think there's anything logical or inevitable about Macron - I think more than almost any other politician in Europe he is a proper 'great man'. If not for him deciding he could break the mould with a new party (sharing his initials), I don't think this is the shape of French politics - and it's why I think there's a question about what happens after him.
There is no replacement at this point - maybe one will emerge. There is no real proper democratic party structure to LREM - there's not really members and activists or anything like a traditional party it is a movement around and supporting a personality. It might split but I don't know what the left/right wings of it would have because there's no party infrastructure - unless they also launch separate personalist movements. Meanwhile a lot of the traditional party infrastructure of the PS and LR may end up being broadly subsumed into the new broad coalitions of the left and right (including and led by the extremes). It's not clear.
Quote from: Josquius on June 20, 2022, 06:59:46 AMThe political compass is a nonsense tool of libertarian propeganda
:lmfao:
Libertarian, a very mainstream tendency in France indeed.
Quote from: Josquius on April 24, 2022, 12:00:03 PMThis seems very confused with the placement of some. And he seems confused too 😂
Your previous assessment, was not as bad as the one you just gave. Macron being confused (or confusing ?) was better.
PS: agree broadly with Sheilbh. Some anti-social policies, say diesel fuel taxes, among others, using greenwashing as an excuse (nothing done against gas-guzzling SUVs)while ending the wealth tax (bad timing at the very least) by Macron really helped a lot RN & LFI/whavever coalition.
Quote from: Duque de Bragança on June 20, 2022, 07:45:34 AMQuote from: Josquius on June 20, 2022, 06:59:46 AMThe political compass is a nonsense tool of libertarian propeganda
:lmfao:
Libertarian, a very mainstream tendency in France indeed.
:blink:
No, seriously. The political compass was invented by a libertarian activist as a rhetorical tool to convince people of the righteousness of their side. Not as any sort of genuine neutral attempt to explain politics.
QuoteYour previous assessment, was not as bad as the one you just gave. Macron being confused (or confusing ?) was better.
PS: agree broadly with Sheilbh. Some anti-social policies, say diesel fuel taxes, among others, using greenwashing as an excuse (nothing done against gas-guzzling SUVs)while ending the wealth tax (bad timing at the very least) by Macron really helped a lot RN & LFI/whavever coalition.
Both apply. :)
Its a bad way to look at politics and even within the rules it sets up for itself this version is confused.
Quote from: Josquius on June 20, 2022, 08:24:32 AMNo, seriously. The political compass was invented by a libertarian activist as a rhetorical tool to convince people of the righteousness of their side. Not as any sort of genuine neutral attempt to explain politics.
And? Banned for ever? So you have nothing to say about Macron so you try to divert attention by using the libertarian strawman? Nice try.
As for the so-called "libertarian invention", the French concepts "girouette" or à "géométrie variable" predate your so-called libertarian invention. They are often used for politicians not known for their consistency.
"Rose des Vents" (Wind Rose) would be a more poetic rendering in French but is not used (compass is a false friend since compass = boussole). Guess what, déboussolé, from boussole (compass) means confused. :P
So it is perfectly relevant for Macron since no French president has ever flip flopped so hard, constantly, at least verbally or on writing.
Quote from: Duque de Bragança on June 20, 2022, 08:56:45 AMQuote from: Josquius on June 20, 2022, 08:24:32 AMNo, seriously. The political compass was invented by a libertarian activist as a rhetorical tool to convince people of the righteousness of their side. Not as any sort of genuine neutral attempt to explain politics.
And? Banned for ever? So you have nothing to say about Macron so you try to divert attention by using the libertarian strawman? Nice try.
:blink:
Strawman? Nice try at what?
I think it's a pretty interesting and not too well known fact.
I was the one who brought macron up, you're the one who introduced a different topic related to him.
QuoteAs for the so-called "libertarian invention", the French concepts "girouette" or à "géométrie variable" predate your so-called libertarian invention. They are often used for politicians not known for their consistency.
"Rose des Vents" (Wind Rose) would be a more poetic rendering in French but is not used (compass is a false friend since compass = boussole). Guess what, déboussolé, from boussole (compass) means confused. :P
So it is perfectly relevant for Macron since no French president has ever flip flopped so hard, constantly, at least verbally or on writing.
You say they predate it but don't give a year. A quick Google and the references I get, which seem to have quite a different "changing with the wind" meaning, are fairly recent.
Fairly extraordinary reports on Macron trying to form a "national unity government. Le Pen said that at her meeting with Macron yesterday, he mentioned the idea of a "national unity government" including the RN. Le Pen is opposed.
The leader of the Communists said that Macron also spoke about a "national unity government" with him which he seemed to envision including all parties - apparently the Communists would participate, but it would depend on what the government's program was.
Presumably he's trying to see if anyone bites so he can build a coalition, but this feels like where you end up if you don't think politics is about ideology and choices but instead just technocratic "governing". From bulwark against the extremes to trying to create a coalition with them in 5 years is a hell of a journey.
Quote from: Josquius on June 22, 2022, 02:49:32 AMI think it's a pretty interesting and not too well known fact.
It's a detail (French meaning) and not particulary relevant in a French context.
Nice try at a diversion (reading comprehension issues and not just in French for you I see).
QuoteYou say they predate it but don't give a year. A quick Google and the references I get, which seem to have quite a different "changing with the wind" meaning, are fairly recent.
:secret:
They are idioms, and have been used accordingly for a long time. Any francophone would know that.
But then you and the French language... :lol:
TLFI
http://stella.atilf.fr/Dendien/scripts/tlfiv5/advanced.exe?8;s=150447705; (http://stella.atilf.fr/Dendien/scripts/tlfiv5/advanced.exe?8;s=150447705;)
QuoteB. Au fig. Personne versatile, qui change fréquemment d'opinion. Voilà, selon moi, comme on doit agir lorsque l'on tient au titre d'homme sérieux... Autrement on n'est qu'une girouette (BARRIÈRE, Faux bonsh., 1856, II, 10, p. 80) :
2. Il y avait aussi Mirbeau, plein d'une effervescence amère et joyeuse, girouette au cœur chaud et aux yeux clairs, dont les jugements littéraires étaient fondés sur le plus ou moins de sympathie qu'inspiraient, à la ravissante, mais guerrière Madame Mirbeau, ses confrères des deux sexes.
L. DAUDET, Brév. journ., 1936, p. 35.
Quote from: Duque de Bragança on June 22, 2022, 07:09:06 AMQuote from: Josquius on June 22, 2022, 02:49:32 AMI think it's a pretty interesting and not too well known fact.
It's a detail (French meaning) and not particulary relevant in a French context.
Nice try at a diversion (reading comprehension issues and not just in French for you I see).
Diversion?
Just what do you think I'm trying to divert from here?
Quote:secret:
They are idioms, and have been used accordingly for a long time. Any francophone would know that.
But then you and the French language... :lol:
TLFI
http://stella.atilf.fr/Dendien/scripts/tlfiv5/advanced.exe?8;s=150447705; (http://stella.atilf.fr/Dendien/scripts/tlfiv5/advanced.exe?8;s=150447705;)
QuoteB. Au fig. Personne versatile, qui change fréquemment d'opinion. Voilà, selon moi, comme on doit agir lorsque l'on tient au titre d'homme sérieux... Autrement on n'est qu'une girouette (BARRIÈRE, Faux bonsh., 1856, II, 10, p. 80) :
2. Il y avait aussi Mirbeau, plein d'une effervescence amère et joyeuse, girouette au cœur chaud et aux yeux clairs, dont les jugements littéraires étaient fondés sur le plus ou moins de sympathie qu'inspiraient, à la ravissante, mais guerrière Madame Mirbeau, ses confrères des deux sexes.
L. DAUDET, Brév. journ., 1936, p. 35.
As said that does seem to be a totally different thing to the political compass. We have this expression of "he changes like the wind" in English too. It carries no association of having views across the political spectrum. You could equally do this about whether you want to go out tonight or not.
And yes. French, much like tomatoes, doesn't really agree with me.
Quote from: Sheilbh on June 22, 2022, 06:31:32 AMFairly extraordinary reports on Macron trying to form a "national unity government. Le Pen said that at her meeting with Macron yesterday, he mentioned the idea of a "national unity government" including the RN. Le Pen is opposed.
The leader of the Communists said that Macron also spoke about a "national unity government" with him which he seemed to envision including all parties - apparently the Communists would participate, but it would depend on what the government's program was.
Presumably he's trying to see if anyone bites so he can build a coalition, but this feels like where you end up if you don't think politics is about ideology and choices but instead just technocratic "governing". From bulwark against the extremes to trying to create a coalition with them in 5 years is a hell of a journey.
:lol:
Nicely put.
I will believe it when I see it. So far LR does not want to play the useful idiot for Macron's clique (à la Liberal-Democrat with Cameron).
They would be the natural choice, but even an idiot can see it would spell their end as a separate political force.
As for the 5 years, in a year Macron could have new legislative elections but that's quite a gambit.
Communists, are allied with Mélenchon yet insisted to get their own parliamentary group, are not enough to form a coalition.
Quote from: Josquius on June 22, 2022, 07:14:22 AMAnd yes. French, much like tomatoes, doesn't really agree with me.
At last, we agree on something ! :cheers:
Not seen any posts on the huge protests in France which seem quite serious.
But I saw this story about a woman being threatened with prosecution for insulting Macron on social media:
https://www.euronews.com/culture/2023/03/30/heres-the-story-behind-the-trending-hashtag-macronordure-macrongarbage
Obviously there's also a lot of footage of very strong and unprovoked police violence across the protests - I'd note Macron had proposed laws criminalising recording footage of the police in the course of their duties (in 2020). Obviously the context is passing significant pension reforms using a constitutional tool that allows the government to impose legislation without a parliamentary vote (but instead allows for votes of no confidence in the government) which has been used a number of times in the nine months since the legislatives.
I think it's all adding up to a slightly worrying authoritarian turn in France (though it's not often covered like that given how Macron is coded) which is a particular concern because Macron's project has wiped out the mainstream left and right, but is now also presenting incredible challenges for any potential successors.
The law making it illegal to insult a President has always been there, apparently, but was abrogated by François Hollande.
Duque would know better than me.
This is hardly new, more like a rehash of the "yellow vests" period.
Zupiter's authoritarian tendencies are showing up, again, see anti-terrorist "temporary" measures now part of the law corpus.
Given his very low legitimacy, no majority in the Assemblée Nationale, it's even worse.
Quote from: viper37 on March 31, 2023, 04:21:16 PMThe law making it illegal to insult a President has always been there, apparently, but was abrogated by François Hollande.
The same goes for Turkish lese majeste laws, but I know what we'd think when they're used in Turkey. Especially with the context of a lot of police violence and using constitutional powers to force legislation through.
France work places are toxic. Not surprised that no one is looking to have to work 2 more years in them.
Worse then NA?
Quote from: viper37 on March 31, 2023, 04:21:16 PMThe law making it illegal to insult a President has always been there, apparently, but was abrogated by François Hollande.
Duque would know better than me.
I checked it, and yes it was changed under Flanby following a last use of the law under Sarko (I still remember the incident
casse-toi pov' con), which was challenged all the way to the European courts so France had to change it.
No use of that law from after Pompidou (1969-74) and then only once to Chirac included.
Under de Gaulle and the whole French Algeria debacle it saw much use however, though precise numbers are hard to find.
Quote from: HVC on April 01, 2023, 01:06:06 PMWorse then NA?
Off-topic. :P Though Macron is probably a toxic person to work with. :P
Quote from: HVC on April 01, 2023, 01:06:06 PMWorse then NA?
Not sure. But speaking to French people who moved to London the big difference they noticed was how much more hierarchical and formal work environments were in France.
I saw a little bit of it in a law firm - I was a junior associate and when we were on an international project I'd often be coordinating responses from different offices. It'd be fine and I'd be writing to partners (and also associates) in the US, Canada, loads of European and Asian countries - except France. It was explained by my boss that the French partner would just ignore anything from me because I was too junior. He'd only respond to emails from whichever partner in the UK I was working for :lol:
That's from lawyers and professionals and I'm sure it's different in different industries.
Maybe he was just a dick :D
Quote from: Duque de Bragança on April 01, 2023, 01:10:15 PMQuote from: HVC on April 01, 2023, 01:06:06 PMWorse then NA?
Off-topic. :P Though Macron is probably a toxic person to work with. :P
I mean he is a politician lol
Quote from: HVC on April 01, 2023, 01:25:46 PMMaybe he was just a dick :D
:lol: Fair. It was never the associates who were lovely - and there were some exceptions (I want to say younger partners maybe :ph34r:) but it was more than just one lawyer where I was basically warned they'd only reply or acknowledge from someone at their status.
Quote from: Sheilbh on April 01, 2023, 11:51:23 AMQuote from: viper37 on March 31, 2023, 04:21:16 PMThe law making it illegal to insult a President has always been there, apparently, but was abrogated by François Hollande.
The same goes for Turkish lese majeste laws, but I know what we'd think when they're used in Turkey. Especially with the context of a lot of police violence and using constitutional powers to force legislation through.
I don't agree with the law. I disagree that these charges marks a turn toward an authoritarian France.
The law has always been there, it's nothing new. France has always been more authoritarian than Canada where we don't codify it, resorting to other, more informal means of censorship.
Québec Solidaire's leader is trying is damn best to use the Assemblée Nationale to censor a Montreal radio station and particular commentator that insulted him a couple of weeks ago, calling him a "bastard" and a "hypocrite". If he ever comes to power, you can bet we will have a similar law as France dealing with insults to politicians, within the limits of Quebec's powers.
As for police violence, I have no idea, really, I haven't been watching all of it. Protestors aren't known to be peaceful either.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GP2G1yud3zo
Macron is an idiot, at best (I'm being generous), for pushing his reform by decree when he could not get the vote through the NA, but that does not excuse vandalism by the protestors.
Quote from: viper37 on April 01, 2023, 02:04:43 PMAs for police violence, I have no idea, really, I haven't been watching all of it. Protestors aren't known to be peaceful either.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GP2G1yud3zo
That's fair - but I'd note that police violence, arbitrary arrests and unprovoked police attacks on peaceful protesters have been identified and condemned by AI, the European Council and HRW. I've also seen this being reported in Le Monde and France 24.
Again I think the context matters. We saw similar police violence against the gilets jaunes, we saw proposals to criminalise recording the police following BLM protests, plus frankly the policing of the Champions League final. Cumulatively I think it creates a picture of the way the state is using the police.
And while it's always true that there's protests and the French police don't have a great reputation, regardless of the President, there is more of a pattern under Macron of politically creating cover and lying for the police who in turn are incredibly repressive to opponents.
QuoteMacron is an idiot, at best (I'm being generous), for pushing his reform by decree when he could not get the vote through the NA, but that does not excuse vandalism by the protestors.
I don't totally disagree.
None of this is necessarily agains French law form what I've read. The Fifth Republic has a pretty authoritarian constitution, if the president wants to use it, because it was made in de Gaulle's image. But the sense I get is that Macron is really pushing things and using all of the powers to push his agenda.
Plus, it's right, making temporary state of emergency anti-terrorism laws permanent including fairly vast collection of private messages online and "algorithmic" intelligence gathering.
I think it's bad and should be called out for what it is which is an authoritarian turn/creeping authoritarianism. I also think it's creating risk for the next election. At best it's really difficult to see this as helpful for any potential successor from within Macron's movement (unless President Darmanin :ph34r: :bleeding:) - at worst it's laying a fairly alarming template for a president who doesn't have a National Assembly majority or much legitimacy to push their agenda.
Quote from: Sheilbh on April 01, 2023, 02:39:24 PMPlus, it's right, making temporary state of emergency anti-terrorism laws permanent including fairly vast collection of private messages online and "algorithmic" intelligence gathering.
That case you quoted was a public message on Twitter, though.
Using private messages to fight terrorism isn't unheard of. It was centered on e-mail and text messages in the past, but they aren't the dominant form of communication anymore.
It's better to intrude a little on privacy and prevent terrorism attacks like the Bataclan than to allow total privacy, imho.
I'm ok with some kind of red flag search, like in the past. Some keywords trigger an automatic surveillance of an individual.
It seems like this is how they caught their latest suspect in Canada a few weeks ago.
Quote from: viper37 on April 01, 2023, 04:53:49 PMThat case you quoted was a public message on Twitter, though.
Sorry I didn't mean to imply they were linked. Beyond the fact that they're both in a similar direction.
QuoteUsing private messages to fight terrorism isn't unheard of. It was centered on e-mail and text messages in the past, but they aren't the dominant form of communication anymore.
It's better to intrude a little on privacy and prevent terrorism attacks like the Bataclan than to allow total privacy, imho.
I'm ok with some kind of red flag search, like in the past. Some keywords trigger an automatic surveillance of an individual.
It seems like this is how they caught their latest suspect in Canada a few weeks ago.
Yeah so my understanding is that French civil liberties and privacy campaigners have been flagging that "what France is doing is not normal" in the context of Western counter-terrorism/mass surveillance. It was initially temporary as part of the state of emergency and has been made permanent. For example it's not actually fully clear what the scope is - it's incredibly vague on what the state can surveil and then algorithmically monitor for "red flags" (as decided by the state). And within the European context, French law already had an incredibly large amount of surveillance with relatively limited oversight.
And there is no evidence it's necessarily helpful. Darmanin has made some big claims about this but the government refuses to publish any impact assessment or evidence on this as it's classified for national security.
So the question isn't total privacy v stopping terrorism but a level of surveillance that is unusual in the West, that is algorithmically powered and unclear in how broad it actually is - as I say it's an emergency measure that's been made permanent (and why we should always be highly suspicious of "state of emergency/exception" rules). As with the precedent of passing lots of very controversial laws by decree, using the police to crack down on oppisition with significant force - all of this may be lawful and may even be directed for good ends but is, I think, a real cause for concern.
I'll have to check in the French forum. The guys have been discussing it for a while, but I haven't been paying much attention. I haven't read a lot about the changes Macron has implemented either. It seemed more in the vein of what France was already doing, but it seems I was mistaken.
Quote from: Sheilbh on April 01, 2023, 05:35:01 PMYeah so my understanding is that French civil liberties and privacy campaigners have been flagging that "what France is doing is not normal" in the context of Western counter-terrorism/mass surveillance. It was initially temporary as part of the state of emergency and has been made permanent. For example it's not actually fully clear what the scope is - it's incredibly vague on what the state can surveil and then algorithmically monitor for "red flags" (as decided by the state). And within the European context, French law already had an incredibly large amount of surveillance with relatively limited oversight.
And there is no evidence it's necessarily helpful. Darmanin has made some big claims about this but the government refuses to publish any impact assessment or evidence on this as it's classified for national security.
So the question isn't total privacy v stopping terrorism but a level of surveillance that is unusual in the West, that is algorithmically powered and unclear in how broad it actually is - as I say it's an emergency measure that's been made permanent (and why we should always be highly suspicious of "state of emergency/exception" rules). As with the precedent of passing lots of very controversial laws by decree, using the police to crack down on oppisition with significant force - all of this may be lawful and may even be directed for good ends but is, I think, a real cause for concern.
I don't know if this is institutional or anything so I could be way off here. But Macron himself seems to have a weird Napoleonic complex which only works if you are Napoleon. Or Charles de Gaulle I guess. He doesn't have the kind of prestige to pull off these big moves he keeps making.
I mean even de Gaulle had mass street protests against him.
Quote from: Valmy on April 01, 2023, 09:10:09 PMI don't know if this is institutional or anything so I could be way off here. But Macron himself seems to have a weird Napoleonic complex which only works if you are Napoleon. Or Charles de Gaulle I guess. He doesn't have the kind of prestige to pull off these big moves he keeps making.
I mean even de Gaulle had mass street protests against him.
I think it is partly institutional. The Fifth Republic is made in the image of de Gaulle - but he's a fairly singular figure :lol:
I think Macron has spoken about this:
Quote"In French politics, this absence is the presence of a King, a King whom, fundamentally, I don't think the French people wanted dead," said Macron. "The Revolution dug a deep emotional abyss, one that was imaginary and shared: the King is no more!" According to Macron, since the Revolution France has tried to fill this void, most notably with Napoleon and then Charles de Gaulle, which was only partially successful. "The rest of the time," said Macron, "French democracy does not manage to fill this void."
So even if it's not fully a thing, it's a thing Macron and I think is part of how he performs the role of president.
Quote from: HVC on April 01, 2023, 01:26:09 PMQuote from: Duque de Bragança on April 01, 2023, 01:10:15 PMQuote from: HVC on April 01, 2023, 01:06:06 PMWorse then NA?
Off-topic. :P Though Macron is probably a toxic person to work with. :P
I mean he is a politician lol
Obviously, and a particularly toxic one.
:P
Quote from: HVC on April 01, 2023, 01:06:06 PMWorse then NA?
Yes, by many miles. Like mentioned, they have a highly hierarchical workplace and a Japanese-like expectation of boss-employee relationship.
Sure reflects my experiences of the francophone Swiss.
Even the simplest of mails need max formality. It's weird.
Will also explain a lot of Frances by choice youth unemployment.
Quote from: Grey Fox on April 02, 2023, 09:52:34 AMQuote from: HVC on April 01, 2023, 01:06:06 PMWorse then NA?
Yes, by many miles. Like mentioned, they have a highly hierarchical workplace and a Japanese-like expectation of boss-employee relationship.
Having bossed for the Japanese in Germany, I beg to differ. :P
My father certainly found France less hierarchical than Portugal in general, for his time, for what it's worth. Damning with faint praise.
As for (francophone) Switzerland and France being close, that's not what I hear.
Why do we have this hijack by the way?
Loupil Gris still triggered by a French grammar rule of Italian origin or what?
Or what.
I said that I understand the French not wanting to work 2 more years considering they have a toxic work environment.
So a pure off-topic rant. :D
Quote from: Duque de Bragança on April 04, 2023, 06:58:36 AMSo a pure off-topic rant. :D
Nothing ranty about it, though. Not really off topic either, given it's directly related to the current topic in the thread.
Quote from: Jacob on April 04, 2023, 09:47:56 AMQuote from: Duque de Bragança on April 04, 2023, 06:58:36 AMSo a pure off-topic rant. :D
Nothing ranty about it, though. Not really off topic either, given it's directly related to the current topic in the thread.
Goupil Gris likes to rant all the time about French things, be it some grammar rule with counterintuitive exceptions imported from Italy (the horror!) or work places of a country he has never experienced.
Furthermore, it's not directly related to the current topic, since it's not about French work places being toxic, but work and financing pensions in the long termn in general (executives employees and workers have different perspectives), not to mention he current ivory tower dweller at the Élysée, in particular.
Quote from: Duque de Bragança on April 04, 2023, 11:33:44 AMGoupil Gris likes to rant all the time about French things, be it some grammar rule with counterintuitive exceptions imported from Italy (the horror!) or work places of a country he has never experienced.
French companies do operate internationally and people outside of France sometimes work for them. Similarly, French companies do business with non-French companies. This can allow people outside of France to develop informed opinions about French workplace culture.
I have no opinion about French grammar rules, however, imported from Italy (the horror!) or not.
QuoteFurthermore, it's not directly related to the current topic, since it's not about French work places being toxic, but work and financing pensions in the long termn in general (executives employees and workers have different perspectives), not to mention he current ivory tower dweller at the Élysée, in particular.
It was a joke that was perfectly germane to the topic at hand, and very much in character for languish. As is your indignant defence of French honour :hug:
Quote from: Jacob on April 04, 2023, 11:45:50 AMQuoteFrench companies do operate internationally and people outside oft France sometimes work for them. Similarly, French companies do business with non-French companies allowing people. his allows them to develop informed opinions about French workplace culture.
Remember, according to Zupiter, there is not a French culture, so French companies abroad would not operate differently from the country they are doing business in or with. :P
QuoteI have no opinion about French grammar rules, however, imported from Italy (the horror!) or not.
Think of that rule as one which would perhaps legitimately despair Josquius, for once. :P
It's the exceptions I find troublesome, not the rule itself. I could enter into details but that would not very interesting, and probably trigger Goupil Gris. :D
That's one rule I would reform, by removing the exceptions.
QuoteIt was a joke that was perfectly germane to the topic at hand, and very much in character for languish. As is your indignant defence of French honour :hug:
For you maybe, but not for Goupil Gris. :contract: :P
Quote from: Duque de Bragança on April 04, 2023, 12:06:50 PMRemember, according to Zupiter, there is not a French culture, so French companies abroad would not operate differently from the country they are doing business in or with. :P
I did not realize you were so loyal to Zupiter that you would accept that :o
QuoteThink of that rule as one which would perhaps legitimately despair Josquius, for once. :P
It's the exceptions I find troublesome, not the rule itself. I could enter into details but that would not very interesting, and probably trigger Goupil Gris. :D
That's one rule I would reform, by removing the exceptions.
I guess now you have to storm the Academy to force through your proposed changes?
QuoteFor you maybe, but not for Goupil Gris. :contract: :P
Seems to be pretty in character, since he's the one who made the statement...
I seem to recall he works for a French company.
Quote from: Jacob on April 04, 2023, 12:10:16 PMI did not realize you were so loyal to Zupiter that you would accept that :o
Easy, the opportunist and demagog he is changes idea whenever convenient so you just have to wait. Remember when he was trying to get a majority against the leftists by considering Marine's party as "republican"?
OTOH, I'll grant you he can be a bit hard to follow at times.
QuoteI guess now you have to storm the Academy to force through your proposed changes?
Won't work, they are the Immortals.
Besides, from time to time they propose some simplification reforms and people are still unhappy.
I still don't get how people were triggered back in 1990 with that very limited spelling reform.
Best be patient, besides I can live with those exceptions, unlike Goupil Gris.
Teachers of French as a foreign language might disagree.
QuoteSeems to be pretty in character, since he's the one who made the statement...
Precisely. :)
Quote from: Duque de Bragança on April 04, 2023, 06:58:36 AMSo a pure off-topic rant. :D
Duque did you take part in this, seems right up your street/champs:
(https://ichef.bbci.co.uk/news/976/cpsprodpb/A4A5/production/_129994124_mediaitem129994121.jpg)
Missed it. :( Alphonse Daudet's Les Lettres de mon moulin? :hmm:
Could have been worse.
I don't live close to the Arc de Triomphe anymore and I had family visiting so I was busy as the local scout.
PS: local scout advice
During the high season, avoid Orlybus when going to Paris from Orly airport.
Quote from: Duque de Bragança on June 05, 2023, 08:32:49 AMMissed it. :( Alphonse Daudet's Les Lettres de mon moulin? :hmm:
Could have been worse.
I don't live close to the Arc de Triomphe anymore and I had family visiting so I was busy as the local scout.
PS: local scout advice
During the high season, avoid Orlybus when going to Paris from Orly airport.
:(
Yeah, I thought you'd have liked being part of it.
Couple of odd/striking remarks from the French right recently.
First I saw that Sarko has said that Le Pen's RN have "proved" their republican values - i.e. they're no longer beyond the pale/far-right. Following that there'd be no need for a republican front to defeat them in the second round because they are republican now.
Secondly Gerald Darmanin, Macron's Interior Minister who likes to pose as more hard-line than Le Pen (who he has accused of being "soft on Islam"), has now said Le Pen is "pretty likely" to win the 2027 election.
My understanding is that they are allies and Darmanin is one of the possible candidates for Macron's centre bloc - so this may be just some pretty outrageous positioning from them. I think almost as a threat - if Le Pen is now a sufficiently republican candidate the right don't have to hold their nose and vote for a candidate they don't like, so you'd better nominate an authoritarian right-winger who doesn't like Muslims rather than some centrist, liberal or, God forbid, any of the surviving centre left Macron supporters and, by the way, have you met M. Darmanin.
The other side is similar but I wonder if they're laying the groundwork for the right of Macron's movement to rally to Le Pen in the event that the first round ends with a Melenchon-Le Pen run-off? I think there's been some polling recently that indicates that may be a possibility.
But the other side of this is that from what I understand Darmanin is pretty unpopular. That actually he is probably the candidate from Macron's bloc that is most likely to cause a Melenchon-Le Pen run-off because a lot of Macron's liberal, centrist and remaining centre left supporters hate him, kind of understandably given the way he's positioned himself. It feels like they're playing with fire with this sort of positioning to undermine more popular alternatives like Edouard Philippe and maybe inadvertently setting up a heads she wins, tails you lose situation....which is concerning.
Again just not convinced it was a great idea to blow up the established party system around a non-ideologically defined, personality based political project :ph34r: :hmm:
Darmanin has no chance in hell to be elected since he is really unpopular.
Quote from: Crazy_Ivan80 on October 18, 2023, 09:18:25 AMIn related news, but I'm sure one of resident Frenchman will deal with it more extensively in the French politics thread (assuming we have one): apparently Nupes just imploded be melenchon likes Hamas too much
Surprise, surprise, Mélenchon's islamo-leftists, most of LFI but for Ruffin, refuse to condemn clearly Hamas, so the communists, socialists and greens are more than tempted to found a new alliance.
Not to mention that Mélenchon has authoritarian tendencies and the frontal opposition to Jupiter does not give results.
https://www.france24.com/en/europe/20231018-french-left-wing-alliance-on-brink-of-collapse-over-middle-east-conflict-row (https://www.france24.com/en/europe/20231018-french-left-wing-alliance-on-brink-of-collapse-over-middle-east-conflict-row)
QuoteFrench left-wing alliance on brink of collapse over Middle East conflict
France's left-wing alliance against President Emmanuel Macron and his supporters was close to breakup Wednesday, with tensions erupting over responses to the Israeli-Palestinian conflict.
The Socialist Party (PS) – a heavyweight party of government just a few years ago but now a rump of its former self – voted overnight to "suspend" participation in the NUPES alliance with hard-left France Unbowed (LFI), Greens and Communists.
Its board accused LFI of "constantly stoking conflict" within the alliance, after former presidential candidate Jean-Luc Melenchon and his leadership circle refused to call Hamas's bloody October 7 assault on Israel a "terrorist" attack.
The largest left-wing party in France's 577-seat parliament, with 74 MPs, LFI's hard-charging style of total opposition to Macron and sometimes controversial stunts and remarks has often left its allies grinding their teeth.
Socialist Party leader Olivier Faure "is breaking up NUPES" over "a personal issue with me about Israel (and) Palestine," Melenchon wrote on X, formerly Twitter, on Wednesday morning in a message that later appeared to have been deleted.
Faure had earlier told Socialist leaders that Melenchon "had been a unifying force, but today he has become an obstacle", calling for "radical change in the way we think about uniting" the left.
Yannick Jadot, former Greens presidential candidate, said that "we have to suspend our ties with LFI so long as they haven't strongly clarified their basic values".
French Interior Minister Gerald Darmanin said on Tuesday LFI lawmaker Daniele Obono should face a criminal investigation on suspicion of justifying terrorism after she described Hamas as a "resistance" movement.
NUPES was formed last year after Macron failed to secure a majority in parliament despite being re-elected to the presidency.
But tensions quickly became apparent, including over an admission of domestic violence by a close Melenchon supporter, strategy to oppose the government's widely-resented pension reforms, the war in Ukraine and this summer's riots.
The Communist Party already had one foot out of the door, voting a resolution Sunday that said NUPES was at an "impasse" and calling for a "new type of union" on the left.
Some voices within the PS and Greens have sought to keep the alliance alive, echoing arguments from LFI that the left has little chance of success if it does not stand together.
Any news about the butchery in crépol?
This is from Le Monde (https://www.lemonde.fr/societe/article/2023/11/21/apres-la-mort-d-un-adolescent-de-16-ans-a-crepol-sept-personnes-interpellees-annonce-gerald-darmanin_6201515_3224.html)
This is from La Dépêche (https://www.ladepeche.fr/2023/11/22/recit-mort-de-thomas-a-crepol-rixe-coups-de-couteau-fuite-retour-sur-le-deroule-de-la-soiree-dhorreur-11595722.php)
There was a bal for the local rubgy team. Toward the end of the night, a group of youth outsiders who weren't invited came to participate. The guard tried to stop them but he was attacked with a knife. Then 20 people came from the dance and defended him. There was a fight, the guard had his fingers sliced, one of the kids was stabbed and died, others were injured.
The ultra right wing medias are reporting this as a premeditated attack by North Africans to kill whites.
The suspect in the killing has been arrested, as per the articles I've read.
It's impossible to know about the motives until the police has completed their investigation. The current suspect denies being the one who stabbed the kid to death. Obviously, even if he did, unless it was a terrorist attack, he would be unlikely to claim responsibility for the murder.
thanks. reading through it.
Quite mindblowing
The French hinterland used to be pretty peaceful, at least compared to the big cities. I still remember when trouble about "youths" was said to be a mostly PLM thing (Paris Lyon Marseille).
For some reason, the first names of the suspects were not given ; they are given generally.
It's a dead giveaway, most of the time.
Quote from: Duque de Bragança on December 01, 2023, 06:02:13 AMThe French hinterland used to be pretty peaceful, at least compared to the big cities. I still remember when trouble about "youths" was said to be a mostly PLM thing (Paris Lyon Marseille).
For some reason, the first names of the suspects were not given ; they are given generally.
It's a dead giveaway, most of the time.
Causeur declassified the names I heard. All Swedes apparently
Quote from: Crazy_Ivan80 on December 01, 2023, 07:32:26 AMQuote from: Duque de Bragança on December 01, 2023, 06:02:13 AMThe French hinterland used to be pretty peaceful, at least compared to the big cities. I still remember when trouble about "youths" was said to be a mostly PLM thing (Paris Lyon Marseille).
For some reason, the first names of the suspects were not given ; they are given generally.
It's a dead giveaway, most of the time.
Causeur declassified the names I heard. All Swedes apparently
:lol:
Why am I not surprised? Main suspect is Chaïd A. and showed up on other media already. Showing full names of minors is not permitted but first names and initials for the last name is.
Did not know the "All Swedes apparently" thing was used in Belgium as well, or is it just the Walloons? :hmm:
PS: So Darmanin, the interior minister, vetoed giving the names of the suspects or is the
Parquet of Valence? RN is high enough now, no need to describe Marine as getting soft anymore.
The Flemish use it too.
It's what you get if the press and politicians assume the populace at large is made up of 'deplorables', and have stopped living in the real world.
It's been 30 years but our left-leaning intelligentsia is stil trying to figure out why the traditional voters of the left left the left and now vote right.
Hilarious to see the way this story is being framed here vs. elsewhere.
https://www.france24.com/en/europe/20231128-the-far-right-drummed-up-a-militia-french-extremists-seize-on-teen-s-murder-to-stoke-violence
"here vs elsewhere"?
Franced 24 is an official French news channel.
Quote from: Duque de Bragança on December 08, 2023, 06:31:21 AM"here vs elsewhere"?
Franced 24 is an official French news channel.
That's an example. It echoes the usual reporting elsewhere.
Quote from: Josquius on December 08, 2023, 06:32:20 AMQuote from: Duque de Bragança on December 08, 2023, 06:31:21 AM"here vs elsewhere"?
Franced 24 is an official French news channel.
That's an example. It echoes the usual reporting elsewhere.
Depends where elsewhere...
Quote from: Duque de Bragança on December 08, 2023, 06:34:18 AMQuote from: Josquius on December 08, 2023, 06:32:20 AMQuote from: Duque de Bragança on December 08, 2023, 06:31:21 AM"here vs elsewhere"?
Franced 24 is an official French news channel.
That's an example. It echoes the usual reporting elsewhere.
Depends where elsewhere...
As I say, basically everywhere I've seen the story is the far right doing their thing.
Quite different to the chat in this thread.
Quote from: Josquius on December 08, 2023, 06:37:31 AMQuote from: Duque de Bragança on December 08, 2023, 06:34:18 AMQuote from: Josquius on December 08, 2023, 06:32:20 AMQuote from: Duque de Bragança on December 08, 2023, 06:31:21 AM"here vs elsewhere"?
Franced 24 is an official French news channel.
That's an example. It echoes the usual reporting elsewhere.
Depends where elsewhere...
As I say, basically everywhere I've seen the story is the far right doing their thing.
Quite different to the chat in this thread.
The chat in this thread is based on local evidence and experience, which is quite different from some slanted media reporting.
Note the Figaro, a conservative mainstream source, will report on the cover-up about the perpetrators' names and first name, and will point out the so-called ultra-right menace would not exist had appropriate steps been taken before.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-67691484
QuoteFrance's education minister has visited a school where some pupils refused to look at a painting of nude women in class, sparking a teacher walkout.
The pupils also accused their teacher of making racist and Islamophobic remarks, which the school denies.
Teachers at the Jacques-Cartier school near Paris refused to work in response.
Tensions had apparently been high since the start of term, with officials citing repeated complaints by parents about coursework and punishments.
The row began when a teacher showed Diana and Actaeon, a Renaissance-era painting portraying a mythical scene from Roman poet Ovid's Metamorphoses.
Several first-year high school students, aged 11 and 12, said they were offended by the work by 17th-Century Italian painter Giuseppe Cesari, Sophie Venetitay from the Snes-FSU teachers union told AFP.
"Some students averted their gaze, felt offended, said they were shocked," Ms Venetitay said, adding that "some also alleged the teacher made racist comments" during a class discussion.
The next day, according to French reports, a parent wrote to the head teacher claiming that his son had been prevented from expressing himself in a later class discussion.
Staff felt they had been left unsupported and were working in a "degraded climate", Ms Venetitay said.
She said the case recalled the brutal killing of Samuel Paty, who was murdered after he showed caricatures of the Prophet Muhammad in a class.
French authorities believe untrue rumours spread about the class contributed to inciting an 18-year-old radicalised Chechen refugee to murder him close to the teacher's school in a Paris suburb. Last week, six teenagers were convicted for their role in the murder.
Education Minister Gabriel Attal said the pupils behind the complaints at the Jacques-Cartier school would face disciplinary measures and a team would visit the school to make sure it adhered to "values of the republic".
On Tuesday, classes at the school restarted after several days' interruption.
(https://ichef.bbci.co.uk/news/976/cpsprodpb/7BB4/production/_131986613_79d9d6a7-7c37-4f32-83e5-ed4d023d0c8c.jpg.webp)
QuoteSeveral first-year high school students, aged 11 and 12, said they were offended by the work by 17th-Century Italian painter Giuseppe Cesari, Sophie Venetitay from the Snes-FSU teachers union told AFP.
Our world has become rather fragile.
Quote from: crazy canuck on December 12, 2023, 01:28:58 PMOur world has become rather fragile.
My take is that it's a contest - or rather a series of contests - about who gets to exercise power. Whose norms should be respected? Whose norms should be respected in a way that effectively impose them on others around them, whether they share those norms or not? And who gets to define the norms and decide if they are being respected altogether?
Fragility - while potentially truly felt by individuals - is primarily a rhetorical position in the contest for power to control and impose norms in the public space. IMO, of course.
Quote from: Jacob on December 12, 2023, 01:43:40 PMQuote from: crazy canuck on December 12, 2023, 01:28:58 PMOur world has become rather fragile.
My take is that it's a contest - or rather a series of contests - about who gets to exercise power. Whose norms should be respected? Whose norms should be respected in a way that effectively impose them on others around them, whether they share those norms or not? And who gets to define the norms and decide if they are being respected altogether?
Fragility - while potentially truly felt by individuals - is primarily a rhetorical position in the contest for power to control and impose norms in the public space. IMO, of course.
I think you are correct about the series of contests going on throughout various societies. But I think it is based on a fragility in the sense that one cannot be exposed to other ideas for fear that those other ideas might cause the audience not to be adherents of the view you hold.
Quote from: crazy canuck on December 12, 2023, 02:31:49 PMQuote from: Jacob on December 12, 2023, 01:43:40 PMQuote from: crazy canuck on December 12, 2023, 01:28:58 PMOur world has become rather fragile.
My take is that it's a contest - or rather a series of contests - about who gets to exercise power. Whose norms should be respected? Whose norms should be respected in a way that effectively impose them on others around them, whether they share those norms or not? And who gets to define the norms and decide if they are being respected altogether?
Fragility - while potentially truly felt by individuals - is primarily a rhetorical position in the contest for power to control and impose norms in the public space. IMO, of course.
I think you are correct about the series of contests going on throughout various societies. But I think it is based on a fragility in the sense that one cannot be exposed to other ideas for fear that those other ideas might cause the audience not to be adherents of the view you hold.
You both make excellent points, my slight problem with the word fragility is that for me at least it implies a temporary or new phenomenon, but this sort of bigotry hiding (especially but not exclusively) behind religion is nothing new and it it was the default in our cultures until fairly recently and it still is in most other cultures as this incident actually highlights. I find it deeply reactionary.
Quote from: Tamas on December 12, 2023, 02:41:30 PMQuote from: crazy canuck on December 12, 2023, 02:31:49 PMQuote from: Jacob on December 12, 2023, 01:43:40 PMQuote from: crazy canuck on December 12, 2023, 01:28:58 PMOur world has become rather fragile.
My take is that it's a contest - or rather a series of contests - about who gets to exercise power. Whose norms should be respected? Whose norms should be respected in a way that effectively impose them on others around them, whether they share those norms or not? And who gets to define the norms and decide if they are being respected altogether?
Fragility - while potentially truly felt by individuals - is primarily a rhetorical position in the contest for power to control and impose norms in the public space. IMO, of course.
I think you are correct about the series of contests going on throughout various societies. But I think it is based on a fragility in the sense that one cannot be exposed to other ideas for fear that those other ideas might cause the audience not to be adherents of the view you hold.
You both make excellent points, my slight problem with the word fragility is that for me at least it implies a temporary or new phenomenon, but this sort of bigotry hiding (especially but not exclusively) behind religion is nothing new and it it was the default in our cultures until fairly recently and it still is in most other cultures as this incident actually highlights. I find it deeply reactionary.
I think a distinction can be drawn between a sincerely held religious belief, and one that is asserted but is merely performative. I think the latter applies to much of what is happening within the extreme right.
If the end result is trying to force your views (or "views") on larger society, the distinction doesn't matter much.
Quote from: crazy canuck on December 12, 2023, 04:06:07 PMI think a distinction can be drawn between a sincerely held religious belief, and one that is asserted but is merely performative. I think the latter applies to much of what is happening within the extreme right.
I don't doubt whether in any given case, when necessary, I don't doubt that a court of law could distinguish between the two if that is deemed necessary.
However, I think in many cases the boundaries are unclear and can shift. Sometimes people come to sincerely believe what started as a performative posture. At other times people continue the performance of a belief even after they stop really believing because there's some sort of advantage to the performance or because it's an important identity marker for them.
On consideration, I don't think the two are mutually exclusive either. You can sincerely believe something and not make a big performative deal out of it, or you can believe the same thing while really leaning into performative postures in support of your belief.
In that vein - you can believe or not believe that looking at
Ovid's Metamorphoses is inappropriate or religiously forbidden with varying degrees of intensity. It doesn't change the fact that a power struggle is taking place. The site of the power struggle is about how the school, the teacher, the student, the parents, and society at large should show (or not show) the painting. Whether the beliefs are sincerely held or not doesn't change the fact that it's a struggle is occuring, it merely changes one of the arguments in that struggle.
If we conclude that the objections to the painting are sincerely held, the quesiton still remains - how should we deal with that as a society, and as individuals?
Quote from: Jacob on December 12, 2023, 05:17:52 PMQuote from: crazy canuck on December 12, 2023, 04:06:07 PMI think a distinction can be drawn between a sincerely held religious belief, and one that is asserted but is merely performative. I think the latter applies to much of what is happening within the extreme right.
I don't doubt whether in any given case, when necessary, I don't doubt that a court of law could distinguish between the two if that is deemed necessary.
Put your doubts to rest, that is in fact the threshold question for a party asserting Freedom of Religion under our Charter.
It's like the David's wang thing that happened in the us a few months back. It's not strictly a Muslim thing, it's a conservative religious person thing.
Quote from: crazy canuck on December 12, 2023, 05:37:22 PMPut your doubts to rest, that is in fact the threshold question for a party asserting Freedom of Religion under our Charter.
For sure.
Quote from: HVC on December 12, 2023, 05:42:57 PMIt's like the David's wang thing that happened in the us a few months back. It's not strictly a Muslim thing, it's a conservative religious person thing.
In France or in Europe in general, it is a muslim or islamist thing.
Quote from: Duque de Bragança on December 13, 2023, 04:36:51 AMQuote from: HVC on December 12, 2023, 05:42:57 PMIt's like the David's wang thing that happened in the us a few months back. It's not strictly a Muslim thing, it's a conservative religious person thing.
In France or in Europe in general, it is a muslim or islamist thing.
No it isn't. You find the same thing in very conservative Christian communities here. There just aren't many of those left, and they're conveniently located in places that can be ignored.
Quote from: Maladict on December 13, 2023, 11:24:00 AMQuote from: Duque de Bragança on December 13, 2023, 04:36:51 AMQuote from: HVC on December 12, 2023, 05:42:57 PMIt's like the David's wang thing that happened in the us a few months back. It's not strictly a Muslim thing, it's a conservative religious person thing.
In France or in Europe in general, it is a muslim or islamist thing.
No it isn't. You find the same thing in very conservative Christian communities here. There just aren't many of those left, and they're conveniently located in places that can be ignored.
So it's not the same since they can be easily ignored.
Besides, even the ultra-conservative catholics/lefebvrists don't go after classic art, over here.
More on topic:
https://www.france24.com/en/france/20231212-contradictions-of-macronism-french-government-fights-to-save-face-after-immigration-bill-debacle (https://www.france24.com/en/france/20231212-contradictions-of-macronism-french-government-fights-to-save-face-after-immigration-bill-debacle)
Quote'Contradictions of Macronism': French government fights to save face after immigration bill debacle
President Emmanuel Macron's government vowed on Tuesday to press ahead with a controversial immigration bill, a day after its flagship reform was rejected by lawmakers in a humiliating setback. The political crisis has heaped further pressure on a government that has struggled to pass reforms without a parliamentary majority.
Issued on: 12/12/2023 - 20:42
By:
Gregor THOMPSON
Romain BRUNET
In a surprise move, the French National Assembly voted to back a motion rejecting a controversial immigration bill on Monday without even debating it. The motion, proposed by the Greens, gained support not only from left-wing representatives but also from members of the right-wing Les Républicains and the far-right National Rally.
The government's stunning defeat in parliament prompted opposition politicians to call for its dissolution. Jordan Bardella, the president of Marine Le Pen's National Rally, told BFMTV on Tuesday he was "ready to serve as prime minister".
The Élysée Palace, meanwhile, has moved fast to try and stop the political fallout. After an emergency ministerial meeting on Tuesday, government spokesperson Olivier Véran announced the formation of a special joint commission aimed at breaking the parliamentary gridlock "as fast as possible". The commission will be composed of seven representatives from both houses of parliament and will aim to return the bill to both chambers for a vote, Véran said.
While the proposed law is widely perceived as right-leaning, it failed to satisfy either the right or far right, which rejected a provision providing work permits to undocumented workers. Simultaneously, it proved too repressive for the left, which wants more to be done to avoid separating families and an annual debate held on migration quotas.
After months of seeking to secure a majority in the National Assembly for his flagship policy, Interior Minister Gérald Darmanin had a lot riding on the legislation's success. In response to the setback, Darmanin offered his resignation, which Macron rejected.
Darmanin had actively courted the right for months in an attempt to secure a majority, accepting a substantial rewrite of the bill in the conservative-led Senate. However, the bill presented on Monday in the Assembly bore little resemblance to the one voted on in the Senate, much to the dismay of Les Républicains.
Speaking on TF1 on Monday after the vote, Darmanin acknowledged the defeat. "It is a failure, of course, because I want to provide resources for the police (...) and magistrates to combat undocumented immigration," he said.
The limits of 'en même temps'
Macron's government has touted its proposed immigration law as a way to respond to voter concerns and prevent the far right from monopolising the immigration debate.
"The president believes it is necessary to respond to what he sees as a public demand, given the multitude of events that have highlighted immigration issues in the news. This explains the government's desire to show citizens that it takes the initiative and acts," said Bruno Cautrès, a researcher at the Centre for Political Research at Sciences Po Paris (CEVIPOF).
However, Monday's debacle in the National Assembly has exposed the limitations of the politics of "en même temps" ("at the same time") – an approach pursued by Macron since 2017, combining policy solutions from both the right and the left wings of French politics.
What was possible with an absolute majority during Macron's first term is no longer feasible with a minority government.
According to a poll conducted by Odoxa, 72% of French citizens consider better control of immigration to be the bill's most important objective. But the French are far from unified on how they want to resolve the system's issues – mirroring deep divisions between left and right.
Politicians are urging Macron's government to choose a side instead of attempting to please everyone. Olivier Marleix, the head of Les Républicains in the lower house, told French television channel LCI that his party was "ready to vote" if the text is revised to the version voted through by the Senate.
"We want the government to choose sides: either it's a right-wing text or a left-wing text, but it can't be both at the same time."
Even Macron's political movement, Renaissance, exhibited internal divisions over the bill. The left wing of Renaissance, led by Sacha Houlié, the chairman of the lower house commission that amended the bill, expressed dissatisfaction with concessions made by Darmanin to the right, particularly regarding the stripping of healthcare rights for undocumented migrants.
Read more
French doctors vow to 'disobey' bill stripping undocumented migrants of healthcare rights
"We have red lines. It would be irresponsible to go beyond our political DNA ... The adoption of the text cannot come at the cost of a division within the majority," said Houlié in an interview with French Financial daily Les Échos on Sunday.
"It is very difficult to achieve consensus on immigration, which generates a diversity of perspectives and a clear division between right and left," said Cautres. "There have been many hesitations by the government over the months. The balance is too difficult to find because this is typically the kind of issue where the contradictions of 'Macronism' can surface."
Fallout for Darmanin – and his colleagues
A day after having his resignation declined, Darmanin seems to have bounced back, for now. On a visit to a police station in the southeastern suburbs of Paris, Darmanin said Tuesday that "whatever path we take", he wanted "firm measures" to be put in place by the end of the year.
But his contortions throughout the process have left a lasting impression. After expressing satisfaction with the Senate's version which bore little resemblance to the initial bill, Darmanin had enthusiastically welcomed the version the National Assembly commission extensively revised – prompting critics to describe him as fickle.
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On Tuesday, Les Républicains party chief Eric Ciotti said he would like to work with Prime Minister Élizabeth Borne on the immigration law moving forward, suggesting his party had lost faith in the interior minister.
"How can we talk to someone (Darmanin) who constantly insults us? It is up to the prime minister to lead this discussion," he told Europe 1.
If the new special joint commission fails to reach a breakthrough, it will pose a significant challenge for Borne and her government. If she still intends to adopt the bill, she may find herself compelled to use Article 49.3 – a controversial provision in the French constitution that allows the executive to bypass the National Assembly to pass a law.
Triggering Article 49.3 for the 21st time in only 18 months would raise the political stakes even higher, particularly after the administration's controversial use of it in the spring to pass pension reform occasioned protests and disruptive strikes across France that garnered the world's attention.
A surprise indeed. Missed by 5 votes, in theory on the Macron side, with 4 absent without justification.
Quote from: Maladict on December 13, 2023, 11:24:00 AMNo it isn't. You find the same thing in very conservative Christian communities here. There just aren't many of those left, and they're conveniently located in places that can be ignored.
That is no way to refer to Scotland :o
I'm old enough to remember the chained up swings and broken glass in burns to stop kids playing on a Sabbath Day. They don't matter politically any more and even in their old heartlands in the Western Isles they're not the force they were (plus the Kirk has become more liberal/open). But we're talking within the last 30 years.
Similarly - Poland or Hungary exist. To pretend the only religiously motivated (or justified) philistinism in Europe is Muslim is only looking at one part of the continent (at best). Or look at abortion rights etc.
Quote from: Duque de Bragança on December 13, 2023, 11:30:52 AMQuote from: Maladict on December 13, 2023, 11:24:00 AMQuote from: Duque de Bragança on December 13, 2023, 04:36:51 AMQuote from: HVC on December 12, 2023, 05:42:57 PMIt's like the David's wang thing that happened in the us a few months back. It's not strictly a Muslim thing, it's a conservative religious person thing.
In France or in Europe in general, it is a muslim or islamist thing.
No it isn't. You find the same thing in very conservative Christian communities here. There just aren't many of those left, and they're conveniently located in places that can be ignored.
So it's not the same since they can be easily ignored.
Besides, even the ultra-conservative catholics/lefebvrists don't go after classic art, over here.
They did here. Some nudes were removed from a town hall about a year ago iirc.
Quote from: Sheilbh on December 13, 2023, 11:38:20 AMQuote from: Maladict on December 13, 2023, 11:24:00 AMNo it isn't. You find the same thing in very conservative Christian communities here. There just aren't many of those left, and they're conveniently located in places that can be ignored.
That is no way to refer to Scotland :o
I'm old enough to remember the chained up swings and broken glass in burns to stop kids playing on a Sabbath Day. They don't matter politically any more and even in their old heartlands in the Western Isles they're not the force they were (plus the Kirk has become more liberal/open). But we're talking within the last 30 years.
Similarly - Poland or Hungary exist. To pretend the only religiously motivated (or justified) philistinism in Europe is Muslim is only looking at one part of the continent (at best). Or look at abortion rights etc.
Does play count as work for a sabbath break? Or is this a Calvinist's hate fun thing?
Quote from: HVC on December 13, 2023, 03:18:37 PMDoes play count as work for a sabbath break? Or is this a Calvinist's hate fun thing?
It's a Calvinists hate fun thing :) Especially in the West and North with the wee Frees:
But also I think they viewed the sabbath as being about spiritual restfulness and anything else is sinful.
Poland is one thing but Hungarian bigotry is not religious in nature. Hungary is a very not religious country.
Quote from: Sheilbh on December 13, 2023, 11:38:20 AMQuote from: Maladict on December 13, 2023, 11:24:00 AMNo it isn't. You find the same thing in very conservative Christian communities here. There just aren't many of those left, and they're conveniently located in places that can be ignored.
That is no way to refer to Scotland :o
I'm old enough to remember the chained up swings and broken glass in burns to stop kids playing on a Sabbath Day. They don't matter politically any more and even in their old heartlands in the Western Isles they're not the force they were (plus the Kirk has become more liberal/open). But we're talking within the last 30 years.
Calvinist iconoclasts almost as bad as musliml iconoclasts? Who would have thought?!
Though that being the UK, to call it Europe is quite a stretch. :D
QuoteSimilarly - Poland or Hungary exist. To pretend the only religiously motivated (or justified) philistinism in Europe is Muslim is only looking at one part of the continent (at best). Or look at abortion rights etc.
Point taken for Poland, though catholic terrorism does not exist there.
As for Hungary, not as religious as pointed out by Tamas, with calvinists however ( :x ) it's not the same, (Calvinist) Orban notwithstanding.
Even lumping Central/Eastern/Balkan might be problematic with Czechia being even more secularised than France.
Not to mention removing some nudes from a town hall after some kind of legal action or protest is different than threats, protests and insults (vile islamophobe!) directed towards a teacher doing just his job.
PS: still not reactions about the defeat in the Assemblée for Macron's clique? They can still salvage it, with some concessions to the conservatives and the right.
Quote from: Tamas on December 13, 2023, 06:45:41 PMPoland is one thing but Hungarian bigotry is not religious in nature. Hungary is a very not religious country.
That's why I said religiously motivated - or justified. I think with Hungary it's more justification. That's definitely part of Orban's rhetoric internationally, but I think it is more justification than motivation. See also why you have the profoundly odd Rod Dreher now living in Budapest on a sinecure at the Danube Institute.
And Macron's government accommodating the right and passing their immigration reform with the support of Le Pen's group. For those wondering why I describe him as broadly centre-right <_<
Edit: Also not many barriers left but this is another normalisation of Le Pen as a normal political force operating to govern and legislate.
Edit: Libe summing it up ("you elected me to block the far-right, this vote binds me" / "for the RN the immigration law marks an ideological victory"):
(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/GBvOjsBW8AAubH_?format=jpg&name=900x900)
Macron has made the hard decision to support Gerard Depardieu.
Macron is having a typical Macron week:
- passes an immigration law with the support of the far-right.
- does not approve removing the Legion d'Honneur from Depardieu after he uttered so many awful comments I wouldn't know how to even start listing them (not to mention the rape accusations ongoing)
- says he'll invite Putin to 60th celebration of D-Day in June if he "commits to peace talks"
Does the G7 have any smart, charismatic leader, or are we just collectively electing the dumbest motherfuckers that exist. Putin is wanted by the ICC you fucking moron. How would that even work.
Quote from: Zoupa on December 21, 2023, 02:25:11 PMDoes the G7 have any smart, charismatic leader, or are we just collectively electing the dumbest motherfuckers that exist. Putin is wanted by the ICC you fucking moron. How would that even work.
Given that the west has barely upped its armsproduction and hasn't committed to help Ukraine win the war now rather than never, I'd say that the question is answered.
Unless Macron will have a surprise arrest done on Putin.
Either the conditions will never be met, or Putin would decline anyway...but even making the offer makes him a chump.
Quote from: Zoupa on December 21, 2023, 02:25:11 PMsays he'll invite Putin to 60th celebration of D-Day in June if he "commits to peace talks"
I also still think the 40s were 60 years ago, but I'm afraid we're ageing :console: :(
Not sure it's a real offer. I think Macron's pretty solid on Ukraine now but it does seem a bit of a callback to early flailing at the start of the full scale invasion.
Donald Tusk? Is Donald Tusk okay?
Superficially Meloni seems smart and charismatic, if only she wasn't fascist adjacent.
Poland isn't G7.
I think Macron and Biden are probably the best of the G7. Although I think Meloni is very dangerous. Sunak and Scholz I feel aren't up to it. Trudeau - despite being the one in office longest - still feels a little insubstantial/lightweight. I have no strong views whatsoever on Kishida :lol:
It's such a stupid French reflex to try and maintain a rapport with Russia. As if Germany was still a military threat.
I just read a thing somewhere saying that Kishida is in trouble domestically. He may not be around for long.
Quote from: Tamas on December 21, 2023, 06:37:12 PMIt's such a stupid French reflex to try and maintain a rapport with Russia. As if Germany was still a military threat.
I've said it before - and I'm guilty - but I think there is something to the French diplomat line I saw somewhere that the Brits are too relaxed and instinctively sympathetic with Turkey but normally right on Russia - and the French are the opposite.
I think it is also a part of the strategic autonomy/balancing power ambition, De Gaulle's vision of a Europe from the Atlantic to the Urals.
As I say I think Macron has been solid on Ukraine after the first month or so and I don't think that's changing any time soon on the substance.
Quote from: Sheilbh on December 21, 2023, 03:28:07 PMQuote from: Zoupa on December 21, 2023, 02:25:11 PMsays he'll invite Putin to 60th celebration of D-Day in June if he "commits to peace talks"
I also still think the 40s were 60 years ago, but I'm afraid we're ageing :console: :(
Not sure it's a real offer. I think Macron's pretty solid on Ukraine now but it does seem a bit of a callback to early flailing at the start of the full scale invasion.
He's desperate to be the guy that brought peace to the east. Don't know if it's for his ego, internal political consumption, or a need for sense of French prestige and power.
Quote from: Sheilbh on December 21, 2023, 07:29:34 PMQuote from: Tamas on December 21, 2023, 06:37:12 PMIt's such a stupid French reflex to try and maintain a rapport with Russia. As if Germany was still a military threat.
I've said it before - and I'm guilty - but I think there is something to the French diplomat line I saw somewhere that the Brits are too relaxed and instinctively sympathetic with Turkey but normally right on Russia - and the French are the opposite.
I think it is also a part of the strategic autonomy/balancing power ambition, De Gaulle's vision of a Europe from the Atlantic to the Urals.
As I say I think Macron has been solid on Ukraine after the first month or so and I don't think that's changing any time soon on the substance.
I think Ukraine is eventually going to win this war, and they'll remember who their friends were. It's all well and good to keep the assistance secret, but the average Ukrainian just knows that France is not sending much and their feckless president talks half the time about security concerns of russia, giving russia an off-ramp, wanting to talk to Putin etc etc ad nauseam.
It's an own goal, it's counterproductive to the narrative and it feels naive. Putin has internalized the loss of the West as partners for the next 20 years. It's not gonna happen, Macron. You're not gonna be the great statesman, presiding over the Treaty of Paris 2.0.
The Brits have had so much better comms/PR/discourse, it's not even close. Every Ukrainian loves the UK & BoJo, even if I'm pretty sure materially France and the UK have given roughly similar stuff.
Quote from: Tamas on December 21, 2023, 06:37:12 PMIt's such a stupid French reflex to try and maintain a rapport with Russia. As if Germany was still a military threat.
Yeah. There's just a huge segment of the population that's reflexively anti-american, hence sorta pro-russian. If you add the far-right and far-left, it's a wonder french assistance to Ukraine has amounted to anything at all. The kremlin narrative has penetrated public discourse to a shocking degree, including on established TV channels and newspapers.
Quote from: Sheilbh on December 21, 2023, 03:28:07 PMQuote from: Zoupa on December 21, 2023, 02:25:11 PMsays he'll invite Putin to 60th celebration of D-Day in June if he "commits to peace talks"
I also still think the 40s were 60 years ago, but I'm afraid we're ageing :console: :(
Holy crap lol... Yikes. Yeah, I turned 45 earlier this year :shutup:
Quote from: Zoupa on December 21, 2023, 09:37:36 PMI think Ukraine is eventually going to win this war, and they'll remember who their friends were. It's all well and good to keep the assistance secret, but the average Ukrainian just knows that France is not sending much and their feckless president talks half the time about security concerns of russia, giving russia an off-ramp, wanting to talk to Putin etc etc ad nauseam.
It's an own goal, it's counterproductive to the narrative and it feels naive. Putin has internalized the loss of the West as partners for the next 20 years. It's not gonna happen, Macron. You're not gonna be the great statesman, presiding over the Treaty of Paris 2.0.
I think you're probably right. I think in terms of material France (and Germany) are absolutely delivering. I think France, especially, also deserves great credit for shaping EU policy to Ukraine.
But I think in both cases it's taken a little bit of time to adjust and, from time to time, the sort of natural instincts of those states re-assert themselves. Germany will find its (substantial) aid accidentally lost in a quagmire of Bundeswehr bureaucracy; France will imagine itself settling the future of Europe with Russia.
QuoteThe Brits have had so much better comms/PR/discourse, it's not even close. Every Ukrainian loves the UK & BoJo, even if I'm pretty sure materially France and the UK have given roughly similar stuff.
Yeah. In part I think Macron has acknowledge this and said his intention is for France/Europe to lead on the reconstruction of Ukraine precisely because they've lost the perception battle on supporting Ukraine.
With the UK, ultimately, I think the RAF were flying in anti-tank weapons non-stop for six weeks before the war - as were the Poles, Nordics and, I think, Dutch and Canadians. And I think being early is something that's remembered. I also think it was - with his response on Hong Kong - Johnson's best moment and the moment that he was kind of perfect for. I think you see that now with Sunak who is basically now just "generically pro-Ukrainian European leader" in terms of support and gestures (unrelated but related I've always been very suspicious of Sunak on foreign policy - I think he's very much a creature of the Treasury who struggles to see beyond economic impact). I'm hopeful that once Labour win support will ramp up in a bit more of a visible way (Starmer was on a trip to British troops in Estonia today).
Edit: And I should say that despite my suspicions of Sunak, I think Cameron has actually been pretty impressive as Foreign Secretary - pushing the UK government towards backing a ceasefire in Gaza, meeting with Jimmy Lai's family and today the UK Consulate in Hong Kong formally demanding consular rights to meet with Lai. I suspect the first bit with the wholehearted backing of his department - less sure on the other two points. And his first visit was to Ukraine which I expect will be followed when Labour win.
Quote from: Sheilbh on December 21, 2023, 11:03:25 PM...when Labour win.
I know what general sentiment is, and I know what the polls say broadly... but I still get shivers when you tempt fate like that :lol:
What's the window for the next election?
Quote from: Jacob on December 22, 2023, 01:33:42 AMQuote from: Sheilbh on December 21, 2023, 11:03:25 PM...when Labour win.
I know what general sentiment is, and I know what the polls say broadly... but I still get shivers when you tempt fate like that :lol:
What's the window for the next election?
Inserts joke about windows and Russians here.
Quote from: Jacob on December 22, 2023, 01:33:42 AMI know what general sentiment is, and I know what the polls say broadly... but I still get shivers when you tempt fate like that :lol:
Fair - and I'm normally more cautious to avoid jinxing it. But I am pretty confident this government is done.
QuoteWhat's the window for the next election?
Latest it could be in theory is January 2025 but that's not going to happen - I think Starmer has ruled it out and it would mean an election campaign over Christmas.
So sometime this year. I feel like May is the traditional election time here, which is what Gups has heard - and I've read that the King's Speech didn't really include enough legislation for an entire year's worth of parliamentary time which might hint at May as well. On the other hand a government that 20%+ behind in the polls will tend to hold on as long as they can (and go for a long campaign) in the hope of something turning up. I think that's hard to imagine in the current situation.
I have some sympathy for the French who voted for Macron but got Le Pen. Afterall, that what I did in 2010 voting for CLegg but getting Cameron.
As well as French aid to Ukraine being understated, so too is east Asian aid.
For reasons they're not directly giving anything to ukraine beyond token helmets, humanitarian equipment, etc... But both Japan and Korea are keeping the US supplied allowing them in turn to pass stuff onto Ukraine.
Read a piece not too long ago about how Japan due to constitutional reasons is having to go through the IMF with financial aid but they're really keeping Ukraines lights on as Europe and America bicker.
Not for the first time struck by how Macron is covered in the Anglophone media. As while you see hints of the dissenting view, I can't help but feel that Macron would be covered very differently if he was, say, an Eastern European leader making these sort of speeches or policy priorities:
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2024/jan/17/emmanuel-macron-speech-press-conference-education-schooling-changes-screen-time-new-cabinet
Edit: For example "a grand plan against" infertility (not the right word but I can't think of an alternative) to allow "demographic rearmament" :blink: :ph34r:
Someone's been watching the handmaids tale.
Also, he has no bio kids. Physician heal they self.
And in fairness there's definitely stuff that can be done (and should) - childcare, child tax credits etc etc.
Just seems very odd to see "demographic rearmament" from not the far right. I know the grand replacement theory started in France, maybe it's just a lot bigger there than I'd thought?
Could be a bad translation.
Quote from: HVC on January 17, 2024, 03:03:04 PMCould be a bad translation.
"Pour permettre le réarmement démographique"? :lol:
Edit: But you could well be right it may not carry connotations it does here - but I'm not sure that's the case given the speech is being described (and spun) as a rejoinder to Le Pen.
Well... I tried :lol:
For what it's worth, I really don't think it was a dog-whistle to the far-right.
Demography has been a focus of french politicians since 1870. I remember seeing the prediction a few years back about forecasts saying France would pass Germany by 2045 and EVERYBODY on the political spectrum was ecstatic.
Quote from: Sheilbh on January 17, 2024, 02:56:10 PMAnd in fairness there's definitely stuff that can be done (and should) - childcare, child tax credits etc etc.
Just seems very odd to see "demographic rearmament" from not the far right. I know the grand replacement theory started in France, maybe it's just a lot bigger there than I'd thought?
It's a weird turn of phrase but he didn't mean a white only demographic adjustment.
My GF brought up Macron yesterday. She's very angry at his comments. If I go by what she says apparently a large section of the country is.
If its a far right dog whistle its not the usual 'down with brown people' folks its to, its the 'get women back in the kitchen!' side. The specific language he used about demographic rearmament and wombs as weapons was rather bad.
Which is interesting considering the nazi in chief is a woman. Big opportunity for her there.
Handmaids tale indeed.
Though apparently the solution is clear and not one he's interested in tackling- the French childcare system is worse than the UK and the tax system isn't supportive; a family with one working parent will pay significantly less tax than a working single mother.
Quote from: HVC on January 17, 2024, 02:53:53 PMAlso, he has no bio kids. Physician heal they self.
Now that's rude for Brizitte. :P
Quote from: Sheilbh on January 17, 2024, 03:04:13 PMQuote from: HVC on January 17, 2024, 03:03:04 PMCould be a bad translation.
"Pour permettre le réarmement démographique"? :lol:
Edit: But you could well be right it may not carry connotations it does here - but I'm not sure that's the case given the speech is being described (and spun) as a rejoinder to Le Pen.
Plan against infertility has no such connotation. As for
réarmement démographique, it makes me think more of the natality deficit vs Germany between World Wars than any dog whistling, or earliern say 1870, as said in the thread.
Quote from: Duque de Bragança on January 23, 2024, 11:51:38 AMQuote from: HVC on January 17, 2024, 02:53:53 PMAlso, he has no bio kids. Physician heal they self.
Now that's rude for Brizitte. :P
He's a French politician, he could knock up a mistress or two :D
Quote from: HVC on January 23, 2024, 11:57:20 AMQuote from: Duque de Bragança on January 23, 2024, 11:51:38 AMQuote from: HVC on January 17, 2024, 02:53:53 PMAlso, he has no bio kids. Physician heal they self.
Now that's rude for Brizitte. :P
He's a French politician, he could knock up a mistress or two :D
:secret:
Not his style.
Quote from: Duque de Bragança on January 23, 2024, 12:06:44 PMQuote from: HVC on January 23, 2024, 11:57:20 AMQuote from: Duque de Bragança on January 23, 2024, 11:51:38 AMQuote from: HVC on January 17, 2024, 02:53:53 PMAlso, he has no bio kids. Physician heal they self.
Now that's rude for Brizitte. :P
He's a French politician, he could knock up a mistress or two :D
:secret:
Not his style.
Does he wave the rainbow flag :unsure:
He claimed to be Jupiterian, so Ganymede would make sense. :P
This is good news.
https://amp.theguardian.com/world/2024/feb/04/parisians-vote-in-favour-of-tripling-parking-costs-for-suvs
Interesting to see one of those silly super low turnout referendums going the right way for once.
I wonder if the French greens learned from the scooter thing and we will see more of these.
Wont effect residents. Greens get to pat themselves on the back but nothing much done.
Quote from: HVC on February 05, 2024, 03:45:04 AMWont effect residents. Greens get to pat themselves on the back but nothing much done.
Its not exactly world changing but I don't see how it won't do anything?
It provides a disincentive to buying an SUV; and I do know running costs, taxes, etc... are issues for many in buying cars.
And even for those rich people who don't care.... well more money is being taken from them for the privilege. If they don't care then that's fine, make them pay as much as possible.
Quote from: HVC on February 05, 2024, 03:45:04 AMWont effect residents. Greens get to pat themselves on the back but nothing much done.
Yes, it will. Only tradesmen and very small SUVs will be exempted. It's true some huge, gas-guzzling sedans will be affected as well. :P
Those bad and cowardly drivers hiding in their ugly SUVs had it coming. :P :lol:
Can't remember hear them about the poor being disproportionately hit when diesels were banned, not just car parks rates being tripled.
The effect won't be as dramatic as getting rid of the rental e-scooters and their even more idiotic riders, but still a positive.
Quote from: Duque de Bragança on February 05, 2024, 10:54:26 AMQuote from: HVC on February 05, 2024, 03:45:04 AMWont effect residents. Greens get to pat themselves on the back but nothing much done.
Yes, it will. Only tradesmen and very small SUVs will be exempted. It's true some huge, gas-guzzling sedans will be affected as well. :P
Those bad and cowardly drivers hiding in their ugly SUVs had it coming. :P :lol:
Can't remember hear them about the poor being disproportionately hit when diesels were banned, not just car parks rates being tripled.
The effect won't be as dramatic as getting rid of the rental e-scooters and their even more idiotic riders, but still a positive.
Article said residents were exempt, unless I misread. If that's not the case I take it back.
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-13124701/imam-france-flag-deported-north-africa-immigration-laws.html
French resident surprised when he gets deported from France for making anti France and antisemitic remarks. Fighting to get get back to the country he hates and has lived in for almost 40 years. Dumbass. Hope he fails.
Quote from: HVC on February 05, 2024, 11:36:29 AMQuote from: Duque de Bragança on February 05, 2024, 10:54:26 AMQuote from: HVC on February 05, 2024, 03:45:04 AMWont effect residents. Greens get to pat themselves on the back but nothing much done.
Yes, it will. Only tradesmen and very small SUVs will be exempted. It's true some huge, gas-guzzling sedans will be affected as well. :P
Those bad and cowardly drivers hiding in their ugly SUVs had it coming. :P :lol:
Can't remember hear them about the poor being disproportionately hit when diesels were banned, not just car parks rates being tripled.
The effect won't be as dramatic as getting rid of the rental e-scooters and their even more idiotic riders, but still a positive.
Article said residents were exempt, unless I misread. If that's not the case I take it back.
To be fair, the Guardian article was not that accurate.
Quote from: HVC on February 26, 2024, 04:08:38 AMhttps://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-13124701/imam-france-flag-deported-north-africa-immigration-laws.html
French resident surprised when he gets deported from France for making anti France and antisemitic remarks. Fighting to get get back to the country he hates and has lived in for almost 40 years. Dumbass. Hope he fails.
For an actual immigrant non-citizen this seems fine to me.
Its when they pull this shit on people born and raised in the country who have (theoretical) dual nationality that it sits uneasy- the Begum mess.
Quote from: HVC on February 26, 2024, 04:08:38 AMhttps://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-13124701/imam-france-flag-deported-north-africa-immigration-laws.html
French resident surprised when he gets deported from France for making anti France and antisemitic remarks. Fighting to get get back to the country he hates and has lived in for almost 40 years. Dumbass. Hope he fails.
Interior minister Darmanin can't blame Liverpuldians this time, so maybe it will work. :P
There are talks that the French Senate might reject the final CETA accord.
By all measures, it's been positive for Europe. As predicted, fearmongers were wrong and were spouting crap. The accord was beneficial to Europe and Canada with increased exchange, trademarks were much more protected than before, beef imports to Europe were abot 3% of the maximum allowed... Still, the far left is opposed to making it permanent. Because. It's a trade agreement, therefore it's bad. It will destroy the fabric of society. And/or the space-time continuum. Hard to tell with them. No idea where the far right parties stand.
Link in French (https://www.lapresse.ca/international/2024-03-21/libre-echange/l-accord-canada-europe-sur-le-gril.php)
Rejected by the Sénat but the Assemblée Nationale has the upper hand, ultimately.
https://www.france24.com/en/europe/20240321-french-senate-rejects-eu-canada-free-trade-agreement (https://www.france24.com/en/europe/20240321-french-senate-rejects-eu-canada-free-trade-agreement)
Alliance droite-gauche de circonstance. :frog: Il n'y a pas que le RN et consorts (Zemmour ?) dans la vie. ;)
QuoteMacron and his centrist parliamentary allies managed to get the deal approved in the National Assembly lower house in 2019 by a slim margin, but backing by the Senate upper house – where they are in a clear minority – is needed for ratification.
After scenes of tension rarely seen in the upper house, senators voted 211 against and 44 for the treaty and then confirmed the rejection with a second vote.
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'Unfair competition': French farmers up in arms over EU free-trade agreements
There had been some expectations that opponents of the treaty would run out of time for the confirmation vote but they managed to squeeze it in by racing through the debate.
Although a setback for the government, which backs the treaty, the no-vote does not in itself nullify the agreement.
Under EU rules, the rejection is only effective if the government officially notifies the EU, which Macron is not expected to do.
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The government has not said how it will handle the situation, but one option is to take the treaty back to the National Assembly for a fresh debate and vote.
Seventeen of the EU's members have ratified the deal, with the process still ongoing in 10 countries.
France is the second country to have rejected ratification.
The first, Cyprus, has not notified the EU Commission of its no-vote and continues to apply the treaty pending a new vote.
I believe the Mercosul treaty is much more problematic and will be even more polemic.
PS: I like how le Figaro described it https://www.lefigaro.fr/politique/malgre-l-obstruction-macroniste-le-senat-rejette-la-ratification-par-la-france-de-l-accord-de-libre-echange-ceta-20240321 (https://www.lefigaro.fr/politique/malgre-l-obstruction-macroniste-le-senat-rejette-la-ratification-par-la-france-de-l-accord-de-libre-echange-ceta-20240321) :lol:
Somewhat biased. :P But then le Figaro never pretended to be apolitical.
Quote from: Duque de Bragança on March 21, 2024, 12:23:00 PMSomewhat biased. :P But then le Figaro never pretended to be apolitical.
C'était sans compter sur la malice du groupe communiste au Sénat, J'aime ce journal.
:sleep: :P
Quote«Nous ne pouvons plus continuer à importer d'ailleurs ce que nous produisons chez nous»
Tough talk from people who want us to be vegetarian and eat quinoa salad. Will it grow in Normandy?
There are fair exchanges. Different varieties are produced on each continent, even if it's beef or cheese, or ultimately cars or heat pumps.
As usual, the far left and the far right are stupid, and in the mid to long term, ecologists are putting all breaks on technological innovations since they'll be costlier to implement on each continent due to a lack of commercial exchange.
I do think the argument there is to rediscover and make more use of local varieties and to cut down a bit on use of foreign varieties.
There's certainly some validity here. We could definitely do with more diversity and resilience in our food supply chains - the unfolding bananapocolypse is a stand out example.
But it's a weird basis on which to oppose this.
Quote from: Josquius on March 22, 2024, 11:38:44 PM- the unfolding bananapocolypse
That is a myth (https://www.atlasobscura.com/articles/banana-fungus-not-banana-apocalypse) though.
Rediscovering local varieties does not mean shutting off the borders to all foreign markets. If you look at 3rd world countries that have high tariffs, this is actually hurting their economy, not helping them promote local industries.
Tunisia comes to mind, among others. They were never better because of high tariffs on finished products. On the contrary, they fared worst because they became dependant on only some suppliers and could never get enough of a competitive advantage to develop.
Quote from: viper37 on March 25, 2024, 04:09:40 PMQuote from: Josquius on March 22, 2024, 11:38:44 PM- the unfolding bananapocolypse
That is a myth (https://www.atlasobscura.com/articles/banana-fungus-not-banana-apocalypse) though.
Rediscovering local varieties does not mean shutting off the borders to all foreign markets. If you look at 3rd world countries that have high tariffs, this is actually hurting their economy, not helping them promote local industries.
Tunisia comes to mind, among others. They were never better because of high tariffs on finished products. On the contrary, they fared worst because they became dependant on only some suppliers and could never get enough of a competitive advantage to develop.
The article you posted didn't suggest that bananageddon is a myth but over-hyped and still a concern though.
Quote from: PJL on March 25, 2024, 04:25:45 PMQuote from: viper37 on March 25, 2024, 04:09:40 PMQuote from: Josquius on March 22, 2024, 11:38:44 PM- the unfolding bananapocolypse
That is a myth (https://www.atlasobscura.com/articles/banana-fungus-not-banana-apocalypse) though.
Rediscovering local varieties does not mean shutting off the borders to all foreign markets. If you look at 3rd world countries that have high tariffs, this is actually hurting their economy, not helping them promote local industries.
Tunisia comes to mind, among others. They were never better because of high tariffs on finished products. On the contrary, they fared worst because they became dependant on only some suppliers and could never get enough of a competitive advantage to develop.
The article you posted didn't suggest that bananageddon is a myth but over-hyped and still a concern though.
It's a concern, but bananas aren't going extinct. There is no apocalypse coming for this fruit.
And they aren't dying because of globalization, because we dropped tariffs on a specific variety of bananas. It's more complicated than that.
If they die well just puck another, like last time.
I don't like bananas, so I'm good either way
Quote from: viper37 on March 25, 2024, 04:09:40 PMQuote from: Josquius on March 22, 2024, 11:38:44 PM- the unfolding bananapocolypse
That is a myth (https://www.atlasobscura.com/articles/banana-fungus-not-banana-apocalypse) though.
Rediscovering local varieties does not mean shutting off the borders to all foreign markets. If you look at 3rd world countries that have high tariffs, this is actually hurting their economy, not helping them promote local industries.
Tunisia comes to mind, among others. They were never better because of high tariffs on finished products. On the contrary, they fared worst because they became dependant on only some suppliers and could never get enough of a competitive advantage to develop.
I'm pro trade. As said this is a weird place to push those concerns- which suggests to me they're just looking for an excuse.
Reading this article of yours... it says its a myth that bananas will go extinct- which sounds way over the top and not something I took from anything I've ever read.
As the article itself says its not a myth that we already changed banana varieties in the 50s for the same reason and there's no immediate replacement to hand if the same happens to the backup we're now relying on.
The point is less whether this current outbreak is the one to fuck up the banana industry, and more that it is so vulnerable in the first place and we have a hefty chunk of human food reliant on vulnerable monocultures.
Quote from: HVC on March 25, 2024, 07:36:37 PMI don't like bananas, so I'm good either way
:wacko:
How could you not like banana split! Banana antibiotics! Banana cakes! Banana... everything! :D
It's kiwis for me. They could all die and I'd never notice nor miss these awful things. :D
I had banana flavoured asthma medication as a kid. I liked it, but it tasted super strong (myth that the artificial banana flavour tastes like the original cultivare, not the current one).
But in any regards its the banana texture I don't like. I have to eat it so unripe that sometimes it numbs my mouth, on the odd occasion I eat one :D