Property prices thread

[HVC]

The demographic collapse or the dystopian hellscape?

Dystopian hellscape.

UK population is growing fine and record high net immigration - so very much not collapsing demography (I think Britain and France have the youngest cities in Europe)

As you inch towards Dystopian hellscape immigrations drops, so you'll get two for the price of one.

[Jacob]

Italy shows that the best way to have cheap housing is to be in a country during a demographic collapse (though I understand the Italians are working pretty hard to turn this around)

Which part are they trying to turn around? The lack of rocketing real estate prices or the lack of babies?

[Valmy]

Italy shows that the best way to have cheap housing is to be in a country during a demographic collapse (though I understand the Italians are working pretty hard to turn this around)

Which part are they trying to turn around? The lack of rocketing real estate prices or the lack of babies?

Lack of babies. The Italian government has been pretty desperate trying everything they can think of over the past quarter-century or so to get people to have babies. Back in 1995 it was 1.18 Babies per woman and now it is 1.47...still not good but progress. Ironically I bet the cost of living going down due to demographic collapse will help them a bit. When there are entire abandoned towns and buildings all over the country it makes finding housing for young families much easier.

[Jacob]

Lack of babies. The Italian government has been pretty desperate trying everything they can think of over the past quarter-century or so to get people to have babies. Back in 1995 it was 1.18 Babies per woman and now it is 1.47...still not good but progress.

Gotcha. Thanks

Ironically I bet the cost of living going down due to demographic collapse will help them a bit. When there are entire abandoned towns and buildings all over the country it makes finding housing for young families much easier.

Unfortunately I don't think it helps that much... young families also need a bunch of services (primarily child care, education, pediatric medicine) and those are often sparse in places where abandoned towns and buildings are common.

[Tamas]

Further 0.5% month on month price drop according to Nationwide puts us into negative year on year territory for the first time since the start of the pandemic bonanza in June 2020.

And as this chart from the Telegraph of all places show, we are following the 2008 trajectory very close so far:

[Josquius]

2008 would still put us ahead of pre covid iirc.

[Tamas]

2008 would still put us ahead of pre covid iirc.

Yes, so far from unlikely to repeat I think.

The interesting question though is that 2008 stopped and turned around because interest rates were slashed to zero and QE launched. That almost certainly will not be happening this time around (not for a couple of years anyway) so where will the bottom be this time around?

[HVC]

A bit more informative if the showed the 5-10 years before showing housing prices spiking.

[Tamas]

A bit more informative if the showed the 5-10 years before when housing prices spiked.

The point I think is to compare the rate of fall.

Currently the "bullish" narrative (and there's a lot of that in the UK, as people's livelihoods depend on the property ponzi scheme, and not just estate agents') is that "sure prices are falling a bit but 0.5 isn't a crash, stop scaremongering!"

And this chart servers to disprove that. Trajectory can still change I am sure (the new budget is coming in a couple of weeks I think, if the government wants to slash and burn everything to save the property market, that'll be the time to do it), but clearly right now is on one that is not different from what people commonly accept as a "crash".

[Josquius]

[The Brain]

Doom.

[Tamas]

[Tamas]

Interesting charts, if true, UK data of course:
https://twitter.com/alexgroundwater/status/1632495667049291779

[Valmy]

Damnit. Now I want to watch The Big Short.

[Tamas]

Damnit. Now I want to watch The Big Short.