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#21

Off the Record / Re: [Canada] Canadian Politics...

Last post by Barrister - April 25, 2024, 05:14:17 PM

Time will tell. Maybe. If Carney gets into that position.

My thoughts are:

• While Carney may be easy to attack, the operative question is whether he'll be easier to attack than Trudeau.
• If voters care about the economy, someone with significant economic credibility may be an asset; especially since Poilievre still comes across as mostly fluff and little substance on that topic.
• While the Conservative line of attack on Carney might be similar to the line of attack on Ignatieff, the key issue is how well Carney responds to it - and I don't think we have any real evidence there yet.
• There are differences both in the political moment and in the resumes. Ignatieff is an academic and public intellectual, Carney is from the world of finance. That has very different vibes, even if it happened outside of Canada. "Harvard Academic" and "Head of the Bank of England while it weathered a significant crisis" sound very different to my ears (not to mention "Head of the Bank of Canada while it weathered a significant crisis").
• Poilievre's main advantage in my eyes is Trudeau-fatigue, and his main strategy is vibes based attacks and "everything sucks, right? We'll do things differently!" Seems to me that the most useful Conservative line of attack would be attempts to link Carney with Trudeau and claim "more of the same", rather than "this guy is an outsider", which would play right into Carney's likely play of depicting himself as a hard reset for the current Liberal establishment.

That said... isn't it kind of academic at this point? Is there any real chance that Trudeau is going to step down?

Starting with the last point:

https://338canada.com/federal.htm

Current projections are 41% Conservative, 25% Liberal, 17% NDP.  Polls since the budget have not been helpful for the Liberals.  The Projections is 98% chance of a Conservative majority, <2% of a Conservative minority, <1% of a Liberal government.  So yes it's certainly possible Trudeau steps down - his father did after all (twice!).

As for your specific questions:

1. Would Carney be easier to attack than Trudeau?  Potentially so - he'd not only be tied to the past government, but also attacked personally.  Trudeau certainly has his record to defend, but Canadians have seemed to accept his personal foibles (drama teacher, blackface, etc).

2. the economy.  I think this is somewhat sad, but I see little evidence voters value a resume.  Voting has always been as much or more an emotional decision.

3. One of the tag lines against Ignatieff was "he didn't come back for you".  So I mean fair enough that we don't know how Carney would respond to that kind of criticism - but how do you respond to that kind of criticism?  Is there a good response to that kind of attack?

4. Difference in resumes.  As I mentioned, I don't think most people could really name what the Bank of Canada (or Bank of England) even does.  I think most voters would look at both Ignatieff and Carney and just see "egghead".

5. I absolutely agree that Poilievre's main appeal is just not being Trudeau - there's no Poilevre-mania sweeping the country.  But I think Mark Carney would have a really hard time portraying himself as a "hard reset" of Liberal government since he's hardly an outside to the corridors of power.


Fundamentally though - the problem with Mark Carney is he isn't a politician.  He hasn't done the rubber chicken circuit for years.  He hasn't shaken hands and kissed babies.  He's like the last two leaders - he's seen as a new face who can save the Liberal party.  And to be fair it worked one time - Justin Trudeau.  And it failed the other time - Ignatieff.  I just think a Mark Carney leadership would be much more like Ignatieff and a lot less like Trudeau.

#22

Off the Record / Re: Football (Soccer) Thread

Last post by Jacob - April 25, 2024, 05:01:37 PM

FunkMonk, you 100% should switch from supporting Arsenal to either Millwall or Crystal Palace

#23

Off the Record / Re: Football (Soccer) Thread

Last post by Admiral Yi - April 25, 2024, 05:00:26 PM

Tell me about your hooligan days Guppy.

#24

Off the Record / Re: Football (Soccer) Thread

Last post by Gups - April 25, 2024, 04:59:14 PM

That's kind of you. We're a big club for League 1 with a 27,000 capacity stadium. We're really a championship level club in terms of size. We've had a dreadful season but have new (American) owners and a decent new manager so hoping for a good season next year.

#25

Off the Record / Re: [Canada] Canadian Politics...

Last post by Barrister - April 25, 2024, 04:54:31 PM

What the hell, I'll engage against my better judgment.

I stopped reading after this.

If you want to have a civil discussion.  Don't start it by being uncivil.

Thanks for confirming my instincts.

#26

Off the Record / Re: Football (Soccer) Thread

Last post by FunkMonk - April 25, 2024, 04:53:51 PM

Charlton Athletic. I wouldn't bother if I were you

Thanks.

I see you are rivals with Millwall and Palace but of course neither are in League One now, so I'll just have to support whichever League One club is playing you each match week.

Yes it's petty and stupid but I feel that is what a football fan should do. Absolute hatred for no good reason.

#27

Off the Record / Re: Life on the Rails

Last post by Jacob - April 25, 2024, 04:53:43 PM

And it's official I am going to Knorr-Bremse.  They haven't picked out an official name for North American Operations.  I'm hoping for "From Soup to Brakes"; but it probably won't be.

 

#28

Off the Record / Re: Israel-Hamas War 2023

Last post by Admiral Yi - April 25, 2024, 04:25:46 PM

The issue isn't whether these people are cunts. They obviously are.
Its those pointing to them and going "See! See! Anyone who dares to speak against Israel is like this! Anti zionism is anti semitism!"

It's not either or.

And from my viewing of he media there are significant portions of the population that do not think the protestors yelling genocide slogans are cunts.  So it's not obvious to them.

#29

Off the Record / Re: Brexit and the waning days...

Last post by Tamas - April 25, 2024, 04:15:19 PM

Situation is so desperate developers are willing to build flats above and around listed ruins but that idea is of course also rejectex: https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2024/apr/25/ludicrous-plan-to-build-skyscraper-over-georgian-building-in-birmingham-rejected

#30

Gaming HQ / Re: New Paradox Tinto Game? EU...

Last post by Zanza - April 25, 2024, 04:11:51 PM

Thinking about it a bit more, it might make sense. Two big complaints about EU4 is trade and not much to do in peacetime. This might solve both.