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#11
Off the Record / Re: TV/Movies Megathread
Last post by HVC - June 30, 2025, 09:05:54 PMQuote from: Zoupa on June 30, 2025, 08:54:49 PMI couldn't get past the first 20 minutes of the first episode of season 1.
I think Anthony Bourdain was a cool dude, but this veneration of food and the chef culture is so cringe. It feels like a show for white hipsters.
I blame Michelin.
#12
Off the Record / Re: TV/Movies Megathread
Last post by Zoupa - June 30, 2025, 08:54:49 PMI couldn't get past the first 20 minutes of the first episode of season 1.
I think Anthony Bourdain was a cool dude, but this veneration of food and the chef culture is so cringe. It feels like a show for white hipsters.
I think Anthony Bourdain was a cool dude, but this veneration of food and the chef culture is so cringe. It feels like a show for white hipsters.
#13
Off the Record / Re: The China Thread
Last post by Sheilbh - June 30, 2025, 08:53:05 PMIt depends - there were absolutely railway booms and huge private companies (and fortunes made and lost) building railways. This was often nationalised or consolidated in the 20th century but an awful lot of the infrastructure was build by companies.
And a lot of the innovation of new models of trains were by private companies - or in the comparison with mass-produced affordable EVs the ICE equivalent was absolutely an American, private sector innovation (not devoid of authoritarian power). And capitalism is supposed to expand its productive capacity and I think in the West there's maybe been a bit less of that and a bit more rent-seeking.
I don't disagree on state playing an important role - but I think it is striking that the route the West's EV business model seems to have gone down is (via Tesla) quite high end, luxury adjacent cars. It's in China that BYD has launched 21st century Fordism. This is why I slightly bristle at the language of over-production or over capacity as if the rest of the world should be shackled by the industrial and business model our companies have chosen (plus I'm not sure on energy transition there is such a thing as over-production at this point).
And a lot of the innovation of new models of trains were by private companies - or in the comparison with mass-produced affordable EVs the ICE equivalent was absolutely an American, private sector innovation (not devoid of authoritarian power). And capitalism is supposed to expand its productive capacity and I think in the West there's maybe been a bit less of that and a bit more rent-seeking.
I don't disagree on state playing an important role - but I think it is striking that the route the West's EV business model seems to have gone down is (via Tesla) quite high end, luxury adjacent cars. It's in China that BYD has launched 21st century Fordism. This is why I slightly bristle at the language of over-production or over capacity as if the rest of the world should be shackled by the industrial and business model our companies have chosen (plus I'm not sure on energy transition there is such a thing as over-production at this point).
#14
Off the Record / Re: The China Thread
Last post by HVC - June 30, 2025, 08:34:42 PMQuote from: Sheilbh on June 30, 2025, 05:17:32 PMI think I mentioned it last year but I'd add the 1,000 kmh high-speed train being tested in China.
I think it says something of the way our form of capitalism has gone that it's not delivering the same level of growth in renewables, mass-produced, affordable EVs and 1,000 kmh trains - but fantastic market cap. It feels like it's focused primarily on producing financial gains not, you know, producing.
That assumes that capitalism built the infrastructure we have now, but it didn't . We didn't move to dirt horse cart paths to roads and interstates/province roads because companies invested, for example, we did so because governments did. Now a lot of that was for military reason, like in Germany and America where they wanted fast troop and Mechanized movement. Anyway, that's just to say the next big move in the west is not, and never was, going to be private investment. If you want efficient and effective change at that level you need government cash. And that's harder in some places than others. China probably has the easiest time making those changes. The cash to do it and the authoritarian power to implement it.
*edit* theres downside to the spectrum where China sits too, like an increased chance of papermache making up an unacceptably large percent of building material
the building quality of many of Chinas building during its housing boom is an easy example to point to. #15
Off the Record / Re: The China Thread
Last post by Sheilbh - June 30, 2025, 08:19:24 PMWell also China has a structural advantage. The Western world was built around fossil fuel energy and ICE vehicles for about 100 years. There is a significant legacy of that in China but also - especially in the last 10 years or so they have been able to leapfrog to an extent. A lot of the new development going on is for this grid and for the world of EVs. They don't have quite such a legacy as the Western world. Obviously at the same time, China also built over 80 new coal-fired power plants last year which was a ten year high.
I've said before but I think what's going on in China on energy transition is incredible and it's the most important story in climate in the world right now - the next most important is whether India can leapfrog again and so do what China's doing now without the massive fossil fuel intensive development in the last 40 years in China.
Having said all that I think renewables will still be growing at pace in the US for the same reason they are in the rest of the world - the economic case is there. It's the same reason why Texas last year overtook California as the state with the largest capacity of utility scale solar, wind is also growing at scale and Texas generates more renewable energy than California. I think in China and Texas the economics work for private capital to be involved and it is (relatively) easy to build things (ironically given the recent Mike Lee bill an easier factor for Texas is that land is in private hands, which is less true for a lot of the West) - the key difference with China is obviously you have state support behind it as the CCP consider this a priority. It's another example of why I think we underestimate Chinese leadership or just assume it'll fail at our peril. There's political leadership and some very effective, flexible, responsive technocrats and for all its flaws I think there's reason to think the regime can self-correct.
I've said before but I think what's going on in China on energy transition is incredible and it's the most important story in climate in the world right now - the next most important is whether India can leapfrog again and so do what China's doing now without the massive fossil fuel intensive development in the last 40 years in China.
Having said all that I think renewables will still be growing at pace in the US for the same reason they are in the rest of the world - the economic case is there. It's the same reason why Texas last year overtook California as the state with the largest capacity of utility scale solar, wind is also growing at scale and Texas generates more renewable energy than California. I think in China and Texas the economics work for private capital to be involved and it is (relatively) easy to build things (ironically given the recent Mike Lee bill an easier factor for Texas is that land is in private hands, which is less true for a lot of the West) - the key difference with China is obviously you have state support behind it as the CCP consider this a priority. It's another example of why I think we underestimate Chinese leadership or just assume it'll fail at our peril. There's political leadership and some very effective, flexible, responsive technocrats and for all its flaws I think there's reason to think the regime can self-correct.
#16
Off the Record / Re: Fitness 2025
Last post by crazy canuck - June 30, 2025, 07:47:53 PMOr it could be we are just getting old. That is my answer when I ask myself that question anyway 
#17
Off the Record / Re: The China Thread
Last post by crazy canuck - June 30, 2025, 07:47:12 PMQuote from: Zanza on June 30, 2025, 04:48:46 PMJust a remark: The five minute charging needs incredibly powerful chargers (1 MWh DC) and the appropriate grid, especially if there is a whole bunch of these chargers. I am a bit sceptical whether the necessary investments into the grid and power generation capability would pay off compared to charging slightly slower. Maybe that's where the exponential growth in photovoltaics in China comes in, but balancing such a grid must be a nightmare.
In addition to its solar power production, it is also has 31 nuclear reactors under construction (almost as much as the rest of the world combined).
China is fully engaged with creating the power grid of the future, while the Americans cling to the power sources of the past. The Biden administration made strides toward addressing the issue, but those initiatives have been reversed (but put it politely) at a time when the Americans should have been ramping up their efforts.
#18
Off the Record / Re: Brexit and the waning days...
Last post by Sheilbh - June 30, 2025, 07:09:30 PMBy the by I've mentioned before how I don't think Labour's thought through how their different policy goals interact. Just something to keep an eye on maybe.
Saw a story in the Guardian today on entry level jobs - graduate schemes, apprenticeships, internships and junior jobs with no degree requirement - falling by a third. The research was focused on the impact of AI. Similarly we've also had the CEO of BT saying AI could support deeper job cuts - particularly in junior roles. But the impact is being felt in traditional service roles - both customer service people for companies like BT but also, say, junior consultancy or analyst roles.
I think that is a big part of the story. Where government comes in is Labour have been pretty enthusiastic about AI (and I'm not sure they're wrong in that) - but at the same time they've increased the employer's payroll tax which particularly makes lower paid entry level roles more expensive. And I'm not sure it's been thought through how those two policies interact, similarly the increase of employer's NI, with increasing rents and rates having an impact on physical retail and hospitality.
I'd add where I think the government's approach to AI is wrong is their policy on copyright which is going to hurt the UK multi-billion creative industries. It might help some of the UK's AI industry which is, from everything I understand very good for Europe - but also likely to just get bought up by American big tech companies - and more likely it'll mainly help the big American and Chinese tech companies at the expense of actual work and production in this country.
Saw a story in the Guardian today on entry level jobs - graduate schemes, apprenticeships, internships and junior jobs with no degree requirement - falling by a third. The research was focused on the impact of AI. Similarly we've also had the CEO of BT saying AI could support deeper job cuts - particularly in junior roles. But the impact is being felt in traditional service roles - both customer service people for companies like BT but also, say, junior consultancy or analyst roles.
I think that is a big part of the story. Where government comes in is Labour have been pretty enthusiastic about AI (and I'm not sure they're wrong in that) - but at the same time they've increased the employer's payroll tax which particularly makes lower paid entry level roles more expensive. And I'm not sure it's been thought through how those two policies interact, similarly the increase of employer's NI, with increasing rents and rates having an impact on physical retail and hospitality.
I'd add where I think the government's approach to AI is wrong is their policy on copyright which is going to hurt the UK multi-billion creative industries. It might help some of the UK's AI industry which is, from everything I understand very good for Europe - but also likely to just get bought up by American big tech companies - and more likely it'll mainly help the big American and Chinese tech companies at the expense of actual work and production in this country.
#19
Off the Record / Re: The China Thread
Last post by Sheilbh - June 30, 2025, 05:17:32 PMI think I mentioned it last year but I'd add the 1,000 kmh high-speed train being tested in China.
I think it says something of the way our form of capitalism has gone that it's not delivering the same level of growth in renewables, mass-produced, affordable EVs and 1,000 kmh trains - but fantastic market cap. It feels like it's focused primarily on producing financial gains not, you know, producing.
I think it says something of the way our form of capitalism has gone that it's not delivering the same level of growth in renewables, mass-produced, affordable EVs and 1,000 kmh trains - but fantastic market cap. It feels like it's focused primarily on producing financial gains not, you know, producing.
#20
Off the Record / Re: No News Is Good News?
Last post by mongers - June 30, 2025, 05:11:40 PMWell today was the 1st time in a week that I'd seen, heard or read the news; can't say I've missed it.
Not having a daily dose of BS is refreshing, probably allow my own BS to 'grow' more vigorously?
Not having a daily dose of BS is refreshing, probably allow my own BS to 'grow' more vigorously?