Looks like some Iranians are taking to the streets against the regime: https://twitter.com/r_siavosh/status/1571929876420071428
Good luck.
After the various shitshows in the region I'm no longer investing emotional energy in Middle Eastern democracy.
The Iranians, or at least a vocal minority, hate the regime and seem to do this every few years. Without a crack in the security forces or the ruling class it won't go anywhere but the fact this keeps happening doesn't bode well for Iran's government over the long term.
And it certainly does not mean whatever replaces it will be good or even something marginally better.
It's certainly a tenuous situation in a tenuous region full of tenuous situations.
Day five: https://twitter.com/dpatrikarakos/status/1572282574780895232
The trigger, by the way, was the morality police beating a woman - Mahsa Amini (22) - for wearing "the wrong kind of hijab". She died shortly thereafter from her injuries.
Good for them. Would love to see something really come out of it.
But emotionally, I am with Yi.
I truly want to see this kind of thing suceed, but mostly it seems to fail, or if it suceeds, some other crazies take over anyway.
And then everyone blames the US regardless.
Makes it hard to invest much emotionally.
I know some folks aren't emotionally invested in Iran, but I'll post updates and bits of interest as (if) they appear.
Women cutting her hair in protest against Mahsa Amini's death, while the crowd chants "death to the dictator": https://twitter.com/GEsfandiari/status/1572268954684653571
I said I'm not invested in democracy in Iran. I'm invested in Iran because the chicks are hot.
Quote from: Admiral Yi on September 20, 2022, 05:56:42 PMI said I'm not invested in democracy in Iran. I'm invested in Iran because the chicks are hot.
I have no beef with how you manage your investment strategies. You do you :hug:
LOL. I am always happy to have someone like you Jake ping me with interesting news updates.
Quote from: Berkut on September 20, 2022, 06:10:18 PMLOL. I am always happy to have someone like you Jake ping me with interesting news updates.
:cheers:
Everyone I have met from Iran (and who isn't an emigré, who also hate it) hates the regime with passion. Obviously anecdotal, but here's that.
I also met once a guy that worked in the Spanish embassy in Tehran and had some pretty good anecdotes, like how he'd attend "clandestine" parties where women came in wearing full-body veil and would have their cocktail dresses under it.
My impression is that the typical Westerner is much more exposed to the Tehran middle and upper classes than to the typical Iranian. My impression is also that the Tehran middle and upper classes are not representative of Iran as a whole, any more than middle and upper class New Yorkers are representative of the US.
Quote from: The Brain on September 21, 2022, 05:04:15 AMMy impression is that the typical Westerner is much more exposed to the Tehran middle and upper classes than to the typical Iranian. My impression is also that the Tehran middle and upper classes are not representative of Iran as a whole, no more than middle and upper class New Yorkers are representative of the US.
Yeah you go to Budapest and talk to young middle class folks there, by and large they will be near-perfectly Westernised and firmly anti-Orban. The farther you go from Budapest though, the more of the Eastern dystopia you are going to encounter.
I imagine this must be even worse in a place like Iran.
Quote from: Tamas on September 21, 2022, 05:06:20 AMYeah you go to Budapest and talk to young middle class folks there, by and large they will be near-perfectly Westernised and firmly anti-Orban. The farther you go from Budapest though, the more of the Eastern dystopia you are going to encounter.
I imagine this must be even worse in a place like Iran.
Yeah, I've read a couple of travel-type books on Iran, and this is the way those authors described it. That's also the case in places like Turkey.
Quote from: grumbler on September 21, 2022, 08:25:27 AMQuote from: Tamas on September 21, 2022, 05:06:20 AMYeah you go to Budapest and talk to young middle class folks there, by and large they will be near-perfectly Westernised and firmly anti-Orban. The farther you go from Budapest though, the more of the Eastern dystopia you are going to encounter.
I imagine this must be even worse in a place like Iran.
Yeah, I've read a couple of travel-type books on Iran, and this is the way those authors described it. That's also the case in places like Turkey.
To be fair I am reasonably certain its the same in the UK as well. :D There's just not as big a difference (yet) between the progressive urbanised global culture the big cities are assimilated into and the more "rural" culture.
Not sure what to do about it apart from education and improving prosperity/living standards. That would be hard enough even if anyone was trying to do it.
Quote from: Tamas on September 21, 2022, 08:50:56 AMQuote from: grumbler on September 21, 2022, 08:25:27 AMQuote from: Tamas on September 21, 2022, 05:06:20 AMYeah you go to Budapest and talk to young middle class folks there, by and large they will be near-perfectly Westernised and firmly anti-Orban. The farther you go from Budapest though, the more of the Eastern dystopia you are going to encounter.
I imagine this must be even worse in a place like Iran.
Yeah, I've read a couple of travel-type books on Iran, and this is the way those authors described it. That's also the case in places like Turkey.
To be fair I am reasonably certain its the same in the UK as well. :D There's just not as big a difference (yet) between the progressive urbanised global culture the big cities are assimilated into and the more "rural" culture.
Not sure what to do about it apart from education and improving prosperity/living standards. That would be hard enough even if anyone was trying to do it.
Build more trains.
Seriously.
With better transport the country 'shrinks' and the opportunities of the cities spread to further flung people.
Transport is the key to everything.
Quote from: Tamas on September 21, 2022, 08:50:56 AMQuote from: grumbler on September 21, 2022, 08:25:27 AMQuote from: Tamas on September 21, 2022, 05:06:20 AMYeah you go to Budapest and talk to young middle class folks there, by and large they will be near-perfectly Westernised and firmly anti-Orban. The farther you go from Budapest though, the more of the Eastern dystopia you are going to encounter.
I imagine this must be even worse in a place like Iran.
Yeah, I've read a couple of travel-type books on Iran, and this is the way those authors described it. That's also the case in places like Turkey.
To be fair I am reasonably certain its the same in the UK as well. :D There's just not as big a difference (yet) between the progressive urbanised global culture the big cities are assimilated into and the more "rural" culture.
Not sure what to do about it apart from education and improving prosperity/living standards. That would be hard enough even if anyone was trying to do it.
No different in the USA.
Hell, even in just one state the difference is very marked. New York is blue as blue overall, but in reality everywhere outside the cities is Trumpistan it seems like.
For me it's not that I'm indifferent to the protesters, or the dream of a non-terrible Islamic world, it's more a recognized reality that in the vast majority of the Islamic countries these anti-traditionalist anti-regressive style protesters simply represent a small portion of the population in these countries. Kabul had genuinely embraced the West, the 70% of Afghanistan that live in rural communities never did. Iran, Iraq, Saudi Arabia and Pakistan largely continue to have this core problem which is a major inhibitor of any sort of enlightenment.
Turkey, Egypt, Indonesia and Malaysia all seem to have a bit more reasonable balance, albeit not without issues (you could say the same about America with Christian fundamentalists, frankly.) I don't really know what magic wand turns countries like Saudi / Iran et al. to be more reasonable like Turkey and Indonesia.
Quote from: Josquius on September 21, 2022, 09:12:39 AMBuild more trains.
Seriously.
With better transport the country 'shrinks' and the opportunities of the cities spread to further flung people.
Transport is the key to everything.
Infrastructure helps, but moving poor people from wretched rural villages to wretched urban slums does not make them more progressive. Education and communications are far more important, and infrastructure that allows the rural poor to at least be able to aspire to being rural middle class is much better than infrastructure that just lets them be poor in a place with many times more poor people (even if the prospects of sweatshop jobs are better in the city).
Quote from: grumbler on September 21, 2022, 09:58:49 AMQuote from: Josquius on September 21, 2022, 09:12:39 AMBuild more trains.
Seriously.
With better transport the country 'shrinks' and the opportunities of the cities spread to further flung people.
Transport is the key to everything.
Infrastructure helps, but moving poor people from wretched rural villages to wretched urban slums does not make them more progressive. Education and communications are far more important, and infrastructure that allows the rural poor to at least be able to aspire to being rural middle class is much better than infrastructure that just lets them be poor in a place with many times more poor people (even if the prospects of sweatshop jobs are better in the city).
Rural conservatism isn't really connected to wealth though.
Rural Alberta is surprisingly wealthy, as historically almost anyone could get a very well paying job doing oilfield work. It's not a great job as employment is not guaranteed and frequent layoffs (either seasonal, or due to the price of oil) plus being very hard work, but relatively easy for someone with no more than high school to earn six figures. But rural Alberta is still very conservative in it's voting patterns.
Quote from: Barrister on September 21, 2022, 10:04:25 AMRural conservatism isn't really connected to wealth though.
Rural Alberta is surprisingly wealthy, as historically almost anyone could get a very well paying job doing oilfield work. It's not a great job as employment is not guaranteed and frequent layoffs (either seasonal, or due to the price of oil) plus being very hard work, but relatively easy for someone with no more than high school to earn six figures. But rural Alberta is still very conservative in it's voting patterns.
The degree of rural conservatism probably
is tied to wealth, however. The conservatism of rural Alberta does not extend to condoning the killing of young women for having the wrong type of bourka (Iran), or honor killings (Pakistan), or dowry murders (India).
I tend to take the view that rural lifestyles, in general, insulate traditional cultural norms and practices from the more rapid pace of cultural change found in urban areas. I think this does tend to be true almost everywhere. The church and the nuclear and immediate extended family are bedrock institutions in rural America. For many urban Americans, it is common to move a timezone away from your family and uncommon to be a part of a church.
Does it though? The rural youth in my family all moved away to cities. The rural communities they left behind are graying with the conservatism that goes along with that, though temporary workers in oil and gas and for harvest time tend to add a little bump of 30 something men for short periods of time.
There is certainly an anxiety in those communities that their way of life is in danger, much less that there is this solid bedrock of family and church where the kids never move away. Plenty of youth crime and drug use as well. Those issues also add to its conservative mentality.
But this is about rural communities I have personal experience with so it is anecdotal and certainly doesn't extend outside of the United States. The rural conservatism in Pakistan I am sure is a dramatically different animal.
The United States is largely an urban country by most sociological definitions. I think we're actually over 70% urban if you count not just the very large metropolises, but their suburbs, and medium sized cities (50,000-100,000) and small cities (10,000 to 49k) and the truly small towns (say 5k-10k).
In many less urbanized countries, the true rural population is literally living in small villages (less than 500 people) often in family lines going back centuries.
The U.S. rural population also generally sprung forth from profit seekers and frontier types less than 200 years ago, so I think it is a relatively "unsettled" rural population in comparison to other places.
All that being said, I think many rural communities in America still have the predilections to conservatism that I mentioned, particularly cultural conservatism. The examples you give are examples of people who self-selected out of living rurally and moved away. There are plenty of people I am familiar with, who faced with economic negatives and other negatives of rural life, dug in and simply refused to move. Many have had less developed careers because of it, but some have ultimately done fine. Most tend to have groups of friends they have been close with their entire lives, and have families (and spouse families) that are all living in the same small area. These people have much fewer of the influences towards progressivism versus someone who grew up in a rural area and moved away for economic / social / educational opportunity.
Quote from: Jacob on September 20, 2022, 05:46:50 PMI know some folks aren't emotionally invested in Iran, but I'll post updates and bits of interest as (if) they appear.
Women cutting her hair in protest against Mahsa Amini's death, while the crowd chants "death to the dictator": https://twitter.com/GEsfandiari/status/1572268954684653571
Yeah I have noticed people are not exactly enraged around the world standing in front of the Iranian embassy shouting 'Justice for Mahsa'
I guess murdering women for slight wardrobe issues is just something people expect from that regime.
Iranian women: https://twitter.com/Joyce_Karam/status/1573128160115400707
Note that the 1979 revolution that brought the mullahs to power was triggered by urban demonstrations led by youth. It was not a rural religious reactionary revolt.
Burning statue of Khamenei in his own hometown: https://twitter.com/Joyce_Karam/status/1573372214833041409
I guess Iran is cruising for another crackdown. Here's hoping it fails.
They already cut the internet like last time, though stuff is still getting out somehow.
We'll see.
Reports of a number of deaths in Iran. Here's one of the regime's victims: https://twitter.com/Omid_M/status/1573145976147410944
Undercover morality police officer slaps a woman, but it doesn't work out that well for him:
https://twitter.com/FridaGhitis/status/1573098613089374208
Probably should have just taken his beating without trying the peperspray. can't imagine it made the situation better for him.
Quote from: Jacob on September 23, 2022, 01:21:08 PMReports of a number of deaths in Iran. Here's one of the regime's victims: https://twitter.com/Omid_M/status/1573145976147410944
Undercover morality police officer slaps a woman, but it doesn't work out that well for him:
https://twitter.com/FridaGhitis/status/1573098613089374208
as just protesting is not going to yield anything (the regime knows full well that the protesters will cave when sufficient violence is applied, and the regime is all to willing to apply that amount) I fear that the protesters will have to be willing to apply equal if not higher amounts of violence.
So instead of just giving that guy a beating and letting him get away, giving him a beating that puts him into an early grave. Over and over again. But that's a difficult thing to do.
And we all know where that leads...
So I don't think there's any good way out of that situation
(and moral support from western 'progressives' may not be that forthcoming since so many of those like the muslim votes too much (and those voters are usually reactionary)
Quote from: Crazy_Ivan80 on September 23, 2022, 02:37:50 PM(and moral support from western 'progressives' may not be that forthcoming since so many of those like the muslim votes too much (and those voters are usually reactionary)
WTF?
Any Iranian muslim voters are almost certainly in the west because they hate the Mullah's regime.
Any non-Iranian Muslim voters hate the Mullah's regime because they're Iranian, and Iran/Persia has long had a rivalry with most of the rest of the islamic world.
I think there's vanishingly little support in the west amongst either muslim or non-muslim voters for the current Iranian government.
The West generally seems slow on this story but I suspect it is the Iranians riot fatigue that Yi was expressing earlier. I don't think people are afraid that Muslims will be turning out to support the Mullahs.
Quote from: Valmy on September 23, 2022, 07:03:17 PMThe West generally seems slow on this story but I suspect it is the Iranians riot fatigue that Yi was expressing earlier. I don't think people are afraid that Muslims will be turning out to support the Mullahs.
To clarify, I wasn't talking about riot fatigue so much as disillusionment with the shitshows they come up with after the autocracies are toppled. Egypt, shitshow. Libya, shitshow. Iraq, shitshow. Tunisia is best in show and they're not that much to brag about.
Quote from: Barrister on September 23, 2022, 02:46:01 PMQuote from: Crazy_Ivan80 on September 23, 2022, 02:37:50 PM(and moral support from western 'progressives' may not be that forthcoming since so many of those like the muslim votes too much (and those voters are usually reactionary)
WTF?
Any Iranian muslim voters are almost certainly in the west because they hate the Mullah's regime.
Any non-Iranian Muslim voters hate the Mullah's regime because they're Iranian, and Iran/Persia has long had a rivalry with most of the rest of the islamic world.
I think there's vanishingly little support in the west amongst either muslim or non-muslim voters for the current Iranian government.
Agreed, also, as much as it may contradict the world view of some here, some of the most progressive people I have known are Muslims who are the children and grandchildren of the Iranians who left Iran during and after the revolution.
One of those was a young man who was a close friend of one of my sons. That young man was killed when the Iranians shot down a passenger jet in 2019. It is beyond ignorant to suggest the Iranian diaspora in this country is in any way supportive of the Iranian government.
Yes but, you see, Muslims are reactionary.
The European experience with muslims is a tad different.
And from observations in my own country I see that those few muslims (be they sunny or shia) who are truly progressive recieve a lot of flak from other muslims and people who claim to be progressive for attacking the faith.
Let's call it the Hirsi Ali experience, as that name is also known on the other side of the Atlantic.
So, while they may not like the mullahs, don't expect to much moral support for people trying to put religion in its place.
That support is only for people dealing with christianity.
I've always had hope for Iran. The population is okish educated, there is a somewhat functioning parliamentary democracy buried under all that religious crap and they are used to voting and political parties. If any middle eastern nation (apart from Israel that is) were to go to a functioning democracy my money would be on Iran.
But the chance of that is very small unfortunately. And if the mullahs fall Iran would probably immediately be torn apart by ethnic and religious violence.
But there is a chance, which is more than can be said about most other middle eastern states.
And let's not forget that the Iranians almost always vote progressive in those few elections where progressives are allowed to run.
Quote from: FunkMonk on September 23, 2022, 09:08:38 PMYes but, you see, Muslims are reactionary.
I mean they can be culturally, but usually not in support of the regimes they fled. There are some exceptions like the Turks often are Erdogan fans I understand.
Quote from: Valmy on September 24, 2022, 09:49:35 AMI mean they can be culturally, but usually not in support of the regimes they fled. There are some exceptions like the Turks often are Erdogan fans I understand.
I think Pakistanis in Britain might fit that category too.
I generally feel like Muslims (in this sense) are like Pilgrims. They might flee being persecuted, but that doesn't mean they become progressive. They just don't want to be persecuted themselves. That doesn't change them into becoming generally permissive.
I mean, it's religion. It's not like there isn't a well established history of how, generally, religious groups act under these circumstances.
Quote from: Berkut on September 24, 2022, 11:55:21 AMI generally feel like Muslims (in this sense) are like Pilgrims. They might flee being persecuted, but that doesn't mean they become progressive. They just don't want to be persecuted themselves. That doesn't change them into becoming generally permissive.
I mean, it's religion. It's not like there isn't a well established history of how, generally, religious groups act under these circumstances.
The ignorance of this statement is astounding.
I would've thought that an American, of all people, would be able to understand that everyone within a particular religious faith is not the same. They only need to look within their own country to realize that there is a significant range of ideology and outlook within the Christian faith.
Why an American would think they are somehow exceptional in that regard... oh wait. Right, Americans believe they are exceptional.
Using the term "generally" (used with consideration, and twice for that matter) is a concession to the fact that of course there are exceptions.
But I get that you can't pass up a chance to shit on Americans. Luckily I won't assume that is because you are Canadian - you are just an asshole.
It is not that rare to see East European emigrants being or even becoming very nationalistic, which is the same as religious extremism in a lot of ways. It must be how some cope with having a strange majority culture around them, I don't know.
But for sure it's not an exclusively Muslim immigrant thing.
Quote from: crazy canuck on September 24, 2022, 03:17:44 PMThe ignorance of this statement is astounding.
I would've thought that an American, of all people, would be able to understand that everyone within a particular religious faith is not the same. They only need to look within their own country to realize that there is a significant range of ideology and outlook within the Christian faith.
Why an American would think they are somehow exceptional in that regard... oh wait. Right, Americans believe they are exceptional.
Thanks. That's a near-classic
ad hom argument that I can use as a bad example in my classes.
Quote from: Crazy_Ivan80 on September 24, 2022, 01:41:12 AMThe European experience with muslims is a tad different.
Pretty much all Finnish Iranians are against the mullahs. They held a demonstration today protesting against the Iranian government.
Quote from: The Minsky Moment on September 23, 2022, 12:01:13 PMNote that the 1979 revolution that brought the mullahs to power was triggered by urban demonstrations led by youth. It was not a rural religious reactionary revolt.
And? You did not make a point here, but if I properly extrapolate, you seem to be suggesting the Iranian regime's support base is not rural religious conservatives. The genesis of the 1979 revolution being in college students in Tehran has little to do with who are the primary political powerbase of the hardliners. Many Revolutions, possibly even most of them, end up coopted by different forces than the parties that initially set them off. The Bolsheviks were not the progenitors of the Russian Revolution, and they arguably were not even the largest faction in the ensuing wars, they just happened to outmaneuver all the other groups eventually and seized complete control.
This is obviously exactly what happened in Iran, and any suggestion that rural Iranians were not a major power base of anti-Shah sentiment and pro-Khomeini influence would be gravely mistaken. The Shah's policies had actually caused intense rural resentment not primarily for cultural or religious reasons, but actually because of economic policies that devastated rural regions in the name of economic progress. Khomeini was massively popular among the rural grassroots in part because he appealed to traditional religious and cultural values of the rural people, but also because he was economically populist in many ways that addressed rural concerns.
When the National Front and the Tudeh, both of whom had advocated against regressive policies and ideas of the conservative clergy previously, decided to ally with Khomeini it was precisely because they were impressed with his populist appeal and they made a bad assumption that they could utilize Khomeini as a figurehead to rally a larger grassroots populist base, but would ultimately be able to direct the politics of a post-Shah Iran. This of course, did not happen. Khomeini showed he had a much larger base in the large national referendum after the Shah fled, and he utilized the Revolutionary Guard to suppress any opposition from his old Nationalist and Socialist allies, understanding adeptly that he needed a military power base outside the traditional Iranian military to secure his rule.
The system they set up actually has genuine elections and lots of deliberative assembly things, but the Ayatollah ultimately can prune people out of election lists and has direct control of the military, so he can wield absolute power to protect the Islamist rule, while giving the people some participation in government as a safety valve. It is not a terrible system if your goal is to run an Islamist government and try to head off some of the problems other such governments have had.
In a way it's almost like a reverse Saudi Arabia. Iran has a very theocratic and Islamist ruling clerical class, that knows that several large population centers simply don't buy into their brand of Islam, so they create veneers of democracy and try to promote economic development to keep everyone happy. In KSA you have a largely secularist and libertine royal family who use veneers of Islamism to keep the very conservative Islamist population content to continue letting the House of Saud run things. Although both KSA and Iran are majority conservative Islamist, Iran is much less so I think in raw numbers.
Not to ruin the "Europe is a pro-theocracy bastion" narrative, but:
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-london-63029612
QuoteProtesters have clashed with police officers during demonstrations outside the Iranian embassy in London.
The Met Police said members of the crowd threw missiles at officers and breached police lines in Princes Gate, Knightsbridge, on Sunday afternoon.
It comes as protests in Iran spread across the world, sparked by the death of Mahsa Amini in custody after being detained by Iranian morality police.
At least five officers were seriously injured.
Twelve people have been arrested on suspicion of violent disorder offences.
Dozens of protesters in London chanted "death to the Islamic Republic" and were seen waving Iran's former national flag from before 1979.
London mayor Sadiq Khan described the scenes as "completely unacceptable".
"The selfish minority who attempted to hijack a peaceful protest must be brought to justice," he said.
Footage posted online from Sunday's protest showed altercations breaking out among those in the crowd.
One clip showed two officers wrestling a campaigner - who appeared to have broken through the police line - to the ground.
Quote from: OttoVonBismarck on September 25, 2022, 11:29:11 AMAnd? You did not make a point here, but if I properly extrapolate, you seem to be suggesting the Iranian regime's support base is not rural religious conservatives.
My point is:
1. The key support for the Iranian revolution came from the cities. It was in the cities that increasing unemployment was felt the worst, where worsening conditions in the rapidly growing slums fueled radicalization, that the disparities between expectations and actual life standards were most keenly felt. It was in the cities that the tape recordings of Khomeini and Shariati so important for mobilizing support were widely disseminated and consumed. And it was the uprisings in the cities that rendered the Shah's position untenable.
2. Rural conservatism did not translate into uniform support for the revolution, perhaps not surprisingly given the initial alliance between Khomeini and the political Left opposition. Farmers and herders tended to be religious, but their loyalty was often to localized Shi'ite practices, not Khomeinism.
3. That the revolution had an urban base is not surprising; most modern revolutions do.
4. Iran only became more urbanized after 1979; it is a heavily urbanized country, about 70-30. Iran is not Afghanistan. And the rural minority is far from a pro regime monolithic bloc. It includes marginalized ethnic minorities, and substantial numbers of people living in difficult economic conditions despite the regime's lip service to pursuing anti-poverty efforts in the countryside.
5. The bottom line is that rural support for the regime, such as it may be, would not likely be sufficient to bolster the regime against a unified and determined urban-based revolutionary uprising.
There is no widespread urban base of opposition to the Islamic Republic, there is widespread opposition among a small minority of urban Iranians, mostly those with higher educational attainment.
Quote from: Tamas on September 26, 2022, 05:16:32 AMNot to ruin the "Europe is a pro-theocracy bastion" narrative, but:
Sounds like some of those MEK crazies may have gotten involved.
Quote from: OttoVonBismarck on September 26, 2022, 08:26:44 AMThere is no widespread urban base of opposition to the Islamic Republic, there is widespread opposition among a small minority of urban Iranians, mostly those with higher educational attainment.
That's probably true; I'm not denying it. I'm merely stating that if such a movement arose, the regime could not count on rural sympathies to survive it.
Quote from: The Minsky Moment on September 26, 2022, 08:36:09 AMQuote from: OttoVonBismarck on September 26, 2022, 08:26:44 AMThere is no widespread urban base of opposition to the Islamic Republic, there is widespread opposition among a small minority of urban Iranians, mostly those with higher educational attainment.
That's probably true; I'm not denying it. I'm merely stating that if such a movement arose, the regime could not count on rural sympathies to survive it.
I am not necessarily denying what Otto is true but I definitely doubt he knows. I don't claim to know the minds of the average Iranians either urban or rural or whether or not they love the Islamic Republic unlike Otto. However, cutting off the internet and bringing in forced to violently suppress a protest and then preparing to do it again just a short time later don't strike me as the actions of a government with overwhelming positive support by the population. I also rarely see tiny groups of elite educated people doing this kind of street action multiple times a decade with the real threat of being gunned down, elites usually are too chicken shit to do stuff like that.
I am not saying that the regime is on the brink of collapse or that revolution is coming, but I have my doubt that the regime enjoys the kind of widespread urban and rural support being claimed here. If it did then all we are seeing would make no sense. Currently the government is promising violent crackdowns "without leniency" and yet the protests continue. If this is some small group of educated urban elites then they have bigger balls than any small group of educated urban elites I have ever seen.
The thing is there are 80 million Iranians, if this was anything but a small percentage of urban liberal types the regime would simply be toppled. The military can't do anything if it is literally outnumbered by millions and millions of people ready to bring the regime down. This is no different than many other such popular revolts--it's getting a lot of attention but it is far easier to pay attention to thousands in the streets and ignore the 79 million who simply are going to stay at home.
Remember when the Hong Kong democracy stuff started and their protests seemed wild? But most people were like our former poster now PRC apparatchik monoriu, it wasn't in his personal economic interest to give a shit, so they stayed home and let the government clean up the thousands of angry people.
We know this is what is going on because the regime isn't toppled. When there is actually a big majority of people ready to topple a regime, you have at the very least a major civil war, and often a toppled regime. This typically will not occur if most people are still relatively comfortable in their mundane personal lives, you generally need widespread problems affecting everyone--not just in this case women who don't dress in traditional Islamic ways.
Another big thing is when popular revolt is truly widespread it invariably affects large portions of the military as well, which we see no evidence of in Iran.
Quote from: OttoVonBismarck on September 26, 2022, 10:23:36 AMThe thing is there are 80 million Iranians, if this was anything but a small percentage of urban liberal types the regime would simply be toppled. The military can't do anything if it is literally outnumbered by millions and millions of people ready to bring the regime down. This is no different than many other such popular revolts--it's getting a lot of attention but it is far easier to pay attention to thousands in the streets and ignore the 79 million who simply are going to stay at home.
This is very reductive reasoning OVB. The protestors must be a "small percentage of urban liberal types" because they haven't overthrown the government.
The thing is there are lots of deeply unpopular, autocratic governments that last for years - up until the time they don't. Think the eastern europe, Egypt, Ukraine...
The fact a government still exists says little about how popular it is at the time.
I'm not predicting the fall of the mullahs in Iran. But I'm not NOT predicting their fall either.
My response: show me.
Quote from: OttoVonBismarck on September 26, 2022, 10:38:59 AMMy response: show me.
"I'll believe it when I see it" is on the one hand a very useful world view, but sometimes a completely useless one.
So it can be very easy to get caught up in the daily news every day, to see every little story as the harbinger of some greater trend, when in fact what you're seeing is the just the daily static of life.
But "I'll believe it when I see it" also means you won't be able to predict anything, ever.
I don't know enough about Iran to make firm predictions. The mullahs have been in power for over 40 year so they certainly have some level of stability. But the country has been economically stagnant for years and has repeatedly had massive demonstrations against the regime. It does not strike me as a very stable and secure government.
Will this be the series of protests that finally overthrows the government? Probably not - the regime has survived in the past. But to conclude that because the regime has survived similar protests in the past it is actually comparatively popular? That seems a grave misreading of the situation.
Quote from: Tamas on September 26, 2022, 05:16:32 AMNot to ruin the "Europe is a pro-theocracy bastion" narrative, but:
Good to see. I mean not the violence, of course. But that there are people in the West taking notice of the protest and its causes.
The regime's pseudo-democratic elements give it staying power that a purely authoritarian dictatorship might lack. Factional politics have to be negotiated but the regime could respond by easing enforcement of the hijab, making a show of cracking down on corruption, maybe even loosening the bit somewhat on reformist oriented politicians. And by carrying out repressions on the more radical opponents.
Quote from: The Minsky Moment on September 26, 2022, 08:36:09 AMQuote from: OttoVonBismarck on September 26, 2022, 08:26:44 AMThere is no widespread urban base of opposition to the Islamic Republic, there is widespread opposition among a small minority of urban Iranians, mostly those with higher educational attainment.
That's probably true; I'm not denying it. I'm merely stating that if such a movement arose, the regime could not count on rural sympathies to survive it.
Read a thing from the Danish ambassador in Tehran saying that from their observation the protests have not seemed to engender wider support. While they appear intense in social media they typically number in the 100s not 1000s.
Quote from: Berkut on September 24, 2022, 11:55:21 AMI generally feel like Muslims (in this sense) are like Pilgrims. They might flee being persecuted, but that doesn't mean they become progressive. They just don't want to be persecuted themselves. That doesn't change them into becoming generally permissive.
I mean, it's religion. It's not like there isn't a well established history of how, generally, religious groups act under these circumstances.
Progressive may have different meaning depending on were you come from (Edit: also "when").
An American progressive would be economically left leaning, hold anti-abortion views and be critical of State mixing with religion, like forbidding gay marriage/civil unions.
A muslim progressive raised in a strict sharia country would be very different. He might not be keen on abortion. He would certainly view homosexuality as a perversion. He would be a devout muslim. But he would not believe in stoning a woman for adultery, he would believe that women should have the right to study, he might even be against capital punishment for most offense. He would still be enraged at seeing a depiction of Muhammad kissing another man and see it as an offense to his faith, but he would not stab anyone for it.
By comparison, I would see Pilgrims as being religious radicals who were persecuted in their own country for being too radical. Not because they allowed their women to read or treated them like human being instead of cattle. Very different situation here.
https://www.bbc.com/news/world-middle-east-63058096
So...apparently the Iranian regime has decided to blame the Kurds for all of this.
QuoteThirteen killed in Iraq as Iran attacks Kurdish groups blamed for protests
Thirteen people have been killed in Iraq's Kurdistan Region, officials say, as Iran launched missiles and armed drones at what it said were bases of Iranian Kurdish opposition groups.
A pregnant woman was reportedly among those who died in the strikes.
Iran's Islamic Revolution Guard Corps said it hit "separatist terrorists" who had supported recent "riots".
Anti-government protests have swept across Iran since the death in custody of a Kurdish woman there 12 days ago.
Mahsa Amini, 22, from the north-western city of Saqez, was visiting in Tehran when she was detained by morality police for allegedly violating the strict law requiring women to cover their hair with a hijab, or headscarf.
The police said Ms Amini collapsed at a detention centre after suffering sudden heart failure. But her family have dismissed that and alleged that she was beaten by officers. She died in hospital following three days in a coma.
Kurdish human rights group Hengaw said on Monday that 18 Kurdish protesters had been killed by security forces, 898 others injured and more than 1,000 arrested as Iranian authorities sought to suppress the dissent in the region and elsewhere.
Another group, Iran Human Rights, has put the nationwide toll among protesters at 76, while state media have reported that 41 people have died, including security personnel and pro-government militiamen.
Iranian authorities have blamed the unrest on "rioters" linked to "foreign enemies" and accused armed Iranian Kurdish opposition groups operating in neighbouring Iraq of infiltrating Kurdish areas of Iran to "sow insecurity".
On Wednesday, the Islamic Revolution Guard Corps said it had struck the main bases of Komala, the Democratic Party of Iranian Kurdistan (PDKI) and the Kurdistan Freedom Party (PAK), with "precision-guided missiles and assault drones" for the third time in four days.
The strikes would continue until the threat was "decisively" removed, the force warned.
Komala confirmed that 10 drones landed the Zargwez area, PAK said it headquarters in Sherawa was hit, and the PDKI said its bases and headquarters in Koy Sanjaq were struck.
"Attacks on opposition groups through the Islamic Republic of Iran's missiles, under any pretext, is an incorrect stance which promotes a misleading interpretation of the course of events," the Kurdistan Regional Government said in a statement.
Iraq's federal government also condemned the strikes, while the UN mission in the country warned Iran that "rocket diplomacy is a reckless act with devastating consequences".
The US said Iran "cannot deflect blame from its internal problems and the legitimate grievances of its population with attacks across its borders".
So I guess if the going gets tough, blame the ethnic minorities.
One of the largest demonstrations I have seen in this city is going on now. People are lined up on both sides of the main road going through the downtown core - from the entrance to Stanley Park to past the art gallery. For people not familiar with those landmarks it is several kilometres.
Quote from: crazy canuck on October 01, 2022, 05:43:57 PMOne of the largest demonstrations I have seen in this city is going on now. People are lined up on both sides of the main road going through the downtown core - from the entrance to Stanley Park to past the art gallery. For people not familiar with those landmarks it is several kilometres.
There was a huge demonstration in Richmond Hill (a suburb of Toronto that has a heavy Persian population). Some 50K.
This issue has serious traction here. Probably because there is a large expat community, who are unusually united in support.
Quote from: Valmy on September 29, 2022, 01:03:26 AMhttps://www.bbc.com/news/world-middle-east-63058096
So...apparently the Iranian regime has decided to blame the Kurds for all of this.
So I guess if the going gets tough, blame the ethnic minorities.
They are kind of right here though right? These protests were centred in Kurdistan. Though they spread quite a bit beyond that now it seems.
I mean it started because of the murder of a Kurdish woman, so I get why they would want to portray themselves as the victims of a Kurdish plot.
Protests spread to petro-workers: https://twitter.com/KhosroKalbasi/status/1579411375449083905
Also saw a thing where hackers put the names of murdered women on national TV.
Footage of Evin prison on fire:
https://twitter.com/FridaGhitis/status/1581349672752656386?s=20&t=RCy4K0cNf9_HSNch2DXxKA
Looks like it might be getting stormed?
I'm seeing on Twitter that the IRGC put out a statement that some sort of fight broke out in the sewing center inside the prison, which resulted in a fire. Locals are apparently clashing with security services in an attempt to get into the prison, to save prisoners from the fire. Some Iranian activists are claiming that the fire was intentionally set by the regime to kill the dissidents inside, and that they are mass executing the prisoners via gunfire. Obviously impossible to say what is going on in the moment with the general information fog in Iran.
Effigies of Iranian mullahs have appeared hanging off bridges in various Iranian cities
(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FfmplEGWAAE9hck?format=jpg&name=medium)
Mahabad Governor's Office on fire: https://twitter.com/i/status/1585554851634757634
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0W4jrYL_1OE
Knocking off turbans.
That's pretty satsifying to watch.
Iranian oil workers walk out: https://twitter.com/omid9/status/1592540008635928577
Also, as I'm sure you've heard, the Iranian parliament passed a resolution that the death penalty should be applied aggressively to protesters - more than 15,000 have been arrested.
There's also been more reports of security forces / revolutionary guard opening fire at crowds of protestors.
I am sure that murdering a bunch of sons/daughters, sisters/brothers, etc will endear the regime to the Iranian people.
The Iranian regime lacks the equivalent of the Cossacks. The people they are going to ask to commit murder have far more in common with the victims than with those giving the orders.
Quote from: grumbler on November 16, 2022, 10:35:30 AMI am sure that murdering a bunch of sons/daughters, sisters/brothers, etc will endear the regime to the Iranian people.
The Iranian regime lacks the equivalent of the Cossacks. The people they are going to ask to commit murder have far more in common with the victims than with those giving the orders.
That's only partially through I'd wager. As I understand the Revolutionary Guard is quite a wide-spread organisation and its members can't hope to keep their privileges and living standards (or even their lives) if this regime falls.
Quote from: Tamas on November 16, 2022, 01:45:38 PMThat's only partially through I'd wager. As I understand the Revolutionary Guard is quite a wide-spread organisation and its members can't hope to keep their privileges and living standards (or even their lives) if this regime falls.
The IRGC is far too large to be closely watched for ideology, and far too corrupt to inspire much loyalty on religious grounds. There's probably a core of folks too deeply into the misdeeds of the IRGC to hope to survive the restoration of Iranian civilization, but the lowly spearcarriers can't all be counted on to murder their own people, as the IRGC commander himself noted.
Apparently protestors have burned down the house (now a museum) of Ayatollah Khomeini: https://twitter.com/dpatrikarakos/status/1593529893907832832
EDIT: wrong thread
Iranians have started covering up security cameras with... sanitary pads: https://twitter.com/KhosroKalbasi/status/1592976806566821888 :lol:
QuoteTop Iran footballer arrested at club for 'spreading propaganda against the state'
Detention of Voria Ghafouri, who is not part of World Cup squad, seen as warning to players in Qatar
Iranian security forces on Thursday arrested one of the country's most famous footballers, accusing him of spreading propaganda against the Islamic republic and seeking to undermine the national World Cup team.
Voria Ghafouri, a former member of the national football team and once a captain of the Tehran club Esteghlal, has been outspoken in his defence of Iranian Kurds, telling the government on social media to stop killing Kurdish people. He has previously been detained for criticising the former Iranian foreign minister Javad Zarif.
Iran are due to play Wales on Friday. The Iranian team has already been embroiled in controversy after failing to sing the national anthem before its game against England, and Ghafouri's arrest is likely to be seen as a warning to the players not to repeat their protests.
He was detained after a training session with his club, Foolad Khuzestan, on charges of having "tarnished the reputation of the national team and spread propaganda against the state", the Fars new agency said.
Other agencies said he was being charged with "insulting and intending to destroy the national football team and speaking against the regime".
Ministers in recent days have accused Ghafouri of being a Kurdish separatist, but he replied that he would give his life for Iran. Earlier this year, the supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, said: "Some people, who benefit from the country's peace and security, enjoying their jobs and their favourite sports, bite the hand that feeds them," a reference many thought was to Ghafouri.
The footballer, 35, was a member of Iran's 2018 World Cup squad, but was surprisingly not named in the final lineup for this year's World Cup in Qatar.
Originally from the Kurdish-populated city of Sanandaj in western Iran, Ghafouri had posted a photo on Instagram of himself in traditional Kurdish dress in the mountains of Kurdistan, but is a cult hero beyond Iran's north-west. Sanandaj endured some of the most violent crackdowns in the protests that followed the death in custody of Mahsa Amini, a 22-year-old Iranian Kurd, and Ghafouri had visited some of those injured in the protests in Mahabad.
In 2019, he distributed blue jerseys in honour of Sahar Khodayari, a woman who self-immolated after being sentenced to prison for attempting to watch an Esteghlal match at Azadi stadium. After another incident of violence against female football fans in 2021, Ghafouri wrote on Instagram: "As a soccer player, I've indeed become humiliated when I play in an era when our mothers and sisters are prohibited from entering stadiums."
Many fans suggested his career at Esteghlal, a championship winning team, was cut short in June as punishment for speaking out. Others argued that in his mid-30s, Ghafouri was too old for the Iranian top flight.
He recently tweeted: "Stop killing Kurdish people!!! Kurds are Iran itself ... Killing Kurds is equal to killing Iran. If you are indifferent to the killing of people, you are not an Iranian and you are not even a human being ... All tribes are from Iran. Do not kill people!!!"
So whats the end game here?
The positive one, not the likely one.
How could this possibly end well?
It's seems like the government is going full on Nika revolt on the protesters, tens of thousands in jail and security forces shooting wildly.
My guess is this is not going to end well...
Quote from: Threviel on November 25, 2022, 05:14:06 AMIt's seems like the government is going full on Nika revolt on the protesters, tens of thousands in jail and security forces shooting wildly.
My guess is this is not going to end well...
Yeah. It was pretty obvious that the only way out of this for the Iranian Government was a successful crackdown. We'll see how it goes for them.
Quote from: Valmy on November 28, 2022, 01:45:19 PMQuote from: Threviel on November 25, 2022, 05:14:06 AMIt's seems like the government is going full on Nika revolt on the protesters, tens of thousands in jail and security forces shooting wildly.
My guess is this is not going to end well...
Yeah. It was pretty obvious that the only way out of this for the Iranian Government was a successful crackdown. We'll see how it goes for them.
Unless a large part of the army decides to join in the rebellion, I don't see much success in this one either.
I've just read that the morality police will be disbanded and that the Iranian judiciary is trying to distance themselves from it.
Quote from: The Larch on December 04, 2022, 12:44:53 PMI've just read that the morality police will be disbanded and that the Iranian judiciary is trying to distance themselves from it.
saw that too, don't think it'll douse the fires
Could be a sign that the regime is showing some cracks under pressure. Hopefully more and more.
I'm very surprised it seems to be heading towards compromise.
After China did the same too.
The world seems to be broken. Albeit for the better for once.
The Iranian state TV appears to be denying those reports.
Quote from: Tamas on December 04, 2022, 03:09:00 PMThe Iranian state TV appears to be denying those reports.
That would an odd thing to do if they were trying to quell the protests by taking a soft line.
I didn't think they would be able to take a soft line without freaking out their core supporters. Kind of interesting either if they did or if a rumor started that they did for some reason.
Ehh, I'm not seeing them denying it. State TV are the ones who broke the story that it was disbanded, including comments from the Iranian Attorney General. Then a regime lawmaker also echoed those comments. Then a few local (but still government ran) news outlets in Iran appear to be saying that this was "misinterpreted." Something announced on national TV by the Attorney General I think would need a pretty unambiguous public reversal, otherwise it seems more like just a lack of coordination inside the government than anything.
Shades of East germany announcing immediate free travel?
The morality police may be disbanded, but that does not mean the sanctions against immorality are.
Iran, MP Jalali: "The bank accounts of unveiled women will be blocked" (https://www.agenzianova.com/en/news/iran-deputy-jalali-the-bank-accounts-of-unveiled-women-will-be-blocked/)