Recent posts

#1

Off the Record / Re: The Off Topic Topic

Last post by Valmy - May 10, 2024, 10:19:33 PM

White flight has evolved. Instead of moving, whites just split off and create a new city

New City created in Louisiana

Seceding to preserve white supremacy? Talk about honoring your heritage.

#2

Off the Record / Re: Israel-Hamas War 2023

Last post by Valmy - May 10, 2024, 10:10:18 PM

My first introduction to Jews as a thing that actually exists in the modern west and anti - semitism was South Park.
That I'm aware of I can't remember ever meeting a Jewish person before then. They just existed as some vague thing in the history books from Ww2.
I really don't think my experience in this is too unusual.
And I grew up not too far from one of the biggest heredi communities around.

I honestly had no idea hating Jews was still a thing until the Internet. And then I realized it was fucking everywhere. But that was kind of sexism and racism in general.

Me in the 1990s: Is racism and sexism really that big a deal anymore?

Me in the 2000s: Holy shit everybody is such a racist and sexist. What are we doing?

#3

Off the Record / Re: Israel-Hamas War 2023

Last post by Admiral Yi - May 10, 2024, 09:56:05 PM

There's also "Yes and" and "Did you also consider this angle".

I'm not accusing you of anything here. Just speaking about attitudes to historic misdeeds in the world.

"Just speaking" does not have any discernable meaning.  If I call you a moron and say I'm "just speaking" about your intelligence it doesn't alter the rest of my content in any way.

If you "just speak" something in juxtaposition to a comment I make, it can be agreement, disagreement, qualification/partial agreement (as you mentioned), one of the bad faith arguments I mentioned, or a non sequitur.  So please tell me what you think the relevance of your comments was to the comments I had made, which you then quoted.  What is the logical connection between the two.

#4

Off the Record / Re: The China Thread

Last post by HVC - May 10, 2024, 09:21:11 PM

 

#5

Off the Record / Re: The Off Topic Topic

Last post by HVC - May 10, 2024, 09:13:34 PM

Interesting. Romance languages never know what to do with the W or V. Rules keep changing. As an example, veni vidi vici sounds way less cool with the "proper" pronounciation.

#6

Off the Record / Re: The Off Topic Topic

Last post by HVC - May 10, 2024, 09:11:55 PM

White flight has evolved. Instead of moving, whites just split off and create a new city

New City created in Louisiana

#7

Off the Record / Re: Brexit and the waning days...

Last post by Sheilbh - May 10, 2024, 06:24:44 PM

Yeah, Sheilbh - I think you (or maybe the Tory think-tankers you're talking about) are overstating what Poilievre is offering the younger generation on housing. It's mostly "housing sucks and that's Trudeau's fault, amirite" and "insofar as there's a housing crisis, how about we solve it by applying vague right wing generalities. Also woke Trudeau sucks and the cost of living crisis is his fault; it'll be totally different if you vote for us!"

For that to work for the UK Tories it'll require a Labour government in power for a while while that crisis continues unabated.

Yeah I think that's fair. But I'd say that's inevitable whenever lessons from politics in one country are then "learned from" in another - the context for its reception is always going to be different. But also politics isn't (and has never been) about policy and I think what Poilievre suggested was political vindication for that group of nerds.

These are on the centre-right libertarian-ish think tankers who have fantastically detailed policy ideas about how to fix planning and build more housing but also that fixing planning helps deal with the biggest supply side constraint on the British economy (and I'm persuaded on some points and dubious on others). Their policy argument is wildly involved in the Town and Country Planning Act 1947 and the Green Belt etc. But what Poilievre showed wasn't a policy solution (he's not in power) but that you could make that argument from the right, it wouldn't necessarily blow up your existing base and it could attract new voters. That actually it could be a winning political issue that creates the conditions that allow you to implement those policies. They already had this agenda but it helps convince Tory world that maybe there's a political agenda there - and I think it's also partly why, in the last year or so, Starmer has gone in so much on planning as a big issue. The policy agenda is there (and obviously will be worlds away from Canada's), what Poilievre shows is that there may be votes in making the argument and maybe how to do it.

And having said all of that - this government with an 80 seat majority tried planning reform, had to back down and have no made things worse because of a backbench revolt. I think it is a very challenging issue that will cost a lot of political capital. So whether Labour can succeed on it probably depends on how big a majority they have - and who Starmer is and if he believes it's key to his growth goal. A lot comes to which reading of Starmer is right - because if the naive and mugged by reality reading is correct then he might drop planning reform at the first touch of opposition, if the ruthless reading is right then he might do it. But I think there is a possibility that Labour fails.

Also having said all of that and on the other hand (and slightly separate from the Poilievre/planning thing) I also think there's a real possibility Starmer might be lucky. The Tories have raised taxes to record levels, the IMF projection is not outstanding for the UK but is solid (and not far off Starmer's goal of fastest growth in the G7) - and it wouldn't take much in the global economy for that to look better (I think of the BofE Chief Economist noting there were no surprises in the data this quarter for the first time since covid):

I think there's a non-trivial possibility that some of the growth and spending constraints that currently dominate might be easier than we currently expect which makes everything a little bit easier in politics.

Edit: Obviously I'd add that Labour could fail catastrophically. It could be a one term government. And because of that risk, I would rather the Tory faction inspired by Poilievre and banging on about housing and planning are there to take advantage, not the one wondering if they should try to merge with Farage-ism.  I might not agree with them but I think they're dealing with real issues and wanting to fix them. As I say I get that from a Canadian perspective he's primarily seen through the populism lens - that's not how he's been received on the right here because, bluntly, we don't need a vision from overseas of what right wing populism looks like. We have it and that faction is already pretty developed.

I'm just hoping voters are smart enough to recognise this and judge the next government (assuming it's non tory) accordingly

I don't think voters are particularly kind in their judgements of current governments. But I also think they have pretty long memories. I think I remember Cecil Parkinson or some other Tory grandee, saying in the 2005 election that fundamentally voters hadn't forgotten Black Wednesday and I think in a large part in 2017 and 19 voters hadn't forgotten the financial crisis. I think voters will remember the cost of living crisis (broadly no more the Tories fault than Canada's is Trudeau's), and the perception of what went on with Truss (I think she was a disaster but there's a lot going on there). I think the same goes for the Winter of Discontent and other examples to.

I don't think they judge the government kindly but I think (unless they really fuck it up) they don't move on from the crisis of the opposition's last period of government quickly.

#8

Off the Record / Re: The China Thread

Last post by Sheilbh - May 10, 2024, 06:13:12 PM

See, China always lies   

But these dogs have been observed by Western canine nerds looking at satellite images

#9

Off the Record / Re: The Off Topic Topic

Last post by Jacob - May 10, 2024, 05:03:05 PM

Interesting

#10

Off the Record / Re: The Off Topic Topic

Last post by Savonarola - May 10, 2024, 02:51:40 PM

I learned that words in the romance languages that begin with Gu are most likely Germanic in origin and are derived from words that began with a W in the original language.  For instance whatever is Visigothic or Frankish for "War" become "Guerra" and "Guerre."  English will sometimes have both the Germanic as well as the Romance form; but the words will have somewhat different meanings:  Warden/Guardian, Ward/Guard, Warranty/Guarantee.