2024 US Presidential Elections Megathread

[OttoVonBismarck]

There is being absent minded and then there is regularly mistaking one person with a completely different one. If he has always been unable to remember the difference between Kohl and Merkel, that makes him less fit for office compared to a demented 81 years old, not more.

Again, I don't know what to say--mistakes like this are not even uncommon among American Presidents. The electorate doesn't appear to find them disqualifying. I don't think they are a credible sign of dementia given I know people in their 30s who make mistakes like this.

There are actual tests for dementia, that AFAIK don't quiz people on things like "who is the current President of France."

I remember arguing against all the claims people made against W. Bush on similar things back in the 2000s, and I also tended to view most instances of Trump confusing names and such with a grain of salt.

I wonder some times how many people who act like this is such a big deal regularly speak in front of audiences? It isn't anything like having a conversation at a dinner table, and by the way, most of you here if we transcribed your dinner table conversations and picked out every mental error in your speech it is highly likely there would be quite a few. I think there is just a lack of recognition of how common flubs in speech are, and how uncritically a typical person's speech is received.

Being in a job like the Presidency it is a polar opposite, every word is recorded and every word is scrutinized.

[Grey Fox]

How are people preparing themselves for Trump's second term? At this point I am taking it as a given and if he loses it will be a pleasant surprise.

By expecting the worse. Our western rules base world order is ending. Free elections are on their last legs.

The USA will be a white supremacist theocracy within 25 years.

[OttoVonBismarck]

I haven't had a chance to read every line of it, but the special counsel report that came out involving the Biden classified documents probe seems shockingly unprofessional and partisan. It leads by finding that Biden "did willfully" mishandle classified information, and claims his "forgetfulness" is one reason he chose not to prosecute. But buried 200 pages into the report it admits there was not actually any evidence that Biden willfully mishandled the documents.

It reads like a partisan special counsel wrote the intro and then the actual attorneys who worked the case wrote the rest.

[crazy canuck]

Fair point.  The urgency may be greater than if Biden was considered a strong candidate.

I do hope the Dems have a plan B prepared because I think the age stuff is a real risk.

Totally get Garbon's point which is right objectively, but I think politically it is cutting through and like all the best attacks is fundamentally factual: Biden is old.

The whole situation is unbelievable. I think we all assumed, and was reinforced by Biden himself, that he would be a one term President and he would be a bridge to some younger politician in 2024. Instead we are taking an enormous risk for no particular reason with enormous stakes. Biden isn't some irreplaceable unique figure.

Problem is Kamala Harris hasn't exactly captured the nation's attention.

I think we can award you with the understatement of the year award right now.   

[grumbler]

Well that was obvious when he picked her. I thought he had promised his black supporters a black female VP so he delivered. But I didn't think at the time that he was also locking in his successor.

I disagree that it was obvious that she'd fail to catch on.  She was a strong candidate in the primaries, and had checked off almost all the boxes.  I don't think she chose a very good staff for the VP position, though, and never broke through into the limelight.

Mayor Pete is my choice for heir apparent.  He's really impressed me as Transportation Secretary, which is a hard job from which to impress.

[Jacob]

Is Kamela Harris locked in as Biden's running mate?

[The Minsky Moment]

The Special Counsel's commentary was grossly unprofessional and a cheap shot, but it doesn't change that it happened.  And the press conference was a disaster.

It doesn't really matter anymore what Biden's mental condition is anymore because people have made up their mind about him and nothing he does now will change it.  On the contrary, further public appearances will reinforce it.  That may not be fair but it's the reality.

[Tonitrus]

Is Kamela Harris locked in as Biden's running mate?

No...I don't believe so...but it'd be a huge political kerfuffle to jettison her.

FDR could easily get away with it.

[Sophie Scholl]

I'd be happy to see President Katie Porter, Raphael Warnock, or Gretchen Whitmer.

[OttoVonBismarck]

There is frankly political malpractice that more attacks are not made on Trump's age and confusion, and journalistic malpractice that the media largely minimizes Trump's struggles with coherence. In recent memory, Trump has:

Has said either that Barack Obama is president or that he had run against Obama for the presidency at least seven times, according to Forbes's Sara Dorn.

Mixed up Nikki Haley and Nancy Pelosi, claiming Haley was in charge of security at the US Capitol on January 6, 2021.

Identified a picture of E. Jean Carroll, who accused him of rape, as a picture of his ex-wife, Marla Maples.

Has anyone found evidence Biden can't recognize if he is looking at a picture of his wife? Or who he ran against in 2020?

The Dems need to rail on all of this, and the media need to actually meaningfully cover Trump's verbal and coherence problems if they are going to judge similar issues for Biden as being constantly newsworthy.

[Tamas]

There is frankly political malpractice that more attacks are not made on Trump's age and confusion, and journalistic malpractice that the media largely minimizes Trump's struggles with coherence. In recent memory, Trump has:

Has said either that Barack Obama is president or that he had run against Obama for the presidency at least seven times, according to Forbes's Sara Dorn.

Mixed up Nikki Haley and Nancy Pelosi, claiming Haley was in charge of security at the US Capitol on January 6, 2021.

Identified a picture of E. Jean Carroll, who accused him of rape, as a picture of his ex-wife, Marla Maples.

Has anyone found evidence Biden can't recognize if he is looking at a picture of his wife? Or who he ran against in 2020?

The Dems need to rail on all of this, and the media need to actually meaningfully cover Trump's verbal and coherence problems if they are going to judge similar issues for Biden as being constantly newsworthy.

On this we totally agree. There is one person in front-row politics today who makes Biden appear coherent and in good mental state and that's Trump. He should be thorn apart over this.

[Josquius]

When you've a choice of two, whataboutism does become valid.

[Sheilbh]

I disagree that it was obvious that she'd fail to catch on.  She was a strong candidate in the primaries, and had checked off almost all the boxes.  I don't think she chose a very good staff for the VP position, though, and never broke through into the limelight.

Mayor Pete is my choice for heir apparent.  He's really impressed me as Transportation Secretary, which is a hard job from which to impress.

Yeah I agree. I was surprised how poorly Harris did in the primaries in terms of her performance, but I thought she was a strong VP candidate and practically if you're the VP of a President in his late 70s you are an heir (possibly quite literally).

I don't know why but I don't think she's built any presence up in that role. In fairness to her part of that may be that Biden's White House is not letting her build a presence. I imagine if you're the staff of a late 70s leader and age is an issue politically, the last thing you'd want is for a young, active VP to be looking like they're the one really running the government. But I'm not sure if that's it or not.

It doesn't really matter anymore what Biden's mental condition is anymore because people have made up their mind about him and nothing he does now will change it.  On the contrary, further public appearances will reinforce it.  That may not be fair but it's the reality.

Yeah and this is part of the problem with it as an attack Biden's vulnerable on - it is factual and it is something everyone can form a view on. There's no need for expert commentary or "he said"/"she said" style reporting; people can just watch the news.

I think objectively it's unfair for all the reasons OvB says - but also I think Biden's been a pretty impressive President and when I've seen him speak (except in those 5 second clips of gaffes) I think he's fine. But on the practical level, I don't really know how Biden or his team would go about fighting the complaint that he's too old. I think getting him speaking and working crowds is probably the best strategy (and I think it's stuff that Biden is good at) - project an image of energy and being on top of things (which may even reflect reality). But I'm not sure if that'd work or if it's enough. As you say I think people have largely made up their minds on this.

[HVC]

But on the practical level, I don't really know how Biden or his team would go about fighting the complaint that he's too old. I think getting him speaking and working crowds is probably the best strategy (and I think it's stuff that Biden is good at) - project an image of energy and being on top of things (which may even reflect reality). But I'm not sure if that'd work or if it's enough.

[Sheilbh]

I increasingly view that meme as a personal attack