Quote from: The Minsky Moment on Today at 08:43:23 AMI agree with those points; I said basically the same above.I think that's fair.
I still think it's fair to consider the efficacy of the strikes. There is a real concern on the other side - if the strikes spook the markets enough to cause world prices to spike, and that helps a Trump victory, the damage done to Ukraine's prospect is far, FAR greater than any impact on Russian military effectiveness.
Quote from: The Minsky Moment on Today at 10:37:01 AMIt may be that my take on this issue is influenced by the fact that I recently read Robert Pape's Bombing to Win, the upshot of which is that most strategic bombing campaign aimed at civilian or war industry failed, even given much greater resources than Ukraine has. Even with total air supremacy and massive bomber fleets it is extremely hard to cause enduring shortages of key materials in a well-resourced continental sized country.
The best that can be said about these attacks is that the cost ratio is probably pretty favorable if only cheap drones are being used. It's also probably good for Ukrainian morale and I concede that is important.
Quote from: The Minsky Moment on Today at 10:18:27 AMQuote from: Zoupa on Today at 09:33:00 AMInstead they've switched to make the war as costly as possible to russia. The Black Sea fleet is decimated, Belgorod is getting bombed daily, your refineries are on fire: leave Ukraine and it stops. Either that or general collapse/civil war in russia.
The Black Sea fleet attacks have had strategic value because it's taken away the fleet as a weapon and allowed Ukraine some freedom of action economically.
More generally, however, Ukraine simply doesn't have the means to execute a punishment strategy anywhere near sufficient for that to be effective, assuming that such a strategy had any hope of success even if means were far greater. Putin has sent hundreds of thousands of young men to their death and murdered the leading opposition leader and Russians meekly accepted his recoronation. Thinking that adding some kopecks to gasoline prices is going to move the needle to wishful thinking.
Quote from: The Minsky Moment on Today at 10:18:27 AMQuote from: Zoupa on Today at 09:33:00 AMInstead they've switched to make the war as costly as possible to russia. The Black Sea fleet is decimated, Belgorod is getting bombed daily, your refineries are on fire: leave Ukraine and it stops. Either that or general collapse/civil war in russia.
The Black Sea fleet attacks have had strategic value because it's taken away the fleet as a weapon and allowed Ukraine some freedom of action economically.
More generally, however, Ukraine simply doesn't have the means to execute a punishment strategy anywhere near sufficient for that to be effective, assuming that such a strategy had any hope of success even if means were far greater. Putin has sent hundreds of thousands of young men to their death and murdered the leading opposition leader and Russians meekly accepted his recoronation. Thinking that adding some kopecks to gasoline prices is going to move the needle to wishful thinking.
Quote from: viper37 on March 27, 2024, 07:02:04 PMok, I do, occasionally watch bad movies. But at least, I don't do it on purpose.
Quote from: The Brain on Today at 09:42:20 AMFriends like these...
Quote from: Zoupa on Today at 09:33:00 AMInstead they've switched to make the war as costly as possible to russia. The Black Sea fleet is decimated, Belgorod is getting bombed daily, your refineries are on fire: leave Ukraine and it stops. Either that or general collapse/civil war in russia.
Quote from: Sophie Scholl on March 27, 2024, 08:23:51 PMWe'll see if it disappoints me yet again.
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