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#11
Off the Record / Re: Russo-Ukrainian War 2014-2...
Last post by Sheilbh - Today at 11:10:32 AM
Quote from: The Minsky Moment on Today at 08:43:23 AMI agree with those points; I said basically the same above.

I still think it's fair to consider the efficacy of the strikes.  There is a real concern on the other side - if the strikes spook the markets enough to cause world prices to spike, and that helps a Trump victory, the damage done to Ukraine's prospect is far, FAR greater than any impact on Russian military effectiveness.
I think that's fair.

My issue is whether that view or guidance is from the United States government or Joe Biden's re-election campaign and whether assessing the risk should be left to Ukraine (a country in an existential fight for survival) or the US government. Ultimately the Ukrainians may have decided that there's probably not much they can do to influence the US election they, like the rest of us, are doomed by whatever American voters decide and fairly fatalist about that - but conducting these types of attacks or not for the next 10 months is something they can do.

Let's take the worst case - they stop and for ten months are not able to attack Russia's fossil fuel war effort and then Trump wins.

I fully get that it's complicated because there's an argument the US is an existential political fight of its own (Edit: And similarly it is complicated because I think that Joe Biden's re-election campaign is very important for the purposes of the US government as currently understood).

And, as I say, I think that shifts if you provide the means for Ukraine to pursue an alternative strategy.
#12
Off the Record / Re: Russo-Ukrainian War 2014-2...
Last post by Josquius - Today at 10:58:14 AM
Russia has started hitting Kharkiv again. Some fears they might be planning an offensive from the north again.
I have to say looking at a map it does seem odd they're not doing this. It would really stretch Ukraine and help the offensives in the east

Quote from: The Minsky Moment on Today at 10:37:01 AMIt may be that my take on this issue is influenced by the fact that I recently read Robert Pape's Bombing to Win, the upshot of which is that most strategic bombing campaign aimed at civilian or war industry failed, even given much greater resources than Ukraine has.  Even with total air supremacy and massive bomber fleets it is extremely hard to cause enduring shortages of key materials in a well-resourced continental sized country. 

The best that can be said about these attacks is that the cost ratio is probably pretty favorable if only cheap drones are being used. It's also probably good for Ukrainian morale and I concede that is important.

Kind of a difference though between strategic bombing of simple industries with many dozens of sites and poor accuracy vs precision bombing of very particular complex parts of a limited number of sites.
Potentially unlimited chances to hit too with cheap unmanned drones vs ww2 bombers.
#13
Off the Record / Re: Russo-Ukrainian War 2014-2...
Last post by Zoupa - Today at 10:46:02 AM
Quote from: The Minsky Moment on Today at 10:18:27 AM
Quote from: Zoupa on Today at 09:33:00 AMInstead they've switched to make the war as costly as possible to russia. The Black Sea fleet is decimated, Belgorod is getting bombed daily, your refineries are on fire: leave Ukraine and it stops. Either that or general collapse/civil war in russia.


The Black Sea fleet attacks have had strategic value because it's taken away the fleet as a weapon and allowed Ukraine some freedom of action economically.

More generally, however, Ukraine simply doesn't have the means to execute a punishment strategy anywhere near sufficient for that to be effective, assuming that such a strategy had any hope of success even if means were far greater.  Putin has sent hundreds of thousands of young men to their death and murdered the leading opposition leader and Russians meekly accepted his recoronation.  Thinking that adding some kopecks to gasoline prices is going to move the needle to wishful thinking.


Death of a thousand cuts. It's all Ukraine can do since we don't care.
#14
It may be that my take on this issue is influenced by the fact that I recently read Robert Pape's Bombing to Win, the upshot of which is that most strategic bombing campaign aimed at civilian or war industry failed, even given much greater resources than Ukraine has.  Even with total air supremacy and massive bomber fleets it is extremely hard to cause enduring shortages of key materials in a well-resourced continental sized country. 

The best that can be said about these attacks is that the cost ratio is probably pretty favorable if only cheap drones are being used. It's also probably good for Ukrainian morale and I concede that is important.
#15
Off the Record / Re: Russo-Ukrainian War 2014-2...
Last post by Barrister - Today at 10:30:06 AM
Quote from: The Minsky Moment on Today at 10:18:27 AM
Quote from: Zoupa on Today at 09:33:00 AMInstead they've switched to make the war as costly as possible to russia. The Black Sea fleet is decimated, Belgorod is getting bombed daily, your refineries are on fire: leave Ukraine and it stops. Either that or general collapse/civil war in russia.


The Black Sea fleet attacks have had strategic value because it's taken away the fleet as a weapon and allowed Ukraine some freedom of action economically.

More generally, however, Ukraine simply doesn't have the means to execute a punishment strategy anywhere near sufficient for that to be effective, assuming that such a strategy had any hope of success even if means were far greater.  Putin has sent hundreds of thousands of young men to their death and murdered the leading opposition leader and Russians meekly accepted his recoronation.  Thinking that adding some kopecks to gasoline prices is going to move the needle to wishful thinking.


I read an analysis that the attacks on oil infrastructure aren't really meant to deprive Russia of oil - but rather to deprive Russia of the feedstocks for explosives (which are derived and refined from oil).
#16
Off the Record / Re: TV/Movies Megathread
Last post by Eddie Teach - Today at 10:29:08 AM
Quote from: viper37 on March 27, 2024, 07:02:04 PMok, I do, occasionally watch bad movies.  But at least, I don't do it on purpose.  :yuk:

Only bad television?
#17
Quote from: The Brain on Today at 09:42:20 AMFriends like these...

Ukraine has become another chew toy in the Trumpist culture wars.  I'm hopeful Biden is returned and the Dems flip the house, and large scale aid flows back in. But if it goes the other way, Europe is on its own.  American cannot be counted on.  I don't like it, but that's the way it is now.
#18
Quote from: Zoupa on Today at 09:33:00 AMInstead they've switched to make the war as costly as possible to russia. The Black Sea fleet is decimated, Belgorod is getting bombed daily, your refineries are on fire: leave Ukraine and it stops. Either that or general collapse/civil war in russia.


The Black Sea fleet attacks have had strategic value because it's taken away the fleet as a weapon and allowed Ukraine some freedom of action economically.

More generally, however, Ukraine simply doesn't have the means to execute a punishment strategy anywhere near sufficient for that to be effective, assuming that such a strategy had any hope of success even if means were far greater.  Putin has sent hundreds of thousands of young men to their death and murdered the leading opposition leader and Russians meekly accepted his recoronation.  Thinking that adding some kopecks to gasoline prices is going to move the needle to wishful thinking.
#19
Off the Record / Re: Fitness 2023
Last post by crazy canuck - Today at 09:55:38 AM
Woot back to 305 on the bench
#20
Off the Record / Re: TV/Movies Megathread
Last post by viper37 - Today at 09:43:17 AM
Quote from: Sophie Scholl on March 27, 2024, 08:23:51 PMWe'll see if it disappoints me yet again.  :lol: