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#71

Off the Record / Re: [Canada] Canadian Politics...

Last post by crazy canuck - April 26, 2024, 11:47:21 AM

What the hell, I'll engage against my better judgment.

I stopped reading after this.

If you want to have a civil discussion.  Don't start it by being uncivil.

Thanks for confirming my instincts.

When your instincts change and you want to have a discussion that does not start by insulting me, let me know.

Time will tell. Maybe. If Carney gets into that position.

My thoughts are:

• While Carney may be easy to attack, the operative question is whether he'll be easier to attack than Trudeau.
• If voters care about the economy, someone with significant economic credibility may be an asset; especially since Poilievre still comes across as mostly fluff and little substance on that topic.
• While the Conservative line of attack on Carney might be similar to the line of attack on Ignatieff, the key issue is how well Carney responds to it - and I don't think we have any real evidence there yet.
• There are differences both in the political moment and in the resumes. Ignatieff is an academic and public intellectual, Carney is from the world of finance. That has very different vibes, even if it happened outside of Canada. "Harvard Academic" and "Head of the Bank of England while it weathered a significant crisis" sound very different to my ears (not to mention "Head of the Bank of Canada while it weathered a significant crisis").
• Poilievre's main advantage in my eyes is Trudeau-fatigue, and his main strategy is vibes based attacks and "everything sucks, right? We'll do things differently!" Seems to me that the most useful Conservative line of attack would be attempts to link Carney with Trudeau and claim "more of the same", rather than "this guy is an outsider", which would play right into Carney's likely play of depicting himself as a hard reset for the current Liberal establishment.

That said... isn't it kind of academic at this point? Is there any real chance that Trudeau is going to step down?

I don't understand how Carney could be easy to attack.  A person would have to have complete amnesia about the time he was a popular figure in Canada.  That might be the case for some, but for the vast majority of the electorate he already has favourable name recognition.

Your second point is why Carney would be hard to attack.  He has credibility when it comes to understanding economic matters.  And compared to PP, who once said that bitcoin was the way to go, there will be no competition.

Your fourth point is correct, but I would put more emphasis on the "not to mention" the time he was in Canada.

And I agree that PP's main attraction now is that he looks good compared to Trudeau.  A very low bar.  But compared to a person of substance like Carney, not so much.  The competition will be between someone who has been a politician since university - and still shows that level of maturity vs. someone who has done substantial things prior to politics.

That said... isn't it kind of academic at this point? Is there any real chance that Trudeau is going to step down?

Not a chance.

He will be pushed out or he will lose the election.

According to Liberal insiders, what they're aiming at is going into the election with Trudeau, let him lose, then replace him with their favorite candidate. 

Could be Carney, could be someone else too.

I agree that is the most likely scenario.  The wildcard is that I doubt Carney would want to wait till the following election given his age and stage.  It would be much better for him if Trudeau stepped down now.  And we have already discussed the grumbling within the party that many want that to happen.

#72

Off the Record / Re: Football (Soccer) Thread

Last post by Gups - April 26, 2024, 11:45:56 AM

Tell me about your hooligan days Guppy.

Skinny, brown adolescents weren't that sought after amongst the hollies and Charlton were very minor league in terms of violence any way. Any would be hoolies in my part of London gravitated to Millwall who were amongst the most feared group in England.

I got chased a few times and/or dodged projectiles at Villa, Millwall, Wolves, Leeds but nothing very serious.

#73

Off the Record / Re: Football (Soccer) Thread

Last post by Sheilbh - April 26, 2024, 11:45:40 AM

Curious, I seem to recall the flat you almost bought but didn't was also near there.

Yeah that place was basically next door. I'm a little further away now.

But I sort of knew the area I was looking in for a place and that didn't really change too much - although better connected now.

I suspect you're actually a secret Millwall fan. Why else would anyone claim to support the blue Liverpool team? :p

#74

Off the Record / Re: What does a TRUMP presiden...

Last post by Syt - April 26, 2024, 11:43:49 AM

Saw poll numbers today that public trust in the Supreme Court dropped 20 points within 4 years.

#75

Off the Record / Re: Football (Soccer) Thread

Last post by Gups - April 26, 2024, 11:41:19 AM

The only time I ever went to Wembley my soul was destroyed by Charlton winning

Which one? 1998 or 2019?

Have to say Sunderland fans were very gracious in defeat both times and Charlton fans have a real soft spot for them as a result.

#76

Off the Record / Re: Brexit and the waning days...

Last post by Sheilbh - April 26, 2024, 11:10:23 AM

Isn't that pretty much the definition of protest? Most protests, at least?

No, not at all. I think that describes almot zero protests.

More importantly, in this case, the very point of the Jewish guy's counter-protest was to test whether the crowd can tolerate a Jewish person in their ranks. Of course he and his fellows would had filmed it if something happened, what's the point of being abused/beaten up to prove a point if you can't prove it?

Right but this is the disingenuousness.

If you want to do a counter-protest you don't get to march through the protest you're protesting. The police should ensure that protests and counter-protests can happen - but also that there won't be any public order issues which normally means keeping them apart.

I also don't think that's what he was doing. Josh Glancy who writes for the Times and the Jewish Chronicle went to one of these marches at one point and walked through it with kippah and a Star of David chain on his neck again walking against the direction of the crowd. He was able to do that, no-one in the police tried to stop him, and he wrote an article about it - and basically he felt uncomfortable at points but never unsafe.

There is a difference between that and repeatedly walking through a march (as the police officer had observed him doing) to film content to prove a point. You have a right to protest and to counter-protest, you don't have a right to walk through a protest screaming "DEBATE ME" to generate an edited clip for your socials.

I basically agree with the Community Security Trust statement on this. But I don't think that the right to protest doesn't have a time limit and as long as thousands and thousands turn up they should be able to protest (I think this is partly why, say Just Stop Oil annoys me - because they want to cause the disruption of a mass movement, except it's just seven friends from Harrow) - but the protesters should be making sure there's a firewall against anti-semitism and I don't think they are, but that's on them and shouldn't be an issue for the law:

#77

Off the Record / Re: Podcasts you like

Last post by FunkMonk - April 26, 2024, 11:08:58 AM

Really enjoyed the History of Bad ideas on the PPF pod. Loved it when the geneticist said, "Mate, I'm not going near that!" on the outro music 

#78

Off the Record / Re: Israel-Hamas War 2023

Last post by Razgovory - April 26, 2024, 11:04:09 AM

Part of me says I smell more of the Unbiased Katie sorts.
But it could also be a self aware but largely genuinely felt joke that helps earn a few dollars and builds publicity.

Probably neither as the first one hold opinions of Jews roughly the same as Palestinians.

[(though I have less sympathy for someone trying to provoke something to generate content)]

#79

Off the Record / Re: Brexit and the waning days...

Last post by Tamas - April 26, 2024, 10:53:52 AM

And I think the role of the police is slightly difficult with protests and it is about balancing rights. It is absolutely right that people are able to protest on Palestine and the police protect that right; it would also be absolutely right for there to be counter-protesters and it would be for the police to place those groups in different areas to make sure that it doesn't escalate. That's not what's happened but, similarly, while people have a right to protest other people have a right to go about their lives doing what they want to do (though I have less sympathy for someone trying to provoke something to generate content) - and I think the police need to support that as long as it's not disruptive or likely to cause a risk to public order.

Isn't that pretty much the definition of protest? Most protests, at least?

More importantly, in this case, the very point of the Jewish guy's counter-protest was to test whether the crowd can tolerate a Jewish person in their ranks. Of course he and his fellows would had filmed it if something happened, what's the point of being abused/beaten up to prove a point if you can't prove it?

#80

Off the Record / Re: Brexit and the waning days...

Last post by Josquius - April 26, 2024, 10:48:04 AM

On policing interesting IFS paper flagged by John Burn-Murdoch, which feels like a useful example of 90% of policy in the UK in the last 15 years.

As part of austerity 70% of police stations in London were closed. This was also part of Cressida Dick's move to a more "US-style" policing of police in cars and vans responding.

Anyway the paper shows that violent and serious crime increased in areas near the closed stations, there were lower deterrence and clearance rates (the two things the police are supposed to do) and reduced reporting of non-violent crimes. This disproportionately affected the poor.

In addition, the policy provided a short term cost-saving from closing stations. But in order to fix the problems above (and just get back to where you were before the closures) they estimate you'd need to hire about 15-20,000 more police which would be significantly more expensive.

It's long Osborne. Cut the easy spending, only to cause negative consequences that will be far more expensive to fix than the initial saving.

And when its another party in government's problem/can be blamed on local government