Recent posts

#21

Off the Record / Re: Brexit and the waning days...

Last post by Sheilbh - May 10, 2024, 06:24:44 PM

Yeah, Sheilbh - I think you (or maybe the Tory think-tankers you're talking about) are overstating what Poilievre is offering the younger generation on housing. It's mostly "housing sucks and that's Trudeau's fault, amirite" and "insofar as there's a housing crisis, how about we solve it by applying vague right wing generalities. Also woke Trudeau sucks and the cost of living crisis is his fault; it'll be totally different if you vote for us!"

For that to work for the UK Tories it'll require a Labour government in power for a while while that crisis continues unabated.

Yeah I think that's fair. But I'd say that's inevitable whenever lessons from politics in one country are then "learned from" in another - the context for its reception is always going to be different. But also politics isn't (and has never been) about policy and I think what Poilievre suggested was political vindication for that group of nerds.

These are on the centre-right libertarian-ish think tankers who have fantastically detailed policy ideas about how to fix planning and build more housing but also that fixing planning helps deal with the biggest supply side constraint on the British economy (and I'm persuaded on some points and dubious on others). Their policy argument is wildly involved in the Town and Country Planning Act 1947 and the Green Belt etc. But what Poilievre showed wasn't a policy solution (he's not in power) but that you could make that argument from the right, it wouldn't necessarily blow up your existing base and it could attract new voters. That actually it could be a winning political issue that creates the conditions that allow you to implement those policies. They already had this agenda but it helps convince Tory world that maybe there's a political agenda there - and I think it's also partly why, in the last year or so, Starmer has gone in so much on planning as a big issue. The policy agenda is there (and obviously will be worlds away from Canada's), what Poilievre shows is that there may be votes in making the argument and maybe how to do it.

And having said all of that - this government with an 80 seat majority tried planning reform, had to back down and have no made things worse because of a backbench revolt. I think it is a very challenging issue that will cost a lot of political capital. So whether Labour can succeed on it probably depends on how big a majority they have - and who Starmer is and if he believes it's key to his growth goal. A lot comes to which reading of Starmer is right - because if the naive and mugged by reality reading is correct then he might drop planning reform at the first touch of opposition, if the ruthless reading is right then he might do it. But I think there is a possibility that Labour fails.

Also having said all of that and on the other hand (and slightly separate from the Poilievre/planning thing) I also think there's a real possibility Starmer might be lucky. The Tories have raised taxes to record levels, the IMF projection is not outstanding for the UK but is solid (and not far off Starmer's goal of fastest growth in the G7) - and it wouldn't take much in the global economy for that to look better (I think of the BofE Chief Economist noting there were no surprises in the data this quarter for the first time since covid):

I think there's a non-trivial possibility that some of the growth and spending constraints that currently dominate might be easier than we currently expect which makes everything a little bit easier in politics.

Edit: Obviously I'd add that Labour could fail catastrophically. It could be a one term government. And because of that risk, I would rather the Tory faction inspired by Poilievre and banging on about housing and planning are there to take advantage, not the one wondering if they should try to merge with Farage-ism.  I might not agree with them but I think they're dealing with real issues and wanting to fix them. As I say I get that from a Canadian perspective he's primarily seen through the populism lens - that's not how he's been received on the right here because, bluntly, we don't need a vision from overseas of what right wing populism looks like. We have it and that faction is already pretty developed.

I'm just hoping voters are smart enough to recognise this and judge the next government (assuming it's non tory) accordingly

I don't think voters are particularly kind in their judgements of current governments. But I also think they have pretty long memories. I think I remember Cecil Parkinson or some other Tory grandee, saying in the 2005 election that fundamentally voters hadn't forgotten Black Wednesday and I think in a large part in 2017 and 19 voters hadn't forgotten the financial crisis. I think voters will remember the cost of living crisis (broadly no more the Tories fault than Canada's is Trudeau's), and the perception of what went on with Truss (I think she was a disaster but there's a lot going on there). I think the same goes for the Winter of Discontent and other examples to.

I don't think they judge the government kindly but I think (unless they really fuck it up) they don't move on from the crisis of the opposition's last period of government quickly.

#22

Off the Record / Re: The China Thread

Last post by Sheilbh - May 10, 2024, 06:13:12 PM

See, China always lies   

But these dogs have been observed by Western canine nerds looking at satellite images

#23

Off the Record / Re: The Off Topic Topic

Last post by Jacob - May 10, 2024, 05:03:05 PM

Interesting

#24

Off the Record / Re: The Off Topic Topic

Last post by Savonarola - May 10, 2024, 02:51:40 PM

I learned that words in the romance languages that begin with Gu are most likely Germanic in origin and are derived from words that began with a W in the original language.  For instance whatever is Visigothic or Frankish for "War" become "Guerra" and "Guerre."  English will sometimes have both the Germanic as well as the Romance form; but the words will have somewhat different meanings:  Warden/Guardian, Ward/Guard, Warranty/Guarantee. 

#25

Off the Record / Re: The China Thread

Last post by HVC - May 10, 2024, 02:47:06 PM

See, China always lies   

#26

Off the Record / Re: The China Thread

Last post by Savonarola - May 10, 2024, 02:46:17 PM

Chinese zoo dyes chow chows to look like 'panda dogs'

#27

Off the Record / Re: What are you listening to?

Last post by Savonarola - May 10, 2024, 02:40:16 PM

The New York Dolls - The New York Dolls (1973)

No, I don't think it would actually be a crime to fall in love with Frankenstein; although you may want to check your state and municipal law.

Three chords, no talent, the New York Dolls were punk before we had a word for it.  Unfortunately, at the time they got lumped in with the Glam movement (largely because of the way they dressed) and I have my doubts a lot of Mark Bolan's fans would appreciate this. 

I came across a factoid that they were named both the best new band and worst new band in the readers poll of Creem magazine.  They do sound like they're carrying on the torch for Iggy Pop and the Stooges or the MC5; but at the same time they seem too weird for Detroit.

#28

Off the Record / Re: Brexit and the waning days...

Last post by Josquius - May 10, 2024, 02:36:11 PM

Yeah, Sheilbh - I think you (or maybe the Tory think-tankers you're talking about) are overstating what Poilievre is offering the younger generation on housing. It's mostly "housing sucks and that's Trudeau's fault, amirite" and "insofar as there's a housing crisis, how about we solve it by applying vague right wing generalities. Also woke Trudeau sucks and the cost of living crisis is his fault; it'll be totally different if you vote for us!"

For that to work for the UK Tories it'll require a Labour government in power for a while while that crisis continues unabated.

Which I expect they are planning for.
They've written off the next 5 years as lost to them and are actively salting the earth to make it as painful as possible for labour.
As it really seems the best a government can do for the immediate future is stop things declining quite so hard. Years of under investment is stating to really blow up and basically everything on a national level that can be privatised has already been sold.
I'm just hoping voters are smart enough to recognise this and judge the next government (assuming it's non tory) accordingly

#29

Off the Record / Re: Israel-Hamas War 2023

Last post by Josquius - May 10, 2024, 02:32:55 PM

This is just sort of an aside.  My 10 year old was kind of interested in conspiracy theories.  He asked me once "what do you think the biggest conspiracy theory in the world is".

I think he expected me to say flat earth, or moon landings were fake, or something "fun".

Instead I had to answer "that Jews secretly control the world".

Now to our kids credit (or how he's been raised) I don't think he's ever heard of such a thing.  But sadly though I don't think he's ever met a jewish person, which is maybe just an Edmonton thing.  Jewish population in Winnipeg growing up was pretty significant.

My first introduction to Jews as a thing that actually exists in the modern west and anti - semitism was South Park.
That I'm aware of I can't remember ever meeting a Jewish person before then. They just existed as some vague thing in the history books from Ww2.
I really don't think my experience in this is too unusual.
And I grew up not too far from one of the biggest heredi communities around.

[(after a heavy emigration tax and severe limits to the amount of money that could be taken from the country.)]

#30

Off the Record / Re: Israel-Hamas War 2023

Last post by Savonarola - May 10, 2024, 02:24:54 PM

Before 1941, the German government encouraged Jewish emigration (after a heavy emigration tax and severe limits to the amount of money that could be taken from the country.)

That doesn't sound like a set of policies one would enact to encourage emigration 

Fair, they had other policies that encouraged emmigration.  Knowing Languish I knew someone was going to bring up the emigration tax if I didn't.