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Russo-Ukrainian War 2014-23 and Invasion

Started by mongers, August 06, 2014, 03:12:53 PM

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alfred russel

Quote from: PDH on September 24, 2022, 04:22:11 PMAccording to one report I read this morning, the US has been telling Putin just what will happen if they use a nuke.

I feel like Dr. Strangelove in the movie exasperated that the russians didn't tell anyone they had a doomsday device, but that is a message we are going with, that should be delivered in plain light of day from the white house briefing room in unequivocal and stark terms. That way it isn't just the russian senior leadership that knows what is going on, but every russian in the military as well. And you aren't putting your credibility at risk to just the russian senior leadership, but also the entire world--it reduces the chance you are bluffing.
They who can give up essential liberty to obtain a little temporary safety, deserve neither liberty nor safety.

There's a fine line between salvation and drinking poison in the jungle.

I'm embarrassed. I've been making the mistake of associating with you. It won't happen again. :)
-garbon, February 23, 2014

Legbiter

Quote from: Iormlund on September 24, 2022, 03:29:15 PMPlus, if NATO doesn't respond in some kind to a nuclear strike everyone and their mother is going to get nukes.

The Icelandic nuclear weapons program will only use renewable energy in it's construction.  -_-
Posted using 100% recycled electrons.

HVC

Is first strike even really a thing anymore? I'm sure even Russia can detect incoming nukes and launch before getting hit.
Being lazy is bad; unless you still get what you want, then it's called "patience".
Hubris must be punished. Severely.

HVC

Quote from: Legbiter on September 24, 2022, 04:52:48 PM
Quote from: Iormlund on September 24, 2022, 03:29:15 PMPlus, if NATO doesn't respond in some kind to a nuclear strike everyone and their mother is going to get nukes.

The Icelandic nuclear weapons program will only use renewable energy in it's construction.  -_-

Geothermo nukes?  :hmm:
Being lazy is bad; unless you still get what you want, then it's called "patience".
Hubris must be punished. Severely.

PJL

Quote from: alfred russel on September 24, 2022, 04:47:43 PMYou are giving up a chance of a first strike on the hope Putin backs down on using a nuke in the face of an explicit threat.

I don't care if Putin backs down or not. It doesn't matter. All that matter is our response. And as long as we communicate what our response will be with regard to nuclear weapons, then it's up to Putin to start WW3. History has shown that pre-emptive responses to solve a problem turns out to be worse than the original problem.

alfred russel

Quote from: HVC on September 24, 2022, 05:00:01 PMIs first strike even really a thing anymore? I'm sure even Russia can detect incoming nukes and launch before getting hit.

Does any of their shit work as designed and in an efficient manner? Yeah they can get some missiles off; I'm not saying we wouldn't get our hair mussed. But I do say no more than ten to twenty million killed, tops. Depending on the breaks.
They who can give up essential liberty to obtain a little temporary safety, deserve neither liberty nor safety.

There's a fine line between salvation and drinking poison in the jungle.

I'm embarrassed. I've been making the mistake of associating with you. It won't happen again. :)
-garbon, February 23, 2014

alfred russel

Quote from: PJL on September 24, 2022, 05:06:48 PM
Quote from: alfred russel on September 24, 2022, 04:47:43 PMYou are giving up a chance of a first strike on the hope Putin backs down on using a nuke in the face of an explicit threat.

I don't care if Putin backs down or not. It doesn't matter. All that matter is our response. And as long as we communicate what our response will be with regard to nuclear weapons, then it's up to Putin to start WW3. History has shown that pre-emptive responses to solve a problem turns out to be worse than the original problem.

Russia and I guess Belarus are on their own...their conventional forces can't handle Ukraine. In the event of all out war between Russia and nato, we fire our nukes and they try to fire theirs...and that is basically the end of the scenario. I don't think nato deciding to nuke russia counts as WWIII, though opinions may diverge.

I don't favor a pre-emptive attack. The scenario being discussed is going to war with russia over their use of nuclear weapons in ukraine. My perspective is that:

a) in such case, we should not go to war with Russia,
b) if we do, we should go all out nuclear at the start with as little warning as possible

They who can give up essential liberty to obtain a little temporary safety, deserve neither liberty nor safety.

There's a fine line between salvation and drinking poison in the jungle.

I'm embarrassed. I've been making the mistake of associating with you. It won't happen again. :)
-garbon, February 23, 2014

Tamas

QuoteMargarita Simonyan, the hawkish head of propaganda outlet RT, complained that military offices across the country were rounding up those who were not supposed to be called up. "It's as if they were tasked by Kyiv to do that," she said, in a rare criticism of authorities.

What's hopefully happening is that the regions were given quotas but no clear instruction on which strata exactly to conscript, so the local authorities showing the levels of morale made evident in the army, just copy-pasted the first X names off their list to be done the quickest way possible.

Admiral Yi

All of the US's possible responses to a nuke are terrible.

If someone held a gun to my head and said I had to choose, I would publicly announce tit for tat.  You send one into Ukraine, we send one into Russia.

grumbler

The United States and NATO don't need to use nuclear weapons in response to the Russian use of nuclear weapons.  What they can do is announce that the use of nuclear weapons in Ukraine will be considered an attack on NATO (because of the dire effect such an attack would have on European countries) and that NATO will respond with an all-out conventional attack on Russia's ability to make war, wherever such capabilities are found.

The West will not launch a preemptive strategic nuclear strike on Russia, no matter how fevered the dreams of hillbilly contrarian mountain climbers get.  And it does not need to.  The Russian leadership knows full well that Russia is helpless in the face of purely conventional western arms, and they know full well that their own strategic arms are crippled by corruption.
The future is all around us, waiting, in moments of transition, to be born in moments of revelation. No one knows the shape of that future or where it will take us. We know only that it is always born in pain.   -G'Kar

Bayraktar!

grumbler

Quote from: Admiral Yi on September 24, 2022, 06:07:49 PMAll of the US's possible responses to a nuke are terrible.

If someone held a gun to my head and said I had to choose, I would publicly announce tit for tat.  You send one into Ukraine, we send one into Russia.

The West doesn't have many tactical nukes.  They are obsolete except for terrorist purposes.
The future is all around us, waiting, in moments of transition, to be born in moments of revelation. No one knows the shape of that future or where it will take us. We know only that it is always born in pain.   -G'Kar

Bayraktar!

Jacob

Quote from: grumbler on September 24, 2022, 06:41:24 PMThe United States and NATO don't need to use nuclear weapons in response to the Russian use of nuclear weapons.  What they can do is announce that the use of nuclear weapons in Ukraine will be considered an attack on NATO (because of the dire effect such an attack would have on European countries) and that NATO will respond with an all-out conventional attack on Russia's ability to make war, wherever such capabilities are found.

The West will not launch a preemptive strategic nuclear strike on Russia, no matter how fevered the dreams of hillbilly contrarian mountain climbers get.  And it does not need to.  The Russian leadership knows full well that Russia is helpless in the face of purely conventional western arms, and they know full well that their own strategic arms are crippled by corruption.

How likely do you think it is that Russia will resort to nukes if NATO destroys their armed forces conventionally?

And do you expect nuclear launch sites to be acceptable targets for conventional NATO attacks?

jimmy olsen

Russia's conventional armed forces have basically been destroyed already and they haven't used nukes yet.
It is far better for the truth to tear my flesh to pieces, then for my soul to wander through darkness in eternal damnation.

Jet: So what kind of woman is she? What's Julia like?
Faye: Ordinary. The kind of beautiful, dangerous ordinary that you just can't leave alone.
Jet: I see.
Faye: Like an angel from the underworld. Or a devil from Paradise.
--------------------------------------------
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grumbler

Quote from: Jacob on September 24, 2022, 10:35:29 PMHow likely do you think it is that Russia will resort to nukes if NATO destroys their armed forces conventionally?

Highly unlikely.  At that point, what's the use?  They could hold out for some sort of settlement, unless they use nukes, in which case there won't be a Russia to surrender.  They know that.

QuoteAnd do you expect nuclear launch sites to be acceptable targets for conventional NATO attacks?

If they have launched a tactical nuke, then I'd expect any tacnuc storage sites and potential launch site to be hammered flat, but their strategic forces would remain inviolate.  Can't put them is a "use them or lose them" situation.
The future is all around us, waiting, in moments of transition, to be born in moments of revelation. No one knows the shape of that future or where it will take us. We know only that it is always born in pain.   -G'Kar

Bayraktar!

Zanza

Interesting thread on possible demographic impact on Russia from the mobilization and emigration of the 20-35 year old cohort of men. More devastating than Covid for Russia.

https://twitter.com/ChrisO_wiki/status/1573962833049665538