Russo-Ukrainian War 2014-23 and Invasion

[viper37]

Anti Putin protests in Moscow. Surprisingly the kids aren't too keen on being called up. This might be Putin's biggest error yet.

Well, 1337 new recruits were just found.
https://www.france24.com/en/europe/20220921-i-m-scared-hundreds-arrested-at-anti-mobilisation-protests-across-russia

[Valmy]

Does anyone know how one becomes a reservist in Russia?  Voluntary or automatic after serving?

Automatic after serving.  True for the US as well.

The Russian difference is that there is no time limit to serving in the reserves, except age.

Under "The Three Years Law" every able bodied Frenchman was conscripted for 28 years, 3 years of active service then 25 in the reserves. So you were free to go at age 48.

Though I suspect there are a lot more ways to draft dodge in modern Russia.

[FunkMonk]

Does anyone have reliable numbers of Russian KIA since the war started? Just curious.

[Richard Hakluyt]

The surviving Azovstal defenders - including commanders - have apparently released as part of a prisoner exchange for Medvedchuk (and some others)

The British prisoners (and some other foreign nationals) were part of this exchange :

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-62988234

The deal was brokered by Saudi Arabia apparently.

[Josquius]

Anti Putin protests in Moscow. Surprisingly the kids aren't too keen on being called up. This might be Putin's biggest error yet.

Well, 1337 new recruits were just found.
https://www.france24.com/en/europe/20220921-i-m-scared-hundreds-arrested-at-anti-mobilisation-protests-across-russia

It's sad. You keep seeing people online calling for Russians to protest and when they do they're swiftly scooped up with no impact on the regime. Slice by slice opposition is removed.

[Zoupa]

Fuck them. Bucha and Mariupol and Izyum: not one russian in the streets. Mobilisation: now they wake up. Fuck them all. May they rot in that hellhole of a country.

[The Brain]

It's very important that the West avoids buying Russian propaganda that this is Putin's war. It's Russia's war. It isn't Putin firing guns and rockets in Ukraine, it's ordinary Russians. It isn't Putin who  has gone to war (de facto or de jure) against Ukraine, it's Russia. If the next Russian regime withdraws from the war then Russian propaganda will make every effort to make Ukraine "Putin's war". And Russian propaganda is the last thing anyone should listen to.

[Josquius]

It's very important that the West avoids buying Russian propaganda that this is Putin's war. It's Russia's war. It isn't Putin firing guns and rockets in Ukraine, it's ordinary Russians. It isn't Putin who  has gone to war (de facto or de jure) against Ukraine, it's Russia. If the next Russian regime withdraws from the war then Russian propaganda will make every effort to make Ukraine "Putin's war". And Russian propaganda is the last thing anyone should listen to.

Eh?
I don't think thats Russian propaganda you've been reading there. At the least not state-sanctioned propeganda.
Painting this as Putins war is entirely the right thing to do. To say it is a war against the Russian people is exactly what Putin and co want. This also ensures an end to the war lies further away than ever and greatly increases the risk of further escalation.
It should be clear to the Russians- Putins head and no Russian troops anywhere in Ukraine then we can get back to business as normal.
This business as normal of course being one where hopefully the west remains smart enough to continue to switch away from gas.
Its this "Putin isn't the enemy, Russia is" stuff which I'd say has far more vibes of Russian propeganda.

[The Brain]

It's very important that the West avoids buying Russian propaganda that this is Putin's war. It's Russia's war. It isn't Putin firing guns and rockets in Ukraine, it's ordinary Russians. It isn't Putin who  has gone to war (de facto or de jure) against Ukraine, it's Russia. If the next Russian regime withdraws from the war then Russian propaganda will make every effort to make Ukraine "Putin's war". And Russian propaganda is the last thing anyone should listen to.

Eh?
I don't think thats Russian propaganda you've been reading there. At the least not state-sanctioned propeganda.
Painting this as Putins war is entirely the right thing to do. To say it is a war against the Russian people is exactly what Putin and co want. This also ensures an end to the war lies further away than ever and greatly increases the risk of further escalation.
It should be clear to the Russians- Putins head and no Russian troops anywhere in Ukraine then we can get back to business as normal.
This business as normal of course being one where hopefully the west remains smart enough to continue to switch away from gas.
Its this "Putin isn't the enemy, Russia is" stuff which I'd say has far more vibes of Russian propeganda.

I was primarily talking about post-war Russian propaganda.

[Barrister]

Lots of indications from Twitter that Russia's "partial mobilization" means near-total mobilization in ethnic republics and the far east, but very limited in the Muscovite heartland.

The "Russia is the last colonial power" crowd getting more evidence for their claim...

[OttoVonBismarck]

I don't imagine anything big in the near term, but I have to wonder how this affects Russia's integrity long term. I've always assumed a big part of the reason it has held all the republics that have non-Russian ethnic populations is due to how Moscow has (usually, but not always) kept a pretty light touch on them--even during the USSR era they were often treated lighter than ethnic Slavic areas.

[Jacob]

Lots of indications from Twitter that Russia's "partial mobilization" means near-total mobilization in ethnic republics and the far east, but very limited in the Muscovite heartland.

The "Russia is the last colonial power" crowd getting more evidence for their claim...

IMO Russia is absolutely a colonial power, but it's not the last one. There's China too (Tibet, Xinjiang).

[Jacob]

Recruitment isn't going overly well in some places in Dagestan: https://twitter.com/WhereisRussia/status/1572926018742099968

The female is clearly an army recruiter and drinks the Russian propaganda cool-aid say that her some has been in Ukraine since February that it's their way of giving back to the homeland, they tell her this is all politics she can go and serve also she tries to guilt them into...

...

Asking if they are educated and don't they watch TV to see what's really going on? They laugh, she asks if they have kids they say yes and she asks aren't you receiving $ from the government for the kids he laughs as says yeah 100 rubles ($2)

...

Another great sound bite...why should we fight? For your future - they laugh at what future

Someone else made the point that Russia is going to have a hard time paying for all these recruits - both pay for them, but also to equip them. The Russian economy is apparently not super hot right now.

[Jacob]

Fuck them. Bucha and Mariupol and Izyum: not one russian in the streets. Mobilisation: now they wake up. Fuck them all. May they rot in that hellhole of a country.

I'm not going to argue about whether you - or anyone else - should have any sympathy for anti-mobilization protestors in Russia. But I think we can agree that at this point, any kind of internal instability in Russia is a net good even if none of the actors are appealing?

[Barrister]

Someone else made the point that Russia is going to have a hard time paying for all these recruits - both pay for them, but also to equip them. The Russian economy is apparently not super hot right now.

When Putin was trying to get more-or-less willing volunteers he had to offer really good wages to agree to go to Ukraine.

Now that they're conscripting people they don't have to worry about the pay.

Eqipping and training them though...