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#91
Off the Record / Re: Russo-Ukrainian War 2014-1...
Last post by alfred russel - September 24, 2022, 05:22:44 PM
Quote from: PJL on September 24, 2022, 05:06:48 PM
Quote from: alfred russel on September 24, 2022, 04:47:43 PMYou are giving up a chance of a first strike on the hope Putin backs down on using a nuke in the face of an explicit threat.

I don't care if Putin backs down or not. It doesn't matter. All that matter is our response. And as long as we communicate what our response will be with regard to nuclear weapons, then it's up to Putin to start WW3. History has shown that pre-emptive responses to solve a problem turns out to be worse than the original problem.

Russia and I guess Belarus are on their own...their conventional forces can't handle Ukraine. In the event of all out war between Russia and nato, we fire our nukes and they try to fire theirs...and that is basically the end of the scenario. I don't think nato deciding to nuke russia counts as WWIII, though opinions may diverge.

I don't favor a pre-emptive attack. The scenario being discussed is going to war with russia over their use of nuclear weapons in ukraine. My perspective is that:

a) in such case, we should not go to war with Russia,
b) if we do, we should go all out nuclear at the start with as little warning as possible

#92
Off the Record / Re: The Off Topic Topic
Last post by Habbaku - September 24, 2022, 05:15:12 PM
Quote from: Valmy on September 24, 2022, 11:53:42 AMI completely agree most all of that, the Northeast is cold in more ways than one  :ph34r:

But I don't get the 'Hard R' states of the Southeast. Lots of Southern accents are non-rhotic.

Man, I really hope you and the others aren't joking about not understanding what that means.
#93
Off the Record / Re: Russo-Ukrainian War 2014-1...
Last post by alfred russel - September 24, 2022, 05:13:19 PM
Quote from: HVC on September 24, 2022, 05:00:01 PMIs first strike even really a thing anymore? I'm sure even Russia can detect incoming nukes and launch before getting hit.

Does any of their shit work as designed and in an efficient manner? Yeah they can get some missiles off; I'm not saying we wouldn't get our hair mussed. But I do say no more than ten to twenty million killed, tops. Depending on the breaks.
#94
Off the Record / Re: Russo-Ukrainian War 2014-1...
Last post by PJL - September 24, 2022, 05:06:48 PM
Quote from: alfred russel on September 24, 2022, 04:47:43 PMYou are giving up a chance of a first strike on the hope Putin backs down on using a nuke in the face of an explicit threat.

I don't care if Putin backs down or not. It doesn't matter. All that matter is our response. And as long as we communicate what our response will be with regard to nuclear weapons, then it's up to Putin to start WW3. History has shown that pre-emptive responses to solve a problem turns out to be worse than the original problem.
#95
Off the Record / Re: Russo-Ukrainian War 2014-1...
Last post by HVC - September 24, 2022, 05:01:46 PM
Quote from: Legbiter on September 24, 2022, 04:52:48 PM
Quote from: Iormlund on September 24, 2022, 03:29:15 PMPlus, if NATO doesn't respond in some kind to a nuclear strike everyone and their mother is going to get nukes.

The Icelandic nuclear weapons program will only use renewable energy in it's construction.  -_-

Geothermo nukes?  :hmm:
#96
Off the Record / Re: Russo-Ukrainian War 2014-1...
Last post by HVC - September 24, 2022, 05:00:01 PM
Is first strike even really a thing anymore? I'm sure even Russia can detect incoming nukes and launch before getting hit.
#97
Off the Record / Re: Russo-Ukrainian War 2014-1...
Last post by Legbiter - September 24, 2022, 04:52:48 PM
Quote from: Iormlund on September 24, 2022, 03:29:15 PMPlus, if NATO doesn't respond in some kind to a nuclear strike everyone and their mother is going to get nukes.

The Icelandic nuclear weapons program will only use renewable energy in it's construction.  -_-
#98
Off the Record / Re: Russo-Ukrainian War 2014-1...
Last post by alfred russel - September 24, 2022, 04:52:05 PM
Quote from: PDH on September 24, 2022, 04:22:11 PMAccording to one report I read this morning, the US has been telling Putin just what will happen if they use a nuke.

I feel like Dr. Strangelove in the movie exasperated that the russians didn't tell anyone they had a doomsday device, but that is a message we are going with, that should be delivered in plain light of day from the white house briefing room in unequivocal and stark terms. That way it isn't just the russian senior leadership that knows what is going on, but every russian in the military as well. And you aren't putting your credibility at risk to just the russian senior leadership, but also the entire world--it reduces the chance you are bluffing.
#99
Off the Record / Re: Russo-Ukrainian War 2014-1...
Last post by alfred russel - September 24, 2022, 04:47:43 PM
Quote from: PJL on September 24, 2022, 04:08:42 PM
Quote from: alfred russel on September 24, 2022, 04:00:33 PMIf we have decided that any nuclear weapons use in Ukraine means we respond with nuclear weapons against Russia, while it is madness to have not communicated that before the war, the best decision is not to communicate it now.

Obviously russian leadership knows that nuclear weapons use in Ukraine is massively risky and it will be a pariah state in the best case scenario. But if it has decided that is the only way out, and if it understands NATO will respond with a nuclear strike, Russia could easily strike first against us. Better for us to keep our cards close to our chests and if they launch a nuclear weapon in Ukraine, we strike first.

On the contrary, we should be doing the opposite, we should absolutely tell Putin what the response should be if he launches a tactical nuke. Because it will actually make things safer by letting him know what the outcome is going to be beforehand. It is the uncertainty that is the bigger factor in increaseing the danger, not the nuclear missles on their own.

You are giving up a chance of a first strike on the hope Putin backs down on using a nuke in the face of an explicit threat.

As someone sitting very close to a military base almost certain to be targeted, I'd prefer not to experience all out nuclear war, and don't think a country of ~40 million people is worth escalating to that level in a world of 8 billion. But if we are going to do so, i'll prefer to take my chances with a first strike succeeding rather than Putin being intimidated into folding his hand.
#100
Off the Record / Re: Iranian Protests
Last post by Berkut - September 24, 2022, 04:30:01 PM
Using the term "generally" (used with consideration, and twice for that matter) is a concession to the fact that of course there are exceptions.

But I get that you can't pass up a chance to shit on Americans. Luckily I won't assume that is because you are Canadian - you are just an asshole.